Abstract: The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central
bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the
FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on macroeconomic
stabilization and to explore how policy can be designed to minimize
these effects. During particularly severe contractions, open-market
operations alone may be insufficient to restore equilibrium; some
other stimulus is needed. Abstracting from such rare events, if
policy follows the Taylor rule and targets a zero inflation rate,
there is a significant increase in the variability of output but not
inflation. However, a simple modification to the Taylor rule yields a
dramatic reduction in the detrimental effects of the zero bound.
Keywords: Monetary policy, macroeconomic models, liquidity trap
Full paper (679 KB PDF)
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Last update: September 27, 1999
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