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Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on January 29-30, 2008.

Chart 1: Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2008 through 2010. Actual data for years 2003 through 2007. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP Growth
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 - - -
Upper end of range - - - - - 2.2 3.2 3.2
Upper end of central tendency - - - - - 2.0 2.7 3.0
Lower end of central tendency - - - - - 1.3 2.1 2.5
Lower end of range - - - - - 1.0 1.8 2.2

Unemployment Rate
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 - - -
Upper end of range - - - - - 5.5 5.7 5.4
Upper end of central tendency - - - - - 5.3 5.3 5.1
Lower end of central tendency - - - - - 5.2 5.0 4.9
Lower end of range - - - - - 5.0 4.9 4.7

PCE Inflation
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 1.9 3.1 3.2 1.9 3.4 - - -
Upper end of range - - - - - 2.8 2.3 2.0
Upper end of central tendency - - - - - 2.4 2.0 2.0
Lower end of central tendency - - - - - 2.1 1.7 1.7
Lower end of range - - - - - 2.0 1.7 1.5

Core PCE Inflation
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 - - -
Upper end of range - - - - - 2.3 2.2 2.0
Upper end of central tendency - - - - - 2.2 2.0 1.9
Lower end of central tendency - - - - - 2.0 1.7 1.7
Lower end of range - - - - - 1.9 1.7 1.4


Return to Chart 1

Chart 2(a): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP
Number of Participants
Projections 1.0-1.1 1.2-1.3 1.4-1.5 1.6-1.7 1.8-1.9 2.0-2.1 2.2-2.3 2.4-2.5 2.6-2.7 2.8-2.9 3.0-3.1 3.2-3.3
2008
   January 2 3 4 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
   October 0 0 0 3 1 3 4 4 2 0 0 0
2009
   January 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 5 3 1 0 1
   October 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 4 1 0 0
2010
   January 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 0 3 1
   October 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 6 0 0 0

Unemployment Rate
Number of Participants
Projections 4.6-4.7 4.8-4.9 5.0-5.1 5.2-5.3 5.4-5.5 5.6-5.7
2008
   January 0 0 1 15 1 0
   October 1 13 3 0 0 0
2009
   January 0 1 8 5 2 1
   October 2 12 3 0 0 0
2010
   January 1 7 7 1 1 0
   October 4 10 3 0 0 0

Return to Chart2(a)

Chart 2(b): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4 2.5-2.6 2.7-2.8
2008
   January 0 0 2 6 6 2 1
   October 0 7 5 4 1 0 0
2009
   January 0 9 5 1 2 0 0
   October 2 9 4 2 0 0 0
2010
   January 3 7 7 0 0 0 0
   October 4 6 7 0 0 0 0

Core PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 1.3-1.4 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4
2008
   January 0 0 0 6 9 2
   October 0 0 9 8 0 0
2009
   January 0 0 5 9 3 0
   October 0 2 9 6 0 0
2010
   January 1 2 7 7 0 0
   October 0 4 8 5 0 0

Return to Chart(b)