The recent slowdown in high-tech equipment price declines and some implications for business investment and labor productivity, Accessible Data

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Real private nonresidential fixed investment

Note: Calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA, also commonly referred to as NIPAs) data.

Year-to-year percent change

Date High-tech equipment Software All other nonresidential fixed investment
1975Q1 3.72 25.52 -11.68
1975Q2 -0.23 24.15 -13.48
1975Q3 -7.28 14.88 -10.28
1975Q4 -8.71 6.21 -5.77
1976Q1 -0.76 0.00 2.38
1976Q2 11.20 5.28 5.09
1976Q3 19.60 11.92 5.16
1976Q4 29.42 17.54 4.67
1977Q1 27.73 11.76 6.87
1977Q2 25.86 6.18 8.99
1977Q3 23.22 1.31 9.22
1977Q4 21.83 -1.39 10.89
1978Q1 26.59 7.28 6.51
1978Q2 31.85 14.23 11.70
1978Q3 33.58 22.58 13.06
1978Q4 31.00 29.76 13.47
1979Q1 28.99 28.35 15.68
1979Q2 18.47 26.39 7.27
1979Q3 17.74 23.72 6.88
1979Q4 17.89 20.57 3.28
1980Q1 17.84 19.30 1.82
1980Q2 17.68 17.29 -3.64
1980Q3 17.90 17.59 -6.30
1980Q4 13.20 17.84 -3.61
1981Q1 13.80 17.64 -2.60
1981Q2 16.02 16.69 5.26
1981Q3 14.55 15.36 7.58
1981Q4 18.02 15.45 7.17
1982Q1 11.85 19.60 2.10
1982Q2 2.30 19.35 -2.64
1982Q3 -1.37 15.08 -7.92
1982Q4 -7.62 8.58 -11.04
1983Q1 0.00 7.59 -11.21
1983Q2 13.85 12.18 -8.60
1983Q3 18.78 21.71 -1.46
1983Q4 33.28 29.90 5.48
1984Q1 27.75 28.93 12.62
1984Q2 28.23 26.65 17.12
1984Q3 28.34 24.66 15.52
1984Q4 23.89 25.85 11.23
1985Q1 18.19 24.28 9.67
1985Q2 12.71 23.13 6.57
1985Q3 5.82 16.35 2.78
1985Q4 3.92 12.66 2.66
1986Q1 7.31 11.66 -0.78
1986Q2 7.26 11.62 -5.13
1986Q3 7.24 12.69 -5.19
1986Q4 7.56 11.51 -6.26
1987Q1 3.17 12.12 -7.09
1987Q2 2.32 12.31 -1.95
1987Q3 8.84 14.79 1.49
1987Q4 3.26 16.58 1.23
1988Q1 8.32 17.44 4.23
1988Q2 11.18 18.05 3.82
1988Q3 7.71 19.54 1.65
1988Q4 9.52 21.53 3.11
1989Q1 9.59 25.09 3.91
1989Q2 9.47 28.18 2.56
1989Q3 10.18 30.57 4.81
1989Q4 9.63 31.10 1.62
1990Q1 7.73 26.70 1.86
1990Q2 1.25 22.05 0.07
1990Q3 -2.21 12.54 -0.91
1990Q4 -0.92 11.97 -1.93
1991Q1 -4.21 11.67 -5.39
1991Q2 0.15 11.56 -5.41
1991Q3 5.38 15.41 -8.73
1991Q4 6.99 14.33 -7.27
1992Q1 11.35 15.57 -6.26
1992Q2 14.84 17.08 -2.42
1992Q3 17.30 18.64 -0.01
1992Q4 14.57 18.49 4.28
1993Q1 16.42 15.73 6.02
1993Q2 12.19 12.66 5.48
1993Q3 12.59 11.08 4.49
1993Q4 13.95 8.29 5.81
1994Q1 14.21 9.43 5.85
1994Q2 14.67 10.01 5.08
1994Q3 11.17 9.99 7.20
1994Q4 15.18 9.87 6.60
1995Q1 18.21 8.21 9.76
1995Q2 21.91 8.89 7.95
1995Q3 20.10 10.18 6.76
1995Q4 21.33 12.55 3.56
1996Q1 21.18 15.41 1.63
1996Q2 19.67 16.74 4.25
1996Q3 23.65 17.47 6.77
1996Q4 18.89 19.46 8.44
1997Q1 17.36 26.89 7.68
1997Q2 18.97 28.30 6.21
1997Q3 22.69 30.88 6.88
1997Q4 22.99 31.50 4.02
1998Q1 27.33 23.47 5.10
1998Q2 25.85 21.36 7.43
1998Q3 19.10 19.70 4.95
1998Q4 23.14 19.20 7.25
1999Q1 20.57 20.46 6.23
1999Q2 23.95 24.77 3.81
1999Q3 25.85 25.53 5.05
1999Q4 17.75 22.47 3.55
2000Q1 20.96 20.84 4.95
2000Q2 19.91 15.79 6.71
2000Q3 18.57 9.93 5.36
2000Q4 23.30 9.78 4.07
2001Q1 12.66 6.91 0.71
2001Q2 -0.09 1.69 -2.85
2001Q3 -6.53 0.28 -4.18
2001Q4 -9.31 -5.64 -6.67
2002Q1 -10.34 -5.50 -8.12
2002Q2 -5.59 -0.74 -9.02
2002Q3 -0.11 2.71 -10.03
2002Q4 -2.03 3.28 -7.39
2003Q1 3.41 4.68 -5.84
2003Q2 5.92 3.02 -0.90
2003Q3 9.99 6.39 1.29
2003Q4 18.08 13.19 2.08
2004Q1 13.31 12.05 1.34
2004Q2 14.14 11.60 0.99
2004Q3 8.98 8.88 3.72
2004Q4 4.75 7.90 6.01
2005Q1 7.84 6.98 9.07
2005Q2 6.76 8.91 7.71
2005Q3 9.76 6.31 6.16
2005Q4 10.10 3.51 4.09
2006Q1 14.93 4.22 6.51
2006Q2 13.60 2.84 6.81
2006Q3 12.75 3.85 5.86
2006Q4 10.61 5.63 6.35
2007Q1 9.85 7.02 3.43
2007Q2 10.12 6.18 4.54
2007Q3 9.59 5.63 5.28
2007Q4 16.47 5.26 5.48
2008Q1 8.87 6.01 4.48
2008Q2 7.87 6.09 1.05
2008Q3 0.60 5.29 -3.26
2008Q4 -14.35 2.40 -9.71
2009Q1 -16.62 -1.26 -17.84
2009Q2 -16.25 -0.69 -21.16
2009Q3 -7.03 0.03 -21.59
2009Q4 6.62 2.81 -18.78
2010Q1 12.36 1.27 -8.99
2010Q2 12.77 -1.67 -0.15
2010Q3 8.07 -1.71 5.80
2010Q4 6.84 -1.79 10.90
2011Q1 1.38 2.43 9.16
2011Q2 3.17 6.97 6.67
2011Q3 2.28 8.65 10.28
2011Q4 -0.44 9.53 11.05
2012Q1 6.19 7.62 12.49
2012Q2 2.68 6.83 11.79
2012Q3 0.04 4.74 6.21
2012Q4 3.96 3.41 3.63
2013Q1 1.10 5.33 2.31
2013Q2 3.34 1.50 1.67
2013Q3 6.34 2.74 2.46
2013Q4 1.49 2.81 5.68
2014Q1 -0.74 0.93 6.56
2014Q2 3.98 4.16 7.81
2014Q3 1.05 4.56 9.49
2014Q4 6.95 6.12 6.10

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Figure 2: Labor productivity and capital deepening

Note: Based on John G. Fernald, "A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity." FRBSF Working Paper 2012-19 (updated March 2014)

Capital deepening constructed with trend hours growth based on a centered 15-year moving average

Log growth rates

Date Labor Productivity Contribution of capital deepening:
High-tech equipment Software Other
1975-1994 1.73 0.31 0.10 0.26
1995-2004 3.05 0.51 0.23 0.45
2005-2009 1.96 0.28 0.15 0.46
2010-2014 0.91 0.12 0.09 0.33

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Figure 3: High-tech equipment prices

Note: Calculations based on BEA and NIPA data

Note: High-tech equipment refers to information processing equipment in the NIPAs

Percent change, annual rate

Date Quarterly inflation Five-year average inflation Counterfactual five-year average inflation
1990Q1 -3.29 -2.49  
1990Q2 -2.02 -2.36  
1990Q3 0.61 -2.11  
1990Q4 -0.43 -1.95  
1991Q1 -1.07 -1.69  
1991Q2 -4.01 -1.83  
1991Q3 -6.30 -2.36  
1991Q4 -4.29 -2.52  
1992Q1 -0.69 -2.22  
1992Q2 -5.95 -2.17  
1992Q3 -4.07 -2.08  
1992Q4 -5.48 -2.52  
1993Q1 -4.29 -2.78  
1993Q2 -6.00 -2.85  
1993Q3 -5.36 -3.00  
1993Q4 -5.32 -3.34  
1994Q1 -2.12 -3.46  
1994Q2 -3.29 -3.45  
1994Q3 -5.27 -3.61  
1994Q4 -7.16 -3.81  
1995Q1 -5.55 -3.93  
1995Q2 -5.24 -4.09  
1995Q3 -8.52 -4.54  
1995Q4 -9.98 -5.02  
1996Q1 -11.14 -5.53  
1996Q2 -12.99 -5.99  
1996Q3 -8.29 -6.09  
1996Q4 -8.30 -6.30  
1997Q1 -9.99 -6.76  
1997Q2 -9.77 -6.95  
1997Q3 -10.16 -7.25  
1997Q4 -10.83 -7.52  
1998Q1 -15.50 -8.10  
1998Q2 -14.16 -8.51  
1998Q3 -13.25 -8.91  
1998Q4 -12.60 -9.27  
1999Q1 -11.21 -9.71  
1999Q2 -10.84 -10.08  
1999Q3 -9.25 -10.27  
1999Q4 -6.70 -10.25  
2000Q1 -4.57 -10.21  
2000Q2 -5.91 -10.24  
2000Q3 -4.59 -10.05  
2000Q4 -5.75 -9.84  
2001Q1 -13.33 -9.95  
2001Q2 -8.18 -9.71  
2001Q3 -8.68 -9.73  
2001Q4 -8.35 -9.73  
2002Q1 -4.49 -9.47  
2002Q2 -4.99 -9.23  
2002Q3 -6.77 -9.06  
2002Q4 -7.13 -8.88  
2003Q1 -8.08 -8.49  
2003Q2 -5.75 -8.07  
2003Q3 -6.14 -7.70  
2003Q4 -7.13 -7.42  
2004Q1 -3.70 -7.04  
2004Q2 -3.34 -6.67  
2004Q3 -3.47 -6.38  
2004Q4 -3.68 -6.23  
2005Q1 -4.55 -6.23  
2005Q2 -5.19 -6.19  
2005Q3 -5.06 -6.22  
2005Q4 -5.37 -6.20  
2006Q1 -5.95 -5.81  
2006Q2 -4.99 -5.65  
2006Q3 -3.11 -5.37  
2006Q4 -1.45 -5.03  
2007Q1 -1.44 -4.88  
2007Q2 -2.63 -4.76  
2007Q3 -9.42 -4.90  
2007Q4 -9.70 -5.03  
2008Q1 -1.50 -4.70  
2008Q2 -2.60 -4.55  
2008Q3 -1.42 -4.31  
2008Q4 -2.62 -4.09  
2009Q1 -5.55 -4.18  
2009Q2 -5.10 -4.27  
2009Q3 -0.58 -4.13  
2009Q4 -3.11 -4.10 -4.10
2010Q1 -2.10 -3.98 -4.10
2010Q2 -0.59 -3.75 -4.10
2010Q3 -1.16 -3.56 -4.10
2010Q4 1.05 -3.24 -4.10
2011Q1 -0.09 -2.95 -4.10
2011Q2 -3.54 -2.87 -4.10
2011Q3 -3.18 -2.88 -4.10
2011Q4 -2.04 -2.90 -4.10
2012Q1 -1.01 -2.88 -4.10
2012Q2 -2.74 -2.89 -4.10
2012Q3 -1.40 -2.48 -4.10
2012Q4 -0.99 -2.03 -4.10
2013Q1 -1.08 -2.01 -4.10
2013Q2 -0.34 -1.89 -4.10
2013Q3 -0.52 -1.85 -4.10
2013Q4 -0.73 -1.75 -4.10
2014Q1 0.01 -1.47 -4.10
2014Q2 0.69 -1.18 -4.10
2014Q3 -0.18 -1.16 -4.10
2014Q4 -0.44 -1.03 -4.10

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Figure 4: High-tech equipment prices by category, five year average inflation

Note: Calculations based on BEA and NIPA data

Percent change, annual rate

Date Computers and peripheral equipment Communication equipment Other high-tech equipment
1990Q1 -11.19 0.41 3.27
1990Q2 -10.68 0.21 3.30
1990Q3 -10.08 0.17 3.45
1990Q4 -9.58 0.11 3.45
1991Q1 -8.78 0.26 3.21
1991Q2 -8.89 0.34 2.78
1991Q3 -10.21 0.14 2.64
1991Q4 -10.78 0.12 2.73
1992Q1 -9.63 -0.12 2.71
1992Q2 -9.33 -0.01 2.41
1992Q3 -9.41 0.06 2.69
1992Q4 -10.09 -0.27 2.34
1993Q1 -10.51 -0.52 2.21
1993Q2 -10.94 -0.21 2.12
1993Q3 -11.43 -0.14 2.10
1993Q4 -12.02 -0.32 1.85
1994Q1 -12.23 -0.35 1.73
1994Q2 -11.94 -0.56 1.65
1994Q3 -12.30 -0.70 1.66
1994Q4 -12.60 -0.93 1.57
1995Q1 -12.64 -1.14 1.49
1995Q2 -13.14 -1.12 1.58
1995Q3 -14.11 -1.28 1.52
1995Q4 -14.90 -1.42 1.21
1996Q1 -15.75 -1.58 0.96
1996Q2 -16.64 -1.77 0.91
1996Q3 -16.58 -1.76 0.73
1996Q4 -16.93 -1.59 0.50
1997Q1 -17.72 -1.59 0.15
1997Q2 -17.96 -1.60 0.02
1997Q3 -18.24 -1.72 -0.32
1997Q4 -18.70 -1.77 -0.40
1998Q1 -19.59 -2.10 -0.61
1998Q2 -20.05 -2.49 -0.76
1998Q3 -20.60 -2.82 -0.80
1998Q4 -21.13 -3.07 -0.83
1999Q1 -21.77 -3.41 -0.90
1999Q2 -22.34 -3.59 -0.98
1999Q3 -22.53 -3.70 -1.07
1999Q4 -22.29 -3.76 -1.06
2000Q1 -22.01 -3.71 -1.28
2000Q2 -21.87 -3.73 -1.49
2000Q3 -21.34 -3.69 -1.53
2000Q4 -20.79 -3.75 -1.44
2001Q1 -20.91 -4.01 -1.35
2001Q2 -20.14 -4.29 -1.18
2001Q3 -19.97 -4.61 -1.13
2001Q4 -19.78 -4.89 -1.13
2002Q1 -19.17 -4.94 -1.05
2002Q2 -18.50 -5.22 -0.89
2002Q3 -17.94 -5.58 -0.72
2002Q4 -17.43 -5.82 -0.57
2003Q1 -16.56 -6.08 -0.25
2003Q2 -15.63 -6.14 -0.09
2003Q3 -14.68 -6.35 0.01
2003Q4 -13.73 -6.72 0.07
2004Q1 -12.90 -6.64 0.04
2004Q2 -12.21 -6.48 0.08
2004Q3 -11.85 -6.27 0.19
2004Q4 -11.73 -6.06 0.16
2005Q1 -11.88 -6.11 0.32
2005Q2 -11.94 -6.05 0.32
2005Q3 -12.15 -6.05 0.32
2005Q4 -12.28 -6.01 0.31
2006Q1 -11.32 -5.99 0.23
2006Q2 -11.28 -5.76 0.29
2006Q3 -11.03 -5.41 0.42
2006Q4 -10.59 -5.00 0.51
2007Q1 -10.44 -4.76 0.48
2007Q2 -10.57 -4.37 0.45
2007Q3 -10.54 -4.85 0.41
2007Q4 -10.38 -5.45 0.41
2008Q1 -10.41 -4.42 0.32
2008Q2 -10.33 -4.16 0.41
2008Q3 -10.28 -3.63 0.47
2008Q4 -10.29 -3.03 0.49
2009Q1 -10.46 -3.23 0.48
2009Q2 -10.66 -3.45 0.56
2009Q3 -10.52 -3.18 0.56
2009Q4 -10.31 -3.34 0.56
2010Q1 -9.77 -3.43 0.47
2010Q2 -9.22 -3.31 0.50
2010Q3 -8.64 -3.28 0.50
2010Q4 -8.11 -2.87 0.52
2011Q1 -7.84 -2.49 0.69
2011Q2 -7.41 -2.72 0.69
2011Q3 -7.06 -3.11 0.69
2011Q4 -6.77 -3.47 0.68
2012Q1 -6.33 -3.85 0.75
2012Q2 -5.92 -4.21 0.73
2012Q3 -5.34 -3.56 0.76
2012Q4 -4.97 -2.59 0.75
2013Q1 -4.29 -3.03 0.63
2013Q2 -3.95 -2.87 0.50
2013Q3 -3.68 -2.89 0.42
2013Q4 -3.32 -2.89 0.40
2014Q1 -2.86 -2.42 0.40
2014Q2 -2.28 -1.98 0.36
2014Q3 -1.95 -2.22 0.35
2014Q4 -1.67 -2.05 0.33

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Figure 5: Computers and peripheral equipment prices, five-year average inflation

Note: Calculations based on BEA data

Percent change

Date Electronic Computers: Computer storage devices: Computer peripheral equipment: Other computer and peripheral equipment:
Servers PC's Computer storage devices Computer displays Computer peripheral equipment, n.e.c. Capitalized system integration services Net sales of used computers
2000 -25.67 -30.33 -14.99 -8.72 -13.20 3.42 -12.95
2001 -24.89 -29.66 -14.65 -10.04 -9.28 3.37 -12.19
2002 -19.21 -28.13 -15.06 -9.42 -7.19 3.50 -11.85
2003 -16.81 -24.15 -13.58 -6.97 -4.94 3.56 -10.67
2004 -14.20 -19.33 -11.59 -5.76 -3.72 3.49 -9.55
2005 -13.45 -19.58 -10.07 -6.24 -4.10 3.28 -9.63
2006 -11.93 -18.05 -9.07 -6.05 -4.46 3.29 -9.40
2007 -16.10 -16.05 -7.43 -5.99 -4.38 3.13 -8.65
2008 -16.02 -15.51 -6.34 -6.08 -4.83 2.67 -8.08
2009 -16.54 -15.71 -6.17 -5.93 -4.97 2.52 -7.83
2010 -15.44 -12.46 -6.69 -5.45 -4.74 2.27 -7.17
2011 -13.20 -9.62 -5.92 -5.20 -4.54 1.79 -6.60
2012 -9.47 -7.83 -4.65 -3.69 -3.24 1.26 -5.61
2013 -6.78 -5.27 -4.38 -2.43 -2.02 1.46 -5.11
2013 share: 11% 43% 5% 7% 7% 22% 4%

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Figure 6: Import penetration of computer equipment investment

Note: Calculations based on data from the Census Annual Survey of Manufacturers, the Census and BEA U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, and BEA Input-Output Tables

Note: Computer equipment includes PC's and servers and excludes peripheral equipment

Import share

Date Staff estimate based on shipments, imports, and exports Staff estimate for 2007 based on BEA's benchmark input-output tables
2002 17.81 35.54
2003 22.00 35.54
2004 28.28 35.54
2005 32.18 35.54
2006 34.39 35.54
2007 35.82 35.54
2008 35.55 35.54
2009 42.13 35.54
2010 66.61 35.54
2011 90.13 35.54
2012 86.89 35.54
2013 86.59 35.54

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Figure 7: Computer equipment price index in the NIPAs

Note: Calculations based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) price indexes, BEA data, and weights from figure 6.

Note: Computer equipment includes PCs and servers and excludes peripheral equipment

Percent change

Date BEA Index Weighted index based on domestic and import price indexes Domestic price index (Industry PPI series) Import price index (IPI series)
2003 -16.21 -15.71 -19.78 -6.09
2004 -9.83 -9.10 -11.77 -4.77
2005 -18.69 -18.91 -21.27 -13.92
2006 -19.57 -19.63 -23.99 -11.33
2007 -15.42 -16.85 -24.29 -3.74
2008 -14.10 -16.39 -23.47 -3.50
2009 -11.36 -11.38 -16.80 -3.87
2010 -5.22 -4.43 -10.58 -1.27
2011 -6.15 -5.84 -10.38 -5.33
2012 -4.46 -4.59 -6.60 -4.35
2013 -1.15 -1.40 -7.76 -0.69

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