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Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
April 29-30, 2008 Presentation Materials -- Text Version

Presentation Materials (PDF)

Pages 192 to 266 of the Transcript

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Dudley

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Page 1

Top panel
(1)

Title: U.S. Equity Indices Stabilize
Series: S&P 500 index, Nasdaq index, and S&P 500 financials index
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: U.S. equity indices stabilize. Financials continue to underperform against U.S. equity indices.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(2)

Title: Corporate Credit Spreads Decline
Series: Investment grade and high-yield corporate debt spreads and yields
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: Investment grade and high-yield debt option-adjusted spreads narrow from levels seen in March. Yields on high-yield debt decline, while yields on investment grade debt remain stable.

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom panel
(3)

Title: Global Credit Default Swap Spreads Narrow
Series: iTraxx Crossover and investment grade CDX
Horizon: March 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: ITRAXX Crossover and investment grade CDX spreads have narrowed.

Source: JP Morgan


Page 2

Top panel
(4)

Title: Implied Volatility Decreases
Series: VIX index, MOVE index, 1-month Euro-Dollar volatility index, and 1-month Dollar-Yen volatility index
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: During the intermeeting period, implied volatility across asset classes has decreased.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(5)

Title: Prices for AAA-Rated Tranches on ABX Indices Rise
Series: Prices on the 2006-01, 2006-02, 2007-01, and 2007-02 vintages of the AAA-rated tranche of the ABX
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: Prices for the AAA-rated tranche of the 06-01, 06-02, 07-01, and 07-02 ABX vintages have risen during the intermeeting period.

Source: JP Morgan

Bottom panel
(6)

Title: Ten and Thirty Year AAA-Rated Municipals Recover
Series: Ratio of the 10-Year AAA-rated municipal yields to the 10-Year Treasury yield, and ratio of the 30-Year AAA-rated municipal yield to the 30-Year Treasury yield
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: The ratio of 10- and 30-year AAA-rated municipal debt yields to Treasury yields declined.

Source: Bloomberg


Page 3

Top panel
(7)

Title: Investment Bank Equity Prices Stabilize
Series: Equity prices for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: Equity prices for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch have stabilized.

Source: Markit and Bloomberg

Middle panel
(8)

Title: Investment Bank CDS Spreads Narrow
Series: Credit default swap spreads for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: Credit default swap spreads for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch have narrowed.

Source: Markit and Bloomberg


Page 4

Top panel
(9) Collateral Haircuts Stabilize at Higher Levels

February 1, 2008 - April 9, 2008
Maturity
Overnight 1-Month 3-Month
COLLATERAL Date Average High Low Average High Low Average High Low
Treasury 9-Apr 0.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.7% 2.0% 0.0%
10-Mar 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0%
3-Mar 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0%
1-Feb 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0%
Agency Debt 9-Apr 1.3% 3.5% 0.0% 2.1% 7.5% 0.0% 1.6% 5.0% 0.0%
10-Mar 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 1.9% 7.5% 0.0% 1.7% 5.5% 0.0%
3-Mar 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 1.1% 3.0% 0.0% 1.4% 4.5% 0.0%
1-Feb 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% 1.1% 3.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.5% 0.0%
Agency MBS 9-Apr 5% 7% 3% 6% 8% 3% 6% 9% 3%
10-Mar 5% 7% 3% 5% 8% 3% 6% 10% 3%
3-Mar 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3%
1-Feb 3% 5% 2% 3% 6% 3% 4% 5% 3%
Non-agency MBS
Prime 9-Apr 21% 28% 15% 27% 35% 15% 25% 35% 15%
10-Mar 18% 28% 10% 19% 28% 12% 19% 28% 15%
3-Mar 16% 18% 15% 16% 18% 15% 18% 18% 18%
1-Feb 13% 20% 5% 11% 20% 4% 14% 20% 7%
Alt-A 9-Apr 38% 43% 30% 36% 43% 30% 33% 43% 23%
10-Mar 28% 43% 18% 28% 43% 18% 30% 43% 18%
3-Mar 14% 18% 10% 16% 20% 10%      
1-Feb 19% 43% 10% 16% 43% 10% 28% 43% 13%
Corporate Debt
High Grade 9-Apr 17% 25% 10% 18% 25% 11% 19% 25% 12%
10-Mar 12% 25% 5% 15% 25% 5% 18% 25% 15%
3-Mar 11% 25% 3% 13% 25% 3% 18% 25% 15%
1-Feb 10% 25% 3% 10% 25% 3% 13% 25% 3%
High Yield 9-Apr 36% 70% 19% 39% 70% 25% 39% 70% 25%
10-Mar 28% 70% 10% 27% 70% 15% 36% 70% 25%
3-Mar 26% 70% 9% 27% 70% 10% 35% 70% 20%
1-Feb 25% 70% 6% 24% 70% 10% 28% 70% 10%

Source: Survey of 14 Hedge Funds and 1 REIT


Page 5

Top panel
(10)

Title: Bank Term Funding Pressures Revive: One-Month LIBOR - OIS Spread
Series: Spreads between one-month Libor rates and one-month overnight index swap rates for U.S., U.K., and Euro-Area
Horizon: August 14, 2007 - April 28, 2008
Description: The spreads between one-month Libor rates and one-month overnight index swap rates for U.S., U.K., and Euro-Area continue to rise.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(11)

Title: Three-Month LIBOR - OIS Spread
Series: Spreads between three-month Libor rate and three-month overnight index swap rates for U.S., U.K., and Euro-Area
Horizon: August 14, 2007 - April 28, 2008
Description: The spreads between three-month Libor rate and three-month overnight index swap rates for U.S., U.K., and Euro-Area continue to rise.

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom panel
(12)

Title: Range of One-Month LIBOR Rates from 16 Contributing Banks
Series: Highest and lowest one-month Libor rate reported among the 16 contributing banks and one-month Libor fixing
Horizon: April 4, 2008 - April 28, 2008
Description: The range of one-month Libor rates reported among the 16 contributing banks and the one-month Libor fixing increase following a Wall Street Journal article on Libor manipulation.

Source: Bloomberg


Page 6

Top panel
(13)

Title: Three-month FX Swap Financing Cost to Three-Month LIBOR
Series: Spread between three-month Libor and three-month interest rate swap rates and spread between the implied three-month FX swap and three-month Libor rates
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - April 28, 2008
Description: The spreads between the implied three-month FX swap and three-month Libor rates and the three-month Libor and three-month overnight index swap rates increase.

Source: JP Morgan

Middle panel
(14)

Title: Spread between Jumbo and Conforming Mortgage Rates Remains Wide
Series: Jumbo mortgage rates, conforming mortgage rates, and spread
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: The spread between jumbo and conforming mortgage rates remains wide.

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom panel
(15)

Title: TAF Auction Results
Series: TAF auction size and Spread between the TAF stop-out and minimum bid rates
Horizon: December 20, 2007 - April 24, 2008
Description: The spread between the TAF stop-out and minimum bid rates increases, while the size of the TAF auction increases.

Source: Federal Reserve Board


Page 7

Top panel
(16) Federal Reserve Term Securities Lending Facility Results

Auction
Settlement
Term Collateral Amount Minimum
Fee Rate
Stop-out
Rate
Propositions Bid/Cover
3/28/2008 28 Days Schedule 2 $75 b 0.25% 0.33% $86.1 b 1.15
4/4/2008 28 Days Schedule 1 $25 b 0.10% 0.16% $46.9 b 1.88
4/11/2008 28 Days Schedule 2 $50 b 0.25% 0.25% $40.0 b 0.68
4/18/2008 28 Days Schedule 1 $25 b 0.10% 0.10% $35.1 b 1.40
4/25/2008 28 Days Schedule 2 $75 b 0.25% 0.25% $59.5 b 0.79

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Middle panel
(17)

Title: GC Treasury Repo Market Improves as a Result of TSLF Auctions
Series: Overnight GC Treasury repo rate and fed funds target rate
Horizon: February 1, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: The overnight GC Treasury repo rate increases following the first TSLF auction.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Bottom panel
(18)

Title: One-Month Libor-OIS Spread Declines After Fed Actions
Series: Spread between one-month Libor rate and one-month overnight index swap rates
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - April 28, 2008
Description: The spread between one-month Libor rate and one-month overnight index swap rates has narrowed following Fed actions.

As shown in the chart, the spread declines after "DW Rate Cut," "FOMC Cuts Policy Rate by 50 bps," "TAF Introduced," "Increase TAF size," "Intermeeting Rate Cut," "Increase TAF size and Term MBS Repo," and "DW Rate Cut and PDCF Introduced."

Source: Bloomberg


Page 8

Top panel
(19)

Title: Fed Funds Futures Curve Shifts Upward
Series: Fed funds futures curve as of 1/29/2008, 3/17/2008, and 4/25/2008
Horizon: January 29, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: The fed funds futures curve has shifted higher since the March FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(20)

Title: Eurodollar Futures Curve: A Bigger Upward Shift
Series: Eurodollar futures curve as of 1/29/2008, 3/17/2008, and 4/25/2008
Horizon: January 29, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: The Eurodollar futures curve has shifted higher since the March FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg


Page 9

Top panel
(21)

Title: Distribution of Expected Policy Target Among Primary Dealers Prior to April 29-30 FOMC Meeting
Series: Dealer expectations for policy target rate by quarter, average forecast for policy target by quarter, and market rate for policy expectation by quarter as of 4/21/2008
Horizon: 2008:Q2 - 2009:Q4
Description: Dealers on average expect lower rates than what is currently priced into Eurodollar futures for 2008. The dispersion regarding where dealers expect the policy rate to be in the near term is similar to the March 2008 policy survey.

Source: Dealer Policy Survey

Middle panel
(22)

Title: Distribution of Expected Policy Target Among Primary Dealers Prior to March 18 FOMC Meeting
Series: Dealer expectations for policy target rate by quarter, average forecast for policy target by quarter, and market rate for policy expectation by quarter as of 3/10/2008
Horizon: 2008:Q1 - 2009:Q4
Description: Dealers on average expect higher rates than what is currently priced into Eurodollar futures for 2008. The dispersion of policy rate expectation is similar to the April 2008 policy survey for 2008 and 2009.

Source: Dealer Policy Survey

Bottom panel
(23)

Title: Probabilities for Policy Rate Outcomes for April FOMC meeting
Series: Probabilities for a 1.50, 1.75, 2.00, or 2.25 percent target rate at April FOMC meeting
Horizon: March 1, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: In the days leading up to the FOMC meeting, the probability for a 2.00 target rate at the April 30 FOMC meeting was the highest.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland


Page 10

Top panel
(24)

Title: Recent Commodity Price Pressures Concentrated in Energy
Series: GSCI spot, energy, agriculture, and industrial metals indices
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: The rise in commodity prices during the intermeeting period was largely concentrated in the energy sector.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(25)

Title: TIPS Implied Average Rate of Inflation: 5-10 Year Horizon
Series: Federal Reserve Board's 5-10 Year horizon TIPS inflation compensation and Barclays' 5-10 Year horizon TIPS inflation compensation
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: TIPS inflation compensation over a 5-10 year horizon has decreased since the March FOMC meeting as measured by both the Federal Reserve Board and Barclays.

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Barclays Capital


Page 11

Top panel
(26)

Title: Volatility in the Fed Funds Market
Series: Low, high, effective, and target fed funds rate
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: The volatility in the fed funds market remains elevated.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Middle panel
(27)

Title: Primary Credit Facility and Primary Dealer Credit Facility Borrowing
Series: Borrowing levels for the Primary Credit Facility and Primary Dealer Credit Facility
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: Borrowing at the Primary Credit Facility and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility has increased significantly recently.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York


APPENDIX: Reference Exhibits

Page 12

Top panel
(28)

Title: Treasury Yield Curve Shifts Upward
Series: Constant maturity Treasury yield curve as of 1/29/2008, 3/17/2008, and 4/25/2008
Horizon: January 29, 2008 - April 25, 2008
Description: The Treasury yield curve has shifted higher since the last FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(29)

Title: Dollar Remains Weak
Series: Yen-USD, Euro-USD, and broad trade-weighted dollar
Horizon: January 1, 2006 - April 25, 2008
Description: Since mid-June 2007, the U.S. dollar has depreciated against the Euro and Japanese Yen. Consistent with this, the broad trade-weighted dollar has also been declining.

Source: Bloomberg and Federal Reserve Board

Bottom panel
(30)

Title: Dollar Tracks Interest Rate Differentials
Series: December 2008 Eurodollar and Euribor calendar spread and the Euro
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - April 25, 2008
Description: U.S. dollar weakens against the Euro as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Euro-area increases.

Source: Bloomberg



Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Madigan

Material for Briefing on FOMC Participants' Economic Projections
Brian Madigan
April 29, 2008

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

Table 1:
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents1

2008 2009 2010
Central Tendencies
Real GDP Growth 0.3 to 1.2 2.0 to 2.8 2.6 to 3.1
   January projections 1.3 to 2.0 2.1 to 2.7 2.5 to 3.0
Unemployment Rate 5.5 to 5.7 5.2 to 5.7 4.9 to 5.5
January projections 5.2 to 5.3 5.0 to 5.3 4.9 to 5.1
PCE Inflation 3.1 to 3.4 1.9 to 2.3 1.8 to 2.0
January projections 2.1 to 2.4 1.7 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0
Core PCE Inflation 2.1 to 2.4 1.9 to 2.1 1.7 to 1.9
January projections 2.0 to 2.2 1.7 to 2.0 1.7 to 1.9
Ranges
Real GDP Growth 0.0 to 1.5 1.8 to 3.0 2.0 to 3.4
January projections 1.0 to 2.2 1.8 to 3.2 2.2 to 3.2
Unemployment Rate 5.3 to 6.0 5.1 to 6.3 4.7 to 5.9
January projections 5.0 to 5.5 4.9 to 5.7 4.7 to 5.4
PCE Inflation 2.8 to 3.8 1.7 to 3.0 1.5 to 2.0
January projections 2.0 to 2.8 1.7 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.0
Core PCE Inflation 1.9 to 2.5 1.7 to 2.2 1.3 to 2.0
January projections 1.9 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.2 1.4 to 2.0

1. Projections of real GDP growth, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth rates, i.e. percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures and the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, respectively. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.  Return to text


Exhibit 2
Uncertainty and Risks in Economic Projections

Top-left panel
Degree of Uncertainty about Growth Outlook

Number of Participants
Lower Historically
Normal
Higher
January 0 2 15
April 0 3 14

Top-right panel
Risk Weighting around Growth Outlook

Number of Participants
Weighted to
Downside
Broadly
Balanced
Weighted to
Upside
January 13 3 1
April 13 4 0

Bottom-left panel
Degree of Uncertainty about Outlook for Total Inflation

Number of Participants
Lower Historically
Normal
Higher
January 0 12 5
April 1 6 10

Bottom-right panel
Risk Weighting around Outlook for Total Inflation

Number of Participants
Weighted to
Downside
Broadly
Balanced
Weighted to
Upside
January 0 11 6
April 0 9 8


Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. English

Material for the FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives
William B. English
April 29-30, 2008

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

Table 1:
Alternative Language for the April 2008 FOMC Announcement

April 29-30, 2008
[Note: In Appendix 3, Table 1, strong emphasis (bold) has been added to indicate underlined red text in the original document. Emphasis (italic) indicates underlined blue text in the original document. Exceptions: In the Assessment of Risk row under Alternatives B and C, strong emphasis indicates underlined normal text. In the second row of Rationale under Alternative B, strong emphasis on the first word "Although" indicates underlined purple text in the original document.]
March FOMC Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C
Policy
Decision
1. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 2-¼ percent. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1-¾ percent. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2-¼ percent.
Rationale 2. Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. Growth in consumer spending has slowed and labor markets have softened. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
3. Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Assessment
of Risk
4. Today's policy action, combined with those taken earlier, including measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. The Committee judged that a further reduction in interest rates was appropriate to foster moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. The Committee will act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. Although downside risks to growth remain, the substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.


Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. Stockton

Class II FOMC - RESTRICTED (FR)

Page 1

Top panel
Gross Domestic Product

(percent change at an annual rate)
2007-Q4 2008-Q1
Final Greenbook Advance
Real GDP 0.6 0.4 0.6
Final Sales 2.4 -0.3 -0.2
Personal Consumption 2.3 1.0 1.0
Durables 2.0 -7.0 -6.1
Nondurables 1.2 -0.9 -1.3
Services 2.8 3.6 3.4
Business Fixed Investment 6.0 -1.1 -2.5
Nonresidential Structures 12.4 -2.8 -6.2
Equipment and Software 3.1 -0.2 -0.7
Residential Investment -25.2 -30.9 -26.7
Government 2.0 0.7 2.0
Federal 0.5 1.9 4.6
State and Local 2.8 0.1 0.5
Exports 6.5 6.2 5.5
Imports -1.4 2.4 2.5
Level in chained 2000 dollars:
Change in nonfarm business inventories -21.7 -2.4 2.7
Change in farm inventories 2.2 0.8 -0.7
Net Exports -503.2 -492.4 -495.9
Price Indexes:
Total PCE Chain Price Index 3.9 3.5 3.5
Core PCE Chain Price Index 2.5 2.1 2.2


Appendix 5: Materials used by Messrs. Madigan, Meyer, Clouse, Hilton, and Dudley

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

Implications of Interest on Reserves for Monetary Policy Implementation

Presentation by Federal Reserve Staff
at
Joint Meeting of Board of Governors and Federal Open Market Committee
April 30, 2008

Page 2
New powers effective October 2011

Page 3
Remaining statutory constraints

Page 4
Process to date

Page 5
Outline of briefing

Page 6
Following the briefing, we will seek your comments on:

Page 7
Implementing U.S. Monetary Policy: Current Framework and Operating Procedures

Pages 8-9
Demand: Reserve Requirements

2008 Reserve Requirement Ratios
Type of liability Requirement (% of liabilities)
Net transaction accounts
$0 to $9.3 million 0 %
> $9.3 million to $43.9 million 3 %
> $43.9 million 10 %
Nonpersonal time deposits 0 %
Eurocurrency liabilities 0 %

For details on the multitude of complex definitions, rules, carryover provisions, etc., see the 135 page Reserve Maintenance Manual

Page 10
Demand: Contractual Clearing Balances

Page 11
Required Reserve Balances & Contractual Clearing Balances

Weekly average
Billions of $
Period Required Reserve Balances Contractual Clearing Balances
7 January 2004 9.27 11.83
14 January 2004 11.50 10.18
21 January 2004 11.50 10.18
28 January 2004 10.56 10.62
4 February 2004 10.56 10.61
11 February 2004 8.28 10.94
18 February 2004 8.28 10.94
25 February 2004 11.20 10.08
3 March 2004 11.20 10.08
10 March 2004 9.96 10.88
17 March 2004 9.96 10.89
24 March 2004 10.32 10.41
31 March 2004 10.32 10.41
7 April 2004 10.23 10.56
14 April 2004 10.23 10.57
21 April 2004 14.43 9.97
28 April 2004 14.43 9.97
5 May 2004 11.69 10.56
12 May 2004 11.69 10.56
19 May 2004 13.20 9.78
26 May 2004 13.20 9.79
2 June 2004 11.86 10.15
9 June 2004 11.86 10.14
16 June 2004 11.17 10.30
23 June 2004 11.17 10.29
30 June 2004 10.71 10.86
7 July 2004 10.71 10.86
14 July 2004 11.46 10.42
21 July 2004 11.46 10.42
28 July 2004 12.40 9.80
4 August 2004 12.40 9.80
11 August 2004 9.01 10.53
18 August 2004 9.01 10.53
25 August 2004 12.25 10.21
1 September 2004 12.25 10.21
8 September 2004 10.20 10.23
15 September 2004 10.20 10.22
22 September 2004 12.61 10.16
29 September 2004 12.61 10.16
6 October 2004 9.17 10.72
13 October 2004 9.17 10.72
20 October 2004 11.08 10.49
27 October 2004 11.08 10.49
3 November 2004 10.25 10.57
10 November 2004 10.25 10.57
17 November 2004 10.30 9.96
24 November 2004 10.30 9.96
1 December 2004 10.40 10.02
8 December 2004 10.40 10.02
15 December 2004 9.87 9.76
22 December 2004 9.87 9.76
29 December 2004 10.32 9.97
5 January 2005 10.32 9.96
12 January 2005 10.54 9.59
19 January 2005 10.54 9.59
26 January 2005 15.27 8.94
2 February 2005 15.27 8.95
9 February 2005 8.79 9.77
16 February 2005 8.79 9.77
23 February 2005 12.25 8.67
2 March 2005 12.25 8.67
9 March 2005 9.27 9.55
16 March 2005 9.27 9.55
23 March 2005 11.02 8.73
30 March 2005 11.02 8.73
6 April 2005 9.27 9.51
13 April 2005 9.27 9.51
20 April 2005 13.38 8.43
27 April 2005 13.38 8.42
4 May 2005 9.85 9.03
11 May 2005 9.85 9.02
18 May 2005 11.02 8.34
25 May 2005 11.02 8.34
1 June 2005 9.93 8.85
8 June 2005 9.93 8.85
15 June 2005 9.26 8.61
22 June 2005 9.26 8.61
29 June 2005 9.18 8.28
6 July 2005 9.18 8.28
13 July 2005 8.69 9.01
20 July 2005 8.69 9.00
27 July 2005 11.30 8.68
3 August 2005 11.30 8.68
10 August 2005 7.97 9.12
17 August 2005 7.97 9.12
24 August 2005 10.44 8.72
31 August 2005 10.44 8.72
7 September 2005 8.48 8.88
14 September 2005 8.48 8.88
21 September 2005 11.25 8.24
28 September 2005 11.25 8.24
5 October 2005 7.62 8.86
12 October 2005 7.62 8.86
19 October 2005 8.93 8.59
26 October 2005 8.93 8.59
2 November 2005 8.60 8.78
9 November 2005 8.60 8.78
16 November 2005 8.02 8.82
23 November 2005 8.02 8.82
30 November 2005 8.77 8.75
7 December 2005 8.77 8.73
14 December 2005 7.53 8.81
21 December 2005 7.53 8.80
28 December 2005 8.58 8.65
4 January 2006 8.58 8.65
11 January 2006 7.55 9.37
18 January 2006 7.55 9.37
25 January 2006 9.97 8.71
1 February 2006 9.97 8.71
8 February 2006 7.03 8.47
15 February 2006 7.03 8.47
22 February 2006 8.59 8.02
1 March 2006 8.59 8.02
8 March 2006 7.25 8.14
15 March 2006 7.25 8.15
22 March 2006 8.01 7.98
29 March 2006 8.01 7.98
5 April 2006 7.14 7.73
12 April 2006 7.14 7.73
19 April 2006 9.54 7.61
26 April 2006 9.54 7.61
3 May 2006 8.78 6.70
10 May 2006 8.78 6.70
17 May 2006 9.26 7.37
24 May 2006 9.26 7.37
31 May 2006 8.45 7.58
7 June 2006 8.45 7.58
14 June 2006 8.07 7.32
21 June 2006 8.07 7.32
28 June 2006 8.24 7.17
5 July 2006 8.24 7.16
12 July 2006 7.04 7.22
19 July 2006 7.04 7.22
26 July 2006 9.37 7.03
2 August 2006 9.37 7.03
9 August 2006 6.10 7.20
16 August 2006 6.10 7.20
23 August 2006 8.34 6.98
30 August 2006 8.34 6.98
6 September 2006 6.29 6.79
13 September 2006 6.29 6.79
20 September 2006 8.69 6.97
27 September 2006 8.69 6.97
4 October 2006 6.17 6.99
11 October 2006 6.17 6.99
18 October 2006 6.73 6.92
25 October 2006 6.73 6.91
1 November 2006 6.74 6.93
8 November 2006 6.74 6.93
15 November 2006 6.30 6.81
22 November 2006 6.30 6.81
29 November 2006 7.30 6.83
6 December 2006 7.30 6.83
13 December 2006 5.76 7.02
20 December 2006 5.76 7.02
27 December 2006 7.34 6.84
3 January 2007 7.34 6.84
10 January 2007 6.03 6.92
17 January 2007 6.03 6.92
24 January 2007 8.35 6.84
31 January 2007 8.35 6.84
7 February 2007 5.44 6.86
14 February 2007 5.44 6.86
21 February 2007 6.89 6.74
28 February 2007 6.89 6.74
7 March 2007 5.96 6.69
14 March 2007 5.96 6.69
21 March 2007 5.65 7.04
28 March 2007 5.65 7.04
4 April 2007 5.90 6.99
11 April 2007 5.90 6.99
18 April 2007 7.23 6.55
25 April 2007 7.23 6.56
2 May 2007 8.30 6.51
9 May 2007 8.30 6.51
16 May 2007 7.32 6.47
23 May 2007 7.32 6.47
30 May 2007 7.59 6.58
6 June 2007 7.59 6.58
13 June 2007 6.68 6.58
20 June 2007 6.68 6.58
27 June 2007 7.04 6.39
4 July 2007 7.04 6.39
11 July 2007 5.72 6.43
18 July 2007 5.72 6.43
25 July 2007 7.56 6.47
1 August 2007 7.56 6.47
8 August 2007 5.25 6.56
15 August 2007 5.25 6.56
22 August 2007 6.81 6.86
29 August 2007 6.81 6.85
5 September 2007 6.08 6.61
12 September 2007 6.08 6.61
19 September 2007 7.59 6.65
26 September 2007 7.59 6.65
3 October 2007 7.66 6.47
10 October 2007 7.66 6.47
17 October 2007 6.19 6.58
24 October 2007 6.19 6.58
31 October 2007 6.85 6.58
7 November 2007 6.85 6.58
14 November 2007 6.30 6.38
21 November 2007 6.30 6.38
28 November 2007 7.55 6.49
5 December 2007 7.55 6.49
12 December 2007 5.29 6.54
19 December 2007 5.29 6.54
26 December 2007 7.00 6.61
2 January 2008 7.00 6.61
9 January 2008 6.10 6.65
16 January 2008 6.10 6.65
23 January 2008 8.02 6.68
30 January 2008 8.02 6.67
6 February 2008 5.81 6.81
13 February 2008 5.81 6.81

As shown in the figure, Required Reserve Balances are about $7.1 billion by February 20, 2008, about $7.05 billion by March 5, and about $6.3 billion by March 26, the end of the period. Contractual Clearing Balances are constant at about $6.75 billion over the same period.

Page 12
Role of Required and Contractual Balances

Page 13
Demand: Excess Reserves

Page 14
Depository Institutions' Total Balances at Federal Reserve Banks

A line chart depicts the daily total balances of depository institutions that are held at Federal Reserve Banks from January 1, 2007 to March 31, 2008. Unit is billions of dollars. The daily balances fluctuated around the range of $10 to $25 billion until a spike in balances on August 10, 2007 to over $50 billion dollars and then a second larger spike of around $54 billion dollars on March 17, 2008.

Page 15
Daylight Credit Reduces Demand for Balances

Page 16
Supply of Balances

Page 17
Supply: Autonomous Factors and D.W. Credit

Page 18
Supply: Temporary Open Market Operations

Page 19
How well does our current approach work?

Page 20
Effective FFR minus Target: Normal Times vs. Market Turmoil

Daily, January 2007 to March 2008
Percentage points
Date Effective FFR minus Target
2 January 2007 0.05
3 January 2007 0.03
4 January 2007 -0.01
5 January 2007 -0.04
8 January 2007 -0.02
9 January 2007 0.00
10 January 2007 0.01
11 January 2007 0.02
12 January 2007 -0.03
16 January 2007 0.03
17 January 2007 0.00
18 January 2007 -0.02
19 January 2007 0.00
22 January 2007 -0.01
23 January 2007 0.01
24 January 2007 0.02
25 January 2007 0.06
26 January 2007 0.01
29 January 2007 0.01
30 January 2007 -0.02
31 January 2007 0.08
1 February 2007 0.04
2 February 2007 -0.01
5 February 2007 0.00
6 February 2007 -0.01
7 February 2007 -0.02
8 February 2007 0.00
9 February 2007 0.00
12 February 2007 0.03
13 February 2007 0.01
14 February 2007 0.02
15 February 2007 0.04
16 February 2007 -0.01
20 February 2007 0.02
21 February 2007 -0.02
22 February 2007 0.01
23 February 2007 -0.01
26 February 2007 0.05
27 February 2007 0.02
28 February 2007 0.16
1 March 2007 0.06
2 March 2007 -0.02
5 March 2007 0.02
6 March 2007 -0.03
7 March 2007 -0.01
8 March 2007 -0.01
9 March 2007 -0.01
12 March 2007 0.00
13 March 2007 0.00
14 March 2007 0.02
15 March 2007 0.04
16 March 2007 0.00
19 March 2007 0.01
20 March 2007 0.01
21 March 2007 0.01
22 March 2007 0.02
23 March 2007 -0.01
26 March 2007 0.03
27 March 2007 0.00
28 March 2007 0.02
29 March 2007 0.04
30 March 2007 0.05
2 April 2007 0.00
3 April 2007 -0.05
4 April 2007 -0.04
5 April 2007 0.05
6 April 2007 0.05
9 April 2007 0.03
10 April 2007 0.01
11 April 2007 -0.01
12 April 2007 0.02
13 April 2007 0.00
16 April 2007 0.04
17 April 2007 -0.05
18 April 2007 -0.06
19 April 2007 -0.02
20 April 2007 0.00
23 April 2007 -0.02
24 April 2007 -0.05
25 April 2007 -0.06
26 April 2007 -0.01
27 April 2007 -0.01
30 April 2007 0.04
1 May 2007 0.01
2 May 2007 -0.04
3 May 2007 -0.01
4 May 2007 -0.01
7 May 2007 -0.01
8 May 2007 -0.04
9 May 2007 -0.04
10 May 2007 0.00
11 May 2007 0.02
14 May 2007 0.01
15 May 2007 0.04
16 May 2007 0.00
17 May 2007 0.00
18 May 2007 -0.01
21 May 2007 -0.01
22 May 2007 -0.02
23 May 2007 0.00
24 May 2007 -0.01
25 May 2007 0.04
29 May 2007 0.04
30 May 2007 0.00
31 May 2007 0.03
1 June 2007 -0.02
4 June 2007 -0.01
5 June 2007 -0.06
6 June 2007 0.00
7 June 2007 0.00
8 June 2007 0.01
11 June 2007 0.02
12 June 2007 0.01
13 June 2007 0.01
14 June 2007 0.03
15 June 2007 0.01
18 June 2007 -0.02
19 June 2007 -0.04
20 June 2007 0.02
21 June 2007 0.01
22 June 2007 -0.01
25 June 2007 0.04
26 June 2007 0.00
27 June 2007 0.01
28 June 2007 0.01
29 June 2007 0.06
2 July 2007 0.06
3 July 2007 -0.01
5 July 2007 0.00
6 July 2007 -0.03
9 July 2007 -0.03
10 July 2007 -0.01
11 July 2007 -0.01
12 July 2007 0.01
13 July 2007 0.00
16 July 2007 0.07
17 July 2007 0.03
18 July 2007 0.01
19 July 2007 0.00
20 July 2007 0.00
23 July 2007 0.01
24 July 2007 0.00
25 July 2007 0.07
26 July 2007 0.03
27 July 2007 0.00
30 July 2007 0.04
31 July 2007 0.03
1 August 2007 0.05
2 August 2007 -0.01
3 August 2007 -0.01
6 August 2007 0.01
7 August 2007 0.01
8 August 2007 0.02
9 August 2007 0.16
10 August 2007 -0.57
13 August 2007 -0.44
14 August 2007 -0.71
15 August 2007 -0.54
16 August 2007 -0.28
17 August 2007 -0.34
20 August 2007 -0.22
21 August 2007 -0.36
22 August 2007 -0.48
23 August 2007 -0.37
24 August 2007 -0.14
27 August 2007 0.02
28 August 2007 0.05
29 August 2007 -0.25
30 August 2007 -0.25
31 August 2007 -0.29
4 September 2007 -0.03
5 September 2007 -0.07
6 September 2007 -0.27
7 September 2007 -0.39
10 September 2007 -0.18
11 September 2007 -0.19
12 September 2007 -0.07
13 September 2007 -0.16
14 September 2007 0.00
17 September 2007 0.08
18 September 2007 0.17
19 September 2007 -0.01
20 September 2007 0.02
21 September 2007 0.01
24 September 2007 -0.01
25 September 2007 0.07
26 September 2007 0.13
27 September 2007 0.18
28 September 2007 -0.17
1 October 2007 0.17
2 October 2007 0.03
3 October 2007 -0.07
4 October 2007 -0.01
5 October 2007 0.02
9 October 2007 0.16
10 October 2007 -0.23
11 October 2007 0.00
12 October 2007 0.00
15 October 2007 0.06
16 October 2007 -0.07
17 October 2007 -0.05
18 October 2007 -0.06
19 October 2007 0.02
22 October 2007 -0.04
23 October 2007 -0.08
24 October 2007 -0.01
25 October 2007 0.11
26 October 2007 0.05
29 October 2007 0.09
30 October 2007 0.03
31 October 2007 0.10
1 November 2007 0.09
2 November 2007 -0.22
5 November 2007 -0.21
6 November 2007 -0.28
7 November 2007 -0.11
8 November 2007 0.08
9 November 2007 -0.01
13 November 2007 0.11
14 November 2007 0.10
15 November 2007 0.04
16 November 2007 0.01
19 November 2007 0.01
20 November 2007 0.01
21 November 2007 0.00
23 November 2007 0.06
26 November 2007 0.12
27 November 2007 -0.11
28 November 2007 0.03
29 November 2007 0.05
30 November 2007 0.16
3 December 2007 0.02
4 December 2007 0.00
5 December 2007 -0.19
6 December 2007 -0.01
7 December 2007 -0.09
10 December 2007 -0.04
11 December 2007 0.04
12 December 2007 0.03
13 December 2007 0.05
14 December 2007 -0.01
17 December 2007 0.06
18 December 2007 -0.09
19 December 2007 -0.27
20 December 2007 0.12
21 December 2007 0.03
24 December 2007 -0.25
26 December 2007 0.01
27 December 2007 -0.10
28 December 2007 -0.24
31 December 2007 -1.19
2 January 2008 -0.14
3 January 2008 0.00
4 January 2008 -0.07
7 January 2008 0.02
8 January 2008 0.02
9 January 2008 0.01
10 January 2008 0.01
11 January 2008 -0.02
14 January 2008 -0.01
15 January 2008 -0.01
16 January 2008 -0.03
17 January 2008 -0.02
18 January 2008 -0.08
22 January 2008 0.18
23 January 2008 -0.07
24 January 2008 -0.03
25 January 2008 0.10
28 January 2008 0.00
29 January 2008 -0.03
30 January 2008 0.26
31 January 2008 0.22
1 February 2008 0.12
4 February 2008 -0.18
5 February 2008 -0.29
6 February 2008 -0.06
7 February 2008 0.03
8 February 2008 0.05
11 February 2008 -0.12
12 February 2008 -0.09
13 February 2008 0.02
14 February 2008 0.03
15 February 2008 -0.03
19 February 2008 -0.06
20 February 2008 0.00
21 February 2008 0.01
22 February 2008 -0.03
25 February 2008 0.00
26 February 2008 -0.15
27 February 2008 -0.07
28 February 2008 0.06
29 February 2008 0.01
3 March 2008 0.10
4 March 2008 -0.10
5 March 2008 -0.07
6 March 2008 -0.01
7 March 2008 -0.04
10 March 2008 -0.01
11 March 2008 -0.05
12 March 2008 -0.03
13 March 2008 -0.02
14 March 2008 -0.01
17 March 2008 -0.31
18 March 2008 -0.09
19 March 2008 -0.17
20 March 2008 -0.03
21 March 2008 -0.17
24 March 2008 -0.17
25 March 2008 0.17
26 March 2008 0.05
27 March 2008 0.02
28 March 2008 -0.16

As shown in the figure, red horizontal lines are plotted at about -0.1 and 0.1 percentage point. The series curve begins on January 1, 2007 at about -0.08 percentage point. Except for a brief spike on February 28, 2007, the curve remains within the red lines through August 8, 2007, and then begins to vary more widely.

Page 21
Equilibrium in the Federal Funds Market (1)

Page 22
Equilibrium in the Federal Funds Market (2)

Page 23
Burdens Imposed by Current Approach

Page 24
Strengths & Shortcomings of U.S. Approach

Page 25
Core Structural Elements

Page 26
Possible Limitations: Stigma and the Standing Lending Facility

Overnight Borrowing in the Federal Funds Market
(March 24 - April 24)
Institution Name Number of Trades Average Trade Size
($ Millions)
Average Spread over
Primary Credit Rate
(Basis Points)
Citibank 108 340 18
Bank of America 102 338 35
JP Morgan Chase 185 345 44
Wachovia 7 239 100
State Street 4 312 31
Bank of New York 43 381 23
Wells Fargo 32 199 73

Page 27
Multiple- and Single-Day Systems

Page 28
Option 1: Remunerate Required and Excess Reserve Balances

Key Structural Features
How it Should Work
Figure

A line chart. The x-axis is reserves, and the y-axis is the federal funds rate. The supply of reserves is represented by a vertical line--set at the same value regardless of the federal funds rate. Required reserve balances are represented by a vertical line slightly to the left of the reserve supply. The primary credit rate is represented by a horizontal line. Below the primary credit rate is a horizontal line representing the target federal funds rate. Below the target federal funds rate is a dotted horizontal line representing the remuneration rate on excess reserves. The vertical distance between the target federal funds rate line and the primary credit rate line above is roughly equal to the distance between the target federal funds rate line and the remuneration rate line below.

The intra-period demand for reserves and the end-of-period demand for reserves are represented by two S-curves, of different convexities. Near the y-axis, where the level of reserves is 0, intra-period demand for reserves and end-of-period demand for reserves trace the primary credit rate. As the level of reserves increases, both the intra-period demand for reserves and the end-of-period demand for reserves fall. The slope of the intra-period demand for reserves is initially steeper than the slope of the end-of-period demand for reserves. However, the slope of the line representing the intra-period demand for reserves flattens as the slope of the line representing end-of-period demand for reserves steepens, so that the lines intersect right at the point where the target federal funds rate intersects the reserve supply. (Note that end-of-period demand for reserves is above intra-period demand for reserves when the lines pass the vertical line representing required reserve balances.) As the level of reserves increases beyond the reserve supply, the end-of period demand for reserves line decreases toward the remuneration rate on excess reserves. The intra-period demand for reserves traces the target federal funds rate line for a while before falling towards the remuneration rate and eventually meeting the end-of-period demand for reserves. Both lines move slightly above the horizontal line representing the remuneration rate on excess reserves indefinitely as the level of reserves continues to increase.

Page 29
Option 2: Voluntary Balance Targets

Key Structural Features
How it Should Work
Figure

A line chart. The x-axis is reserves, and the y-axis is the federal funds rate. The supply of reserves is represented by a vertical line--set at the same value regardless of the federal funds rate. Voluntary target balances is represented by a vertical line slightly to the left of the reserve supply. The primary credit rate is represented by a horizontal line. Below the primary credit rate is a horizontal line representing the target federal funds rate. Below the target federal funds rate is a dotted horizontal line representing the remuneration rate on excess reserves. The vertical distance between the target federal funds rate line and the primary credit rate line above is roughly equal to the distance between the target federal funds rate line and the remuneration rate line below.

The intra-period demand for reserves and the end-of-period demand for reserves are represented by two S-curves, of different convexities. Near the y-axis, where the level of reserves is 0, intra-period demand for reserves and end-of-period demand for reserves trace the primary credit rate. As the level of reserves increases, both the intra-period demand for reserves and the end-of-period demand for reserves fall. The slope of the intra-period demand for reserves is initially steeper than the slope of the end-of-period demand for reserves. However, the slope of the line representing the intra-period demand for reserves flattens as the slope of the line representing end-of-period demand for reserves steepens, so that the lines intersect right at the point where the target federal funds rate intersects the reserve supply. (Note that end-of-period demand for reserves is above intra-period demand for reserves when the lines pass the vertical line representing voluntary target balances.) As the level of reserves increases beyond the reserve supply, the end-of period demand for reserves line decreases toward the remuneration rate on excess reserves. The intra-period demand for reserves traces the target federal funds rate line for a while before falling towards the remuneration rate and eventually meeting the end-of-period demand for reserves. Both lines move slightly above the horizontal line representing the remuneration rate on excess reserves indefinitely as the level of reserves continues to increase.

Page 30
Option 3: Simple Corridor

Key Structural Features
How It Should Work
Figure

A line chart. The x-axis is reserves, and the y-axis is the federal funds rate. The supply of reserves is represented by a vertical line--set at the same value regardless of the federal funds rate. This line is equal to 0 on the x-axis. The primary credit rate is represented by a horizontal line. Below the primary credit rate is a horizontal line representing the target federal funds rate. Below the target federal funds rate is a dotted horizontal line representing the remuneration rate on reserves. The vertical distance between the target federal funds rate line and the primary credit rate line above is roughly equal to the distance between the target federal funds rate line and the remuneration rate line below.

At the intersection of the y-axis, the demand for reserves curve is slightly below the primary credit rate. Moving along the x-axis, the demand for reserves begins to fall and crosses the intersection of the reserve supply and the target federal funds rate. The demand for reserves continues to fall and then levels off slightly above the remuneration rate on reserves. Demand for reserves continues on this horizontal path as reserves increase indefinitely.

Page 31
Option 4: Floor with High Balances

Key Structural Features
How it Should Work
Figure

A line chart. The x-axis is reserves, and the y-axis is the federal funds rate. The supply of reserves is represented by a vertical line--set at the same value regardless of the federal funds rate. The primary credit rate is represented by a horizontal line. Below the primary credit rate is a horizontal line representing the target federal funds rate. Slightly below the target federal funds rate is a dotted horizontal line representing the remuneration rate on reserves. Note that the vertical distance between the primary credit rate line and the target federal funds rate line is greater than the vertical distance between the target federal funds rate line and the remuneration rate on reserves line.

At the intersection of the y-axis, the demand for reserves curve is slightly below the primary credit rate. As the level of reserves increases (moving right along the x-axis), the demand for reserves begins to slope downwards towards the target federal funds rate and then eventually meets the target federal funds rate when reserves are greater than zero. The demand for reserves then traces the target federal funds rate horizontal line indefinitely as the level of reserves increases. Equilibrium is where the reserve supply vertical line and the target federal funds rate/demand for reserves horizontal line meet.

Page 32
Option 5: Voluntary Daily Target with Target Band

Key Structural Elements
How it Should Work
Figure

A line chart. The x-axis is reserves, and the y-axis is the federal funds rate. The voluntary target balance is represented by a vertical line--set at the same value regardless of the federal funds rate. Two vertical lines, equidistant from the voluntary target balance line on either side, represent the daily band. In other words, any level of reserve balances that falls within the lower daily band and the upper daily band lines are within the daily band.

The primary credit rate is represented by a horizontal line. Below the primary credit rate is a horizontal line representing the target federal funds rate. Slightly below the target federal funds rate is a dotted horizontal line representing the remuneration rate on reserves; however, the remuneration rate line decreases in a step-wise manner at the upper bound of the daily band. Beyond the upper bound of the daily band, the vertical distance between the target federal funds rate line and the primary credit rate line above is roughly equal to the distance between the target federal funds rate line and the remuneration rate line below.

Near the y-axis, where the level of reserves is 0, the demand for reserves is slightly below the primary credit rate. As demand approaches the lower bound of the daily band (i.e., moving right along the x-axis away from the y-axis), demand for reserves falls. Within the daily band, demand for reserves traces the horizontal target federal funds rate line. Once demand approaches the upper bound of the daily band, demand for reserves again falls to a level right above the remuneration rates on reserves. Demand for reserves continues on this horizontal path as reserves increase indefinitely.

Page 33
General Issues

Page 34
Assessment of Different Options: Objectives

Page 35
Option 1: Remunerate Required and Excess Reserve Balances

Page 36
Option 2: Voluntary Balance Targets

Page 37
Option 3: Simple Corridor

Page 38
Option 4: Floor with High Balances

Page 39
Option 5: Voluntary Daily Target with Clearing Band

Pages 40-41
Overall Assessment Against Objectives

  1. Reduce burdens and deadweight losses
    • All options eliminate the reserve tax, either by remunerating required reserves or eliminating requirements
    • But some options have fewer administrative burdens than others
  2. Enhance monetary policy implementation
    • All options set a floor for the fed funds rate, and most introduce additional features to help control rate volatility
    • But some options may have more flexible parameters that could be adjusted during periods of stress
  3. Promote efficient and resilient money markets and government securities markets
    • Most options would still rely on active short-term markets for the distribution of liquidity
    • But there are possible differences in the Fed's role as market intermediary, and in the impact on the interbank market
  4. Promote an efficient and resilient payments system
    • All options are consistent with proposed PSR policy changes
    • But some could yield a higher level of reserves than others as an alternative to daylight credit

Page 42
Interest on Reserves in a Broader Context

Page 43
Weaknesses of Current Monetary Policy Framework

Page 44
Federal Funds Rate Volatility (I)

Daily Average less Target Federal Funds Rate: March 2007 to Present
Date Percent
1 March 2007 0.06
2 March 2007 -0.02
5 March 2007 0.02
6 March 2007 -0.03
7 March 2007 -0.01
8 March 2007 -0.01
9 March 2007 -0.01
12 March 2007 0.00
13 March 2007 0.00
14 March 2007 0.02
15 March 2007 0.04
16 March 2007 0.00
19 March 2007 0.01
20 March 2007 0.01
21 March 2007 0.01
22 March 2007 0.02
23 March 2007 -0.01
26 March 2007 0.03
27 March 2007 0.00
28 March 2007 0.02
29 March 2007 0.04
30 March 2007 0.05
2 April 2007 0.00
3 April 2007 -0.05
4 April 2007 -0.04
5 April 2007 0.05
6 April 2007 0.05
9 April 2007 0.03
10 April 2007 0.01
11 April 2007 -0.01
12 April 2007 0.02
13 April 2007 0.00
16 April 2007 0.04
17 April 2007 -0.05
18 April 2007 -0.06
19 April 2007 -0.02
20 April 2007 0.00
23 April 2007 -0.02
24 April 2007 -0.05
25 April 2007 -0.06
26 April 2007 -0.01
27 April 2007 -0.01
30 April 2007 0.04
1 May 2007 0.01
2 May 2007 -0.04
3 May 2007 -0.01
4 May 2007 -0.01
7 May 2007 -0.01
8 May 2007 -0.04
9 May 2007 -0.04
10 May 2007 0.00
11 May 2007 0.02
14 May 2007 0.01
15 May 2007 0.04
16 May 2007 0.00
17 May 2007 0.00
18 May 2007 -0.01
21 May 2007 -0.01
22 May 2007 -0.02
23 May 2007 0.00
24 May 2007 -0.01
25 May 2007 0.04
29 May 2007 0.04
30 May 2007 0.00
31 May 2007 0.03
1 June 2007 -0.02
4 June 2007 -0.01
5 June 2007 -0.06
6 June 2007 0.00
7 June 2007 0.00
8 June 2007 0.01
11 June 2007 0.02
12 June 2007 0.01
13 June 2007 0.01
14 June 2007 0.03
15 June 2007 0.01
18 June 2007 -0.02
19 June 2007 -0.04
20 June 2007 0.02
21 June 2007 0.01
22 June 2007 -0.01
25 June 2007 0.04
26 June 2007 0.00
27 June 2007 0.01
28 June 2007 0.01
29 June 2007 0.06
2 July 2007 0.06
3 July 2007 -0.01
5 July 2007 0.00
6 July 2007 -0.03
9 July 2007 -0.03
10 July 2007 -0.01
11 July 2007 -0.01
12 July 2007 0.01
13 July 2007 0.00
16 July 2007 0.07
17 July 2007 0.03
18 July 2007 0.01
19 July 2007 0.00
20 July 2007 0.00
23 July 2007 0.01
24 July 2007 0.00
25 July 2007 0.07
26 July 2007 0.03
27 July 2007 0.00
30 July 2007 0.04
31 July 2007 0.03
1 August 2007 0.05
2 August 2007 -0.01
3 August 2007 -0.01
6 August 2007 0.01
7 August 2007 0.01
8 August 2007 0.02
9 August 2007 0.16
10 August 2007 -0.57
13 August 2007 -0.44
14 August 2007 -0.71
15 August 2007 -0.54
16 August 2007 -0.28
17 August 2007 -0.34
20 August 2007 -0.22
21 August 2007 -0.36
22 August 2007 -0.48
23 August 2007 -0.37
24 August 2007 -0.14
27 August 2007 0.02
28 August 2007 0.05
29 August 2007 -0.25
30 August 2007 -0.25
31 August 2007 -0.29
4 September 2007 -0.03
5 September 2007 -0.07
6 September 2007 -0.27
7 September 2007 -0.39
10 September 2007 -0.18
11 September 2007 -0.19
12 September 2007 -0.07
13 September 2007 -0.16
14 September 2007 0.00
17 September 2007 0.08
18 September 2007 0.17
19 September 2007 -0.01
20 September 2007 0.02
21 September 2007 0.01
24 September 2007 -0.01
25 September 2007 0.07
26 September 2007 0.13
27 September 2007 0.18
28 September 2007 -0.17
1 October 2007 0.17
2 October 2007 0.03
3 October 2007 -0.07
4 October 2007 -0.01
5 October 2007 0.02
9 October 2007 0.16
10 October 2007 -0.23
11 October 2007 0.00
12 October 2007 0.00
15 October 2007 0.06
16 October 2007 -0.07
17 October 2007 -0.05
18 October 2007 -0.06
19 October 2007 0.02
22 October 2007 -0.04
23 October 2007 -0.08
24 October 2007 -0.01
25 October 2007 0.11
26 October 2007 0.05
29 October 2007 0.09
30 October 2007 0.03
31 October 2007 0.10
1 November 2007 0.09
2 November 2007 -0.22
5 November 2007 -0.21
6 November 2007 -0.28
7 November 2007 -0.11
8 November 2007 0.08
9 November 2007 -0.01
13 November 2007 0.11
14 November 2007 0.10
15 November 2007 0.04
16 November 2007 0.01
19 November 2007 0.01
20 November 2007 0.01
21 November 2007 0.00
23 November 2007 0.06
26 November 2007 0.12
27 November 2007 -0.11
28 November 2007 0.03
29 November 2007 0.05
30 November 2007 0.16
3 December 2007 0.02
4 December 2007 0.00
5 December 2007 -0.19
6 December 2007 -0.01
7 December 2007 -0.09
10 December 2007 -0.04
11 December 2007 0.04
12 December 2007 0.03
13 December 2007 0.05
14 December 2007 -0.01
17 December 2007 0.06
18 December 2007 -0.09
19 December 2007 -0.27
20 December 2007 0.12
21 December 2007 0.03
24 December 2007 -0.25
26 December 2007 0.01
27 December 2007 -0.10
28 December 2007 -0.24
31 December 2007 -1.19
2 January 2008 -0.14
3 January 2008 0.00
4 January 2008 -0.07
7 January 2008 0.02
8 January 2008 0.02
9 January 2008 0.01
10 January 2008 0.01
11 January 2008 -0.02
14 January 2008 -0.01
15 January 2008 -0.01
16 January 2008 -0.03
17 January 2008 -0.02
18 January 2008 -0.08
22 January 2008 0.18
23 January 2008 -0.07
24 January 2008 -0.03
25 January 2008 0.10
28 January 2008 0.00
29 January 2008 -0.03
30 January 2008 0.26
31 January 2008 0.22
1 February 2008 0.12
4 February 2008 -0.18
5 February 2008 -0.29
6 February 2008 -0.06
7 February 2008 0.03
8 February 2008 0.05
11 February 2008 -0.12
12 February 2008 -0.09
13 February 2008 0.02
14 February 2008 0.03
15 February 2008 -0.03
19 February 2008 -0.06
20 February 2008 0.00
21 February 2008 0.01
22 February 2008 -0.03
25 February 2008 0.00
26 February 2008 -0.15
27 February 2008 -0.07
28 February 2008 0.06
29 February 2008 0.01
3 March 2008 0.10
4 March 2008 -0.10
5 March 2008 -0.07
6 March 2008 -0.01
7 March 2008 -0.04
10 March 2008 -0.01
11 March 2008 -0.05
12 March 2008 -0.03
13 March 2008 -0.02
14 March 2008 -0.01
17 March 2008 -0.31
18 March 2008 -0.09
19 March 2008 -0.17
20 March 2008 -0.03
21 March 2008 -0.17
24 March 2008 -0.17
25 March 2008 0.17

Page 45
Federal Funds Rate Volatility (II)

A line chart shows Daily Fed Funds Rates and Ranges: March 2008 to Present. The x-axis is the date from March 3, 2008 to April 16, 2008. The y-axis is the interest rate with a range from zero to five percent. This graph depicts three separate interest rates that all run horizontally: the effective federal funds rate is represented by blue dots, the target federal funds rate is represented by a solid black line, and the primary credit rate is represented by a bold red solid line. March 17, 2008 is marked with a vertical dashed red line that is labeled "PCF spread to target rate lowered to 25bp; PDCF introduced". (PDCF is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility.)

At each blue dot that represents the daily average federal funds rate line, a dashed vertical line is shown to represent the daily upper and lower bounds for the federal funds rate, with the upper bound reaching as high as 10 percent before falling back down on April 7, 2008 and the lower bound reaching or close to zero numerous times after the opening of the PDCF. The daily effective federal funds rate fluctuates between 3.0 percent and 2.0 percent. The target federal funds rate is set at 3.0 percent through March 17, 2008, and then is set at 2.25 percent for the remainder of the period. The primary credit rate runs 50 basis points above the target federal funds rate until March 17, 2008, and then narrows to a constant 25 basis points above the target federal funds rate. The blue dots that represent the daily effective federal funds rate fall either above or below or on the black solid line that represents the target federal funds rate.

Pages 46-47
Implications for Interest on Reserves

Page 48
Recommendation - Interest on Reserves

Page 49
Next Steps

Page 50
Possible Timeline (I)

Apr-08 Board announces System studying approaches to policy implementation and will
consult with public
May-08 Publish white paper on possible approach(es) for three months of public comment

Apr-08 to Nov-08 Intensive study of two options (options 2 and 5) - public comment consultation
with System groups and public
Oct-08 FRBNY conference on monetary policy implementation

Dec-08 Staff proposes specific approach to Board and FOMC

Page 51
Possible Timeline (II)

Jan-09 Board and FOMC discussion; preliminary decision on approach

Jan-09 to Jul-09 Staff develops detailed proposal--further consultation with System groups and
public
Aug-09 Board publishes final proposal in Federal Register for public comment

Oct-09 Board publishes rules

Oct-09 to Oct-11   Prepare for implementation

Oct-11 Implement

Page 52
We seek your guidance on several key issues


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