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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on November 1-2, 2011.

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2011 through 2014 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2006 through 2010. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.

Change in real GDP
Percent

  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 2.4 2.2 (3.3) (0.5) 3.1 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.8 3.5 4.0 4.5 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 2.9 3.5 3.9 2.7
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.4
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.2

Unemployment rate
Percent

  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 9.6 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 9.1 8.9 8.4 8.0 6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.7 6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.0 8.5 7.8 6.8 5.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.9 8.1 7.5 6.5 5.0

PCE inflation
Percent

  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 1.9 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent

  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.0 - - - - n.a.
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 n.a.
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 n.a.
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 n.a.
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 n.a.

Figure 2. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Histograms, eight panels. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
November projections 0 1 16
June projections 0 4 13

Uncertainty about Unemployment
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
November projections 0 3 14
June projections 0 4 13

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
November projections 1 4 12
June projections 1 2 14

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
November projections 1 5 11
June projections 1 4 12

Risks to GDP Growth
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
November projections 11 6 0
June projections 11 6 0

Risks to Unemployment
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
November projections 0 6 11
June projections 0 8 9

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
November projections 4 10 3
June projections 1 10 6

Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
November projections 4 10 3
June projections 2 9 6

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
1.6 - 1.7 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.8 - 1.9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2 - 2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.2 - 2.3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 n.a. 3 0
2.4 - 2.5 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 n.a. 8 10
2.6 - 2.7 0 7 5 0 1 0 1 n.a. 4 2
2.8 - 2.9 0 6 3 0 1 0 1 n.a. 1 4
3 - 3.1 0 2 0 1 7 1 3 n.a. 1 1
3.2 - 3.3 0 0 1 2 4 2 1 n.a. 0 0
3.4 - 3.5 0 0 1 7 2 3 5 n.a. 0 0
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 n.a. 0 0
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 n.a. 0 0
4 - 4.1 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 n.a. 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 n.a. 0 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 n.a. 0 0

 

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 1 2
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 7 6
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 3 5
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 1 1
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 1
6 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 5 2
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 n.a. 0 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 n.a. 0 0
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 0 0
7 - 7.1 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 n.a. 0 0
7.2 - 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 n.a. 0 0
7.4 - 7.5 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 n.a. 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 n.a. 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 n.a. 0 0
8 - 8.1 0 0 1 9 5 0 1 n.a. 0 0
8.2 - 8.3 0 0 0 2 6 1 0 n.a. 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 0 3 5 1 1 0 0 n.a. 0 0
8.6 - 8.7 0 7 9 1 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
8.8 - 8.9 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
9 - 9.1 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0

 

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
1.1 - 1.2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.3 - 1.4 0 0 4 2 2 3 0 n.a. 0 0
1.5 - 1.6 0 0 3 7 5 4 6 n.a. 3 3
1.7 - 1.8 0 0 4 2 4 2 3 n.a. 2 3
1.9 - 2.0 0 0 3 3 4 6 6 n.a. 12 11
2.1 - 2.2 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 n.a. 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 8 0 0 1 0 2 n.a. 0 0
2.5 - 2.6 3 3 0 1 1 1 0 n.a. 0 0
2.7 - 2.8 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.9 - 3.0 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
3.1 - 3.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
3.3 - 3.4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
3.5 - 3.6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0

 

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2011-14

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
November
projections
June
projections
1.1 - 1.2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 n.a.
1.3 - 1.4 0 0 2 5 4 4 3 n.a.
1.5 - 1.6 0 8 6 5 5 5 4 n.a.
1.7 - 1.8 10 7 4 2 3 2 4 n.a.
1.9 - 2.0 7 1 3 3 4 5 5 n.a.
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 n.a.
2.3 - 2.4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a.
2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 n.a.

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Last update: November 22, 2011