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Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Accessible Version of Figures


Figure 1: Real GDP Growth Rate in the Supervisory Stress Scenario

Q/Q seasonally adjusted growth rates annualized, Percent

Quarter Value
Q1 2009 -6.84
Q2 2009 -.69
Q3 2009 1.68
Q4 2009 3.75
Q1 2010 3.88
Q2 2010 3.73
Q3 2010 2.48
Q4 2010 2.33
Q1 2011 .36
Q2 2011 1.33
Q3 2011 2.44
Q4 2011 -4.94
Q1 2012 -8.23
Q2 2012 -4.3
Q3 2012 -3.56
Q4 2012 0
Q1 2013 .71
Q2 2013 2.19
Q3 2013 2.3
Q4 2013 3.41
Q1 2014 3.32
Q2 2014 3.66
Q3 2014 4.56
Q4 2014 4.56

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve assumptions in the Supervisory Stress Scenario.

Figure 2: Unemployment Rate in the Supervisory Stress Scenario

Percent

Quarter Value
Q1 2009 8.22
Q2 2009 9.29
Q3 2009 9.69
Q4 2009 10.01
Q1 2010 9.7
Q2 2010 9.66
Q3 2010 9.59
Q4 2010 9.63
Q1 2011 8.93
Q2 2011 9.06
Q3 2011 9.09
Q4 2011 9.68
Q1 2012 10.58
Q2 2012 11.4
Q3 2012 12.16
Q4 2012 12.76
Q1 2013 13
Q2 2013 13.05
Q3 2013 12.96
Q4 2013 12.76
Q1 2014 12.61
Q2 2014 12.36
Q3 2014 12.04
Q4 2014 11.66

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve assumptions in the Supervisory Stress Scenario.

Figure 3: Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index, End of Quarter

Quarter Value
Q1 2009 8133.14
Q2 2009 9424.92
Q3 2009 10911.69
Q4 2009 11497.41
Q1 2010 12160.97
Q2 2010 10750.01
Q3 2010 11947.14
Q4 2010 13290.03
Q1 2011 14036.43
Q2 2011 13968.11
Q3 2011 11771.86
Q4 2011 9501.48
Q1 2012 7576.38
Q2 2012 7089.87
Q3 2012 5705.55
Q4 2012 5668.34
Q1 2013 6082.47
Q2 2013 6384.32
Q3 2013 7084.65
Q4 2013 7618.89
Q1 2014 8014.71
Q2 2014 9925.73
Q3 2014 10874.38
Q4 2014 12005.11

Source: Dow Jones and Federal Reserve assumptions in the Supervisory Stress Scenario.

Figure 4: National House Price Index in the Supervisory Stress Scenario

Quarter Value
Q1 2009 142.77
Q2 2009 143.51
Q3 2009 144.81
Q4 2009 145.34
Q1 2010 146.66
Q2 2010 146.1
Q3 2010 141.78
Q4 2010 139.61
Q1 2011 137.93
Q2 2011 137.56
Q3 2011 136.86
Q4 2011 135.13
Q1 2012 131.61
Q2 2012 127.5
Q3 2012 123.12
Q4 2012 119.08
Q1 2013 115.15
Q2 2013 111.92
Q3 2013 109.77
Q4 2013 108.48
Q1 2014 108.08
Q2 2014 108.4
Q3 2014 109.24
Q4 2014 110.29

Source: CoreLogic (seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve) and Federal Reserve assumptions in the Supervisory Stress Scenario.

Figure 5: Real GDP Growth in Four Country/Country Block Areas in the Supervisory Stress Scenario

Q/Q seasonally adjusted growth rates annualized, Percent

Quarter Euro Area Value Japan Value United Kingdom Value Developing Asia Value
Q1 2009 -10.81 -19.91 -6.32 5.33
Q2 2009 -0.85 7.79 -0.81 12.71
Q3 2009 1.77 -1.75 0.93 12.11
Q4 2009 1.54 6.54 2.94 10.74
Q1 2010 1.32 8.91 0.64 10.74
Q2 2010 3.69 -0.66 4.2 7.1
Q3 2010 1.62 3.96 2.47 8.78
Q4 2010 1.07 -2.41 -2.05 6.36
Q1 2011 3.1 -3.77 1.58 9.05
Q2 2011 0.65 -2.17 0.41 7.54
Q3 2011 1.33 1.01 0.7 7.52
Q4 2011 -1.03 1.63 -0.29 5.76
Q1 2012 -3.49 0.48 -1.6 4.93
Q2 2012 -5.4 -1.29 -2.93 4.69
Q3 2012 -6.91 -3.94 -4.25 4.67
Q4 2012 -4.92 -4.23 -3.61 6.86
Q1 2013 -2.64 -3.51 -2.41 7.91
Q2 2013 -0.88 -2.66 -1.19 8.23
Q3 2013 0.35 -1.77 -0.1 8.25
Q4 2013 1.11 -0.92 0.76 8.18
Q1 2014 1.5 -0.14 1.39 8.15
Q2 2014 1.68 0.44 1.83 8.16
Q3 2014 1.74 0.83 2.12 8.21
Q4 2014 1.72 1.05 2.3 8.28

Source: Federal Reserve calculations based on official sector sources and Federal Reserve assumptions in the Supervisory Stress Scenario. 3Q11 data based on Federal Reserve calculations using available data as of November 8, 2011.

Last update: August 2, 2013