Accessible Material
January 2011 Tealbook A Tables and Charts†
Domestic Economic Developments and Outlook
Key Background Factors underlying the Baseline Staff Projection
Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is percent. Data are quarterly average. There are four series, "Current," "Previous Tealbook," "Market, Expected Rate," and "Market, modal rate." Current and Previous Tealbook begin at about 5.25 and generally decrease together to about 0 in 2009:Q1. They remain about constant to the end of the timeline. Market, expected rate and Market, modal rate begin at about 5.25 and generally decrease together to about 0 in 2009:Q1. They remain about constant until 2011:Q4 then Market, expected rate generally increases to about 1 and Market, modal rate generally increases ending at about 0.25.
Note: In the upper-left panel that reports the federal funds rate, the black dotted line is not apparent because the federal funds rate in the December and the current Tealbooks are the same.
Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is percent. Data are quarterly average. There are six series, "BBB Corporate Yield -- Current," "BBB Corporate Yield -- Previous Tealbook," "Conforming mortgage rate -- Current," "Conforming mortgage rate -- Previous Tealbook," "10-Year Treasury yield -- Current" and "10-Year Treasury yield -- Previous Tealbook." BBB Corporate Yield -- Current and BBB Corporate Yield -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 6 and generally increase together to about 10 in 2008:Q4. They generally decrease together to about 5 in 2010:Q4 then generally increase together ending at about 6. Conforming mortgage rate -- Current and Conforming mortgage rate -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 6 and generally increase together to about 6.5 in 2007:Q3. They generally decrease together to about 6 in 2008:Q1 then generally increase together to about 6.5 in 2008:Q3. They fluctuate but generally decrease together to about 4.5 in 2010:Q3 then generally increase ending at about 6. 10-Year Treasury yield -- Current and 10-Year Treasury yield -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 5 and generally decrease together to about 3 in 2009:Q1. They generally increase together to about 4 in 2010:Q1 then generally decrease together to about 3 in 2010:Q3. They generally increase together ending at about 4.5.
Figure: Equity Prices
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is ratio scale, 2007:Q1 = 100. Data are quarter-end. There are two series "Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index -- Current" and "Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index -- Previous Tealbook." Both series begin at about 100 and generally increase together to about 105 in 2007:Q3. They generally decrease together to about 55 in 2009:Q1 then generally increase together to about 85 in 2010:Q1 then generally decrease together to about 75 in 2010:Q3. They generally increase together ending at about 110.
Figure: House Prices
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is ratio scale, 2007:Q1 = 100. Data are quarterly. There are two series, "Core Logic Index -- Current" and "Core Logic Index -- Previous Tealbook." Both series begin at about 100 and generally decrease together to about 83 in 2009:Q1. They generally increase together to about 75 in 2010:Q2 then generally decrease together ending at about 66.
Figure: Crude Oil Prices
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is dollars per barrel. Data are quarterly average. There are two series, "West Texas Intermediate -- Current" and "West Texas Intermediate -- Previous Tealbook." Both series begin at about 60 and generally increase together to about 120 in 2008:Q2. They generally decrease together to about 40 in 2009:Q1 then generally increase together to about 70 in 2010:Q4. West Texas Intermediate -- Current generally increases to about 100 in 2011:Q1 and remains about constant to the end of the timeline. West Texas Intermediate -- Previous Tealbook generally increases to about 90 in 2011:Q1 and remains about constant to the end of the timeline.
Figure: Broad Real Dollar
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is 2007:Q1 = 100. Data are quarterly average. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." Both series begin at about 100 and generally decrease together to about 90 in 2008:Q2. They generally increase together to about 102 in 2009:Q1 then generally decrease together to about 93 in 2009:Q4. They generally increase together to about 94 in 2010:Q2. Current generally decreases ending at about 82. Previous Tealbook generally decreases to about 87 in 2010:Q4 then generally increases to about 90 in 2011:Q1. It generally decreases ending at about 83.
Note: Shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2011:Q1.
[Box:] What Explains the Recent Increase in Commodity Prices?
Figure: Commodity Prices and the Dollar
Line chart, January 2010 through December 2010. Unit is an index, December 31, 2009 = 100. Data are daily. There are four series, "CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) foods (right scale)," "WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil (right scale)," "Broad nominal dollar (inverted, left scale)," and "CRB Industrial Metals (right scale)." CRB foods begins at about 100 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 105 in early May 2010. It generally decreases to about 100 in early June 2010 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 125 in early October 2010. It fluctuates but generally decreases to about 115 in late November 2010 then generally increases ending at about 135. WTI oil begins at about 100 then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 90 in early February 2010. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 110 in early April 2010 then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 85 in late May 2010. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 105 in early August 2010 then generally decreases to about 90 in late August 2010. It fluctuates but generally increases ending at about 115. Broad nominal dollar begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 103 in early February 2010. It fluctuates but generally decreases to about 100 in early April 2010 then generally increases to about 105 in late May 2010. It generally decreases to about 100 in early August 2010 then generally increases to about 103 in late August 2010. It generally decreases to about 97 in early November 2010 then fluctuates but remains about constant to the end of the timeline. CRB Industrial Materials begins at about 100 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 90 in early February 2010. It generally increases to about 105 in mid-April 2010 then generally decreases to about 85 in early June 2010. It generally fluctuates but generally increases ending at about 127.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and staff estimate.
Figure: World IP and Commodity Prices
Line chart, 2002 to 2011. Unit is an index, January 2002 = 100. Data are monthly. There are two series, "World Industrial Production (right scale)" and "CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) Industrials (left scale)." World Industrial Production begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 135 in early 2008. It generally decreases to about 120 in early 2009 then generally increases ending at about 140. CRB Industrials begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 240 in early 2008. It generally decreases to about 135 in late 2008 then fluctuates but generally increases ending at about 275.
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and the Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure: OPEC Spare Production Capacity
Line chart, 2002 to 2011. Unit is millions of barrels per day. Data are quarterly. The series begins at about 6.5 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 1 in mid-2004. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 4 in mid-2007 then generally decreases to about 2.5 in early 2008. It generally increases to about 6.5 in late 2009 then generally decreases ending at about 5.5.
Source: Oil Market Report© Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency 2010.
Summary of the Near-Term Outlook
| Measure | 2010:Q4 | 2011:Q1 | 2011:Q2 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
Previous Tealbook |
Current Tealbook |
|
| Real GDP | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| Private domestic final purchases | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Personal consumption expenditures | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Residential investment | -3.8 | .7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| Nonres. structures | -.9 | 3.7 | -3.5 | -.8 | -.7 | .0 |
| Equipment and software | 5.8 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 13.0 |
| Federal purchases | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | .9 |
| State and local purchases | .1 | -.9 | .1 | -.1 | .3 | .2 |
| Contribution to change in real GDP (percentage points) |
||||||
| Inventory investment | -1.6 | -3.0 | .1 | .5 | -.2 | .3 |
| Net exports | 1.7 | 3.5 | .3 | -.2 | .2 | -.3 |
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (1)
Figure: Change in Private Payroll Employment
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is thousands of employees. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. The end of the series is marked December. The series begins at about 0 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about -400 in late 2001. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 350 in early 2005 then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -800 in early 2009 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 300 then fluctuates but generally decreases ending at about 100. The series runs about concurrent with a second series labeled "3-month moving average."
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is percent. The end of the series is marked December. The series begins at about 4 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 6.25 in mid-2003. It generally decreases to about 4 in late 2006 then generally increases to about 10 in late 2009. It generally decreases ending at about 9.5.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics.
Figure: Manufacturing IP ex. Motor Vehicles and Parts
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is 3-month percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. The end of the series is marked December. The series begins at about -2.5 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 7 in early 2002. It generally decreases to about -1 in mid-2003 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 8 in early 2005 then generally decreases to about -5 in mid-2005. It generally increases to about 13 in early 2006 then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -23 in early 2009. It generally increases to about 10 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about 4 in early 2010. It generally increases to about 14 in mid-2010 then generally decreases ending at about 5.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."
Figure: Production of Light Motor Vehicles
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is millions of units, annual rate. The end of the series is marked December. Schedules: Q1 is marked by a circle in early 2011 at about 8. The series begins at about 10.5 and generally increases to about 12 in late 2001. It generally decreases to about 11 in early 2002 then generally increases to about 13 in mid-2002. It fluctuates but generally decreases to about 4 in late 2008 then generally increases to about 9 in mid-2010. It generally decreases ending at about 7.5.
Note: Schedules data are from Ward's Communications.
Source: Ward's Auto Infobank.
[Box:] Sales of Light Vehicles in the Downturn and Recovery
Figure: Light Vehicle Sales
Line chart, 1970 to 2010. Unit is millions of units, annual rate. A blue shaded bar representing staff forecast marks the time period 2011. There are two series, "Sales" and "Sales Trend." Sales begins at about 13 and generally increases to about 17 in 1972. It generally decreases to about 9 in 1974 then generally increases to about 16 in 1978. It generally decreases to about 8 in 1981 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 23 in 1986. It generally decreases to about 11 in 1990 then generally increases to about 23 in 2001. It generally decreases to about 16 in 2002 then fluctuates but remains about constant until it increases to about 20 in 2004. It generally decreases to about 20 in 2008 then generally increases ending at about 15. Sales trend begins at about 14 and increases ending at about 16.
Note: Grey areas represent recessions defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: Ward's and staff estimate.
Figure: Stock of Light Vehicles Per Capita
Line chart, 1970 to 2010. Unit is vehicles. A blue shaded bar representing staff forecast marks the time period 2010:Q3 through 2011. The series begins at about 0.8 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 1.02 in 2002. It fluctuates but generally decreases ending at about 0.98.
Note: Population age 16 and older. Grey areas represent recessions defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: Federal Highway Administration and staff estimate.
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (2)
Figure: Real PCE Goods ex. Motor Vehicles
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is billions of unchained (2005) dollars. The end of the series is labeled December. The series begins at about 2300 and generally increases to about 2950 in early 2008. It generally decreases to about 2800 in early 2009 then generally increases ending at about 3000.
Note: Figures for October, November, and December are staff estimates based on available source data.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Sales of Light Motor Vehicles
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is millions of units, annual rate. The end of the series is labeled December. The series begins at about 18 and generally increases to about 23 in early 2002. It generally decreases to about 16 in early 2002 then generally fluctuates between about 16 and about 18 until early 2005. It generally increases to about 21 in late 2005 then generally decreases to about 9 in early 2009. It generally increases to about 14 in mid-2009 then generally decreases to about 9 in late 2009. It generally increases ending at about 12.
Source: Ward's Auto Infobank.
Figure: Single-family Housing Starts
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is thousands of units, annual rate. The end of the series is labeled December. There are two series, "Starts" and "Adjusted permits." Both series begin at about 1200 and generally increase together to about 1800 in early 2006. They generally decrease together to about 300 in late 2008 then generally increase together to about 600 in early 2010. They generally decrease together ending at about 450.
Note: Adjusted permits equal permits plus starts outside of permit-issuing areas.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Single Family Home Sales
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is thousands of units, annual rate. The end of the series is labeled November. There are two series, "New (right scale)" and "Existing (left scale)." New begins at about 950 and generally increases to about 1350 in late 2005. It generally decreases ending at about 300. Existing begins at about 4500 and generally increases to about 6400 in early 2006. It generally decreases to about 4000 in late 2008. It generally increases to about 5600 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about 3250 in mid-2010. It generally increases ending at about 4000.
Source: For existing, National Association of Realtors; for new, U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Nondefense Capital Goods ex. Aircraft
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is billions of dollars. The end of the series is labeled November. There are two series, "Orders" and "Shipments." Orders begins at about 63 and generally decreases to about 45 in early 2002. It generally increases to about 72 in late 2007 then generally decreases to about 47 in early 2009. It generally increases ending at about 65. Shipments begins at about 63 and generally decreases to about 50 in late 2002. It generally increases to about 67 in early 2008 then generally decreases to about 53 in early 2009. It generally increases ending at about 62.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Nonresidential Construction Put in Place
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is billions of chained (2005) dollars. The end of the series is labeled November. The series begins at about 275 and generally increases to about 400 in mid-2007. It fluctuates but remains about constant until late 2008 then generally decreases ending at about 250.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Recent Nonfinancial Developments (3)
Figure: Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is months. The end of the upper series is labeled December. The end of the lower series is labeled November. There are two series, "Staff flow-of-goods system" and "Census book-value data." Staff flow-of-goods system begins at about 1.7 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 1.5 in early 2008. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 1.65 in early 2009 then generally decreases ending at about 1.5. Census book-value data begins at about 1.4 and generally decreases to about 1.2 in mid-2005. It generally increases to about 1.3 in late 2006 then generally decreases to about 1.2 in mid-2008. It generally increases to about 1.4 then generally decreases ending at about 1.2.
Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. Motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to sales.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; staff calculation.
Figure: Defense Spending
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is billions of chained (2005) dollars. The end of the upper series is labeled December. The end of the lower series is labeled Q3. There are two series, "Unified (monthly)" and "NIPA (quarterly)." Unified begins at about 375 and fluctuates but generally increases ending at about 650. NIPA begins at about 400 and generally increases ending at about 650.
Note: The unified series is seasonally adjusted and deflated by BEA prices. The NIPA series excludes the consumption of fixed capital.
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement; U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Trade Balance
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is billions of dollars. The end of the series is labeled November. The series begins at about -35 and generally decreases to about -70in late 2005. It generally increases to about -60 in late 2007 then generally decreases to about -70in mid-2008. It generally increases to about -20 in mid-2009 then generally decreases to about -50 in mid-2010. It generally increases ending at about -40.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Exports and Non-Oil Imports
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is billions of dollars. The end of the series is labeled November. There are two series, "Non-oil Imports" and "Exports." Non-oil imports begins at about 110 and generally decreases to about 100 in early 2002. It generally increases to about 180 in late 2008 then generally decreases to about 130 in mid-2009. It generally increases ending at about 170. Exports begins at about 90 and generally decreases to about 80 in late 2001. It generally increases to about 165 in late 2008 then generally decreases to about 120 in early 2009. It generally increases ending at about 160.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Total PCE Prices
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is percent. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. The end of the series is labeled December (staff estimate). There are two series, "12-month change" and "3-month change." 12-month change begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about .5 in early 2002. It generally increases to about 4 in late 2005. It generally decreases to about 2 in late 2006 then generally increases to about 5 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about -1 in mid-2009 then generally increases to about 2 in early 2010. It generally decreases ending at about 1.5. 3-month change begins at about -2 and generally increases to about 4 in early 2003. It generally decreases to about -1 in mid-2003 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 9 in mid-2005. It generally decreases to about -1 in late 2005 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 8 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about -10 in late 2008 then generally increases to about 4 in late 2009. It generally decreases to about -1 in mid-2010 then generally increases ending at about 3.
Note: 3-month changes are at an annual rate.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: PCE Prices ex. Food and Energy
Line chart, 2001 to 2011. Unit is percent. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. The end of the series is labeled December (staff estimate). There are two series, "12-month change" and "3-month change." 12-month change begins at about 1.9 and generally decreases to about 1 in late 2001. It generally increases to about 2.5 in late 2002 then generally decreases to about 1 in late 2003. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 3 in late 2008 then generally decreases to about 1 in late 2009. It generally increases to about 2 in early 2010 then generally decreases ending at about .9.
Note: 3-month changes are at an annual rate.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Projections of Real GDP and Related Components
| Measure | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | H2 | ||||
| Real GDP | .2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| Previous Tealbook | .2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Final sales | -.3 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Previous Tealbook | -.3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Personal consumption expenditures | .2 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Previous Tealbook | .2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Residential investment | -13.4 | 5.0 | -14.4 | 9.1 | 13.5 |
| Previous Tealbook | -13.4 | 5.0 | -16.7 | 10.0 | 13.6 |
| Nonresidential structures | -26.5 | -9.5 | .0 | -.4 | .0 |
| Previous Tealbook | -26.5 | -9.5 | -3.0 | -1.4 | -.8 |
| Equipment and software | -4.9 | 22.6 | 9.4 | 13.6 | 10.6 |
| Previous Tealbook | -4.9 | 22.6 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| Federal purchases | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 1.0 | .0 |
| Previous Tealbook | 3.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 1.0 | .2 |
| State and local purchases | -1.0 | -1.6 | -.1 | .3 | 1.2 |
| Previous Tealbook | -1.0 | -1.6 | .4 | .4 | 1.3 |
| Exports | -.1 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 8.6 |
| Previous Tealbook | -.1 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| Imports | -7.2 | 21.8 | .3 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Previous Tealbook | -7.2 | 21.8 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
| Contributions to change in real GDP (percentage points) |
|||||
| Inventory change | .5 | 1.7 | -.7 | .0 | .3 |
| Previous Tealbook | .5 | 1.7 | -.1 | -.1 | .4 |
| Net exports | 1.2 | -1.9 | .9 | .1 | .2 |
| Previous Tealbook | 1.2 | -1.9 | .0 | .2 | .0 |
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, 1981 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are gray shaded bars marking the time periods mid-1981 to late 1982, mid-1990 to early 1991, 2001, and late 2007 to mid-2009. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." Both series begin at about 2 and generally increase together to about 4.5 in late 1981. They generally decrease together to about -2.5 in late 1982 then generally increase together to about 8 in early 1984. They generally decrease together to about -1 in late 1990 then fluctuate but generally increase together to about 5.5 in early 2000. They generally decrease together to about .5 in late 2001 then generally increase together to about 4 in mid-2004. They generally decrease together to about -4 in early 2009 then generally increase together ending at about 4.5.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Components of Final Demand
Figure: Personal Consumption Expenditures
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2010:Q4 to 2012:Q4. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 2.9 and generally decrease together to about -2.5 in 2009:Q2. They generally increase together ending at about 4.
Figure: Residential Investment
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2010:Q4 to 2012:Q4. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about -20 and generally decrease together to about -30 in 2009:Q2. They generally increase together to about 5 in 2010:Q2 then generally decrease together to about -5 in 2010:Q3. They fluctuate but generally increase together ending at about 15.
Figure: Equipment and Software
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2010:Q4 to 2012:Q4. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 3 and remain about constant until 2008:Q1. They generally decrease together to about -20 in 2009:Q1 then generally increase together to about 20 in 2010:Q3. They generally decrease together ending at about 10.
Figure: Nonresidential Structures
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2010:Q4 to 2012:Q4. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 10 and generally increase together to about 18 in 2007:Q4. They generally decrease together to about -25 in 2009:Q4 then generally increase together to about 0 in 2011:Q1. They remain about constant to the end of the timeline.
Figure: Government Consumption & Investment
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2010:Q4 to 2012:Q4. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 0.5 and generally increase together to about 3.25 in 2008:Q4. They fluctuate but generally decrease to about 0.5 in 2010:Q2. They generally increase together to about 2.25 in 2011:Q1 then generally decrease together to about 0.5 in 2011:Q3. They generally increase together ending at about 0.75.
Figure: Exports and Imports
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2010:Q4 to 2012:Q4. There are four series, "Exports -- Current," "Exports - Previous Tealbook," "Imports -- Current," and "Imports -- Previous Tealbook." Exports -- current and Exports -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 7 and generally increase together to about 11 in 2007:Q4. They remain about constant until 2008:Q4 then generally decrease together to about -15 in 2009:Q2. They generally increase together to about 15 in 2010:Q2. Exports -- Current decreases to about 10 in 2010:Q4 and remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Exports -- Previous Tealbook decreases to about 9 in 2011:Q1 then remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Imports -- Current and Imports -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 4.5 and remain about constant until 2007:Q4. They generally decrease together to about -20 in 2009:Q2 then generally increase together to about 17 in 2010:Q2. Imports -- Current generally decreases to about 2.5 in 2011:Q3 then generally increases to about 6 in 2011:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 5. Imports -- Previous Tealbook generally decreases to about 2.5 in 2011:Q3 then generally increases ending at about 5.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Aspects of the Medium-Term Projection
Figure: Personal Saving Rate
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is percent. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 6.5 and generally increase together to about 7.5 in early 1991. They fluctuate but generally decrease together to about 4.5 in late 1997. They generally increase together to about 6 in early 1998 then generally decrease together to about 2 in early 2001. They generally increase together to about 4 in late 2001 then generally fluctuate together between about 3 and 4 until late 2004. They generally decrease together to about 1 in mid-2005 then generally increase together to about 7 in mid-2009. They fluctuate but generally decrease together ending at about 5.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Wealth-to-income ratio
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is ratio. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 4.8 and generally increase together to about 6.2 in early 2000. They generally decrease together to about 5.0 in late mid-2002 then generally increase together to about 6.4 in late 2005. They generally decrease together to about 4.4 in early 2009 then fluctuate but generally increase together ending at about 4.8.
Note: Household net worth as a ratio to disposable personal income.
Source: For net worth, Federal Reserve Board, flow of funds data; for income, Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Single-Family Housing Starts
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is millions of units. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 1.00 and generally decrease to about 0.75 in early 1991. They generally increase together to about 1.75 in early 2006 then generally decrease together to about 0.25 in early 2009. They generally increase together ending at about 0.75.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure: Equipment and Software Spending
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is share of nominal GDP. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 7.5 and generally decrease together to about 6.5 in early 1993. They generally increase together to about 9.5 in mid-2000 then generally decrease together to about 7.5 in early 2004. They generally increase together to about 8.0 in early 2006 then generally decrease together to about 6.25 in early 2009. They generally increase together ending at about 8.0.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Federal Surplus/Deficit
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is share of nominal GDP. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about -3 and generally decrease to about -5 in late 1992. They generally increase together to about 3 in late 2000 then generally decrease together to about -3.5 in early 2004 then generally increase together to about -1 in mid-2007. They generally decrease together to about -11 in late 2009 then generally increase together ending at about -6.
Note: Share of federal government surplus/deficit is shown as a 4-quarter moving average.
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
Figure: Current Account Surplus/Deficit
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is share of nominal GDP. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about -1.5 then generally increase together to about 1 in early 1990. They generally decrease together to about -7 in late 2005 then generally increase together to about -2.5 in mid-2009 then generally decrease together to about -3.5 in mid-2010 then generally increase together ending at about -3.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Decomposition of Potential GDP
| Measure | 1974-1995 | 1996-2000 | 2001-2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potential GDP | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Previous Tealbook | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Selected contributions1 | |||||||
| Structural labor productivity | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Capital deepening | .7 | 1.5 | .7 | .3 | .4 | .7 | .9 |
| Previous Tealbook | .7 | 1.5 | .7 | .3 | .4 | .7 | .9 |
| Multifactor productivity | .5 | .9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Previous Tealbook | .5 | .9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Trend hours | 1.5 | 1.1 | .8 | .0 | .7 | .7 | .7 |
| Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 1.1 | .8 | .0 | .7 | .7 | .7 |
| Labor force participation | .4 | .0 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 |
| Previous Tealbook | .4 | .0 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 | -.2 |
Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown.
1. Percentage points. Return to table
Source: Staff assumptions.
Figure: Nonfarm Business Productivity
Line chart, 2001 to 2012. Unit is chained (2005) dollars per hour. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2010:Q4 to 2012:Q4. The series begins at about 44 and fluctuates but generally increases ending at about 58. There is a second series labeled "Structural Productivity" that begins at about 44 and generally increases in a smooth line ending at about 58.
Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate
Line chart, 2001 to 2012. Unit is percent. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period 2011:Q1 to 2012:Q4. The series begins at about 67 and generally decreases to about 66 in 2005:Q1. It generally increases to about 66.25 in 2007:Q1 then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 64.5 in 2010:Q4. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline. There is a second series labeled "Trend" that begins at about 66.75 and generally decreases ending at about 65.
Source: For both figures, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; staff assumptions.
The Outlook for the Labor Market
| Measure | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output per hour, nonfarm business | 6.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Previous Tealbook | 6.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Nonfarm private employment | -4.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| Previous Tealbook | -4.7 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Labor force participation rate1 | 64.9 | 64.5 | 64.6 | 64.6 |
| Previous Tealbook | 64.9 | 64.5 | 64.6 | 64.6 |
| Civilian unemployment rate1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 7.8 |
| Previous Tealbook | 10.0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| Memo: | ||||
| GDP gap2 | -6.7 | -6.3 | -5.1 | -3.3 |
| Previous Tealbook | -6.7 | -6.6 | -5.5 | -3.7 |
Note: A negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential.
1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter. Return to table
2. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; staff assumptions.
Figure: Private Payroll Employment, Average Monthly Changes
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is thousands. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period early 2011 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 200 and generally decrease together to about -200 in early 1991. They generally increase together to about 300 in mid-1994 then generally decrease together to about 100 in mid-1995. They fluctuate but generally increase together to about 300 in early 2000 then generally decrease together to about -350 in late 2001. They generally increase together to about 300 in early 2006 then generally decrease together to about -800 in early 2009. They generally increase ending at about 300.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is thousands. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period early 2011 to late 2012. There are four series, "Current," "Previous Tealbook," "NAIRU," and "NAIRU with EEB Adjustment." Current and Previous Tealbook begin at about 5.5 and generally increase together to about 7.5 in mid-1992. They generally decrease to about 4 in mid-2000 then generally increase together to about 6 in mid-2003. They generally decrease together to about 4.5 in early 2007 then generally increase together to about 10 in late 2009. They generally decrease together ending at about 8. NAIRU begins at about 6 and generally decreases to about 5 in early 1994. It remains about constant until late 2008 then generally increases to about 6 in late 2009. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline. NAIRU with EEB adjustment begins at about 6 and generally decreases to about 5 in early 1994. It remains about constant until late 2008 then generally increases to about 7 in late 2009. It generally decreases ending at about 6.
Note: The EEB adjustment is the staff estimate of the effect of extended and emergency unemployment compensation programs on the NAIRU.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; staff assumptions.
Figure: GDP Gap
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is percent. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period early 2011 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 1 and generally decrease together to about -3 in early 1992. They generally increase together to about 4 in mid-2000 then generally decrease together to about -2.5 in early 2003. They generally increase together to about 0.5 in early 2006 then generally decrease together to about -7.5 in mid-2009. They generally increase together ending at about -3.
Note: The GDP gap is the percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; staff assumptions.
Figure: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is percent. Average Rate from 1972 to 2009 is marked by a horizontal line at about 79. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period early 2011 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 82.5 and generally decrease together to about 78 in early 1991. They generally increase together to about 85 in early 1995 then fluctuate but generally decrease together to about 72 in late 2001. They generally increase together to about 80 in mid-207 then generally decrease together to about 65 in mid-2009. They generally increase together ending at about 79.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Inflation Projections
| Measure | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCE chain-weighted price index | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Previous Tealbook | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | .9 |
| Food and beverages | -1.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Previous Tealbook | -1.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Energy | 2.7 | 6.3 | 6.2 | .1 |
| Previous Tealbook | 2.7 | 5.7 | 3.8 | .0 |
| Excluding food and energy | 1.7 | .8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Previous Tealbook | 1.7 | .9 | .9 | .9 |
| Prices of core goods imports1 | -1.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| Previous Tealbook | -1.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
1. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Total PCE Prices
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." The series begin at about 4 and generally increase together to about 5.5 in early 1991. They generally decrease together to about 2 in late 1994. They fluctuate but generally increase together to about 4.5 in mid-2008 then generally decrease together to about -1 in late 2009. They generally increase together to about 2.5 in mid-2010 then generally decrease together ending at about 1.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: PCE Prices ex. Food and Energy
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. 4-quarter percent change. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are four series, "Current," "Previous Tealbook," "Market based - Current" and "Market based - Previous Tealbook." Current and Previous Tealbook begin at about 3.75 and generally increase together to about 4.5 in late 1990. They fluctuate but generally decrease together to about 1.25 in mid-1997 then fluctuate but generally increase together to about 2.5 in mid-2008 then generally decrease together ending at about 1. Market based - Current and Market based - Previous Tealbook begin at about 4.5 and generally increase together to about 4.75 in late 1990. They generally decrease together to about 1 in early 1997 then fluctuate but generally increase together to about 2.5 in early 2009. They generally decrease together ending at about 1.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure: Compensation per Hour
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There is a blue shaded bar marking the time period late 2010 to late 2012. There are four series, "Productivity and Costs - Current," "Productivity and Costs - Previous Tealbook," "Employment Cost Index - Current" and "Employment Cost Index - Previous Tealbook." Productivity and Costs -- Current and Productivity and Costs - Previous Tealbook begin at about 4.5 and generally increase together to about 7 in late 1990. They generally decrease together to about 1 in early 1995 then fluctuate but generally increase together to about 9 in early 2000. They generally decrease together to about 2 in early 2002 then fluctuate but generally decrease to about 0 in early 2009. They generally increase together to about 3.5 in early 2010 then fluctuate but generally decrease together ending at about 2. Employment Cost Index - Current and Employment Cost Index - Previous Tealbook begin at about 5 and generally decrease together to about 2.5 in late 1995. They generally increase together to about 5in late 2000 then generally decrease together to about 1 in late 2009. They generally increase together ending at about 2.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Long-Term Inflation Expectations
Line chart, 1990 to 2012. Unit is percent. The end of the upper series is labeled January (preliminary). The end of the lower series is labeled Q4. There are two series, "Thomson Reuters/Michigan next 5 to 10 years" and "SPF next 10 years." Thomson Reuters/Michigan next 5 to 10 years begins at about 4 and generally increases to about 4.75 in late 1990. It fluctuates but generally decreases to about 2.75 in late 1998 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 3.5 in early 2008. It fluctuates but generally decreases ending at about 2.75. SPF next 10 years begins at about 4 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 2 in late 1998. It fluctuates but remains about constant to the end of the timeline.
Note: The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projection is for the CPI.
Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Note: The gray shaded bars indicate a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
[Box:] Pass-Through of Industrial Commodity Prices to Core Inflation
Measures of Crude, Intermediate, and Consumer Price Inflation
Figure: Core Producer Prices
Line chart, 1978 to 2010. Unit is 12-month percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are blue shaded bars marking the time periods mid-1978 to early 1980, mid-1983 to mid-1984, early 1987 to mid-1989, mid-1992 to mid-1994, late 1999 to late 2000, early 2002 to late 2008, and late 2009 to late 2010. There are two series, "Crude" and "Intermediate." Crude begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 30 in mid-1979. It fluctuates but generally decreases to about -15 in late 1982 then generally increases to about 18 in early 1984. It generally decreases to about -10 in mid-1985 then generally increases to about 20 in early 1995. It generally decreases to about -15 in mid-1996 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 35 in late 2008. It generally decreases to about -40 in early 2009 then generally increases to about 50 in mid-2010. It generally decreases ending at about 30. Intermediate begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 15 in early 1980. It generally fluctuates between about 0 and about 10 until late 2008 then generally decreases to about -10 in late 2009. It generally increases ending at about 5.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Core PCE Prices and Core Intermediate Producer Prices
Line chart, 1978 to 2010. Unit is 12-month percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are blue shaded bars marking the time periods mid-1978 to early 1980, mid-1983 to mid-1984, early 1987 to mid-1989, mid-1992 to mid-1994, late 1999 to late 2000, early 2002 to late 2008, and late 2009 to late 2010. There are two series, "PCE" and "Intermediate." PCE begins at about 7 and generally increases to about 10 in early 1981. It fluctuates but generally decreases ending at about 1. Intermediate begins at about 7 and generally increases to about 15 in early 1980. It fluctuates but generally decreases to about -1 in mid-1986. It generally increases to about 7 in mid-1988 then generally decreases to about -1 in early 1992. It generally increases to about 8 in late 1994 then fluctuates but generally decreases to about -2 in early 2002. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 13 in late 2008 then generally decreases to about -8 in late 2999 then generally increases to about 6 in early 2010. It generally decreases ending at about 5.
Note: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) prices in December 2010 are staff estimates. Shaded areas indicate periods of significant core crude producer price index (PPI) inflation.
Source: For PCE, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for producer prices, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Long-Term Outlook
| Item | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Civilian unemployment rate1 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| PCE prices, total | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Core PCE prices | .8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Federal funds rate1 | .2 | .1 | .1 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| 10-year Treasury yield1 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, 2002 to 2015. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Potential GDP" and "Real GDP." Potential GDP begins at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 2 in early 2005. It generally increases ending at about 3. Real GDP begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 4 in mid-2004. It generally decreases to about -4 in mid-2009 then generally increases to about 4.75 in late 2014. It generally decreases ending at about 3.25.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, 2002 to 2015. Unit is percent. The series begins at about 6 and generally increases to about 6.25 in late 2003. It generally decreases to about 4.5 in late 2006 then generally increases to about 10 in late 2009. It generally decreases ending at about 5. There are two additional series, "NAIRU with EEB adjustment" and "NAIRU." NAIRU with EEB adjustment begins at about 5 and remains about constant until early 2008. It generally increases to about 6.75 in late 2009 then generally decreases ending at about 5. NAIRU begins at about 5 and remains about constant until mid-2008. It generally increases to about 6 in late 2009 then remains about constant until late 2012. It generally decreases ending at about 5.
Figure: PCE Prices
Line chart, 2002 to 2015. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. There are two series, "Total PCE prices" and "PCE prices excluding food and energy." Total PCE prices begins at about 1 and generally increases to about 2.5 in early 2003. It generally decreases to about 3 in late 2003 then generally increases to about 3.25 in late 2005. It generally decreases to about 2 in early 2007 then generally increases to about 4.5 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about -1 in mid-2009 then generally increases to about 2.5 in mid-2010. It generally decreases to about 1.25 in early 2011 then generally increases to about 1.5 in mid-2011. It generally decreases to about 1 in late 2012 then generally increases ending at about 1.75. PCE prices excluding food and energy begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 2 in late 2002. It generally decreases to about 1.5 in early 2004 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 2.5 in late 2008. It generally decreases to about 1.5 in mid-2009 then generally increases to about 2 in early 2010. It generally decreases to about 0.75 in 2011 then generally increases ending at about 1.5.
Figure: Interest Rates
Line chart, 2002 to 2015. Unit is percent. There are three series, "BBB corporate," "10-year Treasury," and "Federal funds rate." BBB corporate begins at about 7.75 and generally decreases to about 5.5 in early 2004. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 9.5 in early 2009 then generally decreases to about 5 in late 2010. It generally increases ending at about 6.75. 10-year Treasury begins at about 5.5 and generally decreases to about 3.75 in mid-2003. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 5 in early 2006 then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 3 in mid-2010. It generally increases ending at about 5. Federal funds rate begins at about 1.75 and generally decreases to about 1 in mid-2003. It remains about constant until mid-2004 then generally increases to about 5.25 in early 2006. It remains about constant until mid-2007 then generally decreases to about 0 in early 2009. It remains about constant until late 2012 then generally increases ending at about 4.
Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period (beginning in 2010:Q4).
Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Change in Real GDP
Line chart, Tealbook publication dates January 22, 2009 through December 7, 2011. Unit is percent, Q4/Q4. There are three series, "2010," "2011," and "2012." 2010 begins at about 2.75 and generally decreases to about 1.5 on March 12, 2009. It generally increases to about 3.5 on September 16, 2009 then fluctuates between about 3 and 3.5 until April 21, 2010. It generally decreases to about 2.5 on September 15, 2010 then generally increases ending at about 3 on January 19, 2011. 2011 begins at about 4.5 on September 16, 2009 and generally increases to about 4.75 on January 20, 2010. It generally decreases to about 3.25 on September 15, 2010 then generally increases ending at about 3.75 on January 19, 2011. 2012 begins at about 4.5 on September 15, 2010 then generally increases to about 4.75 on October 27, 2010. It generally decreases to about 4.5 on December 8, 2010 and remains about constant ending on January 19, 2011.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, Tealbook publication dates January 22, 2009 through December 7, 2011. Unit is percent, fourth quarter. There are three series, "2010," "2011," and "2012." 2010 begins at about 8.0 and generally increases to about 9.5 on March 12, 2009. It generally decreases to about 9.0 on April 22, 2009 then generally fluctuates between about 9.5 and 9.0 until August 4, 2010. It remains about constant at 9.5 until it ends on January 19, 2011. 2011 begins at about 8.0 on September 16, 2009 and generally increases to about 9.25 on September 15, 2010. It generally decreases to about 9 on December 8, 2010 and remains about constant ending on January 19, 2011. 2012 begins at about 8.1 on September 15, 2010 and generally decreases to about 7.8 on October 27, 2010. It generally increases to about 8.0 on December 8, 2010 and generally decreases ending at about 7.75 on January 19, 2011.
Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, Tealbook publication dates January 22, 2009 through December 7, 2011. Unit is percent, Q4/Q4. There are three series, "2010," "2011," and "2012." 2010 begins at about 0.75 and generally decreases to about 0.5 on March 12, 2009. It generally increases to about 1.0 on January 20, 2011 then generally decreases to about 0.75 on June 16, 2010. It generally increases to about 1.25 on August 4, 2010 then remains about constant until October 27, 2010. It generally decreases ending at about 0.75 on January 19, 2011. 3022 begins at about 0.9 on September 16, 2009 then generally increases to about 1.1 on December 9, 2009. It remains about constant until January 20, 2010 then generally decreases to about 0.75 on June 16, 2010. It generally increases to about 1.0 on October 27, 2010 then generally decreases to about 0.75 on December 8, 2010. It generally increases ending at about 1.0 on January 19, 2011. 2012 begins at about 0.75 on September 15, 2010 then generally increases to about 1.0 on October 27, 2010. It generally decreases to about 0.75 on December 8, 2010 then generally increases ending at about 1.0 on January 19, 2011.
Note: Because the core PCE price index was redefined as part of the comprehensive revisions to the NIPA, projections prior to the August 2009 Tealbook are not strictly comparable with more recent projections.
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text