Accessible Material
January 2011 Tealbook A Tables and Charts†
International Economic Developments and Outlook
Recent Foreign Indicators
Figure: Nominal Exports
Line chart, 2006 to 2011. Unit is an index, January 2006 = 100. 100 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are three series, "Foreign," "AFE," and "EME (excludes Venezuela)." Foreign begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 150 in late 2008. It generally decreases to about 100 in early 2009 then generally increases ending at about 140. AFE begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 145 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about 90 in early 2009 then generally increases ending at about 130. EME begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 160 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about 105 in early 2009 then generally increases ending at about 155.
Figure: Industrial Production
Line chart, 2006 to 2011. Unit is an index, January 2006 = 100. 100 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are three series, "Foreign," "AFE (excludes Australia and Switzerland)," and "EME (excludes Hong Kong and Venezuela)." Foreign begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 105 in early 2008. It generally decreases to about 90 in early 2009 then generally increase to about 105 in early 2010. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline. AFE begins at about 100 and remains about constant until late 2006. It generally increases to about 1.25 in late 2007 then generally decreases to about 85 in early 2009. It generally increases ending at about 90. EME begins at about 100 and generally increases to about 115 in early 2008. It generally decreases to about 100 in early 2009 then generally increases to about 122 in early 2010. It generally decreases ending at about 120.
Figure: Retail Sales
Line chart, 2006 to 2011. Unit is 12-month percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are three series, "Foreign," "AFE (excludes Australia and Switzerland)," and "EME (Includes Brazil, China, Israel, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan)." Foreign begins at about 2.5 and fluctuates but generally increases to about 5 in early 2008. It generally decreases to about -2.5 in early 2009 then generally increases to about 5 in early 2010. It generally decreases ending at about 2.5.
Figure: Employment
Line chart, 2006 to 2011. Unit is 4-month percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are three series, "Foreign," "AFE," and "EME." Foreign begins at about 2 and fluctuates but remains about constant until late 2007. It generally increases to about 2.5 in early 2008 then generally decreases to about -1 in early 2009. It generally increases to about 1.5 and remains constant to the end of the timeline. AFE begins at about 1.5 and generally increases to about 2 in early 2008. It generally decreases to about -2 in mid-2009 then generally increases ending at about 1. EME begins at about 2.75 and generally decreases to about 2 in late 2007. It generally increases to about 2.5 in mid-2010 then generally decreases ending at about 2.
Figure: Consumer Prices: Advanced foreign economies
Line chart, 2006 to 2011. Unit is 12-month percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Headline" and "Core (excludes all food and energy; staff calculation)." Headline begins at about 2 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 1 in late 2006. It fluctuates but generally increases to about 3.5 in late 2008 then generally decreases to about -1 in mid-2009. It generally increases ending at about 1.75. Core begins at about 1 and generally increases to about 1.5 in early 2008. It fluctuates but generally decreases to about 0.5 in late 2009 then generally increases ending at about 1.
Note: Excludes Australia, Sweden, and Switzerland.
Source: Haver Analytics and CEIC.
Figure: Consumer Prices: Emerging Market Economies
Line chart, 2006 to 2011. Unit is 12-month percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are three series, "Headline," "Ex. Food -- East Asia (excludes India)," and "Ex. Food -- Latin America." Headline begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 7 in late 2008. It generally decreases to about 1 in mid-2009 then generally increases ending at about 4.5. Ex. Food -- East Asia begins at about 2 and generally increases to about 4 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about -2 in mid-2009 then then generally increases ending at about 2. Ex. Food -- Latin America begins at about 4 and generally decreases to about 3.5 in early 2007. It generally increases to about 5.5 in late 2008 then generally decreases to about 4 in late 2009. It generally increases to about 4.5 in late 2010 and remains about constant to the end of the timeline.
The Foreign Outlook
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012p | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | Q3 | Q4e | Q1p | Q2p | H2p | ||
| Real GDP | |||||||
| Total foreign | 5.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Previous Tealbook | 5.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Advanced foreign economies | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Previous Tealbook | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Emerging market economies | 7.9 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Previous Tealbook | 7.8 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Consumer Prices | |||||||
| Total foreign | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Previous Tealbook | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Advanced foreign economies | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Previous Tealbook | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Emerging market economies | 3.6 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Previous Tealbook | 3.6 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
Note: Annualized percent change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated.
Figure: Real GDP [Total Foreign]
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." Both series begin at about 5 and generally decrease together to about -10 in early 2009. They generally increase together to about 5 in early 2010 then generally decrease together to about 2.5 in mid-2010. They generally increase together to about 4 in late 2010 and remain about constant to the end of the timeline.
Figure: Real GDP [Emerging Market Economies and Advanced Foreign Economies]
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are four series, "Emerging Market Economies -- Current," "Emerging Market Economies -- Previous Tealbook," "Advanced Foreign Economies -- Current," and "Advanced Foreign Economies -- Previous Tealbook." Emerging Market Economies -- Current and Emerging Market Economies -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 7.5 and generally decrease together to about -10 in early 2009. They generally increase together to about 10 in mid-2009 then generally decrease together to about 2.5 in mid-2010. They generally increase together to about 5 in late 2010 and remain about constant to the end of the timeline. Advanced Foreign Economies -- Current and Advance Foreign Economies -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 4 and generally decrease together to about -10 in late 2008. They generally increase together to about 2.5 in early 2010 then generally decrease together to about 3 in late 2010. They remain about constant to the end of the timeline.
Figure: Consumer Prices [Total Foreign]
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Current" and "Previous Tealbook." Both series begin at about 4 and generally increase together to about 5 in early 2008. They generally decrease together to about -1 in late 2008 then generally increase together to about 4 in early 2010. They generally decrease together to about 1.5 in mid-2010. Current generally increases to about 5.5 in late 2010 then generally decreases to about 2 in mid-2011. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Previous Tealbook increases to about 4 in late 2010 then generally decreases to about 2 in mid-2011. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline.
Figure: Consumer Prices [Emerging Market Economies and Advanced Foreign Economies]
Line chart, 2007 to 2012. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are four series, "Emerging Market Economies -- Current," "Emerging Market Economies -- Previous Tealbook," "Advanced Foreign Economies -- Current," and "Advanced Foreign Economies -- Previous Tealbook." Emerging Market Economies -- Current and Emerging Market Economies -- Previous Tealbook begin at about 4 and generally increase together to about 8 in early 2008. They generally decrease together to about 0 in early 2009 then generally increase together to about 5 in early 2010. They generally decrease together to about 2.5 in mid-2010. Emerging Market Economies -- Current generally increases to about 6.5 in late 2010 then generally decreases to about 3.5 in early 2011. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Emerging Market Economies -- Previous Tealbook generally increases to about 4.5 in late 2010 then generally decreases to about 3.5 in early 2011. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline.
[Box:] The Cost of Deflation: The Japanese Experience
Figure: Actual and Expected Inflation
Line chart, 1991 to 2009. Unit is year-over-year percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are three series, "Wage Inflation (scheduled cash earnings per employee)," "5-year ahead CPI inflation," and "CPI Inflation (consumer price index (CPI) adjusted by staff to exclude the 1997 value-added tax hike)." Wage inflation begins at about 4.5 and generally decreases to about -0.5 in 1999 then generally increases to about 0.5 in 2000. It generally decreases to about -2 in 2002 then generally increases to about 0.25 in 2005. It fluctuates but generally decreases ending at about -1. 5-Year ahead CPI inflation begins at about 2.5 and fluctuates but generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2003. It generally increases to about 2 in 2006 then generally decreases ending at about 1. CPI inflation begins at about 3.25 and generally decreases to about 0 in 1995. It generally increases to about 0.5 in 1997 then generally decreases to about -1 in 2002. It generally increases to about 0 in 2004 then generally decreases to about -0.75 in 2005. It generally increases to about 1.5 in 2008 then generally decreases ending at about -1.25.
Source: Haver Analytics and Consensus Economics.
Figure: Policy Rate
Line chart, 1990 to 2010. Unit is percent. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Actual" and "Counterfactual (no zero lower bound)." Actual begins at about 6.5 and generally increases to about 8 in 1991. It generally decreases to about 0 in 1999 and remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Counterfactual begins at about 3 in 1994 and generally decreases to about -1 in 1998. It generally increases to about 1.5 in 2000 then generally decreases to about -0.5 in 2002. It generally increases to about .25 in 2003 then generally decreases to about -2 in 2009. It generally increases ending at about -0.5.
Source: Haver Analytics and staff estimates.
Figure: GDP
Line chart, 1990 to 2010. Unit is trillions of chained 2002 Yen. There are two series, "Actual" and "Counterfactual (no zero lower bound)." Actual begins at about 430 and generally increases to about 500 in 1996. It generally decreases to about 480 in 1998 then generally increases to about 570 in 2007. It generally decreases to about 500 in 2009 then generally increases ending at about 540. Counterfactual begins at about 470 in 1994 and generally increases to about 570 in 2007. It generally decreases to about 520 in 2009 then generally increases ending at about 570.
Source: Haver Analytics and staff estimates.
Evolution of Staff's International Forecast
Figure: Total Foreign GDP
Line chart, Tealbook publication dates 1/22/2009 to 12/7/2011. Unit is percent change, Q4/Q4. There are three series, "2010," "2011," and "2012." 2010 begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 2.25 on 3/12/2009. It generally increases ending at about 4 on 1/19/2011. 2011 begins at about4 on 9/16/2009 and generally decreases to about 3 on 12/8/2011. It generally increases ending at about 3.5 on 1/19/2011. 2012 begins at about 3.5 on 9/15/2010 and fluctuates but remains about constant ending on 1/19/2011.
Figure: Total Foreign CPI
Line chart, Tealbook publication dates 1/22/2009 to 12/7/2011. Unit is percent change, Q4/Q4. There are three series, "2010," "2011," and "2012." 2010 begins at about 2.0 and generally decreases to about 1.5 on 3/12/2009. It generally increases to about 2.75 on 4/21/2010 then generally decreases to about 2.25 on 8/4/2010. It generally increases ending at about 3.0 on 1/19/2011. 2010 begins at about 1.75 on 9/16/2009 and generally increases ending at about 2.75 on 1/19/2011. 2012 begins at about 2.25 on 9/15/2011 and remains about constant ending on 1/19/2011.
Figure: U.S. Current Account Balance
Line chart, Tealbook publication dates 1/22/2009 to 12/7/2011. Unit is percent of GDP. There are three series, "2010," "2011," and "2012." 2010 begins at about -3.5 and generally decreases to about -4 on 3/12/2009. It generally increases to about -3 on 10/29/2009then fluctuates but remains about constant until 9/15/2010. It generally decreases ending at about -3.5 on 1/19/2011. 2011 begins at about -3 on 9/16/2009 and generally decreases to about -3.25 on 6/16/2010. It generally increases to about -3 on 8/4/2010 then generally decreases to about -3.25 on 12/8/2010. It generally increases ending at about -3 on 1/19/2011. 2012 begins at about -2.75 on 9/15/2010 and generally decreases to about -3 on 12/8/2010. It generally increases ending at about -2.5 on 1/19/2011.
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text