Accessible Material
January 2011 Tealbook A Tables and Charts†
Risks and Uncertainty
Alternative Scenarios
| Measure and scenario | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014-15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 | |||||
| Real GDP | |||||
| Extended Tealbook baseline | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Stronger expansion | 3.2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Higher inflation | 3.2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| Intensified real estate slump | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| With spillovers | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.0 |
| Further disinflation | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Severe European recession | 3.2 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Foreign boom with higher oil prices | 3.2 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Unemployment rate1 | |||||
| Extended Tealbook baseline | 9.6 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 5.3 |
| Stronger expansion | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Higher inflation | 9.6 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Intensified real estate slump | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 6.0 |
| With spillovers | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 6.3 |
| Further disinflation | 9.6 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 5.1 |
| Severe European recession | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 5.9 |
| Foreign boom with higher oil prices | 9.6 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| Core PCE inflation | |||||
| Extended Tealbook baseline | .5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Stronger expansion | .5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Higher inflation | .5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Intensified real estate slump | .5 | 1.0 | .9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| With spillovers | .5 | 1.0 | .8 | .7 | .7 |
| Further disinflation | .5 | .5 | .1 | -.1 | -.3 |
| Severe European recession | .5 | .4 | .4 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Foreign boom with higher oil prices | .5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Federal funds rate1 | |||||
| Extended Tealbook baseline | .2 | .1 | .1 | 1.7 | 4.1 |
| Stronger expansion | .2 | .7 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Higher inflation | .2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Intensified real estate slump | .2 | .1 | .1 | .3 | 2.7 |
| With spillovers | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | 2.2 |
| Further disinflation | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | 1.9 |
| Severe European recession | .2 | .1 | .1 | .9 | 3.6 |
| Foreign boom with higher oil prices | .2 | .1 | .4 | 1.9 | 4.0 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios
Confidence Intervals Based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, 2008 to 2015. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Stronger Expansion," "Higher inflation," "Intensified real estate slump," "with spillovers," "Further disinflation," "Severe European recession," and "Foreign boom with higher oil prices." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about -4 in 2009:Q2. It generally increases to about 4.5 in 2014:Q4 then generally decreases ending at about 3.5. Stronger expansion begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 5.5 in 2012:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 2.25. Higher inflation begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 6 in 2012:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 2. Intensified real estate slump begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 4.75 in 2014:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 3.75. With spillovers begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 2 in 2012:Q1. It generally increases to about 5.25 in 2014:Q1 then generally decreases ending at about 4.75. Further disinflation begins at about 4 and generally increases to about 5 in 2014:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 4.25. Severe European recession begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 2.5 in 2012:Q1. It generally increases to about 5 in 2014:Q4 then generally decreases ending at about 4. Foreign boom with higher oil prices begins at about 3 and generally increases to about 5 in 2012:Q1. It generally decreases ending at about 3. 70 percent interval is presented as a dark gray range that begins at about 3 and generally increases to a range of about [1.5, 7]. It generally decreases ending at about [1.5, 5.5]. 90 percent interval is presented as a light gray range that begins at about 3 then generally increases to a range of about [1, 7]. It generally decreases to about [.5, 7] then generally increases to about [1, 8]. It generally decreases ending at about [0, 7].
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, 2008 to 2015. Unit is percent. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Stronger Expansion," "Higher inflation," "Intensified real estate slump," "with spillovers," "Further disinflation," "Severe European recession," and "Foreign boom with higher oil prices." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 5.0 and generally increases to about 10.0 in 2009:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 5.5. Stronger expansion begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at about 5.0. Higher inflation begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases to about 4.5 in 2015:Q1. It generally increases ending at about 5.0. Intensified real estate slump begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at about 6.0. With spillovers begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at about 6.5. Further disinflation begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at about 5.0. Severe European recession begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at about 6.0. Foreign boom with higher oil prices begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at about 5.25. 70-percent interval is presented as a dark gray range that begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at a range of about [4.5, 6.5]. 90-percent interval is presented as a light gray range that begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at a range of about [3.5, 7.25].
Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
Line chart, 2008 to 2015. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Stronger Expansion," "Higher inflation," "Intensified real estate slump," "with spillovers," "Further disinflation," "Severe European recession," and "Foreign boom with higher oil prices." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 2.5 and generally decreases to about 1.25 in 2009:Q3. It generally increases to about 1.75 in 2009:Q4 then generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2010:Q4. It generally increases ending at about 1.5. Stronger Expansion begins at about 0.75 and generally increases ending at about 2.0. Higher inflation begins at about 0.75 and generally increases to about 3.0 in 2014:Q2. It generally decreases ending at about 2.75. Intensified real estate slump begins at about 0.75 and generally increases ending at about 1.25. With spillovers begins at about 0.75 and generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2014:Q1. It generally increases ending at about 0.75. Further disinflation begins at about 0.75 and generally decreases ending at about -0.25. Severe European Recession begins at about 0.75 and generally decreases to about 0.25 in 2012:Q1. It generally increases ending at about 1.5. Foreign boom with higher oil prices begins at about 0.75 and generally increases to about 1.5 in 2011:Q4. It generally decreases to about 1.0 in 2013:Q3 then generally increases ending at about 1.5. 70-percent interval is presented as a dark gray range that begins at about 0.75 and generally increases ending at about [0.5, 2.5]. 90-percent interval is presented as a light gray range that begins at about 0.75 and generally increases ending at about [0.0, 3.25].
Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Line chart, 2008 to 2015. Unit is percent. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Stronger Expansion," "Higher inflation," "Intensified real estate slump," "with spillovers," "Further disinflation," "Severe European recession," and "Foreign boom with higher oil prices." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 0 in 2009:Q1. It remains about constant until 2012:Q4 then generally increases ending at about 4. Stronger Expansion begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 4.25 in 2014:Q1. It generally decreases ending at about 4. Higher inflation begins at about 0 and generally increases to about 7 in 2014:Q1. It generally decreases ending at about 5.75. Intensified Real Estate slump begins at about 0 and remains about constant until 2013:Q3. It generally increases ending at about 3. With spill overs begins at about 0 and remains about constant until 2014:Q1. It generally increases ending at about 2. Further disinflation begins at about 0 and remains about constant until 2014:Q1. It generally increases ending at about 2. Severe European recession begins at about 0 and remains about constant until 2013:Q1. It generally increases ending at about 3.5. Foreign boom with high oil prices begins at about 0 and generally increases ending at about 4. 70-percent interval is presented as a dark gray range that begins at about 0 and generally increases ending at about [2, 6]. 90 percent interval is presented as a light gray range that begins at about 0 and increases ending at about [1, 7.25].
Selected Tealbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Tealbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations
| Measure | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | |||||
| Projection | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Confidence interval | |||||
| Tealbook forecast errors | 2.3-5.4 | 2.8-6.1 | … | … | … |
| FRB/US stochastic simulations | 2.7-5.2 | 2.6-6.2 | 2.2-6.1 | 2.4-6.7 | 1.5-5.7 |
| Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4) | |||||
| Projection | 8.9 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| Confidence interval | |||||
| Tealbook forecast errors | 8.3-9.5 | 6.8-8.8 | … | … | … |
| FRB/US stochastic simulations | 8.4-9.4 | 6.8-8.8 | 6.0-8.2 | 5.0-7.3 | 4.3-6.5 |
| PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | |||||
| Projection | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Confidence interval | |||||
| Tealbook forecast errors | .3-2.3 | -.1-2.1 | … | … | … |
| FRB/US stochastic simulations | .6-2.2 | -.1-2.2 | .1-2.5 | .2-2.7 | .4-3.0 |
| PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | |||||
| Projection | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Confidence interval | |||||
| Tealbook forecast errors | .4-1.5 | .2-1.8 | … | … | … |
| FRB/US stochastic simulations | .5-1.5 | .3-1.9 | .3-2.1 | .4-2.3 | .6-2.6 |
| Federal funds rate (percent, Q4) | |||||
| Projection | .1 | .1 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Confidence interval | |||||
| FRB/US stochastic simulations | .1-.7 | .1-2.4 | .2-3.7 | 1.4-5.5 | 2.1-6.2 |
Note: Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1969-2009 set of model equation residuals.
Intervals derived from Tealbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1979-2009, except for PCE prices excluding food and energy, where the sample is 1981-2009.
… Not applicable. The Tealbook forecast horizon has typically extended about 2 years. Return to table
Tealbook Forecast Compared with Blue Chip
(Blue Chip survey released January 10, 2011)
Figure: Real GDP
Line chart, 2008 to 2012. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff forecast." Staff forecast begins at about -1 and generally increases to about 1 in 2008:Q2. It generally decreases to about -7 in 2008:Q4 then generally increases to about 7.5 in 2009:Q3. It generally decreases to about 2 in 2010:Q2 then generally increases ending at about 4.5. Blue chip consensus begins at about 2 in 2010:Q1 then generally increases to about 4 in 2011:Q4. It generally decreases to about 3 in 2011:Q4 then generally increases ending at about 3.5. There is a red shaded range that begins at about 3 in 2010:Q3 and generally increases to about [2.5, 4.5]. It generally decreases ending at about [2.5, 4].
Note: The shaded area represents the area between the Blue chip top 10 and bottom 10 averages.
Figure: Real PCE
Line chart, 2008 to 2012. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff forecast." Staff forecast begins at about -1 and generally increases to about 0 in 2008:Q3. It generally decreases to about -4 in 2008:Q3 then fluctuates but generally increases to about 4 in 2010:Q3. It generally decreases to about 3 in 2011:Q1 then generally increases ending at about 4.25. Blue chip consensus begins at about 2 in 2010:Q3 and generally increases to about 4 in 2010:Q4. It fluctuates but generally decreases ending at about 3. There is a red shaded range that begins at about 2 in 2010:Q3 and generally increases to about [2.5, 4.5] in 2010:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about [2, 3.75].
Figure: Unemployment Rate
Line chart, 2008 to 2012. Unit is percent. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff forecast." Staff forecast begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 10 in 2009:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 8. Blue chip consensus begins at about 8 in 2010:Q4 hen generally decreases ending at about 8.25. There is a red shaded range that begins at about 9 in 2010:Q4 and generally decreases ending at about [7.75, 9].
Figure: Consumer Price Index
Line chart, 2008 to 2012. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff forecast." Staff forecast begins at about 4.5 and generally increases to about 6.5 in 2008:Q3. It generally decreases to about -10 in 2008:Q4 then generally increases to about 4 in 2009:Q3. It generally decreases to about -1 in 2010:Q2 then generally increases to about 3 in 2011:Q1. It generally decreases to about 1 in 2011:Q2 then remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Blue chip consensus begins at about 3 in 2010:Q3 then generally decreases to about 2 in 2011:Q1. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline. There is a red shaded range that begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about [0, 2] in 2011:Q1. It generally increases ending at about [1, 3.5].
Figure: Treasury Bill Rate
Line chart, 2008 to 2012. Unit is percent. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff forecast." Staff forecast begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about 0 in 2009:Q1. It fluctuates but remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Blue chip consensus begins at about 0 in 2010:Q4 then generally increases ending at about 2. There is a red shaded range that begins at about 0 in 2010:Q4 and generally increases ending at about [0.75, 3].
Figure: 10-Year Treasury Yield
Line chart, 2008 to 2012. Unit is percent. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff forecast." Staff forecast begins at about 3.5 and generally increases to about 4 in 2008:Q3. It generally decreases to about 2.5 in 2009:Q1 then generally increases to about 3.75 in 2010:Q1. It generally decreases to about 2.75 in 2010:Q3 then generally increases ending at about 4.25. Blue chip consensus begins at about 2.5 in 2010:Q3 and generally increases ending at about 4.5. There is a red shaded range that begins at about 2.5 in 2010:Q3 and generally increases ending at about [4.0, 5.0].
Note: The yield is for on-the-run Treasury securities. Over the forecast period, the staff's projected yield is assumed to be 15 basis points below the off-the-run yield.
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text