Abstract: Research on learning-by-doing has typically been restricted to
cases where estimation and control can be treated separately. Recent
work has provided convergence results for more general learning
problems where experimentation is an important aspect of optimal
control. However the associated optimal policy cannot
be derived analytically because Bayesian learning introduces a
nonlinearity in the dynamic programming problem. This paper
characterizes the optimal policy numerically and shows that it
incorporates a substantial degree of experimentation. Dynamic
simulations indicate that optimal experimentation dramatically
improves the speed of learning, while separating control and
estimation frequently induces a long-lasting bias in the control
and target variables.
Keywords: Bayesian optimal control, learning by doing, experimentation, dynamic programming
Full paper (692 KB PDF)
| Full paper (1582 KB Postscript)
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