Abstract: This paper demonstrates several strengths and shortcomings
of models of sectoral reallocation. Although such models demonstrate
that sectoral reallocation can be an important amplification and
propagation mechanism for exogenous shocks, they are essentially
unable to explain any effects of sectoral reallocation on aggregate
productivity or related quantities (such as the real wage or
observations of aggregate increasing returns to scale), unless a wedge
is introduced into the model that drives the marginal products of
inputs in different sectors apart in steady state. In particular,
costs of adjustment and lags to adjustment are not sufficient. This
paper offers a solution to the problem in the form of variable
sectoral capital utilization, the marginal product of which can differ
across sectors in steady state. Reallocations of production between
sectors in this setting are then shown to have first-order effects on
aggregate productivity and real wages, and can explain the
procyclicality of these variables without reliance on large,
exogenous, and persistent shocks to technology.
Keywords: Sectoral reallocation, sectoral shifts, procyclical productivity, capital utilization
Full paper (485 KB PDF)
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