The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
The Finance and Economics Discussion Series logo links to FEDS home page The Measurement of Consumer Expectations Using Survey Data
Martha Starr-McCluer
1999-17


Abstract: Surveys of consumers collect considerable information on consumer expectations. However, the simple categorical structure of the questions -- such as "Do you expect your income to rise, fall, or stay the same?" -- makes their value for research uncertain. This paper analyzes the information content of the survey measures. I draw on Manski's finding that, while categorical questions do not identify the probability of an event occurring, they do provide information on probability bounds. I analyze data from two well-known surveys, showing that, although the bounds are often wide, for some measures they move closely with the series they are intended to track or predict.

Keywords: Consumption, household behavior, expectations

Full paper (2177 KB PDF)


Home | Economic research and data | FR working papers | FEDS | 1999 FEDS papers
Accessibility
To comment on this site, please fill out our feedback form.
Last update: May 14, 1999