Abstract: The Federal Reserve and other central banks tend to change short-term
interest rates in sequences of small steps in the same direction and
reverse the direction of interest rate movements only infrequently. These
characteristics, often referred to as interest-rate smoothing, have led to
criticism that policy responds too little and too late to macroeconomic
developments, suggesting to some observers that the Federal Reserve has an
objective of minimizing interest-rate volatility. This paper, however,
argues that the observed degree of interest-rate smoothing may well
represent optimal behavior on the part of central banks whose only
objectives are to stabilize output and inflation. We summarize recent
research on three different explanations of interest-rate smoothing:
forward-looking behavior by market participants, measurement error
associated with key macroeconomic variables, and uncertainty regarding
relevant structural parameters.
Keywords: Interest-rate smoothing, monetary policy rules
Full paper (2752 KB PDF)
| Full paper (1259 KB Postscript)
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Last update: September 29, 1999
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