Abstract: This paper performs a Monte Carlo study on Efficient Method of Moments (EMM),
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation
(QMLE), and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for a continuous-time
square-root model under two challenging scenarios--high persistence in mean
and strong conditional volatility--that are commonly found in estimating the
interest rate process. MLE turns out to be the most efficient of the four
methods, but its finite sample inference and convergence rate suffer severely
from approximating the likelihood function, especially in the scenario of
highly persistent mean. QMLE comes second in terms of estimation efficiency,
but it is the most reliable in generating inferences. GMM with lag-augmented
moments has overall the lowest estimation efficiency, possibly due to the
ad hoc choice of moment conditions. EMM shows an accelerated convergence
rate in the high volatility scenario, while its overrejection bias in the mean
persistence scenario is unacceptably large. Finally, under a stylized
alternative model of the US interest rates, the overidentification test of EMM
obtains the ultimate power for detecting misspecification, while the GMM
J-test is increasingly biased downward in finite samples.
Keywords: Monte Carlo study, efficient method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation, square-root diffusion, quasi-maximum likelihood, generalized method of moments
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