Abstract: By extrapolating Gordon's (1990) measures of the quality-bias in the
official price indexes, we construct quality-adjusted price indexes
for 24 types of equipment and software (E&S) from 1947 to 2000 and use
them to measure technical change at the aggregate and at the industry
level. Technological improvement in E&S accounts for an important
fraction of postwar GDP growth and plays a key role in the
productivity resurgence of the 1990s. Driving this finding is 4
percent annual growth in the quality of E&S in the postwar period and
more than 6 percent annual growth in the 1990s. The acceleration in
the 1990s occurred in every industry, consistent with the idea that
information technology represents a general purpose technology.
Furthermore, we measure for the aggregate economy and different
sectors the "technological gap": how much more productive new machines
are compared to the average machine. We show that the technological
gap explains the dynamics of investment in new technologies and the
returns to human capital, consistent with Nelson and Phelps' (1966)
conjecture. Since the technological gap continues to increase --- it
more than doubled in the past 20 years --- our evidence supports the
view that at least some of the recent increase in productivity growth
is sustainable.
Keywords: Quality-adjusted prices, growth accounting, skill premium
Full paper (667 KB PDF)
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Last update: January 31, 2002
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