The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market

Regis Barnichon and Christopher J. Nekarda

Figure 1: Unemployment Rate Actual and Steady-State 1951-2012

	Unemployment rate	Steady-state	Deviation
1951q1	3.5155519	3.1785691	-0.33698272
1951q2	3.1113498	3.155964	0.04461414
1951q3	3.2023178	3.4253924	0.22307457
1951q4	3.3924579	3.2044438	-0.1880141
1952q1	3.0771039	2.9479732	-0.12913078
1952q2	2.9899731	3.1499194	0.1599463
1952q3	3.2286042	3.0982963	-0.13030794
1952q4	2.806255	2.8286515	0.02239648
1953q1	2.6872394	2.6051553	-0.0820841
1953q2	2.6082818	2.5608325	-0.04744938
1953q3	2.7287312	3.000309	0.27157788
1953q4	3.7133159	4.8050298	1.0917139
1954q1	5.2452368	5.9940389	0.74880212
1954q2	5.7952752	5.714022	-0.08125322
1954q3	5.9819213	6.0425807	0.06065943
1954q4	5.3725308	4.8268509	-0.54567992
1955q1	4.7229197	4.6226239	-0.10029579
1955q2	4.3926662	3.9863132	-0.40635297
1955q3	4.1219751	4.332202	0.21022694
1955q4	4.2215391	4.0644581	-0.15708099
1956q1	4.043932	4.0303865	-0.01354548
1956q2	4.202602	4.5058393	0.30323736
1956q3	4.1410501	3.7987675	-0.34228254
1956q4	4.1128413	4.3565217	0.24368043
1957q1	3.9597422	3.7800009	-0.17974136
1957q2	4.0746016	4.2758236	0.201222
1957q3	4.2195755	4.4580428	0.23846723
1957q4	4.935409	5.9912061	1.0557971
1958q1	6.2869361	7.8348976	1.5479615
1958q2	7.3719393	7.4633802	0.09144092
1958q3	7.3212281	6.6929043	-0.62832376
1958q4	6.36433	5.7961022	-0.56822787
1959q1	5.8110822	5.2632717	-0.54781052
1959q2	5.116785	5.0729786	-0.04380638
1959q3	5.2993088	5.7303247	0.43101595
1959q4	5.6056835	5.340874	-0.26480945
1960q1	5.1725573	5.2687183	0.09616106
1960q2	5.2379184	5.4722821	0.23436371
1960q3	5.5622135	6.0748805	0.51266709
1960q4	6.2634119	6.7231326	0.45972068
1961q1	6.7853758	7.04045	0.25507423
1961q2	6.9856176	7.0503741	0.06475654
1961q3	6.7612643	6.3604262	-0.40083803
1961q4	6.1835933	5.6572192	-0.52637414
1962q1	5.626891	5.434846	-0.19204504
1962q2	5.4949328	5.3992318	-0.09570104
1962q3	5.5509268	5.5592689	0.00834201
1962q4	5.5182282	5.823569	0.30534073
1963q1	5.7915221	5.7805347	-0.01098744
1963q2	5.6929471	5.7135257	0.0205786
1963q3	5.5059497	5.4520745	-0.0538752
1963q4	5.5848094	5.6429083	0.05809893
1964q1	5.4701368	5.3609833	-0.10915353
1964q2	5.2326122	4.9327255	-0.29988671
1964q3	5.0018573	5.1156863	0.11382899
1964q4	4.9659262	4.8287522	-0.13717405
1965q1	4.8840401	4.9302802	0.04624012
1965q2	4.6678953	4.4165196	-0.25137568
1965q3	4.3643538	4.2281512	-0.13620263
1965q4	4.11484	3.981489	-0.13335102
1966q1	3.8606465	3.7413665	-0.11928
1966q2	3.8201203	3.8639983	0.04387803
1966q3	3.7632503	3.7053001	-0.05795025
1966q4	3.6957377	3.8339739	0.13823619
1967q1	3.8223648	3.766707	-0.05565778
1967q2	3.8193135	3.858035	0.03872153
1967q3	3.7971929	3.9550305	0.15783754
1967q4	3.9285614	3.7249044	-0.20365703
1968q1	3.7407781	3.6211152	-0.11966292
1968q2	3.5498426	3.6771728	0.12733029
1968q3	3.5230253	3.3891538	-0.1338715
1968q4	3.4047073	3.4254922	0.02078484
1969q1	3.3895786	3.4163916	0.02681296
1969q2	3.4370109	3.516155	0.07914412
1969q3	3.6031115	3.7401094	0.13699791
1969q4	3.594461	3.7265237	0.13206269
1970q1	4.1713221	4.6128467	0.44152467
1970q2	4.75886	5.0502096	0.29134954
1970q3	5.1809714	5.5081408	0.32716938
1970q4	5.8140606	6.1574794	0.34341885
1971q1	5.9260167	5.9085344	-0.01748231
1971q2	5.9192682	5.9871503	0.06788209
1971q3	5.9946021	5.9318074	-0.06279471
1971q4	5.9651731	6.036599	0.07142591
1972q1	5.7940626	5.7449144	-0.04914823
1972q2	5.6845173	5.6469216	-0.03759571
1972q3	5.6099658	5.5839239	-0.02604192
1972q4	5.3305841	4.923096	-0.40748807
1973q1	4.9762073	5.0742406	0.09803331
1973q2	4.9155496	4.8103775	-0.10517211
1973q3	4.8186981	4.7087115	-0.10998658
1973q4	4.794194	5.1513736	0.3571796
1974q1	5.1101948	5.0953121	-0.01488263
1974q2	5.1861959	5.5040179	0.31782206
1974q3	5.6081354	5.9539499	0.34581452
1974q4	6.5802857	8.2348311	1.6545454
1975q1	8.2411173	8.9048682	0.66375089
1975q2	8.8523343	8.7874981	-0.06483617
1975q3	8.4913318	8.2854829	-0.20584889
1975q4	8.2831242	7.9593031	-0.32382114
1976q1	7.7470408	7.5729027	-0.1741381
1976q2	7.5501687	7.7206828	0.17051416
1976q3	7.7232413	7.6777119	-0.0455294
1976q4	7.7563124	7.662218	-0.09409442
1977q1	7.5160252	7.3665944	-0.14943076
1977q2	7.1275651	6.9601428	-0.16742232
1977q3	6.8871209	6.8449391	-0.0421818
1977q4	6.6354344	6.4565714	-0.17886293
1978q1	6.3223153	6.108157	-0.21415831
1978q2	5.9952047	6.0826768	0.08747212
1978q3	6.0169083	5.7855198	-0.23138846
1978q4	5.8789226	5.9865616	0.10763903
1979q1	5.8729477	5.8485399	-0.0244078
1979q2	5.7089934	5.6654626	-0.04353086
1979q3	5.8631825	6.0479156	0.18473312
1979q4	5.9347784	6.1914144	0.25663602
1980q1	6.2915193	6.7759443	0.48442503
1980q2	7.3178253	8.0278152	0.70998995
1980q3	7.6751194	7.4815101	-0.19360929
1980q4	7.3927821	7.4009533	0.00817117
1981q1	7.4208009	7.2795293	-0.1412716
1981q2	7.3929442	7.4060997	0.01315557
1981q3	7.4113576	7.9766575	0.56529986
1981q4	8.2348861	8.7660163	0.53113018
1982q1	8.8369189	9.4807417	0.64382279
1982q2	9.4193442	9.9110034	0.49165919
1982q3	9.9362797	10.508095	0.57181537
1982q4	10.669751	10.712644	0.04289236
1983q1	10.390264	10.159448	-0.23081547
1983q2	10.095396	9.5514549	-0.54394088
1983q3	9.3532381	8.880077	-0.47316108
1983q4	8.5348437	7.8936429	-0.64120087
1984q1	7.86455	7.6892973	-0.17525267
1984q2	7.4717025	7.3299072	-0.14179526
1984q3	7.4442795	7.3386658	-0.1056137
1984q4	7.2751509	7.3100465	0.03489562
1985q1	7.2720161	7.254688	-0.01732808
1985q2	7.2807604	7.3622258	0.08146533
1985q3	7.2024026	7.0721706	-0.13023197
1985q4	7.045814	6.7390947	-0.30671929
1986q1	7.0068357	7.4184539	0.41161822
1986q2	7.1716398	7.1467579	-0.02488188
1986q3	6.9821647	6.9435623	-0.03860233
1986q4	6.8262431	6.6092051	-0.21703798
1987q1	6.6116079	6.3998226	-0.21178529
1987q2	6.2715201	6.1086453	-0.16287485
1987q3	6.0047496	5.9854595	-0.01929007
1987q4	5.859466	5.7038244	-0.15564155
1988q1	5.7178533	5.5237329	-0.19412044
1988q2	5.4773748	5.4923107	0.01493582
1988q3	5.4823357	5.4760299	-0.0063057
1988q4	5.3401398	5.4056573	0.06551753
1989q1	5.2050076	5.1135256	-0.09148197
1989q2	5.2339228	5.2490068	0.01508405
1989q3	5.2666671	5.3392345	0.07256734
1989q4	5.3628366	5.4311664	0.06832983
1990q1	5.3004607	5.3292105	0.02874989
1990q2	5.3375996	5.4206444	0.08304482
1990q3	5.687737	5.9982054	0.31046847
1990q4	6.1140452	6.4446615	0.33061628
1991q1	6.574435	6.841896	0.26746094
1991q2	6.8242054	6.9187156	0.09451018
1991q3	6.8540875	7.0181783	0.16409081
1991q4	7.0974989	7.3978163	0.30031741
1992q1	7.3799998	7.4784075	0.09840766
1992q2	7.5952565	7.9284118	0.33315521
1992q3	7.627626	7.3342864	-0.29333961
1992q4	7.4073085	7.3692833	-0.03802521
1993q1	7.1510671	7.0125492	-0.13851787
1993q2	7.0702378	6.9551173	-0.11512048
1993q3	6.800953	6.6822017	-0.11875131
1993q4	6.6206964	6.5484993	-0.07219707
1994q1	6.5573565	6.3714632	-0.18589335
1994q2	6.1672269	5.9424076	-0.22481937
1994q3	6.0032496	5.8123872	-0.19086239
1994q4	5.6213662	5.4763662	-0.14499997
1995q1	5.4799934	5.671142	0.19114864
1995q2	5.6765778	5.6129016	-0.06367626
1995q3	5.660615	5.5507997	-0.10981527
1995q4	5.5743581	5.6669892	0.09263109
1996q1	5.54798	5.5138013	-0.03417877
1996q2	5.4727414	5.4426026	-0.0301388
1996q3	5.2619381	5.1094422	-0.1524959
1996q4	5.3130063	5.38069	0.06768369
1997q1	5.2269198	5.0687742	-0.15814564
1997q2	4.9779023	4.865833	-0.11206933
1997q3	4.8610236	4.7624541	-0.09856955
1997q4	4.6836529	4.6466526	-0.03700026
1998q1	4.6412148	4.4582121	-0.18300278
1998q2	4.4176446	4.5755108	0.15786621
1998q3	4.5321428	4.5451363	0.01299342
1998q4	4.4335731	4.2888022	-0.14477092
1999q1	4.2883878	4.3072088	0.01882095
1999q2	4.2528204	4.2690546	0.0162342
1999q3	4.2481338	4.1385423	-0.10959154
1999q4	4.0829401	4.0536188	-0.02932132
2000q1	4.0497811	3.9631421	-0.08663903
2000q2	3.9488387	4.0756759	0.12683721
2000q3	4.0310271	3.9454396	-0.08558747
2000q4	3.9192195	4.1491567	0.22993726
2001q1	4.2308443	4.3363152	0.10547095
2001q2	4.411688	4.5614346	0.14974658
2001q3	4.8191411	5.3832654	0.56412432
2001q4	5.5369403	5.7980138	0.26107351
2002q1	5.7043804	5.9423463	0.23796588
2002q2	5.8441518	5.7301443	-0.1140075
2002q3	5.7297818	5.6864529	-0.04332895
2002q4	5.8488859	5.9742131	0.12532722
2003q1	5.8727136	6.07258	0.19986644
2003q2	6.1504925	6.2615189	0.11102639
2003q3	6.1047639	5.9428559	-0.16190799
2003q4	5.8179865	5.6072073	-0.21077923
2004q1	5.6817327	5.600466	-0.08126677
2004q2	5.5888715	5.5773835	-0.01148802
2004q3	5.4335902	5.3960747	-0.03751551
2004q4	5.3888294	5.2383701	-0.15045928
2005q1	5.2836614	5.2250876	-0.05857378
2005q2	5.1063726	4.968274	-0.13809864
2005q3	4.9656234	4.9931342	0.02751087
2005q4	4.9540376	4.7618406	-0.19219694
2006q1	4.7202764	4.7535301	0.03325367
2006q2	4.6549786	4.6830113	0.02803275
2006q3	4.6427768	4.4325486	-0.21022827
2006q4	4.4536121	4.6698541	0.216242
2007q1	4.5241373	4.3963179	-0.12781944
2007q2	4.4952284	4.6560167	0.16078824
2007q3	4.6570243	4.7059881	0.04896383
2007q4	4.7992287	5.0413792	0.24215049
2008q1	4.9788492	4.9612422	-0.01760695
2008q2	5.3204915	6.0482149	0.72772344
2008q3	6.0171626	6.6901366	0.67297401
2008q4	6.8789614	8.1992301	1.3202686
2009q1	8.2735639	9.6005441	1.3269802
2009q2	9.2734753	10.02434	0.75086485
2009q3	9.6229824	10.31813	0.69514771
2009q4	9.9341943	9.5240625	-0.41013176
2010q1	9.7848053	10.046249	0.26144402
2010q2	9.6480398	9.136383	-0.51165678
2010q3	9.5114129	9.5529705	0.04155761
2010q4	9.5655941	9.0831508	-0.4824432
2011q1	8.9789691	8.8533613	-0.12560784
2011q2	9.0565546	9.1536061	0.09705157
2011q3	9.0503012	8.9219747	-0.12832648
2011q4	8.6989325	7.873213	-0.82571954
2012q1	8.2412174	8.0319367	-0.20928065
2012q2	8.1734131	8.4320938	0.25868073
2012q3	8.0535069

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Unemployment Inflow and Outflow Hazard Rates and Convergence to Steady-State Unemployment Rate 1951-2012

	Inflow	Outflow	Time to convergence
1951q1	1.076787	4.4994266	2.5021408
1951q2	1.0619598	4.4919063	2.5282191
1951q3	1.1518687	4.4954758	2.4925583
1951q4	1.0459028	4.4575897	2.6069612
1952q1	1.109794	4.6066864	2.2395071
1952q2	1.1152727	4.5437858	2.3823877
1952q3	1.0707614	4.51443	2.4452108
1952q4	0.95910754	4.5063552	2.508572
1953q1	1.0365123	4.6607881	2.134565
1953q2	0.91352692	4.5547576	2.3662432
1953q3	1.0819859	4.5629177	2.3370243
1953q4	1.2958316	4.2887338	3.019508
1954q1	1.3340093	4.0883896	3.6375236
1954q2	1.2693672	4.0767592	3.697173
1954q3	1.2305076	3.9839641	4.0656039
1954q4	1.1544884	4.1365634	3.5053168
1955q1	0.99653034	4.0284564	3.9416836
1955q2	1.0716521	4.2543291	3.1444991
1955q3	1.1352549	4.2337224	3.2042733
1955q4	1.090132	4.252391	3.1473838
1956q1	1.118905	4.2890735	3.0338167
1956q2	1.1691847	4.224206	3.2260827
1956q3	1.1042961	4.336312	2.9016816
1956q4	1.131144	4.2248883	3.2410642
1957q1	1.0361693	4.274382	3.0877436
1957q2	1.0942807	4.2050518	3.2997149
1957q3	1.1069552	4.1773311	3.3969107
1957q4	1.186328	3.9503286	4.214557
1958q1	1.3247558	3.8067684	4.8231602
1958q2	1.272827	3.7919075	4.8142784
1958q3	1.2006172	3.8385171	4.6364398
1958q4	1.173328	3.9625266	4.126328
1959q1	1.115677	4.0097249	3.9734801
1959q2	1.1376514	4.0673387	3.7443081
1959q3	1.1971899	3.9993664	3.9920579
1959q4	1.243405	4.1265563	3.5489417
1960q1	1.190543	4.0974863	3.7062854
1960q2	1.2447692	4.0983831	3.6343436
1960q3	1.2163657	3.9660262	4.1497597
1960q4	1.3074766	3.9353143	4.2058668
1961q1	1.2782358	3.8581214	4.5439838
1961q2	1.2218324	3.804247	4.7979543
1961q3	1.2472813	3.9365302	4.2095259
1961q4	1.2053718	4.0191959	3.9043237
1962q1	1.1534687	4.0093088	3.9525401
1962q2	1.1187852	3.9822317	4.0628718
1962q3	1.207925	4.0452308	3.8252522
1962q4	1.237804	4.0252779	3.8940907
1963q1	1.2284995	4.0212618	3.8934601
1963q2	1.2258126	4.033752	3.8654498
1963q3	1.1901882	4.0454589	3.819646
1963q4	1.2569352	4.0768412	3.6960789
1964q1	1.2221761	4.0931205	3.6367213
1964q2	1.1379398	4.0965754	3.6447434
1964q3	1.1968072	4.1172475	3.5607146
1964q4	1.1434476	4.1264933	3.5425741
1965q1	1.2102232	4.1755143	3.3881427
1965q2	1.1823405	4.2572789	3.1181522
1965q3	1.13209	4.2521097	3.1396742
1965q4	1.0630197	4.2460709	3.1723694
1966q1	1.1207325	4.3703879	2.8124935
1966q2	1.2005971	4.416705	2.6819593
1966q3	1.148016	4.4060947	2.7072333
1966q4	1.1092884	4.3325405	2.9107412
1967q1	1.1322834	4.3730292	2.7969723
1967q2	1.1737713	4.3894879	2.7504492
1967q3	1.1663229	4.3580562	2.8369441
1967q4	1.1122851	4.3631695	2.8271134
1968q1	1.1454641	4.4277323	2.6562167
1968q2	1.174132	4.4398111	2.6173217
1968q3	1.1274157	4.4774497	2.5357155
1968q4	1.1083206	4.4473356	2.6047817
1969q1	1.0873154	4.4286601	2.6614305
1969q2	1.1776494	4.4913051	2.4949584
1969q3	1.1759436	4.4260088	2.6665608
1969q4	1.1148246	4.3740373	2.8088318
1970q1	1.3000009	4.3286399	2.8982391
1970q2	1.3220402	4.2568639	3.1008345
1970q3	1.383457	4.2261186	3.1825504
1970q4	1.3769593	4.1022532	3.577819
1971q1	1.2933655	4.0623355	3.7357065
1971q2	1.3028946	4.0571433	3.7463201
1971q3	1.345429	4.1098881	3.5567322
1971q4	1.3451511	4.0933658	3.6249626
1972q1	1.284889	4.0826475	3.6619209
1972q2	1.2960961	4.1119869	3.5586274
1972q3	1.3464008	4.1750117	3.3483158
1972q4	1.2287922	4.1911713	3.3299362
1973q1	1.295786	4.2246338	3.1981625
1973q2	1.3390892	4.3242152	2.9029978
1973q3	1.2851933	4.2931608	3.0009592
1973q4	1.3263409	4.2395357	3.1494233
1974q1	1.3552766	4.2804031	3.0268777
1974q2	1.3772116	4.2216642	3.1976034
1974q3	1.4446812	4.2097054	3.2336296
1974q4	1.5516887	3.9739606	4.0133472
1975q1	1.4824527	3.8117399	4.6633087
1975q2	1.4480556	3.7894922	4.7523866
1975q3	1.4298167	3.8340305	4.5678164
1975q4	1.3731331	3.8220356	4.6439508
1976q1	1.3921356	3.8936961	4.3418056
1976q2	1.4029548	3.8891432	4.3775517
1976q3	1.4244167	3.912049	4.2553267
1976q4	1.4044944	3.8986973	4.3409686
1977q1	1.462105	3.9977046	3.9342118
1977q2	1.4216132	4.0154432	3.8702319
1977q3	1.4036676	4.0157312	3.8732568
1977q4	1.3782874	4.0550047	3.7443187
1978q1	1.3706645	4.1033495	3.5712318
1978q2	1.410198	4.1476146	3.4177489
1978q3	1.3992846	4.1898219	3.2871024
1978q4	1.3857359	4.1396594	3.4480632
1979q1	1.3843258	4.1634461	3.3747035
1979q2	1.3848016	4.1977968	3.2655187
1979q3	1.4538595	4.1964764	3.2577937
1979q4	1.4322631	4.1527738	3.4026903
1980q1	1.4454984	4.0743261	3.6711928
1980q2	1.5299545	3.9685092	4.0094745
1980q3	1.4455769	3.9607376	4.0619836
1980q4	1.4098563	3.9398528	4.1582083
1981q1	1.4371776	3.9817331	3.9834617
1981q2	1.459018	3.9877092	3.9647947
1981q3	1.4923122	3.9383949	4.1293691
1981q4	1.6094579	3.9519813	4.0386798
1982q1	1.5858758	3.8427351	4.470136
1982q2	1.5471085	3.7554253	4.8694855
1982q3	1.5674903	3.7119325	5.0497988
1982q4	1.548477	3.6730346	5.2366494
1983q1	1.4715925	3.6511404	5.3713643
1983q2	1.4681201	3.7226301	5.0624391
1983q3	1.4926943	3.8250865	4.6016502
1983q4	1.4193906	3.8766065	4.39557
1984q1	1.4045517	3.8900664	4.3464441
1984q2	1.3765723	3.9163689	4.2595633
1984q3	1.4362426	3.9718046	4.0209964
1984q4	1.4461501	3.9871119	3.9720585
1985q1	1.4470837	3.9954575	3.9300247
1985q2	1.453696	3.9867327	3.9619237
1985q3	1.4321676	4.008964	3.8906004
1985q4	1.4168478	4.0460275	3.7634738
1986q1	1.4370588	3.9657167	4.0678671
1986q2	1.4247295	3.9897677	3.9593374
1986q3	1.3925829	3.9895925	3.9750877
1986q4	1.3725588	4.0216072	3.8573579
1987q1	1.3542187	4.0378724	3.8026149
1987q2	1.3366138	4.0695861	3.6951438
1987q3	1.3306055	4.0857656	3.6440429
1987q4	1.3094223	4.1150384	3.5484465
1988q1	1.2822108	4.1240107	3.5346011
1988q2	1.2771954	4.1250386	3.5319579
1988q3	1.3060509	4.1575614	3.4181748
1988q4	1.2700695	4.1324787	3.4967296
1989q1	1.3044243	4.2290813	3.2028751
1989q2	1.3140999	4.2073671	3.2480341
1989q3	1.3024507	4.1775392	3.3432471
1989q4	1.3197627	4.1775239	3.3439504
1990q1	1.3099171	4.1882624	3.3115201
1990q2	1.2745617	4.1371662	3.4906533
1990q3	1.3025232	4.0544255	3.7552094
1990q4	1.3366751	4.0120095	3.8988089
1991q1	1.3414626	3.9539183	4.1199113
1991q2	1.3307817	3.9304777	4.2091536
1991q3	1.3180512	3.9020844	4.3256211
1991q4	1.2943618	3.8223295	4.6701137
1992q1	1.2449324	3.7609954	4.9626752
1992q2	1.2730137	3.7275832	5.1130578
1992q3	1.270032	3.8086561	4.7422404
1992q4	1.2169088	3.750484	5.0298944
1993q1	1.2588681	3.8437848	4.5894994
1993q2	1.2291726	3.8236769	4.6872858
1993q3	1.2030724	3.8394616	4.6234885
1993q4	1.187569	3.846872	4.6012607
1994q1	1.1936295	3.8822254	4.458281
1994q2	1.2000853	3.9625063	4.1201092
1994q3	1.1256544	3.9111086	4.3534446
1994q4	1.1651904	4.0138031	3.9321712
1995q1	1.1376727	3.9558861	4.1831292
1995q2	1.1572375	3.980538	4.066713
1995q3	1.2131208	4.0474096	3.8009567
1995q4	1.1846778	3.996793	3.9931702
1996q1	1.1317891	3.9747693	4.1082746
1996q2	1.1532478	4.0107304	3.9560675
1996q3	1.0811722	4.0065608	3.9958875
1996q4	1.1924365	4.0595604	3.7697873
1997q1	1.0858647	4.0158826	3.9431692
1997q2	1.0746155	4.0488775	3.828107
1997q3	1.090244	4.0878239	3.6930803
1997q4	1.1002665	4.1233304	3.5639745
1998q1	1.1868165	4.2568677	3.1395947
1998q2	1.1319611	4.1702742	3.4008158
1998q3	1.1787165	4.2239674	3.2290322
1998q4	1.1064592	4.2116702	3.2683415
1999q1	1.1481006	4.251042	3.1517697
1999q2	1.1217101	4.2334681	3.2044417
1999q3	1.1346442	4.2777396	3.0636353
1999q4	1.1479737	4.3126127	2.9650432
2000q1	1.1638381	4.3543676	2.8602194
2000q2	1.0978898	4.2582857	3.1355111
2000q3	1.1109909	4.3058729	2.9945216
2000q4	1.0845697	4.227023	3.2276225
2001q1	1.215931	4.3094564	2.9679179
2001q2	1.1381214	4.1809223	3.3703246
2001q3	1.1996133	4.068166	3.7318744
2001q4	1.2144873	4.0033166	3.9648906
2002q1	1.1817988	3.9464051	4.2067272
2002q2	1.1076491	3.9084908	4.3654181
2002q3	1.1090356	3.9178957	4.3264133
2002q4	1.1225784	3.8794358	4.4785579
2003q1	1.0778992	3.8184864	4.7621158
2003q2	1.0955075	3.803704	4.8244075
2003q3	1.0501221	3.8126674	4.7909995
2003q4	1.009113	3.8328045	4.7057879
2004q1	1.002395	3.8340874	4.7630967
2004q2	1.0579292	3.8886158	4.467485
2004q3	1.0505419	3.9153741	4.3470104
2004q4	1.0372687	3.9326005	4.2758182
2005q1	1.0152911	3.9142652	4.3606205
2005q2	1.0310707	3.9819992	4.0812002
2005q3	1.0347136	3.9811672	4.087057
2005q4	1.0283686	4.0247426	3.9190015
2006q1	1.0161843	4.0150031	3.9668432
2006q2	1.0270805	4.0407797	3.8617547
2006q3	1.0177878	4.0898338	3.6900534
2006q4	0.96467446	3.9859331	4.1081013
2007q1	0.91959194	3.9995435	4.0457091
2007q2	0.93566189	3.9571742	4.2071643
2007q3	0.96530944	3.9746002	4.1314451
2007q4	0.97442127	3.9132396	4.3856
2008q1	0.98507025	3.9394884	4.2676666
2008q2	1.0743082	3.8169802	4.7879576
2008q3	1.1079354	3.7451117	5.0967908
2008q4	1.1714186	3.5931227	5.8555998
2009q1	1.1659594	3.4084576	6.8897353
2009q2	1.0955409	3.2939487	7.7164442
2009q3	1.0380481	3.1996454	8.4261615
2009q4	0.99805503	3.249427	8.0868302
2010q1	0.92759988	3.1197948	9.1511727
2010q2	0.964992	3.2638734	8.0128791
2010q3	0.9388738	3.1887204	8.6155246
2010q4	0.95168362	3.2733829	8.056664
2011q1	0.85474152	3.1855961	8.6816223
2011q2	0.97235596	3.2668428	8.0011564
2011q3	0.93613257	3.2595583	8.0552425
2011q4	0.87770235	3.3371743	7.5395994
2012q1	0.8633821	3.3027267	7.801414
2012q2	0.91925965	3.3057676	7.7634105

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Giacomini-Rossi Fluctuation Test Statistic for Comparison of the SSUR-2 and ARIMA Model Forecasts 1970-2012

	Same quarter	One quarter ahead	Critical value
1969m11			3.17
1969m12			3.17
1970m1			3.17
1970m2			3.17
1970m3			3.17
1970m4			3.17
1970m5			3.17
1970m6			3.17
1970m7			3.17
1970m8			3.17
1970m9	1.5182	0.1332	3.17
1970m10	1.247	0.1389	3.17
1970m11	1.1913	0.0856	3.17
1970m12	0.5985	-0.1849	3.17
1971m1	0.3616	-0.3064	3.17
1971m2	0.2407	-0.3351	3.17
1971m3	0.2785	-0.4397	3.17
1971m4	0.25	-0.5674	3.17
1971m5	0.264	-0.6235	3.17
1971m6	-0.1727	-0.9056	3.17
1971m7	-0.2021	-0.9083	3.17
1971m8	-0.244	-0.8488	3.17
1971m9	-0.0186	-0.7989	3.17
1971m10	0.0205	-0.8051	3.17
1971m11	0.0337	-0.7909	3.17
1971m12	0.0853	-0.7289	3.17
1972m1	0.082	-0.6671	3.17
1972m2	0.092	-0.5707	3.17
1972m3	-0.0216	-0.5909	3.17
1972m4	-0.0842	-0.6492	3.17
1972m5	-0.0853	-0.6026	3.17
1972m6	-0.1146	-0.558	3.17
1972m7	-0.1697	-0.5459	3.17
1972m8	-0.1773	-0.5394	3.17
1972m9	-0.1438	-0.5304	3.17
1972m10	-0.149	-0.524	3.17
1972m11	-0.2215	-0.4539	3.17
1972m12	-0.1898	-0.2938	3.17
1973m1	-0.1744	-0.1701	3.17
1973m2	0.0384	-0.065	3.17
1973m3	0.1075	-0.0436	3.17
1973m4	0.0827	-0.0717	3.17
1973m5	0.0309	-0.1084	3.17
1973m6	-0.0089	-0.0602	3.17
1973m7	-0.0149	-0.0378	3.17
1973m8	-0.065	-0.032	3.17
1973m9	-0.003	0.1521	3.17
1973m10	0.0516	0.2913	3.17
1973m11	0.2064	0.5578	3.17
1973m12	0.8254	1.2746	3.17
1974m1	1.3336	2.1652	3.17
1974m2	1.6145	2.6999	3.17
1974m3	3.2173	3.0303	3.17
1974m4	3.0634	2.7855	3.17
1974m5	3.1715	2.7201	3.17
1974m6	3.3399	2.848	3.17
1974m7	3.3175	2.8125	3.17
1974m8	3.3699	2.9842	3.17
1974m9	3.1042	2.9578	3.17
1974m10	3.0761	2.8957	3.17
1974m11	2.9828	2.9418	3.17
1974m12	3.0802	2.9422	3.17
1975m1	3.0675	2.9948	3.17
1975m2	3.0832	2.9592	3.17
1975m3	3.4079	2.9824	3.17
1975m4	3.4034	3.0243	3.17
1975m5	3.289	2.8077	3.17
1975m6	3.3874	2.9132	3.17
1975m7	3.3995	2.9455	3.17
1975m8	2.9159	2.5402	3.17
1975m9	2.6063	1.7836	3.17
1975m10	2.3539	1.2514	3.17
1975m11	0.7511	0.9116	3.17
1975m12	1.0378	1.106	3.17
1976m1	0.94	1.1873	3.17
1976m2	0.7682	1.1393	3.17
1976m3	0.9394	1.2667	3.17
1976m4	0.9078	1.1053	3.17
1976m5	1.1762	0.8749	3.17
1976m6	1.1708	0.9565	3.17
1976m7	1.2019	0.9998	3.17
1976m8	1.1229	1.0669	3.17
1976m9	1.127	1.0341	3.17
1976m10	1.1328	1.0266	3.17
1976m11	0.7969	0.966	3.17
1976m12	0.6255	0.7338	3.17
1977m1	0.6114	0.7708	3.17
1977m2	0.4301	0.5105	3.17
1977m3	0.2291	0.2626	3.17
1977m4	0.1421	-0.0151	3.17
1977m5	-0.0555	-0.1891	3.17
1977m6	-0.1295	-0.188	3.17
1977m7	-0.1349	-0.177	3.17
1977m8	-0.2925	-0.1486	3.17
1977m9	0.1809	-0.0608	3.17
1977m10	0.0978	-0.2361	3.17
1977m11	-0.0173	-0.3475	3.17
1977m12	-0.0304	-0.3846	3.17
1978m1	-0.0268	-0.1716	3.17
1978m2	0.0095	-0.1882	3.17
1978m3	-0.2219	-0.3731	3.17
1978m4	-0.2731	-0.4483	3.17
1978m5	-0.2634	-0.4578	3.17
1978m6	-0.3167	-0.4696	3.17
1978m7	-0.3452	-0.5126	3.17
1978m8	-0.1814	-0.3459	3.17
1978m9	-0.0518	-0.3368	3.17
1978m10	0.0397	-0.3134	3.17
1978m11	0.1775	-0.3086	3.17
1978m12	0.2263	-0.2298	3.17
1979m1	0.1893	-0.1783	3.17
1979m2	0.2289	-0.1693	3.17
1979m3	0.4052	0.3986	3.17
1979m4	0.3824	0.6319	3.17
1979m5	-0.0881	0.8726	3.17
1979m6	1.0581	1.3335	3.17
1979m7	1.7749	1.0205	3.17
1979m8	1.8654	0.4203	3.17
1979m9	1.3826	0.0646	3.17
1979m10	1.4068	0.0302	3.17
1979m11	1.6477	0.0944	3.17
1979m12	1.7002	0.1328	3.17
1980m1	1.706	0.1686	3.17
1980m2	1.7419	0.1758	3.17
1980m3	1.727	0.2405	3.17
1980m4	1.7019	0.2447	3.17
1980m5	1.5691	0.2226	3.17
1980m6	1.5642	0.2321	3.17
1980m7	1.6456	0.2663	3.17
1980m8	1.5922	0.1901	3.17
1980m9	1.4944	0.4905	3.17
1980m10	1.5074	0.8368	3.17
1980m11	1.364	0.5858	3.17
1980m12	2.3572	0.7135	3.17
1981m1	2.757	0.4484	3.17
1981m2	1.9455	0.0887	3.17
1981m3	1.1112	0.385	3.17
1981m4	1.0052	1.1149	3.17
1981m5	1.4886	1.5596	3.17
1981m6	1.6836	1.7401	3.17
1981m7	1.5981	1.7591	3.17
1981m8	1.5715	1.7564	3.17
1981m9	1.822	2.18	3.17
1981m10	1.8643	2.2702	3.17
1981m11	1.9791	2.4539	3.17
1981m12	2.3203	2.2489	3.17
1982m1	2.396	2.2164	3.17
1982m2	2.35	2.3939	3.17
1982m3	3.0778	2.6862	3.17
1982m4	3.102	2.6931	3.17
1982m5	3.2842	2.3773	3.17
1982m6	3.2661	2.0755	3.17
1982m7	3.24	1.7992	3.17
1982m8	2.281	1.4489	3.17
1982m9	1.9811	1.4872	3.17
1982m10	1.6788	1.4903	3.17
1982m11	1.7723	1.573	3.17
1982m12	1.8559	1.4348	3.17
1983m1	1.9398	1.3417	3.17
1983m2	1.7421	1.2523	3.17
1983m3	1.8457	1.3142	3.17
1983m4	1.8768	1.3292	3.17
1983m5	1.6324	0.9026	3.17
1983m6	1.5499	0.8631	3.17
1983m7	1.4474	0.6562	3.17
1983m8	1.1255	0.9019	3.17
1983m9	1.8768	1.1604	3.17
1983m10	1.9277	0.9683	3.17
1983m11	1.1894	0.6272	3.17
1983m12	1.0443	0.6475	3.17
1984m1	0.9793	0.6684	3.17
1984m2	0.999	0.6695	3.17
1984m3	1.0685	0.6403	3.17
1984m4	1.0829	0.6468	3.17
1984m5	0.9733	0.531	3.17
1984m6	1.0078	0.5291	3.17
1984m7	0.9972	0.454	3.17
1984m8	0.9411	0.4693	3.17
1984m9	0.8187	0.4438	3.17
1984m10	0.7835	0.3901	3.17
1984m11	0.7317	0.3181	3.17
1984m12	0.6833	0.2921	3.17
1985m1	0.6084	0.2651	3.17
1985m2	0.6524	0.2213	3.17
1985m3	0.8027	0.2913	3.17
1985m4	0.9795	0.3739	3.17
1985m5	0.1809	0.154	3.17
1985m6	0.1133	0.1803	3.17
1985m7	0.0464	0.1909	3.17
1985m8	0.188	0.1687	3.17
1985m9	0.1526	0.1708	3.17
1985m10	0.1488	0.1107	3.17
1985m11	0.0771	0.0977	3.17
1985m12	0.1097	0.1196	3.17
1986m1	0.1192	0.1301	3.17
1986m2	0.1645	0.1609	3.17
1986m3	0.035	0.0264	3.17
1986m4	-0.0609	-0.1084	3.17
1986m5	-0.0237	-0.0589	3.17
1986m6	0.1973	0.0234	3.17
1986m7	0.1595	-0.0221	3.17
1986m8	0.2181	-0.0241	3.17
1986m9	0.261	-0.012	3.17
1986m10	0.2556	-0.0205	3.17
1986m11	0.1375	-0.0833	3.17
1986m12	-0.0302	-0.2059	3.17
1987m1	-0.0555	-0.2093	3.17
1987m2	-0.0555	-0.2227	3.17
1987m3	-0.2722	-0.3334	3.17
1987m4	-0.3655	-0.3565	3.17
1987m5	-0.3081	-0.3414	3.17
1987m6	-0.2377	-0.3236	3.17
1987m7	-0.236	-0.3342	3.17
1987m8	-0.2653	-0.3411	3.17
1987m9	-0.2189	-0.351	3.17
1987m10	-0.2291	-0.3683	3.17
1987m11	-0.0995	-0.1305	3.17
1987m12	-0.1034	-0.0229	3.17
1988m1	-0.1028	-0.0317	3.17
1988m2	-0.3046	-0.0834	3.17
1988m3	-0.1574	0.0254	3.17
1988m4	-0.0484	0.1125	3.17
1988m5	0.0112	0.1159	3.17
1988m6	0.1045	0.0396	3.17
1988m7	0.1049	0.0802	3.17
1988m8	0.1155	0.0788	3.17
1988m9	0.0889	0.0577	3.17
1988m10	0.0874	0.0457	3.17
1988m11	0.3057	0.1824	3.17
1988m12	0.4163	0.2891	3.17
1989m1	0.3988	0.2972	3.17
1989m2	0.3362	0.3144	3.17
1989m3	0.3772	0.3392	3.17
1989m4	0.3893	0.3273	3.17
1989m5	0.34	0.3214	3.17
1989m6	0.3131	0.3107	3.17
1989m7	0.3072	0.2415	3.17
1989m8	0.3957	0.2684	3.17
1989m9	0.5028	0.2334	3.17
1989m10	0.4912	0.1645	3.17
1989m11	0.3998	0.1028	3.17
1989m12	0.2746	-0.026	3.17
1990m1	0.2712	0.0259	3.17
1990m2	0.1865	0.1249	3.17
1990m3	0.1401	0.0525	3.17
1990m4	0.1099	0.0408	3.17
1990m5	0.1831	0.0326	3.17
1990m6	0.2226	0.0595	3.17
1990m7	0.2027	0.0619	3.17
1990m8	0.2019	0.0442	3.17
1990m9	0.5171	0.0946	3.17
1990m10	0.5566	0.0667	3.17
1990m11	0.5492	0.0404	3.17
1990m12	0.4778	-0.0437	3.17
1991m1	0.472	-0.0397	3.17
1991m2	0.4886	-0.052	3.17
1991m3	0.4052	-0.1299	3.17
1991m4	0.4026	-0.1472	3.17
1991m5	0.2938	-0.1368	3.17
1991m6	-0.0918	-0.2991	3.17
1991m7	-0.1192	-0.2926	3.17
1991m8	-0.1235	-0.2579	3.17
1991m9	0.1095	-0.1151	3.17
1991m10	0.0879	-0.1906	3.17
1991m11	0.1749	-0.1246	3.17
1991m12	0.2172	-0.0792	3.17
1992m1	0.1913	-0.0505	3.17
1992m2	0.157	-0.0863	3.17
1992m3	0.264	-0.0956	3.17
1992m4	0.2684	-0.1645	3.17
1992m5	-0.0281	-0.2655	3.17
1992m6	-0.0609	-0.2701	3.17
1992m7	-0.0956	-0.2622	3.17
1992m8	-0.0404	-0.1851	3.17
1992m9	-0.0009	-0.151	3.17
1992m10	0.0089	-0.1312	3.17
1992m11	0.1084	-0.0556	3.17
1992m12	0.1136	-0.0672	3.17
1993m1	0.1241	-0.0399	3.17
1993m2	0.5205	0.1817	3.17
1993m3	0.4661	0.1814	3.17
1993m4	0.4525	0.2228	3.17
1993m5	0.1991	0.0474	3.17
1993m6	0.4411	0.1744	3.17
1993m7	0.4579	0.1529	3.17
1993m8	0.478	0.1246	3.17
1993m9	0.4942	0.0779	3.17
1993m10	0.4899	0.129	3.17
1993m11	0.3871	0.1312	3.17
1993m12	0.1788	0.1396	3.17
1994m1	0.1729	0.1627	3.17
1994m2	0.177	0.1674	3.17
1994m3	0.2209	0.182	3.17
1994m4	0.1975	0.1837	3.17
1994m5	0.1554	0.1801	3.17
1994m6	0.244	0.1793	3.17
1994m7	0.2291	0.2007	3.17
1994m8	0.2347	0.2198	3.17
1994m9	0.2045	0.1882	3.17
1994m10	0.2068	0.1981	3.17
1994m11	0.2699	0.2097	3.17
1994m12	0.266	0.1823	3.17
1995m1	0.2569	0.1729	3.17
1995m2	0.0313	0.0943	3.17
1995m3	-0.0518	0.0988	3.17
1995m4	-0.0872	0.1201	3.17
1995m5	-0.1293	0.0909	3.17
1995m6	-0.2597	0.02	3.17
1995m7	-0.2371	0.0264	3.17
1995m8	-0.0356	0.0463	3.17
1995m9	-0.0427	0.0447	3.17
1995m10	-0.0451	0.0598	3.17
1995m11	-0.0924	0.0515	3.17
1995m12	-0.0918	0.0395	3.17
1996m1	-0.1038	0.0102	3.17
1996m2	-0.2004	0.0093	3.17
1996m3	-0.1855	0.0235	3.17
1996m4	-0.1839	0.0601	3.17
1996m5	-0.158	0.1168	3.17
1996m6	-0.0667	0.145	3.17
1996m7	-0.0706	0.1344	3.17
1996m8	-0.0488	0.1445	3.17
1996m9	-0.008	0.1738	3.17
1996m10	-0.0218	0.1836	3.17
1996m11	0.0047	0.1631	3.17
1996m12	0.1205	0.1602	3.17
1997m1	0.1464	0.2146	3.17
1997m2	0.2865	0.2567	3.17
1997m3	0.282	0.2353	3.17
1997m4	0.2751	0.2152	3.17
1997m5	0.2779	0.2171	3.17
1997m6	0.3744	0.1993	3.17
1997m7	0.3681	0.2406	3.17
1997m8	0.3934	0.2817	3.17
1997m9	0.4009	0.2679	3.17
1997m10	0.3973	0.2553	3.17
1997m11	0.386	0.2207	3.17
1997m12	0.3931	0.2129	3.17
1998m1	0.4016	0.1819	3.17
1998m2	0.3154	0.1331	3.17
1998m3	0.3154	0.1428	3.17
1998m4	0.3126	0.1383	3.17
1998m5	0.283	0.1223	3.17
1998m6	0.3012	0.1189	3.17
1998m7	0.3005	0.1393	3.17
1998m8	0.1788	0.1133	3.17
1998m9	0.2001	0.1585	3.17
1998m10	0.2103	0.1732	3.17
1998m11	0.2129	0.2054	3.17
1998m12	0.2442	0.2488	3.17
1999m1	0.2651	0.2583	3.17
1999m2	0.1652	0.2603	3.17
1999m3	0.1706	0.2179	3.17
1999m4	0.1604	0.1952	3.17
1999m5	0.1634	0.2244	3.17
1999m6	0.1913	0.2392	3.17
1999m7	0.1896	0.2317	3.17
1999m8	0.1876	0.227	3.17
1999m9	0.1749	0.2202	3.17
1999m10	0.1634	0.2299	3.17
1999m11	0.168	0.2435	3.17
1999m12	0.1645	0.2415	3.17
2000m1	0.1526	0.2162	3.17
2000m2	0.1481	0.213	3.17
2000m3	0.1548	0.1922	3.17
2000m4	0.1483	0.1772	3.17
2000m5	0.1108	0.1422	3.17
2000m6	0.0997	0.1314	3.17
2000m7	0.0836	0.1194	3.17
2000m8	0.052	0.1156	3.17
2000m9	0.063	0.1717	3.17
2000m10	0.0766	0.2224	3.17
2000m11	0.0853	0.1665	3.17
2000m12	0.3374	0.1827	3.17
2001m1	0.4538	0.1174	3.17
2001m2	0.497	0.0939	3.17
2001m3	0.7414	0.1576	3.17
2001m4	0.8042	0.1432	3.17
2001m5	0.8349	0.1365	3.17
2001m6	0.8109	0.1426	3.17
2001m7	0.772	0.1622	3.17
2001m8	0.7742	0.1641	3.17
2001m9	0.9193	0.2022	3.17
2001m10	0.9929	0.2134	3.17
2001m11	1.011	0.2172	3.17
2001m12	1.0829	0.2312	3.17
2002m1	1.0914	0.2263	3.17
2002m2	1.092	0.2378	3.17
2002m3	1.1728	0.2397	3.17
2002m4	1.1801	0.2202	3.17
2002m5	1.1738	0.1511	3.17
2002m6	1.9962	0.4674	3.17
2002m7	2.0705	0.5051	3.17
2002m8	2.0951	0.5467	3.17
2002m9	1.8135	0.4996	3.17
2002m10	1.7585	0.5104	3.17
2002m11	1.5381	0.4672	3.17
2002m12	1.3567	0.4801	3.17
2003m1	1.3122	0.5214	3.17
2003m2	1.3383	0.5415	3.17
2003m3	1.3688	0.4904	3.17
2003m4	1.3675	0.4818	3.17
2003m5	1.2146	0.4324	3.17
2003m6	1.149	0.4228	3.17
2003m7	1.1209	0.4199	3.17
2003m8	1.0568	0.4216	3.17
2003m9	1.0665	0.4235	3.17
2003m10	1.0622	0.397	3.17
2003m11	0.9933	0.3917	3.17
2003m12	0.9551	0.3892	3.17
2004m1	0.9318	0.3981	3.17
2004m2	0.0848	0.0311	3.17
2004m3	0.0546	0.0631	3.17
2004m4	-0.2455	-0.0023	3.17
2004m5	0.0637	0.2656	3.17
2004m6	0.0497	0.2667	3.17
2004m7	0.0294	0.2499	3.17
2004m8	0.1427	0.2403	3.17
2004m9	0.1539	0.1972	3.17
2004m10	0.1511	0.1554	3.17
2004m11	0.1567	0.1626	3.17
2004m12	0.1416	0.1396	3.17
2005m1	0.1496	0.1442	3.17
2005m2	0.1464	0.1651	3.17
2005m3	0.1859	0.1762	3.17
2005m4	0.1852	0.1721	3.17
2005m5	0.1723	0.168	3.17
2005m6	0.1559	0.1567	3.17
2005m7	0.1513	0.1574	3.17
2005m8	0.1781	0.1584	3.17
2005m9	0.1697	0.1535	3.17
2005m10	0.1686	0.165	3.17
2005m11	0.1185	0.1471	3.17
2005m12	0.1449	0.1494	3.17
2006m1	-0.0009	-0.0179	3.17
2006m2	0	-0.0171	3.17
2006m3	-0.0177	-0.0188	3.17
2006m4	-0.0134	-0.0149	3.17
2006m5	-0.011	-0.0113	3.17
2006m6	-0.0151	-0.0286	3.17
2006m7	-0.0207	-0.0479	3.17
2006m8	-0.0045	-0.0348	3.17
2006m9	-0.0289	-0.0435	3.17
2006m10	-0.032	-0.0776	3.17
2006m11	-0.0656	-0.0945	3.17
2006m12	-0.0889	-0.1196	3.17
2007m1	-0.1071	-0.1353	3.17
2007m2	-0.1004	-0.1254	3.17
2007m3	-0.0797	-0.1421	3.17
2007m4	-0.0756	-0.1691	3.17
2007m5	-0.0788	-0.1739	3.17
2007m6	-0.0851	-0.2028	3.17
2007m7	-0.0833	-0.1785	3.17
2007m8	-0.0581	-0.2202	3.17
2007m9	5.8133	5.1062	3.17
2007m10	9.0275	9.2591	3.17
2007m11	9.0919	9.2616	3.17
2007m12	9.3654	9.4824	3.17
2008m1	9.5243	9.656	3.17
2008m2	9.6597	9.86	3.17
2008m3	10.1863	10.3521	3.17
2008m4	10.4212	10.5756	3.17
2008m5	10.5794	10.6842	3.17
2008m6	10.6247	10.4514	3.17
2008m7	10.6645	10.3691	3.17
2008m8	10.6792	10.362	3.17
2008m9	10.7498	10.4464	3.17
2008m10	10.6392	10.3401	3.17
2008m11	10.6282	10.3594	3.17
2008m12	10.6269	10.4628	3.17
2009m1	10.6612	10.6769	3.17
2009m2	10.6763	10.7381	3.17
2009m3	10.8337	10.6737	3.17
2009m4	10.745	10.6388	3.17
2009m5	4.8691	5.3348	3.17
2009m6	1.6723	1.2281	3.17
2009m7	1.5182	1.2005	3.17
2009m8	1.2351	0.9827	3.17
2009m9	1.1065	0.9201	3.17
2009m10	1.0216	0.7901	3.17
2009m11	0.5326	0.3476	3.17
2009m12	0.3485	0.1378	3.17
2010m1	0.2327	0.0499	3.17
2010m2	0.1643	0.3482	3.17
2010m3	0.179	0.3939	3.17
2010m4	0.171	0.4146	3.17
2010m5	0.1114	0.3795	3.17
2010m6	0.5657	0.7022	3.17
2010m7	0.7222	0.7782	3.17
2010m8	0.829	0.7225	3.17
2010m9	0.7869	0.519	3.17
2010m10	0.7468	0.4634	3.17
2010m11	0.5894	0.5047	3.17
2010m12	0.6781	0.629	3.17
2011m1	0.7112	0.653	3.17
2011m2	0.7144	0.6063	3.17
2011m3	0.8157	0.6049	3.17
2011m4	0.8167	0.6189	3.17
2011m5	0.7882	0.5216	3.17
2011m6	0.6388	1.3485	3.17
2011m7	0.6181	1.1826	3.17
2011m8	0.589	0.5902	3.17
2011m9	3.0053	1.5063	3.17
2011m10	4.7875	3.0153	3.17
2011m11			3.17
2011m12			3.17
2012m1			3.17
2012m2			3.17
2012m3			3.17
2012m4			3.17
2012m5			3.17
2012m6			3.17
2012m7			3.17
2012m8			3.17
2012m9			3.17
2012m10			3.17
2012m11			3.17
2012m12			3.17

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Impulse Response of a Shock to the Unemployment Inflow Rate

step	Inflow upper 1	Inflow lower 1	Inflow series 1	Outflow upper 0	Outflow lower0	Outflow series 0	Unemployment rate upper 0	Unemployment rate lower 0	Unemployment rate series 0
1	1.29119	0.800643	1.04592	-0.366755	-0.912461	-0.639608	1.3694	1.05917	1.21428
2	1.11234	0.678536	0.895438	-0.722508	-1.28377	-1.00314	1.95043	1.2751	1.61276
3	1.10005	0.62322	0.861637	-0.676469	-1.44012	-1.0583	2.21695	1.35859	1.78777
4	1.02306	0.530729	0.776897	-0.658575	-1.47836	-1.06847	2.28017	1.28624	1.7832
5	0.96907	0.469944	0.719507	-0.55638	-1.41904	-0.987711	2.22566	1.16171	1.69369
6	0.912164	0.404969	0.658567	-0.463076	-1.32887	-0.895973	2.10493	1.01984	1.56238
7	0.86699	0.348637	0.607814	-0.35956	-1.21883	-0.789196	1.95854	0.874316	1.41643
8	0.828041	0.294551	0.561296	-0.261809	-1.11359	-0.687699	1.8109	0.732012	1.27145
9	0.795873	0.246028	0.52095	-0.168123	-1.01652	-0.59232	1.67454	0.595977	1.13526
10	0.768196	0.202148	0.485172	-0.083396	-0.931281	-0.507338	1.55342	0.470005	1.01171
11	0.744126	0.163478	0.453802	-0.009075	-0.856011	-0.432543	1.44686	0.357067	0.901964
12	0.722694	0.129484	0.426089	0.053244	-0.789207	-0.367982	1.35254	0.259136	0.805837

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Unemployment Forecast Errors of the SSUR Models and the SPF 2007-12

year	qtr	SPF (current quarter)	SSUR-2 (current quarter)	SSUR-3 (current quarter)	SPF (One quarter ahead)	SSUR-2 (One quarter ahead)	SSUR-3 (One quarter ahead)
2007	Q1	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.20	0.00	-0.08
2007	Q2	-0.08	0.08	0.01	0.03	0.35	0.21
2007	Q3	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.13	0.23	0.12
2007	Q4	0.05	0.08	0.08	0.09	0.26	0.16
2008	Q1	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.16	0.41	0.31
2008	Q2	0.17	0.29	0.28	0.61	0.84	0.79
2008	Q3	0.30	0.22	0.15	0.99	0.92	0.86
2008	Q4	0.18	0.15	0.20	0.99	1.05	1.17
2009	Q1	0.30	0.26	-0.07	0.91	0.75	-0.22
2009	Q2	0.20	0.00	0.05	0.10	-0.57	-0.52
2009	Q3	-0.01	0.23	0.10	0.20	0.63	0.28
2009	Q4	-0.05	-0.23	0.02	-0.52	-0.71	-0.34
2010	Q1	-0.22	0.18	0.03	-0.18	0.71	0.45
2010	Q2	-0.06	-0.23	-0.03	-0.02	-0.30	0.32
2010	Q3	-0.05	0.19	0.05	0.08	0.58	0.17
2010	Q4	0.01	0.06	0.18	-0.61	-0.36	-0.31
2011	Q1	-0.36	0.09	-0.26	-0.14	0.83	0.01
2011	Q2	0.24	0.18	0.13	0.44	0.44	0.17
2011	Q3	0.02	0.13	0.10	-0.23	0.19	-0.05
2011	Q4	-0.31	-0.20	-0.20	-0.69	-0.29	-0.64
2012	Q1	-0.16	0.10	0.03	-0.15	0.46	0.27
2012	Q2	0.03	0.19	-0.01	0.01	0.39	-0.24
2012	Q3	-0.14	-0.08	-0.16

Return to Figure 5

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