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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 201377

Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Dave Reifschneider, William Wascher, and David Wilcox

Figure 1.1 State-Space Model Estimates of Potential GDP and its Components (shaded region denotes 95% confidence interval)

  Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Level of Potential GDP Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Level of Potential GDP Level of Potential GDP 2000 to 2007 Trend for the Level of Potential GDP Level of Actual GDP Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Four Quarter Growth Rate of Potental GDP Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Four Quarter Growth Rate of Potental GDP Four Quarter Growth Rate of Potental GDP Four Quarter Growth Rate of Actual GDP Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Natural Rate of Unemployment Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Natural Rate of Unemployment Natural Rate of Unemployment Actual Unemployment Rate Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Actual Labor Force Participation Rate Contribution of Actual Capital Deepening Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for Trend Multifactor Productivity Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for Trend Multifactor Productivity Trend Multifactor Productivity 2000 to 2007 Trend in Multifactor Productivity
1990Q1 7837.98 8109.34 7972.50   8020.84 2.45 3.86 3.15 2.83 6.61 4.77 5.70 5.43 66.40 67.07 66.74 66.95 0.51 80.49 82.59 81.53  
1990Q2 7901.29 8174.87 8036.92   8052.72 2.45 3.86 3.16 2.47 6.53 4.68 5.61 5.47 66.41 67.08 66.74 66.76 0.46 80.74 82.84 81.78  
1990Q3 7958.36 8233.96 8094.99   8052.60 2.41 3.82 3.12 1.67 6.52 4.67 5.60 5.82 66.43 67.09 66.76 66.69 0.42 80.93 83.04 81.97  
1990Q4 8004.57 8281.80 8142.00   7982.05 2.36 3.77 3.07 0.56 6.46 4.61 5.54 6.24 66.43 67.10 66.77 66.64 0.42 80.98 83.09 82.03  
1991Q1 8050.61 8329.48 8188.86   7943.38 1.97 3.38 2.68 -0.97 6.43 4.58 5.51 6.70 66.43 67.09 66.76 66.48 0.48 81.10 83.22 82.16  
1991Q2 8097.96 8378.50 8237.04   7996.99 1.76 3.16 2.46 -0.69 6.36 4.51 5.44 6.95 66.43 67.09 66.76 66.47 0.47 81.25 83.37 82.31  
1991Q3 8145.48 8427.72 8285.40   8030.68 1.62 3.03 2.32 -0.27 6.22 4.37 5.30 6.98 66.42 67.09 66.75 66.29 0.39 81.34 83.46 82.39  
1991Q4 8203.32 8487.62 8344.26   8062.16 1.75 3.16 2.45 1.00 6.18 4.33 5.26 7.22 66.44 67.10 66.77 66.32 0.30 81.53 83.66 82.59  
1992Q1 8277.43 8564.35 8419.67   8150.65 2.08 3.48 2.78 2.61 6.32 4.47 5.40 7.50 66.45 67.11 66.78 66.52 0.24 81.95 84.08 83.01  
1992Q2 8341.81 8631.02 8485.18   8237.26 2.26 3.67 2.97 3.00 6.41 4.57 5.49 7.72 66.47 67.14 66.80 66.77 0.22 82.16 84.30 83.22  
1992Q3 8394.45 8685.56 8538.76   8322.25 2.31 3.72 3.01 3.63 6.43 4.58 5.51 7.75 66.48 67.14 66.81 66.83 0.27 82.27 84.41 83.33  
1992Q4 8437.03 8729.69 8582.11   8409.83 2.11 3.51 2.81 4.31 6.40 4.55 5.48 7.53 66.46 67.12 66.79 66.55 0.34 82.32 84.47 83.39  
1993Q1 8475.81 8769.89 8621.60   8425.29 1.67 3.07 2.37 3.37 6.27 4.42 5.35 7.28 66.45 67.12 66.79 66.46 0.38 82.22 84.36 83.28  
1993Q2 8525.99 8821.89 8672.68   8479.19 1.48 2.89 2.19 2.94 6.27 4.42 5.35 7.20 66.46 67.13 66.79 66.61 0.44 82.27 84.42 83.34  
1993Q3 8557.21 8854.29 8704.48   8523.83 1.22 2.63 1.92 2.42 6.22 4.36 5.29 6.93 66.44 67.11 66.77 66.63 0.48 82.24 84.38 83.30  
1993Q4 8628.21 8927.84 8776.75   8636.39 1.54 2.95 2.24 2.69 6.22 4.37 5.30 6.75 66.43 67.09 66.76 66.62 0.50 82.46 84.61 83.53  
1994Q1 8702.70 9005.02 8852.57   8720.47 1.94 3.35 2.64 3.50 6.21 4.35 5.29 6.58 66.41 67.07 66.74 66.45 0.55 82.67 84.83 83.74  
1994Q2 8773.31 9078.20 8924.46   8839.75 2.16 3.57 2.86 4.25 6.13 4.27 5.21 6.19 66.39 67.06 66.72 66.34 0.51 82.77 84.93 83.84  
1994Q3 8838.02 9145.28 8990.34   8896.69 2.53 3.94 3.23 4.37 6.11 4.25 5.19 6.03 66.39 67.06 66.73 66.40 0.52 82.88 85.04 83.95  
1994Q4 8892.46 9201.73 9045.77   8995.50 2.31 3.72 3.02 4.16 6.09 4.22 5.16 5.65 66.38 67.04 66.71 66.62 0.57 83.01 85.18 84.08  
1995Q1 8938.62 9249.64 9092.80   9017.57 1.97 3.38 2.68 3.41 6.06 4.20 5.13 5.51 66.37 67.03 66.70 66.56 0.63 83.05 85.22 84.13  
1995Q2 8990.29 9303.25 9145.43   9036.95 1.74 3.15 2.45 2.23 6.16 4.30 5.24 5.70 66.36 67.03 66.69 66.42 0.79 83.21 85.39 84.29  
1995Q3 9042.44 9357.36 9198.55   9112.90 1.59 2.99 2.29 2.43 6.23 4.37 5.30 5.68 66.36 67.03 66.69 66.40 0.87 83.33 85.51 84.41  
1995Q4 9101.16 9418.29 9258.37   9176.44 1.62 3.03 2.32 2.01 6.26 4.40 5.33 5.60 66.35 67.02 66.68 66.33 0.92 83.49 85.67 84.57  
1996Q1 9178.63 9498.64 9337.26   9239.30 1.95 3.36 2.65 2.46 6.23 4.36 5.30 5.57 66.37 67.04 66.70 66.31 0.93 83.74 85.93 84.83  
1996Q2 9276.60 9600.21 9437.02   9399.03 2.43 3.84 3.14 4.01 6.26 4.39 5.33 5.50 66.40 67.07 66.74 66.48 0.88 84.07 86.26 85.16  
1996Q3 9345.79 9672.00 9507.50   9480.78 2.60 4.01 3.30 4.04 6.25 4.38 5.32 5.29 66.43 67.10 66.76 66.66 0.89 84.21 86.41 85.31  
1996Q4 9424.82 9754.01 9588.00   9584.27 2.79 4.20 3.50 4.44 6.35 4.48 5.42 5.34 66.48 67.14 66.81 66.85 0.89 84.45 86.66 85.54  
1997Q1 9512.19 9844.65 9676.99   9657.99 2.87 4.28 3.57 4.53 6.36 4.49 5.43 5.24 66.50 67.17 66.83 66.86 0.92 84.67 86.89 85.77  
1997Q2 9611.31 9947.48 9777.95   9801.18 2.84 4.25 3.55 4.28 6.30 4.43 5.37 4.99 66.51 67.18 66.84 66.89 0.97 84.97 87.20 86.08  
1997Q3 9711.95 10051.89 9880.46   9924.20 3.14 4.55 3.85 4.68 6.33 4.46 5.40 4.88 66.51 67.18 66.84 66.92 1.08 85.32 87.55 86.43  
1997Q4 9795.80 10138.95 9965.90   10000.33 3.16 4.57 3.87 4.34 6.30 4.43 5.37 4.71 66.51 67.18 66.84 66.87 1.16 85.58 87.81 86.69  
1998Q1 9879.30 10225.67 10050.99   10094.80 3.09 4.50 3.79 4.52 6.32 4.45 5.39 4.63 66.51 67.18 66.84 66.96 1.27 85.84 88.08 86.95  
1998Q2 9974.78 10324.80 10148.28   10185.58 3.01 4.42 3.72 3.92 6.24 4.37 5.31 4.40 66.50 67.17 66.84 66.86 1.36 86.15 88.40 87.27  
1998Q3 10078.58 10432.58 10254.05   10319.97 3.01 4.42 3.71 3.99 6.35 4.48 5.42 4.52 66.51 67.17 66.84 66.91 1.42 86.59 88.86 87.72  
1998Q4 10172.57 10530.22 10349.85   10498.61 3.08 4.49 3.78 4.98 6.42 4.54 5.48 4.42 66.50 67.17 66.83 67.03 1.46 86.85 89.13 87.98  
1999Q1 10269.00 10630.41 10448.14   10592.15 3.17 4.58 3.88 4.93 6.46 4.58 5.52 4.27 66.48 67.14 66.81 67.04 1.52 87.20 89.49 88.34  
1999Q2 10366.09 10731.31 10547.12   10674.94 3.15 4.56 3.85 4.80 6.45 4.57 5.51 4.24 66.47 67.14 66.80 66.96 1.57 87.45 89.74 88.59  
1999Q3 10467.28 10836.49 10650.29   10810.68 3.09 4.50 3.79 4.75 6.48 4.59 5.54 4.23 66.46 67.13 66.80 66.95 1.59 87.77 90.07 88.91  
1999Q4 10590.14 10964.14 10775.52   11004.83 3.33 4.74 4.03 4.82 6.48 4.59 5.54 4.07 66.45 67.12 66.79 67.00 1.61 88.26 90.57 89.41  
2000Q1 10700.98 11079.38 10888.54   11033.57 3.42 4.83 4.13 4.17 6.52 4.63 5.58 4.05 66.46 67.12 66.79 67.24 1.59 88.70 91.02 89.85  
2000Q2 10815.18 11198.13 11004.99   11248.80 3.54 4.95 4.25 5.38 6.50 4.61 5.56 3.95 66.42 67.09 66.76 67.12 1.59 89.14 91.48 90.30  
2000Q3 10893.48 11279.74 11084.93   11258.26 3.29 4.71 4.00 4.14 6.53 4.63 5.58 4.03 66.38 67.05 66.71 66.85 1.56 89.46 91.81 90.62  
2000Q4 10975.92 11365.68 11169.10   11324.96 2.88 4.29 3.59 2.91 6.39 4.49 5.44 3.92 66.33 67.00 66.66 66.87 1.49 89.73 92.08 90.90  
2001Q1 11049.30 11442.29 11244.08   11287.75 2.51 3.92 3.21 2.30 6.39 4.48 5.44 4.23 66.31 66.98 66.65 67.07 1.39 90.09 92.46 91.27  
2001Q2 11127.48 11523.90 11323.96   11361.73 2.15 3.56 2.86 1.00 6.34 4.43 5.39 4.41 66.23 66.90 66.57 66.67 1.23 90.51 92.89 91.69  
2001Q3 11202.49 11602.27 11400.63   11330.38 2.10 3.51 2.81 0.64 6.31 4.40 5.36 4.82 66.17 66.84 66.50 66.56 1.04 90.89 93.28 92.08  
2001Q4 11275.80 11678.92 11475.59   11370.03 2.00 3.41 2.71 0.40 6.43 4.52 5.48 5.53 66.11 66.78 66.45 66.62 0.97 91.32 93.72 92.51  
2002Q1 11340.98 11747.21 11542.31   11467.14 1.91 3.32 2.62 1.59 6.49 4.57 5.54 5.70 66.03 66.69 66.36 66.46 0.91 91.79 94.20 92.99  
2002Q2 11422.81 11832.79 11625.99   11528.14 1.93 3.34 2.63 1.46 6.50 4.58 5.54 5.84 65.97 66.63 66.30 66.48 0.87 92.10 94.52 93.30  
2002Q3 11480.24 11893.14 11684.86   11586.61 1.76 3.17 2.46 2.26 6.37 4.45 5.42 5.73 65.90 66.56 66.23 66.40 0.87 92.32 94.76 93.53  
2002Q4 11529.69 11945.29 11735.65   11590.58 1.53 2.95 2.24 1.94 6.35 4.42 5.39 5.84 65.84 66.50 66.17 66.21 0.79 92.60 95.04 93.82  
2003Q1 11607.78 12027.16 11815.61   11638.92 1.63 3.05 2.34 1.50 6.27 4.34 5.31 5.87 65.78 66.44 66.11 66.09 0.69 93.01 95.47 94.23  
2003Q2 11672.19 12094.92 11881.67   11737.52 1.47 2.88 2.18 1.82 6.43 4.49 5.47 6.15 65.72 66.39 66.05 66.16 0.68 93.51 95.98 94.73  
2003Q3 11717.74 12143.21 11928.58   11930.68 1.36 2.77 2.06 2.97 6.49 4.55 5.53 6.11 65.65 66.32 65.98 65.84 0.68 93.90 96.38 95.13  
2003Q4 11808.53 12238.44 12021.57   12038.59 1.70 3.11 2.41 3.87 6.43 4.48 5.46 5.82 65.59 66.26 65.92 65.75 0.65 94.29 96.78 95.53  
2004Q1 11889.96 12324.04 12105.06   12117.92 1.71 3.13 2.42 4.12 6.44 4.49 5.47 5.69 65.54 66.20 65.87 65.74 0.63 94.67 97.17 95.91  
2004Q2 11951.14 12388.74 12167.97   12195.89 1.67 3.09 2.38 3.91 6.45 4.49 5.47 5.59 65.50 66.16 65.83 65.65 0.59 95.04 97.56 96.29  
2004Q3 12038.18 12480.33 12257.26   12286.67 2.01 3.42 2.72 2.98 6.44 4.47 5.46 5.43 65.47 66.13 65.80 65.63 0.54 95.40 97.93 96.66  
2004Q4 12131.25 12578.26 12352.73   12387.23 2.01 3.42 2.72 2.90 6.44 4.47 5.46 5.39 65.45 66.11 65.78 65.61 0.58 95.77 98.30 97.03  
2005Q1 12217.97 12669.69 12441.78   12515.00 2.04 3.45 2.74 3.28 6.44 4.46 5.46 5.28 65.42 66.09 65.75 65.53 0.64 96.17 98.72 97.44  
2005Q2 12295.63 12751.83 12521.65   12570.71 2.16 3.57 2.87 3.07 6.41 4.41 5.42 5.11 65.41 66.07 65.74 65.71 0.66 96.41 98.97 97.68  
2005Q3 12368.69 12829.29 12596.88   12670.53 2.03 3.44 2.73 3.12 6.39 4.39 5.39 4.96 65.39 66.06 65.72 65.75 0.64 96.72 99.29 98.00  
2005Q4 12435.54 12900.42 12665.85   12735.59 1.80 3.21 2.50 2.81 6.47 4.46 5.47 4.95 65.37 66.04 65.70 65.68 0.67 97.00 99.58 98.28  
2006Q1 12521.70 12991.70 12754.53   12896.38 1.77 3.19 2.48 3.05 6.46 4.44 5.46 4.72 65.36 66.03 65.70 65.76 0.67 97.34 99.93 98.63  
2006Q2 12597.46 13072.29 12832.68   12948.71 1.75 3.16 2.45 3.01 6.50 4.47 5.49 4.65 65.34 66.01 65.68 65.79 0.70 97.58 100.18 98.87  
2006Q3 12648.78 13127.65 12885.99   12950.44 1.56 2.98 2.27 2.21 6.54 4.51 5.53 4.64 65.32 65.99 65.65 65.79 0.75 97.70 100.31 99.00  
2006Q4 12701.97 13185.06 12941.26   13038.44 1.44 2.86 2.15 2.38 6.51 4.47 5.49 4.45 65.30 65.97 65.63 65.94 0.71 97.87 100.49 99.17  
2007Q1 12762.06 13249.77 13003.63   13056.12 1.23 2.64 1.93 1.24 6.48 4.43 5.46 4.52 65.28 65.95 65.61 65.95 0.67 97.95 100.58 99.26  
2007Q2 12832.03 13324.87 13076.13   13173.55 1.17 2.59 1.88 1.74 6.41 4.34 5.38 4.49 65.24 65.92 65.58 65.60 0.61 98.14 100.78 99.45  
2007Q3 12903.90 13402.10 13150.64   13269.83 1.32 2.74 2.03 2.47 6.44 4.36 5.40 4.65 65.21 65.89 65.55 65.54 0.59 98.37 101.01 99.68  
2007Q4 13005.12 13509.96 13255.14 13255.14 13325.96 1.69 3.11 2.40 2.21 6.40 4.30 5.36 4.80 65.20 65.88 65.54 65.59 0.57 98.68 101.34 100.00 100.00
2008Q1 13104.07 13615.63 13357.40 13340.47 13266.83 1.97 3.39 2.68 1.61 6.38 4.27 5.33 4.99 65.19 65.87 65.53 65.77 0.54 98.97 101.64 100.30 100.35
2008Q2 13204.04 13722.56 13460.80 13426.35 13310.47 2.19 3.61 2.90 1.04 6.37 4.25 5.32 5.33 65.17 65.85 65.51 65.69 0.52 99.30 101.98 100.63 100.70
2008Q3 13268.96 13793.23 13528.56 13512.78 13186.93 2.12 3.54 2.83 -0.62 6.46 4.32 5.40 6.02 65.15 65.83 65.49 65.68 0.47 99.58 102.28 100.92 101.05
2008Q4 13308.23 13837.42 13570.25 13599.77 12883.53 1.64 3.06 2.35 -3.32 6.45 4.30 5.39 6.89 65.10 65.78 65.44 65.56 0.37 99.68 102.38 101.02 101.40
2009Q1 13290.25 13822.24 13553.64 13687.32 12710.98 0.75 2.17 1.46 -4.19 6.77 4.62 5.70 8.31 65.06 65.74 65.40 65.38 0.33 99.91 102.63 101.27 101.75
2009Q2 13382.68 13922.08 13649.71 13775.43 12700.99 0.68 2.11 1.39 -4.58 6.89 4.72 5.82 9.30 65.02 65.71 65.36 65.35 0.21 100.34 103.08 101.70 102.11
2009Q3 13484.12 14031.53 13755.10 13864.11 12746.71 0.95 2.37 1.66 -3.34 6.74 4.55 5.65 9.63 64.96 65.65 65.30 64.99 0.03 100.67 103.43 102.04 102.46
2009Q4 13546.16 14100.20 13820.40 13953.37 12873.05 1.11 2.54 1.83 -0.08 6.82 4.61 5.72 9.95 64.89 65.58 65.23 64.56 -0.03 101.01 103.79 102.39 102.82
2010Q1 13589.23 14149.35 13866.46 14043.19 12947.56 1.57 3.00 2.28 1.86 6.84 4.62 5.74 9.84 64.81 65.49 65.15 64.53 -0.13 101.27 104.07 102.66 103.18
2010Q2 13622.08 14188.11 13902.22 14133.60 13019.59 1.12 2.55 1.83 2.51 6.83 4.59 5.72 9.67 64.72 65.41 65.06 64.53 -0.17 101.37 104.17 102.76 103.54
2010Q3 13617.87 14188.49 13900.25 14224.58 13103.50 0.34 1.76 1.05 2.80 6.95 4.69 5.82 9.50 64.60 65.29 64.94 64.29 -0.05 101.51 104.33 102.91 103.90
2010Q4 13617.07 14192.66 13901.89 14316.15 13181.21 -0.13 1.30 0.59 2.39 7.13 4.85 6.00 9.56 64.49 65.18 64.84 64.09 0.05 101.62 104.46 103.03 104.26
2011Q1 13653.26 14235.66 13941.42 14408.31 13183.78 -0.18 1.26 0.54 1.82 6.96 4.65 5.81 9.04 64.37 65.07 64.72 63.92 0.06 101.70 104.56 103.12 104.62
2011Q2 13680.01 14269.11 13971.45 14501.07 13264.66 -0.22 1.21 0.50 1.88 7.06 4.73 5.90 9.07 64.27 64.97 64.62 63.83 0.16 101.83 104.72 103.26 104.99
2011Q3 13707.05 14303.20 14001.95 14594.42 13306.92 0.01 1.45 0.73 1.55 7.09 4.73 5.92 9.02 64.16 64.87 64.52 63.78 0.20 101.89 104.80 103.33 105.35
2011Q4 13758.53 14363.17 14057.60 14688.37 13441.05 0.39 1.83 1.11 1.97 7.01 4.64 5.83 8.68 64.06 64.77 64.41 63.75 0.20 102.04 104.99 103.50 105.72
2012Q1 13798.30 14411.36 14101.50 14782.93 13506.43 0.42 1.86 1.14 2.45 6.91 4.50 5.72 8.24 63.94 64.67 64.31 63.74 0.29 102.13 105.11 103.61 106.09
2012Q2 13809.17 14429.86 14116.10 14878.10 13548.54 0.30 1.76 1.03 2.14 6.99 4.56 5.78 8.16 63.82 64.57 64.19 63.69 0.36 102.21 105.24 103.71 106.46
2012Q3 13829.38 14458.73 14140.56 14973.88 13652.52 0.26 1.71 0.99 2.60 6.98 4.51 5.75 8.03 63.72 64.49 64.11 63.55 0.37 102.28 105.37 103.81 106.83
2012Q4 13868.07 14507.78 14184.32 15070.27 13665.44 0.16 1.63 0.90 1.67 7.01 4.51 5.77 7.82 63.62 64.42 64.02 63.63 0.42 102.44 105.60 104.01 107.20
2013Q1 13933.28 14585.97 14255.89 15167.29 13725.71 0.34 1.83 1.09 1.62 7.03 4.51 5.78 7.74 63.50 64.35 63.93 63.38 0.45 102.65 105.90 104.26 107.57
2013Q2                                            
2013Q3                                            
2013Q4                                            

Figure 1.2. Estimates of Resource Utilization (shaded region denotes 95% confidence interval)

  Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimated of the GDP Gap Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimate of the GDP Gap 2-Sided Estimate of the GDP Gap 2-Sided Estimate of the Common Cycle Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimated of the Unemployment Gap Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimate of the Unemployment Gap 2-Sided Estimate of the Unemployment Gap 2-Sided Estimate of the Rescaled Common Cycle
1990Q1 2.31 -1.10 0.60 0.29 -1.18 0.66 -0.27 -0.19
1990Q2 1.90 -1.51 0.20 -0.10 -1.06 0.79 -0.14 0.06
1990Q3 1.18 -2.23 -0.53 -0.96 -0.70 1.14 0.22 0.60
1990Q4 -0.28 -3.69 -1.98 -2.07 -0.22 1.63 0.70 1.29
1991Q1 -1.34 -4.75 -3.04 -2.98 0.28 2.13 1.20 1.85
1991Q2 -1.25 -4.66 -2.96 -3.23 0.59 2.44 1.51 2.01
1991Q3 -1.42 -4.83 -3.12 -3.51 0.76 2.62 1.69 2.18
1991Q4 -1.74 -5.14 -3.44 -3.95 1.04 2.90 1.97 2.45
1992Q1 -1.54 -4.95 -3.25 -3.90 1.19 3.04 2.11 2.42
1992Q2 -1.26 -4.67 -2.97 -3.81 1.31 3.16 2.23 2.37
1992Q3 -0.86 -4.27 -2.57 -3.76 1.32 3.17 2.24 2.33
1992Q4 -0.32 -3.73 -2.03 -3.16 1.13 2.98 2.05 1.96
1993Q1 -0.60 -4.01 -2.30 -3.16 1.00 2.86 1.93 1.96
1993Q2 -0.55 -3.96 -2.26 -2.77 0.92 2.77 1.84 1.73
1993Q3 -0.39 -3.80 -2.10 -2.59 0.71 2.56 1.63 1.61
1993Q4 0.09 -3.32 -1.61 -2.04 0.52 2.38 1.45 1.27
1994Q1 0.20 -3.21 -1.50 -1.83 0.37 2.23 1.29 1.14
1994Q2 0.75 -2.66 -0.95 -1.19 0.06 1.92 0.98 0.74
1994Q3 0.66 -2.76 -1.05 -0.92 -0.09 1.78 0.84 0.58
1994Q4 1.15 -2.27 -0.56 -0.45 -0.44 1.42 0.49 0.28
1995Q1 0.88 -2.54 -0.83 -0.50 -0.55 1.31 0.37 0.32
1995Q2 0.52 -2.90 -1.19 -0.80 -0.46 1.40 0.46 0.50
1995Q3 0.78 -2.65 -0.94 -0.38 -0.55 1.32 0.38 0.24
1995Q4 0.82 -2.60 -0.89 -0.38 -0.66 1.20 0.26 0.24
1996Q1 0.66 -2.77 -1.05 -0.46 -0.65 1.21 0.27 0.29
1996Q2 1.31 -2.12 -0.40 -0.04 -0.76 1.11 0.17 0.02
1996Q3 1.43 -2.00 -0.28 0.24 -0.96 0.91 -0.03 -0.15
1996Q4 1.68 -1.76 -0.04 0.57 -1.01 0.86 -0.08 -0.36
1997Q1 1.52 -1.91 -0.20 0.69 -1.12 0.75 -0.19 -0.43
1997Q2 1.96 -1.48 0.24 0.87 -1.30 0.57 -0.37 -0.55
1997Q3 2.16 -1.28 0.44 1.16 -1.45 0.42 -0.52 -0.73
1997Q4 2.07 -1.38 0.34 1.31 -1.59 0.28 -0.66 -0.83
1998Q1 2.16 -1.29 0.43 1.45 -1.69 0.18 -0.76 -0.92
1998Q2 2.09 -1.36 0.37 1.61 -1.84 0.04 -0.91 -1.02
1998Q3 2.37 -1.09 0.64 1.71 -1.84 0.04 -0.90 -1.08
1998Q4 3.15 -0.30 1.43 2.12 -2.00 -0.12 -1.06 -1.34
1999Q1 3.10 -0.36 1.37 2.25 -2.19 -0.31 -1.25 -1.43
1999Q2 2.94 -0.53 1.20 2.19 -2.21 -0.33 -1.28 -1.39
1999Q3 3.23 -0.24 1.49 2.33 -2.24 -0.36 -1.31 -1.48
1999Q4 3.84 0.37 2.11 2.72 -2.41 -0.53 -1.47 -1.73
2000Q1 3.06 -0.41 1.32 2.90 -2.47 -0.58 -1.53 -1.84
2000Q2 3.93 0.45 2.19 2.87 -2.55 -0.66 -1.61 -1.82
2000Q3 3.29 -0.19 1.55 2.64 -2.50 -0.60 -1.55 -1.68
2000Q4 3.13 -0.36 1.39 2.14 -2.47 -0.57 -1.53 -1.35
2001Q1 2.14 -1.36 0.39 1.81 -2.16 -0.25 -1.21 -1.14
2001Q2 2.08 -1.42 0.33 1.02 -1.93 -0.03 -0.98 -0.65
2001Q3 1.14 -2.37 -0.62 -0.06 -1.49 0.42 -0.54 0.04
2001Q4 0.83 -2.68 -0.92 -0.94 -0.90 1.01 0.05 0.59
2002Q1 1.11 -2.41 -0.65 -0.66 -0.79 1.13 0.17 0.42
2002Q2 0.92 -2.61 -0.85 -0.67 -0.65 1.26 0.30 0.42
2002Q3 0.92 -2.61 -0.84 -0.84 -0.65 1.28 0.31 0.53
2002Q4 0.53 -3.01 -1.24 -0.95 -0.51 1.42 0.45 0.60
2003Q1 0.27 -3.28 -1.51 -1.35 -0.40 1.54 0.56 0.85
2003Q2 0.56 -3.00 -1.22 -1.22 -0.28 1.66 0.69 0.77
2003Q3 1.80 -1.77 0.02 -0.61 -0.39 1.56 0.58 0.38
2003Q4 1.93 -1.65 0.14 -0.35 -0.61 1.34 0.36 0.22
2004Q1 1.90 -1.69 0.11 -0.21 -0.76 1.20 0.22 0.13
2004Q2 2.03 -1.57 0.23 0.06 -0.86 1.10 0.12 -0.04
2004Q3 2.04 -1.56 0.24 0.29 -1.00 0.97 -0.02 -0.18
2004Q4 2.09 -1.53 0.28 0.34 -1.05 0.92 -0.07 -0.21
2005Q1 2.40 -1.23 0.59 0.57 -1.16 0.82 -0.18 -0.36
2005Q2 2.21 -1.43 0.39 0.67 -1.30 0.69 -0.31 -0.42
2005Q3 2.41 -1.25 0.58 0.81 -1.42 0.58 -0.43 -0.51
2005Q4 2.38 -1.29 0.55 1.16 -1.52 0.49 -0.52 -0.73
2006Q1 2.95 -0.74 1.11 1.79 -1.74 0.27 -0.74 -1.13
2006Q2 2.75 -0.95 0.90 1.62 -1.85 0.18 -0.84 -1.02
2006Q3 2.36 -1.36 0.50 1.66 -1.90 0.13 -0.89 -1.05
2006Q4 2.61 -1.12 0.75 1.93 -2.06 -0.02 -1.05 -1.22
2007Q1 2.28 -1.47 0.40 1.39 -1.97 0.09 -0.94 -0.88
2007Q2 2.63 -1.14 0.74 1.35 -1.92 0.15 -0.89 -0.85
2007Q3 2.80 -0.99 0.90 0.95 -1.79 0.29 -0.75 -0.60
2007Q4 2.44 -1.37 0.53 0.56 -1.60 0.49 -0.56 -0.35
2008Q1 1.23 -2.60 -0.68 0.02 -1.39 0.72 -0.34 -0.01
2008Q2 0.80 -3.05 -1.12 -0.79 -1.05 1.08 0.01 0.49
2008Q3 -0.62 -4.50 -2.56 -2.12 -0.44 1.69 0.62 1.32
2008Q4 -3.24 -7.14 -5.19 -4.75 0.43 2.58 1.50 2.94
2009Q1 -4.46 -8.38 -6.42 -6.32 1.54 3.70 2.61 3.90
2009Q2 -5.23 -9.18 -7.20 -7.57 2.41 4.58 3.49 4.65
2009Q3 -5.62 -9.60 -7.61 -8.04 2.90 5.09 3.98 4.93
2009Q4 -5.10 -9.11 -7.10 -7.51 3.13 5.34 4.23 4.61
2010Q1 -4.84 -8.88 -6.86 -6.88 3.00 5.22 4.10 4.23
2010Q2 -4.52 -8.59 -6.56 -6.56 2.84 5.08 3.95 4.04
2010Q3 -3.85 -7.96 -5.90 -5.87 2.55 4.82 3.68 3.62
2010Q4 -3.25 -7.39 -5.32 -5.50 2.42 4.70 3.56 3.40
2011Q1 -3.50 -7.68 -5.59 -5.26 2.08 4.39 3.23 3.25
2011Q2 -3.08 -7.30 -5.19 -5.10 2.01 4.34 3.16 3.15
2011Q3 -2.96 -7.22 -5.09 -5.05 1.94 4.29 3.11 3.12
2011Q4 -2.33 -6.64 -4.49 -4.41 1.67 4.05 2.85 2.73
2012Q1 -2.14 -6.49 -4.31 -3.88 1.33 3.74 2.53 2.41
2012Q2 -1.91 -6.30 -4.10 -3.94 1.17 3.60 2.38 2.45
2012Q3 -1.29 -5.74 -3.51 -3.58 1.05 3.52 2.28 2.22
2012Q4 -1.47 -5.98 -3.73 -3.12 0.82 3.31 2.06 1.94
2013Q1 -1.50 -6.08 -3.79 -3.10 0.71 3.23 1.96 1.93
2013Q2                
2013Q3                
2013Q4                

Figure 1.3. Real-Time Estimates and Projections of Potential Output and the Natural Rate

  2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP 2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP 2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP 2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP 2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP Current Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP 2008 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP 2009 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP 2010 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP 2011 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP 2012 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP Current Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP 2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP Current Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2008 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2009 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2010 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2011 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2012 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP Current Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP 2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Current Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2008 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2009 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2010 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2011 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2012 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Current Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment 2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap 2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap 2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap 2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap 2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap Current Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap
2005Q1 12381.59 12371.64 12519.94 12481.91 12430.45 12441.78             2.48 2.57 2.85 2.81 2.79 2.78             4.81 4.87 5.35 5.48 5.62 5.46             0.46 0.40 -0.08 -0.20 -0.34 -0.18
2005Q2 12454.39 12449.23 12600.53 12561.33 12510.37 12521.65             2.59 2.71 2.96 2.93 2.93 2.91             4.77 4.85 5.31 5.44 5.59 5.42             0.34 0.26 -0.21 -0.34 -0.48 -0.31
2005Q3 12533.30 12527.29 12677.49 12637.08 12585.49 12596.88             2.49 2.58 2.81 2.78 2.78 2.77             4.76 4.83 5.29 5.42 5.56 5.39             0.22 0.13 -0.33 -0.46 -0.60 -0.43
2005Q4 12595.79 12592.74 12748.75 12706.35 12654.48 12665.85             2.32 2.43 2.57 2.53 2.53 2.53             4.76 4.89 5.36 5.49 5.64 5.47             0.18 0.03 -0.42 -0.55 -0.69 -0.52
2006Q1 12697.67 12683.56 12839.30 12795.88 12742.34 12754.53             2.55 2.52 2.55 2.52 2.51 2.51             4.68 4.85 5.36 5.48 5.63 5.46             0.02 -0.15 -0.65 -0.77 -0.92 -0.74
2006Q2 12781.75 12767.53 12921.38 12874.84 12820.94 12832.68             2.63 2.56 2.55 2.50 2.48 2.48             4.69 4.89 5.38 5.51 5.67 5.49             -0.03 -0.23 -0.74 -0.87 -1.02 -0.84
2006Q3 12848.09 12838.46 12978.35 12926.87 12873.05 12885.99             2.51 2.48 2.37 2.29 2.28 2.30             4.67 4.90 5.41 5.55 5.71 5.53             -0.01 -0.26 -0.78 -0.92 -1.07 -0.89
2006Q4 12920.11 12912.64 13035.62 12980.03 12925.18 12941.26             2.57 2.54 2.25 2.15 2.14 2.17             4.55 4.76 5.37 5.52 5.68 5.49             -0.12 -0.34 -0.92 -1.08 -1.23 -1.05
2007Q1 12989.04 12989.61 13100.43 13043.01 12985.78 13003.63             2.29 2.41 2.03 1.93 1.91 1.95             4.55 4.70 5.33 5.50 5.65 5.46             -0.06 -0.21 -0.84 -1.00 -1.13 -0.94
2007Q2 13091.26 13096.28 13192.91 13110.26 13054.96 13076.13             2.42 2.57 2.10 1.83 1.83 1.90             4.50 4.66 5.26 5.42 5.56 5.38             0.01 -0.15 -0.79 -0.95 -1.08 -0.89
2007Q3 13196.51 13200.66 13283.09 13178.83 13126.52 13150.64             2.71 2.82 2.35 1.95 1.97 2.05             4.55 4.70 5.28 5.44 5.59 5.40             0.13 -0.04 -0.64 -0.79 -0.94 -0.75
2007Q4 13272.29 13268.47 13384.70 13291.01 13229.73 13255.14             2.73 2.76 2.68 2.40 2.36 2.43             4.50 4.62 5.26 5.42 5.54 5.36             0.30 0.15 -0.44 -0.62 -0.75 -0.56
2008Q1 13342.58 13345.08 13470.21 13398.98 13330.85 13357.40 13342.58           2.72 2.74 2.82 2.73 2.66 2.72 2.72           4.48 4.58 5.18 5.35 5.51 5.33 4.48           0.46 0.36 -0.23 -0.41 -0.53 -0.34
2008Q2   13461.44 13564.60 13497.64 13432.59 13460.80 13409.00             2.79 2.82 2.95 2.89 2.94 2.43             4.65 5.19 5.32 5.50 5.32 4.48             0.71 0.12 -0.01 -0.18 0.01
2008Q3   13578.59 13647.77 13580.99 13496.65 13528.56 13475.87             2.86 2.75 3.05 2.82 2.87 2.12             4.75 5.30 5.35 5.59 5.40 4.49             1.29 0.73 0.68 0.43 0.62
2008Q4   13627.28 13705.71 13634.83 13542.36 13570.25 13543.19             2.70 2.40 2.59 2.36 2.38 2.04             4.77 5.39 5.38 5.58 5.39 4.49             2.08 1.55 1.53 1.32 1.50
2009Q1   13666.05 13741.10 13665.73 13560.37 13553.64 13610.94 13666.05           2.41 2.01 1.99 1.72 1.47 2.01 2.41           5.01 5.54 5.58 5.77 5.70 4.49 5.01           3.06 2.67 2.64 2.52 2.61
2009Q2     13804.69 13691.71 13608.39 13649.71 13679.13 13742.74             1.77 1.44 1.31 1.40 2.01 2.09             5.72 5.80 5.89 5.82 4.50 4.98             3.56 3.49 3.41 3.49
2009Q3     13885.69 13760.82 13683.37 13755.10 13747.74 13819.80             1.74 1.32 1.38 1.67 2.02 1.78             5.63 5.73 5.78 5.65 4.50 4.95             4.03 3.97 3.87 3.98
2009Q4     13968.76 13831.21 13726.39 13820.40 13816.78 13897.24             1.92 1.44 1.36 1.84 2.02 1.98             5.77 5.84 5.88 5.72 4.50 4.93             4.28 4.17 4.09 4.23
2010Q1     14024.20 13889.96 13787.95 13866.46 13886.25 13975.06 14024.20           2.06 1.64 1.68 2.31 2.02 2.26 2.06           5.65 5.77 5.90 5.74 4.50 4.91 5.65           4.06 3.93 3.91 4.10
2010Q2       13956.13 13850.46 13902.22 13956.13 14053.27 14092.37             1.93 1.78 1.85 2.02 2.26 2.08             5.79 5.93 5.72 4.50 4.89 5.62             3.87 3.73 3.95
2010Q3       13991.73 13886.14 13900.25 14026.42 14131.88 14161.95             1.68 1.48 1.06 2.03 2.26 1.99             5.85 6.02 5.82 4.51 4.87 5.59             3.74 3.52 3.68
2010Q4       14026.72 13898.14 13901.89 14097.13 14210.88 14232.88             1.41 1.25 0.59 2.03 2.26 1.89             5.98 6.16 6.00 4.51 4.86 5.57             3.65 3.43 3.56
2011Q1       14044.45 13927.55 13941.42 14168.25 14290.29 14305.07 14044.45           1.11 1.01 0.54 2.03 2.26 2.00 1.11           5.75 5.93 5.81 4.51 4.84 5.55 5.75           3.19 3.06 3.23
2011Q2         13955.40 13971.45 14239.78 14370.12 14378.49 14097.41             0.76 0.50 2.03 2.25 2.03 1.01             6.03 5.90 4.51 4.83 5.53 5.72             3.04 3.16
2011Q3         13983.46 14001.95 14311.72 14450.35 14453.07 14152.77             0.70 0.73 2.03 2.25 2.06 1.15             6.12 5.92 4.51 4.82 5.51 5.70             2.95 3.11
2011Q4         14032.16 14057.60 14384.06 14531.01 14528.77 14210.36             0.96 1.12 2.04 2.25 2.08 1.31             6.02 5.83 4.51 4.80 5.49 5.68             2.69 2.85
2012Q1         14075.41 14101.50 14456.81 14612.09 14605.54 14270.06 14075.41           1.06 1.15 2.04 2.25 2.10 1.61 1.06           5.88 5.72 4.51 4.79 5.47 5.66 5.88           2.36 2.53
2012Q2           14116.10 14529.97 14693.60 14683.34 14331.74 14121.12             1.04 2.04 2.25 2.12 1.66 1.19             5.78 4.51 4.78 5.46 5.64 5.85             2.38
2012Q3           14140.56 14603.53 14775.54 14762.13 14395.28 14169.93             0.99 2.04 2.25 2.14 1.71 1.33             5.75 4.51 4.77 5.44 5.63 5.83             2.28
2012Q4           14184.32 14677.49 14857.91 14841.87 14460.58 14221.62             0.90 2.04 2.25 2.16 1.76 1.35             5.77 4.51 4.76 5.43 5.61 5.81             2.06
2013Q1           14255.89   14940.73 14922.54 14527.54 14276.02 14255.89           1.09   2.25 2.17 1.80 1.43 1.09           5.78   4.76 5.42 5.60 5.80 5.78           1.96
2013Q2               15023.99 15004.11 14596.07 14332.95 14313.42               2.25 2.18 1.84 1.50 1.40               4.75 5.41 5.59 5.78 5.75            
2013Q3               15107.69 15086.54 14666.09 14392.25 14373.28               2.25 2.20 1.88 1.57 1.65               4.74 5.40 5.58 5.76 5.72            
2013Q4               15191.85 15169.82 14737.52 14453.78 14435.32               2.25 2.21 1.92 1.63 1.77               4.74 5.39 5.56 5.75 5.70            
2014Q1                 15253.92 14810.29 14517.41 14499.41                 2.22 1.95 1.69 1.71                 5.38 5.56 5.74 5.67            
2014Q2                 15338.82 14884.34 14583.00 14565.44                 2.23 1.98 1.74 1.76                 5.37 5.55 5.72 5.65            
2014Q3                 15424.50 14959.62 14650.46 14633.29                 2.24 2.00 1.79 1.81                 5.37 5.54 5.71 5.63            
2014Q4                 15510.94 15036.06 14719.67 14702.86                 2.25 2.03 1.84 1.85                 5.36 5.53 5.70 5.61            
2015Q1                   15113.63 14790.55 14774.07                   2.05 1.88 1.89                   5.52 5.69 5.60            
2015Q2                   15192.26 14863.00 14846.83                   2.07 1.92 1.93                   5.52 5.68 5.58            
2015Q3                   15271.93 14936.96 14921.05                   2.09 1.96 1.97                   5.51 5.68 5.57            
2015Q4                   15352.59 15012.33 14996.68                   2.11 1.99 2.00                   5.51 5.67 5.55            
2016Q1                     15089.07 15073.65                     2.02 2.03                     5.66 5.54            
2016Q2                     15167.10 15151.89                     2.05 2.05                     5.66 5.53            
2016Q3                     15246.36 15231.35                     2.07 2.08                     5.65 5.52            
2016Q4                     15326.82 15311.97                     2.09 2.10                     5.65 5.51            
2017Q1                       15393.73                       2.12                       5.50            
2017Q2                       15476.56                       2.14                       5.49            
2017Q3                       15560.44                       2.16                       5.49            
2017Q4                       15645.32                       2.18                       5.48            

Figure 2.1 - Employment Losses in Housing-Related Industries

  Private Employment Construction Employment Real Estate Employment Mortgage Finance Employment
Jan 04 94.71 88.65 93.43 86.73
Feb 04 94.73 88.52 93.46 87.39
Mar 04 94.99 89.15 93.69 92.26
Apr 04 95.18 89.33 94.13 93.07
May 04 95.45 89.94 94.91 93.58
Jun 04 95.53 90.12 94.61 93.44
Jul 04 95.55 90.32 94.45 93.44
Aug 04 95.65 90.65 94.86 95.43
Sep 04 95.77 90.99 95.42 93.73
Oct 04 96.05 91.61 95.41 96.61
Nov 04 96.08 91.79 95.79 97.05
Dec 04 96.19 92.13 95.99 98.38
Jan 05 96.26 91.84 95.82 98.08
Feb 05 96.46 92.6 96.2 100.22
Mar 05 96.59 92.96 96.28 101.33
Apr 05 96.89 94.06 96.45 101.33
May 05 97.01 94.42 96.74 102.43
Jun 05 97.24 94.93 97.16 104.87
Jul 05 97.48 95.18 97.74 103.98
Aug 05 97.64 95.72 98.2 106.05
Sep 05 97.72 95.99 98.45 105.9
Oct 05 97.8 96.57 98.9 107.37
Nov 05 98.06 97.4 99.04 106.64
Dec 05 98.18 97.51 99.34 108.04
Jan 06 98.45 98.39 99.91 107.74
Feb 06 98.7 99.21 100.18 108.41
Mar 06 98.92 99.53 99.8 107.96
Apr 06 99.06 100.01 100.41 109.29
May 06 99.08 99.84 100.16 108.33
Jun 06 99.15 99.66 100.29 107.15
Jul 06 99.29 99.83 100.11 107.3
Aug 06 99.41 99.94 100.09 105.75
Sep 06 99.49 99.91 99.93 104.94
Oct 06 99.5 99.44 99.45 106.34
Nov 06 99.66 99.24 100.02 104.87
Dec 06 99.8 99.48 99.95 104.06
Jan 07 100 100 100 100
Feb 07 100.05 98.72 100.07 101.7
Mar 07 100.19 99.75 100.27 100.96
Apr 07 100.24 99.5 100.31 99.48
May 07 100.34 99.33 100.34 94.25
Jun 07 100.4 99.51 100.3 92.04
Jul 07 100.4 99.16 100.29 87.98
Aug 07 100.33 98.51 100.16 86.87
Sep 07 100.35 98.08 100.07 83.04
Oct 07 100.41 97.93 99.97 78.83
Nov 07 100.48 97.39 99.61 75.66
Dec 07 100.52 96.96 99.55 72.57
Jan 08 100.52 96.78 99.6 68.29
Feb 08 100.42 96.48 99.48 67.48
Mar 08 100.33 95.87 99.5 65.04
Apr 08 100.14 94.85 99.35 63.27
May 08 99.95 94.16 99.51 62.46
Jun 08 99.77 93.37 99.82 61.95
Jul 08 99.54 92.69 99.29 60.55
Aug 08 99.31 92.09 99.29 59.59
Sep 08 98.93 91.18 98.63 58.55
Oct 08 98.51 90.19 98.39 55.46
Nov 08 97.83 88.19 97.96 54.13
Dec 08 97.22 86.74 97.65 53.1
Jan 09 96.51 84.84 96.94 51.62
Feb 09 95.91 83.53 96.16 51.18
Mar 09 95.2 81.44 95.66 51.03
Apr 09 94.49 79.6 94.83 51.11
May 09 94.24 79 94.21 48.97
Jun 09 93.85 77.77 94.18 49.48
Jul 09 93.61 76.74 94.27 47.79
Aug 09 93.42 75.74 94.07 47.12
Sep 09 93.27 74.89 94.25 47.35
Oct 09 93.07 74.1 94.1 45.94
Nov 09 93.04 73.7 94.61 47.12
Dec 09 92.9 73.14 94.09 46.98
Jan 10 92.88 72.25 94.01 44.76
Feb 10 92.86 71.48 93.92 45.06
Mar 10 92.96 71.74 93.48 44.69
Apr 10 93.1 71.9 93.76 44.76
May 10 93.19 71.55 93.25 45.58
Jun 10 93.27 71.35 92.94 44.99
Jul 10 93.36 71.16 92.55 45.28
Aug 10 93.48 71.44 92.73 45.5
Sep 10 93.57 71.18 92.91 47.05
Oct 10 93.74 71.21 92.91 48.82
Nov 10 93.87 71.16 92.76 49.04
Dec 10 93.97 70.78 93.11 48.16
Jan 11 94.04 70.36 92.92 45.13
Feb 11 94.25 70.91 93.11 44.91
Mar 11 94.44 71 93.22 43.51
Apr 11 94.71 71.16 93.61 42.26
May 11 94.87 71.51 93.95 41.59
Jun 11 95.02 71.59 93.57 40.71
Jul 11 95.2 71.81 93.59 41.15
Aug 11 95.31 71.79 93.66 40.78
Sep 11 95.53 72.27 93.23 41.81
Oct 11 95.69 72.18 93.68 43.36
Nov 11 95.86 72.19 93.89 44.17
Dec 11 96.07 72.65 93.79 44.91
Jan 12 96.35 72.87 94 43.81
Feb 12 96.58 73.06 94.17 44.76
Mar 12 96.77 73.01 94.37 45.65
Apr 12 96.87 72.96 94.36 47.64
May 12 97 72.69 94.55 49.19
Jun 12 97.07 72.78 94.67 51.7
Jul 12 97.22 72.84 94.61 52.95
Aug 12 97.34 72.88 94.29 54.35
Sep 12 97.44 72.92 94.71 54.87
Oct 12 97.63 73.13 94.69 55.9
Nov 12 97.85 73.44 94.73 56.49
Dec 12 98.05 73.93 94.96 56.93
Jan 13 98.19 74.24 95.23 56.49
Feb 13 98.47 74.86 95.6 56.71
Mar 13 98.6 75.07 95.9 57.08
Apr 13 98.76 74.98 95.78 58.92
May 13 98.92 74.96 96.16 58.33
Jun 13 99.09 75.09 96.41 58.19
Jul 13 99.18 75.13 96.84 59.37
Aug 13 99.36 75.15 96.79 57.74
Sep 13 99.49 75.38 96.85 55.9
Oct 13 99.67 75.52 97.1  
Nov 13        
Dec 13        

Figure 2.2 - Dispersion in Employment Change Across Industries

  Idiosyncratic dispersion Total dispersion Dispersion attributed to usual cyclicality
61:1   13.4  
61:2   8.69  
61:3 -1.12 5.4 3.12
61:4 -1.16 2.17 0.44
62:1 0.13 2.69 0.08
62:2 0.05 2.06 0.1
62:3 1.19 2.06 -0.91
62:4 0.63 1.77 -0.83
63:1 0.29 2.29 -0.18
63:2 -1.06 1.81 0.39
63:3 -1.54 1.38 0.37
63:4 -1.16 1.6 0.3
64:1 -0.52 1.41 -0.33
64:2 0.52 1.62 -1.05
64:3 0.47 1.29 -1.18
64:4 -0.45 0.97 -0.63
65:1 -1.44 0.82 0.09
65:2 -0.94 1.4 0.14
65:3 -0.44 1.88 0.18
65:4 0.39 2.81 0.41
66:1 2.82 2.94 -1.61
66:2 6.32 4.5 -3.18
66:3 5.97 3.87 -3.47
66:4 6.83 5.67 -2.74
67:1 3.74 4.35 -1.3
67:2 2.48 5.62 0.9
67:3 0.88 6.01 2.62
67:4 0.19 5.18 2.43
68:1 -0.18 3.83 1.5
68:2 -1.02 1.76 0.35
68:3 -0.04 1.1 -1.02
68:4 1.26 1.29 -1.87
69:1 0.92 1.95 -0.92
69:2 0.78 2.41 -0.44
69:3 0.07 2.34 0.05
69:4 -0.17 2.45 0.16
70:1 -0.16 3.87 1.48
70:2 -0.79 7.13 5.15
70:3 -0.35 10.64 7.93
70:4 3.3 18.59 12.24
71:1 1.53 13.62 9.11
71:2 2.93 10.03 4.19
71:3 4.38 8.61 1.81
71:4 0.88 3.77 0.57
72:1 1.81 3.75 -0.35
72:2 -0.03 2.35 0.3
72:3 -0.45 1.68 -0.02
72:4 1.07 2.55 -0.36
73:1 0.43 2.96 0.79
73:2 0.29 2.73 0.93
73:3 -0.45 3.21 2.2
73:4 -0.87 1.93 1.05
74:1 -0.85 1.33 0.09
74:2 -0.89 2.37 0.89
74:3 0.1 5.76 2.74
74:4 -0.03 12.07 9.06
75:1 5.56 29.22 20.57
75:2 7.37 37.27 26.63
75:3 6.65 30.85 20.95
75:4 2.79 15.98 10.17
76:1 0.64 3.29 0.21
76:2 -0.14 2.34 0.47
76:3 0.82 2.23 -0.07
76:4 1.1 2.09 -0.56
77:1 0.18 2.13 0.17
77:2 -0.19 2.51 0.81
77:3 0.03 2.86 0.84
77:4 0.76 3.12 0.62
78:1 0.38 1.7 -0.27
78:2 1.11 2.53 -0.28
78:3 2.1 3.66 -0.22
78:4 1.8 3.72 0.44
79:1 2.34 3.95 0.06
79:2 1.34 3.17 0.42
79:3 0.05 2.29 0.61
79:4 -0.01 2.54 0.27
80:1 0.36 3.77 1.04
80:2 0.55 9.57 6.44
80:3 1.26 12.97 9.05
80:4 0.17 9.25 6.04
81:1 1.09 7.88 3.71
81:2 2.15 3.94 -0.93
81:3 4.98 6.23 -1.1
81:4 3.07 6.64 1.44
82:1 1.96 7.58 3.5
82:2 1.8 11.84 7.29
82:3 1.88 14.34 9.16
82:4 3.03 17.24 11.1
83:1 2.59 14.48 8.66
83:2 2.37 9.83 4.61
83:3 1.57 4.94 1.09
83:4 0.76 4.95 2.33
84:1 1.37 7 4.23
84:2 2.1 7.62 4.44
84:3 2.41 5.52 2.11
84:4 4.25 4.26 -1.13
85:1 5.13 3.84 -2.46
85:2 6.29 5.7 -2.01
85:3 7.19 7.11 -1.68
85:4 6.91 7.07 -1.55
86:1 7.02 6.55 -2.09
86:2 7.84 7.61 -1.86
86:3 7.53 7.94 -1.26
86:4 6.01 7.31 -0.47
87:1 4.48 6.49 0.13
87:2 1.73 3.93 0.3
87:3 0.41 2.42 0.1
87:4 0.02 1.54 -0.27
88:1 0.36 1.55 -0.56
88:2 0.99 1.57 -0.99
88:3 1.74 2.35 -0.97
88:4 2.57 3.03 -1.12
89:1 2.3 3.06 -0.88
89:2 2.41 3.19 -0.9
89:3 2.69 2.95 -1.36
89:4 1.6 2.87 -0.45
90:1 1.55 3.16 -0.13
90:2 0.81 3.49 0.76
90:3 0.95 4.19 1.3
90:4 -0.14 4.78 2.85
91:1 0.91 9.27 6.1
91:2 0.84 9.56 6.22
91:3 -0.07 8.74 6.08
91:4 0.17 7.65 4.88
92:1 -0.02 5.48 3.07
92:2 0.65 4.22 1.44
92:3 2.48 4.1 -0.22
92:4 2.29 3.23 -0.81
93:1 1.56 2.59 -0.63
93:2 1.79 2.92 -0.49
93:3 1.23 3 -0.05
93:4 1.12 3.01 -0.02
94:1 0.7 2.69 0.03
94:2 0.88 2.92 0.19
94:3 1.06 3.18 0.43
94:4 1.3 3.36 0.5
95:1 2.26 4.22 0.39
95:2 1.81 3.53 0.06
95:3 1.38 3.15 -0.03
95:4 1.06 2.7 -0.31
96:1 0.54 2.33 -0.14
96:2 1.08 2.99 -0.04
96:3 1.26 3.03 -0.05
96:4 1.25 3.01 0.18
97:1 1.69 3.36 0.14
97:2 2.14 3.75 0.14
97:3 2.1 3.72 0.15
97:4 1.79 3.55 0.25
98:1 1.53 3.46 0.45
98:2 1.02 2.91 0.36
98:3 1.31 3.05 0.21
98:4 2.17 3.97 0.17
99:1 3.46 4.69 -0.37
99:2 4.37 5.32 -0.53
99:3 3.58 4.8 -0.28
99:4 3.42 4.65 -0.29
00:1 2.6 3.98 -0.16
00:2 2.05 3.1 -0.47
00:3 1.07 2.29 -0.36
00:4 0.58 1.82 -0.22
01:1 0.32 2.22 0.2
01:2 1.02 4.04 1.1
01:3 2.74 8.33 3.54
01:4 5.51 14.1 6.32
02:1 7.06 16.38 7.03
02:2 4.96 12.91 5.69
02:3 3.96 9.33 3.34
02:4 2.2 6.49 2.31
03:1 1.82 5.45 1.76
03:2 2.06 5.63 1.66
03:3 2.25 5.32 1.14
03:4 2.27 4.07 0.03
04:1 2.32 3.08 -0.75
04:2 1.74 2.47 -0.6
04:3 0.79 2 -0.1
04:4 0.56 2.04 0.13
05:1 0.6 2.15 0.09
05:2 1.12 2.67 0.08
05:3 1.57 2.92 -0.04
05:4 1.43 2.97 0.12
06:1 1.74 3.57 0.39
06:2 1.43 3.08 0.17
06:3 0.95 2.54 0.12
06:4 0.62 2.08 -0.07
07:1 0.14 2.01 0.23
07:2 0.25 2.15 0.27
07:3 0.22 2.37 0.38
07:4 0.55 2.46 0.25
08:1 0.77 2.78 0.43
08:2 1.22 4.16 1.26
08:3 0.91 5.94 3.18
08:4 0.79 9.52 6.74
09:1 2.76 18.14 13.08
09:2 2.77 25.33 19.84
09:3 3.58 26.07 19.72
09:4 4.55 21.78 14.53
10:1 3.54 12.26 6.39
10:2 4.11 5.58 -0.22
10:3 3.31 3.26 -1.43
10:4 2.78 3.13 -0.87
11:1 1.76 3.17 0.2
11:2 2.98 4.89 0.59
11:3 2.06 3.82 0.28
11:4 1.74 3.38 0.11
12:1 2.04 3.7 0.1
12:2 0.83 2.65 0.36
12:3 0.37 1.72 0.07
12:4 -0.19 1.37 0.19
13:1 -0.33 1.12 0.06
13:2 0.03 1.53 -0.1
13:3 0.43 1.81 -0.32
13:4 -0.07 1.46 -0.12

Figure 2.3 - Variance in Cumulative Change in Industry Employment Shares over the Business Cycle

Quarters since peak Business cycle peak 2007:Q4 Business cycle peak 2001:Q1 Business cycle peak 1990:Q3 Business cycle peak 1981:Q3 Business cycle peak 1973:Q4
1 0.01 0.09 0.04 0.05 0.01
2 0.1 0.35 0.19 0.22 0.03
3 0.29 0.81 0.39 0.48 0.15
4 0.74 1.26 0.54 0.88 0.65
5 1.8 1.52 0.73 1.61 2.61
6 3.17 1.81 0.89 1.67 3.94
7 3.82 2.03 0.94 1.35 3.95
8 4.28 2.35 1.09 1.03 3.35
9 4.47 2.58 1.02 0.62 2.49
10 4.73 2.53 0.91 0.53 2.08
11 3.99 2.4 0.88 0.48 1.89
12 3.63 2.31 0.84 0.47 1.76
13 3.33 2.05 0.69 0.64 1.26
14 2.96 1.91 0.61 0.74 0.82
15 2.69 1.84 0.48 0.94 0.7
16 2.49 1.78 0.41 1 0.63
17 2.28 1.68 0.38 1.13 0.53
18 2.27 1.59 0.41 1.2 0.33
19 2.25 1.49 0.44 1.44 0.25
20 2.14 1.43 0.44 1.66 0.26
21 1.96 1.38 0.45 1.7 0.35
22 1.91 1.35 0.45 1.73 0.33
23 1.91 1.36 0.46 1.8 0.28
24   1.29 0.51 1.75 0.32

Figure 2.4 - Permanent Job Loss

  Stock of permanent job losers (percent of labor force) Rate of permanent job loss (percent of employment)
Jan 80 1.94 0.8
Feb 80 1.88 0.64
Mar 80 1.93 0.63
Apr 80 2.11 0.67
May 80 2.26 0.73
Jun 80 2.29 0.74
Jul 80 2.52 0.83
Aug 80 2.5 0.83
Sep 80 2.5 0.78
Oct 80 2.47 0.77
Nov 80 2.63 0.8
Dec 80 2.57 0.75
Jan 81 2.52 0.83
Feb 81 2.57 0.76
Mar 81 2.44 0.73
Apr 81 2.41 0.68
May 81 2.48 0.72
Jun 81 2.59 0.85
Jul 81 2.46 0.8
Aug 81 2.63 0.79
Sep 81 2.74 0.87
Oct 81 2.66 0.89
Nov 81 2.81 0.96
Dec 81 3.01 0.95
Jan 82 3.18 1.17
Feb 82 3.17 0.98
Mar 82 3.43 0.97
Apr 82 3.55 0.88
May 82 3.6 0.91
Jun 82 3.73 1.06
Jul 82 3.83 1.03
Aug 82 3.76 1.04
Sep 82 3.93 1.15
Oct 82 4.32 1.26
Nov 82 4.4 1.17
Dec 82 4.3 1.01
Jan 83 4.23 1.05
Feb 83 4.35 1
Mar 83 4.4 0.91
Apr 83 4.29 0.84
May 83 4.35 0.85
Jun 83 4.21 0.95
Jul 83 4 1.01
Aug 83 3.98 0.96
Sep 83 3.86 1.09
Oct 83 3.69 1.01
Nov 83 3.49 0.89
Dec 83 3.35 0.88
Jan 84 3.21 0.99
Feb 84 3.11 0.87
Mar 84 2.99 0.82
Apr 84 2.99 0.76
May 84 2.77 0.64
Jun 84 2.7 0.71
Jul 84 2.9 0.93
Aug 84 2.68 0.82
Sep 84 2.69 0.84
Oct 84 2.74 0.87
Nov 84 2.72 0.87
Dec 84 2.76 0.84
Jan 85 2.7 0.98
Feb 85 2.64 0.82
Mar 85 2.6 0.78
Apr 85 2.59 0.75
May 85 2.46 0.64
Jun 85 2.59 0.82
Jul 85 2.74 0.89
Aug 85 2.61 0.87
Sep 85 2.53 0.8
Oct 85 2.51 0.82
Nov 85 2.53 0.82
Dec 85 2.47 0.75
Jan 86 2.27 0.83
Feb 86 2.56 0.82
Mar 86 2.61 0.72
Apr 86 2.5 0.77
May 86 2.61 0.76
Jun 86 2.72 0.81
Jul 86 2.53 0.8
Aug 86 2.41 0.76
Sep 86 2.54 0.79
Oct 86 2.49 0.82
Nov 86 2.42 0.76
Dec 86 2.38 0.78
Jan 87 2.39 0.87
Feb 87 2.37 0.76
Mar 87 2.36 0.68
Apr 87 2.29 0.68
May 87 2.22 0.62
Jun 87 2.26 0.62
Jul 87 2.17 0.71
Aug 87 2.09 0.68
Sep 87 2.07 0.64
Oct 87 2.09 0.7
Nov 87 2 0.69
Dec 87 1.92 0.64
Jan 88 1.88 0.69
Feb 88 1.9 0.62
Mar 88 1.88 0.51
Apr 88 1.72 0.59
May 88 1.99 0.65
Jun 88 1.85 0.62
Jul 88 1.85 0.6
Aug 88 1.82 0.59
Sep 88 1.85 0.65
Oct 88 1.76 0.61
Nov 88 1.79 0.67
Dec 88 1.82 0.63
Jan 89 1.82 0.76
Feb 89 1.69 0.7
Mar 89 1.67 0.55
Apr 89 1.7 0.62
May 89 1.58 0.54
Jun 89 1.61 0.61
Jul 89 1.7 0.6
Aug 89 1.69 0.57
Sep 89 1.69 0.6
Oct 89 1.79 0.67
Nov 89 1.73 0.64
Dec 89 1.73 0.62
Jan 90 1.71 0.65
Feb 90 1.68 0.67
Mar 90 1.71 0.6
Apr 90 1.75 0.64
May 90 1.74 0.59
Jun 90 1.8 0.64
Jul 90 1.82 0.66
Aug 90 1.96 0.76
Sep 90 1.96 0.64
Oct 90 2.08 0.69
Nov 90 2.19 0.84
Dec 90 2.18 0.69
Jan 91 2.42 0.9
Feb 91 2.4 0.77
Mar 91 2.61 0.73
Apr 91 2.56 0.7
May 91 2.62 0.74
Jun 91 2.71 0.79
Jul 91 2.81 0.78
Aug 91 2.75 0.85
Sep 91 2.9 0.85
Oct 91 2.82 0.8
Nov 91 2.87 0.84
Dec 91 2.99 0.84
Jan 92 3 0.89
Feb 92 3.21 0.83
Mar 92 3.25 0.81
Apr 92 3.23 0.7
May 92 3.41 0.82
Jun 92 3.37 0.85
Jul 92 3.3 0.8
Aug 92 3.26 0.79
Sep 92 3.14 0.81
Oct 92 3.27 0.81
Nov 92 3.16 0.77
Dec 92 3.06 0.71
Jan 93 3.09 0.92
Feb 93 2.97 0.76
Mar 93 3 0.7
Apr 93 3.05 0.78
May 93 2.83 0.66
Jun 93 2.96 0.7
Jul 93 2.92 0.75
Aug 93 2.85 0.71
Sep 93 2.76 0.68
Oct 93 2.72 0.66
Nov 93 2.69 0.67
Dec 93 2.63 0.7
Jan 94 2.44 0.89
Feb 94 2.39 0.56
Mar 94 2.36 0.59
Apr 94 2.23 0.56
May 94 2.11 0.5
Jun 94 2.15 0.63
Jul 94 2.15 0.68
Aug 94 2.05 0.63
Sep 94 2.1 0.61
Oct 94 2.05 0.51
Nov 94 2.01 0.61
Dec 94 1.88 0.52
Jan 95 1.92 0.75
Feb 95 1.78 0.48
Mar 95 1.78 0.56
Apr 95 1.83 0.47
May 95 1.95 0.58
Jun 95 1.78 0.59
Jul 95 1.81 0.59
Aug 95 1.81 0.57
Sep 95 1.9 0.62
Oct 95 1.88 0.55
Nov 95 1.87 0.63
Dec 95 1.86 0.49
Jan 96 1.84 0.69
Feb 96 1.87 0.6
Mar 96 1.85 0.47
Apr 96 1.94 0.5
May 96 1.75 0.57
Jun 96 1.76 0.52
Jul 96 1.76 0.56
Aug 96 1.6 0.49
Sep 96 1.65 0.47
Oct 96 1.64 0.45
Nov 96 1.72 0.58
Dec 96 1.63 0.46
Jan 97 1.68 0.7
Feb 97 1.63 0.53
Mar 97 1.59 0.47
Apr 97 1.53 0.4
May 97 1.51 0.47
Jun 97 1.59 0.55
Jul 97 1.48 0.41
Aug 97 1.56 0.49
Sep 97 1.54 0.5
Oct 97 1.41 0.48
Nov 97 1.51 0.5
Dec 97 1.5 0.44
Jan 98 1.45 0.63
Feb 98 1.45 0.53
Mar 98 1.44 0.51
Apr 98 1.43 0.5
May 98 1.46 0.51
Jun 98 1.43 0.52
Jul 98 1.38 0.54
Aug 98 1.4 0.52
Sep 98 1.41 0.52
Oct 98 1.41 0.53
Nov 98 1.41 0.5
Dec 98 1.41 0.51
Jan 99 1.33 0.56
Feb 99 1.35 0.51
Mar 99 1.27 0.48
Apr 99 1.32 0.51
May 99 1.32 0.48
Jun 99 1.27 0.51
Jul 99 1.32 0.52
Aug 99 1.27 0.54
Sep 99 1.2 0.53
Oct 99 1.23 0.54
Nov 99 1.19 0.44
Dec 99 1.18 0.46
Jan 00 1.25 0.6
Feb 00 1.27 0.49
Mar 00 1.2 0.5
Apr 00 1.11 0.4
May 00 1.12 0.46
Jun 00 1.03 0.45
Jul 00 1.13 0.5
Aug 00 1.21 0.5
Sep 00 1.17 0.53
Oct 00 1.15 0.45
Nov 00 1.14 0.44
Dec 00 1.14 0.37
Jan 01 1.24 0.52
Feb 01 1.35 0.6
Mar 01 1.42 0.51
Apr 01 1.42 0.58
May 01 1.46 0.6
Jun 01 1.59 0.67
Jul 01 1.64 0.54
Aug 01 1.69 0.66
Sep 01 1.71 0.7
Oct 01 2.08 0.76
Nov 01 2.28 0.78
Dec 01 2.31 0.62
Jan 02 2.32 0.87
Feb 02 2.3 0.74
Mar 02 2.31 0.68
Apr 02 2.41 0.62
May 02 2.43 0.61
Jun 02 2.46 0.68
Jul 02 2.37 0.64
Aug 02 2.36 0.7
Sep 02 2.4 0.68
Oct 02 2.47 0.67
Nov 02 2.52 0.71
Dec 02 2.52 0.6
Jan 03 2.47 0.78
Feb 03 2.5 0.66
Mar 03 2.48 0.64
Apr 03 2.51 0.62
May 03 2.63 0.66
Jun 03 2.6 0.72
Jul 03 2.62 0.7
Aug 03 2.66 0.74
Sep 03 2.6 0.66
Oct 03 2.54 0.65
Nov 03 2.45 0.57
Dec 03 2.36 0.58
Jan 04 2.28 0.66
Feb 04 2.2 0.55
Mar 04 2.41 0.58
Apr 04 2.27 0.57
May 04 2.2 0.58
Jun 04 2.11 0.61
Jul 04 2.14 0.66
Aug 04 2.04 0.61
Sep 04 2.1 0.69
Oct 04 2.12 0.64
Nov 04 2.1 0.56
Dec 04 2.07 0.59
Jan 05 2.07 0.63
Feb 05 1.98 0.59
Mar 05 1.9 0.47
Apr 05 1.89 0.52
May 05 1.83 0.51
Jun 05 1.79 0.59
Jul 05 1.77 0.59
Aug 05 1.7 0.54
Sep 05 1.81 0.62
Oct 05 1.74 0.58
Nov 05 1.74 0.48
Dec 05 1.7 0.5
Jan 06 1.65 0.59
Feb 06 1.64 0.5
Mar 06 1.65 0.55
Apr 06 1.74 0.51
May 06 1.68 0.49
Jun 06 1.56 0.58
Jul 06 1.57 0.54
Aug 06 1.57 0.51
Sep 06 1.55 0.52
Oct 06 1.43 0.46
Nov 06 1.5 0.46
Dec 06 1.49 0.57
Jan 07 1.56 0.55
Feb 07 1.54 0.54
Mar 07 1.51 0.45
Apr 07 1.54 0.42
May 07 1.57 0.45
Jun 07 1.63 0.53
Jul 07 1.73 0.52
Aug 07 1.74 0.57
Sep 07 1.74 0.54
Oct 07 1.74 0.52
Nov 07 1.75 0.51
Dec 07 1.89 0.58
Jan 08 1.81 0.6
Feb 08 1.89 0.61
Mar 08 1.98 0.62
Apr 08 1.92 0.48
May 08 2.06 0.68
Jun 08 2.14 0.61
Jul 08 2.24 0.61
Aug 08 2.39 0.73
Sep 08 2.53 0.67
Oct 08 2.83 0.79
Nov 08 3.11 0.88
Dec 08 3.33 0.83
Jan 09 3.86 1.31
Feb 09 4.25 1.01
Mar 09 4.49 0.94
Apr 09 4.71 0.87
May 09 4.93 0.89
Jun 09 5.05 0.89
Jul 09 5.01 0.87
Aug 09 5.17 0.82
Sep 09 5.24 0.81
Oct 09 5.37 0.88
Nov 09 5.34 0.74
Dec 09 5.29 0.84
Jan 10 5.14 0.88
Feb 10 5.23 0.73
Mar 10 5.14 0.65
Apr 10 5.19 0.66
May 10 5.04 0.63
Jun 10 5 0.72
Jul 10 5.07 0.82
Aug 10 4.99 0.71
Sep 10 5.06 0.84
Oct 10 4.95 0.7
Nov 10 5.21 0.79
Dec 10 4.84 0.66
Jan 11 4.75 0.9
Feb 11 4.64 0.59
Mar 11 4.62 0.59
Apr 11 4.57 0.57
May 11 4.57 0.63
Jun 11 4.53 0.79
Jul 11 4.5 0.68
Aug 11 4.46 0.66
Sep 11 4.41 0.76
Oct 11 4.31 0.67
Nov 11 4.18 0.55
Dec 11 4.08 0.65
Jan 12 3.9 0.69
Feb 12 3.91 0.6
Mar 12 3.81 0.56
Apr 12 3.74 0.55
May 12 3.77 0.59
Jun 12 3.75 0.66
Jul 12 3.66 0.66
Aug 12 3.7 0.69
Sep 12 3.44 0.66
Oct 12 3.51 0.59
Nov 12 3.44 0.55
Dec 12 3.42 0.69
Jan 13 3.52 0.74
Feb 13 3.5 0.66
Mar 13 3.37 0.46
Apr 13 3.38 0.49
May 13 3.31 0.59
Jun 13 3.16 0.55
Jul 13 3.02 0.56
Aug 13 3.16 0.68
Sep 13 3.06 0.62
Oct 13 3.05 0.62
Nov 13    
Dec 13    

Figure 2.5 - Beveridge Curve

  Job openings rate (percent) Unemployment rate (percent)
01:1 3.4 4.2
01:2 3.12 4.4
01:3 2.87 4.8
01:4 2.47 5.5
02:1 2.43 5.7
02:2 2.33 5.8
02:3 2.32 5.7
02:4 2.33 5.8
03:1 2.29 5.9
03:2 2.14 6.2
03:3 2.13 6.1
03:4 2.2 5.8
04:1 2.3 5.7
04:2 2.39 5.6
04:3 2.53 5.4
04:4 2.48 5.4
05:1 2.54 5.3
05:2 2.68 5.1
05:3 2.79 5
05:4 2.87 5
06:1 2.89 4.7
06:2 2.92 4.7
06:3 2.89 4.6
06:4 3 4.5
07:1 3 4.5
07:2 2.98 4.5
07:3 2.92 4.7
07:4 2.8 4.8
08:1 2.65 5
08:2 2.52 5.3
08:3 2.3 6
08:4 2.06 6.9
09:1 1.77 8.3
09:2 1.53 9.3
09:3 1.5 9.6
09:4 1.57 9.9
10:1 1.72 9.8
10:2 1.87 9.6
10:3 1.86 9.5
10:4 1.95 9.5
11:1 1.95 9
11:2 1.99 9.1
11:3 2.15 9
11:4 2.12 8.7
12:1 2.33 8.2
12:2 2.39 8.2
12:3 2.31 8
12:4 2.37 7.8
13:1 2.44 7.7
13:2 2.48 7.5
13:3 2.47 7.35

Figure 2.6 - Barnichon-Figura Estimate of Matching Efficiency

  Mismatch (percentage points)
80:1 0.06
80:2 -0.39
80:3 0
80:4 0.12
81:1 0.17
81:2 0.12
81:3 0.34
81:4 -0.26
82:1 -0.03
82:2 0.08
82:3 -0.07
82:4 0.27
83:1 0.65
83:2 0.39
83:3 0.48
83:4 0.74
84:1 0.39
84:2 0.55
84:3 0.43
84:4 0.66
85:1 0.08
85:2 0.32
85:3 0.42
85:4 0.59
86:1 0.11
86:2 0.36
86:3 0.54
86:4 0.23
87:1 0.24
87:2 0.33
87:3 0.3
87:4 0.19
88:1 0.41
88:2 -0.07
88:3 -0.05
88:4 0.44
89:1 -0.02
89:2 -0.15
89:3 -0.2
89:4 -0.32
90:1 -0.44
90:2 -0.04
90:3 0.09
90:4 -0.19
91:1 -0.26
91:2 -0.34
91:3 -0.29
91:4 0.01
92:1 -0.09
92:2 0.05
92:3 0.1
92:4 -0.02
93:1 0.22
93:2 0.06
93:3 0.19
93:4 0.03
94:1 -0.03
94:2 -0.02
94:3 -0.21
94:4 -0.14
95:1 -0.23
95:2 -0.16
95:3 -0.23
95:4 0.04
96:1 -0.06
96:2 0.04
96:3 -0.24
96:4 -0.04
97:1 -0.28
97:2 -0.22
97:3 0.02
97:4 -0.19
98:1 -0.08
98:2 -0.21
98:3 -0.26
98:4 -0.2
99:1 -0.27
99:2 -0.04
99:3 -0.32
99:4 -0.48
00:1 -0.37
00:2 -0.24
00:3 -0.41
00:4 -0.21
01:1 -0.34
01:2 -0.66
01:3 -0.6
01:4 -0.57
02:1 -0.54
02:2 -0.01
02:3 -0.29
02:4 0
03:1 0.07
03:2 -0.08
03:3 0.12
03:4 -0.08
04:1 0.21
04:2 -0.04
04:3 -0.14
04:4 -0.26
05:1 0.14
05:2 0.17
05:3 0.2
05:4 0.28
06:1 0.3
06:2 -0.04
06:3 -0.26
06:4 -0.11
07:1 -0.22
07:2 0.24
07:3 0.06
07:4 0.06
08:1 0.09
08:2 0.07
08:3 0.26
08:4 0.73
09:1 0.77
09:2 0.78
09:3 0.94
09:4 1.45
10:1 1.19
10:2 1.12
10:3 1.38
10:4 1.34
11:1 1.6
11:2 1.61
11:3 1.49
11:4 1.26
12:1 1.34
12:2 1.54
12:3 1.45
12:4 1.6
13:1 1.55
13:2 1.2
13:3 1.28
13:4 1.85

Figure 2.7 - Long-Term Unemployment

  Long-term unemployed (percent of labor force)
80:1 0.52
80:2 0.68
80:3 0.87
80:4 1.04
81:1 1.15
81:2 1.04
81:3 1.03
81:4 1.05
82:1 1.16
82:2 1.48
82:3 1.72
82:4 2.15
83:1 2.45
83:2 2.5
83:3 2.25
83:4 1.93
84:1 1.68
84:2 1.48
84:3 1.33
84:4 1.24
85:1 1.16
85:2 1.13
85:3 1.07
85:4 1.06
86:1 0.98
86:2 1.03
86:3 1.03
86:4 0.99
87:1 0.94
87:2 0.91
87:3 0.84
87:4 0.77
88:1 0.72
88:2 0.68
88:3 0.66
88:4 0.6
89:1 0.55
89:2 0.53
89:3 0.48
89:4 0.52
90:1 0.51
90:2 0.51
90:3 0.58
90:4 0.65
91:1 0.72
91:2 0.83
91:3 0.91
91:4 1.08
92:1 1.33
92:2 1.53
92:3 1.64
92:4 1.62
93:1 1.47
93:2 1.34
93:3 1.36
93:4 1.39
94:1 1.35
94:2 1.28
94:3 1.19
94:4 1.12
95:1 0.99
95:2 1
95:3 0.94
95:4 0.93
96:1 0.94
96:2 1.02
96:3 0.95
96:4 0.86
97:1 0.83
97:2 0.79
97:3 0.79
97:4 0.72
98:1 0.7
98:2 0.61
98:3 0.62
98:4 0.61
99:1 0.53
99:2 0.53
99:3 0.51
99:4 0.5
00:1 0.47
00:2 0.44
00:3 0.48
00:4 0.43
01:1 0.48
01:2 0.48
01:3 0.55
01:4 0.73
02:1 0.87
02:2 1.08
02:3 1.09
02:4 1.22
03:1 1.24
03:2 1.35
03:3 1.36
03:4 1.34
04:1 1.31
04:2 1.23
04:3 1.13
04:4 1.15
05:1 1.11
05:2 1.01
05:3 0.94
05:4 0.92
06:1 0.85
06:2 0.84
06:3 0.85
06:4 0.72
07:1 0.79
07:2 0.76
07:3 0.83
07:4 0.87
08:1 0.88
08:2 0.98
08:3 1.2
08:4 1.53
09:1 1.94
09:2 2.6
09:3 3.34
09:4 3.84
10:1 4.15
10:2 4.32
10:3 4.09
10:4 4.12
11:1 4
11:2 3.95
11:3 4
11:4 3.71
12:1 3.5
12:2 3.39
12:3 3.24
12:4 3.12
13:1 3.03
13:2 2.79
13:3 2.72
13:4  

Figure 2.8 - Job Finding Rates by Unemployment Duration

  1-26 weeks 27-52 weeks 53+ weeks
Jan 07 31.32 18.17 11.94
Feb 07 32.08 18.5 13
Mar 07 32.45 18.91 12.35
Apr 07 30.94 18.55 13
May 07 30.04 18.31 13.21
Jun 07 29.15 17.3 12.22
Jul 07 30.06 16.79 12.11
Aug 07 30.05 16.75 12.06
Sep 07 29.15 16.92 10.96
Oct 07 29.43 17.87 9.62
Nov 07 28.58 18.71 8.85
Dec 07 29.29 17.81 10.7
Jan 08 28.76 17.35 11.98
Feb 08 29.14 18.08 11.66
Mar 08 28.8 18.78 11.84
Apr 08 28.34 16.95 13.81
May 08 28.7 14.84 14.72
Jun 08 27.74 12.78 14.6
Jul 08 27.33 12.01 13.03
Aug 08 26.05 11.54 10.36
Sep 08 25.89 12.39 9.56
Oct 08 26.74 12.93 8.49
Nov 08 25.46 13.17 10.92
Dec 08 24.53 13.07 9.52
Jan 09 22.67 12.55 9.68
Feb 09 21.72 11.53 8.95
Mar 09 21.05 10.26 8.77
Apr 09 20.77 10.08 8.04
May 09 20.28 10.32 7.08
Jun 09 20.07 11.05 7.8
Jul 09 20.19 11.15 8.44
Aug 09 20.23 10.88 8.39
Sep 09 20.45 9.69 8.48
Oct 09 19.91 9.74 7.81
Nov 09 20.38 10.16 8.33
Dec 09 20.3 10.6 8.48
Jan 10 20.64 10.36 7.94
Feb 10 20.62 10.08 7.97
Mar 10 21.44 10.34 7.98
Apr 10 22.25 11.46 8.6
May 10 22.8 12.24 8.86
Jun 10 22.29 11.92 8.86
Jul 10 22.17 11.95 9.81
Aug 10 21.58 11.74 9.18
Sep 10 21.41 13.23 9.3
Oct 10 20.61 12.62 7.89
Nov 10 21.06 12.39 8.44
Dec 10 21.93 12.09 8.33
Jan 11 22.08 11.86 8.75
Feb 11 21.84 11.9 7.66
Mar 11 21.38 11.65 7.98
Apr 11 21.49 13.7 8.13
May 11 21.72 12.71 9.15
Jun 11 22.77 12.92 9.35
Jul 11 22.75 10.93 8.6
Aug 11 22.74 11.69 8.79
Sep 11 22.11 11.43 7.96
Oct 11 22.24 11.82 8.91
Nov 11 22.66 12.79 8.18
Dec 11 22.96 13.8 9.07
Jan 12 23.36 14.15 9.44
Feb 12 23.87 14.19 10.19
Mar 12 23.67 13.64 10.05
Apr 12 23.27 13.05 8.74
May 12 22.85 12.1 8.34
Jun 12 23.25 11.49 8.19
Jul 12 23.18 11.98 8.44
Aug 12 23.61 11.85 8.73
Sep 12 23.46 11.45 8.03
Oct 12 23.85 11.28 8.44
Nov 12 22.57 12.06 8.41
Dec 12 22.12 12.78 9.31
Jan 13 22.04 13.55 9.78
Feb 13 23.1 13.37 9.93
Mar 13 23.46 12.23 9.64
Apr 13 23.66 11.31 9.13
May 13 24.42 12.14 8.97
Jun 13 24.11 14.41 8.9
Jul 13 24.33 13.99 8.54
Aug 13 23.98 14.29 8.62
Sep 13 23.48 13.55 9.6
Oct 13      
Nov 13      
Dec 13      

Figure 2.9 - Labor Force Exit by Unemployment Duration

  1-26 weeks 27-52 weeks 53+ weeks
Jan 07 23.49 28.11 30.55
Feb 07 24.54 29.44 31.1
Mar 07 24.5 28.94 31.2
Apr 07 24.18 29.47 28.45
May 07 23.24 28.36 30.01
Jun 07 23.2 29.7 30.61
Jul 07 23.1 29.54 28.84
Aug 07 23.2 28.19 27.06
Sep 07 22.83 27.15 28.7
Oct 07 22.49 27.22 31.1
Nov 07 23.08 26.01 31.38
Dec 07 22.31 26.08 31.05
Jan 08 22.47 25.39 31.01
Feb 08 22.71 25.27 30.03
Mar 08 23.43 25.51 28.94
Apr 08 24.5 26.95 29.35
May 08 23.49 27.54 30.26
Jun 08 23.46 25.84 28.45
Jul 08 21.48 25.84 24.62
Aug 08 21.41 25.07 22.98
Sep 08 21.24 26.44 25.93
Oct 08 21.73 25.16 27.33
Nov 08 21.67 24.78 27.7
Dec 08 21.58 23.41 25.56
Jan 09 21.25 22.78 25.4
Feb 09 20.54 22.82 24.6
Mar 09 19.92 22.75 24.85
Apr 09 19.54 21.49 24.63
May 09 19.51 21.14 23.95
Jun 09 18.78 19.88 23.17
Jul 09 18.78 19.25 22.19
Aug 09 18.95 18.49 22.01
Sep 09 19.34 18.13 19.92
Oct 09 19.51 18.45 20.39
Nov 09 19.14 17.78 19.09
Dec 09 19.31 18.57 19.09
Jan 10 19.06 18.76 18.97
Feb 10 19.54 19.41 19.47
Mar 10 19.76 19.36 20.15
Apr 10 20.18 19.54 19.19
May 10 20.69 19.52 18.59
Jun 10 21.33 20.32 18.61
Jul 10 21.61 20.84 19
Aug 10 21.45 20.87 19.02
Sep 10 21.67 20.41 18.62
Oct 10 21.63 20.06 19
Nov 10 21.57 20.45 18.97
Dec 10 21.22 20.71 19.17
Jan 11 21.53 21.82 19.32
Feb 11 21.61 21.88 21.33
Mar 11 21.88 20.82 21.21
Apr 11 22.2 20.15 21.1
May 11 22.44 20.37 19.48
Jun 11 22.1 21.72 20.16
Jul 11 21.84 22.36 20.73
Aug 11 21.05 22.3 21.1
Sep 11 21.39 23.25 21.39
Oct 11 20.47 23.09 20.61
Nov 11 21.19 23.08 21.42
Dec 11 20.83 21.51 21.26
Jan 12 21.75 21.49 21.54
Feb 12 21.85 22.01 20.85
Mar 12 22.24 22.96 20.97
Apr 12 22.17 22.99 22.15
May 12 22.35 22.01 23
Jun 12 22.73 21.68 22.42
Jul 12 22.85 20.82 22.28
Aug 12 23.08 21.55 22.97
Sep 12 22.8 21.65 24.69
Oct 12 23.05 23.17 24.91
Nov 12 23.47 24.23 23.99
Dec 12 23.78 24.28 23.98
Jan 13 22.94 23.04 23.91
Feb 13 22.55 22.17 24.71
Mar 13 22.32 22.75 25.1
Apr 13 22.41 24.65 24.94
May 13 21.7 24.24 24.42
Jun 13 21.2 22.89 23.46
Jul 13 21.66 21.27 24.03
Aug 13 22.2 21.71 24.91
Sep 13 22.32 22.37 24.85
Oct 13      
Nov 13      
Dec 13      

Figure 2.10 - Disability Insurance (SSDI) Recipiency

  SSDI Recipiency (Percent of population 16 years and over)
1995 2.1
1996 2.18
1997 2.22
1998 2.29
1999 2.34
2000 2.37
2001 2.45
2002 2.55
2003 2.65
2004 2.78
2005 2.89
2006 2.98
2007 3.06
2008 3.18
2009 3.3
2010 3.45
2011 3.58
2012 3.63
2013  

Figure 3.1a - Startups and Young Business Employment (New Establishments)

  No. of estabs. (Thousands) Share of all estabs. (Percent of all Establishments)
1977 614.71 14.8
1978 508.61 12.04
1979 503.61 11.51
1980 456.17 10.37
1981 456.35 10.51
1982 462.12 10.34
1983 439.03 9.63
1984 507.51 10.75
1985 514.87 10.56
1986 527.73 10.53
1987 558.51 10.81
1988 496.56 9.51
1989 480.29 9.1
1990 485.24 8.97
1991 477.38 8.64
1992 473.6 8.49
1993 477.67 8.48
1994 501.38 8.75
1995 517.05 8.85
1996 519.35 8.75
1997 527.98 8.74
1998 519.95 8.51
1999 501.45 8.12
2000 486.98 7.83
2001 476.98 7.51
2002 510.84 7.98
2003 510.52 7.9
2004 529.33 8.09
2005 555.63 8.32
2006 573.88 8.46
2007 533.03 7.74
2008 496.33 7.23
2009 413.73 6.2
2010 396.23 6.01
2011 413.97 6.28

Figure 3.1b Startups and Young Business Employment (Employment at Startups and Young Businesses)

  Age 1-2 (Percent) Age 0 (Percent)
1979 12.56 3.87
1980 10.08 3.35
1981 10.52 4.03
1982 10.96 4.1
1983 11.04 3.44
1984 10.75 3.62
1985 10.69 3.64
1986 11.16 3.77
1987 11.91 4.19
1988 11.53 3.53
1989 10.96 3.28
1990 9.68 3.16
1991 9.06 2.99
1992 8.75 3.08
1993 8.63 2.84
1994 8.65 3.08
1995 8.58 3.02
1996 8.61 2.98
1997 8.44 2.96
1998 8.69 3.23
1999 8.71 2.94
2000 8.81 2.75
2001 8.13 2.6
2002 7.91 2.97
2003 7.86 2.81
2004 7.91 2.77
2005 7.81 2.95
2006 8.03 2.99
2007 7.73 2.56
2008 7.09 2.38
2009 6.29 2.13
2010 6.06 2.19
2011 5.96 2.25

Figure 4.1 Assumed Relationship Between the Level of Slack and the Relative Strength of Hysteresis Effects

Unemployment Gap Relative Strength of Hysteresis Effects
-2.0000 0.0000
-1.7500 0.0000
-1.5000 0.0000
-1.2500 0.0000
-1.0000 0.0000
-0.7500 0.0000
-0.5000 0.0002
-0.2500 0.0006
0.0000 0.0019
0.2500 0.0067
0.5000 0.0230
0.7500 0.0759
1.0000 0.2227
1.2500 0.5000
1.5000 0.7773
1.7500 0.9241
2.0000 0.9770
2.2500 0.9933
2.5000 0.9981
2.7500 0.9994
3.0000 0.9998
3.2500 1.0000
3.5000 1.0000
3.7500 1.0000
4.0000 1.0000
4.2500 1.0000
4.5000 1.0000
4.7500 1.0000
5.0000 1.0000
5.2500 1.0000
5.5000 1.0000
5.7500 1.0000
6.0000 1.0000

Figure 4.2. Financial Crisis Scenario Under the Inertial Policy Rule (deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year: Simulation Quarter Output Gap Inflation Federal Funds Rate Real GDP Potential GDP Capital Services Unemployment Rate Natural Rate of Unemployment Actual Labor Force Participation Rate Trend Labor Force Participation Rate
1:1 -0.82 -0.28 -0.18 -0.90 -0.09 -0.03 0.11 0.05 -0.05 0.00
1:2 -1.85 -0.59 -0.54 -2.02 -0.19 -0.14 0.35 0.10 -0.13 -0.00
1:3 -3.02 -0.93 -1.09 -3.28 -0.31 -0.34 0.72 0.14 -0.25 -0.00
1:4 -3.99 -1.31 -1.78 -4.34 -0.45 -0.64 1.17 0.19 -0.39 -0.00
2:1 -4.81 -1.42 -2.51 -5.28 -0.62 -1.02 1.66 0.24 -0.51 -0.01
2:2 -5.40 -1.53 -3.25 -6.06 -0.86 -1.46 2.13 0.30 -0.63 -0.05
2:3 -5.81 -1.60 -3.96 -6.73 -1.15 -1.96 2.56 0.36 -0.76 -0.12
2:4 -6.10 -1.63 -4.47 -7.29 -1.46 -2.49 2.92 0.42 -0.90 -0.20
3:1 -6.22 -1.65 -4.47 -7.71 -1.79 -3.03 3.19 0.47 -1.02 -0.29
3:2 -6.17 -1.65 -4.47 -7.97 -2.11 -3.57 3.38 0.52 -1.14 -0.39
3:3 -5.97 -1.65 -4.47 -8.08 -2.42 -4.10 3.48 0.55 -1.24 -0.49
3:4 -5.65 -1.64 -4.47 -8.08 -2.73 -4.60 3.49 0.59 -1.33 -0.58
4:1 -5.26 -1.62 -4.47 -7.98 -3.01 -5.06 3.43 0.62 -1.41 -0.68
4:2 -4.81 -1.60 -4.47 -7.82 -3.28 -5.47 3.31 0.65 -1.47 -0.76
4:3 -4.33 -1.58 -4.47 -7.60 -3.51 -5.82 3.14 0.68 -1.52 -0.84
4:4 -3.85 -1.54 -4.47 -7.35 -3.71 -6.12 2.94 0.70 -1.55 -0.90
5:1 -3.38 -1.50 -4.47 -7.07 -3.87 -6.35 2.71 0.72 -1.56 -0.95
5:2 -2.93 -1.45 -4.47 -6.77 -4.00 -6.53 2.47 0.73 -1.56 -0.99
5:3 -2.51 -1.39 -4.47 -6.46 -4.08 -6.66 2.23 0.73 -1.54 -1.02
5:4 -2.13 -1.34 -4.39 -6.14 -4.12 -6.73 1.99 0.73 -1.51 -1.02
6:1 -1.82 -1.27 -4.27 -5.82 -4.09 -6.75 1.76 0.71 -1.46 -1.01
6:2 -1.54 -1.20 -4.11 -5.49 -4.03 -6.73 1.55 0.69 -1.39 -0.98
6:3 -1.30 -1.13 -3.92 -5.18 -3.94 -6.68 1.36 0.66 -1.32 -0.94
6:4 -1.08 -1.06 -3.71 -4.89 -3.85 -6.60 1.20 0.64 -1.25 -0.91
7:1 -0.90 -0.99 -3.49 -4.62 -3.75 -6.50 1.05 0.61 -1.18 -0.87
7:2 -0.75 -0.92 -3.27 -4.38 -3.66 -6.38 0.93 0.59 -1.11 -0.84
7:3 -0.63 -0.86 -3.05 -4.17 -3.56 -6.25 0.83 0.56 -1.04 -0.80
7:4 -0.54 -0.79 -2.84 -3.98 -3.47 -6.11 0.74 0.54 -0.98 -0.77
8:1 -0.47 -0.73 -2.63 -3.82 -3.38 -5.98 0.67 0.52 -0.93 -0.74
8:2 -0.42 -0.68 -2.44 -3.69 -3.29 -5.84 0.62 0.50 -0.87 -0.71
8:3 -0.38 -0.63 -2.26 -3.57 -3.20 -5.71 0.58 0.48 -0.83 -0.68
8:4 -0.37 -0.58 -2.10 -3.48 -3.12 -5.58 0.55 0.46 -0.79 -0.66
9:1 -0.36 -0.54 -1.95 -3.40 -3.04 -5.46 0.53 0.44 -0.75 -0.63
9:2 -0.37 -0.50 -1.81 -3.33 -2.97 -5.35 0.52 0.42 -0.71 -0.60
9:3 -0.38 -0.47 -1.69 -3.27 -2.90 -5.24 0.52 0.41 -0.68 -0.58
9:4 -0.40 -0.44 -1.59 -3.22 -2.83 -5.15 0.52 0.39 -0.65 -0.56
10:1 -0.42 -0.42 -1.50 -3.17 -2.77 -5.06 0.52 0.37 -0.63 -0.53
10:2 -0.44 -0.40 -1.42 -3.13 -2.71 -4.97 0.52 0.36 -0.60 -0.51
10:3 -0.46 -0.39 -1.35 -3.09 -2.65 -4.90 0.53 0.35 -0.58 -0.49
10:4 -0.48 -0.37 -1.30 -3.06 -2.59 -4.82 0.54 0.33 -0.56 -0.47
11:1 -0.48 -0.36 -1.25 -3.01 -2.54 -4.75 0.54 0.32 -0.54 -0.45
11:2 -0.48 -0.35 -1.20 -2.95 -2.49 -4.68 0.54 0.31 -0.52 -0.44
11:3 -0.46 -0.35 -1.16 -2.89 -2.44 -4.62 0.53 0.29 -0.51 -0.42
11:4 -0.45 -0.34 -1.12 -2.83 -2.39 -4.55 0.52 0.28 -0.49 -0.40
12:1 -0.44 -0.34 -1.09 -2.76 -2.33 -4.49 0.51 0.27 -0.47 -0.39
12:2 -0.43 -0.33 -1.06 -2.69 -2.27 -4.42 0.50 0.26 -0.45 -0.37
12:3 -0.42 -0.33 -1.03 -2.62 -2.21 -4.36 0.49 0.25 -0.44 -0.36
12:4 -0.40 -0.33 -1.00 -2.55 -2.16 -4.29 0.47 0.24 -0.42 -0.34
13:1 -0.39 -0.33 -0.97 -2.48 -2.10 -4.22 0.45 0.23 -0.40 -0.33
13:2 -0.37 -0.32 -0.95 -2.41 -2.04 -4.15 0.44 0.22 -0.39 -0.31
13:3 -0.36 -0.32 -0.92 -2.34 -1.99 -4.08 0.42 0.21 -0.37 -0.30
13:4 -0.34 -0.31 -0.90 -2.27 -1.94 -4.00 0.41 0.20 -0.36 -0.29
14:1 -0.33 -0.31 -0.88 -2.20 -1.88 -3.93 0.39 0.20 -0.34 -0.28
14:2 -0.31 -0.30 -0.85 -2.14 -1.83 -3.86 0.37 0.19 -0.33 -0.27
14:3 -0.30 -0.30 -0.83 -2.07 -1.78 -3.78 0.36 0.18 -0.32 -0.26
14:4 -0.28 -0.29 -0.81 -2.01 -1.73 -3.71 0.34 0.17 -0.30 -0.25
15:1 -0.27 -0.28 -0.78 -1.94 -1.68 -3.64 0.33 0.17 -0.29 -0.24
15:2 -0.25 -0.27 -0.76 -1.88 -1.63 -3.56 0.31 0.16 -0.28 -0.23
15:3 -0.24 -0.27 -0.73 -1.82 -1.58 -3.49 0.30 0.15 -0.27 -0.22
15:4 -0.23 -0.26 -0.71 -1.76 -1.54 -3.42 0.29 0.15 -0.26 -0.21

Figure 4.3. Macroeconomic Effects of the Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal Control (OC) Policy Without and With Recognition of Supply-Side Damage and Policy Feedback Effects on Supply-Side Conditions (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year: Simulation Quarter Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Real Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Real GDP Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Real GDP Under the Inertial Policy Rule Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Unemployment Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Labor Force Participation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Inflation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule
1:1 -1.36 -1.29 -1.30 -1.25 -1.21 -1.86 -0.18 -1.33 -1.26 -1.27 -1.19 -1.17 -1.90 0.11 -0.90 -0.91 -0.91 -0.91 -0.91 -0.92 -0.90 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.04 -0.02 -0.03 -0.06 -0.04 0.04 -0.28
1:2 -2.63 -2.49 -2.50 -2.41 -2.35 -3.38 -0.54 -2.50 -2.40 -2.38 -2.24 -2.22 -3.42 0.05 -1.67 -1.76 -1.75 -1.77 -1.75 -1.65 -2.02 0.22 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.35 -0.14 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.09 -0.11 -0.17 -0.13 0.03 -0.59
1:3 -3.69 -3.52 -3.49 -3.40 -3.34 -4.34 -1.09 -3.46 -3.34 -3.29 -3.11 -3.11 -4.36 -0.15 -2.48 -2.66 -2.64 -2.67 -2.64 -2.40 -3.28 0.44 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.56 0.50 0.72 -0.25 -0.24 -0.24 -0.24 -0.24 -0.24 -0.25 -0.23 -0.17 -0.20 -0.29 -0.23 0.02 -0.93
1:4 -4.42 -4.22 -4.18 -4.10 -4.06 -4.48 -1.78 -4.08 -3.96 -3.87 -3.67 -3.72 -4.48 -0.47 -3.07 -3.33 -3.31 -3.36 -3.31 -2.92 -4.34 0.69 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.85 0.73 1.17 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38 -0.37 -0.39 -0.34 -0.26 -0.30 -0.43 -0.34 -0.00 -1.31
2:1 -4.47 -4.26 -4.45 -4.41 -4.43 -4.49 -2.51 -4.05 -3.93 -4.08 -3.90 -4.02 -4.43 -1.09 -3.56 -3.90 -3.88 -3.95 -3.87 -3.37 -5.28 0.94 1.15 1.14 1.17 1.14 0.95 1.66 -0.48 -0.47 -0.48 -0.47 -0.47 -0.46 -0.51 -0.42 -0.33 -0.37 -0.51 -0.42 -0.06 -1.42
2:2 -4.48 -4.25 -4.47 -4.46 -4.46 -4.49 -3.25 -4.03 -3.90 -4.08 -3.92 -4.02 -4.43 -1.72 -3.96 -4.39 -4.37 -4.44 -4.34 -3.75 -6.06 1.17 1.43 1.43 1.46 1.42 1.17 2.13 -0.55 -0.55 -0.57 -0.55 -0.55 -0.53 -0.63 -0.45 -0.35 -0.40 -0.54 -0.44 -0.06 -1.53
2:3 -4.48 -4.23 -4.47 -4.47 -4.47 -4.49 -3.96 -4.03 -3.88 -4.07 -3.92 -4.02 -4.44 -2.36 -4.31 -4.82 -4.82 -4.88 -4.75 -4.09 -6.73 1.39 1.69 1.68 1.71 1.66 1.36 2.56 -0.62 -0.62 -0.67 -0.63 -0.62 -0.58 -0.76 -0.45 -0.35 -0.40 -0.56 -0.45 -0.05 -1.60
2:4 -4.48 -4.22 -4.48 -4.47 -4.47 -4.49 -4.47 -4.04 -3.89 -4.08 -3.92 -4.03 -4.47 -2.84 -4.62 -5.22 -5.25 -5.27 -5.13 -4.40 -7.29 1.58 1.91 1.90 1.94 1.87 1.52 2.92 -0.67 -0.70 -0.78 -0.70 -0.69 -0.63 -0.90 -0.44 -0.34 -0.39 -0.55 -0.44 -0.02 -1.63
3:1 -4.48 -4.19 -4.47 -4.47 -4.47 -4.49 -4.47 -4.05 -3.88 -4.10 -3.94 -4.05 -4.50 -2.83 -4.83 -5.51 -5.57 -5.57 -5.40 -4.61 -7.71 1.75 2.10 2.07 2.13 2.05 1.66 3.19 -0.70 -0.76 -0.87 -0.77 -0.75 -0.66 -1.02 -0.42 -0.31 -0.37 -0.53 -0.42 0.01 -1.65
3:2 -4.47 -4.17 -4.47 -4.47 -4.48 -4.49 -4.47 -4.08 -3.89 -4.13 -3.96 -4.08 -4.53 -2.82 -4.89 -5.67 -5.77 -5.73 -5.55 -4.69 -7.97 1.86 2.23 2.19 2.26 2.17 1.75 3.38 -0.71 -0.81 -0.96 -0.82 -0.80 -0.68 -1.14 -0.39 -0.28 -0.35 -0.51 -0.40 0.04 -1.65
3:3 -4.47 -4.14 -4.47 -4.47 -4.48 -4.49 -4.47 -4.11 -3.89 -4.15 -3.99 -4.11 -4.56 -2.83 -4.82 -5.69 -5.82 -5.75 -5.55 -4.63 -8.08 1.93 2.29 2.25 2.32 2.22 1.78 3.48 -0.71 -0.86 -1.05 -0.87 -0.85 -0.70 -1.24 -0.37 -0.26 -0.32 -0.49 -0.37 0.07 -1.65
3:4 -4.47 -4.12 -4.47 -4.47 -4.48 -4.49 -4.47 -4.13 -3.89 -4.18 -4.01 -4.13 -4.59 -2.84 -4.62 -5.60 -5.77 -5.67 -5.45 -4.47 -8.08 1.92 2.28 2.24 2.31 2.21 1.76 3.49 -0.71 -0.91 -1.12 -0.92 -0.89 -0.72 -1.33 -0.34 -0.23 -0.29 -0.47 -0.35 0.10 -1.64
4:1 -4.47 -4.09 -4.47 -4.47 -4.48 -4.49 -4.47 -4.16 -3.88 -4.20 -4.03 -4.15 -4.62 -2.85 -4.34 -5.41 -5.62 -5.48 -5.25 -4.21 -7.98 1.86 2.21 2.17 2.24 2.14 1.67 3.43 -0.69 -0.94 -1.19 -0.96 -0.92 -0.72 -1.41 -0.31 -0.20 -0.27 -0.44 -0.33 0.12 -1.62
4:2 -4.47 -4.06 -4.47 -4.47 -4.48 -4.49 -4.47 -4.19 -3.88 -4.22 -4.06 -4.17 -4.64 -2.87 -3.99 -5.15 -5.40 -5.23 -4.99 -3.89 -7.82 1.74 2.09 2.04 2.12 2.01 1.54 3.31 -0.66 -0.97 -1.25 -0.98 -0.94 -0.72 -1.47 -0.29 -0.18 -0.25 -0.42 -0.30 0.15 -1.60
4:3 -4.47 -4.04 -4.47 -4.47 -4.48 -4.49 -4.47 -4.22 -3.89 -4.25 -4.08 -4.20 -4.67 -2.90 -3.59 -4.84 -5.14 -4.93 -4.67 -3.51 -7.60 1.58 1.91 1.88 1.95 1.83 1.36 3.14 -0.63 -0.98 -1.29 -0.99 -0.94 -0.70 -1.52 -0.25 -0.14 -0.22 -0.39 -0.27 0.18 -1.58
4:4 -4.47 -4.02 -4.46 -4.47 -4.47 -4.49 -4.47 -4.25 -3.91 -4.28 -4.12 -4.24 -4.71 -2.93 -3.15 -4.48 -4.83 -4.58 -4.30 -3.09 -7.35 1.38 1.71 1.68 1.74 1.63 1.14 2.94 -0.58 -0.97 -1.31 -0.99 -0.93 -0.66 -1.55 -0.21 -0.11 -0.18 -0.36 -0.24 0.21 -1.54
5:1 -4.47 -4.00 -4.46 -4.47 -4.47 -4.49 -4.47 -4.29 -3.93 -4.31 -4.16 -4.27 -4.73 -2.98 -2.69 -4.09 -4.50 -4.20 -3.91 -2.65 -7.07 1.15 1.47 1.45 1.52 1.40 0.91 2.71 -0.54 -0.94 -1.33 -0.96 -0.90 -0.62 -1.56 -0.17 -0.07 -0.15 -0.32 -0.20 0.24 -1.50
5:2 -4.47 -4.00 -4.46 -4.47 -4.47 -4.49 -4.47 -4.34 -3.97 -4.35 -4.20 -4.30 -4.77 -3.02 -2.22 -3.66 -4.15 -3.79 -3.49 -2.19 -6.77 0.91 1.23 1.22 1.28 1.15 0.67 2.47 -0.48 -0.90 -1.32 -0.92 -0.85 -0.56 -1.56 -0.13 -0.03 -0.11 -0.28 -0.16 0.28 -1.45
5:3 -4.47 -4.00 -4.45 -4.47 -4.46 -4.49 -4.47 -4.38 -4.01 -4.38 -4.24 -4.34 -4.80 -3.07 -1.75 -3.23 -3.78 -3.37 -3.06 -1.73 -6.46 0.67 0.98 0.98 1.03 0.91 0.42 2.23 -0.43 -0.84 -1.31 -0.86 -0.79 -0.50 -1.54 -0.09 0.01 -0.07 -0.24 -0.12 0.31 -1.39
5:4 -4.46 -4.00 -4.45 -4.47 -4.46 -4.48 -4.39 -4.42 -4.05 -4.42 -4.28 -4.38 -4.83 -3.06 -1.29 -2.79 -3.41 -2.96 -2.63 -1.27 -6.14 0.43 0.73 0.75 0.79 0.67 0.18 1.99 -0.37 -0.77 -1.27 -0.80 -0.73 -0.44 -1.51 -0.04 0.05 -0.03 -0.19 -0.08 0.35 -1.34
6:1 -4.46 -4.01 -4.45 -4.47 -4.45 -4.48 -4.27 -4.47 -4.11 -4.45 -4.33 -4.42 -4.86 -3.00 -0.83 -2.35 -3.03 -2.54 -2.21 -0.83 -5.82 0.19 0.50 0.53 0.57 0.45 -0.05 1.76 -0.31 -0.70 -1.22 -0.73 -0.66 -0.38 -1.46 0.01 0.09 0.01 -0.15 -0.04 0.38 -1.27
6:2 -4.46 -4.03 -4.44 -4.47 -4.45 -4.48 -4.11 -4.51 -4.16 -4.49 -4.37 -4.45 -4.89 -2.90 -0.39 -1.91 -2.65 -2.14 -1.80 -0.39 -5.49 -0.04 0.27 0.32 0.36 0.23 -0.27 1.55 -0.25 -0.64 -1.16 -0.66 -0.59 -0.32 -1.39 0.05 0.13 0.04 -0.10 0.00 0.41 -1.20
6:3 -4.47 -4.06 -4.44 -4.47 -4.44 -4.47 -3.92 -4.57 -4.23 -4.52 -4.41 -4.49 -4.91 -2.78 0.03 -1.50 -2.27 -1.75 -1.41 0.02 -5.18 -0.25 0.07 0.14 0.16 0.04 -0.47 1.36 -0.19 -0.57 -1.09 -0.60 -0.53 -0.26 -1.32 0.10 0.17 0.08 -0.06 0.04 0.44 -1.13
6:4 -4.47 -4.08 -4.42 -4.47 -4.44 -4.47 -3.71 -4.61 -4.29 -4.54 -4.46 -4.52 -4.93 -2.65 0.43 -1.10 -1.91 -1.39 -1.05 0.41 -4.89 -0.45 -0.13 -0.03 -0.01 -0.14 -0.66 1.20 -0.14 -0.50 -1.02 -0.53 -0.47 -0.20 -1.25 0.14 0.21 0.12 -0.02 0.08 0.46 -1.06
7:1 -4.45 -4.09 -4.37 -4.47 -4.43 -4.47 -3.49 -4.63 -4.33 -4.52 -4.50 -4.55 -4.95 -2.50 0.79 -0.73 -1.58 -1.06 -0.71 0.77 -4.62 -0.62 -0.30 -0.17 -0.17 -0.30 -0.82 1.05 -0.09 -0.44 -0.95 -0.47 -0.41 -0.15 -1.18 0.19 0.24 0.15 0.02 0.12 0.49 -0.99
7:2 -4.45 -4.11 -4.25 -4.39 -4.41 -4.47 -3.27 -4.67 -4.38 -4.43 -4.45 -4.57 -4.97 -2.35 1.13 -0.38 -1.29 -0.76 -0.40 1.10 -4.38 -0.78 -0.46 -0.29 -0.31 -0.44 -0.96 0.93 -0.04 -0.38 -0.88 -0.42 -0.35 -0.10 -1.11 0.23 0.27 0.18 0.06 0.16 0.51 -0.92
7:3 -4.44 -4.13 -4.08 -4.24 -4.33 -4.46 -3.05 -4.71 -4.43 -4.29 -4.34 -4.52 -4.98 -2.20 1.43 -0.07 -1.02 -0.49 -0.13 1.39 -4.17 -0.92 -0.60 -0.39 -0.43 -0.56 -1.08 0.83 0.00 -0.33 -0.81 -0.36 -0.30 -0.05 -1.04 0.26 0.30 0.21 0.10 0.19 0.52 -0.86
7:4 -4.44 -4.15 -3.88 -4.06 -4.20 -4.46 -2.84 -4.73 -4.47 -4.11 -4.19 -4.42 -4.99 -2.04 1.70 0.21 -0.80 -0.26 0.11 1.65 -3.98 -1.03 -0.72 -0.47 -0.53 -0.66 -1.19 0.74 0.04 -0.28 -0.75 -0.32 -0.26 -0.01 -0.98 0.30 0.32 0.23 0.13 0.22 0.54 -0.79
8:1 -4.42 -4.16 -3.70 -3.87 -4.04 -4.44 -2.63 -4.75 -4.50 -3.95 -4.03 -4.28 -4.98 -1.90 1.93 0.46 -0.61 -0.08 0.31 1.88 -3.82 -1.12 -0.82 -0.53 -0.60 -0.74 -1.27 0.67 0.08 -0.23 -0.70 -0.27 -0.22 0.02 -0.93 0.32 0.34 0.25 0.16 0.24 0.54 -0.73
8:2 -4.31 -4.07 -3.50 -3.67 -3.84 -4.42 -2.44 -4.66 -4.43 -3.76 -3.86 -4.11 -4.97 -1.76 2.13 0.67 -0.46 0.08 0.47 2.06 -3.69 -1.20 -0.90 -0.56 -0.66 -0.79 -1.33 0.62 0.11 -0.19 -0.65 -0.24 -0.18 0.05 -0.87 0.35 0.36 0.27 0.19 0.27 0.55 -0.68
8:3 -4.17 -3.95 -3.29 -3.45 -3.65 -4.36 -2.26 -4.53 -4.32 -3.57 -3.67 -3.94 -4.91 -1.63 2.28 0.85 -0.35 0.19 0.59 2.21 -3.57 -1.25 -0.96 -0.58 -0.69 -0.83 -1.37 0.58 0.13 -0.16 -0.60 -0.21 -0.15 0.08 -0.83 0.37 0.37 0.28 0.21 0.29 0.55 -0.63
8:4 -3.98 -3.78 -3.10 -3.24 -3.45 -4.22 -2.10 -4.37 -4.17 -3.38 -3.47 -3.75 -4.77 -1.51 2.40 0.98 -0.26 0.27 0.68 2.32 -3.48 -1.28 -0.99 -0.58 -0.70 -0.84 -1.39 0.55 0.15 -0.13 -0.56 -0.18 -0.12 0.10 -0.79 0.38 0.38 0.28 0.23 0.30 0.55 -0.58
9:1 -3.78 -3.60 -2.91 -3.04 -3.24 -4.02 -1.95 -4.17 -3.99 -3.19 -3.28 -3.55 -4.56 -1.41 2.47 1.08 -0.21 0.32 0.73 2.39 -3.40 -1.28 -1.01 -0.57 -0.69 -0.84 -1.38 0.53 0.17 -0.10 -0.53 -0.16 -0.10 0.12 -0.75 0.39 0.39 0.29 0.25 0.31 0.54 -0.54
9:2 -3.57 -3.42 -2.74 -2.85 -3.03 -3.84 -1.81 -3.97 -3.80 -3.02 -3.10 -3.35 -4.37 -1.31 2.51 1.14 -0.17 0.35 0.76 2.43 -3.33 -1.27 -1.01 -0.54 -0.67 -0.82 -1.36 0.52 0.18 -0.08 -0.50 -0.14 -0.08 0.13 -0.71 0.40 0.39 0.28 0.26 0.32 0.53 -0.50
9:3 -3.37 -3.23 -2.59 -2.67 -2.84 -3.62 -1.69 -3.77 -3.61 -2.86 -2.93 -3.15 -4.14 -1.22 2.52 1.17 -0.16 0.36 0.76 2.43 -3.27 -1.24 -0.99 -0.50 -0.64 -0.78 -1.33 0.52 0.19 -0.06 -0.48 -0.12 -0.07 0.14 -0.68 0.40 0.39 0.28 0.26 0.32 0.52 -0.47
9:4 -3.16 -3.04 -2.45 -2.52 -2.66 -3.40 -1.59 -3.56 -3.42 -2.72 -2.78 -2.98 -3.90 -1.15 2.49 1.17 -0.15 0.34 0.74 2.39 -3.22 -1.19 -0.95 -0.45 -0.60 -0.73 -1.27 0.52 0.19 -0.05 -0.45 -0.11 -0.06 0.15 -0.65 0.40 0.38 0.27 0.26 0.32 0.50 -0.44
10:1 -2.96 -2.85 -2.34 -2.39 -2.51 -3.18 -1.50 -3.35 -3.22 -2.60 -2.65 -2.82 -3.66 -1.08 2.45 1.15 -0.17 0.32 0.71 2.34 -3.17 -1.13 -0.90 -0.39 -0.54 -0.68 -1.20 0.52 0.19 -0.04 -0.44 -0.11 -0.06 0.15 -0.63 0.39 0.37 0.26 0.26 0.31 0.48 -0.42
10:2 -2.78 -2.69 -2.25 -2.27 -2.37 -2.97 -1.42 -3.16 -3.04 -2.49 -2.52 -2.67 -3.43 -1.02 2.38 1.11 -0.18 0.29 0.66 2.25 -3.13 -1.06 -0.84 -0.33 -0.49 -0.61 -1.12 0.52 0.19 -0.03 -0.42 -0.10 -0.05 0.14 -0.60 0.38 0.35 0.24 0.25 0.30 0.46 -0.40
10:3 -2.61 -2.53 -2.16 -2.17 -2.25 -2.78 -1.35 -2.98 -2.87 -2.39 -2.41 -2.54 -3.21 -0.97 2.30 1.05 -0.21 0.24 0.61 2.16 -3.09 -0.98 -0.77 -0.27 -0.43 -0.54 -1.03 0.53 0.18 -0.03 -0.41 -0.10 -0.05 0.14 -0.58 0.37 0.34 0.23 0.25 0.29 0.44 -0.39
10:4 -2.46 -2.39 -2.09 -2.07 -2.15 -2.60 -1.30 -2.81 -2.71 -2.30 -2.31 -2.42 -3.01 -0.92 2.20 0.98 -0.24 0.20 0.55 2.05 -3.06 -0.89 -0.69 -0.21 -0.36 -0.47 -0.93 0.54 0.17 -0.03 -0.40 -0.10 -0.06 0.13 -0.56 0.35 0.32 0.21 0.24 0.28 0.41 -0.37
11:1 -2.33 -2.27 -2.03 -1.99 -2.06 -2.45 -1.25 -2.66 -2.56 -2.22 -2.22 -2.32 -2.83 -0.88 2.14 0.94 -0.23 0.19 0.52 1.97 -3.01 -0.80 -0.62 -0.16 -0.31 -0.41 -0.83 0.54 0.16 -0.03 -0.39 -0.10 -0.06 0.12 -0.54 0.33 0.30 0.20 0.22 0.26 0.38 -0.36
11:2 -2.22 -2.16 -1.97 -1.92 -1.98 -2.32 -1.20 -2.52 -2.43 -2.15 -2.13 -2.22 -2.68 -0.85 2.10 0.91 -0.21 0.19 0.51 1.91 -2.95 -0.73 -0.55 -0.12 -0.26 -0.35 -0.74 0.54 0.15 -0.04 -0.38 -0.10 -0.06 0.11 -0.52 0.31 0.27 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.35 -0.35
11:3 -2.11 -2.06 -1.92 -1.86 -1.91 -2.21 -1.16 -2.40 -2.31 -2.08 -2.05 -2.14 -2.54 -0.81 2.06 0.89 -0.19 0.19 0.51 1.86 -2.89 -0.66 -0.49 -0.08 -0.22 -0.31 -0.67 0.53 0.14 -0.04 -0.37 -0.11 -0.07 0.09 -0.51 0.29 0.25 0.16 0.20 0.23 0.32 -0.35
11:4 -2.02 -1.98 -1.87 -1.80 -1.85 -2.12 -1.12 -2.29 -2.21 -2.01 -1.98 -2.06 -2.42 -0.78 2.02 0.88 -0.15 0.21 0.51 1.81 -2.83 -0.60 -0.44 -0.06 -0.19 -0.27 -0.60 0.52 0.12 -0.05 -0.36 -0.11 -0.07 0.08 -0.49 0.27 0.23 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.30 -0.34
12:1 -1.95 -1.91 -1.83 -1.74 -1.80 -2.05 -1.09 -2.19 -2.11 -1.96 -1.91 -1.99 -2.31 -0.75 1.99 0.87 -0.11 0.23 0.52 1.78 -2.76 -0.54 -0.39 -0.04 -0.17 -0.24 -0.54 0.51 0.11 -0.05 -0.35 -0.11 -0.07 0.07 -0.47 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.17 0.19 0.27 -0.34
12:2 -1.88 -1.84 -1.79 -1.69 -1.75 -1.98 -1.06 -2.10 -2.03 -1.90 -1.85 -1.92 -2.22 -0.72 1.96 0.86 -0.07 0.25 0.54 1.75 -2.69 -0.50 -0.35 -0.03 -0.15 -0.21 -0.48 0.50 0.10 -0.05 -0.34 -0.11 -0.07 0.06 -0.45 0.22 0.18 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.24 -0.33
12:3 -1.82 -1.79 -1.74 -1.65 -1.70 -1.93 -1.03 -2.02 -1.95 -1.84 -1.79 -1.86 -2.14 -0.70 1.94 0.86 -0.02 0.28 0.56 1.73 -2.62 -0.46 -0.32 -0.02 -0.14 -0.19 -0.44 0.49 0.09 -0.06 -0.33 -0.10 -0.07 0.05 -0.44 0.20 0.16 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.22 -0.33
12:4 -1.76 -1.74 -1.70 -1.60 -1.66 -1.88 -1.00 -1.94 -1.88 -1.79 -1.73 -1.80 -2.07 -0.67 1.92 0.86 0.03 0.31 0.59 1.71 -2.55 -0.42 -0.28 -0.01 -0.12 -0.18 -0.40 0.47 0.09 -0.06 -0.32 -0.10 -0.07 0.04 -0.42 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.19 -0.33
13:1 -1.70 -1.69 -1.66 -1.55 -1.61 -1.83 -0.97 -1.87 -1.81 -1.74 -1.67 -1.74 -2.00 -0.65 1.90 0.87 0.07 0.34 0.61 1.70 -2.48 -0.39 -0.26 -0.01 -0.11 -0.16 -0.36 0.45 0.08 -0.06 -0.31 -0.10 -0.07 0.04 -0.40 0.16 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.13 0.17 -0.33
13:2 -1.65 -1.64 -1.62 -1.51 -1.57 -1.78 -0.95 -1.80 -1.74 -1.68 -1.61 -1.69 -1.93 -0.63 1.89 0.88 0.12 0.38 0.64 1.69 -2.41 -0.37 -0.23 -0.01 -0.11 -0.15 -0.33 0.44 0.07 -0.06 -0.30 -0.10 -0.07 0.03 -0.39 0.15 0.10 0.07 0.11 0.12 0.15 -0.32
13:3 -1.60 -1.60 -1.57 -1.46 -1.53 -1.73 -0.92 -1.73 -1.68 -1.63 -1.56 -1.63 -1.86 -0.61 1.87 0.89 0.17 0.41 0.66 1.69 -2.34 -0.34 -0.21 -0.01 -0.10 -0.15 -0.30 0.42 0.07 -0.06 -0.28 -0.09 -0.07 0.03 -0.37 0.13 0.08 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.13 -0.32
13:4 -1.55 -1.55 -1.53 -1.42 -1.48 -1.68 -0.90 -1.67 -1.62 -1.58 -1.51 -1.58 -1.80 -0.59 1.86 0.90 0.21 0.44 0.69 1.68 -2.27 -0.32 -0.19 -0.01 -0.10 -0.14 -0.28 0.41 0.06 -0.06 -0.27 -0.09 -0.07 0.02 -0.36 0.12 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.10 0.12 -0.31
14:1 -1.51 -1.51 -1.48 -1.37 -1.44 -1.64 -0.88 -1.61 -1.57 -1.53 -1.46 -1.53 -1.74 -0.57 1.85 0.91 0.26 0.47 0.72 1.68 -2.20 -0.30 -0.18 -0.01 -0.09 -0.13 -0.26 0.39 0.06 -0.06 -0.26 -0.09 -0.06 0.02 -0.34 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.11 -0.31
14:2 -1.46 -1.47 -1.44 -1.33 -1.40 -1.60 -0.85 -1.56 -1.52 -1.48 -1.41 -1.48 -1.69 -0.55 1.84 0.93 0.30 0.50 0.75 1.69 -2.14 -0.29 -0.17 -0.01 -0.09 -0.13 -0.24 0.37 0.06 -0.06 -0.25 -0.08 -0.06 0.02 -0.33 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 -0.30
14:3 -1.42 -1.43 -1.39 -1.29 -1.36 -1.55 -0.83 -1.50 -1.47 -1.44 -1.37 -1.44 -1.64 -0.53 1.84 0.94 0.35 0.54 0.77 1.69 -2.07 -0.27 -0.15 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.23 0.36 0.05 -0.06 -0.24 -0.08 -0.06 0.02 -0.32 0.09 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.09 -0.30
14:4 -1.37 -1.39 -1.35 -1.25 -1.31 -1.51 -0.81 -1.45 -1.42 -1.40 -1.32 -1.39 -1.59 -0.52 1.83 0.96 0.39 0.57 0.80 1.70 -2.01 -0.26 -0.15 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.22 0.34 0.05 -0.06 -0.23 -0.08 -0.06 0.01 -0.30 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.08 -0.29
15:1 -1.33 -1.35 -1.31 -1.21 -1.27 -1.46 -0.78 -1.41 -1.38 -1.35 -1.28 -1.35 -1.54 -0.50 1.82 0.98 0.43 0.60 0.83 1.70 -1.94 -0.25 -0.14 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.21 0.33 0.05 -0.05 -0.22 -0.07 -0.05 0.01 -0.29 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.08 -0.28
15:2 -1.28 -1.31 -1.26 -1.17 -1.23 -1.41 -0.76 -1.36 -1.33 -1.31 -1.24 -1.31 -1.48 -0.49 1.82 0.99 0.47 0.63 0.85 1.71 -1.88 -0.24 -0.13 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.20 0.31 0.04 -0.05 -0.21 -0.07 -0.05 0.01 -0.28 0.07 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.07 -0.27
15:3 -1.24 -1.27 -1.22 -1.13 -1.19 -1.36 -0.73 -1.31 -1.29 -1.27 -1.20 -1.26 -1.43 -0.47 1.81 1.01 0.50 0.66 0.88 1.72 -1.82 -0.23 -0.12 -0.03 -0.09 -0.11 -0.19 0.30 0.04 -0.05 -0.20 -0.06 -0.05 0.01 -0.27 0.07 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.07 -0.27
15:4 -1.20 -1.23 -1.18 -1.09 -1.15 -1.31 -0.71 -1.27 -1.25 -1.23 -1.17 -1.23 -1.38 -0.45 1.80 1.03 0.54 0.68 0.90 1.72 -1.76 -0.22 -0.12 -0.03 -0.09 -0.11 -0.18 0.29 0.04 -0.05 -0.19 -0.06 -0.05 0.01 -0.26 0.07 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.07 -0.26

Figure 4.4. Supply-Side Effects of the Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal Control (OC) Policy Without and With Recognition of Supply-Side Damage and Policy Feedback Effects on Supply-Side Conditions (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year: Simulation Quarter Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Natural Unemployment Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule Capital Services Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Capital Services Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Capital Services Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Capital Services Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Capital Services Under the Inertial Policy Rule Potential GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome Potential GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome Potential GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Potential GDP Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback Potential GDP Under the Inertial Policy Rule
1:1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.09
1:2 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.14 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.19
1:3 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.26 -0.26 -0.26 -0.23 -0.34 -0.29 -0.29 -0.29 -0.28 -0.31
1:4 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.46 -0.46 -0.45 -0.38 -0.64 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.38 -0.45
2:1 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.01 -0.69 -0.71 -0.69 -0.56 -1.02 -0.52 -0.53 -0.52 -0.49 -0.62
2:2 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.30 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.05 -0.96 -0.98 -0.95 -0.76 -1.46 -0.66 -0.66 -0.65 -0.60 -0.86
2:3 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.36 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.12 -1.26 -1.29 -1.24 -0.98 -1.96 -0.81 -0.82 -0.80 -0.71 -1.15
2:4 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.33 0.42 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.02 -0.20 -1.57 -1.61 -1.55 -1.21 -2.49 -0.98 -1.00 -0.97 -0.82 -1.46
3:1 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.34 0.47 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.04 -0.29 -1.91 -1.95 -1.88 -1.46 -3.03 -1.18 -1.20 -1.16 -0.94 -1.79
3:2 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.36 0.52 -0.17 -0.17 -0.16 -0.07 -0.39 -2.24 -2.29 -2.20 -1.70 -3.57 -1.38 -1.41 -1.35 -1.07 -2.11
3:3 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.36 0.55 -0.23 -0.24 -0.22 -0.10 -0.49 -2.57 -2.62 -2.52 -1.94 -4.10 -1.58 -1.61 -1.54 -1.19 -2.42
3:4 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.37 0.59 -0.29 -0.30 -0.27 -0.14 -0.58 -2.87 -2.93 -2.81 -2.15 -4.60 -1.77 -1.80 -1.73 -1.31 -2.73
4:1 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.37 0.62 -0.35 -0.36 -0.33 -0.17 -0.68 -3.14 -3.20 -3.06 -2.32 -5.06 -1.95 -1.98 -1.90 -1.42 -3.01
4:2 0.47 0.48 0.46 0.37 0.65 -0.40 -0.41 -0.38 -0.19 -0.76 -3.36 -3.43 -3.26 -2.45 -5.47 -2.10 -2.14 -2.04 -1.50 -3.28
4:3 0.48 0.49 0.47 0.36 0.68 -0.44 -0.45 -0.41 -0.20 -0.84 -3.52 -3.60 -3.42 -2.52 -5.82 -2.23 -2.27 -2.15 -1.55 -3.51
4:4 0.48 0.49 0.47 0.35 0.70 -0.46 -0.48 -0.43 -0.20 -0.90 -3.63 -3.72 -3.51 -2.53 -6.12 -2.30 -2.35 -2.22 -1.56 -3.71
5:1 0.47 0.48 0.46 0.34 0.72 -0.46 -0.48 -0.43 -0.20 -0.95 -3.68 -3.77 -3.55 -2.48 -6.35 -2.33 -2.38 -2.24 -1.55 -3.87
5:2 0.46 0.47 0.44 0.33 0.73 -0.45 -0.47 -0.42 -0.19 -0.99 -3.66 -3.77 -3.52 -2.37 -6.53 -2.32 -2.38 -2.22 -1.52 -4.00
5:3 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.31 0.73 -0.44 -0.46 -0.40 -0.18 -1.02 -3.59 -3.71 -3.44 -2.20 -6.66 -2.29 -2.35 -2.19 -1.48 -4.08
5:4 0.43 0.43 0.41 0.30 0.73 -0.42 -0.44 -0.39 -0.17 -1.02 -3.46 -3.59 -3.30 -1.98 -6.73 -2.24 -2.30 -2.14 -1.43 -4.12
6:1 0.41 0.42 0.39 0.29 0.71 -0.41 -0.42 -0.37 -0.17 -1.01 -3.28 -3.43 -3.11 -1.70 -6.75 -2.15 -2.22 -2.05 -1.34 -4.09
6:2 0.39 0.40 0.38 0.28 0.69 -0.39 -0.41 -0.36 -0.16 -0.98 -3.04 -3.22 -2.88 -1.38 -6.73 -2.06 -2.13 -1.96 -1.24 -4.03
6:3 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.27 0.66 -0.37 -0.39 -0.34 -0.15 -0.94 -2.77 -2.97 -2.61 -1.02 -6.68 -1.95 -2.03 -1.86 -1.13 -3.94
6:4 0.36 0.37 0.35 0.26 0.64 -0.36 -0.37 -0.33 -0.15 -0.91 -2.46 -2.69 -2.31 -0.63 -6.60 -1.84 -1.92 -1.75 -1.02 -3.85
7:1 0.35 0.35 0.33 0.25 0.61 -0.34 -0.36 -0.32 -0.14 -0.87 -2.13 -2.38 -1.99 -0.22 -6.50 -1.72 -1.81 -1.64 -0.90 -3.75
7:2 0.33 0.34 0.32 0.24 0.59 -0.33 -0.34 -0.30 -0.14 -0.84 -1.76 -2.06 -1.64 0.21 -6.38 -1.60 -1.70 -1.53 -0.77 -3.66
7:3 0.32 0.33 0.31 0.23 0.56 -0.32 -0.33 -0.29 -0.13 -0.80 -1.39 -1.73 -1.28 0.66 -6.25 -1.48 -1.59 -1.41 -0.65 -3.56
7:4 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.22 0.54 -0.30 -0.32 -0.28 -0.13 -0.77 -1.00 -1.38 -0.92 1.11 -6.11 -1.36 -1.48 -1.30 -0.53 -3.47
8:1 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.21 0.52 -0.29 -0.30 -0.27 -0.12 -0.74 -0.61 -1.04 -0.56 1.56 -5.98 -1.24 -1.37 -1.18 -0.40 -3.38
8:2 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.20 0.50 -0.28 -0.29 -0.26 -0.12 -0.71 -0.22 -0.71 -0.20 2.00 -5.84 -1.12 -1.26 -1.07 -0.28 -3.29
8:3 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.19 0.48 -0.27 -0.28 -0.25 -0.11 -0.68 0.17 -0.39 0.14 2.43 -5.71 -1.00 -1.16 -0.97 -0.17 -3.20
8:4 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.18 0.46 -0.26 -0.27 -0.24 -0.11 -0.66 0.54 -0.08 0.47 2.84 -5.58 -0.88 -1.06 -0.87 -0.05 -3.12
9:1 0.25 0.26 0.24 0.18 0.44 -0.25 -0.26 -0.23 -0.10 -0.63 0.90 0.21 0.79 3.24 -5.46 -0.77 -0.96 -0.77 0.05 -3.04
9:2 0.24 0.25 0.23 0.17 0.42 -0.24 -0.25 -0.22 -0.10 -0.60 1.24 0.48 1.08 3.62 -5.35 -0.67 -0.87 -0.68 0.16 -2.97
9:3 0.23 0.24 0.22 0.16 0.41 -0.23 -0.24 -0.21 -0.09 -0.58 1.56 0.73 1.35 3.96 -5.24 -0.57 -0.79 -0.59 0.25 -2.90
9:4 0.22 0.23 0.21 0.16 0.39 -0.22 -0.23 -0.20 -0.09 -0.56 1.86 0.96 1.60 4.29 -5.15 -0.47 -0.71 -0.51 0.35 -2.83
10:1 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.15 0.37 -0.21 -0.22 -0.19 -0.09 -0.53 2.13 1.17 1.82 4.58 -5.06 -0.39 -0.64 -0.44 0.43 -2.77
10:2 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.14 0.36 -0.20 -0.21 -0.19 -0.08 -0.51 2.38 1.36 2.02 4.84 -4.97 -0.31 -0.57 -0.37 0.51 -2.71
10:3 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.35 -0.19 -0.20 -0.18 -0.08 -0.49 2.60 1.52 2.20 5.07 -4.90 -0.23 -0.51 -0.30 0.57 -2.65
10:4 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.13 0.33 -0.19 -0.19 -0.17 -0.08 -0.47 2.80 1.67 2.36 5.27 -4.82 -0.16 -0.46 -0.25 0.64 -2.59
11:1 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.13 0.32 -0.18 -0.19 -0.16 -0.07 -0.45 2.97 1.80 2.50 5.44 -4.75 -0.10 -0.40 -0.19 0.69 -2.54
11:2 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.12 0.31 -0.17 -0.18 -0.16 -0.07 -0.44 3.12 1.92 2.62 5.59 -4.68 -0.04 -0.35 -0.14 0.74 -2.49
11:3 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.12 0.29 -0.17 -0.17 -0.15 -0.07 -0.42 3.25 2.03 2.73 5.72 -4.62 0.01 -0.31 -0.10 0.79 -2.44
11:4 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.11 0.28 -0.16 -0.16 -0.15 -0.07 -0.40 3.37 2.13 2.83 5.82 -4.55 0.06 -0.26 -0.05 0.83 -2.39
12:1 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.11 0.27 -0.15 -0.16 -0.14 -0.06 -0.39 3.47 2.22 2.92 5.91 -4.49 0.12 -0.21 -0.00 0.88 -2.33
12:2 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.10 0.26 -0.15 -0.15 -0.13 -0.06 -0.37 3.57 2.30 3.00 5.99 -4.42 0.17 -0.16 0.05 0.92 -2.27
12:3 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.10 0.25 -0.14 -0.15 -0.13 -0.06 -0.36 3.65 2.38 3.08 6.06 -4.36 0.22 -0.11 0.10 0.97 -2.21
12:4 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.24 -0.13 -0.14 -0.12 -0.06 -0.34 3.73 2.46 3.16 6.12 -4.29 0.27 -0.06 0.15 1.01 -2.16
13:1 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.23 -0.13 -0.13 -0.12 -0.05 -0.33 3.80 2.54 3.23 6.17 -4.22 0.32 -0.01 0.19 1.05 -2.10
13:2 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.22 -0.12 -0.13 -0.11 -0.05 -0.31 3.86 2.61 3.29 6.21 -4.15 0.37 0.04 0.24 1.08 -2.04
13:3 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.21 -0.12 -0.12 -0.11 -0.05 -0.30 3.92 2.68 3.36 6.25 -4.08 0.41 0.08 0.28 1.12 -1.99
13:4 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.08 0.20 -0.11 -0.12 -0.11 -0.05 -0.29 3.98 2.74 3.42 6.29 -4.00 0.45 0.12 0.32 1.15 -1.94
14:1 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.20 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.05 -0.28 4.03 2.81 3.48 6.32 -3.93 0.49 0.17 0.36 1.18 -1.88
14:2 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.19 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.04 -0.27 4.08 2.87 3.54 6.35 -3.86 0.53 0.21 0.40 1.21 -1.83
14:3 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.18 -0.10 -0.11 -0.09 -0.04 -0.26 4.12 2.93 3.59 6.37 -3.78 0.56 0.25 0.44 1.24 -1.78
14:4 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.17 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.04 -0.25 4.16 2.99 3.65 6.39 -3.71 0.60 0.28 0.47 1.26 -1.73
15:1 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.17 -0.09 -0.10 -0.09 -0.04 -0.24 4.20 3.04 3.70 6.41 -3.64 0.63 0.32 0.51 1.29 -1.68
15:2 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.16 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08 -0.04 -0.23 4.24 3.10 3.74 6.43 -3.56 0.66 0.36 0.54 1.31 -1.63
15:3 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.15 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08 -0.04 -0.22 4.27 3.14 3.79 6.44 -3.49 0.69 0.39 0.57 1.33 -1.58
15:4 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.15 -0.08 -0.09 -0.08 -0.03 -0.21 4.30 3.19 3.83 6.45 -3.42 0.72 0.42 0.60 1.35 -1.54

Figure 4.5. Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal-Control Policies that Target the Adjusted Employment-Population Ratio When Persistently Low Interest Rates Generate Adverse Leverage and So Cause a Second Recession (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year:Simulation Quarter Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects Real Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects Real GDP Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects Real GDP Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects Real GDP Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects Real GDP Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects Unemployment Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects Labor Force Participation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects Inflation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects
1:1 -1.86 -1.57 -1.49 -0.19 -1.90 -1.64 -1.58 0.17 -0.92 -0.92 -0.92 -0.89 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 0.04 0.06 0.09 -0.36
1:2 -3.38 -2.79 -2.65 -0.57 -3.42 -2.87 -2.80 0.18 -1.65 -1.64 -1.80 -1.94 0.28 0.28 0.31 0.33 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 0.03 0.08 0.15 -0.75
1:3 -4.34 -3.44 -2.98 -1.15 -4.36 -3.53 -3.20 0.04 -2.40 -2.39 -2.72 -3.14 0.50 0.49 0.58 0.68 -0.24 -0.24 -0.25 -0.25 0.02 0.09 0.22 -1.19
1:4 -4.48 -4.03 -2.99 -1.88 -4.48 -4.13 -3.28 -0.21 -2.92 -2.92 -3.44 -4.13 0.73 0.72 0.89 1.10 -0.37 -0.37 -0.38 -0.39 -0.00 0.11 0.29 -1.66
2:1 -4.49 -4.38 -2.99 -2.64 -4.43 -4.45 -3.28 -0.83 -3.37 -3.36 -4.08 -5.02 0.95 0.95 1.21 1.55 -0.46 -0.46 -0.48 -0.50 -0.06 0.06 0.28 -1.81
2:2 -4.49 -4.43 -3.00 -3.41 -4.43 -4.50 -3.31 -1.46 -3.75 -3.71 -4.62 -5.75 1.17 1.15 1.53 1.99 -0.53 -0.53 -0.56 -0.61 -0.06 0.07 0.31 -1.94
2:3 -4.49 -4.44 -3.00 -4.14 -4.44 -4.52 -3.34 -2.10 -4.09 -4.03 -5.09 -6.38 1.36 1.33 1.81 2.39 -0.58 -0.58 -0.64 -0.73 -0.05 0.09 0.34 -2.04
2:4 -4.49 -4.44 -3.00 -4.47 -4.47 -4.55 -3.39 -2.37 -4.40 -4.31 -5.51 -6.92 1.52 1.48 2.05 2.72 -0.63 -0.63 -0.72 -0.86 -0.02 0.11 0.38 -2.10
3:1 -4.49 -4.44 -3.00 -4.47 -4.50 -4.59 -3.43 -2.34 -4.61 -4.50 -5.81 -7.31 1.66 1.61 2.25 2.98 -0.66 -0.65 -0.79 -0.97 0.01 0.15 0.43 -2.13
3:2 -4.49 -4.44 -3.00 -4.47 -4.53 -4.62 -3.48 -2.32 -4.69 -4.55 -5.97 -7.55 1.75 1.69 2.39 3.15 -0.68 -0.67 -0.86 -1.07 0.04 0.18 0.48 -2.16
3:3 -4.49 -4.44 -3.00 -4.47 -4.56 -4.66 -3.52 -2.30 -4.63 -4.48 -5.98 -7.64 1.78 1.71 2.45 3.24 -0.70 -0.69 -0.92 -1.17 0.07 0.22 0.52 -2.18
3:4 -4.49 -4.44 -3.01 -4.47 -4.59 -4.68 -3.57 -2.28 -4.47 -4.30 -5.87 -7.62 1.76 1.67 2.43 3.25 -0.72 -0.69 -0.97 -1.25 0.10 0.25 0.56 -2.19
4:1 -4.49 -4.44 -3.01 -4.47 -4.62 -4.71 -3.61 -2.27 -4.21 -4.03 -5.66 -7.50 1.67 1.58 2.35 3.18 -0.72 -0.69 -1.01 -1.32 0.12 0.27 0.60 -2.20
4:2 -4.49 -4.44 -3.01 -4.47 -4.64 -4.74 -3.65 -2.27 -3.89 -3.69 -5.37 -7.30 1.54 1.44 2.20 3.05 -0.72 -0.68 -1.04 -1.37 0.15 0.30 0.65 -2.21
4:3 -4.49 -4.44 -3.01 -4.47 -4.67 -4.77 -3.70 -2.27 -3.51 -3.30 -5.02 -7.05 1.36 1.25 2.00 2.87 -0.70 -0.66 -1.05 -1.41 0.18 0.33 0.69 -2.21
4:4 -4.49 -4.47 -3.01 -4.47 -4.71 -4.83 -3.75 -2.27 -3.09 -2.88 -4.62 -6.76 1.14 1.04 1.77 2.65 -0.66 -0.62 -1.04 -1.43 0.21 0.36 0.74 -2.20
5:1 -4.49 -4.46 -3.01 -4.47 -4.73 -4.85 -3.79 -2.28 -2.65 -2.43 -4.18 -6.44 0.91 0.81 1.51 2.41 -0.62 -0.57 -1.01 -1.44 0.24 0.39 0.79 -2.19
5:2 -4.49 -4.24 -3.00 -4.47 -4.77 -4.66 -3.84 -2.30 -2.19 -1.98 -3.70 -6.10 0.67 0.56 1.23 2.15 -0.56 -0.51 -0.96 -1.43 0.28 0.42 0.84 -2.18
5:3 -4.49 -3.83 -3.00 -4.47 -4.80 -4.28 -3.89 -2.32 -1.73 -1.53 -3.21 -5.73 0.42 0.32 0.95 1.89 -0.50 -0.45 -0.90 -1.40 0.31 0.45 0.89 -2.16
5:4 -4.48 -3.43 -3.00 -4.47 -4.83 -3.91 -3.94 -2.34 -1.27 -1.11 -2.71 -5.35 0.18 0.09 0.68 1.63 -0.44 -0.39 -0.83 -1.34 0.35 0.48 0.94 -2.13
6:1 -4.48 -3.16 -3.00 -4.44 -4.86 -3.67 -3.98 -2.33 -0.83 -0.70 -2.22 -4.95 -0.05 -0.13 0.41 1.38 -0.38 -0.33 -0.75 -1.28 0.38 0.51 0.98 -2.11
6:2 -4.48 -3.13 -3.00 -4.36 -4.89 -3.66 -4.03 -2.28 -0.39 -0.31 -1.72 -4.55 -0.27 -0.33 0.16 1.14 -0.32 -0.27 -0.68 -1.20 0.41 0.53 1.02 -2.08
6:3 -4.47 -3.35 -3.00 -4.23 -4.91 -3.90 -4.06 -2.18 0.02 0.07 -1.25 -4.17 -0.47 -0.51 -0.07 0.93 -0.26 -0.21 -0.60 -1.13 0.44 0.55 1.06 -2.05
6:4 -4.47 -3.27 -3.00 -4.08 -4.93 -3.83 -4.09 -2.06 0.41 0.45 -0.79 -3.80 -0.66 -0.68 -0.29 0.73 -0.20 -0.16 -0.53 -1.05 0.46 0.56 1.10 -2.02
7:1 -4.47 -2.98 -2.99 -3.91 -4.95 -3.55 -4.12 -1.91 0.77 0.82 -0.35 -3.46 -0.82 -0.84 -0.49 0.55 -0.15 -0.11 -0.46 -0.97 0.49 0.56 1.13 -1.99
7:2 -4.47 -2.61 -2.99 -3.72 -4.97 -3.17 -4.15 -1.75 1.10 1.15 0.06 -3.15 -0.96 -0.98 -0.68 0.39 -0.10 -0.07 -0.39 -0.90 0.51 0.56 1.15 -1.97
7:3 -4.46 -2.17 -2.99 -3.53 -4.98 -2.73 -4.16 -1.58 1.39 1.46 0.44 -2.86 -1.08 -1.11 -0.84 0.24 -0.05 -0.02 -0.33 -0.83 0.52 0.56 1.17 -1.95
7:4 -4.46 -1.76 -2.99 -3.34 -4.99 -2.31 -4.17 -1.41 1.65 1.73 0.79 -2.60 -1.19 -1.22 -0.99 0.12 -0.01 0.02 -0.28 -0.77 0.54 0.54 1.18 -1.93
8:1 -4.44 -1.44 -2.99 -3.16 -4.98 -1.96 -4.18 -1.24 1.88 1.98 1.10 -2.37 -1.27 -1.31 -1.11 0.01 0.02 0.05 -0.23 -0.71 0.54 0.52 1.19 -1.92
8:2 -4.42 -1.26 -2.98 -2.99 -4.97 -1.75 -4.18 -1.08 2.06 2.21 1.39 -2.16 -1.33 -1.39 -1.22 -0.08 0.05 0.08 -0.18 -0.65 0.55 0.49 1.19 -1.91
8:3 -4.36 -1.19 -2.99 -2.83 -4.91 -1.64 -4.18 -0.91 2.21 2.43 1.64 -1.96 -1.37 -1.45 -1.31 -0.16 0.08 0.11 -0.14 -0.60 0.55 0.45 1.19 -1.91
8:4 -4.22 -1.28 -2.98 -2.68 -4.77 -1.69 -4.15 -0.76 2.32 2.65 1.86 -1.79 -1.39 -1.51 -1.37 -0.23 0.10 0.13 -0.10 -0.56 0.55 0.41 1.17 -1.92
9:1 -4.02 -1.51 -2.98 -2.55 -4.56 -1.86 -4.13 -0.62 2.39 2.88 2.05 -1.63 -1.38 -1.57 -1.42 -0.29 0.12 0.15 -0.07 -0.52 0.54 0.35 1.16 -1.93
9:2 -3.84 -1.86 -2.97 -2.43 -4.37 -2.15 -4.10 -0.48 2.43 3.12 2.21 -1.48 -1.36 -1.63 -1.46 -0.34 0.13 0.17 -0.04 -0.48 0.53 0.29 1.13 -1.95
9:3 -3.62 -2.29 -2.96 -2.32 -4.14 -2.50 -4.07 -0.36 2.43 3.38 2.34 -1.33 -1.33 -1.70 -1.48 -0.38 0.14 0.19 -0.01 -0.44 0.52 0.22 1.10 -1.97
9:4 -3.40 -2.70 -2.96 -2.23 -3.90 -2.84 -4.03 -0.24 2.39 3.66 2.45 -1.20 -1.27 -1.77 -1.48 -0.42 0.15 0.21 0.01 -0.41 0.50 0.14 1.07 -2.00
10:1 -3.18 -3.04 -2.96 -2.28 -3.66 -3.10 -3.99 -0.25 2.34 3.22 2.52 -1.90 -1.20 -1.72 -1.47 -0.29 0.15 0.23 0.03 -0.38 0.48 0.06 1.03 -2.03
10:2 -2.97 -4.10 -2.95 -2.49 -3.43 -4.08 -3.94 -0.43 2.25 2.40 2.58 -2.96 -1.12 -1.49 -1.44 0.04 0.14 0.24 0.04 -0.37 0.46 -0.02 0.99 -2.06
10:3 -2.78 -4.48 -2.94 -2.85 -3.21 -4.38 -3.89 -0.75 2.16 1.53 2.61 -4.05 -1.03 -1.14 -1.41 0.51 0.14 0.23 0.05 -0.37 0.44 -0.10 0.94 -2.10
10:4 -2.60 -4.51 -2.92 -3.29 -3.01 -4.34 -3.82 -1.15 2.05 0.83 2.62 -4.90 -0.93 -0.73 -1.37 1.03 0.13 0.20 0.06 -0.41 0.41 -0.17 0.90 -2.13
11:1 -2.45 -4.53 -2.93 -3.76 -2.83 -4.29 -3.78 -1.60 1.97 0.30 2.65 -5.53 -0.83 -0.32 -1.32 1.53 0.12 0.15 0.06 -0.46 0.38 -0.24 0.85 -2.16
11:2 -2.32 -4.54 -2.93 -4.22 -2.68 -4.25 -3.73 -2.04 1.91 -0.05 2.69 -5.92 -0.74 0.04 -1.28 1.96 0.11 0.09 0.06 -0.54 0.35 -0.30 0.80 -2.19
11:3 -2.21 -4.56 -2.92 -4.47 -2.54 -4.21 -3.67 -2.27 1.86 -0.25 2.72 -6.15 -0.67 0.33 -1.24 2.28 0.09 0.03 0.07 -0.63 0.32 -0.35 0.75 -2.20
11:4 -2.12 -4.57 -2.90 -4.47 -2.42 -4.19 -3.60 -2.27 1.81 -0.34 2.75 -6.26 -0.60 0.53 -1.20 2.49 0.08 -0.03 0.07 -0.74 0.30 -0.38 0.70 -2.20
12:1 -2.05 -4.58 -2.88 -4.47 -2.31 -4.17 -3.52 -2.29 1.78 -0.33 2.77 -6.27 -0.54 0.66 -1.16 2.59 0.07 -0.08 0.07 -0.84 0.27 -0.41 0.65 -2.19
12:2 -1.98 -4.59 -2.83 -4.47 -2.22 -4.16 -3.43 -2.31 1.75 -0.24 2.79 -6.20 -0.48 0.71 -1.12 2.60 0.06 -0.11 0.07 -0.93 0.24 -0.43 0.60 -2.16
12:3 -1.93 -4.59 -2.72 -4.47 -2.14 -4.15 -3.27 -2.34 1.73 -0.10 2.79 -6.09 -0.44 0.71 -1.08 2.53 0.05 -0.14 0.07 -1.00 0.22 -0.44 0.55 -2.13
12:4 -1.88 -4.60 -2.58 -4.47 -2.07 -4.15 -3.09 -2.38 1.71 0.08 2.78 -5.93 -0.40 0.66 -1.03 2.41 0.04 -0.15 0.07 -1.07 0.19 -0.45 0.51 -2.09
13:1 -1.83 -4.60 -2.43 -4.47 -2.00 -4.15 -2.90 -2.43 1.70 0.29 2.76 -5.73 -0.36 0.57 -0.99 2.25 0.04 -0.16 0.07 -1.11 0.17 -0.44 0.46 -2.04
13:2 -1.78 -4.59 -2.28 -4.47 -1.93 -4.16 -2.70 -2.49 1.69 0.53 2.73 -5.51 -0.33 0.45 -0.93 2.07 0.03 -0.15 0.06 -1.14 0.15 -0.43 0.42 -1.98
13:3 -1.73 -4.59 -2.12 -4.47 -1.86 -4.17 -2.51 -2.55 1.69 0.78 2.69 -5.26 -0.30 0.32 -0.88 1.87 0.03 -0.14 0.06 -1.14 0.13 -0.42 0.38 -1.92
13:4 -1.68 -4.59 -1.98 -4.41 -1.80 -4.19 -2.33 -2.56 1.68 1.04 2.64 -5.00 -0.28 0.18 -0.82 1.67 0.02 -0.12 0.06 -1.13 0.12 -0.39 0.35 -1.85
14:1 -1.64 -4.58 -1.85 -4.31 -1.74 -4.22 -2.17 -2.53 1.68 1.30 2.58 -4.72 -0.26 0.04 -0.76 1.47 0.02 -0.10 0.05 -1.11 0.11 -0.36 0.31 -1.78
14:2 -1.60 -4.57 -1.74 -4.17 -1.69 -4.24 -2.03 -2.48 1.69 1.55 2.52 -4.43 -0.24 -0.10 -0.70 1.28 0.02 -0.07 0.05 -1.07 0.10 -0.33 0.28 -1.69
14:3 -1.55 -4.57 -1.65 -4.00 -1.64 -4.28 -1.90 -2.39 1.69 1.80 2.47 -4.15 -0.23 -0.24 -0.64 1.11 0.02 -0.05 0.04 -1.02 0.09 -0.29 0.25 -1.61
14:4 -1.51 -4.56 -1.56 -3.81 -1.59 -4.31 -1.79 -2.29 1.70 2.04 2.41 -3.88 -0.22 -0.37 -0.58 0.95 0.01 -0.02 0.03 -0.96 0.08 -0.25 0.23 -1.52
15:1 -1.46 -4.55 -1.48 -3.61 -1.54 -4.35 -1.69 -2.18 1.70 2.25 2.35 -3.63 -0.21 -0.49 -0.53 0.80 0.01 0.01 0.03 -0.91 0.08 -0.20 0.20 -1.43
15:2 -1.41 -4.54 -1.41 -3.39 -1.48 -4.39 -1.59 -2.05 1.71 2.45 2.30 -3.40 -0.20 -0.59 -0.47 0.68 0.01 0.03 0.02 -0.85 0.07 -0.15 0.18 -1.34
15:3 -1.36 -4.53 -1.35 -3.17 -1.43 -4.44 -1.51 -1.92 1.72 2.63 2.25 -3.19 -0.19 -0.68 -0.42 0.57 0.01 0.05 0.01 -0.80 0.07 -0.10 0.16 -1.25
15:4 -1.31 -4.52 -1.30 -2.96 -1.38 -4.48 -1.44 -1.80 1.72 2.78 2.21 -3.00 -0.18 -0.76 -0.38 0.48 0.01 0.07 0.01 -0.75 0.07 -0.04 0.14 -1.16
  -1.27 -4.51 -1.26 -2.74 -1.34 -4.52 -1.38 -1.67 1.73 2.90 2.16 -2.84 -0.17 -0.82 -0.34 0.40 0.01 0.09 0.00 -0.71 0.07 0.01 0.13 -1.07
  -1.22 -3.69 -1.22 -2.54 -1.30 -3.75 -1.33 -1.55 1.73 2.99 2.13 -2.70 -0.17 -0.86 -0.30 0.34 0.01 0.11 -0.00 -0.66 0.08 0.06 0.11 -0.99
  -1.18 -2.99 -1.19 -2.34 -1.26 -3.10 -1.29 -1.43 1.73 3.03 2.09 -2.57 -0.16 -0.88 -0.26 0.30 0.01 0.12 -0.01 -0.63 0.08 0.11 0.10 -0.91
  -1.14 -2.41 -1.16 -2.16 -1.23 -2.58 -1.25 -1.32 1.74 3.01 2.06 -2.47 -0.15 -0.88 -0.23 0.26 0.01 0.13 -0.01 -0.59 0.08 0.16 0.09 -0.84
  -1.11 -1.95 -1.13 -1.99 -1.19 -2.16 -1.21 -1.21 1.74 2.96 2.03 -2.38 -0.15 -0.85 -0.21 0.24 0.01 0.14 -0.02 -0.56 0.09 0.21 0.08 -0.77
  -1.07 -1.59 -1.10 -1.83 -1.16 -1.83 -1.17 -1.12 1.74 2.88 2.01 -2.31 -0.14 -0.81 -0.19 0.23 0.01 0.14 -0.02 -0.53 0.09 0.25 0.07 -0.71
  -1.03 -1.32 -1.06 -1.69 -1.12 -1.60 -1.13 -1.03 1.74 2.79 1.99 -2.25 -0.14 -0.75 -0.16 0.22 0.01 0.14 -0.02 -0.51 0.09 0.28 0.07 -0.65
  -1.00 -1.13 -1.03 -1.56 -1.09 -1.44 -1.10 -0.96 1.74 2.69 1.97 -2.20 -0.13 -0.68 -0.15 0.22 0.01 0.13 -0.02 -0.49 0.10 0.31 0.06 -0.60
  -0.97 -1.01 -1.01 -1.45 -1.07 -1.34 -1.07 -0.89 1.74 2.60 1.95 -2.15 -0.12 -0.61 -0.13 0.22 0.01 0.12 -0.02 -0.47 0.10 0.33 0.06 -0.56
  -0.94 -0.95 -0.98 -1.34 -1.05 -1.29 -1.04 -0.83 1.74 2.51 1.93 -2.11 -0.12 -0.53 -0.12 0.23 0.01 0.11 -0.03 -0.45 0.10 0.34 0.05 -0.52
  -0.92 -0.92 -0.96 -1.26 -1.03 -1.27 -1.01 -0.77 1.74 2.44 1.91 -2.08 -0.11 -0.47 -0.10 0.24 0.01 0.10 -0.03 -0.43 0.11 0.35 0.05 -0.48
  -0.90 -0.93 -0.94 -1.18 -1.01 -1.28 -0.99 -0.73 1.73 2.37 1.90 -2.04 -0.11 -0.41 -0.09 0.25 0.01 0.09 -0.03 -0.42 0.11 0.35 0.05 -0.45
  -0.88 -0.95 -0.91 -1.11 -0.99 -1.30 -0.96 -0.69 1.73 2.33 1.88 -2.01 -0.10 -0.35 -0.08 0.27 0.01 0.08 -0.03 -0.40 0.11 0.35 0.05 -0.42
  -0.85 -0.99 -0.88 -1.05 -0.96 -1.33 -0.93 -0.65 1.73 2.29 1.87 -1.98 -0.09 -0.31 -0.07 0.28 0.01 0.07 -0.03 -0.39 0.11 0.35 0.05 -0.40
  -0.83 -1.02 -0.85 -1.00 -0.94 -1.37 -0.91 -0.62 1.72 2.27 1.85 -1.94 -0.09 -0.27 -0.06 0.29 0.01 0.06 -0.03 -0.38 0.11 0.34 0.05 -0.38
  -0.81 -1.06 -0.83 -0.96 -0.92 -1.40 -0.88 -0.60 1.72 2.25 1.84 -1.91 -0.08 -0.25 -0.05 0.30 0.00 0.05 -0.03 -0.37 0.11 0.33 0.05 -0.37
  -0.79 -1.10 -0.80 -0.93 -0.90 -1.43 -0.86 -0.57 1.71 2.25 1.82 -1.87 -0.08 -0.23 -0.04 0.31 0.00 0.05 -0.03 -0.36 0.11 0.32 0.05 -0.35
  -0.77 -1.13 -0.78 -0.89 -0.89 -1.45 -0.84 -0.55 1.71 2.25 1.81 -1.83 -0.07 -0.22 -0.03 0.31 0.00 0.04 -0.03 -0.35 0.11 0.31 0.05 -0.34
  -0.76 -1.16 -0.76 -0.87 -0.87 -1.46 -0.82 -0.54 1.70 2.26 1.79 -1.79 -0.07 -0.21 -0.02 0.32 0.00 0.04 -0.03 -0.34 0.11 0.30 0.06 -0.33
  -0.74 -1.17 -0.74 -0.85 -0.85 -1.46 -0.79 -0.52 1.70 2.27 1.78 -1.75 -0.06 -0.20 -0.02 0.32 0.00 0.03 -0.03 -0.33 0.11 0.29 0.06 -0.32

Figure A.1. Sensitivity of Supply-Side Estimates to Changes in Model Specification Potential Output Growth (4-quarter)

  Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Baseline Model Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Model with a Post-1994 Shift in the Slope of the Phillips Curve Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Model Without Inflation Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Model Without Nonfarm Business Income Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Baseline Model Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Model with a Post-1994 Shift in the Slope of the Phillips Curve Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Model Without Inflation Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Model Without Nonfarm Business Income
1990Q1 3.20 3.13 3.14 3.28 5.70 5.86 6.15 5.87
1990Q2 3.21 3.13 3.14 3.14 5.61 5.78 6.07 5.77
1990Q3 3.16 3.09 3.09 3.06 5.60 5.78 6.08 5.74
1990Q4 3.11 3.04 3.03 3.06 5.54 5.74 6.04 5.69
1991Q1 2.71 2.64 2.62 2.77 5.51 5.72 6.02 5.66
1991Q2 2.49 2.42 2.39 2.64 5.44 5.66 5.96 5.59
1991Q3 2.35 2.28 2.24 2.59 5.30 5.53 5.84 5.46
1991Q4 2.48 2.42 2.38 2.55 5.26 5.50 5.82 5.44
1992Q1 2.82 2.77 2.72 2.59 5.40 5.65 5.96 5.51
1992Q2 3.01 2.97 2.92 2.75 5.49 5.75 6.07 5.57
1992Q3 3.06 3.02 2.97 2.76 5.51 5.77 6.11 5.60
1992Q4 2.85 2.82 2.76 2.68 5.48 5.75 6.10 5.58
1993Q1 2.40 2.36 2.29 2.72 5.35 5.63 5.99 5.51
1993Q2 2.21 2.17 2.10 2.63 5.35 5.63 6.01 5.55
1993Q3 1.94 1.90 1.83 2.51 5.29 5.58 5.98 5.52
1993Q4 2.27 2.23 2.16 2.66 5.30 5.59 6.01 5.52
1994Q1 2.68 2.64 2.59 2.77 5.29 5.59 6.01 5.51
1994Q2 2.90 2.87 2.81 2.96 5.21 5.51 5.95 5.45
1994Q3 3.28 3.25 3.19 3.20 5.19 5.50 5.96 5.47
1994Q4 3.07 3.03 2.97 3.08 5.16 5.48 5.95 5.45
1995Q1 2.71 2.67 2.62 2.90 5.13 5.46 5.94 5.43
1995Q2 2.48 2.43 2.38 2.62 5.24 5.57 6.06 5.53
1995Q3 2.32 2.27 2.22 2.49 5.30 5.64 6.13 5.58
1995Q4 2.35 2.30 2.26 2.53 5.33 5.68 6.18 5.60
1996Q1 2.69 2.64 2.60 2.68 5.30 5.65 6.16 5.55
1996Q2 3.19 3.15 3.10 3.04 5.33 5.69 6.19 5.56
1996Q3 3.36 3.32 3.27 3.20 5.32 5.68 6.19 5.55
1996Q4 3.56 3.52 3.47 3.36 5.42 5.79 6.30 5.65
1997Q1 3.64 3.59 3.55 3.49 5.43 5.81 6.32 5.66
1997Q2 3.61 3.57 3.51 3.51 5.37 5.75 6.28 5.62
1997Q3 3.92 3.88 3.83 3.64 5.40 5.79 6.32 5.64
1997Q4 3.94 3.90 3.84 3.67 5.37 5.77 6.31 5.60
1998Q1 3.86 3.83 3.77 3.59 5.39 5.80 6.34 5.61
1998Q2 3.79 3.75 3.70 3.57 5.31 5.72 6.27 5.50
1998Q3 3.78 3.75 3.70 3.51 5.42 5.83 6.38 5.56
1998Q4 3.85 3.82 3.77 3.59 5.48 5.90 6.44 5.62
1999Q1 3.95 3.93 3.88 3.62 5.52 5.94 6.49 5.64
1999Q2 3.93 3.91 3.85 3.67 5.51 5.94 6.49 5.64
1999Q3 3.86 3.84 3.78 3.72 5.54 5.97 6.52 5.70
1999Q4 4.11 4.09 4.04 3.76 5.54 5.97 6.53 5.70
2000Q1 4.22 4.20 4.15 3.85 5.58 6.01 6.56 5.67
2000Q2 4.34 4.33 4.28 3.78 5.56 5.99 6.55 5.64
2000Q3 4.08 4.07 4.02 3.58 5.58 6.01 6.57 5.65
2000Q4 3.65 3.64 3.58 3.38 5.44 5.88 6.44 5.54
2001Q1 3.27 3.26 3.20 3.05 5.44 5.87 6.44 5.50
2001Q2 2.90 2.90 2.83 2.74 5.39 5.82 6.39 5.42
2001Q3 2.85 2.85 2.78 2.63 5.36 5.78 6.36 5.39
2001Q4 2.74 2.76 2.69 2.38 5.48 5.90 6.47 5.52
2002Q1 2.65 2.68 2.60 2.20 5.54 5.95 6.52 5.51
2002Q2 2.67 2.69 2.62 2.34 5.54 5.95 6.52 5.51
2002Q3 2.49 2.51 2.44 2.28 5.42 5.82 6.40 5.42
2002Q4 2.27 2.28 2.21 2.21 5.39 5.80 6.38 5.42
2003Q1 2.37 2.38 2.31 2.32 5.31 5.71 6.30 5.34
2003Q2 2.20 2.22 2.16 1.97 5.47 5.86 6.45 5.47
2003Q3 2.09 2.11 2.06 1.73 5.53 5.92 6.50 5.49
2003Q4 2.44 2.47 2.42 1.99 5.46 5.84 6.43 5.42
2004Q1 2.45 2.48 2.44 2.05 5.47 5.85 6.44 5.45
2004Q2 2.41 2.44 2.40 2.13 5.47 5.85 6.44 5.43
2004Q3 2.76 2.78 2.74 2.52 5.46 5.83 6.43 5.40
2004Q4 2.75 2.78 2.75 2.53 5.46 5.83 6.43 5.42
2005Q1 2.78 2.81 2.78 2.52 5.46 5.82 6.43 5.41
2005Q2 2.91 2.94 2.91 2.76 5.42 5.78 6.39 5.38
2005Q3 2.77 2.80 2.77 2.63 5.39 5.75 6.36 5.36
2005Q4 2.53 2.57 2.54 2.47 5.47 5.82 6.44 5.43
2006Q1 2.51 2.55 2.53 2.51 5.46 5.80 6.42 5.38
2006Q2 2.48 2.52 2.50 2.47 5.49 5.83 6.45 5.41
2006Q3 2.30 2.33 2.31 2.46 5.53 5.86 6.49 5.45
2006Q4 2.17 2.22 2.19 2.42 5.49 5.82 6.46 5.39
2007Q1 1.95 1.99 1.95 2.36 5.46 5.78 6.43 5.40
2007Q2 1.90 1.94 1.90 2.29 5.38 5.69 6.35 5.37
2007Q3 2.05 2.11 2.06 2.27 5.40 5.70 6.37 5.45
2007Q4 2.43 2.48 2.43 2.49 5.36 5.65 6.33 5.44
2008Q1 2.72 2.78 2.73 2.66 5.33 5.61 6.29 5.40
2008Q2 2.94 3.00 2.95 2.79 5.32 5.59 6.28 5.39
2008Q3 2.87 2.93 2.88 2.74 5.40 5.66 6.35 5.44
2008Q4 2.38 2.43 2.38 2.44 5.39 5.64 6.33 5.46
2009Q1 1.47 1.53 1.48 1.55 5.70 5.93 6.62 5.74
2009Q2 1.40 1.47 1.41 1.38 5.82 6.03 6.72 5.84
2009Q3 1.67 1.74 1.67 1.56 5.65 5.86 6.54 5.70
2009Q4 1.84 1.91 1.84 1.51 5.72 5.92 6.60 5.76
2010Q1 2.31 2.37 2.30 1.94 5.74 5.93 6.61 5.73
2010Q2 1.85 1.90 1.84 1.75 5.72 5.90 6.59 5.73
2010Q3 1.06 1.10 1.05 1.11 5.82 6.01 6.70 5.82
2010Q4 0.59 0.63 0.59 0.80 6.00 6.18 6.87 5.99
2011Q1 0.54 0.57 0.54 0.86 5.81 5.98 6.69 5.80
2011Q2 0.50 0.53 0.50 0.76 5.90 6.07 6.78 5.91
2011Q3 0.73 0.76 0.73 1.01 5.92 6.08 6.80 5.97
2011Q4 1.12 1.14 1.11 1.33 5.83 5.99 6.72 5.91
2012Q1 1.15 1.17 1.14 1.33 5.72 5.88 6.61 5.80
2012Q2 1.04 1.05 1.02 1.23 5.78 5.94 6.68 5.89
2012Q3 0.99 1.00 0.97 1.15 5.75 5.91 6.66 5.90
2012Q4 0.90 0.91 0.89 1.10 5.77 5.93 6.67 5.88
2013Q1 1.09 1.10 1.08 1.18 5.78 5.94 6.69 5.88
2013Q2                
2013Q3                
2013Q4                

Figure A.2 Output Gap Estimates -- State-Space Model Versus EDO

  Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the GDP Gap Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the GDP Gap Estimated GDP GAP From the State-Space Model Production-Function Estimate of the GDP GAP From the EDO Model Beveridge-Nelson Estimate of the GDP Gap From the EDO Model
1985Q1 -2.58 0.58 -1.00 0.22 1.90
1985Q2 -2.69 0.47 -1.11 0.13 1.72
1985Q3 -2.64 0.52 -1.06 0.14 1.71
1985Q4 -2.65 0.51 -1.07 0.26 1.55
1986Q1 -2.59 0.57 -1.01 -0.02 1.08
1986Q2 -2.75 0.41 -1.17 -0.38 0.53
1986Q3 -2.71 0.45 -1.13 -0.47 0.40
1986Q4 -2.58 0.58 -1.00 -0.26 0.38
1987Q1 -2.29 0.87 -0.71 0.31 0.58
1987Q2 -1.83 1.33 -0.25 0.62 0.80
1987Q3 -1.63 1.53 -0.05 0.82 0.96
1987Q4 -1.19 1.97 0.39 0.91 1.34
1988Q1 -1.19 1.97 0.39 1.22 1.35
1988Q2 -0.64 2.52 0.94 1.84 1.86
1988Q3 -0.67 2.49 0.91 2.21 1.94
1988Q4 -0.16 3.00 1.42 2.72 2.40
1989Q1 -0.44 2.72 1.14 3.18 2.78
1989Q2 -0.85 2.31 0.73 3.09 2.64
1989Q3 -0.95 2.21 0.63 3.02 2.53
1989Q4 -1.22 1.94 0.36 3.09 2.33
1990Q1 -1.29 1.88 0.29 2.97 2.36
1990Q2 -1.68 1.48 -0.10 2.51 1.89
1990Q3 -2.54 0.62 -0.96 2.00 1.27
1990Q4 -3.65 -0.48 -2.07 1.21 0.15
1991Q1 -4.56 -1.39 -2.98 0.31 -0.88
1991Q2 -4.81 -1.65 -3.23 -0.59 -1.51
1991Q3 -5.09 -1.92 -3.51 -1.18 -1.88
1991Q4 -5.53 -2.36 -3.95 -1.90 -2.37
1992Q1 -5.48 -2.31 -3.90 -2.42 -2.72
1992Q2 -5.40 -2.23 -3.81 -2.85 -2.78
1992Q3 -5.34 -2.17 -3.76 -3.03 -2.85
1992Q4 -4.74 -1.57 -3.16 -2.77 -2.59
1993Q1 -4.74 -1.57 -3.16 -2.32 -2.38
1993Q2 -4.35 -1.18 -2.77 -1.70 -2.03
1993Q3 -4.18 -1.00 -2.59 -1.47 -2.02
1993Q4 -3.62 -0.45 -2.04 -1.35 -1.77
1994Q1 -3.41 -0.24 -1.83 -1.11 -1.53
1994Q2 -2.77 0.40 -1.19 -0.34 -0.84
1994Q3 -2.51 0.67 -0.92 0.28 -0.58
1994Q4 -2.04 1.14 -0.45 0.44 -0.30
1995Q1 -2.09 1.09 -0.50 0.62 -0.34
1995Q2 -2.39 0.79 -0.80 0.46 -0.65
1995Q3 -1.97 1.21 -0.38 0.44 -0.65
1995Q4 -1.97 1.21 -0.38 0.05 -0.90
1996Q1 -2.06 1.13 -0.46 -0.38 -1.25
1996Q2 -1.63 1.56 -0.04 -0.53 -1.04
1996Q3 -1.36 1.84 0.24 -0.29 -0.84
1996Q4 -1.03 2.17 0.57 0.03 -0.63
1997Q1 -0.91 2.29 0.69 0.43 -0.34
1997Q2 -0.73 2.47 0.87 0.45 -0.18
1997Q3 -0.44 2.77 1.16 0.64 -0.02
1997Q4 -0.29 2.91 1.31 0.84 0.01
1998Q1 -0.15 3.05 1.45 1.02 0.13
1998Q2 0.00 3.21 1.61 1.28 0.17
1998Q3 0.10 3.32 1.71 1.09 0.09
1998Q4 0.51 3.72 2.12 1.45 0.50
1999Q1 0.64 3.86 2.25 1.72 0.56
1999Q2 0.58 3.80 2.19 2.18 0.67
1999Q3 0.72 3.94 2.33 2.38 0.77
1999Q4 1.11 4.34 2.72 2.60 0.99
2000Q1 1.28 4.52 2.90 3.01 1.00
2000Q2 1.25 4.49 2.87 2.87 1.05
2000Q3 1.02 4.27 2.64 3.11 0.82
2000Q4 0.51 3.76 2.14 2.96 0.50
2001Q1 0.18 3.44 1.81 2.79 -0.08
2001Q2 -0.61 2.66 1.02 2.01 -0.74
2001Q3 -1.70 1.57 -0.06 1.13 -1.66
2001Q4 -2.58 0.70 -0.94 0.19 -2.44
2002Q1 -2.31 0.98 -0.66 -0.71 -2.93
2002Q2 -2.32 0.97 -0.67 -0.74 -2.94
2002Q3 -2.49 0.81 -0.84 -1.07 -3.10
2002Q4 -2.60 0.70 -0.95 -1.25 -3.28
2003Q1 -3.01 0.31 -1.35 -1.62 -3.47
2003Q2 -2.89 0.44 -1.22 -1.98 -3.54
2003Q3 -2.28 1.06 -0.61 -2.06 -3.22
2003Q4 -2.02 1.33 -0.35 -1.69 -2.81
2004Q1 -1.89 1.46 -0.21 -1.18 -2.47
2004Q2 -1.62 1.74 0.06 -0.94 -2.16
2004Q3 -1.40 1.98 0.29 -0.55 -1.76
2004Q4 -1.36 2.03 0.34 -0.02 -1.27
2005Q1 -1.13 2.27 0.57 0.33 -0.81
2005Q2 -1.04 2.38 0.67 0.69 -0.49
2005Q3 -0.91 2.52 0.81 0.84 -0.17
2005Q4 -0.56 2.88 1.16 1.39 0.32
2006Q1 0.06 3.52 1.79 1.98 1.06
2006Q2 -0.12 3.36 1.62 2.52 1.51
2006Q3 -0.09 3.40 1.66 3.01 1.83
2006Q4 0.18 3.69 1.93 3.43 2.19
2007Q1 -0.38 3.15 1.39 3.75 2.39
2007Q2 -0.43 3.12 1.35 3.90 2.66
2007Q3 -0.83 2.74 0.95 3.83 2.64
2007Q4 -1.23 2.36 0.56 3.83 2.54
2008Q1 -1.78 1.83 0.02 3.82 2.20
2008Q2 -2.60 1.03 -0.79 3.67 2.00
2008Q3 -3.95 -0.29 -2.12 3.01 1.06
2008Q4 -6.59 -2.90 -4.75 1.65 -0.75
2009Q1 -8.18 -4.46 -6.32 -0.09 -2.63
2009Q2 -9.44 -5.70 -7.57 -1.94 -4.15
2009Q3 -9.92 -6.15 -8.04 -3.43 -5.04
2009Q4 -9.41 -5.61 -7.51 -3.88 -5.00
2010Q1 -8.80 -4.96 -6.88 -3.77 -4.69
2010Q2 -8.50 -4.63 -6.56 -3.45 -4.25
2010Q3 -7.82 -3.92 -5.87 -2.87 -3.65
2010Q4 -7.47 -3.53 -5.50 -2.50 -3.36
2011Q1 -7.25 -3.27 -5.26 -1.87 -3.02
2011Q2 -7.11 -3.09 -5.10 -1.48 -2.66
2011Q3 -7.08 -3.02 -5.05 -1.28 -2.48
2011Q4 -6.46 -2.35 -4.41 -1.08 -2.01
2012Q1 -5.96 -1.80 -3.88 -0.50 -1.58
2012Q2 -6.05 -1.84 -3.94 -0.47 -1.63
2012Q3 -5.71 -1.45 -3.58 -0.38 -1.45
2012Q4 -5.28 -0.96 -3.12 -0.11 -1.33
2013Q1 -5.29 -0.91 -3.10    
2013Q2          
2013Q3          
2013Q4          
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