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Abstract:
The Tequila Effect hypothesis states that the economic crisis that affected
several South American countries in 1995 was caused by an exogenous capital
flight triggered by the loss of confidence of foreign investors after the
collapse of the Mexican peso in December 1994. I analyze the recent Argentine
experience before and after the Mexican crisis and argue that the Tequila
Effect played an important role in the 1995 crisis. I model the Tequila Effect
in an optimizing, small, open economy, as a situation in which agents at time 0
learn that at some random future date foreign investors will pull their assets
out of the country. The model captures key features of the Argentine crisis of
1995: the decline in aggregate domestic spending and the outflow of capital
that began in December 1994; the credit crunch and interest rate hike of March
1995; the slow return of the real interest rate to its pre-crisis level, and
the protracted decline in output and investment that began in March 1995.
Full paper (510 KB PDF)
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Full paper (765 KB Postscript)
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