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International Finance Discussion Papers
The International Finance Discussion Papers logo links to the International Finance Discussion Papers home page News or Noise? An Analysis of Brazilian GDP Announcements
Rebeca de la Rocque Palis; Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos; Patrice Robitaille
2003-776  (August 2003, latest version April 2004)

Abstract:  Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.

Full paper, latest version (752 KB PDF)
Original version (291 KB PDF)

Keywords
Vintage data, preliminary data, final data, revision

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Last update: April 30, 2004