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International Finance Discussion Papers
The International Finance Discussion Papers logo links to the International Finance Discussion Papers home page Breaks in the Variability and Co-Movement of G-7 Economic Growth
Brian M. Doyle; Jon Faust
2003-786  (December)

Abstract:  This paper investigates breaks in the variability and co-movement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on co-movement, we test for changes in co-movement allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even for the United States and Canada, which have seen a tremendous increase in bilateral trade shares, and for the members of the euro area in the G-7.

Full paper (737 KB PDF)

international business cycles, economic integration

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Last update: December 29, 2003