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The Effects of Foreign Shocks When Interest Rates are at Zero**

Martin Bodenstein, Christopher J. Erceg, and Luca Guerrieri***

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://www.ssrn.com/.


Abstract:

In a two-country DSGE model, the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound for policy interest rates. This result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the United States. The duration of the liquidity trap is determined endogenously. Adverse foreign shocks can extend the duration of the liquidity trap, implying more contractionary effects for the home country; conversely, large positive shocks can prompt an early exit, implying effects that are closer to those when the zero bound constraint is not binding.

Keywords: Zero lower bound, spillover effects, DSGE models

JEL classification: F32, F41


1.  Introduction

For large and relatively closed economies such as the United States and the euro area, foreign shocks are often perceived as having small effects on domestic output. Thus, researchers, policymakers, and forecasters frequently abstract from the open economy dimension in analyzing business cycle fluctuations in large economies.1

The expanding literature that uses open economy DSGE models to analyze the transmission of shocks across countries appears to corroborate this view. Drawing on the two country real business cycle model of [Backus et al. 1992], [Baxter and Crucini 1995] show that a positive country-specific productivity shock in the foreign sector induces a small contraction in domestic output. Thus, accounting for positive comovement in output across countries requires substantial correlation in the underlying shocks. More recent analysis that incorporates nominal price rigidities and a wider set of shocks, including work by [Lubik and Schorfheide 2005] and [Adolfson et al. 2007], also finds that country-specific shocks abroad tend to have very small effects on home output.2

Although these results support the view that foreign shocks typically have a small impact on large economies such as the United States, a key qualification is that they are derived under the assumption that monetary policy has complete latitude to offset shocks by adjusting policy rates. A wide group of economies - including the United States and Japan - have been constrained from reducing policy rates for some time. In our analysis, the effects of foreign shocks on domestic output are greatly amplified by a prolonged liquidity trap, even for relatively closed economies.

We analyze the spillover effects of country-specific foreign shocks in a two country DSGE model that imposes the zero bound constraint on policy rates. The model incorporates nominal and real rigidities that have been found to be empirically relevant in both the closed and open economy DSGE literature, including sticky prices and wages, and habit persistence in consumption.3 Our benchmark simulations assume that only the home country is constrained by the zero lower bound, though we also conduct sensitivity analysis which allows for both economies to be constrained.

The model is calibrated based on data for the United States (the home country) and an aggregate of its trading partners. A foreign demand shock that reduces foreign output by 1 percent induces U.S. GDP to fall only around 0.3 percent in normal circumstances in which U.S. short-term interest rates decline as prescribed by a standard linear Taylor rule. With the United States in a liquidity trap lasting 10 quarters (our benchmark case), the same foreign shock causes U.S. output to fall 0.7 percent.

The foreign shock has a similar contractionary effect on home exports irrespective of whether domestic monetary policy is constrained: exports fall in response to lower foreign absorption, and because lower foreign policy rates cause the home real exchange rate to appreciate. With policy rates unconstrained, the impact on home output is cushioned by a robust expansion of private domestic demand, as monetary policy responds immediately to lower demand and inflation, and real rates fall at all maturities. By contrast, because home policy rates remain frozen for some time in a liquidity trap, the fall in expected inflation pushes up short-term real interest rates, implying a much smaller expansion in domestic demand than in the unconstrained case. If the liquidity trap is sufficiently prolonged, private demand can even fall.

An important feature of our modeling framework is the endogenous determination of the duration of the liquidity trap. In our simulations the exit date from the trap depends both on the underlying domestic shock that is assumed to generate the liquidity trap - a preference shock that depresses the natural real interest rate - and on the characteristics of the foreign demand shock. The effects of a foreign shock on domestic GDP are linear provided that the size of the shock is small. However, if foreign shocks are large enough to affect the duration of the liquidity trap, their effects become nonlinear. Intuitively, negative foreign shocks of larger magnitude extend the duration of the liquidity trap, implying more contractionary marginal effects; conversely, positive shocks can prompt an early exit, implying effects that are closer to those when the zero bound constraint is not binding.

We conduct sensitivity analysis on several dimensions, including to the conduct of domestic and foreign monetary policy, to the trade price elasticities, and to the nature of the shocks affecting the foreign economy. Our result that the effects of foreign shocks are greatly magnified in a liquidity trap does not hinge on our particular specification of the rule that home monetary policy follows after exiting the liquidity trap. If foreign GDP contracts 1 percent, the spillover effect to U.S. GDP remains in the range of 0.7 even under the assumption that monetary policy reacts very aggressively to inflation and/or the output gap.

When the zero bound is not binding, increasing the trade price elasticity of demand magnifies the decline of home real net exports caused by a foreign demand contraction. However, the spillover effects on home output are partly offset by a more vigorous reaction of domestic monetary policy. By contrast, in a liquidity trap, monetary policy is unable to compensate in such a manner, and the larger effects on real net exports translate into much greater effects on home output.

The magnitude of the spillover effects in our benchmark case depend on the nature of the foreign shocks. Foreign demand shocks exert larger effects on domestic exports and imports than foreign supply shocks, because their impact on the real exchange rate and foreign activity reinforce each other.4 For example, a negative taste shock abroad reduces foreign absorption, and causes the domestic exchange rate to appreciate. By contrast, near unit-root technology shocks, the typical source of fluctuations in open economy models, have comparatively small effects on domestic real net exports because they affect foreign activity and the real exchange rate in an offsetting manner.5 Thus, foreign demand shocks have larger effects on domestic output than foreign supply shocks even under normal conditions in which policy can react; but the disparity becomes much greater in a liquidity trap.

It might be expected that the spillover effects of foreign shocks would be further magnified if the foreign sector were also in a liquidity trap. However, our analysis shows that the effects of a given structural shock abroad are similar, irrespective of whether the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap or not. For example, although an adverse foreign demand shock causes foreign absorption to fall more when the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap, it also reduces the appreciation of the home real exchange rate since foreign long-term real interest rates fall by less. Analogously, the transmission of domestic shocks is hardly affected by whether the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap.

In related work, [Reifschneider and Williams 2000] argue that there is a significant increase in the volatility of output in a liquidity trap, but their methodology does not allow them to link this higher volatility to structural shocks. Other papers that are related to our analysis, but abstract from the open economy dimension, are [Eggertsson 2006] and [Christiano et al. 2009]. [Coenen and Wieland 2003] investigate the quantitative effects of exchange rate based policies in a model that is partly optimization-based but does not explore the spillover effects of foreign shocks and their dependence on different model parameters.6

2.  The Model

Apart from the explicit treatment of the zero-lower bound on policy rates, our two-country model is close to [Erceg et al. 2006] and [Erceg et al. 2008] who themselves build on [Christiano et al. 2005] and [Smets and Wouters 2003]. We focus on describing the home country as the setup for the foreign country is analogous. The calibration for the home country reflects key features of the United States.

2.1  Firms and Price Setting

Production of Domestic Intermediate Goods. There is a continuum of differentiated intermediate goods (indexed by $ i\in[0,1]$) in the home country, each of which is produced by a single monopolistically competitive firm. Firms charge different prices at home and abroad, i.e., they practice pricing to market. In the home market, firm $ i$ faces a demand function that varies inversely with its output price $ P_{Dt}(i)$ and directly with aggregate demand at home $ Y_{Dt}:$

$\displaystyle Y_{Dt}(i) =\left[ \frac{P_{Dt}(i) }{P_{Dt}}\right] ^{\frac{-\left( 1+\theta_{p}\right) }{\theta_{p}}}Y_{Dt},$ (1)

where $ \theta_{p} > 0$, and $ P_{Dt}$ is an aggregate price index defined below. Similarly, in the foreign market, firm $ i$ faces the demand function:

$\displaystyle X_{t}(i) =\left[ \frac{P^{*}_{Mt}(i)}{P^{*}_{Mt}}\right] ^{\frac{-\left( 1+\theta_{p}\right) }{\theta_{p}}}M^{*}_{t},$ (2)

where $ X_{t}(i)$ denotes the foreign quantity demanded of home good $ i$, $ P^{*}_{Mt}(i)$ denotes the price, denominated in foreign currency, that firm $ i$ sets in the foreign market, $ P^{*}_{Mt}$ is the foreign import price index, and $ M^{*}_{t}$ is aggregate foreign imports.

Each producer utilizes capital services $ K_{t}\left( i\right) $ and a labor index $ L_{t}\left( i\right) $ (defined below) to produce its respective output good. The production function has a constant-elasticity of substitution form:

$\displaystyle Y_{t}\left( i\right) =\left( \omega_{K}^{\frac{\rho}{1+\rho}}K_{t}(i)^{ \frac{1}{1+\rho}}+\omega_{L}{}^{\frac{\rho}{1+\rho}}(z_{t}L_{t}(i))^{ \frac {1}{1+\rho}}\right) ^{1+\rho},$ (3)

where $ z_{t}$ is a country-specific shock to the level of technology. Firms face perfectly competitive factor markets for hiring capital and labor.

The prices of intermediate goods are determined by Calvo-style staggered contracts, see [Calvo 1983]. Each period, a firm faces a constant probability, $ 1-\xi_{p}$, to reoptimize its price at home $ P_{Dt}(i)$ and probability of $ 1-\xi_{px}$ to reoptimize the price that it sets in the foreign country of $ P^{*}_{Mt}(i)$. These probabilities are independent across firms, time, and countries.

Production of the Domestic Output Index. A representative aggregator combines the differentiated intermediate products into a composite home-produced good $ Y_{Dt}$ according to

$\displaystyle Y_{Dt}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}Y_{Dt}\left( i\right) ^{\frac{1}{1+\theta_{p}} }di\right] ^{1+\theta_{p}}.$ (4)

The optimal bundle of goods minimizes the cost of producing $ Y_{Dt}$ taking the price of each intermediate good as given. A unit of the sectoral output index sells at the price $ P_{Dt}$:

$\displaystyle P_{Dt}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}P_{Dt}\left( i\right) ^{\frac{-1\,\,}{\theta _{p}\, }}di\right] ^{-\theta_{p}} .$ (5)

Similarly, a representative aggregator in the foreign economy combines the differentiated home products $ X_{t}(i)$ into a single index for foreign imports:

$\displaystyle M^{*}_{t}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}X_{t}\left( i\right) ^{\frac{1}{1+\theta_{p}} }di \right] ^{1+\theta_{p}},$ (6)

and sells $ M^{*}_{t}$ at price $ P^{*}_{Mt}$:

$\displaystyle P^{*}_{Mt}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}P^{*}_{Mt}\left( i\right) ^{\frac {-1\,\,}{\theta_{p}\, }}di\right] ^{-\theta_{p}}.$ (7)

Production of Consumption and Investment Goods. Assuming equal import content of consumption and investment, there is effectively one final good $ A_{t}$ that is used for consumption or investment, (i.e., $ A_{t} \equiv C_{t} + I_{t}$, allowing us to interpret $ A_{t}$ as private absorption). Domestically-produced goods and imported goods are combined to produce final goods $ A_{t}$ according to

$\displaystyle A_{t}=\left( \omega_{A}^{\frac{\rho_{A}}{1+\rho_{A}}}A_{Dt}^{\frac{1}{ 1+\rho_{A}}}+(1-\omega_{A})^{\frac{\rho_{A}}{1+\rho_{A}}}M_{t}^{\frac {1}{1+\rho_{A}}}\right) ^{1+\rho_{A}},$ (8)

where $ A_{Dt}$ denotes the distributor's demand for the domestically-produced good and $ M_{t}$ denotes the distributor's demand for imports. The quasi-share parameter $ \omega_{A}$ determines the degree of home bias in private absorption, and $ \rho_{A}$ determines the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods. Each representative distributor chooses a plan for $ A_{Dt}$ and $ M_{t}$ to minimize its costs of producing the final good $ A_{t}$ and sells $ A_{t}$ to households at a price $ P_{t}$. Accordingly, the prices of consumption and investment are equalized.

2.2  Households and Wage Setting

A continuum of monopolistically competitive households (indexed on the unit interval) supplies a differentiated labor service to the intermediate goods-producing sector. A representative labor aggregator combines the households' labor hours in the same proportions as firms would choose. This labor index $ L_{t}$ has the Dixit-Stiglitz form:

$\displaystyle L_{t}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}N_{t}\left( h\right) ^{\frac{1}{1+\theta_{w}} }dh\right] ^{1+\theta_{w}},$ (9)

where $ \theta_{w}>0$ and $ N_{t}(h)$ is hours worked by a typical member of household $ h$. The aggregator minimizes the cost of producing a given amount of the aggregate labor index, taking each household's wage rate $ W_{t}\left( h\right) $ as given. One unit of the labor index sells at the unit cost $ W_{t}$:

$\displaystyle W_{t}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}W_{t}{}\left( h\right) ^{\frac{-1}{\theta_{w}} }dh\right] ^{-\theta_{w}}.$ (10)

$ W_{t}$ is referred to as the aggregate wage index. The aggregator's demand for the labor services of household $ h$ satisfies

$\displaystyle N_{t}\left( h\right) =\left[ \frac{W_{t}\left( h\right) }{W_{t}}\right] ^{-\frac{1+\theta_{w}}{\theta_{w}}}L_{t}.$ (11)

The utility functional of a representative household $ h$ is:

$\displaystyle \widetilde{\mathbb{E}}_{t}\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}\beta^{j}\left\{ \frac {1}{1-\sigma}\left( C_{t+j}\left( h\right) -\varkappa\frac{C_{t+j-1}} {\zeta}-\nu_{ct}\right) ^{1-\sigma}\right.$  
$\displaystyle \left. + \frac{\chi_{0}}{1-\chi}(1-N_{t+j}\left( h\right) )^{1-\chi }+V\left( \frac{MB_{t+j+1}\left( h\right) }{P_{t+j}}\right) \right\} ,$ (12)

where the discount factor $ \beta$ satisfies $ \ 0<\beta<1.$ As in [Smets and Wouters 2003], we allow for the possibility of external habits. At date $ t$ household $ h$ cares about consumption relative to lagged per capita consumption, $ C_{t-1}$. The preference shock $ \nu_{ct}$ follows an exogenous first order process with a persistence parameter of $ \rho_{\nu}$. The parameter $ \zeta$ controls for population size. The household's period utility function depends on current leisure $ 1-N_{t}\left( h\right) $, the end-of-period real money balances, $ \frac{MB_{t+1}\left( h\right) }{P_{t}}$. The liquidity-service function $ V\left( \cdot\right) $ is increasing in real money balances at a decreasing rate up to a satiation level. Beyond the satiation level, utility from liquidity services is constant. With this specification of the utility function, the demand for real money balances is always positive regardless of the level of the nominal interest rate.7

The budget constraint of each household is given by:

\begin{displaymath}\begin{array}[c]{c} P_{t}C_{t}\left( h\right) +P_{t}I_{t}\left( h\right) + MB_{t+1}\left( h\right) -MB_{t}(h) +\frac{e_{t}P_{Bt}^{\ast}B_{Ft+1}(h)}{\phi_{bt}} -e_{t}B_{Ft}(h)\\ \\ =W_{t}\left( h\right) N_{t}\left( h\right) +\Gamma_{t}\left( h\right) -T_{t}\left( h\right) +R_{Kt}(1-\tau_{Kt})K_{t}(h)-P_{Dt}\phi_{It}(h).\\ \end{array}\end{displaymath} (13)

Final consumption and investment goods are purchased at a price $ P_{t}.$ Investment in physical capital augments the per capita capital stock $ K_{t+1}(h)$ according to a linear transition law of the form:

$\displaystyle K_{t+1}\left( h\right) =(1-\delta)K_{t}(h)+I_{t}(h),$ (14)

where $ \delta$ is the depreciation rate of capital. The term $ R_{Kt} (1-\tau_{Kt})K_{t}(h)$ in the budget constraint represents the proceeds to the household from renting capital to firms net of capital taxes.

Financial asset accumulation consists of increases in nominal money holdings $ MB_{t+1}\left( h\right) -MB_{t}\left( h\right) $ and the net acquisition of international bonds. Trade in international assets is restricted to a non-state contingent nominal bond. $ B_{Ft+1}(h)$ represents the quantity of the international bond purchased by household $ h$ at time $ t$ that pays one unit of foreign currency in the subsequent period. $ P_{Bt} ^{\ast}$ is the foreign currency price of the bond, and $ e_{t}$ is the nominal exchange rate expressed in units of home currency per unit of foreign currency. Following [Turnovsky 1985] households pay an intermediation fee $ \phi_{bt}$.8 The intermediation fee depends on the ratio of economy-wide holdings of net foreign assets to nominal output according to:

$\displaystyle \phi_{bt} = \exp\left( -\phi_{b} \left( \frac{e_{t} B_{Ft+1}}{P_{Dt} Y_{t} }\right) \right) .$ (15)

If the home economy has an overall net lender position, a household will earn a lower return on any holdings of foreign bonds. By contrast, if the economy has a net debtor position, a household will pay a higher return on any foreign debt.

Households earn labor income, $ W_{t}\left( h\right) N_{t}\left( h\right) $, lease capital to firms at the rental rate $ R_{Kt}$, and receive an aliquot share $ \Gamma_{t}\left( h\right) $ of the profits of all firms. Furthermore, they pay a lump-sum tax $ T_{t}(h)$. We follow [Christiano et al. 2005] in assuming that households bear a cost of changing the level of gross investment from the previous period, so that the acceleration in the capital stock is penalized:

$\displaystyle \phi_{It}(h) = \frac{1}{2}\phi_{I}\frac{\left( I_{t}(h)- I_{t-1}(h)\right) ^{2}}{ I_{t-1}(h)}.$ (16)

Households maximizes the utility functional (29) with respect to consumption, investment, (end-of-period) capital stock, money balances, and holdings of foreign bonds, subject to the labor demand function (11), budget constraint (13), and transition equation for capital (14). They also set nominal wages in staggered contracts that are analogous to the price contracts described above. In particular, each member of a household is allowed to re-optimize its wage contract with probability $ 1-\xi_{w}$.

2.3  Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Monetary policy follows an interest rate reaction function as suggested by [Taylor 1993]. However, when policy rates reach zero, we assume that no further actions are taken by the central bank. The notional rate that is dictated by the interest rate reaction function is denoted by $ i_{t}^{not}$, whereas the actual policy rate that is implemented is denoted by $ i_{t}$. The two differ only if the notional rate turns negative:

$\displaystyle i_{t}^{not}= \bar{i} + \gamma_{i} (i_{t-1}^{not} - \bar{i}) +(1-\gamma _{i})(\pi_{t} + \gamma_{\pi}(\pi_{t}-\bar{\pi})+\frac{\gamma_{y}}{4} y_{t}^{gap}),$ (17)

and the actual (short-term) policy interest rate satisfies

$\displaystyle i_{t} = max(0,i_{t}^{not}).$ (18)

The terms $ \bar{i}$ and $ \bar{\pi}$ are the steady-state values for the nominal interest rate and inflation, respectively. The inflation rate $ \pi_{t}$ is expressed as the logarithmic percentage change of the domestic price level, $ \pi_{t} = log(P_{Dt}/P_{Dt-1})$. The term $ y_{t}^{gap}$ denotes the output gap, given by the log difference between actual and potential output, where the latter is the level of output that would prevail in the absence of nominal rigidities. Notice that the coefficient $ \gamma_{y}$ is divided by four as the rule is expressed in terms of quarterly inflation and interest rates. The parameter $ \gamma_{i}$ allows for interest rate smoothing. 9

Government purchases are a constant fraction of output $ \bar{g}$ and they fall exclusively on the domestically-produced good. These purchases make no direct contribution to household utility. To finance its purchases, the government imposes a lump-sum tax on households that is adjusted so that the government's budget is balanced every period.

2.4  Resource Constraints

The home economy's aggregate resource constraint satisfies:

$\displaystyle Y_{Dt} = C_{Dt}+I_{Dt}+G_{t}+\phi_{It}.$ (19)

The composite domestically-produced good $ Y_{Dt}$, net of investment adjustment costs $ \phi_{It}$, is used to produce final consumption and investment goods ( $ A_{Dt} = C_{Dt} + I_{Dt}$), or directly to satisfy government demand. Moreover, since each individual intermediate goods producer can sell its output either at home or abroad, there are also a continuum of resource constraints that apply at the firm level.

2.5  Calibration of Parameters

The model is calibrated at a quarterly frequency. The values of key parameters are presented in Table 1 and reflect fairly standard calibration choices for the U.S. economy. We choose $ \omega_{A} = 0.15$ to be consistent with an import share of output of 15%. The domestic and foreign population levels, respectively $ \zeta$ and $ \zeta^{*}$, are set so that the home country constitutes 25 percent of world output. Balanced trade in steady state implies an import (or export) share of output of the foreign country of 5 percent. Because the foreign country is assumed to be identical to the home country except in its size, $ \omega _{A}^{*} = 0.05$. We set $ \rho_{A}=10$, so that the price elasticity of import demand is 1.1.

Nominal rigidities in prices and wages have an average duration of four quarters, determined by the parameters $ \xi_{p}=0.75$ and $ \xi _{w}=0.75$. Export price rigidities have a shorter duration of 2 quarters, as implied by the parameter $ \xi_{px}=0.5$. As noted above, monetary policy follows the Taylor rule, aside from allowing for interest rate smoothing and taking account of the zero lower bound constraint. Thus, the parameter $ \gamma_{\pi}$ on the inflation gap is 0.5 and the parameter $ \gamma_{y}$ on the output gap is also 0.5; we set the smoothing parameter $ \gamma_{i}$ to 0.7. The steady state real interest rate is set to 2% per year ( $ \beta= 0.995$). Given steady state inflation $ \bar{\pi}$ equal to zero, the implied steady state nominal interest rate is two percent. The values of remaining parameters are also fairly standard in the literature, and are summarized in Table 1.

3  Solution Method

All equilibrium conditions except the non-linear policy rule are linearized around the model's non-stochastic steady state. We solve the model using a shooting algorithm first proposed by [Laffargue 1990] and extended by [Boucekkine 1995] and [Juillard 1996], which in turn builds on the algorithm by [Fair and Taylor 1983]. This algorithm stacks all equations through time, which is equivalent to collapsing the Type I and II iterations in the Fair-Taylor shooting algorithm into one step. The size of the first-derivative used to implement a Newton-type recursion is kept manageable by exploiting the sparsity of the stacked system. The end point of the shooting algorithm imposes that the economy will eventually exit from the liquidity trap. 10

The solution from our algorithm is numerically equivalent to that obtained following the method described by [Eggertsson and Woodford 2003] and [Jung et al. 2005]. The solution proposed by these authors recognizes that the model is piecewise-linear. All model equations are linear when the zero bound constraint binds, and they are also linear, albeit modified, when the zero bound constraint does not bind. However, the time period for which the economy is at the zero bound is a non-linear function of the exogenous disturbances.11

Relative to [Eggertsson and Woodford 2003] and [Jung et al. 2005], our method deals easily with shocks whose effects build up over time and only eventually lead to zero short-term interest rates. Moreover, our algorithm extends naturally to deal with the case when both countries are constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.

4  Initial Baseline Path

Our principal goal is to compare the impact of foreign shocks on the home country when it faces a liquidity trap with the effects that occur when policy rates can be freely adjusted. In the former case, the impact of a foreign shock depends on the economic conditions that precipitated the liquidity trap. Intuitively, the effects of an adverse foreign shock against the backdrop of a recession-induced liquidity trap in the home country should depend on the expected severity of the recession, and the perceived duration of the liquidity trap. In a shallow recession in which interest rates are only constrained for a short period, the effects of the foreign shock would not differ substantially from the usual case in which rates could be cut immediately.12 By contrast, the effects of the foreign shock on the home country might be amplified substantially if it occurred against the backdrop of a steep recession in which policy rates were expected to be constrained from falling for a protracted period.

We use the term "initial baseline path" to describe the evolution of the economy that would prevail in the absence of the foreign shock. Given agents' full knowledge of the model, the initial baseline path depends on the underlying shocks that push the economy into a liquidity trap, including their magnitude and persistence, as these features play an important role in determining agents' perceptions about the duration of the liquidity trap.

Our analysis focuses on the effects of foreign shocks against the backdrop of an initial baseline path that is intended to capture a severe recession in the home country. This "severe recession" baseline is depicted in Figure 1 by the solid lines. It is generated by a preference shock $ \nu_{ct}$ that follows an autoregressive process with persistence parameter equal to 0.75. The shock reduces the home country's marginal utility of consumption. As the shock occurs exclusively in the home country, the foreign economy has latitude to offset much of the contractionary impact of the shock by reducing its policy rate.13

As shown in Figure 1 policy rates immediately fall to 0 (2 percentage points below their steady state value at annualized rates) and remain frozen at this level for ten quarters.14 Given that the shock drives inflation persistently below its steady state value and that nominal interest rates are constrained from falling by the zero bound, real rates increase substantially in the near term. This increase in real interest rates accounts in part for the substantial output decline, which peaks in magnitude at about 9 percent below its steady state value. Real interest rates decline in the longer term, helping the economy recover.15 This longer term decline also causes the home currency to depreciate in real terms, and the ensuing expansion of real net exports mitigates the effects of the shock on domestic output. However, the improvement in real net exports is delayed due to the zero bound constraint, since higher real interest rates limit the size of the depreciation of the home currency in the near-term.

For purposes of comparison, the figure also shows the effects of the same shocks in the case in which the home country's policy rates can be adjusted, i.e., ignoring the zero bound constraint. In this linear simulation, the home nominal interest rate falls more sharply, turns negative, and induces a decline in real interest rates in the short term. Hence, the fall in home output is smaller than in the benchmark framework in which the zero bound constraint is binding. The home output contraction is also mitigated by a more substantial improvement in real net exports. Given that real interest rates fall very quickly, the real depreciation is considerably larger and more front-loaded, contributing to a more rapid improvement in real net exports.

5  International Transmission at the Zero Bound

We turn to assessing the impact of a negative foreign consumption preference shock $ \nu^{*}_{ct}$ when the home country faces a liquidity trap. The foreign shock is scaled to induce a 1 percent reduction in foreign output relative to the initial baseline when it occurs against the backdrop of the severe recession scenario in Figure 1. The size of the foreign shock is small enough that the duration of the liquidity trap in the home country remains at ten quarters.

Figure 2 shows the effects of the foreign shock abroad, while Figure 3 reports the effects on the home country. The solid lines show the responses when the zero bound constraint is imposed on home policy rates, while the dashed lines report the responses to the same shock when the zero lower bound is ignored. To be specific, the responses in Figures 2 and 3 are derived from a simulation that adds both the adverse domestic taste shock from Figure 1 and the foreign taste shock, and then subtracts the impulse response functions associated with the domestic taste shock alone.16 Thus, all variables are measured as deviations from the baseline path shown in Figure 1.

As shown in Figure 2 the preference shock leads to a contraction in foreign output. Foreign policy rates are cut. As real rates also drop, investment is stimulated. Lower real rates contribute to a real exchange rate depreciation that boosts foreign exports. Perhaps surprisingly, whether the home country is at the zero lower bound or not has minimal implications for the foreign responses. This reflects that there are offsetting effects on the exports of the foreign country that arise from the responses of home activity and relative prices, as more fully discussed below.

By contrast, the effects of the foreign demand shock on the home country, shown in Figure 3, are strikingly different whether the zero lower bound is imposed or not. Although the foreign shock has nearly the same effect on foreign output across the two cases, the effects on home output are more than twice as large when the zero bound constraint is imposed.17 In either case home real net exports contract because foreign absorption falls and the home real exchange rate appreciates. However, in a liquidity trap, the decline in home export demand causes a fall in the marginal cost of production and inflation that is not accompanied by lower policy rates. The zero bound constraint keeps nominal rates from declining for ten quarters. Real rates rise sharply in the short run, even though they fall at longer horizons. Consequently, domestic absorption does not expand as much as when policy rates can be cut immediately. If the initial recession were more pronounced, private absorption could even fall, as shown below. With net exports falling and with domestic absorption not filling the gap, output falls by nearly as much in the home country as abroad.18

5.1  Alternative Initial Conditions and Monetary Policy

The analysis so far has been based on one particular choice of the size of the underlying baseline shock and the size of the additional foreign shock. Sensitivity to these values and to alternative monetary policy rules is examined below.

Alternative Initial Baseline Paths

In Figure 4, we change the assumptions concerning the initial domestic recession by increasing its persistence. The underlying initial domestic preference shock $ \nu_{ct}$ is now assumed to follow an autoregressive process of order one with persistence parameter equal to 0.9 instead of 0.75. With this prolonged recession, the liquidity trap is initially expected to last 16 quarters, instead of the 10 quarters considered previously. The figure compares the effects of the same additional foreign consumption shock with the liquidity trap lasting 10 quarters and with the trap lasting 16 quarters. When the duration of the liquidity trap is extended, the rise in short-term real interest rate at home is so large as to generate a initial drop in absorption, thus widening the fall in home output. The analysis that follows traces more systematically how the duration of the liquidity trap affects the spillover of foreign shocks.

In Figure 5, we consider the impact of the same foreign consumption shock $ \nu^{*}_{ct}$ under different initial baseline paths and policy rules. For each baseline path, we choose the size of the domestic shock to ensure that the zero lower bound will bind for the number of quarters in the figure's abscissae. We calculate the spillover effects of the foreign shock $ \nu^{*}_{ct}$ as the ratio of the shock's effects on home GDP (expressed in deviation from the baseline path) to the effects on foreign GDP (also expressed in deviation from the baseline path). The figure's ordinates show an average of these spillover effects for the first four quarters.

Focusing first on the results for the benchmark Taylor rule, the same rule used for Figures 1 to 3, the spillover effects become larger as the number of periods spent at the zero lower bound increases. Intuitively, the longer the policy rates are constrained from adjusting, the higher is the increase in the home real interest rates stemming from the contractionary foreign demand shock. As real interest rates rise more, they progressively hinder domestic absorption from cushioning the contraction in home GDP that is caused by the fall in net exports. When policy rates in the home economy are expected to be constrained for longer than two years, the spillover effects from a small foreign consumption shock more than double relative to the unconstrained case.

The figure also shows the same measure of spillover effects under alternative interest rate rules. Both rules leave the basic form of reaction function described in Equation (17) unchanged. However, the rule that is labeled "more aggressive on inflation" doubles the elasticity with respect to inflation $ \gamma_{\pi}$ from 1.5 to 3, while the rule that is labeled "more aggressive on output gap" uses an elasticity with respect to the output gap $ \gamma_{y}$ equal to 4 instead of 0.5. When the baseline conditions lead to a higher number of periods spent at the zero lower bound, both alternative rules imply a substantial increase in the spillover effects of the foreign consumption shock, confirming that our results do not hinge on the specific weights in the policy rule.

Alternative Foreign Consumption Shocks

The spillover effects shown in Figure 5 abstract from non-linear dynamics that are associated with changes in the number of periods for which the zero lower bound is expected to bind. As long as the foreign consumption shock does not affect the duration of the liquidity trap, the effects of the shock are linear in the size of its innovation. However, there is a size of the innovation above which the duration of the liquidity trap is extended, thus decoupling the marginal and average effects of shocks. Furthermore, the duration of the liquidity trap is a nonlinear function of the size of the innovations.19

These properties are illustrated in Figure 6 using the same baseline path as in Figure 1. Figure 6shows the effects of progressively larger foreign shocks on the duration of the liquidity trap (upper panel), as well as the spillover effect to the home country. The magnitude of the foreign shock is measured by the change in foreign GDP relative to the baseline path (on average over the first four quarters).

We first consider the case of the benchmark Taylor rule (the solid lines). If the foreign shock is sufficiently small, the number of periods at the zero lower bound does not change relative to the initial baseline and remains at 10 quarters, as reported in the upper panel. Then, the spillover effect shown in the lower panel of Figure 6 is roughly 3/4, the same magnitude as in Figure 5 when the trap lasts 10 quarters. The spillover effects are linear in the size of the shock and remain 3/4 as long as the additional shock does not vary the duration of the liquidity trap. Hence, within that range, the marginal and average effects of the foreign shock coincide.

Once the magnitude of the foreign shocks is sufficiently large, the shocks can affect the duration of the liquidity trap, as shown in the top panel. As negative foreign shocks prolong the time spent at the zero lower bound, the spillover effects become larger. Conversely, larger and larger expansionary shocks abroad can shorten the time for which the zero lower bound constraint binds at home, and thus reduce the spillover effects. However, even shocks that are sufficiently large to push the economy out of the liquidity trap cause spillovers that are elevated relative to the case when the zero bound does not bind initially (the latter case is shown in the bottom right panel).20 The reason is that the average effect of the shock differs from the shock's marginal effect. The latter falls below the former and the two will only coincide again asymptotically.

We now turn to comparing the effects of the foreign shocks under alternative monetary policy rules. For the given initial baseline shock, the rules that are more aggressive on inflation or the output gap tend to increase the duration of the liquidity trap although they dampen the contraction of the economy. Intuitively, more aggressive rules call for a more sustained fall in the interest rate in reaction to a deflationary shock, and may extend the number of periods spent at the zero lower bound. For the specific rules chosen, the benchmark Taylor rule delivers larger marginal spillover effects when the foreign shock is too small to affect the number of periods spent at the zero lower bound, as shown in the bottom panel.

The top panel of Figure 6 also shows that different rules imply different threshold sizes for shocks to influence the duration of the liquidity trap. The rule that is more aggressive on inflation requires larger foreign expansionary shocks to reduce the home economy's time spent at the zero lower bound.

5.2  Alternative Trade Elasticities

The value of the import price elasticity of demand is an important determinant of the duration of a liquidity trap and the spillover effects of country-specific shocks. When the zero bound is not binding, increasing the trade price elasticity of demand magnifies the decline of home real net exports caused by a foreign demand contraction. The spillover effects on home output are partly offset by a more vigorous reaction of domestic monetary policy. However, in a liquidity trap, monetary policy is unable to compensate in such a manner, and the larger effects on real net exports translate into greater effects on home output.

Figure 7 shows how the spillover effects of a foreign consumption shock are affected by a higher elasticity, equal to 1.5 versus 1.1 in our original calibration, or a lower elasticity, equal to 0.75. Away from the zero lower bound, the linearization of the model ensures that spillover effects are unrelated to the size of shocks. The figure's bottom right panel, shows that when the policy rule is unconstrained, a higher elasticity increases the spillover effects. The higher elasticity reduces the responsiveness of exchange rates to country-specific shocks. However, the increased sensitivity to movements in relative import prices more than offsets the decreased volatility of exchange rates. Accordingly, with the higher elasticity, home country net exports drop by more in response to a contractionary foreign consumption shock, leading to a larger fall in home GDP.

The figure's bottom left and top panels consider instead how the spillover effects are influenced by the size of the foreign shock against the backdrop of the same domestic recession considered above. The top panel of Figure 7 shows that the higher the trade elasticity the smaller is the size of foreign shocks that can lift the home economy out of the liquidity trap. The lower panel confirms that the zero lower bound constraint magnifies the spillover effects regardless of the elasticity chosen. However, the higher the trade price elasticity of demand, the more pronounced is the magnification.

5.3  A Foreign Technology Shock

Near unit-root technology shocks are the typical source of fluctuations in open economy models. However, the spillover effects of country-specific technology shocks are quite small and remain so even in a liquidity trap. The basic reason is that lower foreign activity retards the demand for home exports, but this effect is counterbalanced by a depreciation of the home real exchange rate, which boosts home exports. Under our benchmark calibration, the exchange rate channel initially dominates, implying a rise in home real net exports, and a small and short-lived expansion in home GDP; the effects when the home country is constrained by the zero lower bound aren't noticeably different.

It is possible for a negative foreign technology shock to induce a contraction of home GDP if domestic and foreign absorption respond more quickly to the foreign shock. This is illustrated in Figure 8, which shows the effects of a foreign technology shock $ z_{t}^{*}$ under a model calibration which eliminates consumption habits and investment adjustment costs.21 In the absence of these real rigidities, foreign absorption falls more quickly, inducing home real exports to contract rapidly. If interest rates can't fall immediately to counteract the export contraction - as in the liquidity trap case - then home output declines; nevertheless, the fall in home GDP is only a tiny fraction of that abroad.

5.4  Both Countries in a Liquidity Trap

We showed that when one country is in a liquidity trap, the spillover effects of foreign shocks are greatly amplified. We next consider whether or not these spillover effects reverberate back and forth when both countries are mired a liquidity trap, further exacerbating the domestic spillovers of a foreign shock.

Figure 9 illustrates the effects of a foreign consumption preference shock under three distinct initial baseline paths: both countries are at the zero bound for 10 quarters (the dotted line), only the home country is at the zero bound for 10 quarters (the solid line), and no country is at the zero bound (the dashed line). In each case, the baseline paths were constructed using different domestic consumption shocks.

The size of the foreign consumption shock is unchanged across the three scenarios and is set to induce a 1% decline of foreign GDP if neither country is at the zero bound. Unsurprisingly, the effects of the foreign consumption shock on foreign GDP are greatly amplified if the foreign country is constrained by the zero bound. The maximum decline of foreign GDP is about 3.5% relative to baseline if the zero bound binds (dotted line) but only 1 if the policy rate is unconstrained.

However, the the spillover effects on the home country of the foreign shock are little changed irrespective of whether the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap, so the dotted and solid lines almost overlap. Although an adverse foreign demand shock causes foreign absorption to fall more when the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap, it also reduces the appreciation of the home real exchange rate since foreign long-term real interest rates fall by less. As the relative price movement offsets the movement in foreign activity, home exports and GDP are little varied.

The apparent irrelevance of the foreign zero lower bound for the spillover effects on the home country is predicated on the particular calibration of the trade price elasticity. With a lower trade elasticity, the activity channel dominates the relative price channel. With real net exports responding more vigorously, spillover effects on home GDP are larger when the foreign economy is at the zero lower bound, as illustrated in Figure 10. Each line in the figure is constructed by subtracting the impulse responses to a foreign consumption shock in the case when both countries are at the zero bound from those which obtain when only the home country is at the zero bound. This difference captures the reverberation effects on the home country that are associated with the liquidity trap in the foreign country.22

Figure 10 considers two cases: the benchmark elasticity equal to 1.1 (the solid lines), and a case in which the elasticity is equal to 0.5. When the foreign economy is also at the zero lower bound, lower foreign activity causes a bigger contraction in home exports, which exacerbates the contraction in home GDP relative to the case when only the home economy is at the zero lower bound.23

6  Conclusions

When monetary policy is unconstrained, it can cushion the impact of foreign disturbances. By contrast, in a liquidity trap, monetary policy cannot crowd in domestic demand as effectively, and the spillover effects of foreign shocks can be magnified greatly. The amplification of idiosyncratic foreign shocks depends both on the duration of the liquidity trap and the size of the foreign shock, as well as on key structural features such as the trade price elasticity.

Our model results allay fears that a global liquidity trap is likely to worsen the spillover effects of a given-size country-specific shock, relative to the case in which the trap is limited to one region. Although demand shocks abroad cause foreign activity to fall more sharply when the foreign economy is also in a liquidity trap, the home real exchange rate appreciates less, so that home exports are roughly unaffected. Hence, the spillover effects on the home GDP are very similar to those when only the home country is in a liquidity trap.

Our analysis suggests that the benefits of policy coordination across countries are enhanced in a liquidity trap. In fact, although coordinated policy actions by major central banks are rare when policy rates are unconstrained, coordination has become frequent since 2008, when many economies became constrained by the zero lower bound. In future research, it will be useful to quantify the benefits from such coordination.

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Table 1. Calibration*

ParameterDetermines:
$ \beta= 0.995 $s.s. real interest rate = 2% per year
$ \chi_{0} $leisure's share of time = 1/2
$ \sigma= 2$intertemporal substitution elast. 1/2
$ \rho= -2$capital-labor substitution elast. = 1/2
$ \omega_{A} = 0.15$import share of output = 15%
$ \zeta= 1$population size
$ \kappa= 0.8 $consumption habits
$ \theta_{w} = 0.1$wage markup = 10%
$ \xi_{p} = 0.75 $price contract expected duration
= 4 quarters
$ \xi_{px} = 0.5 $export price contract expected duration
= 2 quarters
$ \gamma_{i} = 0.7 $monetary policy's weight on
lagged interest rate
$ \gamma_{y} = 0.5 $monetary policy's weight on
output gap
$ \delta= 0.025$depreciation rate = 10% per year
$ \chi= 10 $labor supply elasticity = 1/5
$ \phi_{b} = 0.001 $interest elasticity of foreign assets
$ \rho_{A} = 10$long-run import price elasticity = 1.1
$ \omega_{A}^{*} = 0.05$foreign import share of output = 5%
$ \zeta^{*} = 3$foreign population size
$ \phi_{I} = 3$investment adjustment costs
$ \theta_{p} = 0.1$domestic/export price markup = 10%
$ \xi_{w} = 0.75 $wage contract expected duration
= 4 quarters
$ \tau_{k} = 0$capital tax rate
$ \gamma_{\pi} = 0.5 $monetary policy's weight on
inflation

$ ^{*}$ Parameter values for the foreign country are chosen identical to their home country counterparts except for the population size $ \zeta^{*}$ and the import share $ \omega_{A}^{*}$.

Figure 1. Severe Domestic Recession Scenario (Initial Baseline Path)

Data for Figure 1 immediately follows.

Data for Figure 1 (Solid Line)

PeriodHome AbsorptionHome Policy RateHome InflationHome Real Interest RateHome GDPReal Exchange Rate
1-7.2502 0 -5.6052 6.4589 -5.5356 3.2986
2-10.7453 0 -4.4488 4.9016 -8.0483 4.389
3-11.8235 0 -2.8916 3.3756 -8.6796 5.1375
4-11.443 0 -1.3655 2.0863 -8.2177 5.5329
5-10.269 0 -0.0762 1.1033 -7.1935 5.6186
6-8.7465 0 0.9067 0.4204 -5.9519 5.4587
7-7.1589 0 1.5897 -0.0068 -4.706 5.1198
8-5.674 0 2.0168 -0.2366 -3.5765 4.662
9-4.379 0 2.2467 -0.328 -2.6216 4.1336
10-3.307 0 2.338 -0.3328 -1.8577 3.5706
11-2.4553 0.2001 2.3428 -0.0922 -1.2741 2.9968
12-1.796 0.6586 2.3023 0.4243 -0.8384 2.4764
13-1.2893 0.9846 2.2443 0.8109 -0.5104 2.0807
14-0.9027 1.2093 2.1837 1.0913 -0.2635 1.7797
15-0.6099 1.3597 2.128 1.2894 -0.0788 1.5485
16-0.3904 1.4579 2.0804 1.4262 0.0575 1.3679
17-0.2276 1.5203 2.0418 1.5185 0.1555 1.2232
18-0.1088 1.5594 2.0119 1.5795 0.2235 1.1035
19-0.0237 1.5839 1.99 1.619 0.2679 1.0012
200.0356 1.5996 1.9749 1.6443 0.2937 0.9106
210.0754 1.6108 1.9654 1.6603 0.3052 0.828
220.1006 1.62 1.9606 1.6706 0.3057 0.7506
230.1151 1.6287 1.9594 1.6777 0.298 0.6768
240.1219 1.638 1.961 1.6833 0.2843 0.6056
250.1233 1.6483 1.9648 1.6883 0.2665 0.5363
260.1212 1.6597 1.97 1.6934 0.246 0.4686
270.1169 1.6722 1.9763 1.6991 0.2239 0.4023
280.1113 1.6858 1.9832 1.7054 0.2012 0.3375
290.1054 1.7001 1.9904 1.7125 0.1784 0.2743
300.0996 1.7151 1.9976 1.7204 0.1562 0.2128
310.0943 1.7304 2.0047 1.729 0.1349 0.1531
320.0897 1.7459 2.0115 1.7381 0.1147 0.0954
330.0861 1.7614 2.0178 1.7478 0.0958 0.0397
340.0834 1.7768 2.0237 1.7578 0.0784 -0.0138
350.0817 1.7919 2.029 1.7681 0.0624 -0.065
360.0809 1.8065 2.0338 1.7786 0.048 -0.1139
370.0811 1.8207 2.0379 1.7892 0.0349 -0.1604
380.0821 1.8342 2.0415 1.7997 0.0233 -0.2046
390.0839 1.8472 2.0445 1.8102 0.013 -0.2464
400.0863 1.8594 2.047 1.8205 0.0039 -0.2858

Data for Figure 1 (Dashed Line)

PeriodHome AbsorptionHome Policy RateHome InflationHome Real Interest RateHome GDPReal Exchange Rate
1-5.6136 -0.9108 -3.2884 3.6714 -3.5767 8.904
2-8.1161 -2.6112 -2.5721 1.0293 -5.0738 9.3014
3-8.7465 -3.3706 -1.6304 -0.6341 -5.3457 9.0921
4-8.3311 -3.4625 -0.7264 -1.4808 -4.9575 8.4956
5-7.3996 -3.1359 0.0284 -1.7322 -4.2637 7.6962
6-6.2762 -2.5892 0.6063 -1.5998 -3.4751 6.8289
7-5.1476 -1.9635 1.0206 -1.2544 -2.7084 5.9822
8-4.1123 -1.3484 1.301 -0.8188 -2.0213 5.2066
9-3.2135 -0.7942 1.4805 -0.3728 -1.4363 4.5255
10-2.4627 -0.3227 1.5887 0.0377 -0.9564 3.9442
11-1.8533 0.0622 1.6497 0.3907 -0.5744 3.457
12-1.3702 0.3667 1.6815 0.6797 -0.2784 3.0527
13-0.9951 0.6022 1.697 0.9074 -0.0555 2.718
14-0.7096 0.7817 1.7048 1.0813 0.107 2.4397
15-0.4966 0.9174 1.7104 1.2105 0.2206 2.2056
16-0.3412 1.0203 1.7169 1.3045 0.295 2.0054
17-0.2307 1.0994 1.7259 1.3715 0.3388 1.8309
18-0.1545 1.1618 1.7379 1.4188 0.3589 1.6752
19-0.1043 1.2128 1.753 1.4521 0.3611 1.5334
20-0.0732 1.2565 1.7707 1.476 0.35 1.4018
21-0.0558 1.2955 1.7905 1.4938 0.3295 1.2778
22-0.0478 1.3318 1.8118 1.508 0.3025 1.1595
23-0.0462 1.3666 1.8339 1.5203 0.2715 1.0458
24-0.0484 1.4005 1.8564 1.5319 0.2383 0.9361
25-0.0525 1.4339 1.8786 1.5436 0.2044 0.8299
26-0.0574 1.467 1.9004 1.5558 0.1708 0.7271
27-0.0619 1.4997 1.9212 1.5688 0.1384 0.6277
28-0.0656 1.532 1.941 1.5826 0.1078 0.5317
29-0.0679 1.5637 1.9595 1.5972 0.0793 0.4393
30-0.0686 1.5947 1.9766 1.6125 0.0532 0.3506
31-0.0677 1.6247 1.9922 1.6284 0.0296 0.2657
32-0.0651 1.6537 2.0064 1.6448 0.0085 0.1847
33-0.061 1.6816 2.019 1.6614 -0.01 0.1076
34-0.0554 1.7081 2.0302 1.6782 -0.0262 0.0346
35-0.0485 1.7334 2.04 1.695 -0.0401 -0.0345
36-0.0404 1.7572 2.0484 1.7117 -0.0518 -0.0995
37-0.0313 1.7796 2.0555 1.7281 -0.0615 -0.1606
38-0.0215 1.8005 2.0615 1.7443 -0.0695 -0.2178
39-0.011 1.8201 2.0663 1.76 -0.0758 -0.2713
40-0.0001 1.8382 2.0701 1.7752 -0.0806 -0.3212

Figure 2. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Domestic Recession

Data for Figure 2 immediately follows.

Data for Figure 2 (Solid Line)

PeriodForeign GDPForeign Policy RateForeign ConsumptionForeign InflationForeign InvestmentForeign Exports
1-0.5465 -0.6775 -1.5778 -1.3234 1.2081 2.0773
2-0.8459 -1.082 -2.6296 -1.2377 2.3168 3.1869
3-0.9736 -1.3104 -3.2916 -1.1148 3.2619 3.7433
4-0.9896 -1.4162 -3.6674 -0.987 4.0122 3.9793
5-0.9384 -1.4389 -3.8352 -0.871 4.5614 4.029
6-0.8507 -1.4087 -3.8538 -0.7731 4.9202 3.9714
7-0.7465 -1.3485 -3.7672 -0.6941 5.1091 3.8534
8-0.6386 -1.2742 -3.6082 -0.6319 5.1538 3.7034
9-0.5343 -1.1962 -3.4012 -0.5833 5.0805 3.5378
10-0.4377 -1.1209 -3.1645 -0.545 4.9148 3.3671
11-0.3504 -1.0512 -2.9116 -0.514 4.6793 3.1982
12-0.273 -0.9885 -2.6524 -0.488 4.3938 3.0364
13-0.2058 -0.9327 -2.3942 -0.4653 4.0749 2.878
14-0.1483 -0.8833 -2.1424 -0.4446 3.7363 2.7229
15-0.0997 -0.8394 -1.9005 -0.4251 3.3888 2.5717
16-0.0592 -0.7999 -1.6711 -0.406 3.0408 2.425
17-0.0259 -0.764 -1.4558 -0.3871 2.699 2.2832
180.001 -0.7309 -1.2555 -0.3683 2.3681 2.1465
190.0223 -0.6999 -1.0706 -0.3494 2.0518 2.0148
200.0386 -0.6705 -0.9011 -0.3305 1.7525 1.8878
210.0508 -0.6423 -0.7467 -0.3116 1.4718 1.7654
220.0593 -0.6151 -0.6068 -0.2929 1.2107 1.6474
230.0648 -0.5887 -0.4808 -0.2744 0.9697 1.5335
240.0677 -0.563 -0.368 -0.2562 0.7487 1.4236
250.0685 -0.5378 -0.2674 -0.2383 0.5475 1.3175
260.0676 -0.5132 -0.1782 -0.221 0.3655 1.2151
270.0653 -0.4892 -0.0996 -0.2041 0.202 1.1164
280.062 -0.4657 -0.0307 -0.1878 0.0562 1.0214
290.058 -0.4427 0.0293 -0.1722 -0.0729 0.9298
300.0533 -0.4203 0.0812 -0.1572 -0.1863 0.8419
310.0484 -0.3985 0.1258 -0.1429 -0.2851 0.7574
320.0432 -0.3774 0.1637 -0.1293 -0.3702 0.6765
330.038 -0.3569 0.1957 -0.1164 -0.4428 0.599
340.0329 -0.337 0.2223 -0.1043 -0.5038 0.525
350.0279 -0.3178 0.2442 -0.0929 -0.5542 0.4544
360.0231 -0.2993 0.2618 -0.0822 -0.5951 0.3872
370.0186 -0.2816 0.2756 -0.0722 -0.6273 0.3234
380.0144 -0.2645 0.2862 -0.0629 -0.6517 0.2628
390.0106 -0.2482 0.2938 -0.0543 -0.669 0.2054
400.007 -0.2326 0.2989 -0.0463 -0.6802 0.1511

Data for Figure 2 (Dashed Line)

PeriodForeign GDPForeign Policy RateForeign ConsumptionForeign InflationForeign InvestmentForeign Exports
1-0.5561 -0.6807 -1.5764 -1.3273 1.2143 1.9809
2-0.8539 -1.086 -2.6271 -1.239 2.3273 3.1197
3-0.9769 -1.3134 -3.2883 -1.1141 3.2742 3.7391
4-0.9888 -1.4175 -3.6637 -0.9855 4.0245 4.0318
5-0.9349 -1.4386 -3.8315 -0.8695 4.5729 4.1178
6-0.8458 -1.4075 -3.8501 -0.7723 4.9307 4.0745
7-0.7414 -1.3469 -3.7636 -0.6942 5.1191 3.9529
8-0.6338 -1.2727 -3.6046 -0.6329 5.1638 3.7869
9-0.53 -1.1954 -3.3976 -0.585 5.0914 3.5984
10-0.4339 -1.1207 -3.1608 -0.5473 4.927 3.4017
11-0.3472 -1.0519 -2.9076 -0.5167 4.6933 3.2055
12-0.2706 -0.9899 -2.6482 -0.491 4.4098 3.0149
13-0.2039 -0.9348 -2.3898 -0.4685 4.0928 2.8326
14-0.1466 -0.886 -2.1377 -0.4478 3.7558 2.6595
15-0.098 -0.8424 -1.8957 -0.4282 3.4095 2.4958
16-0.0574 -0.8032 -1.6661 -0.4091 3.0623 2.3413
17-0.0239 -0.7674 -1.4507 -0.3903 2.7207 2.1951
180.0031 -0.7344 -1.2504 -0.3714 2.3897 2.0566
190.0245 -0.7034 -1.0655 -0.3525 2.0728 1.925
200.041 -0.6741 -0.896 -0.3337 1.7726 1.7997
210.0531 -0.6459 -0.7416 -0.3149 1.4908 1.6799
220.0617 -0.6188 -0.6018 -0.2961 1.2285 1.5653
230.0671 -0.5924 -0.4759 -0.2776 0.986 1.4554
240.07 -0.5667 -0.3632 -0.2594 0.7636 1.3499
250.0707 -0.5415 -0.2627 -0.2416 0.5608 1.2484
260.0696 -0.5169 -0.1736 -0.2241 0.3773 1.1508
270.0673 -0.4929 -0.0952 -0.2072 0.2123 1.057
280.0638 -0.4694 -0.0264 -0.1909 0.0649 0.9668
290.0596 -0.4464 0.0334 -0.1751 -0.0657 0.8801
300.0549 -0.4239 0.0852 -0.16 -0.1805 0.7969
310.0497 -0.4021 0.1296 -0.1456 -0.2806 0.7171
320.0445 -0.3809 0.1674 -0.1319 -0.367 0.6406
330.0391 -0.3603 0.1992 -0.1189 -0.4408 0.5674
340.0338 -0.3403 0.2256 -0.1067 -0.5029 0.4975
350.0287 -0.321 0.2473 -0.0951 -0.5544 0.4308
360.0238 -0.3025 0.2647 -0.0843 -0.5962 0.3672
370.0192 -0.2846 0.2784 -0.0742 -0.6292 0.3068
380.0149 -0.2674 0.2888 -0.0648 -0.6543 0.2494
390.0109 -0.251 0.2962 -0.056 -0.6724 0.1949
400.0072 -0.2352 0.3012 -0.048 -0.6841 0.1434

Figure 3. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Domestic Recession

Data for Figure 3 immediately follows.

Data for Figure 3 (Soild Line)

PeriodHome GDPHome Policy RateHome AbsorptionHome InflationHome ExportsHome Real Interest RateReal Exchange RateHome Trade Balance
1-0.5185 0 0.0274 -0.6346 -2.4717 0.1305 -3.525 -0.4552
2-0.7081 0 0.1187 -0.5219 -3.703 0.0952 -3.5346 -0.5204
3-0.7226 0 0.2374 -0.3809 -4.2568 0.0629 -3.4476 -0.5478
4-0.6494 0 0.3599 -0.2517 -4.4314 0.0375 -3.3039 -0.5512
5-0.5382 0 0.4723 -0.1498 -4.3918 0.0195 -3.1302 -0.5397
6-0.4168 0 0.5676 -0.078 -4.232 0.0083 -2.9443 -0.5193
7-0.3004 0 0.6429 -0.0332 -4.0078 0.0026 -2.7574 -0.4941
8-0.1963 0 0.6985 -0.0104 -3.7528 0.001 -2.5757 -0.4664
9-0.1073 0 0.7357 -0.0039 -3.4873 0.0022 -2.4022 -0.438
10-0.0342 0 0.7568 -0.0088 -3.2243 0.0052 -2.2373 -0.4095
110.0233 -0.1453 0.7638 -0.0209 -2.9728 -0.0271 -2.0804 -0.3817
120.0626 -0.1191 0.7559 -0.0368 -2.7417 -0.0166 -1.9669 -0.358
130.0903 -0.1053 0.7388 -0.0528 -2.5256 -0.0096 -1.8528 -0.3345
140.1104 -0.1003 0.7159 -0.067 -2.3231 -0.0054 -1.7406 -0.3118
150.125 -0.1011 0.6897 -0.0789 -2.1342 -0.0032 -1.6315 -0.2901
160.1358 -0.1054 0.6618 -0.0884 -1.9588 -0.0024 -1.5265 -0.2696
170.1436 -0.1115 0.6331 -0.0958 -1.7966 -0.0026 -1.4259 -0.2504
180.149 -0.1181 0.6042 -0.1011 -1.6467 -0.0033 -1.3297 -0.2323
190.1526 -0.1247 0.5753 -0.1049 -1.5085 -0.0044 -1.2379 -0.2154
200.1545 -0.1306 0.5468 -0.1072 -1.3808 -0.0056 -1.1501 -0.1996
210.1552 -0.1358 0.5186 -0.1083 -1.2628 -0.0068 -1.0662 -0.1847
220.1547 -0.1401 0.4908 -0.1084 -1.1534 -0.0081 -0.9859 -0.1707
230.1534 -0.1434 0.4636 -0.1078 -1.0518 -0.0092 -0.909 -0.1575
240.1512 -0.1458 0.4369 -0.1064 -0.9571 -0.0103 -0.8353 -0.145
250.1485 -0.1474 0.4108 -0.1045 -0.8686 -0.0113 -0.7647 -0.1332
260.1452 -0.1482 0.3853 -0.1021 -0.7858 -0.0122 -0.6971 -0.1221
270.1414 -0.1483 0.3604 -0.0993 -0.708 -0.013 -0.6323 -0.1115
280.1374 -0.1478 0.3361 -0.0962 -0.6349 -0.0137 -0.5702 -0.1014
290.1331 -0.1467 0.3126 -0.0928 -0.566 -0.0144 -0.5108 -0.0918
300.1286 -0.1451 0.2897 -0.0893 -0.5009 -0.0149 -0.454 -0.0826
310.124 -0.143 0.2676 -0.0855 -0.4394 -0.0153 -0.3998 -0.0739
320.1193 -0.1405 0.2463 -0.0816 -0.3813 -0.0157 -0.3481 -0.0657
330.1147 -0.1377 0.2257 -0.0777 -0.3263 -0.016 -0.2988 -0.0578
340.11 -0.1346 0.2059 -0.0736 -0.2743 -0.0163 -0.252 -0.0503
350.1054 -0.1313 0.1869 -0.0696 -0.225 -0.0164 -0.2074 -0.0431
360.1009 -0.1277 0.1688 -0.0656 -0.1783 -0.0165 -0.1652 -0.0364
370.0965 -0.1239 0.1514 -0.0615 -0.1341 -0.0166 -0.1252 -0.0299
380.0922 -0.12 0.1348 -0.0576 -0.0923 -0.0166 -0.0874 -0.0238
390.0881 -0.1159 0.1191 -0.0536 -0.0528 -0.0165 -0.0517 -0.018
400.0841 -0.1118 0.1041 -0.0498 -0.0154 -0.0164 -0.018 -0.0125

Data for Figure 3 (Dashed Line)

PeriodHome GDPHome Policy RateHome AbsorptionHome InflationHome ExportsHome Real Interest RateReal Exchange RateHome Trade Balance
1-0.2855 -0.1988 0.2229 -0.3466 -2.2558 0.0218 -2.8563 -0.4038
2-0.3565 -0.2924 0.4315 -0.2858 -3.4469 -0.0189 -2.9741 -0.4899
3-0.3262 -0.3212 0.6056 -0.2166 -4.0261 -0.0403 -3.0001 -0.534
4-0.2546 -0.3127 0.7383 -0.16 -4.2422 -0.0478 -2.9585 -0.5492
5-0.1725 -0.2851 0.8303 -0.1217 -4.2396 -0.0463 -2.8693 -0.5449
6-0.0949 -0.2508 0.8868 -0.1 -4.1063 -0.0399 -2.749 -0.5279
7-0.0279 -0.2179 0.9142 -0.0913 -3.898 -0.0316 -2.6106 -0.5033
80.0267 -0.1906 0.9192 -0.0914 -3.6509 -0.0235 -2.4638 -0.4745
90.0695 -0.1705 0.9079 -0.0967 -3.3882 -0.0165 -2.3155 -0.444
100.102 -0.1576 0.8852 -0.1045 -3.1251 -0.0111 -2.1701 -0.4133
110.126 -0.1507 0.8552 -0.113 -2.8706 -0.0075 -2.0304 -0.3834
120.1433 -0.1486 0.8207 -0.1209 -2.6301 -0.0053 -1.8978 -0.3551
130.1552 -0.1499 0.7839 -0.1276 -2.4061 -0.0043 -1.7728 -0.3284
140.163 -0.1533 0.7461 -0.1328 -2.1996 -0.0042 -1.6555 -0.3036
150.1676 -0.1577 0.7084 -0.1365 -2.0104 -0.0048 -1.5454 -0.2806
160.1698 -0.1625 0.6713 -0.1386 -1.8377 -0.0058 -1.442 -0.2594
170.1701 -0.1671 0.6352 -0.1394 -1.6801 -0.007 -1.3447 -0.2398
180.169 -0.1712 0.6001 -0.1391 -1.5363 -0.0084 -1.2529 -0.2217
190.1668 -0.1744 0.5663 -0.1377 -1.4049 -0.0097 -1.166 -0.2049
200.1636 -0.1769 0.5338 -0.1355 -1.2845 -0.0111 -1.0835 -0.1893
210.1599 -0.1784 0.5024 -0.1326 -1.1739 -0.0123 -1.005 -0.1748
220.1556 -0.1791 0.4721 -0.1292 -1.072 -0.0134 -0.93 -0.1613
230.151 -0.179 0.443 -0.1254 -0.9777 -0.0145 -0.8584 -0.1486
240.1462 -0.1781 0.415 -0.1212 -0.8901 -0.0154 -0.7898 -0.1366
250.1411 -0.1766 0.3879 -0.1167 -0.8085 -0.0161 -0.7241 -0.1254
260.1359 -0.1745 0.3619 -0.1121 -0.7322 -0.0168 -0.6612 -0.1148
270.1307 -0.1719 0.3369 -0.1073 -0.6607 -0.0174 -0.6008 -0.1047
280.1255 -0.1689 0.3128 -0.1024 -0.5934 -0.0178 -0.5429 -0.0952
290.1204 -0.1654 0.2896 -0.0975 -0.53 -0.0182 -0.4874 -0.0862
300.1153 -0.1616 0.2674 -0.0925 -0.4702 -0.0185 -0.4343 -0.0776
310.1103 -0.1576 0.246 -0.0876 -0.4135 -0.0187 -0.3835 -0.0695
320.1055 -0.1533 0.2256 -0.0827 -0.3599 -0.0189 -0.3349 -0.0617
330.1008 -0.1488 0.206 -0.0778 -0.309 -0.0189 -0.2885 -0.0543
340.0963 -0.1442 0.1873 -0.0731 -0.2607 -0.0189 -0.2443 -0.0473
350.0919 -0.1394 0.1694 -0.0684 -0.2149 -0.0189 -0.2022 -0.0406
360.0877 -0.1346 0.1524 -0.0638 -0.1714 -0.0188 -0.1622 -0.0342
370.0837 -0.1297 0.1362 -0.0594 -0.1301 -0.0187 -0.1242 -0.0282
380.0799 -0.1248 0.1208 -0.0551 -0.0909 -0.0185 -0.0882 -0.0224
390.0763 -0.1198 0.1061 -0.0509 -0.0537 -0.0182 -0.0541 -0.017
400.0729 -0.1149 0.0923 -0.0469 -0.0184 -0.018 -0.0218 -0.0118

Figure 4. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Deeper Domestic Recession

Data for Figure 4 immediately follows.

Data for Figure 4 (Soild Line)

PeriodForeign GDPForeign Policy RateHome Policy RateHome InflationHome AbsorptionHome GDPForeign Relative Import PriceHome Exports
1-0.5465 -0.6775 0 -0.6346 0.0274 -0.5185 1.5848 -2.4717
2-0.8459 -1.082 0 -0.5219 0.1187 -0.7081 2.3468 -3.703
3-0.9736 -1.3104 0 -0.3809 0.2374 -0.7226 2.6938 -4.2568
4-0.9896 -1.4162 0 -0.2517 0.3599 -0.6494 2.8231 -4.4314
5-0.9384 -1.4389 0 -0.1498 0.4723 -0.5382 2.8332 -4.3918
6-0.8507 -1.4087 0 -0.078 0.5676 -0.4168 2.7756 -4.232
7-0.7465 -1.3485 0 -0.0332 0.6429 -0.3004 2.6789 -4.0078
8-0.6386 -1.2742 0 -0.0104 0.6985 -0.1963 2.5599 -3.7528
9-0.5343 -1.1962 0 -0.0039 0.7357 -0.1073 2.4291 -3.4873
10-0.4377 -1.1209 0 -0.0088 0.7568 -0.0342 2.2936 -3.2243
11-0.3504 -1.0512 -0.1453 -0.0209 0.7638 0.0233 2.1595 -2.9728
12-0.273 -0.9885 -0.1191 -0.0368 0.7559 0.0626 2.0341 -2.7417
13-0.2058 -0.9327 -0.1053 -0.0528 0.7388 0.0903 1.9124 -2.5256
14-0.1483 -0.8833 -0.1003 -0.067 0.7159 0.1104 1.7937 -2.3231
15-0.0997 -0.8394 -0.1011 -0.0789 0.6897 0.125 1.6785 -2.1342
16-0.0592 -0.7999 -0.1054 -0.0884 0.6618 0.1358 1.5675 -1.9588
17-0.0259 -0.764 -0.1115 -0.0958 0.6331 0.1436 1.4613 -1.7966
180.001 -0.7309 -0.1181 -0.1011 0.6042 0.149 1.36 -1.6467
190.0223 -0.6999 -0.1247 -0.1049 0.5753 0.1526 1.2635 -1.5085
200.0386 -0.6705 -0.1306 -0.1072 0.5468 0.1545 1.1716 -1.3808
210.0508 -0.6423 -0.1358 -0.1083 0.5186 0.1552 1.0841 -1.2628
220.0593 -0.6151 -0.1401 -0.1084 0.4908 0.1547 1.0006 -1.1534
230.0648 -0.5887 -0.1434 -0.1078 0.4636 0.1534 0.921 -1.0518
240.0677 -0.563 -0.1458 -0.1064 0.4369 0.1512 0.845 -0.9571
250.0685 -0.5378 -0.1474 -0.1045 0.4108 0.1485 0.7724 -0.8686
260.0676 -0.5132 -0.1482 -0.1021 0.3853 0.1452 0.703 -0.7858
270.0653 -0.4892 -0.1483 -0.0993 0.3604 0.1414 0.6367 -0.708
280.062 -0.4657 -0.1478 -0.0962 0.3361 0.1374 0.5733 -0.6349
290.058 -0.4427 -0.1467 -0.0928 0.3126 0.1331 0.5128 -0.566
300.0533 -0.4203 -0.1451 -0.0893 0.2897 0.1286 0.455 -0.5009
310.0484 -0.3985 -0.143 -0.0855 0.2676 0.124 0.4 -0.4394
320.0432 -0.3774 -0.1405 -0.0816 0.2463 0.1193 0.3475 -0.3813
330.038 -0.3569 -0.1377 -0.0777 0.2257 0.1147 0.2976 -0.3263
340.0329 -0.337 -0.1346 -0.0736 0.2059 0.11 0.2502 -0.2743
350.0279 -0.3178 -0.1313 -0.0696 0.1869 0.1054 0.2052 -0.225
360.0231 -0.2993 -0.1277 -0.0656 0.1688 0.1009 0.1625 -0.1783
370.0186 -0.2816 -0.1239 -0.0615 0.1514 0.0965 0.1222 -0.1341
380.0144 -0.2645 -0.12 -0.0576 0.1348 0.0922 0.0841 -0.0923
390.0106 -0.2482 -0.1159 -0.0536 0.1191 0.0881 0.0482 -0.0528
400.007 -0.2326 -0.1118 -0.0498 0.1041 0.0841 0.0144 -0.0154

Data for Figure 4 (Dashed Line)

PeriodForeign GDPForeign Policy RateHome Policy RateHome InflationHome AbsorptionHome GDPForeign Relative Import PriceHome Exports
1-0.5425 -0.6762 0 -0.8299 -0.0651 -0.6256 1.6656 -2.5615
2-0.8427 -1.0804 0 -0.6952 -0.0354 -0.8767 2.4439 -3.8114
3-0.9723 -1.3093 0 -0.523 0.0449 -0.9252 2.7858 -4.36
4-0.99 -1.4159 0 -0.3606 0.1462 -0.8688 2.9066 -4.5256
5-0.94 -1.4392 0 -0.227 0.2497 -0.7636 2.911 -4.4798
6-0.8529 -1.4095 0 -0.1267 0.3445 -0.6415 2.8522 -4.319
7-0.749 -1.3494 0 -0.0573 0.4252 -0.5204 2.7585 -4.0985
8-0.641 -1.275 0 -0.0134 0.4898 -0.409 2.6458 -3.8509
9-0.5365 -1.1967 0 0.0108 0.5388 -0.311 2.5232 -3.5952
10-0.4395 -1.121 0 0.021 0.5738 -0.2272 2.3965 -3.3426
11-0.3521 -1.0509 0 0.0217 0.5969 -0.1565 2.269 -3.0991
12-0.2749 -0.9879 0 0.0163 0.6103 -0.0973 2.1427 -2.8677
13-0.2079 -0.9318 0 0.0075 0.6163 -0.0477 2.0187 -2.6498
14-0.1504 -0.8821 0 -0.003 0.6165 -0.0059 1.8977 -2.4453
15-0.1019 -0.8379 0 -0.0142 0.6124 0.0295 1.7798 -2.254
16-0.0615 -0.7982 0 -0.0256 0.6048 0.0596 1.6654 -2.0751
17-0.0282 -0.7621 -0.0435 -0.0366 0.5942 0.0848 1.5553 -1.9088
18-0.0013 -0.7287 -0.0784 -0.0473 0.5799 0.104 1.4513 -1.7563
190.0201 -0.6974 -0.0805 -0.0569 0.562 0.1178 1.353 -1.6163
200.0365 -0.6677 -0.0847 -0.065 0.5419 0.1278 1.2586 -1.4859
210.0487 -0.6394 -0.0901 -0.0715 0.5203 0.1352 1.1675 -1.3639
220.0572 -0.612 -0.0959 -0.0765 0.4978 0.1404 1.0796 -1.2495
230.0627 -0.5855 -0.1015 -0.0802 0.4747 0.1438 0.9949 -1.142
240.0656 -0.5597 -0.1066 -0.0827 0.4512 0.1459 0.9135 -1.041
250.0664 -0.5345 -0.1111 -0.0843 0.4276 0.1467 0.8353 -0.9461
260.0655 -0.5099 -0.1149 -0.0849 0.4039 0.1464 0.7604 -0.8567
270.0633 -0.4858 -0.1179 -0.0849 0.3804 0.1453 0.6886 -0.7726
280.0601 -0.4623 -0.1202 -0.0842 0.3571 0.1434 0.62 -0.6932
290.0561 -0.4393 -0.1218 -0.083 0.3341 0.1409 0.5545 -0.6182
300.0516 -0.4169 -0.1227 -0.0813 0.3115 0.1379 0.4919 -0.5474
310.0467 -0.3952 -0.1229 -0.0793 0.2893 0.1344 0.4323 -0.4805
320.0417 -0.374 -0.1227 -0.0769 0.2677 0.1306 0.3757 -0.4172
330.0366 -0.3535 -0.1219 -0.0742 0.2466 0.1265 0.3218 -0.3574
340.0316 -0.3337 -0.1206 -0.0713 0.2262 0.1223 0.2707 -0.3008
350.0268 -0.3146 -0.119 -0.0683 0.2064 0.1179 0.2224 -0.2473
360.0221 -0.2962 -0.117 -0.065 0.1874 0.1135 0.1766 -0.1968
370.0178 -0.2785 -0.1146 -0.0617 0.169 0.109 0.1334 -0.149
380.0137 -0.2616 -0.112 -0.0584 0.1515 0.1045 0.0927 -0.104
390.01 -0.2453 -0.1091 -0.055 0.1347 0.1002 0.0544 -0.0615
400.0065 -0.2298 -0.1061 -0.0515 0.1187 0.0958 0.0185 -0.0214

Figure 5. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against the Backdrop of Domestic Recession Alternative Monetary Policy Rules*

Data for Figure 5 immediately follows.

$ ^{*}$ The parameters for the policy rule described in equation (17) are chosen as: $ \gamma_{i} = 0.7, \gamma_{\pi} = 1.5, \gamma_{y} = 0.5$ for the benchmark Taylor rule; the rule more aggressive on inflation takes $ \gamma_{\pi} = 3$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged; and the rule more aggressive on the output gap takes $ \gamma_{y} = 4$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged.
$ ^{**}$ The spillover effects are defined as the ratio of the response of home GDP (in log deviation from the path implied by the initial baseline recession) to the response of foreign GDP (also in deviation from its initial path). The measure shown is an average of the spillover effects over the first four quarters. The size of the foreign consumption shock is small enough not to influence the number of periods for which the zero lower bound on policy rates is binding.

Data for Figure 5

Taylor Rule More aggressive on inflationMore aggressive on output gap
0.3571
0.3052
0.2711
0.3788
0.3273
0.2826
0.4016
0.3301
0.3231
0.4757
0.4177
0.3575
0.5261
0.4496
0.3963
0.5535
0.5008
0.4346
0.6073
0.5511
0.4694
0.6593
0.5651
0.5112
0.6688
0.6148
0.5495
0.7183
0.66
0.5619
0.7639
0.699
0.5975
0.8053
0.7302
0.6288
0.8427
0.7527
0.6561
0.8768
0.7669
0.6798

Figure 6. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Domestic Recession Alternative Monetary Policy Rules*

Data for Figure 6 immediately follows.

$ ^{*}$ The parameters for the policy rule described in equation (17) are chosen as: $ \gamma_{i} = 0.7, \gamma_{\pi} = 1.5, \gamma_{y} = 0.5$ for the benchmark Taylor rule; the rule more aggressive on inflation takes $ \gamma_{\pi} = 3$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged; and the rule more aggressive on the output gap takes $ \gamma_{y} = 4$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged.
$ ^{**}$ The spillover effects are defined as the ratio of the response of home GDP (in deviation from the path implied by the initial baseline recession) to the response of foreign GDP (also in deviation from its initial path). The measure shown is an average of the spillover effects over the first four quarters.

Data for Figure 6 (Top Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDPBaseline Monetary Policy RuleAverage percent change in foreign GDPMore aggressive on inflationAverage percent change in foreign GDPMore aggressive on output gap
-9.4813 13 -9.4588 11 -9.4955 15
-9.4451 13 -9.403 11 -9.4604 15
-9.409 13 -9.3471 11 -9.4254 15
-9.3728 13 -9.2913 11 -9.3904 15
-9.3366 13 -9.2355 11 -9.3553 15
-9.3005 13 -9.1797 11 -9.3203 15
-9.2643 13 -9.1239 11 -9.2853 15
-9.2281 13 -9.068 11 -9.2502 15
-9.192 13 -9.0122 11 -9.2152 15
-9.1558 13 -8.9564 11 -9.1802 15
-9.1196 13 -8.9006 11 -9.1451 15
-9.0834 13 -8.8448 11 -9.1101 15
-9.0473 13 -8.7889 11 -9.0751 15
-9.0111 13 -8.7331 11 -9.04 15
-8.9749 13 -8.6773 11 -9.005 15
-8.9388 13 -8.6215 11 -8.97 15
-8.9026 13 -8.5657 11 -8.9349 15
-8.8664 13 -8.5098 11 -8.8999 15
-8.8303 13 -8.454 11 -8.8649 15
-8.7941 13 -8.3982 11 -8.8299 15
-8.7579 13 -8.3424 11 -8.7948 15
-8.7217 13 -8.2866 11 -8.7598 15
-8.6856 13 -8.2308 11 -8.7248 15
-8.6494 13 -8.1749 11 -8.6897 14
-8.6132 13 -8.1191 11 -8.6547 14
-8.5771 13 -8.0633 11 -8.6196 14
-8.5409 13 -8.0075 11 -8.5846 14
-8.5047 13 -7.9517 11 -8.5496 14
-8.4686 13 -7.8958 11 -8.5145 14
-8.4324 13 -7.84 11 -8.4795 14
-8.3962 13 -7.7842 11 -8.4445 14
-8.36 13 -7.7284 11 -8.4094 14
-8.3239 13 -7.6726 11 -8.3744 14
-8.2877 13 -7.6167 11 -8.3393 14
-8.2515 13 -7.5609 11 -8.3043 14
-8.2154 13 -7.5051 11 -8.2693 14
-8.1792 13 -7.4493 11 -8.2342 14
-8.143 13 -7.3935 11 -8.1992 14
-8.1069 13 -7.3376 11 -8.1641 14
-8.0707 13 -7.2818 11 -8.1291 14
-8.0345 13 -7.226 11 -8.0941 14
-7.9983 13 -7.1702 11 -8.059 14
-7.9622 13 -7.1144 11 -8.024 14
-7.926 13 -7.0585 11 -7.989 14
-7.8898 13 -7.0027 11 -7.9539 14
-7.8537 13 -6.9469 11 -7.9189 14
-7.8175 13 -6.8911 11 -7.8838 14
-7.7813 13 -6.8353 11 -7.8488 14
-7.7452 13 -6.7795 11 -7.8138 14
-7.709 13 -6.7236 11 -7.7787 14
-7.6728 13 -6.6678 11 -7.7437 14
-7.6366 13 -6.612 11 -7.7086 14
-7.6005 13 -6.5562 11 -7.6736 14
-7.5643 13 -6.5004 11 -7.6386 14
-7.5281 13 -6.4445 11 -7.6035 14
-7.492 13 -6.3887 11 -7.5685 14
-7.4558 13 -6.3329 11 -7.5335 14
-7.4196 13 -6.2771 11 -7.4984 14
-7.3835 13 -6.2213 11 -7.4634 14
-7.3473 13 -6.1654 11 -7.4283 14
-7.3111 13 -6.1096 11 -7.3933 14
-7.2749 13 -6.0538 11 -7.3583 14
-7.2388 13 -5.998 11 -7.3232 14
-7.2026 13 -5.9422 11 -7.2882 14
-7.1664 13 -5.8863 11 -7.2531 14
-7.1303 13 -5.8305 11 -7.2181 14
-7.0941 13 -5.7747 11 -7.1831 14
-7.0579 13 -5.7189 11 -7.148 14
-7.0217 12 -5.6631 11 -7.113 14
-6.9856 12 -5.6072 11 -7.078 14
-6.9494 12 -5.5514 11 -7.0429 14
-6.9132 12 -5.4956 11 -7.0079 14
-6.877 12 -5.4398 11 -6.9728 14
-6.8408 12 -5.384 11 -6.9378 14
-6.8046 12 -5.3282 11 -6.9028 14
-6.7685 12 -5.2723 11 -6.8677 14
-6.7323 12 -5.2165 11 -6.8327 14
-6.6961 12 -5.1607 11 -6.7976 14
-6.6599 12 -5.1049 11 -6.7626 14
-6.6237 12 -5.0491 11 -6.7276 14
-6.5875 12 -4.9932 11 -6.6925 14
-6.5514 12 -4.9374 11 -6.6575 14
-6.5152 12 -4.8816 11 -6.6225 14
-6.479 12 -4.8258 11 -6.5874 14
-6.4428 12 -4.77 11 -6.5524 14
-6.4066 12 -4.7141 11 -6.5173 14
-6.3704 12 -4.6583 11 -6.4823 14
-6.3343 12 -4.6025 11 -6.4473 14
-6.2981 12 -4.5467 11 -6.4122 14
-6.2619 12 -4.4909 11 -6.3772 14
-6.2257 12 -4.435 11 -6.3421 14
-6.1895 12 -4.3792 11 -6.3071 14
-6.1533 12 -4.3234 11 -6.2721 14
-6.1172 12 -4.2676 11 -6.237 14
-6.081 12 -4.2118 11 -6.202 14
-6.0448 12 -4.1559 11 -6.167 14
-6.0086 12 -4.1001 11 -6.1319 14
-5.9724 12 -4.0443 11 -6.0969 14
-5.9362 12 -3.9885 11 -6.0618 14
-5.9001 12 -3.9327 11 -6.0268 14
-5.8639 12 -3.8769 11 -5.9918 14
-5.8277 12 -3.821 11 -5.9567 14
-5.7915 12 -3.7652 11 -5.9217 14
-5.7553 12 -3.7094 11 -5.8866 14
-5.7191 12 -3.6536 11 -5.8516 14
-5.6829 12 -3.5978 11 -5.8166 14
-5.6468 12 -3.5419 11 -5.7815 14
-5.6106 12 -3.4861 11 -5.7465 14
-5.5744 12 -3.4303 11 -5.7115 14
-5.5382 12 -3.3745 11 -5.6764 14
-5.502 12 -3.3187 11 -5.6414 14
-5.4658 12 -3.2628 11 -5.6063 14
-5.4297 12 -3.207 11 -5.5713 14
-5.3935 12 -3.1512 11 -5.5363 14
-5.3573 12 -3.0954 11 -5.5012 14
-5.3211 12 -3.0396 11 -5.4662 14
-5.2849 12 -2.9837 11 -5.4311 14
-5.2487 12 -2.9279 11 -5.3961 14
-5.2126 12 -2.8721 11 -5.3611 14
-5.1764 12 -2.8163 11 -5.326 14
-5.1402 12 -2.7605 11 -5.291 14
-5.104 12 -2.7046 11 -5.256 14
-5.0678 12 -2.6488 11 -5.2209 14
-5.0316 12 -2.593 11 -5.1859 14
-4.9955 12 -2.5372 11 -5.1508 14
-4.9593 12 -2.4814 11 -5.1158 14
-4.9231 12 -2.4256 11 -5.0808 14
-4.8869 12 -2.3697 11 -5.0457 14
-4.8507 12 -2.3139 11 -5.0107 14
-4.8145 12 -2.2581 11 -4.9756 14
-4.7784 12 -2.2023 11 -4.9406 14
-4.7422 12 -2.1465 11 -4.9056 14
-4.706 12 -2.0906 11 -4.8705 14
-4.6698 12 -2.0348 11 -4.8355 14
-4.6336 12 -1.979 11 -4.8005 14
-4.5974 12 -1.9232 11 -4.7654 14
-4.5613 12 -1.8674 11 -4.7304 14
-4.5251 12 -1.8115 11 -4.6953 14
-4.4889 12 -1.7557 11 -4.6603 13
-4.4527 12 -1.6999 11 -4.6253 13
-4.4165 12 -1.6441 11 -4.5902 13
-4.3803 12 -1.5883 11 -4.5552 13
-4.3441 12 -1.5324 11 -4.5201 13
-4.308 12 -1.4766 11 -4.4851 13
-4.2718 12 -1.4208 11 -4.45 13
-4.2356 12 -1.365 11 -4.415 13
-4.1994 12 -1.3092 11 -4.3799 13
-4.1632 12 -1.2533 11 -4.3449 13
-4.127 12 -1.1975 11 -4.3098 13
-4.0909 12 -1.1417 11 -4.2748 13
-4.0547 12 -1.0859 11 -4.2398 13
-4.0185 12 -1.0301 11 -4.2047 13
-3.9823 12 -0.9743 11 -4.1697 13
-3.9461 12 -0.9184 11 -4.1346 13
-3.9099 11 -0.8626 11 -4.0996 13
-3.8737 11 -0.8068 11 -4.0645 13
-3.8375 11 -0.751 11 -4.0295 13
-3.8013 11 -0.6952 11 -3.9944 13
-3.7651 11 -0.6393 11 -3.9594 13
-3.7289 11 -0.5835 11 -3.9243 13
-3.6927 11 -0.5277 11 -3.8893 13
-3.6566 11 -0.4719 11 -3.8542 13
-3.6204 11 -0.4161 11 -3.8192 13
-3.5842 11 -0.3602 11 -3.7842 13
-3.548 11 -0.3044 11 -3.7491 13
-3.5118 11 -0.2486 11 -3.7141 13
-3.4756 11 -0.1928 11 -3.679 13
-3.4394 11 -0.137 11 -3.644 13
-3.4032 11 -0.0811 11 -3.6089 13
-3.367 11 -0.0253 11 -3.5739 13
-3.3308 11 0.0305 11 -3.5388 13
-3.2946 11 0.0863 11 -3.5038 13
-3.2584 11 0.1421 11 -3.4687 13
-3.2222 11 0.198 11 -3.4337 13
-3.186 11 0.2538 11 -3.3987 13
-3.1498 11 0.3096 11 -3.3636 13
-3.1136 11 0.3654 11 -3.3286 13
-3.0774 11 0.4212 11 -3.2935 13
-3.0412 11 0.477 11 -3.2585 13
-3.005 11 0.5329 11 -3.2234 13
-2.9688 11 0.5887 11 -3.1884 13
-2.9326 11 0.6445 11 -3.1533 13
-2.8964 11 0.7003 11 -3.1183 13
-2.8602 11 0.7561 11 -3.0832 13
-2.824 11 0.812 11 -3.0482 13
-2.7878 11 0.8678 11 -3.0132 13
-2.7516 11 0.9236 11 -2.9781 13
-2.7154 11 0.9794 11 -2.9431 13
-2.6792 11 1.0352 11 -2.908 13
-2.643 11 1.0911 11 -2.873 13
-2.6068 11 1.1469 11 -2.8379 13
-2.5706 11 1.2027 11 -2.8029 13
-2.5344 11 1.2585 11 -2.7678 13
-2.4982 11 1.3143 11 -2.7328 13
-2.462 11 1.3702 11 -2.6977 13
-2.4258 11 1.426 11 -2.6627 13
-2.3896 11 1.4818 11 -2.6277 13
-2.3534 11 1.5376 11 -2.5926 13
-2.3172 11 1.5934 11 -2.5576 13
-2.281 11 1.6493 11 -2.5225 13
-2.2448 11 1.7051 11 -2.4875 13
-2.2086 11 1.7609 11 -2.4524 13
-2.1724 11 1.8167 11 -2.4174 13
-2.1362 11 1.8725 11 -2.3823 13
-2.1 11 1.9283 11 -2.3473 13
-2.0638 11 1.9842 11 -2.3122 13
-2.0276 11 2.04 11 -2.2772 13
-1.9915 11 2.0958 11 -2.2422 13
-1.9553 11 2.1516 11 -2.2071 13
-1.9191 11 2.2074 11 -2.1721 13
-1.8829 11 2.2633 11 -2.137 13
-1.8467 11 2.3191 11 -2.102 13
-1.8105 11 2.3749 11 -2.0669 13
-1.7743 11 2.4307 11 -2.0319 13
-1.7381 11 2.4865 11 -1.9968 13
-1.7019 11 2.5424 11 -1.9618 13
-1.6657 11 2.5982 10 -1.9267 13
-1.6295 11 2.654 10 -1.8917 13
-1.5933 11 2.7099 10 -1.8567 13
-1.5571 11 2.7657 10 -1.8216 13
-1.5209 11 2.8215 10 -1.7866 13
-1.4847 11 2.8774 10 -1.7515 13
-1.4485 11 2.9332 10 -1.7165 13
-1.4123 11 2.9891 10 -1.6814 13
-1.3761 11 3.0449 10 -1.6464 13
-1.3399 11 3.1007 10 -1.6113 13
-1.3037 11 3.1566 10 -1.5763 13
-1.2675 11 3.2124 10 -1.5412 13
-1.2313 11 3.2683 10 -1.5062 13
-1.1951 11 3.3241 10 -1.4712 13
-1.1589 11 3.3799 10 -1.4361 13
-1.1227 11 3.4358 10 -1.4011 13
-1.0865 11 3.4916 10 -1.366 13
-1.0503 11 3.5475 10 -1.331 13
-1.0141 11 3.6033 10 -1.2959 13
-0.9779 11 3.6591 10 -1.2609 13
-0.9417 11 3.715 10 -1.2258 13
-0.9055 11 3.7708 10 -1.1908 12
-0.8693 11 3.8267 10 -1.1557 12
-0.8331 11 3.8825 10 -1.1207 12
-0.7969 11 3.9383 10 -1.0856 12
-0.7607 11 3.9942 10 -1.0506 12
-0.7245 10 4.05 10 -1.0155 12
-0.6883 10 4.1059 10 -0.9805 12
-0.6521 10 4.1617 10 -0.9454 12
-0.6159 10 4.2175 10 -0.9104 12
-0.5797 10 4.2734 10 -0.8753 12
-0.5435 10 4.3292 10 -0.8403 12
-0.5072 10 4.3851 10 -0.8052 12
-0.471 10 4.4409 10 -0.7702 12
-0.4348 10 4.4967 10 -0.7351 12
-0.3986 10 4.5526 10 -0.7 12
-0.3624 10 4.6084 10 -0.665 12
-0.3262 10 4.6643 10 -0.6299 12
-0.29 10 4.7201 10 -0.5949 12
-0.2538 10 4.7759 10 -0.5598 12
-0.2175 10 4.8318 10 -0.5248 12
-0.1813 10 4.8876 10 -0.4897 12
-0.1451 10 4.9435 10 -0.4547 12
-0.1089 10 4.9993 10 -0.4196 12
-0.0727 10 5.0551 10 -0.3846 12
-0.0365 10 5.111 10 -0.3495 12
-0.0003 10 5.1668 10 -0.3145 12
0.0359 10 5.2227 10 -0.2794 12
0.0722 10 5.2785 10 -0.2444 12
0.1084 10 5.3343 10 -0.2093 12
0.1446 10 5.3902 10 -0.1743 12
0.1808 10 5.446 10 -0.1392 12
0.217 10 5.5019 10 -0.1042 12
0.2532 10 5.5577 10 -0.0691 12
0.2894 10 5.6135 10 -0.034 12
0.3256 10 5.6694 10 0.001 12
0.3619 10 5.7252 10 0.0361 12
0.3981 10 5.7811 10 0.0711 12
0.4343 10 5.8369 10 0.1062 12
0.4705 10 5.8927 10 0.1412 12
0.5067 10 5.9486 10 0.1763 12
0.5429 10 6.0044 10 0.2113 12
0.5791 10 6.0603 10 0.2464 12
0.6153 10 6.1161 10 0.2814 12
0.6515 10 6.1719 10 0.3165 12
0.6878 10 6.2278 10 0.3515 12
0.724 10 6.2836 10 0.3866 12
0.7602 10 6.3395 10 0.4216 12
0.7964 10 6.3953 10 0.4567 12
0.8326 10 6.4511 10 0.4917 12
0.8688 10 6.507 10 0.5268 12
0.905 10 6.5628 10 0.5619 12
0.9412 10 6.6187 10 0.5969 12
0.9775 10 6.6745 10 0.632 12
1.0137 10 6.7303 10 0.667 12
1.0499 10 6.7862 10 0.7021 12
1.0861 10 6.842 10 0.7371 12
1.1223 10 6.8979 10 0.7722 12
1.1585 10 6.9537 10 0.8072 12
1.1947 10 7.0095 10 0.8423 12
1.2309 10 7.0654 10 0.8773 12
1.2672 10 7.1212 10 0.9124 12
1.3034 10 7.1771 10 0.9474 12
1.3396 10 7.2329 10 0.9825 12
1.3758 10 7.2887 10 1.0175 12
1.412 10 7.3446 10 1.0526 12
1.4482 10 7.4004 10 1.0876 12
1.4844 10 7.4563 10 1.1227 12
1.5206 10 7.5121 10 1.1577 12
1.5569 10 7.5679 10 1.1928 12
1.5931 10 7.6238 10 1.2279 12
1.6293 10 7.6796 10 1.2629 12
1.6655 10 7.7355 10 1.298 12
1.7017 10 7.7913 10 1.333 12
1.7379 10 7.8471 10 1.3681 12
1.7741 10 7.903 10 1.4031 12
1.8103 10 7.9588 10 1.4382 12
1.8466 10 8.0147 10 1.4732 12
1.8828 10 8.0705 10 1.5083 12
1.919 10 8.1263 10 1.5433 12
1.9552 10 8.1822 9 1.5784 12
1.9914 10 8.2381 9 1.6134 12
2.0276 10 8.2939 9 1.6485 12
2.0638 10 8.3498 9 1.6835 11
2.1 10 8.4056 9 1.7186 11
2.1363 10 8.4615 9 1.7537 11
2.1725 9 8.5174 9 1.7887 11
2.2087 9 8.5733 8 1.8238 11
2.2449 9 8.6291 8 1.8588 11
2.2811 9 8.685 8 1.8939 11
2.3174 9 8.7409 8 1.929 11
2.3536 9 8.7968 8 1.964 11
2.3898 9 8.8527 8 1.9991 11
2.4261 9 8.9086 8 2.0341 11
2.4623 9 8.9644 8 2.0692 11
2.4985 9 9.0203 8 2.1043 11
2.5347 9 9.0762 8 2.1393 11
2.571 9 9.1321 8 2.1744 11
2.6072 9 9.188 8 2.2094 11
2.6434 9 9.2439 8 2.2445 11
2.6797 9 9.2997 8 2.2796 11
2.7159 9 9.3556 8 2.3146 11
2.7521 9 9.4115 8 2.3497 11
2.7883 9 9.4674 8 2.3847 11
2.8246 9 9.5233 8 2.4198 11
2.8608 9 9.5792 8 2.4549 11
2.897 9 9.635 8 2.4899 11
2.9332 9 9.6909 8 2.525 11
2.9695 9 9.7468 8 2.56 11
3.0057 9 9.8027 8 2.5951 11
3.0419 9 9.8586 8 2.6302 11
3.0782 9 9.9145 8 2.6652 11
3.1144 9 9.9701 7 2.7003 11
3.1506 9 10.0261 7 2.7353 11
3.1868 9 10.0821 7 2.7704 11
3.2231 9 10.138 7 2.8055 11
3.2593 9 10.194 7 2.8405 11
3.2955 9 10.2499 7 2.8756 11
3.3317 9 10.3059 7 2.9106 11
3.368 9 10.3618 7 2.9457 11
3.4042 9 10.4178 7 2.9808 11
3.4404 9 10.4737 7 3.0158 11
3.4767 9 10.5297 7 3.0509 11
3.5129 9 10.5856 7 3.0859 11
3.5491 9 10.6416 7 3.121 11
3.5853 9 10.6975 7 3.1561 11
3.6216 9 10.7535 6 3.1911 11
3.6578 9 10.8094 6 3.2262 11
3.694 9 10.8654 5 3.2612 11
3.7302 9 10.9215 5 3.2963 11
3.7665 9 10.9775 5 3.3314 11
3.8027 9 11.0336 5 3.3664 11
3.8389 9 11.0897 5 3.4015 11
3.8752 9 11.1457 5 3.4365 11
3.9114 9 11.2018 5 3.4716 11
3.9476 9 11.2578 5 3.5067 11
3.9838 9 11.3139 5 3.5417 11
4.0201 9 11.37 5 3.5768 11
4.0563 9 11.426 5 3.6118 11
4.0925 9 11.4822 4 3.6469 11
4.1287 9 11.5383 4 3.682 11
4.165 9 11.5944 4 3.717 11
4.2012 9 11.6506 4 3.7521 11
4.2374 9 11.7067 4 3.7871 11
4.2737 9 11.7629 4 3.8222 11
4.3099 9 11.819 4 3.8573 11
4.3461 9 11.8752 4 3.8923 10
4.3823 9 11.9313 3 3.9274 10
4.4186 9 11.9875 3 3.9625 10
4.4548 9 12.0437 3 3.9975 10
4.491 9 12.0998 2 4.0326 10
4.5272 9 12.156 2 4.0677 10
4.5635 9 12.2122 2 4.1027 10
4.5997 8 12.2684 2 4.1378 10
4.6359 8 12.3246 2 4.1729 10
4.6722 8 12.3807 1 4.2079 10
4.7084 8 12.4369 1 4.243 10
4.7447 8 12.4931 1 4.2781 10
4.7809 8 12.5493 1 4.3131 10
4.8172 8 12.6055 0 4.3482 10
4.8534 8 12.6617 0 4.3833 10
4.8896 8 12.7179 0 4.4183 10
4.9259 8 12.7741 0 4.4534 10
4.9621 8 12.8303 0 4.4885 10
4.9984 8 12.8864 0 4.5235 10
5.0346 8 12.9426 0 4.5586 10
5.0709 8 12.9988 0 4.5937 10
5.1071 8 13.055 0 4.6288 10
5.1434 8 13.1112 0 4.6638 10
5.1796 8 13.1674 0 4.6989 10
5.2158 8 13.2236 0 4.734 10
5.2521 7 13.2798 0 4.769 10
5.2883 7 13.336 0 4.8041 10
5.3246 7 13.3922 0 4.8392 10
5.3608 7 13.4484 0 4.8742 10
5.3971 7 13.5045 0 4.9093 10
5.4333 7 13.5607 0 4.9444 10
5.4696 7 13.6169 0 4.9794 10
5.5058 7 13.6731 0 5.0145 10
5.5421 7 13.7293 0 5.0496 10
5.5783 7 13.7855 0 5.0846 10
5.6146 7 13.8417 0 5.1197 10
5.6508 7 13.8979 0 5.1548 10
5.6871 7 13.9541 0 5.1898 10
5.7233 7 14.0103 0 5.2249 10
5.7596 7 14.0664 0 5.26 10
5.7958 7 14.1226 0 5.295 10
5.8321 7 14.1788 0 5.3301 10
5.8683 7 14.235 0 5.3652 9
5.9046 7 14.2912 0 5.4003 9
5.9408 7 14.3474 0 5.4353 9
5.9771 7 14.4036 0 5.4704 9
6.0133 7 14.4598 0 5.5055 9
6.0496 7 14.516 0 5.5406 8
6.0858 7 14.5722 0 5.5756 8
6.1221 7 14.6284 0 5.6107 8
6.1583 7 14.6845 0 5.6458 8
6.1946 7 14.7407 0 5.6809 8
6.2308 7 14.7969 0 5.716 8
6.2671 7 14.8531 0 5.7511 8
6.3033 7 14.9093 0 5.7862 8
6.3396 7 14.9655 0 5.8212 8
6.3758 7 15.0217 0 5.8563 8
6.4121 7 15.0779 0 5.8914 8
6.4483 7 15.1341 0 5.9265 8
6.4846 6 15.1903 0 5.9616 8
6.5209 6 15.2464 0 5.9967 8
6.5571 6 15.3026 0 6.0318 8
6.5934 6 15.3588 0 6.0668 8
6.6297 6 15.415 0 6.1019 8
6.6659 6 15.4712 0 6.137 8
6.7022 6 15.5274 0 6.1721 8
6.7385 6 15.5836 0 6.2072 8
6.7747 6 15.6398 0 6.2423 8
6.811 6 15.696 0 6.2773 8
6.8473 6 15.7522 0 6.3124 8
6.8835 6 15.8084 0 6.3475 8
6.9198 6 15.8645 0 6.3826 8
6.9561 6 15.9207 0 6.4177 8
6.9924 6 15.9769 0 6.4528 8
7.0286 6 16.0331 0 6.4879 8
7.0649 6 16.0893 0 6.5229 8
7.1012 6 16.1455 0 6.558 8
7.1374 6 16.2017 0 6.5931 8
7.1737 6 16.2579 0 6.6282 8
7.21 6 16.3141 0 6.6633 8
7.2462 6 16.3703 0 6.6984 8
7.2825 6 16.4265 0 6.7335 7
7.3188 6 16.4826 0 6.7686 7
7.355 6 16.5388 0 6.8037 7
7.3913 6 16.595 0 6.8387 7
7.4276 6 16.6512 0 6.8738 7
7.4638 6 16.7074 0 6.9089 7
7.5001 6 16.7636 0 6.944 7
7.5364 6 16.8198 0 6.9791 7
7.5726 6 16.876 0 7.0142 7
7.6089 6 16.9322 0 7.0493 7
7.6452 6 16.9884 0 7.0844 7
7.6814 6 17.0445 0 7.1195 7
7.7177 6 17.1007 0 7.1546 7
7.754 6 17.1569 0 7.1897 7
7.7902 6 17.2131 0 7.2248 7
7.8265 5 17.2693 0 7.2599 7
7.8628 4 17.3255 0 7.295 7
7.8991 4 17.3817 0 7.3301 7
7.9355 4 17.4379 0 7.3652 7
7.9718 4 17.4941 0 7.4003 6
8.0081 4 17.5503 0 7.4354 6
8.0444 4 17.6065 0 7.4705 6
8.0807 4 17.6626 0 7.5057 5
8.117 4 17.7188 0 7.5408 5
8.1533 4 17.775 0 7.5759 5
8.1896 4 17.8312 0 7.6111 5
8.2259 4 17.8874 0 7.6462 5
8.2622 4 17.9436 0 7.6814 5
8.2986 4 17.9998 0 7.7165 5
8.3349 4 18.056 0 7.7516 5
8.3712 4 18.1122 0 7.7868 5
8.4075 4 18.1684 0 7.8219 5
8.4438 4 18.2245 0 7.857 5
8.4801 4 18.2807 0 7.8922 5
8.5164 4 18.3369 0 7.9273 5
8.5527 4 18.3931 0 7.9625 5
8.589 4 18.4493 0 7.9976 5
8.6254 4 18.5055 0 8.0327 4
8.6617 4 18.5617 0 8.0679 3
8.698 3 18.6179 0 8.1031 3
8.7343 3 18.6741 0 8.1383 3
8.7707 3 18.7303 0 8.1735 3
8.807 2 18.7865 0 8.2087 3
8.8434 2 18.8426 0 8.2439 3
8.8798 2 18.8988 0 8.2791 3
8.9161 2 18.955 0 8.3143 3
8.9525 2 19.0112 0 8.3495 2
8.9889 2 19.0674 0 8.3847 1
9.0252 2 19.1236 0 8.42 1
9.0616 2 19.1798 0 8.4552 1
9.098 2 19.236 0 8.4905 0
9.1343 1 19.2922 0 8.5257 0
9.1707 1 19.3484 0 8.561 0
9.2072 0 19.4046 0 8.5962 0
9.2436 0 19.4607 0 8.6315 0
9.28 0 19.5169 0 8.6668 0
9.3164 0 19.5731 0 8.702 0
9.3529 0 19.6293 0 8.7373 0
9.3893 0 19.6855 0 8.7725 0
9.4257 0 19.7417 0 8.8078 0
9.4621 0 19.7979 0 8.843 0
9.4986 0 19.8541 0 8.8783 0
9.535 0 19.9103 0 8.9136 0
9.5714 0 19.9665 0 8.9488 0
9.6078 0     8.9841 0
9.6443 0     9.0193 0
9.6807 0     9.0546 0
9.7171 0     9.0898 0
9.7535 0     9.1251 0
9.79 0     9.1604 0
9.8264 0     9.1956 0
9.8628 0     9.2309 0
9.8992 0     9.2661 0
9.9357 0     9.3014 0
9.9721 0     9.3366 0
10.0085 0     9.3719 0
10.0449 0     9.4072 0
10.0814 0     9.4424 0
10.1178 0     9.4777 0
10.1542 0     9.5129 0
10.1906 0     9.5482 0
10.2271 0     9.5835 0
10.2635 0     9.6187 0
10.2999 0     9.654 0
10.3363 0     9.6892 0
10.3728 0     9.7245 0
10.4092 0     9.7597 0
10.4456 0     9.795 0
10.482 0     9.8303 0
10.5185 0     9.8655 0
10.5549 0     9.9008 0
10.5913 0     9.936 0
10.6277 0     9.9713 0
10.6642 0     10.0065 0
10.7006 0     10.0418 0
10.737 0     10.0771 0
10.7734 0     10.1123 0
10.8099 0     10.1476 0
10.8463 0     10.1828 0
10.8827 0     10.2181 0
10.9191 0     10.2533 0
10.9556 0     10.2886 0
10.992 0     10.3239 0
11.0284 0     10.3591 0
11.0648 0     10.3944 0
11.1013 0     10.4296 0
11.1377 0     10.4649 0
11.1741 0     10.5001 0
11.2105 0     10.5354 0
11.247 0     10.5707 0
11.2834 0     10.6059 0
11.3198 0     10.6412 0
11.3562 0     10.6764 0
11.3927 0     10.7117 0
11.4291 0     10.747 0
11.4655 0     10.7822 0
11.5019 0     10.8175 0
11.5383 0     10.8527 0
11.5748 0     10.888 0
11.6112 0     10.9232 0
11.6476 0     10.9585 0
11.684 0     10.9938 0
11.7205 0     11.029 0
11.7569 0     11.0643 0
11.7933 0     11.0995 0
11.8297 0     11.1348 0
11.8662 0     11.17 0
11.9026 0     11.2053 0
11.939 0     11.2406 0
11.9754 0     11.2758 0
12.0119 0     11.3111 0
12.0483 0     11.3463 0
12.0847 0     11.3816 0
12.1211 0     11.4168 0
12.1576 0     11.4521 0
12.194 0     11.4874 0
12.2304 0     11.5226 0
12.2668 0     11.5579 0
12.3033 0     11.5931 0
12.3397 0     11.6284 0
12.3761 0     11.6637 0
12.4125 0     11.6989 0
12.449 0     11.7342 0
12.4854 0     11.7694 0
12.5218 0     11.8047 0
12.5582 0     11.8399 0
12.5947 0     11.8752 0
12.6311 0     11.9105 0
12.6675 0     11.9457 0
12.7039 0     11.981 0
12.7404 0     12.0162 0
12.7768 0     12.0515 0
12.8132 0     12.0867 0
12.8496 0     12.122 0
12.8861 0     12.1573 0
12.9225 0     12.1925 0
12.9589 0     12.2278 0
12.9953 0     12.263 0
13.0318 0     12.2983 0
13.0682 0     12.3335 0
13.1046 0     12.3688 0
13.141 0     12.4041 0
13.1775 0     12.4393 0
13.2139 0     12.4746 0
13.2503 0     12.5098 0
13.2867 0     12.5451 0
13.3232 0     12.5803 0
13.3596 0     12.6156 0
13.396 0     12.6509 0
13.4324 0     12.6861 0
13.4689 0     12.7214 0
13.5053 0     12.7566 0
13.5417 0     12.7919 0
13.5781 0     12.8272 0
13.6146 0     12.8624 0
13.651 0     12.8977 0
13.6874 0     12.9329 0
13.7238 0     12.9682 0
13.7603 0     13.0034 0
13.7967 0     13.0387 0
13.8331 0     13.074 0
13.8695 0     13.1092 0
13.906 0     13.1445 0
13.9424 0     13.1797 0
13.9788 0     13.215 0
14.0152 0     13.2502 0
14.0517 0     13.2855 0
14.0881 0     13.3208 0
14.1245 0     13.356 0
14.1609 0     13.3913 0
14.1974 0     13.4265 0
14.2338 0     13.4618 0
14.2702 0     13.497 0
14.3066 0     13.5323 0
14.3431 0     13.5676 0
14.3795 0     13.6028 0
14.4159 0     13.6381 0
14.4523 0     13.6733 0
14.4888 0     13.7086 0
14.5252 0     13.7439 0
14.5616 0     13.7791 0
14.598 0     13.8144 0
14.6345 0     13.8496 0
14.6709 0     13.8849 0
14.7073 0     13.9201 0
14.7437 0     13.9554 0
14.7802 0     13.9907 0
14.8166 0     14.0259 0
14.853 0     14.0612 0
14.8894 0     14.0964 0
14.9259 0     14.1317 0
14.9623 0     14.1669 0
14.9987 0     14.2022 0
15.0351 0     14.2375 0
15.0716 0     14.2727 0
15.108 0     14.308 0
15.1444 0     14.3432 0
15.1808 0     14.3785 0
15.2173 0     14.4137 0
15.2537 0     14.449 0
15.2901 0     14.4843 0
15.3265 0     14.5195 0
15.363 0     14.5548 0
15.3994 0     14.59 0
15.4358 0     14.6253 0
15.4722 0     14.6605 0
15.5087 0     14.6958 0
15.5451 0     14.7311 0
15.5815 0     14.7663 0
15.6179 0     14.8016 0
15.6544 0     14.8368 0
15.6908 0     14.8721 0
15.7272 0     14.9074 0
15.7636 0     14.9426 0
15.8001 0     14.9779 0
15.8365 0     15.0131 0
15.8729 0     15.0484 0
15.9093 0     15.0836 0
15.9458 0     15.1189 0
15.9822 0     15.1542 0
16.0186 0     15.1894 0
16.055 0     15.2247 0
16.0915 0     15.2599 0
16.1279 0     15.2952 0
16.1643 0     15.3304 0
16.2007 0     15.3657 0
16.2372 0     15.401 0
16.2736 0     15.4362 0
16.31 0     15.4715 0
16.3464 0     15.5067 0
16.3829 0     15.542 0
16.4193 0     15.5772 0
16.4557 0     15.6125 0
16.4921 0     15.6478 0
16.5286 0     15.683 0
16.565 0     15.7183 0
16.6014 0     15.7535 0
16.6378 0     15.7888 0
16.6743 0     15.824 0
16.7107 0     15.8593 0
16.7471 0     15.8946 0
16.7835 0     15.9298 0
16.82 0     15.9651 0
16.8564 0     16.0003 0
16.8928 0     16.0356 0
16.9292 0     16.0709 0
16.9657 0     16.1061 0
17.0021 0     16.1414 0
17.0385 0     16.1766 0
17.0749 0     16.2119 0
17.1114 0     16.2471 0
17.1478 0     16.2824 0
17.1842 0     16.3177 0
17.2206 0     16.3529 0
17.2571 0     16.3882 0
17.2935 0     16.4234 0
17.3299 0     16.4587 0
17.3663 0     16.4939 0
17.4028 0     16.5292 0
17.4392 0     16.5645 0
17.4756 0     16.5997 0
17.512 0     16.635 0
17.5485 0     16.6702 0
17.5849 0     16.7055 0
17.6213 0     16.7407 0
17.6577 0     16.776 0
17.6942 0     16.8113 0
17.7306 0     16.8465 0
17.767 0     16.8818 0
17.8034 0     16.917 0
17.8399 0     16.9523 0
17.8763 0     16.9876 0
17.9127 0     17.0228 0
17.9491 0     17.0581 0
17.9856 0     17.0933 0
18.022 0     17.1286 0
18.0584 0     17.1638 0
18.0948 0     17.1991 0
18.1313 0     17.2344 0
18.1677 0     17.2696 0
18.2041 0     17.3049 0
18.2405 0     17.3401 0
18.277 0     17.3754 0
18.3134 0     17.4106 0
18.3498 0     17.4459 0
18.3862 0     17.4812 0
18.4227 0     17.5164 0
18.4591 0     17.5517 0
18.4955 0     17.5869 0
18.5319 0     17.6222 0
18.5684 0     17.6574 0
18.6048 0     17.6927 0
18.6412 0     17.728 0
18.6776 0     17.7632 0
18.7141 0     17.7985 0
18.7505 0     17.8337 0
18.7869 0     17.869 0
18.8233 0     17.9042 0
18.8598 0     17.9395 0
18.8962 0     17.9748 0
18.9326 0     18.01 0
18.969 0     18.0453 0
19.0055 0     18.0805 0
19.0419 0     18.1158 0
19.0783 0     18.1511 0
19.1147 0     18.1863 0
19.1512 0     18.2216 0
19.1876 0     18.2568 0
19.224 0     18.2921 0
19.2604 0     18.3273 0
19.2969 0     18.3626 0
19.3333 0     18.3979 0
19.3697 0     18.4331 0
19.4061 0     18.4684 0
19.4426 0     18.5036 0
19.479 0     18.5389 0
19.5154 0     18.5741 0
19.5518 0     18.6094 0
19.5883 0     18.6447 0
19.6247 0     18.6799 0
19.6611 0     18.7152 0
19.6975 0     18.7504 0
19.734 0     18.7857 0
19.7704 0     18.8209 0
19.8068 0     18.8562 0
19.8432 0     18.8915 0
19.8796 0     18.9267 0
19.9161 0     18.962 0
19.9525 0     18.9972 0
19.9889 0     19.0325 0
        19.0678 0
        19.103 0
        19.1383 0
        19.1735 0
        19.2088 0
        19.244 0
        19.2793 0
        19.3146 0
        19.3498 0
        19.3851 0
        19.4203 0
        19.4556 0
        19.4908 0
        19.5261 0
        19.5614 0
        19.5966 0
        19.6319 0
        19.6671 0
        19.7024 0
        19.7376 0
        19.7729 0
        19.8082 0
        19.8434 0
        19.8787 0
        19.9139 0
        19.9492 0
        19.9844 0

Data for Figure 6 (Bottom Left Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDPBaseline Monetary Policy RuleAverage percent change in foreign GDPMore aggressive on inflationAverage percent change in foreign GDPMore aggressive on output gap
-9.4813 0.8327 -9.4588 0.7302 -9.4955 0.6887
-9.4451 0.8325 -9.403 0.7302 -9.4604 0.6886
-9.409 0.8323 -9.3471 0.7302 -9.4254 0.6885
-9.3728 0.8322 -9.2913 0.7302 -9.3904 0.6884
-9.3366 0.832 -9.2355 0.7302 -9.3553 0.6883
-9.3005 0.8318 -9.1797 0.7302 -9.3203 0.6882
-9.2643 0.8316 -9.1239 0.7302 -9.2853 0.6881
-9.2281 0.8315 -9.068 0.7302 -9.2502 0.688
-9.192 0.8313 -9.0122 0.7302 -9.2152 0.6878
-9.1558 0.8311 -8.9564 0.7302 -9.1802 0.6877
-9.1196 0.8309 -8.9006 0.7302 -9.1451 0.6876
-9.0834 0.8307 -8.8448 0.7302 -9.1101 0.6875
-9.0473 0.8306 -8.7889 0.7302 -9.0751 0.6874
-9.0111 0.8304 -8.7331 0.7302 -9.04 0.6872
-8.9749 0.8302 -8.6773 0.7302 -9.005 0.6871
-8.9388 0.83 -8.6215 0.7302 -8.97 0.687
-8.9026 0.8298 -8.5657 0.7302 -8.9349 0.6869
-8.8664 0.8296 -8.5098 0.7302 -8.8999 0.6867
-8.8303 0.8294 -8.454 0.7302 -8.8649 0.6866
-8.7941 0.8292 -8.3982 0.7302 -8.8299 0.6865
-8.7579 0.829 -8.3424 0.7302 -8.7948 0.6864
-8.7217 0.8288 -8.2866 0.7302 -8.7598 0.6862
-8.6856 0.8286 -8.2308 0.7302 -8.7248 0.6861
-8.6494 0.8284 -8.1749 0.7302 -8.6897 0.686
-8.6132 0.8282 -8.1191 0.7302 -8.6547 0.686
-8.5771 0.828 -8.0633 0.7302 -8.6196 0.6859
-8.5409 0.8278 -8.0075 0.7302 -8.5846 0.6858
-8.5047 0.8276 -7.9517 0.7302 -8.5496 0.6858
-8.4686 0.8274 -7.8958 0.7302 -8.5145 0.6857
-8.4324 0.8272 -7.84 0.7302 -8.4795 0.6857
-8.3962 0.827 -7.7842 0.7302 -8.4445 0.6856
-8.36 0.8268 -7.7284 0.7302 -8.4094 0.6855
-8.3239 0.8265 -7.6726 0.7302 -8.3744 0.6855
-8.2877 0.8263 -7.6167 0.7302 -8.3393 0.6854
-8.2515 0.8261 -7.5609 0.7302 -8.3043 0.6853
-8.2154 0.8259 -7.5051 0.7302 -8.2693 0.6853
-8.1792 0.8257 -7.4493 0.7302 -8.2342 0.6852
-8.143 0.8254 -7.3935 0.7302 -8.1992 0.6851
-8.1069 0.8252 -7.3376 0.7302 -8.1641 0.6851
-8.0707 0.825 -7.2818 0.7302 -8.1291 0.685
-8.0345 0.8247 -7.226 0.7302 -8.0941 0.685
-7.9983 0.8245 -7.1702 0.7302 -8.059 0.6849
-7.9622 0.8243 -7.1144 0.7302 -8.024 0.6848
-7.926 0.824 -7.0585 0.7302 -7.989 0.6847
-7.8898 0.8238 -7.0027 0.7302 -7.9539 0.6847
-7.8537 0.8235 -6.9469 0.7302 -7.9189 0.6846
-7.8175 0.8233 -6.8911 0.7302 -7.8838 0.6845
-7.7813 0.823 -6.8353 0.7302 -7.8488 0.6845
-7.7452 0.8228 -6.7795 0.7302 -7.8138 0.6844
-7.709 0.8225 -6.7236 0.7302 -7.7787 0.6843
-7.6728 0.8223 -6.6678 0.7302 -7.7437 0.6842
-7.6366 0.822 -6.612 0.7302 -7.7086 0.6842
-7.6005 0.8218 -6.5562 0.7302 -7.6736 0.6841
-7.5643 0.8215 -6.5004 0.7302 -7.6386 0.684
-7.5281 0.8212 -6.4445 0.7302 -7.6035 0.684
-7.492 0.821 -6.3887 0.7302 -7.5685 0.6839
-7.4558 0.8207 -6.3329 0.7302 -7.5335 0.6838
-7.4196 0.8204 -6.2771 0.7302 -7.4984 0.6837
-7.3835 0.8201 -6.2213 0.7302 -7.4634 0.6836
-7.3473 0.8199 -6.1654 0.7302 -7.4283 0.6836
-7.3111 0.8196 -6.1096 0.7302 -7.3933 0.6835
-7.2749 0.8193 -6.0538 0.7302 -7.3583 0.6834
-7.2388 0.819 -5.998 0.7302 -7.3232 0.6833
-7.2026 0.8187 -5.9422 0.7302 -7.2882 0.6832
-7.1664 0.8184 -5.8863 0.7302 -7.2531 0.6832
-7.1303 0.8181 -5.8305 0.7302 -7.2181 0.6831
-7.0941 0.8178 -5.7747 0.7302 -7.1831 0.683
-7.0579 0.8175 -5.7189 0.7302 -7.148 0.6829
-7.0217 0.8174 -5.6631 0.7302 -7.113 0.6828
-6.9856 0.8173 -5.6072 0.7302 -7.078 0.6827
-6.9494 0.8171 -5.5514 0.7302 -7.0429 0.6826
-6.9132 0.817 -5.4956 0.7302 -7.0079 0.6825
-6.877 0.8169 -5.4398 0.7302 -6.9728 0.6825
-6.8408 0.8167 -5.384 0.7302 -6.9378 0.6824
-6.8046 0.8166 -5.3282 0.7302 -6.9028 0.6823
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4.165 0.7421 11.5944 0.6735 3.717 0.641
4.2012 0.7419 11.6506 0.6722 3.7521 0.6408
4.2374 0.7417 11.7067 0.6709 3.7871 0.6407
4.2737 0.7415 11.7629 0.6696 3.8222 0.6406
4.3099 0.7413 11.819 0.6683 3.8573 0.6405
4.3461 0.7411 11.8752 0.667 3.8923 0.6403
4.3823 0.7409 11.9313 0.6657 3.9274 0.6399
4.4186 0.7407 11.9875 0.6642 3.9625 0.6395
4.4548 0.7406 12.0437 0.6628 3.9975 0.6392
4.491 0.7404 12.0998 0.6613 4.0326 0.6388
4.5272 0.7402 12.156 0.6598 4.0677 0.6385
4.5635 0.74 12.2122 0.6583 4.1027 0.6381
4.5997 0.7398 12.2684 0.6568 4.1378 0.6378
4.6359 0.7393 12.3246 0.6554 4.1729 0.6374
4.6722 0.7387 12.3807 0.6539 4.2079 0.6371
4.7084 0.7382 12.4369 0.6524 4.243 0.6368
4.7447 0.7377 12.4931 0.6509 4.2781 0.6364
4.7809 0.7371 12.5493 0.6494 4.3131 0.6361
4.8172 0.7366 12.6055 0.6479 4.3482 0.6358
4.8534 0.7361 12.6617 0.6463 4.3833 0.6355
4.8896 0.7356 12.7179 0.6448 4.4183 0.6352
4.9259 0.7351 12.7741 0.6433 4.4534 0.6349
4.9621 0.7346 12.8303 0.6419 4.4885 0.6346
4.9984 0.7342 12.8864 0.6404 4.5235 0.6343
5.0346 0.7337 12.9426 0.6389 4.5586 0.634
5.0709 0.7332 12.9988 0.6375 4.5937 0.6338
5.1071 0.7328 13.055 0.6361 4.6288 0.6335
5.1434 0.7323 13.1112 0.6346 4.6638 0.6332
5.1796 0.7319 13.1674 0.6332 4.6989 0.633
5.2158 0.7314 13.2236 0.6318 4.734 0.6327
5.2521 0.731 13.2798 0.6305 4.769 0.6324
5.2883 0.7305 13.336 0.6291 4.8041 0.6322
5.3246 0.73 13.3922 0.6277 4.8392 0.6319
5.3608 0.7295 13.4484 0.6264 4.8742 0.6317
5.3971 0.729 13.5045 0.625 4.9093 0.6314
5.4333 0.7286 13.5607 0.6237 4.9444 0.6312
5.4696 0.7281 13.6169 0.6224 4.9794 0.631
5.5058 0.7277 13.6731 0.6211 5.0145 0.6307
5.5421 0.7272 13.7293 0.6198 5.0496 0.6305
5.5783 0.7268 13.7855 0.6185 5.0846 0.6303
5.6146 0.7263 13.8417 0.6173 5.1197 0.63
5.6508 0.7259 13.8979 0.616 5.1548 0.6298
5.6871 0.7255 13.9541 0.6147 5.1898 0.6296
5.7233 0.7251 14.0103 0.6135 5.2249 0.6294
5.7596 0.7246 14.0664 0.6123 5.26 0.6292
5.7958 0.7242 14.1226 0.6111 5.295 0.629
5.8321 0.7238 14.1788 0.6098 5.3301 0.6288
5.8683 0.7234 14.235 0.6086 5.3652 0.6285
5.9046 0.723 14.2912 0.6074 5.4003 0.6282
5.9408 0.7227 14.3474 0.6063 5.4353 0.6279
5.9771 0.7223 14.4036 0.6051 5.4704 0.6277
6.0133 0.7219 14.4598 0.6039 5.5055 0.6274
6.0496 0.7215 14.516 0.6028 5.5406 0.627
6.0858 0.7211 14.5722 0.6016 5.5756 0.6265
6.1221 0.7208 14.6284 0.6005 5.6107 0.6261
6.1583 0.7204 14.6845 0.5993 5.6458 0.6256
6.1946 0.7201 14.7407 0.5982 5.6809 0.6251
6.2308 0.7197 14.7969 0.5971 5.716 0.6246
6.2671 0.7194 14.8531 0.596 5.7511 0.6242
6.3033 0.719 14.9093 0.5949 5.7862 0.6237
6.3396 0.7187 14.9655 0.5938 5.8212 0.6233
6.3758 0.7183 15.0217 0.5927 5.8563 0.6228
6.4121 0.718 15.0779 0.5917 5.8914 0.6224
6.4483 0.7177 15.1341 0.5906 5.9265 0.622
6.4846 0.7172 15.1903 0.5896 5.9616 0.6215
6.5209 0.7166 15.2464 0.5885 5.9967 0.6211
6.5571 0.716 15.3026 0.5875 6.0318 0.6207
6.5934 0.7154 15.3588 0.5864 6.0668 0.6203
6.6297 0.7148 15.415 0.5854 6.1019 0.6199
6.6659 0.7142 15.4712 0.5844 6.137 0.6195
6.7022 0.7136 15.5274 0.5834 6.1721 0.6191
6.7385 0.7131 15.5836 0.5824 6.2072 0.6187
6.7747 0.7125 15.6398 0.5814 6.2423 0.6183
6.811 0.7119 15.696 0.5804 6.2773 0.6179
6.8473 0.7114 15.7522 0.5794 6.3124 0.6175
6.8835 0.7108 15.8084 0.5784 6.3475 0.6172
6.9198 0.7103 15.8645 0.5775 6.3826 0.6168
6.9561 0.7098 15.9207 0.5765 6.4177 0.6164
6.9924 0.7092 15.9769 0.5756 6.4528 0.6161
7.0286 0.7087 16.0331 0.5746 6.4879 0.6157
7.0649 0.7082 16.0893 0.5737 6.5229 0.6154
7.1012 0.7077 16.1455 0.5727 6.558 0.615
7.1374 0.7071 16.2017 0.5718 6.5931 0.6147
7.1737 0.7066 16.2579 0.5709 6.6282 0.6143
7.21 0.7061 16.3141 0.57 6.6633 0.614
7.2462 0.7056 16.3703 0.5691 6.6984 0.6136
7.2825 0.7052 16.4265 0.5682 6.7335 0.6131
7.3188 0.7047 16.4826 0.5673 6.7686 0.6126
7.355 0.7042 16.5388 0.5664 6.8037 0.6121
7.3913 0.7037 16.595 0.5655 6.8387 0.6115
7.4276 0.7032 16.6512 0.5646 6.8738 0.611
7.4638 0.7028 16.7074 0.5637 6.9089 0.6105
7.5001 0.7023 16.7636 0.5629 6.944 0.61
7.5364 0.7019 16.8198 0.562 6.9791 0.6095
7.5726 0.7014 16.876 0.5612 7.0142 0.609
7.6089 0.701 16.9322 0.5603 7.0493 0.6085
7.6452 0.7005 16.9884 0.5595 7.0844 0.6081
7.6814 0.7001 17.0445 0.5586 7.1195 0.6076
7.7177 0.6996 17.1007 0.5578 7.1546 0.6071
7.754 0.6992 17.1569 0.557 7.1897 0.6066
7.7902 0.6988 17.2131 0.5561 7.2248 0.6062
7.8265 0.6982 17.2693 0.5553 7.2599 0.6057
7.8628 0.6974 17.3255 0.5545 7.295 0.6053
7.8991 0.6966 17.3817 0.5537 7.3301 0.6048
7.9355 0.6958 17.4379 0.5529 7.3652 0.6044
7.9718 0.6951 17.4941 0.5521 7.4003 0.6037
8.0081 0.6943 17.5503 0.5513 7.4354 0.6031
8.0444 0.6935 17.6065 0.5505 7.4705 0.6025
8.0807 0.6928 17.6626 0.5498 7.5057 0.6018
8.117 0.692 17.7188 0.549 7.5408 0.6011
8.1533 0.6913 17.775 0.5482 7.5759 0.6003
8.1896 0.6906 17.8312 0.5474 7.6111 0.5995
8.2259 0.6898 17.8874 0.5467 7.6462 0.5988
8.2622 0.6891 17.9436 0.5459 7.6814 0.598
8.2986 0.6884 17.9998 0.5452 7.7165 0.5973
8.3349 0.6877 18.056 0.5444 7.7516 0.5965
8.3712 0.687 18.1122 0.5437 7.7868 0.5958
8.4075 0.6863 18.1684 0.543 7.8219 0.5951
8.4438 0.6856 18.2245 0.5422 7.857 0.5944
8.4801 0.6849 18.2807 0.5415 7.8922 0.5937
8.5164 0.6843 18.3369 0.5408 7.9273 0.593
8.5527 0.6836 18.3931 0.54 7.9625 0.5923
8.589 0.6829 18.4493 0.5393 7.9976 0.5916
8.6254 0.6823 18.5055 0.5386 8.0327 0.5908
8.6617 0.6816 18.5617 0.5379 8.0679 0.5898
8.698 0.6808 18.6179 0.5372 8.1031 0.5888
8.7343 0.6799 18.6741 0.5365 8.1383 0.5877
8.7707 0.6791 18.7303 0.5358 8.1735 0.5867
8.807 0.6781 18.7865 0.5351 8.2087 0.5857
8.8434 0.6771 18.8426 0.5344 8.2439 0.5847
8.8798 0.6761 18.8988 0.5338 8.2791 0.5837
8.9161 0.6752 18.955 0.5331 8.3143 0.5828
8.9525 0.6742 19.0112 0.5324 8.3495 0.5817
8.9889 0.6732 19.0674 0.5317 8.3847 0.5805
9.0252 0.6723 19.1236 0.5311 8.42 0.5793
9.0616 0.6713 19.1798 0.5304 8.4552 0.5781
9.098 0.6704 19.236 0.5298 8.4905 0.5768
9.1343 0.6694 19.2922 0.5291 8.5257 0.5756
9.1707 0.6683 19.3484 0.5285 8.561 0.5743
9.2072 0.6671 19.4046 0.5278 8.5962 0.5731
9.2436 0.6659 19.4607 0.5272 8.6315 0.5718
9.28 0.6647 19.5169 0.5265 8.6668 0.5706
9.3164 0.6635 19.5731 0.5259 8.702 0.5694
9.3529 0.6623 19.6293 0.5253 8.7373 0.5682
9.3893 0.6611 19.6855 0.5246 8.7725 0.567
9.4257 0.6599 19.7417 0.524 8.8078 0.5658
9.4621 0.6587 19.7979 0.5234 8.843 0.5646
9.4986 0.6576 19.8541 0.5228 8.8783 0.5635
9.535 0.6564 19.9103 0.5222 8.9136 0.5623
9.5714 0.6553 19.9665 0.5215 8.9488 0.5612
9.6078 0.6542     8.9841 0.56
9.6443 0.653     9.0193 0.5589
9.6807 0.6519     9.0546 0.5578
9.7171 0.6508     9.0898 0.5567
9.7535 0.6497     9.1251 0.5556
9.79 0.6486     9.1604 0.5545
9.8264 0.6476     9.1956 0.5534
9.8628 0.6465     9.2309 0.5523
9.8992 0.6454     9.2661 0.5512
9.9357 0.6444     9.3014 0.5502
9.9721 0.6433     9.3366 0.5491
10.0085 0.6423     9.3719 0.5481
10.0449 0.6412     9.4072 0.547
10.0814 0.6402     9.4424 0.546
10.1178 0.6392     9.4777 0.545
10.1542 0.6382     9.5129 0.544
10.1906 0.6372     9.5482 0.543
10.2271 0.6362     9.5835 0.542
10.2635 0.6352     9.6187 0.541
10.2999 0.6342     9.654 0.54
10.3363 0.6332     9.6892 0.539
10.3728 0.6323     9.7245 0.538
10.4092 0.6313     9.7597 0.5371
10.4456 0.6303     9.795 0.5361
10.482 0.6294     9.8303 0.5352
10.5185 0.6285     9.8655 0.5342
10.5549 0.6275     9.9008 0.5333
10.5913 0.6266     9.936 0.5323
10.6277 0.6257     9.9713 0.5314
10.6642 0.6247     10.0065 0.5305
10.7006 0.6238     10.0418 0.5296
10.737 0.6229     10.0771 0.5287
10.7734 0.622     10.1123 0.5278
10.8099 0.6211     10.1476 0.5269
10.8463 0.6203     10.1828 0.526
10.8827 0.6194     10.2181 0.5251
10.9191 0.6185     10.2533 0.5243
10.9556 0.6176     10.2886 0.5234
10.992 0.6168     10.3239 0.5225
11.0284 0.6159     10.3591 0.5217
11.0648 0.6151     10.3944 0.5208
11.1013 0.6142     10.4296 0.52
11.1377 0.6134     10.4649 0.5191
11.1741 0.6125     10.5001 0.5183
11.2105 0.6117     10.5354 0.5175
11.247 0.6109     10.5707 0.5167
11.2834 0.6101     10.6059 0.5158
11.3198 0.6092     10.6412 0.515
11.3562 0.6084     10.6764 0.5142
11.3927 0.6076     10.7117 0.5134
11.4291 0.6068     10.747 0.5126
11.4655 0.606     10.7822 0.5118
11.5019 0.6053     10.8175 0.5111
11.5383 0.6045     10.8527 0.5103
11.5748 0.6037     10.888 0.5095
11.6112 0.6029     10.9232 0.5087
11.6476 0.6021     10.9585 0.508
11.684 0.6014     10.9938 0.5072
11.7205 0.6006     11.029 0.5064
11.7569 0.5999     11.0643 0.5057
11.7933 0.5991     11.0995 0.505
11.8297 0.5984     11.1348 0.5042
11.8662 0.5976     11.17 0.5035
11.9026 0.5969     11.2053 0.5027
11.939 0.5962     11.2406 0.502
11.9754 0.5954     11.2758 0.5013
12.0119 0.5947     11.3111 0.5006
12.0483 0.594     11.3463 0.4999
12.0847 0.5933     11.3816 0.4992
12.1211 0.5926     11.4168 0.4985
12.1576 0.5919     11.4521 0.4978
12.194 0.5912     11.4874 0.4971
12.2304 0.5905     11.5226 0.4964
12.2668 0.5898     11.5579 0.4957
12.3033 0.5891     11.5931 0.495
12.3397 0.5884     11.6284 0.4943
12.3761 0.5877     11.6637 0.4936
12.4125 0.587     11.6989 0.493
12.449 0.5864     11.7342 0.4923
12.4854 0.5857     11.7694 0.4916
12.5218 0.585     11.8047 0.491
12.5582 0.5844     11.8399 0.4903
12.5947 0.5837     11.8752 0.4897
12.6311 0.5831     11.9105 0.489
12.6675 0.5824     11.9457 0.4884
12.7039 0.5818     11.981 0.4877
12.7404 0.5811     12.0162 0.4871
12.7768 0.5805     12.0515 0.4865
12.8132 0.5799     12.0867 0.4858
12.8496 0.5792     12.122 0.4852
12.8861 0.5786     12.1573 0.4846
12.9225 0.578     12.1925 0.484
12.9589 0.5774     12.2278 0.4834
12.9953 0.5767     12.263 0.4828
13.0318 0.5761     12.2983 0.4822
13.0682 0.5755     12.3335 0.4815
13.1046 0.5749     12.3688 0.4809
13.141 0.5743     12.4041 0.4804
13.1775 0.5737     12.4393 0.4798
13.2139 0.5731     12.4746 0.4792
13.2503 0.5725     12.5098 0.4786
13.2867 0.5719     12.5451 0.478
13.3232 0.5713     12.5803 0.4774
13.3596 0.5707     12.6156 0.4768
13.396 0.5702     12.6509 0.4763
13.4324 0.5696     12.6861 0.4757
13.4689 0.569     12.7214 0.4751
13.5053 0.5684     12.7566 0.4746
13.5417 0.5679     12.7919 0.474
13.5781 0.5673     12.8272 0.4735
13.6146 0.5667     12.8624 0.4729
13.651 0.5662     12.8977 0.4723
13.6874 0.5656     12.9329 0.4718
13.7238 0.5651     12.9682 0.4712
13.7603 0.5645     13.0034 0.4707
13.7967 0.564     13.0387 0.4702
13.8331 0.5634     13.074 0.4696
13.8695 0.5629     13.1092 0.4691
13.906 0.5624     13.1445 0.4686
13.9424 0.5618     13.1797 0.468
13.9788 0.5613     13.215 0.4675
14.0152 0.5608     13.2502 0.467
14.0517 0.5602     13.2855 0.4665
14.0881 0.5597     13.3208 0.466
14.1245 0.5592     13.356 0.4654
14.1609 0.5587     13.3913 0.4649
14.1974 0.5581     13.4265 0.4644
14.2338 0.5576     13.4618 0.4639
14.2702 0.5571     13.497 0.4634
14.3066 0.5566     13.5323 0.4629
14.3431 0.5561     13.5676 0.4624
14.3795 0.5556     13.6028 0.4619
14.4159 0.5551     13.6381 0.4614
14.4523 0.5546     13.6733 0.4609
14.4888 0.5541     13.7086 0.4604
14.5252 0.5536     13.7439 0.46
14.5616 0.5531     13.7791 0.4595
14.598 0.5526     13.8144 0.459
14.6345 0.5521     13.8496 0.4585
14.6709 0.5517     13.8849 0.458
14.7073 0.5512     13.9201 0.4576
14.7437 0.5507     13.9554 0.4571
14.7802 0.5502     13.9907 0.4566
14.8166 0.5497     14.0259 0.4562
14.853 0.5493     14.0612 0.4557
14.8894 0.5488     14.0964 0.4552
14.9259 0.5483     14.1317 0.4548
14.9623 0.5479     14.1669 0.4543
14.9987 0.5474     14.2022 0.4539
15.0351 0.5469     14.2375 0.4534
15.0716 0.5465     14.2727 0.453
15.108 0.546     14.308 0.4525
15.1444 0.5456     14.3432 0.4521
15.1808 0.5451     14.3785 0.4516
15.2173 0.5447     14.4137 0.4512
15.2537 0.5442     14.449 0.4507
15.2901 0.5438     14.4843 0.4503
15.3265 0.5433     14.5195 0.4499
15.363 0.5429     14.5548 0.4494
15.3994 0.5424     14.59 0.449
15.4358 0.542     14.6253 0.4486
15.4722 0.5416     14.6605 0.4481
15.5087 0.5411     14.6958 0.4477
15.5451 0.5407     14.7311 0.4473
15.5815 0.5403     14.7663 0.4469
15.6179 0.5399     14.8016 0.4465
15.6544 0.5394     14.8368 0.446
15.6908 0.539     14.8721 0.4456
15.7272 0.5386     14.9074 0.4452
15.7636 0.5382     14.9426 0.4448
15.8001 0.5377     14.9779 0.4444
15.8365 0.5373     15.0131 0.444
15.8729 0.5369     15.0484 0.4436
15.9093 0.5365     15.0836 0.4432
15.9458 0.5361     15.1189 0.4428
15.9822 0.5357     15.1542 0.4424
16.0186 0.5353     15.1894 0.442
16.055 0.5349     15.2247 0.4416
16.0915 0.5345     15.2599 0.4412
16.1279 0.5341     15.2952 0.4408
16.1643 0.5337     15.3304 0.4404
16.2007 0.5333     15.3657 0.44
16.2372 0.5329     15.401 0.4396
16.2736 0.5325     15.4362 0.4392
16.31 0.5321     15.4715 0.4389
16.3464 0.5317     15.5067 0.4385
16.3829 0.5313     15.542 0.4381
16.4193 0.5309     15.5772 0.4377
16.4557 0.5306     15.6125 0.4373
16.4921 0.5302     15.6478 0.437
16.5286 0.5298     15.683 0.4366
16.565 0.5294     15.7183 0.4362
16.6014 0.529     15.7535 0.4359
16.6378 0.5287     15.7888 0.4355
16.6743 0.5283     15.824 0.4351
16.7107 0.5279     15.8593 0.4348
16.7471 0.5275     15.8946 0.4344
16.7835 0.5272     15.9298 0.434
16.82 0.5268     15.9651 0.4337
16.8564 0.5264     16.0003 0.4333
16.8928 0.5261     16.0356 0.433
16.9292 0.5257     16.0709 0.4326
16.9657 0.5253     16.1061 0.4322
17.0021 0.525     16.1414 0.4319
17.0385 0.5246     16.1766 0.4315
17.0749 0.5243     16.2119 0.4312
17.1114 0.5239     16.2471 0.4308
17.1478 0.5236     16.2824 0.4305
17.1842 0.5232     16.3177 0.4302
17.2206 0.5228     16.3529 0.4298
17.2571 0.5225     16.3882 0.4295
17.2935 0.5221     16.4234 0.4291
17.3299 0.5218     16.4587 0.4288
17.3663 0.5215     16.4939 0.4285
17.4028 0.5211     16.5292 0.4281
17.4392 0.5208     16.5645 0.4278
17.4756 0.5204     16.5997 0.4275
17.512 0.5201     16.635 0.4271
17.5485 0.5198     16.6702 0.4268
17.5849 0.5194     16.7055 0.4265
17.6213 0.5191     16.7407 0.4261
17.6577 0.5187     16.776 0.4258
17.6942 0.5184     16.8113 0.4255
17.7306 0.5181     16.8465 0.4252
17.767 0.5178     16.8818 0.4248
17.8034 0.5174     16.917 0.4245
17.8399 0.5171     16.9523 0.4242
17.8763 0.5168     16.9876 0.4239
17.9127 0.5164     17.0228 0.4236
17.9491 0.5161     17.0581 0.4233
17.9856 0.5158     17.0933 0.4229
18.022 0.5155     17.1286 0.4226
18.0584 0.5152     17.1638 0.4223
18.0948 0.5148     17.1991 0.422
18.1313 0.5145     17.2344 0.4217
18.1677 0.5142     17.2696 0.4214
18.2041 0.5139     17.3049 0.4211
18.2405 0.5136     17.3401 0.4208
18.277 0.5133     17.3754 0.4205
18.3134 0.513     17.4106 0.4202
18.3498 0.5126     17.4459 0.4199
18.3862 0.5123     17.4812 0.4196
18.4227 0.512     17.5164 0.4193
18.4591 0.5117     17.5517 0.419
18.4955 0.5114     17.5869 0.4187
18.5319 0.5111     17.6222 0.4184
18.5684 0.5108     17.6574 0.4181
18.6048 0.5105     17.6927 0.4178
18.6412 0.5102     17.728 0.4175
18.6776 0.5099     17.7632 0.4172
18.7141 0.5096     17.7985 0.4169
18.7505 0.5093     17.8337 0.4166
18.7869 0.509     17.869 0.4163
18.8233 0.5087     17.9042 0.4161
18.8598 0.5084     17.9395 0.4158
18.8962 0.5082     17.9748 0.4155
18.9326 0.5079     18.01 0.4152
18.969 0.5076     18.0453 0.4149
19.0055 0.5073     18.0805 0.4146
19.0419 0.507     18.1158 0.4144
19.0783 0.5067     18.1511 0.4141
19.1147 0.5064     18.1863 0.4138
19.1512 0.5061     18.2216 0.4135
19.1876 0.5059     18.2568 0.4133
19.224 0.5056     18.2921 0.413
19.2604 0.5053     18.3273 0.4127
19.2969 0.505     18.3626 0.4124
19.3333 0.5047     18.3979 0.4122
19.3697 0.5045     18.4331 0.4119
19.4061 0.5042     18.4684 0.4116
19.4426 0.5039     18.5036 0.4114
19.479 0.5036     18.5389 0.4111
19.5154 0.5034     18.5741 0.4108
19.5518 0.5031     18.6094 0.4106
19.5883 0.5028     18.6447 0.4103
19.6247 0.5025     18.6799 0.41
19.6611 0.5023     18.7152 0.4098
19.6975 0.502     18.7504 0.4095
19.734 0.5017     18.7857 0.4093
19.7704 0.5015     18.8209 0.409
19.8068 0.5012     18.8562 0.4087
19.8432 0.5009     18.8915 0.4085
19.8796 0.5007     18.9267 0.4082
19.9161 0.5004     18.962 0.408
19.9525 0.5002     18.9972 0.4077
19.9889 0.4999     19.0325 0.4075
        19.0678 0.4072
        19.103 0.407
        19.1383 0.4067
        19.1735 0.4065
        19.2088 0.4062
        19.244 0.406
        19.2793 0.4057
        19.3146 0.4055
        19.3498 0.4052
        19.3851 0.405
        19.4203 0.4047
        19.4556 0.4045
        19.4908 0.4043
        19.5261 0.404
        19.5614 0.4038
        19.5966 0.4035
        19.6319 0.4033
        19.6671 0.4031
        19.7024 0.4028
        19.7376 0.4026
        19.7729 0.4024
        19.8082 0.4021
        19.8434 0.4019
        19.8787 0.4017
        19.9139 0.4014
        19.9492 0.4012
        19.9844 0.401

Data for Figure 6 (Bottom Right Panel)

Baseline Monetary Policy RuleMore aggressive on inflationMore aggressive on output gap
0.3571
0.3052
0.2711

Figure 7. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against the Backdrop of Domestic Recession Alternative Trade Elasticities*

Data for Figure 7 immediately follows.

$ ^{*}$ The baseline trade elasticity is 1.1; the high trade elasticity is 1.5; the low trade elasticity is 0.75.
$ ^{**}$ The spillover effects are defined as the ratio of the response of home GDP (in deviation from the path implied by the initial baseline recession) to the response of foreign GDP (also in deviation from its initial path). The measure shown is an average of the spillover effects over the first four quarters.

Data for Figure 7 (Top Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDPBaseline Trade ElasticityAverage percent change in foreign GDPHigh Trade ElasticityAverage percent change in foreign GDPLow Trade Elasticity
-9.4813 13 -9.4898 16 -9.4545 12
-9.4451 13 -9.4595 16 -9.3911 12
-9.409 13 -9.4292 16 -9.3278 12
-9.3728 13 -9.3989 16 -9.2645 12
-9.3366 13 -9.3685 16 -9.2011 12
-9.3005 13 -9.3382 16 -9.1378 12
-9.2643 13 -9.3079 16 -9.0745 12
-9.2281 13 -9.2775 16 -9.0111 12
-9.192 13 -9.2472 15 -8.9478 12
-9.1558 13 -9.2169 15 -8.8845 12
-9.1196 13 -9.1865 15 -8.8211 12
-9.0834 13 -9.1562 15 -8.7578 12
-9.0473 13 -9.1258 15 -8.6945 12
-9.0111 13 -9.0955 15 -8.6311 12
-8.9749 13 -9.0651 15 -8.5678 12
-8.9388 13 -9.0348 15 -8.5044 12
-8.9026 13 -9.0044 15 -8.4411 12
-8.8664 13 -8.9741 15 -8.3778 12
-8.8303 13 -8.9437 15 -8.3144 12
-8.7941 13 -8.9133 15 -8.2511 12
-8.7579 13 -8.883 15 -8.1878 12
-8.7217 13 -8.8526 15 -8.1244 12
-8.6856 13 -8.8223 15 -8.0611 12
-8.6494 13 -8.7919 15 -7.9978 12
-8.6132 13 -8.7616 15 -7.9344 12
-8.5771 13 -8.7312 15 -7.8711 12
-8.5409 13 -8.7009 15 -7.8077 12
-8.5047 13 -8.6705 15 -7.7444 12
-8.4686 13 -8.6402 15 -7.6811 12
-8.4324 13 -8.6098 15 -7.6177 12
-8.3962 13 -8.5795 15 -7.5544 12
-8.36 13 -8.5491 15 -7.4911 12
-8.3239 13 -8.5188 15 -7.4277 12
-8.2877 13 -8.4884 15 -7.3644 12
-8.2515 13 -8.4581 15 -7.3011 12
-8.2154 13 -8.4277 15 -7.2377 12
-8.1792 13 -8.3974 15 -7.1744 12
-8.143 13 -8.367 15 -7.111 12
-8.1069 13 -8.3367 15 -7.0477 11
-8.0707 13 -8.3063 15 -6.9844 11
-8.0345 13 -8.276 14 -6.921 11
-7.9983 13 -8.2456 14 -6.8577 11
-7.9622 13 -8.2152 14 -6.7943 11
-7.926 13 -8.1848 14 -6.731 11
-7.8898 13 -8.1545 14 -6.6677 11
-7.8537 13 -8.1241 14 -6.6043 11
-7.8175 13 -8.0937 14 -6.541 11
-7.7813 13 -8.0633 14 -6.4776 11
-7.7452 13 -8.033 14 -6.4143 11
-7.709 13 -8.0026 14 -6.3509 11
-7.6728 13 -7.9722 14 -6.2876 11
-7.6366 13 -7.9418 14 -6.2243 11
-7.6005 13 -7.9115 14 -6.1609 11
-7.5643 13 -7.8811 14 -6.0976 11
-7.5281 13 -7.8507 14 -6.0342 11
-7.492 13 -7.8203 14 -5.9709 11
-7.4558 13 -7.7899 14 -5.9076 11
-7.4196 13 -7.7596 14 -5.8442 11
-7.3835 13 -7.7292 14 -5.7809 11
-7.3473 13 -7.6988 14 -5.7175 11
-7.3111 13 -7.6684 14 -5.6542 11
-7.2749 13 -7.6381 14 -5.5908 11
-7.2388 13 -7.6077 14 -5.5275 11
-7.2026 13 -7.5773 14 -5.4642 11
-7.1664 13 -7.5469 14 -5.4008 11
-7.1303 13 -7.5166 14 -5.3375 11
-7.0941 13 -7.4862 14 -5.2741 11
-7.0579 13 -7.4558 14 -5.2108 11
-7.0217 12 -7.4254 14 -5.1474 11
-6.9856 12 -7.3951 14 -5.0841 11
-6.9494 12 -7.3647 14 -5.0208 11
-6.9132 12 -7.3343 14 -4.9574 11
-6.877 12 -7.3039 14 -4.8941 11
-6.8408 12 -7.2736 14 -4.8307 11
-6.8046 12 -7.2432 14 -4.7674 11
-6.7685 12 -7.2128 14 -4.7041 11
-6.7323 12 -7.1824 14 -4.6407 11
-6.6961 12 -7.1521 14 -4.5774 11
-6.6599 12 -7.1217 14 -4.514 11
-6.6237 12 -7.0913 14 -4.4507 11
-6.5875 12 -7.0609 14 -4.3873 11
-6.5514 12 -7.0306 14 -4.324 11
-6.5152 12 -7.0002 14 -4.2607 11
-6.479 12 -6.9698 14 -4.1973 11
-6.4428 12 -6.9394 14 -4.134 11
-6.4066 12 -6.9091 14 -4.0706 11
-6.3704 12 -6.8787 14 -4.0073 11
-6.3343 12 -6.8483 14 -3.944 11
-6.2981 12 -6.8179 14 -3.8806 11
-6.2619 12 -6.7875 13 -3.8173 11
-6.2257 12 -6.7571 13 -3.7539 11
-6.1895 12 -6.7267 13 -3.6906 11
-6.1533 12 -6.6963 13 -3.6272 11
-6.1172 12 -6.6659 13 -3.5639 11
-6.081 12 -6.6355 13 -3.5006 11
-6.0448 12 -6.6051 13 -3.4372 11
-6.0086 12 -6.5747 13 -3.3739 11
-5.9724 12 -6.5443 13 -3.3105 11
-5.9362 12 -6.5139 13 -3.2472 11
-5.9001 12 -6.4835 13 -3.1838 11
-5.8639 12 -6.4531 13 -3.1205 11
-5.8277 12 -6.4227 13 -3.0572 11
-5.7915 12 -6.3923 13 -2.9938 11
-5.7553 12 -6.3619 13 -2.9305 11
-5.7191 12 -6.3315 13 -2.8671 11
-5.6829 12 -6.3011 13 -2.8038 11
-5.6468 12 -6.2707 13 -2.7405 11
-5.6106 12 -6.2403 13 -2.6771 11
-5.5744 12 -6.2099 13 -2.6138 11
-5.5382 12 -6.1795 13 -2.5504 11
-5.502 12 -6.1491 13 -2.4871 11
-5.4658 12 -6.1187 13 -2.4237 11
-5.4297 12 -6.0883 13 -2.3604 11
-5.3935 12 -6.0579 13 -2.2971 11
-5.3573 12 -6.0275 13 -2.2337 11
-5.3211 12 -5.9971 13 -2.1704 11
-5.2849 12 -5.9667 13 -2.107 11
-5.2487 12 -5.9363 13 -2.0437 11
-5.2126 12 -5.9059 13 -1.9804 11
-5.1764 12 -5.8755 13 -1.917 11
-5.1402 12 -5.8451 13 -1.8537 11
-5.104 12 -5.8147 13 -1.7903 11
-5.0678 12 -5.7843 13 -1.727 11
-5.0316 12 -5.7539 13 -1.6636 11
-4.9955 12 -5.7235 13 -1.6003 11
-4.9593 12 -5.6931 13 -1.537 11
-4.9231 12 -5.6627 13 -1.4736 11
-4.8869 12 -5.6323 13 -1.4103 11
-4.8507 12 -5.6019 13 -1.3469 11
-4.8145 12 -5.5715 13 -1.2836 11
-4.7784 12 -5.5411 13 -1.2202 11
-4.7422 12 -5.5107 13 -1.1569 11
-4.706 12 -5.4803 13 -1.0936 11
-4.6698 12 -5.4499 13 -1.0302 11
-4.6336 12 -5.4195 13 -0.9669 11
-4.5974 12 -5.3891 13 -0.9035 11
-4.5613 12 -5.3587 13 -0.8402 11
-4.5251 12 -5.3283 13 -0.7769 11
-4.4889 12 -5.2979 13 -0.7135 11
-4.4527 12 -5.2675 13 -0.6502 11
-4.4165 12 -5.2371 13 -0.5868 11
-4.3803 12 -5.2067 13 -0.5235 11
-4.3441 12 -5.1763 13 -0.4601 10
-4.308 12 -5.1459 13 -0.3968 10
-4.2718 12 -5.1155 13 -0.3334 10
-4.2356 12 -5.0851 13 -0.2701 10
-4.1994 12 -5.0547 13 -0.2068 10
-4.1632 12 -5.0243 13 -0.1434 10
-4.127 12 -4.9939 13 -0.0801 10
-4.0909 12 -4.9635 13 -0.0167 10
-4.0547 12 -4.9331 13 0.0466 10
-4.0185 12 -4.9027 12 0.11 10
-3.9823 12 -4.8722 12 0.1733 10
-3.9461 12 -4.8418 12 0.2367 10
-3.9099 11 -4.8114 12 0.3 10
-3.8737 11 -4.7809 12 0.3634 10
-3.8375 11 -4.7505 12 0.4267 10
-3.8013 11 -4.7201 12 0.4901 10
-3.7651 11 -4.6897 12 0.5534 10
-3.7289 11 -4.6592 12 0.6168 10
-3.6927 11 -4.6288 12 0.6801 10
-3.6566 11 -4.5984 12 0.7434 10
-3.6204 11 -4.5679 12 0.8068 10
-3.5842 11 -4.5375 12 0.8701 10
-3.548 11 -4.5071 12 0.9335 10
-3.5118 11 -4.4767 12 0.9968 10
-3.4756 11 -4.4462 12 1.0602 10
-3.4394 11 -4.4158 12 1.1235 10
-3.4032 11 -4.3854 12 1.1869 10
-3.367 11 -4.3549 12 1.2502 10
-3.3308 11 -4.3245 12 1.3136 10
-3.2946 11 -4.2941 12 1.3769 10
-3.2584 11 -4.2637 12 1.4403 10
-3.2222 11 -4.2332 12 1.5036 10
-3.186 11 -4.2028 12 1.567 10
-3.1498 11 -4.1724 12 1.6303 10
-3.1136 11 -4.1419 12 1.6936 10
-3.0774 11 -4.1115 12 1.757 10
-3.0412 11 -4.0811 12 1.8203 10
-3.005 11 -4.0507 12 1.8837 10
-2.9688 11 -4.0202 12 1.947 10
-2.9326 11 -3.9898 12 2.0104 10
-2.8964 11 -3.9594 12 2.0737 10
-2.8602 11 -3.9289 12 2.1371 10
-2.824 11 -3.8985 12 2.2004 10
-2.7878 11 -3.8681 12 2.2638 10
-2.7516 11 -3.8377 12 2.3271 10
-2.7154 11 -3.8072 12 2.3905 10
-2.6792 11 -3.7768 12 2.4538 10
-2.643 11 -3.7464 12 2.5172 10
-2.6068 11 -3.7159 12 2.5805 10
-2.5706 11 -3.6855 12 2.6438 10
-2.5344 11 -3.6551 12 2.7072 10
-2.4982 11 -3.6247 12 2.7705 10
-2.462 11 -3.5942 12 2.8339 10
-2.4258 11 -3.5638 12 2.8972 10
-2.3896 11 -3.5334 12 2.9606 10
-2.3534 11 -3.503 12 3.0239 10
-2.3172 11 -3.4725 12 3.0873 10
-2.281 11 -3.4421 12 3.1506 10
-2.2448 11 -3.4117 12 3.214 10
-2.2086 11 -3.3812 12 3.2773 10
-2.1724 11 -3.3508 12 3.3407 10
-2.1362 11 -3.3204 12 3.404 10
-2.1 11 -3.29 12 3.4674 10
-2.0638 11 -3.2595 12 3.5307 10
-2.0276 11 -3.2291 12 3.5941 10
-1.9915 11 -3.1987 12 3.6574 10
-1.9553 11 -3.1682 12 3.7207 10
-1.9191 11 -3.1378 12 3.7841 10
-1.8829 11 -3.1074 12 3.8474 10
-1.8467 11 -3.077 12 3.9108 10
-1.8105 11 -3.0465 12 3.9741 10
-1.7743 11 -3.0161 12 4.0375 10
-1.7381 11 -2.9857 12 4.1008 10
-1.7019 11 -2.9552 12 4.1642 10
-1.6657 11 -2.9248 12 4.2275 10
-1.6295 11 -2.8944 12 4.2909 10
-1.5933 11 -2.864 12 4.3542 10
-1.5571 11 -2.8335 11 4.4176 10
-1.5209 11 -2.8031 11 4.4809 10
-1.4847 11 -2.7726 11 4.5443 10
-1.4485 11 -2.7421 11 4.6076 10
-1.4123 11 -2.7117 11 4.6709 10
-1.3761 11 -2.6812 11 4.7343 10
-1.3399 11 -2.6508 11 4.7976 10
-1.3037 11 -2.6203 11 4.861 10
-1.2675 11 -2.5899 11 4.9243 10
-1.2313 11 -2.5594 11 4.9877 10
-1.1951 11 -2.5289 11 5.051 10
-1.1589 11 -2.4985 11 5.1144 10
-1.1227 11 -2.468 11 5.1777 10
-1.0865 11 -2.4376 11 5.2411 10
-1.0503 11 -2.4071 11 5.3044 10
-1.0141 11 -2.3767 11 5.3678 10
-0.9779 11 -2.3462 11 5.4311 10
-0.9417 11 -2.3157 11 5.4945 10
-0.9055 11 -2.2853 11 5.5578 10
-0.8693 11 -2.2548 11 5.6212 9
-0.8331 11 -2.2244 11 5.6845 9
-0.7969 11 -2.1939 11 5.7479 9
-0.7607 11 -2.1635 11 5.8112 9
-0.7245 10 -2.133 11 5.8746 9
-0.6883 10 -2.1025 11 5.9379 9
-0.6521 10 -2.0721 11 6.0013 9
-0.6159 10 -2.0416 11 6.0646 9
-0.5797 10 -2.0112 11 6.128 9
-0.5435 10 -1.9807 11 6.1913 9
-0.5072 10 -1.9503 11 6.2547 9
-0.471 10 -1.9198 11 6.318 9
-0.4348 10 -1.8893 11 6.3814 9
-0.3986 10 -1.8589 11 6.4447 9
-0.3624 10 -1.8284 11 6.5081 9
-0.3262 10 -1.798 11 6.5714 9
-0.29 10 -1.7675 11 6.6348 9
-0.2538 10 -1.7371 11 6.6981 9
-0.2175 10 -1.7066 11 6.7615 9
-0.1813 10 -1.6761 11 6.8248 9
-0.1451 10 -1.6457 11 6.8882 9
-0.1089 10 -1.6152 11 6.9515 9
-0.0727 10 -1.5848 11 7.0149 9
-0.0365 10 -1.5543 11 7.0782 9
-0.0003 10 -1.5239 11 7.1416 9
0.0359 10 -1.4934 11 7.2049 9
0.0722 10 -1.4629 11 7.2683 9
0.1084 10 -1.4325 11 7.3316 9
0.1446 10 -1.402 11 7.395 9
0.1808 10 -1.3716 11 7.4583 9
0.217 10 -1.3411 11 7.5217 9
0.2532 10 -1.3107 11 7.585 9
0.2894 10 -1.2802 11 7.6484 9
0.3256 10 -1.2497 11 7.7117 9
0.3619 10 -1.2193 11 7.7751 9
0.3981 10 -1.1888 11 7.8384 9
0.4343 10 -1.1584 11 7.9018 9
0.4705 10 -1.1279 11 7.9651 9
0.5067 10 -1.0975 11 8.0285 9
0.5429 10 -1.067 11 8.0918 9
0.5791 10 -1.0365 11 8.1552 9
0.6153 10 -1.0061 11 8.2185 9
0.6515 10 -0.9756 11 8.2819 9
0.6878 10 -0.9452 11 8.3452 9
0.724 10 -0.9147 11 8.4086 9
0.7602 10 -0.8843 11 8.4719 9
0.7964 10 -0.8538 11 8.5353 9
0.8326 10 -0.8233 11 8.5986 9
0.8688 10 -0.7929 10 8.662 9
0.905 10 -0.7624 10 8.7253 9
0.9412 10 -0.7319 10 8.7887 9
0.9775 10 -0.7014 10 8.852 9
1.0137 10 -0.6709 10 8.9154 9
1.0499 10 -0.6404 10 8.9787 9
1.0861 10 -0.6099 10 9.0421 9
1.1223 10 -0.5795 10 9.1054 9
1.1585 10 -0.549 10 9.1688 9
1.1947 10 -0.5185 10 9.2321 9
1.2309 10 -0.488 10 9.2955 9
1.2672 10 -0.4575 10 9.3588 9
1.3034 10 -0.427 10 9.4222 8
1.3396 10 -0.3965 10 9.4855 8
1.3758 10 -0.366 10 9.5489 8
1.412 10 -0.3355 10 9.6123 8
1.4482 10 -0.3051 10 9.6756 8
1.4844 10 -0.2746 10 9.739 8
1.5206 10 -0.2441 10 9.8023 8
1.5569 10 -0.2136 10 9.8657 8
1.5931 10 -0.1831 10 9.929 8
1.6293 10 -0.1526 10 9.9924 8
1.6655 10 -0.1221 10 10.0557 8
1.7017 10 -0.0916 10 10.1191 8
1.7379 10 -0.0612 10 10.1824 8
1.7741 10 -0.0307 10 10.2458 8
1.8103 10 -0.0002 10 10.3091 8
1.8466 10 0.0303 10 10.3725 7
1.8828 10 0.0608 10 10.4358 7
1.919 10 0.0913 10 10.4992 7
1.9552 10 0.1218 10 10.5625 7
1.9914 10 0.1523 10 10.6259 7
2.0276 10 0.1827 10 10.6893 7
2.0638 10 0.2132 10 10.7526 7
2.1 10 0.2437 10 10.816 7
2.1363 10 0.2742 10 10.8793 7
2.1725 9 0.3047 10 10.9427 7
2.2087 9 0.3352 10 11.006 7
2.2449 9 0.3657 10 11.0694 7
2.2811 9 0.3962 10 11.1327 7
2.3174 9 0.4266 10 11.1961 7
2.3536 9 0.4571 10 11.2595 7
2.3898 9 0.4876 10 11.3228 7
2.4261 9 0.5181 10 11.3862 7
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    18.4601 0    
    18.491 0    
    18.5219 0    
    18.5529 0    
    18.5838 0    
    18.6147 0    
    18.6457 0    
    18.6766 0    
    18.7076 0    
    18.7385 0    
    18.7694 0    
    18.8004 0    
    18.8313 0    
    18.8623 0    
    18.8932 0    
    18.9241 0    
    18.9551 0    
    18.986 0    
    19.0169 0    
    19.0479 0    
    19.0788 0    
    19.1098 0    
    19.1407 0    
    19.1716 0    
    19.2026 0    
    19.2335 0    
    19.2645 0    
    19.2954 0    
    19.3263 0    
    19.3573 0    
    19.3882 0    
    19.4191 0    
    19.4501 0    
    19.481 0    
    19.512 0    
    19.5429 0    
    19.5738 0    
    19.6048 0    
    19.6357 0    
    19.6666 0    
    19.6976 0    
    19.7285 0    
    19.7595 0    
    19.7904 0    
    19.8213 0    
    19.8523 0    
    19.8832 0    
    19.9142 0    
    19.9451 0    
    19.976 0    

Data for Figure 7 (Bottom Left Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDPBaseline Trade ElasticityAverage percent change in foreign GDPHigh Trade ElasticityAverage percent change in foreign GDPLow Trade Elasticity
-9.4813 0.8327 -9.4898 1.2069 -9.4545 0.5039
-9.4451 0.8325 -9.4595 1.2064 -9.3911 0.5038
-9.409 0.8323 -9.4292 1.2058 -9.3278 0.5037
-9.3728 0.8322 -9.3989 1.2053 -9.2645 0.5036
-9.3366 0.832 -9.3685 1.2047 -9.2011 0.5035
-9.3005 0.8318 -9.3382 1.2041 -9.1378 0.5034
-9.2643 0.8316 -9.3079 1.2036 -9.0745 0.5033
-9.2281 0.8315 -9.2775 1.203 -9.0111 0.5032
-9.192 0.8313 -9.2472 1.2025 -8.9478 0.5031
-9.1558 0.8311 -9.2169 1.202 -8.8845 0.503
-9.1196 0.8309 -9.1865 1.2016 -8.8211 0.5029
-9.0834 0.8307 -9.1562 1.2012 -8.7578 0.5028
-9.0473 0.8306 -9.1258 1.2007 -8.6945 0.5026
-9.0111 0.8304 -9.0955 1.2003 -8.6311 0.5025
-8.9749 0.8302 -9.0651 1.1998 -8.5678 0.5024
-8.9388 0.83 -9.0348 1.1994 -8.5044 0.5023
-8.9026 0.8298 -9.0044 1.1989 -8.4411 0.5022
-8.8664 0.8296 -8.9741 1.1985 -8.3778 0.5021
-8.8303 0.8294 -8.9437 1.198 -8.3144 0.5019
-8.7941 0.8292 -8.9133 1.1976 -8.2511 0.5018
-8.7579 0.829 -8.883 1.1971 -8.1878 0.5017
-8.7217 0.8288 -8.8526 1.1966 -8.1244 0.5016
-8.6856 0.8286 -8.8223 1.1961 -8.0611 0.5014
-8.6494 0.8284 -8.7919 1.1957 -7.9978 0.5013
-8.6132 0.8282 -8.7616 1.1952 -7.9344 0.5012
-8.5771 0.828 -8.7312 1.1947 -7.8711 0.501
-8.5409 0.8278 -8.7009 1.1942 -7.8077 0.5009
-8.5047 0.8276 -8.6705 1.1937 -7.7444 0.5008
-8.4686 0.8274 -8.6402 1.1933 -7.6811 0.5006
-8.4324 0.8272 -8.6098 1.1928 -7.6177 0.5005
-8.3962 0.827 -8.5795 1.1923 -7.5544 0.5003
-8.36 0.8268 -8.5491 1.1918 -7.4911 0.5002
-8.3239 0.8265 -8.5188 1.1912 -7.4277 0.5
-8.2877 0.8263 -8.4884 1.1907 -7.3644 0.4999
-8.2515 0.8261 -8.4581 1.1902 -7.3011 0.4997
-8.2154 0.8259 -8.4277 1.1897 -7.2377 0.4995
-8.1792 0.8257 -8.3974 1.1892 -7.1744 0.4994
-8.143 0.8254 -8.367 1.1887 -7.111 0.4992
-8.1069 0.8252 -8.3367 1.1881 -7.0477 0.4991
-8.0707 0.825 -8.3063 1.1876 -6.9844 0.4991
-8.0345 0.8247 -8.276 1.1872 -6.921 0.4991
-7.9983 0.8245 -8.2456 1.1868 -6.8577 0.499
-7.9622 0.8243 -8.2152 1.1864 -6.7943 0.499
-7.926 0.824 -8.1848 1.186 -6.731 0.499
-7.8898 0.8238 -8.1545 1.1857 -6.6677 0.499
-7.8537 0.8235 -8.1241 1.1853 -6.6043 0.499
-7.8175 0.8233 -8.0937 1.1849 -6.541 0.499
-7.7813 0.823 -8.0633 1.1845 -6.4776 0.499
-7.7452 0.8228 -8.033 1.1841 -6.4143 0.4989
-7.709 0.8225 -8.0026 1.1837 -6.3509 0.4989
-7.6728 0.8223 -7.9722 1.1833 -6.2876 0.4989
-7.6366 0.822 -7.9418 1.1829 -6.2243 0.4989
-7.6005 0.8218 -7.9115 1.1825 -6.1609 0.4989
-7.5643 0.8215 -7.8811 1.1821 -6.0976 0.4989
-7.5281 0.8212 -7.8507 1.1817 -6.0342 0.4989
-7.492 0.821 -7.8203 1.1813 -5.9709 0.4988
-7.4558 0.8207 -7.7899 1.1809 -5.9076 0.4988
-7.4196 0.8204 -7.7596 1.1805 -5.8442 0.4988
-7.3835 0.8201 -7.7292 1.18 -5.7809 0.4988
-7.3473 0.8199 -7.6988 1.1796 -5.7175 0.4988
-7.3111 0.8196 -7.6684 1.1792 -5.6542 0.4987
-7.2749 0.8193 -7.6381 1.1787 -5.5908 0.4987
-7.2388 0.819 -7.6077 1.1783 -5.5275 0.4987
-7.2026 0.8187 -7.5773 1.1779 -5.4642 0.4987
-7.1664 0.8184 -7.5469 1.1774 -5.4008 0.4987
-7.1303 0.8181 -7.5166 1.177 -5.3375 0.4986
-7.0941 0.8178 -7.4862 1.1765 -5.2741 0.4986
-7.0579 0.8175 -7.4558 1.1761 -5.2108 0.4986
-7.0217 0.8174 -7.4254 1.1756 -5.1474 0.4986
-6.9856 0.8173 -7.3951 1.1752 -5.0841 0.4986
-6.9494 0.8171 -7.3647 1.1747 -5.0208 0.4985
-6.9132 0.817 -7.3343 1.1742 -4.9574 0.4985
-6.877 0.8169 -7.3039 1.1738 -4.8941 0.4985
-6.8408 0.8167 -7.2736 1.1733 -4.8307 0.4985
-6.8046 0.8166 -7.2432 1.1728 -4.7674 0.4984
-6.7685 0.8165 -7.2128 1.1723 -4.7041 0.4984
-6.7323 0.8163 -7.1824 1.1718 -4.6407 0.4984
-6.6961 0.8162 -7.1521 1.1713 -4.5774 0.4983
-6.6599 0.816 -7.1217 1.1708 -4.514 0.4983
-6.6237 0.8159 -7.0913 1.1703 -4.4507 0.4983
-6.5875 0.8157 -7.0609 1.1698 -4.3873 0.4982
-6.5514 0.8156 -7.0306 1.1693 -4.324 0.4982
-6.5152 0.8154 -7.0002 1.1688 -4.2607 0.4982
-6.479 0.8153 -6.9698 1.1683 -4.1973 0.4981
-6.4428 0.8151 -6.9394 1.1678 -4.134 0.4981
-6.4066 0.815 -6.9091 1.1672 -4.0706 0.4981
-6.3704 0.8148 -6.8787 1.1667 -4.0073 0.498
-6.3343 0.8147 -6.8483 1.1662 -3.944 0.498
-6.2981 0.8145 -6.8179 1.1656 -3.8806 0.498
-6.2619 0.8143 -6.7875 1.1652 -3.8173 0.4979
-6.2257 0.8142 -6.7571 1.1648 -3.7539 0.4979
-6.1895 0.814 -6.7267 1.1645 -3.6906 0.4978
-6.1533 0.8138 -6.6963 1.1642 -3.6272 0.4978
-6.1172 0.8137 -6.6659 1.1638 -3.5639 0.4977
-6.081 0.8135 -6.6355 1.1635 -3.5006 0.4977
-6.0448 0.8133 -6.6051 1.1632 -3.4372 0.4976
-6.0086 0.8131 -6.5747 1.1628 -3.3739 0.4976
-5.9724 0.813 -6.5443 1.1625 -3.3105 0.4975
-5.9362 0.8128 -6.5139 1.1621 -3.2472 0.4975
-5.9001 0.8126 -6.4835 1.1617 -3.1838 0.4974
-5.8639 0.8124 -6.4531 1.1614 -3.1205 0.4974
-5.8277 0.8122 -6.4227 1.161 -3.0572 0.4973
-5.7915 0.812 -6.3923 1.1606 -2.9938 0.4972
-5.7553 0.8118 -6.3619 1.1603 -2.9305 0.4971
-5.7191 0.8116 -6.3315 1.1599 -2.8671 0.4971
-5.6829 0.8114 -6.3011 1.1595 -2.8038 0.497
-5.6468 0.8112 -6.2707 1.1591 -2.7405 0.4969
-5.6106 0.811 -6.2403 1.1588 -2.6771 0.4968
-5.5744 0.8108 -6.2099 1.1584 -2.6138 0.4967
-5.5382 0.8106 -6.1795 1.158 -2.5504 0.4967
-5.502 0.8104 -6.1491 1.1576 -2.4871 0.4966
-5.4658 0.8102 -6.1187 1.1572 -2.4237 0.4965
-5.4297 0.81 -6.0883 1.1568 -2.3604 0.4963
-5.3935 0.8098 -6.0579 1.1564 -2.2971 0.4962
-5.3573 0.8095 -6.0275 1.1559 -2.2337 0.4961
-5.3211 0.8093 -5.9971 1.1555 -2.1704 0.496
-5.2849 0.8091 -5.9667 1.1551 -2.107 0.4959
-5.2487 0.8089 -5.9363 1.1547 -2.0437 0.4957
-5.2126 0.8086 -5.9059 1.1543 -1.9804 0.4956
-5.1764 0.8084 -5.8755 1.1538 -1.917 0.4954
-5.1402 0.8081 -5.8451 1.1534 -1.8537 0.4952
-5.104 0.8079 -5.8147 1.1529 -1.7903 0.495
-5.0678 0.8076 -5.7843 1.1525 -1.727 0.4948
-5.0316 0.8074 -5.7539 1.152 -1.6636 0.4946
-4.9955 0.8071 -5.7235 1.1516 -1.6003 0.4944
-4.9593 0.8069 -5.6931 1.1511 -1.537 0.4941
-4.9231 0.8066 -5.6627 1.1506 -1.4736 0.4939
-4.8869 0.8063 -5.6323 1.1502 -1.4103 0.4936
-4.8507 0.8061 -5.6019 1.1497 -1.3469 0.4933
-4.8145 0.8058 -5.5715 1.1492 -1.2836 0.4929
-4.7784 0.8055 -5.5411 1.1487 -1.2202 0.4925
-4.7422 0.8052 -5.5107 1.1482 -1.1569 0.4921
-4.706 0.8049 -5.4803 1.1477 -1.0936 0.4916
-4.6698 0.8047 -5.4499 1.1472 -1.0302 0.491
-4.6336 0.8044 -5.4195 1.1467 -0.9669 0.4904
-4.5974 0.8041 -5.3891 1.1462 -0.9035 0.4897
-4.5613 0.8037 -5.3587 1.1457 -0.8402 0.4889
-4.5251 0.8034 -5.3283 1.1451 -0.7769 0.488
-4.4889 0.8031 -5.2979 1.1446 -0.7135 0.4869
-4.4527 0.8028 -5.2675 1.1441 -0.6502 0.4855
-4.4165 0.8025 -5.2371 1.1435 -0.5868 0.4839
-4.3803 0.8021 -5.2067 1.143 -0.5235 0.4819
-4.3441 0.8018 -5.1763 1.1424 -0.4601 0.4813
-4.308 0.8015 -5.1459 1.1418 -0.3968 0.4813
-4.2718 0.8011 -5.1155 1.1413 -0.3334 0.4813
-4.2356 0.8008 -5.0851 1.1407 -0.2701 0.4813
-4.1994 0.8004 -5.0547 1.1401 -0.2068 0.4813
-4.1632 0.8 -5.0243 1.1395 -0.1434 0.4813
-4.127 0.7996 -4.9939 1.1389 -0.0801 0.4813
-4.0909 0.7993 -4.9635 1.1383 -0.0167 0.4813
-4.0547 0.7989 -4.9331 1.1377 0.0466 0.4813
-4.0185 0.7985 -4.9027 1.1372 0.11 0.4813
-3.9823 0.7981 -4.8722 1.1369 0.1733 0.4813
-3.9461 0.7977 -4.8418 1.1366 0.2367 0.4813
-3.9099 0.7975 -4.8114 1.1363 0.3 0.4813
-3.8737 0.7974 -4.7809 1.136 0.3634 0.4813
-3.8375 0.7973 -4.7505 1.1357 0.4267 0.4813
-3.8013 0.7972 -4.7201 1.1354 0.4901 0.4813
-3.7651 0.7972 -4.6897 1.1351 0.5534 0.4813
-3.7289 0.7971 -4.6592 1.1348 0.6168 0.4813
-3.6927 0.797 -4.6288 1.1345 0.6801 0.4813
-3.6566 0.7969 -4.5984 1.1342 0.7434 0.4813
-3.6204 0.7968 -4.5679 1.1338 0.8068 0.4813
-3.5842 0.7967 -4.5375 1.1335 0.8701 0.4813
-3.548 0.7967 -4.5071 1.1332 0.9335 0.4813
-3.5118 0.7966 -4.4767 1.1328 0.9968 0.4813
-3.4756 0.7965 -4.4462 1.1325 1.0602 0.4813
-3.4394 0.7964 -4.4158 1.1321 1.1235 0.4813
-3.4032 0.7963 -4.3854 1.1318 1.1869 0.4813
-3.367 0.7962 -4.3549 1.1314 1.2502 0.4813
-3.3308 0.7961 -4.3245 1.131 1.3136 0.4813
-3.2946 0.796 -4.2941 1.1306 1.3769 0.4813
-3.2584 0.7959 -4.2637 1.1303 1.4403 0.4813
-3.2222 0.7958 -4.2332 1.1299 1.5036 0.4813
-3.186 0.7957 -4.2028 1.1295 1.567 0.4813
-3.1498 0.7956 -4.1724 1.1291 1.6303 0.4813
-3.1136 0.7955 -4.1419 1.1287 1.6936 0.4813
-3.0774 0.7953 -4.1115 1.1283 1.757 0.4813
-3.0412 0.7952 -4.0811 1.1279 1.8203 0.4813
-3.005 0.7951 -4.0507 1.1275 1.8837 0.4813
-2.9688 0.795 -4.0202 1.127 1.947 0.4813
-2.9326 0.7949 -3.9898 1.1266 2.0104 0.4813
-2.8964 0.7947 -3.9594 1.1262 2.0737 0.4813
-2.8602 0.7946 -3.9289 1.1257 2.1371 0.4813
-2.824 0.7945 -3.8985 1.1253 2.2004 0.4813
-2.7878 0.7943 -3.8681 1.1248 2.2638 0.4813
-2.7516 0.7942 -3.8377 1.1244 2.3271 0.4813
-2.7154 0.794 -3.8072 1.1239 2.3905 0.4813
-2.6792 0.7939 -3.7768 1.1234 2.4538 0.4813
-2.643 0.7937 -3.7464 1.1229 2.5172 0.4813
-2.6068 0.7936 -3.7159 1.1224 2.5805 0.4813
-2.5706 0.7934 -3.6855 1.1219 2.6438 0.4813
-2.5344 0.7932 -3.6551 1.1214 2.7072 0.4813
-2.4982 0.793 -3.6247 1.1209 2.7705 0.4813
-2.462 0.7929 -3.5942 1.1203 2.8339 0.4813
-2.4258 0.7927 -3.5638 1.1198 2.8972 0.4813
-2.3896 0.7925 -3.5334 1.1192 2.9606 0.4813
-2.3534 0.7923 -3.503 1.1187 3.0239 0.4813
-2.3172 0.7921 -3.4725 1.1181 3.0873 0.4813
-2.281 0.7919 -3.4421 1.1175 3.1506 0.4813
-2.2448 0.7917 -3.4117 1.117 3.214 0.4813
-2.2086 0.7914 -3.3812 1.1164 3.2773 0.4813
-2.1724 0.7912 -3.3508 1.1157 3.3407 0.4813
-2.1362 0.791 -3.3204 1.1151 3.404 0.4813
-2.1 0.7907 -3.29 1.1145 3.4674 0.4813
-2.0638 0.7905 -3.2595 1.1138 3.5307 0.4813
-2.0276 0.7902 -3.2291 1.1132 3.5941 0.4813
-1.9915 0.7899 -3.1987 1.1125 3.6574 0.4813
-1.9553 0.7896 -3.1682 1.1118 3.7207 0.4813
-1.9191 0.7893 -3.1378 1.1111 3.7841 0.4813
-1.8829 0.789 -3.1074 1.1104 3.8474 0.4813
-1.8467 0.7887 -3.077 1.1097 3.9108 0.4813
-1.8105 0.7884 -3.0465 1.109 3.9741 0.4813
-1.7743 0.788 -3.0161 1.1082 4.0375 0.4813
-1.7381 0.7877 -2.9857 1.1074 4.1008 0.4813
-1.7019 0.7873 -2.9552 1.1067 4.1642 0.4813
-1.6657 0.7869 -2.9248 1.1059 4.2275 0.4813
-1.6295 0.7865 -2.8944 1.105 4.2909 0.4813
-1.5933 0.7861 -2.864 1.1042 4.3542 0.4813
-1.5571 0.7856 -2.8335 1.1038 4.4176 0.4813
-1.5209 0.7852 -2.8031 1.1036 4.4809 0.4813
-1.4847 0.7847 -2.7726 1.1034 4.5443 0.4813
-1.4485 0.7842 -2.7421 1.1031 4.6076 0.4813
-1.4123 0.7836 -2.7117 1.1029 4.6709 0.4813
-1.3761 0.7831 -2.6812 1.1027 4.7343 0.4813
-1.3399 0.7825 -2.6508 1.1024 4.7976 0.4813
-1.3037 0.7818 -2.6203 1.1022 4.861 0.4813
-1.2675 0.7812 -2.5899 1.102 4.9243 0.4813
-1.2313 0.7804 -2.5594 1.1017 4.9877 0.4813
-1.1951 0.7797 -2.5289 1.1015 5.051 0.4813
-1.1589 0.7789 -2.4985 1.1012 5.1144 0.4813
-1.1227 0.778 -2.468 1.1009 5.1777 0.4813
-1.0865 0.7771 -2.4376 1.1007 5.2411 0.4813
-1.0503 0.7762 -2.4071 1.1004 5.3044 0.4813
-1.0141 0.7751 -2.3767 1.1001 5.3678 0.4813
-0.9779 0.774 -2.3462 1.0998 5.4311 0.4813
-0.9417 0.7728 -2.3157 1.0995 5.4945 0.4813
-0.9055 0.7715 -2.2853 1.0992 5.5578 0.4813
-0.8693 0.7701 -2.2548 1.0988 5.6212 0.4811
-0.8331 0.7686 -2.2244 1.0985 5.6845 0.4809
-0.7969 0.7669 -2.1939 1.0982 5.7479 0.4807
-0.7607 0.7651 -2.1635 1.0978 5.8112 0.4805
-0.7245 0.7639 -2.133 1.0975 5.8746 0.4802
-0.6883 0.7639 -2.1025 1.0971 5.9379 0.48
-0.6521 0.7639 -2.0721 1.0967 6.0013 0.4798
-0.6159 0.7639 -2.0416 1.0963 6.0646 0.4796
-0.5797 0.7639 -2.0112 1.0959 6.128 0.4794
-0.5435 0.7639 -1.9807 1.0955 6.1913 0.4792
-0.5072 0.7639 -1.9503 1.0951 6.2547 0.479
-0.471 0.7639 -1.9198 1.0946 6.318 0.4788
-0.4348 0.7639 -1.8893 1.0942 6.3814 0.4786
-0.3986 0.7639 -1.8589 1.0937 6.4447 0.4784
-0.3624 0.7639 -1.8284 1.0932 6.5081 0.4783
-0.3262 0.7639 -1.798 1.0927 6.5714 0.4781
-0.29 0.7639 -1.7675 1.0922 6.6348 0.4779
-0.2538 0.7639 -1.7371 1.0916 6.6981 0.4777
-0.2175 0.7639 -1.7066 1.0911 6.7615 0.4776
-0.1813 0.7639 -1.6761 1.0905 6.8248 0.4774
-0.1451 0.7639 -1.6457 1.0899 6.8882 0.4772
-0.1089 0.7639 -1.6152 1.0893 6.9515 0.4771
-0.0727 0.7639 -1.5848 1.0886 7.0149 0.4769
-0.0365 0.7639 -1.5543 1.0879 7.0782 0.4768
-0.0003 0.7639 -1.5239 1.0872 7.1416 0.4766
0.0359 0.7639 -1.4934 1.0865 7.2049 0.4765
0.0722 0.7639 -1.4629 1.0858 7.2683 0.4763
0.1084 0.7639 -1.4325 1.085 7.3316 0.4762
0.1446 0.7639 -1.402 1.0841 7.395 0.4761
0.1808 0.7639 -1.3716 1.0833 7.4583 0.4759
0.217 0.7639 -1.3411 1.0824 7.5217 0.4758
0.2532 0.7639 -1.3107 1.0814 7.585 0.4757
0.2894 0.7639 -1.2802 1.0804 7.6484 0.4755
0.3256 0.7639 -1.2497 1.0794 7.7117 0.4754
0.3619 0.7639 -1.2193 1.0783 7.7751 0.4753
0.3981 0.7639 -1.1888 1.0772 7.8384 0.4752
0.4343 0.7639 -1.1584 1.076 7.9018 0.475
0.4705 0.7639 -1.1279 1.0747 7.9651 0.4749
0.5067 0.7639 -1.0975 1.0733 8.0285 0.4748
0.5429 0.7639 -1.067 1.0719 8.0918 0.4747
0.5791 0.7639 -1.0365 1.0704 8.1552 0.4746
0.6153 0.7639 -1.0061 1.0688 8.2185 0.4744
0.6515 0.7639 -0.9756 1.0671 8.2819 0.4743
0.6878 0.7639 -0.9452 1.0653 8.3452 0.4742
0.724 0.7639 -0.9147 1.0634 8.4086 0.4741
0.7602 0.7639 -0.8843 1.0614 8.4719 0.474
0.7964 0.7639 -0.8538 1.0592 8.5353 0.4739
0.8326 0.7639 -0.8233 1.0568 8.5986 0.4738
0.8688 0.7639 -0.7929 1.0561 8.662 0.4737
0.905 0.7639 -0.7624 1.0561 8.7253 0.4736
0.9412 0.7639 -0.7319 1.0561 8.7887 0.4735
0.9775 0.7639 -0.7014 1.0561 8.852 0.4734
1.0137 0.7639 -0.6709 1.0561 8.9154 0.4733
1.0499 0.7639 -0.6404 1.0561 8.9787 0.4732
1.0861 0.7639 -0.6099 1.0561 9.0421 0.4731
1.1223 0.7639 -0.5795 1.0561 9.1054 0.473
1.1585 0.7639 -0.549 1.0561 9.1688 0.4729
1.1947 0.7639 -0.5185 1.0561 9.2321 0.4729
1.2309 0.7639 -0.488 1.0561 9.2955 0.4728
1.2672 0.7639 -0.4575 1.0561 9.3588 0.4727
1.3034 0.7639 -0.427 1.0561 9.4222 0.4726
1.3396 0.7639 -0.3965 1.0561 9.4855 0.4724
1.3758 0.7639 -0.366 1.0561 9.5489 0.4723
1.412 0.7639 -0.3355 1.0561 9.6123 0.4722
1.4482 0.7639 -0.3051 1.0561 9.6756 0.4721
1.4844 0.7639 -0.2746 1.0561 9.739 0.472
1.5206 0.7639 -0.2441 1.0561 9.8023 0.4719
1.5569 0.7639 -0.2136 1.0561 9.8657 0.4717
1.5931 0.7639 -0.1831 1.0561 9.929 0.4716
1.6293 0.7639 -0.1526 1.0561 9.9924 0.4715
1.6655 0.7639 -0.1221 1.0561 10.0557 0.4714
1.7017 0.7639 -0.0916 1.0561 10.1191 0.4713
1.7379 0.7639 -0.0612 1.0561 10.1824 0.4712
1.7741 0.7639 -0.0307 1.0561 10.2458 0.4711
1.8103 0.7639 -0.0002 1.0561 10.3091 0.471
1.8466 0.7639 0.0303 1.0561 10.3725 0.4707
1.8828 0.7639 0.0608 1.0561 10.4358 0.4705
1.919 0.7639 0.0913 1.0561 10.4992 0.4703
1.9552 0.7639 0.1218 1.0561 10.5625 0.47
1.9914 0.7639 0.1523 1.0561 10.6259 0.4698
2.0276 0.7639 0.1827 1.0561 10.6893 0.4695
2.0638 0.7639 0.2132 1.0561 10.7526 0.4693
2.1 0.7639 0.2437 1.0561 10.816 0.4691
2.1363 0.7639 0.2742 1.0561 10.8793 0.4689
2.1725 0.7639 0.3047 1.0561 10.9427 0.4686
2.2087 0.7632 0.3352 1.0561 11.006 0.4684
2.2449 0.7624 0.3657 1.0561 11.0694 0.4682
2.2811 0.7617 0.3962 1.0561 11.1327 0.468
2.3174 0.7611 0.4266 1.0561 11.1961 0.4678
2.3536 0.7604 0.4571 1.0561 11.2595 0.4676
2.3898 0.7598 0.4876 1.0561 11.3228 0.4674
2.4261 0.7591 0.5181 1.0561 11.3862 0.4671
2.4623 0.7585 0.5486 1.0561 11.4495 0.4669
2.4985 0.758 0.5791 1.0561 11.5129 0.4667
2.5347 0.7574 0.6096 1.0561 11.5762 0.4665
2.571 0.7568 0.6401 1.0561 11.6396 0.4663
2.6072 0.7563 0.6706 1.0561 11.7029 0.4662
2.6434 0.7558 0.701 1.0561 11.7663 0.466
2.6797 0.7553 0.7315 1.0561 11.8297 0.4658
2.7159 0.7548 0.762 1.0561 11.893 0.4656
2.7521 0.7543 0.7925 1.0561 11.9564 0.4654
2.7883 0.7538 0.823 1.0561 12.0197 0.4652
2.8246 0.7534 0.8535 1.0561 12.0831 0.465
2.8608 0.7529 0.884 1.0561 12.1464 0.4648
2.897 0.7525 0.9145 1.0561 12.2098 0.4647
2.9332 0.7521 0.9449 1.0561 12.2731 0.4645
2.9695 0.7517 0.9754 1.0561 12.3365 0.4643
3.0057 0.7513 1.0059 1.0561 12.3999 0.4641
3.0419 0.7509 1.0364 1.0561 12.4632 0.464
3.0782 0.7505 1.0669 1.0545 12.5266 0.4638
3.1144 0.7501 1.0974 1.0525 12.5899 0.4636
3.1506 0.7498 1.128 1.0507 12.6533 0.4635
3.1868 0.7494 1.1585 1.0489 12.7166 0.4633
3.2231 0.7491 1.189 1.0472 12.78 0.4631
3.2593 0.7487 1.2195 1.0456 12.8433 0.463
3.2955 0.7484 1.25 1.0441 12.9067 0.4628
3.3317 0.748 1.2806 1.0426 12.97 0.4627
3.368 0.7477 1.3111 1.0412 13.0334 0.4625
3.4042 0.7474 1.3416 1.0399 13.0968 0.4623
3.4404 0.7471 1.3721 1.0387 13.1601 0.4622
3.4767 0.7468 1.4027 1.0375 13.2235 0.462
3.5129 0.7465 1.4332 1.0363 13.2868 0.4619
3.5491 0.7462 1.4637 1.0352 13.3502 0.4617
3.5853 0.7459 1.4942 1.0341 13.4135 0.4616
3.6216 0.7457 1.5247 1.0331 13.4769 0.4613
3.6578 0.7454 1.5553 1.0321 13.5403 0.461
3.694 0.7451 1.5858 1.0312 13.6036 0.4607
3.7302 0.7449 1.6163 1.0303 13.667 0.4603
3.7665 0.7446 1.6468 1.0294 13.7304 0.46
3.8027 0.7444 1.6773 1.0286 13.7937 0.4596
3.8389 0.7441 1.7079 1.0278 13.8571 0.4593
3.8752 0.7439 1.7384 1.027 13.9205 0.459
3.9114 0.7436 1.7689 1.0262 13.9838 0.4586
3.9476 0.7434 1.7994 1.0255 14.0472 0.4583
3.9838 0.7432 1.8299 1.0248 14.1105 0.458
4.0201 0.743 1.8605 1.0241 14.1739 0.4577
4.0563 0.7427 1.891 1.0235 14.2373 0.4573
4.0925 0.7425 1.9215 1.0228 14.3006 0.457
4.1287 0.7423 1.952 1.0222 14.364 0.4567
4.165 0.7421 1.9826 1.0216 14.4274 0.4564
4.2012 0.7419 2.0131 1.021 14.4907 0.4561
4.2374 0.7417 2.0436 1.0205 14.5541 0.4558
4.2737 0.7415 2.0741 1.0199 14.6175 0.4555
4.3099 0.7413 2.1046 1.0194 14.6808 0.4552
4.3461 0.7411 2.1352 1.0189 14.7442 0.4549
4.3823 0.7409 2.1657 1.0184 14.8076 0.4546
4.4186 0.7407 2.1962 1.0179 14.8709 0.4543
4.4548 0.7406 2.2267 1.0174 14.9343 0.454
4.491 0.7404 2.2572 1.0169 14.9977 0.4537
4.5272 0.7402 2.2878 1.0165 15.061 0.4533
4.5635 0.74 2.3183 1.016 15.1244 0.4528
4.5997 0.7398 2.3488 1.0156 15.1878 0.4524
4.6359 0.7393 2.3793 1.0152 15.2512 0.452
4.6722 0.7387 2.4099 1.0148 15.3145 0.4516
4.7084 0.7382 2.4404 1.0144 15.3779 0.4512
4.7447 0.7377 2.4709 1.014 15.4413 0.4507
4.7809 0.7371 2.5014 1.0136 15.5047 0.4502
4.8172 0.7366 2.5319 1.0133 15.5681 0.4498
4.8534 0.7361 2.5625 1.0129 15.6314 0.4493
4.8896 0.7356 2.593 1.0126 15.6948 0.4488
4.9259 0.7351 2.6235 1.0122 15.7582 0.4483
4.9621 0.7346 2.654 1.0113 15.8216 0.4479
4.9984 0.7342 2.6846 1.0101 15.885 0.4473
5.0346 0.7337 2.7152 1.0089 15.9483 0.4468
5.0709 0.7332 2.7457 1.0077 16.0117 0.4462
5.1071 0.7328 2.7763 1.0066 16.0751 0.4456
5.1434 0.7323 2.8068 1.0055 16.1385 0.4451
5.1796 0.7319 2.8374 1.0044 16.2019 0.4445
5.2158 0.7314 2.868 1.0034 16.2653 0.4439
5.2521 0.731 2.8985 1.0023 16.3287 0.4433
5.2883 0.7305 2.9291 1.0013 16.3921 0.4426
5.3246 0.73 2.9596 1.0003 16.4555 0.4419
5.3608 0.7295 2.9902 0.9994 16.5189 0.4412
5.3971 0.729 3.0207 0.9984 16.5823 0.4405
5.4333 0.7286 3.0513 0.9975 16.6457 0.4398
5.4696 0.7281 3.0819 0.9966 16.7091 0.4391
5.5058 0.7277 3.1124 0.9957 16.7725 0.4384
5.5421 0.7272 3.143 0.9948 16.8359 0.4378
5.5783 0.7268 3.1735 0.9939 16.8993 0.4371
5.6146 0.7263 3.2041 0.9931 16.9627 0.4364
5.6508 0.7259 3.2346 0.9922 17.0261 0.4358
5.6871 0.7255 3.2652 0.9914 17.0895 0.4351
5.7233 0.7251 3.2958 0.9906 17.1529 0.4345
5.7596 0.7246 3.3263 0.9898 17.2163 0.4338
5.7958 0.7242 3.3569 0.989 17.2797 0.4332
5.8321 0.7238 3.3875 0.9881 17.3431 0.4325
5.8683 0.7234 3.418 0.9873 17.4065 0.4319
5.9046 0.723 3.4486 0.9864 17.4699 0.4313
5.9408 0.7227 3.4792 0.9856 17.5333 0.4307
5.9771 0.7223 3.5097 0.9847 17.5967 0.4301
6.0133 0.7219 3.5403 0.9839 17.6601 0.4294
6.0496 0.7215 3.5709 0.9831 17.7235 0.4288
6.0858 0.7211 3.6015 0.9824 17.7869 0.4282
6.1221 0.7208 3.632 0.9816 17.8503 0.4276
6.1583 0.7204 3.6626 0.9808 17.9137 0.427
6.1946 0.7201 3.6932 0.9801 17.9771 0.4265
6.2308 0.7197 3.7238 0.9794 18.0405 0.4259
6.2671 0.7194 3.7543 0.9786 18.1039 0.4253
6.3033 0.719 3.7849 0.9779 18.1673 0.4247
6.3396 0.7187 3.8155 0.9772 18.2307 0.4241
6.3758 0.7183 3.846 0.9766 18.2941 0.4236
6.4121 0.718 3.8766 0.9759 18.3575 0.423
6.4483 0.7177 3.9072 0.9752 18.4209 0.4224
6.4846 0.7172 3.9378 0.9742 18.4843 0.4219
6.5209 0.7166 3.9684 0.9729 18.5477 0.4213
6.5571 0.716 3.999 0.9717 18.6111 0.4208
6.5934 0.7154 4.0296 0.9705 18.6745 0.4202
6.6297 0.7148 4.0602 0.9693 18.7379 0.4197
6.6659 0.7142 4.0909 0.9681 18.8013 0.4191
6.7022 0.7136 4.1215 0.9669 18.8647 0.4186
6.7385 0.7131 4.1521 0.9658 18.9281 0.4181
6.7747 0.7125 4.1827 0.9646 18.9915 0.4176
6.811 0.7119 4.2133 0.9635 19.0549 0.417
6.8473 0.7114 4.2439 0.9624 19.1183 0.4165
6.8835 0.7108 4.2745 0.9613 19.1817 0.416
6.9198 0.7103 4.3052 0.9603 19.2451 0.4155
6.9561 0.7098 4.3358 0.9592 19.3085 0.415
6.9924 0.7092 4.3664 0.9582 19.3719 0.4145
7.0286 0.7087 4.397 0.9572 19.4353 0.414
7.0649 0.7082 4.4276 0.9561 19.4987 0.4134
7.1012 0.7077 4.4582 0.9551 19.5621 0.413
7.1374 0.7071 4.4888 0.9542 19.6255 0.4125
7.1737 0.7066 4.5194 0.9532 19.6889 0.412
7.21 0.7061 4.5501 0.9522 19.7523 0.4115
7.2462 0.7056 4.5807 0.9513 19.8157 0.411
7.2825 0.7052 4.6113 0.9504 19.8791 0.4105
7.3188 0.7047 4.6419 0.9494 19.9425 0.41
7.355 0.7042 4.6725 0.9485    
7.3913 0.7037 4.7031 0.9476    
7.4276 0.7032 4.7337 0.9468    
7.4638 0.7028 4.7644 0.9459    
7.5001 0.7023 4.795 0.945    
7.5364 0.7019 4.8256 0.9442    
7.5726 0.7014 4.8562 0.9433    
7.6089 0.701 4.8868 0.9425    
7.6452 0.7005 4.9174 0.9415    
7.6814 0.7001 4.9481 0.9402    
7.7177 0.6996 4.9788 0.9389    
7.754 0.6992 5.0094 0.9376    
7.7902 0.6988 5.0401 0.9363    
7.8265 0.6982 5.0707 0.9351    
7.8628 0.6974 5.1014 0.9338    
7.8991 0.6966 5.1321 0.9326    
7.9355 0.6958 5.1627 0.9314    
7.9718 0.6951 5.1934 0.9302    
8.0081 0.6943 5.2241 0.929    
8.0444 0.6935 5.2547 0.9279    
8.0807 0.6928 5.2854 0.9267    
8.117 0.692 5.3161 0.9253    
8.1533 0.6913 5.3468 0.9239    
8.1896 0.6906 5.3775 0.9226    
8.2259 0.6898 5.4082 0.9213    
8.2622 0.6891 5.4389 0.92    
8.2986 0.6884 5.4696 0.9187    
8.3349 0.6877 5.5003 0.9174    
8.3712 0.687 5.531 0.9161    
8.4075 0.6863 5.5617 0.9149    
8.4438 0.6856 5.5925 0.9137    
8.4801 0.6849 5.6232 0.9122    
8.5164 0.6843 5.654 0.9106    
8.5527 0.6836 5.6847 0.909    
8.589 0.6829 5.7155 0.9074    
8.6254 0.6823 5.7462 0.9058    
8.6617 0.6816 5.777 0.9043    
8.698 0.6808 5.8078 0.9028    
8.7343 0.6799 5.8385 0.9012    
8.7707 0.6791 5.8693 0.8997    
8.807 0.6781 5.9 0.8983    
8.8434 0.6771 5.9308 0.8968    
8.8798 0.6761 5.9616 0.8953    
8.9161 0.6752 5.9924 0.8936    
8.9525 0.6742 6.0232 0.8919    
8.9889 0.6732 6.054 0.8901    
9.0252 0.6723 6.0849 0.8881    
9.0616 0.6713 6.1158 0.8861    
9.098 0.6704 6.1467 0.8841    
9.1343 0.6694 6.1776 0.8821    
9.1707 0.6683 6.2085 0.8799    
9.2072 0.6671 6.2395 0.8778    
9.2436 0.6659 6.2704 0.8757    
9.28 0.6647 6.3013 0.8735    
9.3164 0.6635 6.3323 0.8715    
9.3529 0.6623 6.3632 0.8694    
9.3893 0.6611 6.3941 0.8673    
9.4257 0.6599 6.4251 0.8653    
9.4621 0.6587 6.456 0.8633    
9.4986 0.6576 6.487 0.8613    
9.535 0.6564 6.5179 0.8593    
9.5714 0.6553 6.5488 0.8574    
9.6078 0.6542 6.5798 0.8554    
9.6443 0.653 6.6107 0.8535    
9.6807 0.6519 6.6417 0.8516    
9.7171 0.6508 6.6726 0.8497    
9.7535 0.6497 6.7035 0.8479    
9.79 0.6486 6.7345 0.846    
9.8264 0.6476 6.7654 0.8442    
9.8628 0.6465 6.7963 0.8424    
9.8992 0.6454 6.8273 0.8406    
9.9357 0.6444 6.8582 0.8388    
9.9721 0.6433 6.8892 0.837    
10.0085 0.6423 6.9201 0.8353    
10.0449 0.6412 6.951 0.8335    
10.0814 0.6402 6.982 0.8318    
10.1178 0.6392 7.0129 0.8301    
10.1542 0.6382 7.0439 0.8284    
10.1906 0.6372 7.0748 0.8267    
10.2271 0.6362 7.1057 0.8251    
10.2635 0.6352 7.1367 0.8234    
10.2999 0.6342 7.1676 0.8218    
10.3363 0.6332 7.1985 0.8202    
10.3728 0.6323 7.2295 0.8186    
10.4092 0.6313 7.2604 0.817    
10.4456 0.6303 7.2914 0.8154    
10.482 0.6294 7.3223 0.8138    
10.5185 0.6285 7.3532 0.8123    
10.5549 0.6275 7.3842 0.8108    
10.5913 0.6266 7.4151 0.8092    
10.6277 0.6257 7.446 0.8077    
10.6642 0.6247 7.477 0.8062    
10.7006 0.6238 7.5079 0.8047    
10.737 0.6229 7.5389 0.8033    
10.7734 0.622 7.5698 0.8018    
10.8099 0.6211 7.6007 0.8003    
10.8463 0.6203 7.6317 0.7989    
10.8827 0.6194 7.6626 0.7975    
10.9191 0.6185 7.6936 0.7961    
10.9556 0.6176 7.7245 0.7947    
10.992 0.6168 7.7554 0.7933    
11.0284 0.6159 7.7864 0.7919    
11.0648 0.6151 7.8173 0.7905    
11.1013 0.6142 7.8482 0.7892    
11.1377 0.6134 7.8792 0.7878    
11.1741 0.6125 7.9101 0.7865    
11.2105 0.6117 7.9411 0.7851    
11.247 0.6109 7.972 0.7838    
11.2834 0.6101 8.0029 0.7825    
11.3198 0.6092 8.0339 0.7812    
11.3562 0.6084 8.0648 0.7799    
11.3927 0.6076 8.0958 0.7786    
11.4291 0.6068 8.1267 0.7774    
11.4655 0.606 8.1576 0.7761    
11.5019 0.6053 8.1886 0.7749    
11.5383 0.6045 8.2195 0.7736    
11.5748 0.6037 8.2504 0.7724    
11.6112 0.6029 8.2814 0.7712    
11.6476 0.6021 8.3123 0.77    
11.684 0.6014 8.3433 0.7688    
11.7205 0.6006 8.3742 0.7676    
11.7569 0.5999 8.4051 0.7664    
11.7933 0.5991 8.4361 0.7652    
11.8297 0.5984 8.467 0.764    
11.8662 0.5976 8.4979 0.7629    
11.9026 0.5969 8.5289 0.7617    
11.939 0.5962 8.5598 0.7606    
11.9754 0.5954 8.5908 0.7594    
12.0119 0.5947 8.6217 0.7583    
12.0483 0.594 8.6526 0.7572    
12.0847 0.5933 8.6836 0.7561    
12.1211 0.5926 8.7145 0.755    
12.1576 0.5919 8.7455 0.7539    
12.194 0.5912 8.7764 0.7528    
12.2304 0.5905 8.8073 0.7517    
12.2668 0.5898 8.8383 0.7506    
12.3033 0.5891 8.8692 0.7496    
12.3397 0.5884 8.9001 0.7485    
12.3761 0.5877 8.9311 0.7475    
12.4125 0.587 8.962 0.7464    
12.449 0.5864 8.993 0.7454    
12.4854 0.5857 9.0239 0.7444    
12.5218 0.585 9.0548 0.7433    
12.5582 0.5844 9.0858 0.7423    
12.5947 0.5837 9.1167 0.7413    
12.6311 0.5831 9.1477 0.7403    
12.6675 0.5824 9.1786 0.7393    
12.7039 0.5818 9.2095 0.7383    
12.7404 0.5811 9.2405 0.7374    
12.7768 0.5805 9.2714 0.7364    
12.8132 0.5799 9.3023 0.7354    
12.8496 0.5792 9.3333 0.7345    
12.8861 0.5786 9.3642 0.7335    
12.9225 0.578 9.3952 0.7326    
12.9589 0.5774 9.4261 0.7316    
12.9953 0.5767 9.457 0.7307    
13.0318 0.5761 9.488 0.7297    
13.0682 0.5755 9.5189 0.7288    
13.1046 0.5749 9.5498 0.7279    
13.141 0.5743 9.5808 0.727    
13.1775 0.5737 9.6117 0.7261    
13.2139 0.5731 9.6427 0.7252    
13.2503 0.5725 9.6736 0.7243    
13.2867 0.5719 9.7045 0.7234    
13.3232 0.5713 9.7355 0.7225    
13.3596 0.5707 9.7664 0.7216    
13.396 0.5702 9.7974 0.7208    
13.4324 0.5696 9.8283 0.7199    
13.4689 0.569 9.8592 0.719    
13.5053 0.5684 9.8902 0.7182    
13.5417 0.5679 9.9211 0.7173    
13.5781 0.5673 9.952 0.7165    
13.6146 0.5667 9.983 0.7156    
13.651 0.5662 10.0139 0.7148    
13.6874 0.5656 10.0449 0.714    
13.7238 0.5651 10.0758 0.7132    
13.7603 0.5645 10.1067 0.7123    
13.7967 0.564 10.1377 0.7115    
13.8331 0.5634 10.1686 0.7107    
13.8695 0.5629 10.1996 0.7099    
13.906 0.5624 10.2305 0.7091    
13.9424 0.5618 10.2614 0.7083    
13.9788 0.5613 10.2924 0.7075    
14.0152 0.5608 10.3233 0.7067    
14.0517 0.5602 10.3542 0.706    
14.0881 0.5597 10.3852 0.7052    
14.1245 0.5592 10.4161 0.7044    
14.1609 0.5587 10.4471 0.7036    
14.1974 0.5581 10.478 0.7029    
14.2338 0.5576 10.5089 0.7021    
14.2702 0.5571 10.5399 0.7014    
14.3066 0.5566 10.5708 0.7006    
14.3431 0.5561 10.6017 0.6999    
14.3795 0.5556 10.6327 0.6991    
14.4159 0.5551 10.6636 0.6984    
14.4523 0.5546 10.6946 0.6977    
14.4888 0.5541 10.7255 0.6969    
14.5252 0.5536 10.7564 0.6962    
14.5616 0.5531 10.7874 0.6955    
14.598 0.5526 10.8183 0.6948    
14.6345 0.5521 10.8493 0.6941    
14.6709 0.5517 10.8802 0.6934    
14.7073 0.5512 10.9111 0.6927    
14.7437 0.5507 10.9421 0.692    
14.7802 0.5502 10.973 0.6913    
14.8166 0.5497 11.0039 0.6906    
14.853 0.5493 11.0349 0.6899    
14.8894 0.5488 11.0658 0.6892    
14.9259 0.5483 11.0968 0.6885    
14.9623 0.5479 11.1277 0.6878    
14.9987 0.5474 11.1586 0.6872    
15.0351 0.5469 11.1896 0.6865    
15.0716 0.5465 11.2205 0.6858    
15.108 0.546 11.2515 0.6852    
15.1444 0.5456 11.2824 0.6845    
15.1808 0.5451 11.3133 0.6839    
15.2173 0.5447 11.3443 0.6832    
15.2537 0.5442 11.3752 0.6826    
15.2901 0.5438 11.4061 0.6819    
15.3265 0.5433 11.4371 0.6813    
15.363 0.5429 11.468 0.6806    
15.3994 0.5424 11.499 0.68    
15.4358 0.542 11.5299 0.6794    
15.4722 0.5416 11.5608 0.6788    
15.5087 0.5411 11.5918 0.6781    
15.5451 0.5407 11.6227 0.6775    
15.5815 0.5403 11.6536 0.6769    
15.6179 0.5399 11.6846 0.6763    
15.6544 0.5394 11.7155 0.6757    
15.6908 0.539 11.7465 0.6751    
15.7272 0.5386 11.7774 0.6745    
15.7636 0.5382 11.8083 0.6739    
15.8001 0.5377 11.8393 0.6733    
15.8365 0.5373 11.8702 0.6727    
15.8729 0.5369 11.9012 0.6721    
15.9093 0.5365 11.9321 0.6715    
15.9458 0.5361 11.963 0.6709    
15.9822 0.5357 11.994 0.6703    
16.0186 0.5353 12.0249 0.6698    
16.055 0.5349 12.0558 0.6692    
16.0915 0.5345 12.0868 0.6686    
16.1279 0.5341 12.1177 0.668    
16.1643 0.5337 12.1487 0.6675    
16.2007 0.5333 12.1796 0.6669    
16.2372 0.5329 12.2105 0.6663    
16.2736 0.5325 12.2415 0.6658    
16.31 0.5321 12.2724 0.6652    
16.3464 0.5317 12.3033 0.6647    
16.3829 0.5313 12.3343 0.6641    
16.4193 0.5309 12.3652 0.6636    
16.4557 0.5306 12.3962 0.663    
16.4921 0.5302 12.4271 0.6625    
16.5286 0.5298 12.458 0.662    
16.565 0.5294 12.489 0.6614    
16.6014 0.529 12.5199 0.6609    
16.6378 0.5287 12.5509 0.6604    
16.6743 0.5283 12.5818 0.6598    
16.7107 0.5279 12.6127 0.6593    
16.7471 0.5275 12.6437 0.6588    
16.7835 0.5272 12.6746 0.6583    
16.82 0.5268 12.7055 0.6577    
16.8564 0.5264 12.7365 0.6572    
16.8928 0.5261 12.7674 0.6567    
16.9292 0.5257 12.7984 0.6562    
16.9657 0.5253 12.8293 0.6557    
17.0021 0.525 12.8602 0.6552    
17.0385 0.5246 12.8912 0.6547    
17.0749 0.5243 12.9221 0.6542    
17.1114 0.5239 12.9531 0.6537    
17.1478 0.5236 12.984 0.6532    
17.1842 0.5232 13.0149 0.6527    
17.2206 0.5228 13.0459 0.6522    
17.2571 0.5225 13.0768 0.6517    
17.2935 0.5221 13.1077 0.6512    
17.3299 0.5218 13.1387 0.6507    
17.3663 0.5215 13.1696 0.6503    
17.4028 0.5211 13.2006 0.6498    
17.4392 0.5208 13.2315 0.6493    
17.4756 0.5204 13.2624 0.6488    
17.512 0.5201 13.2934 0.6483    
17.5485 0.5198 13.3243 0.6479    
17.5849 0.5194 13.3552 0.6474    
17.6213 0.5191 13.3862 0.6469    
17.6577 0.5187 13.4171 0.6465    
17.6942 0.5184 13.4481 0.646    
17.7306 0.5181 13.479 0.6456    
17.767 0.5178 13.5099 0.6451    
17.8034 0.5174 13.5409 0.6446    
17.8399 0.5171 13.5718 0.6442    
17.8763 0.5168 13.6028 0.6437    
17.9127 0.5164 13.6337 0.6433    
17.9491 0.5161 13.6646 0.6428    
17.9856 0.5158 13.6956 0.6424    
18.022 0.5155 13.7265 0.6419    
18.0584 0.5152 13.7574 0.6415    
18.0948 0.5148 13.7884 0.6411    
18.1313 0.5145 13.8193 0.6406    
18.1677 0.5142 13.8503 0.6402    
18.2041 0.5139 13.8812 0.6398    
18.2405 0.5136 13.9121 0.6393    
18.277 0.5133 13.9431 0.6389    
18.3134 0.513 13.974 0.6385    
18.3498 0.5126 14.005 0.638    
18.3862 0.5123 14.0359 0.6376    
18.4227 0.512 14.0668 0.6372    
18.4591 0.5117 14.0978 0.6368    
18.4955 0.5114 14.1287 0.6363    
18.5319 0.5111 14.1596 0.6359    
18.5684 0.5108 14.1906 0.6355    
18.6048 0.5105 14.2215 0.6351    
18.6412 0.5102 14.2525 0.6347    
18.6776 0.5099 14.2834 0.6343    
18.7141 0.5096 14.3143 0.6339    
18.7505 0.5093 14.3453 0.6335    
18.7869 0.509 14.3762 0.6331    
18.8233 0.5087 14.4071 0.6327    
18.8598 0.5084 14.4381 0.6323    
18.8962 0.5082 14.469 0.6319    
18.9326 0.5079 14.5 0.6315    
18.969 0.5076 14.5309 0.6311    
19.0055 0.5073 14.5618 0.6307    
19.0419 0.507 14.5928 0.6303    
19.0783 0.5067 14.6237 0.6299    
19.1147 0.5064 14.6547 0.6295    
19.1512 0.5061 14.6856 0.6291    
19.1876 0.5059 14.7165 0.6287    
19.224 0.5056 14.7475 0.6283    
19.2604 0.5053 14.7784 0.628    
19.2969 0.505 14.8093 0.6276    
19.3333 0.5047 14.8403 0.6272    
19.3697 0.5045 14.8712 0.6268    
19.4061 0.5042 14.9022 0.6264
19.4426 0.5039 14.9331 0.6261    
19.479 0.5036 14.964 0.6257    
19.5154 0.5034 14.995 0.6253    
19.5518 0.5031 15.0259 0.6249    
19.5883 0.5028 15.0569 0.6246    
19.6247 0.5025 15.0878 0.6242    
19.6611 0.5023 15.1187 0.6238    
19.6975 0.502 15.1497 0.6235    
19.734 0.5017 15.1806 0.6231    
19.7704 0.5015 15.2115 0.6228    
19.8068 0.5012 15.2425 0.6224    
19.8432 0.5009 15.2734 0.622    
19.8796 0.5007 15.3044 0.6217    
19.9161 0.5004 15.3353 0.6213    
19.9525 0.5002 15.3662 0.621    
19.9889 0.4999 15.3972 0.6206    
    15.4281 0.6203    
    15.459 0.6199    
    15.49 0.6196    
    15.5209 0.6192    
    15.5519 0.6189    
    15.5828 0.6185    
    15.6137 0.6182    
    15.6447 0.6178    
    15.6756 0.6175    
    15.7066 0.6172    
    15.7375 0.6168    
    15.7684 0.6165    
    15.7994 0.6162    
    15.8303 0.6158    
    15.8612 0.6155    
    15.8922 0.6152    
    15.9231 0.6148    
    15.9541 0.6145    
    15.985 0.6142    
    16.0159 0.6138    
    16.0469 0.6135    
    16.0778 0.6132    
    16.1088 0.6129    
    16.1397 0.6126    
    16.1706 0.6122    
    16.2016 0.6119    
    16.2325 0.6116    
    16.2634 0.6113    
    16.2944 0.611    
    16.3253 0.6107    
    16.3563 0.6103    
    16.3872 0.61    
    16.4181 0.6097    
    16.4491 0.6094    
    16.48 0.6091    
    16.5109 0.6088    
    16.5419 0.6085    
    16.5728 0.6082    
    16.6038 0.6079    
    16.6347 0.6076    
    16.6656 0.6073    
    16.6966 0.607    
    16.7275 0.6067    
    16.7585 0.6064    
    16.7894 0.6061    
    16.8203 0.6058    
    16.8513 0.6055    
    16.8822 0.6052    
    16.9131 0.6049    
    16.9441 0.6046    
    16.975 0.6043    
    17.006 0.604    
    17.0369 0.6038    
    17.0678 0.6035    
    17.0988 0.6032    
    17.1297 0.6029    
    17.1607 0.6026    
    17.1916 0.6023    
    17.2225 0.602    
    17.2535 0.6018    
    17.2844 0.6015    
    17.3153 0.6012    
    17.3463 0.6009    
    17.3772 0.6006    
    17.4082 0.6004    
    17.4391 0.6001    
    17.47 0.5998    
    17.501 0.5996    
    17.5319 0.5993    
    17.5628 0.599    
    17.5938 0.5987    
    17.6247 0.5985    
    17.6557 0.5982    
    17.6866 0.5979    
    17.7175 0.5977    
    17.7485 0.5974    
    17.7794 0.5971    
    17.8104 0.5969    
    17.8413 0.5966    
    17.8722 0.5963    
    17.9032 0.5961    
    17.9341 0.5958    
    17.965 0.5956    
    17.996 0.5953    
    18.0269 0.5951    
    18.0579 0.5948    
    18.0888 0.5945    
    18.1197 0.5943    
    18.1507 0.594    
    18.1816 0.5938    
    18.2126 0.5935    
    18.2435 0.5933    
    18.2744 0.593    
    18.3054 0.5928    
    18.3363 0.5925    
    18.3672 0.5923    
    18.3982 0.592    
    18.4291 0.5918    
    18.4601 0.5915    
    18.491 0.5913    
    18.5219 0.5911    
    18.5529 0.5908    
    18.5838 0.5906    
    18.6147 0.5903    
    18.6457 0.5901    
    18.6766 0.5898    
    18.7076 0.5896    
    18.7385 0.5894    
    18.7694 0.5891    
    18.8004 0.5889    
    18.8313 0.5887    
    18.8623 0.5884    
    18.8932 0.5882    
    18.9241 0.588    
    18.9551 0.5877    
    18.986 0.5875    
    19.0169 0.5873    
    19.0479 0.587    
    19.0788 0.5868    
    19.1098 0.5866    
    19.1407 0.5863    
    19.1716 0.5861    
    19.2026 0.5859    
    19.2335 0.5857    
    19.2645 0.5854    
    19.2954 0.5852    
    19.3263 0.585    
    19.3573 0.5848    
    19.3882 0.5845    
    19.4191 0.5843    
    19.4501 0.5841    
    19.481 0.5839    
    19.512 0.5837    
    19.5429 0.5834    
    19.5738 0.5832    
    19.6048 0.583    
    19.6357 0.5828    
    19.6666 0.5826    
    19.6976 0.5824    
    19.7285 0.5821    
    19.7595 0.5819    
    19.7904 0.5817    
    19.8213 0.5815    
    19.8523 0.5813    
    19.8832 0.5811    
    19.9142 0.5809    
    19.9451 0.5807    
    19.976 0.5805    

Data for Figure 7 (Bottom Right Panel)

Baseline Trade ElasticityHigh Trade ElasticityLow Trade Elasticity
0.3571 0.4454 0.2598

Figure 8. Foreign Technology Shock When Home Country is at Zero Lower Bound

Data for Figure 8 immediately follows.

Data for Figure 8 (Soild Line)

PeriodForeign GDPForeign Policy RateHome Policy RateHome InflationHome AbsorptionHome GDPReal Exchange RateHome Exports
1-0.9933 -0.0936 0 -0.0353 0.0668 -0.0283 0.2195 -0.865
2-0.9502 -0.0552 0 -0.0291 0.021 -0.0357 0.2839 -0.6969
3-0.9117 -0.0222 0 -0.0198 0.0052 -0.0248 0.3382 -0.5704
4-0.8722 0.0065 0 -0.0132 -0.01 -0.0177 0.384 -0.4639
5-0.8323 0.0313 0 -0.0083 -0.0242 -0.0127 0.4225 -0.371
6-0.7926 0.0528 0 -0.0044 -0.0373 -0.0092 0.4543 -0.2886
7-0.7534 0.0714 0 -0.0012 -0.0492 -0.0067 0.4801 -0.215
8-0.7149 0.0872 0 0.0014 -0.0598 -0.005 0.5004 -0.1492
9-0.6774 0.1007 0 0.0036 -0.0693 -0.0038 0.5159 -0.0907
10-0.6411 0.1119 0 0.0053 -0.0777 -0.0031 0.527 -0.0386
11-0.6059 0.1212 0 0.0067 -0.085 -0.0027 0.5341 0.0074
12-0.572 0.1287 -0.0029 0.0076 -0.0912 -0.0024 0.5377 0.0483
13-0.539 0.1347 -0.0017 0.0081 -0.1056 -0.0103 0.5375 0.0857
14-0.5078 0.1393 -0.0002 0.0103 -0.1122 -0.0126 0.5344 0.1165
15-0.478 0.1425 0.0017 0.0125 -0.1174 -0.0147 0.5287 0.1421
16-0.4497 0.1446 0.0037 0.0146 -0.1215 -0.0167 0.5209 0.1632
17-0.4227 0.1458 0.0059 0.0166 -0.1245 -0.0185 0.5111 0.1803
18-0.3971 0.146 0.0081 0.0185 -0.1265 -0.02 0.4999 0.1937
19-0.3729 0.1456 0.0104 0.0202 -0.1275 -0.0213 0.4873 0.2041
20-0.35 0.1444 0.0126 0.0217 -0.1277 -0.0224 0.4737 0.2116
21-0.3284 0.1427 0.0148 0.0231 -0.1272 -0.0232 0.4593 0.2167
22-0.3081 0.1406 0.0168 0.0243 -0.126 -0.0238 0.4443 0.2196
23-0.2889 0.138 0.0188 0.0253 -0.1242 -0.0241 0.4288 0.2207
24-0.271 0.1351 0.0206 0.0261 -0.1219 -0.0243 0.413 0.2201
25-0.2541 0.132 0.0223 0.0267 -0.1191 -0.0243 0.3971 0.2182
26-0.2382 0.1286 0.0238 0.0272 -0.116 -0.0241 0.3811 0.215
27-0.2234 0.1251 0.0252 0.0275 -0.1126 -0.0238 0.3652 0.2109
28-0.2095 0.1214 0.0264 0.0276 -0.109 -0.0233 0.3494 0.206
29-0.1965 0.1177 0.0275 0.0276 -0.1051 -0.0227 0.3338 0.2004
30-0.1843 0.1138 0.0284 0.0275 -0.1012 -0.0221 0.3185 0.1943
31-0.1729 0.11 0.0291 0.0273 -0.0971 -0.0213 0.3035 0.1877
32-0.1623 0.1061 0.0297 0.0269 -0.093 -0.0205 0.2889 0.1808
33-0.1524 0.1023 0.0301 0.0265 -0.0888 -0.0197 0.2747 0.1737
34-0.1431 0.0985 0.0304 0.026 -0.0846 -0.0188 0.2609 0.1664
35-0.1344 0.0948 0.0306 0.0254 -0.0805 -0.0179 0.2476 0.1591
36-0.1263 0.0911 0.0307 0.0248 -0.0765 -0.0169 0.2347 0.1517
37-0.1188 0.0874 0.0306 0.0241 -0.0725 -0.016 0.2222 0.1443
38-0.1117 0.0839 0.0305 0.0233 -0.0686 -0.0151 0.2103 0.1371
39-0.1052 0.0804 0.0302 0.0225 -0.0648 -0.0142 0.1988 0.1299
40-0.099 0.0771 0.0299 0.0217 -0.0611 -0.0133 0.1878 0.1228

Data for Figure 8 (Dashed Line)

PeriodForeign GDPForeign Policy RateHome Policy RateHome InflationHome AbsorptionHome GDPReal Exchange RateHome Exports
1-1.0001 -0.095 0.0249 0.0133 0.2479 0.126 0.235 -0.9101
2-0.9516 -0.0559 0.0098 -0.0222 0.088 0.0225 0.3044 -0.7145
3-0.9128 -0.0223 -0.0008 -0.0224 0.0593 0.0249 0.3623 -0.5725
4-0.873 0.0067 -0.0082 -0.022 0.0335 0.0247 0.4105 -0.454
5-0.8329 0.0319 -0.0134 -0.021 0.0099 0.0228 0.4502 -0.3521
6-0.7929 0.0536 -0.0169 -0.0193 -0.0117 0.0198 0.4824 -0.2632
7-0.7534 0.0722 -0.0189 -0.017 -0.0312 0.0162 0.508 -0.1852
8