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International Finance Discussion Papers
The International Finance Discussion Papers logo links to the International Finance Discussion Papers home page Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting
Neil R. Ericsson and Erica L. Reisman
2012-1056  (October 2012)

Abstract:  Global vector autoregressions (GVARs) have several attractive features: multiple potential channels for the international transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks, a standardized economically appealing choice of variables for each country or region examined, systematic treatment of long-run properties through cointegration analysis, and flexible dynamic specification through vector error correction modeling. Pesaran, Schuermann, and Smith (2009) generate and evaluate forecasts from a paradigm GVAR with 26 countries, based on Dées, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007). The current paper empirically assesses the GVAR in Dées, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) with impulse indicator saturation (IIS)—a new generic procedure for evaluating parameter constancy, which is a central element in model-based forecasting. The empirical results indicate substantial room for an improved, more robust specification of that GVAR. Some tests are suggestive of how to achieve such improvements.

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Keywords
Cointegration, error correction, forecasting, GVAR, impulse indicator saturation, model design, model evaluation, model selection, parameter constancy, VAR

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