Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Auto and Light Truck Sales

Release Date: August 1, 2014

The Federal Reserve Board estimates seasonal factors for new light vehicle sales and provides these factors to The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. These factors are estimated once per year using X12-ARIMA and were last estimated in summer 2014, using vehicle sales data through April 2014. The seasonal factors for months that had not yet occurred were based on projections from the X12-ARIMA program. The factors will be revised again in summer 2015.

The BEA has posted on their website the seasonal factors for light vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2015. These factors are available for download here.

The table below shows the same seasonal factors as are available from the BEA but also extends them through December 2016. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here.

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Auto and Light Truck Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Jan-2011  79.31  77.63  76.80  84.27
Feb-2011  95.54  87.39  92.40  91.45
Mar-2011 120.10 116.47 112.01 115.04
Apr-2011 110.89 107.89 102.41 100.08
May-2011 111.43 104.52 103.51  98.40
Jun-2011 110.07 106.28 108.98 100.23
Jul-2011 100.93 108.80 101.61 105.39
Aug-2011 103.41 106.34 104.20 105.55
Sep-2011  95.08  96.77  97.62  97.59
Oct-2011  87.33  91.10  94.31  92.55
Nov-2011  84.39  91.28  92.14  95.71
Dec-2011 101.59 107.54 116.10 116.33
Jan-2012  79.43  77.84  76.70  84.13
Feb-2012  98.24  90.33  94.69  93.83
Mar-2012 124.21 120.12 112.75 119.26
Apr-2012 103.26  99.40  96.65  90.78
May-2012 118.10 110.02 112.35 105.18
Jun-2012 111.20 107.25 106.97 103.00
Jul-2012  95.94 102.92  97.51  99.28
Aug-2012 105.98 109.83 107.89 110.32
Sep-2012  94.96  96.95  97.33  95.71
Oct-2012  86.38  90.57  93.91  92.42
Nov-2012  85.05  92.71  93.02  97.68
Dec-2012  98.13 104.31 113.53 110.42
Jan-2013  82.65  80.96  80.44  87.67
Feb-2013  96.64  88.78  91.46  91.61
Mar-2013 120.35 115.75 107.32 114.57
Apr-2013 106.25 101.58  98.59  93.65
May-2013 116.57 108.75 110.99 105.48
Jun-2013 109.18 104.56 106.48  99.26
Jul-2013  97.86 105.19 100.51 101.87
Aug-2013 112.49 116.30 112.51 117.73
Sep-2013  87.06  89.50  90.36  87.45
Oct-2013  89.52  93.86  98.43  96.23
Nov-2013  86.70  95.07  93.78  99.30
Dec-2013  96.16 102.77 113.06 108.60
Jan-2014  81.08  79.70  77.12  87.32
Feb-2014  97.08  89.43  91.24  91.72
Mar-2014 118.96 113.43 106.52 110.54
Apr-2014 108.75 103.81 101.70  95.82
May-2014 120.38 111.72 113.68 108.90
Jun-2014 102.99  98.46 101.08  93.81
Jul-2014 101.38 108.86 105.39 106.24
Aug-2014 108.16 111.74 107.31 112.69
Sep-2014  89.19  91.83  92.18  90.59
Oct-2014  88.50  93.22  96.87  96.59
Nov-2014  85.56  93.83  93.34  95.79
Dec-2014  97.61 105.41 113.70 112.51
Jan-2015  84.89  82.62  80.86  89.17
Feb-2015  97.25  90.04  91.08  91.63
Mar-2015 115.47 109.94 102.95 107.86
Apr-2015 109.96 104.84 104.75  96.44
May-2015 115.48 107.13 108.42 104.68
Jun-2015 105.75 100.61 103.30  97.22
Jul-2015 100.17 108.06 103.90 106.72
Aug-2015 103.76 106.45 104.76 104.81
Sep-2015  93.55  96.66  96.87  96.13
Oct-2015  91.62  96.05  98.80  99.74
Nov-2015  81.15  89.42  88.53  90.59
Dec-2015 103.33 112.13 119.64 119.04
Jan-2016  80.34  78.12  76.65  84.16
Feb-2016  97.22  90.39  90.98  91.45
Mar-2016 122.30 116.36 111.55 115.18
Apr-2016 111.13 105.99 102.90  98.89
May-2016 110.11 101.49 104.38  98.71
Jun-2016 109.49 104.19 109.71 100.79
Jul-2016  99.98 107.59 101.29 105.93
Aug-2016 103.03 105.88 104.50 105.02
Sep-2016  94.11  97.70  97.06  97.83
Oct-2016  86.77  90.44  93.45  92.21
Nov-2016  85.31  94.17  93.07  96.12
Dec-2016 101.05 109.76 115.79 115.91


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Last update: August 1, 2014