Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Auto and Light Truck Sales

Release Date: August 2, 2013

The Federal Reserve Board estimates seasonal factors for new light vehicle sales and provides these factors to The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. These factors are estimated once per year using X12-ARIMA and were last estimated in summer 2013, using vehicle sales data through April 2013. The seasonal factors for months that had not yet occurred were based on projections from the X12-ARIMA program. The factors will be revised again in summer 2014.

The BEA has posted on their website the seasonal factors for light vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2014. These factors are available for download here.

The table below shows the same seasonal factors as are available from the BEA but also extends them through December 2015. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here.

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Auto and Light Truck Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Jan-2013  83.18  81.16  80.88  87.51
Feb-2013  96.83  89.25  91.88  91.86
Mar-2013 120.09 117.57 107.45 116.00
Apr-2013 105.56 104.14  98.34  95.81
May-2013 116.83 109.32 109.99 105.90
Jun-2013 109.14 104.86 105.46  97.80
Jul-2013  97.23 104.76 100.25 100.86
Aug-2013 111.77 113.60 110.98 117.74
Sep-2013  88.07  88.54  91.36  87.21
Oct-2013  89.79  94.97  99.58  95.82
Nov-2013  85.98  93.30  93.15  98.19
Dec-2013  96.96 100.96 114.66 108.52
Jan-2014  81.29  79.87  77.50  87.19
Feb-2014  97.28  89.97  91.71  92.05
Mar-2014 119.25 115.52 106.76 112.02
Apr-2014 107.81 106.79 101.27  98.26
May-2014 121.01 112.35 112.37 109.22
Jun-2014 102.81  98.75 100.28  92.43
Jul-2014 100.69 108.40 105.05 105.00
Aug-2014 107.41 108.81 105.76 112.71
Sep-2014  89.96  90.84  93.16  90.43
Oct-2014  88.74  94.41  98.11  96.11
Nov-2014  85.14  91.91  92.78  94.56
Dec-2014  98.04 103.27 115.36 112.46
Jan-2015  85.58  82.84  81.17  88.86
Feb-2015  97.41  90.56  91.60  91.99
Mar-2015 115.19 112.28 103.32 109.65
Apr-2015 109.37 108.08 104.38  99.07
May-2015 116.17 107.76 107.10 105.02
Jun-2015 105.17 101.07 102.25  95.81
Jul-2015  99.44 107.46 103.54 105.26
Aug-2015 103.85 103.48 103.39 104.69
Sep-2015  93.92  95.64  97.73  95.97
Oct-2015  92.14  97.51 100.07  99.04
Nov-2015  80.51  87.31  88.20  89.41
Dec-2015 103.91 109.50 121.27 118.88


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Last update: August 2, 2013