July 27, 2011 Federal Reserve Districts Sixth District--Atlanta

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Sixth District business contacts described economic activity as little-changed in June through mid-July. Retail sales grew slowly, although sales of higher-end goods saw more traction and tourism activity was strong. Existing home sales remained soft outside of Florida, while new home sales and construction were weak throughout the region. Downward pressure on prices of both existing and new homes continued to be noted. Contractors reported that the pace of commercial development was basically unchanged, although construction activity in healthcare and multi-family had improved. Manufacturing contacts indicated that production and new orders increased but at a slower pace than experienced earlier in the year. Credit availability for entrepreneurs and real estate developers remained tight, although loan availability for some commercial projects increased. Most business contacts indicated that their hiring plans remained modest. Firms' expectations for unit cost increases have softened, mainly because non-labor input costs have moderated. Some energy contacts have noticed a considerable uptick in early stage fabrication of oil and gas extraction capital goods. While most of the District continued to experience drought conditions, recent rains have provided relief to some of the District's stressed farmlands. Consumer Spending and Tourism Most District merchants reported that retail sales growth was modest in June through mid-July, although some luxury goods retailers noted steady-to-improving sales. The outlook among most retailers was less optimistic than earlier in the year. The majority of contacts stated that they were keeping inventory levels lean and had no plans to increase supply in the near term. Mid- and high-end restaurant contacts reported improving traffic and sales, although their margins remained under pressure from non-labor input costs. Auto sales from Japanese manufacturers slowed, but dealers noted that the impact of supply disruptions from Japan is ending. Leisure activity continued to accelerate in most areas. Contacts reported increases in room occupancy and rates in many areas. Strong attendance at theme parks, festivals, and coastal destinations was noted. Cruise bookings have risen as well, and airport contacts observed increases in passenger traffic. The overall outlook for tourism remained positive. Real Estate and Construction According to reports from District brokers, home sales were slightly ahead of last year's weak levels. Gains continued to be driven largely by reports from Florida brokers. Outside Florida, the majority of contacts reported sales declined. Brokers continued to report declining home inventory levels as fewer homes enter the market and that home prices were flat to slightly down compared with a year earlier. The outlook among Florida brokers was somewhat positive, but elsewhere sales are expected to remain weak. District builders reported that new home sales and construction weakened somewhat in June compared with year-ago levels. Builders continued to report downward pressure on new home prices. Residential contractors reported that home improvement construction increased from earlier in the year; however, most reported that they were unable to effectively pass along all cost increases. Most builders anticipate that new home sales and construction will be slightly ahead of last year's weak levels over the next several months, and most expect renovation work will continue to improve. About two-thirds of contractors reported that the pace of commercial development was flat to slightly up compared with weak levels from a year earlier, but backlogs continued to shrink. Contractors commented that healthcare and apartment construction were bright spots and that renovations in commercial and apartment space had increased. Most contractors anticipate activity for the remainder of this year will be flat to below year-ago levels. With regard to existing commercial structures, contacts reported that credit availability and absorption improved, especially in light industrial, warehousing, healthcare and energy-related space. Manufacturing and Transportation Manufacturing contacts indicated that production and new orders increased, but at a slower pace than reported earlier in the year. Producers of healthcare equipment and electrical components in particular noted stronger orders, and a producer of freight trucks is significantly increasing output. Many manufacturers reported increased investment in technology equipment in efforts to increase efficiency. While some contacts noted that the acceleration in input prices had begun to moderate, the price of metals remained elevated. Many contacts reported that supply chain disruptions from the disaster in Japan were beginning to moderate. Freight forwarding and parcel shipping contacts reported a gradual slowing of domestic volume momentum in June through mid-July. The cost of fuel and other inputs continued to challenge shippers' operating margins; however, maritime contacts cited some success in passing along fuel surcharges. Input costs for trucking contacts--such as tires, replacement parts, and new vehicles--remained high. Banking and Finance Banking contacts reported that credit was available, but finding qualified borrowers continued to be difficult. Several cited increased competition for qualified loans. New residential real estate loans were limited, but banks were actively competing for refinances. Business contacts reported credit markets improved, but loan standards remained high. Credit availability for entrepreneurs and real estate developers remained tight, although loans were available for some commercial projects--namely hospitals and multi-family buildings. Employment and Prices Most business contacts indicated that their hiring plans remained modest. Uncertainty regarding future demand and the regulatory environment were the most commonly cited reasons for the muted hiring outlook. Of those that reported plans to increase employment, many pointed to having reached maximum productivity with existing staff. Staffing agency contacts continued to experience high demand for temporary or contract workers. According to reports, demand for qualified, higher skilled candidates is robust, especially in the technology sector. Most contacts said that they did not experience significant upward wage pressure, and characterized annual increases and bonuses as modest. Firms' expectations for unit cost increases are more tempered than noted earlier in the year. Non-labor input costs have moderated, but remained elevated. However, downward price pressures from productivity gains were reportedly tapering off. While District contacts have continued to report that margins remained squeezed, there have been more frequent reports that some contacts are attempting to pass through input costs. Natural Resources and Agriculture Some energy contacts have noticed a considerable uptick in early stage fabrication of oil and gas extraction capital goods. Shipbuilding for shallow water supply boats has also increased. Shale exploration has increased as firms employed directional drilling techniques for oil and gas liquids. While most of the District continued to experience drought conditions, recent rains have provided relief to some of the District's stressed pastures and crops. Based on results of a recent state survey, a contact reports concerns that farm labor shortages has had a negative impact on Georgia's fruit and vegetable production. Return to top Richmond Chicago