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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2009-49 Screen Reader version ^♣

Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble
Figure Data

Figure 1: The Target Nominal Federal Funds Rate

Date	Target Funds Rate
23-Sep-09	0.125
12-Aug-09	0.125
24-Jun-09	0.125
29-Apr-09	0.125
18-Mar-09	0.125
28-Jan-09	0.125
16-Dec-08	0.125
29-Oct-08	1
16-Sep-08	2
5-Aug-08	2
25-Jun-08	2
30-Apr-08	2
18-Mar-08	2.25
30-Jan-08	3
11-Dec-07	4.25
31-Oct-07	4.5
18-Sep-07	4.75
7-Aug-07	5.25
28-Jun-07	5.25
9-May-07	5.25
21-Mar-07	5.25
31-Jan-07	5.25
12-Dec-06	5.25
25-Oct-06	5.25
20-Sep-06	5.25
8-Aug-06	5.25
29-Jun-06	5.25
10-May-06	5
28-Mar-06	4.75
31-Jan-06	4.5
13-Dec-05	4.25
1-Nov-05	4
20-Sep-05	3.75
9-Aug-05	3.5
30-Jun-05	3.25
3-May-05	3
22-Mar-05	2.75
2-Feb-05	2.5
14-Dec-04	2.25
10-Nov-04	2
21-Sep-04	1.75
10-Aug-04	1.5
30-Jun-04	1.25
4-May-04	1
16-Mar-04	1
28-Jan-04	1
9-Dec-03	1
28-Oct-03	1
16-Sep-03	1
12-Aug-03	1
25-Jun-03	1
6-May-03	1.25
18-Mar-03	1.25
29-Jan-03	1.25
10-Dec-02	1.25
6-Nov-02	1.25
24-Sep-02	1.75
13-Aug-02	1.75
26-Jun-02	1.75
7-May-02	1.75
19-Mar-02	1.75
30-Jan-02	1.75
11-Dec-01	1.75
6-Nov-01	2
2-Oct-01	2.5
21-Aug-01	3.5
27-Jun-01	3.75
15-May-01	4
20-Mar-01	5
31-Jan-01	5.5
19-Dec-00	6.5
15-Nov-00	6.5
3-Oct-00	6.5
22-Aug-00	6.5
28-Jun-00	6.5
16-May-00	6.5
21-Mar-00	6
2-Feb-00	5.75

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: The Target Federal Funds Rate and Taylor (1993) Rule Prescriptions

Meeting Date	Date	Target Rate	Taylor Rule (headline CPI inflation, current output gap)	Taylor Rule (real time; core PCE, gap)
Feb01-02, 2000		5.75
Mar21, 2000	2000Q1	6	7.59	4.80
May16, 2000		6.5
June27-28, 2000	2000Q2	6.5	7.84	5.00
Aug22		6.5
Oct03, 2000	2000Q3	6.5	7.74	4.84
Nov15, 2000		6.5
Dec19, 2000	2000Q4	6.5	7.39	4.17
Jan30-31, 2001		5.5
Mar20, 2001	2001Q1	5	6.9	3.91
May15, 2001		4
June26-27, 2001	2001Q2	3.75	6.55	3.63
Aug21, 2001		3.5
Oct02, 2001	2001Q3	2.5	4.99	2.72
Nov06, 2001		2
Dec11, 2001	2001Q4	1.75	3.4	3.46
Jan29-30, 2002		1.75
Mar19, 2002	2002Q1	1.75	2.3	3.31
May07, 2002		1.75
June25-26, 2002	2002Q2	1.75	2.4	3.54
Aug13, 2002		1.75
Sept24, 2002	2002Q3	1.75	2.62	4.13
Nov06, 2002		1.25
Dec10, 2002	2002Q4	1.25	3.51	2.94
Jan28-29, 2003		1.25
Mar18, 2003	2003Q1	1.25	4.33	2.80
May06, 2003		1.25
June24-25, 2003	2003Q2	1	2.86	2.11
Aug12, 2003		1
Sept15-16, 2003	2003Q3	1	3.64	2.68
Oct28, 2003		1
Dec09, 2003	2003Q4	1	3.46	2.02
Jan27-28, 2004		1
Mar16, 2004	2004Q1	1	3.23	2.41
May04, 2004		1
June29-30, 2004	2004Q2	1.25	4.65	3.02
Aug10, 2004		1.5
Sept21, 2004	2004Q3	1.75	4.62	2.90
Nov10, 2004		2
Dec14, 2004	2004Q4	2.25	5.86	3.22
Feb01-02, 2005		2.5
Mar22, 2005	2005Q1	2.75	5.52	3.50
May03, 2005		3
June29-30, 2005	2005Q2	3.25	5.26	4.04
Aug09, 2005		3.5
Sept20, 2005	2005Q3	3.75	6.59	4.20
Nov01, 2005		4
Dec13, 2005	2005Q4	4.25	6.75	4.00
Jan31, 2006		4.5
Mar27-28, 2006	2006Q1	4.75	7.13	4.29
May10, 2006		5
June28-29, 2006	2006Q2	5.25	7.28	4.93
Aug09, 2006		5.25
Sept20, 2006	2006Q3	5.25	6.32	4.92
Oct24-25, 2006		5.25
Dec12, 2006	2006Q4	5.25	4.41	4.69
Jan30-31, 2007		5.25
Mar20-21, 2007	2007Q1	5.25	4.98	4.59
May09, 2007		5.25
June27-28, 2007	2007Q2	5.25	5.48	4.19

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Real-Time and Revised Core PCE Inflation

DATE	2004q1 vintage	current vintage
2000:Q1	1.8537842980787	1.71192510187357
2000:Q2	1.74305477735557	1.67130919220055
2000:Q3	1.61511364674591	1.7437452615618
2000:Q4	1.52891601572367	1.82335043418393
2001:Q1	1.61112115550734	1.81555305388166
2001:Q2	1.77326978532522	1.89360180447817
2001:Q3	1.87616136186537	1.70838081879547
2001:Q4	2.13591846484593	1.73290001744897
2002:Q1	1.68936952610663	1.46665076801336
2002:Q2	1.67842350186438	1.67483748353239
2002:Q3	1.84847415078058	1.97058665086463
2002:Q4	1.58354284823325	1.81272444658842
2003:Q1	1.55826228966376	1.70932866116833
2003:Q2	1.28786925853177	1.49962297014561
2003:Q3	1.04947959291746	1.41688855077975
2003:Q4	0.860489433343248	1.47721529649596
2004:Q1		1.84130918868954
2004:Q2		2.11679519509465
2004:Q3		2.18054904412148
2004:Q4		2.22870127309891
2005:Q1		2.34330682673762
2005:Q2		2.22969095827528
2005:Q3		2.13503538000366
2005:Q4		2.33844529925806
2006:Q1		2.11228572292375
2006:Q2		2.2943228289632
2006:Q3		2.45377949926127
2006:Q4		2.30385496523886

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: The Federal Funds Rate and a Range of Rule Prescriptions

	actual	max	min
1966Q1	4.726496	11.91137	6.191568
1966Q2	5.107227	11.8276	6.595036
1966Q3	5.638042	12.25383	7.138731
1966Q4	5.799964	11.80747	7.779398
1967Q1	5.005261	11.39607	7.071207
1967Q2	4.127545	9.783198	5.957377
1967Q3	4.025023	9.964085	6.026419
1967Q4	4.322334	9.950685	5.966869
1968Q1	4.974296	11.7382	7.631387
1968Q2	6.251634	12.82235	8.800056
1968Q3	6.212521	13.25089	8.781135
1968Q4	6.183033	13.72995	8.868188
1969Q1	6.882294	14.56671	9.037794
1969Q2	8.812021	15.30845	9.084293
1969Q3	9.532519	15.09373	9.204315
1969Q4	9.487514	13.72612	8.56984
1970Q1	9.065269	13.38332	7.943106
1970Q2	8.31705	12.21315	7.1615
1970Q3	7.036913	11.87455	6.9663
1970Q4	5.805443	10.53145	5.338456
1971Q1	3.992272	11.16947	6.944902
1971Q2	4.735886	9.720613	6.619356
1971Q3	5.704878	9.085799	6.595437
1971Q4	4.931641	7.819342	4.870473
1972Q1	3.659946	8.801433	5.700106
1972Q2	4.455533	8.806351	6.238116
1972Q3	4.921351	8.489176	6.166095
1972Q4	5.353707	9.428939	6.538935
1973Q1	6.849795	12.10365	7.214626
1973Q2	8.247091	14.14015	7.849254
1973Q3	11.2964	14.98194	7.506207
1973Q4	10.66499	16.777	9.329157
1974Q1	9.925798	17.46567	9.694264
1974Q2	12.08097	18.19686	11.78902
1974Q3	13.04787	18.12904	12.67232
1974Q4	9.937422	18.17565	13.07661
1975Q1	6.601202	15.98806	11.11003
1975Q2	5.646282	14.30051	8.782495
1975Q3	6.443208	12.15665	8.456377
1975Q4	5.643746	10.88574	7.648893
1976Q1	5.016404	10.65814	7.895605
1976Q2	5.410812	9.94286	7.245365
1976Q3	5.502754	10.23818	6.404953
1976Q4	5.063883	9.637164	6.184056
1977Q1	4.837087	9.504558	7.647522
1977Q2	5.36925	11.11784	9.673623
1977Q3	6.074162	11.52383	10.28217
1977Q4	6.826128	10.73236	9.36752
1978Q1	7.089075	10.32998	9.003098
1978Q2	7.664097	14.21666	11.68115
1978Q3	8.553961	15.16118	11.79823
1978Q4	10.20058	16.89831	12.515
1979Q1	10.75193	17.23604	11.78312
1979Q2	10.87198	18.18844	12.12119
1979Q3	11.73021	19.69997	12.26197
1979Q4	14.75969	20.39734	12.47636
1980Q1	16.5009	22.11357	13.88198
1980Q2	13.70259	21.17286	10.92275
1980Q3	10.47349	18.67527	11.11138
1980Q4	17.43328	18.82458	13.27533
1981Q1	18.31483	17.59381	13.76395
1981Q2	19.75854	14.80575	11.84886
1981Q3	19.52464	17.50056	11.46461
1981Q4	14.7698	14.68303	8.422577
1982Q1	15.49155	11.72337	3.917144
1982Q2	15.84841	11.09636	3.295271
1982Q3	11.81271	7.909808	2.100714
1982Q4	9.872881	6.076859	-0.024683
1983Q1	9.174035	6.591226	-0.838896
1983Q2	9.33275	6.573784	0.122618
1983Q3	10.06516	7.270943	0.124589
1983Q4	10.03267	7.064641	2.427966
1984Q1	10.32059	8.372008	4.749418
1984Q2	11.2924	9.253313	5.712545
1984Q3	12.24049	8.974391	5.016904
1984Q4	9.847584	8.482486	4.932214
1985Q1	8.972566	8.227721	4.96745
1985Q2	8.364478	8.023714	4.601409
1985Q3	8.338049	7.759291	5.058939
1985Q4	8.562453	7.837972	5.218148
1986Q1	8.256564	7.487188	4.801095
1986Q2	7.266539	6.665949	2.50272
1986Q3	6.498229	6.745458	2.625006
1986Q4	6.561967	6.523905	1.848562
1987Q1	6.513227	6.455556	2.718851
1987Q2	6.976571	6.883424	5.354967
1987Q3	7.179595	7.223399	5.806786
1987Q4	7.26643	8.580915	6.819248
1988Q1	6.990634	7.941439	6.256545
1988Q2	7.524228	9.127189	6.96145
1988Q3	8.427373	8.945231	7.133455
1988Q4	8.967503	9.839661	7.576596
1989Q1	10.04955	10.07363	8.232515
1989Q2	10.36397	10.70168	7.790093
1989Q3	9.646379	9.877485	7.039748
1989Q4	9.125255	9.171388	6.567515
1990Q1	8.723701	10.15132	6.884855
1990Q2	8.71522	8.863235	6.962785
1990Q3	8.623713	9.140265	7.151704
1990Q4	8.165579	9.591048	5.6387
1991Q1	6.73865	7.776455	4.205082
1991Q2	6.123525	7.0807	3.508564
1991Q3	5.890351	6.439614	2.802304
1991Q4	5.00451	5.996557	1.867598
1992Q1	4.162467	5.352294	1.758766
1992Q2	3.896724	5.491389	2.256811
1992Q3	3.357279	5.208954	2.04364
1992Q4	3.125989	5.41914	2.24231
1993Q1	3.130429	5.177235	1.685338
1993Q2	3.088267	5.075024	1.912692
1993Q3	3.150652	4.755118	1.430021
1993Q4	3.077476	4.932006	1.993742
1994Q1	3.310185	4.780236	2.003288
1994Q2	4.076169	4.911715	3.248425
1994Q3	4.650932	5.29133	3.864321
1994Q4	5.376231	5.288434	4.27081
1995Q1	6.063207	5.506214	4.105147
1995Q2	6.293069	5.477616	3.616924
1995Q3	6.052775	5.896375	3.217247
1995Q4	5.969489	5.837555	3.186575
1996Q1	5.591335	5.286056	3.236785
1996Q2	5.459555	6.083078	3.881231
1996Q3	5.527403	6.358459	3.943532
1996Q4	5.498453	7.431698	4.301023
1997Q1	5.498326	7.279372	4.398038
1997Q2	5.759088	7.034774	4.665683
1997Q3	5.770007	6.919328	4.638935
1997Q4	5.741341	6.722265	4.117471
1998Q1	5.756147	6.820189	3.566108
1998Q2	5.734232	6.718723	3.441073
1998Q3	5.770357	7.010076	3.691913
1998Q4	5.050918	8.127855	3.967834
1999Q1	4.914818	7.430804	4.33974
1999Q2	4.929867	7.345909	4.833715
1999Q3	5.297883	8.087085	4.935634
1999Q4	5.526007	9.416434	5.22247
2000Q1	5.922623	9.765659	5.247041
2000Q2	6.566468	10.51526	5.398497
2000Q3	6.833309	9.705538	5.16555
2000Q4	6.78235	9.255805	4.974276
2001Q1	5.838133	8.115918	4.536215
2001Q2	4.482767	7.393049	4.408054
2001Q3	3.613517	5.155074	3.527097
2001Q4	2.186947	5.352727	2.530116
2002Q1	1.772668	5.850737	1.640086
2002Q2	1.790096	4.857749	1.801336
2002Q3	1.779664	4.813388	2.314504
2002Q4	1.475265	3.936624	1.933946
2003Q1	1.275062	5.041991	1.315685
2003Q2	1.272132	3.274514	1.100439
2003Q3	1.036177	4.105296	1.980166
2003Q4	1.015581	3.741747	1.647095
2004Q1	1.022296	3.531842	1.940228
2004Q2	1.029162	4.933385	2.776221
2004Q3	1.461847	4.752596	2.627139
2004Q4	1.996927	5.958335	3.090114
2005Q1	2.534799	5.793154	3.496735
2005Q2	3.029712	5.643216	3.769219
2005Q3	3.568313	7.324028	3.918724
2005Q4	4.11734	6.989918	3.714166
2006Q1	4.620736	7.57837	4.187686
2006Q2	5.100671	8.058747	4.481812
2006Q3	5.463119	6.737169	4.300297
2006Q4	5.463119	5.73421	3.170633
2007Q1	5.473731	5.3132	3.282307
2007Q2	5.466722	5.3918	3.497224
2007Q3	5.279552	5.432549	3.877497
2007Q4	4.664425	7.474809	3.421717
2008Q1	3.277595	7.277357	3.099617
2008Q2	2.13691	7.544201	3.09689
2008Q3	1.987823	8.458876	2.618584
2008Q4	0.516314	2.222784	-0.959561

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Key Macroeconomic Developments

	GDP	Unemployment Rate	PCE Price	Core PCE Price	Federal Funds Rate	Residential Investment Share	Current Account Share
1998Q1	4.5229	4.6301	0.9632	1.5144	5.7561	4.2425	-2.0466
1998Q2	3.922	4.4043	0.929	1.3405	5.7342	4.35	-2.3612
1998Q3	3.988	4.5187	0.9825	1.4714	5.7704	4.4491	-2.6625
1998Q4	4.9826	4.42	0.93	1.4705	5.0509	4.5064	-2.695
1999Q1	4.9266	4.2707	1.1998	1.5191	4.9148	4.5174	-2.7662
1999Q2	4.8044	4.2372	1.5399	1.4988	4.9299	4.564	-3.117
1999Q3	4.7549	4.2333	1.7305	1.4501	5.2979	4.566	-3.4325
1999Q4	4.822	4.0673	1.9734	1.483	5.526	4.5604	-3.5617
2000Q1	4.1681	4.0484	2.56	1.7119	5.9226	4.6267	-4.0711
2000Q2	5.3763	3.9492	2.4276	1.6713	6.5665	4.5278	-4.0059
2000Q3	4.1401	4.0301	2.4855	1.7437	6.8333	4.4527	-4.3187
2000Q4	2.908	3.9167	2.4878	1.8234	6.7824	4.4439	-4.3758
2001Q1	2.3012	4.227	2.293	1.8156	5.8381	4.5083	-4.2328
2001Q2	1.0019	4.4064	2.3298	1.8936	4.4828	4.5663	-3.7922
2001Q3	0.6408	4.8129	1.7576	1.7084	3.6135	4.6662	-4.0662
2001Q4	0.4022	5.5309	1.254	1.7329	2.1869	4.628	-3.4042
2002Q1	1.5995	5.6987	0.7823	1.4667	1.7727	4.6849	-3.9687
2002Q2	1.4732	5.8363	1.0865	1.6748	1.7901	4.7782	-4.3599
2002Q3	2.2606	5.7219	1.5798	1.9706	1.7797	4.7793	-4.339
2002Q4	1.9217	5.8393	2.0023	1.8127	1.4753	4.9046	-4.5818
2003Q1	1.4633	5.8665	2.4996	1.7093	1.2751	5.0068	-4.9642
2003Q2	1.7327	6.1456	1.7835	1.4996	1.2721	5.0678	-4.7351
2003Q3	2.9236	6.1001	1.9304	1.4169	1.0362	5.2427	-4.6241
2003Q4	3.8279	5.8109	1.9256	1.4772	1.0156	5.4082	-4.4135
2004Q1	4.1371	5.6781	2.0361	1.8413	1.0223	5.4978	-4.7108
2004Q2	4.0474	5.5821	2.7127	2.1168	1.0292	5.7359	-5.2997
2004Q3	3.0839	5.4266	2.6783	2.1805	1.4618	5.829	-5.3241
2004Q4	3.0513	5.3803	3.0322	2.2287	1.9969	5.8679	-5.9097
2005Q1	3.3518	5.2658	2.7959	2.3433	2.5348	5.9358	-5.6374
2005Q2	3.0598	5.1098	2.6814	2.2297	3.0297	6.1076	-5.7222
2005Q3	3.0855	4.9627	3.203	2.135	3.5683	6.221	-5.8184
2005Q4	2.7269	4.923	3.2699	2.3384	4.1173	6.2549	-6.498
2006Q1	3.0463	4.6972	3.0875	2.1123	4.6207	6.1694	-6.0273
2006Q2	2.9786	4.6644	3.2131	2.2943	5.1007	5.8769	-6.0558
2006Q3	2.2294	4.6392	2.8071	2.4538	5.4631	5.5131	-6.3864
2006Q4	2.4472	4.4169	1.8949	2.3039	5.4631	5.2023	-5.5256
2007Q1	1.4243	4.4831	2.4037	2.5038	5.4737	4.9292	-5.7728
2007Q2	1.8632	4.5079	2.4443	2.2154	5.4667	4.68	-5.4448
2007Q3	2.7394	4.6565	2.2891	2.2157	5.2796	4.3414	-4.8411
2007Q4	2.531	4.7679	3.5886	2.4817	4.6644	3.9418	-4.6124
2008Q1	2.0379	4.9339	3.5722	2.3791	3.2776	3.6041	-4.9896
2008Q2	1.6002	5.3648	3.7564	2.548	2.1369	3.4089	-5.1793
2008Q3	0.0262	6.0354	4.3452	2.6195	1.9878	3.2217	-5.0645
2008Q4	-1.8619	6.8492	1.7289	2.0357	0.5163	2.9819	-4.3179

Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Evolution of Forecasts from the Blue Chip Survey

Columns A, B, and C refer to date forecast is made

Dates in subsequent columns (D through W refer to year being forecast)

Year: month	qtr	GDP 2003	GDP 2004	GDP 2005	GDP 2006	GDP 2007	GDP 2008	Unemployment Rate 2003	Unemployment Rate 2004	Unemployment Rate 2005	Unemployment Rate 2006	Unemployment Rate 2007	Unemployment Rate 2008	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
2002: 1	1	3.5						5.4						2.5
2002: 2		3.5						5.4						2.5
2002: 3		3.5						5.4						2.5
2002: 4	2	3.4						5.2						2.5
2002: 5		3.5						5.2						2.5
2002: 6		3.6						5.3						2.5
2002: 7	3	3.6						5.4						2.5
2002: 8		3.5						5.5						2.4
2002: 9		3.5						5.6						2.4
2002: 10	4	3.4						5.6						2.3
2002: 11		3.3						5.6						2.2
2002: 12		3.3						5.6						2.1
2003: 1	1	3.3	3.5					5.7	5.4					2.1	2.4
2003: 2		3.3	3.5					5.8	5.4					2.2	2.4
2003: 3		3.1	3.6					5.8	5.5					2.2	2.4
2003: 4	2	2.8	3.6					5.9	5.5					2.3	2.3
2003: 5		2.7	3.6					5.9	5.6					2.3	2.3
2003: 6		2.8	3.6					6	5.6					2.1	2.1
2003: 7	3	2.7	3.7					6.1	5.7					1.9	2
2003: 8		2.8	3.7					6.2	5.8					1.9	1.9
2003: 9		3.2	3.8					6.2	5.8					2	1.9
2003: 10	4	3.3	3.7					6.2	5.8					2	1.9
2003: 11		3.9	3.9					6.1	5.7					2.1	1.9
2003: 12		4.2	3.9					6	5.7					2.1	1.9
2004: 1	1	4.4	4.1	3.5				5.9	5.6	5.4				2	1.9	2.2
2004: 2		4.3	4.2	3.6				5.9	5.5	5.3				1.9	1.9	2.1
2004: 3		4.3	4.2	3.5				5.9	5.5	5.3				1.9	2	2.1
2004: 4	2	4.3	4.2	3.6				5.9	5.4	5.2				1.9	2.1	2.1
2004: 5			4.2	3.6					5.4	5.2					2.5	2.2
2004: 6			4.2	3.5					5.4	5.2					2.8	2.2
2004: 7	3		4.1	3.5					5.4	5.2					3.1	2.3
2004: 8			3.9	3.5					5.4	5.2					3.3	2.3
2004: 9			3.7	3.5					5.4	5.2					3.3	2.2
2004: 10	4		3.8	3.5					5.4	5.2					3.2	2.3
2004: 11			3.8	3.5					5.4	5.2					3.2	2.2
2004: 12			3.9	3.4					5.4	5.2					3.3	2.2
2005: 1	1		3.9	3.5	3.3				5.4	5.2	5.1				3.4	2.3	2.4
2005: 2			3.7	3.5	3.3				5.4	5.2	5.1				3.4	2.2	2.4
2005: 3			3.9	3.6	3.3				5.4	5.1	5.1				3.4	2.2	2.4
2005: 4	2		3.9	3.6	3.3				5.4	5.1	5				3.4	2.4	2.4
2005: 5				3.2	3.3					5.1	5.1					2.6	2.4
2005: 6				3.3	3.2					5.1	5.1					2.7	2.4
2005: 7	3			3.4	3.2					5.1	5.1					2.8	2.4
2005: 8				3.6	3.2					5	5					2.9	2.3
2005: 9				3.4	3.1					5	5					3.2	2.3
2005: 10	4			3.4	3.3					5.1	5					3.6	2.3
2005: 11				3.5	3.3					5.1	5					3.9	2.4
2005: 12				3.6	3.3					5	4.9					3.9	2.3
2006: 1	1			3.6	3.3	3.1				4.9	4.9	4.9				3.8	2.2	2.4
2006: 2				3.1	3.4	3.1				4.9	4.9	4.9				3.7	2.3	2.4
2006: 3				3.2	3.5	3				4.9	4.8	4.9				3.7	2.4	2.4
2006: 4	2			3.2	3.5	3				4.9	4.8	4.8				3.7	2.4	2.4
2006: 5					3.5	3					4.7	4.8					2.6	2.4
2006: 6					3.5	3					4.8	4.8					2.8	2.3
2006: 7	3				3.5	2.9					4.7	4.9					3	2.4
2006: 8
2006: 9					3.4	2.8					4.8	5					3.2	2.5
2006: 10	4				3.2	2.8					4.8	5					3	2.5
2006: 11					3	2.8					4.6	4.9					2.5	2.5
2006: 12					3.1	2.7					4.5	4.9					2.1	2.5
2007: 1	1				3.1	2.7	3				4.5	4.9	4.8				1.9	2.5	2.4
2007: 2					3.4	2.7	3				4.5	4.8	4.8				2	2.4	2.3
2007: 3					3.1	2.7	3				4.5	4.8	4.8				2	2.6	2.4
2007: 4	2				3.1	2.5	3				4.5	4.8	4.8				2	2.7	2.4
2007: 5						2.3	2.9					4.7	4.7					3	2.4
2007: 6						2.2	3					4.7	4.7					3.2	2.4
2007: 7	3					2.3	2.9					4.7	4.7					3.4	2.4
2007: 8						2.3	2.9					4.7	4.7					3.5	2.4
2007: 9						2.3	2.7					4.7	4.9					3.4	2.4
2007: 10	4					2.2	2.5					4.8	4.9					3.3	2.3
2007: 11						2.5	2.4					4.8	5					3.6	2.3
2007: 12						2.5	2.1					4.8	5.1					3.7	2.3
2008: 1	1					2.6	2					4.8	5.1					3.9	2.4
2008: 2						2.5	1.6					4.8	5.4					4	2.4
2008: 3						2.4	1.3					4.8	5.5					4	2.7
2008: 4	2					2.5	1.1					4.8	5.5					4	2.8
2008: 5							1						5.5						3.1
2008: 6							1						5.6						3.5
2008: 7	3						1						5.8						4.1
2008: 8							1.1						5.9						4.4
2008: 9							1.3						6						4.5
2008: 10	4						0.6						6.3						4.1
2008: 11							0.1						6.5						3.4
2008: 12							-0.3						6.7						2.5

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Residential investment as a share of GDP and relative to long-run targets

Date	Residential Investment Share (percent)	Deviation of Residential investment from FRB/US target (percent)	Deviation of Residential investment from EDO target (percent)
1974Q1	4.76699089532737	6.55159839889893
1974Q2	4.54553107634948	1.50171657785569
1974Q3	4.44995134300571	-0.970363892056244
1974Q4	3.86676713228617	-14.0902839017685
1975Q1	3.67559494416136	-23.6643978484497
1975Q2	3.73261590280793	-24.8751109800267
1975Q3	3.88878562745158	-19.5570218455249
1975Q4	4.00700848696731	-16.1179189147051
1976Q1	4.2979633829954	-12.0216552148327
1976Q2	4.47025777115632	-7.98399103712397
1976Q3	4.38685418418181	-5.12561908327448
1976Q4	4.90874473466086	4.53606940147324
1977Q1	5.03333252514705	4.50151116908328
1977Q2	5.56964929122667	15.9124327934517
1977Q3	5.5672234842086	15.8806101684899
1977Q4	5.53892435422169	12.5824574294843
1978Q1	5.62869347528687	12.1642986484253
1978Q2	5.740641338614	18.1862894157876
1978Q3	5.81729313681282	14.5882787745934
1978Q4	5.75329640515206	17.7601170047804
1979Q1	5.62255207622907	14.5191809723785
1979Q2	5.56636566364872	11.1006198111724
1979Q3	5.5181329810927	12.3185424107354
1979Q4	5.31634955253064	11.8452098985141
1980Q1	4.91767110585101	10.9057329979392
1980Q2	4.09616365886417	0.215374084763891
1980Q3	4.17451623500772	-7.46953049794392
1980Q4	4.4863635007157	8.3472265610918
1981Q1	4.30325585541416	9.23561056331752
1981Q2	4.1782726192464	5.89951376187973
1981Q3	3.79040020446795	3.77358867830841
1981Q4	3.43215847916495	-6.34868563420458
1982Q1	3.29022496333501	-11.524535830584
1982Q2	3.17641824331537	-13.6485148366582
1982Q3	3.15956480244321	-15.5053512308913
1982Q4	3.36682742017041	-17.0499430915778
1983Q1	3.87915876088631	-5.39745681412241
1983Q2	4.22274653412347	4.02855262767631
1983Q3	4.5277838876395	15.5132073488751
1983Q4	4.6310164603653	17.7834025786304
1984Q1	4.63938212661613	18.7545198036739
1984Q2	4.6431024432652	22.5444483819507
1984Q3	4.56184396314045	23.3956168012323
1984Q4	4.53527954720333	20.7056356513964	3.9310846551767
1985Q1	4.45203915678452	16.6614450011407	3.3908411507844
1985Q2	4.43397213715933	15.2274240185397	3.00617126707705
1985Q3	4.43278991267476	11.7333734784985	3.69474902173336
1985Q4	4.52632531960331	10.6097210441992	5.31508856824187
1986Q1	4.70671025897996	9.3543125161731	8.89464405217497
1986Q2	4.96922058875726	15.6703853966356	13.6795348746873
1986Q3	5.03343234678353	18.0189988514068	16.408310165219
1986Q4	5.02540236366781	13.5347184217906	16.8125065194471
1987Q1	4.99095331834191	9.57267613362305	16.1236324510253
1987Q2	4.96989047571192	14.1470045353313	15.8244734969175
1987Q3	4.9158916127104	13.445650521662	15.0570560170504
1987Q4	4.86294794217125	14.0567202177454	13.666482954741
1988Q1	4.73671447797567	8.84492900770642	12.4377597213654
1988Q2	4.71203391642926	9.15799753828524	11.8744727069595
1988Q3	4.66717157821154	9.74643246050928	11.033465089082
1988Q4	4.65445783848399	9.44288683244567	10.5018211191433
1989Q1	4.56274062180115	10.8736979371099	8.55217029184556
1989Q2	4.40482405256428	6.06754539549643	5.87963052462479
1989Q3	4.30901423764887	-0.293465399155228	3.85148081697925
1989Q4	4.20705579010996	-2.27091422295139	1.68164055035859
1990Q1	4.19024557570262	0.780769807316045	-0.181671842294628
1990Q2	3.98313716662656	-2.53369299455061	-4.58833631818461
1990Q3	3.73987266663897	-3.00314590151921	-9.90210756040155
1990Q4	3.54117875874342	-11.1454481999297	-14.5240393967713
1991Q1	3.32014894761868	-18.5831790811879	-18.1248158682647
1991Q2	3.3666771720529	-17.3451115265603	-18.4140179155786
1991Q3	3.48573803813001	-15.6482004147085	-17.4626397438603
1991Q4	3.51536270325144	-17.2203929935692	-17.1003384036524
1992Q1	3.62409192960385	-15.2813153579353	-15.6087550840699
1992Q2	3.73447384540308	-12.4434264333376	-14.6807733727844
1992Q3	3.71380851727797	-17.5297019348905	-14.5047770299534
1992Q4	3.82809050691888	-12.5939120640056	-13.179975263391
1993Q1	3.85929821773464	-12.6162679117225	-12.2863957497684
1993Q2	3.89459708437853	-11.252155803543	-10.8822442653925
1993Q3	4.02588212321683	-10.5640945530287	-8.45868551948591
1993Q4	4.16935971967593	-6.1685850914644	-5.95612363224011
1994Q1	4.24373909284259	-3.87751994489794	-4.16847698105267
1994Q2	4.32980280426502	3.64939344009002	-2.47892454615712
1994Q3	4.27589370958517	1.42860718418947	-2.27292360819253
1994Q4	4.20669946182678	3.45464651872701	-3.31911699296714
1995Q1	4.12989321530249	0.972004021868073	-4.63171005735765
1995Q2	3.98963164244147	-4.63794820259802	-6.0095393174983
1995Q3	4.07621249747233	-5.45158128422343	-4.8621590646573
1995Q4	4.14140109756071	-4.87553090016042	-3.82394686224567
1996Q1	4.21263153181566	-5.52643831741678	-2.65605572939351
1996Q2	4.31930530907987	1.21886017450525	-1.4058343551918
1996Q3	4.30399752480422	0.577188231426087	-1.47794041083346
1996Q4	4.21117734029566	-3.54427549120292	-2.08795115642564
1997Q1	4.18743500357503	-8.71870284792792	-2.49727592733483
1997Q2	4.18872679344737	-8.4601951435369	-2.68590547397645
1997Q3	4.17693628476846	-10.0778088398081	-2.80948521639881
1997Q4	4.20314009275622	-11.4932789772459	-2.46875452714026
1998Q1	4.2425132427023	-20.0514014240468	-1.77281456086416
1998Q2	4.34999983905537	-17.6354669999051	0.163012017895014
1998Q3	4.4491118323936	-15.1110690889039	1.92190772203211
1998Q4	4.50641587526332	-15.2263793288825	3.31666157450574
1999Q1	4.51739205286069	-18.5128347494056	3.65168454657376
1999Q2	4.56404843074122	-16.1259762441348	4.30406320609739
1999Q3	4.56604589682019	-14.4687102035555	4.35683796381711
1999Q4	4.56037056835913	-15.143820052311	4.20495112399497
2000Q1	4.62665632220026	-11.6943819019701	4.01556561501479
2000Q2	4.52783763790164	-11.9475567342558	2.25013233558066
2000Q3	4.45266875721802	-14.7630501665727	0.789436261003806
2000Q4	4.44390587972818	-15.7514106694481	0.61460222421732
2001Q1	4.50825945620082	-12.3652725181468	1.76651481138823
2001Q2	4.56632489617775	-11.5849091152587	2.88472034520945
2001Q3	4.66623646314482	-10.8694059310418	4.01552652930004
2001Q4	4.6280139884463	-12.5409486546912	4.51349769701112
2002Q1	4.6849075691468	-6.61388099707088	4.93198161489274
2002Q2	4.77824999948122	-4.82126985956956	5.81518893176702
2002Q3	4.77926737454777	-7.07925767840465	6.21700499898791
2002Q4	4.90459821581569	-6.61451863496259	7.44193087584958
2003Q1	5.00684813434374	6.42887941649488	8.64337504247052
2003Q2	5.06775885824241	4.5140622165652	10.1203478706188
2003Q3	5.24274382328096	12.6219762763417	12.6349417329467
2003Q4	5.40824009667438	13.2472733734783	15.1755007651397
2004Q1	5.4977832944517	33.1569933086704	17.5697481758382
2004Q2	5.73590257330108	41.2985432176421	20.5160195044458
2004Q3	5.82896428572922	41.1824907100515	22.3508324433891
2004Q4	5.86786661918455	40.2744631483412	23.6252396820983
2005Q1	5.93578627586055	38.0822745166324	25.6913660641552
2005Q2	6.1075969466649	42.225933668589	28.6325243838018
2005Q3	6.2209553654032	45.0337894572135	30.1385124447496
2005Q4	6.25486716783752	49.3695972725574	30.093407561789
2006Q1	6.16936817103435	42.7281965329562	28.7618443645224
2006Q2	5.87691076953413	39.9672297416169	24.2400076261371
2006Q3	5.51314124304284	31.2504677354223	18.2696628425448
2006Q4	5.20227222018269	22.002845141973	13.1060131285966
2007Q1	4.92922871015223	12.442786173064	7.75530631192487
2007Q2	4.68004293994908	7.45658159112426	2.29057665254239
2007Q3	4.34139382095886	1.34155741160787	-4.13842628350532
2007Q4	3.94175896366146	-10.2754478738215	-11.2828325159889
2008Q1	3.60414694481141	-22.1886955378067	-17.6155902533546
2008Q2	3.40887073405738	-26.6036799385103	-22.1336967951682
2008Q3	3.22167049754487	-29.9821957877038	-26.6651236880756
2008Q4	2.98194075638024	-36.0689905611542	-31.2927364969329

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Nominal House Price Growth and Over/Undervaluation

year	qrtr	Overvaluation (pct)	4-quarter change (pct)
1978	1	-5.78	18.4
1978	2	-4.47	14.78
1978	3	-2.44	15.15
1978	4	-1.18	15.32
1979	1	1.82	16
1979	2	4.57	17.35
1979	3	5.01	16.31
1979	4	5.87	16.33
1980	1	5.99	13.21
1980	2	5.57	9.96
1980	3	6.08	10.37
1980	4	5.45	8.72
1981	1	5.15	8.51
1981	2	4.54	8.07
1981	3	3.44	5.44
1981	4	2.91	5.57
1982	1	0.61	3.07
1982	2	-0.27	2.54
1982	3	-2.09	2.14
1982	4	-3.32	1.18
1983	1	-3.65	3.09
1983	2	-3.44	3.96
1983	3	-3.16	5.17
1983	4	-3.02	5.72
1984	1	-3.19	5.54
1984	2	-3.4	5.36
1984	3	-3.45	5.19
1984	4	-4.41	4.35
1985	1	-4.61	4.67
1985	2	-5.03	4.77
1985	3	-5.48	4.8
1985	4	-5.38	6.29
1986	1	-4.39	7.3
1986	2	-4.34	7.91
1986	3	-3.54	8.68
1986	4	-3.24	8.19
1987	1	-1.08	9.31
1987	2	1.18	10.16
1987	3	1.94	10.16
1987	4	2.62	10.2
1988	1	2.7	8.03
1988	2	4.35	7.58
1988	3	5.79	8.16
1988	4	6.76	8.54
1989	1	8.12	9.56
1989	2	8.21	8.23
1989	3	7.39	6.03
1989	4	7.62	5.49
1990	1	7.67	3.97
1990	2	6.71	3.08
1990	3	4.84	2.19
1990	4	3.01	-0.13
1991	1	1.45	-1.67
1991	2	1.62	-0.69
1991	3	0.48	-0.62
1991	4	-0.82	-0.36
1992	1	-1.48	0.4
1992	2	-1.89	-0.58
1992	3	-2.85	-0.68
1992	4	-3.41	0.18
1993	1	-3.84	0.45
1993	2	-4.21	0.81
1993	3	-3.97	2.01
1993	4	-3.71	2.57
1994	1	-4.08	2.76
1994	2	-3.87	2.76
1994	3	-4.27	2.27
1994	4	-4.54	1.72
1995	1	-5.19	1.39
1995	2	-5.44	1.48
1995	3	-5.14	2.13
1995	4	-5.48	2.18
1996	1	-5.57	2.84
1996	2	-5.26	3.09
1996	3	-5.64	2.54
1996	4	-6.1	2.5
1997	1	-6.1	2.56
1997	2	-5.95	2.62
1997	3	-5.78	3.37
1997	4	-5.23	4.42
1998	1	-4.25	5.56
1998	2	-3.67	6.09
1998	3	-3.05	6.62
1998	4	-2.36	6.96
1999	1	-1.65	6.52
1999	2	-0.42	7.09
1999	3	0.74	7.21
1999	4	1.7	7.49
2000	1	2.98	8.49
2000	2	4.77	9.16
2000	3	5.79	9.57
2000	4	6.63	9.81
2001	1	8.02	10.18
2001	2	8.73	9.42
2001	3	9.53	9.27
2001	4	10.17	9.07
2002	1	11.08	8.35
2002	2	12.76	8.98
2002	3	14.66	9.79
2002	4	16.4	10.53
2003	1	17.44	10.52
2003	2	18.66	9.98
2003	3	20.91	10.05
2003	4	22.8	9.99
2004	1	26.38	12.61
2004	2	29.87	15.13
2004	3	32.15	15.54
2004	4	34.93	16.63
2005	1	39.44	17.81
2005	2	42.04	16.9
2005	3	44.31	16.8
2005	4	45.94	15.53
2006	1	46.99	11.57
2006	2	45.61	7.39
2006	3	43.93	3.62
2006	4	43.23	1.75
2007	1	39.68	-2.4
2007	2	36.94	-3.79
2007	3	32.97	-6.31
2007	4	28.35	-9.98
2008	1	22.07	-12.55
2008	2	16.6	-15.02
2008	3	10.43	-16.81
2008	4	2.43	-19.69
2009	1	-6.68	-22.07
2009	2	-4.01	-15.72
2009	3	-2.2	-9.55

Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Macroeconomic Implications of Alternative Policy Settings

	Taylor93_GDP	Taylor93_Unemployment Rate	Taylor93_Core PCE Price	Taylor93_Nominal Federal Funds Rate	Taylor93_Residential Investment Share	Taylor93_Current Account Share	Taylor99_GDP	Taylor99_Unemployment Rate	Taylor99_Core PCE Price	Taylor99_Nominal Federal Funds Rate	Taylor99_Residential Investment Share	Taylor99_Current Account Share	Data_GDP	Data_Unemployment Rate	Data_Core PCE Price	Data_Nominal Federal Funds Rate	Data_Residential Investment Share	Data_Current Account Share
2000Q1	4.1681	4.0484	1.7119	5.9226	4.6267	-4.0711	4.1681	4.0484	1.7119	5.9226	4.6267	-4.0711	4.1681	4.0484	1.7119	5.9226	4.6267	-4.0711
2000Q2	5.3763	3.9492	1.6713	6.5665	4.5278	-4.0059	5.3763	3.9492	1.6713	6.5665	4.5278	-4.0059	5.3763	3.9492	1.6713	6.5665	4.5278	-4.0059
2000Q3	4.1401	4.0301	1.7437	6.8333	4.4527	-4.3187	4.1401	4.0301	1.7437	6.8333	4.4527	-4.3187	4.1401	4.0301	1.7437	6.8333	4.4527	-4.3187
2000Q4	2.908	3.9167	1.8234	6.7824	4.4439	-4.3758	2.908	3.9167	1.8234	6.7824	4.4439	-4.3758	2.908	3.9167	1.8234	6.7824	4.4439	-4.3758
2001Q1	2.3012	4.227	1.8156	5.8381	4.5083	-4.2328	2.3012	4.227	1.8156	5.8381	4.5083	-4.2328	2.3012	4.227	1.8156	5.8381	4.5083	-4.2328
2001Q2	1.0019	4.4064	1.8936	4.4828	4.5663	-3.7922	1.0019	4.4064	1.8936	4.4828	4.5663	-3.7922	1.0019	4.4064	1.8936	4.4828	4.5663	-3.7922
2001Q3	0.6408	4.8129	1.7084	3.6135	4.6662	-4.0662	0.6408	4.8129	1.7084	3.6135	4.6662	-4.0662	0.6408	4.8129	1.7084	3.6135	4.6662	-4.0662
2001Q4	0.4022	5.5309	1.7329	2.1869	4.628	-3.4042	0.4022	5.5309	1.7329	2.1869	4.628	-3.4042	0.4022	5.5309	1.7329	2.1869	4.628	-3.4042
2002Q1	1.5995	5.6987	1.4667	1.7727	4.6849	-3.9687	1.5995	5.6987	1.4667	1.7727	4.6849	-3.9687	1.5995	5.6987	1.4667	1.7727	4.6849	-3.9687
2002Q2	1.4732	5.8363	1.6748	1.7901	4.7782	-4.3599	1.4732	5.8363	1.6748	1.7901	4.7782	-4.3599	1.4732	5.8363	1.6748	1.7901	4.7782	-4.3599
2002Q3	2.2606	5.7219	1.9706	1.7797	4.7793	-4.339	2.2606	5.7219	1.9706	1.7797	4.7793	-4.339	2.2606	5.7219	1.9706	1.7797	4.7793	-4.339
2002Q4	1.9217	5.8393	1.8127	1.4753	4.9046	-4.5818	1.9217	5.8393	1.8127	1.4753	4.9046	-4.5818	1.9217	5.8393	1.8127	1.4753	4.9046	-4.5818
2003Q1	1.4653	5.866	1.6942	2.0543	5.0036	-5.0031	1.4616	5.8669	1.7219	0.6253	5.0096	-4.9314	1.4633	5.8665	1.7093	1.2751	5.0068	-4.9642
2003Q2	1.6375	6.1653	1.4732	1.7238	5.0462	-4.7604	1.814	6.1288	1.5291	0.5076	5.0875	-4.6953	1.7327	6.1456	1.4996	1.2721	5.0678	-4.7351
2003Q3	2.7679	6.1424	1.3619	2.009	5.2133	-4.6447	3.1178	6.0511	1.4481	1.4482	5.2725	-4.6718	2.9236	6.1001	1.4169	1.0362	5.2427	-4.6241
2003Q4	3.4947	5.9007	1.4001	2.0773	5.3513	-4.4463	4.0026	5.7501	1.498	1.6846	5.4239	-4.4875	3.8279	5.8109	1.4772	1.0156	5.4082	-4.4135
2004Q1	3.6421	5.8239	1.7327	2.5799	5.4205	-4.7274	4.2565	5.6239	1.8172	2.2635	5.4974	-4.788	4.1371	5.6781	1.8413	1.0223	5.4978	-4.7108
2004Q2	3.3816	5.8103	1.9685	2.8905	5.6149	-5.3155	3.877	5.5746	2.0449	2.5738	5.6982	-5.3901	4.0474	5.5821	2.1168	1.0292	5.7359	-5.2997
2004Q3	2.1896	5.7552	2.0061	2.9118	5.6698	-5.2732	2.5688	5.4928	2.0737	2.5893	5.76	-5.3415	3.0839	5.4266	2.1805	1.4618	5.829	-5.3241
2004Q4	2.067	5.8103	2.0304	2.9977	5.6802	-5.7903	2.3438	5.5283	2.1063	2.7689	5.7765	-5.8621	3.0513	5.3803	2.2287	1.9969	5.8679	-5.9097
2005Q1	2.2814	5.7907	2.1511	3.2907	5.7267	-5.4875	2.5104	5.4928	2.2311	3.2148	5.8271	-5.5613	3.3518	5.2658	2.3433	2.5348	5.9358	-5.6374
2005Q2	2.0638	5.7149	2.0595	3.012	5.8831	-5.4979	2.2599	5.4071	2.1412	2.8071	5.9863	-5.5626	3.0598	5.1098	2.2297	3.0297	6.1076	-5.7222
2005Q3	2.309	5.6135	1.9977	3.0041	6.0012	-5.5426	2.5003	5.2943	2.0781	2.9137	6.1095	-5.6116	3.0855	4.9627	2.135	3.5683	6.221	-5.8184
2005Q4	2.2377	5.581	2.2334	3.3583	6.048	-6.2421	2.4027	5.2558	2.3186	3.2865	6.1558	-6.3185	2.7269	4.923	2.3384	4.1173	6.2549	-6.498
2006Q1	2.865	5.3325	2.0406	3.4811	5.9888	-5.7855	3.026	4.9995	2.1209	3.834	6.0925	-5.8758	3.0463	4.6972	2.1123	4.6207	6.1694	-6.0273
2006Q2	3.165	5.2416	2.2458	3.7628	5.7353	-5.841	3.2511	4.9179	2.323	4.0312	5.8201	-5.9334	2.9786	4.6644	2.2943	5.1007	5.8769	-6.0558
2006Q3	2.7004	5.1333	2.4305	3.8629	5.4119	-6.2259	2.7027	4.825	2.5065	3.9143	5.4858	-6.275	2.2294	4.6392	2.4538	5.4631	5.5131	-6.3864
2006Q4	3.1888	4.8014	2.296	3.8785	5.1459	-5.4312	3.1366	4.5111	2.371	4.0979	5.2093	-5.4769	2.4472	4.4169	2.3039	5.4631	5.2023	-5.5256
2007Q1	2.4058	4.7412	2.5024	4.1674	4.9118	-5.7732	2.262	4.4731	2.5887	4.3329	4.9631	-5.8038	1.4243	4.4831	2.5038	5.4737	4.9292	-5.7728
2007Q2	2.9837	4.6368	2.2211	3.9762	4.697	-5.4949	2.8613	4.3866	2.307	4.3336	4.7378	-5.5199	1.8632	4.5079	2.2154	5.4667	4.68	-5.4448
2007Q3	4.0119	4.6471	2.2118	4.2487	4.3925	-4.9843	3.843	4.4236	2.2962	4.8104	4.4163	-5.0251	2.7394	4.6565	2.2157	5.2796	4.3414	-4.8411
2007Q4	3.7826	4.6353	2.4559	4.6697	4.0082	-4.9203	3.5441	4.4476	2.533	5.1819	4.0163	-4.9342	2.531	4.7679	2.4817	4.6644	3.9418	-4.6124
2008Q1	3.0974	4.7171	2.31	4.1177	3.6709	-5.3978	2.7916	4.5729	2.3882	4.1793	3.668	-5.352	2.0379	4.9339	2.3791	3.2776	3.6041	-4.9896
2008Q2	2.3352	5.1162	2.4054	4.1194	3.4654	-5.6765	2.0011	5.0053	2.4963	4.0116	3.4595	-5.5875	1.6002	5.3648	2.548	2.1369	3.4089	-5.1793
2008Q3	0.2054	5.8221	2.4205	3.3937	3.2555	-5.4785	-0.0846	5.7353	2.5437	2.5513	3.2503	-5.3264	0.0262	6.0354	2.6195	1.9878	3.2217	-5.0645
2008Q4	-2.0972	6.6958	1.7994	1.4074	3.0079	-4.5746	-2.2315	6.6083	1.9633	0.1269	3.0146	-4.3567	-1.8619	6.8492	2.0357	0.5163	2.9819	-4.3179

Return to Figure 9

Figure 10: Conditional Forecast for Federal Funds Rate (percent)

obs	Federal Funds Rate + 2 s.d.	Federal Funds Rate - 2 s.d.	Federal Funds Rate + 1 s.d.	Federal Funds Rate - 1 s.d.	Federal Funds Rate
2000Q1	5.67549452656547	5.67549448441862	5.67549451602876	5.67549449495533	5.6754945054945
2000Q2	6.27329670329409	6.27329670329409	6.27329670329409	6.27329670329409	6.2732967032967
2000Q3	6.51999999999716	6.51999999999716	6.51999999999716	6.51999999999716	6.51999999999999
2000Q4	6.47293478260569	6.47293478260569	6.47293478260569	6.47293478260569	6.47293478260869
2001Q1	5.596777798848	5.59677775670115	5.59677778831129	5.59677776723786	5.59677777777777
2001Q2	4.32538463645463	4.32538459430779	4.32538462591792	4.3253846048445	4.32538461538461
2001Q3	3.50130436889588	3.50130432674903	3.50130435835917	3.50130433728575	3.50130434782608
2001Q4	2.13380436889576	2.13380432674891	2.13380435835904	2.13380433728562	2.13380434782608
2002Q1	1.73311111110707	1.73311111110707	1.73311111110707	1.73311111110707	1.73311111111111
2002Q2	1.75000002106931	1.74999997892246	1.7500000105326	1.74999998945918	1.75
2002Q3	1.7398913043436	1.7398913043436	1.7398913043436	1.7398913043436	1.73989130434782
2002Q4	1.44445654280855	1.4444565006617	1.44445653227183	1.44445651119841	1.44445652173913
2003Q1	3.08806400268467	0.2837833196488	2.3869938319257	0.984853490407769	1.24966666666666
2003Q2	2.57235859323251	-0.769485398586173	1.73689759527784	0.0659755993684989	1.24681318681318
2003Q3	2.36922265025331	-1.28867829234388	1.45474741460401	-0.374203056694582	1.01673913043478
2003Q4	2.91226294401101	-0.926533933976694	1.95256372451408	0.033165285520232	0.996630434782609
2004Q1	3.29177309067813	-0.6554613602255	2.30496447795222	0.331347252500407	1.00318681318681
2004Q2	4.1654875922777	0.152393934358271	3.16221417779784	1.15566734883813	1.00989010989011
2004Q3	4.86850525880422	0.81502338925481	3.85513479141687	1.82839385664216	1.43141304347826
2004Q4	5.22509054601097	1.14669403481969	4.20549141821315	2.16629316261751	1.95021739130434
2005Q1	5.04562590373442	0.951780438190732	4.02216453734849	1.97524180457665	2.469
2005Q2	5.34312690345155	1.23963337679989	4.31725352178863	2.26550675846281	2.94395604395604
2005Q3	6.17199970437674	2.06239305743808	5.14459804264207	3.08979471917275	3.45826086956521
2005Q4	6.04863143663323	1.93501982281096	5.02022853317766	2.96342272626652	3.97978260869565
2006Q1	6.48861785832903	2.37217840635996	5.45950799533676	3.40128826935223	4.45555555555555
2006Q2	7.2403701677706	3.12162439161439	6.21068372373155	4.15131083565344	4.90703296703296
2006Q3	6.6413262516638	2.52026203726617	5.61106019806439	3.55052809086558	5.2466304347826
2006Q4	6.74375395757194	2.61982373269775	5.71277140135339	3.65080628891629	5.2466304347826
2007Q1	6.47173610302362	2.34373170978956	5.43973500471511	3.37573280809808	5.25655555555555
2007Q2	6.12311976562859	1.98889658025339	5.08956396928479	3.02245237659719	5.25
2007Q3	5.60383469010142	1.4598239951957	4.56783201637499	2.49582666892213	5.07478260869565
2007Q4	5.17918107588167	1.01959030754643	4.13928338379786	2.05948799963024	4.49673913043478
2008Q1	4.42570614626578	0.241203008238457	3.37958036175895	1.28732879274528	3.18098901098901
2008Q2	4.24905715462424	0.0249564968902773	3.19303199019075	1.08098166132377	2.0854945054945
2008Q3	4.50741723997638	0.214374807611291	3.43415663188511	1.28763541570256	1.94141304347826
2008Q4	3.16350712012861	-1.41029779612327	2.02005589106564	-0.2668465670603	0.507934782608696

Return to Figure 10

Figure 11: Conditional Forecasts for Residential Investment Share and House Prices

obs	Percent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) + 2.s.d	Percent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) - 2.s.d	Percent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) + 1.s.d	Percent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) - 1.s.d	Percent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate)	Residential Investment as a Share of GDP + 2.s.d	Residential Investment as a Share of GDP - 2.s.d	Residential Investment as a Share of GDP + 1.s.d	Residential Investment as a Share of GDP - 1.s.d	Residential Investment as a Share of GDP
2000Q1	2.50E-11	2.50E-11	2.50E-11	2.50E-11	0	4.62665632220003	4.62665632220003	4.62665632220003	4.62665632220003	4.62665632220026
2000Q2	2.27532334813522	2.27532330598837	2.27532333759851	2.27532331652508	2.2753233270374	4.5278376379014	4.5278376379014	4.5278376379014	4.5278376379014	4.52783763790164
2000Q3	3.97947890576533	3.97947890576533	3.97947890576533	3.97947890576533	3.9794789057414	4.45266875721779	4.45266875721779	4.45266875721779	4.45266875721779	4.45266875721802
2000Q4	5.67194556886377	5.67194553906144	5.67194556141318	5.67194554651202	5.671945553939	4.44390587972799	4.44390587972799	4.44390587972799	4.44390587972799	4.44390587972818
2001Q1	7.41376231932448	7.41376231932448	7.41376231932448	7.41376231932448	7.4137623193013	4.50825945883483	4.50825945356648	4.50825945751774	4.50825945488357	4.50825945620082
2001Q2	9.19788177627749	9.19788177627749	9.19788177627749	9.19788177627749	9.1978817762546	4.56632489617761	4.56632489617761	4.56632489617761	4.56632489617761	4.56632489617775
2001Q3	10.8624484229049	10.862448380758	10.8624484123682	10.8624483912947	10.8624484018088	4.66623646687	4.66623645941942	4.66623646500735	4.66623646128206	4.66623646314482
2001Q4	12.3099490224205	12.3099489926182	12.3099490149699	12.3099490000688	12.3099490074969	4.62801399108042	4.62801398581207	4.62801398976333	4.62801398712916	4.6280139884463
2002Q1	13.8588326116914	13.8588326116914	13.8588326116914	13.8588326116914	13.8588326116692	4.68490756914677	4.68490756914677	4.68490756914677	4.68490756914677	4.6849075691468
2002Q2	15.3284479441709	15.3284479441709	15.3284479441709	15.3284479441709	15.3284479441491	4.7782499994812	4.7782499994812	4.7782499994812	4.7782499994812	4.77824999948122
2002Q3	17.566603235744	17.566603235744	17.566603235744	17.566603235744	17.5666032357226	4.77926737454772	4.77926737454772	4.77926737454772	4.77926737454772	4.77926737454777
2002Q4	19.8666524450787	19.8666524450787	19.8666524450787	19.8666524450787	19.8666524450576	4.90459821844982	4.90459821318147	4.90459821713273	4.90459821449856	4.90459821581569
2003Q1	22.2513381279851	20.1632885554456	21.7293257348502	20.6853009485805	21.7547958595024	5.11656842147719	4.75862408687451	5.02708233782652	4.84811017052518	5.00684813434374
2003Q2	23.9481759381894	20.4933591814411	23.0844717490023	21.3570633706282	23.2809141470172	5.26209823074575	4.76079648424242	5.13677279411992	4.88612192086825	5.06775885824241
2003Q3	25.379904003704	20.9673360244911	24.2767620089008	22.0704780192943	25.1853743703413	5.29388540558581	4.70753482679381	5.14729776088781	4.85412247149181	5.24274382328096
2003Q4	26.756660254111	21.6489884336519	25.4797422989962	22.9259063887667	27.4145036063293	5.32235165925547	4.6779825855549	5.16125939083033	4.83907485398004	5.40824009667438
2004Q1	27.8003539617275	22.1522108828282	26.3883181920027	23.564246652553	30.5720611076542	5.28928743346425	4.60165681076215	5.11737977778872	4.77356446643767	5.4977832944517
2004Q2	28.9679145790709	22.8759120129528	27.4449139375414	24.3989126544823	34.0611708322353	5.29793691351951	4.57656295748503	5.11759342451089	4.75690644649365	5.73590257330108
2004Q3	30.1542542064782	23.685176834258	28.5369848634231	25.3024461773131	37.0556619983309	5.33300755653831	4.58468822156926	5.14592772279605	4.77176805531152	5.82896428572922
2004Q4	31.2582601124324	24.4621586460233	29.5592347458301	26.1611840126256	40.0797528875286	5.35760217702372	4.58735492196487	5.16504036325901	4.77991673572959	5.86786661918455
2005Q1	32.4917049139011	25.407872574854	30.7207468291393	27.1788306596158	44.1128269999633	5.3656493903446	4.57716460111748	5.16852819303782	4.77428579842426	5.93578627586055
2005Q2	33.7738094425177	26.4336098716183	31.9387595497929	28.2686597643431	47.6313562353319	5.3408362552302	4.53677899993497	5.13982194140639	4.73779331375878	6.1075969466649
2005Q3	35.197368778926	27.6255659714949	33.3044180770682	29.5185166733527	50.3954797798008	5.32205711595836	4.50430467073151	5.11761900465165	4.70874278203822	6.2209553654032
2005Q4	36.6584408396407	28.8737587311436	34.7122703125164	30.8199292582679	52.5906106686651	5.36488587393715	4.53472459257816	5.15734555359741	4.74226491291791	6.25486716783752
2006Q1	38.0165281884154	30.0318232089957	36.0203519435605	32.0279994538506	53.9909530162261	5.28665703758172	4.44494675472639	5.07622946686789	4.65537432544022	6.16936817103435
2006Q2	39.4821203142453	31.3044044643915	37.4376913517819	33.348833426855	53.85692567917	5.19903261528021	4.3463411840968	4.98585975748436	4.55951404189266	5.87691076953413
2006Q3	41.0347964189846	32.6652726387906	38.9424154739361	34.7576535838391	52.9496735206837	5.11864596593878	4.25535293570595	4.90282270838057	4.47117619326415	5.51314124304284
2006Q4	42.5892209397667	34.0234426658107	40.4477763712777	36.1648872342997	52.9926455099557	5.03043060518662	4.15679620026603	4.81202200395647	4.37520480149617	5.20227222018269
2007Q1	44.0649413525819	35.2931622871364	41.8719965862205	37.4861070534978	50.4485317030564	4.97399427071494	4.0901865399686	4.75304233802835	4.31113847265518	4.92922871015223
2007Q2	45.5963790568378	36.6041167690303	43.3483134848859	38.8521823409822	48.2798456981186	4.95713958577221	4.06320618991278	4.73365623680735	4.28668953887764	4.68004293994908
2007Q3	46.7757933881913	37.5446883709726	44.4680171338866	39.8524646252773	45.4391101464993	4.88444137490022	3.98020403108848	4.65838203894729	4.20626336704142	4.34139382095886
2007Q4	47.5865214900942	38.0961431208571	45.213926897785	40.4687377131664	41.2376714003033	4.70783370118499	3.79270741352834	4.47905212927083	4.0214889854425	3.94175896366146
2008Q1	47.9961635907399	38.2293314201351	45.5544555480887	40.6710394627863	35.2906560263302	4.56588949942	3.63880123365274	4.33411743297818	3.87057330009455	3.60414694481141
2008Q2	47.8437358435478	37.7999893555947	45.3327992215595	40.3109259775829	30.1430293363511	4.41508496170908	3.47505646648872	4.18007783790399	3.71006359029381	3.40887073405738
2008Q3	47.4980648861148	37.2069254257724	44.9252800210292	39.779710290858	25.6274607331124	4.23116291587532	3.27930460724387	3.99319833871746	3.51726918440173	3.22167049754487
2008Q4	47.0223810000823	36.4966837140214	44.3909566785671	39.1281080355366	18.7259942304209	4.0982046359503	3.11713289865326	3.85293670162604	3.36240083297752	2.98194075638024
	3.64881331866219		21.8928799119732

Return to Figure 11

Figure 12: Monetary Policy and House Prices in the Advanced Economies

	Average Taylor rule residuals (2002:Q1-2006:Q3)	Change in real house prices (2001:Q4-2006:Q3)
AUS	-0.746898958	36.86542681
AUT	-1.451886895	-3.304606502
BEL	-1.728200132	52.26687654
CAN	-2.187677337	40.65607588
CHE	-1.612597021	7.955787803
DEN	-1.536995468	54.6999224
DEU	-0.698262242	-13.46903937
ESP	-3.514955421	72.22954942
FIN	0.007806716	36.1344025
FRA	-1.460192921	60.79750998
GBR	-0.073842942	54.89628006
GRC	-4.050630316	27.07284383
IRL	-3.486935789	68.71601682
ITA	-1.945395721	31.97773894
JPN	-0.404205416	-20.15857215
NOR	-0.257227311	32.63434675
NLD	-1.341901189	11.13349463
NZL	-0.098985995	69.91819445
SWE	-0.362288084	41.85135791
USA	-2.452955637	27.91317547

Return to Figure 12

Figure 13: Monetary Policy and Residential Investment in the Advanced Economies

	Average Taylor rule residuals (2002:Q1-2006:Q3)	Average quarterly percentage point change in residential investment as a share of GDP (2002:Q1-2006:Q3)
AUS	-0.746898958	0.018886763
AUT	-1.451886895	-0.015017263
BEL	-1.728200132	0.075777963
CAN	-2.187677337	0.076047595
CHE	-1.612597021	0.016494237
DEN	-1.536995468	0.140424168
DEU	-0.698262242	-0.027316911
ESP	-3.514955421	0.141747953
FIN	0.007806716	0.057793995
FRA	-1.460192921	0.064903926
GBR	-0.073842942	0.096384279
GRC	-4.050630316	0.101769868
IRL	-3.486935789	0.306374511
ITA	-1.945395721	0.044765426
JPN	-0.404205416	-0.005824258
NOR	-0.257227311	0.027437432
NLD	-1.341901189	0.013177226
NZL	-0.098985995	0.072956947
SWE	-0.362288084	0.064644158
USA	-2.452955637	0.047305042

Return to Figure 13

Figure 14: MBS and Portfolio Outstanding

Year	Mortgages Outstanding	MBS Outstanding Total ($billions)	MBS Outstanding FHA/VA ($billions)	MBS Outstanding F&F ($billions)	MBS Outstanding Non-Agency ($billions)	MBS Outstanding Portfolio ($billions)
1990	2615	1067	401	611	55	1548
1991	2782	1247	425	725	97	1535
1992	2947	1408	420	846	142	1539
1993	3106	1519	414	937	168	1587
1994	3283	1640	451	1006	183	1643
1995	3451	1744	472	1078	194	1707
1996	3675	1902	506	1180	215	1773
1997	3910	2049	537	1259	254	1860
1998	4258	2301	537	1442	322	1957
1999	4674	2602	582	1666	353	2072
2000	5110	3001	612	2012	378	2109
2001	5681	3428	591	2374	463	2252
2002	6438	3825	538	2744	544	2612
2003	7217	4433	474	3293	666	2784
2004	8252	4848	441	3359	1049	3404
2005	9363	5495	405	3468	1622	3868
2006	10423	6318	410	3767	2141	4105
2007	11112	6984	443	4368	2172	4129
2008	11004	7142	597	4692	1853	3862
2009	10951	7261	699	4881	1680	3690

Return to Figure 14

Figure 15: Applications for Adjustable-Rate Mortgages as a Share of All Mortgage Applications

	ARM Share Actual	ARM Share Forecast	ARM Share Predicted	ARM Share Standard Error
1996M01	13.079805		12.7158964378339	3.03126522925891
1996M02	14.544269		14.5129548697875	3.00183143036622
1996M03	17.839366		20.9327039937905	2.96061757370851
1996M04	20.44715		24.0787791878908	2.97049359963912
1996M05	22.537966		25.0746318158991	2.96805576528679
1996M06	23.764322		27.2897583355642	2.97439582492207
1996M07	23.234089		26.9448880010079	2.96306133801099
1996M08	22.754612		23.4357267137099	2.93589677158625
1996M09	24.904013		26.3760927848185	2.9643724839935
1996M10	23.624819		22.1810988315179	2.94025540151986
1996M11	21.771795		18.9128697797302	2.92355733085551
1996M12	22.470825		19.5145170061997	2.92344669158705
1997M01	22.628433		22.3545962390698	2.94343873629205
1997M02	21.2425		19.5574389913306	2.93191829497775
1997M03	22.316158		22.8100367565198	2.94307213737446
1997M04	21.894698		23.724014598951	2.95331497128381
1997M05	20.478572		21.4044553015877	2.94070462009214
1997M06	20.121022		18.2147562314416	2.93788684891032
1997M07	16.383255		16.1675026267394	2.92967424617966
1997M08	17.054574		16.8382475040635	2.93103350183303
1997M09	16.996354		15.1581143380481	2.93517028908233
1997M10	14.71124		14.1059177393056	2.92859888642184
1997M11	13.076434		13.5900539596527	2.92881355123655
1997M12	12.064678		12.070278109062	2.93769207879732
1998M01	7.743208		10.0086836933684	2.9430238452218
1998M02	8.121093		10.7245208220967	2.93505518162544
1998M03	8.744858		11.4183670255723	2.93129541758768
1998M04	9.19329		12.0169358870444	2.92821138743767
1998M05	8.697547		11.2016430284763	2.93393435369457
1998M06	9.461102		9.79083222120107	2.94915372927751
1998M07	8.23308399999999		9.37298258781948	2.94907143932286
1998M08	8.41183799999999		9.06904889074415	2.95035780144253
1998M09	7.25322		6.67107276111544	2.9740371029121
1998M10	8.218234		7.74359403057292	2.95834675326359
1998M11	8.65232999999999		9.57475272271727	2.97227903347139
1998M12	7.666664		8.87114467385327	3.01989850219498
1999M01	8.189236		8.8411415275279	2.99272055892346
1999M02	9.317159		9.18639161174085	2.97191503537242
1999M03	10.361752		11.1300820479466	2.94558329655865
1999M04	11.272452		10.1320723858201	2.93458196621776
1999M05	13.021001		13.4742303438377	2.9147890319733
1999M06	17.259132		18.7630316349849	2.9257227039564
1999M07	18.910925		18.5697006878296	2.90240592007941
1999M08	23.518328		21.8147084553549	2.92393390781248
1999M09	25.693517		19.437946271277	2.90455803033602
1999M10	25.680123		20.0619963795721	2.91863135488746
1999M11	26.386255		17.850033636031	2.91163116883976
1999M12	28.844877		19.6759757916238	2.9274544975619
2000M01	30.015858		23.3341080935905	2.95545792003327
2000M02	28.972097		24.9025476626534	2.97708303189929
2000M03	26.361858		24.1824807501636	2.99498236755237
2000M04	23.954195		23.3110701171113	3.01537584064634
2000M05	26.248259		27.4512467804256	3.064202824345
2000M06	18.455937		21.6797233839258	2.99334954818551
2000M07	16.87235		20.1415921932257	2.98592667916481
2000M08	15.608074		18.6090747644741	3.00636946878511
2000M09	15.158018		16.7662182163062	2.98942134775077
2000M10	13.942894		15.9432734384047	3.00476864209003
2000M11	12.989557		15.4313435615116	3.03071695937993
2000M12	13.112682		9.65997638708382	3.0589241179064
2001M01	10.761641		6.64058476136205	3.10047125996746
2001M02	8.573582		8.74636070829283	3.00282704208962
2001M03	9.290105		8.07910429677733	3.02416146545692
2001M04	9.181098		11.2519206204342	3.00120454763478
2001M05	9.323423		13.767511483534	2.95780585347856
2001M06	10.507086		14.278740657699	2.93673402624507
2001M07	11.284861		14.1149340918914	2.91738316583523
2001M08	12.096452		11.2561851777671	2.95190285272962
2001M09	10.796066		10.1285944121832	2.99635408445756
2001M10	8.94331299999999		10.2244938131275	2.97659213830802
2001M11	9.409177		12.6165062589796	2.97658587306437
2001M12	13.101008		17.4427802569337	3.0313136934503
2002M01	15.460471		15.6153609266243	3.06818789031268
2002M02	14.553859		15.1543956192517	3.00247027485434
2002M03	15.416436		18.9127939896178	3.01105253138105
2002M04	15.753292		17.0679122985727	2.98733556778273
2002M05	16.825091		16.0863523755086	2.96929086402023
2002M06	18.149853		14.8645880577877	2.95797403380611
2002M07	18.274222		13.3239545081934	2.97058423683743
2002M08	14.186841		11.988501766724	3.00401263746986
2002M09	12.27097		11.6410863515738	3.12616472440334
2002M10	13.790799		12.4306951586414	3.11829600382328
2002M11	13.191734		12.5091429977718	3.12723120745244
2002M12	13.019587	11.72354	11.72354479022	3.12276978843781
2003M01	13.255108	11.4201669165725		3.15308120909868
2003M02	13.375	11.0219982478873		3.2176170766046
2003M03	13.190813	10.6026236010974		3.26439090653716
2003M04	14.51528	10.673536457158		3.22790641631655
2003M05	12.942661	7.04332760417018		3.3630421407164
2003M06	14.264843	5.84317392478112		3.45677634504091
2003M07	17.878458	12.0588977826481		3.26540666911635
2003M08	23.239457	17.3960324874595		3.18231084660663
2003M09	22.551866	14.3619001550483		3.2583478206488
2003M10	25.556364	14.4246376292425		3.30753259241739
2003M11	27.038266	14.1630265912641		3.3415222754315
2003M12	29.201292	13.0735382525923		3.35352667130848
2004M01	27.098901	12.3030523770917		3.48514455075596
2004M02	27.4242139999999	12.1020383198924		3.60954917766787
2004M03	27.995526	11.1923987679257		3.8128713628161
2004M04	31.312751	16.494451425574		3.75008731342423
2004M05	34.603085	21.2303065872898		3.8162170647973
2004M06	34.189177	21.3990927460212		3.98548248055222
2004M07	32.5120209999999	18.3516575131917		4.09262926593908
2004M08	33.186834	16.1827490248116		4.19287805348446
2004M09	33.053364	16.2482233150405		4.46844796060957
2004M10	34.7677959999999	15.9403937658637		4.58630335085212
2004M11	33.867777	16.5486031860151		4.77858813326903
2004M12	33.84931	15.3806754949988		4.61687885333231
2005M01	32.404834	17.8115847690435		5.39199500246156
2005M02	30.793461	18.0868551250164		5.71264591332354
2005M03	33.9118769999999	22.3581275550915		5.90438020602944
2005M04	34.8329719999999	21.1617534088426		6.06321332557738
2005M05	34.009174	19.5703053860838		6.25301544986685
2005M06	30.685088	18.6874107724424		6.45544587269637
2005M07	28.660618	19.7920301773454		6.50147072165274
2005M08	28.217293	20.4998961995142		6.57546235107275
2005M09	28.990788	20.4668016285272		6.64258688723769
2005M10	29.576533	23.291381312535		6.62809404605753
2005M11	32.901831	25.0099330571606		6.65267155494588
2005M12	31.813456	24.0943870340709		6.68142024912737
2006M01	29.764967	22.2994988115987		6.68385379417903
2006M02	28.8952139999999	22.7950879315468		6.69331365079323
2006M03	28.525014	23.3053205821803		6.60074721813531
2006M04	28.486279	23.7265448284699		6.37627526460466
2006M05	29.904958	24.250451456475		6.3308163349743
2006M06	29.721931	25.169316865108		6.35432194426121
2006M07	28.440265	25.1885686717485		6.35874986085685
2006M08	26.7972	22.137239824005		6.30044579810475
2006M09	26.468832	20.8368513338466		6.29561648786697
2006M10	26.345279	20.2403980540173		6.26197429801587
2006M11	25.010876	18.7536703049066		6.28467903278397
2006M12	22.843292	17.4265953367122		6.1888633979474
2007M01	21.070833	18.4544713522865		6.10517730362427
2007M02	21.254899	17.8794028354166		5.96843028091844
2007M03	20.566854	16.0739041517581		5.78520942096857
2007M04	18.209798	16.0231411037726		5.6903521101368
2007M05	17.765584	16.6547958370667		5.53772097833637
2007M06	20.049524	19.9812410023852		5.2470314424518
2007M07	21.386856	20.1673681640918		5.13991863551242
2007M08	17.328738	16.184730037235		4.78118288167145
2007M09	13.004538	13.3011717819172		4.51059515433143
2007M10	14.028037	12.4042564536842		4.21380326860771
2007M11	14.383157	9.41557344906682		3.92869562133275
2007M12	9.828562	7.15168438310987		3.69944795849964

Return to Figure 15

Figure A1: Comparison of Policy Rates and Taylor Rules In the Advanced Foreign Economies

Dates	policyrate_al	taylor_rule_al	policyrate_au	taylor_rule_au	policyrate_be	taylor_rule_be	policyrate_ca	taylor_rule_ca	policyrate_dn	taylor_rule_dn	policyrate_fn	taylor_rule_fn	policyrate_fr	taylor_rule_fr	policyrate_ge	taylor_rule_ge	policyrate_gr	taylor_rule_gr	policyrate_ir	taylor_rule_ir	policyrate_it	taylor_rule_it	policyrate_ja	taylor_rule_ja	policyrate_nl	taylor_rule_nl	policyrate_no	taylor_rule_no	policyrate_nz	taylor_rule_nz	policyrate_pt	taylor_rule_pt	policyrate_sd	taylor_rule_sd	policyrate_sp	taylor_rule_sp	policyrate_sz	taylor_rule_sz	policyrate_uk	taylor_rule_uk	policyrate_us	taylor_rule_us
99q1	4.75	3.85668	3	2.305046	3	3.020505	4.997222	3.769839	3.344445	4.109313	3	2.723001	3	2.02107	3	1.623926	12	6.204429	3	4.704447	3	2.997952	0.5	-0.5121199	3	4.943111	7.488889	3.706407	4.85	1.824167	3	6.101106	3.277778	1.788434	3	4.770994	1	1.597312	5.705555	4.515286	4.75	4.866072
99q2	4.75	3.631518	2.543956	2.259904	2.543956	2.830124	4.590659	4.980474	2.793956	4.295093	2.543956	3.242109	2.543956	2.290263	2.543956	1.819431	12	5.071809	2.543956	4.447355	2.543956	3.174184	0.5	-0.2583159	2.543956	5.007051	6.56044	4.007817	4.5	1.421449	2.543956	5.417095	2.9	1.890553	2.543956	5.345119	0.5	1.833861	5.211538	4.288875	4.752747	5.380947
99q3	4.75	4.342757	2.5	2.493056	2.5	3.108466	4.5	5.901286	2.75	4.901832	2.5	3.054408	2.5	2.589458	2.5	2.361328	12	5.829967	2.5	4.59691	2.5	3.78293	0.5	0.0952419	2.5	5.172533	5.956522	4.303544	4.5	1.697886	2.5	4.563144	2.9	2.764128	2.5	5.649354	0.5	2.984422	5.0625	4.179457	5.103261	5.765961
99q4	4.910326	4.577112	2.809783	3.200598	2.809783	4.268231	4.622283	6.285063	2.904891	5.988593	2.809783	4.091958	2.809783	3.427928	2.809783	2.964009	11.25	5.204373	2.809783	5.8069	2.809783	4.722464	0.5	-1.103519	2.809783	5.025422	5.5	5.325279	4.744565	3.138921	2.809783	4.245979	3.071196	3.543697	2.809783	6.068063	0.5	4.11699	5.407609	4.067754	5.375	6.441793
00q1	5.324176	6.021877	3.197802	4.010338	3.197802	4.787142	4.936813	6.675	3.197802	6.303042	3.197802	5.694306	3.197802	4.25463	3.197802	4.145663	9.583333	6.243274	3.197802	8.002043	3.197802	5.286656	0.5	0.3020203	3.197802	4.678966	5.5	5.897373	5.293956	5.19451	3.197802	4.373501	3.535714	3.045327	3.197802	6.581662	2.06	4.107472	5.857143	3.623828	5.692307	6.994404
00q2	5.901099	6.593093	3.796703	4.727734	3.796703	5.238486	5.497253	6.223905	3.796703	6.031223	3.796703	5.659986	3.796703	4.129023	3.796703	3.679127	8.583333	5.80008	3.796703	10.174	3.796703	5.469148	0.5	0.3811052	3.796703	4.757379	5.804945	5.041896	6.197802	5.174416	3.796703	4.912493	3.75	3.299491	3.796703	6.605065	2.633333	4.131938	6	3.315994	6.252747	7.250149
00q3	6.163043	10.59103	4.331522	5.713593	4.331522	6.115456	5.75	6.550296	4.331522	5.31645	4.331522	6.411536	4.331522	4.423294	4.331522	3.669983	8	5.903172	4.331522	11.07527	4.331522	5.786633	0.5	0.1611045	4.331522	4.963729	6.559783	6.257822	6.5	6.455341	4.331522	6.668804	3.75	2.953119	4.331522	7.152799	3.056667	4.09526	6	3.375969	6.5	6.998051
00q4	6.25	9.465753	4.736413	5.469035	4.736413	5.884974	5.75	6.605353	4.736413	5.176335	4.736413	6.31187	4.736413	4.450553	4.736413	3.954833	6.25	7.458968	4.736413	12.08321	4.736413	5.946625	0.5	0.6482666	4.736413	5.389569	7	5.453931	6.5	7.81516	4.736413	6.72084	3.80163	2.837435	4.736413	7.548409	3.103333	3.886219	6	3.398416	6.5	6.809063
01q1	5.886111	9.904549	4.75	5.093339	4.75	4.408869	5.416667	5.85335	4.75	4.349604	4.75	5.525564	4.75	3.389438	4.75	4.061705	4.75	6.596985	4.75	9.831635	4.75	6.181488	0.4103896	0.6034371	4.75	6.893095	7	6.244891	6.45	6.194005	4.75	7.871748	4	3.194814	4.75	7.377171	3.472222	2.970667	5.855556	3.347972	5.611111	6.392508
01q2	5.016483	10.02771	4.60989	5.232412	4.60989	5.36257	4.703297	6.731314	4.618132	4.217248	4.60989	5.353199	4.60989	4.096866	4.60989	4.974603	4.60989	7.061228	4.60989	9.003936	4.60989	5.914897	0.1	-0.2646778	4.60989	7.465371	7	6.83995	5.923077	7.049216	4.60989	7.734797	4	4.61849	4.60989	7.324934	3.25	3.297757	5.368132	4.106313	4.324176	6.158753
01q3	4.929348	5.014486	4.345109	4.378519	4.345109	4.279643	4.125	5.046282	4.345109	4.40011	4.345109	4.242128	4.345109	3.580877	4.345109	4.062471	4.345109	7.255605	4.345109	7.229605	4.345109	5.179912	0.1	-0.9305187	4.345109	6.91298	7	5.023518	5.684783	5.577071	4.345109	6.871905	4.157609	4.763144	4.345109	6.807933	3.141304	2.255743	5.05163	4.052718	3.5625	4.861613
01q4	4.432065	6.101117	3.461957	3.723881	3.461957	3.625818	2.73913	2.693511	3.461957	3.765297	3.461957	2.847933	3.461957	2.656348	3.461957	3.341957	3.461957	5.787632	3.461957	6.099834	3.461957	4.381694	0.1	-1.482468	3.461957	6.418228	6.896739	4.154761	4.98913	5.080679	3.461957	6.597706	3.75	4.430585	3.461957	5.16992	2.11413	1.414728	4.214674	3.229541	2.144022	3.711818
02q1	4.25	5.912627	3.25	3.596922	3.25	4.759199	2.038889	3.660395	3.25	4.022694	3.25	3.075427	3.25	3.846901	3.25	3.570718	3.25	7.094445	3.25	8.015652	3.25	4.364394	0.1	-1.775789	3.25	5.680648	6.5	2.062527	4.783333	6.107694	3.25	5.479814	3.783333	4.566389	3.25	4.799486	1.75	1.614446	4	4.039291	1.75	2.926176
02q2	4.46978	5.92415	3.25	3.354918	3.25	2.76807	2.282967	3.329855	3.25	4.085987	3.25	2.528299	3.25	3.151212	3.25	2.479735	3.25	6.352859	3.25	7.599922	3.25	4.209407	0.1	-0.6424662	3.25	5.123939	6.5	2.368701	5.335165	6.374716	3.25	5.659618	4.164835	3.857805	3.25	5.807149	1.42033	1.711601	4	3.031841	1.75	3.16432
02q3	4.75	6.496306	3.25	3.171429	3.25	2.788312	2.709239	4.903001	3.25	3.949076	3.25	2.330767	3.25	3.292799	3.25	2.402718	3.25	6.557242	3.25	7.612833	3.25	4.341332	0.1	-0.271883	3.25	4.935974	6.983696	2.794845	5.744565	6.562428	3.25	5.32914	4.25	3.482894	3.25	4.508012	0.8858696	0.9746015	4	3.206706	1.75	3.675577
02q4	4.75	6.040885	3.108696	3.204035	3.108696	2.612328	2.75	7.122486	3.108696	4.258593	3.108696	2.95978	3.108696	3.682226	3.108696	2.325807	3.108696	6.661794	3.108696	8.032152	3.108696	4.867555	0.1	0.0804504	3.108696	4.258029	6.891304	4.253286	5.75	7.185736	3.108696	5.524235	4.078804	3.951393	3.108696	6.586599	0.75	1.913525	4	3.927861	1.445652	4.591061
03q1	4.75	6.755649	2.680556	3.170969	2.680556	2.97726	2.827778	8.065551	2.680556	4.821726	2.680556	2.643864	2.680556	4.117495	2.680556	2.02728	2.680556	7.556814	2.680556	7.430389	2.680556	4.605797	0.1	0.2531072	2.680556	3.706907	5.977778	7.501602	5.75	6.560722	2.680556	5.760139	3.713889	5.283099	2.680556	6.69043	0.6416667	1.740871	3.85	3.938367	1.25	5.70893
03q2	4.75	5.451385	2.362637	2.29847	2.362637	2.69348	3.211539	5.228613	2.362637	3.461538	2.362637	1.73114	2.362637	3.324121	2.362637	1.510799	2.362637	7.37838	2.362637	6.139972	2.362637	4.401089	0.1	0.4738568	2.362637	3.056939	5.115385	4.250164	5.491758	4.518137	2.362637	5.121752	3.39011	3.317421	2.362637	4.933485	0.375	1.052915	3.75	3.772583	1.233516	4.514749
03q3	4.75	5.624563	2	2.499913	2	3.281206	2.961957	4.158185	2	3.071187	2	1.566597	2	3.587915	2	2.076636	2	6.831962	2	4.722179	2	4.623367	0.1	0.7070674	2	3.290347	3.396739	4.007357	5.0625	4.626999	2	4.356253	2.771739	3.162733	2	5.301604	0.375	1.215034	3.524457	4.046285	1	5.431705
03q4	4.983696	5.562932	2	2.521181	2	3.447587	2.75	3.868062	2	3.412812	2	1.435618	2	4.075927	2	2.424757	2	6.546089	2	4.959826	2	4.455303	0.1	0.9815761	2	3.27648	2.461957	2.851775	5	4.591086	2	3.93739	2.75	2.821975	2	4.805954	0.375	1.557185	3.652174	4.060873	1	5.127111
04q1	5.25	4.774104	2	2.950538	2	3.178168	2.46978	2.720883	2	2.54811	2	0.988408	2	3.587888	2	2.308776	2	5.913406	2	3.22711	2	4.29706	0.1	1.483095	2	2.64467	2.021978	0.0890829	5.173077	5.053691	2	3.882734	2.612637	1.244909	2	4.345784	0.375	1.316061	3.903846	3.863349	1	4.864151
04q2	5.25	5.336096	2	4.144919	2	4.685378	2.032967	4.967312	2	2.814226	2	0.9531865	2	4.642105	2	3.568076	2	6.010405	2	3.010956	2	4.470157	0.1	0.8121922	2	3.093448	1.75	3.424643	5.480769	6.133705	2	4.569733	2.032967	1.96587	2	5.611201	0.3942308	2.733057	4.211538	4.232067	1.002747	6.422172
04q3	5.25	5.032507	2	4.621643	2	4.721064	2.0625	4.857323	2	3.013826	2	1.811249	2	4.485986	2	3.482192	2	5.781629	2	4.268243	2	4.41183	0.1	1.072448	2	2.668839	1.75	3.0337	5.983696	6.018192	2	4.276128	2	2.156453	2	6.222243	0.5407609	2.420319	4.654891	3.822588	1.418478	6.378093
04q4	5.25	5.299027	2	5.539783	2	5.150471	2.451087	5.288239	2	3.663113	2	2.422872	2	4.354964	2	3.819681	2	6.086813	2	5.086664	2	3.859104	0.1	1.648706	2	2.966076	1.75	3.335992	6.42663	5.981999	2	4.169116	2	2.044338	2	6.223217	0.75	3.266813	4.75	4.100796	1.940217	7.305872
05q1	5.333333	4.999641	2	5.880139	2	5.116148	2.5	4.833643	2	2.803294	2	1.931069	2	3.710848	2	3.318045	2	5.985873	2	4.455348	2	3.666275	0.1	0.6198359	2	3.452889	1.75	3.141221	6.561111	5.949123	2	3.912988	2	1.690229	2	6.147801	0.75	3.278206	4.75	4.496777	2.438889	6.773226
05q2	5.5	5.476397	2	5.395869	2	5.422727	2.5	4.567347	2	4.823893	2	2.400866	2	3.635307	2	3.031722	2	5.939672	2	5.174672	2	3.795549	0.1	0.6029969	2	3.588917	1.75	4.442187	6.75	6.479669	2	4.020017	1.950549	1.735591	2	5.940155	0.75	3.189785	4.75	4.811642	2.914835	6.555271
05q3	5.5	6.245206	2	5.073417	2	6.280454	2.565217	5.775853	2	4.968503	2	2.593973	2	4.065242	2	3.841695	2	6.847439	2	4.952927	2	4.157813	0.1	0.373488	2	4.188783	2	4.628395	6.75	7.038366	2	4.752814	1.5	2.294635	2	6.467202	0.75	3.513909	4.592391	5.416966	3.423913	7.975523
05q4	5.5	5.86382	2.070652	4.17299	2.070652	5.428092	3.024457	5.337305	2.081522	4.594687	2.070652	2.331109	2.070652	3.715578	2.070652	3.771024	2.070652	6.615186	2.070652	5.149778	2.070652	4.319006	0.1	-0.4040401	2.070652	4.218319	2.160326	4.181232	6.994565	6.243894	2.070652	5.058642	1.5	2.69473	2.070652	6.681822	0.7961956	3.504111	4.5	5.028194	3.967391	7.724439
06q1	5.5	5.98018	2.316667	3.454126	2.316667	4.92887	3.505556	5.667139	2.330555	4.868155	2.316667	3.123482	2.316667	4.001837	2.316667	4.009874	2.316667	6.057927	2.316667	6.54212	2.316667	4.507347	0.1	0.6739781	2.316667	3.283635	2.291667	4.828184	7.25	6.666095	2.316667	5.936186	1.769444	2.991256	2.316667	7.418805	1.044444	3.741232	4.5	5.022371	4.427778	7.829498
06q2	5.662088	7.38967	2.543956	4.176239	2.543956	4.58606	4.038462	5.787926	2.56044	5.338095	2.543956	4.306591	2.543956	4.38379	2.543956	4.858348	2.543956	6.084225	2.543956	7.323449	2.543956	4.724234	0.1	1.249544	2.543956	4.082442	2.582417	5.027493	7.25	7.602215	2.543956	6.955006	2.027472	4.092278	2.543956	7.272078	1.293956	3.747554	4.5	5.46158	4.898352	8.112964
06q3	5.913043	7.387873	2.894022	4.085536	2.894022	3.738116	4.25	4.359146	2.907609	4.465414	2.894022	4.44456	2.894022	3.80871	2.894022	4.166283	2.894022	6.386998	2.894022	8.274772	2.894022	4.613085	0.3576087	1.899347	2.894022	3.706027	2.872283	5.17046	7.25	6.973438	2.894022	5.755184	2.317935	4.143192	2.894022	6.748314	1.546196	3.711765	4.660326	5.672503	5.25	6.966357
06q4	6.146739	6.479441	3.274457	3.875633	3.274457	3.702761	4.25	3.744576	3.30163	3.889654	3.274457	4.898199	3.274457	3.310335	3.274457	4.155848	3.274457	5.654296	3.274457	7.189429	3.274457	4.355518	0.4	1.509377	3.274457	3.16705	3.211957	5.360234	7.25	5.92511	3.274457	5.093825	2.69837	3.870193	3.274457	5.366573	1.798913	2.385418	4.894022	6.203523	5.25	4.755378
07q1	6.25	5.569452	3.55	4.163572	3.55	4.201233	4.25	4.578406	3.563889	4.505262	3.55	5.538568	3.55	3.03714	3.55	4.725605	3.55	5.366144	3.55	10.30094	3.55	4.130875	0.5516667	1.184324	3.55	4.132016	3.727778	3.133923	7.316667	5.686337	3.55	5.202465	3.108333	4.283116	3.55	5.087361	2.047222	1.879301	5.222222	6.457475	5.25	5.233074
07q2	6.25	4.999472	3.799451	4.442537	3.799451	3.565532	4.25	5.244825	3.815934	3.423086	3.799451	5.521126	3.799451	3.072938	3.799451	4.830827	3.799451	5.105016	3.799451	9.031571	3.799451	3.783451	0.75	0.795018	3.799451	4.406717	4.093407	2.035556	7.747253	5.02633	3.799451	5.345143	3.260989	4.072938	3.799451	4.99983	2.296703	2.525817	5.392857	6.129333	5.25	5.823235
07q3	6.396739	4.778035	4	4.408649	4	3.412511	4.475543	5.079239	4	3.227071	4	5.465197	4	3.277337	4	5.21192	4	5.212133	4	8.265452	4	3.748207	0.75	0.555406	4	3.872769	4.63587	2.100887	8.182065	4.396985	4	4.719719	3.55163	4.054212	4	4.858148	2.548913	2.677496	5.73913	4.961027	5.179348	5.631684
07q4	6.649457	6.396522	4	6.181486	4	5.432126	4.423913	5.293272	4	4.322306	4	5.55755	4	4.81203	4	6.177212	4	6.536942	4	7.820374	4	4.498083	0.75	1.588975	4	4.743192	5.05163	3.94676	8.25	6.382217	4	5.490365	3.918478	5.691351	4	7.211648	2.75	4.269531	5.679348	5.343201	4.524457	7.807984
08q1	6.975275	8.185469	4	6.262476	4	6.950806	3.903846	4.052445	4	4.96892	4	6.858391	4	5.643076	4	6.275521	4	7.454293	4	7.126347	4	5.680672	0.75	2.305312	4	4.959178	5.25	7.005797	8.25	6.221848	4	5.609789	4.112638	5.567433	4	7.570868	2.75	5.201587	5.351648	5.636026	3.217033	7.914725
08q2	7.25	8.377648	4	6.495028	4	8.679221	3.115385	4.794013	4	5.793321	4	7.057208	4	5.843026	4	5.725614	4	8.286969	4	6.582079	4	6.169787	0.75	2.296081	4	4.827927	5.45055	6.204072	8.25	6.894268	4	5.58364	4.25	6.14432	4	7.673048	2.75	5.299019	5.024725	6.868171	2.07967	8.175697
08q3	7.173913	8.807437	4.228261	6.482839	4.228261	9.282862	3	6.393325	4.241848	6.569073	4.228261	7.610732	4.228261	5.685349	4.228261	5.536837	4.228261	8.058516	4.228261	6.477688	4.228261	6.531176	0.75	3.012287	4.228261	5.811601	5.75	7.9223	7.953804	8.192595	4.228261	5.599585	4.535326	6.687757	4.228261	7.810096	2.75	5.440579	5	8.564258	2	9.399769
08q4	5.296196	ND	3.375	ND	3.375	ND	2.154891	ND	4.035326	ND	3.375	ND	3.375	ND	3.375	ND	3.375	ND	3.375	ND	3.375	ND	0.5532609	ND	3.375	ND	4.722826	ND	6.282609	ND	3.375	ND	3.559783	ND	3.375	ND	1.644022	ND	3.320652	6.476988	1.038043	3.242958

Return to Figure A1

^♣ This version is optimized for use by screen readers. Descriptions for all mathematical expressions are provided in LaTex format. A printable pdf version is available. Return to Text

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Last update: December 28, 2009