INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production was unchanged in January. Manufacturing output increased 0.1 percent, and utility output increased 0.2 percent, but production at mines decreased 1.8 percent. At 136.7 percent of its 1992 average, manufacturing production in January was 2.2 percent higher than it had been in January 1998. Overall capacity utilization in January slipped 0.3 percentage point, to 80.5 percent, 1-1/2 percentage points below its 1967-98 average.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
| Index, 1992=100 | Percent change
| 1998 1999 | 1998 1999 | Jan. 98 to
Industrial Production | Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. | Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. | Jan. 99
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| | |
Total index | 132.4 132.3 132.5 132.5 | .4 -.1 .2 .0 | 1.7
Previous estimates | 132.6 132.5 132.8 | .5 -.1 .2 |
| | |
Major market groups: | | |
Products, total | 124.9 124.5 124.7 124.6 | .6 -.3 .2 -.1 | 1.6
Consumer goods | 115.2 115.1 115.4 115.4 | .4 -.1 .3 .0 | -.5
Business equipment | 169.0 168.0 168.0 167.7 | 1.0 -.6 .0 -.1 | 7.3
Construction supplies | 128.4 129.1 130.3 130.3 | 1.2 .5 1.0 .0 | 3.8
Materials | 144.5 144.8 145.2 145.3 | .1 .2 .3 .1 | 1.9
| | |
Major industry groups: | | |
Manufacturing | 136.1 136.4 136.6 136.7 | .7 .2 .1 .1 | 2.2
Durable | 161.2 161.0 161.4 161.6 | 1.0 -.1 .2 .1 | 5.1
Nondurable | 110.9 111.6 111.6 111.6 | .3 .7 .0 -.1 | -1.3
Mining | 102.0 101.4 100.3 98.5 | -.4 -.5 -1.2 -1.8 | -8.5
Utilities | 116.5 111.4 114.1 114.3 | -3.1 -4.4 2.4 .2 | 4.2
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| | Capacity
| Percent of Capacity | Growth
| Average 1982 1988-89 1998 | 1998 1999 | Jan. 98 to
Capacity Utilization | 1967-98 Low High Jan. | Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. | Jan. 99
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| | |
Total industry | 82.1 71.1 85.4 83.0 | 81.3 80.9 80.8 80.5 | 4.9
Previous estimates | | 81.4 81.0 80.9 |
| | |
Manufacturing | 81.1 69.0 85.7 82.2 | 80.3 80.1 79.9 79.6 | 5.5
Advanced processing | 80.5 70.4 84.2 81.0 | 79.6 79.5 79.1 78.8 | 6.5
Primary processing | 82.4 66.2 88.9 85.2 | 82.4 82.3 82.4 82.1 | 2.8
Mining | 87.5 80.3 88.0 90.0 | 84.7 84.2 83.1 81.6 | .9
Utilities | 87.4 75.9 92.6 87.2 | 92.0 87.9 90.0 90.1 | .9
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Note: Estimates for January are preliminary. Estimates from October to December are revised.
Market Groups
The output of durable consumer goods, which increased 0.3 percent, was lifted by an increase in automotive products. In contrast, the production of nondurable consumer goods excluding energy fell 0.3 percent and was down 2-1/4 percent from its level a year ago, a drop reflecting, in part, softness for clothing and paper products. The output of consumer energy products, which has been volatile recently, rose noticeably again in January.
The production of business equipment edged down 0.1 percent. Declines in the output of industrial equipment and transit equipment more than offset a gain in information processing equipment. Some of the decrease in transit equipment reflects further reductions in commercial aircraft production, which peaked last fall after having climbed rapidly during the past few years. The output of construction supplies was flat, but at a high level, following strong gains in the fourth quarter. The production of business supplies increased 0.2 percent.
The production of materials inched up 0.1 percent after having risen modestly in the preceding three months. The production of durable goods materials increased 0.5 percent mainly because of strength in the production of semiconductors and computer parts. However, the output of basic metals fell 0.6 percent, continuing the weakness that had begun in early 1998. In addition, the output of consumer durable parts, which rose rapidly late last year, has somewhat eased recently. The production of nondurable materials also edged down 0.2 percent, a move mainly reflecting ongoing weakness in textiles and chemicals.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent, with a small gain in the production of durable goods and a slight pullback in the production of nondurable goods. Within durable goods industries, changes in production were mixed. Industries with large increases in production included lumber, furniture, and electrical machinery; industries showing cutbacks included primary metals, transportation equipment (notably civilian aircraft), and miscellaneous manufactures. The production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1 percent in January after having been flat in December. Losses in tobacco, apparel, and leather products more than offset gains in petroleum and food products. Mining production fell again pulled down by a sharp drop-off in coal production and the continued contraction in oil and gas extraction.
The factory operating rate dropped 0.3 percentage point to 79.6 percent--more than 2-1/2 percentage points below the level of January 1998. The utilization rates for advanced-processing and primary-processing industries slipped 0.3 percentage point. The utilization rate for mines fell 1.5 percentage points, to a level about 6 percentage points below its long-term average. Temperatures remained relatively warm, and the operating rate for utilities, at about 90 percent, was little changed.
The data in this release include preliminary estimates of capacity growth for 1999. The capacity estimates in next months release will incorporate a small change in the method used to interpolate the annual estimates of capacity growth to the monthly frequency. The current monthly capacity figures are computed under the assumption that capacity growth is constant from the beginning to the end of a year but that growth rates change abruptly between the last months of one year and the first months of the next. The new procedure, which allows capacity growth rates to change smoothly over time, will be incorporated in the data beginning with October 1998.
G.17 Release Tables:
