INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after increases in August and September that were revised upward. At 146.3 percent of its 1992 average, industrial production in October was 5.2 percent higher than in October 1999. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry decreased to 82.1 percent, just 0.1 percentage point above its 1967-99 average.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
| Index, 1992=100 | Percent change
| 2000 | 2000 | Oct. 99 to
Industrial Production | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | Oct. 00
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| | |
Total index | 145.1 145.9 146.5 146.3 | -.2 .5 .4 -.1 | 5.2
Previous estimates | 145.0 145.6 146.0 | -.2 .4 .2 |
| | |
Major market groups: | | |
Products, total | 131.8 132.0 132.4 132.3 | .1 .1 .3 -.1 | 3.0
Consumer goods | 118.8 119.1 119.7 119.2 | -.5 .3 .4 -.4 | .8
Business equipment | 188.7 190.2 191.9 192.5 | .8 .8 .9 .3 | 10.1
Construction supplies | 137.7 136.0 136.4 136.2 | .7 -1.3 .3 -.1 | .6
Materials | 168.1 170.1 171.0 170.6 | -.6 1.2 .5 -.2 | 8.8
| | |
Major industry groups: | | |
Manufacturing | 151.1 151.7 152.4 152.3 | .0 .4 .5 .0 | 5.6
Durable | 190.9 192.4 194.0 193.5 | .1 .8 .8 -.3 | 9.7
Nondurable | 113.1 113.1 113.0 113.3 | .0 -.1 .0 .2 | .3
Mining | 102.7 102.9 101.8 102.5 | -.1 .1 -1.0 .7 | 3.3
Utilities | 115.2 118.6 119.7 117.4 | -3.0 3.0 .9 -1.9 | 1.9
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| | Capacity
| Percent of Capacity | Growth
| Average 1982 1988-89 1999 | 2000 | Oct. 99 to
Capacity Utilization | 1967-99 Low High Oct. | July Aug. Sept. Oct. | Oct. 00
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| | |
Total industry | 82.0 71.1 85.4 81.0 | 82.2 82.4 82.5 82.1 | 3.7
Previous estimates | | 82.1 82.2 82.2 |
| | |
Manufacturing | 81.1 69.0 85.7 80.2 | 81.3 81.4 81.5 81.2 | 4.2
Advanced processing | 80.5 70.4 84.2 79.1 | 81.1 81.5 81.6 81.3 | 5.5
Primary processing | 82.4 66.2 88.9 83.4 | 82.4 81.8 81.9 81.7 | 1.2
Mining | 87.3 80.3 88.0 82.6 | 86.3 86.5 85.8 86.5 | -1.4
Utilities | 87.5 75.9 92.6 89.9 | 89.1 91.7 92.4 90.6 | 1.2
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Note: Estimates for October are preliminary. Estimates from July to September are revised.
Market Groups
The output of consumer goods fell 0.4 percent in October, retracing its September rise. The production of durable consumer goods fell 2.5 percent, in large part because of a drop in the output of automotive products, particularly auto and light truck assemblies. Production also declined across many other categories of consumer durables; the largest of these other decreases was in the production of household appliances. By contrast, nondurable consumer goods rose 0.2 percent, continuing a pattern of small gains posted over the past several months. Declines in the output of clothing and consumer energy products were more than offset by increases in the production of food and paper products. As a result of unusually warm weather in October, residential sales of electricity dropped; in addition, the production of consumer fuel, including gasoline, decreased.
The production of business equipment moved up 0.3 percent, its smallest increase so far this year. The output of office and computing equipment posted another strong gain, but it was less than the average monthly gain for the first three quarters of the year. The production of industrial equipment, which had fallen more than 1 percent in September, dropped 0.3 percent further in October. The output of transit equipment decreased 4 percent, a sharp drop largely reflecting declines in motor vehicles. Within the "other equipment" category, the output of farm machinery turned up after having fallen substantially in the third quarter.
The production of construction supplies, which had eased in the third quarter, was little changed. The index for business supplies declined 0.3 percent, a dropoff mainly reflecting lower output of commercial energy products. Among materials, the production of durable goods materials slipped 0.2 percent, the first decline in this group in more than a year. The output of consumer parts dropped 4.2 percent, with sizable declines in steel and original equipment motor vehicle parts. The production of equipment parts recorded another large increase; as in previous months, the production of semiconductors posted the strongest gains in this category. The output of nondurable goods materials, which stayed flat for the second consecutive month, was nearly 3 percent below its level of twelve months earlier. The index for energy materials decreased 0.4 percent; cutbacks at utilities more than accounted for the loss.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output was unchanged following gains of around 1/2 percent in August and September; excluding motor vehicles and parts, however, the gain in October was 0.5 percent. The output of durables decreased, led by losses in motor vehicles and parts, primary metals (particularly iron and steel), and furniture and fixtures. Smaller cutbacks were recorded in lumber and products, fabricated metal products, instruments, and miscellaneous manufacturing goods. Offsetting these declines were further gains in the production of computer and office equipment and semiconductors. After several months of weakness, the production of nondurable goods edged up 0.2 percent, a move buoyed by a 1.0 percent gain in food and a 0.6 percent gain in printing and publishing. Production declined in the apparel, textile mill products, and petroleum products industries.
The overall factory operating rate dropped 0.3 percentage point, to 81.2 percent; capacity utilization at primary-processing industries fell 0.2 percentage point, to 81.7 percent, while utilization at advanced-processing industries fell to 81.3 percent.
The output at utilities fell back almost 2 percent in October; mine production, which was boosted by increases in coal mining and in oil and gas well drilling, increased 0.7 percent.
Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
On December 5, the Federal Reserve Board will publish revisions to the index of
industrial production (IP), to the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization, and to the
index of industrial use of electric power. The updated measures will reflect both the
incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions
and, for some series, the introduction of improved compilation methods. The revision will also
include a refinement of the method used to aggregate the individual series in the production and
capacity indexes. The new source data are for recent years, primarily 1997 through 1999, and
the modified methods will affect data from 1992 onward.
This statistical release, the G.17, will be redesigned with the publication of the revision.
Special aggregates will be added; although some detailed industry data will no longer be listed in
the regular release, they will be available on the Federal Reserve Board's public web site. A
template of the redesigned tables will be available on the Board's web site on November 21
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17).
The updating of source data for IP will include annual data from the following reports of
the Bureau of the Census: the 1997 Census of Manufactures, the 1998 Annual Survey of
Manufactures, and selected editions of its 1998 and 1999 Current Industrial Reports. Annual
data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels)
for 1998 and 1999 will also be introduced. The updating will include revisions to the monthly
indicator for each industry (either physical product data, production-worker hours, or electric
power usage) and to seasonal factors.
Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate preliminary data from the
1999 Survey of Plant Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along
with other new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy,
and other organizations. The statistics on the industrial use of electric power will incorporate
additional information received from utilities for the past few years and will include some data
from the 1997 Census of Manufactures and 1998 Annual Survey of Manufactures.
Aggregate IP indexes have been built as annually weighted chain-type indexes, beginning
with data for 1977. Currently, the weights are changed at the middle of every year; with the
coming revision, the weights will change every month, rather than once a year, beginning with
data for 1992.
Once the revision is published, it will be made available on the Board's web site. The
revised data will also be available through the web site of the Department of Commerce. Further
information on these revisions is available from the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone
202-452-3197).
G.17 Release Tables:
G.17: Release |Release dates |About |ASCII |PDF (199 KB) |Historical data
