INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

[2004 Revision Notice Below]

Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in September after having edged down 0.1 percent in August. The production index was revised up slightly in June and July, but it is now estimated to have been slightly lower in August than previously reported. Manufacturing output declined 0.3 percent in September, and mining output dropped 2.3 percent. The recent spate of hurricanes appears to have had a noticeable restraining effect on production last month. In particular, output dropped sharply in the oil and gas extraction, chemical materials, and petroleum refining industries; combined, the September decreases for these industries reduced the rate of change in total industrial production about 0.3 percentage point. However, the exact magnitude of the effect of the hurricanes on these industries and on industrial production more broadly is difficult to determine. Utilities output surged 5.4 percent in September, in part because of a swing to relatively warm temperatures after unseasonably cool weather in August. For the third quarter as a whole, total industrial production increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, and manufacturing output rose at a 4.4 percent rate. Capacity utilization for total industry was unchanged in September, at 77.2 percent, a rate 2.3 percentage points above its year-earlier level but still 3.9 percentage points below its 1972-2003 average.

r  Revised.  p  Preliminary.

       The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the

industrial sector, which the Federal Reserve defines as manufacturing, mining, and electric and

gas utilities.  Manufacturing comprises those industries included in the North American Industry

Classification System, or NAICS, manufacturing plus the logging and newspaper, periodical,

book and directory publishing industries that have traditionally been considered manufacturing and included

in the industrial sector.

Market Groups

The output of consumer goods rose 0.3 percent in September and increased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the third quarter. Consumer energy products rose, as an increase in electricity sales more than offset a reduction in gasoline refining. The output of consumer non-energy nondurables edged up; gains for foods and tobacco and for clothing partly reversed their declines earlier in the quarter. In contrast, the production of chemical products and paper products moved down in September after having increased smartly in July and August. The production of consumer durables fell 0.3 percent in September as output in all major categories slipped. Among these categories, the index for automotive products edged down after a sizable gain in August, and the index for home electronics continued to move down.

The index for business equipment increased 0.3 percent in September after having declined 1.2 percent in August. For the third quarter as a whole, however, output in this category rose at an annual rate of 13.4 percent. In September, the production indexes for transit equipment, information processing equipment, and industrial and other equipment all edged up. The third-quarter gain in the output of information processing equipment, at 24.4 percent (annual rate), was the largest quarterly increase in this category since the second quarter of 2000.

The production of defense and space equipment rose 0.6 percent in September and increased at an annual rate of 12.6 percent in the third quarter. The output of business supplies moved up 0.6 percent in September, and the output of construction supplies decreased 0.4 percent. The production of materials edged down 0.1 percent; increases in equipment parts and in energy materials were offset by declines elsewhere.

Industry Groups

The 0.3 percent drop in manufacturing output in September reflected an unchanged level of production for durables, a 0.5 percent decline in the production of nondurables, and a 0.4 percent drop in non-NAICS manufacturing (logging and publishing). In the third quarter, the output of durable goods increased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent, and nondurable output rose a more modest 1.4 percent. Among durables, the production of computers and electronic products gained 0.7 percent in September, while machinery output advanced 0.3 percent. But the output of primary metals; fabricated metal products; and electrical equipment, appliances, and components was little changed, while the output of other major industries fell. Among nondurables, the most significant declines were in petroleum refining and the production of chemicals. Other nondurable industries that registered reductions in output last month included textile and product mills, printing and support, and plastics and rubber products. The overall factory operating rate decreased 0.3 percentage point in September, to 76.3 percent, a rate 2.7 percentage points above its year-earlier level.

The spurt in output at utilities in September was entirely the result of a jump of 6.7 percent for electric utilities; the output at natural gas utilities contracted 0.8 percent for a second consecutive month. The drop in mining output was concentrated in the oil and gas extraction industry and reflects production that was shut in because of the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

Capacity utilization for industries in the crude stage of processing decreased 1.9 percentage points, to 83.0 percent, in September. The operating rate for industries in the primary and semifinished stages increased 0.3 percentage point, to 79.2 percent, and the utilization rate for finished goods producers was unchanged at 74.1 percent.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue, in late 2004, an annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP), the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization, and the data on industrial use of electric power; the date of the revision is subject to the availability of the comprehensive source data from the Census Bureau's 2002 Economic Census. In addition to these data, the revised IP indexes will incorporate data from selected editions of the Census Bureau's 2002 and 2003 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2002 and 2003 will also be introduced. The updating will also include revisions to the monthly indicator for each industry (either physical product data, production-worker hours, or electric power usage) and revisions to seasonal factors.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate preliminary data from the Census Bureau's 2003 Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. The statistics on the industrial use of electric power will incorporate additional information received from utilities for the past few years and will include available data from the 2002 Economic Census.

Once the revision is published, it will be made available on the Board's web site at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data will also be available through the web site of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197).

G.17 Release Tables:

Ascii	Screen reader	Summary: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart		Chart 1: Industrial Production, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization
Chart		Chart 2: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart		Chart 3: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, High Technology Industries
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 1:Industrial Production: Market and Industry Groups (percent change)
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 2:Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail (percent change)
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 3: Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 4: Industrial Production Indexes: Market and Industry Group Summary
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 5: Industrial Production Indexes: Special Aggregates
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 6: Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 7: Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 8: Industrial Capacity: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities (percent change)
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 9: Industrial Production: Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 10: Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 11: Electric Power Use: Manufacturing and Mining
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 12: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 13: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 14: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 15: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing excluding Selected High-Technology Industries

Release dates | Historical data | Documentation
Current Monthly Release   Other formats: ASCII | PDF (144 KB)
Supplemental Monthly Release   Other formats: ASCII | PDF (144 KB)
Annual Revision Release   Other formats: ASCII | PDF (150 KB)

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