INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

[2007 Revision Notice Below]

Industrial production was unchanged in December; the change in the index over the previous three months was little revised, with offsetting revisions to September and October. For the fourth quarter, output fell 1.0 percent (annual rate), the first quarterly decrease since the fourth quarter of 2006. At 114.0 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production in December was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Output in the manufacturing sector was unchanged in December. The output of utilities decreased 0.2�percent in December as a result of a decline at gas utilities; the output at mines edged up 0.1�percent after an increase of 1.0 percent in November. Capacity utilization for total industry posted a small decrease in December, to 81.4 percent, a rate slightly below its year-earlier level but 0.4 percentage point above its 1972-2006 average.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted

Industrial production	2002=100				Percent change
	2007				2007				Dec. '06 to Dec. '07
	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.
Total index	114.2	113.7	114.0	114.0	.1	-.5	.3	.0	1.5
Previous estimates	114.4	113.6	113.9		.3	-.7	.3
Major market groups
Final Products	115.2	114.3	114.6	114.9	.2	-.8	.3	.3	1.2
Consumer goods	109.5	108.6	108.7	108.8	.0	-.8	.1	.1	.9
Business equipment	134.2	133.3	134.1	135.3	.8	-.7	.7	.8	2.4
Nonindustrial supplies	111.5	111.0	110.8	110.5	.2	-.4	-.2	-.3	.3
Construction	109.3	108.6	108.3	107.3	-.2	-.7	-.2	-.9	-2.2
Materials	114.3	114.1	114.6	114.3	.0	-.2	.5	-.3	2.3
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below)	116.1	115.4	115.7	115.7	.2	-.6	.3	.0	1.1
Previous estimates	116.1	115.3	115.8		.2	-.6	.4
Mining	101.7	101.6	102.6	102.7	1.2	.0	1.0	.1	.2
Utilities	109.7	109.8	109.8	109.6	-1.6	.0	.0	-.2	6.9

Market Groups

The output of consumer goods edged up 0.1 percent in December, as nondurables advanced slightly but durables decreased. Among durable consumer goods, the production index for automotive products moved up 0.2 percent after having risen 1.4 percent in November. Elsewhere the production index for home electronics edged down 0.2 percent, and the production index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting moved down 1.6 percent with widespread decreases among its components. After having decreased for two consecutive months, the production of nondurable non-energy consumer goods advanced 0.5 percent in December with gains in foods and tobacco, paper, and clothing, and a small loss in chemical products. After having increased a revised 1.8 percent in November, the index for consumer energy goods fell 1.0 percent in December.

The index for business equipment moved up 0.8 percent in December and advanced at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter. In December, the output of transit equipment rose 2.3 percent; the gain was concentrated in commercial aircraft. After having risen 2.1 percent in November, the index for information processing equipment increased 0.5 percent in December; despite moderate gains in most components, December's rise in this index was held down by a drop in the output of communications equipment. The index for industrial and other equipment moved up 0.4 percent; output for this sector fell at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

The output of defense and space equipment advanced 0.1 percent in December and was unchanged from its year-earlier level.

In December, the index for construction supplies fell 0.9 percent, its sixth consecutive monthly decline; the index was 2.2 percent below its year-earlier level and declined at an annual rate of 5.4 percent for the fourth quarter as a whole. The index for business supplies was unchanged in December.

The production of materials decreased 0.3 percent in December, which partially reversed its November increase. Among non-energy materials, the index for durable materials decreased 0.4�percent in December. A gain in equipment parts was outweighed by decreases in consumer parts and other durable materials; losses were widespread within these categories. The output of nondurable materials moved down 0.4 percent, with declines in all of its major subcategories.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output was unchanged in December after having increased 0.3 percent in November; manufacturing fell at an annual rate of 1.9 percent for the fourth quarter as a whole. The factory operating rate decreased 0.1 percentage point, to 79.7 percent, a level 0.1 percentage point below its 1972-2006 average. The production of durable goods was unchanged in December and declined at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The output of wood products increased 1.1 percent in December after having declined for five consecutive months. Machinery, computer and electronic products, and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment all posted gains, whereas nonmetallic mineral products and primary metal production posted declines of 2.1 percent and 1.0 percent respectively. The production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1 percent after a gain of similar size in November. Gains in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products and for apparel and leather in December were more than offset by reductions in most other categories. The output of non-NAICS industries (newspaper publishing and logging) edged up 0.1�percent.

The output of mines increased 0.1�percent, and the capacity utilization rate for mining was unchanged at 92.1 percent, a rate 4.7 percentage points above its long-run average. The index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent in December. The output of natural gas utilities fell 3.1 percent, and the output of electric utilities edged up 0.3 percent. The operating rate at utilities decreased 0.3 percentage point, to 86.2 percent, a level 0.5 percentage point below its 1972-2006 average.

Capacity utilization at industries grouped by stage of processing changed as follows: For the crude stage, utilization decreased 0.3 percentage point, to 90.3 percent, a rate 3.8 percentage points above its 1972-2006 average. For the primary and semifinished stages, utilization decreased 0.4 percentage point, to 81.7 percent, a rate 0.5 percentage point below its long-run average. For the finished stage, utilization moved up 0.3 percentage point, to 78.3�percent, a rate 0.5 percentage point above its long-run average.

Notice

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue an annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization around the end of March 2008. The revised IP indexes will incorporate data from the 2006 Annual Surveys of Manufactures and data from selected editions of the 2006 Current Industrial Reports, all from the U.S. Census Bureau. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2006 will also be incorporated. The updating will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry as well as changes in the estimation methods for some series. Any changes to methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

After the publication of the revision, later monthly releases will include new or revised indexes for a six-month reporting window: one month of new data and revisions to the previous five months of data. The new longer reporting window will allow the incorporation of additional lagging data before an annual revision. The longer reporting window will cause the latest month of data shown for a few indexes to be as many as five months earlier than the latest value for aggregate industrial production; data for detailed production indexes are not shown in the supplement to the G.17 until either the underlying data are available or the reporting window is closed. Currently, the data issued for only one or two of the published indexes would be affected by this change.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data from the Census Bureau's 2006 Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations.

Once the revision is published, it will be available on the Board's website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data will also be available through the website of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions can be obtained from the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone number 202-452-3197).

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

G.17 Release Tables:

Ascii	Screen reader	Summary: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart		Chart 1: Industrial Production, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization
Chart		Chart 2: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Chart		Chart 3: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, High Technology Industries
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 1: Industrial Production: Market and Industry Groups (percent change)
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 2: Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail (percent change)
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 3: Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 4: Industrial Production Indexes: Market and Industry Group Summary
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 5: Industrial Production Indexes: Special Aggregates
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 6: Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 7: Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 8: Industrial Capacity: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities (percent change)
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 9: Industrial Production: Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 10: Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 11: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 12: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 13: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Ascii	Screen reader	Table 14: Historical Statistics for IP, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing excluding Selected High-Technology Industries