Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test 2014: Supervisory Stress Test Methodology and Results - Accessible Version
Figure 1. Historical and stressed tier 1 common ratio
Quarter | Percent |
---|---|
Actual, Q1 2009 | 5.5 |
Actual, Q1 2010 | 8.5 |
Actual, Q1 2011 | 10.0 |
Actual, Q1 2012 | 10.9 |
Actual, Q1 2013 | 10.9 |
Actual, Q3 2013 | 11.4 |
Stressed, Q4 2015 | 7.8 |
Note: Aggregate capital ratios for 29 of the participating BHCs.
Source: FR Y-9C and supervisory estimates under the severely adverse scenario. The aggregate tier 1 common ratio does not include Santander Holdings USA, which did not file the FR Y-9C until 2012. Santander's exclusion decreased the aggregate ratio about 1 to 2 basis points.
Figure 2. Real GDP growth rate, Q1 2009-Q4 2016
Quarter | Real GDP growth | Severely adverse scenario | Adverse scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Q1 2009 | -5.4 | ND | ND |
Q2 2009 | -0.4 | ND | ND |
Q3 2009 | 1.3 | ND | ND |
Q4 2009 | 3.9 | ND | ND |
Q1 2010 | 1.6 | ND | ND |
Q2 2010 | 3.9 | ND | ND |
Q3 2010 | 2.8 | ND | ND |
Q4 2010 | 2.8 | ND | ND |
Q1 2011 | -1.3 | ND | ND |
Q2 2011 | 3.2 | ND | ND |
Q3 2011 | 1.4 | ND | ND |
Q4 2011 | 4.9 | ND | ND |
Q1 2012 | 3.7 | ND | ND |
Q2 2012 | 1.2 | ND | ND |
Q3 2012 | 2.8 | ND | ND |
Q4 2012 | 0.1 | ND | ND |
Q1 2013 | 1.1 | ND | ND |
Q2 2013 | 2.5 | ND | ND |
Q3 2013 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Q4 2013 | ND | -3.9 | -1.0 |
Q1 2014 | ND | -6.1 | -2.1 |
Q2 2014 | ND | -3.2 | -0.6 |
Q3 2014 | ND | -4.0 | -1.0 |
Q4 2014 | ND | -1.5 | 0.3 |
Q1 2015 | ND | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Q2 2015 | ND | 1.1 | 1.7 |
Q3 2015 | ND | 3.0 | 2.6 |
Q4 2015 | ND | 3.0 | 2.6 |
Q1 2016 | ND | 3.9 | 3.0 |
Q2 2016 | ND | 3.9 | 3.0 |
Q3 2016 | ND | 3.9 | 3.0 |
Q4 2016 | ND | 3.9 | 3.0 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.
Figure 3. Unemployment rate, Q1 2009-Q4 2016
Quarter | Unemployment rate | Severely adverse scenario | Adverse scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Q1 2009 | 8.3 | ND | ND |
Q2 2009 | 9.3 | ND | ND |
Q3 2009 | 9.6 | ND | ND |
Q4 2009 | 9.9 | ND | ND |
Q1 2010 | 9.8 | ND | ND |
Q2 2010 | 9.6 | ND | ND |
Q3 2010 | 9.5 | ND | ND |
Q4 2010 | 9.5 | ND | ND |
Q1 2011 | 9.0 | ND | ND |
Q2 2011 | 9.0 | ND | ND |
Q3 2011 | 9.0 | ND | ND |
Q4 2011 | 8.7 | ND | ND |
Q1 2012 | 8.3 | ND | ND |
Q2 2012 | 8.2 | ND | ND |
Q3 2012 | 8.0 | ND | ND |
Q4 2012 | 7.8 | ND | ND |
Q1 2013 | 7.7 | ND | ND |
Q2 2013 | 7.6 | ND | ND |
Q3 2013 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
Q4 2013 | ND | 8.1 | 7.7 |
Q1 2014 | ND | 9.2 | 8.3 |
Q2 2014 | ND | 9.9 | 8.6 |
Q3 2014 | ND | 10.7 | 9.0 |
Q4 2014 | ND | 11.1 | 9.2 |
Q1 2015 | ND | 11.2 | 9.2 |
Q2 2015 | ND | 11.3 | 9.3 |
Q3 2015 | ND | 11.2 | 9.2 |
Q4 2015 | ND | 11.1 | 9.2 |
Q1 2016 | ND | 10.9 | 9.1 |
Q2 2016 | ND | 10.8 | 9.0 |
Q3 2016 | ND | 10.6 | 8.9 |
Q4 2016 | ND | 10.4 | 8.8 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.
Figure 4. Dow Jones Stock Market Index, end of quarter, Q1 2009-Q4 2016
Quarter | Dow Jones Stock Market Index | Severely adverse scenario | Adverse scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Q1 2009 | 8044.2 | ND | ND |
Q2 2009 | 9342.8 | ND | ND |
Q3 2009 | 10812.8 | ND | ND |
Q4 2009 | 11385.1 | ND | ND |
Q1 2010 | 12032.5 | ND | ND |
Q2 2010 | 10645.8 | ND | ND |
Q3 2010 | 11814.0 | ND | ND |
Q4 2010 | 13131.5 | ND | ND |
Q1 2011 | 13908.5 | ND | ND |
Q2 2011 | 13843.5 | ND | ND |
Q3 2011 | 11676.5 | ND | ND |
Q4 2011 | 13019.3 | ND | ND |
Q1 2012 | 14627.5 | ND | ND |
Q2 2012 | 14100.2 | ND | ND |
Q3 2012 | 14894.7 | ND | ND |
Q4 2012 | 14834.9 | ND | ND |
Q1 2013 | 16396.2 | ND | ND |
Q2 2013 | 16771.3 | ND | ND |
Q3 2013 | 17718.3 | 17718.3 | 17718.3 |
Q4 2013 | ND | 13016.5 | 15605.5 |
Q1 2014 | ND | 11402.6 | 14216.2 |
Q2 2014 | ND | 9769.1 | 12815.7 |
Q3 2014 | ND | 8943.3 | 11402.7 |
Q4 2014 | ND | 9616.9 | 12099.4 |
Q1 2015 | ND | 10314.4 | 12786.4 |
Q2 2015 | ND | 11061.2 | 13475.9 |
Q3 2015 | ND | 11987.2 | 14249.3 |
Q4 2015 | ND | 12775.4 | 14916.7 |
Q1 2016 | ND | 13434.8 | 15490.6 |
Q2 2016 | ND | 13927.1 | 15952.9 |
Q3 2016 | ND | 14769.2 | 16601.7 |
Q4 2016 | ND | 15436.8 | 17139.0 |
Source: Dow Jones and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.
Figure 5. National House Price Index, Q1 2009-Q4 2016
Quarter | National House Price Index | Severely adverse scenario | Adverse scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Q1 2009 | 144.3 | ND | ND |
Q2 2009 | 142.3 | ND | ND |
Q3 2009 | 143.8 | ND | ND |
Q4 2009 | 144.6 | ND | ND |
Q1 2010 | 145.3 | ND | ND |
Q2 2010 | 145.3 | ND | ND |
Q3 2010 | 142.3 | ND | ND |
Q4 2010 | 140.2 | ND | ND |
Q1 2011 | 138.9 | ND | ND |
Q2 2011 | 137.5 | ND | ND |
Q3 2011 | 137.2 | ND | ND |
Q4 2011 | 136.3 | ND | ND |
Q1 2012 | 138.5 | ND | ND |
Q2 2012 | 141.4 | ND | ND |
Q3 2012 | 143.9 | ND | ND |
Q4 2012 | 146.8 | ND | ND |
Q1 2013 | 152.6 | ND | ND |
Q2 2013 | 157.8 | ND | ND |
Q3 2013 | 158.8 | 158.8 | 158.8 |
Q4 2013 | ND | 156.4 | 157.6 |
Q1 2014 | ND | 151.3 | 155.0 |
Q2 2014 | ND | 145.4 | 152.0 |
Q3 2014 | ND | 139.1 | 148.7 |
Q4 2014 | ND | 133.2 | 145.5 |
Q1 2015 | ND | 127.7 | 142.5 |
Q2 2015 | ND | 123.0 | 139.9 |
Q3 2015 | ND | 120.3 | 138.4 |
Q4 2015 | ND | 118.5 | 137.3 |
Q1 2016 | ND | 118.0 | 137.1 |
Q2 2016 | ND | 118.5 | 137.3 |
Q3 2016 | ND | 119.5 | 137.9 |
Q4 2016 | ND | 120.8 | 138.7 |
Source: CoreLogic (seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve) and Federal Reserve assumptions in the supervisory scenarios.
Figure 6. Real GDP growth in four country/country block areas in the severely adverse scenario, Q1 2009-16
Quarter | Euro Area | Japan | U.K. | Developing Asia |
---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 2009 | -10.9 | -15.0 | -9.5 | 3.4 |
Q2 2009 | -1.1 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 15.9 |
Q3 2009 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 12.8 |
Q4 2009 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 8.4 |
Q1 2010 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 9.2 |
Q2 2010 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 9.3 |
Q3 2010 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 8.7 |
Q4 2010 | 2.1 | -1.3 | -0.8 | 8.3 |
Q1 2011 | 3.1 | -7.6 | 1.9 | 9.4 |
Q2 2011 | 0.3 | -3.4 | 0.4 | 6.8 |
Q3 2011 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 2.4 | 7.2 |
Q4 2011 | -0.8 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 5.9 |
Q1 2012 | -0.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 |
Q2 2012 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.8 | 6.5 |
Q3 2012 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 2.5 | 6.6 |
Q4 2012 | -2.0 | 1.1 | -1.2 | 6.8 |
Q1 2013 | -0.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 5.5 |
Q2 2013 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 6.3 |
Q3 2013 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 6.5 |
Severely adverse scenario | ||||
Q4 2013 | -8.3 | -8.0 | -3.2 | -2.8 |
Q1 2014 | -7.0 | -10.8 | -3.6 | 1.6 |
Q2 2014 | -4.5 | -9.1 | -2.6 | 4.9 |
Q3 2014 | -2.5 | -7.1 | -1.6 | 6.4 |
Q4 2014 | -0.9 | -5.1 | -0.6 | 6.8 |
Q1 2015 | 0.4 | -3.2 | 0.4 | 7.0 |
Q2 2015 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 7.0 |
Q3 2015 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
Q4 2015 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 7.0 |
Q1 2016 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 7.1 |
Q2 2016 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 7.2 |
Q3 2016 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 7.3 |
Q4 2016 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 7.4 |
Note: 3Q 2013 data based on Federal Reserve calculations using available data as of October 25, 2013.
Source: Federal Reserve calculations based on official sector sources and Federal Reserve assumptions in the severely adverse scenario.
Figure 7. Real GDP growth in four country/country block areas in the adverse scenario, Q1 2009-16
Quarter | Euro Area | Japan | U.K. | Developing Asia |
---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 2009 | -10.9 | -15.0 | -9.5 | 3.4 |
Q2 2009 | -1.1 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 15.9 |
Q3 2009 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 12.8 |
Q4 2009 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 8.4 |
Q1 2010 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 9.2 |
Q2 2010 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 9.3 |
Q3 2010 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 8.7 |
Q4 2010 | 2.1 | -1.3 | -0.8 | 8.3 |
Q1 2011 | 3.1 | -7.6 | 1.9 | 9.4 |
Q2 2011 | 0.3 | -3.4 | 0.4 | 6.8 |
Q3 2011 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 2.4 | 7.2 |
Q4 2011 | -0.8 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 5.9 |
Q1 2012 | -0.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 |
Q2 2012 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.8 | 6.5 |
Q3 2012 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 2.5 | 6.6 |
Q4 2012 | -2.0 | 1.1 | -1.2 | 6.8 |
Q1 2013 | -0.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 5.5 |
Q2 2013 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 6.3 |
Q3 2013 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 6.5 |
Adverse scenario | ||||
Q4 2013 | -4.2 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 1.4 |
Q1 2014 | -3.4 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 3.8 |
Q2 2014 | -2.0 | -4.3 | -0.5 | 5.6 |
Q3 2014 | -0.8 | -3.3 | 0.1 | 6.4 |
Q4 2014 | 0.1 | -2.2 | 0.6 | 6.7 |
Q1 2015 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 1.1 | 6.8 |
Q2 2015 | 1.4 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 6.8 |
Q3 2015 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 6.8 |
Q4 2015 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 6.8 |
Q1 2016 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 6.9 |
Q2 2016 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 6.9 |
Q3 2016 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 7.0 |
Q4 2016 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 7.1 |
Note: 3Q 2013 data based on Federal Reserve calculations using available data as of October 25, 2013.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve assumptions in the adverse scenario.
Figure 8. Projecting net income and regulatory capital
A flowchart with five steps, leading from one to the next.
- Net interest income plus noninterest income, minus noninterest expense, equals pre-provision net revenue (PPNR). (Note: PPNR includes income from mortgage servicing rights and losses from operational-risk events, mortgage put-back losses, and OREO costs.)
- PPNR plus other revenue, minus provisions, minus AFS/HTM securities losses, minus HFS/FVO loan losses, minus trading and counterparty losses, equals pre-tax net income. (Note: Change in the allowance for loan and lease losses, plus net charge-offs, equals provisions.)
- Pre-tax net income minus taxes, plus extraordinary items net of taxes, equals after-tax net income.
- After-tax net income minus net distributions to common and preferred shareholders and other net reductions to shareholder's equity from DFAST assumptions, equals change in equity capital.
- Change in equity capital minus deductions from regulatory capital, plus other additions to regulatory capital (including accumulated other comprehensive income, when applicable), equals change in regulatory capital.
Box 1. Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income in Regulatory Capital: Figure A. Aggregate OCI over the planning horizon in the severely adverse and adverse scenarios
Billions of dollars | ||
---|---|---|
Severely adverse | Adverse | |
Aggregate OCI | -24 | -103 |
Box 2. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and RWA Projections: Figure A. Total assets and loans, by scenario
Total Assets - Severely Adverse | Total Assets - Adverse | Total loans - Severely Adverse | Total loans - Adverse | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 2013 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 5.42 | 5.42 |
Q4 2013 | 13.65 | 13.65 | 5.44 | 5.44 |
Q1 2014 | 13.74 | 13.78 | 5.49 | 5.49 |
Q2 2014 | 13.76 | 13.88 | 5.49 | 5.50 |
Q3 2014 | 13.80 | 13.98 | 5.49 | 5.52 |
Q4 2014 | 13.83 | 14.10 | 5.51 | 5.55 |
Q1 2015 | 13.87 | 14.20 | 5.49 | 5.55 |
Q2 2015 | 13.94 | 14.32 | 5.48 | 5.56 |
Q3 2015 | 14.00 | 14.44 | 5.47 | 5.57 |
Q4 2015 | 14.09 | 14.58 | 5.47 | 5.58 |
Figure 9. Minimum tier 1 common ratio in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 6.29 |
American Express | 12.11 |
Bank of America | 5.92 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 13.05 |
BB&T | 8.36 |
BBVA Compass | 8.53 |
BMO | 7.61 |
Capital One | 7.76 |
Citigroup | 7.16 |
Comerica | 8.59 |
Discover | 13.23 |
Fifth Third | 8.43 |
Goldman Sachs | 6.93 |
HSBC | 6.60 |
Huntington | 7.37 |
JPMorgan Chase | 6.29 |
KeyCorp | 9.16 |
M&T | 6.16 |
Morgan Stanley | 6.08 |
Northern Trust | 11.68 |
PNC | 8.99 |
RBS Citizens | 10.66 |
Regions | 8.90 |
Santander | 7.27 |
State Street | 13.28 |
SunTrust | 8.78 |
U.S. Bancorp | 8.16 |
UnionBanCal | 8.15 |
Wells Fargo | 8.23 |
Zions | 3.57 |
Median = 8.2%
Figure 10. Change from Q3 2013 to minimum tier 1 common ratio in the severely adverse scenario
Percent | ||
---|---|---|
Bank Holding Company | Change from Q3 2013 to minimum | Minimum ratio |
Ally | 1.6 | 6.3 |
American Express | 0.7 | 12.1 |
Bank of America | 5.2 | 5.9 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 1.1 | 13.1 |
BB&T | 1.0 | 8.4 |
BBVA Compass | 3.1 | 8.5 |
BMO | 3.2 | 7.6 |
Capital One | 5.0 | 7.8 |
Citigroup | 5.5 | 7.2 |
Comerica | 2.1 | 8.6 |
Discover | 1.5 | 13.2 |
Fifth Third | 1.5 | 8.4 |
Goldman Sachs | 7.2 | 6.9 |
HSBC | 8.1 | 6.6 |
Huntington | 3.5 | 7.4 |
JPMorgan Chase | 4.2 | 6.3 |
KeyCorp | 2.0 | 9.2 |
M&T | 2.9 | 6.2 |
Morgan Stanley | 6.5 | 6.1 |
Northern Trust | 1.4 | 11.7 |
PNC | 1.3 | 9.0 |
RBS Citizens | 3.3 | 10.7 |
Regions | 2.1 | 8.9 |
Santander | 6.4 | 7.3 |
State Street | 2.2 | 13.3 |
SunTrust | 1.2 | 8.8 |
U.S. Bancorp | 1.1 | 8.2 |
UnionBanCal | 3.0 | 8.1 |
Wells Fargo | 2.4 | 8.2 |
Zions | 6.9 | 3.6 |
Figure 11. Projected losses in the severely adverse scenario
Billions of dollars | |
---|---|
First-lien mortgages, domestic | 63 |
Trading and counterparty losses | 98 |
Credit cards | 93 |
Commercial and industrial loans | 62 |
Securities losses (AFS/HTM) | 7 |
Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic | 43 |
Commercial real estate, domestic | 49 |
Other consumer loans | 33 |
Other loans | 23 |
Other losses | 29 |
Figure 12. Total loan loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 5.00 |
American Express | 10.67 |
Bank of America | 5.78 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 1.64 |
BB&T | 4.46 |
BBVA Compass | 5.22 |
BMO | 6.08 |
Capital One | 11.83 |
Citigroup | 8.41 |
Comerica | 4.65 |
Discover | 15.17 |
Fifth Third | 5.49 |
Goldman Sachs | 3.10 |
HSBC | 10.78 |
Huntington | 4.87 |
JPMorgan Chase | 7.34 |
KeyCorp | 5.13 |
M&T | 5.31 |
Morgan Stanley | 3.01 |
Northern Trust | 8.21 |
PNC | 5.24 |
RBS Citizens | 5.77 |
Regions | 6.87 |
Santander | 8.66 |
State Street | 3.07 |
SunTrust | 4.58 |
U.S. Bancorp | 6.97 |
UnionBanCal | 4.98 |
Wells Fargo | 6.83 |
Zions | 6.61 |
Median = 5.6%
Estimates are for nine quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure 13. PPNR rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 2.31 |
American Express | 13.62 |
Bank of America | 1.44 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 2.18 |
BB&T | 3.76 |
BBVA Compass | 1.60 |
BMO | 1.30 |
Capital One | 7.09 |
Citigroup | 1.67 |
Comerica | 1.70 |
Discover | 15.47 |
Fifth Third | 3.68 |
Goldman Sachs | 0.53 |
HSBC | -0.33 |
Huntington | 2.55 |
JPMorgan Chase | 1.94 |
KeyCorp | 2.74 |
M&T | 3.91 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.04 |
Northern Trust | 2.72 |
PNC | 3.41 |
RBS Citizens | 2.65 |
Regions | 3.62 |
Santander | 5.41 |
State Street | 2.17 |
SunTrust | 3.28 |
U.S. Bancorp | 5.56 |
UnionBanCal | 0.70 |
Wells Fargo | 3.33 |
Zions | 0.37 |
Median = 2.6%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average assets.
Figure 14. Pre-tax net income rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | -1.77 |
American Express | 3.91 |
Bank of America | -2.25 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 1.56 |
BB&T | 0.75 |
BBVA Compass | -2.47 |
BMO | -1.83 |
Capital One | -2.00 |
Citigroup | -2.35 |
Comerica | -1.75 |
Discover | 0.73 |
Fifth Third | 0.10 |
Goldman Sachs | -2.47 |
HSBC | -3.37 |
Huntington | -1.72 |
JPMorgan Chase | -1.49 |
KeyCorp | -1.04 |
M&T | -0.93 |
Morgan Stanley | -2.03 |
Northern Trust | -0.37 |
PNC | -0.35 |
RBS Citizens | -2.14 |
Regions | -1.15 |
Santander | -2.37 |
State Street | 0.94 |
SunTrust | -0.69 |
U.S. Bancorp | 0.82 |
UnionBanCal | -3.45 |
Wells Fargo | -1.34 |
Zions | -5.11 |
Median = -1.6%
Figure 15. Minimum tier 1 common ratio in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 7.63 |
American Express | 12.53 |
Bank of America | 8.69 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 13.57 |
BB&T | 9.10 |
BBVA Compass | 11.08 |
BMO | 9.88 |
Capital One | 11.67 |
Citigroup | 9.75 |
Comerica | 10.26 |
Discover | 13.91 |
Fifth Third | 9.24 |
Goldman Sachs | 9.62 |
HSBC | 11.08 |
Huntington | 9.52 |
JPMorgan Chase | 8.72 |
KeyCorp | 10.46 |
M&T | 8.73 |
Morgan Stanley | 8.86 |
Northern Trust | 12.64 |
PNC | 10.22 |
RBS Citizens | 13.04 |
Regions | 10.72 |
Santander | 8.45 |
State Street | 13.91 |
SunTrust | 9.74 |
U.S. Bancorp | 9.09 |
UnionBanCal | 11.36 |
Wells Fargo | 9.98 |
Zions | 7.28 |
Median = 9.9%
Figure 16. Change from Q3 2013 to minimum tier 1 common ratio in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Change from Q3 2013 to minimum | Minimum ratio |
---|---|---|
Ally | 0.3 | 7.6 |
American Express | 0.3 | 12.5 |
Bank of America | 2.4 | 8.7 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.6 | 13.6 |
BB&T | 0.3 | 9.1 |
BBVA Compass | 0.5 | 11.1 |
BMO | 1.0 | 9.9 |
Capital One | 1.1 | 11.7 |
Citigroup | 2.9 | 9.7 |
Comerica | 0.5 | 10.3 |
Discover | 0.8 | 13.9 |
Fifth Third | 0.6 | 9.2 |
Goldman Sachs | 4.5 | 9.6 |
HSBC | 3.7 | 11.1 |
Huntington | 1.3 | 9.5 |
JPMorgan Chase | 1.8 | 8.7 |
KeyCorp | 0.7 | 10.5 |
M&T | 0.3 | 8.7 |
Morgan Stanley | 3.8 | 8.9 |
Northern Trust | 0.5 | 12.6 |
PNC | 0.1 | 10.2 |
RBS Citizens | 0.9 | 13.0 |
Regions | 0.3 | 10.7 |
Santander | 5.2 | 8.5 |
State Street | 1.6 | 13.9 |
SunTrust | 0.2 | 9.7 |
U.S. Bancorp | 0.2 | 9.1 |
UnionBanCal* | -0.3 | 11.4 |
Wells Fargo | 0.6 | 10.0 |
Zions | 3.2 | 7.3 |
* Hash pattern indicates that the minimum tier 1 common ratio over the planning horizon is larger than the Q3 2013 tier 1 common ratio. Return to table
Note: Estimates are for the nine quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure 17. Projected losses in the adverse scenario
Billions of dollars | |
---|---|
First-lien mortgages, domestic | 39 |
Trading and counterparty losses | 57 |
Credit cards | 77 |
Commercial and industrial loans | 43 |
Securities losses (AFS/HTM) | 7 |
Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic | 32 |
Commercial real estate, domestic | 32 |
Other consumer loans | 27 |
Other loans | 16 |
Other losses | 25 |
Figure 18. Total loan loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 3.75 |
American Express | 8.21 |
Bank of America | 4.18 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 1.13 |
BB&T | 3.14 |
BBVA Compass | 3.59 |
BMO | 4.41 |
Capital One | 9.27 |
Citigroup | 6.52 |
Comerica | 2.99 |
Discover | 12.83 |
Fifth Third | 4.02 |
Goldman Sachs | 2.13 |
HSBC | 8.22 |
Huntington | 3.59 |
JPMorgan Chase | 5.05 |
KeyCorp | 3.72 |
M&T | 3.88 |
Morgan Stanley | 2.12 |
Northern Trust | 5.67 |
PNC | 3.56 |
RBS Citizens | 4.34 |
Regions | 4.91 |
Santander | 6.55 |
State Street | 2.08 |
SunTrust | 3.26 |
U.S. Bancorp | 5.02 |
UnionBanCal | 2.94 |
Wells Fargo | 4.47 |
Zions | 4.34 |
Median = 4.1%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure 19. PPNR rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 3.36 |
American Express | 14.45 |
Bank of America | 2.53 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 2.91 |
BB&T | 5.09 |
BBVA Compass | 2.74 |
BMO | 2.05 |
Capital One | 8.34 |
Citigroup | 2.32 |
Comerica | 2.82 |
Discover | 16.36 |
Fifth Third | 4.90 |
Goldman Sachs | 0.50 |
HSBC | 0.92 |
Huntington | 3.76 |
JPMorgan Chase | 2.65 |
KeyCorp | 4.03 |
M&T | 5.16 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.18 |
Northern Trust | 3.32 |
PNC | 4.74 |
RBS Citizens | 3.98 |
Regions | 4.95 |
Santander | 6.41 |
State Street | 3.33 |
SunTrust | 4.77 |
U.S. Bancorp | 7.05 |
UnionBanCal | 2.05 |
Wells Fargo | 4.62 |
Zions | 1.29 |
Median = 3.6%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average assets.
Figure 20. Pre-tax net income rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 0.48 |
American Express | 7.09 |
Bank of America | 0.24 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 2.57 |
BB&T | 3.19 |
BBVA Compass | 0.31 |
BMO | 0.03 |
Capital One | 1.47 |
Citigroup | -0.49 |
Comerica | 0.98 |
Discover | 4.07 |
Fifth Third | 2.69 |
Goldman Sachs | -1.63 |
HSBC | -1.00 |
Huntington | 0.62 |
JPMorgan Chase | 0.61 |
KeyCorp | 1.50 |
M&T | 1.89 |
Morgan Stanley | -1.23 |
Northern Trust | 1.29 |
PNC | 2.54 |
RBS Citizens | 0.65 |
Regions | 1.95 |
Santander | 0.77 |
State Street | 2.59 |
SunTrust | 2.36 |
U.S. Bancorp | 3.97 |
UnionBanCal | -0.28 |
Wells Fargo | 1.91 |
Zions | -1.95 |
Median = 1.1%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average assets.
Figure D.1. First-lien mortgages, domestic loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 6.01 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 4.91 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 2.32 |
BB&T | 2.39 |
BBVA Compass | 2.20 |
BMO | 6.73 |
Capital One | 3.87 |
Citigroup | 7.25 |
Comerica | 4.34 |
Discover | 0.00 |
Fifth Third | 5.21 |
Goldman Sachs | 7.46 |
HSBC | 16.69 |
Huntington | 3.99 |
JPMorgan Chase | 6.60 |
KeyCorp | 4.05 |
M&T | 3.86 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.97 |
Northern Trust | 4.71 |
PNC | 2.32 |
RBS Citizens | 3.35 |
Regions | 6.40 |
Santander | 4.35 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 4.79 |
U.S. Bancorp | 2.46 |
UnionBanCal | 3.22 |
Wells Fargo | 6.74 |
Zions | 0.84 |
Median = 4.0%
Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.2. Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 9.91 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 10.28 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 11.71 |
BB&T | 4.78 |
BBVA Compass | 9.09 |
BMO | 7.25 |
Capital One | 10.00 |
Citigroup | 13.47 |
Comerica | 5.80 |
Discover | 14.88 |
Fifth Third | 7.40 |
Goldman Sachs | 10.87 |
HSBC | 18.33 |
Huntington | 6.04 |
JPMorgan Chase | 11.69 |
KeyCorp | 5.25 |
M&T | 7.08 |
Morgan Stanley | 11.07 |
Northern Trust | 17.48 |
PNC | 4.87 |
RBS Citizens | 9.88 |
Regions | 7.99 |
Santander | 4.81 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 7.71 |
U.S. Bancorp | 6.30 |
UnionBanCal | 3.24 |
Wells Fargo | 9.78 |
Zions | 5.03 |
Median = 7.9%
Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.3. Commercial and industrial loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 4.13 |
American Express | 11.39 |
Bank of America | 3.76 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 5.12 |
BB&T | 4.36 |
BBVA Compass | 4.18 |
BMO | 5.15 |
Capital One | 7.61 |
Citigroup | 4.94 |
Comerica | 2.96 |
Discover | 13.23 |
Fifth Third | 4.86 |
Goldman Sachs | 9.47 |
HSBC | 2.81 |
Huntington | 4.79 |
JPMorgan Chase | 7.01 |
KeyCorp | 3.82 |
M&T | 3.95 |
Morgan Stanley | 8.91 |
Northern Trust | 8.05 |
PNC | 5.73 |
RBS Citizens | 3.87 |
Regions | 4.86 |
Santander | 3.94 |
State Street | 6.87 |
SunTrust | 4.69 |
U.S. Bancorp | 8.22 |
UnionBanCal | 3.88 |
Wells Fargo | 6.04 |
Zions | 6.67 |
Median = 4.9%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances. Losses are calculated based on the exposure at default, which includes both outstanding balances and any additional drawdown of the credit line that occurs prior to default, while loss rates are calculated as a percent of outstanding balances.
Figure D.4. Commercial real estate, domestic loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 4.83 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 8.94 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 8.58 |
BB&T | 6.24 |
BBVA Compass | 10.27 |
BMO | 9.73 |
Capital One | 6.39 |
Citigroup | 10.53 |
Comerica | 7.55 |
Discover | 35.37 |
Fifth Third | 9.42 |
Goldman Sachs | 10.03 |
HSBC | 12.61 |
Huntington | 6.93 |
JPMorgan Chase | 6.75 |
KeyCorp | 8.78 |
M&T | 6.87 |
Morgan Stanley | 9.40 |
Northern Trust | 11.30 |
PNC | 10.14 |
RBS Citizens | 8.43 |
Regions | 11.15 |
Santander | 9.51 |
State Street | 26.19 |
SunTrust | 5.58 |
U.S. Bancorp | 11.23 |
UnionBanCal | 10.13 |
Wells Fargo | 7.89 |
Zions | 8.35 |
Median = 9.2%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.5. Credit card loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 0.00 |
American Express | 10.62 |
Bank of America | 13.41 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.00 |
BB&T | 15.23 |
BBVA Compass | 18.94 |
BMO | 15.22 |
Capital One | 20.50 |
Citigroup | 17.01 |
Comerica | 0.00 |
Discover | 16.41 |
Fifth Third | 18.94 |
Goldman Sachs | 0.00 |
HSBC | 16.45 |
Huntington | 8.15 |
JPMorgan Chase | 12.74 |
KeyCorp | 16.83 |
M&T | 16.46 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.00 |
Northern Trust | 0.00 |
PNC | 14.35 |
RBS Citizens | 15.97 |
Regions | 16.94 |
Santander | 16.37 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 13.63 |
U.S. Bancorp | 16.19 |
UnionBanCal | 0.00 |
Wells Fargo | 16.43 |
Zions | 16.24 |
Median = 15.2%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.6. Other consumer loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 5.20 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 3.47 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.48 |
BB&T | 6.30 |
BBVA Compass | 4.87 |
BMO | 2.67 |
Capital One | 9.67 |
Citigroup | 14.00 |
Comerica | 8.38 |
Discover | 10.16 |
Fifth Third | 2.59 |
Goldman Sachs | 3.33 |
HSBC | 10.83 |
Huntington | 3.30 |
JPMorgan Chase | 4.42 |
KeyCorp | 8.85 |
M&T | 6.18 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.56 |
Northern Trust | 17.91 |
PNC | 3.60 |
RBS Citizens | 3.15 |
Regions | 6.22 |
Santander | 13.28 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 2.74 |
U.S. Bancorp | 4.17 |
UnionBanCal | 13.19 |
Wells Fargo | 5.68 |
Zions | 10.68 |
Median = 5.0%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.7. Other loans loss rates in the severely adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 3.89 |
American Express | 4.50 |
Bank of America | 1.58 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.99 |
BB&T | 2.00 |
BBVA Compass | 2.14 |
BMO | 5.07 |
Capital One | 3.46 |
Citigroup | 2.59 |
Comerica | 7.12 |
Discover | 4.50 |
Fifth Third | 3.10 |
Goldman Sachs | 1.83 |
HSBC | 2.16 |
Huntington | 2.38 |
JPMorgan Chase | 3.61 |
KeyCorp | 2.24 |
M&T | 2.40 |
Morgan Stanley | 1.98 |
Northern Trust | 7.81 |
PNC | 1.70 |
RBS Citizens | 2.44 |
Regions | 2.59 |
Santander | 4.32 |
State Street | 2.69 |
SunTrust | 1.45 |
U.S. Bancorp | 4.33 |
UnionBanCal | 3.86 |
Wells Fargo | 2.93 |
Zions | 4.81 |
Median = 2.6%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.8. First-lien mortgages, domestic loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 4.14 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 3.43 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.96 |
BB&T | 1.56 |
BBVA Compass | 1.37 |
BMO | 4.46 |
Capital One | 1.41 |
Citigroup | 5.02 |
Comerica | 2.47 |
Discover | 0.00 |
Fifth Third | 4.26 |
Goldman Sachs | 2.47 |
HSBC | 13.15 |
Huntington | 2.68 |
JPMorgan Chase | 3.42 |
KeyCorp | 3.45 |
M&T | 3.01 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.46 |
Northern Trust | 3.00 |
PNC | 1.54 |
RBS Citizens | 2.40 |
Regions | 4.54 |
Santander | 3.14 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 3.19 |
U.S. Bancorp | 1.69 |
UnionBanCal | 1.43 |
Wells Fargo | 3.25 |
Zions | 0.26 |
Median = 2.6%
Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.9. Junior liens and HELOCs, domestic loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 6.95 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 7.34 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 8.96 |
BB&T | 3.59 |
BBVA Compass | 7.47 |
BMO | 6.38 |
Capital One | 8.25 |
Citigroup | 9.81 |
Comerica | 4.42 |
Discover | 9.24 |
Fifth Third | 6.22 |
Goldman Sachs | 8.49 |
HSBC | 15.54 |
Huntington | 5.24 |
JPMorgan Chase | 8.21 |
KeyCorp | 4.14 |
M&T | 5.85 |
Morgan Stanley | 8.31 |
Northern Trust | 13.80 |
PNC | 3.32 |
RBS Citizens | 8.08 |
Regions | 6.41 |
Santander | 3.59 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 6.52 |
U.S. Bancorp | 4.67 |
UnionBanCal | 1.70 |
Wells Fargo | 6.96 |
Zions | 3.47 |
Median = 6.5%
Estimates are for nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.10. Commercial and industrial loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 2.78 |
American Express | 8.31 |
Bank of America | 2.44 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 4.41 |
BB&T | 3.10 |
BBVA Compass | 2.81 |
BMO | 3.53 |
Capital One | 5.40 |
Citigroup | 3.57 |
Comerica | 1.90 |
Discover | 10.17 |
Fifth Third | 3.18 |
Goldman Sachs | 6.07 |
HSBC | 1.80 |
Huntington | 3.47 |
JPMorgan Chase | 4.76 |
KeyCorp | 2.44 |
M&T | 2.92 |
Morgan Stanley | 6.36 |
Northern Trust | 5.46 |
PNC | 3.77 |
RBS Citizens | 2.63 |
Regions | 3.29 |
Santander | 2.70 |
State Street | 4.21 |
SunTrust | 3.04 |
U.S. Bancorp | 5.79 |
UnionBanCal | 2.51 |
Wells Fargo | 4.32 |
Zions | 4.52 |
Median = 3.5%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances. Losses are calculated based on the exposure at default, which includes both outstanding balances and any additional drawdown of the credit line that occurs prior to default, while loss rates are calculated as a percent of outstanding balances.
Figure D.11. Commercial real estate, domestic loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 3.04 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 5.63 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 5.53 |
BB&T | 4.21 |
BBVA Compass | 6.75 |
BMO | 6.79 |
Capital One | 4.28 |
Citigroup | 6.53 |
Comerica | 4.83 |
Discover | 34.76 |
Fifth Third | 6.35 |
Goldman Sachs | 6.34 |
HSBC | 7.96 |
Huntington | 4.78 |
JPMorgan Chase | 4.15 |
KeyCorp | 5.88 |
M&T | 4.65 |
Morgan Stanley | 6.06 |
Northern Trust | 7.49 |
PNC | 6.58 |
RBS Citizens | 5.60 |
Regions | 7.60 |
Santander | 6.31 |
State Street | 16.08 |
SunTrust | 3.64 |
U.S. Bancorp | 7.32 |
UnionBanCal | 6.49 |
Wells Fargo | 5.16 |
Zions | 5.36 |
Median = 6.0%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.12. Credit card loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 0.00 |
American Express | 8.41 |
Bank of America | 10.95 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.00 |
BB&T | 12.35 |
BBVA Compass | 14.95 |
BMO | 12.16 |
Capital One | 17.13 |
Citigroup | 14.00 |
Comerica | 0.00 |
Discover | 13.76 |
Fifth Third | 14.97 |
Goldman Sachs | 0.00 |
HSBC | 13.49 |
Huntington | 8.08 |
JPMorgan Chase | 10.32 |
KeyCorp | 13.79 |
M&T | 13.46 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.00 |
Northern Trust | 0.00 |
PNC | 11.63 |
RBS Citizens | 13.43 |
Regions | 13.54 |
Santander | 13.43 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 10.67 |
U.S. Bancorp | 13.28 |
UnionBanCal | 0.00 |
Wells Fargo | 13.49 |
Zions | 13.30 |
Median = 12.3%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.13. Other consumer loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 4.18 |
American Express | 0.00 |
Bank of America | 2.85 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.61 |
BB&T | 4.89 |
BBVA Compass | 4.04 |
BMO | 2.20 |
Capital One | 7.92 |
Citigroup | 12.31 |
Comerica | 7.23 |
Discover | 9.08 |
Fifth Third | 2.05 |
Goldman Sachs | 2.89 |
HSBC | 9.45 |
Huntington | 2.64 |
JPMorgan Chase | 3.74 |
KeyCorp | 7.55 |
M&T | 4.73 |
Morgan Stanley | 0.56 |
Northern Trust | 15.95 |
PNC | 2.99 |
RBS Citizens | 2.62 |
Regions | 5.07 |
Santander | 10.87 |
State Street | 0.00 |
SunTrust | 2.21 |
U.S. Bancorp | 3.31 |
UnionBanCal | 11.25 |
Wells Fargo | 4.72 |
Zions | 9.12 |
Median = 4.1%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.
Figure D.14. Other loans loss rates in the adverse scenario
Bank Holding Company | Percent |
---|---|
Ally | 2.35 |
American Express | 2.88 |
Bank of America | 1.11 |
Bank of NY-Mellon | 0.74 |
BB&T | 1.29 |
BBVA Compass | 1.54 |
BMO | 3.65 |
Capital One | 2.09 |
Citigroup | 1.73 |
Comerica | 4.29 |
Discover | 2.65 |
Fifth Third | 2.27 |
Goldman Sachs | 1.33 |
HSBC | 1.35 |
Huntington | 1.51 |
JPMorgan Chase | 2.30 |
KeyCorp | 1.47 |
M&T | 1.62 |
Morgan Stanley | 1.43 |
Northern Trust | 5.29 |
PNC | 1.09 |
RBS Citizens | 1.53 |
Regions | 1.80 |
Santander | 2.87 |
State Street | 1.86 |
SunTrust | 0.94 |
U.S. Bancorp | 3.22 |
UnionBanCal | 2.38 |
Wells Fargo | 1.95 |
Zions | 3.20 |
Median = 1.8%
Note: Estimates are for the nine-quarter period from Q4 2013 to Q4 2015 as a percent of average balances.