Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Dave Reifschneider, William L. Wascher, and David W. Wilcox

Figure 1. State-Space Model Estimates of Potential GDP and Its Components

	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for the level of potential GDP in billions of chain-weighted 2009 dollars	Upper 95 percent confidence interval for the level of potential GDP in billions of chain-weighted 2009 dollars	Level of potential GDP in billions of chain-weighted 2009 dollars	2000-2007 trend for the level of potential GDP in billions of chain-weighted 2009 dollars	Actual GDP in billions of chain-weighted 2009 dollars	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for the four-quarter growth rate of potential GDP	Upper 95 percent confidence interval for the four-quarter growth rate of potential GDP	Four-quarter growth rate of potential GDP	Four-quarter growth rate of actual real GDP	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for the natural rate of unemployment	Upper 95 percent confidence interval for the natural rate of unemployment	Natural rate of unemployment	Actual rate of unemployment	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for the trend labor force participation rate	Upper 95 percent confidence interval for the trend labor force participation rate	Trend labor force participation rate	Actual labor force participation rate	Contribution of actual capital deepening to potential output in percentage points	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for trend multifactor productivity	Upper 95 percent confidence interval for trend multifactor productivity	Trend multifactor productivity	2000-2007 trend in trend multifactor productivity
1990Q1	8796.92	9094.45	8944.45		8947.13	2.61	3.95	3.28	2.87	6.26	4.40	5.34	5.43	66.16	67.40	66.77	66.95	0.53	85.37	87.68	86.52
1990Q2	8862.92	9162.70	9011.57		8981.73	2.54	3.87	3.20	2.46	6.16	4.30	5.23	5.47	66.16	67.41	66.78	66.76	0.47	85.63	87.95	86.78
1990Q3	8927.21	9229.18	9076.94		8983.95	2.46	3.80	3.13	1.73	6.16	4.30	5.24	5.82	66.17	67.41	66.79	66.69	0.45	85.86	88.18	87.02
1990Q4	8978.14	9281.85	9128.73		8907.36	2.36	3.70	3.03	0.65	6.10	4.24	5.17	6.24	66.17	67.42	66.79	66.64	0.45	85.92	88.25	87.08
1991Q1	9025.65	9331.00	9177.05		8865.56	1.90	3.24	2.57	-0.91	6.08	4.21	5.15	6.70	66.17	67.41	66.78	66.48	0.50	86.07	88.39	87.22
1991Q2	9077.89	9385.04	9230.19		8934.37	1.73	3.07	2.40	-0.53	6.01	4.15	5.09	6.95	66.17	67.41	66.79	66.47	0.49	86.23	88.57	87.39
1991Q3	9131.00	9439.98	9284.20		8977.25	1.59	2.93	2.26	-0.07	5.87	4.00	4.94	6.98	66.16	67.40	66.78	66.29	0.40	86.35	88.69	87.51
1991Q4	9195.12	9506.31	9349.42		9016.44	1.72	3.06	2.39	1.22	5.84	3.98	4.91	7.22	66.17	67.42	66.79	66.32	0.32	86.58	88.92	87.74
1992Q1	9274.81	9588.74	9430.47		9122.95	2.05	3.39	2.72	2.90	6.00	4.14	5.07	7.50	66.19	67.43	66.81	66.52	0.26	87.04	89.40	88.21
1992Q2	9346.39	9662.78	9503.27		9223.55	2.25	3.59	2.92	3.24	6.12	4.25	5.19	7.72	66.22	67.47	66.84	66.77	0.24	87.29	89.65	88.46
1992Q3	9409.86	9728.45	9567.83		9313.21	2.34	3.68	3.01	3.74	6.14	4.27	5.21	7.75	66.24	67.49	66.86	66.83	0.28	87.44	89.80	88.61
1992Q4	9466.05	9786.60	9624.99		9406.53	2.24	3.57	2.90	4.33	6.09	4.22	5.16	7.53	66.23	67.48	66.85	66.55	0.35	87.52	89.89	88.70
1993Q1	9516.29	9838.60	9676.10		9424.07	1.90	3.24	2.57	3.30	5.93	4.06	5.00	7.28	66.24	67.49	66.86	66.46	0.37	87.42	89.78	88.59
1993Q2	9582.69	9907.32	9743.65		9480.11	1.83	3.17	2.50	2.78	5.91	4.04	4.98	7.20	66.27	67.52	66.89	66.61	0.42	87.51	89.88	88.69
1993Q3	9618.30	9944.21	9779.89		9526.34	1.52	2.86	2.19	2.29	5.83	3.96	4.90	6.93	66.28	67.53	66.90	66.63	0.45	87.45	89.81	88.62
1993Q4	9710.54	10039.65	9873.72		9653.51	1.88	3.22	2.55	2.63	5.84	3.97	4.91	6.75	66.30	67.55	66.92	66.62	0.47	87.73	90.11	88.91
1994Q1	9790.72	10122.63	9955.29		9748.16	2.18	3.51	2.84	3.44	5.81	3.94	4.88	6.58	66.32	67.57	66.94	66.45	0.50	87.88	90.25	89.06
1994Q2	9867.00	10201.58	10032.90		9881.38	2.26	3.59	2.93	4.23	5.75	3.88	4.82	6.19	66.34	67.59	66.96	66.34	0.48	88.00	90.38	89.19
1994Q3	9933.46	10270.40	10100.53		9939.66	2.56	3.90	3.23	4.34	5.76	3.88	4.82	6.03	66.38	67.62	67.00	66.40	0.50	88.11	90.50	89.30
1994Q4	9991.27	10330.27	10159.36		10052.52	2.18	3.52	2.85	4.13	5.73	3.86	4.80	5.65	66.39	67.64	67.01	66.62	0.56	88.24	90.63	89.43
1995Q1	10044.56	10385.48	10213.60		10086.88	1.89	3.23	2.56	3.47	5.72	3.85	4.79	5.51	66.41	67.66	67.03	66.57	0.64	88.31	90.70	89.49
1995Q2	10108.98	10452.20	10279.16		10122.12	1.76	3.09	2.42	2.44	5.83	3.95	4.89	5.70	66.43	67.68	67.05	66.42	0.80	88.51	90.91	89.70
1995Q3	10173.15	10518.67	10344.47		10208.77	1.72	3.06	2.39	2.71	5.90	4.03	4.97	5.68	66.44	67.69	67.06	66.40	0.88	88.68	91.08	89.87
1995Q4	10239.76	10587.68	10412.27		10281.25	1.79	3.13	2.46	2.28	5.93	4.06	5.00	5.60	66.45	67.70	67.07	66.33	0.93	88.86	91.27	90.06
1996Q1	10325.48	10676.46	10499.50		10348.69	2.09	3.43	2.76	2.60	5.92	4.04	4.98	5.57	66.48	67.73	67.11	66.31	0.95	89.14	91.55	90.34
1996Q2	10434.64	10789.48	10610.58		10529.38	2.50	3.84	3.17	4.02	5.95	4.07	5.01	5.50	66.53	67.78	67.15	66.48	0.92	89.51	91.94	90.72
1996Q3	10508.52	10866.04	10685.79		10626.78	2.58	3.92	3.25	4.09	5.94	4.06	5.00	5.29	66.56	67.81	67.18	66.65	0.93	89.68	92.11	90.88
1996Q4	10594.84	10955.47	10773.64		10739.06	2.74	4.08	3.41	4.45	6.05	4.17	5.11	5.34	66.61	67.86	67.23	66.85	0.94	89.94	92.38	91.15
1997Q1	10692.02	11056.14	10872.56		10820.91	2.82	4.16	3.49	4.56	6.05	4.17	5.11	5.24	66.64	67.89	67.26	66.86	0.97	90.19	92.63	91.40
1997Q2	10803.19	11171.30	10985.70		10984.15	2.80	4.14	3.47	4.32	6.00	4.12	5.06	4.99	66.64	67.90	67.27	66.89	1.02	90.52	92.98	91.74
1997Q3	10918.67	11290.93	11103.24		11124.01	3.16	4.50	3.83	4.68	6.04	4.16	5.11	4.88	66.64	67.89	67.26	66.92	1.13	90.91	93.38	92.14
1997Q4	11015.42	11391.20	11201.74		11210.33	3.23	4.57	3.90	4.39	6.02	4.14	5.09	4.71	66.63	67.88	67.25	66.87	1.21	91.20	93.68	92.43
1998Q1	11108.41	11487.61	11296.42		11321.25	3.15	4.49	3.82	4.62	6.05	4.17	5.11	4.63	66.62	67.87	67.24	66.96	1.33	91.48	93.96	92.72
1998Q2	11216.20	11599.33	11406.16		11431.05	3.09	4.43	3.76	4.07	5.98	4.09	5.04	4.40	66.60	67.86	67.22	66.86	1.41	91.80	94.29	93.04
1998Q3	11329.22	11716.48	11521.22		11580.59	3.03	4.37	3.70	4.10	6.10	4.21	5.16	4.52	66.59	67.84	67.21	66.91	1.47	92.26	94.76	93.50
1998Q4	11433.35	11824.46	11627.26		11770.69	3.06	4.40	3.73	5.00	6.15	4.27	5.22	4.42	66.57	67.82	67.19	67.03	1.51	92.53	95.04	93.78
1999Q1	11530.84	11925.60	11726.56		11864.68	3.07	4.41	3.74	4.80	6.21	4.33	5.27	4.27	66.52	67.77	67.14	67.04	1.57	92.86	95.38	94.11
1999Q2	11635.65	12034.33	11833.31		11962.52	3.01	4.35	3.68	4.65	6.20	4.31	5.26	4.24	66.50	67.75	67.12	66.96	1.63	93.11	95.63	94.36
1999Q3	11744.00	12146.75	11943.68		12113.08	2.93	4.27	3.60	4.60	6.25	4.36	5.31	4.23	66.47	67.72	67.09	66.95	1.65	93.43	95.97	94.69
1999Q4	11877.91	12285.63	12080.05		12323.34	3.15	4.49	3.82	4.70	6.25	4.36	5.31	4.07	66.44	67.70	67.07	67.00	1.65	93.92	96.47	95.18
2000Q1	12007.05	12419.59	12211.58		12359.10	3.38	4.72	4.05	4.17	6.28	4.38	5.33	4.05	66.43	67.68	67.05	67.24	1.62	94.38	96.94	95.65
2000Q2	12142.38	12560.00	12349.43		12592.53	3.60	4.94	4.27	5.27	6.24	4.35	5.30	3.95	66.37	67.63	67.00	67.12	1.61	94.86	97.44	96.14
2000Q3	12235.81	12657.09	12444.67		12607.68	3.44	4.78	4.11	4.08	6.26	4.36	5.32	4.03	66.30	67.55	66.92	66.85	1.57	95.20	97.79	96.49
2000Q4	12330.01	12755.02	12540.71		12679.34	3.07	4.41	3.74	2.89	6.12	4.22	5.17	3.92	66.23	67.48	66.85	66.87	1.49	95.49	98.09	96.78
2001Q1	12415.70	12844.16	12628.11		12643.28	2.68	4.02	3.35	2.30	6.11	4.21	5.17	4.23	66.19	67.44	66.81	67.07	1.40	95.88	98.49	97.18
2001Q2	12497.71	12929.54	12711.79		12710.30	2.22	3.56	2.89	0.94	6.09	4.18	5.14	4.41	66.08	67.33	66.70	66.67	1.24	96.30	98.92	97.60
2001Q3	12575.50	13010.59	12791.20		12670.11	2.08	3.42	2.75	0.50	6.07	4.16	5.12	4.82	66.00	67.24	66.62	66.56	1.06	96.69	99.32	98.00
2001Q4	12666.31	13105.14	12883.86		12705.27	2.03	3.37	2.70	0.20	6.19	4.27	5.24	5.53	65.92	67.17	66.54	66.62	0.98	97.14	99.79	98.46
2002Q1	12736.06	13177.95	12955.12		12822.26	1.89	3.23	2.56	1.42	6.23	4.32	5.28	5.70	65.82	67.06	66.44	66.46	0.91	97.61	100.26	98.93
2002Q2	12839.74	13285.90	13060.92		12893.00	2.04	3.38	2.71	1.44	6.23	4.31	5.28	5.84	65.74	66.99	66.36	66.48	0.86	97.99	100.66	99.32
2002Q3	12928.65	13378.62	13151.71		12955.77	2.11	3.45	2.78	2.25	6.10	4.18	5.14	5.73	65.66	66.90	66.28	66.40	0.83	98.32	100.99	99.65
2002Q4	13008.46	13461.97	13233.27		12964.02	2.01	3.35	2.68	2.04	6.05	4.12	5.09	5.84	65.60	66.84	66.21	66.21	0.75	98.67	101.35	100.00
2003Q1	13104.86	13562.53	13331.73		13031.17	2.19	3.54	2.87	1.63	5.94	4.01	4.98	5.87	65.53	66.77	66.15	66.09	0.64	99.10	101.80	100.45
2003Q2	13191.91	13653.47	13420.71		13152.09	2.05	3.39	2.72	2.01	6.08	4.14	5.12	6.15	65.47	66.71	66.09	66.16	0.63	99.66	102.38	101.01
2003Q3	13260.31	13725.16	13490.73		13372.36	1.87	3.22	2.55	3.22	6.11	4.17	5.14	6.11	65.41	66.64	66.02	65.84	0.62	100.08	102.81	101.44
2003Q4	13344.31	13813.06	13576.66		13528.71	1.89	3.23	2.56	4.36	6.06	4.12	5.10	5.82	65.35	66.58	65.96	65.75	0.61	100.46	103.20	101.82
2004Q1	13446.91	13920.27	13681.54		13606.51	1.92	3.26	2.59	4.42	6.07	4.12	5.10	5.69	65.29	66.53	65.91	65.74	0.59	100.90	103.65	102.26
2004Q2	13512.89	13989.63	13749.19		13706.25	1.75	3.09	2.42	4.21	6.08	4.13	5.11	5.59	65.26	66.50	65.87	65.65	0.56	101.29	104.06	102.66
2004Q3	13615.49	14096.97	13854.14		13830.83	1.99	3.33	2.66	3.43	6.08	4.12	5.10	5.43	65.23	66.47	65.84	65.63	0.54	101.72	104.50	103.10
2004Q4	13722.88	14209.36	13964.00		13950.38	2.14	3.48	2.81	3.12	6.09	4.13	5.12	5.39	65.20	66.44	65.82	65.61	0.58	102.14	104.93	103.53
2005Q1	13823.48	14314.78	14066.98		14099.08	2.11	3.45	2.78	3.62	6.08	4.11	5.10	5.28	65.18	66.42	65.80	65.53	0.64	102.56	105.37	103.95
2005Q2	13915.74	14411.64	14161.52		14172.70	2.28	3.63	2.95	3.40	6.03	4.05	5.05	5.11	65.17	66.41	65.79	65.71	0.64	102.83	105.65	104.23
2005Q3	14010.10	14510.77	14258.24		14291.76	2.20	3.55	2.88	3.33	6.01	4.03	5.02	4.96	65.15	66.39	65.76	65.75	0.63	103.23	106.06	104.64
2005Q4	14088.39	14593.35	14338.65		14373.44	1.98	3.32	2.65	3.03	6.11	4.12	5.12	4.95	65.12	66.36	65.74	65.67	0.65	103.59	106.43	105.00
2006Q1	14184.97	14694.96	14437.71		14546.12	1.93	3.27	2.60	3.17	6.13	4.14	5.14	4.72	65.11	66.35	65.73	65.75	0.68	104.01	106.86	105.43
2006Q2	14267.15	14781.74	14522.17		14589.59	1.84	3.19	2.51	2.94	6.16	4.16	5.17	4.65	65.09	66.33	65.70	65.78	0.72	104.26	107.12	105.68
2006Q3	14319.48	14837.70	14576.29		14602.63	1.53	2.88	2.21	2.18	6.21	4.21	5.21	4.64	65.06	66.30	65.67	65.79	0.77	104.42	107.29	105.85
2006Q4	14375.80	14897.88	14634.51		14716.93	1.37	2.71	2.04	2.39	6.17	4.16	5.17	4.45	65.03	66.27	65.64	65.94	0.72	104.61	107.48	106.03
2007Q1	14417.73	14943.26	14678.14		14726.02	0.98	2.32	1.65	1.24	6.20	4.17	5.19	4.52	64.99	66.24	65.61	65.95	0.70	104.73	107.61	106.16
2007Q2	14482.97	15012.91	14745.56		14838.66	0.85	2.20	1.53	1.71	6.18	4.14	5.16	4.49	64.94	66.18	65.56	65.59	0.66	104.97	107.86	106.40
2007Q3	14547.66	15082.10	14812.47		14938.47	0.93	2.28	1.61	2.30	6.23	4.19	5.21	4.65	64.90	66.14	65.52	65.54	0.65	105.21	108.11	106.65
2007Q4	14652.53	15193.08	14920.36	14920.36	14991.78	1.26	2.61	1.93	1.87	6.17	4.12	5.15	4.80	64.88	66.13	65.50	65.59	0.63	105.52	108.43	106.96	106.96
2008Q1	14764.71	15311.77	15035.75	15016.41	14889.45	1.73	3.08	2.41	1.11	6.08	4.02	5.05	4.99	64.87	66.11	65.49	65.77	0.57	105.82	108.74	107.27	107.36
2008Q2	14865.94	15419.25	15140.07	15113.08	14963.36	1.97	3.31	2.64	0.84	6.08	4.00	5.05	5.33	64.84	66.09	65.46	65.68	0.53	106.23	109.17	107.69	107.76
2008Q3	14955.19	15514.47	15232.27	15210.37	14891.64	2.12	3.47	2.79	-0.31	6.16	4.08	5.13	6.02	64.82	66.07	65.44	65.68	0.46	106.68	109.64	108.15	108.16
2008Q4	15022.59	15587.17	15302.28	15308.28	14576.99	1.85	3.20	2.53	-2.77	6.18	4.09	5.14	6.89	64.78	66.02	65.40	65.56	0.37	106.98	109.95	108.46	108.57
2009Q1	15057.58	15626.38	15339.34	15406.83	14375.02	1.32	2.67	2.00	-3.45	6.44	4.34	5.39	8.31	64.75	65.99	65.37	65.38	0.32	107.39	110.38	108.87	108.97
2009Q2	15126.57	15701.04	15411.13	15506.02	14355.56	1.10	2.45	1.77	-4.06	6.61	4.50	5.56	9.31	64.71	65.96	65.33	65.36	0.23	107.91	110.91	109.40	109.38
2009Q3	15211.01	15791.91	15498.74	15605.84	14402.48	1.06	2.41	1.73	-3.28	6.52	4.40	5.47	9.63	64.66	65.91	65.28	65.00	0.07	108.31	111.33	109.81	109.78
2009Q4	15276.78	15863.59	15567.42	15706.30	14541.90	1.04	2.39	1.72	-0.24	6.66	4.53	5.60	9.94	64.60	65.85	65.22	64.56	0.04	108.76	111.80	110.27	110.19
2010Q1	15319.08	15911.07	15612.27	15807.41	14604.85	1.09	2.44	1.76	1.60	6.62	4.47	5.55	9.84	64.54	65.79	65.16	64.54	-0.07	108.94	111.99	110.46	110.61
2010Q2	15386.82	15985.16	15683.13	15909.17	14745.93	1.07	2.43	1.75	2.72	6.59	4.43	5.52	9.68	64.48	65.74	65.11	64.55	-0.14	109.22	112.28	110.74	111.02
2010Q3	15419.75	16023.29	15718.62	16011.59	14845.46	0.73	2.09	1.41	3.08	6.69	4.51	5.60	9.50	64.40	65.66	65.03	64.30	-0.06	109.52	112.60	111.05	111.43
2010Q4	15437.17	16045.49	15738.40	16114.66	14939.00	0.42	1.77	1.09	2.73	6.88	4.69	5.79	9.55	64.32	65.59	64.95	64.09	0.00	109.76	112.85	111.29	111.85
2011Q1	15481.06	16095.41	15785.25	16218.40	14881.30	0.42	1.78	1.10	1.89	6.64	4.42	5.54	9.04	64.24	65.51	64.87	63.94	0.01	109.82	112.93	111.37	112.26
2011Q2	15507.97	16127.91	15814.90	16322.81	14989.56	0.16	1.51	0.84	1.65	6.76	4.53	5.65	9.08	64.17	65.44	64.80	63.87	0.13	110.07	113.19	111.62	112.68
2011Q3	15545.03	16171.19	15855.02	16427.89	15021.15	0.19	1.54	0.86	1.18	6.81	4.56	5.69	9.01	64.09	65.36	64.72	63.80	0.18	110.28	113.42	111.84	113.10
2011Q4	15611.75	16245.58	15925.51	16533.65	15190.26	0.50	1.86	1.18	1.68	6.75	4.48	5.62	8.68	64.00	65.28	64.64	63.77	0.19	110.55	113.71	112.12	113.53
2012Q1	15660.49	16301.54	15977.80	16640.08	15275.05	0.53	1.89	1.21	2.65	6.71	4.42	5.57	8.25	63.91	65.19	64.55	63.79	0.33	110.83	114.02	112.42	113.95
2012Q2	15689.83	16337.59	16010.43	16747.20	15336.74	0.55	1.91	1.23	2.32	6.79	4.48	5.64	8.18	63.81	65.10	64.45	63.74	0.40	111.08	114.29	112.67	114.37
2012Q3	15718.85	16373.61	16042.89	16855.01	15431.34	0.50	1.86	1.18	2.73	6.79	4.46	5.64	8.01	63.70	65.00	64.35	63.59	0.42	111.28	114.52	112.89	114.80
2012Q4	15762.17	16424.86	16090.10	16963.52	15433.70	0.35	1.71	1.03	1.60	6.79	4.44	5.62	7.82	63.60	64.91	64.25	63.66	0.47	111.51	114.78	113.14	115.23
2013Q1	15847.39	16520.15	16180.27	17072.72	15538.44	0.58	1.94	1.26	1.72	6.79	4.41	5.60	7.73	63.48	64.81	64.14	63.46	0.50	111.85	115.16	113.50	115.66
2013Q2	15907.62	16589.83	16245.15	17182.63	15606.59	0.77	2.14	1.46	1.76	6.72	4.32	5.53	7.52	63.37	64.71	64.03	63.37	0.48	112.09	115.44	113.76	116.09
2013Q3	15971.08	16663.35	16313.54	17293.24	15779.94	0.99	2.36	1.67	2.26	6.64	4.21	5.43	7.26	63.25	64.60	63.92	63.20	0.49	112.33	115.72	114.01	116.52
2013Q4	16011.30	16713.18	16358.48	17404.57	15916.21	0.96	2.34	1.65	3.13	6.59	4.12	5.36	6.96	63.11	64.48	63.79	62.81	0.52	112.51	115.96	114.22	116.96
2014Q1	16015.97	16726.54	16367.40	17516.61	15831.65	0.46	1.84	1.15	1.89	6.47	3.98	5.23	6.67	62.99	64.39	63.68	63.00	0.51	112.42	115.92	114.16	117.39
2014Q2	16104.51	16828.43	16462.49	17629.38	16010.41	0.63	2.03	1.33	2.59	6.33	3.80	5.07	6.22	62.86	64.28	63.57	62.75	0.51	112.71	116.30	114.49	117.83
2014Q3	16170.96	16908.71	16535.72	17742.87	16150.61	0.65	2.06	1.35	2.35	6.38	3.82	5.11	6.10	62.75	64.21	63.48	62.76	0.55	112.99	116.69	114.83	118.27

Figure 2. Estimates of Resource Utilization

	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for the output gap	Upper 95 percent confidence interval for the output gap	Two-sided estimate of the output gap	One-sided estimate of the output gap	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for the unemployment gap	Lower 95 percent confidence interval for the unemployment gap	Two-sided estimate of the unemployment gap	One-sided estimate of the unemployment gap
1990Q1	1.69	-1.63	0.03	0.59	-0.83	1.03	0.09	-0.33
1990Q2	1.33	-1.99	-0.33	0.41	-0.69	1.17	0.24	-0.31
1990Q3	0.63	-2.69	-1.03	-0.30	-0.34	1.52	0.58	0.01
1990Q4	-0.79	-4.12	-2.45	-1.62	0.14	2.00	1.07	0.48
1991Q1	-1.79	-5.12	-3.45	-2.56	0.62	2.49	1.55	0.93
1991Q2	-1.59	-4.92	-3.26	-2.37	0.94	2.80	1.86	1.24
1991Q3	-1.70	-5.03	-3.36	-2.04	1.11	2.98	2.04	1.23
1991Q4	-1.96	-5.29	-3.63	-2.24	1.38	3.24	2.31	1.44
1992Q1	-1.65	-4.98	-3.32	-2.37	1.50	3.36	2.43	1.65
1992Q2	-1.32	-4.65	-2.99	-2.23	1.60	3.47	2.53	1.77
1992Q3	-1.03	-4.36	-2.70	-2.08	1.61	3.48	2.54	1.83
1992Q4	-0.63	-3.96	-2.30	-1.53	1.44	3.31	2.37	1.62
1993Q1	-0.97	-4.30	-2.64	-1.39	1.35	3.22	2.28	1.44
1993Q2	-1.08	-4.41	-2.74	-1.41	1.29	3.16	2.22	1.33
1993Q3	-0.96	-4.29	-2.63	-1.11	1.10	2.97	2.03	1.19
1993Q4	-0.59	-3.92	-2.26	-0.92	0.91	2.78	1.84	1.09
1994Q1	-0.44	-3.77	-2.10	-0.77	0.77	2.64	1.70	1.00
1994Q2	0.15	-3.19	-1.52	-0.03	0.44	2.31	1.37	0.65
1994Q3	0.06	-3.27	-1.61	-0.13	0.27	2.15	1.21	0.51
1994Q4	0.61	-2.73	-1.06	0.33	-0.08	1.79	0.85	0.26
1995Q1	0.42	-2.92	-1.25	0.28	-0.21	1.66	0.72	0.12
1995Q2	0.13	-3.21	-1.54	-0.08	-0.13	1.75	0.81	0.20
1995Q3	0.35	-2.99	-1.32	-0.06	-0.22	1.65	0.71	0.23
1995Q4	0.40	-2.94	-1.27	0.05	-0.33	1.54	0.60	0.13
1996Q1	0.22	-3.12	-1.45	-0.14	-0.35	1.53	0.59	0.13
1996Q2	0.90	-2.44	-0.77	0.38	-0.45	1.43	0.49	0.07
1996Q3	1.12	-2.23	-0.55	0.70	-0.65	1.23	0.29	-0.12
1996Q4	1.35	-2.00	-0.32	0.91	-0.71	1.17	0.23	-0.22
1997Q1	1.20	-2.15	-0.48	0.71	-0.81	1.07	0.13	-0.29
1997Q2	1.66	-1.69	-0.01	1.22	-1.01	0.87	-0.07	-0.51
1997Q3	1.86	-1.49	0.19	1.03	-1.16	0.72	-0.23	-0.47
1997Q4	1.75	-1.60	0.08	0.89	-1.31	0.57	-0.38	-0.58
1998Q1	1.90	-1.46	0.22	0.95	-1.42	0.46	-0.48	-0.64
1998Q2	1.90	-1.46	0.22	1.02	-1.58	0.31	-0.64	-0.80
1998Q3	2.19	-1.17	0.51	1.06	-1.58	0.31	-0.64	-0.77
1998Q4	2.91	-0.46	1.23	1.63	-1.73	0.15	-0.80	-0.84
1999Q1	2.85	-0.51	1.17	1.44	-1.94	-0.06	-1.00	-0.94
1999Q2	2.77	-0.60	1.09	1.42	-1.96	-0.07	-1.02	-0.94
1999Q3	3.09	-0.28	1.41	1.65	-2.02	-0.13	-1.08	-0.94
1999Q4	3.68	0.31	1.99	2.12	-2.18	-0.29	-1.24	-1.06
2000Q1	2.89	-0.49	1.20	1.24	-2.23	-0.33	-1.28	-1.13
2000Q2	3.64	0.26	1.95	1.72	-2.29	-0.40	-1.35	-1.08
2000Q3	2.99	-0.39	1.30	1.06	-2.23	-0.33	-1.29	-1.02
2000Q4	2.79	-0.60	1.10	1.02	-2.20	-0.30	-1.25	-0.98
2001Q1	1.82	-1.58	0.12	0.06	-1.88	0.02	-0.94	-0.75
2001Q2	1.69	-1.71	-0.01	-0.12	-1.68	0.23	-0.73	-0.50
2001Q3	0.75	-2.65	-0.95	-1.00	-1.25	0.66	-0.30	-0.10
2001Q4	0.31	-3.10	-1.40	-1.48	-0.66	1.26	0.29	0.39
2002Q1	0.67	-2.74	-1.03	-1.43	-0.53	1.38	0.42	0.66
2002Q2	0.41	-3.00	-1.29	-1.52	-0.39	1.53	0.56	0.70
2002Q3	0.21	-3.21	-1.50	-1.54	-0.37	1.55	0.59	0.71
2002Q4	-0.34	-3.77	-2.06	-2.05	-0.21	1.72	0.75	0.89
2003Q1	-0.56	-4.00	-2.28	-2.23	-0.07	1.86	0.89	1.03
2003Q2	-0.30	-3.74	-2.02	-2.29	0.07	2.01	1.03	1.24
2003Q3	0.84	-2.60	-0.88	-1.26	0.00	1.94	0.97	1.18
2003Q4	1.37	-2.08	-0.35	-0.74	-0.24	1.70	0.72	0.98
2004Q1	1.18	-2.28	-0.55	-0.91	-0.38	1.57	0.59	0.83
2004Q2	1.42	-2.05	-0.31	-0.69	-0.49	1.46	0.48	0.70
2004Q3	1.57	-1.91	-0.17	-0.68	-0.65	1.31	0.33	0.62
2004Q4	1.64	-1.84	-0.10	-0.70	-0.70	1.26	0.27	0.60
2005Q1	1.97	-1.52	0.23	-0.36	-0.80	1.17	0.18	0.46
2005Q2	1.83	-1.67	0.08	-0.44	-0.92	1.06	0.06	0.37
2005Q3	1.99	-1.52	0.23	-0.44	-1.05	0.93	-0.06	0.33
2005Q4	2.00	-1.52	0.24	-0.49	-1.16	0.83	-0.17	0.20
2006Q1	2.51	-1.02	0.75	-0.23	-1.41	0.58	-0.42	0.04
2006Q2	2.23	-1.31	0.46	-0.38	-1.51	0.49	-0.52	-0.14
2006Q3	1.96	-1.60	0.18	-0.78	-1.57	0.43	-0.57	-0.11
2006Q4	2.35	-1.22	0.56	-0.47	-1.72	0.29	-0.72	-0.15
2007Q1	2.12	-1.46	0.33	-0.43	-1.68	0.35	-0.67	-0.24
2007Q2	2.43	-1.17	0.63	-0.28	-1.69	0.35	-0.67	-0.10
2007Q3	2.65	-0.96	0.85	0.00	-1.58	0.46	-0.56	0.01
2007Q4	2.29	-1.33	0.48	-0.13	-1.37	0.68	-0.35	0.13
2008Q1	0.84	-2.80	-0.98	-1.46	-1.09	0.97	-0.06	0.42
2008Q2	0.65	-3.00	-1.17	-1.75	-0.75	1.33	0.28	0.83
2008Q3	-0.43	-4.10	-2.26	-2.94	-0.14	1.94	0.89	1.44
2008Q4	-3.01	-6.70	-4.86	-5.48	0.71	2.80	1.75	2.34
2009Q1	-4.64	-8.35	-6.49	-7.22	1.87	3.97	2.92	3.43
2009Q2	-5.23	-8.96	-7.10	-7.78	2.70	4.81	3.75	4.08
2009Q3	-5.46	-9.21	-7.34	-7.98	3.11	5.23	4.16	4.48
2009Q4	-4.93	-8.70	-6.81	-7.53	3.28	5.41	4.34	4.57
2010Q1	-4.77	-8.57	-6.67	-7.31	3.22	5.37	4.29	4.54
2010Q2	-4.25	-8.07	-6.16	-6.73	3.09	5.25	4.16	4.39
2010Q3	-3.80	-7.63	-5.72	-6.39	2.81	4.99	3.90	4.15
2010Q4	-3.28	-7.15	-5.21	-6.08	2.67	4.86	3.76	4.05
2011Q1	-3.95	-7.84	-5.90	-6.30	2.40	4.62	3.50	3.69
2011Q2	-3.40	-7.32	-5.36	-5.72	2.32	4.55	3.43	3.54
2011Q3	-3.43	-7.38	-5.40	-5.79	2.20	4.45	3.32	3.41
2011Q4	-2.74	-6.72	-4.73	-5.13	1.93	4.20	3.06	3.16
2012Q1	-2.49	-6.50	-4.50	-4.78	1.54	3.83	2.68	2.71
2012Q2	-2.28	-6.32	-4.30	-4.61	1.39	3.70	2.54	2.53
2012Q3	-1.85	-5.93	-3.89	-4.29	1.22	3.55	2.37	2.42
2012Q4	-2.11	-6.22	-4.17	-4.55	1.03	3.38	2.20	2.23
2013Q1	-1.97	-6.13	-4.05	-4.48	0.94	3.32	2.13	2.16
2013Q2	-1.91	-6.11	-4.01	-4.47	0.80	3.20	1.99	2.06
2013Q3	-1.20	-5.45	-3.33	-3.68	0.62	3.05	1.83	1.83
2013Q4	-0.60	-4.89	-2.74	-3.05	0.37	2.84	1.60	1.60
2014Q1	-1.16	-5.50	-3.33	-3.35	0.20	2.69	1.44	1.42
2014Q2	-0.59	-4.98	-2.78	-2.63	-0.11	2.42	1.15	1.09
2014Q3	-0.13	-4.59	-2.36	-2.36	-0.28	2.28	0.99	0.99
2014Q4

Figure 3. Assessing the Timing of the Slowdown in the Components of Potential GDP

	Capital services 4-quarter percent change	Trend MFP	25-year trend in MFP	Population 4-quarter percent change	Trend labor force participation rate	Demographically-adjusted trend labor force participation rate	Natural rate of unemployment	Trend workweek
2000Q1	6.84	89.34	89.34	1.21	67.05	67.12	5.33	101.42
2000Q2	6.73	89.80	89.80	1.21	67.00	67.07	5.30	101.35
2000Q3	6.44	90.12	90.12	1.21	66.92	66.98	5.32	101.29
2000Q4	6.17	90.39	90.39	1.21	66.85	66.91	5.17	101.20
2001Q1	5.77	90.76	90.76	1.21	66.81	66.91	5.17	101.11
2001Q2	5.06	91.16	91.16	1.21	66.70	66.82	5.14	101.06
2001Q3	4.38	91.53	91.53	1.22	66.62	66.73	5.12	101.02
2001Q4	3.86	91.96	91.96	1.22	66.54	66.67	5.24	101.01
2002Q1	3.45	92.40	92.40	1.22	66.44	66.62	5.28	100.96
2002Q2	3.30	92.76	92.76	1.22	66.36	66.58	5.28	100.95
2002Q3	3.31	93.07	93.07	1.22	66.28	66.51	5.14	100.88
2002Q4	3.14	93.40	93.40	1.22	66.21	66.46	5.09	100.82
2003Q1	2.92	93.81	93.81	1.22	66.15	66.48	4.98	100.73
2003Q2	2.70	94.34	94.34	1.21	66.09	66.45	5.12	100.67
2003Q3	2.50	94.74	94.74	1.21	66.02	66.43	5.14	100.58
2003Q4	2.49	95.10	95.10	1.21	65.96	66.37	5.10	100.53
2004Q1	2.40	95.51	95.51	1.21	65.91	66.37	5.10	100.50
2004Q2	2.39	95.89	95.89	1.21	65.87	66.39	5.11	100.38
2004Q3	2.44	96.30	96.30	1.20	65.84	66.36	5.10	100.34
2004Q4	2.59	96.69	96.69	1.20	65.82	66.38	5.12	100.29
2005Q1	2.85	97.09	97.09	1.20	65.80	66.42	5.10	100.22
2005Q2	3.10	97.35	97.35	1.19	65.79	66.45	5.05	100.21
2005Q3	3.06	97.73	97.73	1.19	65.76	66.43	5.02	100.17
2005Q4	3.09	98.07	98.07	1.19	65.74	66.45	5.12	100.14
2006Q1	3.20	98.47	98.47	1.18	65.73	66.49	5.14	100.11
2006Q2	3.22	98.71	98.71	1.17	65.70	66.51	5.17	100.10
2006Q3	3.38	98.86	98.86	1.17	65.67	66.49	5.21	100.11
2006Q4	3.31	99.03	99.03	1.16	65.64	66.50	5.17	100.08
2007Q1	3.18	99.15	99.15	1.16	65.61	66.50	5.19	100.03
2007Q2	3.06	99.38	99.38	1.15	65.56	66.50	5.16	100.02
2007Q3	2.98	99.61	99.61	1.14	65.52	66.45	5.21	100.01
2007Q4	2.96	99.90	99.90	1.13	65.50	66.48	5.15	100.00
2008Q1	2.94	100.19	100.20	1.12	65.49	66.47	5.05	100.03
2008Q2	2.86	100.58	100.50	1.11	65.46	66.50	5.05	100.06
2008Q3	2.68	101.01	100.80	1.11	65.44	66.52	5.13	100.08
2008Q4	2.22	101.30	101.10	1.10	65.40	66.50	5.14	100.09
2009Q1	1.58	101.69	101.40	1.09	65.37	66.50	5.39	100.07
2009Q2	0.98	102.18	101.70	1.08	65.33	66.54	5.56	100.05
2009Q3	0.49	102.56	102.01	1.07	65.28	66.53	5.47	100.01
2009Q4	0.24	102.99	102.31	1.07	65.22	66.52	5.60	100.07
2010Q1	0.17	103.17	102.62	1.05	65.16	66.51	5.55	100.08
2010Q2	0.20	103.43	102.92	1.05	65.11	66.52	5.52	100.16
2010Q3	0.27	103.72	103.23	1.04	65.03	66.46	5.60	100.20
2010Q4	0.39	103.94	103.54	1.03	64.95	66.50	5.79	100.22
2011Q1	0.52	104.01	103.85	1.02	64.87	66.48	5.54	100.17
2011Q2	0.70	104.25	104.16	1.02	64.80	66.43	5.65	100.21
2011Q3	0.93	104.46	104.47	1.01	64.72	66.41	5.69	100.21
2011Q4	1.19	104.72	104.78	1.00	64.64	66.42	5.62	100.21
2012Q1	1.49	104.99	105.10	1.00	64.55	66.38	5.57	100.21
2012Q2	1.69	105.24	105.41	0.99	64.45	66.31	5.64	100.16
2012Q3	1.73	105.44	105.72	0.99	64.35	66.27	5.64	100.14
2012Q4	1.81	105.67	106.04	0.98	64.25	66.25	5.62	100.12
2013Q1	1.83	106.00	106.36	0.98	64.14	66.20	5.60	100.11
2013Q2	1.88	106.25	106.67	0.97	64.03	66.15	5.53	100.07
2013Q3	2.01	106.49	106.99	0.97	63.92	66.12	5.43	100.03
2013Q4	2.06	106.68	107.31	0.97	63.79	66.07	5.36	99.99
2014Q1	2.14	106.62	107.63	0.96	63.68	66.04	5.23	99.94
2014Q2	2.21	106.94	107.95	0.96	63.57	66.04	5.07	99.93
2014Q3	2.31	107.25	108.28	0.95	63.48	66.04	5.11	99.93
2014Q4			108.60

Figure 4. Real-Time Estimates and Projections of Potential Output and the Natural Rate

	Potential output real-timel estimate and projection based on 2008 data	Potential output real-time estimate and projection based on 2009 data	Potential output real-time estimate and projection based on 2010 data	Potential output real-time estimate and projection based on 2011 data	Potential output real-time estimate and projection based on 2012 data	Potential output real-time estimate and projection based on 2013 data	Potential output real-time estimate and projection based on 2014 data	Potential output growth real-time estimate and projection based on 2008 data	Potential output growth real-time estimate and projection based on 2009 data	Potential output growth real-time estimate and projection based on 2010 data	Potential output growth real-time estimate and projection based on 2011 data	Potential output growth real-time estimate and projection based on 2012 data	Potential output growth real-time estimate and projection based on 2013 data	Potential output growth real-time estimate and projection based on 2014 data	Natural rate of unemployment real-time estimate and projection based on 2008 data	Natural rate of unemployment real-time estimate and projection based on 2009 data	Natural rate of unemployment real-time estimate and projection based on 2010 data	Natural rate of unemployment real-time estimate and projection based on 2011 data	Natural rate of unemployment real-time estimate and projection based on 2012 data	Natural rate of unemployment real-time estimate and projection based on 2013 data	Natural rate of unemployment real-time estimate and projection based on 2014 data	Unemployment gap real-time estimate based on 2008 data	Unemployment gap real-time estimate based on 2009 data	Unemployment gap real-time estimate based on 2010 data	Unemployment gap real-time estimate based on 2011 data	Unemployment gap real-time estimate based on 2012 data	Unemployment gap real-time estimate based on 2013 data	Unemployment gap real-time estimate based on 2014 data
2005Q1	13940.26	13929.07	13984.77	14029.66	14033.98	14021.89	14066.98	2.48	2.57	2.85	2.81	2.79	2.78	2.82	4.81	4.87	5.35	5.48	5.62	5.46	5.10	0.46	0.40	-0.08	-0.20	-0.34	-0.18	0.18
2005Q2	14022.23	14016.42	14074.80	14118.94	14124.21	14111.90	14161.52	2.59	2.71	2.96	2.93	2.93	2.91	3.00	4.77	4.85	5.31	5.44	5.59	5.42	5.05	0.34	0.26	-0.21	-0.34	-0.48	-0.31	0.06
2005Q3	14111.08	14104.31	14160.76	14204.07	14209.02	14196.69	14258.24	2.49	2.58	2.81	2.78	2.78	2.77	2.92	4.76	4.83	5.29	5.42	5.56	5.39	5.02	0.22	0.13	-0.33	-0.46	-0.60	-0.43	-0.06
2005Q4	14181.43	14178.00	14240.35	14281.93	14286.91	14274.41	14338.65	2.32	2.43	2.57	2.53	2.53	2.53	2.68	4.76	4.89	5.36	5.49	5.64	5.47	5.12	0.18	0.03	-0.42	-0.55	-0.69	-0.52	-0.17
2006Q1	14296.14	14280.25	14341.50	14382.57	14386.10	14374.36	14437.71	2.55	2.52	2.55	2.52	2.51	2.51	2.64	4.68	4.85	5.36	5.48	5.63	5.46	5.14	0.02	-0.15	-0.65	-0.77	-0.92	-0.74	-0.42
2006Q2	14390.80	14374.79	14433.18	14471.32	14474.84	14462.43	14522.17	2.63	2.56	2.55	2.50	2.48	2.48	2.55	4.69	4.89	5.38	5.51	5.67	5.49	5.17	-0.03	-0.23	-0.74	-0.87	-1.02	-0.84	-0.52
2006Q3	14465.49	14454.65	14496.81	14529.80	14533.67	14522.51	14576.29	2.51	2.48	2.37	2.29	2.28	2.30	2.23	4.67	4.90	5.41	5.55	5.71	5.53	5.21	-0.01	-0.26	-0.78	-0.92	-1.07	-0.89	-0.57
2006Q4	14546.58	14538.17	14560.79	14589.55	14592.53	14584.80	14634.51	2.57	2.54	2.25	2.15	2.14	2.17	2.06	4.55	4.76	5.37	5.52	5.68	5.49	5.17	-0.12	-0.34	-0.92	-1.08	-1.23	-1.05	-0.72
2007Q1	14624.19	14624.82	14633.18	14660.34	14660.94	14655.09	14678.14	2.29	2.41	2.03	1.93	1.91	1.95	1.67	4.55	4.70	5.33	5.50	5.65	5.46	5.19	-0.06	-0.21	-0.84	-1.00	-1.13	-0.94	-0.67
2007Q2	14739.27	14744.92	14736.48	14735.93	14739.05	14736.80	14745.56	2.42	2.57	2.10	1.83	1.83	1.90	1.54	4.50	4.66	5.26	5.42	5.56	5.38	5.16	0.01	-0.15	-0.79	-0.95	-1.08	-0.89	-0.67
2007Q3	14857.77	14862.45	14837.21	14813.01	14819.85	14820.77	14812.47	2.71	2.82	2.35	1.95	1.97	2.05	1.62	4.55	4.70	5.28	5.44	5.59	5.40	5.21	0.13	-0.04	-0.64	-0.79	-0.94	-0.75	-0.56
2007Q4	14943.09	14938.79	14950.70	14939.10	14936.37	14938.54	14920.36	2.73	2.76	2.68	2.40	2.36	2.43	1.95	4.50	4.62	5.26	5.42	5.54	5.36	5.15	0.30	0.15	-0.44	-0.62	-0.75	-0.56	-0.35
2008Q1	15022.23	15025.04	15046.23	15060.45	15050.53	15053.79	15035.75	2.72	2.74	2.82	2.73	2.66	2.72	2.44	4.48	4.58	5.18	5.35	5.51	5.33	5.05	0.46	0.36	-0.23	-0.41	-0.53	-0.34	-0.06
2008Q2	15097.01	15156.05	15151.66	15171.35	15165.40	15170.32	15140.07	2.43	2.79	2.82	2.95	2.89	2.94	2.68	4.48	4.65	5.19	5.32	5.50	5.32	5.05		0.71	0.12	-0.01	-0.18	0.01	0.28
2008Q3	15172.30	15287.95	15244.56	15265.03	15237.72	15246.68	15232.27	2.12	2.86	2.75	3.05	2.82	2.87	2.83	4.49	4.75	5.30	5.35	5.59	5.40	5.13		1.29	0.73	0.68	0.43	0.62	0.89
2008Q4	15248.09	15342.77	15309.28	15325.55	15289.33	15293.67	15302.28	2.04	2.70	2.40	2.59	2.36	2.38	2.56	4.49	4.77	5.39	5.38	5.58	5.39	5.14		2.08	1.55	1.53	1.32	1.50	1.75
2009Q1	15324.37	15386.43	15348.81	15360.28	15309.66	15274.95	15339.34	2.01	2.41	2.01	1.99	1.72	1.47	2.02	4.49	5.01	5.54	5.58	5.77	5.70	5.39		3.06	2.67	2.64	2.52	2.61	2.92
2009Q2	15401.14	15472.77	15419.83	15389.48	15363.87	15383.23	15411.13	2.01	2.09	1.77	1.44	1.31	1.40	1.79	4.50	4.98	5.72	5.80	5.89	5.82	5.56			3.56	3.49	3.41	3.49	3.75
2009Q3	15478.40	15559.53	15510.31	15467.16	15448.52	15502.00	15498.74	2.02	1.78	1.74	1.32	1.38	1.67	1.75	4.50	4.95	5.63	5.73	5.78	5.65	5.47			4.03	3.97	3.87	3.98	4.16
2009Q4	15556.13	15646.71	15603.11	15546.28	15497.10	15575.59	15567.42	2.02	1.98	1.92	1.44	1.36	1.84	1.73	4.50	4.93	5.77	5.84	5.88	5.72	5.60			4.28	4.17	4.09	4.23	4.34
2010Q1	15634.34	15734.33	15665.03	15612.32	15566.59	15627.50	15612.27	2.02	2.26	2.06	1.64	1.68	2.31	1.78	4.50	4.91	5.65	5.77	5.90	5.74	5.55			4.06	3.93	3.91	4.10	4.29
2010Q2	15713.01	15822.39	15741.18	15686.68	15637.17	15667.80	15683.13	2.02	2.26	2.08	1.93	1.78	1.85	1.76	4.50	4.89	5.62	5.79	5.93	5.72	5.52				3.87	3.73	3.95	4.16
2010Q3	15792.16	15910.89	15818.90	15726.71	15677.45	15665.59	15718.62	2.03	2.26	1.99	1.68	1.48	1.06	1.42	4.51	4.87	5.59	5.85	6.02	5.82	5.60				3.74	3.52	3.68	3.90
2010Q4	15871.77	15999.84	15898.12	15766.04	15691.00	15667.43	15738.40	2.03	2.26	1.89	1.41	1.25	0.59	1.10	4.51	4.86	5.57	5.98	6.16	6.00	5.79				3.65	3.43	3.56	3.76
2011Q1	15951.84	16089.25	15978.77	15785.96	15724.20	15711.98	15785.25	2.03	2.26	2.00	1.11	1.01	0.54	1.11	4.51	4.84	5.55	5.75	5.93	5.81	5.54				3.19	3.06	3.23	3.50
2011Q2	16032.38	16179.12	16060.78	15845.49	15755.64	15745.83	15814.90	2.03	2.25	2.03	1.01	0.76	0.50	0.84	4.51	4.83	5.53	5.72	6.03	5.90	5.65					3.04	3.16	3.43
2011Q3	16113.37	16269.46	16144.08	15907.71	15787.33	15780.20	15855.02	2.03	2.25	2.06	1.15	0.70	0.73	0.87	4.51	4.82	5.51	5.70	6.12	5.92	5.69					2.95	3.11	3.32
2011Q4	16194.82	16360.27	16228.64	15972.45	15842.31	15842.92	15925.51	2.04	2.25	2.08	1.31	0.96	1.12	1.19	4.51	4.80	5.49	5.68	6.02	5.83	5.62					2.69	2.85	3.06
2012Q1	16276.73	16451.56	16314.39	16039.55	15891.14	15892.39	15977.80	2.04	2.25	2.10	1.61	1.06	1.15	1.22	4.51	4.79	5.47	5.66	5.88	5.72	5.57					2.36	2.53	2.68
2012Q2	16359.10	16543.32	16401.29	16108.88	15942.75	15908.85	16010.43	2.04	2.25	2.12	1.66	1.19	1.04	1.24	4.51	4.78	5.46	5.64	5.85	5.78	5.64						2.38	2.54
2012Q3	16441.92	16635.58	16489.30	16180.30	15997.85	15936.41	16042.89	2.04	2.25	2.14	1.71	1.33	0.99	1.18	4.51	4.77	5.44	5.63	5.83	5.75	5.64						2.28	2.37
2012Q4	16525.19	16728.32	16578.37	16253.69	16056.21	15985.73	16090.10	2.04	2.25	2.16	1.76	1.35	0.90	1.03	4.51	4.76	5.43	5.61	5.81	5.77	5.62						2.06	2.20
2013Q1		16821.56	16668.48	16328.95	16117.63	16066.39	16180.27		2.25	2.17	1.80	1.43	1.09	1.27		4.76	5.42	5.60	5.80	5.78	5.60						1.96	2.13
2013Q2		16915.30	16759.59	16405.98	16181.90	16131.23	16245.15		2.25	2.18	1.84	1.50	1.40	1.47		4.75	5.41	5.59	5.78	5.75	5.53							1.99
2013Q3		17009.55	16851.67	16484.68	16248.86	16198.69	16313.54		2.25	2.20	1.88	1.57	1.65	1.69		4.74	5.40	5.58	5.76	5.72	5.43							1.83
2013Q4		17104.30	16944.69	16564.97	16318.32	16268.61	16358.48		2.25	2.21	1.92	1.63	1.77	1.67		4.74	5.39	5.56	5.75	5.70	5.36							1.60
2014Q1			17038.63	16646.77	16390.15	16340.84	16367.40			2.22	1.95	1.69	1.71	1.16			5.38	5.56	5.74	5.67	5.23							1.44
2014Q2			17133.46	16730.00	16464.21	16415.25	16462.49			2.23	1.98	1.74	1.76	1.34			5.37	5.55	5.72	5.65	5.07							1.15
2014Q3			17229.16	16814.61	16540.37	16491.72	16535.72			2.24	2.00	1.79	1.81	1.36			5.37	5.54	5.71	5.63	5.11							0.99
2014Q4			17325.72	16900.54	16618.51	16570.13	16592.38			2.25	2.03	1.84	1.85	1.43			5.36	5.53	5.70	5.61	5.11
2015Q1				15113.63	14790.55	14774.07	16651.04				2.05	1.88	1.89	1.73				5.52	5.69	5.60	5.12
2015Q2				15192.26	14863.00	14846.83	16711.57				2.07	1.92	1.93	1.51				5.52	5.68	5.58	5.12
2015Q3				15271.93	14936.96	14921.05	16773.86				2.09	1.96	1.97	1.44				5.51	5.68	5.57	5.13
2015Q4				15352.59	15012.33	14996.68	16837.81				2.11	1.99	2.00	1.48				5.51	5.67	5.55	5.13
2016Q1					15089.07	15073.65	16903.31					2.02	2.03	1.52					5.66	5.54	5.14
2016Q2					15167.10	15151.89	16970.28					2.05	2.05	1.55					5.66	5.53	5.14
2016Q3					15246.36	15231.35	17038.63					2.07	2.08	1.58					5.65	5.52	5.14
2016Q4					15326.82	15311.97	17108.29					2.09	2.10	1.61					5.65	5.51	5.15
2017Q1						15393.73	17179.19						2.12	1.63						5.50	5.15
2017Q2						15476.56	17251.27						2.14	1.66						5.49	5.15
2017Q3						15560.44	17324.47						2.16	1.68						5.49	5.15
2017Q4						15645.32	17398.73						2.18	1.70						5.48	5.15
2018Q1							17474.01							1.72							5.16
2018Q2							17550.25							1.73							5.16
2018Q3							17627.42							1.75							5.16
2018Q4							17705.48							1.76							5.16

Figure 5. Estimates of Potential GDP and Its Components from Alternative Specifications of the State-Space Model

	Potential output estimate based on demographic adjustments model	Potential output estimate based on flexible lag structure model	Potential output estimate based on Phillips curve break model	Potential output estimate based on baseline model	Actual real GDP	Natural rate of unemployment estimate based on demographic adjustments model	Natural rate of unemployment estimate based on flexible lag structure model	Natural rate of unemployment estimate based on Phillips curve break model	Natural rate of unemployment estimate based on baseline model	Actual unemployment rate	Trend labor force participation rate estimate based on demographic adjustments model	Trend labor force participation rate estimate based on flexible lag structure model	Trend labor force participation rate estimate based on Phillips curve break model	Trend labor force participation rate estimate based on baseline model	Actual labor force particpation rate	Trend multifactor productivity estimate based on demographic adjustments model	Trend multifactor productivity estimate based on flexible lag structure model	Trend multifactor productivity estimate based on Phillips curve break model	Trend multifactor productivity estimate based on baseline model
2005Q1	14058.47	14074.00	14019.53	14066.98	14099.08	5.13	5.14	5.32	5.10	5.28	65.82	65.79	65.70	65.80	65.53	99.98	100.01	99.97	99.99
2005Q2	14152.65	14157.74	14114.93	14161.52	14172.70	5.07	5.09	5.26	5.05	5.11	65.80	65.78	65.69	65.79	65.71	100.05	100.07	100.04	100.06
2005Q3	14250.94	14262.15	14212.98	14258.24	14291.76	5.06	5.06	5.23	5.02	4.96	65.81	65.77	65.67	65.76	65.75	100.15	100.18	100.14	100.16
2005Q4	14329.92	14345.47	14294.88	14338.65	14373.44	5.15	5.16	5.31	5.12	4.95	65.77	65.76	65.65	65.74	65.67	100.24	100.28	100.23	100.25
2006Q1	14426.78	14446.48	14395.53	14437.71	14546.12	5.17	5.20	5.33	5.14	4.72	65.73	65.75	65.64	65.73	65.75	100.35	100.39	100.34	100.35
2006Q2	14510.43	14520.23	14481.32	14522.17	14589.59	5.20	5.23	5.34	5.17	4.65	65.70	65.74	65.61	65.70	65.78	100.41	100.45	100.40	100.42
2006Q3	14568.41	14576.14	14536.84	14576.29	14602.63	5.24	5.27	5.38	5.21	4.64	65.70	65.72	65.58	65.67	65.79	100.45	100.48	100.44	100.46
2006Q4	14624.83	14618.93	14596.72	14634.51	14716.93	5.20	5.23	5.33	5.17	4.45	65.65	65.70	65.56	65.64	65.94	100.50	100.51	100.49	100.50
2007Q1	14670.29	14658.64	14642.04	14678.14	14726.02	5.22	5.23	5.34	5.19	4.52	65.63	65.67	65.53	65.61	65.95	100.53	100.53	100.52	100.54
2007Q2	14734.90	14724.10	14711.41	14745.56	14838.66	5.19	5.21	5.31	5.16	4.49	65.55	65.63	65.47	65.56	65.59	100.59	100.59	100.58	100.60
2007Q3	14804.03	14773.37	14780.58	14812.47	14938.47	5.24	5.27	5.35	5.21	4.65	65.54	65.59	65.44	65.52	65.54	100.65	100.63	100.64	100.66
2007Q4	14911.59	14884.43	14890.27	14920.36	14991.78	5.17	5.20	5.27	5.15	4.80	65.53	65.58	65.43	65.50	65.59	100.73	100.70	100.72	100.73
2008Q1	15029.35	14995.31	15006.98	15035.75	14889.45	5.08	5.12	5.17	5.05	4.99	65.54	65.57	65.42	65.49	65.77	100.80	100.77	100.79	100.81
2008Q2	15129.17	15106.92	15113.64	15140.07	14963.36	5.07	5.10	5.15	5.05	5.33	65.49	65.56	65.39	65.46	65.68	100.90	100.88	100.90	100.91
2008Q3	15222.36	15193.39	15208.47	15232.27	14891.64	5.16	5.19	5.21	5.13	6.02	65.49	65.54	65.38	65.44	65.68	101.01	100.99	101.01	101.02
2008Q4	15292.67	15261.64	15280.63	15302.28	14576.99	5.18	5.20	5.21	5.14	6.89	65.46	65.50	65.34	65.40	65.56	101.08	101.07	101.08	101.09
2009Q1	15328.80	15307.76	15320.96	15339.34	14375.02	5.44	5.48	5.44	5.39	8.31	65.44	65.46	65.32	65.37	65.38	101.18	101.17	101.18	101.20
2009Q2	15396.73	15403.76	15395.82	15411.13	14355.56	5.61	5.65	5.59	5.56	9.31	65.39	65.42	65.29	65.33	65.36	101.30	101.33	101.31	101.32
2009Q3	15485.24	15526.43	15485.57	15498.74	14402.48	5.52	5.53	5.48	5.47	9.63	65.36	65.36	65.25	65.28	65.00	101.40	101.47	101.41	101.42
2009Q4	15552.16	15617.91	15557.03	15567.42	14541.90	5.66	5.67	5.61	5.60	9.94	65.29	65.29	65.19	65.22	64.56	101.50	101.60	101.52	101.53
2010Q1	15595.94	15642.35	15603.76	15612.27	14604.85	5.62	5.66	5.55	5.55	9.84	65.24	65.22	65.14	65.16	64.54	101.54	101.62	101.56	101.57
2010Q2	15664.97	15726.32	15676.78	15683.13	14745.93	5.59	5.62	5.50	5.52	9.68	65.19	65.15	65.10	65.11	64.55	101.61	101.70	101.62	101.64
2010Q3	15703.33	15752.38	15714.61	15718.62	14845.46	5.68	5.72	5.58	5.60	9.50	65.14	65.04	65.02	65.03	64.30	101.68	101.77	101.70	101.71
2010Q4	15716.66	15767.07	15736.66	15738.40	14939.00	5.86	5.88	5.75	5.79	9.55	65.01	64.94	64.95	64.95	64.09	101.74	101.82	101.76	101.77
2011Q1	15765.17	15806.48	15784.40	15785.25	14881.30	5.61	5.63	5.50	5.54	9.04	64.94	64.83	64.88	64.87	63.94	101.76	101.82	101.77	101.79
2011Q2	15797.87	15828.87	15816.24	15814.90	14989.56	5.73	5.74	5.60	5.65	9.08	64.90	64.74	64.81	64.80	63.87	101.82	101.88	101.83	101.85
2011Q3	15837.14	15856.94	15857.89	15855.02	15021.15	5.77	5.81	5.64	5.69	9.01	64.82	64.63	64.74	64.72	63.80	101.87	101.92	101.88	101.90
2011Q4	15905.20	15943.48	15929.92	15925.51	15190.26	5.69	5.71	5.56	5.62	8.68	64.71	64.52	64.66	64.64	63.77	101.93	102.01	101.95	101.96
2012Q1	15958.83	15992.42	15983.56	15977.80	15275.05	5.64	5.66	5.50	5.57	8.25	64.63	64.41	64.57	64.55	63.79	102.00	102.08	102.02	102.03
2012Q2	15995.18	16005.66	16017.59	16010.43	15336.74	5.71	5.76	5.57	5.64	8.18	64.57	64.29	64.48	64.45	63.74	102.06	102.13	102.08	102.09
2012Q3	16026.06	16040.29	16051.31	16042.89	15431.34	5.71	5.76	5.56	5.64	8.01	64.46	64.16	64.38	64.35	63.59	102.11	102.18	102.13	102.14
2012Q4	16072.43	16068.50	16099.57	16090.10	15433.70	5.69	5.78	5.55	5.62	7.82	64.36	64.04	64.29	64.25	63.66	102.16	102.23	102.19	102.20
2013Q1	16161.82	16167.89	16191.03	16180.27	15538.44	5.68	5.75	5.52	5.60	7.73	64.25	63.90	64.18	64.14	63.46	102.25	102.33	102.27	102.28
2013Q2	16224.51	16234.21	16256.93	16245.15	15606.59	5.61	5.67	5.44	5.53	7.52	64.14	63.76	64.08	64.03	63.37	102.30	102.39	102.33	102.34
2013Q3	16290.63	16293.47	16326.43	16313.54	15779.94	5.52	5.59	5.35	5.43	7.26	64.02	63.62	63.97	63.92	63.20	102.36	102.44	102.39	102.40
2013Q4	16333.06	16335.84	16372.20	16358.48	15916.21	5.46	5.52	5.28	5.36	6.96	63.87	63.46	63.84	63.79	62.81	102.41	102.49	102.44	102.45
2014Q1	16340.80	16318.44	16380.89	16367.40	15831.65	5.34	5.39	5.15	5.23	6.67	63.76	63.32	63.74	63.68	63.00	102.40	102.45	102.42	102.43
2014Q2	16429.17	16424.66	16476.61	16462.49	16010.41	5.18	5.24	4.99	5.07	6.22	63.59	63.18	63.62	63.57	62.75	102.47	102.54	102.50	102.51
2014Q3	16499.03	16486.79	16550.57	16535.72	16150.61	5.22	5.29	5.03	5.11	6.10	63.47	63.06	63.53	63.48	62.76	102.55	102.61	102.58	102.58
2014Q4

Figure 6. Long-Term Unemployment

	Long-term unemployed (percent of labor force)
1980Q1	0.52
1980Q2	0.68
1980Q3	0.87
1980Q4	1.04
1981Q1	1.15
1981Q2	1.04
1981Q3	1.03
1981Q4	1.05
1982Q1	1.16
1982Q2	1.48
1982Q3	1.72
1982Q4	2.15
1983Q1	2.45
1983Q2	2.5
1983Q3	2.25
1983Q4	1.93
1984Q1	1.68
1984Q2	1.48
1984Q3	1.33
1984Q4	1.24
1985Q1	1.16
1985Q2	1.13
1985Q3	1.07
1985Q4	1.06
1986Q1	0.98
1986Q2	1.03
1986Q3	1.03
1986Q4	0.99
1987Q1	0.94
1987Q2	0.91
1987Q3	0.84
1987Q4	0.77
1988Q1	0.72
1988Q2	0.68
1988Q3	0.66
1988Q4	0.6
1989Q1	0.55
1989Q2	0.53
1989Q3	0.48
1989Q4	0.52
1990Q1	0.51
1990Q2	0.51
1990Q3	0.58
1990Q4	0.65
1991Q1	0.72
1991Q2	0.83
1991Q3	0.91
1991Q4	1.08
1992Q1	1.33
1992Q2	1.53
1992Q3	1.64
1992Q4	1.62
1993Q1	1.47
1993Q2	1.34
1993Q3	1.36
1993Q4	1.39
1994Q1	1.35
1994Q2	1.28
1994Q3	1.19
1994Q4	1.12
1995Q1	0.99
1995Q2	1
1995Q3	0.94
1995Q4	0.93
1996Q1	0.94
1996Q2	1.02
1996Q3	0.95
1996Q4	0.86
1997Q1	0.83
1997Q2	0.79
1997Q3	0.79
1997Q4	0.72
1998Q1	0.7
1998Q2	0.61
1998Q3	0.62
1998Q4	0.61
1999Q1	0.53
1999Q2	0.53
1999Q3	0.51
1999Q4	0.5
2000Q1	0.47
2000Q2	0.44
2000Q3	0.48
2000Q4	0.43
2001Q1	0.48
2001Q2	0.48
2001Q3	0.55
2001Q4	0.73
2002Q1	0.87
2002Q2	1.08
2002Q3	1.09
2002Q4	1.22
2003Q1	1.24
2003Q2	1.35
2003Q3	1.36
2003Q4	1.34
2004Q1	1.31
2004Q2	1.23
2004Q3	1.13
2004Q4	1.15
2005Q1	1.11
2005Q2	1.01
2005Q3	0.94
2005Q4	0.92
2006Q1	0.85
2006Q2	0.84
2006Q3	0.85
2006Q4	0.72
2007Q1	0.79
2007Q2	0.76
2007Q3	0.83
2007Q4	0.87
2008Q1	0.88
2008Q2	0.98
2008Q3	1.2
2008Q4	1.53
2009Q1	1.94
2009Q2	2.6
2009Q3	3.34
2009Q4	3.84
2010Q1	4.12
2010Q2	4.34
2010Q3	4.1
2010Q4	4.11
2011Q1	3.96
2011Q2	3.98
2011Q3	4.01
2011Q4	3.71
2012Q1	3.46
2012Q2	3.42
2012Q3	3.25
2012Q4	3.12
2013Q1	2.98
2013Q2	2.8
2013Q3	2.72
2013Q4	2.58
2014Q1	2.38
2014Q2	2.11
2014Q3	1.94

Figure 7. Startups and Young Business Employment

	Number of new establishments in thousands	New establishments as a share of all establishments in percent	Employment at startups and businesses of age one to two years as a percent of total employment	Employment at startups as a percent of total employment
1977	614.72	14.8
1978	508.44	12.04
1979	503.5	11.5	12.55	3.87
1980	456.2	10.37	10.08	3.35
1981	456.62	10.52	10.5	4.04
1982	461.93	10.33	10.94	4.06
1983	439.03	9.63	10.6	3.44
1984	507.44	10.74	10.29	3.62
1985	514.86	10.56	10.69	3.64
1986	527.66	10.53	11.16	3.77
1987	558.61	10.81	11.91	4.19
1988	496.55	9.51	11.53	3.53
1989	480.25	9.1	10.97	3.28
1990	485.27	8.97	9.68	3.16
1991	477.45	8.65	9.06	2.99
1992	473.59	8.49	8.75	3.08
1993	477.67	8.48	8.62	2.84
1994	501.4	8.76	8.65	3.08
1995	517.08	8.85	8.58	3.02
1996	519.34	8.75	8.6	2.98
1997	528	8.74	8.43	2.96
1998	519.91	8.51	8.69	3.23
1999	501.44	8.12	8.71	2.95
2000	486.77	7.83	8.81	2.76
2001	476.87	7.51	8.12	2.6
2002	510.97	7.99	7.9	2.97
2003	510.41	7.9	7.86	2.81
2004	529.22	8.09	7.9	2.77
2005	555.55	8.32	7.81	2.95
2006	573.69	8.46	8.02	2.99
2007	532.82	7.74	7.73	2.56
2008	496.42	7.23	7.09	2.38
2009	413.51	6.18	6.28	2.12
2010	395.33	5.97	6.06	2.19
2011	407.14	6.17	5.79	2.08
2012	413.35	6.19	5.9	2.06

Figure 8. Illustrative Relationship Between the Level of Slack and the Relative Strength of Incremental Hysteresis Effects

Unemployment gap	Relative strength of incremental hysteresis effects type 1	Relative strength of incremental hysteresis effects type 2
-6.00	-0.00	-6.00
-5.75	-0.00	-5.75
-5.50	-0.00	-5.50
-5.25	-0.00	-5.25
-5.00	-0.00	-5.00
-4.75	-0.00	-4.75
-4.50	-0.00	-4.50
-4.25	-0.00	-4.25
-4.00	-0.00	-4.00
-3.75	-0.00	-3.75
-3.50	-0.00	-3.50
-3.25	-0.00	-3.25
-3.00	-0.00	-3.00
-2.75	-0.00	-2.75
-2.50	-0.00	-2.50
-2.25	-0.00	-2.25
-2.00	-0.00	-2.00
-1.75	-0.00	-1.75
-1.50	-0.00	-1.49
-1.25	-0.00	-1.22
-1.00	-0.00	-0.92
-0.75	-0.00	-0.58
-0.50	-0.00	-0.25
-0.25	-0.00	-0.06
0.00	0.00	0.00
0.25	0.00	0.01
0.50	0.01	0.01
0.75	0.06	0.06
1.00	0.22	0.22
1.25	0.63	0.63
1.50	1.17	1.17
1.75	1.62	1.62
2.00	1.95	1.95
2.25	2.23	2.23
2.50	2.50	2.50
2.75	2.75	2.75
3.00	3.00	3.00
3.25	3.25	3.25
3.50	3.50	3.50
3.75	3.75	3.75
4.00	4.00	4.00
4.25	4.25	4.25
4.50	4.50	4.50
4.75	4.75	4.75
5.00	5.00	5.00
5.25	5.25	5.25
5.50	5.50	5.50
5.75	5.75	5.75
6.00	6.00	6.00

Figure 9A. Macro Effects of a Severe Demand Shock with Type 1 Hysteresis Under Different Policies

	Federal funds rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real GDP response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Unemployment rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Household employment response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	4-quarter PCE inflation response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points
2000Q1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2001Q1	-0.63	-1.06	-1.39	-1.73	-1.92	-2.71	-2.93	-3.02	-2.04	-2.04	-2.04	-2.04	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96	-1.01	-1.02	-1.02	-1.02	-0.04	0.02	0.03	0.03
2001Q2	-1.38	-2.06	-2.59	-3.11	-1.97	-2.76	-2.98	-3.05	-3.28	-3.17	-3.13	-3.10	1.71	1.66	1.64	1.62	-1.94	-1.89	-1.86	-1.84	-0.12	0.05	0.09	0.09
2001Q3	-2.27	-2.88	-3.40	-3.61	-1.99	-2.78	-2.98	-3.04	-4.84	-4.61	-4.52	-4.47	2.63	2.52	2.47	2.43	-3.08	-2.96	-2.90	-2.86	-0.20	0.10	0.17	0.18
2001Q4	-3.24	-3.41	-3.60	-3.63	-1.99	-2.77	-2.96	-3.01	-6.28	-5.93	-5.81	-5.74	3.54	3.38	3.32	3.28	-4.25	-4.07	-3.99	-3.94	-0.31	0.15	0.25	0.27
2002Q1	-3.63	-3.58	-3.61	-3.64	-1.96	-2.74	-2.92	-2.98	-7.54	-7.10	-6.96	-6.88	4.24	4.07	4.01	3.98	-5.23	-5.02	-4.94	-4.90	-0.37	0.18	0.31	0.33
2002Q2	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.64	-1.92	-2.71	-2.89	-2.95	-8.35	-7.84	-7.68	-7.60	4.54	4.36	4.31	4.28	-5.79	-5.56	-5.49	-5.45	-0.43	0.20	0.35	0.36
2002Q3	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.65	-1.88	-2.67	-2.85	-2.91	-8.77	-8.19	-8.01	-7.93	4.53	4.34	4.29	4.26	-5.97	-5.72	-5.64	-5.60	-0.48	0.20	0.36	0.37
2002Q4	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.65	-1.85	-2.63	-2.82	-2.87	-8.77	-8.12	-7.93	-7.84	4.26	4.04	3.98	3.95	-5.80	-5.52	-5.44	-5.40	-0.52	0.19	0.36	0.37
2003Q1	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.66	-1.81	-2.60	-2.78	-2.84	-8.65	-7.92	-7.72	-7.62	3.91	3.67	3.60	3.56	-5.49	-5.18	-5.09	-5.04	-0.57	0.17	0.34	0.36
2003Q2	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.66	-1.77	-2.56	-2.74	-2.80	-8.42	-7.61	-7.39	-7.29	3.55	3.28	3.21	3.17	-5.13	-4.78	-4.69	-4.64	-0.61	0.14	0.32	0.34
2003Q3	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.66	-1.73	-2.52	-2.71	-2.76	-8.14	-7.25	-7.02	-6.90	3.22	2.93	2.85	2.81	-4.78	-4.39	-4.28	-4.23	-0.66	0.11	0.30	0.31
2003Q4	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.69	-2.49	-2.67	-2.72	-7.83	-6.86	-6.60	-6.48	2.92	2.60	2.51	2.47	-4.44	-4.01	-3.90	-3.83	-0.71	0.08	0.27	0.28
2004Q1	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.65	-2.45	-2.63	-2.69	-7.49	-6.45	-6.17	-6.04	2.65	2.30	2.20	2.15	-4.12	-3.65	-3.53	-3.46	-0.75	0.05	0.24	0.25
2004Q2	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.61	-2.41	-2.59	-2.65	-7.16	-6.02	-5.73	-5.59	2.39	2.01	1.91	1.86	-3.82	-3.31	-3.17	-3.10	-0.80	0.01	0.21	0.22
2004Q3	-3.61	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.58	-2.37	-2.55	-2.61	-6.82	-5.60	-5.29	-5.14	2.15	1.75	1.64	1.59	-3.53	-2.98	-2.83	-2.76	-0.84	-0.02	0.18	0.19
2004Q4	-3.53	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.54	-2.34	-2.51	-2.57	-6.48	-5.18	-4.84	-4.68	1.93	1.50	1.39	1.33	-3.26	-2.66	-2.51	-2.43	-0.89	-0.05	0.15	0.16
2005Q1	-3.41	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.50	-2.30	-2.47	-2.53	-6.16	-4.76	-4.40	-4.23	1.72	1.27	1.15	1.09	-3.00	-2.36	-2.20	-2.11	-0.93	-0.08	0.12	0.13
2005Q2	-3.28	-3.59	-3.61	-3.67	-1.47	-2.26	-2.43	-2.49	-5.84	-4.35	-3.98	-3.80	1.53	1.05	0.93	0.87	-2.76	-2.07	-1.90	-1.81	-0.96	-0.10	0.10	0.11
2005Q3	-3.14	-3.58	-3.61	-3.67	-1.44	-2.22	-2.39	-2.45	-5.53	-3.96	-3.57	-3.39	1.36	0.86	0.73	0.67	-2.53	-1.80	-1.62	-1.53	-0.99	-0.13	0.08	0.09
2005Q4	-2.99	-3.58	-3.61	-3.66	-1.42	-2.18	-2.35	-2.41	-5.24	-3.60	-3.20	-3.01	1.21	0.68	0.55	0.48	-2.31	-1.54	-1.36	-1.26	-1.02	-0.15	0.06	0.07
2006Q1	-2.87	-3.58	-3.61	-3.66	-1.40	-2.14	-2.31	-2.36	-5.01	-3.25	-2.82	-2.62	1.09	0.51	0.37	0.30	-2.13	-1.30	-1.11	-1.00	-1.05	-0.17	0.04	0.05
2006Q2	-2.76	-3.57	-3.61	-3.66	-1.39	-2.10	-2.27	-2.32	-4.81	-2.91	-2.45	-2.25	0.99	0.35	0.21	0.13	-1.97	-1.07	-0.87	-0.76	-1.07	-0.18	0.03	0.04
2006Q3	-2.67	-3.57	-3.61	-3.66	-1.38	-2.06	-2.22	-2.28	-4.64	-2.59	-2.10	-1.88	0.90	0.21	0.05	-0.03	-1.84	-0.87	-0.64	-0.53	-1.09	-0.19	0.02	0.03
2006Q4	-2.60	-3.57	-3.60	-3.65	-1.37	-2.02	-2.18	-2.23	-4.49	-2.29	-1.77	-1.53	0.83	0.08	-0.09	-0.18	-1.72	-0.67	-0.44	-0.32	-1.10	-0.20	0.02	0.02
2007Q1	-2.54	-3.56	-3.60	-3.65	-1.37	-1.97	-2.13	-2.19	-4.36	-2.01	-1.45	-1.20	0.77	-0.03	-0.22	-0.31	-1.62	-0.50	-0.24	-0.12	-1.11	-0.20	0.01	0.02
2007Q2	-2.50	-3.56	-3.60	-3.65	-1.36	-1.93	-2.08	-2.14	-4.24	-1.75	-1.15	-0.89	0.73	-0.14	-0.34	-0.43	-1.53	-0.34	-0.07	0.07	-1.11	-0.20	0.01	0.02
2007Q3	-2.47	-3.56	-3.60	-3.64	-1.36	-1.88	-2.03	-2.09	-4.13	-1.50	-0.86	-0.59	0.69	-0.23	-0.44	-0.54	-1.46	-0.20	0.09	0.23	-1.11	-0.20	0.02	0.01
2007Q4	-2.45	-3.55	-3.59	-3.64	-1.36	-1.83	-1.98	-2.04	-4.03	-1.27	-0.60	-0.30	0.66	-0.31	-0.53	-0.64	-1.40	-0.08	0.23	0.38	-1.11	-0.20	0.02	0.02
2008Q1	-2.44	-3.54	-3.59	-3.63	-1.35	-1.78	-1.93	-1.99	-3.94	-1.06	-0.35	-0.04	0.64	-0.37	-0.62	-0.73	-1.35	0.03	0.36	0.52	-1.11	-0.19	0.02	0.02
2008Q2	-2.44	-3.53	-3.59	-3.63	-1.35	-1.73	-1.87	-1.93	-3.85	-0.87	-0.12	0.21	0.62	-0.43	-0.69	-0.81	-1.31	0.12	0.47	0.64	-1.10	-0.18	0.03	0.02
2008Q3	-2.44	-3.50	-3.58	-3.63	-1.35	-1.68	-1.82	-1.88	-3.77	-0.69	0.10	0.44	0.61	-0.47	-0.75	-0.88	-1.27	0.20	0.57	0.75	-1.09	-0.18	0.04	0.03
2008Q4	-2.45	-3.42	-3.57	-3.62	-1.35	-1.63	-1.76	-1.82	-3.69	-0.53	0.30	0.65	0.60	-0.51	-0.80	-0.94	-1.25	0.27	0.66	0.84	-1.08	-0.17	0.04	0.03
2009Q1	-2.45	-3.30	-3.57	-3.62	-1.35	-1.57	-1.70	-1.76	-3.61	-0.38	0.48	0.85	0.60	-0.53	-0.84	-0.99	-1.22	0.32	0.73	0.93	-1.07	-0.16	0.05	0.03
2009Q2	-2.46	-3.15	-3.56	-3.61	-1.34	-1.52	-1.64	-1.70	-3.53	-0.25	0.65	1.03	0.60	-0.55	-0.87	-1.03	-1.20	0.36	0.79	0.99	-1.06	-0.15	0.06	0.04
2009Q3	-2.46	-2.98	-3.56	-3.61	-1.34	-1.47	-1.58	-1.64	-3.46	-0.14	0.80	1.20	0.60	-0.55	-0.90	-1.06	-1.19	0.38	0.84	1.05	-1.04	-0.14	0.06	0.04
2009Q4	-2.47	-2.80	-3.53	-3.61	-1.33	-1.43	-1.51	-1.57	-3.38	-0.04	0.93	1.35	0.60	-0.55	-0.91	-1.08	-1.17	0.39	0.88	1.10	-1.03	-0.13	0.07	0.04
20010Q1	-2.47	-2.62	-3.43	-3.60	-1.33	-1.39	-1.44	-1.51	-3.30	0.04	1.05	1.48	0.60	-0.54	-0.92	-1.09	-1.16	0.39	0.90	1.13	-1.01	-0.12	0.08	0.05
20010Q2	-2.47	-2.44	-3.25	-3.60	-1.32	-1.35	-1.38	-1.44	-3.22	0.11	1.14	1.59	0.60	-0.52	-0.92	-1.10	-1.15	0.38	0.92	1.16	-0.99	-0.11	0.08	0.05
20010Q3	-2.47	-2.26	-3.02	-3.60	-1.31	-1.32	-1.32	-1.37	-3.14	0.17	1.22	1.69	0.60	-0.50	-0.90	-1.10	-1.14	0.37	0.91	1.17	-0.98	-0.10	0.09	0.05
20010Q4	-2.46	-2.11	-2.76	-3.59	-1.30	-1.29	-1.26	-1.30	-3.06	0.22	1.28	1.77	0.60	-0.47	-0.88	-1.09	-1.12	0.35	0.89	1.17	-0.96	-0.10	0.09	0.05
20011Q1	-2.45	-1.96	-2.49	-3.58	-1.29	-1.27	-1.21	-1.22	-2.98	0.27	1.31	1.83	0.60	-0.44	-0.84	-1.08	-1.11	0.32	0.86	1.17	-0.94	-0.09	0.09	0.04
20011Q2	-2.44	-1.84	-2.22	-3.57	-1.28	-1.25	-1.16	-1.15	-2.89	0.31	1.33	1.88	0.60	-0.42	-0.80	-1.05	-1.10	0.30	0.82	1.15	-0.92	-0.08	0.09	0.04
20011Q3	-2.42	-1.73	-1.97	-3.55	-1.27	-1.23	-1.13	-1.07	-2.81	0.35	1.34	1.90	0.60	-0.39	-0.75	-1.02	-1.09	0.27	0.77	1.12	-0.90	-0.08	0.09	0.04
20011Q4	-2.40	-1.64	-1.74	-3.42	-1.26	-1.22	-1.10	-0.99	-2.72	0.39	1.34	1.91	0.60	-0.36	-0.70	-0.98	-1.07	0.25	0.71	1.08	-0.88	-0.07	0.09	0.03
20012Q1	-2.38	-1.58	-1.53	-3.14	-1.25	-1.20	-1.07	-0.91	-2.63	0.42	1.33	1.90	0.59	-0.34	-0.64	-0.93	-1.06	0.22	0.65	1.03	-0.86	-0.07	0.09	0.02
20012Q2	-2.35	-1.53	-1.36	-2.77	-1.24	-1.19	-1.05	-0.84	-2.54	0.45	1.31	1.86	0.59	-0.31	-0.59	-0.87	-1.04	0.20	0.59	0.96	-0.85	-0.07	0.09	0.02
20012Q3	-2.32	-1.50	-1.23	-2.35	-1.23	-1.18	-1.04	-0.78	-2.46	0.49	1.29	1.79	0.58	-0.29	-0.54	-0.79	-1.02	0.18	0.53	0.87	-0.83	-0.07	0.09	0.01
20012Q4	-2.29	-1.48	-1.13	-1.92	-1.22	-1.17	-1.03	-0.73	-2.37	0.52	1.26	1.71	0.58	-0.27	-0.49	-0.70	-1.01	0.16	0.47	0.76	-0.81	-0.06	0.08	0.00
20013Q1	-2.26	-1.49	-1.06	-1.51	-1.21	-1.17	-1.03	-0.69	-2.28	0.56	1.24	1.60	0.57	-0.26	-0.44	-0.60	-0.99	0.15	0.41	0.64	-0.79	-0.07	0.08	-0.01
20013Q2	-2.22	-1.51	-1.03	-1.12	-1.20	-1.16	-1.02	-0.66	-2.19	0.60	1.22	1.48	0.56	-0.24	-0.40	-0.50	-0.97	0.14	0.36	0.52	-0.77	-0.07	0.07	-0.02
20013Q3	-2.18	-1.54	-1.03	-0.79	-1.19	-1.15	-1.02	-0.65	-2.10	0.64	1.21	1.36	0.55	-0.23	-0.36	-0.39	-0.95	0.13	0.32	0.39	-0.75	-0.07	0.06	-0.03
20013Q4	-2.14	-1.59	-1.06	-0.50	-1.18	-1.14	-1.02	-0.65	-2.01	0.67	1.19	1.22	0.54	-0.22	-0.32	-0.29	-0.93	0.12	0.28	0.27	-0.73	-0.07	0.05	-0.04

Figure 9B. Supply-Side Effects of a Severe Demand Shock With Type 1 Hysteresis Under Different Policies

	Potential GDP response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Potential GDP response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Potential GDP response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Potential GDP response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multi-factor productivity response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multifactor productivity response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multifactor productivity response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multifactor productivity response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Natural unemployment rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Natural unemployment rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Natural unemployment rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Natural unemployment rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend NFB labor input response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Trend NFB labor input response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend NFB labor input response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend NFB labor input response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent
2000Q1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2001Q1	-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.05	-0.21	-0.20	-0.19	-0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
2001Q2	-0.18	-0.18	-0.17	-0.17	-0.65	-0.63	-0.62	-0.62	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
2001Q3	-0.45	-0.44	-0.43	-0.43	-1.29	-1.24	-1.23	-1.23	-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.05	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.12	-0.11	-0.11	-0.11
2001Q4	-0.85	-0.81	-0.80	-0.79	-2.10	-2.02	-1.99	-1.98	-0.15	-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.07	-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.24
2002Q1	-1.32	-1.27	-1.25	-1.24	-3.02	-2.90	-2.86	-2.85	-0.26	-0.25	-0.24	-0.24	0.14	0.14	0.13	0.13	-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.10	-0.45	-0.43	-0.42	-0.41
2002Q2	-1.85	-1.77	-1.75	-1.73	-4.00	-3.82	-3.77	-3.75	-0.39	-0.38	-0.37	-0.36	0.21	0.20	0.20	0.19	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	-0.65	-0.62	-0.61	-0.60
2002Q3	-2.38	-2.28	-2.24	-2.22	-4.96	-4.73	-4.66	-4.63	-0.53	-0.51	-0.50	-0.49	0.28	0.26	0.26	0.26	-0.23	-0.22	-0.21	-0.21	-0.85	-0.81	-0.79	-0.78
2002Q4	-2.87	-2.74	-2.70	-2.68	-5.85	-5.56	-5.47	-5.44	-0.65	-0.63	-0.62	-0.61	0.33	0.32	0.31	0.31	-0.28	-0.27	-0.27	-0.26	-1.02	-0.97	-0.96	-0.95
2003Q1	-3.30	-3.14	-3.09	-3.07	-6.66	-6.29	-6.18	-6.14	-0.76	-0.73	-0.72	-0.71	0.38	0.36	0.36	0.35	-0.33	-0.31	-0.31	-0.31	-1.16	-1.10	-1.08	-1.07
2003Q2	-3.66	-3.47	-3.41	-3.38	-7.36	-6.91	-6.78	-6.73	-0.86	-0.82	-0.80	-0.80	0.41	0.39	0.38	0.38	-0.37	-0.35	-0.35	-0.34	-1.26	-1.19	-1.17	-1.16
2003Q3	-3.96	-3.72	-3.65	-3.62	-7.95	-7.41	-7.26	-7.20	-0.93	-0.88	-0.87	-0.86	0.43	0.41	0.40	0.40	-0.40	-0.38	-0.37	-0.37	-1.32	-1.25	-1.23	-1.21
2003Q4	-4.18	-3.91	-3.82	-3.79	-8.43	-7.80	-7.61	-7.55	-0.99	-0.94	-0.92	-0.91	0.44	0.42	0.41	0.41	-0.43	-0.40	-0.40	-0.39	-1.36	-1.28	-1.26	-1.24
2004Q1	-4.35	-4.03	-3.93	-3.89	-8.81	-8.07	-7.86	-7.78	-1.04	-0.97	-0.95	-0.94	0.45	0.42	0.41	0.41	-0.45	-0.42	-0.41	-0.41	-1.38	-1.29	-1.26	-1.25
2004Q2	-4.47	-4.09	-3.98	-3.93	-9.09	-8.23	-7.99	-7.90	-1.07	-1.00	-0.97	-0.96	0.45	0.41	0.40	0.40	-0.46	-0.43	-0.42	-0.41	-1.39	-1.28	-1.25	-1.23
2004Q3	-4.54	-4.10	-3.97	-3.91	-9.29	-8.30	-8.02	-7.92	-1.09	-1.00	-0.98	-0.96	0.44	0.40	0.39	0.38	-0.47	-0.43	-0.42	-0.41	-1.37	-1.24	-1.20	-1.18
2004Q4	-4.57	-4.04	-3.89	-3.83	-9.40	-8.28	-7.97	-7.85	-1.10	-0.99	-0.96	-0.94	0.43	0.38	0.36	0.35	-0.48	-0.43	-0.41	-0.40	-1.34	-1.18	-1.13	-1.11
2005Q1	-4.55	-3.94	-3.77	-3.70	-9.45	-8.18	-7.83	-7.71	-1.10	-0.97	-0.93	-0.91	0.41	0.35	0.33	0.32	-0.47	-0.42	-0.40	-0.39	-1.29	-1.10	-1.05	-1.02
2005Q2	-4.49	-3.80	-3.63	-3.55	-9.43	-8.01	-7.63	-7.49	-1.08	-0.93	-0.90	-0.88	0.38	0.31	0.30	0.29	-0.47	-0.40	-0.39	-0.38	-1.23	-1.02	-0.96	-0.94
2005Q3	-4.39	-3.65	-3.47	-3.39	-9.36	-7.79	-7.37	-7.21	-1.05	-0.90	-0.86	-0.84	0.35	0.28	0.27	0.26	-0.45	-0.39	-0.37	-0.36	-1.15	-0.93	-0.88	-0.86
2005Q4	-4.28	-3.49	-3.30	-3.22	-9.25	-7.52	-7.05	-6.89	-1.02	-0.86	-0.83	-0.81	0.32	0.26	0.24	0.24	-0.44	-0.37	-0.36	-0.35	-1.07	-0.85	-0.81	-0.78
2006Q1	-4.15	-3.33	-3.13	-3.04	-9.10	-7.20	-6.70	-6.52	-0.98	-0.83	-0.79	-0.78	0.29	0.23	0.22	0.21	-0.42	-0.36	-0.34	-0.33	-0.99	-0.78	-0.74	-0.72
2006Q2	-4.01	-3.16	-2.95	-2.86	-8.92	-6.86	-6.31	-6.12	-0.95	-0.79	-0.76	-0.74	0.26	0.21	0.20	0.19	-0.41	-0.34	-0.33	-0.32	-0.92	-0.72	-0.68	-0.66
2006Q3	-3.88	-2.99	-2.77	-2.68	-8.72	-6.48	-5.90	-5.69	-0.91	-0.76	-0.73	-0.72	0.24	0.19	0.18	0.17	-0.39	-0.33	-0.31	-0.31	-0.85	-0.66	-0.63	-0.61
2006Q4	-3.75	-2.82	-2.59	-2.50	-8.51	-6.09	-5.46	-5.24	-0.88	-0.73	-0.70	-0.69	0.22	0.17	0.16	0.15	-0.38	-0.32	-0.30	-0.30	-0.79	-0.61	-0.58	-0.56
2007Q1	-3.61	-2.65	-2.41	-2.32	-8.28	-5.68	-5.01	-4.77	-0.84	-0.70	-0.67	-0.66	0.19	0.15	0.14	0.14	-0.36	-0.30	-0.29	-0.28	-0.73	-0.57	-0.54	-0.52
2007Q2	-3.48	-2.48	-2.24	-2.14	-8.04	-5.27	-4.55	-4.29	-0.81	-0.68	-0.65	-0.63	0.18	0.14	0.13	0.13	-0.35	-0.29	-0.28	-0.27	-0.68	-0.53	-0.50	-0.48
2007Q3	-3.35	-2.32	-2.06	-1.97	-7.80	-4.84	-4.08	-3.81	-0.78	-0.65	-0.62	-0.61	0.16	0.12	0.12	0.11	-0.33	-0.28	-0.27	-0.26	-0.64	-0.49	-0.46	-0.45
2007Q4	-3.23	-2.15	-1.89	-1.79	-7.55	-4.42	-3.61	-3.32	-0.75	-0.62	-0.60	-0.58	0.14	0.11	0.10	0.10	-0.32	-0.27	-0.26	-0.25	-0.60	-0.46	-0.43	-0.42
2008Q1	-3.11	-2.00	-1.73	-1.62	-7.31	-3.99	-3.14	-2.83	-0.72	-0.60	-0.57	-0.56	0.13	0.10	0.09	0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-0.25	-0.24	-0.56	-0.43	-0.41	-0.39
2008Q2	-2.99	-1.84	-1.56	-1.46	-7.06	-3.57	-2.67	-2.35	-0.69	-0.57	-0.55	-0.54	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.08	-0.30	-0.25	-0.24	-0.23	-0.53	-0.41	-0.38	-0.37
2008Q3	-2.87	-1.70	-1.41	-1.30	-6.81	-3.16	-2.21	-1.87	-0.66	-0.55	-0.53	-0.52	0.10	0.08	0.08	0.07	-0.28	-0.24	-0.23	-0.22	-0.50	-0.39	-0.36	-0.35
2008Q4	-2.76	-1.55	-1.25	-1.14	-6.57	-2.75	-1.76	-1.40	-0.64	-0.53	-0.51	-0.50	0.09	0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.27	-0.23	-0.22	-0.21	-0.48	-0.37	-0.34	-0.33
2009Q1	-2.65	-1.41	-1.10	-0.99	-6.32	-2.35	-1.32	-0.94	-0.61	-0.51	-0.49	-0.48	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.06	-0.26	-0.22	-0.21	-0.20	-0.45	-0.35	-0.33	-0.31
2009Q2	-2.54	-1.28	-0.96	-0.84	-6.08	-1.97	-0.89	-0.50	-0.59	-0.49	-0.47	-0.46	0.08	0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.25	-0.21	-0.20	-0.20	-0.43	-0.33	-0.31	-0.30
2009Q3	-2.44	-1.15	-0.82	-0.70	-5.84	-1.60	-0.47	-0.06	-0.56	-0.47	-0.45	-0.44	0.07	0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.24	-0.20	-0.19	-0.19	-0.42	-0.32	-0.30	-0.28
2009Q4	-2.34	-1.03	-0.69	-0.56	-5.61	-1.24	-0.07	0.36	-0.54	-0.45	-0.43	-0.42	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	-0.23	-0.19	-0.19	-0.18	-0.40	-0.31	-0.28	-0.27
20010Q1	-2.25	-0.91	-0.57	-0.43	-5.38	-0.90	0.31	0.76	-0.52	-0.43	-0.41	-0.40	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.22	-0.19	-0.18	-0.17	-0.38	-0.29	-0.27	-0.26
20010Q2	-2.15	-0.80	-0.45	-0.31	-5.15	-0.58	0.68	1.15	-0.50	-0.41	-0.40	-0.39	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.22	-0.18	-0.17	-0.17	-0.37	-0.28	-0.26	-0.25
20010Q3	-2.06	-0.69	-0.33	-0.19	-4.93	-0.27	1.03	1.51	-0.48	-0.40	-0.38	-0.37	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.21	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-0.36	-0.27	-0.25	-0.24
20010Q4	-1.97	-0.59	-0.22	-0.08	-4.70	0.02	1.36	1.86	-0.46	-0.38	-0.37	-0.36	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.20	-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.23
20011Q1	-1.88	-0.50	-0.12	0.03	-4.49	0.29	1.67	2.19	-0.44	-0.37	-0.35	-0.34	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.19	-0.16	-0.15	-0.15	-0.34	-0.25	-0.23	-0.22
20011Q2	-1.80	-0.41	-0.02	0.13	-4.27	0.55	1.95	2.50	-0.43	-0.35	-0.34	-0.33	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	-0.18	-0.15	-0.14	-0.14	-0.33	-0.24	-0.22	-0.21
20011Q3	-1.71	-0.32	0.06	0.22	-4.06	0.79	2.22	2.79	-0.41	-0.34	-0.32	-0.32	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.18	-0.15	-0.14	-0.14	-0.32	-0.24	-0.22	-0.20
20011Q4	-1.63	-0.24	0.15	0.31	-3.85	1.02	2.46	3.06	-0.40	-0.32	-0.31	-0.30	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.17	-0.14	-0.13	-0.13	-0.31	-0.23	-0.21	-0.20
20012Q1	-1.55	-0.17	0.23	0.39	-3.64	1.23	2.68	3.30	-0.38	-0.31	-0.30	-0.29	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.16	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.30	-0.22	-0.20	-0.19
20012Q2	-1.48	-0.09	0.30	0.47	-3.44	1.43	2.88	3.52	-0.37	-0.30	-0.29	-0.28	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.16	-0.13	-0.12	-0.12	-0.29	-0.21	-0.19	-0.18
20012Q3	-1.40	-0.03	0.36	0.54	-3.24	1.62	3.07	3.72	-0.35	-0.29	-0.28	-0.27	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.15	-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.28	-0.20	-0.18	-0.17
20012Q4	-1.33	0.04	0.42	0.60	-3.04	1.79	3.23	3.89	-0.34	-0.28	-0.26	-0.26	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.15	-0.12	-0.11	-0.11	-0.28	-0.19	-0.18	-0.17
20013Q1	-1.26	0.10	0.48	0.65	-2.85	1.96	3.37	4.03	-0.33	-0.26	-0.25	-0.25	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.14	-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.27	-0.19	-0.17	-0.16
20013Q2	-1.19	0.16	0.53	0.70	-2.66	2.12	3.51	4.15	-0.31	-0.25	-0.24	-0.24	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.13	-0.11	-0.10	-0.10	-0.26	-0.18	-0.16	-0.15
20013Q3	-1.12	0.22	0.58	0.74	-2.47	2.27	3.62	4.24	-0.30	-0.24	-0.23	-0.23	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.13	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10	-0.26	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15
20013Q4	-1.05	0.28	0.63	0.78	-2.28	2.42	3.73	4.31	-0.29	-0.23	-0.22	-0.22	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.12	-0.10	-0.10	-0.09	-0.25	-0.16	-0.15	-0.14

Figure 10A. Macro Effects of a Severe Demand Shock with Type 2 Hysteresis Under Different Policies

	Federal funds rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real GDP response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Unemployment rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Household employment response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	4-quarter PCE inflation response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points
2000Q1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2001Q1	-0.63	-1.06	-1.38	-1.71	-1.92	-2.74	-2.87	-2.90	-2.04	-2.04	-2.04	-2.04	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96	-1.01	-1.02	-1.02	-1.02	-0.05	0.02	0.02	0.02
2001Q2	-1.38	-2.07	-2.58	-3.10	-1.97	-2.79	-2.92	-2.93	-3.28	-3.17	-3.13	-3.11	1.71	1.66	1.64	1.62	-1.94	-1.89	-1.87	-1.85	-0.12	0.05	0.07	0.06
2001Q3	-2.27	-2.89	-3.39	-3.61	-2.00	-2.80	-2.92	-2.92	-4.83	-4.59	-4.53	-4.48	2.63	2.52	2.48	2.44	-3.08	-2.95	-2.91	-2.87	-0.21	0.10	0.13	0.11
2001Q4	-3.25	-3.42	-3.60	-3.63	-2.00	-2.79	-2.89	-2.89	-6.27	-5.91	-5.82	-5.76	3.53	3.38	3.32	3.29	-4.24	-4.06	-4.00	-3.95	-0.31	0.15	0.20	0.17
2002Q1	-3.63	-3.58	-3.61	-3.64	-1.97	-2.76	-2.86	-2.86	-7.52	-7.07	-6.97	-6.91	4.24	4.06	4.02	3.99	-5.22	-5.01	-4.95	-4.92	-0.38	0.19	0.25	0.21
2002Q2	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.64	-1.93	-2.73	-2.83	-2.83	-8.32	-7.79	-7.68	-7.63	4.54	4.36	4.32	4.30	-5.78	-5.54	-5.49	-5.47	-0.44	0.20	0.27	0.23
2002Q3	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.65	-1.89	-2.69	-2.79	-2.79	-8.72	-8.12	-8.01	-7.96	4.53	4.34	4.30	4.28	-5.95	-5.70	-5.65	-5.62	-0.49	0.20	0.28	0.23
2002Q4	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.65	-1.85	-2.66	-2.76	-2.76	-8.72	-8.04	-7.93	-7.88	4.26	4.03	4.00	3.98	-5.78	-5.49	-5.44	-5.41	-0.53	0.19	0.27	0.22
2003Q1	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.66	-1.81	-2.62	-2.72	-2.72	-8.59	-7.84	-7.71	-7.66	3.91	3.66	3.62	3.60	-5.47	-5.15	-5.09	-5.06	-0.58	0.18	0.26	0.21
2003Q2	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.66	-1.77	-2.59	-2.68	-2.68	-8.35	-7.52	-7.38	-7.33	3.55	3.27	3.23	3.21	-5.10	-4.74	-4.68	-4.65	-0.63	0.15	0.23	0.18
2003Q3	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.74	-2.55	-2.65	-2.65	-8.06	-7.15	-7.01	-6.95	3.22	2.92	2.87	2.85	-4.74	-4.34	-4.28	-4.25	-0.67	0.12	0.21	0.15
2003Q4	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.70	-2.51	-2.61	-2.61	-7.74	-6.74	-6.59	-6.54	2.92	2.59	2.53	2.51	-4.40	-3.96	-3.89	-3.86	-0.72	0.09	0.18	0.12
2004Q1	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.66	-2.48	-2.57	-2.57	-7.40	-6.32	-6.16	-6.10	2.65	2.28	2.23	2.20	-4.08	-3.59	-3.52	-3.48	-0.77	0.06	0.14	0.09
2004Q2	-3.63	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.62	-2.44	-2.54	-2.54	-7.06	-5.90	-5.73	-5.67	2.39	1.99	1.94	1.91	-3.77	-3.24	-3.16	-3.13	-0.81	0.02	0.11	0.05
2004Q3	-3.62	-3.59	-3.62	-3.67	-1.59	-2.40	-2.50	-2.50	-6.72	-5.47	-5.29	-5.22	2.15	1.73	1.67	1.64	-3.48	-2.91	-2.83	-2.79	-0.86	-0.01	0.08	0.02
2004Q4	-3.56	-3.59	-3.61	-3.67	-1.55	-2.37	-2.46	-2.46	-6.38	-5.04	-4.85	-4.78	1.92	1.47	1.41	1.38	-3.20	-2.59	-2.50	-2.46	-0.90	-0.04	0.05	-0.01
2005Q1	-3.45	-3.59	-3.61	-3.67	-1.51	-2.33	-2.42	-2.43	-6.05	-4.62	-4.41	-4.35	1.71	1.24	1.18	1.15	-2.94	-2.29	-2.19	-2.15	-0.94	-0.07	0.03	-0.04
2005Q2	-3.32	-3.59	-3.61	-3.67	-1.48	-2.29	-2.38	-2.39	-5.73	-4.20	-3.99	-3.92	1.52	1.03	0.96	0.93	-2.69	-2.00	-1.90	-1.85	-0.97	-0.09	0.00	-0.07
2005Q3	-3.17	-3.58	-3.61	-3.67	-1.45	-2.25	-2.35	-2.35	-5.42	-3.81	-3.59	-3.52	1.35	0.83	0.76	0.73	-2.46	-1.72	-1.62	-1.57	-1.00	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09
2005Q4	-3.03	-3.58	-3.61	-3.67	-1.43	-2.21	-2.31	-2.31	-5.13	-3.44	-3.22	-3.15	1.19	0.65	0.57	0.54	-2.25	-1.46	-1.36	-1.31	-1.03	-0.14	-0.04	-0.11
2006Q1	-2.90	-3.58	-3.61	-3.66	-1.41	-2.17	-2.27	-2.27	-4.90	-3.09	-2.85	-2.77	1.07	0.48	0.40	0.37	-2.07	-1.22	-1.11	-1.06	-1.06	-0.15	-0.06	-0.13
2006Q2	-2.79	-3.57	-3.61	-3.66	-1.40	-2.13	-2.22	-2.23	-4.70	-2.75	-2.49	-2.41	0.97	0.32	0.24	0.20	-1.91	-0.99	-0.87	-0.82	-1.08	-0.16	-0.07	-0.15
2006Q3	-2.70	-3.57	-3.60	-3.66	-1.39	-2.09	-2.18	-2.19	-4.53	-2.42	-2.15	-2.07	0.89	0.17	0.08	0.05	-1.77	-0.78	-0.65	-0.60	-1.09	-0.17	-0.08	-0.16
2006Q4	-2.62	-3.57	-3.60	-3.65	-1.38	-2.05	-2.14	-2.15	-4.38	-2.12	-1.82	-1.74	0.81	0.04	-0.06	-0.09	-1.66	-0.58	-0.45	-0.39	-1.10	-0.18	-0.08	-0.17
2007Q1	-2.57	-3.57	-3.60	-3.65	-1.37	-2.01	-2.09	-2.10	-4.24	-1.83	-1.52	-1.43	0.76	-0.08	-0.18	-0.22	-1.56	-0.41	-0.26	-0.21	-1.11	-0.18	-0.09	-0.17
2007Q2	-2.52	-3.56	-3.60	-3.65	-1.37	-1.96	-2.05	-2.06	-4.12	-1.56	-1.22	-1.13	0.71	-0.18	-0.30	-0.34	-1.47	-0.25	-0.09	-0.03	-1.12	-0.19	-0.09	-0.18
2007Q3	-2.49	-3.56	-3.60	-3.64	-1.36	-1.92	-2.00	-2.01	-4.01	-1.31	-0.95	-0.85	0.67	-0.28	-0.40	-0.44	-1.40	-0.10	0.06	0.12	-1.12	-0.18	-0.09	-0.18
2007Q4	-2.47	-3.56	-3.59	-3.64	-1.36	-1.87	-1.95	-1.96	-3.92	-1.07	-0.68	-0.59	0.64	-0.36	-0.49	-0.53	-1.34	0.02	0.20	0.26	-1.12	-0.18	-0.09	-0.18
2008Q1	-2.46	-3.55	-3.59	-3.63	-1.36	-1.82	-1.90	-1.92	-3.82	-0.84	-0.44	-0.33	0.62	-0.43	-0.56	-0.61	-1.29	0.14	0.32	0.39	-1.11	-0.18	-0.08	-0.18
2008Q2	-2.45	-3.54	-3.58	-3.63	-1.36	-1.77	-1.85	-1.87	-3.74	-0.64	-0.20	-0.09	0.61	-0.49	-0.63	-0.68	-1.25	0.23	0.43	0.50	-1.11	-0.17	-0.08	-0.18
2008Q3	-2.45	-3.53	-3.58	-3.63	-1.35	-1.72	-1.80	-1.82	-3.66	-0.44	0.02	0.14	0.60	-0.53	-0.68	-0.74	-1.22	0.32	0.53	0.60	-1.10	-0.16	-0.07	-0.17
2008Q4	-2.46	-3.50	-3.58	-3.62	-1.35	-1.66	-1.74	-1.76	-3.58	-0.26	0.22	0.35	0.59	-0.57	-0.73	-0.78	-1.19	0.39	0.62	0.69	-1.09	-0.16	-0.07	-0.17
2009Q1	-2.46	-3.42	-3.57	-3.62	-1.35	-1.61	-1.68	-1.71	-3.50	-0.10	0.42	0.55	0.59	-0.60	-0.77	-0.82	-1.17	0.45	0.69	0.77	-1.07	-0.15	-0.06	-0.16
2009Q2	-2.46	-3.30	-3.57	-3.62	-1.34	-1.56	-1.63	-1.65	-3.42	0.05	0.59	0.73	0.58	-0.62	-0.80	-0.85	-1.15	0.50	0.75	0.84	-1.06	-0.14	-0.05	-0.16
2009Q3	-2.47	-3.15	-3.56	-3.61	-1.34	-1.50	-1.56	-1.59	-3.35	0.19	0.75	0.90	0.58	-0.63	-0.82	-0.88	-1.14	0.53	0.81	0.90	-1.04	-0.13	-0.04	-0.16
2009Q4	-2.47	-2.98	-3.52	-3.61	-1.33	-1.46	-1.50	-1.53	-3.27	0.30	0.90	1.06	0.58	-0.62	-0.83	-0.89	-1.12	0.55	0.85	0.94	-1.03	-0.12	-0.04	-0.15
20010Q1	-2.47	-2.80	-3.41	-3.60	-1.33	-1.41	-1.44	-1.47	-3.20	0.40	1.03	1.20	0.59	-0.62	-0.83	-0.90	-1.11	0.56	0.88	0.98	-1.01	-0.11	-0.03	-0.15
20010Q2	-2.47	-2.62	-3.23	-3.60	-1.32	-1.37	-1.38	-1.41	-3.12	0.49	1.14	1.33	0.59	-0.60	-0.83	-0.91	-1.10	0.56	0.90	1.01	-0.99	-0.10	-0.03	-0.15
20010Q3	-2.47	-2.44	-3.00	-3.59	-1.31	-1.33	-1.32	-1.34	-3.04	0.56	1.24	1.43	0.59	-0.58	-0.81	-0.90	-1.09	0.55	0.90	1.03	-0.98	-0.10	-0.02	-0.15
20010Q4	-2.46	-2.26	-2.75	-3.59	-1.30	-1.30	-1.26	-1.28	-2.96	0.62	1.31	1.53	0.59	-0.56	-0.79	-0.89	-1.08	0.54	0.89	1.04	-0.96	-0.09	-0.02	-0.14
20011Q1	-2.45	-2.10	-2.48	-3.58	-1.29	-1.27	-1.22	-1.21	-2.88	0.68	1.36	1.60	0.59	-0.53	-0.75	-0.87	-1.07	0.52	0.86	1.04	-0.94	-0.08	-0.01	-0.14
20011Q2	-2.44	-1.96	-2.23	-3.56	-1.29	-1.24	-1.18	-1.14	-2.79	0.72	1.40	1.66	0.59	-0.50	-0.71	-0.85	-1.05	0.50	0.83	1.03	-0.92	-0.08	-0.01	-0.14
20011Q3	-2.42	-1.83	-1.98	-3.47	-1.28	-1.22	-1.14	-1.06	-2.71	0.76	1.42	1.70	0.59	-0.47	-0.67	-0.82	-1.04	0.47	0.79	1.01	-0.90	-0.07	-0.00	-0.14
20011Q4	-2.40	-1.72	-1.76	-3.22	-1.26	-1.20	-1.12	-0.99	-2.62	0.79	1.42	1.72	0.59	-0.44	-0.62	-0.78	-1.03	0.44	0.74	0.98	-0.88	-0.07	-0.00	-0.14
20012Q1	-2.38	-1.63	-1.57	-2.89	-1.25	-1.19	-1.09	-0.93	-2.54	0.82	1.42	1.72	0.58	-0.41	-0.57	-0.73	-1.01	0.41	0.69	0.93	-0.86	-0.06	-0.00	-0.15
20012Q2	-2.35	-1.56	-1.41	-2.53	-1.24	-1.17	-1.08	-0.87	-2.45	0.85	1.42	1.69	0.58	-0.38	-0.52	-0.67	-1.00	0.39	0.64	0.86	-0.85	-0.06	-0.00	-0.15
20012Q3	-2.32	-1.51	-1.28	-2.15	-1.23	-1.16	-1.07	-0.82	-2.36	0.87	1.40	1.64	0.57	-0.36	-0.48	-0.59	-0.98	0.36	0.59	0.78	-0.83	-0.06	-0.00	-0.15
20012Q4	-2.29	-1.48	-1.18	-1.78	-1.22	-1.15	-1.06	-0.78	-2.27	0.90	1.39	1.56	0.57	-0.33	-0.44	-0.51	-0.97	0.34	0.54	0.69	-0.81	-0.06	-0.00	-0.15
20013Q1	-2.26	-1.47	-1.12	-1.44	-1.21	-1.14	-1.05	-0.75	-2.19	0.92	1.38	1.47	0.56	-0.31	-0.39	-0.43	-0.95	0.31	0.49	0.59	-0.79	-0.06	-0.00	-0.15
20013Q2	-2.22	-1.47	-1.09	-1.13	-1.20	-1.13	-1.05	-0.74	-2.10	0.94	1.36	1.37	0.55	-0.29	-0.36	-0.34	-0.93	0.29	0.45	0.48	-0.77	-0.06	-0.00	-0.16
20013Q3	-2.18	-1.50	-1.09	-0.87	-1.19	-1.12	-1.05	-0.73	-2.01	0.97	1.35	1.27	0.55	-0.28	-0.32	-0.26	-0.91	0.28	0.41	0.38	-0.75	-0.06	-0.01	-0.16
20013Q4	-2.14	-1.53	-1.12	-0.64	-1.18	-1.11	-1.05	-0.73	-1.92	0.99	1.34	1.16	0.54	-0.26	-0.29	-0.18	-0.89	0.26	0.37	0.27	-0.73	-0.06	-0.01	-0.16

Figure 10B. Supply-Side Effects of a Severe Demand Shock With Type 2 Hysteresis Under Different Policies

	Potential GDP response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Potential GDP response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Potential GDP response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Potential GDP response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Capital services response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multi-factor productivity response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multifactor productivity response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multifactor productivity response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend multifactor productivity response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Natural unemployment rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Natural unemployment rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Natural unemployment rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Natural unemployment rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend labor force participation rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Trend NFB labor input response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Trend NFB labor input response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend NFB labor input response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Trend NFB labor input response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent
2000Q1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2001Q1	-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.05	-0.21	-0.20	-0.20	-0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01
2001Q2	-0.18	-0.17	-0.17	-0.17	-0.65	-0.63	-0.62	-0.62	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02
2001Q3	-0.44	-0.42	-0.42	-0.42	-1.29	-1.24	-1.23	-1.23	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10
2001Q4	-0.82	-0.79	-0.78	-0.77	-2.10	-2.02	-2.00	-2.00	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.06	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.24	-0.23	-0.23	-0.22
2002Q1	-1.28	-1.22	-1.21	-1.20	-3.02	-2.90	-2.87	-2.87	-0.24	-0.23	-0.22	-0.22	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.12	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10	-0.09	-0.41	-0.39	-0.39	-0.38
2002Q2	-1.78	-1.71	-1.69	-1.68	-4.00	-3.82	-3.78	-3.77	-0.36	-0.35	-0.34	-0.34	0.19	0.18	0.18	0.18	-0.16	-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.60	-0.57	-0.56	-0.56
2002Q3	-2.29	-2.19	-2.16	-2.15	-4.96	-4.72	-4.68	-4.66	-0.49	-0.47	-0.46	-0.46	0.25	0.24	0.24	0.24	-0.21	-0.20	-0.20	-0.20	-0.78	-0.75	-0.74	-0.73
2002Q4	-2.76	-2.63	-2.61	-2.59	-5.85	-5.55	-5.50	-5.48	-0.60	-0.58	-0.57	-0.57	0.31	0.29	0.29	0.29	-0.26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.24	-0.94	-0.90	-0.89	-0.88
2003Q1	-3.18	-3.02	-2.99	-2.97	-6.65	-6.28	-6.21	-6.20	-0.71	-0.67	-0.67	-0.66	0.35	0.33	0.33	0.33	-0.30	-0.29	-0.29	-0.28	-1.07	-1.01	-1.00	-1.00
2003Q2	-3.53	-3.33	-3.29	-3.28	-7.35	-6.90	-6.82	-6.80	-0.79	-0.75	-0.74	-0.74	0.38	0.36	0.36	0.35	-0.34	-0.32	-0.32	-0.32	-1.16	-1.10	-1.09	-1.08
2003Q3	-3.81	-3.57	-3.53	-3.52	-7.94	-7.39	-7.30	-7.28	-0.86	-0.82	-0.81	-0.80	0.40	0.38	0.37	0.37	-0.37	-0.35	-0.35	-0.34	-1.22	-1.15	-1.14	-1.13
2003Q4	-4.03	-3.75	-3.70	-3.69	-8.42	-7.77	-7.66	-7.64	-0.92	-0.86	-0.85	-0.85	0.41	0.39	0.38	0.38	-0.39	-0.37	-0.37	-0.36	-1.26	-1.18	-1.16	-1.16
2004Q1	-4.19	-3.87	-3.81	-3.80	-8.80	-8.04	-7.91	-7.89	-0.96	-0.90	-0.89	-0.88	0.42	0.39	0.38	0.38	-0.41	-0.39	-0.38	-0.38	-1.28	-1.19	-1.17	-1.16
2004Q2	-4.31	-3.93	-3.87	-3.85	-9.08	-8.19	-8.05	-8.03	-0.99	-0.92	-0.91	-0.90	0.41	0.38	0.38	0.37	-0.43	-0.40	-0.39	-0.39	-1.28	-1.18	-1.16	-1.15
2004Q3	-4.38	-3.94	-3.87	-3.84	-9.27	-8.25	-8.10	-8.07	-1.01	-0.93	-0.91	-0.90	0.41	0.37	0.36	0.36	-0.44	-0.40	-0.39	-0.39	-1.27	-1.14	-1.12	-1.11
2004Q4	-4.41	-3.89	-3.80	-3.78	-9.38	-8.23	-8.05	-8.03	-1.02	-0.92	-0.90	-0.89	0.40	0.35	0.34	0.34	-0.44	-0.40	-0.39	-0.38	-1.24	-1.09	-1.06	-1.05
2005Q1	-4.40	-3.79	-3.69	-3.67	-9.43	-8.12	-7.93	-7.90	-1.02	-0.90	-0.87	-0.86	0.38	0.32	0.31	0.31	-0.44	-0.39	-0.38	-0.37	-1.20	-1.01	-0.98	-0.97
2005Q2	-4.34	-3.66	-3.56	-3.53	-9.41	-7.95	-7.73	-7.71	-1.01	-0.86	-0.84	-0.83	0.36	0.29	0.28	0.28	-0.43	-0.37	-0.36	-0.36	-1.14	-0.93	-0.90	-0.89
2005Q3	-4.25	-3.51	-3.40	-3.37	-9.34	-7.72	-7.48	-7.45	-0.98	-0.83	-0.81	-0.80	0.33	0.26	0.25	0.25	-0.42	-0.36	-0.35	-0.34	-1.07	-0.85	-0.82	-0.81
2005Q4	-4.14	-3.35	-3.24	-3.21	-9.22	-7.44	-7.18	-7.15	-0.95	-0.80	-0.78	-0.77	0.30	0.24	0.23	0.22	-0.41	-0.34	-0.33	-0.33	-0.99	-0.78	-0.75	-0.74
2006Q1	-4.02	-3.18	-3.07	-3.05	-9.07	-7.11	-6.84	-6.81	-0.92	-0.76	-0.74	-0.73	0.27	0.21	0.20	0.20	-0.39	-0.33	-0.32	-0.32	-0.91	-0.71	-0.69	-0.68
2006Q2	-3.88	-3.02	-2.90	-2.88	-8.88	-6.76	-6.46	-6.43	-0.88	-0.73	-0.71	-0.70	0.25	0.19	0.18	0.18	-0.38	-0.32	-0.31	-0.30	-0.84	-0.65	-0.63	-0.62
2006Q3	-3.75	-2.85	-2.73	-2.71	-8.68	-6.38	-6.06	-6.02	-0.85	-0.70	-0.69	-0.68	0.22	0.17	0.17	0.16	-0.36	-0.30	-0.29	-0.29	-0.78	-0.60	-0.58	-0.57
2006Q4	-3.62	-2.68	-2.56	-2.54	-8.46	-5.98	-5.63	-5.60	-0.81	-0.68	-0.66	-0.65	0.20	0.15	0.15	0.15	-0.35	-0.29	-0.28	-0.28	-0.72	-0.55	-0.54	-0.52
2007Q1	-3.49	-2.52	-2.39	-2.36	-8.23	-5.56	-5.19	-5.16	-0.78	-0.65	-0.63	-0.62	0.18	0.14	0.13	0.13	-0.34	-0.28	-0.27	-0.27	-0.67	-0.51	-0.49	-0.48
2007Q2	-3.36	-2.35	-2.21	-2.19	-7.99	-5.13	-4.74	-4.71	-0.75	-0.62	-0.60	-0.59	0.16	0.12	0.12	0.12	-0.32	-0.27	-0.26	-0.26	-0.62	-0.48	-0.45	-0.44
2007Q3	-3.23	-2.18	-2.04	-2.01	-7.74	-4.70	-4.29	-4.25	-0.72	-0.59	-0.57	-0.57	0.14	0.11	0.10	0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-0.25	-0.24	-0.58	-0.44	-0.42	-0.40
2007Q4	-3.11	-2.02	-1.86	-1.82	-7.49	-4.26	-3.83	-3.79	-0.69	-0.57	-0.54	-0.53	0.13	0.10	0.09	0.09	-0.30	-0.24	-0.23	-0.23	-0.54	-0.41	-0.38	-0.36
2008Q1	-2.99	-1.85	-1.67	-1.64	-7.24	-3.83	-3.37	-3.32	-0.66	-0.54	-0.51	-0.50	0.12	0.08	0.07	0.07	-0.28	-0.23	-0.22	-0.21	-0.51	-0.37	-0.34	-0.32
2008Q2	-2.87	-1.68	-1.49	-1.45	-6.99	-3.40	-2.91	-2.87	-0.63	-0.51	-0.48	-0.47	0.10	0.07	0.06	0.06	-0.27	-0.22	-0.21	-0.20	-0.48	-0.34	-0.30	-0.28
2008Q3	-2.76	-1.51	-1.31	-1.27	-6.74	-2.97	-2.46	-2.41	-0.61	-0.48	-0.44	-0.43	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.04	-0.26	-0.21	-0.19	-0.18	-0.45	-0.31	-0.26	-0.24
2008Q4	-2.65	-1.35	-1.13	-1.08	-6.49	-2.55	-2.02	-1.97	-0.58	-0.45	-0.41	-0.39	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.25	-0.19	-0.18	-0.17	-0.43	-0.27	-0.22	-0.19
2009Q1	-2.54	-1.19	-0.95	-0.90	-6.25	-2.15	-1.59	-1.53	-0.56	-0.42	-0.37	-0.36	0.07	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.24	-0.18	-0.16	-0.15	-0.41	-0.24	-0.18	-0.15
2009Q2	-2.44	-1.03	-0.78	-0.72	-6.01	-1.75	-1.16	-1.10	-0.53	-0.39	-0.34	-0.32	0.07	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.23	-0.17	-0.15	-0.14	-0.39	-0.21	-0.14	-0.11
2009Q3	-2.34	-0.88	-0.61	-0.55	-5.77	-1.37	-0.76	-0.69	-0.51	-0.36	-0.31	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.22	-0.15	-0.13	-0.12	-0.37	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08
2009Q4	-2.24	-0.74	-0.45	-0.38	-5.53	-1.00	-0.36	-0.29	-0.49	-0.33	-0.27	-0.25	0.05	0.00	-0.02	-0.03	-0.21	-0.14	-0.12	-0.11	-0.36	-0.16	-0.08	-0.04
20010Q1	-2.14	-0.60	-0.29	-0.22	-5.30	-0.64	0.02	0.10	-0.47	-0.31	-0.24	-0.22	0.05	-0.00	-0.03	-0.04	-0.20	-0.13	-0.10	-0.09	-0.34	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01
20010Q2	-2.05	-0.47	-0.14	-0.07	-5.07	-0.30	0.38	0.47	-0.45	-0.28	-0.21	-0.18	0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.05	-0.19	-0.12	-0.09	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-0.02	0.02
20010Q3	-1.96	-0.35	-0.00	0.08	-4.84	0.02	0.73	0.82	-0.43	-0.26	-0.18	-0.15	0.04	-0.01	-0.05	-0.06	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.07	-0.32	-0.10	0.01	0.05
20010Q4	-1.87	-0.24	0.13	0.21	-4.62	0.32	1.06	1.16	-0.41	-0.24	-0.15	-0.12	0.03	-0.02	-0.05	-0.06	-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.31	-0.09	0.03	0.07
20011Q1	-1.78	-0.14	0.24	0.34	-4.40	0.61	1.37	1.48	-0.40	-0.22	-0.13	-0.10	0.03	-0.02	-0.06	-0.07	-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.30	-0.08	0.05	0.10
20011Q2	-1.70	-0.04	0.35	0.46	-4.18	0.87	1.66	1.78	-0.38	-0.21	-0.11	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	-0.06	-0.08	-0.16	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	-0.29	-0.07	0.06	0.12
20011Q3	-1.62	0.05	0.45	0.57	-3.97	1.13	1.93	2.06	-0.37	-0.19	-0.09	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	-0.06	-0.08	-0.16	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	-0.28	-0.06	0.07	0.13
20011Q4	-1.53	0.13	0.54	0.67	-3.76	1.36	2.17	2.32	-0.35	-0.18	-0.08	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	-0.06	-0.08	-0.15	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	-0.27	-0.06	0.08	0.14
20012Q1	-1.46	0.20	0.61	0.76	-3.55	1.58	2.40	2.57	-0.34	-0.17	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.06	-0.08	-0.14	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	-0.26	-0.05	0.08	0.15
20012Q2	-1.38	0.27	0.68	0.84	-3.35	1.79	2.61	2.79	-0.32	-0.16	-0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	-0.06	-0.08	-0.14	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	-0.26	-0.05	0.08	0.16
20012Q3	-1.31	0.33	0.74	0.90	-3.15	1.98	2.80	2.98	-0.31	-0.15	-0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.06	-0.08	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	-0.25	-0.05	0.08	0.16
20012Q4	-1.23	0.39	0.79	0.95	-2.95	2.16	2.97	3.16	-0.29	-0.14	-0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.05	-0.08	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	-0.24	-0.05	0.07	0.15
20013Q1	-1.16	0.45	0.83	0.99	-2.76	2.33	3.12	3.31	-0.28	-0.13	-0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.05	-0.07	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	-0.24	-0.04	0.07	0.14
20013Q2	-1.09	0.50	0.87	1.02	-2.57	2.49	3.27	3.43	-0.27	-0.12	-0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.02	-0.05	-0.07	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.23	-0.04	0.06	0.13
20013Q3	-1.02	0.55	0.91	1.04	-2.38	2.65	3.40	3.54	-0.26	-0.12	-0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.02	-0.04	-0.06	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.22	-0.04	0.06	0.12
20013Q4	-0.96	0.59	0.94	1.06	-2.19	2.79	3.51	3.62	-0.25	-0.11	-0.02	0.03	0.01	-0.02	-0.04	-0.06	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.22	-0.04	0.05	0.11

Figure 11. Macro Effects of a Severe Demand Shock Without Hysteresis Under Different Policies

	Federal funds rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Federal funds rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real 10-year Treasury yield response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Real GDP response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Real GDP response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Unemployment rate response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Unemployment rate response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	Household employment response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	Household employment response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percent	4-quarter PCE inflation response under the inertial policy rule deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with U* targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with E** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points	4-quarter PCE inflation response under OC policy with Y** targeting deviation from baseline in percentage points
2000Q1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000Q4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2001Q1	-0.66	-1.11	-1.31	-1.53	-1.84	-2.66	-2.69	-2.71	-2.03	-2.03	-2.03	-2.03	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.96	-1.02	-1.02	-1.02	-1.02	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02
2001Q2	-1.46	-2.15	-2.50	-2.87	-1.89	-2.71	-2.74	-2.75	-3.19	-3.11	-3.10	-3.09	1.70	1.66	1.65	1.65	-1.94	-1.89	-1.88	-1.87	-0.27	-0.06	-0.06	-0.06
2001Q3	-2.47	-3.00	-3.34	-3.55	-1.92	-2.73	-2.75	-2.75	-4.64	-4.44	-4.42	-4.40	2.64	2.54	2.52	2.50	-3.08	-2.98	-2.95	-2.93	-0.48	-0.10	-0.11	-0.10
2001Q4	-3.62	-3.51	-3.59	-3.58	-1.93	-2.73	-2.73	-2.73	-5.90	-5.62	-5.58	-5.57	3.56	3.43	3.40	3.38	-4.25	-4.10	-4.07	-4.05	-0.72	-0.16	-0.16	-0.16
2002Q1	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.58	-1.91	-2.71	-2.71	-2.70	-6.94	-6.60	-6.57	-6.56	4.28	4.15	4.13	4.13	-5.23	-5.07	-5.04	-5.03	-0.88	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19
2002Q2	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.88	-2.69	-2.69	-2.68	-7.51	-7.11	-7.09	-7.08	4.63	4.49	4.48	4.48	-5.78	-5.61	-5.59	-5.59	-1.00	-0.22	-0.22	-0.22
2002Q3	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.86	-2.66	-2.66	-2.66	-7.67	-7.22	-7.20	-7.20	4.66	4.50	4.50	4.50	-5.95	-5.75	-5.75	-5.75	-1.09	-0.25	-0.26	-0.25
2002Q4	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.84	-2.64	-2.64	-2.64	-7.41	-6.91	-6.89	-6.90	4.41	4.23	4.23	4.23	-5.75	-5.53	-5.53	-5.53	-1.17	-0.28	-0.28	-0.28
2003Q1	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.82	-2.62	-2.62	-2.62	-7.04	-6.48	-6.47	-6.47	4.08	3.89	3.88	3.89	-5.40	-5.16	-5.15	-5.16	-1.23	-0.31	-0.31	-0.31
2003Q2	-3.63	-3.60	-3.62	-3.59	-1.81	-2.60	-2.60	-2.60	-6.57	-5.96	-5.95	-5.96	3.75	3.53	3.53	3.53	-5.01	-4.74	-4.73	-4.74	-1.28	-0.33	-0.34	-0.33
2003Q3	-3.63	-3.60	-3.62	-3.59	-1.79	-2.58	-2.58	-2.57	-6.06	-5.40	-5.40	-5.41	3.44	3.20	3.20	3.21	-4.62	-4.32	-4.32	-4.32	-1.32	-0.35	-0.36	-0.35
2003Q4	-3.63	-3.60	-3.62	-3.59	-1.77	-2.55	-2.55	-2.55	-5.54	-4.83	-4.83	-4.84	3.16	2.90	2.90	2.90	-4.25	-3.92	-3.92	-3.93	-1.36	-0.36	-0.37	-0.37
2004Q1	-3.63	-3.60	-3.62	-3.59	-1.75	-2.53	-2.53	-2.53	-5.03	-4.27	-4.27	-4.28	2.91	2.62	2.62	2.62	-3.92	-3.55	-3.55	-3.56	-1.39	-0.37	-0.38	-0.38
2004Q2	-3.63	-3.60	-3.62	-3.59	-1.74	-2.51	-2.51	-2.50	-4.52	-3.72	-3.72	-3.73	2.67	2.35	2.35	2.36	-3.60	-3.20	-3.20	-3.21	-1.41	-0.38	-0.39	-0.38
2004Q3	-3.63	-3.60	-3.62	-3.59	-1.72	-2.48	-2.48	-2.48	-4.03	-3.19	-3.19	-3.21	2.44	2.10	2.10	2.11	-3.29	-2.87	-2.86	-2.87	-1.43	-0.38	-0.38	-0.38
2004Q4	-3.63	-3.60	-3.62	-3.59	-1.71	-2.46	-2.45	-2.46	-3.56	-2.68	-2.68	-2.70	2.22	1.86	1.86	1.86	-3.00	-2.54	-2.54	-2.55	-1.44	-0.37	-0.38	-0.37
2005Q1	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.69	-2.43	-2.43	-2.43	-3.11	-2.20	-2.21	-2.22	2.01	1.62	1.62	1.63	-2.72	-2.23	-2.23	-2.24	-1.45	-0.36	-0.37	-0.36
2005Q2	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.67	-2.40	-2.40	-2.40	-2.69	-1.76	-1.76	-1.78	1.80	1.39	1.39	1.40	-2.45	-1.93	-1.93	-1.94	-1.45	-0.34	-0.35	-0.35
2005Q3	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.65	-2.37	-2.37	-2.37	-2.30	-1.34	-1.35	-1.36	1.60	1.17	1.18	1.19	-2.19	-1.64	-1.64	-1.66	-1.44	-0.32	-0.33	-0.33
2005Q4	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.63	-2.34	-2.34	-2.34	-1.94	-0.96	-0.97	-0.98	1.41	0.97	0.97	0.98	-1.94	-1.36	-1.37	-1.38	-1.44	-0.30	-0.31	-0.30
2006Q1	-3.63	-3.60	-3.61	-3.59	-1.61	-2.31	-2.31	-2.31	-1.67	-0.61	-0.62	-0.64	1.26	0.77	0.77	0.78	-1.73	-1.10	-1.11	-1.12	-1.42	-0.28	-0.28	-0.28
2006Q2	-3.63	-3.59	-3.61	-3.59	-1.59	-2.27	-2.27	-2.27	-1.44	-0.30	-0.31	-0.32	1.12	0.58	0.59	0.60	-1.54	-0.86	-0.86	-0.87	-1.41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.25
2006Q3	-3.60	-3.59	-3.61	-3.58	-1.57	-2.24	-2.23	-2.24	-1.26	-0.01	-0.02	-0.04	1.00	0.41	0.41	0.42	-1.37	-0.62	-0.63	-0.64	-1.39	-0.22	-0.23	-0.22
2006Q4	-3.54	-3.59	-3.60	-3.58	-1.54	-2.20	-2.19	-2.20	-1.12	0.25	0.23	0.22	0.89	0.25	0.25	0.26	-1.23	-0.40	-0.41	-0.42	-1.37	-0.19	-0.19	-0.19
2007Q1	-3.46	-3.59	-3.60	-3.58	-1.52	-2.16	-2.15	-2.16	-1.00	0.48	0.46	0.45	0.81	0.09	0.10	0.11	-1.10	-0.20	-0.20	-0.21	-1.34	-0.15	-0.16	-0.16
2007Q2	-3.37	-3.59	-3.60	-3.58	-1.50	-2.11	-2.11	-2.12	-0.92	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.74	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-1.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	-1.32	-0.12	-0.13	-0.12
2007Q3	-3.27	-3.58	-3.60	-3.57	-1.48	-2.07	-2.06	-2.07	-0.87	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.68	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.92	0.17	0.16	0.15	-1.29	-0.09	-0.10	-0.09
2007Q4	-3.17	-3.58	-3.59	-3.57	-1.46	-2.02	-2.02	-2.02	-0.83	1.02	1.01	1.00	0.63	-0.29	-0.28	-0.28	-0.86	0.32	0.32	0.31	-1.27	-0.06	-0.07	-0.06
2008Q1	-3.07	-3.58	-3.59	-3.57	-1.44	-1.97	-1.97	-1.97	-0.82	1.16	1.14	1.14	0.60	-0.40	-0.39	-0.38	-0.81	0.47	0.46	0.45	-1.24	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03
2008Q2	-2.99	-3.57	-3.59	-3.56	-1.43	-1.92	-1.91	-1.92	-0.82	1.27	1.26	1.25	0.58	-0.49	-0.48	-0.48	-0.77	0.59	0.59	0.58	-1.21	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00
2008Q3	-2.90	-3.57	-3.58	-3.56	-1.41	-1.87	-1.86	-1.87	-0.83	1.37	1.35	1.35	0.57	-0.57	-0.56	-0.56	-0.75	0.71	0.70	0.69	-1.19	0.02	0.02	0.02
2008Q4	-2.83	-3.56	-3.58	-3.55	-1.40	-1.81	-1.80	-1.81	-0.86	1.44	1.43	1.43	0.56	-0.64	-0.63	-0.63	-0.74	0.81	0.79	0.79	-1.16	0.05	0.04	0.05
2009Q1	-2.77	-3.56	-3.57	-3.55	-1.39	-1.75	-1.74	-1.75	-0.89	1.50	1.49	1.49	0.56	-0.70	-0.69	-0.69	-0.74	0.89	0.88	0.88	-1.13	0.07	0.06	0.07
2009Q2	-2.71	-3.55	-3.57	-3.55	-1.37	-1.69	-1.68	-1.69	-0.92	1.55	1.53	1.54	0.56	-0.75	-0.74	-0.74	-0.74	0.96	0.95	0.95	-1.10	0.09	0.08	0.09
2009Q3	-2.66	-3.52	-3.56	-3.54	-1.36	-1.63	-1.62	-1.63	-0.96	1.57	1.55	1.56	0.57	-0.79	-0.78	-0.78	-0.75	1.02	1.00	1.01	-1.08	0.11	0.10	0.11
2009Q4	-2.62	-3.43	-3.52	-3.53	-1.35	-1.56	-1.55	-1.57	-0.99	1.58	1.56	1.58	0.58	-0.82	-0.81	-0.81	-0.76	1.06	1.05	1.05	-1.05	0.13	0.12	0.13
20010Q1	-2.58	-3.28	-3.40	-3.51	-1.34	-1.50	-1.48	-1.50	-1.03	1.58	1.56	1.58	0.59	-0.83	-0.83	-0.83	-0.77	1.09	1.07	1.08	-1.03	0.14	0.13	0.14
20010Q2	-2.55	-3.09	-3.21	-3.42	-1.33	-1.44	-1.42	-1.43	-1.06	1.56	1.54	1.56	0.60	-0.84	-0.83	-0.85	-0.78	1.10	1.09	1.10	-1.00	0.15	0.14	0.15
20010Q3	-2.52	-2.88	-2.97	-3.23	-1.32	-1.38	-1.36	-1.36	-1.09	1.52	1.50	1.53	0.61	-0.83	-0.82	-0.85	-0.80	1.09	1.08	1.11	-0.98	0.16	0.15	0.16
20010Q4	-2.49	-2.66	-2.71	-2.95	-1.31	-1.32	-1.30	-1.30	-1.11	1.47	1.45	1.49	0.62	-0.81	-0.80	-0.83	-0.81	1.07	1.06	1.10	-0.96	0.16	0.16	0.17
20011Q1	-2.46	-2.43	-2.44	-2.64	-1.31	-1.28	-1.25	-1.24	-1.14	1.40	1.38	1.42	0.63	-0.79	-0.77	-0.80	-0.83	1.04	1.03	1.07	-0.94	0.17	0.16	0.17
20011Q2	-2.44	-2.21	-2.17	-2.32	-1.30	-1.23	-1.21	-1.19	-1.15	1.33	1.30	1.34	0.64	-0.75	-0.74	-0.77	-0.84	1.00	0.98	1.02	-0.91	0.17	0.16	0.17
20011Q3	-2.41	-2.01	-1.93	-2.00	-1.29	-1.20	-1.17	-1.15	-1.17	1.25	1.21	1.25	0.65	-0.72	-0.69	-0.72	-0.85	0.96	0.93	0.96	-0.89	0.17	0.16	0.17
20011Q4	-2.39	-1.83	-1.70	-1.71	-1.27	-1.16	-1.14	-1.11	-1.18	1.17	1.12	1.15	0.66	-0.67	-0.65	-0.67	-0.86	0.90	0.87	0.90	-0.87	0.17	0.16	0.17
20012Q1	-2.36	-1.67	-1.51	-1.45	-1.26	-1.14	-1.12	-1.09	-1.18	1.08	1.03	1.05	0.66	-0.63	-0.60	-0.61	-0.86	0.85	0.81	0.82	-0.85	0.16	0.16	0.17
20012Q2	-2.34	-1.54	-1.35	-1.23	-1.25	-1.12	-1.10	-1.07	-1.18	1.00	0.94	0.94	0.66	-0.59	-0.55	-0.55	-0.87	0.79	0.74	0.75	-0.84	0.16	0.15	0.16
20012Q3	-2.31	-1.43	-1.23	-1.05	-1.24	-1.10	-1.09	-1.06	-1.18	0.92	0.85	0.84	0.66	-0.54	-0.50	-0.49	-0.87	0.73	0.68	0.68	-0.82	0.15	0.14	0.15
20012Q4	-2.28	-1.35	-1.14	-0.92	-1.23	-1.08	-1.08	-1.06	-1.17	0.84	0.76	0.74	0.66	-0.50	-0.45	-0.44	-0.87	0.68	0.62	0.60	-0.80	0.14	0.14	0.15
20013Q1	-2.25	-1.29	-1.09	-0.83	-1.22	-1.07	-1.07	-1.05	-1.16	0.76	0.69	0.65	0.66	-0.46	-0.41	-0.39	-0.86	0.62	0.56	0.54	-0.78	0.13	0.13	0.14
20013Q2	-2.22	-1.27	-1.07	-0.79	-1.21	-1.06	-1.07	-1.06	-1.14	0.69	0.62	0.58	0.65	-0.42	-0.37	-0.34	-0.86	0.57	0.51	0.48	-0.76	0.12	0.12	0.13
20013Q3	-2.18	-1.26	-1.08	-0.79	-1.20	-1.05	-1.06	-1.06	-1.13	0.63	0.56	0.51	0.65	-0.38	-0.34	-0.30	-0.85	0.52	0.46	0.42	-0.75	0.11	0.10	0.12
20013Q4	-2.15	-1.28	-1.12	-0.83	-1.19	-1.04	-1.06	-1.07	-1.11	0.57	0.50	0.45	0.64	-0.35	-0.31	-0.27	-0.84	0.48	0.42	0.37	-0.73	0.09	0.09	0.10

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