Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for figures for 2017-020

Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach

Data for figures

Figure 1. Historical Root Mean Squared Prediction Errors Averaged Across Forecasters, in percentage points

Source: Authors' calculations, using data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Federal Reserve Board, and forecasts made by the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Board staff, the Congressional Budget Office, the Administration , and private forecasters as reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Forecast horizon in quarters Real GDP, Q4 over Q4 percent change, 1996-2015 sample period Real GDP, Q4 over Q4 percent change, 1988-2007 sample period Unemployment rate, Q4 average, 1996-2015 sample period Unemployment rate, Q4 average, 1988-2007 sample period Consumer price index, Q4 over Q4 percent change, 1996-2015 sample period Consumer price index, Q4 over Q4 percent change, 1988-2007 sample period 3-month Treasury bill rate, Q4 average, 1996-2015 sample period 3-month Treasury bill rate, Q4 average, 1988-2007 sample period
0 0.88 0.79 0.13 0.12 0.24 0.15 0.11 0.12
1 1.26 1.01 0.31 0.24 0.80 0.47 0.54 0.48
2 1.40 1.14 0.39 0.31 0.75 0.63 0.72 0.78
3 1.62 1.37 0.53 0.43 0.91 0.87 0.91 1.10
4 1.75 1.44 0.80 0.53 0.98 0.99 1.40 1.43
5 1.96 1.48 1.14 0.69 1.05 1.03 1.69 1.61
6 2.06 1.48 1.26 0.76 1.04 1.01 1.95 1.82
7 2.13 1.49 1.29 0.81 1.06 1.00 2.02 2.01
8 2.20 1.65 1.49 0.83 1.07 1.09 1.94 1.98
9 2.05 1.48 1.63 0.95 1.15 0.94 2.21 1.86
10 2.19 1.44 1.80 1.01 1.04 1.10 2.22 1.94
11 2.05 1.29 1.74 1.05 1.12 0.81 2.41 2.05
12 2.19 1.43 1.90 1.04 1.02 1.06 2.41 1.94
13 2.10 1.27 1.96 1.14 1.09 0.89 2.63 2.00
14 2.15 1.42 2.01 1.12 0.98 1.09 2.67 2.02
15 2.03 1.24 1.98 1.12 1.07 0.89 2.80 2.07


Figure 2. Tealbook Root Mean Squared Prediction Errors for Inflation and Short-Term Interest Rates, 1996 to 2015 sample period, in percentage points

Source: authors' calculations, using data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve Board, and forecasts made by the Federal Reserve Board staff.

Forecast horizon in quarters Consumer price index, Q4 over Q4 percent change Price index for personal consumption expenditures, Q4 over Q4 percent change 3-month Treasury bill rate, Q4 average Federal funds rate, Q4 average
0 0.07 0.19 0.06 0.14
1 0.63 0.53 0.41 0.38
2 0.90 0.77 0.68 0.62
3 0.87 0.73 0.84 0.82
4 1.03 0.87 1.38 1.39
5 1.12 0.98 1.64 1.69
6 1.12 1.05 1.90 1.96
7 1.16 1.08 1.94 2.00
8 1.10 1.06 2.07 2.17
9 1.17 1.03 2.31 2.43


Figure 3. Median September 2016 SEP Projections and Uncertainty About the Economic Outlook, in percent

Note: The lower and upper bounds of typical range of possible outcomes equal the median projections from the September 2017 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) plus (upper) or minus (lower) the average historical root mean squared prediction errors for each series at the appropriate forecast horizon. If future prediction errors are stable, unbiased and normally distributed, approximately 70 percent of future outcomes can be expected on average to fall within the upper and lower bounds, with remaining outcomes falling symmetrically above and below the bounds.

Source: Federal Reserve Board (Summary of Economic Projections, September 2016), and authors' calculations using data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Federal Reserve Board, and forecasts made by the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Board staff, the Congressional Budget Office, the Administration, and private forecasters as reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasts and Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Period Real GDP growth on a Q4 over Q4 basis, lower bound of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years Real GDP growth on a Q4 over Q4 basis, upper bound of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years Real GDP growth on a Q4 over Q4 basis, actual (before 2016) and median SEP projection (2016 and beyond) Unemployment rate, Q4 average, lower band of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years Unemployment rate, Q4 average, upper bound of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years Unemployment rate, Q4 average, actual (before 2016) and median SEP projection (2016 and beyond) PCE inflation on a Q4 over Q4 basis, lower bound of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years PCE inflation on a Q4 over Q4 basis, upper bound of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years PCE inflation on a Q4 over Q4 basis, actual (before 2016) and median SEP projection (2016 and beyond) Federal funds rate, endyear, lower band of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years Federal funds rate, endyear, upper bound of typical range of possible outcomes based on the accuracy of forecasts over the past 20 years Federal funds rate, endyear, actual (before 2016) and median SEP projection (2016 and beyond) Federal funds rate, endyear illustrative minimum value
2011     1.68     8.66     2.66     0.13 0.13
2012     1.28     7.81     1.76     0.13 0.13
2013     2.66     6.95     1.20     0.13 0.13
2014     2.49     5.70     1.23     0.13 0.13
2015     1.88     5.02     0.43     0.38 0.13
2016 0.54 3.06 1.80 4.49 5.11 4.80 0.50 2.10 1.30 0.06 1.14 0.60 0.13
2017 0.04 3.96 2.00 3.46 5.74 4.60 0.85 2.95 1.90 -0.59 2.79 1.10 0.13
2018 -0.05 4.05 2.00 2.87 6.13 4.50 0.85 3.15 2.00 -0.31 4.11 1.90 0.13
2019 -0.30 3.90 1.80 2.64 6.56 4.60 0.91 3.09 2.00 -0.03 5.23 2.60 0.13


Figure 4. Blue Chip Forecasts of Long-Run Conditions and Annual Shorter-Horizon Prediction Errors Made by the Average of Forecasts Released in the First Quarter, in percent

Note: Because of confidentiality restrictions, average errors are not calculated using Tealbook forecasts released after 2010.

Source: For the forecast errors, authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Federal Reserve Board and forecasts made by the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Board staff, the Congressional Budget Office, the Administration, and private forecasters as reported in the the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Blue Chip long-run projections are taken from the March and October releases of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, from Wolters Kluwer Legal and Regulatory Solutions, various releases.

Date of outcome for errors, date of forecast release for long-run Blue Chip projections Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4, current-year error Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4, one-year-ahead error Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4, two-year-ahead error Real GDP growth, Blue Chip long-run projection Unemployment rate, Q4 average, current-year error Unemployment rate, Q4 average, one-year-ahead error Unemployment rate, Q4 average, two-year-ahead error Unemployment rate, Blue Chip long-run projection CPI inflation, Q4 over Q4, current-year error CPI inflation, Q4 over Q4, one-year-ahead error CPI inflation, Q4 over Q4, two-year-ahead error CPI inflation, Blue Chip long-run projection Treasury bill rate, Q4 average, current-year error Treasury bill rate, Q4 average, one-year-ahead error Treasury bill rate, Q4 average, two-year-ahead error Treasury bill rate, Blue Chip long-run projection
1985 0.24 0.75 -0.30 3.20 0.10 0.05 -1.55 6.20 -0.25 -1.88 -1.65 4.30 -1.51 -2.76 -0.32 7.30
1986 -0.94 -0.16 0.51 3.20 0.20 -0.05 -0.35 6.20 -1.62 -2.84 -3.80 4.10 -1.43 -2.83 -2.82 6.60
1987 1.62 1.46 0.12 2.90 -0.78 -0.55 -0.60 6.00 0.44 0.42 -0.79 4.20 0.14 -1.07 -2.48 5.90
1988 1.59 0.65 0.75 2.70 -0.61 -1.15 -1.00 5.60 -0.11 0.07 -0.12 4.20 1.57 1.47 -0.03 6.10
1989 -0.08 0.19 0.68 2.70 -0.05 -0.50 -1.15 5.40 -0.32 -0.16 0.43 4.20 -1.15 0.90 2.11 6.40
1990 -1.16 -0.87 -0.48 2.60 0.49 0.20 -0.55 5.20 1.80 1.39 0.75 3.90 -0.74 -1.22 1.00 6.60
1991 -0.50 -1.60 -2.64 2.50 0.49 1.35 1.05 5.50 -0.77 -1.44 -0.22 4.00 -1.32 -3.35 -1.37 6.40
1992 1.72 1.21 0.73 2.40 0.51 1.30 1.95 5.90 -0.14 -0.66 -1.12 3.90 -1.08 -2.95 -3.52 5.80
1993 -0.46 -0.48 -0.23 2.60 -0.24 0.10 0.85 5.80 -0.20 -0.67 -0.95 3.50 -0.26 -1.41 -3.70 4.70
1994 1.03 1.00 1.07 2.60 -0.87 -0.85 -0.10 5.90 -0.39 -0.49 -1.14 3.30 1.50 1.51 -1.25 4.30
1995 -0.41 -0.55 -0.34 2.50 0.06 -0.75 -0.60 5.90 -0.63 -0.52 -0.39 3.40 -0.89 1.06 0.94 5.40
1996 1.99 1.99 0.81 2.30 -0.42 -0.50 -0.55 5.90 0.27 -0.17 -0.32 2.90 0.17 -0.87 0.56 5.00
1997 1.72 1.98 1.87 2.30 -0.58 -1.05 -1.00 5.60 -0.94 -1.07 -1.16 3.10 -0.04 0.19 -0.34 5.20
1998 2.33 2.56 2.08 2.50 -0.35 -0.85 -1.65 5.30 -0.52 -1.50 -1.40 2.70 -0.85 -1.22 -0.22 4.90
1999 1.68 2.06 2.09 2.50 -0.29 -0.85 -1.65 5.10 0.34 0.21 -0.81 2.60 0.63 -0.10 -0.31 4.80
2000 -0.62 0.72 1.81 3.10 -0.16 -0.70 -1.35 4.70 0.92 1.01 0.68 2.50 -0.09 1.55 0.87 5.20
2001 -2.06 -3.06 -1.28 3.30 0.79 1.25 -0.50 4.60 -0.60 -0.62 0.28 2.60 -2.70 -4.34 -1.25 5.20
2002 -0.96 -1.58 -1.00 3.10 -0.01 0.70 1.35 4.90 0.21 -0.19 -0.96 2.80 -0.98 -3.41 -3.79 4.60
2003 1.23 0.42 -0.62 3.20 -0.08 0.45 1.45 5.10 -0.11 -0.29 -0.38 2.60 -0.64 -2.86 -4.09 4.50
2004 -1.52 -0.93 0.21 3.10 -0.05 -0.10 0.20 5.10 1.62 1.29 0.08 2.50 0.67 -0.21 -3.23 4.30
2005 -0.83 -0.83 -0.18 3.20 -0.20 -0.25 -0.25 5.00 1.56 1.96 0.94 2.50 0.28 1.38 -1.30 4.40
2006 -1.32 -1.33 -0.73 3.00 -0.33 -0.60 -0.50 4.90 -0.31 -0.15 1.13 2.40 0.14 0.83 1.03 4.60
2007 -0.80 -1.36 -1.75 2.90 0.07 -0.10 -0.50 4.80 1.45 1.71 0.60 2.30 -1.51 -1.17 -0.14 4.70
2008 -3.99 -5.53 -3.57 2.70 1.47 1.95 0.85 4.80 -1.15 -0.68 1.59 2.30 -1.67 -4.50 -3.18 4.40
2009 1.16 -3.21 -5.77 2.60 0.92 4.45 4.40 5.50 1.15 -0.68 -2.61 2.50 -0.33 -2.27 -4.40 4.20
2010 -0.24 0.20 -0.76 2.60 -0.05 0.35 4.50 6.00 -0.42 -0.42 -0.61 2.40 -0.39 -0.71 -4.31 4.20
2011 -1.71 -1.64 -2.22 2.60 -0.14 0.15 0.85 5.60 1.51 1.76 1.21 2.40 -0.37 -1.21 -2.40 3.90
2012 -1.10 -1.79 -1.83 2.50 -0.39 -0.30 -0.05 5.80 0.03 0.09 0.32 2.50 -0.01 -1.71 -2.46 3.70
2013 0.20 0.43 -1.75 2.50 -0.50 -0.60 -0.15 5.60 -0.56 -0.75 -0.49 2.30 -0.06 -0.34 -2.64 3.60
2014 -0.37 -0.62 -0.89 2.40 -0.55 -1.40 -1.75 5.30 -0.70 -0.94 -0.33 2.30 -0.09 -0.28 -0.82 3.60
2015 -0.96 -1.40 -1.22 2.30 -0.19 -0.80 -1.60 5.10 -0.71 -1.65 -2.08 2.20 -0.50 -0.78 -0.50 3.40


Figure 5. Forecast Errors for Median SEP Projections Released in 2007-2009 and in 2010-2015, in percentage points

Note: the typical range of forecast errors at each horizon, based on the average accuracy of forecasts from 1996 to 2015, equals plus or minus one historical root mean squared prediction error (RMSE).

Source: authors' calculations, using data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Federal Reserve Board, and forecasts made by the FOMC, the Federal Reserve Board staff, the Congressional Budget Office, the Administration, and private forecasters as reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Date of SEP projection or sample period used to compute historical root mean squared error (RMSE) Series Error or historical RMSE Zero quarter ahead forecast horizon One quarter ahead forecast horizon Two quarters ahead forecast horizon Three quarters ahead forecast horizon Four quarters ahead forecast horizon Five quarters ahead forecast horizon Six quarters ahead forecast horizon Seven quarters ahead forecast horizon Eight quarters ahead forecast horizon Nine quarters ahead forecast horizon Ten quarters ahead forecast horizon Eleven quarters ahead forecast horizon Twelve quarters ahead forecast horizon Thirteen quarters ahead forecast horizon Fourteen quarters ahead forecast horizon Fifteen quarters ahead forecast horizon
Oct-07 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error -0.58       -4.92       -2.74       0.18      
Jan-08 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       -4.42       -2.64       -0.02        
Apr-08 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -3.52       -2.64       -0.12          
Jun-08 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -4.07       -2.64       -0.02          
Oct-08 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error -2.92       -0.69       -0.02       -1.52      
Jan-08 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       0.66       -0.17       -2.72        
Apr-09 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     1.41       0.23       -2.47          
Jun-09 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     1.01       0.03       -2.52          
Oct-09 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error 0.01       -0.27       -2.27       -2.88      
Jan-10 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.42       -2.27       -2.73        
Apr-10 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.72       -2.27       -2.73          
Jun-10 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.52       -2.17       -2.73          
Oct-10 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error 0.28       -1.62       -2.78       -1.39      
Jan-11 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       -1.97       -2.68       -1.49        
Apr-11 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -1.52       -2.58       -1.24          
Jun-11 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -1.12       -2.23       -1.19          
Oct-11 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error 0.03       -1.43       -0.59       -0.96      
Jan-12 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       -1.18       -0.34       -1.16        
Apr-12 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -1.38       -0.24       -0.86          
Jun-12 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.88       0.16       -0.76          
Sep-12 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error   -0.58       -0.09       -0.91       -1.52    
Dec-12 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error -0.48       0.01       -0.76       -1.47      
Mar-13 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       0.11       -0.66       -1.42        
Jun-13 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     0.21       -0.76       -1.37          
Sep-13 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error   0.51       -0.51       -1.37            
Dec-13 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error 0.41       -0.51       -1.32              
Mar-14 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.41       -1.22                
Jun-14 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     0.29       -1.22                  
Sep-14 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error   0.39       -0.92                    
Dec-14 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error 0.14       -0.92                      
Mar-15 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.62                        
Jun-15 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.02                          
Sep-15 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error   -0.27                            
Dec-15 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 error -0.22                              
Oct-07 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error 0.05       2.04       5.09       4.74      
Jan-08 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       1.64       4.79       4.54        
Apr-08 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     1.29       4.49       4.34          
Jun-08 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     1.29       4.39       4.24          
Oct-08 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error 0.49       2.59       2.64       2.61      
Jan-08 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       1.29       1.39       1.56        
Apr-09 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     0.54       0.29       0.56          
Jun-09 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     -0.01       -0.11       0.06          
Oct-09 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error -0.06       0.04       0.26       0.66      
Jan-10 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       -0.06       0.31       0.76        
Apr-10 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     0.24       0.36       0.76          
Jun-10 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     0.19       0.16       0.51          
Oct-10 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error -0.06       -0.34       -0.14       -0.20      
Jan-11 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       -0.24       -0.04       -0.05        
Apr-11 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     0.11       0.06       -0.05          
Jun-11 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     -0.09       -0.19       -0.30          
Oct-11 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error -0.39       -0.79       -1.05       -1.55      
Jan-12 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       -0.54       -0.80       -1.45        
Apr-12 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     -0.09       -0.55       -1.35          
Jun-12 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     -0.29       -0.80       -1.65          
Sep-12 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error   -0.29       -0.80       -1.30       -1.38    
Dec-12 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error -0.04       -0.60       -1.35       -1.28      
Mar-13 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       -0.45       -1.15       -1.23        
Jun-13 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     -0.30       -0.95       -0.98          
Sep-13 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error   -0.25       -0.90       -1.03            
Dec-13 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error -0.10       -0.75       -0.93              
Mar-14 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       -0.50       -0.73                
Jun-14 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     -0.35       -0.53                  
Sep-14 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error   -0.25       -0.48                    
Dec-14 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error -0.10       -0.23                      
Mar-15 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error       -0.08                        
Jun-15 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error     -0.23                          
Sep-15 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error   -0.03                            
Dec-15 Unemployment rate, Q4 average error 0.02                              
Oct-07 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error 0.39       -0.48       -0.65       -0.46      
Jan-08 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.78       -0.65       -0.56        
Apr-08 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     -1.78       -0.90       -0.61          
Jun-08 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     -2.53       -0.95       -0.61          
Oct-08 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error -1.48       -0.45       -0.31       1.11      
Jan-08 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       0.55       0.04       1.36        
Apr-09 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     0.45       -0.01       1.21          
Jun-09 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     0.00       -0.21       1.11          
Oct-09 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error 0.05       -0.16       1.21       0.21      
Jan-10 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.26       1.11       0.11        
Apr-10 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.06       1.16       0.16          
Jun-10 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     0.24       1.31       0.41          
Oct-10 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error -0.01       1.26       0.31       -0.40      
Jan-11 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       1.16       0.31       -0.40        
Apr-11 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     0.21       0.16       -0.50          
Jun-11 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     0.26       0.01       -0.55          
Oct-11 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error -0.14       0.06       -0.55       -0.52      
Jan-12 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       0.16       -0.50       -0.57        
Apr-12 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.19       -0.60       -0.62          
Jun-12 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     0.31       -0.55       -0.52          
Sep-12 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error   0.01       -0.60       -0.57       -1.47    
Dec-12 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error 0.11       -0.45       -0.52       -1.42      
Mar-13 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.30       -0.52       -1.42        
Jun-13 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     0.20       -0.47       -1.37          
Sep-13 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error   0.05       -0.32       -1.37            
Dec-13 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error 0.25       -0.27       -1.32              
Mar-14 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.32       -1.32                
Jun-14 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.37       -1.32                  
Sep-14 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error   -0.37       -1.32                    
Dec-14 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error -0.02       -0.87                      
Mar-15 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error       -0.27                        
Jun-15 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error     -0.27                          
Sep-15 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error   0.03                            
Dec-15 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 error 0.03                              
Jan-12 Federal funds rate, endyear error       0.00       0.00       -0.50        
Apr-12 Federal funds rate, endyear error     0.00       0.00       -0.75          
Jun-12 Federal funds rate, endyear error     0.00       0.00       -0.50          
Sep-12 Federal funds rate, endyear error   0.00       0.00       0.00       -0.50    
Dec-12 Federal funds rate, endyear error 0.00       0.00       0.00       -0.50      
Mar-13 Federal funds rate, endyear error       0.00       0.00       -0.45        
Jun-13 Federal funds rate, endyear error     0.00       0.00       -0.50          
Sep-13 Federal funds rate, endyear error   0.00       0.00       -0.50            
Dec-13 Federal funds rate, endyear error 0.00       0.00       -0.25              
Mar-14 Federal funds rate, endyear error       0.00       -0.50                
Jun-14 Federal funds rate, endyear error     0.00       -0.75                  
Sep-14 Federal funds rate, endyear error   0.00       -1.00                    
Dec-14 Federal funds rate, endyear error 0.00       -0.75                      
Mar-15 Federal funds rate, endyear error       -0.25                        
Jun-15 Federal funds rate, endyear error     -0.25                          
Sep-15 Federal funds rate, endyear error   0.00                            
Dec-15 Federal funds rate, endyear error -0.02                              
1996 to 2015 Real GDP growth, Q4 over Q4 historical RMSE 0.88 1.26 1.40 1.62 1.75 1.96 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.05 2.19 2.05 2.19 2.10 2.15 2.03
1996 to 2015 Unemployment rate, Q4 average historical RMSE 0.13 0.31 0.39 0.53 0.80 1.14 1.26 1.29 1.49 1.63 1.80 1.74 1.90 1.96 2.01 1.98
1996 to 2015 PCE inflation, Q4 over Q4 historical RMSE 0.24 0.80 0.75 0.91 0.98 1.05 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.15 1.04 1.12 1.02 1.09 0.98 1.07
1996 to 2015 Federal funds rate, endyear historical RMSE 0.11 0.54 0.72 0.91 1.40 1.69 1.95 2.02 1.94 2.21 2.22 2.41 2.41 2.63 2.67 2.80