Forecasting Stock Market Crashes is Hard--Especially Future Ones: Can Option Prices Help?, Accessible Data
Accessible version of figures
Figure 3: Option-Implied Probability of a Crash and Actual Crashes
Note. Vertical bars represent calendar months with a 7% crash or worse in the S&P 500.
Percent Probability
Date | Option-implied probability | Next Calendar Month with a 7 percent crash or worse |
---|---|---|
1/1/1990 | 0.12 | 0 |
2/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0 |
3/1/1990 | 0.09 | 0 |
4/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0 |
5/1/1990 | 0.08 | 0 |
6/1/1990 | 0.07 | 0 |
7/1/1990 | 0.1 | 1 |
8/1/1990 | 0.13 | 0 |
9/1/1990 | 0.14 | 0 |
10/1/1990 | 0.17 | 0 |
11/1/1990 | 0.11 | 0 |
12/1/1990 | 0.11 | 0 |
1/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0 |
2/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0 |
3/1/1991 | 0.08 | 0 |
4/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0 |
5/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/1/1991 | 0.1 | 0 |
7/1/1991 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/1/1991 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/1/1991 | 0.06 | 0 |
11/1/1991 | 0.1 | 0 |
12/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/1/1992 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0 |
3/1/1992 | 0.07 | 0 |
4/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0 |
5/1/1992 | 0.05 | 0 |
6/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0 |
7/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0 |
9/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0 |
10/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0 |
11/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/1/1992 | 0.05 | 0 |
1/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0 |
3/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0 |
4/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/1/1993 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/1/1993 | 0.05 | 0 |
10/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0 |
11/1/1993 | 0.05 | 0 |
12/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/1/1994 | 0.02 | 0 |
2/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0 |
3/1/1994 | 0.1 | 0 |
4/1/1994 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0 |
6/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0 |
7/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0 |
10/1/1994 | 0.05 | 0 |
11/1/1994 | 0.07 | 0 |
12/1/1994 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/1/1995 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 |
6/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 |
7/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/1/1995 | 0.02 | 0 |
9/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 |
10/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 |
12/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/1/1996 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0 |
3/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0 |
4/1/1996 | 0.07 | 0 |
5/1/1996 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/1/1996 | 0.05 | 0 |
7/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0 |
8/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0 |
9/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0 |
10/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0 |
11/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0 |
12/1/1996 | 0.11 | 0 |
1/1/1997 | 0.09 | 0 |
2/1/1997 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0 |
4/1/1997 | 0.1 | 0 |
5/1/1997 | 0.1 | 0 |
6/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0 |
7/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0 |
8/1/1997 | 0.14 | 0 |
9/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0 |
10/1/1997 | 0.17 | 0 |
11/1/1997 | 0.13 | 0 |
12/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/1/1998 | 0.1 | 0 |
2/1/1998 | 0.08 | 0 |
3/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0 |
4/1/1998 | 0.1 | 0 |
5/1/1998 | 0.11 | 0 |
6/1/1998 | 0.09 | 0 |
7/1/1998 | 0.12 | 1 |
8/1/1998 | 0.22 | 0 |
9/1/1998 | 0.19 | 0 |
10/1/1998 | 0.13 | 0 |
11/1/1998 | 0.13 | 0 |
12/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/1/1999 | 0.14 | 0 |
2/1/1999 | 0.15 | 0 |
3/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0 |
4/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0 |
5/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0 |
6/1/1999 | 0.1 | 0 |
7/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0 |
8/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0 |
9/1/1999 | 0.14 | 0 |
10/1/1999 | 0.11 | 0 |
11/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0 |
12/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0 |
2/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0 |
3/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0 |
4/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0 |
5/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0 |
6/1/2000 | 0.09 | 0 |
7/1/2000 | 0.11 | 0 |
8/1/2000 | 0.07 | 0 |
9/1/2000 | 0.1 | 0 |
10/1/2000 | 0.12 | 1 |
11/1/2000 | 0.17 | 0 |
12/1/2000 | 0.15 | 0 |
1/1/2014 | 0.11 | 1 |
2/1/2014 | 0.15 | 0 |
3/1/2014 | 0.17 | 0 |
4/1/2014 | 0.14 | 0 |
5/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0 |
6/1/2014 | 0.09 | 0 |
7/1/2014 | 0.11 | 0 |
8/1/2014 | 0.13 | 1 |
9/1/2014 | 0.18 | 0 |
10/1/2014 | 0.17 | 0 |
11/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0 |
12/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0 |
2/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/2/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
4/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0 |
5/2/2014 | 0.1 | 1 |
6/2/2014 | 0.15 | 1 |
7/2/2014 | 0.19 | 0 |
8/2/2014 | 0.18 | 1 |
9/2/2014 | 0.24 | 0 |
10/2/2014 | 0.19 | 0 |
11/2/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
12/2/2014 | 0.17 | 0 |
1/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0 |
2/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0 |
3/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0 |
4/3/2014 | 0.12 | 0 |
5/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0 |
6/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0 |
7/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0 |
8/3/2014 | 0.1 | 0 |
9/3/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
10/3/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/3/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
12/3/2014 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
2/4/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
3/4/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
4/4/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
5/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/4/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
7/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
8/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
9/4/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
10/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/4/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/4/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
1/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
3/5/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/5/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
5/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
7/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
9/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/5/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
11/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
3/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/6/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/6/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
7/6/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
9/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
11/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
12/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/7/2014 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/7/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/7/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
4/7/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/7/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/7/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
7/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
8/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
9/7/2014 | 0.09 | 0 |
10/7/2014 | 0.1 | 0 |
11/7/2014 | 0.14 | 0 |
12/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
1/8/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
2/8/2014 | 0.17 | 0 |
3/8/2014 | 0.17 | 0 |
4/8/2014 | 0.12 | 0 |
5/8/2014 | 0.09 | 1 |
6/8/2014 | 0.15 | 0 |
7/8/2014 | 0.14 | 0 |
8/8/2014 | 0.12 | 1 |
9/8/2014 | 0.25 | 1 |
10/8/2014 | 0.28 | 1 |
11/8/2014 | 0.29 | 0 |
12/8/2014 | 0.23 | 1 |
1/9/2014 | 0.25 | 1 |
2/9/2014 | 0.27 | 0 |
3/9/2014 | 0.26 | 0 |
4/9/2014 | 0.22 | 0 |
5/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
6/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
7/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
8/9/2014 | 0.15 | 0 |
9/9/2014 | 0.15 | 0 |
10/9/2014 | 0.17 | 0 |
11/9/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
12/9/2014 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/10/2014 | 0.14 | 0 |
2/10/2014 | 0.1 | 0 |
3/10/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
4/10/2014 | 0.11 | 1 |
5/10/2014 | 0.17 | 0 |
6/10/2014 | 0.2 | 0 |
7/10/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
8/10/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
9/10/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
10/10/2014 | 0.12 | 0 |
11/10/2014 | 0.14 | 0 |
12/10/2014 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/11/2014 | 0.09 | 0 |
2/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
3/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
4/11/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
5/11/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
7/11/2014 | 0.14 | 0 |
8/11/2014 | 0.17 | 1 |
9/11/2014 | 0.24 | 0 |
10/11/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
11/11/2014 | 0.16 | 0 |
12/11/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
1/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0 |
2/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
3/12/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
4/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
5/12/2014 | 0.13 | 0 |
6/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
7/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0 |
8/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
9/12/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0 |
11/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
12/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0 |
1/13/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
2/13/2014 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/13/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
6/13/2014 | 0.09 | 0 |
7/13/2014 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/13/2014 | 0.09 | 0 |
9/13/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
10/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
11/13/2014 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
1/14/2014 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/14/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
3/14/2014 | 0.05 | 0 |
Figure 4: Long-Run Average Probabilities of Crashes
Percent Probability
Event | Option-implied | Historical frequency |
---|---|---|
7 percent rash or worse | 9.7 | 5.5 |
10 crash or worse | 5.8 | 1.4 |
15 percent crash or worse | 2.9 | 0.7 |
Figure 7: False Positives
Note. Forecasts are for a 7% crash or worse over the nexdt calendar month. The box represents the inter-quartile range, while the whiskers represent the 10% and 90% quantities.
Estimated Percent Probability
Percentile | OIP-only model | Macro model | Full model |
---|---|---|---|
10th | 0.809 | 0.324 | 0.768 |
25th | 1.3232 | 0.522 | 1.4814 |
50th | 3.5975 | 0.8077 | 2.8149 |
75th | 7.3372 | 6.5832 | 5.8127 |
90th | 11.501 | 12.7446 | 13.125 |
Figure 8: True Positives
Note. Forecasts are for a 7% crash or worse over the nexdt calendar month. The box represents the inter-quartile range, while the whiskers represent the 10% and 90% quantities.
Estimated Percent Probability
Percentile | OIP-only model | Macro model | Full model |
---|---|---|---|
10th | 4.137 | 0.751 | 3.735 |
25th | 4.851 | 9.071 | 7.085 |
50th | 6.9927 | 13.61 | 11.399 |
75th | 17.984 | 17.393 | 17.934 |
90th | 21.478 | 20.454 | 25.969 |
Figure 9: Probability of a 7% Crash or Worse Over the Next Calendar Month
Note. Model-estimated probability is from the "Full" model specification. Vertical bars represent calendar months with a 7% crash or worse in the S&P 500.
Percent Probability
Date | Option-implied probability | Model-estimated probability | Next Calendar Month with a 7 percent crash or worse |
---|---|---|---|
1/1/1990 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
2/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
3/1/1990 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0 |
5/1/1990 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0 |
6/1/1990 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
7/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 1 |
8/1/1990 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0 |
9/1/1990 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0 |
10/1/1990 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
11/1/1990 | 0.11 | 0.1 | 0 |
12/1/1990 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0 |
2/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/1/1991 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0 |
4/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0 |
5/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
6/1/1991 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0 |
7/1/1991 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0 |
8/1/1991 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/1/1991 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/1/1991 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
12/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/1/1992 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1992 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/1/1992 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
8/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
10/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
12/1/1992 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
3/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
4/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/1/1993 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
8/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
9/1/1993 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
10/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
11/1/1993 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
1/1/1994 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1994 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1994 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0 |
7/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
10/1/1994 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |
11/1/1994 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
12/1/1994 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/1/1995 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
5/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
7/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
8/1/1995 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 |
9/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 |
10/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
11/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 |
12/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 |
1/1/1996 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 |
2/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 |
3/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0 |
4/1/1996 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0 |
5/1/1996 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/1/1996 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
7/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
12/1/1996 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/1/1997 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/1/1997 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1997 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/1/1997 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0 |
7/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/1/1997 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0 |
9/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/1/1997 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/1/1997 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
12/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0 |
1/1/1998 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0 |
2/1/1998 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0 |
3/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1998 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/1/1998 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0 |
6/1/1998 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0 |
7/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 1 |
8/1/1998 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0 |
9/1/1998 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0 |
10/1/1998 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0 |
11/1/1998 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0 |
12/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/1/1999 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0 |
2/1/1999 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0 |
4/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0 |
5/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0 |
6/1/1999 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0 |
7/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
8/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
9/1/1999 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0 |
10/1/1999 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0 |
12/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0 |
1/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0 |
4/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
5/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/1/2000 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0 |
7/1/2000 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/1/2000 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/1/2000 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/1/2000 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1 |
11/1/2000 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
12/1/2000 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/1/2014 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1 |
2/1/2014 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/1/2014 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0 |
4/1/2014 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0 |
5/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0 |
6/1/2014 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0 |
7/1/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
8/1/2014 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1 |
9/1/2014 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0 |
10/1/2014 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
11/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0 |
12/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/2/2014 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0 |
4/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
5/2/2014 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 1 |
6/2/2014 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1 |
7/2/2014 | 0.19 | 0.1 | 0 |
8/2/2014 | 0.18 | 0.1 | 1 |
9/2/2014 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0 |
10/2/2014 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0 |
11/2/2014 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0 |
12/2/2014 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0 |
2/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0.1 | 0 |
4/3/2014 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0 |
5/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
6/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0 |
7/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/3/2014 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0 |
9/3/2014 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0 |
10/3/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/3/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/3/2014 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/4/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/4/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/4/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
6/4/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/4/2014 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |
10/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/4/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/4/2014 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/5/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/5/2014 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
8/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
9/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
10/5/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
3/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
4/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
5/6/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/6/2014 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0 |
7/6/2014 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
10/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
12/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/7/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/7/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/7/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/7/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
5/7/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/7/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0 |
9/7/2014 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/7/2014 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/7/2014 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0 |
12/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0 |
1/8/2014 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/8/2014 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0 |
3/8/2014 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0 |
4/8/2014 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0 |
5/8/2014 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1 |
6/8/2014 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0 |
7/8/2014 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0 |
8/8/2014 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1 |
9/8/2014 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 1 |
10/8/2014 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1 |
11/8/2014 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 0 |
12/8/2014 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1 |
1/9/2014 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1 |
2/9/2014 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0 |
3/9/2014 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0 |
4/9/2014 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0 |
5/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0 |
6/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0 |
7/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0 |
8/9/2014 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0 |
9/9/2014 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0 |
10/9/2014 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/9/2014 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0 |
12/9/2014 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
1/10/2014 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0 |
2/10/2014 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
3/10/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/10/2014 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 1 |
5/10/2014 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
6/10/2014 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 |
7/10/2014 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0 |
8/10/2014 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0 |
9/10/2014 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/10/2014 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0 |
11/10/2014 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0 |
12/10/2014 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/11/2014 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/11/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
5/11/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/11/2014 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/11/2014 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 1 |
9/11/2014 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0 |
10/11/2014 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0 |
11/11/2014 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0 |
12/11/2014 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
1/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0 |
2/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0 |
3/12/2014 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
5/12/2014 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0 |
7/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
8/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/12/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/13/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
2/13/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
5/13/2014 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/13/2014 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/13/2014 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0 |
8/13/2014 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
9/13/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
10/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |
11/13/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
1/14/2014 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/14/2014 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0 |
3/14/2014 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |
Figure 10: Probability of a 10% Crash or Worse Over the Next Calendar Month
Note. Model-estimated probability is from the "Full" model specification. Vertical bars represent calendar months with a 10% crash or worse in the S&P 500.
Percent Probability
Date | Option-implied probability | Model-estimated probability | Next Calendar Month with a 7 percent crash or worse |
---|---|---|---|
1/1/1990 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
2/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
3/1/1990 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0 |
5/1/1990 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0 |
6/1/1990 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
7/1/1990 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 1 |
8/1/1990 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0 |
9/1/1990 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0 |
10/1/1990 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
11/1/1990 | 0.11 | 0.1 | 0 |
12/1/1990 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0 |
2/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/1/1991 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0 |
4/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0 |
5/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
6/1/1991 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0 |
7/1/1991 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0 |
8/1/1991 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/1/1991 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/1/1991 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/1/1991 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
12/1/1991 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/1/1992 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1992 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/1/1992 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
8/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
10/1/1992 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/1/1992 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
12/1/1992 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
3/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
4/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/1/1993 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/1/1993 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
8/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
9/1/1993 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
10/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
11/1/1993 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/1/1993 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
1/1/1994 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1994 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1994 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0 |
7/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/1/1994 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/1/1994 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
10/1/1994 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |
11/1/1994 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
12/1/1994 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/1/1995 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
5/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
7/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
8/1/1995 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 |
9/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 |
10/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
11/1/1995 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 |
12/1/1995 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 |
1/1/1996 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 |
2/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 |
3/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0 |
4/1/1996 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0 |
5/1/1996 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/1/1996 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
7/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/1/1996 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/1/1996 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
12/1/1996 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/1/1997 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/1/1997 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1997 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/1/1997 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0 |
7/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/1/1997 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0 |
9/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/1/1997 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/1/1997 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
12/1/1997 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0 |
1/1/1998 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0 |
2/1/1998 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0 |
3/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/1/1998 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
5/1/1998 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0 |
6/1/1998 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0 |
7/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 1 |
8/1/1998 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0 |
9/1/1998 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0 |
10/1/1998 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0 |
11/1/1998 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0 |
12/1/1998 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/1/1999 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0 |
2/1/1999 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0 |
4/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0 |
5/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0 |
6/1/1999 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0 |
7/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
8/1/1999 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
9/1/1999 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0 |
10/1/1999 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0 |
12/1/1999 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0 |
1/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0 |
4/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
5/1/2000 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/1/2000 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0 |
7/1/2000 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/1/2000 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/1/2000 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/1/2000 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1 |
11/1/2000 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
12/1/2000 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/1/2014 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1 |
2/1/2014 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/1/2014 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0 |
4/1/2014 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0 |
5/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0 |
6/1/2014 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0 |
7/1/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
8/1/2014 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1 |
9/1/2014 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0 |
10/1/2014 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
11/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0 |
12/1/2014 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0 |
1/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0 |
3/2/2014 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0 |
4/2/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
5/2/2014 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 1 |
6/2/2014 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1 |
7/2/2014 | 0.19 | 0.1 | 0 |
8/2/2014 | 0.18 | 0.1 | 1 |
9/2/2014 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0 |
10/2/2014 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0 |
11/2/2014 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0 |
12/2/2014 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0 |
1/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0 |
2/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0 |
3/3/2014 | 0.19 | 0.1 | 0 |
4/3/2014 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0 |
5/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 |
6/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0 |
7/3/2014 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0 |
8/3/2014 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0 |
9/3/2014 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0 |
10/3/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/3/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/3/2014 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/4/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/4/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/4/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
6/4/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/4/2014 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |
10/4/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/4/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/4/2014 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/5/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/5/2014 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
5/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
8/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
9/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
10/5/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/5/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/5/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
3/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
4/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
5/6/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
6/6/2014 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0 |
7/6/2014 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0 |
9/6/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
10/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 |
11/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
12/6/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
1/7/2014 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0 |
2/7/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/7/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/7/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
5/7/2014 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/7/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0 |
8/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0 |
9/7/2014 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/7/2014 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/7/2014 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0 |
12/7/2014 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0 |
1/8/2014 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0 |
2/8/2014 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0 |
3/8/2014 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0 |
4/8/2014 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0 |
5/8/2014 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1 |
6/8/2014 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0 |
7/8/2014 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0 |
8/8/2014 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1 |
9/8/2014 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 1 |
10/8/2014 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1 |
11/8/2014 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 0 |
12/8/2014 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1 |
1/9/2014 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1 |
2/9/2014 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0 |
3/9/2014 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0 |
4/9/2014 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0 |
5/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0 |
6/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0 |
7/9/2014 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0 |
8/9/2014 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0 |
9/9/2014 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0 |
10/9/2014 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0 |
11/9/2014 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0 |
12/9/2014 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0 |
1/10/2014 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0 |
2/10/2014 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
3/10/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
4/10/2014 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 1 |
5/10/2014 | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0 |
6/10/2014 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 |
7/10/2014 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0 |
8/10/2014 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0 |
9/10/2014 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
10/10/2014 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0 |
11/10/2014 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0 |
12/10/2014 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
1/11/2014 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0 |
2/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
3/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/11/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
5/11/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
6/11/2014 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/11/2014 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0 |
8/11/2014 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 1 |
9/11/2014 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0 |
10/11/2014 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0 |
11/11/2014 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0 |
12/11/2014 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0 |
1/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0 |
2/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0 |
3/12/2014 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0 |
4/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
5/12/2014 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0 |
6/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0 |
7/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0 |
8/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0 |
9/12/2014 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 |
10/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0 |
11/12/2014 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
12/12/2014 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 0 |
1/13/2014 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 |
2/13/2014 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0 |
3/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
4/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 |
5/13/2014 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0 |
6/13/2014 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0 |
7/13/2014 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0 |
8/13/2014 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0 |
9/13/2014 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0 |
10/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |
11/13/2014 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0 |
12/13/2014 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0 |
1/14/2014 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0 |
2/14/2014 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0 |
3/14/2014 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0 |