Optimal-Control Monetary Policy in the FRB/US Model, Accessible Data

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Predicted Outcomes Under OC Policy Starting in Late 2012

 
September 2012 SEP-Consistent Baseline OC Policy Under Late-2012 Model and Information
Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield
2012Q1 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00
2012Q2 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27
2012Q3 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12
2012Q4 0.13 8.10 1.77 0.34 0.13 8.10 1.82 -0.03
2013Q1 0.13 8.01 1.59 0.54 0.13 8.00 1.68 0.16
2013Q2 0.13 7.94 1.88 0.74 0.13 7.89 2.01 0.35
2013Q3 0.13 7.86 1.84 0.92 0.13 7.77 2.01 0.54
2013Q4 0.13 7.75 1.82 1.10 0.13 7.61 1.98 0.71
2014Q1 0.12 7.59 1.82 1.27 0.12 7.40 1.98 0.88
2014Q2 0.12 7.40 1.81 1.44 0.12 7.15 1.99 1.05
2014Q3 0.12 7.20 1.81 1.60 0.12 6.90 1.99 1.21
2014Q4 0.12 7.00 1.82 1.76 0.12 6.65 1.99 1.37
2015Q1 0.16 6.82 1.84 1.91 0.12 6.43 2.01 1.52
2015Q2 0.28 6.67 1.86 2.06 0.13 6.23 2.03 1.68
2015Q3 0.48 6.53 1.89 2.21 0.13 6.05 2.05 1.83
2015Q4 0.80 6.40 1.92 2.34 0.20 5.88 2.07 1.98
2016Q1 1.27 6.28 1.93 2.47 0.31 5.73 2.09 2.14
2016Q2 1.85 6.18 1.95 2.58 0.54 5.59 2.10 2.29
2016Q3 2.46 6.08 1.96 2.67 0.87 5.47 2.11 2.43
2016Q4 3.01 6.00 1.97 2.74 1.25 5.37 2.12 2.57
2017Q1 3.41 5.93 1.98 2.80 1.67 5.30 2.14 2.70
2017Q2 3.64 5.88 1.98 2.84 2.11 5.25 2.16 2.82
2017Q3 3.75 5.84 1.99 2.87 2.53 5.24 2.18 2.92
2017Q4 3.80 5.80 1.99 2.89 2.92 5.23 2.21 3.01
2018Q1 3.83 5.77 2.00 2.91 3.28 5.25 2.23 3.08
2018Q2 3.86 5.74 2.00 2.93 3.59 5.27 2.25 3.15
2018Q3 3.90 5.72 2.01 2.95 3.86 5.31 2.26 3.20
2018Q4 3.94 5.70 2.01 2.96 4.10 5.35 2.27 3.24
2019Q1 3.96 5.68 2.01 2.97 4.29 5.40 2.28 3.27
2019Q2 3.98 5.67 2.01 2.99 4.44 5.45 2.27 3.29
2019Q3 3.99 5.66 2.01 2.99 4.57 5.50 2.27 3.30
2019Q4 3.99 5.65 2.01 3.00 4.66 5.55 2.26 3.30
2020Q1 3.99 5.64 2.01 3.01 4.72 5.59 2.24 3.30
2020Q2 3.99 5.64 2.02 3.02 4.77 5.63 2.22 3.30
2020Q3 3.99 5.63 2.02 3.02 4.79 5.67 2.20 3.29
2020Q4 4.00 5.63 2.02 3.03 4.79 5.70 2.18 3.28
2021Q1 4.00 5.62 2.02 3.03 4.78 5.72 2.16 3.26
2021Q2 4.00 5.62 2.02 3.04 4.76 5.75 2.13 3.25
2021Q3 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.04 4.72 5.76 2.11 3.23
2021Q4 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.04 4.68 5.77 2.08 3.21
2022Q1 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.05 4.62 5.78 2.06 3.19
2022Q2 4.00 5.58 2.02 3.06 4.57 5.76 2.03 3.18
2022Q3 4.00 5.56 2.02 3.05 4.51 5.73 2.01 3.15
2022Q4 4.00 5.54 2.02 3.05 4.44 5.70 1.99 3.13

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Figure 2: Sensitivity of Outcomes Under Late-2012 OC Policy to Changes in the Loss Function Weights

 
OC Policy With Equal Loss Weights OC Policy With High Weight on Unemployment OC Policy With High Weight on Inflation OC Polist With Low Weight on Funds Rate Smoothing
Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield
2012Q1 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00
2012Q2 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27
2012Q3 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12
2012Q4 0.13 8.10 1.82 -0.03 0.13 8.10 1.84 -0.17 0.13 8.10 1.80 0.10 0.13 8.10 1.82 -0.05
2013Q1 0.13 8.00 1.68 0.16 0.13 7.99 1.73 0.03 0.13 8.00 1.65 0.30 0.13 7.99 1.68 0.15
2013Q2 0.13 7.89 2.01 0.35 0.13 7.88 2.08 0.22 0.13 7.91 1.95 0.49 0.13 7.89 2.01 0.34
2013Q3 0.13 7.77 2.01 0.54 0.13 7.74 2.12 0.40 0.13 7.80 1.94 0.67 0.13 7.76 2.01 0.52
2013Q4 0.13 7.61 1.98 0.71 0.13 7.57 2.09 0.58 0.13 7.65 1.91 0.85 0.13 7.60 1.98 0.70
2014Q1 0.12 7.40 1.98 0.88 0.13 7.35 2.10 0.75 0.13 7.46 1.91 1.02 0.13 7.39 1.98 0.87
2014Q2 0.12 7.15 1.99 1.05 0.13 7.09 2.11 0.91 0.13 7.24 1.91 1.18 0.13 7.14 1.98 1.03
2014Q3 0.12 6.90 1.99 1.21 0.13 6.83 2.12 1.08 0.13 7.00 1.91 1.34 0.13 6.88 1.98 1.19
2014Q4 0.12 6.65 1.99 1.37 0.13 6.57 2.12 1.24 0.13 6.77 1.91 1.50 0.13 6.63 1.98 1.35
2015Q1 0.12 6.43 2.01 1.52 0.13 6.33 2.14 1.40 0.12 6.56 1.93 1.66 0.13 6.41 2.00 1.51
2015Q2 0.13 6.23 2.03 1.68 0.13 6.12 2.17 1.55 0.12 6.38 1.95 1.81 0.13 6.21 2.03 1.66
2015Q3 0.13 6.05 2.05 1.83 0.13 5.94 2.20 1.71 0.13 6.21 1.98 1.96 0.13 6.02 2.05 1.81
2015Q4 0.20 5.88 2.07 1.98 0.13 5.76 2.22 1.87 0.24 6.06 2.00 2.11 0.13 5.86 2.07 1.97
2016Q1 0.31 5.73 2.09 2.14 0.13 5.60 2.24 2.03 0.49 5.92 2.02 2.26 0.13 5.70 2.09 2.12
2016Q2 0.54 5.59 2.10 2.29 0.13 5.46 2.26 2.19 0.85 5.79 2.03 2.40 0.13 5.56 2.10 2.28
2016Q3 0.87 5.47 2.11 2.43 0.14 5.33 2.27 2.35 1.29 5.68 2.04 2.54 0.22 5.43 2.11 2.44
2016Q4 1.25 5.37 2.12 2.57 0.34 5.23 2.29 2.52 1.76 5.58 2.06 2.66 0.49 5.33 2.13 2.60
2017Q1 1.67 5.30 2.14 2.70 0.87 5.15 2.32 2.69 2.25 5.52 2.07 2.76 1.11 5.26 2.15 2.76
2017Q2 2.11 5.25 2.16 2.82 1.59 5.11 2.35 2.85 2.71 5.48 2.09 2.85 1.91 5.22 2.18 2.90
2017Q3 2.53 5.24 2.18 2.92 2.35 5.11 2.39 2.98 3.13 5.46 2.11 2.93 2.69 5.22 2.22 3.01
2017Q4 2.92 5.23 2.21 3.01 3.05 5.13 2.43 3.08 3.47 5.45 2.13 2.99 3.35 5.23 2.25 3.10
2018Q1 3.28 5.25 2.23 3.08 3.66 5.17 2.46 3.17 3.73 5.45 2.14 3.04 3.87 5.27 2.28 3.17
2018Q2 3.59 5.27 2.25 3.15 4.17 5.22 2.49 3.23 3.93 5.47 2.15 3.08 4.25 5.31 2.30 3.21
2018Q3 3.86 5.31 2.26 3.20 4.57 5.28 2.51 3.27 4.08 5.48 2.16 3.10 4.52 5.37 2.31 3.24
2018Q4 4.10 5.35 2.27 3.24 4.88 5.35 2.52 3.29 4.17 5.51 2.16 3.13 4.68 5.42 2.31 3.25
2019Q1 4.29 5.40 2.28 3.27 5.09 5.41 2.52 3.30 4.23 5.53 2.16 3.14 4.78 5.47 2.31 3.26
2019Q2 4.44 5.45 2.27 3.29 5.22 5.47 2.51 3.30 4.26 5.55 2.16 3.15 4.82 5.52 2.29 3.26
2019Q3 4.57 5.50 2.27 3.30 5.28 5.52 2.49 3.29 4.28 5.58 2.15 3.16 4.82 5.57 2.27 3.26
2019Q4 4.66 5.55 2.26 3.30 5.27 5.57 2.46 3.28 4.28 5.60 2.14 3.17 4.79 5.60 2.25 3.25
2020Q1 4.72 5.59 2.24 3.30 5.21 5.60 2.43 3.26 4.28 5.63 2.13 3.18 4.74 5.64 2.22 3.25
2020Q2 4.77 5.63 2.22 3.30 5.11 5.62 2.40 3.24 4.28 5.65 2.12 3.18 4.68 5.66 2.20 3.24
2020Q3 4.79 5.67 2.20 3.29 4.98 5.64 2.36 3.23 4.29 5.67 2.11 3.18 4.62 5.68 2.17 3.23
2020Q4 4.79 5.70 2.18 3.28 4.84 5.65 2.33 3.21 4.30 5.69 2.10 3.18 4.56 5.70 2.14 3.22
2021Q1 4.78 5.72 2.16 3.26 4.70 5.66 2.29 3.20 4.32 5.71 2.09 3.18 4.51 5.72 2.12 3.21
2021Q2 4.76 5.75 2.13 3.25 4.56 5.66 2.26 3.19 4.35 5.73 2.07 3.18 4.46 5.73 2.09 3.20
2021Q3 4.72 5.76 2.11 3.23 4.44 5.66 2.23 3.18 4.39 5.74 2.06 3.17 4.42 5.74 2.07 3.19
2021Q4 4.68 5.77 2.08 3.21 4.34 5.66 2.20 3.18 4.43 5.76 2.05 3.16 4.39 5.75 2.05 3.18
2022Q1 4.62 5.78 2.06 3.19 4.27 5.66 2.17 3.18 4.46 5.77 2.04 3.15 4.37 5.76 2.03 3.17
2022Q2 4.57 5.76 2.03 3.18 4.24 5.63 2.15 3.19 4.50 5.75 2.03 3.15 4.37 5.74 2.01 3.17
2022Q3 4.51 5.73 2.01 3.15 4.19 5.60 2.13 3.18 4.55 5.73 2.02 3.12 4.42 5.71 1.99 3.15
2022Q4 4.44 5.70 1.99 3.13 4.31 5.58 2.12 3.17 4.49 5.71 2.01 3.09 4.37 5.68 1.97 3.13

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Figure 3: Sensitivity of Outcomes Under Late-2012 OC Policy to Changes in the FRB/US Model

 
September 2012 SEP-Consistent Baseline OC Policy (Late-2012 Model) OC Policy (Late-2014 Model)
Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield
2012Q1 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.25 2.43 0.07
2012Q2 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.18 1.75 -0.23
2012Q3 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.12 8.21 1.67 0.12
2012Q4 0.13 8.10 1.77 0.34 0.13 8.10 1.82 -0.03 0.13 8.10 1.78 -0.25
2013Q1 0.13 8.01 1.59 0.54 0.13 8.00 1.68 0.16 0.13 7.98 1.73 -0.06
2013Q2 0.13 7.94 1.88 0.74 0.13 7.89 2.01 0.35 0.13 7.87 1.88 0.12
2013Q3 0.13 7.86 1.84 0.92 0.13 7.77 2.01 0.54 0.12 7.75 1.92 0.30
2013Q4 0.13 7.75 1.82 1.10 0.13 7.61 1.98 0.71 0.12 7.59 1.96 0.47
2014Q1 0.12 7.59 1.82 1.27 0.12 7.40 1.98 0.88 0.12 7.39 1.98 0.63
2014Q2 0.12 7.40 1.81 1.44 0.12 7.15 1.99 1.05 0.12 7.15 1.99 0.80
2014Q3 0.12 7.20 1.81 1.60 0.12 6.90 1.99 1.21 0.12 6.90 1.99 0.95
2014Q4 0.12 7.00 1.82 1.76 0.12 6.65 1.99 1.37 0.12 6.66 2.00 1.11
2015Q1 0.16 6.82 1.84 1.91 0.12 6.43 2.01 1.52 0.12 6.44 2.02 1.26
2015Q2 0.28 6.67 1.86 2.06 0.13 6.23 2.03 1.68 0.13 6.24 2.04 1.42
2015Q3 0.48 6.53 1.89 2.21 0.13 6.05 2.05 1.83 0.13 6.06 2.07 1.57
2015Q4 0.80 6.40 1.92 2.34 0.20 5.88 2.07 1.98 0.19 5.89 2.09 1.72
2016Q1 1.27 6.28 1.93 2.47 0.31 5.73 2.09 2.14 0.23 5.72 2.10 1.87
2016Q2 1.85 6.18 1.95 2.58 0.54 5.59 2.10 2.29 0.36 5.57 2.11 2.02
2016Q3 2.46 6.08 1.96 2.67 0.87 5.47 2.11 2.43 0.58 5.43 2.12 2.17
2016Q4 3.01 6.00 1.97 2.74 1.25 5.37 2.12 2.57 0.86 5.31 2.12 2.31
2017Q1 3.41 5.93 1.98 2.80 1.67 5.30 2.14 2.70 1.20 5.22 2.13 2.44
2017Q2 3.64 5.88 1.98 2.84 2.11 5.25 2.16 2.82 1.55 5.16 2.13 2.57
2017Q3 3.75 5.84 1.99 2.87 2.53 5.24 2.18 2.92 1.92 5.14 2.13 2.68
2017Q4 3.80 5.80 1.99 2.89 2.92 5.23 2.21 3.01 2.28 5.13 2.13 2.78
2018Q1 3.83 5.77 2.00 2.91 3.28 5.25 2.23 3.08 2.62 5.13 2.13 2.87
2018Q2 3.86 5.74 2.00 2.93 3.59 5.27 2.25 3.15 2.94 5.15 2.12 2.95
2018Q3 3.90 5.72 2.01 2.95 3.86 5.31 2.26 3.20 3.23 5.17 2.12 3.02
2018Q4 3.94 5.70 2.01 2.96 4.10 5.35 2.27 3.24 3.49 5.20 2.12 3.08
2019Q1 3.96 5.68 2.01 2.97 4.29 5.40 2.28 3.27 3.72 5.24 2.12 3.12
2019Q2 3.98 5.67 2.01 2.99 4.44 5.45 2.27 3.29 3.91 5.28 2.11 3.16
2019Q3 3.99 5.66 2.01 2.99 4.57 5.50 2.27 3.30 4.08 5.33 2.11 3.19
2019Q4 3.99 5.65 2.01 3.00 4.66 5.55 2.26 3.30 4.22 5.37 2.11 3.22
2020Q1 3.99 5.64 2.01 3.01 4.72 5.59 2.24 3.30 4.33 5.42 2.11 3.23
2020Q2 3.99 5.64 2.02 3.02 4.77 5.63 2.22 3.30 4.41 5.46 2.10 3.25
2020Q3 3.99 5.63 2.02 3.02 4.79 5.67 2.20 3.29 4.48 5.50 2.10 3.25
2020Q4 4.00 5.63 2.02 3.03 4.79 5.70 2.18 3.28 4.52 5.54 2.10 3.25
2021Q1 4.00 5.62 2.02 3.03 4.78 5.72 2.16 3.26 4.55 5.57 2.09 3.25
2021Q2 4.00 5.62 2.02 3.04 4.76 5.75 2.13 3.25 4.57 5.60 2.09 3.25
2021Q3 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.04 4.72 5.76 2.11 3.23 4.57 5.63 2.09 3.25
2021Q4 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.04 4.68 5.77 2.08 3.21 4.57 5.65 2.08 3.24
2022Q1 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.05 4.62 5.78 2.06 3.19 4.56 5.67 2.08 3.23
2022Q2 4.00 5.58 2.02 3.06 4.57 5.76 2.03 3.18 4.54 5.64 2.08 3.24
2022Q3 4.00 5.56 2.02 3.05 4.51 5.73 2.01 3.15 4.52 5.63 2.07 3.18
2022Q4 4.00 5.54 2.02 3.05 4.44 5.70 1.99 3.13 4.49 5.63 2.07 3.17

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Figure 4: Sensitivity of OC Policy to Changes in the Economic Outlook (results computed using the late-2012 version of the FRB/US model)

 
September 2012 SEP-Consistent Baseline More Optomistic Late-2012 Outlook OC Policy (SEP Outlook) OC Policy (More Optimistic Outlook)
Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield
2012Q1 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00
2012Q2 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27
2012Q3 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12
2012Q4 0.13 8.10 1.77 0.34 0.13 8.10 1.77 0.29 0.13 8.10 1.82 -0.03 0.13 8.10 1.79 0.06
2013Q1 0.13 8.01 1.59 0.54 0.13 7.98 1.60 0.52 0.13 8.00 1.68 0.16 0.13 7.97 1.62 0.28
2013Q2 0.13 7.94 1.88 0.74 0.13 7.85 1.88 0.72 0.13 7.89 2.01 0.35 0.13 7.81 1.92 0.48
2013Q3 0.13 7.86 1.84 0.92 0.14 7.70 1.85 0.91 0.13 7.77 2.01 0.54 0.13 7.64 1.90 0.67
2013Q4 0.13 7.75 1.82 1.10 0.11 7.53 1.83 1.09 0.13 7.61 1.98 0.71 0.13 7.43 1.87 0.84
2014Q1 0.12 7.59 1.82 1.27 0.10 7.31 1.85 1.27 0.12 7.40 1.98 0.88 0.13 7.17 1.88 1.02
2014Q2 0.12 7.40 1.81 1.44 0.33 7.05 1.86 1.48 0.12 7.15 1.99 1.05 0.14 6.88 1.90 1.23
2014Q3 0.12 7.20 1.81 1.60 0.66 6.78 1.88 1.70 0.12 6.90 1.99 1.21 0.23 6.57 1.91 1.45
2014Q4 0.12 7.00 1.82 1.76 1.07 6.51 1.89 1.94 0.12 6.65 1.99 1.37 0.42 6.26 1.92 1.71
2015Q1 0.16 6.82 1.84 1.91 1.50 6.27 1.92 2.16 0.12 6.43 2.01 1.52 0.70 5.99 1.95 1.95
2015Q2 0.28 6.67 1.86 2.06 1.92 6.05 1.95 2.37 0.13 6.23 2.03 1.68 1.05 5.74 1.98 2.19
2015Q3 0.48 6.53 1.89 2.21 2.33 5.85 1.98 2.55 0.13 6.05 2.05 1.83 1.43 5.51 2.02 2.40
2015Q4 0.80 6.40 1.92 2.34 2.73 5.67 2.02 2.70 0.20 5.88 2.07 1.98 1.83 5.31 2.06 2.58
2016Q1 1.27 6.28 1.93 2.47 3.08 5.57 2.05 2.77 0.31 5.73 2.09 2.14 2.22 5.20 2.10 2.70
2016Q2 1.85 6.18 1.95 2.58 3.37 5.54 2.08 2.82 0.54 5.59 2.10 2.29 2.60 5.18 2.14 2.79
2016Q3 2.46 6.08 1.96 2.67 3.60 5.52 2.10 2.85 0.87 5.47 2.11 2.43 2.94 5.17 2.18 2.85
2016Q4 3.01 6.00 1.97 2.74 3.78 5.50 2.13 2.85 1.25 5.37 2.12 2.57 3.26 5.18 2.21 2.88
2017Q1 3.41 5.93 1.98 2.80 3.91 5.50 2.14 2.86 1.67 5.30 2.14 2.70 3.53 5.20 2.23 2.92
2017Q2 3.64 5.88 1.98 2.84 4.01 5.50 2.14 2.88 2.11 5.25 2.16 2.82 3.77 5.24 2.24 2.96
2017Q3 3.75 5.84 1.99 2.87 4.08 5.51 2.15 2.91 2.53 5.24 2.18 2.92 3.97 5.28 2.25 3.01
2017Q4 3.80 5.80 1.99 2.89 4.12 5.52 2.14 2.94 2.92 5.23 2.21 3.01 4.13 5.33 2.25 3.05
2018Q1 3.83 5.77 2.00 2.91 4.14 5.54 2.13 2.96 3.28 5.25 2.23 3.08 4.25 5.39 2.24 3.09
2018Q2 3.86 5.74 2.00 2.93 4.15 5.55 2.11 2.98 3.59 5.27 2.25 3.15 4.34 5.43 2.22 3.11
2018Q3 3.90 5.72 2.01 2.95 4.14 5.56 2.10 2.99 3.86 5.31 2.26 3.20 4.41 5.48 2.20 3.12
2018Q4 3.94 5.70 2.01 2.96 4.14 5.57 2.08 2.99 4.10 5.35 2.27 3.24 4.45 5.52 2.18 3.13
2019Q1 3.96 5.68 2.01 2.97 4.13 5.57 2.07 3.00 4.29 5.40 2.28 3.27 4.47 5.55 2.16 3.13
2019Q2 3.98 5.67 2.01 2.99 4.12 5.57 2.06 3.01 4.44 5.45 2.27 3.29 4.48 5.58 2.13 3.13
2019Q3 3.99 5.66 2.01 2.99 4.12 5.57 2.04 3.02 4.57 5.50 2.27 3.30 4.47 5.60 2.11 3.13
2019Q4 3.99 5.65 2.01 3.00 4.11 5.57 2.03 3.02 4.66 5.55 2.26 3.30 4.46 5.61 2.09 3.13
2020Q1 3.99 5.64 2.01 3.01 4.11 5.56 2.02 3.03 4.72 5.59 2.24 3.30 4.43 5.63 2.06 3.12
2020Q2 3.99 5.64 2.02 3.02 4.10 5.56 2.01 3.04 4.77 5.63 2.22 3.30 4.41 5.64 2.04 3.12
2020Q3 3.99 5.63 2.02 3.02 4.10 5.55 2.01 3.04 4.79 5.67 2.20 3.29 4.38 5.64 2.03 3.11
2020Q4 4.00 5.63 2.02 3.03 4.09 5.55 2.00 3.05 4.79 5.70 2.18 3.28 4.35 5.65 2.01 3.11
2021Q1 4.00 5.62 2.02 3.03 4.09 5.55 2.00 3.05 4.78 5.72 2.16 3.26 4.32 5.65 2.00 3.10
2021Q2 4.00 5.62 2.02 3.04 4.09 5.54 2.00 3.05 4.76 5.75 2.13 3.25 4.29 5.65 1.98 3.10
2021Q3 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.04 4.08 5.54 2.00 3.06 4.72 5.76 2.11 3.23 4.26 5.65 1.97 3.09
2021Q4 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.04 4.08 5.54 2.00 3.06 4.68 5.77 2.08 3.21 4.23 5.65 1.96 3.08
2022Q1 4.00 5.61 2.02 3.05 4.08 5.54 2.00 3.06 4.62 5.78 2.06 3.19 4.20 5.65 1.96 3.08
2022Q2 4.00 5.58 2.02 3.06 4.07 5.54 2.00 3.07 4.57 5.76 2.03 3.18 4.18 5.65 1.95 3.08
2022Q3 4.00 5.56 2.02 3.05 4.06 5.54 2.00 3.06 4.51 5.73 2.01 3.15 4.16 5.64 1.95 3.06
2022Q4 4.00 5.54 2.02 3.05 4.05 5.54 2.00 3.05 4.44 5.70 1.99 3.13 4.12 5.65 1.94 3.05

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Figure 5: OC Policy and Predicted Outcomes -- Last-2012 Estimates Versus Late-2014 Estimates (estimates derived using the information and model version at the time of the OC calculation)

 
History and Late-2014 SEP-Consistent Baseline Late-2012 OC Policy Late-2014 OC Policy
Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield Federal Funds Rate Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) Real 10-Year Treasury Yield
2012Q1 0.10 8.25 2.43 0.07 0.10 8.24 2.36 0.00 0.10 8.25 2.43 0.07
2012Q2 0.15 8.18 1.75 -0.23 0.15 8.17 1.64 -0.27 0.15 8.18 1.75 -0.23
2012Q3 0.14 8.01 1.54 -0.44 0.13 8.22 1.55 0.12 0.14 8.01 1.54 -0.44
2012Q4 0.16 7.82 1.64 -0.44 0.13 8.10 1.82 -0.03 0.16 7.82 1.64 -0.44
2013Q1 0.14 7.73 1.37 -0.14 0.13 8.00 1.68 0.16 0.14 7.73 1.37 -0.14
2013Q2 0.12 7.52 1.15 0.01 0.13 7.89 2.01 0.35 0.12 7.52 1.15 0.01
2013Q3 0.08 7.26 1.24 0.75 0.13 7.77 2.01 0.54 0.08 7.26 1.24 0.75
2013Q4 0.09 6.96 1.04 0.70 0.13 7.61 1.98 0.71 0.09 6.96 1.04 0.70
2014Q1 0.07 6.67 1.13 0.70 0.12 7.40 1.98 0.88 0.07 6.67 1.13 0.70
2014Q2 0.09 6.22 1.59 0.54 0.12 7.15 1.99 1.05 0.09 6.22 1.59 0.54
2014Q3 0.13 6.16 1.51 0.95 0.12 6.90 1.99 1.21 0.13 6.16 1.51 0.95
2014Q4 0.12 5.95 1.61 1.14 0.12 6.65 1.99 1.37 0.33 5.95 1.61 1.23
2015Q1 0.12 5.79 1.70 1.33 0.12 6.43 2.01 1.52 0.57 5.80 1.70 1.42
2015Q2 0.23 5.67 1.56 1.51 0.13 6.23 2.03 1.68 0.83 5.70 1.55 1.59
2015Q3 0.68 5.58 1.67 1.69 0.13 6.05 2.05 1.83 1.12 5.63 1.66 1.75
2015Q4 1.14 5.50 1.77 1.84 0.20 5.88 2.07 1.98 1.42 5.56 1.76 1.89
2016Q1 1.57 5.43 1.79 1.98 0.31 5.73 2.09 2.14 1.73 5.48 1.78 2.02
2016Q2 1.97 5.37 1.82 2.10 0.54 5.59 2.10 2.29 2.04 5.42 1.81 2.13
2016Q3 2.35 5.31 1.84 2.21 0.87 5.47 2.11 2.43 2.34 5.35 1.83 2.23
2016Q4 2.70 5.25 1.87 2.30 1.25 5.37 2.12 2.57 2.63 5.29 1.86 2.32
2017Q1 3.03 5.19 1.90 2.37 1.67 5.30 2.14 2.70 2.89 5.22 1.88 2.40
2017Q2 3.30 5.15 1.92 2.43 2.11 5.25 2.16 2.82 3.12 5.17 1.91 2.46
2017Q3 3.53 5.11 1.95 2.48 2.53 5.24 2.18 2.92 3.33 5.13 1.94 2.52
2017Q4 3.69 5.10 1.97 2.52 2.92 5.23 2.21 3.01 3.50 5.12 1.96 2.56
2018Q1 3.75 5.11 1.98 2.55 3.28 5.25 2.23 3.08 3.64 5.13 1.97 2.60
2018Q2 3.75 5.15 1.99 2.58 3.59 5.27 2.25 3.15 3.74 5.16 1.98 2.63
2018Q3 3.75 5.19 1.99 2.60 3.86 5.31 2.26 3.20 3.83 5.21 1.98 2.65
2018Q4 3.75 5.22 1.99 2.62 4.10 5.35 2.27 3.24 3.88 5.26 1.98 2.67
2019Q1 3.75 5.25 2.00 2.64 4.29 5.40 2.28 3.27 3.92 5.29 1.99 2.69
2019Q2 3.75 5.27 2.00 2.66 4.44 5.45 2.27 3.29 3.94 5.31 1.99 2.70
2019Q3 3.75 5.28 2.01 2.67 4.57 5.50 2.27 3.30 3.95 5.32 2.00 2.71
2019Q4 3.75 5.29 2.01 2.69 4.66 5.55 2.26 3.30 3.95 5.33 2.00 2.71
2020Q1 3.75 5.30 2.01 2.70 4.72 5.59 2.24 3.30 3.94 5.34 2.00 2.72
2020Q2 3.75 5.30 2.01 2.71 4.77 5.63 2.22 3.30 3.92 5.35 2.00 2.72
2020Q3 3.75 5.31 2.01 2.72 4.79 5.67 2.20 3.29 3.90 5.36 2.00 2.73
2020Q4 3.75 5.32 2.01 2.73 4.79 5.70 2.18 3.28 3.87 5.36 2.01 2.73
2021Q1 3.75 5.32 2.01 2.74 4.78 5.72 2.16 3.26 3.85 5.37 2.01 2.73
2021Q2 3.75 5.33 2.02 2.75 4.76 5.75 2.13 3.25 3.82 5.37 2.01 2.74
2021Q3 3.75 5.33 2.02 2.76 4.72 5.76 2.11 3.23 3.79 5.37 2.01 2.74
2021Q4 3.75 5.33 2.02 2.76 4.68 5.77 2.08 3.21 3.77 5.37 2.01 2.74
2022Q1 3.75 5.34 2.02 2.77 4.62 5.78 2.06 3.19 3.75 5.37 2.01 2.74
2022Q2 3.75 5.34 2.02 2.77 4.57 5.76 2.03 3.18 3.73 5.36 2.01 2.75
2022Q3 3.75 5.34 2.02 2.78 4.51 5.73 2.01 3.15 3.72 5.36 2.01 2.75
2022Q4 3.75 5.34 2.02 2.78 4.44 5.70 1.99 3.13 3.71 5.36 2.01 2.75

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