Optimal-Control Monetary Policy in the FRB/US Model, Accessible Data
Accessible version of figures
Figure 1: Predicted Outcomes Under OC Policy Starting in Late 2012
|
September 2012 SEP-Consistent Baseline |
OC Policy Under Late-2012 Model and Information |
|
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
2012Q1 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
2012Q2 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
2012Q3 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
2012Q4 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.77 |
0.34 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.82 |
-0.03 |
2013Q1 |
0.13 |
8.01 |
1.59 |
0.54 |
0.13 |
8.00 |
1.68 |
0.16 |
2013Q2 |
0.13 |
7.94 |
1.88 |
0.74 |
0.13 |
7.89 |
2.01 |
0.35 |
2013Q3 |
0.13 |
7.86 |
1.84 |
0.92 |
0.13 |
7.77 |
2.01 |
0.54 |
2013Q4 |
0.13 |
7.75 |
1.82 |
1.10 |
0.13 |
7.61 |
1.98 |
0.71 |
2014Q1 |
0.12 |
7.59 |
1.82 |
1.27 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.98 |
0.88 |
2014Q2 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.81 |
1.44 |
0.12 |
7.15 |
1.99 |
1.05 |
2014Q3 |
0.12 |
7.20 |
1.81 |
1.60 |
0.12 |
6.90 |
1.99 |
1.21 |
2014Q4 |
0.12 |
7.00 |
1.82 |
1.76 |
0.12 |
6.65 |
1.99 |
1.37 |
2015Q1 |
0.16 |
6.82 |
1.84 |
1.91 |
0.12 |
6.43 |
2.01 |
1.52 |
2015Q2 |
0.28 |
6.67 |
1.86 |
2.06 |
0.13 |
6.23 |
2.03 |
1.68 |
2015Q3 |
0.48 |
6.53 |
1.89 |
2.21 |
0.13 |
6.05 |
2.05 |
1.83 |
2015Q4 |
0.80 |
6.40 |
1.92 |
2.34 |
0.20 |
5.88 |
2.07 |
1.98 |
2016Q1 |
1.27 |
6.28 |
1.93 |
2.47 |
0.31 |
5.73 |
2.09 |
2.14 |
2016Q2 |
1.85 |
6.18 |
1.95 |
2.58 |
0.54 |
5.59 |
2.10 |
2.29 |
2016Q3 |
2.46 |
6.08 |
1.96 |
2.67 |
0.87 |
5.47 |
2.11 |
2.43 |
2016Q4 |
3.01 |
6.00 |
1.97 |
2.74 |
1.25 |
5.37 |
2.12 |
2.57 |
2017Q1 |
3.41 |
5.93 |
1.98 |
2.80 |
1.67 |
5.30 |
2.14 |
2.70 |
2017Q2 |
3.64 |
5.88 |
1.98 |
2.84 |
2.11 |
5.25 |
2.16 |
2.82 |
2017Q3 |
3.75 |
5.84 |
1.99 |
2.87 |
2.53 |
5.24 |
2.18 |
2.92 |
2017Q4 |
3.80 |
5.80 |
1.99 |
2.89 |
2.92 |
5.23 |
2.21 |
3.01 |
2018Q1 |
3.83 |
5.77 |
2.00 |
2.91 |
3.28 |
5.25 |
2.23 |
3.08 |
2018Q2 |
3.86 |
5.74 |
2.00 |
2.93 |
3.59 |
5.27 |
2.25 |
3.15 |
2018Q3 |
3.90 |
5.72 |
2.01 |
2.95 |
3.86 |
5.31 |
2.26 |
3.20 |
2018Q4 |
3.94 |
5.70 |
2.01 |
2.96 |
4.10 |
5.35 |
2.27 |
3.24 |
2019Q1 |
3.96 |
5.68 |
2.01 |
2.97 |
4.29 |
5.40 |
2.28 |
3.27 |
2019Q2 |
3.98 |
5.67 |
2.01 |
2.99 |
4.44 |
5.45 |
2.27 |
3.29 |
2019Q3 |
3.99 |
5.66 |
2.01 |
2.99 |
4.57 |
5.50 |
2.27 |
3.30 |
2019Q4 |
3.99 |
5.65 |
2.01 |
3.00 |
4.66 |
5.55 |
2.26 |
3.30 |
2020Q1 |
3.99 |
5.64 |
2.01 |
3.01 |
4.72 |
5.59 |
2.24 |
3.30 |
2020Q2 |
3.99 |
5.64 |
2.02 |
3.02 |
4.77 |
5.63 |
2.22 |
3.30 |
2020Q3 |
3.99 |
5.63 |
2.02 |
3.02 |
4.79 |
5.67 |
2.20 |
3.29 |
2020Q4 |
4.00 |
5.63 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
4.79 |
5.70 |
2.18 |
3.28 |
2021Q1 |
4.00 |
5.62 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
4.78 |
5.72 |
2.16 |
3.26 |
2021Q2 |
4.00 |
5.62 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.76 |
5.75 |
2.13 |
3.25 |
2021Q3 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.72 |
5.76 |
2.11 |
3.23 |
2021Q4 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.68 |
5.77 |
2.08 |
3.21 |
2022Q1 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.62 |
5.78 |
2.06 |
3.19 |
2022Q2 |
4.00 |
5.58 |
2.02 |
3.06 |
4.57 |
5.76 |
2.03 |
3.18 |
2022Q3 |
4.00 |
5.56 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.51 |
5.73 |
2.01 |
3.15 |
2022Q4 |
4.00 |
5.54 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.44 |
5.70 |
1.99 |
3.13 |
Return to text.
Figure 2: Sensitivity of Outcomes Under Late-2012 OC Policy to Changes in the Loss Function Weights
|
OC Policy With Equal Loss Weights |
OC Policy With High Weight on Unemployment |
OC Policy With High Weight on Inflation |
OC Polist With Low Weight on Funds Rate Smoothing |
|
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
2012Q1 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
2012Q2 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
2012Q3 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
2012Q4 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.82 |
-0.03 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.84 |
-0.17 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.80 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.82 |
-0.05 |
2013Q1 |
0.13 |
8.00 |
1.68 |
0.16 |
0.13 |
7.99 |
1.73 |
0.03 |
0.13 |
8.00 |
1.65 |
0.30 |
0.13 |
7.99 |
1.68 |
0.15 |
2013Q2 |
0.13 |
7.89 |
2.01 |
0.35 |
0.13 |
7.88 |
2.08 |
0.22 |
0.13 |
7.91 |
1.95 |
0.49 |
0.13 |
7.89 |
2.01 |
0.34 |
2013Q3 |
0.13 |
7.77 |
2.01 |
0.54 |
0.13 |
7.74 |
2.12 |
0.40 |
0.13 |
7.80 |
1.94 |
0.67 |
0.13 |
7.76 |
2.01 |
0.52 |
2013Q4 |
0.13 |
7.61 |
1.98 |
0.71 |
0.13 |
7.57 |
2.09 |
0.58 |
0.13 |
7.65 |
1.91 |
0.85 |
0.13 |
7.60 |
1.98 |
0.70 |
2014Q1 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.98 |
0.88 |
0.13 |
7.35 |
2.10 |
0.75 |
0.13 |
7.46 |
1.91 |
1.02 |
0.13 |
7.39 |
1.98 |
0.87 |
2014Q2 |
0.12 |
7.15 |
1.99 |
1.05 |
0.13 |
7.09 |
2.11 |
0.91 |
0.13 |
7.24 |
1.91 |
1.18 |
0.13 |
7.14 |
1.98 |
1.03 |
2014Q3 |
0.12 |
6.90 |
1.99 |
1.21 |
0.13 |
6.83 |
2.12 |
1.08 |
0.13 |
7.00 |
1.91 |
1.34 |
0.13 |
6.88 |
1.98 |
1.19 |
2014Q4 |
0.12 |
6.65 |
1.99 |
1.37 |
0.13 |
6.57 |
2.12 |
1.24 |
0.13 |
6.77 |
1.91 |
1.50 |
0.13 |
6.63 |
1.98 |
1.35 |
2015Q1 |
0.12 |
6.43 |
2.01 |
1.52 |
0.13 |
6.33 |
2.14 |
1.40 |
0.12 |
6.56 |
1.93 |
1.66 |
0.13 |
6.41 |
2.00 |
1.51 |
2015Q2 |
0.13 |
6.23 |
2.03 |
1.68 |
0.13 |
6.12 |
2.17 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
6.38 |
1.95 |
1.81 |
0.13 |
6.21 |
2.03 |
1.66 |
2015Q3 |
0.13 |
6.05 |
2.05 |
1.83 |
0.13 |
5.94 |
2.20 |
1.71 |
0.13 |
6.21 |
1.98 |
1.96 |
0.13 |
6.02 |
2.05 |
1.81 |
2015Q4 |
0.20 |
5.88 |
2.07 |
1.98 |
0.13 |
5.76 |
2.22 |
1.87 |
0.24 |
6.06 |
2.00 |
2.11 |
0.13 |
5.86 |
2.07 |
1.97 |
2016Q1 |
0.31 |
5.73 |
2.09 |
2.14 |
0.13 |
5.60 |
2.24 |
2.03 |
0.49 |
5.92 |
2.02 |
2.26 |
0.13 |
5.70 |
2.09 |
2.12 |
2016Q2 |
0.54 |
5.59 |
2.10 |
2.29 |
0.13 |
5.46 |
2.26 |
2.19 |
0.85 |
5.79 |
2.03 |
2.40 |
0.13 |
5.56 |
2.10 |
2.28 |
2016Q3 |
0.87 |
5.47 |
2.11 |
2.43 |
0.14 |
5.33 |
2.27 |
2.35 |
1.29 |
5.68 |
2.04 |
2.54 |
0.22 |
5.43 |
2.11 |
2.44 |
2016Q4 |
1.25 |
5.37 |
2.12 |
2.57 |
0.34 |
5.23 |
2.29 |
2.52 |
1.76 |
5.58 |
2.06 |
2.66 |
0.49 |
5.33 |
2.13 |
2.60 |
2017Q1 |
1.67 |
5.30 |
2.14 |
2.70 |
0.87 |
5.15 |
2.32 |
2.69 |
2.25 |
5.52 |
2.07 |
2.76 |
1.11 |
5.26 |
2.15 |
2.76 |
2017Q2 |
2.11 |
5.25 |
2.16 |
2.82 |
1.59 |
5.11 |
2.35 |
2.85 |
2.71 |
5.48 |
2.09 |
2.85 |
1.91 |
5.22 |
2.18 |
2.90 |
2017Q3 |
2.53 |
5.24 |
2.18 |
2.92 |
2.35 |
5.11 |
2.39 |
2.98 |
3.13 |
5.46 |
2.11 |
2.93 |
2.69 |
5.22 |
2.22 |
3.01 |
2017Q4 |
2.92 |
5.23 |
2.21 |
3.01 |
3.05 |
5.13 |
2.43 |
3.08 |
3.47 |
5.45 |
2.13 |
2.99 |
3.35 |
5.23 |
2.25 |
3.10 |
2018Q1 |
3.28 |
5.25 |
2.23 |
3.08 |
3.66 |
5.17 |
2.46 |
3.17 |
3.73 |
5.45 |
2.14 |
3.04 |
3.87 |
5.27 |
2.28 |
3.17 |
2018Q2 |
3.59 |
5.27 |
2.25 |
3.15 |
4.17 |
5.22 |
2.49 |
3.23 |
3.93 |
5.47 |
2.15 |
3.08 |
4.25 |
5.31 |
2.30 |
3.21 |
2018Q3 |
3.86 |
5.31 |
2.26 |
3.20 |
4.57 |
5.28 |
2.51 |
3.27 |
4.08 |
5.48 |
2.16 |
3.10 |
4.52 |
5.37 |
2.31 |
3.24 |
2018Q4 |
4.10 |
5.35 |
2.27 |
3.24 |
4.88 |
5.35 |
2.52 |
3.29 |
4.17 |
5.51 |
2.16 |
3.13 |
4.68 |
5.42 |
2.31 |
3.25 |
2019Q1 |
4.29 |
5.40 |
2.28 |
3.27 |
5.09 |
5.41 |
2.52 |
3.30 |
4.23 |
5.53 |
2.16 |
3.14 |
4.78 |
5.47 |
2.31 |
3.26 |
2019Q2 |
4.44 |
5.45 |
2.27 |
3.29 |
5.22 |
5.47 |
2.51 |
3.30 |
4.26 |
5.55 |
2.16 |
3.15 |
4.82 |
5.52 |
2.29 |
3.26 |
2019Q3 |
4.57 |
5.50 |
2.27 |
3.30 |
5.28 |
5.52 |
2.49 |
3.29 |
4.28 |
5.58 |
2.15 |
3.16 |
4.82 |
5.57 |
2.27 |
3.26 |
2019Q4 |
4.66 |
5.55 |
2.26 |
3.30 |
5.27 |
5.57 |
2.46 |
3.28 |
4.28 |
5.60 |
2.14 |
3.17 |
4.79 |
5.60 |
2.25 |
3.25 |
2020Q1 |
4.72 |
5.59 |
2.24 |
3.30 |
5.21 |
5.60 |
2.43 |
3.26 |
4.28 |
5.63 |
2.13 |
3.18 |
4.74 |
5.64 |
2.22 |
3.25 |
2020Q2 |
4.77 |
5.63 |
2.22 |
3.30 |
5.11 |
5.62 |
2.40 |
3.24 |
4.28 |
5.65 |
2.12 |
3.18 |
4.68 |
5.66 |
2.20 |
3.24 |
2020Q3 |
4.79 |
5.67 |
2.20 |
3.29 |
4.98 |
5.64 |
2.36 |
3.23 |
4.29 |
5.67 |
2.11 |
3.18 |
4.62 |
5.68 |
2.17 |
3.23 |
2020Q4 |
4.79 |
5.70 |
2.18 |
3.28 |
4.84 |
5.65 |
2.33 |
3.21 |
4.30 |
5.69 |
2.10 |
3.18 |
4.56 |
5.70 |
2.14 |
3.22 |
2021Q1 |
4.78 |
5.72 |
2.16 |
3.26 |
4.70 |
5.66 |
2.29 |
3.20 |
4.32 |
5.71 |
2.09 |
3.18 |
4.51 |
5.72 |
2.12 |
3.21 |
2021Q2 |
4.76 |
5.75 |
2.13 |
3.25 |
4.56 |
5.66 |
2.26 |
3.19 |
4.35 |
5.73 |
2.07 |
3.18 |
4.46 |
5.73 |
2.09 |
3.20 |
2021Q3 |
4.72 |
5.76 |
2.11 |
3.23 |
4.44 |
5.66 |
2.23 |
3.18 |
4.39 |
5.74 |
2.06 |
3.17 |
4.42 |
5.74 |
2.07 |
3.19 |
2021Q4 |
4.68 |
5.77 |
2.08 |
3.21 |
4.34 |
5.66 |
2.20 |
3.18 |
4.43 |
5.76 |
2.05 |
3.16 |
4.39 |
5.75 |
2.05 |
3.18 |
2022Q1 |
4.62 |
5.78 |
2.06 |
3.19 |
4.27 |
5.66 |
2.17 |
3.18 |
4.46 |
5.77 |
2.04 |
3.15 |
4.37 |
5.76 |
2.03 |
3.17 |
2022Q2 |
4.57 |
5.76 |
2.03 |
3.18 |
4.24 |
5.63 |
2.15 |
3.19 |
4.50 |
5.75 |
2.03 |
3.15 |
4.37 |
5.74 |
2.01 |
3.17 |
2022Q3 |
4.51 |
5.73 |
2.01 |
3.15 |
4.19 |
5.60 |
2.13 |
3.18 |
4.55 |
5.73 |
2.02 |
3.12 |
4.42 |
5.71 |
1.99 |
3.15 |
2022Q4 |
4.44 |
5.70 |
1.99 |
3.13 |
4.31 |
5.58 |
2.12 |
3.17 |
4.49 |
5.71 |
2.01 |
3.09 |
4.37 |
5.68 |
1.97 |
3.13 |
Return to text.
Figure 3: Sensitivity of Outcomes Under Late-2012 OC Policy to Changes in the FRB/US Model
|
September 2012 SEP-Consistent Baseline |
OC Policy (Late-2012 Model) |
OC Policy (Late-2014 Model) |
|
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
2012Q1 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.25 |
2.43 |
0.07 |
2012Q2 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.18 |
1.75 |
-0.23 |
2012Q3 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
8.21 |
1.67 |
0.12 |
2012Q4 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.77 |
0.34 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.82 |
-0.03 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.78 |
-0.25 |
2013Q1 |
0.13 |
8.01 |
1.59 |
0.54 |
0.13 |
8.00 |
1.68 |
0.16 |
0.13 |
7.98 |
1.73 |
-0.06 |
2013Q2 |
0.13 |
7.94 |
1.88 |
0.74 |
0.13 |
7.89 |
2.01 |
0.35 |
0.13 |
7.87 |
1.88 |
0.12 |
2013Q3 |
0.13 |
7.86 |
1.84 |
0.92 |
0.13 |
7.77 |
2.01 |
0.54 |
0.12 |
7.75 |
1.92 |
0.30 |
2013Q4 |
0.13 |
7.75 |
1.82 |
1.10 |
0.13 |
7.61 |
1.98 |
0.71 |
0.12 |
7.59 |
1.96 |
0.47 |
2014Q1 |
0.12 |
7.59 |
1.82 |
1.27 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.98 |
0.88 |
0.12 |
7.39 |
1.98 |
0.63 |
2014Q2 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.81 |
1.44 |
0.12 |
7.15 |
1.99 |
1.05 |
0.12 |
7.15 |
1.99 |
0.80 |
2014Q3 |
0.12 |
7.20 |
1.81 |
1.60 |
0.12 |
6.90 |
1.99 |
1.21 |
0.12 |
6.90 |
1.99 |
0.95 |
2014Q4 |
0.12 |
7.00 |
1.82 |
1.76 |
0.12 |
6.65 |
1.99 |
1.37 |
0.12 |
6.66 |
2.00 |
1.11 |
2015Q1 |
0.16 |
6.82 |
1.84 |
1.91 |
0.12 |
6.43 |
2.01 |
1.52 |
0.12 |
6.44 |
2.02 |
1.26 |
2015Q2 |
0.28 |
6.67 |
1.86 |
2.06 |
0.13 |
6.23 |
2.03 |
1.68 |
0.13 |
6.24 |
2.04 |
1.42 |
2015Q3 |
0.48 |
6.53 |
1.89 |
2.21 |
0.13 |
6.05 |
2.05 |
1.83 |
0.13 |
6.06 |
2.07 |
1.57 |
2015Q4 |
0.80 |
6.40 |
1.92 |
2.34 |
0.20 |
5.88 |
2.07 |
1.98 |
0.19 |
5.89 |
2.09 |
1.72 |
2016Q1 |
1.27 |
6.28 |
1.93 |
2.47 |
0.31 |
5.73 |
2.09 |
2.14 |
0.23 |
5.72 |
2.10 |
1.87 |
2016Q2 |
1.85 |
6.18 |
1.95 |
2.58 |
0.54 |
5.59 |
2.10 |
2.29 |
0.36 |
5.57 |
2.11 |
2.02 |
2016Q3 |
2.46 |
6.08 |
1.96 |
2.67 |
0.87 |
5.47 |
2.11 |
2.43 |
0.58 |
5.43 |
2.12 |
2.17 |
2016Q4 |
3.01 |
6.00 |
1.97 |
2.74 |
1.25 |
5.37 |
2.12 |
2.57 |
0.86 |
5.31 |
2.12 |
2.31 |
2017Q1 |
3.41 |
5.93 |
1.98 |
2.80 |
1.67 |
5.30 |
2.14 |
2.70 |
1.20 |
5.22 |
2.13 |
2.44 |
2017Q2 |
3.64 |
5.88 |
1.98 |
2.84 |
2.11 |
5.25 |
2.16 |
2.82 |
1.55 |
5.16 |
2.13 |
2.57 |
2017Q3 |
3.75 |
5.84 |
1.99 |
2.87 |
2.53 |
5.24 |
2.18 |
2.92 |
1.92 |
5.14 |
2.13 |
2.68 |
2017Q4 |
3.80 |
5.80 |
1.99 |
2.89 |
2.92 |
5.23 |
2.21 |
3.01 |
2.28 |
5.13 |
2.13 |
2.78 |
2018Q1 |
3.83 |
5.77 |
2.00 |
2.91 |
3.28 |
5.25 |
2.23 |
3.08 |
2.62 |
5.13 |
2.13 |
2.87 |
2018Q2 |
3.86 |
5.74 |
2.00 |
2.93 |
3.59 |
5.27 |
2.25 |
3.15 |
2.94 |
5.15 |
2.12 |
2.95 |
2018Q3 |
3.90 |
5.72 |
2.01 |
2.95 |
3.86 |
5.31 |
2.26 |
3.20 |
3.23 |
5.17 |
2.12 |
3.02 |
2018Q4 |
3.94 |
5.70 |
2.01 |
2.96 |
4.10 |
5.35 |
2.27 |
3.24 |
3.49 |
5.20 |
2.12 |
3.08 |
2019Q1 |
3.96 |
5.68 |
2.01 |
2.97 |
4.29 |
5.40 |
2.28 |
3.27 |
3.72 |
5.24 |
2.12 |
3.12 |
2019Q2 |
3.98 |
5.67 |
2.01 |
2.99 |
4.44 |
5.45 |
2.27 |
3.29 |
3.91 |
5.28 |
2.11 |
3.16 |
2019Q3 |
3.99 |
5.66 |
2.01 |
2.99 |
4.57 |
5.50 |
2.27 |
3.30 |
4.08 |
5.33 |
2.11 |
3.19 |
2019Q4 |
3.99 |
5.65 |
2.01 |
3.00 |
4.66 |
5.55 |
2.26 |
3.30 |
4.22 |
5.37 |
2.11 |
3.22 |
2020Q1 |
3.99 |
5.64 |
2.01 |
3.01 |
4.72 |
5.59 |
2.24 |
3.30 |
4.33 |
5.42 |
2.11 |
3.23 |
2020Q2 |
3.99 |
5.64 |
2.02 |
3.02 |
4.77 |
5.63 |
2.22 |
3.30 |
4.41 |
5.46 |
2.10 |
3.25 |
2020Q3 |
3.99 |
5.63 |
2.02 |
3.02 |
4.79 |
5.67 |
2.20 |
3.29 |
4.48 |
5.50 |
2.10 |
3.25 |
2020Q4 |
4.00 |
5.63 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
4.79 |
5.70 |
2.18 |
3.28 |
4.52 |
5.54 |
2.10 |
3.25 |
2021Q1 |
4.00 |
5.62 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
4.78 |
5.72 |
2.16 |
3.26 |
4.55 |
5.57 |
2.09 |
3.25 |
2021Q2 |
4.00 |
5.62 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.76 |
5.75 |
2.13 |
3.25 |
4.57 |
5.60 |
2.09 |
3.25 |
2021Q3 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.72 |
5.76 |
2.11 |
3.23 |
4.57 |
5.63 |
2.09 |
3.25 |
2021Q4 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.68 |
5.77 |
2.08 |
3.21 |
4.57 |
5.65 |
2.08 |
3.24 |
2022Q1 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.62 |
5.78 |
2.06 |
3.19 |
4.56 |
5.67 |
2.08 |
3.23 |
2022Q2 |
4.00 |
5.58 |
2.02 |
3.06 |
4.57 |
5.76 |
2.03 |
3.18 |
4.54 |
5.64 |
2.08 |
3.24 |
2022Q3 |
4.00 |
5.56 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.51 |
5.73 |
2.01 |
3.15 |
4.52 |
5.63 |
2.07 |
3.18 |
2022Q4 |
4.00 |
5.54 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.44 |
5.70 |
1.99 |
3.13 |
4.49 |
5.63 |
2.07 |
3.17 |
Return to text.
Figure 4: Sensitivity of OC Policy to Changes in the Economic Outlook (results computed using the late-2012 version of the FRB/US model)
|
September 2012 SEP-Consistent Baseline |
More Optomistic Late-2012 Outlook |
OC Policy (SEP Outlook) |
OC Policy (More Optimistic Outlook) |
|
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
2012Q1 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
2012Q2 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
2012Q3 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
2012Q4 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.77 |
0.34 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.77 |
0.29 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.82 |
-0.03 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.79 |
0.06 |
2013Q1 |
0.13 |
8.01 |
1.59 |
0.54 |
0.13 |
7.98 |
1.60 |
0.52 |
0.13 |
8.00 |
1.68 |
0.16 |
0.13 |
7.97 |
1.62 |
0.28 |
2013Q2 |
0.13 |
7.94 |
1.88 |
0.74 |
0.13 |
7.85 |
1.88 |
0.72 |
0.13 |
7.89 |
2.01 |
0.35 |
0.13 |
7.81 |
1.92 |
0.48 |
2013Q3 |
0.13 |
7.86 |
1.84 |
0.92 |
0.14 |
7.70 |
1.85 |
0.91 |
0.13 |
7.77 |
2.01 |
0.54 |
0.13 |
7.64 |
1.90 |
0.67 |
2013Q4 |
0.13 |
7.75 |
1.82 |
1.10 |
0.11 |
7.53 |
1.83 |
1.09 |
0.13 |
7.61 |
1.98 |
0.71 |
0.13 |
7.43 |
1.87 |
0.84 |
2014Q1 |
0.12 |
7.59 |
1.82 |
1.27 |
0.10 |
7.31 |
1.85 |
1.27 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.98 |
0.88 |
0.13 |
7.17 |
1.88 |
1.02 |
2014Q2 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.81 |
1.44 |
0.33 |
7.05 |
1.86 |
1.48 |
0.12 |
7.15 |
1.99 |
1.05 |
0.14 |
6.88 |
1.90 |
1.23 |
2014Q3 |
0.12 |
7.20 |
1.81 |
1.60 |
0.66 |
6.78 |
1.88 |
1.70 |
0.12 |
6.90 |
1.99 |
1.21 |
0.23 |
6.57 |
1.91 |
1.45 |
2014Q4 |
0.12 |
7.00 |
1.82 |
1.76 |
1.07 |
6.51 |
1.89 |
1.94 |
0.12 |
6.65 |
1.99 |
1.37 |
0.42 |
6.26 |
1.92 |
1.71 |
2015Q1 |
0.16 |
6.82 |
1.84 |
1.91 |
1.50 |
6.27 |
1.92 |
2.16 |
0.12 |
6.43 |
2.01 |
1.52 |
0.70 |
5.99 |
1.95 |
1.95 |
2015Q2 |
0.28 |
6.67 |
1.86 |
2.06 |
1.92 |
6.05 |
1.95 |
2.37 |
0.13 |
6.23 |
2.03 |
1.68 |
1.05 |
5.74 |
1.98 |
2.19 |
2015Q3 |
0.48 |
6.53 |
1.89 |
2.21 |
2.33 |
5.85 |
1.98 |
2.55 |
0.13 |
6.05 |
2.05 |
1.83 |
1.43 |
5.51 |
2.02 |
2.40 |
2015Q4 |
0.80 |
6.40 |
1.92 |
2.34 |
2.73 |
5.67 |
2.02 |
2.70 |
0.20 |
5.88 |
2.07 |
1.98 |
1.83 |
5.31 |
2.06 |
2.58 |
2016Q1 |
1.27 |
6.28 |
1.93 |
2.47 |
3.08 |
5.57 |
2.05 |
2.77 |
0.31 |
5.73 |
2.09 |
2.14 |
2.22 |
5.20 |
2.10 |
2.70 |
2016Q2 |
1.85 |
6.18 |
1.95 |
2.58 |
3.37 |
5.54 |
2.08 |
2.82 |
0.54 |
5.59 |
2.10 |
2.29 |
2.60 |
5.18 |
2.14 |
2.79 |
2016Q3 |
2.46 |
6.08 |
1.96 |
2.67 |
3.60 |
5.52 |
2.10 |
2.85 |
0.87 |
5.47 |
2.11 |
2.43 |
2.94 |
5.17 |
2.18 |
2.85 |
2016Q4 |
3.01 |
6.00 |
1.97 |
2.74 |
3.78 |
5.50 |
2.13 |
2.85 |
1.25 |
5.37 |
2.12 |
2.57 |
3.26 |
5.18 |
2.21 |
2.88 |
2017Q1 |
3.41 |
5.93 |
1.98 |
2.80 |
3.91 |
5.50 |
2.14 |
2.86 |
1.67 |
5.30 |
2.14 |
2.70 |
3.53 |
5.20 |
2.23 |
2.92 |
2017Q2 |
3.64 |
5.88 |
1.98 |
2.84 |
4.01 |
5.50 |
2.14 |
2.88 |
2.11 |
5.25 |
2.16 |
2.82 |
3.77 |
5.24 |
2.24 |
2.96 |
2017Q3 |
3.75 |
5.84 |
1.99 |
2.87 |
4.08 |
5.51 |
2.15 |
2.91 |
2.53 |
5.24 |
2.18 |
2.92 |
3.97 |
5.28 |
2.25 |
3.01 |
2017Q4 |
3.80 |
5.80 |
1.99 |
2.89 |
4.12 |
5.52 |
2.14 |
2.94 |
2.92 |
5.23 |
2.21 |
3.01 |
4.13 |
5.33 |
2.25 |
3.05 |
2018Q1 |
3.83 |
5.77 |
2.00 |
2.91 |
4.14 |
5.54 |
2.13 |
2.96 |
3.28 |
5.25 |
2.23 |
3.08 |
4.25 |
5.39 |
2.24 |
3.09 |
2018Q2 |
3.86 |
5.74 |
2.00 |
2.93 |
4.15 |
5.55 |
2.11 |
2.98 |
3.59 |
5.27 |
2.25 |
3.15 |
4.34 |
5.43 |
2.22 |
3.11 |
2018Q3 |
3.90 |
5.72 |
2.01 |
2.95 |
4.14 |
5.56 |
2.10 |
2.99 |
3.86 |
5.31 |
2.26 |
3.20 |
4.41 |
5.48 |
2.20 |
3.12 |
2018Q4 |
3.94 |
5.70 |
2.01 |
2.96 |
4.14 |
5.57 |
2.08 |
2.99 |
4.10 |
5.35 |
2.27 |
3.24 |
4.45 |
5.52 |
2.18 |
3.13 |
2019Q1 |
3.96 |
5.68 |
2.01 |
2.97 |
4.13 |
5.57 |
2.07 |
3.00 |
4.29 |
5.40 |
2.28 |
3.27 |
4.47 |
5.55 |
2.16 |
3.13 |
2019Q2 |
3.98 |
5.67 |
2.01 |
2.99 |
4.12 |
5.57 |
2.06 |
3.01 |
4.44 |
5.45 |
2.27 |
3.29 |
4.48 |
5.58 |
2.13 |
3.13 |
2019Q3 |
3.99 |
5.66 |
2.01 |
2.99 |
4.12 |
5.57 |
2.04 |
3.02 |
4.57 |
5.50 |
2.27 |
3.30 |
4.47 |
5.60 |
2.11 |
3.13 |
2019Q4 |
3.99 |
5.65 |
2.01 |
3.00 |
4.11 |
5.57 |
2.03 |
3.02 |
4.66 |
5.55 |
2.26 |
3.30 |
4.46 |
5.61 |
2.09 |
3.13 |
2020Q1 |
3.99 |
5.64 |
2.01 |
3.01 |
4.11 |
5.56 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
4.72 |
5.59 |
2.24 |
3.30 |
4.43 |
5.63 |
2.06 |
3.12 |
2020Q2 |
3.99 |
5.64 |
2.02 |
3.02 |
4.10 |
5.56 |
2.01 |
3.04 |
4.77 |
5.63 |
2.22 |
3.30 |
4.41 |
5.64 |
2.04 |
3.12 |
2020Q3 |
3.99 |
5.63 |
2.02 |
3.02 |
4.10 |
5.55 |
2.01 |
3.04 |
4.79 |
5.67 |
2.20 |
3.29 |
4.38 |
5.64 |
2.03 |
3.11 |
2020Q4 |
4.00 |
5.63 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
4.09 |
5.55 |
2.00 |
3.05 |
4.79 |
5.70 |
2.18 |
3.28 |
4.35 |
5.65 |
2.01 |
3.11 |
2021Q1 |
4.00 |
5.62 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
4.09 |
5.55 |
2.00 |
3.05 |
4.78 |
5.72 |
2.16 |
3.26 |
4.32 |
5.65 |
2.00 |
3.10 |
2021Q2 |
4.00 |
5.62 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.09 |
5.54 |
2.00 |
3.05 |
4.76 |
5.75 |
2.13 |
3.25 |
4.29 |
5.65 |
1.98 |
3.10 |
2021Q3 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.08 |
5.54 |
2.00 |
3.06 |
4.72 |
5.76 |
2.11 |
3.23 |
4.26 |
5.65 |
1.97 |
3.09 |
2021Q4 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.04 |
4.08 |
5.54 |
2.00 |
3.06 |
4.68 |
5.77 |
2.08 |
3.21 |
4.23 |
5.65 |
1.96 |
3.08 |
2022Q1 |
4.00 |
5.61 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.08 |
5.54 |
2.00 |
3.06 |
4.62 |
5.78 |
2.06 |
3.19 |
4.20 |
5.65 |
1.96 |
3.08 |
2022Q2 |
4.00 |
5.58 |
2.02 |
3.06 |
4.07 |
5.54 |
2.00 |
3.07 |
4.57 |
5.76 |
2.03 |
3.18 |
4.18 |
5.65 |
1.95 |
3.08 |
2022Q3 |
4.00 |
5.56 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.06 |
5.54 |
2.00 |
3.06 |
4.51 |
5.73 |
2.01 |
3.15 |
4.16 |
5.64 |
1.95 |
3.06 |
2022Q4 |
4.00 |
5.54 |
2.02 |
3.05 |
4.05 |
5.54 |
2.00 |
3.05 |
4.44 |
5.70 |
1.99 |
3.13 |
4.12 |
5.65 |
1.94 |
3.05 |
Return to text.
Figure 5: OC Policy and Predicted Outcomes -- Last-2012 Estimates Versus Late-2014 Estimates (estimates derived using the information and model version at the time of the OC calculation)
|
History and Late-2014 SEP-Consistent Baseline |
Late-2012 OC Policy |
Late-2014 OC Policy |
|
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
Federal Funds Rate |
Unemployment Rate |
PCE Inflation Rate (4 Quarter) |
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield |
2012Q1 |
0.10 |
8.25 |
2.43 |
0.07 |
0.10 |
8.24 |
2.36 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
8.25 |
2.43 |
0.07 |
2012Q2 |
0.15 |
8.18 |
1.75 |
-0.23 |
0.15 |
8.17 |
1.64 |
-0.27 |
0.15 |
8.18 |
1.75 |
-0.23 |
2012Q3 |
0.14 |
8.01 |
1.54 |
-0.44 |
0.13 |
8.22 |
1.55 |
0.12 |
0.14 |
8.01 |
1.54 |
-0.44 |
2012Q4 |
0.16 |
7.82 |
1.64 |
-0.44 |
0.13 |
8.10 |
1.82 |
-0.03 |
0.16 |
7.82 |
1.64 |
-0.44 |
2013Q1 |
0.14 |
7.73 |
1.37 |
-0.14 |
0.13 |
8.00 |
1.68 |
0.16 |
0.14 |
7.73 |
1.37 |
-0.14 |
2013Q2 |
0.12 |
7.52 |
1.15 |
0.01 |
0.13 |
7.89 |
2.01 |
0.35 |
0.12 |
7.52 |
1.15 |
0.01 |
2013Q3 |
0.08 |
7.26 |
1.24 |
0.75 |
0.13 |
7.77 |
2.01 |
0.54 |
0.08 |
7.26 |
1.24 |
0.75 |
2013Q4 |
0.09 |
6.96 |
1.04 |
0.70 |
0.13 |
7.61 |
1.98 |
0.71 |
0.09 |
6.96 |
1.04 |
0.70 |
2014Q1 |
0.07 |
6.67 |
1.13 |
0.70 |
0.12 |
7.40 |
1.98 |
0.88 |
0.07 |
6.67 |
1.13 |
0.70 |
2014Q2 |
0.09 |
6.22 |
1.59 |
0.54 |
0.12 |
7.15 |
1.99 |
1.05 |
0.09 |
6.22 |
1.59 |
0.54 |
2014Q3 |
0.13 |
6.16 |
1.51 |
0.95 |
0.12 |
6.90 |
1.99 |
1.21 |
0.13 |
6.16 |
1.51 |
0.95 |
2014Q4 |
0.12 |
5.95 |
1.61 |
1.14 |
0.12 |
6.65 |
1.99 |
1.37 |
0.33 |
5.95 |
1.61 |
1.23 |
2015Q1 |
0.12 |
5.79 |
1.70 |
1.33 |
0.12 |
6.43 |
2.01 |
1.52 |
0.57 |
5.80 |
1.70 |
1.42 |
2015Q2 |
0.23 |
5.67 |
1.56 |
1.51 |
0.13 |
6.23 |
2.03 |
1.68 |
0.83 |
5.70 |
1.55 |
1.59 |
2015Q3 |
0.68 |
5.58 |
1.67 |
1.69 |
0.13 |
6.05 |
2.05 |
1.83 |
1.12 |
5.63 |
1.66 |
1.75 |
2015Q4 |
1.14 |
5.50 |
1.77 |
1.84 |
0.20 |
5.88 |
2.07 |
1.98 |
1.42 |
5.56 |
1.76 |
1.89 |
2016Q1 |
1.57 |
5.43 |
1.79 |
1.98 |
0.31 |
5.73 |
2.09 |
2.14 |
1.73 |
5.48 |
1.78 |
2.02 |
2016Q2 |
1.97 |
5.37 |
1.82 |
2.10 |
0.54 |
5.59 |
2.10 |
2.29 |
2.04 |
5.42 |
1.81 |
2.13 |
2016Q3 |
2.35 |
5.31 |
1.84 |
2.21 |
0.87 |
5.47 |
2.11 |
2.43 |
2.34 |
5.35 |
1.83 |
2.23 |
2016Q4 |
2.70 |
5.25 |
1.87 |
2.30 |
1.25 |
5.37 |
2.12 |
2.57 |
2.63 |
5.29 |
1.86 |
2.32 |
2017Q1 |
3.03 |
5.19 |
1.90 |
2.37 |
1.67 |
5.30 |
2.14 |
2.70 |
2.89 |
5.22 |
1.88 |
2.40 |
2017Q2 |
3.30 |
5.15 |
1.92 |
2.43 |
2.11 |
5.25 |
2.16 |
2.82 |
3.12 |
5.17 |
1.91 |
2.46 |
2017Q3 |
3.53 |
5.11 |
1.95 |
2.48 |
2.53 |
5.24 |
2.18 |
2.92 |
3.33 |
5.13 |
1.94 |
2.52 |
2017Q4 |
3.69 |
5.10 |
1.97 |
2.52 |
2.92 |
5.23 |
2.21 |
3.01 |
3.50 |
5.12 |
1.96 |
2.56 |
2018Q1 |
3.75 |
5.11 |
1.98 |
2.55 |
3.28 |
5.25 |
2.23 |
3.08 |
3.64 |
5.13 |
1.97 |
2.60 |
2018Q2 |
3.75 |
5.15 |
1.99 |
2.58 |
3.59 |
5.27 |
2.25 |
3.15 |
3.74 |
5.16 |
1.98 |
2.63 |
2018Q3 |
3.75 |
5.19 |
1.99 |
2.60 |
3.86 |
5.31 |
2.26 |
3.20 |
3.83 |
5.21 |
1.98 |
2.65 |
2018Q4 |
3.75 |
5.22 |
1.99 |
2.62 |
4.10 |
5.35 |
2.27 |
3.24 |
3.88 |
5.26 |
1.98 |
2.67 |
2019Q1 |
3.75 |
5.25 |
2.00 |
2.64 |
4.29 |
5.40 |
2.28 |
3.27 |
3.92 |
5.29 |
1.99 |
2.69 |
2019Q2 |
3.75 |
5.27 |
2.00 |
2.66 |
4.44 |
5.45 |
2.27 |
3.29 |
3.94 |
5.31 |
1.99 |
2.70 |
2019Q3 |
3.75 |
5.28 |
2.01 |
2.67 |
4.57 |
5.50 |
2.27 |
3.30 |
3.95 |
5.32 |
2.00 |
2.71 |
2019Q4 |
3.75 |
5.29 |
2.01 |
2.69 |
4.66 |
5.55 |
2.26 |
3.30 |
3.95 |
5.33 |
2.00 |
2.71 |
2020Q1 |
3.75 |
5.30 |
2.01 |
2.70 |
4.72 |
5.59 |
2.24 |
3.30 |
3.94 |
5.34 |
2.00 |
2.72 |
2020Q2 |
3.75 |
5.30 |
2.01 |
2.71 |
4.77 |
5.63 |
2.22 |
3.30 |
3.92 |
5.35 |
2.00 |
2.72 |
2020Q3 |
3.75 |
5.31 |
2.01 |
2.72 |
4.79 |
5.67 |
2.20 |
3.29 |
3.90 |
5.36 |
2.00 |
2.73 |
2020Q4 |
3.75 |
5.32 |
2.01 |
2.73 |
4.79 |
5.70 |
2.18 |
3.28 |
3.87 |
5.36 |
2.01 |
2.73 |
2021Q1 |
3.75 |
5.32 |
2.01 |
2.74 |
4.78 |
5.72 |
2.16 |
3.26 |
3.85 |
5.37 |
2.01 |
2.73 |
2021Q2 |
3.75 |
5.33 |
2.02 |
2.75 |
4.76 |
5.75 |
2.13 |
3.25 |
3.82 |
5.37 |
2.01 |
2.74 |
2021Q3 |
3.75 |
5.33 |
2.02 |
2.76 |
4.72 |
5.76 |
2.11 |
3.23 |
3.79 |
5.37 |
2.01 |
2.74 |
2021Q4 |
3.75 |
5.33 |
2.02 |
2.76 |
4.68 |
5.77 |
2.08 |
3.21 |
3.77 |
5.37 |
2.01 |
2.74 |
2022Q1 |
3.75 |
5.34 |
2.02 |
2.77 |
4.62 |
5.78 |
2.06 |
3.19 |
3.75 |
5.37 |
2.01 |
2.74 |
2022Q2 |
3.75 |
5.34 |
2.02 |
2.77 |
4.57 |
5.76 |
2.03 |
3.18 |
3.73 |
5.36 |
2.01 |
2.75 |
2022Q3 |
3.75 |
5.34 |
2.02 |
2.78 |
4.51 |
5.73 |
2.01 |
3.15 |
3.72 |
5.36 |
2.01 |
2.75 |
2022Q4 |
3.75 |
5.34 |
2.02 |
2.78 |
4.44 |
5.70 |
1.99 |
3.13 |
3.71 |
5.36 |
2.01 |
2.75 |
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