Perspectives on the Recent Weakness in Investment, Accessible Data

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Real Business Fixed Investment

Left panel: Investment Growth

Date 4-quarter percent change
1978Q1 8.9
1978Q2 14.2
1978Q3 15.8
1978Q4 16.0
1979Q1 17.7
1979Q2 9.1
1979Q3 8.6
1979Q4 5.5
1980Q1 4.2
1980Q2 -0.5
1980Q3 -2.7
1980Q4 -0.9
1981Q1 0.0
1981Q2 7.0
1981Q3 8.7
1981Q4 8.9
1982Q1 3.9
1982Q2 -1.4
1982Q3 -6.4
1982Q4 -10.0
1983Q1 -9.0
1983Q2 -4.7
1983Q3 2.3
1983Q4 10.4
1984Q1 15.6
1984Q2 19.3
1984Q3 18.0
1984Q4 13.9
1985Q1 11.6
1985Q2 8.2
1985Q3 3.8
1985Q4 3.2
1986Q1 1.1
1986Q2 -2.4
1986Q3 -2.4
1986Q4 -3.2
1987Q1 -4.5
1987Q2 -0.6
1987Q3 3.4
1987Q4 2.2
1988Q1 5.6
1988Q2 5.8
1988Q3 3.6
1988Q4 5.1
1989Q1 6.0
1989Q2 5.1
1989Q3 7.1
1989Q4 4.6
1990Q1 4.2
1990Q2 1.5
1990Q3 -0.4
1990Q4 -0.9
1991Q1 -4.1
1991Q2 -3.4
1991Q3 -4.8
1991Q4 -3.4
1992Q1 -1.8
1992Q2 1.9
1992Q3 4.4
1992Q4 7.2
1993Q1 8.7
1993Q2 7.3
1993Q3 6.5
1993Q4 7.5
1994Q1 7.7
1994Q2 7.2
1994Q3 8.2
1994Q4 8.5
1995Q1 11.3
1995Q2 10.6
1995Q3 9.5
1995Q4 7.5
1996Q1 6.2
1996Q2 8.1
1996Q3 10.7
1996Q4 11.3
1997Q1 11.1
1997Q2 10.4
1997Q3 11.8
1997Q4 9.8
1998Q1 10.8
1998Q2 12.1
1998Q3 8.9
1998Q4 11.3
1999Q1 10.2
1999Q2 9.5
1999Q3 10.9
1999Q4 8.2
2000Q1 9.7
2000Q2 10.2
2000Q3 8.4
2000Q4 8.2
2001Q1 3.7
2001Q2 -1.8
2001Q3 -4.1
2001Q4 -7.1
2002Q1 -8.2
2002Q2 -7.4
2002Q3 -6.7
2002Q4 -5.1
2003Q1 -2.9
2003Q2 0.8
2003Q3 3.5
2003Q4 6.2
2004Q1 4.8
2004Q2 4.6
2004Q3 5.3
2004Q4 6.0
2005Q1 8.6
2005Q2 7.7
2005Q3 6.8
2005Q4 5.0
2006Q1 7.5
2006Q2 7.3
2006Q3 6.7
2006Q4 6.9
2007Q1 4.9
2007Q2 5.6
2007Q3 6.0
2007Q4 7.1
2008Q1 5.3
2008Q2 2.7
2008Q3 -1.6
2008Q4 -8.9
2009Q1 -15.5
2009Q2 -17.7
2009Q3 -16.5
2009Q4 -12.2
2010Q1 -4.3
2010Q2 1.5
2010Q3 4.9
2010Q4 8.1
2011Q1 6.8
2011Q2 6.4
2011Q3 8.4
2011Q4 8.6
2012Q1 10.4
2012Q2 9.0
2012Q3 5.0
2012Q4 5.0
2013Q1 2.4
2013Q2 2.4
2013Q3 3.5
2013Q4 2.5

Right panel: Net Investment as a Share of the Capital Stock

Date Percent
1940 1.3
1941 2.0
1942 -0.5
1943 -1.2
1944 -0.2
1945 1.7
1946 3.9
1947 4.6
1948 4.5
1949 3.1
1950 3.5
1951 3.5
1952 3.1
1953 3.6
1954 3.0
1955 3.6
1956 3.9
1957 3.6
1958 2.3
1959 2.6
1960 3.0
1961 2.8
1962 3.2
1963 3.3
1964 3.9
1965 5.1
1966 5.6
1967 4.8
1968 4.6
1969 4.8
1970 4.0
1971 3.4
1972 3.8
1973 4.6
1974 4.0
1975 2.6
1976 2.7
1977 3.3
1978 4.2
1979 4.6
1980 3.9
1981 4.0
1982 3.1
1983 2.6
1984 3.8
1985 3.9
1986 3.1
1987 2.7
1988 2.7
1989 2.8
1990 2.6
1991 1.8
1992 1.6
1993 2.1
1994 2.3
1995 2.9
1996 3.3
1997 3.7
1998 4.0
1999 4.1
2000 4.3
2001 3.0
2002 1.8
2003 1.7
2004 1.8
2005 2.0
2006 2.5
2007 2.7
2008 2.2
2009 0.4
2010 0.6
2011 1.1
2012 1.4
2013 1.4

Return to text.

Figure 2: Real E&I Investment, Model Simulation, and Contributions

Left panel: E&I Investment and Model Simulation: Q4/Q4 percent change

Date Data Model simulation
2005 6.1
2006 6.5
2007 3.9 3.9
2008 -11.8 -5.7
2009 -6.0 -8.6
2010 12.0 5.3
2011 8.7 4.7
2012 3.9 6.5
2013 3.4 3.0

Right panel: Estimated Contributions: Q4/Q4 percent change

Date Constant Cost of capital Business output Model error Data
2008 3.7 0.8 -10.2 -6.0 -11.8
2009 3.7 0.8 -13.0 2.6 -6.0
2010 3.7 -0.4 2.1 6.6 12.0
2011 3.7 1.5 -0.5 4.0 8.7
2012 3.7 1.4 1.5 -2.7 3.9
2013 3.7 0.2 -1.1 0.6 3.4

Return to text.

Figure 3: Business Output and Expectations of Future Earnings for Capital Goods Producers

Note: Change in 12-month ahead earnings expectations relative to one year ago

Calculations based on BEA and NIPA data and Thomson Reuters - IBES North American Summary and Detail estimates.

Date Change in 12-month ahead mean analysts' expectations (12-month percent change) Business output growth (4-quarter percent change)
Jan 2006 12.2 3.7
Feb 2006 13.7 3.8
Mar 2006 13.1 3.8
Apr 2006 13.6 3.6
May 2006 12.3 3.5
Jun 2006 11.9 3.1
Jul 2006 11.6 2.7
Aug 2006 11.4 2.4
Sep 2006 11.5 2.7
Oct 2006 11.6 3.1
Nov 2006 12.3 3.3
Dec 2006 14.9 2.7
Jan 2007 15.1 1.9
Feb 2007 15.1 1.2
Mar 2007 15.0 1.5
Apr 2007 14.8 2.0
May 2007 16.0 2.4
Jun 2007 17.0 2.7
Jul 2007 16.1 3.1
Aug 2007 17.0 3.3
Sep 2007 17.5 3.0
Oct 2007 17.6 2.6
Nov 2007 19.3 2.3
Dec 2007 16.3 1.7
Jan 2008 16.1 1.1
Feb 2008 14.1 0.6
Mar 2008 12.7 0.5
Apr 2008 10.8 0.5
May 2008 10.1 0.4
Jun 2008 9.8 -0.1
Jul 2008 10.1 -0.6
Aug 2008 8.8 -1.2
Sep 2008 8.0 -2.5
Oct 2008 2.6 -3.9
Nov 2008 -9.3 -5.1
Dec 2008 -16.9 -5.2
Jan 2009 -19.6 -5.2
Feb 2009 -29.3 -5.2
Mar 2009 -33.5 -5.5
Apr 2009 -34.8 -5.9
May 2009 -37.5 -6.2
Jun 2009 -37.6 -6.0
Jul 2009 -36.5 -5.8
Aug 2009 -33.8 -5.4
Sep 2009 -33.0 -3.8
Oct 2009 -27.6 -2.1
Nov 2009 -11.8 -0.4
Dec 2009 -3.3 0.4
Jan 2010 -0.1 1.1
Feb 2010 16.6 1.8
Mar 2010 22.9 2.3
Apr 2010 27.1 2.7
May 2010 34.7 3.2
Jun 2010 34.7 3.5
Jul 2010 34.8 3.8
Aug 2010 33.7 4.1
Sep 2010 33.0 4.1
Oct 2010 33.1 4.0
Nov 2010 27.9 3.9
Dec 2010 28.2 3.4
Jan 2011 27.9 3.0
Feb 2011 24.0 2.6
Mar 2011 24.1 2.6
Apr 2011 23.5 2.7
May 2011 18.1 2.8
Jun 2011 16.6 2.6
Jul 2011 15.9 2.2
Aug 2011 16.3 2.0
Sep 2011 14.0 2.0
Oct 2011 13.7 2.1
Nov 2011 9.6 2.3
Dec 2011 8.5 3.1
Jan 2012 7.6 4.0
Feb 2012 5.6 4.7
Mar 2012 5.7 4.3
Apr 2012 4.7 3.7
May 2012 5.8 3.3
Jun 2012 6.0 3.6
Jul 2012 5.0 4.1
Aug 2012 3.5 4.4
Sep 2012 5.1 4.0
Oct 2012 4.4 3.4
Nov 2012 5.6 2.8
Dec 2012 4.7 2.3
Jan 2013 5.2 1.7
Feb 2013 5.1 1.3
Mar 2013 4.6 1.5
Apr 2013 4.7 1.7
May 2013 3.4 2.0
Jun 2013 5.1 2.1
Jul 2013 6.2 2.1
Aug 2013 4.3 2.2
Sep 2013 4.3 2.4
Oct 2013 4.7 2.7
Nov 2013 6.7 2.9
Dec 2013 7.5 3.1

Return to text.

Figure 4: Measures of BFI Levels

Date Nominal investment share of GDP Net investment as a share of the capital stock
1950 10.0 3.5
1951 9.8 3.5
1952 9.5 3.1
1953 9.9 3.6
1954 9.9 3.0
1955 10.2 3.6
1956 11.1 3.9
1957 11.2 3.6
1958 10.1 2.3
1959 10.2 2.6
1960 10.4 3.0
1961 10.0 2.8
1962 10.1 3.2
1963 10.1 3.3
1964 10.5 3.9
1965 11.5 5.1
1966 11.9 5.6
1967 11.5 4.8
1968 11.4 4.6
1969 11.8 4.8
1970 11.6 4.0
1971 11.2 3.4
1972 11.4 3.8
1973 12.1 4.6
1974 12.3 4.0
1975 11.7 2.6
1976 11.7 2.7
1977 12.4 3.3
1978 13.3 4.2
1979 14.2 4.6
1980 14.2 3.9
1981 14.7 4.0
1982 14.5 3.1
1983 13.3 2.6
1984 14.0 3.8
1985 14.0 3.9
1986 13.2 3.1
1987 12.6 2.7
1988 12.6 2.7
1989 12.7 2.8
1990 12.4 2.6
1991 11.7 1.8
1992 11.3 1.6
1993 11.6 2.1
1994 11.9 2.3
1995 12.6 2.9
1996 12.9 3.3
1997 13.3 3.7
1998 13.8 4.0
1999 14.1 4.1
2000 14.5 4.3
2001 13.7 3.0
2002 12.3 1.8
2003 11.9 1.7
2004 11.9 1.8
2005 12.3 2.0
2006 12.8 2.5
2007 13.3 2.7
2008 13.2 2.2
2009 11.3 0.4
2010 11.1 0.6
2011 11.7 1.1
2012 12.1 1.4
2013 12.2 1.4

Return to text.

Figure 5: Net Investment, Labor Input, and Technical Progress

Average annual growth rate

Date Capital stock Labor input Technical progress
1964:1973 4.5 1.8 2.3
1974:1983 3.5 1.7 0.5
1984:1993 2.7 1.2 0.8
1994:2003 3.1 1.0 1.9
2004:2013 1.6 0.5 0.9

Return to text.