Do Lower Gasoline Prices Boost Confidence?, Accessible Data
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Figure 1: Gasoline Prices and Consumer Sentiment
Source: Energy Information Administration for motor gasoline regular retail price (including taxes): http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/ February is an EIA forecast, Univerisity of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for sentiment: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ 
| Retail price of gasoline (left axis) | Consumer Sentiment (right axis) | |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2014 | 3.31 | 81.20 |
| Feb 2014 | 3.36 | 81.60 |
| Mar 2014 | 3.53 | 80.00 |
| Apr 2014 | 3.66 | 84.10 |
| May 2014 | 3.67 | 81.90 |
| Jun 2014 | 3.69 | 82.50 |
| Jul 2014 | 3.61 | 81.80 |
| Aug 2014 | 3.49 | 82.50 |
| Sep 2014 | 3.41 | 84.60 |
| Oct 2014 | 3.17 | 86.90 |
| Nov 2014 | 2.91 | 88.80 |
| Dec 2014 | 2.54 | 93.60 |
| Jan 2015 | 2.12 | 98.10 |
| Feb 2015 | 2.10 | 95.40 |
Figure 2: Gasoline Prices: Survey Expectations and Actual Price Changes Over Next Year
Source: Energy Information Administration for motor gasoline regular retail price (including taxes): http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/, Univerisity of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for sentiment: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ . Quarterly data from 1982:Q2 to 2014:Q4
Note: The one-year-ahead survey expectations for gas prices were not asked 1993-2006
| Actual Change in Gas Prices Next Year | Gas Price Expectations | |
|---|---|---|
| 1982Q2 | -0.5 | 132 |
| 1982Q3 | -3.0 | 146 |
| 1982Q4 | -3.0 | 134 |
| 1983Q1 | 2.1 | 120 |
| 1983Q2 | -1.7 | 140 |
| 1983Q3 | -6.3 | 131 |
| 1983Q4 | -3.2 | 121 |
| 1984Q1 | -5.6 | 116 |
| 1984Q2 | -0.4 | 139 |
| 1984Q3 | 2.2 | 116 |
| 1984Q4 | 0.3 | 119 |
| 1985Q1 | -4.7 | 86 |
| 1985Q2 | -25.5 | 138 |
| 1985Q3 | -30.6 | 123 |
| 1985Q4 | -32.8 | 119 |
| 1986Q1 | -19.2 | 94 |
| 1986Q2 | 2.5 | 148 |
| 1986Q3 | 14.6 | 153 |
| 1986Q4 | 18.7 | 152 |
| 1987Q1 | 2.7 | 171 |
| 1987Q2 | 0.3 | 164 |
| 1987Q3 | -1.0 | 170 |
| 1987Q4 | -2.8 | 145 |
| 1988Q1 | 1.4 | 129 |
| 1988Q2 | 16.8 | 142 |
| 1988Q3 | 8.9 | 142 |
| 1988Q4 | 6.3 | 133 |
| 1989Q1 | 11.9 | 153 |
| 1989Q2 | -3.3 | 155 |
| 1989Q3 | 12.3 | 134 |
| 1989Q4 | 38.5 | 137 |
| 1990Q1 | 11.3 | 142 |
| 1990Q2 | 7.4 | 150 |
| 1990Q3 | -3.9 | 166 |
| 1990Q4 | -18.2 | 155 |
| 1991Q1 | -8.2 | 129 |
| 1991Q2 | -0.8 | 137 |
| 1991Q3 | 1.8 | 132 |
| 1991Q4 | 1.2 | 134 |
| 1992Q1 | 4.2 | 100 |
| 1992Q2 | -0.9 | 137 |
| 1992Q3 | -5.6 | 141 |
| 2005Q4 | -5.1 | 135 |
| 2006Q1 | 0.9 | 157 |
| 2006Q2 | 6.1 | 161 |
| 2006Q3 | 0.6 | 152 |
| 2006Q4 | 31.1 | 146 |
| 2007Q1 | 31.4 | 154 |
| 2007Q2 | 24.5 | 161 |
| 2007Q3 | 35.1 | 153 |
| 2007Q4 | -22.5 | 164 |
| 2008Q1 | -39.2 | 167 |
| 2008Q2 | -38.4 | 178 |
| 2008Q3 | -33.4 | 140 |
| 2008Q4 | 13.2 | 136 |
| 2009Q1 | 43.6 | 158 |
| 2009Q2 | 21.1 | 160 |
| 2009Q3 | 6.1 | 148 |
| 2009Q4 | 10.8 | 151 |
| 2010Q1 | 21.5 | 156 |
| 2010Q2 | 35.3 | 166 |
| 2010Q3 | 33.5 | 151 |
| 2010Q4 | 16.7 | 156 |
| 2011Q1 | 9.5 | 176 |
| 2011Q2 | -1.9 | 147 |
| 2011Q3 | 0.9 | 141 |
| 2011Q4 | 4.2 | 144 |
| 2012Q1 | -1.2 | 167 |
| 2012Q2 | -3.2 | 142 |
| 2012Q3 | -2.7 | 141 |
| 2012Q4 | -6.2 | 140 |
| 2013Q1 | -4.5 | 156 |
| 2013Q2 | 2.0 | 152 |
| 2013Q3 | -1.8 | 156 |
| 2013Q4 | -12.5 | 144 |
| 2014Q1 | 150 | |
| 2014Q2 | 158 | |
| 2014Q3 | 156 | |
| 2014Q4 | 137 | |
Figure 3: Expected Change in Real Income Over Next Few Years by Gasoline Price Expectations
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
Note: In total, 18 percent expect real income to go up, 36 percent expect real income to be unchanged, and 46 percent expect real income to go down. Differences between green and orange bars are statistically significant at 1-percent level.
| Gas Go Up | Gas Stay Same | Gas Go Down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real income up | 17.08 | 19.01 | 23.79 |
| Real income unchanged | 32.6 | 40.62 | 39.63 |
| Real income down | 50.32 | 40.37 | 36.58 |
Figure 4: Expect an Increase in Real Income by Gasoline Price Expectations Across Income Quintiles
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
Note: In total, 18 percent expect real income to go up, 36 percent expect real income to be unchanged, and 46 percent expect real income to go down. Differences between green and orange bars are statistically significant at 1-percent level.
| Gas Price Expectations | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Income Quintile | Gas Go Up | Gas Stay Same | Gas Go Down |
| Bottom 20% | 11.67 | 13.49 | 16.18 |
| Second 20% | 13.79 | 12.23 | 23.14 |
| Middle 20% | 14.39 | 14.71 | 26.55 |
| Fourth 20% | 16.84 | 24.77 | 22.49 |
| Top 20% | 29.68 | 34.75 | 30.32 |
Figure 5: Good time to Buy Consumer Durables by Gasoline Price Expectations Across Income Quintiles
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
Note: The percent of who say it is a good time to buy generaly rises across the income quintiles: 69, 76, 75, 79, and 81 percent. The differences between the blue and red bars are statistically significant at the 5 percent level for the the first three income quintiles.
| Gas Price Expectations | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Income Quintile | Gas Go Up | Gas Stay Same | Gas Go Down |
| Bottom 20% | 64.83 | 72.54 | 79.58 |
| Second 20% | 72.9 | 80.02 | 86.06 |
| Middle 20% | 71.87 | 77.59 | 86.41 |
| Fourth 20% | 78.61 | 77.71 | 82.82 |
| Top 20% | 79.34 | 83.59 | 82.34 |
Figure 6: Gasoline Expenditures in 2013 by Income Quintile
Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey.
| Income Quintile | Expenditure Share | Mean Level |
|---|---|---|
| Bottom 20% | 5.5 | 1231 |
| Second 20% | 5.7 | 1850 |
| Middle 20% | 6.2 | 2622 |
| Fourth 20% | 5.6 | 3284 |
| Top 20% | 4.1 | 4071 |