Forecasts of Economic Activity in the Great Recession, Accessible Data

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Evolution of Change in Real GDP

Note: Percent changes are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The solid bars combine the GDP estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that were available at the date of the forecast with the Board staff forecasts going forward from the published data. The dashed lines are the currently published estimates of GDP from the BEA. The colors of the lines (current) and bars (real-time) match for a particular year.

Date of Board Staff Forecast 2008 2009 2010 Current 2008 Current 2009 Current 2010
June 18, 2008 1.0 2.4 3.1 -2.8 -0.2 2.7
Dec 10, 2008 -0.4 -0.9 2.4 -2.8 -0.2 2.7
June 17, 2009 -0.8 -1.1 3.0 -2.8 -0.2 2.7
Dec 9, 2009 -1.9 -0.3 3.6 -2.8 -0.2 2.7

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Figure 2: Evolution of the GDP Gap

Note: The GDP gaps are percent deviations of the level GDP from the level of potential GDP in the fourth quarter of each year. The solid bars are the GDP gaps at the time using the Board staff's GDP and potential GDP. The dashed lines are the GDP gaps using current estimates of GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and potential GDP from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The colors of the lines (current) and bars (real-time) match for a particular year.

Date of Board Staff Forecast 2008 2009 2010 Current 2008 Current 2009 Current 2010
June 2008 Forecast -1.4 -1.5 -1.0 -5.1 -6.5 -5.0
Dec 2008 Forecast -3.1 -6.0 -5.8 -5.1 -6.5 -5.0
June 2009 Forecast -3.6 -6.5 -5.6 -5.1 -6.5 -5.0
Dec 2009 Forecast -4.8 -7.6 -6.2 -5.1 -6.5 -5.0

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