Chart 1. FOMC statements, word count by meeting

Note: Excludes voting information

Meeting Date	Word Count	NBER Recession
5/18/1999	149	0
6/30/1999	159	0
8/24/1999	154	0
10/5/1999	169	0
11/16/1999	190	0
12/21/1999	149	0
2/2/2000	131	0
3/21/2000	135	0
5/16/2000	139	0
6/28/2000	164	0
8/22/2000	167	0
10/3/2000	177	0
11/15/2000	182	0
12/19/2000	154	0
1/31/2001	218	0
3/20/2001	210	1
5/15/2001	223	1
6/27/2001	172	1
8/21/2001	166	1
10/2/2001	137	1
11/6/2001	147	1
12/11/2001	161	0
1/30/2002	131	0
3/19/2002	211	0
5/7/2002	126	0
6/26/2002	149	0
8/13/2002	123	0
9/24/2002	139	0
11/6/2002	174	0
12/10/2002	120	0
1/29/2003	120	0
3/18/2003	177	0
5/6/2003	166	0
6/25/2003	194	0
8/12/2003	163	0
9/16/2003	160	0
10/28/2003	161	0
12/9/2003	150	0
1/28/2004	154	0
3/16/2004	153	0
5/4/2004	152	0
6/30/2004	174	0
8/10/2004	191	0
9/21/2004	172	0
11/10/2004	156	0
12/14/2004	160	0
2/2/2005	159	0
3/22/2005	189	0
5/3/2005	181	0
6/30/2005	160	0
8/9/2005	173	0
9/20/2005	245	0
11/1/2005	177	0
12/13/2005	125	0
1/31/2006	121	0
3/28/2006	182	0
5/10/2006	199	0
6/29/2006	192	0
8/8/2006	157	0
9/20/2006	143	0
10/25/2006	147	0
12/12/2006	157	0
1/31/2007	130	0
3/21/2007	122	0
5/9/2007	121	0
6/28/2007	135	0
8/7/2007	165	0
9/18/2007	162	0
10/31/2007	195	0
12/11/2007	166	1
1/30/2008	136	1
3/18/2008	190	1
4/30/2008	197	1
6/25/2008	189	1
8/5/2008	181	1
9/16/2008	172	1
10/29/2008	196	1
12/16/2008	299	1
1/28/2009	414	1
3/18/2009	381	1
4/29/2009	385	1
6/24/2009	338	1
8/12/2009	380	0
9/23/2009	386	0
11/4/2009	425	0
12/16/2009	533	0
1/27/2010	480	0
3/16/2010	358	0
4/28/2010	309	0
6/23/2010	257	0
8/10/2010	300	0
9/21/2010	304	0
11/3/2010	389	0
12/14/2010	400	0
1/26/2011	393	0
3/15/2011	423	0
4/27/2011	422	0
6/22/2011	416	0
8/9/2011	452	0
9/21/2011	501	0
11/2/2011	437	0
12/13/2011	381	0
1/25/2012	351	0
3/13/2012	366	0
4/25/2012	375	0
6/20/2012	429	0
8/1/2012	383	0
9/13/2012	477	0
10/24/2012	464	0
12/12/2012	612	0
1/30/2013	575	0
3/20/2013	572	0
5/1/2013	598	0
6/19/2013	602	0
7/31/2013	629	0
9/18/2013	734	0
10/30/2013	712	0
12/18/2013	796	0
1/29/2014	807	0
3/19/2014	816	0
4/30/2014	789	0
6/18/2014	774	0
7/30/2014	759	0
9/17/2014	763	0
10/29/2014	612	0
12/17/2014	575	0

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Chart 2. Selected word counts from FOMC statements

Meeting Date	Weather, hurricane, katrina, winter	foreign, abroad, global, geopolitical	energy, commodity, commodities, oil	productive, productivity	inflation expectations, inflationary expectations
5/18/1999	0	1	0	1	0
6/30/1999	0	1	0	1	0
8/24/1999	0	2	0	0	0
10/5/1999	0	0	0	2	0
11/16/1999	0	0	0	1	0
12/21/1999	0	0	0	1	0
2/2/2000	0	0	0	1	0
3/21/2000	0	0	0	0	0
5/16/2000	0	0	0	1	0
6/28/2000	0	0	0	1	0
8/22/2000	0	0	0	1	0
10/3/2000	0	0	1	1	1
11/15/2000	0	0	1	1	1
12/19/2000	0	0	1	0	1
1/31/2001	0	0	1	1	0
3/20/2001	0	1	0	2	0
5/15/2001	0	1	0	1	0
6/27/2001	0	1	0	1	0
8/21/2001	0	1	0	1	0
10/2/2001	0	0	0	1	0
11/6/2001	0	1	0	2	0
12/11/2001	0	0	0	2	0
1/30/2002	0	0	0	1	0
3/19/2002	0	0	0	0	0
5/7/2002	0	0	0	0	0
6/26/2002	0	0	0	1	0
8/13/2002	0	0	0	1	0
9/24/2002	0	0	0	1	0
11/6/2002	0	0	0	1	1
12/10/2002	0	0	0	1	0
1/29/2003	0	0	1	1	0
3/18/2003	0	0	1	1	0
5/6/2003	0	0	1	1	0
6/25/2003	0	0	0	1	1
8/12/2003	0	0	0	1	0
9/16/2003	0	0	0	1	0
10/28/2003	0	0	0	1	0
12/9/2003	0	0	0	1	0
1/28/2004	0	0	0	1	0
3/16/2004	0	0	0	1	0
5/4/2004	0	0	0	1	1
6/30/2004	0	0	0	1	0
8/10/2004	0	0	1	1	0
9/21/2004	0	0	2	1	1
11/10/2004	0	0	1	1	1
12/14/2004	0	0	1	1	1
2/2/2005	0	0	1	1	1
3/22/2005	0	0	2	1	1
5/3/2005	0	0	1	1	1
6/30/2005	0	0	1	1	1
8/9/2005	1	0	1	1	1
9/20/2005	2	0	4	1	1
11/1/2005	2	0	2	1	1
12/13/2005	1	0	2	0	1
1/31/2006	0	0	1	0	1
3/28/2006	0	0	4	1	1
5/10/2006	0	0	5	1	1
6/29/2006	0	0	3	1	1
8/8/2006	0	0	3	0	1
9/20/2006	0	0	3	0	1
10/25/2006	0	0	1	0	1
12/12/2006	0	0	1	0	1
1/31/2007	0	0	0	0	0
3/21/2007	0	0	0	0	0
5/9/2007	0	0	0	0	0
6/28/2007	0	0	0	0	0
8/7/2007	0	1	0	0	0
9/18/2007	0	0	0	0	0
10/31/2007	0	0	2	0	0
12/11/2007	0	0	2	0	0
1/30/2008	0	0	0	0	0
3/18/2008	0	0	2	0	1
4/30/2008	0	0	4	0	1
6/25/2008	0	0	3	0	2
8/5/2008	0	0	3	0	1
9/16/2008	0	0	2	0	0
10/29/2008	0	1	2	0	0
12/16/2008	0	0	2	0	0
1/28/2009	0	1	2	0	0
3/18/2009	0	1	0	0	0
4/29/2009	0	1	0	0	0
6/24/2009	0	0	2	0	0
8/12/2009	0	0	2	0	0
9/23/2009	0	0	0	0	1
11/4/2009	0	0	0	0	2
12/16/2009	0	0	0	0	2
1/27/2010	0	0	0	0	2
3/16/2010	0	0	0	0	2
4/28/2010	0	0	0	0	2
6/23/2010	0	1	2	0	2
8/10/2010	0	0	0	0	2
9/21/2010	0	0	0	0	2
11/3/2010	0	0	0	0	2
12/14/2010	0	0	0	0	2
1/26/2011	0	0	1	0	2
3/15/2011	0	1	5	0	3
4/27/2011	0	1	5	0	3
6/22/2011	0	0	4	0	2
8/9/2011	0	0	6	0	2
9/21/2011	0	1	4	0	2
11/2/2011	0	1	4	0	2
12/13/2011	0	2	0	0	2
1/25/2012	0	2	0	0	1
3/13/2012	0	1	2	0	1
4/25/2012	0	1	2	0	1
6/20/2012	0	1	1	0	1
8/1/2012	0	1	1	0	1
9/13/2012	0	1	1	0	1
10/24/2012	0	1	1	0	1
12/12/2012	1	1	1	0	3
1/30/2013	1	1	1	0	3
3/20/2013	0	0	1	0	3
5/1/2013	0	0	1	0	3
6/19/2013	0	0	0	0	3
7/31/2013	0	0	0	0	3
9/18/2013	0	0	1	0	3
10/30/2013	0	0	1	0	3
12/18/2013	0	0	0	0	3
1/29/2014	0	0	0	0	3
3/19/2014	2	0	0	0	3
4/30/2014	2	0	0	0	3
6/18/2014	0	0	0	0	3
7/30/2014	0	0	0	0	3
9/17/2014	0	0	0	0	3
10/29/2014	0	0	1	0	3
12/17/2014	0	0	2	0	3

Date	FRED: Nonfarm business real output per person
1/1/1999	3.7
4/1/1999	3.2
7/1/1999	2.6
10/1/1999	3.7
1/1/2000	2.4
4/1/2000	4.3
7/1/2000	3.4
10/1/2000	2.8
1/1/2001	2.8
4/1/2001	2.4
7/1/2001	2.9
10/1/2001	3.2
1/1/2002	5.8
4/1/2002	4.2
7/1/2002	4.4
10/1/2002	3
1/1/2003	1.7
4/1/2003	3
7/1/2003	4.4
10/1/2003	5.6
1/1/2004	4.5
4/1/2004	4.1
7/1/2004	2.2
10/1/2004	1.6
1/1/2005	2.7
4/1/2005	1.6
7/1/2005	2.1
10/1/2005	1.8
1/1/2006	1.3
4/1/2006	1.3
7/1/2006	0.2
10/1/2006	0.9
1/1/2007	0.4
4/1/2007	1.1
7/1/2007	2.7
10/1/2007	2.3
1/1/2008	1.2
4/1/2008	1.6
7/1/2008	0.7
10/1/2008	-0.4
1/1/2009	1.4
4/1/2009	2.3
7/1/2009	3.6
10/1/2009	5.5
1/1/2010	5.2
4/1/2010	3.6
7/1/2010	2.6
10/1/2010	1.8
1/1/2011	0.4
4/1/2011	0.4
7/1/2011	-0.3
10/1/2011	0
1/1/2012	0.9
4/1/2012	1
7/1/2012	1.7
10/1/2012	0.4
1/1/2013	0.5
4/1/2013	0.2
7/1/2013	0.6
10/1/2013	2
1/1/2014	0.6
4/1/2014	1.1
7/1/2014	1.2
10/1/2014	-0.1
1/1/2015	0.3

Date	FRED: Brent crude dollars per barrel
1/1/1999	11.34
2/1/1999	10.58
3/1/1999	15.02
4/1/1999	16.45
5/1/1999	14.75
6/1/1999	16.97
7/1/1999	19.97
8/1/1999	21.08
9/1/1999	22.98
10/1/1999	21.11
11/1/1999	25.2
12/1/1999	24.93
1/1/2000	27.08
2/1/2000	29.01
3/1/2000	23.98
4/1/2000	23.79
5/1/2000	29.64
6/1/2000	31.58
7/1/2000	25.3
8/1/2000	35.08
9/1/2000	28.42
10/1/2000	30.15
11/1/2000	32.53
12/1/2000	22.58
1/1/2001	26.59
2/1/2001	25.16
3/1/2001	23.5
4/1/2001	27.21
5/1/2001	28.55
6/1/2001	26.21
7/1/2001	24.35
8/1/2001	26.8
9/1/2001	21.87
10/1/2001	19.63
11/1/2001	18.92
12/1/2001	19.35
1/1/2002	19.07
2/1/2002	20.73
3/1/2002	25.34
4/1/2002	26.98
5/1/2002	23.87
6/1/2002	25.33
7/1/2002	26.28
8/1/2002	27.56
9/1/2002	29.11
10/1/2002	25.51
11/1/2002	25.74
12/1/2002	30.12
1/1/2003	31.57
2/1/2003	34
3/1/2003	28.05
4/1/2003	23.6
5/1/2003	26.58
6/1/2003	28.88
7/1/2003	28.68
8/1/2003	30.38
9/1/2003	28.09
10/1/2003	27.88
11/1/2003	28.95
12/1/2003	30.3
1/1/2004	29.53
2/1/2004	32.94
3/1/2004	32.29
4/1/2004	35.23
5/1/2004	37
6/1/2004	33.22
7/1/2004	41.47
8/1/2004	39.8
9/1/2004	47.76
10/1/2004	48.16
11/1/2004	44.23
12/1/2004	40.38
1/1/2005	44.51
2/1/2005	50.13
3/1/2005	53.22
4/1/2005	50.61
5/1/2005	49.3
6/1/2005	55.36
7/1/2005	59.77
8/1/2005	66.8
9/1/2005	61.7
10/1/2005	58.47
11/1/2005	53.25
12/1/2005	58.34
1/1/2006	63.19
2/1/2006	59.78
3/1/2006	66.06
4/1/2006	72.15
5/1/2006	67.57
6/1/2006	73.2
7/1/2006	74.75
8/1/2006	67.66
9/1/2006	59.09
10/1/2006	56.13
11/1/2006	64.36
12/1/2006	58.96
1/1/2007	56.52
2/1/2007	59.39
3/1/2007	68.47
4/1/2007	67.23
5/1/2007	68.18
6/1/2007	72.22
7/1/2007	77.01
8/1/2007	72.29
9/1/2007	80.97
10/1/2007	89.87
11/1/2007	88.71
12/1/2007	93.68
1/1/2008	91.58
2/1/2008	100.9
3/1/2008	102.33
4/1/2008	111.12
5/1/2008	127.85
6/1/2008	138.4
7/1/2008	124.1
8/1/2008	113.49
9/1/2008	93.52
10/1/2008	60
11/1/2008	47.72
12/1/2008	35.82
1/1/2009	44.17
2/1/2009	44.41
3/1/2009	46.13
4/1/2009	50.3
5/1/2009	64.98
6/1/2009	68.11
7/1/2009	70.08
8/1/2009	69.02
9/1/2009	65.82
10/1/2009	74.91
11/1/2009	77.77
12/1/2009	77.91
1/1/2010	71.2
2/1/2010	76.36
3/1/2010	80.37
4/1/2010	86.19
5/1/2010	73
6/1/2010	74.94
7/1/2010	77.5
8/1/2010	75.51
9/1/2010	80.77
10/1/2010	82.47
11/1/2010	86.02
12/1/2010	93.23
1/1/2011	98.97
2/1/2011	112.27
3/1/2011	116.94
4/1/2011	126.59
5/1/2011	117.18
6/1/2011	111.71
7/1/2011	115.93
8/1/2011	116.48
9/1/2011	105.42
10/1/2011	108.43
11/1/2011	111.22
12/1/2011	108.09
1/1/2012	110.26
2/1/2012	122.23
3/1/2012	123.41
4/1/2012	118.66
5/1/2012	103.86
6/1/2012	94.17
7/1/2012	105.93
8/1/2012	113.93
9/1/2012	111.36
10/1/2012	109.89
11/1/2012	110.84
12/1/2012	110.8
1/1/2013	115.55
2/1/2013	112.2
3/1/2013	108.46
4/1/2013	101.53
5/1/2013	100.43
6/1/2013	102.49
7/1/2013	107.89
8/1/2013	115.97
9/1/2013	107.85
10/1/2013	107.53
11/1/2013	111.07
12/1/2013	109.95
1/1/2014	108.16
2/1/2014	108.98
3/1/2014	105.95
4/1/2014	108.63
5/1/2014	109.21
6/1/2014	111.03
7/1/2014	104.94
8/1/2014	101.12
9/1/2014	94.67
10/1/2014	84.17
11/1/2014	71.89
12/1/2014	55.27

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Chart 3. Semantic similarity of consecutive, raw FOMC statements

Meeting Date	Persistence	Moving Average	NBER Recession
5/18/1999			0
6/30/1999	0.77315		0
8/24/1999	0.76007		0
10/5/1999	0.71779		0
11/16/1999	0.79928		0
12/21/1999	0.81785		0
2/2/2000	0.85643		0
3/21/2000	0.95619		0
5/16/2000	0.91708	0.82473	0
6/28/2000	0.83821	0.83286	0
8/22/2000	0.93353	0.85454	0
10/3/2000	0.914	0.87907	0
11/15/2000	0.9306	0.89549	0
12/19/2000	0.8279	0.89674	0
1/31/2001	0.78977	0.88841	0
3/20/2001	0.83184	0.87286	1
5/15/2001	0.87161	0.86718	1
6/27/2001	0.88124	0.87256	1
8/21/2001	0.97466	0.8777	1
10/2/2001	0.89827	0.87574	1
11/6/2001	0.94189	0.87715	1
12/11/2001	0.93608	0.89067	0
1/30/2002	0.84807	0.89796	0
3/19/2002	0.81026	0.89526	0
5/7/2002	0.92299	0.90168	0
6/26/2002	0.94923	0.91018	0
8/13/2002	0.85018	0.89462	0
9/24/2002	0.90871	0.89593	0
11/6/2002	0.82838	0.88174	0
12/10/2002	0.87487	0.87409	0
1/29/2003	0.87055	0.8769	0
3/18/2003	0.84927	0.88177	0
5/6/2003	0.77631	0.86344	0
6/25/2003	0.7964	0.84433	0
8/12/2003	0.8884	0.84911	0
9/16/2003	0.98633	0.85881	0
10/28/2003	0.99205	0.87927	0
12/9/2003	0.93056	0.88623	0
1/28/2004	0.96652	0.89823	0
3/16/2004	0.9671	0.91296	0
5/4/2004	0.87224	0.92495	0
6/30/2004	0.90634	0.93869	0
8/10/2004	0.93513	0.94453	0
9/21/2004	0.93349	0.93793	0
11/10/2004	0.95839	0.93372	0
12/14/2004	0.99235	0.94144	0
2/2/2005	0.99708	0.94526	0
3/22/2005	0.95065	0.94321	0
5/3/2005	0.9632	0.95458	0
6/30/2005	0.95348	0.96047	0
8/9/2005	0.96926	0.96474	0
9/20/2005	0.90043	0.9606	0
11/1/2005	0.92401	0.95631	0
12/13/2005	0.8517	0.93873	0
1/31/2006	0.96535	0.93476	0
3/28/2006	0.86915	0.92457	0
5/10/2006	0.93628	0.92121	0
6/29/2006	0.92772	0.91799	0
8/8/2006	0.92851	0.91289	0
9/20/2006	0.96956	0.92154	0
10/25/2006	0.95901	0.92591	0
12/12/2006	0.98467	0.94253	0
1/31/2007	0.92055	0.93693	0
3/21/2007	0.87751	0.93798	0
5/9/2007	0.95509	0.94033	0
6/28/2007	0.93883	0.94172	0
8/7/2007	0.92654	0.94147	0
9/18/2007	0.81124	0.92168	0
10/31/2007	0.90762	0.91526	0
12/11/2007	0.9133	0.90634	1
1/30/2008	0.76619	0.88704	1
3/18/2008	0.87793	0.88709	1
4/30/2008	0.92219	0.88298	1
6/25/2008	0.90926	0.87928	1
8/5/2008	0.9589	0.88333	1
9/16/2008	0.96365	0.90238	1
10/29/2008	0.8437	0.89439	1
12/16/2008	0.79793	0.87997	1
1/28/2009	0.93913	0.90159	1
3/18/2009	0.93153	0.90829	1
4/29/2009	0.94148	0.9107	1
6/24/2009	0.96572	0.91776	1
8/12/2009	0.98688	0.92125	0
9/23/2009	0.97286	0.9224	0
11/4/2009	0.97921	0.93934	0
12/16/2009	0.94167	0.95731	0
1/27/2010	0.96103	0.96005	0
3/16/2010	0.92717	0.9595	0
4/28/2010	0.96782	0.96279	0
6/23/2010	0.92651	0.95789	0
8/10/2010	0.93267	0.95112	0
9/21/2010	0.92933	0.94568	0
11/3/2010	0.93357	0.93997	0
12/14/2010	0.99055	0.94608	0
1/26/2011	0.98721	0.94936	0
3/15/2011	0.969	0.95458	0
4/27/2011	0.9854	0.95678	0
6/22/2011	0.93496	0.95784	0
8/9/2011	0.96468	0.96184	0
9/21/2011	0.94621	0.96395	0
11/2/2011	0.97284	0.96886	0
12/13/2011	0.97674	0.96713	0
1/25/2012	0.98026	0.96626	0
3/13/2012	0.97168	0.96659	0
4/25/2012	0.98565	0.96663	0
6/20/2012	0.96739	0.97068	0
8/1/2012	0.96853	0.97116	0
9/13/2012	0.92937	0.96906	0
10/24/2012	0.99088	0.97131	0
12/12/2012	0.96492	0.96984	0
1/30/2013	0.98656	0.97062	0
3/20/2013	0.99019	0.97294	0
5/1/2013	0.994	0.97398	0
6/19/2013	0.99524	0.97746	0
7/31/2013	0.99395	0.98064	0
9/18/2013	0.9828	0.98732	0
10/30/2013	0.99574	0.98792	0
12/18/2013	0.98359	0.99026	0
1/29/2014	0.99655	0.99151	0
3/19/2014	0.98868	0.99132	0
4/30/2014	0.99568	0.99153	0
6/18/2014	0.9973	0.99179	0
7/30/2014	0.99333	0.99171	0
9/17/2014	0.99578	0.99333	0
10/29/2014	0.9558	0.98834	0
12/17/2014	0.98612	0.98865	0

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Chart 4. Computing the TFIDF score

Number of documents	Number of words	TFIDF score
1	150	4.8363
2	90	4.1431
3	43	3.7377
4	30	3.45
5	22	3.2268
6	26	3.0445
7	18	2.8904
8	25	2.7568
9	11	2.6391
10	16	2.5337
11	12	2.4384
12	11	2.3514
13	8	2.2713
14	10	2.1972
15	8	2.1282
16	7	2.0637
17	10	2.0031
18	4	1.9459
19	6	1.8918
20	5	1.8405
21	7	1.7918
22	7	1.7452
23	6	1.7008
24	5	1.6582
25	4	1.6174
26	14	1.5782
27	4	1.5404
28	3	1.5041
29	3	1.469
30	3	1.4351
31	6	1.4023
32	7	1.3705
33	3	1.3398
34	6	1.3099
35	5	1.2809
36	4	1.2528
37	0	1.2254
38	4	1.1987
39	5	1.1727
40	10	1.1474
41	1	1.1227
42	3	1.0986
43	3	1.0751
44	4	1.0521
45	2	1.0296
46	4	1.0076
47	2	0.98613
48	2	0.96508
49	9	0.94446
50	4	0.92426
51	4	0.90446
52	4	0.88504
53	2	0.86599
54	2	0.8473
55	1	0.82895
56	1	0.81093
57	2	0.79323
58	2	0.77584
59	2	0.75874
60	0	0.74194
61	2	0.72541
62	1	0.70915
63	0	0.69315
64	0	0.6774
65	0	0.66189
66	0	0.64663
67	1	0.63159
68	3	0.61677
69	2	0.60218
70	3	0.58779
71	4	0.5736
72	1	0.55962
73	0	0.54582
74	0	0.53222
75	1	0.51879
76	0	0.50555
77	2	0.49248
78	2	0.47957
79	2	0.46683
80	0	0.45426
81	1	0.44183
82	1	0.42956
83	0	0.41744
84	0	0.40547
85	0	0.39363
86	1	0.38193
87	1	0.37037
88	1	0.35895
89	0	0.34765
90	0	0.33647
91	0	0.32542
92	1	0.31449
93	2	0.30368
94	0	0.29299
95	1	0.28241
96	0	0.27193
97	1	0.26157
98	0	0.25131
99	0	0.24116
100	1	0.23111
101	0	0.22116
102	1	0.21131
103	0	0.20155
104	1	0.19189
105	0	0.18232
106	0	0.17284
107	0	0.16345
108	2	0.15415
109	0	0.14493
110	0	0.1358
111	0	0.12675
112	1	0.11778
113	2	0.10889
114	1	0.10008
115	0	0.09135
116	0	0.082692
117	0	0.074108
118	0	0.065597
119	0	0.057158
120	0	0.04879
121	0	0.040491
122	0	0.032261
123	1	0.024098
124	1	0.016
125	2	0.0079682
126	2	0

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Chart 5.a. Semantic similarity of consecutive, prepared FOMC statements

Text preprocessing only

Meeting Date	Persistence	Moving Average	NBER Recession
5/18/1999			0
6/30/1999	0.46215		0
8/24/1999	0.52971		0
10/5/1999	0.33632		0
11/16/1999	0.4391		0
12/21/1999	0.40021		0
2/2/2000	0.5173		0
3/21/2000	0.90167		0
5/16/2000	0.81933	0.55072	0
6/28/2000	0.53945	0.56039	0
8/22/2000	0.84476	0.59977	0
10/3/2000	0.80335	0.65815	0
11/15/2000	0.77383	0.69999	0
12/19/2000	0.56576	0.72068	0
1/31/2001	0.50129	0.71868	0
3/20/2001	0.64378	0.68644	1
5/15/2001	0.67808	0.66879	1
6/27/2001	0.76564	0.69706	1
8/21/2001	0.94069	0.70905	1
10/2/2001	0.7772	0.70578	1
11/6/2001	0.87519	0.71845	1
12/11/2001	0.86561	0.75593	0
1/30/2002	0.66206	0.77603	0
3/19/2002	0.47444	0.75486	0
5/7/2002	0.74964	0.76381	0
6/26/2002	0.81315	0.76975	0
8/13/2002	0.56609	0.72292	0
9/24/2002	0.77172	0.72224	0
11/6/2002	0.57455	0.68466	0
12/10/2002	0.7734	0.67313	0
1/29/2003	0.71622	0.6799	0
3/18/2003	0.6275	0.69903	0
5/6/2003	0.41732	0.65749	0
6/25/2003	0.60384	0.63133	0
8/12/2003	0.73156	0.65201	0
9/16/2003	0.97096	0.67692	0
10/28/2003	0.98766	0.72856	0
12/9/2003	0.84023	0.73691	0
1/28/2004	0.9494	0.76606	0
3/16/2004	0.93152	0.80406	0
5/4/2004	0.80912	0.85304	0
6/30/2004	0.77024	0.87384	0
8/10/2004	0.87318	0.89154	0
9/21/2004	0.88671	0.88101	0
11/10/2004	0.93299	0.87418	0
12/14/2004	0.98848	0.89271	0
2/2/2005	0.99618	0.89855	0
3/22/2005	0.89066	0.89345	0
5/3/2005	0.92032	0.90735	0
6/30/2005	0.91101	0.92494	0
8/9/2005	0.94212	0.93356	0
9/20/2005	0.79261	0.9218	0
11/1/2005	0.83247	0.90923	0
12/13/2005	0.67259	0.86975	0
1/31/2006	0.92012	0.86024	0
3/28/2006	0.67988	0.83389	0
5/10/2006	0.8171	0.82099	0
6/29/2006	0.84713	0.813	0
8/8/2006	0.86766	0.8037	0
9/20/2006	0.93573	0.82159	0
10/25/2006	0.94626	0.83581	0
12/12/2006	0.96167	0.87195	0
1/31/2007	0.82988	0.86067	0
3/21/2007	0.78033	0.87322	0
5/9/2007	0.92397	0.88658	0
6/28/2007	0.89639	0.89274	0
8/7/2007	0.88225	0.89456	0
9/18/2007	0.59442	0.8519	0
10/31/2007	0.81888	0.83597	0
12/11/2007	0.85487	0.82262	1
1/30/2008	0.73285	0.81049	1
3/18/2008	0.81577	0.81492	1
4/30/2008	0.89025	0.81071	1
6/25/2008	0.86287	0.80652	1
8/5/2008	0.91553	0.81068	1
9/16/2008	0.91032	0.85017	1
10/29/2008	0.60384	0.82329	1
12/16/2008	0.49461	0.77825	1
1/28/2009	0.84898	0.79277	1
3/18/2009	0.82729	0.79421	1
4/29/2009	0.84604	0.78868	1
6/24/2009	0.90323	0.79373	1
8/12/2009	0.96042	0.79934	0
9/23/2009	0.94411	0.80356	0
11/4/2009	0.938	0.84533	0
12/16/2009	0.81679	0.88561	0
1/27/2010	0.94004	0.89699	0
3/16/2010	0.88409	0.90409	0
4/28/2010	0.95135	0.91725	0
6/23/2010	0.85289	0.91096	0
8/10/2010	0.87505	0.90029	0
9/21/2010	0.88638	0.89307	0
11/3/2010	0.87654	0.88539	0
12/14/2010	0.98115	0.90594	0
1/26/2011	0.97583	0.91041	0
3/15/2011	0.92035	0.91494	0
4/27/2011	0.9638	0.9165	0
6/22/2011	0.88718	0.92078	0
8/9/2011	0.92826	0.92744	0
9/21/2011	0.86132	0.9243	0
11/2/2011	0.93315	0.93138	0
12/13/2011	0.95028	0.92752	0
1/25/2012	0.95362	0.92475	0
3/13/2012	0.94316	0.9276	0
4/25/2012	0.97384	0.92885	0
6/20/2012	0.91975	0.93292	0
8/1/2012	0.93679	0.93399	0
9/13/2012	0.81174	0.92779	0
10/24/2012	0.98414	0.93417	0
12/12/2012	0.91871	0.93022	0
1/30/2013	0.97809	0.93328	0
3/20/2013	0.9872	0.93878	0
5/1/2013	0.99051	0.94087	0
6/19/2013	0.99442	0.9502	0
7/31/2013	0.98975	0.95682	0
9/18/2013	0.96713	0.97624	0
10/30/2013	0.99402	0.97748	0
12/18/2013	0.97075	0.98398	0
1/29/2014	0.99626	0.98625	0
3/19/2014	0.97526	0.98476	0
4/30/2014	0.99382	0.98518	0
6/18/2014	0.99586	0.98536	0
7/30/2014	0.98947	0.98532	0
9/17/2014	0.99509	0.98882	0
10/29/2014	0.93149	0.981	0
12/17/2014	0.97801	0.98191	0

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Chart 5.b. Semantic similarity of consecutive, prepared FOMC statements

Text preprocessing and TFIDF weighting

Meeting Date	Persistence	Moving Average	NBER Recession
5/18/1999			0
6/30/1999	0.2257		0
8/24/1999	0.23763		0
10/5/1999	0.15947		0
11/16/1999	0.27626		0
12/21/1999	0.19252		0
2/2/2000	0.27757		0
3/21/2000	0.79501		0
5/16/2000	0.58256	0.34334	0
6/28/2000	0.22144	0.34281	0
8/22/2000	0.61009	0.38937	0
10/3/2000	0.53071	0.43577	0
11/15/2000	0.50758	0.46469	0
12/19/2000	0.14983	0.45935	0
1/31/2001	0.20425	0.45018	0
3/20/2001	0.34704	0.39419	1
5/15/2001	0.30646	0.35968	1
6/27/2001	0.4471	0.38788	1
8/21/2001	0.78307	0.40951	1
10/2/2001	0.39815	0.39294	1
11/6/2001	0.66399	0.41249	1
12/11/2001	0.70131	0.48142	0
1/30/2002	0.33248	0.49745	0
3/19/2002	0.13293	0.47068	0
5/7/2002	0.401	0.4825	0
6/26/2002	0.79754	0.52631	0
8/13/2002	0.17601	0.45042	0
9/24/2002	0.4711	0.45954	0
11/6/2002	0.27282	0.41065	0
12/10/2002	0.47815	0.38275	0
1/29/2003	0.27923	0.3761	0
3/18/2003	0.4543	0.41627	0
5/6/2003	0.17246	0.3877	0
6/25/2003	0.34845	0.33157	0
8/12/2003	0.52072	0.37465	0
9/16/2003	0.93383	0.4325	0
10/28/2003	0.99145	0.52232	0
12/9/2003	0.6649	0.54567	0
1/28/2004	0.86972	0.61948	0
3/16/2004	0.85394	0.66943	0
5/4/2004	0.54021	0.7154	0
6/30/2004	0.47283	0.73095	0
8/10/2004	0.6416	0.74606	0
9/21/2004	0.50216	0.6921	0
11/10/2004	0.72256	0.65849	0
12/14/2004	0.98094	0.698	0
2/2/2005	0.98573	0.7125	0
3/22/2005	0.70669	0.69409	0
5/3/2005	0.71132	0.71548	0
6/30/2005	0.70849	0.74494	0
8/9/2005	0.8145	0.76655	0
9/20/2005	0.34249	0.74659	0
11/1/2005	0.37418	0.70304	0
12/13/2005	0.44422	0.63595	0
1/31/2006	0.74257	0.60556	0
3/28/2006	0.39331	0.56638	0
5/10/2006	0.5502	0.54624	0
6/29/2006	0.72103	0.54781	0
8/8/2006	0.72734	0.53692	0
9/20/2006	0.80126	0.59426	0
10/25/2006	0.88948	0.65868	0
12/12/2006	0.88557	0.71384	0
1/31/2007	0.52244	0.68633	0
3/21/2007	0.43845	0.69197	0
5/9/2007	0.9071	0.73658	0
6/28/2007	0.73788	0.73869	0
8/7/2007	0.74604	0.74103	0
9/18/2007	0.20904	0.667	0
10/31/2007	0.63791	0.63555	0
12/11/2007	0.57153	0.5963	1
1/30/2008	0.30912	0.56963	1
3/18/2008	0.7745	0.61164	1
4/30/2008	0.85428	0.60504	1
6/25/2008	0.69349	0.59949	1
8/5/2008	0.72235	0.59653	1
9/16/2008	0.87204	0.6794	1
10/29/2008	0.17726	0.62182	1
12/16/2008	0.12627	0.56616	1
1/28/2009	0.69886	0.61488	1
3/18/2009	0.48364	0.57852	1
4/29/2009	0.65447	0.55355	1
6/24/2009	0.81632	0.5689	1
8/12/2009	0.87672	0.5882	0
9/23/2009	0.82572	0.58241	0
11/4/2009	0.83999	0.66525	0
12/16/2009	0.47557	0.70891	0
1/27/2010	0.88547	0.73224	0
3/16/2010	0.64868	0.75287	0
4/28/2010	0.89796	0.78331	0
6/23/2010	0.54626	0.74955	0
8/10/2010	0.75248	0.73402	0
9/21/2010	0.75052	0.72462	0
11/3/2010	0.72802	0.71062	0
12/14/2010	0.93821	0.76845	0
1/26/2011	0.96245	0.77807	0
3/15/2011	0.68832	0.78303	0
4/27/2011	0.83085	0.77464	0
6/22/2011	0.5942	0.78063	0
8/9/2011	0.82508	0.78971	0
9/21/2011	0.64736	0.77681	0
11/2/2011	0.75197	0.77981	0
12/13/2011	0.78866	0.76111	0
1/25/2012	0.88641	0.75161	0
3/13/2012	0.77836	0.76286	0
4/25/2012	0.90545	0.77219	0
6/20/2012	0.72455	0.78848	0
8/1/2012	0.76278	0.78069	0
9/13/2012	0.5545	0.76909	0
10/24/2012	0.90763	0.78854	0
12/12/2012	0.73781	0.78219	0
1/30/2013	0.86541	0.77956	0
3/20/2013	0.91706	0.7969	0
5/1/2013	0.94674	0.80206	0
6/19/2013	0.9493	0.83016	0
7/31/2013	0.95343	0.85399	0
9/18/2013	0.84424	0.8902	0
10/30/2013	0.96593	0.89749	0
12/18/2013	0.8723	0.9143	0
1/29/2014	0.98233	0.92892	0
3/19/2014	0.85957	0.92173	0
4/30/2014	0.92995	0.91963	0
6/18/2014	0.95337	0.92014	0
7/30/2014	0.96493	0.92158	0
9/17/2014	0.97146	0.93748	0
10/29/2014	0.75021	0.91051	0
12/17/2014	0.89812	0.91374	0

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Chart 6. Semantic similarity moving averages

Meeting Date	Baseline	Preprocessing	Preprocessing + IDF	NBER Recession
5/18/1999				0
6/30/1999				0
8/24/1999				0
10/5/1999				0
11/16/1999				0
12/21/1999				0
2/2/2000				0
3/21/2000				0
5/16/2000	0.82473	0.55072	0.34334	0
6/28/2000	0.83286	0.56039	0.34281	0
8/22/2000	0.85454	0.59977	0.38937	0
10/3/2000	0.87907	0.65815	0.43577	0
11/15/2000	0.89549	0.69999	0.46469	0
12/19/2000	0.89674	0.72068	0.45935	0
1/31/2001	0.88841	0.71868	0.45018	0
3/20/2001	0.87286	0.68644	0.39419	1
5/15/2001	0.86718	0.66879	0.35968	1
6/27/2001	0.87256	0.69706	0.38788	1
8/21/2001	0.8777	0.70905	0.40951	1
10/2/2001	0.87574	0.70578	0.39294	1
11/6/2001	0.87715	0.71845	0.41249	1
12/11/2001	0.89067	0.75593	0.48142	0
1/30/2002	0.89796	0.77603	0.49745	0
3/19/2002	0.89526	0.75486	0.47068	0
5/7/2002	0.90168	0.76381	0.4825	0
6/26/2002	0.91018	0.76975	0.52631	0
8/13/2002	0.89462	0.72292	0.45042	0
9/24/2002	0.89593	0.72224	0.45954	0
11/6/2002	0.88174	0.68466	0.41065	0
12/10/2002	0.87409	0.67313	0.38275	0
1/29/2003	0.8769	0.6799	0.3761	0
3/18/2003	0.88177	0.69903	0.41627	0
5/6/2003	0.86344	0.65749	0.3877	0
6/25/2003	0.84433	0.63133	0.33157	0
8/12/2003	0.84911	0.65201	0.37465	0
9/16/2003	0.85881	0.67692	0.4325	0
10/28/2003	0.87927	0.72856	0.52232	0
12/9/2003	0.88623	0.73691	0.54567	0
1/28/2004	0.89823	0.76606	0.61948	0
3/16/2004	0.91296	0.80406	0.66943	0
5/4/2004	0.92495	0.85304	0.7154	0
6/30/2004	0.93869	0.87384	0.73095	0
8/10/2004	0.94453	0.89154	0.74606	0
9/21/2004	0.93793	0.88101	0.6921	0
11/10/2004	0.93372	0.87418	0.65849	0
12/14/2004	0.94144	0.89271	0.698	0
2/2/2005	0.94526	0.89855	0.7125	0
3/22/2005	0.94321	0.89345	0.69409	0
5/3/2005	0.95458	0.90735	0.71548	0
6/30/2005	0.96047	0.92494	0.74494	0
8/9/2005	0.96474	0.93356	0.76655	0
9/20/2005	0.9606	0.9218	0.74659	0
11/1/2005	0.95631	0.90923	0.70304	0
12/13/2005	0.93873	0.86975	0.63595	0
1/31/2006	0.93476	0.86024	0.60556	0
3/28/2006	0.92457	0.83389	0.56638	0
5/10/2006	0.92121	0.82099	0.54624	0
6/29/2006	0.91799	0.813	0.54781	0
8/8/2006	0.91289	0.8037	0.53692	0
9/20/2006	0.92154	0.82159	0.59426	0
10/25/2006	0.92591	0.83581	0.65868	0
12/12/2006	0.94253	0.87195	0.71384	0
1/31/2007	0.93693	0.86067	0.68633	0
3/21/2007	0.93798	0.87322	0.69197	0
5/9/2007	0.94033	0.88658	0.73658	0
6/28/2007	0.94172	0.89274	0.73869	0
8/7/2007	0.94147	0.89456	0.74103	0
9/18/2007	0.92168	0.8519	0.667	0
10/31/2007	0.91526	0.83597	0.63555	0
12/11/2007	0.90634	0.82262	0.5963	1
1/30/2008	0.88704	0.81049	0.56963	1
3/18/2008	0.88709	0.81492	0.61164	1
4/30/2008	0.88298	0.81071	0.60504	1
6/25/2008	0.87928	0.80652	0.59949	1
8/5/2008	0.88333	0.81068	0.59653	1
9/16/2008	0.90238	0.85017	0.6794	1
10/29/2008	0.89439	0.82329	0.62182	1
12/16/2008	0.87997	0.77825	0.56616	1
1/28/2009	0.90159	0.79277	0.61488	1
3/18/2009	0.90829	0.79421	0.57852	1
4/29/2009	0.9107	0.78868	0.55355	1
6/24/2009	0.91776	0.79373	0.5689	1
8/12/2009	0.92125	0.79934	0.5882	0
9/23/2009	0.9224	0.80356	0.58241	0
11/4/2009	0.93934	0.84533	0.66525	0
12/16/2009	0.95731	0.88561	0.70891	0
1/27/2010	0.96005	0.89699	0.73224	0
3/16/2010	0.9595	0.90409	0.75287	0
4/28/2010	0.96279	0.91725	0.78331	0
6/23/2010	0.95789	0.91096	0.74955	0
8/10/2010	0.95112	0.90029	0.73402	0
9/21/2010	0.94568	0.89307	0.72462	0
11/3/2010	0.93997	0.88539	0.71062	0
12/14/2010	0.94608	0.90594	0.76845	0
1/26/2011	0.94936	0.91041	0.77807	0
3/15/2011	0.95458	0.91494	0.78303	0
4/27/2011	0.95678	0.9165	0.77464	0
6/22/2011	0.95784	0.92078	0.78063	0
8/9/2011	0.96184	0.92744	0.78971	0
9/21/2011	0.96395	0.9243	0.77681	0
11/2/2011	0.96886	0.93138	0.77981	0
12/13/2011	0.96713	0.92752	0.76111	0
1/25/2012	0.96626	0.92475	0.75161	0
3/13/2012	0.96659	0.9276	0.76286	0
4/25/2012	0.96663	0.92885	0.77219	0
6/20/2012	0.97068	0.93292	0.78848	0
8/1/2012	0.97116	0.93399	0.78069	0
9/13/2012	0.96906	0.92779	0.76909	0
10/24/2012	0.97131	0.93417	0.78854	0
12/12/2012	0.96984	0.93022	0.78219	0
1/30/2013	0.97062	0.93328	0.77956	0
3/20/2013	0.97294	0.93878	0.7969	0
5/1/2013	0.97398	0.94087	0.80206	0
6/19/2013	0.97746	0.9502	0.83016	0
7/31/2013	0.98064	0.95682	0.85399	0
9/18/2013	0.98732	0.97624	0.8902	0
10/30/2013	0.98792	0.97748	0.89749	0
12/18/2013	0.99026	0.98398	0.9143	0
1/29/2014	0.99151	0.98625	0.92892	0
3/19/2014	0.99132	0.98476	0.92173	0
4/30/2014	0.99153	0.98518	0.91963	0
6/18/2014	0.99179	0.98536	0.92014	0
7/30/2014	0.99171	0.98532	0.92158	0
9/17/2014	0.99333	0.98882	0.93748	0
10/29/2014	0.98834	0.981	0.91051	0
12/17/2014	0.98865	0.98191	0.91374	0

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Table 1. Tracking changes in the December 2008 FOMC statement

Strikeout shows language that appeared in the October 2008 postmeeting statement but did not appear in the December 2008 statement; red language appeared in the December statement but not in the October statement; and words in black but not strikeout appeared in both statements.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its [start red text] establish a [end red text] target [start red text] range [end red text] for the federal funds rate 50 basis points [start red text] of 0 [end red text] to 1 [start red text] /4 [end red text] percent.

The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly, owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures. Business equipment spending and industrial production have weakened in recent months, and slowing economic activity in many foreign economies is damping the prospects for U.S. exports. Moreover, the intensification of financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit. [start red text] Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined.  Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight.  Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. [end red text]

[start red text] Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. [end red text] In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate [start red text] further [end red text] in coming quarters [start strikethrough] to levels consistent with price stability. [end strikethrough]

[start strikethrough] Recent policy actions, including today's rate reduction, coordinated interest rate cuts by central banks, extraordinary liquidity measures, and official steps to strengthen financial systems, should help over time to improve credit conditions and promote a return to moderate economic growth. Nevertheless, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. [end strikethrough]

[start red text] The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.  In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.  As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant.  The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities.  Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses.  The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity. [end red text]

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