The Effect of Hurricane Matthew on Consumer Spending, Accessible Data
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Figure 1: Twelve-month Percent Changes in Retail Sales Group Spending
| Date | First Data | Census |
|---|---|---|
| 9/1/2013 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| 10/1/2013 | 5.4 | 4.5 |
| 11/1/2013 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| 12/1/2013 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| 1/1/2014 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 2/1/2014 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| 3/1/2014 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 4/1/2014 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| 5/1/2014 | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| 6/1/2014 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| 7/1/2014 | 6.0 | 5.4 |
| 8/1/2014 | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| 9/1/2014 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| 10/1/2014 | 6.4 | 5.8 |
| 11/1/2014 | 5.2 | 4.0 |
| 12/1/2014 | 7.6 | 5.8 |
| 1/1/2015 | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| 2/1/2015 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| 3/1/2015 | 5.3 | 4.7 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| 5/1/2015 | 4.7 | 3.5 |
| 6/1/2015 | 6.5 | 5.0 |
| 7/1/2015 | 6.3 | 5.3 |
| 8/1/2015 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 9/1/2015 | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| 10/1/2015 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| 11/1/2015 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| 12/1/2015 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| 1/1/2016 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| 2/1/2016 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| 4/1/2016 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| 5/1/2016 | 0.9 | 3.1 |
| 6/1/2016 | 3.0 | 4.9 |
| 7/1/2016 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| 9/1/2016 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
Source: First Data Retail volume aggregates, Census Bureau.
Note: Retail sales group is all retail sales and food services establishments minus motor vehicle dealers, building material stores, and gasoline stations. Not seasonally adjusted.
Figure 2: Path of Hurricane Matthew
Chart shows the path of Hurricane Matthew, beginning in Haiti on October 4, 2016. The Hurricane reached East Coast of Florida on October 6, 2016 before moving up past Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. It moved out into the Atlantic Ocean on October 9, 2016. The figure also shows that Hurricane Matthew weakened in intensity as it moved up the East Coast of the United States.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hurricane Matthew Advisory Archive, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/MATTHEW.shtml, mapped with Google Maps api. Note: Weather data mapped using the ggmap package in R, as presented in Kahle and Wickham (2013).
Figure 3: Daily Retail Sales Group Spending in Florida
| Date | Indexed Value |
|---|---|
| 9/21/2016 | 1.44 |
| 9/22/2016 | 1.49 |
| 9/23/2016 | 1.61 |
| 9/24/2016 | 1.41 |
| 9/25/2016 | 0.99 |
| 9/26/2016 | 1.45 |
| 9/27/2016 | 1.39 |
| 9/28/2016 | 1.43 |
| 9/29/2016 | 1.42 |
| 9/30/2016 | 1.78 |
| 10/1/2016 | 1.57 |
| 10/2/2016 | 0.97 |
| 10/3/2016 | 1.47 |
| 10/4/2016 | 1.47 |
| 10/5/2016 | 1.52 |
| 10/6/2016 | 1.04 |
| 10/7/2016 | 1.11 |
| 10/8/2016 | 1.32 |
| 10/9/2016 | 0.95 |
| 10/10/2016 | 1.51 |
| 10/11/2016 | 1.50 |
| 10/12/2016 | 1.45 |
| 10/13/2016 | 1.56 |
| 10/14/2016 | 1.72 |
| 10/15/2016 | 1.50 |
| 10/16/2016 | 1.04 |
| 10/17/2016 | 1.49 |
| 10/18/2016 | 1.42 |
| 10/19/2016 | 1.49 |
| 10/20/2016 | 1.54 |
| 10/21/2016 | 1.73 |
Source: First Data Retail volume aggregates.
Note: Retail sales group is all retail sales and food services establishments minus motor vehicle dealers, building material stores, and gasoline stations. Not seasonally adjusted.
Figure 4: Estimated Effect of Hurricane Matthew on Daily Retail Sales Group Spending in Florida
| Date | Estimated Percent Deviation in Sales | Lower Bound on 95% Confidence Interval | Upper Bound on 95% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2/2016 | -2.7 | -20.7 | 15.2 |
| 10/3/2016 | 0.3 | -18.2 | 18.8 |
| 10/4/2016 | -0.1 | -18.5 | 18.3 |
| 10/5/2016 | 0.4 | -18.1 | 18.9 |
| 10/6/2016 | -29.7 | -42.7 | -16.7 |
| 10/7/2016 | -37.4 | -49.0 | -25.9 |
| 10/8/2016 | -12.8 | -28.9 | 3.3 |
| 10/9/2016 | -4.9 | -22.4 | 12.7 |
| 10/10/2016 | 3.3 | -15.8 | 22.4 |
| 10/11/2016 | 1.7 | -17.1 | 20.5 |
| 10/12/2016 | -4.3 | -22.0 | 13.3 |
| 10/13/2016 | 5.7 | -13.8 | 25.2 |
Source: First Data Retail volume aggregates.
Note. For ease of interpretation, we convert the log-deviations from the regression into percent deviations in daily spending. The dots are the estimated coefficients for the daily hurricane effects and the whiskers are the 95-percent confidence interval.
Figure 5: Effect of Hurricane Matthew on Selected Components of Daily Retail Sales Group Spending in Florida
Groceries
| Date | Estimated Percent Deviation in Sales | Lower Bound on 95% Confidence Interval | Upper Bound on 95% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2/2016 | 15.9 | -10.1 | 41.8 |
| 10/3/2016 | 3.5 | -19.7 | 26.7 |
| 10/4/2016 | 17.7 | -8.7 | 44.1 |
| 10/5/2016 | 47.6 | 14.6 | 80.7 |
| 10/6/2016 | 13.1 | -12.3 | 38.4 |
| 10/7/2016 | -35.3 | -49.8 | -20.8 |
| 10/8/2016 | -3.7 | -25.3 | 17.8 |
| 10/9/2016 | 14.5 | -11.1 | 40.2 |
| 10/10/2016 | 6.1 | -17.6 | 29.9 |
| 10/11/2016 | 0.5 | -22.0 | 23.0 |
| 10/12/2016 | -1.9 | -23.9 | 20.0 |
| 10/13/2016 | 1.2 | -21.5 | 23.8 |
Restaurants
| Date | Estimated Percent Deviation in Sales | Lower Bound on 95% Confidence Interval | Upper Bound on 95% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2/2016 | -6.0 | -18.6 | 6.6 |
| 10/3/2016 | -5.4 | -18.1 | 7.3 |
| 10/4/2016 | -5.8 | -18.5 | 6.8 |
| 10/5/2016 | -9.2 | -21.4 | 3.0 |
| 10/6/2016 | -38.7 | -46.9 | -30.5 |
| 10/7/2016 | -33.0 | -42.0 | -24.0 |
| 10/8/2016 | -12.2 | -24.0 | -0.4 |
| 10/9/2016 | -7.4 | -19.8 | 5.0 |
| 10/10/2016 | -1.1 | -14.4 | 12.1 |
| 10/11/2016 | -4.3 | -17.1 | 8.6 |
| 10/12/2016 | -2.5 | -15.5 | 10.6 |
| 10/13/2016 | -0.3 | -13.7 | 13.0 |
Clothing Stores
| Date | Estimated Percent Deviation in Sales | Lower Bound on 95% Confidence Interval | Upper Bound on 95% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2/2016 | -16.4 | -35.5 | 2.7 |
| 10/3/2016 | -18.2 | -36.9 | 0.4 |
| 10/4/2016 | -25.2 | -42.3 | -8.1 |
| 10/5/2016 | -32.0 | -47.6 | -16.5 |
| 10/6/2016 | -59.8 | -69.0 | -50.6 |
| 10/7/2016 | -35.1 | -49.9 | -20.2 |
| 10/8/2016 | -12.9 | -32.8 | 7.0 |
| 10/9/2016 | -12.0 | -32.2 | 8.1 |
| 10/10/2016 | 1.8 | -21.4 | 25.1 |
| 10/11/2016 | -1.7 | -24.1 | 20.8 |
| 10/12/2016 | -9.9 | -30.5 | 10.7 |
| 10/13/2016 | 11.7 | -13.8 | 37.3 |
Source: First Data Retail volume aggregates.
Notes. In Florida, grocery stores account for 18 percent of total retail sales group spending, restaurants 20 percent, and clothing stores 10 percent. The dots are the estimated coefficients for the daily hurricane effects and the whiskers are the 95 percent confidence interval.
Figure 6: Effect on Daily National Retail Sales Group Spending by Hurricane
Hurricane Matthew
| Date | Estimated Percent Deviation in Sales | Lower Bound on 95% Confidence Interval | Upper Bound on 95% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2/2016 | 0.22 | -1.53 | 1.96 |
| 10/3/2016 | 0.37 | -1.41 | 2.15 |
| 10/4/2016 | -0.11 | -1.82 | 1.61 |
| 10/5/2016 | -0.50 | -2.19 | 1.18 |
| 10/6/2016 | -2.21 | -3.67 | -0.75 |
| 10/7/2016 | -3.57 | -4.89 | -2.25 |
| 10/8/2016 | -2.65 | -4.11 | -1.19 |
| 10/9/2016 | -0.80 | -2.46 | 0.87 |
| 10/10/2016 | -0.02 | -1.77 | 1.74 |
| 10/11/2016 | -0.60 | -2.28 | 1.09 |
| 10/12/2016 | -0.97 | -2.61 | 0.68 |
| 10/13/2016 | 0.34 | -1.45 | 2.12 |
Hurricane Sandy
| Date | Estimated Percent Deviation in Sales | Lower Bound on 95% Confidence Interval | Upper Bound on 95% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25/2012 | 1.02 | -1.39 | 3.42 |
| 10/26/2012 | -0.22 | -2.51 | 2.07 |
| 10/27/2012 | 0.79 | -1.61 | 3.19 |
| 10/28/2012 | -0.82 | -3.10 | 1.46 |
| 10/29/2012 | -9.76 | -11.29 | -8.23 |
| 10/30/2012 | -9.48 | -11.03 | -7.92 |
| 10/31/2012 | -4.68 | -6.62 | -2.74 |
| 11/1/2012 | -1.17 | -3.44 | 1.09 |
| 11/2/2012 | -3.18 | -5.26 | -1.10 |
| 11/3/2012 | -2.32 | -4.48 | -0.17 |
| 11/4/2012 | -2.77 | -4.85 | -0.69 |
| 11/5/2012 | -0.63 | -2.94 | 1.68 |
Source: First Data Retail volume aggregates, Census Bureau.
Note: The state-level spending weights used to aggregate up to national effects are from the 2012 Economic Census. The dots are the estimated coefficients for the daily hurricane effects and the whiskers are the 95 percent confidence interval.