Accessible version of figures

Figure 1 left panel: Federal Funds Rate projected paths from 2010Q1 to 2025Q4

This figure plots the quarterly federal funds rate paths from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path is depicted as a solid black line and remains less than or equal to 0.13 percent from 2010Q1 to 2015Q4 then rises to 2.9 percent in 2025Q4. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively, from 2016Q3 to 2025Q4. The bottom of the 70th percentile range begins at 0.40 percent and ends at 0.63 percent. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at 0.78 percent on and ends at 5.81 percent. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at 0.26 percent and ends at 0.25 percent. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at 0.89 percent and ends at 7.27 percent.

Figure 1 right panel: 10-year Treasury Rate projected paths from 2010Q1 to 2025Q4

This figure plots the quarterly 10-year Treasury rate paths from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path is depicted as a solid black line and is 3.86 percent in 2010Q3 with some variation before 2016Q3 and then steadily rises to 3.92 percent in 2025Q4. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively, from 2016Q3 to 2025Q4. The bottom of the 70th percentile range begins at 1.47 percent and with little variation, rises to 2.82 percent by the end of 2025. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at 2.60 percent and consistently rises to 5.68 percent in 2025Q5. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at 1.15 percent and with slight fluctuations, rises to 2.08 percent. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at 2.97 percent and with little variation, rises to 6.62 percent in 2025Q4.

Date	Federal Funds Rate Modal Path	10-Year Treasury Rate Modal Path
1 March 2010	0.13	3.87
1 June 2010	0.19	3.62
1 September 2010	0.19	2.90
1 December 2010	0.19	2.97
1 March 2011	0.16	3.53
1 June 2011	0.09	3.28
1 September 2011	0.08	2.48
1 December 2011	0.07	2.09
1 March 2012	0.10	2.06
1 June 2012	0.15	1.83
1 September 2012	0.14	1.64
1 December 2012	0.16	1.69
1 March 2013	0.14	1.95
1 June 2013	0.12	1.99
1 September 2013	0.08	2.75
1 December 2013	0.09	2.79
1 March 2014	0.07	2.80
1 June 2014	0.09	2.65
1 September 2014	0.09	2.53
1 December 2014	0.10	2.32
1 March 2015	0.11	2.02
1 June 2015	0.12	2.22
1 September 2015	0.14	2.26
1 December 2015	0.16	2.24
1 March 2016	0.36	1.97
1 June 2016	0.37	1.79
1 September 2016	0.50	2.00
1 December 2016	0.55	2.19
1 March 2017	0.65	2.38
1 June 2017	0.76	2.54
1 September 2017	0.89	2.70
1 December 2017	1.02	2.84
1 March 2018	1.19	2.97
1 June 2018	1.38	3.09
1 September 2018	1.58	3.20
1 December 2018	1.79	3.29
1 March 2019	2.00	3.37
1 June 2019	2.20	3.45
1 September 2019	2.38	3.51
1 December 2019	2.53	3.56
1 March 2020	2.65	3.61
1 June 2020	2.73	3.65
1 September 2020	2.78	3.68
1 December 2020	2.81	3.71
1 March 2021	2.83	3.73
1 June 2021	2.85	3.76
1 September 2021	2.87	3.78
1 December 2021	2.88	3.79
1 March 2022	2.88	3.81
1 June 2022	2.89	3.82
1 September 2022	2.89	3.83
1 December 2022	2.89	3.85
1 March 2023	2.90	3.86
1 June 2023	2.90	3.86
1 September 2023	2.90	3.87
1 December 2023	2.90	3.88
1 March 2024	2.90	3.89
1 June 2024	2.90	3.89
1 September 2024	2.90	3.90
1 December 2024	2.90	3.90
1 March 2025	2.90	3.91
1 June 2025	2.90	3.91
1 September 2025	2.90	3.91
1 December 2025	2.90	3.92

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Figure 2 left panel: SOMA Holdings from 2010 to 2025

This left panel plots projected monthly SOMA holdings in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of SOMA holdings is depicted at a solid black line and begins at $1,910.42 billion in January 2010 and rises to $4237.20 billion in February 2015 and with small variations, remains steady until February 2018. The modal path then slowly declines to $2,205.10 in February 2023 and thereafter, the modal path steadily rises to $2,533.07 billion in December 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016Q3 to 2025Q4 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at $4,213 billion and ends at $2,413.40 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $4,229.90 billion and ends at $2,677.50 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at $4,204.30 billion and ends at $2,333.50 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $4,232.70 billion and ends at $2,762.90 billion.

Figure 2 right panel: Reserve Balances from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected monthly reserve balances in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected reserve balances is depicted as a solid black line and begins at $1,154 billion in January 2010 and with variation rises to $2761.89 billion in August 2014 then with small variations, holds steady until February 2018, and thereafter steadily declines to $100 billion in November 2022. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016Q3 to 2025Q4 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at $2,446.80 billion and ends at $100 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $2,464.70 billion and ends at $100 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at $2,467.80 billion and ends at $100 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $2467 billion and ends at $100 billion.

Date	SOMA Holdings Modal Path	Reserve Balances Modal Path
1 January 2010	1910.42	1153.99
1 February 2010	1970.83	1225.13
1 March 2010	2014.39	1053.88
1 April 2010	2042.12	1003.07
1 May 2010	2057.14	1082.73
1 June 2010	2059.88	972.34
1 July 2010	2053.99	1079.10
1 August 2010	2045.95	984.28
1 September 2010	2044.31	932.44
1 October 2010	2040.24	1009.66
1 November 2010	2081.47	965.89
1 December 2010	2161.09	968.05
1 January 2011	2238.30	1043.44
1 February 2011	2319.84	1255.65
1 March 2011	2410.10	1406.98
1 April 2011	2472.32	1481.15
1 May 2011	2567.25	1552.05
1 June 2011	2645.10	1595.94
1 July 2011	2647.93	1614.46
1 August 2011	2646.83	1592.00
1 September 2011	2643.81	1592.41
1 October 2011	2619.75	1539.40
1 November 2011	2605.00	1487.25
1 December 2011	2605.12	1562.25
1 January 2012	2597.45	1532.30
1 February 2012	2603.21	1607.11
1 March 2012	2594.40	1546.87
1 April 2012	2603.40	1440.65
1 May 2012	2606.44	1467.05
1 June 2012	2606.40	1506.98
1 July 2012	2589.00	1497.54
1 August 2012	2573.34	1514.78
1 September 2012	2563.68	1437.32
1 October 2012	2579.27	1434.40
1 November 2012	2620.64	1516.87
1 December 2012	2669.59	1491.04
1 January 2013	2750.98	1599.21
1 February 2013	2844.07	1695.14
1 March 2013	2939.42	1787.31
1 April 2013	3036.42	1771.11
1 May 2013	3124.08	2004.95
1 June 2013	3213.90	2013.26
1 July 2013	3295.89	2120.84
1 August 2013	3385.57	2267.38
1 September 2013	3475.02	2220.74
1 October 2013	3570.52	2377.37
1 November 2013	3661.90	2485.20
1 December 2013	3756.16	2249.07
1 January 2014	3831.69	2524.80
1 February 2014	3904.80	2608.27
1 March 2014	3970.06	2430.06
1 April 2014	4027.11	2514.44
1 May 2014	4066.82	2664.83
1 June 2014	4108.14	2363.42
1 July 2014	4136.79	2690.41
1 August 2014	4156.86	2761.89
1 September 2014	4188.17	2537.85
1 October 2014	4219.16	2519.84
1 November 2014	4230.13	2416.55
1 December 2014	4236.87	2378.00
1 January 2015	4237.01	2665.59
1 February 2015	4237.20	2513.02
1 March 2015	4228.37	2437.28
1 April 2015	4214.81	2508.28
1 May 2015	4219.05	2400.86
1 June 2015	4228.91	2242.47
1 July 2015	4231.48	2563.64
1 August 2015	4233.68	2596.55
1 September 2015	4238.27	2197.66
1 October 2015	4240.02	2596.44
1 November 2015	4239.34	2425.13
1 December 2015	4241.96	1977.17
1 January 2016	4236.81	2329.31
1 February 2016	4244.28	2407.37
1 March 2016	4243.67	2125.36
1 April 2016	4233.35	2342.41
1 May 2016	4229.91	2317.12
1 June 2016	4230.97	2038.27
1 July 2016	4226.42	2274.55
1 August 2016	4230.12	2230.61
1 September 2016	4223.51	2457.83
1 October 2016	4221.50	2449.74
1 November 2016	4223.99	2446.25
1 December 2016	4222.93	2439.34
1 January 2017	4227.32	2437.25
1 February 2017	4227.43	2431.31
1 March 2017	4227.31	2425.47
1 April 2017	4226.50	2418.88
1 May 2017	4225.35	2412.00
1 June 2017	4226.13	2407.03
1 July 2017	4228.21	2403.18
1 August 2017	4229.84	2398.91
1 September 2017	4234.24	2397.41
1 October 2017	4236.89	2393.93
1 November 2017	4234.84	2385.90
1 December 2017	4235.81	2381.16
1 January 2018	4238.98	2378.31
1 February 2018	4240.20	2373.37
1 March 2018	4239.15	2366.07
1 April 2018	4238.32	2358.86
1 May 2018	4238.66	2352.85
1 June 2018	4235.93	2343.75
1 July 2018	4206.05	2307.37
1 August 2018	4157.00	2251.63
1 September 2018	4123.98	2211.57
1 October 2018	4086.32	2166.81
1 November 2018	4011.56	2084.92
1 December 2018	3978.09	2044.36
1 January 2019	3950.44	2018.24
1 February 2019	3880.13	1949.45
1 March 2019	3841.71	1912.54
1 April 2019	3796.88	1869.17
1 May 2019	3722.64	1796.38
1 June 2019	3684.21	1759.38
1 July 2019	3647.31	1723.88
1 August 2019	3563.21	1641.18
1 September 2019	3535.99	1615.43
1 October 2019	3504.83	1585.71
1 November 2019	3440.84	1523.13
1 December 2019	3413.73	1497.46
1 January 2020	3382.26	1459.12
1 February 2020	3310.61	1380.59
1 March 2020	3274.30	1337.40
1 April 2020	3243.43	1299.60
1 May 2020	3163.27	1212.50
1 June 2020	3124.48	1166.78
1 July 2020	3098.93	1134.28
1 August 2020	3029.22	1057.62
1 September 2020	3008.38	1029.88
1 October 2020	2995.19	1009.79
1 November 2020	2959.88	967.54
1 December 2020	2942.24	942.97
1 January 2021	2919.77	913.57
1 February 2021	2858.15	845.03
1 March 2021	2835.17	815.13
1 April 2021	2809.08	782.08
1 May 2021	2732.14	698.16
1 June 2021	2713.04	672.10
1 July 2021	2697.54	649.61
1 August 2021	2650.66	595.74
1 September 2021	2637.51	575.63
1 October 2021	2624.58	555.72
1 November 2021	2559.72	483.85
1 December 2021	2545.46	462.65
1 January 2022	2530.56	440.81
1 February 2022	2472.95	376.25
1 March 2022	2458.77	355.10
1 April 2022	2443.68	332.99
1 May 2022	2386.36	268.63
1 June 2022	2371.59	246.78
1 July 2022	2356.85	224.95
1 August 2022	2296.24	157.24
1 September 2022	2283.11	136.99
1 October 2022	2270.92	117.67
1 November 2022	2260.40	100.00
1 December 2022	2267.56	100.00
1 January 2023	2274.73	100.00
1 February 2023	2281.91	100.00
1 March 2023	2289.10	100.00
1 April 2023	2296.33	100.00
1 May 2023	2303.57	100.00
1 June 2023	2310.85	100.00
1 July 2023	2318.16	100.00
1 August 2023	2325.48	100.00
1 September 2023	2332.78	100.00
1 October 2023	2340.10	100.00
1 November 2023	2347.45	100.00
1 December 2023	2354.60	100.00
1 January 2024	2361.84	100.00
1 February 2024	2369.12	100.00
1 March 2024	2376.14	100.00
1 April 2024	2383.43	100.00
1 May 2024	2390.75	100.00
1 June 2024	2398.03	100.00
1 July 2024	2405.39	100.00
1 August 2024	2412.80	100.00
1 September 2024	2420.18	100.00
1 October 2024	2427.61	100.00
1 November 2024	2435.10	100.00
1 December 2024	2442.48	100.00
1 January 2025	2449.94	100.00
1 February 2025	2457.28	100.00
1 March 2025	2464.63	100.00
1 April 2025	2472.10	100.00
1 May 2025	2479.61	100.00
1 June 2025	2487.12	100.00
1 July 2025	2494.67	100.00
1 August 2025	2502.35	100.00
1 September 2025	2509.93	100.00
1 October 2025	2517.62	100.00
1 November 2025	2525.36	100.00
1 December 2025	2533.07	100.00

Return to text.

Figure 3 left panel: SOMA Treasury Holdings from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected monthly Treasury Holdings in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected Treasury holdings is depicted as a solid black line and begins at $776.62 billion in January 2010 and rises steeply on three occasions and reaches $2461.57 billion in October 2014. Then the modal path of Treasury holdings holds steady before steadily declines in July 2018 and falls to $1,661.15 billion in December 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016Q3 to 2025Q4 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at $2,463.30 billion and ends at $1,582.90 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $2,464.60 billion and ends at $1,897.20 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at $2,462.0 billion and ends at $1504 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $2,465.10 billion and ends at $2,021.90 billion.

Figure 3 right panel: SOMA Agency MBS Holdings from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected monthly reserve balances in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected SOMA Agency MBS holdings is depicted as a solid black line and begins at $970.12 billion in January 2010 and rises to $1,753.09 billion in March 2016 and holds steady and then steadily declines in August 2018 and ends at $869.58 billion in December 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016Q3 to 2025Q4 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at $1,728.70 billion and ends at $671.65 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $1,745.20 billion and ends at $923.12 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at $1,720.20 billion and ends at $535.11 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $1,747.90 billion and ends at $953.44 billion.

Date	SOMA Treasury Holdings Modal Path	SOMA Agency MBS Holdings Modal Path
1 January 2010	776.62	970.12
1 February 2010	776.54	1026.78
1 March 2010	776.70	1068.70
1 April 2010	776.72	1097.29
1 May 2010	776.91	1113.51
1 June 2010	776.99	1118.13
1 July 2010	777.02	1117.59
1 August 2010	786.28	1103.17
1 September 2010	811.67	1078.54
1 October 2010	839.52	1051.04
1 November 2010	910.64	1022.65
1 December 2010	1021.49	992.14
1 January 2011	1128.60	965.08
1 February 2011	1227.66	948.93
1 March 2011	1340.45	937.16
1 April 2011	1420.18	927.02
1 May 2011	1530.30	917.86
1 June 2011	1619.54	908.85
1 July 2011	1638.21	897.28
1 August 2011	1652.11	884.95
1 September 2011	1664.66	870.88
1 October 2011	1662.82	849.26
1 November 2011	1672.04	827.05
1 December 2011	1663.45	837.68
1 January 2012	1659.94	836.01
1 February 2012	1661.60	840.80
1 March 2012	1661.13	836.79
1 April 2012	1661.03	847.80
1 May 2012	1661.43	851.75
1 June 2012	1659.91	855.00
1 July 2012	1644.52	853.46
1 August 2012	1642.43	843.69
1 September 2012	1645.29	834.99
1 October 2012	1645.33	852.04
1 November 2012	1657.73	883.62
1 December 2012	1666.14	926.66
1 January 2013	1710.04	965.83
1 February 2013	1754.55	1015.94
1 March 2013	1796.05	1070.95
1 April 2013	1842.85	1121.52
1 May 2013	1888.22	1164.97
1 June 2013	1936.59	1208.13
1 July 2013	1982.41	1246.96
1 August 2013	2028.50	1291.36
1 September 2013	2072.28	1342.09
1 October 2013	2117.75	1393.69
1 November 2013	2163.67	1439.86
1 December 2013	2208.78	1490.16
1 January 2014	2244.55	1532.23
1 February 2014	2283.29	1570.09
1 March 2014	2319.61	1603.11
1 April 2014	2350.27	1631.87
1 May 2014	2374.76	1647.98
1 June 2014	2400.58	1663.90
1 July 2014	2420.30	1674.36
1 August 2014	2436.99	1678.31
1 September 2014	2451.74	1696.42
1 October 2014	2461.57	1717.89
1 November 2014	2461.65	1729.80
1 December 2014	2461.36	1736.83
1 January 2015	2460.74	1738.68
1 February 2015	2460.10	1740.22
1 March 2015	2459.56	1731.93
1 April 2015	2460.05	1718.86
1 May 2015	2460.73	1722.43
1 June 2015	2460.96	1732.06
1 July 2015	2461.54	1734.84
1 August 2015	2461.94	1736.65
1 September 2015	2461.95	1741.23
1 October 2015	2461.78	1744.09
1 November 2015	2461.60	1744.79
1 December 2015	2461.55	1747.46
1 January 2016	2461.31	1744.18
1 February 2016	2461.14	1751.83
1 March 2016	2461.32	1753.09
1 April 2016	2461.42	1744.83
1 May 2016	2461.74	1743.08
1 June 2016	2462.33	1743.54
1 July 2016	2462.83	1741.10
1 August 2016	2463.65	1743.98
1 September 2016	2463.94	1739.07
1 October 2016	2464.14	1738.87
1 November 2016	2464.34	1741.16
1 December 2016	2464.53	1742.22
1 January 2017	2464.75	1746.39
1 February 2017	2464.97	1749.13
1 March 2017	2465.16	1748.82
1 April 2017	2465.39	1749.29
1 May 2017	2465.61	1750.91
1 June 2017	2465.83	1752.20
1 July 2017	2466.06	1754.05
1 August 2017	2466.29	1756.79
1 September 2017	2466.53	1760.96
1 October 2017	2466.77	1763.37
1 November 2017	2467.02	1763.43
1 December 2017	2467.25	1764.16
1 January 2018	2467.49	1767.11
1 February 2018	2467.72	1768.09
1 March 2018	2467.93	1766.84
1 April 2018	2468.15	1765.79
1 May 2018	2468.36	1765.91
1 June 2018	2468.58	1764.95
1 July 2018	2438.11	1765.53
1 August 2018	2394.33	1760.27
1 September 2018	2374.37	1747.21
1 October 2018	2350.59	1733.32
1 November 2018	2290.10	1719.04
1 December 2018	2270.84	1704.85
1 January 2019	2255.98	1692.05
1 February 2019	2198.43	1679.29
1 March 2019	2173.92	1665.44
1 April 2019	2143.55	1650.98
1 May 2019	2083.55	1636.74
1 June 2019	2060.26	1621.60
1 July 2019	2038.38	1606.59
1 August 2019	1968.64	1592.23
1 September 2019	1954.69	1578.96
1 October 2019	1936.74	1565.75
1 November 2019	1886.29	1552.20
1 December 2019	1872.36	1539.02
1 January 2020	1852.88	1527.04
1 February 2020	1792.97	1515.29
1 March 2020	1769.28	1502.67
1 April 2020	1751.75	1489.33
1 May 2020	1684.74	1476.19
1 June 2020	1659.79	1462.35
1 July 2020	1648.00	1448.58
1 August 2020	1591.57	1435.31
1 September 2020	1583.14	1422.89
1 October 2020	1582.29	1410.56
1 November 2020	1559.57	1397.97
1 December 2020	1554.02	1385.87
1 January 2021	1542.55	1374.87
1 February 2021	1491.62	1364.18
1 March 2021	1480.03	1352.79
1 April 2021	1465.98	1340.75
1 May 2021	1400.87	1328.93
1 June 2021	1394.16	1316.54
1 July 2021	1390.96	1304.23
1 August 2021	1355.97	1292.34
1 September 2021	1353.96	1281.20
1 October 2021	1352.05	1270.19
1 November 2021	1298.35	1259.03
1 December 2021	1294.76	1248.35
1 January 2022	1289.58	1238.63
1 February 2022	1241.39	1229.21
1 March 2022	1237.18	1219.25
1 April 2022	1232.58	1208.75
1 May 2022	1185.57	1198.44
1 June 2022	1181.59	1187.65
1 July 2022	1177.54	1176.96
1 August 2022	1127.30	1166.59
1 September 2022	1123.92	1156.84
1 October 2022	1121.28	1147.29
1 November 2022	1120.44	1137.62
1 December 2022	1136.79	1128.42
1 January 2023	1152.39	1120.00
1 February 2023	1167.66	1111.91
1 March 2023	1183.21	1103.54
1 April 2023	1199.20	1094.79
1 May 2023	1214.99	1086.23
1 June 2023	1231.03	1077.47
1 July 2023	1246.98	1068.83
1 August 2023	1262.74	1060.39
1 September 2023	1278.08	1052.35
1 October 2023	1293.37	1044.38
1 November 2023	1308.70	1036.39
1 December 2023	1323.35	1028.90
1 January 2024	1337.57	1021.93
1 February 2024	1351.51	1015.26
1 March 2024	1365.41	1008.39
1 April 2024	1379.95	1001.13
1 May 2024	1394.43	993.97
1 June 2024	1408.99	986.70
1 July 2024	1423.60	979.44
1 August 2024	1438.17	972.28
1 September 2024	1452.49	965.34
1 October 2024	1466.81	958.45
1 November 2024	1481.25	951.51
1 December 2024	1495.17	944.96
1 January 2025	1508.82	938.77
1 February 2025	1522.10	932.84
1 March 2025	1535.54	926.75
1 April 2025	1549.45	920.30
1 May 2025	1563.35	913.91
1 June 2025	1577.33	907.44
1 July 2025	1591.38	900.95
1 August 2025	1605.50	894.50
1 September 2025	1619.39	888.19
1 October 2025	1633.38	881.90
1 November 2025	1647.45	875.56
1 December 2025	1661.15	869.58

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Figure 4: Unrealized Gains and Losses from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected annual unrealized gains and losses in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected unrealized gains and losses is depicted as a solid black line and begins at $53.64 billion in 2010 and with some variation rises to $203.11 billion in 2012 then falls steeply to -$55.87 billion in 2013 and again rises to $181.22 billion in 2014 and remains above $100 billion through 2016. Then the modal path of unrealized gains and losses declines to -$33.75 billion in 2017 and thereafter remains below $100 billion and falls to -$124.32 billion in 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016 to 2025 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at -$57.93 billion and ends at -$331 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $265 billion and ends at $6.26 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at -$181 billion and ends at -$430 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $363 billion and ends at $95.11 billion.

Date	Unrealized Gains/Losses Modal Path
2010	53.64
2011	199.11
2012	203.11
2013	-55.87
2014	181.22
2015	107.85
2016	110.32
2017	-33.75
2018	-129.17
2019	-167.42
2020	-171.67
2021	-163.85
2022	-153.24
2023	-146.30
2024	-135.41
2025	-124.32

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Figure 5 left panel: Interest Income from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected annual interest income in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected interest income is depicted as a solid black line and begins at $82.72 billion in 2010 and with some variation rises to a peak of $116.01 billion in 2014 and holds above $100 billion through 2019 and then consistently falls to reach $80 billion in 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016 to 2025 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at $113 billion and ends at $67 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $115 billion and ends at $97.62 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at $111 billion and ends at $59.23 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $115 billion and ends at $109 billion.

Figure 5 right panel: Interest Expense from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected annual interest expense in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected interest expense is depicted as a solid black line and begins at $3.05 billion in 2010 and consistently rises to $50.11 billion in 2019 and then falls to $10.31 billion in 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016 to 2025 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at $12.84 billion and ends at $2.61 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $18.41 billion and ends at $20.38 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at $12.16 billion and ends at $1 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $20.01 billion and ends at $25.54 billion.

Date	Interest Income Modal Path	Interest Expense Modal Path
2010	82.72	3.05
2011	87.98	4.10
2012	82.04	4.17
2013	90.52	5.28
2014	116.01	6.98
2015	113.61	7.18
2016	113.98	14.82
2017	114.05	26.63
2018	115.82	42.27
2019	105.91	50.11
2020	92.35	41.78
2021	81.88	28.57
2022	73.36	15.38
2023	72.01	10.30
2024	75.99	10.31
2025	79.99	10.31

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Figure 6 left panel: Remittances to Treasury from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected annual remittances in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected annual remittances is depicted as a solid black line and begins at $79.27 billion in 2010 and with small variations rise to $117.12 billion in 2015 then declines steadily to $61.71 billion in 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016 to 2025 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range starts at $89.43 billion and ends at $52.67 billion. The top of the 70th percentile range starts at $95.40 billion and ends at $72.19 billion. The bottom of the 90th percentile range starts at $87.36 billion and ends at $46.21 billion. The top of the 90th percentile range begins at $96.56 billion and ends at $78.89 billion.

Figure 6 right panel: Deferred Asset from 2010 to 2025

This figure plots projected annual deferred assets in billions of dollars from the stochastic simulations and the September modal path. The modal path of projected reserve balances is depicted as a solid black line and is zero from 2010 to 2025. The confidence intervals of 70th and 90th percentiles for 2016 to 2025 are shown as bands of dark red and blue, respectively. The bottom of the 70th percentile range is zero throughout 2016 to 2025. The top of the 70th percentile range starts is zero through 2016 to 2025. The bottom of the 90th percentile range is zero from 2016 to 2025. The top of the 90th percentile range is zero from 2016 to 2017 and rises to $0.93 billion in 2018 and then rises steeply to $14.86 billion in 2020, and thereafter falls to zero in 2021 and then remains at zero from 2021 to 2025.

Date	Remittances to Treasury Modal Path
2010	79.27
2011	75.42
2012	88.42
2013	79.63
2014	96.90
2015	117.12
2016	93.56
2017	80.51
2018	66.44
2019	48.52
2020	43.15
2021	45.77
2022	50.33
2023	53.95
2024	57.82
2025	61.71

The deferred asset modal path is 0 from 2010 to 2025.

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* This FEDS Note was revised on February 13, 2017 to include the data underlying the black lines in the figures. Return to text.