Causes of the Global Trade Slowdown, Accessible Data
PrintAccessible version of figures
Figure 1. World Trade*
2010 = 100 (Ratio scale)
| Dates | Real | Nominal |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-90 | NA | NA |
| Feb-90 | NA | NA |
| Mar-90 | NA | NA |
| Apr-90 | NA | NA |
| May-90 | NA | NA |
| Jun-90 | NA | NA |
| Jul-90 | NA | NA |
| Aug-90 | NA | NA |
| Sep-90 | NA | NA |
| Oct-90 | NA | NA |
| Nov-90 | NA | NA |
| Dec-90 | NA | NA |
| Jan-91 | 40.12 | 37.85 |
| Feb-91 | 38.43 | 36.26 |
| Mar-91 | 38.58 | 34.48 |
| Apr-91 | 38.61 | 34.05 |
| May-91 | 39.53 | 34.48 |
| Jun-91 | 39.04 | 33.23 |
| Jul-91 | 40.12 | 34.43 |
| Aug-91 | 40.16 | 34.58 |
| Sep-91 | 39.92 | 35.11 |
| Oct-91 | 40.44 | 35.81 |
| Nov-91 | 40.67 | 36.57 |
| Dec-91 | 39.88 | 36.31 |
| Jan-92 | 41.65 | 37.24 |
| Feb-92 | 41.27 | 36.8 |
| Mar-92 | 41.12 | 36.07 |
| Apr-92 | 41.85 | 36.82 |
| May-92 | 41.37 | 36.71 |
| Jun-92 | 41.89 | 37.72 |
| Jul-92 | 42.7 | 39.52 |
| Aug-92 | 41.88 | 38.7 |
| Sep-92 | 42.26 | 38.94 |
| Oct-92 | 42.39 | 38.3 |
| Nov-92 | 42.36 | 36.86 |
| Dec-92 | 42.79 | 37.36 |
| Jan-93 | 41.99 | 35.75 |
| Feb-93 | 42.31 | 35.93 |
| Mar-93 | 42.76 | 36.48 |
| Apr-93 | 42.73 | 37.16 |
| May-93 | 42.03 | 36.47 |
| Jun-93 | 42.82 | 36.79 |
| Jul-93 | 42.85 | 36.06 |
| Aug-93 | 43.01 | 36.17 |
| Sep-93 | 43.7 | 37.39 |
| Oct-93 | 43.8 | 37.09 |
| Nov-93 | 44.33 | 37.17 |
| Dec-93 | 44.93 | 37.59 |
| Jan-94 | 45.05 | 37.38 |
| Feb-94 | 45.48 | 37.89 |
| Mar-94 | 46.4 | 39.16 |
| Apr-94 | 46.44 | 39.46 |
| May-94 | 46.99 | 40.3 |
| Jun-94 | 47.57 | 41.51 |
| Jul-94 | 47.06 | 41.71 |
| Aug-94 | 48.94 | 43.57 |
| Sep-94 | 49.07 | 43.95 |
| Oct-94 | 49.32 | 44.66 |
| Nov-94 | 50.45 | 45.62 |
| Dec-94 | 51.6 | 46.48 |
| Jan-95 | 50.77 | 46.3 |
| Feb-95 | 50.88 | 46.93 |
| Mar-95 | 51.96 | 49.16 |
| Apr-95 | 51.34 | 49.51 |
| May-95 | 52.75 | 50.7 |
| Jun-95 | 53.11 | 51.29 |
| Jul-95 | 52.61 | 50.51 |
| Aug-95 | 53.5 | 50.57 |
| Sep-95 | 53.37 | 50.34 |
| Oct-95 | 53.71 | 51.02 |
| Nov-95 | 53.94 | 51.25 |
| Dec-95 | 54.07 | 51.02 |
| Jan-96 | 55.7 | 51.95 |
| Feb-96 | 55.71 | 51.93 |
| Mar-96 | 55.43 | 51.27 |
| Apr-96 | 56.3 | 52.13 |
| May-96 | 56.46 | 51.89 |
| Jun-96 | 55.91 | 51.19 |
| Jul-96 | 57.36 | 52.54 |
| Aug-96 | 57.08 | 52.42 |
| Sep-96 | 57.28 | 52.5 |
| Oct-96 | 58.26 | 53.67 |
| Nov-96 | 58.16 | 53.75 |
| Dec-96 | 58.66 | 53.8 |
| Jan-97 | 59.75 | 54.12 |
| Feb-97 | 59.46 | 52.59 |
| Mar-97 | 59.31 | 52.04 |
| Apr-97 | 61.61 | 53.79 |
| May-97 | 61.31 | 53.7 |
| Jun-97 | 61.49 | 53.58 |
| Jul-97 | 63.3 | 54.58 |
| Aug-97 | 62.27 | 52.96 |
| Sep-97 | 63.41 | 54.42 |
| Oct-97 | 64.02 | 55.26 |
| Nov-97 | 63.02 | 54.34 |
| Dec-97 | 64.36 | 54.76 |
| Jan-98 | 64.38 | 53.5 |
| Feb-98 | 64.54 | 53.51 |
| Mar-98 | 65.02 | 53.48 |
| Apr-98 | 65.49 | 53.91 |
| May-98 | 64.48 | 52.76 |
| Jun-98 | 65.12 | 52.91 |
| Jul-98 | 65.2 | 52.51 |
| Aug-98 | 64.76 | 51.85 |
| Sep-98 | 65.34 | 53.36 |
| Oct-98 | 65.35 | 54.1 |
| Nov-98 | 65.87 | 53.59 |
| Dec-98 | 65.84 | 53.51 |
| Jan-99 | 65.55 | 52.75 |
| Feb-99 | 66.82 | 52.99 |
| Mar-99 | 67.59 | 53.28 |
| Apr-99 | 67.38 | 52.7 |
| May-99 | 68.17 | 53.16 |
| Jun-99 | 69.68 | 54.58 |
| Jul-99 | 69.6 | 54.64 |
| Aug-99 | 69.69 | 55.62 |
| Sep-99 | 70.39 | 56.77 |
| Oct-99 | 70.94 | 57.98 |
| Nov-99 | 72.67 | 58.68 |
| Dec-99 | 73.29 | 59.58 |
| Jan-00 | 74.09 | 60.48 |
| Feb-00 | 75.38 | 61.08 |
| Mar-00 | 75.79 | 61.06 |
| Apr-00 | 66.66 | 53.4 |
| May-00 | 68.69 | 54.01 |
| Jun-00 | 67.46 | 54.62 |
| Jul-00 | 68.56 | 55.33 |
| Aug-00 | 69.62 | 55.9 |
| Sep-00 | 69.7 | 55.58 |
| Oct-00 | 70.66 | 56.09 |
| Nov-00 | 70.94 | 56.16 |
| Dec-00 | 70.8 | 56.66 |
| Jan-01 | 70.63 | 56.6 |
| Feb-01 | 69.31 | 55.16 |
| Mar-01 | 69.32 | 54.46 |
| Apr-01 | 68.77 | 53.47 |
| May-01 | 68.12 | 52.7 |
| Jun-01 | 68.04 | 52.2 |
| Jul-01 | 67.27 | 51.29 |
| Aug-01 | 67.05 | 51.89 |
| Sep-01 | 66.39 | 51.21 |
| Oct-01 | 67.36 | 51.09 |
| Nov-01 | 67.06 | 50.2 |
| Dec-01 | 65.72 | 49.22 |
| Jan-02 | 67.17 | 50.07 |
| Feb-02 | 68.41 | 50.71 |
| Mar-02 | 68.13 | 51.12 |
| Apr-02 | 69.73 | 52.86 |
| May-02 | 68.69 | 53.01 |
| Jun-02 | 70.19 | 54.69 |
| Jul-02 | 70.63 | 56.03 |
| Aug-02 | 70.64 | 55.81 |
| Sep-02 | 71.34 | 56.54 |
| Oct-02 | 71.04 | 46.3 |
| Nov-02 | 72.38 | 47.24 |
| Dec-02 | 71.86 | 47.61 |
| Jan-03 | 72.84 | 49.67 |
| Feb-03 | 72.38 | 49.86 |
| Mar-03 | 73.13 | 50.29 |
| Apr-03 | 73.11 | 49.45 |
| May-03 | 72.76 | 50.38 |
| Jun-03 | 72.91 | 50.58 |
| Jul-03 | 73.97 | 50.92 |
| Aug-03 | 72.52 | 49.54 |
| Sep-03 | 75.38 | 51.79 |
| Oct-03 | 76.37 | 53.73 |
| Nov-03 | 76.93 | 54.4 |
| Dec-03 | 78.64 | 57.01 |
| Jan-04 | 78.44 | 58.23 |
| Feb-04 | 79.68 | 59.45 |
| Mar-04 | 80.59 | 59.97 |
| Apr-04 | 81.32 | 60.34 |
| May-04 | 81.07 | 60.76 |
| Jun-04 | 83.14 | 62.59 |
| Jul-04 | 82.41 | 62.81 |
| Aug-04 | 81.77 | 62.55 |
| Sep-04 | 82.78 | 63.52 |
| Oct-04 | 83.51 | 65.51 |
| Nov-04 | 84.72 | 67.5 |
| Dec-04 | 85.45 | 68.61 |
| Jan-05 | 85.25 | 68.54 |
| Feb-05 | 84.84 | 68.3 |
| Mar-05 | 84.99 | 69.8 |
| Apr-05 | 87.16 | 71.2 |
| May-05 | 87.7 | 70.63 |
| Jun-05 | 87.16 | 70.16 |
| Jul-05 | 86.29 | 69.51 |
| Aug-05 | 88.03 | 72.17 |
| Sep-05 | 88.48 | 73.65 |
| Oct-05 | 89.16 | 73.49 |
| Nov-05 | 90.48 | 73.61 |
| Dec-05 | 92.18 | 76 |
| Jan-06 | 92.23 | 77.45 |
| Feb-06 | 92.85 | 77.67 |
| Mar-06 | 93.45 | 78.52 |
| Apr-06 | 93.89 | 79.92 |
| May-06 | 94.65 | 83.34 |
| Jun-06 | 94.7 | 82.51 |
| Jul-06 | 93.41 | 81.85 |
| Aug-06 | 95.14 | 84.65 |
| Sep-06 | 95.81 | 84.6 |
| Oct-06 | 95.7 | 82.98 |
| Nov-06 | 97.25 | 85.09 |
| Dec-06 | 97.9 | 88.09 |
| Jan-07 | 98.09 | 86.66 |
| Feb-07 | 99.03 | 87.9 |
| Mar-07 | 99.21 | 89.31 |
| Apr-07 | 99.1 | 90.45 |
| May-07 | 99.68 | 91.54 |
| Jun-07 | 100.01 | 92.14 |
| Jul-07 | 100.57 | 94.44 |
| Aug-07 | 101.03 | 94.67 |
| Sep-07 | 100.51 | 95.79 |
| Oct-07 | 101.87 | 99.25 |
| Nov-07 | 101.81 | 102.38 |
| Dec-07 | 101.31 | 102.23 |
| Jan-08 | 104.78 | 106.89 |
| Feb-08 | 104.12 | 107.79 |
| Mar-08 | 102.46 | 110.06 |
| Apr-08 | 103.75 | 112.86 |
| May-08 | 102.78 | 113.17 |
| Jun-08 | 102.21 | 114.56 |
| Jul-08 | 103.9 | 119.33 |
| Aug-08 | 102.57 | 114.65 |
| Sep-08 | 101.98 | 109.6 |
| Oct-08 | 101.67 | 102.16 |
| Nov-08 | 95.52 | 89.67 |
| Dec-08 | 90.57 | 83.82 |
| Jan-09 | 86.4 | 77.45 |
| Feb-09 | 85.11 | 74.87 |
| Mar-09 | 84.31 | 73.87 |
| Apr-09 | 85.27 | 75 |
| May-09 | 84.1 | 75.34 |
| Jun-09 | 86.05 | 79.68 |
| Jul-09 | 87.81 | 81.63 |
| Aug-09 | 87.61 | 82.87 |
| Sep-09 | 91.51 | 87.4 |
| Oct-09 | 92.18 | 88.94 |
| Nov-09 | 92.29 | 90.58 |
| Dec-09 | 95.59 | 93.56 |
| Jan-10 | 94.44 | 93.62 |
| Feb-10 | 95.52 | 93.18 |
| Mar-10 | 98.13 | 96.59 |
| Apr-10 | 97.6 | 97.11 |
| May-10 | 99.82 | 97.2 |
| Jun-10 | 101.39 | 98.35 |
| Jul-10 | 100.52 | 99.29 |
| Aug-10 | 101.3 | 101.21 |
| Sep-10 | 101.31 | 101.77 |
| Oct-10 | 102.57 | 105.95 |
| Nov-10 | 103.71 | 107.82 |
| Dec-10 | 103.68 | 108.46 |
| Jan-11 | 105.59 | 113.78 |
| Feb-11 | 104.01 | 114.59 |
| Mar-11 | 104.86 | 118.5 |
| Apr-11 | 103.72 | 119.92 |
| May-11 | 105.05 | 121.64 |
| Jun-11 | 104.22 | 120.99 |
| Jul-11 | 104.36 | 121.64 |
| Aug-11 | 106.25 | 124.59 |
| Sep-11 | 104.75 | 120.35 |
| Oct-11 | 105.14 | 120.82 |
| Nov-11 | 105.25 | 120.6 |
| Dec-11 | 104.93 | 119.38 |
| Jan-12 | 104.83 | 119.55 |
| Feb-12 | 104.97 | 121.86 |
| Mar-12 | 105.88 | 122.71 |
| Apr-12 | 104.67 | 120.75 |
| May-12 | 107.84 | 122.31 |
| Jun-12 | 106.59 | 118.6 |
| Jul-12 | 106.73 | 117.82 |
| Aug-12 | 106.75 | 119.24 |
| Sep-12 | 107.63 | 122.63 |
| Oct-12 | 106.83 | 121.03 |
| Nov-12 | 107.39 | 120.72 |
| Dec-12 | 107.14 | 121.33 |
| Jan-13 | 109.27 | 123.87 |
| Feb-13 | 107.59 | 122.82 |
| Mar-13 | 107.74 | 121.46 |
| Apr-13 | 109.23 | 122.12 |
| May-13 | 109.12 | 120.49 |
| Jun-13 | 107.27 | 119.28 |
| Jul-13 | 109.14 | 120.55 |
| Aug-13 | 108.46 | 120.82 |
| Sep-13 | 108.69 | 121.66 |
| Oct-13 | 109.73 | 122.99 |
| Nov-13 | 110.02 | 122.69 |
| Dec-13 | 109.68 | 123.3 |
| Jan-14 | 112.48 | 126.07 |
| Feb-14 | 110.94 | 124.77 |
| Mar-14 | 110.09 | 124.67 |
| Apr-14 | 111.06 | 125.31 |
| May-14 | 110.56 | 124.51 |
| Jun-14 | 110.57 | 124.03 |
| Jul-14 | 111.08 | 124.52 |
| Aug-14 | 111.29 | 123.62 |
| Sep-14 | 113.45 | 123.94 |
| Oct-14 | 112.83 | 121.09 |
| Nov-14 | 112.77 | 118.66 |
| Dec-14 | 114.42 | 117.12 |
| Jan-15 | 113.7 | 112.85 |
| Feb-15 | 113.22 | 111.7 |
| Mar-15 | 113.95 | 110.8 |
| Apr-15 | 112.92 | 109.6 |
| May-15 | 111.54 | 109.7 |
| Jun-15 | 113.45 | 111.27 |
| Jul-15 | 113.76 | 109.72 |
| Aug-15 | 113.82 | 108.33 |
| Sep-15 | 113.38 | 106.41 |
| Oct-15 | 114.46 | 107.28 |
| Nov-15 | 114.62 | 105.13 |
| Dec-15 | 114.99 | 104.43 |
| Jan-16 | 113.69 | 101.67 |
| Feb-16 | 114.65 | 103.12 |
| Mar-16 | 113.16 | 102.08 |
| Apr-16 | 111.96 | 103.35 |
| May-16 | 112.76 | 104.1 |
| Jun-16 | 113.75 | 105.7 |
| Jul-16 | 112.13 | 102.86 |
| Aug-16 | 114.14 | 105.83 |
| Sep-16 | NA | NA |
| Oct-16 | NA | NA |
| Nov-16 | NA | NA |
| Dec-16 | NA | NA |
*Level of real imports. Grey bars represent FRB-defined global recessions: 55% of world GDP in recession. Return to text.
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Figure 2. World Trade as a Share of GDP
2010 = 100 (Ratio scale)
| Dates | Real | Nominal |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 15.18 | 21.05 |
| 1981 | 15.05 | 20.61 |
| 1982 | 14.66 | 19.79 |
| 1983 | 14.58 | 18.9 |
| 1984 | 15.13 | 19.22 |
| 1985 | 15.09 | 18.61 |
| 1986 | 15.36 | 17.45 |
| 1987 | 15.81 | 17.97 |
| 1988 | 16.3 | 18.45 |
| 1989 | 17.03 | 19.15 |
| 1990 | 17.42 | 19.43 |
| 1991 | 17.19 | 18.86 |
| 1992 | 17.3 | 19.62 |
| 1993 | 17.27 | 18.57 |
| 1994 | 18.29 | 19.25 |
| 1995 | 19.46 | 20.61 |
| 1996 | 20.17 | 21.15 |
| 1997 | 21.32 | 21.88 |
| 1998 | 21.91 | 21.78 |
| 1999 | 22.31 | 21.92 |
| 2000 | 24.06 | 23.77 |
| 2001 | 23.66 | 23.27 |
| 2002 | 23.78 | 23.27 |
| 2003 | 24.34 | 24.06 |
| 2004 | 25.8 | 25.84 |
| 2005 | 26.8 | 27.08 |
| 2006 | 27.96 | 28.59 |
| 2007 | 28.82 | 29.39 |
| 2008 | 29.11 | 30.69 |
| 2009 | 26.06 | 25.92 |
| 2010 | 28.07 | 28.07 |
| 2011 | 29.07 | 30.03 |
| 2012 | 29.04 | 29.78 |
| 2013 | 29.02 | 29.77 |
| 2014 | 29.09 | 29.56 |
| 2015 | 29.19 | 28.12 |
*Level of real imports. Grey bars represent FRB-defined global recessions: 55% of world GDP in recession.
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Figure 3. Real Import Growth
Percent, a.r.
| Date Range | US | AFE | EME |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-2007 | 3.98 | 2.91 | 10.33 |
| 2011-2014 | 4.09 | 1.06 | 3.88 |
| 2015 | 0.3 | 0.96 | -0.89 |
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Figure 4. Average Annual Real Import Growth
Percent
| Country | 2000-2007 | 2011-2015 |
|---|---|---|
| AR | 15.49 | 3.05 |
| AL | 8.85 | 3 |
| BZ | 6.94 | 0.4 |
| CA | 4.56 | 2.54 |
| CH | 14.87 | 5.09 |
| FR | 5.62 | 4.17 |
| GE | 5.75 | 3.92 |
| IN | 14.98 | 3.63 |
| ID | 10.82 | 4.25 |
| IT | 4.43 | -0.15 |
| JA | 4.36 | 4.36 |
| MX | 7.4 | 5.42 |
| SA | 15.7 | 4.13 |
| SF | 9.13 | 5.19 |
| KO | 10.99 | 4.63 |
| SP | 7.04 | 1.31 |
| TK | 11.49 | 3.84 |
| UK | 5.58 | 3.1 |
| US | 5.27 | 3.81 |
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 5. Chinese Real Trade
Percent of GDP
| Dates | Exports Actual | Export Counterfactual | Import Actual | Imports Counterfactual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 31.25 | ND | 26.34 | ND |
| 2008 | 28.1 | ND | 22.66 | ND |
| 2009 | 22.59 | ND | 21.04 | ND |
| 2010 | 26 | ND | 23.01 | ND |
| 2011 | 24.8 | 24.8 | 21.99 | 21.99 |
| 2012 | 23.76 | 24.8 | 20.91 | 21.99 |
| 2013 | 23.32 | 24.8 | 20.71 | 21.99 |
| 2014 | 23.28 | 24.8 | 20.09 | 21.99 |
| 2015 | 21.77 | 24.8 | 18.59 | 21.99 |
Source: China National Accounts.
Figure 6. World Real Trade*
Percent of world GDP
| Dates | World Trade Actual | World Trade Counterfactual** |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 26.8 | ND |
| 2006 | 27.96 | ND |
| 2007 | 28.82 | ND |
| 2008 | 29.11 | ND |
| 2009 | 26.06 | ND |
| 2010 | 28.07 | ND |
| 2011 | 29.07 | 29.07 |
| 2012 | 29.04 | 29.26 |
| 2013 | 29.02 | 29.32 |
| 2014 | 29.09 | 29.48 |
| 2015 | 29.19 | 29.95 |
* World imports. Return to text
** Keeping China's exports and imports constant as a share of GDP. Return to table.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2016).
Figure 7. Real Import Growth
4-quarter percent change
| Dates | Data Actual | GDP Model | Component Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996:Q1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 1996:Q2 | ND | ND | ND |
| 1996:Q3 | ND | ND | ND |
| 1996:Q4 | ND | ND | ND |
| 1997:Q1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 1997:Q2 | 8.74 | 6.9 | 7.75 |
| 1997:Q3 | 7.96 | 7.35 | 6.87 |
| 1997:Q4 | 5.16 | 6.66 | 5.24 |
| 1998:Q1 | 4.18 | 4.55 | 3.4 |
| 1998:Q2 | 0.42 | 2.94 | 2.15 |
| 1998:Q3 | -1.36 | 1.41 | 1.28 |
| 1998:Q4 | -4.46 | 0.09 | -0.23 |
| 1999:Q1 | -3.63 | 2.78 | 2.64 |
| 1999:Q2 | 0.06 | 4.91 | 4.63 |
| 1999:Q3 | 2.91 | 6.26 | 5.75 |
| 1999:Q4 | 8.71 | 9.02 | 8.64 |
| 2000:Q1 | 10.77 | 10.31 | 9.24 |
| 2000:Q2 | 11.68 | 10.71 | 9.4 |
| 2000:Q3 | 12.87 | 10.24 | 9.08 |
| 2000:Q4 | 12.97 | 8.98 | 8.14 |
| 2001:Q1 | 8.95 | 6.57 | 6.16 |
| 2001:Q2 | 4.39 | 5.06 | 4.74 |
| 2001:Q3 | -1.64 | 3.17 | 3.12 |
| 2001:Q4 | -6.19 | 2.33 | 1.77 |
| 2002:Q1 | -3.97 | 2.35 | 1.72 |
| 2002:Q2 | -0.88 | 2.97 | 1.71 |
| 2002:Q3 | 2.75 | 4.15 | 2.6 |
| 2002:Q4 | 5.41 | 3.97 | 3.67 |
| 2003:Q1 | 5.24 | 2.8 | 2.92 |
| 2003:Q2 | 1.97 | 2.37 | 2.76 |
| 2003:Q3 | 2.22 | 2.86 | 3.24 |
| 2003:Q4 | 4.64 | 4.24 | 4.23 |
| 2004:Q1 | 5.45 | 6.22 | 5.53 |
| 2004:Q2 | 9.36 | 6.81 | 6.44 |
| 2004:Q3 | 9.66 | 6.42 | 6.43 |
| 2004:Q4 | 8.75 | 5.82 | 5.89 |
| 2005:Q1 | 6.86 | 5.18 | 5.83 |
| 2005:Q2 | 6.74 | 5.85 | 6.86 |
| 2005:Q3 | 6.78 | 6.7 | 7.53 |
| 2005:Q4 | 6.28 | 7.07 | 7.38 |
| 2006:Q1 | 9.52 | 8.17 | 8.22 |
| 2006:Q2 | 9.32 | 7.63 | 7.63 |
| 2006:Q3 | 7.83 | 7.09 | 6.84 |
| 2006:Q4 | 7.41 | 7.58 | 8.34 |
| 2007:Q1 | 6.18 | 7.33 | 7.88 |
| 2007:Q2 | 5.48 | 7.47 | 7.56 |
| 2007:Q3 | 7.19 | 7.32 | 7.24 |
| 2007:Q4 | 6.65 | 6.81 | 6.33 |
| 2008:Q1 | 5.77 | 6.14 | 6.02 |
| 2008:Q2 | 4.69 | 4.17 | 4.28 |
| 2008:Q3 | 2.86 | 2.65 | 3.45 |
| 2008:Q4 | -3.14 | -3.55 | -1.64 |
| 2009:Q1 | -16.48 | -9.78 | -7.18 |
| 2009:Q2 | -17.48 | -8.82 | -7.02 |
| 2009:Q3 | -14.12 | -7.08 | -5.65 |
| 2009:Q4 | -6.64 | -0.58 | -0.7 |
| 2010:1 | 10.67 | 7.35 | 5.3 |
| 2010:2 | 15.75 | 9.23 | 7.84 |
| 2010:3 | 13.62 | 9.22 | 7.66 |
| 2010:4 | 11.63 | 8.44 | 6.98 |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.28 | 7.54 | 6.97 |
| 2011:Q2 | 6.65 | 5.44 | 5.56 |
| 2011:Q3 | 5.85 | 5.31 | 5.42 |
| 2011:Q4 | 4.61 | 3.92 | 5.2 |
| 2012:Q1 | 3.34 | 3.56 | 4.82 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.93 | 3.04 | 4.02 |
| 2012:Q3 | 1.1 | 2.39 | 3.09 |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.62 | 2.38 | 2.71 |
| 2013:Q1 | 1.19 | 1.91 | 1.73 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.13 | 2.76 | 2.96 |
| 2013:Q3 | 2.95 | 2.89 | 3.86 |
| 2013:Q4 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 4.36 |
| 2014:Q1 | 4.61 | 4.28 | 5.51 |
| 2014:Q2 | 2.63 | 3.79 | 3.87 |
| 2014:Q3 | 3.38 | 3.72 | 3.52 |
| 2014:Q4 | 3.14 | 3.54 | 3.33 |
| 2015:Q1 | 3.04 | 3.8 | 3.66 |
| 2015:Q2 | 1.83 | 3.88 | 3.97 |
| 2015:Q3 | 0.86 | 3.3 | 3.24 |
| 2015:Q4 | 0.5 | 3.18 | 3.16 |
| 2016:Q1 | -1.19 | 2.95 | 2.26 |
| 2016:Q2 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2016:Q3 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2016:Q4 | ND | ND | ND |
Countries included: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Euro Area, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
Source: FRB staff calculations.
Figure 8. Tariffs
Average Applied MFN Tariff
| Dates | U.S. | China | E.U. | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | 5.6 | 39.1 | 7 | 4.4 |
| 2003 | 3.7 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| 2013 | 3.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 3 |
Source: Bown and Crowley (2016).
Figure 9. Trade
Share of GDP
| Dates | China | U.S. | Germany | Japan | France |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 0.4 | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| 2005 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.68 | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| 2015 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 0.79 | 0.31 | 0.44 |
Souce: Haver Analytics.
Figure 10. Foreign Value Added in World Exports
Ratio
| Dates | GVC New Aug |
|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.1847 |
| 1996 | 0.1859 |
| 1997 | 0.1865 |
| 1998 | 0.1905 |
| 1999 | 0.1964 |
| 2000 | 0.2144 |
| 2001 | 0.2118 |
| 2002 | 0.2124 |
| 2003 | 0.2168 |
| 2004 | 0.2266 |
| 2005 | 0.2308 |
| 2006 | 0.2398 |
| 2007 | 0.2439 |
| 2008 | 0.2484 |
| 2009 | 0.2272 |
| 2010 | 0.2422 |
| 2011 | 0.2524 |
| 2012 | 0.2489 |
| 2013 | 0.2489 |
| 2014 | 0.2473 |
| 2015 | NA |
Source: Authors' estimates based on data from World Input-Output Database, 2016 and for pre-2000, data from World Input-Output Database, 2013. Coverage of countries and industries differs slightly for pre-2000 period.
Figure 11. China's Processing Exports and Imports
Percent of GDP
| Dates | Exports | Imports |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 6.23 | 4.94 |
| 1996 | 6.46 | 4.77 |
| 1997 | 6.97 | 4.91 |
| 1998 | 6.75 | 4.44 |
| 1999 | 6.65 | 4.41 |
| 2000 | 7.61 | 5.12 |
| 2001 | 7.53 | 4.8 |
| 2002 | 8.42 | 5.72 |
| 2003 | 10.29 | 6.93 |
| 2004 | 12.68 | 8.57 |
| 2005 | 14.32 | 9.42 |
| 2006 | 15.14 | 9.54 |
| 2007 | 15.3 | 9.14 |
| 2008 | 13.95 | 7.82 |
| 2009 | 10.91 | 5.99 |
| 2010 | 12.33 | 6.95 |
| 2011 | 12.13 | 6.82 |
| 2012 | 11.35 | 6.33 |
| 2013 | 10.25 | 5.92 |
| 2014 | 9.83 | 5.85 |
| 2015 | 8.48 | 4.75 |
Source: China National Accounts.
Figure 12. China's Imports of Parts and Components
Percent of manufactured goods exports
| Dates | Imports Parts |
|---|---|
| 1998 | 24.59 |
| 1999 | 28.74 |
| 2000 | 31.45 |
| 2001 | 32.69 |
| 2002 | 34.5 |
| 2003 | 36.51 |
| 2004 | 37.02 |
| 2005 | 34.95 |
| 2006 | 34.23 |
| 2007 | 31.73 |
| 2008 | 28.98 |
| 2009 | 30.29 |
| 2010 | 30.78 |
| 2011 | 28.97 |
| 2012 | 27.99 |
| 2013 | 29.18 |
| 2014 | 27.78 |
| 2015 | 28.25 |
Source: Comtrade.
Figure 13. Growth by Sector
Percent change from previous year
| Dates | Mining Revenue* |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 36.47 |
| 2006 | 32.03 |
| 2007 | 18.77 |
| 2008 | 36.25 |
| 2009 | -13.55 |
| 2010 | 42.01 |
| 2011 | 25.75 |
| 2012 | 2.09 |
| 2013 | 7.48 |
| 2014 | -0.62 |
| 2015 | -17.51 |
| Dates | Services Production | Manufacturing Production |
|---|---|---|
| 2005:Q1 | 11.98 | 11.06 |
| 2005:Q2 | 11.21 | 11.3 |
| 2005:Q3 | 12.52 | 11.73 |
| 2005:Q4 | 13.29 | 13.96 |
| 2006:Q1 | 13.56 | 13.26 |
| 2006:Q2 | 13.82 | 14.29 |
| 2006:Q3 | 13.9 | 13.48 |
| 2006:Q4 | 14.9 | 12.87 |
| 2007:Q1 | 14.88 | 14.94 |
| 2007:Q2 | 16.06 | 15.53 |
| 2007:Q3 | 16.46 | 15.13 |
| 2007:Q4 | 16.57 | 14.62 |
| 2008:Q1 | 12.53 | 12.84 |
| 2008:Q2 | 11.57 | 11.35 |
| 2008:Q3 | 10.29 | 9.41 |
| 2008:Q4 | 7.81 | 6.56 |
| 2009:Q1 | 8.13 | 5.83 |
| 2009:Q2 | 8.99 | 8.22 |
| 2009:Q3 | 10.47 | 11.71 |
| 2009:Q4 | 10.82 | 14.59 |
| 2010:1 | 10.72 | 15.32 |
| 2010:2 | 9.61 | 12.94 |
| 2010:3 | 9.07 | 11.64 |
| 2010:4 | 9.47 | 11.39 |
| 2011:Q1 | 10.34 | 11.17 |
| 2011:Q2 | 10.18 | 11.22 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.11 | 10.85 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.41 | 9.66 |
| 2012:Q1 | 7.62 | 9.38 |
| 2012:Q2 | 7.76 | 8.24 |
| 2012:Q3 | 8.07 | 7.8 |
| 2012:Q4 | 8.58 | 8.26 |
| 2013:Q1 | 8.63 | 7.8 |
| 2013:Q2 | 8.3 | 7.78 |
| 2013:Q3 | 8.41 | 8.32 |
| 2013:Q4 | 8 | 7.92 |
| 2014:Q1 | 7.76 | 7.66 |
| 2014:Q2 | 7.6 | 7.9 |
| 2014:Q3 | 7.46 | 7.3 |
| 2014:Q4 | 8.33 | 6.89 |
| 2015:Q1 | 8.08 | 6.38 |
| 2015:Q2 | 8.61 | 6.13 |
| 2015:Q3 | 8.58 | 5.78 |
| 2015:Q4 | 8.17 | 6.16 |
* Includes petroleum & natural gas, ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and non-metal minerals. Return to text
Source: Haver Analytics.