What's Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. Imports?, Accessible Data
PrintAccessible version of figures
Chart 1. Imports as Share of GDP
Ratio of Chained 2009 dollars
| Period | Ratio of Imports of Goods to GDP | Ratio of Imports of Non-Oil Goods to GDP | Recession |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005:Q1 | 0.127 | 0.105 | No |
| 2005:Q2 | 0.127 | 0.106 | No |
| 2005:Q3 | 0.127 | 0.105 | No |
| 2005:Q4 | 0.130 | 0.108 | No |
| 2006:Q1 | 0.131 | 0.110 | No |
| 2006:Q2 | 0.132 | 0.111 | No |
| 2006:Q3 | 0.133 | 0.111 | No |
| 2006:Q4 | 0.131 | 0.112 | No |
| 2007:Q1 | 0.133 | 0.114 | No |
| 2007:Q2 | 0.133 | 0.113 | No |
| 2007:Q3 | 0.132 | 0.112 | No |
| 2007:Q4 | 0.129 | 0.110 | Yes |
| 2008:Q1 | 0.131 | 0.112 | Yes |
| 2008:Q2 | 0.129 | 0.111 | Yes |
| 2008:Q3 | 0.127 | 0.108 | Yes |
| 2008:Q4 | 0.122 | 0.101 | Yes |
| 2009:Q1 | 0.111 | 0.090 | Yes |
| 2009:Q2 | 0.106 | 0.087 | Yes |
| 2009:Q3 | 0.110 | 0.092 | No |
| 2009:Q4 | 0.115 | 0.097 | No |
| 2010:Q1 | 0.118 | 0.100 | No |
| 2010:Q2 | 0.123 | 0.105 | No |
| 2010:Q3 | 0.127 | 0.108 | No |
| 2010:Q4 | 0.127 | 0.110 | No |
| 2011:Q1 | 0.129 | 0.111 | No |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.128 | 0.111 | No |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.129 | 0.113 | No |
| 2011:Q4 | 0.129 | 0.113 | No |
| 2012:Q1 | 0.129 | 0.115 | No |
| 2012:Q2 | 0.129 | 0.115 | No |
| 2012:Q3 | 0.129 | 0.115 | No |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.127 | 0.114 | No |
| 2013:Q1 | 0.127 | 0.115 | No |
| 2013:Q2 | 0.129 | 0.117 | No |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.128 | 0.117 | No |
| 2013:Q4 | 0.127 | 0.117 | No |
| 2014:Q1 | 0.130 | 0.119 | No |
| 2014:Q2 | 0.132 | 0.122 | No |
| 2014:Q3 | 0.130 | 0.121 | No |
| 2014:Q4 | 0.132 | 0.123 | No |
| 2015:Q1 | 0.134 | 0.125 | No |
| 2015:Q2 | 0.134 | 0.125 | No |
| 2015:Q3 | 0.134 | 0.124 | No |
| 2015:Q4 | 0.133 | 0.124 | No |
| 2016:Q1 | 0.133 | 0.123 | No |
| 2016:Q2 | 0.132 | 0.122 | No |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via Haver Analytics
Note: The shaded area indicates a period designated a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research
Chart 2. Contribution to Real Non-Oil Goods Import Growth
Percentage points
| Period | Capital Goods | Auto | Consumer Goods | Other | Total Non-Oil Goods |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015:Q2 | 0.486 | 3.080 | 0.831 | -1.035 | 3.4 |
| 2015:Q3 | -1.585 | 0.349 | 0.640 | -0.247 | -0.8 |
| 2015:Q4 | 0.134 | 0.390 | -0.457 | 0.873 | 0.9 |
| 2016:Q1 | -2.593 | 0.090 | -1.566 | 1.668 | -2.4 |
| 2016:Q2 | 2.441 | -1.417 | -1.169 | -0.124 | -0.3 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; author's calculations
Chart 3. Real Capital Goods
Four-quarter Percentage Change
| Period | Imports of Capital Goods | Equipment Investment | Recession |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000:Q1 | 19.537 | 11.173 | No |
| 2000:Q2 | 21.588 | 11.322 | No |
| 2000:Q3 | 21.990 | 8.047 | No |
| 2000:Q4 | 17.535 | 8.546 | No |
| 2001:Q1 | 8.265 | 3.061 | Yes |
| 2001:Q2 | -10.637 | -4.738 | Yes |
| 2001:Q3 | -19.746 | -7.529 | Yes |
| 2001:Q4 | -20.899 | -7.725 | Yes |
| 2002:Q1 | -14.447 | -8.594 | No |
| 2002:Q2 | -1.249 | -5.718 | No |
| 2002:Q3 | 4.933 | -2.984 | No |
| 2002:Q4 | 7.086 | -4.104 | No |
| 2003:Q1 | 4.673 | -2.401 | No |
| 2003:Q2 | 3.802 | 2.027 | No |
| 2003:Q3 | 4.337 | 4.779 | No |
| 2003:Q4 | 10.535 | 8.489 | No |
| 2004:Q1 | 14.689 | 6.669 | No |
| 2004:Q2 | 18.254 | 7.238 | No |
| 2004:Q3 | 21.164 | 7.768 | No |
| 2004:Q4 | 17.115 | 8.955 | No |
| 2005:Q1 | 13.245 | 11.737 | No |
| 2005:Q2 | 12.493 | 9.882 | No |
| 2005:Q3 | 9.854 | 9.836 | No |
| 2005:Q4 | 10.101 | 7.297 | No |
| 2006:Q1 | 13.461 | 11.931 | No |
| 2006:Q2 | 10.577 | 9.932 | No |
| 2006:Q3 | 12.064 | 6.602 | No |
| 2006:Q4 | 9.401 | 6.294 | No |
| 2007:Q1 | 7.849 | 2.261 | No |
| 2007:Q2 | 6.995 | 3.068 | No |
| 2007:Q3 | 6.250 | 3.334 | No |
| 2007:Q4 | 5.901 | 3.978 | Yes |
| 2008:Q1 | 5.832 | 1.496 | Yes |
| 2008:Q2 | 5.721 | -2.188 | Yes |
| 2008:Q3 | 1.790 | -7.694 | Yes |
| 2008:Q4 | -6.578 | -19.042 | Yes |
| 2009:Q1 | -19.448 | -27.294 | Yes |
| 2009:Q2 | -24.307 | -27.951 | Yes |
| 2009:Q3 | -18.373 | -23.059 | No |
| 2009:Q4 | -4.278 | -11.520 | No |
| 2010:Q1 | 11.508 | 6.692 | No |
| 2010:Q2 | 26.448 | 16.394 | No |
| 2010:Q3 | 26.640 | 19.741 | No |
| 2010:Q4 | 20.968 | 20.857 | No |
| 2011:Q1 | 19.768 | 16.190 | No |
| 2011:Q2 | 14.387 | 11.448 | No |
| 2011:Q3 | 11.250 | 13.682 | No |
| 2011:Q4 | 10.441 | 13.065 | No |
| 2012:Q1 | 11.798 | 14.036 | No |
| 2012:Q2 | 9.430 | 15.217 | No |
| 2012:Q3 | 5.394 | 7.462 | No |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.441 | 6.946 | No |
| 2013:Q1 | 1.451 | 5.228 | No |
| 2013:Q2 | 0.773 | 3.768 | No |
| 2013:Q3 | 4.140 | 3.268 | No |
| 2013:Q4 | 6.495 | 6.078 | No |
| 2014:Q1 | 5.537 | 3.967 | No |
| 2014:Q2 | 9.274 | 4.882 | No |
| 2014:Q3 | 8.841 | 10.122 | No |
| 2014:Q4 | 7.899 | 2.902 | No |
| 2015:Q1 | 7.385 | 5.134 | No |
| 2015:Q2 | 3.888 | 3.399 | No |
| 2015:Q3 | 0.818 | 2.004 | No |
| 2015:Q4 | -0.118 | 3.722 | No |
| 2016:Q1 | -3.023 | -1.059 | No |
| 2016:Q2 | -0.770 | -1.908 | No |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: The shaded areas indicate periods designated recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research
Chart 4. U.S. Real Non-Oil Goods Imports
Four-quarter Percentage Change
| Period | Actual Non-Oil Import Growth | Baseline Model | Adjusted Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015:Q1 | 8.448 | 6.705 | 5.337 |
| 2015:Q2 | 5.235 | 7.303 | 5.690 |
| 2015:Q3 | 5.163 | 6.421 | 3.553 |
| 2015:Q4 | 2.687 | 5.003 | 2.793 |
| 2016:Q1 | 0.227 | 3.423 | 0.120 |
| 2016:Q2 | -0.701 | 2.213 | -1.229 |
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Trade Model; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via Haver Analytics