Summary of Economic Projections
Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections

October 30-31, 2007 Material -- Accessible Version

SEP: Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections (PDF)

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Table 1
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents ¹

	2007	2008	2009	2010
Central Tendencies
Real GDP Growth	2.4 to 2.5	1.8 to 2.5	2.3 to 2.7	2.5 to 2.6
June projections	2-1/4 to 2-1/2	2-1/2 to 2-3/4
Unemployment Rate	4.7 to 4.8	4.8 to 4.9	4.8 to 4.9	4.7 to 4.9
June projections	4-1/2 to 4-3/4	about 4-3/4
PCE Inflation	2.9 to 3.0	1.8 to 2.1	1.7 to 2.0	1.6 to 1.9

Core PCE Inflation	1.8 to 1.9	1.7 to 1.9	1.7 to 1.9	1.6 to 1.9
June projections	2 to 2-1/4	1-3/4 to 2
Ranges
Real GDP Growth	2.2 to 2.7	1.6 to 2.6	2.0 to 2.8	2.2 to 2.7
June projections	2 to 2-3/4	2-1/2 to 3
Unemployment Rate	4.7 to 4.8	4.6 to 5.0	4.6 to 5.0	4.6 to 5.0
June projections	4-1/2 to 4-3/4	4-1/2 to 5
PCE Inflation	2.7 to 3.2	1.7 to 2.3	1.5 to 2.2	1.5 to 2.0

Core PCE Inflation	1.8 to 2.1	1.7 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0
June projections	2 to 2-1/4	1-3/4 to 2

1. Projections of real GDP growth, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth rates, i.e. percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures and the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, respectively. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to text

Table 1a
Implied Economic Projections for the second half of 2007 ¹

Central Tendencies and Ranges*
	Central Tendency	Range
Real GDP Growth	2.6 to 2.8 (2.4 to 3.0)	2.2 to 3.2 (2.0 to 3.4)
Unemployment Rate (%, Q4)	4.7 to 4.8 (4.6 to 4.7)	4.7 to 4.8 (4.6 to 4.8)
Total PCE Inflation	1.9 to 2.1	1.5 to 2.5
Core PCE inflation	1.7 to 1.9 (2.1 to 2.5)	1.7 to 2.3 (1.9 to 2.5)

* June economic projections for the second half of 2007 are shown in parentheses. These are computed from the projections for 2007 submitted ahead of the June FOMC meeting assuming that growth and inflation in the first half of 2007 were as predicted in the June Greenbook. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. The unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to table

Participants' Projections
Projection	Real GDP Growth	Unemployment Rate (%, Q4)	Total PCE Inflation	Core PCE Inflation
1	2.6	4.7	2.1	1.7
2	2.8	4.7	2.1	1.9
3	2.6	4.7	1.9	1.7
4	2.4	4.8	1.5	1.9
5	2.8	4.7	1.9	1.9
6	2.6	4.8	2.3	1.9
7	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.9
8	2.8	4.8	1.7	1.7
9	2.6	4.7	1.5	1.7
10	2.6	4.7	2.1	2.3
11	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.7
12	2.2	4.8	1.9	2.3
13	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.9
14	3.2	4.7	2.5	1.9
15	2.6	4.8	2.3	1.9
16	2.6	4.7	2.1	1.7
17	2.4	4.8	1.9	1.7

1. Projections for the second half of 2007 implied by participants' October projections for 2007 and for the first half of 2007. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. The unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to text

Table 2
October Economic Projections

Respondent	Year	GDP Growth	Unemployment Rate	Total PCE Inflation	Core PCE Inflation

1	2007	2.4	4.7	3.0	1.8
2	2007	2.5	4.7	3.0	1.9
3	2007	2.4	4.7	2.9	1.8
4	2007	2.3	4.8	2.7	1.9
5	2007	2.5	4.7	2.9	1.9
6	2007	2.4	4.8	3.1	1.9
7	2007	2.4	4.8	3.0	1.9
8	2007	2.5	4.8	2.8	1.8
9	2007	2.4	4.7	2.7	1.8
10	2007	2.4	4.7	3.0	2.1
11	2007	2.4	4.8	3.0	1.8
12	2007	2.2	4.8	2.9	2.1
13	2007	2.4	4.8	3.0	1.9
14	2007	2.7	4.7	3.2	1.9
15	2007	2.4	4.8	3.1	1.9
16	2007	2.4	4.7	3.0	1.8
17	2007	2.3	4.8	2.9	1.8

1	2008	1.7	4.8	1.8	1.9
2	2008	2.2	4.9	1.8	1.8
3	2008	2.6	4.6	1.9	1.7
4	2008	2.5	5.0	1.7	1.7
5	2008	1.6	4.9	2.0	1.9
6	2008	2.2	4.8	2.3	1.8
7	2008	2.1	4.9	1.8	1.8
8	2008	2.5	4.8	1.7	1.7
9	2008	2.4	4.9	1.7	1.7
10	2008	2.2	4.8	2.0	2.0
11	2008	1.6	5.0	1.8	1.8
12	2008	2.6	4.9	2.0	1.9
13	2008	2.1	4.9	2.1	2.0
14	2008	2.3	4.8	2.1	2.0
15	2008	2.1	5.0	2.1	1.9
16	2008	1.8	4.8	2.2	1.9
17	2008	2.5	4.9	1.9	1.8

1	2009	2.2	4.8	1.9	2.0
2	2009	2.5	4.9	1.8	1.8
3	2009	2.7	4.6	1.7	1.7
4	2009	2.5	5.0	1.5	1.5
5	2009	2.3	4.9	1.9	1.9
6	2009	2.5	4.7	2.2	1.7
7	2009	2.4	4.9	1.7	1.7
8	2009	2.8	4.8	1.7	1.7
9	2009	2.7	5.0	1.5	1.5
10	2009	2.4	4.8	1.8	1.9
11	2009	2.5	4.8	1.8	1.8
12	2009	2.7	5.0	1.7	1.7
13	2009	2.4	4.9	2.0	1.9
14	2009	2.0	4.9	2.1	2.0
15	2009	2.4	4.9	2.0	1.9
16	2009	2.3	4.8	1.8	1.8
17	2009	2.6	4.9	1.8	1.8

1	2010	2.2	4.8	2.0	2.0
2	2010	2.5	4.9	1.8	1.8
3	2010	2.6	4.6	1.6	1.6
4	2010	2.5	5.0	1.5	1.5
5	2010	2.5	4.8	1.9	1.9
6	2010	2.7	4.6	2.0	1.7
7	2010	2.5	4.8	1.7	1.7
8	2010	2.6	4.8	1.7	1.7
9	2010	2.7	5.0	1.5	1.5
10	2010	2.5	4.7	1.9	1.9
11	2010	2.4	4.8	1.7	1.7
12	2010	2.7	5.0	1.5	1.5
13	2010	2.6	4.9	1.9	1.8
14	2010	2.5	4.7	1.9	1.9
15	2010	2.5	4.9	1.9	1.9
16	2010	2.3	4.8	1.8	1.8
17	2010	2.5	4.9	1.8	1.8

Chart 1
Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2007 through 2010. Actual data for years 2002 through 2006. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP Growth
Percent
	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	1.9	3.7	3.1	2.9	2.6	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.7	2.6	2.8	2.7
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.6
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.4	1.8	2.3	2.5
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.2	1.6	2.0	2.2

Unemployment Rate
Percent
	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	5.9	5.8	5.4	5.0	4.5	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	4.8	5.0	5.0	5.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	4.8	4.9	4.9	4.9
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	4.7	4.8	4.8	4.7
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	4.7	4.6	4.6	4.6

PCE Inflation
Percent
	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	1.8	1.9	3.1	3.2	1.9	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	3.2	2.3	2.2	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	3.0	2.1	2.0	1.9
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.9	1.8	1.7	1.6
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.7	1.7	1.5	1.5

Core PCE Inflation
Percent
	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Actual	1.6	1.4	2.2	2.2	2.3	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.5

Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
	Lower (C)	Broadly similar (B)	Higher (A)
Number of participants	0	4	13

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
	Weighted to downside (C)	Broadly balanced (B)	Weighted to upside (A)
Number of participants	13	4	0

Individual Responses
Respondent	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
2(a)	A	A	A	B	A	A	B	A	B	A	A	B	A	A	A	A	A
2(b)	C	B	C	B	C	C	C	C	C	C	C	B	C	B	C	C	C

Uncertainty and Risks - Unemployment Rate

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
	Lower (C)	Broadly similar (B)	Higher (A)
Number of participants	0	8	9

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
	Weighted to downside (C)	Broadly balanced (B)	Weighted to upside (A)
Number of participants	0	5	12

Individual Responses
Respondent	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
2(a)	A	B	A	B	B	A	B	A	B	A	A	B	A	B	B	A	A
2(b)	A	B	A	B	B	A	A	A	A	A	A	B	A	B	A	A	A

Uncertainty and Risks - Total PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
	Lower (C)	Broadly similar (B)	Higher (A)
Number of participants	1	9	7

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
	Weighted to downside (C)	Broadly balanced (B)	Weighted to upside (A)
Number of participants	0	9	8

Individual Responses
Respondent	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
2(a)	B	B	A	B	B	A	B	B	C	B	A	B	A	A	B	A	A
2(b)	B	B	B	B	B	A	A	B	B	B	A	A	A	B	A	A	A

Uncertainty and Risks - Core PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
	Lower (C)	Broadly similar (B)	Higher (A)
Number of participants	1	14	2

2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
	Weighted to downside (C)	Broadly balanced (B)	Weighted to upside (A)
Number of participants	0	10	7

Individual Responses
Respondent	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
2(a)	B	B	A	B	B	B	B	B	C	B	B	B	B	B	B	B	A
2(b)	B	B	B	B	B	B	A	B	B	B	A	A	A	B	A	A	A

Chart 2(a)
Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.

Real GDP Projections
Number of Participants (except as noted)
Projections	1.6-1.7	1.8-1.9	2.0-2.1	2.2-2.3	2.4-2.5	2.6-2.7	2.8-2.9	3.0-3.1
2007	(June and October Greenbook: 2.2-2.3 percent)
October	0	0	0	3	13	1	0	0
June	0	0	3	9	4	1	0	0
2008	(June Greenbook: 2.4-2.5 percent; October Greenbook: 1.6-1.7 percent)
October	3	1	3	4	4	2	0	0
June	0	0	0	0	7	5	3	2
2009	(June Greenbook Extension and October Greenbook: 2.2-2.3 percent)
October	0	0	1	3	8	4	1	0
2010	(June Greenbook Extension: 2.2-2.3 percent; October Greenbook Extension: 2.0-2.1 percent)
October	0	0	0	2	9	6	0	0

Unemployment Rate Projections
Number of Participants (except as noted)
Projections	4.4-4.5	4.6-4.7	4.8-4.9	5.0-5.1	5.2-5.3
2007	(June and October Greenbook: 4.6-4.7 percent)
October	0	8	9	0	0
June	0	15	2	0	0
2008	(June and October Greenbook: 4.8-4.9 percent)
October	0	1	13	3	0
June	1	7	8	1	0
2009	(June Greenbook Extension and October Greenbook: 4.8-4.9 percent)
October	0	2	12	3	0
2010	(June and October Greenbook Extension: 4.8-4.9 percent)
October	0	4	10	3	0

Chart 2(b)
Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants (except as noted)
Projections	1.5-1.6	1.7-1.8	1.9-2.0	2.1-2.2	2.3-2.4	2.5-2.6	2.7-2.8	2.9-3.0	3.1-3.2
2007	(June and October Greenbook: 2.9-3.0 percent)
October	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	3
2008	(June Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent; October Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent)
October	0	7	5	4	1	0	0	0	0
2009	(June Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent; October Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent)
October	2	9	4	2	0	0	0	0	0
2010	(June and October Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent)
October	4	6	7	0	0	0	0	0	0

Core PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants (except as noted)
Projections	1.3-1.4	1.5-1.6	1.7-1.8	1.9-2.0	2.1-2.2	2.3-2.4
2007	(June Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent; October Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent)
October	0	0	7	8	2	0
June	0	0	0	9	8	0
2008	(June and October Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent)
October	0	0	9	8	0	0
June	0	0	6	8	3	0
2009	(June Greenbook Extension and October Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent)
October	0	2	9	6	0	0
2010	(June and October Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent)
October	0	4	8	5	0	0

Projection	Real GDP Growth	Unemployment Rate (%, Q4)	Total PCE Inflation	Core PCE Inflation
1	2.6	4.7	2.1	1.7
2	2.8	4.7	2.1	1.9
3	2.6	4.7	1.9	1.7
4	2.4	4.8	1.5	1.9
5	2.8	4.7	1.9	1.9
6	2.6	4.8	2.3	1.9
7	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.9
8	2.8	4.8	1.7	1.7
9	2.6	4.7	1.5	1.7
10	2.6	4.7	2.1	2.3
11	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.7
12	2.2	4.8	1.9	2.3
13	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.9
14	3.2	4.7	2.5	1.9
15	2.6	4.8	2.3	1.9
16	2.6	4.7	2.1	1.7
17	2.4	4.8	1.9	1.7

Projection	Real GDP Growth	Unemployment Rate (%, Q4)	Total PCE Inflation	Core PCE Inflation
1	2.6	4.7	2.1	1.7
2	2.8	4.7	2.1	1.9
3	2.6	4.7	1.9	1.7
4	2.4	4.8	1.5	1.9
5	2.8	4.7	1.9	1.9
6	2.6	4.8	2.3	1.9
7	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.9
8	2.8	4.8	1.7	1.7
9	2.6	4.7	1.5	1.7
10	2.6	4.7	2.1	2.3
11	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.7
12	2.2	4.8	1.9	2.3
13	2.6	4.8	2.1	1.9
14	3.2	4.7	2.5	1.9
15	2.6	4.8	2.3	1.9
16	2.6	4.7	2.1	1.7
17	2.4	4.8	1.9	1.7

Summary of Economic ProjectionsCompilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections

October 30-31, 2007 Material -- Accessible Version

Table 1Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents 1

Table 1aImplied Economic Projections for the second half of 2007 1

Table 2October Economic Projections

Chart 1Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections