Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
June 24-25, 2008 Presentation Materials -- Text Version

Pages 197 to 253 of the Transcript

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Dudley

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Page 1

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(1)

Title: U.S. Equity Indices
Series: S&P 500 index, Nasdaq index, and S&P 500 financials index
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: U.S. equity indices stabilize. Financials continue to underperform relative to broad indices.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(2)

Title: Corporate Credit Spreads and Yields
Series: Investment grade and high-yield corporate debt option-adjusted spreads and yields
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: Investment grade and high-yield corporate debt option-adjusted spreads and yields stabilize.

Source: Bloomberg

Bottom panel
(3)

Title: Global Credit Default Swap Spreads
Series: iTraxx Crossover Series 7 and Baa CDS spread
Horizon: May 1, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: iTraxx Crossover and Baa CDS spreads widen during the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg, Lehman Brothers

Page 2

Top panel
(4)

Title: Investment Bank Equity Prices
Series: Equity prices for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: Equity prices for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch decline; the share price of Lehman Brothers significantly underperformed.

Source: Bloomberg

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(5)

Title: Investment Bank CDS Spreads
Series: Credit default swap spreads for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: Credit default swap spreads for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch widen since the April FOMC meeting.

Source: Markit

Bottom panel
(6)

Title: Investment Bank Financial Leverage Ratios
Series: Financial leverage ratios for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch
Horizon: January 1, 2004 - May 31, 2008
Description: Financial leverage ratios for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Lehman Brothers decline sharply in the second quarter of 2008.

Source: Bloomberg

Page 3

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(7)

Title: Financial Guarantor Equity Prices
Series: Equity prices for Ambac, MBIA, XL-Cap, and AGO
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: Equity prices for Ambac, MBIA, XL-Cap, and AGO decline.

Source: Bloomberg

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(8)

Title: Financial Guarantor CDS Spreads
Series: Credit default swap spreads for Ambac, MBIA, XL-Cap, AGO, and FGIC
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: Credit default swap spreads for Ambac, MBIA, XL-Cap, AGO, and FGIC widen.

Source: Markit

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(9)

Title: Ten- and Thirty-Year AAA-Rated Municipals
Series: Ratio of the 10-Year AAA-rated municipal yields to the 10-Year Treasury yield and the ratio of the 30-Year AAA-rated municipal yield to the 30-Year Treasury yield
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: The ratios of 10- and 30-year AAA-rated municipal debt yields to Treasury yields continue to decline from levels observed in March.

Source: Bloomberg

Page 4

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(10)

Title: One-Month Libor-OIS Spreads
Series: Spreads between one-month Libor rates and one-month overnight index swap rates for U.S., U.K., and Euro Area
Horizon: August 14, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: The spreads between one-month Libor rates and one-month overnight index swap rates for the U.S., U.K., and Euro area stabilize at elevated levels.

Source: Bloomberg

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(11)

Title: Three-Month Libor-OIS Spreads
Series: Spreads between three-month Libor rate and three-month overnight index swap rates for U.S., U.K., and Euro Area
Horizon: August 14, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: The spreads between three-month Libor rates and three-month overnight index swap rates for the U.S., U.K., and Euro area stabilize at elevated levels.

Source: Bloomberg

Page 5

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(12)

Title: Federal Reserve Term Auction Facility Results
Series: TAF auction size and spread between the TAF stop-out and minimum bid rates
Horizon: December 20, 2007 - June 19, 2008
Description: The spread between the TAF stop-out and the minimum bid rates declines since the April FOMC meeting, and the size of the TAF auctions was increased.

Source: Federal Reserve Board

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(13)

Title: Central Bank Term Funding Facilities' Bid-to-Cover Ratios
Series: Bid-to-cover ratios for the Federal Reserve Term Auction Facility, the European Central Bank foreign exchange swap line, and Swiss National Bank foreign exchange swap line
Horizon: December 20, 2007 - June 19, 2008
Description: Bid-to-cover ratios in the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank U.S. dollar auctions have recently been higher than the bid-to-cover ratio in the Federal Reserve TAF auctions.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank

Page 6

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(14)

Title: Commodity Prices
Series: GSCI spot, energy, agriculture, and industrial metals indices
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: The rise in commodity prices during the intermeeting period was largely concentrated in the energy and the agriculture sectors.

Source: Bloomberg

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(15)

Title: Dollar Stabilizes
Series: Yen-USD, Euro-USD, and broad trade-weighted dollar
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: Since the April FOMC meeting, the U.S. dollar has appreciated against the Japanese yen and stabilized against the euro. The broad trade-weighted dollar has been stable since March.

Source: Bloomberg and Federal Reserve Board

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(16)

Title: Correlation Between Weekly Changes in Spot WTI Crude Oil and the Trade-Weighted Dollar
Series: Six-month rolling correlation of percent changes in the weekly average of daily closing prices of the WTI spot crude oil price and the Federal Reserve Board's nominal trade-weighted dollar index, and the one-year moving average of this correlation
Horizon: January 1, 1987 - June 2, 2008
Description: The correlation between the spot WTI crude oil price and the nominal trade-weighted dollar has been increasing since the beginning of 2005, though has moderated over recent months.

** One-year rolling correlation of percentage changes in the weekly average of daily closing prices of the WTI spot crude oil price and the Federal Reserve Board's nominal trade-weighted dollar index (vis-à-vis major currencies).

Source: Federal Reserve Board, CEIC

Page 7

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(17)

Title: University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
Series: One- and Five-Year University of Michigan Survey Inflation Expectations
Horizon: June 1, 1980 - June 20, 2008
Description: 1- and 5-year University of Michigan Survey inflation expectations increase in recent months. The 1-year measure is at its highest level in over 25 years, while the 5-year measure has risen only modestly.

Source: Bloomberg

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(18)

Title: TIPS Implied Average Rate of Inflation: 5-10 Year Horizon
Series: Federal Reserve Board's 5-10 Year horizon TIPS inflation compensation and Barclays' 5-10 Year horizon TIPS inflation compensation
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: TIPS inflation compensation over a 5-10 year horizon was relatively unchanged since the April FOMC meeting as measured by both the Federal Reserve Board and Barclays.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Barclays Capital

Page 8

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(19)

Title: Fed Funds Futures Curves
Series: Fed funds futures curve as of 3/17/2008, 4/29/2008, and 6/20/2008
Horizon: March 17, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: The fed funds futures curve steepens since the April FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

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(20)

Title: Eurodollar Futures Curves
Series: Eurodollar futures curve as of 3/17/2008, 4/29/2008, and 6/20/2008
Horizon: March 17, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: The Eurodollar futures curve has shifted higher since the April FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9

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(21)

Title: Distribution of Expected Policy Target Rate Among Primary Dealers Prior to June 25 FOMC Meeting
Series: Dealer expectations for policy target rate by quarter, average forecast for policy target by quarter, and market rate for policy expectation by quarter as of 6/16/2008
Horizon: 2008:Q2 - 2009:Q4
Description: On average, primary dealers expect lower policy rates than what is currently priced into Eurodollar futures for 2008.

Source: Dealer Policy Survey

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(22)

Title: Distribution of Expected Policy Target Rate Among Primary Dealers Prior to April 29-30 FOMC Meeting
Series: Dealer expectations for policy target rate by quarter, average forecast for policy target by quarter, and market rate for policy expectation by quarter as of 4/21/2008
Horizon: 2008:Q2 - 2009:Q4
Description: On average, primary dealers expect lower policy rates than what was priced into Eurodollar futures at the time of the April FOMC meeting.

Source: Dealer Policy Survey

Page 10

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(23)

Title: Probabilities for Policy Rate Outcomes for June FOMC Meeting
Series: Probabilities for a 1.50, 1.75, 2.00, or 2.25 percent target rate at the June FOMC meeting
Horizon: April 1, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: At the time of the June 25 FOMC meeting, options on fed funds futures suggested a 2.00 percent target rate was the most likely outcome following the meeting.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

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(24)

Title: Probabilities for Policy Rate Outcomes for August FOMC Meeting
Series: Probabilities for a 1.75, 2.00, 2.25, or 2.50 percent target rate at the August FOMC meeting
Horizon: May 9, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: At the time of the June 25 FOMC meeting, options on fed funds futures suggested a 2.00 percent target rate was the most likely outcome following the August 5 FOMC meeting.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

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(25)

Title: Considerable Tightening Expected Over the Next Year
Series: Spread between the fourth Eurodollar futures contract and the fed funds target rate adjusted based on forward Libor-fed funds basis swap spreads for the 9/4/1992, 1/31/1996, 11/17/1998, 6/25/2003, and 4/30/2008 FOMC meetings
Horizon: September 4, 1992 - April 30, 2008
Description: The magnitude of policy rate increases anticipated over the next year is greater than that which was priced in over a similar time horizon at the conclusion of the last 3 policy easing cycles, in 2003, 1998, and 1996.

Note: Dates represent last interest rate cut of previous cycles and assumes 4/30/08 is the last interest rate cut of the current cycle.

Source: Bloomberg

APPENDIX: Reference Exhibits

Page 11

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(26) Federal Reserve Term Auction Facility Results

December 20, 2007 - June 19, 2008
Auction Settlement	Term	Amount	Minimum Bid Rate	Stop-out Rate	Propositions	Bid/Cover	Bidders
12/20/2007	28 Days	$20 b	4.17%	4.65%	$61.6 b	3.08	93
12/27/2007	35 Days	$20 b	4.15%	4.67%	$57.7 b	2.88	73
1/17/2008	28 Days	$30 b	3.88%	3.95%	$55.5 b	1.85	56
1/31/2008	28 Days	$30 b	3.10%	3.12%	$37.5 b	1.25	52
2/14/2008	28 Days	$30 b	2.86%	3.01%	$58.4 b	1.95	66
2/28/2008	28 Days	$30 b	2.81%	3.08%	$68.0 b	2.27	72
3/13/2008	28 Days	$50 b	2.39%	2.80%	$92.6 b	1.85	82
3/27/2008	28 Days	$50 b	2.19%	2.62%	$88.9 b	1.78	88
4/10/2008	28 Days	$50 b	2.11%	2.82%	$91.6 b	1.83	79
4/24/2008	28 Days	$50 b	2.05%	2.87%	$88.9 b	1.77	89
5/8/2008	28 Days	$75 b	2.00%	2.22%	$96.8 b	1.29	71
5/22/2008	28 Days	$75 b	1.99%	2.10%	$84.4 b	1.13	75
6/5/2008	28 Days	$75 b	2.00%	2.26%	$95.9 b	1.28	73
6/19/2008	28 Days	$75 b	2.05%	2.36%	$89.4 b	1.19	76

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Page 12

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(27) Term Securities Lending Facility Auction Results

Auction Settlement	Term	Collateral	Amount	Minimum Fee Rate	Stop-out Rate	Propositions	Bid/Cover
3/28/2008	28 Days	Schedule 2	$75 b	0.25%	0.33%	$86.1 b	1.15
4/4/2008	28 Days	Schedule 1	$25 b	0.10%	0.16%	$46.9 b	1.88
4/11/2008	28 Days	Schedule 2	$50 b	0.25%	0.25%	$40.0 b	0.68
4/18/2008	28 Days	Schedule 1	$25 b	0.10%	0.10%	$35.1 b	1.40
4/25/2008	28 Days	Schedule 2	$75 b	0.25%	0.25%	$59.5 b	0.79
5/2/2008	28 Days	Schedule 1	$25 b	0.10%	0.10%	$24.1 b	0.96
5/9/2008	28 Days	Schedule 2	$50 b	0.25%	0.25%	$28.7 b	0.58
5/16/2008	28 Days	Schedule 1	$25 b	0.10%	0.10%	$7.2 b	0.29
5/23/2008	28 Days	Schedule 2	$75 b	0.25%	0.25%	$46.1 b	0.62
5/30/2008	28 Days	Schedule 1	$25 b	0.10%	0.10%	$16.4 b	0.66
6/6/2008	28 Days	Schedule 2	$50 b	0.25%	0.25%	$26.9 b	0.54
6/13/2008	28 Days	Schedule 1	$25 b	0.10%	0.10%	$27.2 b	1.09
6/20/2008	28 Days	Schedule 2	$75 b	0.25%	0.25%	$36.8 b	0.49

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Page 13

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(28)

Title: Spread Between Nominal and Inflation Protected Treasury Yields
Series: Five- and ten-year spreads between nominal and inflation protected Treasury yields
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: The spreads between 5- and 10-year nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields increased since the April FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle panel
(29)

Title: Treasury Yield Curve
Series: Constant maturity Treasury yield curve as of 3/17/2008, 4/29/2008, and 6/20/2008
Horizon: March 17, 2008 - June 20, 2008
Description: The Treasury yield curve has shifted higher since the April FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

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(30)

Title: Implied Volatility Across Markets
Series: VIX index, MOVE index, 1-month Euro-Dollar volatility index, and 1-month Dollar-Yen volatility index
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - June 20, 2008
Description: Implied volatility in equity and Treasury markets increased since the April FOMC meeting, while implied volatility in currency markets stabilized.

Source: Bloomberg

Appendix 2: Materials used by Messrs. Sheets, Slifman, and Wascher

Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook
June 24, 2008

CLASS II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Outlook for Foreign Growth

Top panel
Real GDP Projections*

Percent change, annual rate**
		2007		2008			2009^p
		Q1-Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2^p	H2^p	2009^p
1.	Total Foreign	4.5	3.0	2.9	2.2	2.6	3.4
2.	Advanced Foreign	2.9	1.4	1.5	1.0	1.2	2.1
3.	Canada	3.4	0.8	-0.3	1.0	1.2	2.2
4.	Japan	0.9	2.9	4.0	0.6	1.0	1.6
5.	Euro Area	2.4	1.3	3.2	0.7	1.1	2.1
6.	United Kingdom	3.0	2.5	1.6	1.0	0.7	1.7
7.	Emerging Markets	6.7	5.1	4.8	3.8	4.5	5.1
8.	Mexico	4.2	3.3	2.1	1.2	2.7	3.6
9.	China	11.6	10.6	11.7	8.7	8.8	9.6

* Aggregates weighted by U.S. merchandise export shares. Return to text

** Year is Q4/Q4; half year is Q4/Q2; Q1-Q3 is Q3/Q4. Return to table

Middle-left panel
Japan

A line chart shows Japanese manufacturing output and the ratio of job openings to applicants for the period of 2006-2008. Japanese manufacturing output increased eight percent between 2006 and early 2008, but in recent months it has fallen slightly. Meanwhile, the ratio of Japanese job openings to applicants fell below 1.00 in late 2007, reaching a low of around 0.93 at the time of this briefing.

Middle-right panel
Euro Area

A line chart for the Euro Area shows the 12-month percent change for retail sales and the total purchasing managers' index for the period of 2006-2008. The 12-month percent change for Euro Area retail sales has been mostly negative since the last quarter of 2007, falling to a value of -2 percent at the end of 2008:Q1. Similarly, the purchasing managers' index has also been falling, and the June 2008 flash estimate is slightly contractionary at less than 50.

Bottom panel
Real GDP Growth

A line chart shows the Q4/Q4 percent change of GDP aggregates weighted by U.S. merchandise export shares for the United States, advanced foreign economies, and emerging market economies from 1970 through 2009. It indicates U.S. recessions*, and it forecasts the period from 2008-2009. U.S. GDP growth falls to zero or negative for every recession, and these periods also see a drop in both advanced and emerging market economies' GDP growth as well. In the recession in 2001, all three fell to less than 2%, with emerging market economies experiencing a slightly negative GDP growth at that time. In the forecast period, growth for the U.S. and advanced foreign economies is expected to hover around 2%, while GDP growth for emerging market economies is forecasted to fall from 6% in 2007 to almost 4% in 2008, then recover slightly to 5% by 2009.

* Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): 1969:Q4-1970:Q4, 1973:Q4-1975:Q1, 1980:Q1-1980:Q3, 1981:Q3-1982:Q4, 1990:Q3-1991:Q1, and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4. Return to text

Exhibit 2
Oil Market

Top-left panel
West Texas Intermediate

A line chart shows the monthly spot price and far-dated futures price of West Texas Intermediate from 2005, including the forecast of the spot price from mid-2008 through 2009. The forecast from the January chart show is included for comparison. While spot and futures prices hovered between 50-80 dollars per barrel between 2005 and 2007, in late 2007 they began to rise rapidly and the spot price of WTI closed yesterday at $136 per barrel. The far-dated futures price climbed in the same manner and is now at about the same level. Prices are forecasted to remain at this elevated level through the forecast period, which is about $50 higher than was forecasted in January.

Top-right panel
OECD Private Inventories of Oil and Products

A line chart shows the OECD Private Inventories of Oil and Products from 2005-2008, along with the five-year average level historical range of ± 1 standard deviation. This includes both crude oil and petroleum products and excludes official inventories. In the past few years, inventories have been at the upper end of their historical range, but since mid-2007 they have been falling from around 2700 million barrels to a current level of about 2550 million barrels, which is towards the center of their historical range.

Source: International Energy Agency.

Middle panel
World Oil Balance

Millions of barrels per day
		2005	2006	2007	2008^p	% change 05-08
1.	Consumption	83.8	84.9	86.0	86.8	3.6
2.	Advanced Economies	45.4	45.2	44.8	44.4	-2.2
3.	United States	21.2	21.0	21.2	20.6	-2.8
4.	Emerging Markets	38.4	39.7	41.1	42.4	10.4
5.	China	6.7	7.2	7.5	8.0	19.4
6.	Middle East	6.0	6.2	6.5	6.8	13.3
7.	Production	84.6	85.4	85.5	87.0	2.8
8.	OPEC	34.3	34.4	33.9	35.1	2.3
9.	Non-OPEC	50.3	51.0	51.6	51.9	3.2
10.	Implied Stockbuild and Discrepancy	0.8	0.5	-0.5	0.2	--

Source: International Energy Agency and staff estimates. Non-OPEC production includes Angola and Ecuador.

Bottom-left panel
World Oil Production and GDP

A line chart shows oil production, indexed to 2002:Q1, and world GDP weighted by oil consumption shares. While world GDP has increased 30% since 2002, oil production has remained flat at only 10% higher than the 2002 level. Oil production is forecasted to increase slightly in 2008 to about 15% higher than the 2002 level.

Bottom-right panel
Proved Oil Reserves

A stacked bar chart shows proven oil reserves from 1995 through 2006. Reserves in this period have been steady, continuously forecasted to contain 40 remaining years of reserves*. Since 1999, the availability of Canadian oil sands** adds about 5 additional years to these figures.

* Proved reserves/current oil production. Return to text

** Data unavailable before 1999. Return to text

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Exhibit 3

Non-fuel Commodities

Top-left panel
Non-fuel Commodity Prices

A line chart shows non-fuel commodity prices as an index from 2005 through the forecast period to the end of 2009. Prices rose 50% above their 2005 level by the end of 2007, and in the first half of 2008 prices have risen to 70% above their 2005 level. This is in contrast to the January forecast, which predicted prices to remain at the 2007 level.

Middle-left panel
Inventories of Selected Commodities

A line chart shows the inventories (weeks of consumption*) of wheat, corn, zinc, and copper from 2002 to 2008. All four have seen declining inventories. Wheat fell from about 14 weeks of consumption to 9 by 2007, then ticked up to 11 weeks of consumption by the middle of 2008. Corn has fallen from 10 to 7 weeks of consumption, and copper from 7 to 2 weeks of consumption. Zinc inventories fell from a level of 8 weeks of consumption in 2002 to 4 by mid-2006, and have remained at that level in the intervening period.

* Period-end stocks/annual consumption. For grains, 2008 is USDA estimate. For metals, 2008 is stock at end of March over 2007 usage. Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Prices of Selected Commodities

A line chart shows the price of copper, wheat, corn, and zinc from 2005-2008 on a weekly basis. Wheat has risen from $3.6 per bushel in 2005 to $14 per bushel by the beginning of 2008, and has since fallen slightly and is now about $11 per bushel. Corn has risen from $2.5 per bushel to about $6.5 per bushel at the time of this briefing. Copper increased from $1.8 per pound in 2005 to $4.4 by early 2006, and has remained around that level through mid-2008. Zinc rose from $0.5 per pound in 2005 to about $2 per pound by late 2006, but has since fallen and is now at about $1 per pound.

Other Explanations for Recent Moves in Commodity Prices

Top-right panel
Role of Speculators?

Prices of commodities not traded in futures markets have also risen.
Inventories are relatively tight.
No evidence that positions taken by non-commercial traders predict commodity prices.

Middle-right panel
Correlations: Commodity Prices and the Dollar

A line chart shows the 60-day moving correlation of WTI oil price and non-fuel commodity prices** with the broad nominal dollar index from 2004 to 2008.

The correlation of WTI oil price with the dollar began at -0.5 in early 2004. It rose to 0.1 by the middle of that year, and continued to fluctuate between about 0.1 and -0.3 through mid-2006, reaching a high of 0.2 in 2005 and a low of -0.5 in 2006. Since late 2005 the correlation has remained negative, with a value of -0.4 at the time of this briefing.

The correlation of non-fuel commodity prices with the dollar has shown a similar trend, starting at -0.2 in 2004, rising to almost 0 by the end of 2004, then falling to nearly -0.7 in early 2005. Since then, the correlation has fluctuated between -0.6 and 0.1, with a current value of about -0.3.

** Commodity Research Bureau index. Return to text

Bottom-right panel
Correlations: Commodity Prices and Interest Rates

A line chart shows the 60-day moving correlation of WTI oil price and non-fuel commodity prices** with the three-month Treasury bill interest rate from 2004 to 2008. Both series fluctuate greatly around zero.

The oil price correlation starts at -0.1 in 2004, falls to -0.4 by the end of that year, then continues to fluctuate between -0.3 and 0.2, ending at the time of this briefing at -0.2.

The correlation of non-fuel commodity prices also starts at -0.1 in 2004, similarly rises to 0.3 by early 2005, and fluctuates in a similar manner, reaching a low of -0.4 and a high of 0.4 in the period from 2004-2008. At the time of this briefing, the correlation of non-fuel commodity prices is also about -0.2.

** Commodity Research Bureau index. Return to text

Exhibit 4
Outlook for Foreign Inflation

Top-left panel
Outlook for Inflation

A line chart shows the inflation outlook for emerging and advanced foreign economies from 2006 through the forecast of 2009. The inflation outlook for emerging markets rose from 3% in 2006 to 7% by the second half of 2007. Although our January Greenbook forecasted inflation for EMEs falling to 3.5% by early 2008, inflation has remained around 7%. However, our current forecast anticipates inflation gradually falling to that level of 3.5 % by late-2009. AFE inflation began 2006 at about 2%, and fell to 0.5% in late 2006, but has been generally increasing to its current level of about 3%. The January Greenbook forecasted AFE inflation falling to just under 2% by 2008:Q1. Our current forecast expects it to remain around 3% until later this year, when we anticipate it falling to 2% by the end of the year.

Top-right panels
Inflation Compensation

Two line charts. The top chart shows Euro area* and far-dated euro area** compensation from 2006-2008. These have both fluctuated slightly between an initial level of 2.1% and 2.4%, and in the past quarter have risen to 2.6%. The bottom chart shows Canada*** compensation from 2006-2008. The inflation compensation for Canada hovered around 2.7% in early 2006, then slowly declined to 2% by late 2007, but has since risen sharply to 2.6% at the time of this briefing.

* Next ten years, break-even inflation. Return to text

** Five-to-ten years ahead, derived from inflation swaps. Return to text

*** Next 15 years, break-even inflation. Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Policy Interest Rates

A line chart shows policy interest rates for the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and European Central Bank from 2005 through the forecast period to the end of 2009. Bank of England's rate was 4.75% in the beginning of 2005, stepped down to 4.5% by the middle of that year through mid-2006, then stepped up to 5.75% by late 2007. Since then it has been stepping down to a current rate of 5%. Though our April forecast anticipated a slight continuation of this loosening, current forecast estimates anticipate an increase in the policy rate to 5.5% in coming months and rates remaining at this level until late 2009. The Bank of Canada maintained a rate of 2.5% through most of 2005, when it began stepping up tightening, reaching a rate of 4.25% from mid-2006 to mid-2007, then a rate of 4.5% for the second half of 2007. In the beginning of 2008 the Bank of Canada began loosening policy to a current rate of 3%. Our April forecast anticipated a continued loosening to a rate of 2.5%, but our current forecast anticipates rates remaining at 3% through the forecast period. The ECB maintained a rate of 2% through 2005, at which point it began stepping up rates to a level of 4%, which it maintained from mid-2007 to present. Our April Greenbook forecasted a loosening of the ECB rate to 3.5%, but our current forecasts anticipates a slight tightening to 4.25% in coming months.

Bottom-right panel
Consumer Prices in Selected Emerging Markets

A line chart shows the 12-month percent change of Chinese and Mexican core* and headline inflation from 2005 to 2008. Chinese headline inflation started at 2% in the beginning of 2005, briefly spiked to 4%, then fell to about 1.5% through the end of 2006. In late 2006, Chinese headline inflation began rising rapidly, reaching a peak of nearly 9% at the beginning of 2008. It has since declined slightly to about 7.5% in mid-2008. Chinese core inflation has been much steadier, remaining around 1% over the sample period. Mexican headline inflation remained roughly around 4% from 2005-2008, but in the past few month it has risen to 5%. Mexican core inflation stayed about 3% from 2005-2007, but since the beginning of this year it too has slightly trended up to 3.5%.

* Excluding food and energy prices. Return to text

Exhibit 5
U.S. External Sector

Top-left panel
Broad Real Dollar

A line chart shows the broad real dollar from 2006 through the projection period to 2009. It is currently about 13% lower than its January 2006 level, which is slightly lower than was projected in the January 2008 Greenbook, and it is now projected to depreciate at a 3% rate throughout the forecast period.

Top-right panel
Core Import Prices

A line chart shows core import prices from 2005 through the projection period to 2009. Core import prices inflation fluctuated at a 2-3% annual rate from 2005 through the end of 2007, and the January Greenbook forecasted import price inflation to fall to about 1% in the second quarter of 2008 and remain there through the forecast period. However, in the last few months core import prices have surged at a 10½% annual rate. Our current forecast expects this to fall in the near future and return to an annual rate of 1-2% by the end of this year.

Bottom panel
U.S. Trade Outlook

		2007		2008			2009^p
		H1	H2	Q1^e	Q2^p	H2^p	2009^p
Growth rates (percent, annual rate*)
1.	Real exports	4.3	12.6	5.6	7.2	7.2	7.5
2.	Real imports	0.5	1.4	-0.5	-6.7	1.0	2.8
Contribution to U.S. real GDP growth (percentage points, annual rate*)
3.	Real net exports	0.4	1.2	0.8	2.1	0.7	0.5
Memo:
4.	Current account balance (percent of GDP)	-5.7	-4.9	-5.0	-5.1	-5.4	-4.6
5.	Non-oil trade balance (percent of GDP)	-3.1	-2.3	-1.8	-1.7	-1.3	-0.8

* Year is Q4/Q4; half years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2. Return to table

Exhibit 6
Recent Indicators

Top-left panel
Consumer Sentiment Index

Index, 1966 = 100
Period	Reuters/Michigan
January 2000	112.0
February 2000	111.3
March 2000	107.1
April 2000	109.2
May 2000	110.7
June 2000	106.4
July 2000	108.3
August 2000	107.3
September 2000	106.8
October 2000	105.8
November 2000	107.6
December 2000	98.4
January 2001	94.7
February 2001	90.6
March 2001	91.5
April 2001	88.4
May 2001	92.0
June 2001	92.6
July 2001	92.4
August 2001	91.5
September 2001	81.8
October 2001	82.7
November 2001	83.9
December 2001	88.8
January 2002	93.0
February 2002	90.7
March 2002	95.7
April 2002	93.0
May 2002	96.9
June 2002	92.4
July 2002	88.1
August 2002	87.6
September 2002	86.1
October 2002	80.6
November 2002	84.2
December 2002	86.7
January 2003	82.4
February 2003	79.9
March 2003	77.6
April 2003	86.0
May 2003	92.1
June 2003	89.7
July 2003	90.9
August 2003	89.3
September 2003	87.7
October 2003	89.6
November 2003	93.7
December 2003	92.6
January 2004	103.8
February 2004	94.4
March 2004	95.8
April 2004	94.2
May 2004	90.2
June 2004	95.6
July 2004	96.7
August 2004	95.9
September 2004	94.2
October 2004	91.7
November 2004	92.8
December 2004	97.1
January 2005	95.5
February 2005	94.1
March 2005	92.6
April 2005	87.7
May 2005	86.9
June 2005	96.0
July 2005	96.5
August 2005	89.1
September 2005	76.9
October 2005	74.2
November 2005	81.6
December 2005	91.5
January 2006	91.2
February 2006	86.7
March 2006	88.9
April 2006	87.4
May 2006	79.1
June 2006	84.9
July 2006	84.7
August 2006	82.0
September 2006	85.4
October 2006	93.6
November 2006	92.1
December 2006	91.7
January 2007	96.9
February 2007	91.3
March 2007	88.4
April 2007	87.1
May 2007	88.3
June 2007	85.3
July 2007	90.4
August 2007	83.4
September 2007	83.4
October 2007	80.9
November 2007	76.1
December 2007	75.5
January 2008	78.4
February 2008	70.8
March 2008	69.5
April 2008	62.6
May 2008	59.8
June 2008 (p)	56.7

Note: Gray shading represents NBER recession dates (March 2001-November 2001).

p - Preliminary Return to table

Top-right panel
Business Sentiment

Diffusion index
Period	Empire index*	Philadelphia index*
January 2002	48.97	52.41
February 2002	53.06	53.16
March 2002	48.79	53.66
April 2002	54.12	53.81
May 2002	50.28	52.76
June 2002	50.90	57.81
July 2002	44.66	50.66
August 2002	49.22	47.26
September 2002	49.47	50.06
October 2002	42.52	44.11
November 2002	48.11	51.41
December 2002	48.78	51.66
January 2003	52.12	49.46
February 2003	44.18	46.86
March 2003	45.29	45.51
April 2003	37.28	44.01
May 2003	51.89	47.41
June 2003	58.89	49.51
July 2003	55.24	51.51
August 2003	53.20	58.46
September 2003	56.14	58.31
October 2003	63.90	62.11
November 2003	62.73	61.21
December 2003	60.98	61.51
January 2004	63.94	64.41
February 2004	64.10	61.66
March 2004	58.73	62.16
April 2004	64.29	63.21
May 2004	62.82	62.21
June 2004	59.34	63.01
July 2004	63.03	64.96
August 2004	53.51	61.36
September 2004	60.09	57.66
October 2004	57.82	61.66
November 2004	53.24	57.51
December 2004	57.67	61.41
January 2005	55.28	52.51
February 2005	53.49	58.06
March 2005	55.03	54.56
April 2005	49.70	59.31
May 2005	42.46	52.26
June 2005	49.29	47.11
July 2005	57.37	51.76
August 2005	57.84	55.26
September 2005	54.66	51.46
October 2005	51.72	50.66
November 2005	54.41	53.01
December 2005	58.11	55.31
January 2006	55.83	48.51
February 2006	54.87	54.41
March 2006	60.12	54.01
April 2006	55.53	53.26
May 2006	54.54	54.41
June 2006	58.44	53.61
July 2006	53.57	49.81
August 2006	52.64	56.61
September 2006	53.74	47.96
October 2006	55.38	49.41
November 2006	56.55	50.16
December 2006	56.44	48.36
January 2007	50.64	49.46
February 2007	56.17	47.81
March 2007	48.83	47.76
April 2007	49.02	47.26
May 2007	50.57	49.71
June 2007	57.26	56.51
July 2007	58.38	51.11
August 2007	58.11	50.51
September 2007	53.46	52.26
October 2007	59.18	51.86
November 2007	57.54	51.41
December 2007	50.42	46.86
January 2008	50.03	37.21
February 2008	39.66	35.66
March 2008	34.40	38.96
April 2008	45.83	35.21
May 2008	43.90	39.86
June 2008	41.18	39.11

* Index means are normalized. Return to table

Middle-left panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Period	Thousands of employees	April GB
January 2000	241.00	ND
February 2000	187.00	ND
March 2000	216.33	ND
April 2000	216.00	ND
May 2000	145.00	ND
June 2000	103.67	ND
July 2000	92.33	ND
August 2000	143.33	ND
September 2000	146.67	ND
October 2000	79.33	ND
November 2000	139.67	ND
December 2000	96.33	ND
January 2001	87.00	ND
February 2001	12.33	ND
March 2001	-42.00	ND
April 2001	-135.67	ND
May 2001	-159.33	ND
June 2001	-215.00	ND
July 2001	-163.33	ND
August 2001	-200.67	ND
September 2001	-211.33	ND
October 2001	-273.00	ND
November 2001	-323.00	ND
December 2001	-302.67	ND
January 2002	-234.67	ND
February 2002	-173.67	ND
March 2002	-126.33	ND
April 2002	-107.33	ND
May 2002	-80.00	ND
June 2002	-55.00	ND
July 2002	-53.33	ND
August 2002	-47.67	ND
September 2002	-55.00	ND
October 2002	13.33	ND
November 2002	29.00	ND
December 2002	-21.33	ND
January 2003	-44.00	ND
February 2003	-91.33	ND
March 2003	-103.00	ND
April 2003	-129.33	ND
May 2003	-70.00	ND
June 2003	-17.67	ND
July 2003	-7.00	ND
August 2003	-2.67	ND
September 2003	62.67	ND
October 2003	113.00	ND
November 2003	115.00	ND
December 2003	101.00	ND
January 2004	103.00	ND
February 2004	95.67	ND
March 2004	155.00	ND
April 2004	184.67	ND
May 2004	277.00	ND
June 2004	217.00	ND
July 2004	152.33	ND
August 2004	81.33	ND
September 2004	101.33	ND
October 2004	192.00	ND
November 2004	177.67	ND
December 2004	164.33	ND
January 2005	88.67	ND
February 2005	145.00	ND
March 2005	143.00	ND
April 2005	213.33	ND
May 2005	199.00	ND
June 2005	250.00	ND
July 2005	239.00	ND
August 2005	251.33	ND
September 2005	200.67	ND
October 2005	150.67	ND
November 2005	190.67	ND
December 2005	192.67	ND
January 2006	240.67	ND
February 2006	215.67	ND
March 2006	250.67	ND
April 2006	206.33	ND
May 2006	129.00	ND
June 2006	82.67	ND
July 2006	99.33	ND
August 2006	151.67	ND
September 2006	158.67	ND
October 2006	119.67	ND
November 2006	119.00	ND
December 2006	142.33	ND
January 2007	155.33	ND
February 2007	98.67	ND
March 2007	89.33	ND
April 2007	63.33	ND
May 2007	108.67	ND
June 2007	85.33	ND
July 2007	105.67	ND
August 2007	70.67	ND
September 2007	62.33	ND
October 2007	67.67	ND
November 2007	71.67	ND
December 2007	45.00	ND
January 2008	-16.33	ND
February 2008	-67.33	ND
March 2008	-97.00	ND
April 2008	-84.00	ND
May 2008	-69.67	-143.00

Note: Three-month moving average. Gray shading represents NBER recession dates (March 2001-November 2001).

ND No data Return to table

Middle-right panel
Real Goods PCE, Excluding Motor Vehicles

Billions of chained 2000 dollars
Period	Current	April GB
October 2007	3242.2	ND
November 2007	3243.8	ND
December 2007	3224.7	3224.7
January 2008	3231.5	3224.8
February 2008	3228.3	3222.9
March 2008	3250.4	3225.2
April 2008	3269.2	3212.9
May 2008	3284.1	3219.9

Percent change, a.r.
	Current	April GB
2008:Q1	0.0	-1.5
2008:Q2	5.8	-0.6
2008:Q3	3.2	0.0

Bottom-left panel
Business Spending Indicators

(Percent change from previous month; monthly rate)
	2008
	Feb.	March	April
Shipments*	-1.3	0.8	0.2
Orders*	-0.9	-1.0	4.0
Nonresidential construction put in place	1.1	1.2	1.6

* Nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft. Return to table

Bottom-right panel
Sales of Light Vehicles

Millions of units, annual rate
Period	Sales
January 2006	17.51
February 2006	16.51
March 2006	16.52
April 2006	16.63
May 2006	16.24
June 2006	16.21
July 2006	16.87
August 2006	16.10
September 2006	16.54
October 2006	16.24
November 2006	16.09
December 2006	16.91
January 2007	16.30
February 2007	16.50
March 2007	16.20
April 2007	16.21
May 2007	16.27
June 2007	15.62
July 2007	15.22
August 2007	16.22
September 2007	16.17
October 2007	16.02
November 2007	16.14
December 2007	16.17
January 2008	15.26
February 2008	15.31
March 2008	15.05
April 2008	14.40
May 2008	14.25

As shown in the figure, the range of industry forecasts for June 2008 is approximately 13.2-14.2 million units (annual rate).

Exhibit 7
Key Background Factors and Medium-Term Outlook

Top panel
Factors Affecting GDP Forecast

Revised up the forecast for Q1 and Q2 in light of the incoming information.
Tempered our judgmental adjustments; but we still anticipate recession-like and financial turmoil effects to show through to spending for the next few quarters.
Residential investment still a drag on economic growth well into next year.
Ratio of household net worth to income remains on a downward trajectory.
Higher oil prices
Tighter monetary policy
Faster potential GDP growth

Middle-left panel
Oil Price

Dollars per barrel
Period	Oil Price	April GB	Forecast
2005:Q1	49.68	ND	ND
2005:Q2	53.09	ND	ND
2005:Q3	63.08	ND	ND
2005:Q4	60.03	ND	ND
2006:Q1	63.34	ND	ND
2006:Q2	70.53	ND	ND
2006:Q3	70.44	ND	ND
2006:Q4	60.04	ND	ND
2007:Q1	58.02	ND	ND
2007:Q2	64.97	ND	ND
2007:Q3	75.48	ND	ND
2007:Q4	90.75	ND	ND
2008:Q1	97.91	97.91	ND
2008:Q2	ND	116.63	123.65
2008:Q3	ND	116.54	135.28
2008:Q4	ND	114.76	136.42
2009:Q1	ND	113.18	136.64
2009:Q2	ND	111.84	136.39
2009:Q3	ND	110.71	136.00
2009:Q4	ND	109.81	135.70

Note: West Texas intermediate spot price.

Effect of Oil Price Surprise Since Apr. GB on Q4/Q4 GDP Growth
2008	-0.2 p.p.
2009	-0.3 p.p.

Middle-right panel
Federal Funds Rate

Percent
Period	Target Federal Funds Rate	April GB	Forecast
14 December 2004	2.25	ND	ND
2 February 2005	2.50	ND	ND
22 March 2005	2.75	ND	ND
3 May 2005	3.00	ND	ND
30 June 2005	3.25	ND	ND
9 August 2005	3.50	ND	ND
20 September 2005	3.75	ND	ND
1 November 2005	4.00	ND	ND
13 December 2005	4.25	ND	ND
31 January 2006	4.50	ND	ND
28 March 2006	4.75	ND	ND
10 May 2006	5.00	ND	ND
29 June 2006	5.25	ND	ND
8 August 2006	5.25	ND	ND
20 September 2006	5.25	ND	ND
25 October 2006	5.25	ND	ND
12 December 2006	5.25	ND	ND
31 January 2007	5.25	ND	ND
21 March 2007	5.25	ND	ND
9 May 2007	5.25	ND	ND
28 June 2007	5.25	ND	ND
7 August 2007	5.25	ND	ND
18 September 2007	4.75	ND	ND
31 October 2007	4.50	ND	ND
11 December 2007	4.25	ND	ND
22 January 2008	3.50	ND	ND
30 January 2008	3.00	ND	ND
18 March 2008	2.25	ND	ND
30 April 2008	2.00	ND	ND
2008:Q2	ND	2.00	2.00
2008:Q3	ND	1.75	2.00
2008:Q4	ND	1.75	2.00
2009:Q1	ND	1.75	2.20
2009:Q2	ND	1.75	2.50
2009:Q3	ND	1.75	2.75
2009:Q4	ND	1.75	2.75

[Note: Except 22 January 2008, the dates are those of regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings.]

Bottom-left panel
Real GDP Forecast

(Percent change; annual rate)
	Current	April GB
2008:Q1	1.1	0.4
2008:Q2	1.7	-1.4
2008:H2	0.7	0.9
2009	2.4	2.8

Note: Half year figure is Q4/Q2; annual figure is Q4/Q4.

Bottom-right panel
GDP Gap

Percent
Period	GDP Gap	April GB	Forecast
2005:Q1	-0.41	ND	ND
2005:Q2	-0.29	ND	ND
2005:Q3	0.23	ND	ND
2005:Q4	-0.05	ND	ND
2006:Q1	0.53	ND	ND
2006:Q2	0.53	ND	ND
2006:Q3	0.20	ND	ND
2006:Q4	0.12	ND	ND
2007:Q1	-0.36	ND	ND
2007:Q2	-0.04	ND	ND
2007:Q3	0.53	ND	ND
2007:Q4	0.06	ND	ND
2008:Q1	-0.28	-0.32	ND
2008:Q2	ND	-1.24	-0.47
2008:Q3	ND	-1.50	-0.87
2008:Q4	ND	-1.89	-1.37
2009:Q1	ND	-2.03	-1.65
2009:Q2	ND	-1.81	-1.60
2009:Q3	ND	-1.57	-1.53
2009:Q4	ND	-1.33	-1.45

Note: Percent difference between actual and potential. A negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential.

Exhibit 8
Housing

Top-left panel
Vacancy Rate: Single-family Homes*

Quarterly
Percent
Period	Vacancy Rate
1980:Q1	1.2
1980:Q2	1.2
1980:Q3	1.2
1980:Q4	1.1
1981:Q1	1.1
1981:Q2	1.0
1981:Q3	1.2
1981:Q4	1.1
1982:Q1	1.1
1982:Q2	1.2
1982:Q3	1.3
1982:Q4	1.3
1983:Q1	1.1
1983:Q2	1.2
1983:Q3	1.4
1983:Q4	1.4
1984:Q1	1.3
1984:Q2	1.3
1984:Q3	1.5
1984:Q4	1.4
1985:Q1	1.4
1985:Q2	1.5
1985:Q3	1.4
1985:Q4	1.3
1986:Q1	1.3
1986:Q2	1.4
1986:Q3	1.4
1986:Q4	1.3
1987:Q1	1.4
1987:Q2	1.4
1987:Q3	1.4
1987:Q4	1.3
1988:Q1	1.3
1988:Q2	1.3
1988:Q3	1.3
1988:Q4	1.3
1989:Q1	1.4
1989:Q2	1.4
1989:Q3	1.6
1989:Q4	1.5
1990:Q1	1.4
1990:Q2	1.3
1990:Q3	1.4
1990:Q4	1.4
1991:Q1	1.3
1991:Q2	1.4
1991:Q3	1.5
1991:Q4	1.3
1992:Q1	1.3
1992:Q2	1.3
1992:Q3	1.3
1992:Q4	1.2
1993:Q1	1.2
1993:Q2	1.1
1993:Q3	1.1
1993:Q4	1.2
1994:Q1	1.2
1994:Q2	1.2
1994:Q3	1.2
1994:Q4	1.4
1995:Q1	1.3
1995:Q2	1.4
1995:Q3	1.4
1995:Q4	1.4
1996:Q1	1.4
1996:Q2	1.3
1996:Q3	1.4
1996:Q4	1.4
1997:Q1	1.5
1997:Q2	1.5
1997:Q3	1.4
1997:Q4	1.5
1998:Q1	1.6
1998:Q2	1.5
1998:Q3	1.6
1998:Q4	1.6
1999:Q1	1.6
1999:Q2	1.5
1999:Q3	1.5
1999:Q4	1.5
2000:Q1	1.5
2000:Q2	1.3
2000:Q3	1.4
2000:Q4	1.4
2001:Q1	1.4
2001:Q2	1.5
2001:Q3	1.6
2001:Q4	1.7
2002:Q1	1.5
2002:Q2	1.5
2002:Q3	1.5
2002:Q4	1.6
2003:Q1	1.6
2003:Q2	1.5
2003:Q3	1.7
2003:Q4	1.6
2004:Q1	1.5
2004:Q2	1.5
2004:Q3	1.6
2004:Q4	1.6
2005:Q1	1.6
2005:Q2	1.6
2005:Q3	1.8
2005:Q4	1.8
2006:Q1	1.8
2006:Q2	1.9
2006:Q3	2.1
2006:Q4	2.2
2007:Q1	2.5
2007:Q2	2.3
2007:Q3	2.4
2007:Q4	2.5
2008:Q1	2.6

* Vacant units for sale relative to all units (vacant plus occupied). Return to text

Top-right panel
House Prices

Quarterly
Percent change, annual rate
Period	House Prices	Forecast
2000:Q1	7.23	ND
2000:Q2	6.88	ND
2000:Q3	6.50	ND
2000:Q4	6.90	ND
2001:Q1	7.54	ND
2001:Q2	6.80	ND
2001:Q3	6.43	ND
2001:Q4	6.30	ND
2002:Q1	6.75	ND
2002:Q2	7.45	ND
2002:Q3	8.11	ND
2002:Q4	8.03	ND
2003:Q1	6.92	ND
2003:Q2	6.61	ND
2003:Q3	8.33	ND
2003:Q4	8.47	ND
2004:Q1	8.82	ND
2004:Q2	8.75	ND
2004:Q3	9.90	ND
2004:Q4	9.86	ND
2005:Q1	9.06	ND
2005:Q2	9.95	ND
2005:Q3	10.03	ND
2005:Q4	8.92	ND
2006:Q1	6.90	ND
2006:Q2	3.92	ND
2006:Q3	1.82	ND
2006:Q4	3.21	ND
2007:Q1	3.76	ND
2007:Q2	2.06	ND
2007:Q3	-1.88	ND
2007:Q4	-5.47	ND
2008:Q1	-6.74	ND
2008:Q2	ND	-7.21
2008:Q3	ND	-7.39
2008:Q4	ND	-7.46
2009:Q1	ND	-7.49
2009:Q2	ND	-6.21
2009:Q3	ND	-4.50
2009:Q4	ND	-2.70

Source: OFHEO purchase-only index.

Middle-left panel
Perception of Falling House Prices

Percent of homeowners reporting decline in their house price
Percent of respondents
Period	Past 12 months	Next 12 months
January 2004	6	ND
February 2004	5	ND
March 2004	2	ND
April 2004	3	ND
May 2004	3	ND
June 2004	5	ND
July 2004	6	ND
August 2004	3	ND
September 2004	7	ND
October 2004	4	ND
November 2004	4	ND
December 2004	3	ND
January 2005	4	ND
February 2005	3	ND
March 2005	5	ND
April 2005	3	ND
May 2005	4	ND
June 2005	4	ND
July 2005	4	ND
August 2005	3	ND
September 2005	5	ND
October 2005	3	ND
November 2005	4	ND
December 2005	6	ND
January 2006	3	ND
February 2006	3	ND
March 2006	5	ND
April 2006	5	ND
May 2006	6	ND
June 2006	5	ND
July 2006	7	ND
August 2006	10	ND
September 2006	12	ND
October 2006	16	ND
November 2006	17	ND
December 2006	14	ND
January 2007	13	ND
February 2007	16	ND
March 2007	18	12
April 2007	20	13
May 2007	14	13
June 2007	18	16
July 2007	17	14
August 2007	22	17
September 2007	24	20
October 2007	28	22
November 2007	27	20
December 2007	31	23
January 2008	31	21
February 2008	35	26
March 2008	36	22
April 2008	44	26
May 2008	42	27
June 2008	36	23

Middle-right panel
House Price Overvaluation and Renters' Homebuying Attitudes

House Price Overvaluation
Percent
Period	Estimated overvaluation	Forecast
2001:Q1	2.50	ND
2001:Q2	3.03	ND
2001:Q3	3.18	ND
2001:Q4	3.10	ND
2002:Q1	3.74	ND
2002:Q2	4.63	ND
2002:Q3	5.30	ND
2002:Q4	6.10	ND
2003:Q1	6.68	ND
2003:Q2	7.29	ND
2003:Q3	8.98	ND
2003:Q4	10.17	ND
2004:Q1	11.18	ND
2004:Q2	12.94	ND
2004:Q3	14.12	ND
2004:Q4	15.50	ND
2005:Q1	16.80	ND
2005:Q2	18.26	ND
2005:Q3	19.79	ND
2005:Q4	21.31	ND
2006:Q1	22.09	ND
2006:Q2	22.30	ND
2006:Q3	21.45	ND
2006:Q4	20.59	ND
2007:Q1	20.16	ND
2007:Q2	19.86	ND
2007:Q3	18.53	ND
2007:Q4	15.54	ND
2008:Q1	12.32	ND
2008:Q2	ND	9.74
2008:Q3	ND	7.13
2008:Q4	ND	4.23
2009:Q1	ND	1.29
2009:Q2	ND	-1.27
2009:Q3	ND	-3.42
2009:Q4	ND	-5.06

Source: Staff estimate from model of price-rent ratio.

Renters' Homebuying Attitudes
Percent
Period	Renters saying bad time to buy
2001	22.9
2002	22.1
2003	22.7
2004	29.8
2005	39.9
2006	48.8
2007	47.6
2008:H1	47.7

Source: Reuters/Michigan Survey microdata files.

Bottom-left panel
Sales of Single-family Homes

Millions
Period	New Homes	Existing Homes	New Homes Forecast	Existing Homes Forecast
January 1999	0.88	4.68	ND	ND
February 1999	0.85	4.56	ND	ND
March 1999	0.86	4.60	ND	ND
April 1999	0.92	4.56	ND	ND
May 1999	0.89	4.66	ND	ND
June 1999	0.92	4.87	ND	ND
July 1999	0.90	4.72	ND	ND
August 1999	0.89	4.72	ND	ND
September 1999	0.83	4.60	ND	ND
October 1999	0.87	4.58	ND	ND
November 1999	0.86	4.53	ND	ND
December 1999	0.87	4.55	ND	ND
January 2000	0.87	4.64	ND	ND
February 2000	0.86	4.57	ND	ND
March 2000	0.90	4.64	ND	ND
April 2000	0.84	4.63	ND	ND
May 2000	0.86	4.57	ND	ND
June 2000	0.79	4.57	ND	ND
July 2000	0.89	4.55	ND	ND
August 2000	0.85	4.60	ND	ND
September 2000	0.91	4.69	ND	ND
October 2000	0.93	4.65	ND	ND
November 2000	0.88	4.74	ND	ND
December 2000	0.98	4.52	ND	ND
January 2001	0.94	4.55	ND	ND
February 2001	0.96	4.66	ND	ND
March 2001	0.94	4.83	ND	ND
April 2001	0.91	4.73	ND	ND
May 2001	0.89	4.68	ND	ND
June 2001	0.88	4.82	ND	ND
July 2001	0.88	4.81	ND	ND
August 2001	0.87	4.85	ND	ND
September 2001	0.85	4.63	ND	ND
October 2001	0.87	4.65	ND	ND
November 2001	0.92	4.65	ND	ND
December 2001	0.98	4.86	ND	ND
January 2002	0.88	5.22	ND	ND
February 2002	0.95	5.20	ND	ND
March 2002	0.92	4.98	ND	ND
April 2002	0.94	5.00	ND	ND
May 2002	0.98	4.97	ND	ND
June 2002	0.96	4.86	ND	ND
July 2002	0.96	4.78	ND	ND
August 2002	1.01	4.73	ND	ND
September 2002	1.04	4.87	ND	ND
October 2002	1.01	5.02	ND	ND
November 2002	1.02	5.06	ND	ND
December 2002	1.05	5.28	ND	ND
January 2003	1.00	5.33	ND	ND
February 2003	0.94	5.29	ND	ND
March 2003	1.00	5.17	ND	ND
April 2003	1.01	5.15	ND	ND
May 2003	1.08	5.24	ND	ND
June 2003	1.19	5.24	ND	ND
July 2003	1.17	5.53	ND	ND
August 2003	1.21	5.76	ND	ND
September 2003	1.13	5.80	ND	ND
October 2003	1.14	5.63	ND	ND
November 2003	1.09	5.48	ND	ND
December 2003	1.13	5.70	ND	ND
January 2004	1.17	5.51	ND	ND
February 2004	1.16	5.63	ND	ND
March 2004	1.28	5.86	ND	ND
April 2004	1.19	5.92	ND	ND
May 2004	1.24	6.03	ND	ND
June 2004	1.18	6.09	ND	ND
July 2004	1.09	6.00	ND	ND
August 2004	1.18	5.87	ND	ND
September 2004	1.21	5.88	ND	ND
October 2004	1.31	6.02	ND	ND
November 2004	1.18	6.11	ND	ND
December 2004	1.24	6.05	ND	ND
January 2005	1.20	6.20	ND	ND
February 2005	1.32	6.02	ND	ND
March 2005	1.33	6.10	ND	ND
April 2005	1.26	6.23	ND	ND
May 2005	1.29	6.18	ND	ND
June 2005	1.27	6.25	ND	ND
July 2005	1.39	6.24	ND	ND
August 2005	1.26	6.31	ND	ND
September 2005	1.24	6.34	ND	ND
October 2005	1.34	6.21	ND	ND
November 2005	1.21	6.14	ND	ND
December 2005	1.24	5.95	ND	ND
January 2006	1.17	5.87	ND	ND
February 2006	1.06	6.02	ND	ND
March 2006	1.12	6.01	ND	ND
April 2006	1.12	5.87	ND	ND
May 2006	1.09	5.78	ND	ND
June 2006	1.07	5.68	ND	ND
July 2006	0.97	5.55	ND	ND
August 2006	1.04	5.55	ND	ND
September 2006	1.02	5.51	ND	ND
October 2006	0.94	5.56	ND	ND
November 2006	1.00	5.51	ND	ND
December 2006	1.00	5.53	ND	ND
January 2007	0.87	5.59	ND	ND
February 2007	0.82	5.80	ND	ND
March 2007	0.82	5.33	ND	ND
April 2007	0.91	5.17	ND	ND
May 2007	0.86	5.16	ND	ND
June 2007	0.79	5.01	ND	ND
July 2007	0.80	5.01	ND	ND
August 2007	0.70	4.81	ND	ND
September 2007	0.69	4.45	ND	ND
October 2007	0.72	4.43	ND	ND
November 2007	0.63	4.41	ND	ND
December 2007	0.60	4.32	ND	ND
January 2008	0.60	4.35	ND	ND
February 2008	0.57	4.47	ND	ND
March 2008	0.51	4.36	ND	ND
April 2008	0.53	4.34	ND	ND
May 2008	ND	ND	0.52	4.39
June 2008	ND	ND	0.51	4.50
July 2008	ND	ND	ND	4.50
August 2008	ND	ND	ND	4.47
September 2008	ND	ND	ND	4.40
2008:Q3	ND	ND	0.49	ND
2008:Q4	ND	ND	0.48	4.40
2009:Q1	ND	ND	0.49	4.40
2009:Q2	ND	ND	0.52	4.43
2009:Q3	ND	ND	0.55	4.51
2009:Q4	ND	ND	0.58	4.64

Bottom-right panel
Single-family Housing Starts

Millions of units, annual rate
Period	Starts	Forecast
1999:Q1	1.34	ND
1999:Q2	1.27	ND
1999:Q3	1.29	ND
1999:Q4	1.34	ND
2000:Q1	1.28	ND
2000:Q2	1.24	ND
2000:Q3	1.19	ND
2000:Q4	1.22	ND
2001:Q1	1.26	ND
2001:Q2	1.30	ND
2001:Q3	1.28	ND
2001:Q4	1.26	ND
2002:Q1	1.36	ND
2002:Q2	1.34	ND
2002:Q3	1.34	ND
2002:Q4	1.41	ND
2003:Q1	1.41	ND
2003:Q2	1.43	ND
2003:Q3	1.53	ND
2003:Q4	1.66	ND
2004:Q1	1.56	ND
2004:Q2	1.61	ND
2004:Q3	1.64	ND
2004:Q4	1.61	ND
2005:Q1	1.71	ND
2005:Q2	1.70	ND
2005:Q3	1.75	ND
2005:Q4	1.73	ND
2006:Q1	1.74	ND
2006:Q2	1.51	ND
2006:Q3	1.39	ND
2006:Q4	1.25	ND
2007:Q1	1.16	ND
2007:Q2	1.16	ND
2007:Q3	0.99	ND
2007:Q4	0.83	ND
2008:Q1	0.73	ND
2008:Q2	ND	0.66
2008:Q3	ND	0.58
2008:Q4	ND	0.51
2009:Q1	ND	0.52
2009:Q2	ND	0.55
2009:Q3	ND	0.58
2009:Q4	ND	0.61

Exhibit 9
Consumption and Investment

Top-left panel
Factors Affecting PCE Forecast

Tax rebates push up the third quarter and create a pothole in the fourth quarter
Higher oil prices sap household purchasing power
Hit to household wealth from falling home prices
Restraining effects of financial turmoil and pessimistic consumer sentiment.

Top-right panel
Real PCE

Percent change, Q4/Q4
Period	Real PCE	Forecast
2005	2.77	ND
2006	3.36	ND
2007	2.55	ND
2008	ND	0.49
2009	ND	1.52

Middle-left panel
Factors Affecting E&S Forecast

High-tech investment
- Cautious comments from computer manufacturers.
- Slowing outlays by telecom service providers
Other investment
- Accelerator effects
- Tight lending standards
- Gloomy business sentiment

Middle-right panel
E&S Spending Excluding Transportation

Percent change, Q4/Q4
Period	High-tech (contribution*)	Other (contribution*)	High-tech Forecast	Other Forecast
2005	4.47	4.08	ND	ND
2006	2.67	-0.26	ND	ND
2007	6.07	0.67	ND	ND
2008	ND	ND	1.55	-2.16
2009	ND	ND	1.85	-1.04

* Contribution to E&S growth rate. Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Factors Affecting NRS Forecast

Drilling and mining
- Bottlenecks: shortages of skilled labor and supplies
- Rig count up
- Escalating energy prices
Buildings
- Vacancy rates moving up
- Sales and prices of existing properties sagging
- Financing conditions tight

Bottom-right panel
Nonresidential Structures

Percent change, Q4/Q4
Period	Drilling and Mining (contribution*)	Buildings (contribution*)	Drilling and Mining Forecast	Buildings Forecast
2005	0.70	-0.97	ND	ND
2006	4.31	8.06	ND	ND
2007	4.48	10.87	ND	ND
2008	ND	ND	2.43	-0.45
2009	ND	ND	4.68	-4.22

* Contribution to NRS growth rate. Return to table

Exhibit 10
Aggregate Supply and the Labor Market

Top panel
Staff Assumptions

(Percent change)
		2007	2008	2009
1.	Potential output	2.5	2.5	2.5
2.	(April GB)	(2.4)	(2.3)	(2.2)
3.	Structural productivity	2.1	2.0	2.0
4.	(April GB)	(2.1)	(1.9)	(1.8)
5.	Trend hours	1.0	0.9	0.9
6.	(April GB)	(0.9)	(0.8)	(0.8)
7.	Technical factors	-0.5	-0.4	-0.4

Middle-left panel
Labor Productivity: Nonfarm Business Sector

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Actual	Simulation
2006:Q1	1.40	ND
2006:Q2	1.61	ND
2006:Q3	0.10	ND
2006:Q4	0.85	0.85
2007:Q1	0.62	0.67
2007:Q2	0.95	1.42
2007:Q3	2.85	2.93
2007:Q4	2.94	2.59
2008:Q1	3.33	2.59
2008:Q2	3.23	1.96

Kalman Filter Estimates
Apr. GB	2.1
Jun. GB	2.3

Middle-right panel
Labor Force Participation Rate

Percent
Period	Actual	Simulation
2006:Q1	65.98	ND
2006:Q2	66.09	66.07
2006:Q3	66.11	66.05
2006:Q4	66.22	66.02
2007:Q1	66.16	66.00
2007:Q2	65.95	65.98
2007:Q3	65.91	65.95
2007:Q4	65.91	65.91
2008:Q1	66.00	65.86
2008:Q2	66.08	65.81

Note: Adjusted for changes in population controls.

Bottom-left panel
Payroll Employment

Average monthly change
Thousands
Period	Payroll Employment	Trend	Payroll Employment Forecast	Trend Forecast
2000:Q1	260.33	145.13	ND	ND
2000:Q2	258.56	145.99	ND	ND
2000:Q3	83.33	146.27	ND	ND
2000:Q4	90.44	146.57	ND	ND
2001:Q1	61.22	144.52	ND	ND
2001:Q2	-117.56	144.13	ND	ND
2001:Q3	-137.67	143.68	ND	ND
2001:Q4	-265.00	142.82	ND	ND
2002:Q1	-151.33	121.55	ND	ND
2002:Q2	-46.56	121.42	ND	ND
2002:Q3	-32.78	121.32	ND	ND
2002:Q4	12.44	121.36	ND	ND
2003:Q1	-64.78	114.06	ND	ND
2003:Q2	-82.56	113.85	ND	ND
2003:Q3	9.33	113.87	ND	ND
2003:Q4	103.67	114.14	ND	ND
2004:Q1	120.00	106.84	ND	ND
2004:Q2	239.78	107.43	ND	ND
2004:Q3	126.44	107.74	ND	ND
2004:Q4	198.00	108.23	ND	ND
2005:Q1	140.33	114.67	ND	ND
2005:Q2	228.67	115.27	ND	ND
2005:Q3	259.89	115.94	ND	ND
2005:Q4	180.22	116.41	ND	ND
2006:Q1	240.67	112.06	ND	ND
2006:Q2	152.22	112.44	ND	ND
2006:Q3	171.44	112.86	ND	ND
2006:Q4	144.78	113.22	ND	ND
2007:Q1	131.67	117.07	ND	ND
2007:Q2	105.33	117.34	ND	ND
2007:Q3	86.22	117.56	ND	ND
2007:Q4	90.78	117.80	ND	ND
2008:Q1	-37.78	112.04	ND	ND
2008:Q2	ND	ND	-49.89	111.92
2008:Q3	ND	ND	-32.56	111.81
2008:Q4	ND	ND	-39.75	111.65
2009:Q1	ND	ND	65.21	107.75
2009:Q2	ND	ND	98.04	107.98
2009:Q3	ND	ND	103.89	108.27
2009:Q4	ND	ND	135.74	108.56

Bottom-right panel
Unemployment Rate

Percent
Period	Actual	Forecast
2000:Q1	4.05	ND
2000:Q2	3.95	ND
2000:Q3	4.03	ND
2000:Q4	3.92	ND
2001:Q1	4.23	ND
2001:Q2	4.41	ND
2001:Q3	4.82	ND
2001:Q4	5.54	ND
2002:Q1	5.70	ND
2002:Q2	5.84	ND
2002:Q3	5.73	ND
2002:Q4	5.85	ND
2003:Q1	5.87	ND
2003:Q2	6.15	ND
2003:Q3	6.10	ND
2003:Q4	5.82	ND
2004:Q1	5.68	ND
2004:Q2	5.59	ND
2004:Q3	5.44	ND
2004:Q4	5.39	ND
2005:Q1	5.27	ND
2005:Q2	5.11	ND
2005:Q3	4.98	ND
2005:Q4	4.94	ND
2006:Q1	4.71	ND
2006:Q2	4.67	ND
2006:Q3	4.66	ND
2006:Q4	4.44	ND
2007:Q1	4.50	ND
2007:Q2	4.51	ND
2007:Q3	4.68	ND
2007:Q4	4.80	ND
2008:Q1	4.94	ND
2008:Q2	ND	5.26
2008:Q3	ND	5.50
2008:Q4	ND	5.61
2009:Q1	ND	5.66
2009:Q2	ND	5.67
2009:Q3	ND	5.69
2009:Q4	ND	5.64

Apr.	5.0
May	5.5
Jun.^p	5.3

Exhibit 11
Inflation

Top-left panel
Recent Price Data

(Percent change)
		2008
		Q1^e	Q2^p	April^e	May^e
1.	Total PCE	3.6	4.1	0.2	0.5
2.	(April GB)	(3.5)	(4.3)	(0.3)	(0.6)
3.	Core PCE	2.2	2.0	0.1	0.2
4.	(April GB)	(2.1)	(2.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)

Note: Quarterly figures are at annual rates.

Top-right panel
Total and Core PCE Prices

12-month percent change
Period	Total PCE	Core PCE	Total PCE Forecast	Core PCE Forecast
January 2004	2.11	1.65	ND	ND
February 2004	2.00	1.77	ND	ND
March 2004	1.90	1.89	ND	ND
April 2004	2.35	2.05	ND	ND
May 2004	2.93	2.09	ND	ND
June 2004	3.11	2.21	ND	ND
July 2004	2.92	2.12	ND	ND
August 2004	2.66	2.06	ND	ND
September 2004	2.49	2.12	ND	ND
October 2004	2.99	2.15	ND	ND
November 2004	3.26	2.31	ND	ND
December 2004	3.01	2.24	ND	ND
January 2005	2.76	2.29	ND	ND
February 2005	2.70	2.26	ND	ND
March 2005	2.80	2.27	ND	ND
April 2005	2.98	2.13	ND	ND
May 2005	2.59	2.19	ND	ND
June 2005	2.35	2.07	ND	ND
July 2005	2.72	2.08	ND	ND
August 2005	3.06	2.11	ND	ND
September 2005	3.88	2.16	ND	ND
October 2005	3.60	2.18	ND	ND
November 2005	2.97	2.16	ND	ND
December 2005	2.93	2.19	ND	ND
January 2006	3.26	2.06	ND	ND
February 2006	3.02	2.02	ND	ND
March 2006	2.89	2.04	ND	ND
April 2006	3.00	2.20	ND	ND
May 2006	3.33	2.17	ND	ND
June 2006	3.50	2.34	ND	ND
July 2006	3.38	2.32	ND	ND
August 2006	3.22	2.45	ND	ND
September 2006	1.98	2.44	ND	ND
October 2006	1.51	2.38	ND	ND
November 2006	1.92	2.23	ND	ND
December 2006	2.31	2.26	ND	ND
January 2007	2.14	2.44	ND	ND
February 2007	2.34	2.46	ND	ND
March 2007	2.53	2.26	ND	ND
April 2007	2.32	2.09	ND	ND
May 2007	2.37	2.01	ND	ND
June 2007	2.31	1.91	ND	ND
July 2007	2.12	1.95	ND	ND
August 2007	1.85	1.88	ND	ND
September 2007	2.45	1.94	ND	ND
October 2007	2.97	1.98	ND	ND
November 2007	3.60	2.11	ND	ND
December 2007	3.53	2.15	ND	ND
January 2008	3.51	1.99	ND	ND
February 2008	3.36	1.94	ND	ND
March 2008	3.22	2.06	ND	ND
April 2008	ND	ND	3.16	2.09
May 2008	ND	ND	3.15	2.14
June 2008	ND	ND	3.62	2.19
July 2008	ND	ND	4.11	2.25
August 2008	ND	ND	4.48	2.29
September 2008	ND	ND	4.46	2.24

Middle-left panel
Gasoline and Natural Gas Prices

Period	Retail Gasoline ($/Gallon, ratio scale)	Natural Gas spot ($/Million BTUs, ratio scale)
12 January 2004	1.56	4.68
19 January 2004	1.60	4.75
26 January 2004	1.62	4.73
2 February 2004	1.62	4.65
9 February 2004	1.64	4.72
16 February 2004	1.65	4.75
23 February 2004	1.69	4.73
1 March 2004	1.72	4.91
8 March 2004	1.74	4.86
15 March 2004	1.72	4.86
22 March 2004	1.74	4.79
29 March 2004	1.76	4.69
5 April 2004	1.78	4.73
12 April 2004	1.79	4.74
19 April 2004	1.81	4.77
26 April 2004	1.81	4.81
3 May 2004	1.84	4.86
10 May 2004	1.94	4.93
17 May 2004	2.02	5.06
24 May 2004	2.06	5.10
31 May 2004	2.05	4.96
7 June 2004	2.03	4.90
14 June 2004	1.99	4.80
21 June 2004	1.94	4.80
28 June 2004	1.92	4.77
5 July 2004	1.90	4.69
12 July 2004	1.92	4.75
19 July 2004	1.93	4.83
26 July 2004	1.91	4.86
2 August 2004	1.89	4.97
9 August 2004	1.88	5.20
16 August 2004	1.88	5.18
23 August 2004	1.88	5.14
30 August 2004	1.87	5.15
6 September 2004	1.85	5.17
13 September 2004	1.85	5.22
20 September 2004	1.87	5.21
27 September 2004	1.92	5.29
4 October 2004	1.94	5.28
11 October 2004	1.99	5.24
18 October 2004	2.04	5.26
25 October 2004	2.03	5.56
1 November 2004	2.03	5.79
8 November 2004	2.00	5.69
15 November 2004	1.97	5.48
22 November 2004	1.95	5.48
29 November 2004	1.95	5.57
6 December 2004	1.91	5.32
13 December 2004	1.85	5.33
20 December 2004	1.82	5.39
27 December 2004	1.79	5.40
3 January 2005	1.78	5.26
10 January 2005	1.79	5.32
17 January 2005	1.82	5.35
24 January 2005	1.85	5.35
31 January 2005	1.91	5.41
7 February 2005	1.91	5.42
14 February 2005	1.90	5.42
21 February 2005	1.91	5.42
28 February 2005	1.93	5.60
7 March 2005	2.00	5.71
14 March 2005	2.06	5.70
21 March 2005	2.11	5.93
28 March 2005	2.15	5.95
4 April 2005	2.22	6.05
11 April 2005	2.28	6.15
18 April 2005	2.24	6.00
25 April 2005	2.24	6.19
2 May 2005	2.24	6.07
9 May 2005	2.19	6.11
16 May 2005	2.16	6.23
23 May 2005	2.13	6.33
30 May 2005	2.10	6.43
6 June 2005	2.12	6.55
13 June 2005	2.13	6.57
20 June 2005	2.16	6.70
27 June 2005	2.22	6.67
4 July 2005	2.23	6.99
11 July 2005	2.33	7.23
18 July 2005	2.32	7.06
25 July 2005	2.29	7.05
1 August 2005	2.29	7.17
8 August 2005	2.37	7.28
15 August 2005	2.55	7.39
22 August 2005	2.61	7.45
29 August 2005	2.61	7.68
5 September 2005	3.07	7.86
12 September 2005	2.96	7.83
19 September 2005	2.79	7.68
26 September 2005	2.80	7.83
3 October 2005	2.93	7.63
10 October 2005	2.85	7.47
17 October 2005	2.73	7.52
24 October 2005	2.60	7.52
31 October 2005	2.48	7.46
7 November 2005	2.38	7.45
14 November 2005	2.30	7.44
21 November 2005	2.20	7.63
28 November 2005	2.15	7.70
5 December 2005	2.15	7.32
12 December 2005	2.19	7.30
19 December 2005	2.21	7.45
26 December 2005	2.20	7.68
2 January 2006	2.24	7.83
9 January 2006	2.33	8.31
16 January 2006	2.32	8.55
23 January 2006	2.34	8.87
30 January 2006	2.36	8.70
6 February 2006	2.34	8.39
13 February 2006	2.28	8.37
20 February 2006	2.24	8.06
27 February 2006	2.25	7.88
6 March 2006	2.33	7.81
13 March 2006	2.37	8.02
20 March 2006	2.50	7.96
27 March 2006	2.50	8.02
3 April 2006	2.59	7.79
10 April 2006	2.68	7.85
17 April 2006	2.78	7.95
24 April 2006	2.91	8.01
1 May 2006	2.92	8.38
8 May 2006	2.91	8.40
15 May 2006	2.95	8.51
22 May 2006	2.89	8.44
29 May 2006	2.87	8.33
5 June 2006	2.89	8.56
12 June 2006	2.91	8.45
19 June 2006	2.87	8.44
26 June 2006	2.87	8.33
3 July 2006	2.93	8.54
10 July 2006	2.97	8.63
17 July 2006	2.99	8.87
24 July 2006	3.00	8.96
31 July 2006	3.00	8.72
7 August 2006	3.04	8.59
14 August 2006	3.00	8.48
21 August 2006	2.92	8.36
28 August 2006	2.85	8.44
4 September 2006	2.73	8.37
11 September 2006	2.62	8.36
18 September 2006	2.50	8.28
25 September 2006	2.38	8.07
2 October 2006	2.31	7.86
9 October 2006	2.26	7.76
16 October 2006	2.23	7.71
23 October 2006	2.21	7.65
30 October 2006	2.22	7.35
6 November 2006	2.20	7.34
13 November 2006	2.23	7.46
20 November 2006	2.24	7.52
27 November 2006	2.25	7.52
4 December 2006	2.30	7.23
11 December 2006	2.29	7.15
18 December 2006	2.32	7.11
25 December 2006	2.34	7.02
1 January 2007	2.33	6.99
8 January 2007	2.31	7.13
15 January 2007	2.23	7.44
22 January 2007	2.17	7.46
29 January 2007	2.17	7.41
5 February 2007	2.19	7.50
12 February 2007	2.24	7.73
19 February 2007	2.30	7.85
26 February 2007	2.38	7.79
5 March 2007	2.51	7.94
12 March 2007	2.56	7.94
19 March 2007	2.58	7.86
26 March 2007	2.61	7.94
2 April 2007	2.71	8.05
9 April 2007	2.80	8.04
16 April 2007	2.88	8.16
23 April 2007	2.87	8.17
30 April 2007	2.97	8.35
7 May 2007	3.05	8.33
14 May 2007	3.10	8.38
21 May 2007	3.22	8.33
28 May 2007	3.21	8.35
4 June 2007	3.16	8.37
11 June 2007	3.08	8.22
18 June 2007	3.01	8.33
25 June 2007	2.98	8.35
2 July 2007	2.96	8.33
9 July 2007	2.98	8.19
16 July 2007	3.05	8.02
23 July 2007	2.96	8.06
30 July 2007	2.88	8.14
6 August 2007	2.84	8.18
13 August 2007	2.77	8.20
20 August 2007	2.79	8.05
27 August 2007	2.75	7.94
3 September 2007	2.80	7.99
10 September 2007	2.82	8.08
17 September 2007	2.79	8.06
24 September 2007	2.81	8.02
1 October 2007	2.79	7.98
8 October 2007	2.77	7.94
15 October 2007	2.76	7.96
22 October 2007	2.82	8.18
29 October 2007	2.87	8.27
5 November 2007	3.01	8.33
12 November 2007	3.11	8.30
19 November 2007	3.10	8.31
26 November 2007	3.10	8.37
3 December 2007	3.06	8.36
10 December 2007	3.00	8.38
17 December 2007	3.00	8.49
24 December 2007	2.98	8.59
31 December 2007	3.05	8.72
7 January 2008	3.11	8.53
14 January 2008	3.07	8.48
21 January 2008	3.02	8.58
28 January 2008	2.98	8.35
4 February 2008	2.98	8.39
11 February 2008	2.96	8.58
18 February 2008	3.04	8.78
25 February 2008	3.13	9.15
3 March 2008	3.16	9.77
10 March 2008	3.23	10.39
17 March 2008	3.28	10.82
24 March 2008	3.26	10.85
31 March 2008	3.29	10.84
7 April 2008	3.33	10.64
14 April 2008	3.39	10.61
21 April 2008	3.51	10.36
28 April 2008	3.60	10.56
5 May 2008	3.61	10.42
12 May 2008	3.72	10.46
19 May 2008	3.79	10.59
26 May 2008	3.94	11.76
2 June 2008	3.98	11.85
9 June 2008	4.04	12.30
16 June 2008	4.08	12.86
23 June 2008	4.08	13.04

Middle-right panel
Spot and Futures Prices for Food Commodities

Index, 1987:Q4 = 100, ratio scale
Period	Livestock	Livestock April GB	Livestock Forecast	Crops	Crops April GB	Crops Forecast
2004:Q1	117.96	ND	ND	138.19	ND	ND
2004:Q2	134.78	ND	ND	145.83	ND	ND
2004:Q3	130.28	ND	ND	121.40	ND	ND
2004:Q4	129.29	ND	ND	104.68	ND	ND
2005:Q1	131.31	ND	ND	100.19	ND	ND
2005:Q2	128.96	ND	ND	105.38	ND	ND
2005:Q3	120.68	ND	ND	111.05	ND	ND
2005:Q4	126.99	ND	ND	105.22	ND	ND
2006:Q1	124.69	ND	ND	109.25	ND	ND
2006:Q2	113.39	ND	ND	112.01	ND	ND
2006:Q3	116.53	ND	ND	114.79	ND	ND
2006:Q4	123.43	ND	ND	142.38	ND	ND
2007:Q1	128.56	ND	ND	159.92	ND	ND
2007:Q2	140.52	ND	ND	153.56	ND	ND
2007:Q3	147.11	ND	ND	164.62	ND	ND
2007:Q4	144.06	ND	ND	192.44	ND	ND
2008:Q1	138.69	138.57	ND	254.55	254.89	ND
2008:Q2	ND	140.46	143.14	ND	258.13	270.15
2008:Q3	ND	149.05	157.97	ND	261.22	304.85
2008:Q4	ND	153.62	167.07	ND	261.95	312.67
2009:Q1	ND	155.66	170.64	ND	260.34	312.97
2009:Q2	ND	155.97	173.18	ND	ND	314.07
2009:Q3	ND	ND	172.70	ND	ND	313.23
2009:Q4	ND	ND	173.92	ND	ND	299.66

Bottom-left panel
PCE Energy Prices

Four-quarter percent change
Period	PCE Energy Prices	April GB	Forecast
2004:Q1	3.53	ND	ND
2004:Q2	13.08	ND	ND
2004:Q3	11.02	ND	ND
2004:Q4	18.27	ND	ND
2005:Q1	11.48	ND	ND
2005:Q2	11.51	ND	ND
2005:Q3	23.83	ND	ND
2005:Q4	21.12	ND	ND
2006:Q1	20.29	ND	ND
2006:Q2	22.09	ND	ND
2006:Q3	10.23	ND	ND
2006:Q4	-4.03	ND	ND
2007:Q1	0.49	ND	ND
2007:Q2	4.00	ND	ND
2007:Q3	0.94	ND	ND
2007:Q4	19.58	ND	ND
2008:Q1	20.22	20.25	ND
2008:Q2	ND	17.02	15.17
2008:Q3	ND	22.99	32.15
2008:Q4	ND	16.17	28.04
2009:Q1	ND	11.11	23.77
2009:Q2	ND	2.38	16.49
2009:Q3	ND	-1.31	3.18
2009:Q4	ND	-1.40	0.80

Bottom-right panel
PCE Food Prices

Four-quarter percent change
Period	PCE Food Prices	April GB	Forecast
2004:Q1	2.94	ND	ND
2004:Q2	3.31	ND	ND
2004:Q3	3.26	ND	ND
2004:Q4	2.87	ND	ND
2005:Q1	2.42	ND	ND
2005:Q2	2.40	ND	ND
2005:Q3	2.15	ND	ND
2005:Q4	2.23	ND	ND
2006:Q1	2.57	ND	ND
2006:Q2	1.99	ND	ND
2006:Q3	2.39	ND	ND
2006:Q4	2.28	ND	ND
2007:Q1	2.88	ND	ND
2007:Q2	3.66	ND	ND
2007:Q3	4.09	ND	ND
2007:Q4	4.53	ND	ND
2008:Q1	4.56	4.54	ND
2008:Q2	ND	3.98	5.03
2008:Q3	ND	3.35	4.57
2008:Q4	ND	3.05	4.29
2009:Q1	ND	2.44	3.69
2009:Q2	ND	2.37	2.64
2009:Q3	ND	2.30	2.45
2009:Q4	ND	2.16	2.34

Exhibit 12
Indicators of Input Costs

Top-left panel
Intermediate Materials Prices

Period	Core PPI (12-month percent change)	ISM prices paid* (Diffusion index)
January 2002	-1.82	34.67
February 2002	-1.97	38.33
March 2002	-1.82	44.67
April 2002	-1.46	51.67
May 2002	-1.46	59.50
June 2002	-1.02	64.67
July 2002	-0.37	66.33
August 2002	0.22	65.67
September 2002	0.52	65.17
October 2002	0.96	62.50
November 2002	1.26	59.17
December 2002	1.49	55.83
January 2003	1.86	55.17
February 2003	2.60	59.33
March 2003	2.74	64.33
April 2003	2.22	66.33
May 2003	2.29	61.67
June 2003	1.99	57.17
July 2003	1.69	53.67
August 2003	1.62	54.17
September 2003	1.61	54.00
October 2003	1.76	55.83
November 2003	1.83	59.50
December 2003	2.12	62.83
January 2004	2.41	68.50
February 2004	2.61	74.33
March 2004	3.03	81.00
April 2004	4.48	85.17
May 2004	5.20	86.67
June 2004	5.64	85.00
July 2004	6.15	81.33
August 2004	7.15	79.83
September 2004	7.79	78.17
October 2004	7.99	78.67
November 2004	8.19	76.17
December 2004	8.32	74.83
January 2005	8.48	71.67
February 2005	8.05	68.83
March 2005	7.63	69.17
April 2005	6.43	69.83
May 2005	5.35	67.33
June 2005	4.86	59.83
July 2005	4.56	52.33
August 2005	3.37	53.83
September 2005	3.61	63.00
October 2005	4.66	74.83
November 2005	4.71	78.67
December 2005	4.77	73.67
January 2006	4.86	67.33
February 2006	4.70	63.50
March 2006	4.68	64.67
April 2006	5.26	66.83
May 2006	6.64	71.67
June 2006	7.44	75.00
July 2006	7.88	77.33
August 2006	8.41	76.00
September 2006	7.23	70.83
October 2006	5.67	60.33
November 2006	4.82	53.83
December 2006	4.49	49.33
January 2007	3.63	51.33
February 2007	3.24	53.17
March 2007	3.23	59.17
April 2007	3.52	65.83
May 2007	2.99	69.83
June 2007	2.61	70.67
July 2007	2.42	68.00
August 2007	1.56	65.33
September 2007	1.69	62.33
October 2007	2.11	61.67
November 2007	3.33	63.17
December 2007	3.33	66.17
January 2008	4.23	70.50
February 2008	4.83	73.17
March 2008	5.48	78.33
April 2008	5.84	81.17
May 2008	7.35	85.00

* Three-month moving average; manufacturing firms. Return to table

Top-right panel
Core Nonfuel Import Prices

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Core Nonfuel Import Prices	April GB	Forecast
2002:Q1	-2.71	ND	ND
2002:Q2	-1.95	ND	ND
2002:Q3	-0.67	ND	ND
2002:Q4	0.11	ND	ND
2003:Q1	1.19	ND	ND
2003:Q2	1.22	ND	ND
2003:Q3	1.16	ND	ND
2003:Q4	1.61	ND	ND
2004:Q1	2.36	ND	ND
2004:Q2	3.16	ND	ND
2004:Q3	3.40	ND	ND
2004:Q4	3.58	ND	ND
2005:Q1	3.49	ND	ND
2005:Q2	2.87	ND	ND
2005:Q3	2.24	ND	ND
2005:Q4	2.22	ND	ND
2006:Q1	1.29	ND	ND
2006:Q2	1.69	ND	ND
2006:Q3	2.75	ND	ND
2006:Q4	2.40	ND	ND
2007:Q1	2.77	ND	ND
2007:Q2	2.85	ND	ND
2007:Q3	2.65	ND	ND
2007:Q4	3.30	3.30	ND
2008:Q1	4.69	4.50	ND
2008:Q2	ND	5.11	6.40
2008:Q3	ND	5.09	6.28
2008:Q4	ND	4.60	5.78
2009:Q1	ND	3.10	4.10
2009:Q2	ND	1.93	1.89
2009:Q3	ND	1.47	1.58
2009:Q4	ND	1.27	1.40

Middle-left panel
Transportation Costs

12-month percent change
Period	Rail transport	Trucking
January 2002	2.21	0.73
February 2002	2.41	0.65
March 2002	2.21	0.57
April 2002	2.51	0.81
May 2002	2.60	0.89
June 2002	2.50	0.97
July 2002	2.59	0.89
August 2002	2.30	1.21
September 2002	1.04	1.13
October 2002	0.95	1.53
November 2002	1.32	2.02
December 2002	1.23	2.27
January 2003	1.04	2.67
February 2003	1.13	2.83
March 2003	1.88	3.23
April 2003	2.63	2.98
May 2003	2.07	2.81
June 2003	2.44	2.57
July 2003	2.25	3.13
August 2003	2.35	2.79
September 2003	2.44	2.95
October 2003	2.43	2.54
November 2003	2.15	2.38
December 2003	2.33	2.38
January 2004	2.98	2.30
February 2004	2.98	2.69
March 2004	2.95	2.49
April 2004	2.47	2.79
May 2004	3.31	3.42
June 2004	3.11	4.13
July 2004	3.75	3.96
August 2004	4.03	4.02
September 2004	4.94	4.58
October 2004	5.67	5.16
November 2004	6.40	5.60
December 2004	7.30	5.50
January 2005	7.06	5.58
February 2005	6.96	4.95
March 2005	7.53	5.53
April 2005	8.32	5.91
May 2005	10.69	5.67
June 2005	10.83	5.53
July 2005	10.24	5.51
August 2005	11.19	5.50
September 2005	11.42	5.93
October 2005	12.98	6.76
November 2005	14.26	5.97
December 2005	13.18	5.40
January 2006	11.50	5.00
February 2006	10.81	4.81
March 2006	10.93	4.49
April 2006	10.07	4.37
May 2006	8.53	5.00
June 2006	10.02	4.69
July 2006	11.21	4.49
August 2006	10.22	4.84
September 2006	9.15	3.52
October 2006	6.74	1.52
November 2006	2.86	1.43
December 2006	1.80	2.07
January 2007	3.18	2.25
February 2007	4.27	2.07
March 2007	1.88	2.06
April 2007	2.55	2.40
May 2007	2.37	1.67
June 2007	2.69	1.49
July 2007	1.44	1.14
August 2007	2.52	0.70
September 2007	3.30	0.79
October 2007	3.80	2.02
November 2007	7.09	3.17
December 2007	9.23	3.79
January 2008	11.76	4.57
February 2008	11.33	4.67
March 2008	12.92	5.09
April 2008	12.58	6.17
May 2008	13.25	7.80

Note: Producer price indexes.

Middle-right panel
Direct Effects of Commodity and Import Prices on Core Inflation

Percentage points
Period	Energy	Imports and Other Commodities	Energy Forecast	Imports and Other Commodities Forecast
2005	0.25	0.05	ND	ND
2006	0.20	0.05	ND	ND
2007	0.10	0.10	ND	ND
2008	ND	ND	0.30	0.35
2009	ND	ND	0.25	0.00

Bottom-left panel
Labor Compensation

Percent change from year earlier
Period	NFB Compensation Per Hour	Employment Cost Index	Average Hourly Earnings	NFB Compensation Per Hour Forecast	Employment Cost Index Forecast	Average Hourly Earnings Forecast
2002:Q1	3.50	3.80	2.97	ND	ND	ND
2002:Q2	4.00	4.00	2.67	ND	ND	ND
2002:Q3	3.90	3.50	2.90	ND	ND	ND
2002:Q4	3.20	3.10	3.06	ND	ND	ND
2003:Q1	3.00	3.60	3.22	ND	ND	ND
2003:Q2	3.50	3.50	2.96	ND	ND	ND
2003:Q3	4.40	3.90	2.60	ND	ND	ND
2003:Q4	5.30	4.00	1.98	ND	ND	ND
2004:Q1	3.80	3.80	1.79	ND	ND	ND
2004:Q2	3.40	3.90	2.02	ND	ND	ND
2004:Q3	3.40	3.80	2.18	ND	ND	ND
2004:Q4	3.90	3.80	2.50	ND	ND	ND
2005:Q1	4.80	3.50	2.57	ND	ND	ND
2005:Q2	3.90	3.10	2.64	ND	ND	ND
2005:Q3	4.00	2.90	2.71	ND	ND	ND
2005:Q4	3.40	2.90	3.03	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q1	4.20	2.60	3.45	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q2	3.80	2.80	3.93	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q3	2.70	3.00	4.06	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q4	5.00	3.20	4.14	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q1	4.90	3.20	4.16	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q2	5.30	3.10	4.00	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q3	5.80	3.10	4.06	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q4	4.38	3.00	3.76	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q1	4.01	3.20	3.69	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q2	ND	ND	ND	4.66	3.23	3.43
2008:Q3	ND	ND	ND	4.81	3.34	3.34
2008:Q4	ND	ND	ND	4.14	3.36	3.51
2009:Q1	ND	ND	ND	3.95	3.45	3.43
2009:Q2	ND	ND	ND	4.01	3.47	3.53
2009:Q3	ND	ND	ND	4.05	3.44	3.47
2009:Q4	ND	ND	ND	4.11	3.42	3.42

Bottom-right panel
Unit Labor Costs*

Percent change, Q4/Q4
	Actual	Trend
2006	4.2	2.9
2007	1.4	2.3
2008^p	2.3	2.1
2009^p	2.0	2.1

* Nonfarm business sector. Return to text

Exhibit 13
Inflation Projection

Top-left panel
Short-Run Inflation Expectations

Reuters/Michigan Survey*
Period	Percent
January 2004	2.7
February 2004	2.6
March 2004	2.9
April 2004	3.2
May 2004	3.3
June 2004	3.3
July 2004	3.0
August 2004	2.8
September 2004	2.8
October 2004	3.1
November 2004	2.8
December 2004	3.0
January 2005	2.9
February 2005	2.9
March 2005	3.2
April 2005	3.3
May 2005	3.2
June 2005	3.2
July 2005	3.0
August 2005	3.1
September 2005	4.3
October 2005	4.6
November 2005	3.3
December 2005	3.1
January 2006	3.0
February 2006	3.0
March 2006	3.0
April 2006	3.3
May 2006	4.0
June 2006	3.3
July 2006	3.2
August 2006	3.8
September 2006	3.1
October 2006	3.1
November 2006	3.0
December 2006	2.9
January 2007	3.0
February 2007	3.0
March 2007	3.0
April 2007	3.3
May 2007	3.3
June 2007	3.4
July 2007	3.4
August 2007	3.2
September 2007	3.1
October 2007	3.1
November 2007	3.4
December 2007	3.4
January 2008	3.4
February 2008	3.6
March 2008	4.3
April 2008	4.8
May 2008	5.2
June 2008	5.1

* Next 12 months. Return to table

Survey of Professional Forecasters*
Period	Percent
2004:Q1	1.63
2004:Q2	2.13
2004:Q3	2.30
2004:Q4	2.26
2005:Q1	2.25
2005:Q2	2.37
2005:Q3	2.44
2005:Q4	2.39
2006:Q1	2.43
2006:Q2	2.39
2006:Q3	2.63
2006:Q4	2.62
2007:Q1	2.46
2007:Q2	2.43
2007:Q3	2.23
2007:Q4	2.44
2008:Q1	2.38
2008:Q2	2.67

* Next 12 months. Return to table

Top-right panel
Long-Run Inflation Expectations

Reuters/Michigan Survey*
Period	Percent
January 2004	2.8
February 2004	2.9
March 2004	2.9
April 2004	2.7
May 2004	2.8
June 2004	2.9
July 2004	2.8
August 2004	2.7
September 2004	2.8
October 2004	2.8
November 2004	2.7
December 2004	2.8
January 2005	2.7
February 2005	2.8
March 2005	2.9
April 2005	3.0
May 2005	2.9
June 2005	2.8
July 2005	2.9
August 2005	2.8
September 2005	3.1
October 2005	3.2
November 2005	3.0
December 2005	3.1
January 2006	2.9
February 2006	2.9
March 2006	2.9
April 2006	3.1
May 2006	3.2
June 2006	2.9
July 2006	2.9
August 2006	3.2
September 2006	3.0
October 2006	3.1
November 2006	3.0
December 2006	3.0
January 2007	3.0
February 2007	2.9
March 2007	2.9
April 2007	3.1
May 2007	3.1
June 2007	2.9
July 2007	3.1
August 2007	2.9
September 2007	2.9
October 2007	2.8
November 2007	2.9
December 2007	3.1
January 2008	3.0
February 2008	3.0
March 2008	2.9
April 2008	3.2
May 2008	3.4
June 2008	3.4

* Five-to-ten years ahead. Return to table

Survey of Professional Forecasters**
Period	Percent
2004:Q1	2.50
2004:Q2	2.50
2004:Q3	2.50
2004:Q4	2.50
2005:Q1	2.45
2005:Q2	2.50
2005:Q3	2.50
2005:Q4	2.50
2006:Q1	2.50
2006:Q2	2.50
2006:Q3	2.50
2006:Q4	2.50
2007:Q1	2.35
2007:Q2	2.40
2007:Q3	2.40
2007:Q4	2.40
2008:Q1	2.50
2008:Q2	2.50

** Next ten years. Return to table

TIPS inflation compensation*
Date	Percent
2 January 2004	3.07
5 January 2004	3.10
6 January 2004	3.05
7 January 2004	3.03
8 January 2004	3.04
9 January 2004	2.96
12 January 2004	2.94
13 January 2004	2.94
14 January 2004	2.82
15 January 2004	2.77
16 January 2004	2.84
19 January 2004	ND
20 January 2004	2.85
21 January 2004	2.88
22 January 2004	2.85
23 January 2004	2.88
26 January 2004	2.90
27 January 2004	2.91
28 January 2004	2.90
29 January 2004	2.94
30 January 2004	2.89
2 February 2004	2.90
3 February 2004	2.90
4 February 2004	2.91
5 February 2004	2.88
6 February 2004	2.89
9 February 2004	2.90
10 February 2004	2.89
11 February 2004	2.86
12 February 2004	2.88
13 February 2004	2.83
16 February 2004	ND
17 February 2004	2.81
18 February 2004	2.83
19 February 2004	2.79
20 February 2004	2.79
23 February 2004	2.78
24 February 2004	2.79
25 February 2004	2.82
26 February 2004	2.87
27 February 2004	2.84
1 March 2004	2.91
2 March 2004	2.94
3 March 2004	2.98
4 March 2004	2.97
5 March 2004	2.89
8 March 2004	2.87
9 March 2004	2.85
10 March 2004	2.82
11 March 2004	2.80
12 March 2004	2.79
15 March 2004	2.81
16 March 2004	2.81
17 March 2004	2.83
18 March 2004	2.84
19 March 2004	2.82
22 March 2004	2.79
23 March 2004	2.79
24 March 2004	2.82
25 March 2004	2.86
26 March 2004	2.92
29 March 2004	2.98
30 March 2004	2.98
31 March 2004	2.94
1 April 2004	2.98
2 April 2004	3.05
5 April 2004	3.08
6 April 2004	3.05
7 April 2004	2.99
8 April 2004	3.01
9 April 2004	ND
12 April 2004	3.05
13 April 2004	3.09
14 April 2004	3.09
15 April 2004	3.07
16 April 2004	3.10
19 April 2004	3.10
20 April 2004	3.06
21 April 2004	3.03
22 April 2004	2.97
23 April 2004	2.95
26 April 2004	2.99
27 April 2004	3.00
28 April 2004	2.94
29 April 2004	2.91
30 April 2004	2.93
3 May 2004	2.94
4 May 2004	2.98
5 May 2004	3.00
6 May 2004	3.00
7 May 2004	3.09
10 May 2004	3.13
11 May 2004	3.15
12 May 2004	3.22
13 May 2004	3.27
14 May 2004	3.23
17 May 2004	3.24
18 May 2004	3.28
19 May 2004	3.36
20 May 2004	3.34
21 May 2004	3.31
24 May 2004	3.30
25 May 2004	3.28
26 May 2004	3.24
27 May 2004	3.22
28 May 2004	3.23
31 May 2004	ND
1 June 2004	3.32
2 June 2004	3.28
3 June 2004	3.23
4 June 2004	3.24
7 June 2004	3.24
8 June 2004	3.18
9 June 2004	3.18
10 June 2004	3.16
11 June 2004	ND
14 June 2004	3.14
15 June 2004	3.01
16 June 2004	3.04
17 June 2004	3.03
18 June 2004	3.05
21 June 2004	3.03
22 June 2004	3.04
23 June 2004	3.03
24 June 2004	3.02
25 June 2004	3.02
28 June 2004	3.03
29 June 2004	3.03
30 June 2004	3.06
1 July 2004	3.10
2 July 2004	3.09
5 July 2004	ND
6 July 2004	3.05
7 July 2004	3.03
8 July 2004	2.98
9 July 2004	2.98
12 July 2004	2.96
13 July 2004	2.96
14 July 2004	2.97
15 July 2004	2.97
16 July 2004	2.91
19 July 2004	2.90
20 July 2004	2.90
21 July 2004	2.94
22 July 2004	2.94
23 July 2004	2.92
26 July 2004	2.94
27 July 2004	2.97
28 July 2004	3.02
29 July 2004	3.03
30 July 2004	2.96
2 August 2004	2.97
3 August 2004	2.96
4 August 2004	2.92
5 August 2004	2.93
6 August 2004	2.89
9 August 2004	2.90
10 August 2004	2.89
11 August 2004	2.91
12 August 2004	2.96
13 August 2004	2.92
16 August 2004	2.93
17 August 2004	2.88
18 August 2004	2.90
19 August 2004	2.95
20 August 2004	2.94
23 August 2004	2.95
24 August 2004	2.95
25 August 2004	2.93
26 August 2004	2.91
27 August 2004	2.90
30 August 2004	2.87
31 August 2004	2.89
1 September 2004	2.87
2 September 2004	2.89
3 September 2004	2.89
6 September 2004	ND
7 September 2004	2.88
8 September 2004	2.85
9 September 2004	2.88
10 September 2004	2.86
13 September 2004	2.83
14 September 2004	2.83
15 September 2004	2.82
16 September 2004	2.78
17 September 2004	2.78
20 September 2004	2.78
21 September 2004	2.73
22 September 2004	2.72
23 September 2004	2.69
24 September 2004	2.69
27 September 2004	2.70
28 September 2004	2.74
29 September 2004	2.74
30 September 2004	2.77
1 October 2004	2.76
4 October 2004	2.72
5 October 2004	2.74
6 October 2004	2.72
7 October 2004	2.80
8 October 2004	2.79
11 October 2004	ND
12 October 2004	2.80
13 October 2004	2.79
14 October 2004	2.77
15 October 2004	2.77
18 October 2004	2.76
19 October 2004	2.75
20 October 2004	2.70
21 October 2004	2.68
22 October 2004	2.65
25 October 2004	2.64
26 October 2004	2.63
27 October 2004	2.63
28 October 2004	2.71
29 October 2004	2.70
1 November 2004	2.72
2 November 2004	2.76
3 November 2004	2.78
4 November 2004	2.73
5 November 2004	2.76
8 November 2004	2.80
9 November 2004	2.79
10 November 2004	2.82
11 November 2004	ND
12 November 2004	2.77
15 November 2004	2.81
16 November 2004	2.76
17 November 2004	2.73
18 November 2004	2.76
19 November 2004	2.79
22 November 2004	2.83
23 November 2004	2.78
24 November 2004	2.78
25 November 2004	ND
26 November 2004	2.83
29 November 2004	2.82
30 November 2004	2.84
1 December 2004	2.84
2 December 2004	2.86
3 December 2004	2.85
6 December 2004	2.82
7 December 2004	2.81
8 December 2004	2.78
9 December 2004	2.81
10 December 2004	2.77
13 December 2004	2.78
14 December 2004	2.79
15 December 2004	2.79
16 December 2004	2.84
17 December 2004	2.86
20 December 2004	2.87
21 December 2004	2.92
22 December 2004	2.91
23 December 2004	2.94
24 December 2004	ND
27 December 2004	2.98
28 December 2004	2.96
29 December 2004	2.93
30 December 2004	2.91
31 December 2004	2.87
3 January 2005	2.77
4 January 2005	2.79
5 January 2005	2.75
6 January 2005	2.77
7 January 2005	2.73
10 January 2005	2.71
11 January 2005	2.67
12 January 2005	2.68
13 January 2005	2.67
14 January 2005	2.70
17 January 2005	ND
18 January 2005	2.69
19 January 2005	2.70
20 January 2005	2.72
21 January 2005	2.70
24 January 2005	2.67
25 January 2005	2.64
26 January 2005	2.66
27 January 2005	2.68
28 January 2005	2.68
31 January 2005	2.67
1 February 2005	2.67
2 February 2005	2.59
3 February 2005	2.56
4 February 2005	2.54
7 February 2005	2.52
8 February 2005	2.53
9 February 2005	2.57
10 February 2005	2.56
11 February 2005	2.59
14 February 2005	2.58
15 February 2005	2.56
16 February 2005	2.56
17 February 2005	2.60
18 February 2005	2.66
21 February 2005	ND
22 February 2005	2.65
23 February 2005	2.66
24 February 2005	2.68
25 February 2005	2.66
28 February 2005	2.69
1 March 2005	2.73
2 March 2005	2.76
3 March 2005	2.77
4 March 2005	2.71
7 March 2005	2.72
8 March 2005	2.75
9 March 2005	2.81
10 March 2005	2.77
11 March 2005	2.80
14 March 2005	2.78
15 March 2005	2.83
16 March 2005	2.81
17 March 2005	2.83
18 March 2005	2.83
21 March 2005	2.83
22 March 2005	2.81
23 March 2005	2.78
24 March 2005	2.80
25 March 2005	ND
28 March 2005	2.78
29 March 2005	2.77
30 March 2005	2.73
31 March 2005	2.75
1 April 2005	2.76
4 April 2005	2.75
5 April 2005	2.73
6 April 2005	2.73
7 April 2005	2.72
8 April 2005	2.70
11 April 2005	2.69
12 April 2005	2.71
13 April 2005	2.76
14 April 2005	2.79
15 April 2005	2.76
18 April 2005	2.74
19 April 2005	2.70
20 April 2005	2.73
21 April 2005	2.74
22 April 2005	2.70
25 April 2005	2.64
26 April 2005	2.66
27 April 2005	2.62
28 April 2005	2.65
29 April 2005	2.64
2 May 2005	2.64
3 May 2005	2.63
4 May 2005	2.65
5 May 2005	2.65
6 May 2005	2.66
9 May 2005	2.67
10 May 2005	2.64
11 May 2005	2.63
12 May 2005	2.63
13 May 2005	2.60
16 May 2005	2.61
17 May 2005	2.60
18 May 2005	2.54
19 May 2005	2.52
20 May 2005	2.56
23 May 2005	2.54
24 May 2005	2.53
25 May 2005	2.54
26 May 2005	2.51
27 May 2005	2.53
30 May 2005	ND
31 May 2005	2.47
1 June 2005	2.47
2 June 2005	2.45
3 June 2005	2.50
6 June 2005	2.47
7 June 2005	2.44
8 June 2005	2.45
9 June 2005	2.44
10 June 2005	2.44
13 June 2005	2.45
14 June 2005	2.47
15 June 2005	2.49
16 June 2005	2.48
17 June 2005	2.46
20 June 2005	2.47
21 June 2005	2.43
22 June 2005	2.37
23 June 2005	2.37
24 June 2005	2.36
27 June 2005	2.36
28 June 2005	2.38
29 June 2005	2.40
30 June 2005	2.34
1 July 2005	2.39
4 July 2005	ND
5 July 2005	2.41
6 July 2005	2.38
7 July 2005	2.35
8 July 2005	2.35
11 July 2005	2.37
12 July 2005	2.39
13 July 2005	2.37
14 July 2005	2.35
15 July 2005	2.34
18 July 2005	2.37
19 July 2005	2.42
20 July 2005	2.41
21 July 2005	2.47
22 July 2005	2.46
25 July 2005	2.42
26 July 2005	2.43
27 July 2005	2.47
28 July 2005	2.44
29 July 2005	2.50
1 August 2005	2.47
2 August 2005	2.46
3 August 2005	2.47
4 August 2005	2.49
5 August 2005	2.48
8 August 2005	2.49
9 August 2005	2.47
10 August 2005	2.51
11 August 2005	2.48
12 August 2005	2.43
15 August 2005	2.47
16 August 2005	2.46
17 August 2005	2.52
18 August 2005	2.48
19 August 2005	2.50
22 August 2005	2.47
23 August 2005	2.49
24 August 2005	2.51
25 August 2005	2.46
26 August 2005	2.47
29 August 2005	2.48
30 August 2005	2.50
31 August 2005	2.40
1 September 2005	2.45
2 September 2005	2.49
5 September 2005	ND
6 September 2005	2.51
7 September 2005	2.54
8 September 2005	2.51
9 September 2005	2.48
12 September 2005	2.51
13 September 2005	2.50
14 September 2005	2.53
15 September 2005	2.56
16 September 2005	2.59
19 September 2005	2.61
20 September 2005	2.58
21 September 2005	2.52
22 September 2005	2.55
23 September 2005	2.57
26 September 2005	2.60
27 September 2005	2.60
28 September 2005	2.61
29 September 2005	2.62
30 September 2005	2.61
3 October 2005	2.59
4 October 2005	2.58
5 October 2005	2.58
6 October 2005	2.55
7 October 2005	2.54
10 October 2005	ND
11 October 2005	2.49
12 October 2005	2.50
13 October 2005	2.58
14 October 2005	2.56
17 October 2005	2.60
18 October 2005	2.63
19 October 2005	2.62
20 October 2005	2.61
21 October 2005	2.56
24 October 2005	2.58
25 October 2005	2.61
26 October 2005	2.66
27 October 2005	2.66
28 October 2005	2.68
31 October 2005	2.69
1 November 2005	2.73
2 November 2005	2.75
3 November 2005	2.79
4 November 2005	2.80
7 November 2005	2.76
8 November 2005	2.71
9 November 2005	2.74
10 November 2005	2.68
11 November 2005	ND
14 November 2005	2.64
15 November 2005	2.62
16 November 2005	2.61
17 November 2005	2.61
18 November 2005	2.59
21 November 2005	2.57
22 November 2005	2.57
23 November 2005	2.56
24 November 2005	ND
25 November 2005	2.51
28 November 2005	2.54
29 November 2005	2.56
30 November 2005	2.60
1 December 2005	2.57
2 December 2005	2.56
5 December 2005	2.57
6 December 2005	2.53
7 December 2005	2.54
8 December 2005	2.53
9 December 2005	2.54
12 December 2005	2.58
13 December 2005	2.59
14 December 2005	2.52
15 December 2005	2.51
16 December 2005	2.52
19 December 2005	2.53
20 December 2005	2.53
21 December 2005	2.53
22 December 2005	2.48
23 December 2005	2.48
26 December 2005	ND
27 December 2005	2.45
28 December 2005	2.45
29 December 2005	2.43
30 December 2005	2.44
2 January 2006	ND
3 January 2006	2.47
4 January 2006	2.48
5 January 2006	2.46
6 January 2006	2.44
9 January 2006	2.43
10 January 2006	2.47
11 January 2006	2.50
12 January 2006	2.52
13 January 2006	2.50
16 January 2006	ND
17 January 2006	2.51
18 January 2006	2.53
19 January 2006	2.54
20 January 2006	2.55
23 January 2006	2.51
24 January 2006	2.50
25 January 2006	2.52
26 January 2006	2.56
27 January 2006	2.58
30 January 2006	2.58
31 January 2006	2.60
1 February 2006	2.59
2 February 2006	2.58
3 February 2006	2.56
6 February 2006	2.56
7 February 2006	2.58
8 February 2006	2.56
9 February 2006	2.57
10 February 2006	2.57
13 February 2006	2.57
14 February 2006	2.57
15 February 2006	2.55
16 February 2006	2.56
17 February 2006	2.52
20 February 2006	ND
21 February 2006	2.51
22 February 2006	2.49
23 February 2006	2.50
24 February 2006	2.52
27 February 2006	2.52
28 February 2006	2.53
1 March 2006	2.54
2 March 2006	2.58
3 March 2006	2.61
6 March 2006	2.62
7 March 2006	2.61
8 March 2006	2.58
9 March 2006	2.59
10 March 2006	2.60
13 March 2006	2.59
14 March 2006	2.61
15 March 2006	2.61
16 March 2006	2.57
17 March 2006	2.59
20 March 2006	2.55
21 March 2006	2.55
22 March 2006	2.55
23 March 2006	2.57
24 March 2006	2.54
27 March 2006	2.55
28 March 2006	2.56
29 March 2006	2.56
30 March 2006	2.58
31 March 2006	2.60
3 April 2006	2.60
4 April 2006	2.59
5 April 2006	2.60
6 April 2006	2.61
7 April 2006	2.63
10 April 2006	2.64
11 April 2006	2.63
12 April 2006	2.62
13 April 2006	2.63
14 April 2006	ND
17 April 2006	2.63
18 April 2006	2.67
19 April 2006	2.72
20 April 2006	2.72
21 April 2006	2.71
24 April 2006	2.70
25 April 2006	2.73
26 April 2006	2.75
27 April 2006	2.77
28 April 2006	2.82
1 May 2006	2.83
2 May 2006	2.79
3 May 2006	2.77
4 May 2006	2.75
5 May 2006	2.75
8 May 2006	2.74
9 May 2006	2.76
10 May 2006	2.74
11 May 2006	2.80
12 May 2006	2.78
15 May 2006	2.77
16 May 2006	2.76
17 May 2006	2.79
18 May 2006	2.74
19 May 2006	2.69
22 May 2006	2.71
23 May 2006	2.70
24 May 2006	2.69
25 May 2006	2.69
26 May 2006	2.71
29 May 2006	ND
30 May 2006	2.73
31 May 2006	2.75
1 June 2006	2.74
2 June 2006	2.72
5 June 2006	2.70
6 June 2006	2.64
7 June 2006	2.61
8 June 2006	2.61
9 June 2006	2.59
12 June 2006	2.59
13 June 2006	2.60
14 June 2006	2.61
15 June 2006	2.65
16 June 2006	2.66
19 June 2006	2.64
20 June 2006	2.64
21 June 2006	2.63
22 June 2006	2.64
23 June 2006	2.65
26 June 2006	2.66
27 June 2006	2.64
28 June 2006	2.67
29 June 2006	2.68
30 June 2006	2.68
3 July 2006	2.66
4 July 2006	ND
5 July 2006	2.66
6 July 2006	2.65
7 July 2006	2.64
10 July 2006	2.64
11 July 2006	2.62
12 July 2006	2.59
13 July 2006	2.61
14 July 2006	2.63
17 July 2006	2.64
18 July 2006	2.64
19 July 2006	2.64
20 July 2006	2.65
21 July 2006	2.62
24 July 2006	2.62
25 July 2006	2.67
26 July 2006	2.68
27 July 2006	2.68
28 July 2006	2.68
31 July 2006	2.69
1 August 2006	2.68
2 August 2006	2.68
3 August 2006	2.68
4 August 2006	2.69
7 August 2006	2.68
8 August 2006	2.72
9 August 2006	2.74
10 August 2006	2.72
11 August 2006	2.71
14 August 2006	2.70
15 August 2006	2.71
16 August 2006	2.71
17 August 2006	2.71
18 August 2006	2.70
21 August 2006	2.71
22 August 2006	2.73
23 August 2006	2.73
24 August 2006	2.71
25 August 2006	2.73
28 August 2006	2.72
29 August 2006	2.68
30 August 2006	2.68
31 August 2006	2.68
1 September 2006	2.67
4 September 2006	ND
5 September 2006	2.67
6 September 2006	2.68
7 September 2006	2.66
8 September 2006	2.65
11 September 2006	2.64
12 September 2006	2.64
13 September 2006	2.65
14 September 2006	2.66
15 September 2006	2.64
18 September 2006	2.64
19 September 2006	2.61
20 September 2006	2.59
21 September 2006	2.59
22 September 2006	2.58
25 September 2006	2.57
26 September 2006	2.55
27 September 2006	2.53
28 September 2006	2.57
29 September 2006	2.57
2 October 2006	2.57
3 October 2006	2.56
4 October 2006	2.56
5 October 2006	2.57
6 October 2006	2.59
9 October 2006	ND
10 October 2006	2.57
11 October 2006	2.56
12 October 2006	2.56
13 October 2006	2.58
16 October 2006	2.59
17 October 2006	2.57
18 October 2006	2.57
19 October 2006	2.60
20 October 2006	2.61
23 October 2006	2.60
24 October 2006	2.61
25 October 2006	2.61
26 October 2006	2.64
27 October 2006	2.63
30 October 2006	2.61
31 October 2006	2.60
1 November 2006	2.59
2 November 2006	2.57
3 November 2006	2.64
6 November 2006	2.63
7 November 2006	2.65
8 November 2006	2.65
9 November 2006	2.64
10 November 2006	2.61
13 November 2006	2.63
14 November 2006	2.59
15 November 2006	2.58
16 November 2006	2.57
17 November 2006	2.57
20 November 2006	2.54
21 November 2006	2.50
22 November 2006	2.51
23 November 2006	ND
24 November 2006	2.50
27 November 2006	2.50
28 November 2006	2.50
29 November 2006	2.50
30 November 2006	2.53
1 December 2006	2.55
4 December 2006	2.54
5 December 2006	2.55
6 December 2006	2.55
7 December 2006	2.54
8 December 2006	2.57
11 December 2006	2.54
12 December 2006	2.53
13 December 2006	2.55
14 December 2006	2.54
15 December 2006	2.51
18 December 2006	2.50
19 December 2006	2.48
20 December 2006	2.48
21 December 2006	2.44
22 December 2006	2.44
25 December 2006	ND
26 December 2006	2.44
27 December 2006	2.43
28 December 2006	2.46
29 December 2006	2.47
1 January 2007	ND
2 January 2007	2.47
3 January 2007	2.47
4 January 2007	2.44
5 January 2007	2.46
8 January 2007	2.45
9 January 2007	2.42
10 January 2007	2.42
11 January 2007	2.41
12 January 2007	2.40
15 January 2007	ND
16 January 2007	2.46
17 January 2007	2.47
18 January 2007	2.48
19 January 2007	2.49
22 January 2007	2.50
23 January 2007	2.53
24 January 2007	2.55
25 January 2007	2.55
26 January 2007	2.56
29 January 2007	2.54
30 January 2007	2.55
31 January 2007	2.55
1 February 2007	2.52
2 February 2007	2.52
5 February 2007	2.51
6 February 2007	2.46
7 February 2007	2.49
8 February 2007	2.47
9 February 2007	2.49
12 February 2007	2.48
13 February 2007	2.48
14 February 2007	2.49
15 February 2007	2.48
16 February 2007	2.49
19 February 2007	ND
20 February 2007	2.49
21 February 2007	2.48
22 February 2007	2.50
23 February 2007	2.51
26 February 2007	2.49
27 February 2007	2.47
28 February 2007	2.49
1 March 2007	2.49
2 March 2007	2.48
5 March 2007	2.44
6 March 2007	2.45
7 March 2007	2.44
8 March 2007	2.44
9 March 2007	2.43
12 March 2007	2.42
13 March 2007	2.44
14 March 2007	2.46
15 March 2007	2.48
16 March 2007	2.48
19 March 2007	2.47
20 March 2007	2.46
21 March 2007	2.50
22 March 2007	2.54
23 March 2007	2.54
26 March 2007	2.55
27 March 2007	2.56
28 March 2007	2.56
29 March 2007	2.55
30 March 2007	2.55
2 April 2007	2.55
3 April 2007	2.53
4 April 2007	2.54
5 April 2007	2.57
6 April 2007	2.59
9 April 2007	2.58
10 April 2007	2.58
11 April 2007	2.56
12 April 2007	2.56
13 April 2007	2.55
16 April 2007	2.54
17 April 2007	2.53
18 April 2007	2.51
19 April 2007	2.51
20 April 2007	2.52
23 April 2007	2.51
24 April 2007	2.49
25 April 2007	2.51
26 April 2007	2.51
27 April 2007	2.53
30 April 2007	2.48
1 May 2007	2.48
2 May 2007	2.50
3 May 2007	2.49
4 May 2007	2.46
7 May 2007	2.44
8 May 2007	2.45
9 May 2007	2.45
10 May 2007	2.45
11 May 2007	2.45
14 May 2007	2.44
15 May 2007	2.42
16 May 2007	2.41
17 May 2007	2.40
18 May 2007	2.43
21 May 2007	2.44
22 May 2007	2.47
23 May 2007	2.50
24 May 2007	2.52
25 May 2007	2.52
28 May 2007	ND
29 May 2007	2.51
30 May 2007	2.53
31 May 2007	2.55
1 June 2007	2.55
4 June 2007	2.54
5 June 2007	2.55
6 June 2007	2.56
7 June 2007	2.60
8 June 2007	2.62
11 June 2007	2.63
12 June 2007	2.66
13 June 2007	2.65
14 June 2007	2.66
15 June 2007	2.64
18 June 2007	2.63
19 June 2007	2.63
20 June 2007	2.65
21 June 2007	2.68
22 June 2007	2.71
25 June 2007	2.69
26 June 2007	2.66
27 June 2007	2.65
28 June 2007	2.63
29 June 2007	2.61
2 July 2007	2.62
3 July 2007	2.62
4 July 2007	ND
5 July 2007	2.63
6 July 2007	2.64
9 July 2007	2.64
10 July 2007	2.62
11 July 2007	2.63
12 July 2007	2.62
13 July 2007	2.62
16 July 2007	2.61
17 July 2007	2.63
18 July 2007	2.63
19 July 2007	2.65
20 July 2007	2.62
23 July 2007	2.63
24 July 2007	2.67
25 July 2007	2.69
26 July 2007	2.64
27 July 2007	2.68
30 July 2007	2.69
31 July 2007	2.70
1 August 2007	2.67
2 August 2007	2.66
3 August 2007	2.62
6 August 2007	2.63
7 August 2007	2.65
8 August 2007	2.67
9 August 2007	2.67
10 August 2007	2.71
13 August 2007	2.68
14 August 2007	2.65
15 August 2007	2.67
16 August 2007	2.70
17 August 2007	2.71
20 August 2007	2.69
21 August 2007	2.70
22 August 2007	2.70
23 August 2007	2.68
24 August 2007	2.68
27 August 2007	2.69
28 August 2007	2.70
29 August 2007	2.68
30 August 2007	2.68
31 August 2007	2.66
3 September 2007	ND
4 September 2007	2.68
5 September 2007	2.69
6 September 2007	2.68
7 September 2007	2.69
10 September 2007	2.68
11 September 2007	2.70
12 September 2007	2.71
13 September 2007	2.72
14 September 2007	2.73
17 September 2007	2.75
18 September 2007	2.81
19 September 2007	2.81
20 September 2007	2.85
21 September 2007	2.81
24 September 2007	2.79
25 September 2007	2.78
26 September 2007	2.79
27 September 2007	2.81
28 September 2007	2.80
1 October 2007	2.79
2 October 2007	2.79
3 October 2007	2.78
4 October 2007	2.78
5 October 2007	2.79
8 October 2007	ND
9 October 2007	2.79
10 October 2007	2.80
11 October 2007	2.80
12 October 2007	2.79
15 October 2007	2.77
16 October 2007	2.77
17 October 2007	2.76
18 October 2007	2.74
19 October 2007	2.73
22 October 2007	2.73
23 October 2007	2.75
24 October 2007	2.74
25 October 2007	2.74
26 October 2007	2.78
29 October 2007	2.76
30 October 2007	2.77
31 October 2007	2.74
1 November 2007	2.75
2 November 2007	2.77
5 November 2007	2.79
6 November 2007	2.80
7 November 2007	2.81
8 November 2007	2.82
9 November 2007	2.80
12 November 2007	ND
13 November 2007	2.78
14 November 2007	2.75
15 November 2007	2.73
16 November 2007	2.75
19 November 2007	2.77
20 November 2007	2.77
21 November 2007	2.79
22 November 2007	ND
23 November 2007	2.77
26 November 2007	2.74
27 November 2007	2.77
28 November 2007	2.72
29 November 2007	2.75
30 November 2007	2.77
3 December 2007	2.76
4 December 2007	2.72
5 December 2007	2.67
6 December 2007	2.72
7 December 2007	2.76
10 December 2007	2.75
11 December 2007	2.71
12 December 2007	2.72
13 December 2007	2.73
14 December 2007	2.74
17 December 2007	2.74
18 December 2007	2.75
19 December 2007	2.71
20 December 2007	2.73
21 December 2007	2.77
24 December 2007	2.77
25 December 2007	ND
26 December 2007	2.78
27 December 2007	2.74
28 December 2007	2.69
31 December 2007	2.72
1 January 2008	ND
2 January 2008	2.71
3 January 2008	2.65
4 January 2008	2.67
7 January 2008	2.64
8 January 2008	2.65
9 January 2008	2.64
10 January 2008	2.70
11 January 2008	2.75
14 January 2008	2.78
15 January 2008	2.76
16 January 2008	2.75
17 January 2008	2.78
18 January 2008	2.79
21 January 2008	ND
22 January 2008	2.89
23 January 2008	2.96
24 January 2008	2.96
25 January 2008	2.93
28 January 2008	2.94
29 January 2008	3.00
30 January 2008	3.00
31 January 2008	3.00
1 February 2008	2.98
4 February 2008	2.95
5 February 2008	2.99
6 February 2008	3.01
7 February 2008	3.00
8 February 2008	3.00
11 February 2008	3.00
12 February 2008	3.00
13 February 2008	2.95
14 February 2008	2.93
15 February 2008	2.90
18 February 2008	ND
19 February 2008	2.93
20 February 2008	2.96
21 February 2008	2.90
22 February 2008	2.90
25 February 2008	2.93
26 February 2008	2.97
27 February 2008	2.95
28 February 2008	2.99
29 February 2008	2.94
3 March 2008	2.99
4 March 2008	3.10
5 March 2008	3.16
6 March 2008	3.15
7 March 2008	3.20
10 March 2008	3.19
11 March 2008	3.19
12 March 2008	3.17
13 March 2008	3.18
14 March 2008	3.15
17 March 2008	3.12
18 March 2008	3.11
19 March 2008	3.03
20 March 2008	3.01
21 March 2008	3.01
24 March 2008	3.01
25 March 2008	2.96
26 March 2008	2.97
27 March 2008	3.03
28 March 2008	3.04
31 March 2008	3.02
1 April 2008	3.07
2 April 2008	3.07
3 April 2008	3.01
4 April 2008	2.98
7 April 2008	2.97
8 April 2008	2.98
9 April 2008	2.96
10 April 2008	2.92
11 April 2008	2.95
14 April 2008	2.97
15 April 2008	2.96
16 April 2008	2.96
17 April 2008	2.91
18 April 2008	2.93
21 April 2008	2.88
22 April 2008	2.82
23 April 2008	2.83
24 April 2008	2.80
25 April 2008	2.79
28 April 2008	2.75
29 April 2008	2.77
30 April 2008	2.74
1 May 2008	2.77
2 May 2008	2.82
5 May 2008	2.82
6 May 2008	2.84
7 May 2008	2.81
8 May 2008	2.84
9 May 2008	2.84
12 May 2008	2.83
13 May 2008	2.83
14 May 2008	2.82
15 May 2008	2.81
16 May 2008	2.84
19 May 2008	2.84
20 May 2008	2.86
21 May 2008	2.86
22 May 2008	2.86
23 May 2008	2.89
26 May 2008	ND
27 May 2008	2.85
28 May 2008	2.84
29 May 2008	2.83
30 May 2008	2.89
2 June 2008	2.91
3 June 2008	2.89
4 June 2008	2.90
5 June 2008	2.92
6 June 2008	2.90
9 June 2008	2.87
10 June 2008	2.83
11 June 2008	2.81
12 June 2008	2.78
13 June 2008	2.78
16 June 2008	2.80
17 June 2008	2.82
18 June 2008	2.77
19 June 2008	2.81
20 June 2008	2.78
23 June 2008	2.72

* Five-to-ten years ahead. Return to table

Middle-left panel
PCE Price Projections

(Percent change, annual rate)
		2008		2009
		H1	H2	2009
1.	Total	3.8	4.5	2.1
2.	(April GB)	3.9	2.7	1.8
3.	Core	2.1	2.5	2.2
4.	(April GB)	2.2	2.4	2.0

Note: Annual figures are Q4/Q4 percent changes.

Middle-right panel
Alternative Simulation

Long-run inflation expectations move up ¾ percentage point relative to baseline.
Monetary policy responds according to the estimated Taylor rule.

Bottom-left panel
Unemployment Rate

Percent
Period	Baseline	Baseline Forecast	Higher inflation expectations	70% confidence interval upper bound	70% confidence interval lower bound
2006:Q1	4.70	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q2	4.67	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q3	4.66	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q4	4.44	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q1	4.49	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q2	4.51	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q3	4.68	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q4	4.80	ND	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q1	4.94	ND	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q2	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26
2008:Q3	ND	5.50	5.50	5.71	5.29
2008:Q4	ND	5.61	5.61	5.90	5.30
2009:Q1	ND	5.66	5.67	6.03	5.29
2009:Q2	ND	5.67	5.67	6.10	5.22
2009:Q3	ND	5.69	5.68	6.16	5.19
2009:Q4	ND	5.64	5.62	6.15	5.09
2010:Q1	ND	5.58	5.55	6.12	4.98
2010:Q2	ND	5.52	5.49	6.08	4.89
2010:Q3	ND	5.45	5.43	6.03	4.79
2010:Q4	ND	5.39	5.38	5.98	4.70
2011:Q1	ND	5.32	5.33	5.95	4.60
2011:Q2	ND	5.26	5.29	5.91	4.51
2011:Q3	ND	5.20	5.24	5.86	4.41
2011:Q4	ND	5.13	5.20	5.83	4.34
2012:Q1	ND	5.07	5.15	5.79	4.25
2012:Q2	ND	5.00	5.10	5.73	4.17
2012:Q3	ND	4.94	5.05	5.69	4.09
2012:Q4	ND	4.88	5.01	5.65	4.01

Bottom-center panel
Core PCE Prices

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Baseline	Baseline Forecast	Higher inflation expectations	70% confidence interval upper bound	70% confidence interval lower bound
2006:Q1	2.04	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q2	2.24	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q3	2.40	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q4	2.29	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q1	2.39	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q2	2.01	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q3	1.92	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q4	2.08	ND	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q1	2.03	ND	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q2	2.17	2.17	2.17	2.17	2.17
2008:Q3	ND	2.29	2.27	2.48	2.11
2008:Q4	ND	2.30	2.33	2.58	2.03
2009:Q1	ND	2.34	2.48	2.72	1.98
2009:Q2	ND	2.42	2.65	2.89	1.97
2009:Q3	ND	2.33	2.68	2.88	1.81
2009:Q4	ND	2.21	2.61	2.81	1.65
2010:Q1	ND	2.12	2.53	2.76	1.53
2010:Q2	ND	2.05	2.47	2.72	1.45
2010:Q3	ND	2.00	2.44	2.71	1.38
2010:Q4	ND	1.96	2.40	2.69	1.30
2011:Q1	ND	1.92	2.35	2.69	1.22
2011:Q2	ND	1.88	2.32	2.68	1.18
2011:Q3	ND	1.85	2.28	2.66	1.14
2011:Q4	ND	1.82	2.25	2.64	1.11
2012:Q1	ND	1.79	2.23	2.63	1.07
2012:Q2	ND	1.77	2.20	2.63	1.07
2012:Q3	ND	1.76	2.18	2.62	1.05
2012:Q4	ND	1.74	2.17	2.62	1.04

Bottom-right panel
Federal Funds Rate

Percent
Period	Baseline	Baseline Forecast	Higher inflation expectations	70% confidence interval upper bound	70% confidence interval lower bound
2006:Q1	4.46	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q2	4.91	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q3	5.25	ND	ND	ND	ND
2006:Q4	5.25	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q1	5.26	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q2	5.25	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q3	5.07	ND	ND	ND	ND
2007:Q4	4.50	ND	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q1	3.18	ND	ND	ND	ND
2008:Q2	2.10	2.10	2.10	2.10	2.10
2008:Q3	ND	2.00	2.00	2.41	1.62
2008:Q4	ND	2.00	1.98	2.67	1.35
2009:Q1	ND	2.20	2.21	3.15	1.29
2009:Q2	ND	2.50	2.63	3.64	1.39
2009:Q3	ND	2.75	3.04	4.10	1.52
2009:Q4	ND	2.75	3.20	4.23	1.43
2010:Q1	ND	2.75	3.32	4.29	1.39
2010:Q2	ND	3.00	3.64	4.60	1.62
2010:Q3	ND	3.00	3.67	4.68	1.64
2010:Q4	ND	3.25	3.92	4.97	1.88
2011:Q1	ND	3.25	3.90	4.98	1.85
2011:Q2	ND	3.25	3.87	5.00	1.89
2011:Q3	ND	3.25	3.83	5.05	1.85
2011:Q4	ND	3.50	4.04	5.40	2.06
2012:Q1	ND	3.71	4.22	5.58	2.26
2012:Q2	ND	3.90	4.37	5.77	2.40
2012:Q3	ND	4.06	4.50	5.96	2.55
2012:Q4	ND	4.19	4.60	6.07	2.67

Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. Madigan

Material for Briefing on FOMC Participants' Economic Projections
Brian Madigan
June 24, 2008

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

Table 1:
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents

	2008:H1	2008:H2
Central Tendencies (percent, annual rate)
Real GDP Growth	1.2 to 1.4	0.6 to 2.1
April projections	-0.4 to 0.5	1.0 to 1.9
PCE Inflation	3.7 to 4.0	3.6 to 4.6
April projections	3.5 to 4.0	2.5 to 3.1
Core PCE Inflation	2.1 to 2.2	2.3 to 2.5
April projections	2.2 to 2.4	2.2 to 2.4
Ranges (percent, annual rate)
Real GDP Growth	1.0 to 1.5	0.4 to 2.2
April projections	-0.5 to 0.6	0.4 to 2.9
PCE Inflation	3.6 to 4.6	3.2 to 4.8
April projections	3.0 to 4.4	2.3 to 3.6
Core PCE Inflation	2.0 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.6
April projections	2.0 to 2.5	1.7 to 2.7
Memo: Greenbook (percent, annual rate)
Real GDP Growth	1.4	0.7
April Greenbook	-0.5	0.9
PCE Inflation	3.8	4.5
April Greenbook	3.9	2.7
Core PCE Inflation	2.1	2.5
April Greenbook	2.2	2.4

Table 2:
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents

	2008	2009	2010
Central Tendencies (percent)
Real GDP Growth	1.0 to 1.6	2.0 to 2.8	2.5 to 3.0
April projections	0.3 to 1.2	2.0 to 2.8	2.6 to 3.1
Unemployment Rate	5.5 to 5.7	5.3 to 5.8	5.0 to 5.6
April projections	5.5 to 5.7	5.2 to 5.7	4.9 to 5.5
PCE Inflation	3.8 to 4.2	2.0 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.0
April projections	3.1 to 3.4	1.9 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.0
Core PCE Inflation	2.2 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.0
April projections	2.2 to 2.4	1.9 to 2.1	1.7 to 1.9
Ranges (percent)
Real GDP Growth	0.9 to 1.8	1.9 to 3.0	2.0 to 3.5
April projections	0.0 to 1.5	1.8 to 3.0	2.0 to 3.4
Unemployment Rate	5.5 to 5.8	5.2 to 6.1	5.0 to 5.8
April projections	5.3 to 6.0	5.2 to 6.3	4.8 to 5.9
PCE Inflation	3.4 to 4.6	1.7 to 3.0	1.6 to 2.1
April projections	2.8 to 3.8	1.7 to 3.0	1.5 to 2.0
Core PCE Inflation	2.0 to 2.5	1.8 to 2.3	1.5 to 2.0
April projections	1.9 to 2.5	1.7 to 2.2	1.3 to 2.0
Memo: Greenbook (percent)
Real GDP Growth	1.0	2.4	3.1
April Greenbook	0.2	2.8	3.1
Unemployment Rate	5.6	5.6	5.4
April Greenbook	5.7	5.5	5.2
PCE Inflation	4.2	2.1	1.9
April Greenbook	3.3	1.8	1.8
Core PCE Inflation	2.3	2.2	2.0
April Greenbook	2.3	2.0	1.8

Exhibit 3
Risks and Uncertainty in Economic Projections

Top-left panel
Risk Weighting around Outlook for Real GDP Growth

Number of participants
	Weighted to Downside	Broadly Balanced	Weighted to Upside
January	13	3	1
April	13	4	0
June	14	3	0

Top-right panel
Degree of Uncertainty about Outlook for Real GDP Growth

Number of participants
	Historically Normal	Higher
January	2	15
April	3	14
June	4	13

Bottom-left panel
Risk Weighting around Outlook for Total PCE Inflation

Number of participants
	Broadly Balanced	Weighted to Upside
January	11	6
April	9	8
June	4	13

Bottom-right panel
Degree of Uncertainty about Outlook for Total PCE Inflation

Number of participants
	Lower	Historically Normal	Higher
January	0	12	5
April	1	5	11
June	0	4	13

Exhibit 4
Consideration of Long-Term Projections

Top panel
Issue

Current three-year horizon for projections does not always reveal your views of:
- Steady-state characteristics of economy
  - Sustainable rate of unemployment
  - Sustainable rate of output growth
- Rate of inflation consistent with dual mandate

Bottom panel
Alternative approaches

Extend entire set of projections for four variables and forecast narratives out to five years.
- a. Advantage: full, coherent presentation
- b. Disadvantage: burden on participants
Maintain three-year projection horizon for four variables but add fifth-year projections for output growth, unemployment, and total inflation
- a. Advantage: less burden on participants
- b. Disadvantage: less complete explanation of transition to steady state
Maintain three-year projection horizon for four variables but add estimates of long-run averages of output growth, unemployment, and total inflation five to ten years ahead
- a. Advantage: no need for participants to project fourth and fifth years for four variables
- b. Disadvantages:
  - i. Less complete explanation of transition to steady state
  - ii. Need to forecast long-run demographic and productivity trends

Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. Madigan

Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives
Brian Madigan
June 24-25, 2008

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

	April FOMC	Alternative A	Alternative B	Alternative C
Policy Decision	1. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.	The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 1-¾ percent.	The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.	The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2-¼ percent.
Rationale	2. Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.	Recent information indicates that economic activity has remained weak in recent months. Although consumer spending appears to have firmed somewhat, residential investment has continued to contract sharply and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.	Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.	Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
Rationale	3. Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.	Although energy prices have increased further and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months, core inflation has been stable of late. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.	The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.	Overall inflation has been elevated, energy prices have continued to increase, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen further. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, partly reflecting today's policy action. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Assessment of Risk	4. The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.	The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.	The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to near-term inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.	Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information on the economy and financial conditions.

Period	Lower bound of 90% confidence interval	Lower bound of 70% confidence interval	Lower bound of range of model based estimates	The actual real funds rate based on lagged core inflation	Greenbook-consistent measure	Upper bound of range of model based estimates	Upper bound of 70% confidence interval	Upper bound of 90% confidence interval
1990:Q1	0.17	1.13	2.23	4.51	ND	3.93	4.51	5.47
1990:Q2	0.12	1.09	2.00	4.03	ND	3.61	4.31	5.23
1990:Q3	-0.61	0.32	1.21	3.73	ND	3.06	3.70	4.65
1990:Q4	-0.97	-0.03	1.09	3.45	ND	2.74	3.32	4.28
1991:Q1	-1.11	-0.17	0.81	2.18	ND	2.38	3.07	4.00
1991:Q2	-0.86	0.08	1.18	2.16	ND	2.76	3.39	4.33
1991:Q3	-0.83	0.17	1.12	1.99	ND	2.94	3.53	4.44
1991:Q4	-0.77	0.23	1.10	1.07	ND	2.87	3.51	4.44
1992:Q1	-0.46	0.52	1.42	0.44	ND	3.20	3.81	4.74
1992:Q2	-0.38	0.65	1.54	0.25	ND	3.32	3.96	4.87
1992:Q3	-0.44	0.50	1.61	-0.02	ND	3.20	3.80	4.76
1992:Q4	-0.28	0.67	1.79	0.00	ND	2.99	3.77	4.64
1993:Q1	-0.48	0.50	1.38	0.38	ND	2.92	3.69	4.59
1993:Q2	-0.65	0.33	1.30	0.29	ND	2.70	3.45	4.35
1993:Q3	-0.67	0.24	1.35	0.59	ND	2.19	3.25	4.08
1993:Q4	-0.39	0.51	1.71	0.72	ND	2.35	3.48	4.33
1994:Q1	-0.24	0.69	1.86	1.03	ND	2.87	3.75	4.61
1994:Q2	-0.10	0.80	2.00	1.84	ND	2.49	3.71	4.55
1994:Q3	-0.33	0.56	1.80	2.06	ND	2.39	3.50	4.37
1994:Q4	-0.36	0.53	1.54	2.74	ND	2.64	3.59	4.47
1995:Q1	-0.18	0.77	1.75	3.37	ND	2.86	3.82	4.66
1995:Q2	-0.45	0.50	1.50	3.69	ND	2.53	3.52	4.35
1995:Q3	-0.18	0.81	1.69	3.76	ND	2.81	3.85	4.69
1995:Q4	-0.14	0.83	1.79	3.68	ND	2.77	3.84	4.69
1996:Q1	-0.17	0.75	1.79	3.38	ND	2.82	3.75	4.59
1996:Q2	0.34	1.24	2.28	3.39	ND	3.16	4.23	5.10
1996:Q3	0.35	1.34	2.20	3.53	ND	3.73	4.49	5.36
1996:Q4	0.42	1.37	2.30	3.46	ND	3.60	4.47	5.32
1997:Q1	0.36	1.33	2.25	3.54	ND	3.78	4.52	5.43
1997:Q2	0.71	1.62	2.57	3.76	ND	3.44	4.62	5.47
1997:Q3	0.96	1.93	2.72	3.97	4.11	4.25	5.07	5.95
1997:Q4	0.80	1.81	2.56	4.16	4.30	4.94	5.43	6.42
1998:Q1	0.80	1.80	2.65	4.20	4.33	3.97	4.90	5.76
1998:Q2	0.75	1.73	2.53	4.34	4.16	4.01	4.91	5.78
1998:Q3	0.65	1.59	2.67	4.23	4.30	4.36	4.94	5.90
1998:Q4	0.79	1.71	2.65	3.44	3.47	4.12	4.86	5.78
1999:Q1	0.93	1.90	2.97	3.36	3.90	4.81	5.32	6.34
1999:Q2	1.01	2.04	2.79	3.23	4.08	4.92	5.48	6.48
1999:Q3	1.13	2.15	2.93	3.59	4.29	5.09	5.61	6.58
1999:Q4	1.52	2.53	3.30	3.77	4.37	4.60	5.68	6.52
2000:Q1	1.16	2.28	2.87	3.84	5.26	4.60	5.59	6.47
2000:Q2	1.33	2.23	3.17	4.54	5.63	4.04	5.23	6.08
2000:Q3	0.92	1.99	2.61	4.92	5.24	4.80	5.42	6.34
2000:Q4	0.66	1.62	2.48	4.96	4.55	3.95	4.78	5.65
2001:Q1	0.09	1.07	2.19	3.99	3.10	3.88	4.45	5.40
2001:Q2	0.11	0.98	2.22	2.52	1.94	2.97	3.95	4.83
2001:Q3	-0.55	0.39	1.34	1.57	1.72	2.75	3.56	4.46
2001:Q4	-0.70	0.18	1.14	-0.07	0.51	2.06	3.19	4.09
2002:Q1	-0.37	0.49	1.53	-0.09	0.66	2.37	3.47	4.34
2002:Q2	-0.72	0.18	1.08	-0.02	0.54	2.25	3.25	4.15
2002:Q3	-1.69	-0.68	-0.25	-0.13	0.29	1.86	2.90	3.86
2002:Q4	-1.90	-0.90	-0.40	-0.10	-0.01	1.87	2.79	3.74
2003:Q1	-1.73	-0.73	-0.21	-0.25	0.33	2.61	3.22	4.18
2003:Q2	-1.04	-0.09	0.66	-0.11	0.44	2.61	3.31	4.26
2003:Q3	-0.39	0.51	1.41	-0.32	0.03	2.61	3.61	4.51
2003:Q4	-0.17	0.71	1.95	-0.44	0.18	2.61	3.67	4.53
2004:Q1	-0.29	0.59	1.73	-0.75	0.48	2.59	3.60	4.48
2004:Q2	-0.20	0.68	1.70	-1.08	0.67	2.82	3.74	4.65
2004:Q3	-0.39	0.53	1.37	-0.65	0.90	2.58	3.63	4.55
2004:Q4	-0.39	0.48	1.62	-0.26	1.29	2.16	3.42	4.31
2005:Q1	-0.24	0.62	1.67	0.22	1.88	2.51	3.58	4.45
2005:Q2	-0.34	0.52	1.44	0.84	1.44	2.53	3.56	4.47
2005:Q3	-0.19	0.66	1.74	1.37	1.78	2.37	3.63	4.53
2005:Q4	-0.26	0.62	1.55	1.83	2.16	2.72	3.68	4.60
2006:Q1	-0.13	0.73	1.89	2.44	2.61	2.40	3.69	4.58
2006:Q2	-0.11	0.82	1.79	2.69	2.57	2.93	3.91	4.77
2006:Q3	-0.23	0.70	1.75	2.87	2.61	2.74	3.72	4.59
2006:Q4	-0.29	0.56	1.78	2.98	2.80	2.16	3.48	4.37
2007:Q1	-0.53	0.32	1.56	2.90	2.96	1.99	3.22	4.12
2007:Q2	-0.50	0.34	1.53	3.27	3.22	2.22	3.28	4.19
2007:Q3	-0.15	0.73	1.60	3.17	3.08	2.74	3.84	4.73
2007:Q4	-0.86	0.17	0.68	2.44	2.52	3.24	3.94	4.89
2008:Q1	-2.31	-1.16	-0.94	1.18	0.17	2.73	3.53	4.51
2008:Q2	-2.20	-1.24	-0.64	-0.15	-0.07	2.19	2.61	3.84

	Current Estimate	Previous Bluebook
Short-Run Measures
1. Single-equation model	2.2	2.1
2. Small structural model	-0.6	-0.8
3. Large model (FRB/US)	0.4	0.3
Confidence intervals for three model-based estimates
4a. 70 percent confidence interval	-1.2 - 2.6
4b. 90 percent confidence interval	-2.2 - 3.8
5. Greenbook-consistent measure	-0.1	-0.5
Medium-Run Measures
6. Single-equation model	2.2	2.2
7. Small structural model	1.8	1.7
Confidence intervals for two model-based estimates
8a. 70 percent confidence interval	1.1 - 2.9
8b. 90 percent confidence interval	0.5 - 3.7
9. TIPS-based factor model	2.0	2.0
Measures of Actual Real Federal Funds Rate
10. Based on lagged core inflation	-0.2	0.1
11. Based on lagged headline inflation	-1.3	-1.1*
12. Based on Greenbook projection of headline inflation	-1.3	-0.7*

	March 2008	April 2008	Est. May 2008
Goldman Sachs	9.70	10.20	10.80
Lehman Brothers*	10.00	10.70	10.50
Merrill Lynch	6.65	7.05	ND
Morgan Stanley	12.20	12.10	11.75

	2007:Q1	2008:Q1
GS	5.4	4.8
LEH	5.2	5.0
MER	6.7	4.6
MS	4.8	4.2

BAC	5.1	4.8
C	5.0	3.9
JPM	6.1	5.9
WFC	7.6	6.1
WB	4.4	4.3

As of dates: 5/22/08 - 6/10/08	Severity Assumption
UNSECURED FUNDING - Percent not rolling
Total Unsecured Funding	100%
SECURED FUNDING - Percent not rolling
Fixed Income Finance
OMO Eligible	0%
Liquid	20%
Less Liquid	50%
Illiquid	100%
Equity Finance
Liquid	20%
Less Liquid	50%
ON-BOARDING AND OTHER COMMITMENTS
Off-Balance Sheet Assets On-Boarded	Institution Specific
Loan Commitments/Other Contractual Uses	Institution Specific
Other Liabilities/Commitments	Institution Specific
OPERATING CASH FLOWS
Prime Brokerage, Withdrawal of Free Credits	50%
Customer Shorts with Liquidity Risk	11%
Release of Lockup Cash Flows	90% - 100%
Collateral and Margin Calls: Payments / Receipts	100% / 90%
Derivatives / Margin Mismatches: Payments / Receipts	100% / 90%
ADDITIONAL FUNDING
Affiliated Banks / Unaffiliated Bank Lines / Other	Institution Specific

Dealer	(in billions of dollars)			Regulators
	Total Assets¹			Regulators
	Legal Entity (1)	Consolidated (2)	Tri-party Repo Collateral² (3)	Legal Entity (4)	Consolidated (5)
1. Goldman Sachs	705	1,189	117	SEC	CSE/SEC
2. Deutsche Bank Securities	574	3,642	366	SEC	FHC/FRS
3. Morgan Stanley	568	1,091	129	SEC	CSE/SEC
4. Lehman Brothers	488	786	147	SEC	CSE/SEC
5. UBS Securities	458	2,244	159	SEC	FHC/FRS
6. Barclays Capital	439	2,451³	237	SEC	FHC/FRS
7. Citigroup Global Markets	354	2,200	154	SEC	FHC/FRS
8. Credit Suisse Securities	336	1,215	170	SEC	FHC/FRS
9. JP Morgan Securities	280	1,643	90	SEC	FHC/FRS
10. Banc of America Securities	272	1,737	311	SEC	FHC/FRS
11. BNP Paribas Securities	245	2,496	102	SEC	FHC/FRS
12. Merrill Lynch Govt Securities	170	1,042	141	Treasury/SEC	CSE/SEC
13. Greenwich Capital Mkts	150	3,795³	58	SEC	FHC/FRS
14. Bear Stearns	131	399	20	SEC	CSE/SEC
15. HSBC Securities USA	75	2,354³	34	SEC	FHC/FRS
16. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities	62	1,780	14	SEC	FHC/FRS
17. Cantor Fitzgerald	31	29³	NA	SEC	None
18. Daiwa Securities America	29	174	5	SEC	Japan FSA
19. Countrywide Securities	24	199	12	SEC	THC/OTS
20. Mizuho Securities USA	23	1,374³	12	SEC	FHC/FRS

	2007:Q1	2008:Q1
GS	5.4	4.8
LEH	5.2	5.0
MER	6.7	4.6
MS	4.8	4.2

BAC	5.1	4.8
C	5.0	3.9
JPM	6.1	5.9
WFC	7.6	6.1
WB	4.4	4.3

Meeting of the Federal Open Market CommitteeJune 24-25, 2008 Presentation Materials -- Text Version

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Dudley

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APPENDIX: Reference Exhibits

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Top panel(26) Federal Reserve Term Auction Facility Results

Page 12

Top panel(27) Term Securities Lending Facility Auction Results

Page 13

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Middle panel(29)

Bottom panel(30)

Appendix 2: Materials used by Messrs. Sheets, Slifman, and Wascher

Exhibit 1Outlook for Foreign Growth

Top panelReal GDP Projections*

Middle-left panelJapan

Middle-right panelEuro Area

Bottom panelReal GDP Growth

Exhibit 2Oil Market

Top-left panelWest Texas Intermediate

Top-right panelOECD Private Inventories of Oil and Products

Middle panelWorld Oil Balance

Bottom-left panelWorld Oil Production and GDP

Bottom-right panelProved Oil Reserves

Exhibit 3

Non-fuel Commodities

Top-left panelNon-fuel Commodity Prices

Middle-left panelInventories of Selected Commodities

Bottom-left panelPrices of Selected Commodities

Other Explanations for Recent Moves in Commodity Prices

Top-right panelRole of Speculators?

Middle-right panelCorrelations: Commodity Prices and the Dollar

Bottom-right panelCorrelations: Commodity Prices and Interest Rates

Exhibit 4Outlook for Foreign Inflation

Top-left panelOutlook for Inflation

Top-right panelsInflation Compensation

Bottom-left panelPolicy Interest Rates

Bottom-right panelConsumer Prices in Selected Emerging Markets

Exhibit 5U.S. External Sector

Top-left panelBroad Real Dollar

Top-right panelCore Import Prices

Bottom panelU.S. Trade Outlook

Exhibit 6Recent Indicators

Top-left panelConsumer Sentiment Index

Top-right panelBusiness Sentiment

Middle-left panelChange in Private Payroll Employment

Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
June 24-25, 2008 Presentation Materials -- Text Version

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Top panel
(26) Federal Reserve Term Auction Facility Results

Top panel
(27) Term Securities Lending Facility Auction Results

Top panel
(28)

Middle panel
(29)

Bottom panel
(30)

Exhibit 1
Outlook for Foreign Growth

Top panel
Real GDP Projections*

Middle-left panel
Japan

Middle-right panel
Euro Area

Bottom panel
Real GDP Growth

Exhibit 2
Oil Market

Top-left panel
West Texas Intermediate

Top-right panel
OECD Private Inventories of Oil and Products

Middle panel
World Oil Balance

Bottom-left panel
World Oil Production and GDP

Bottom-right panel
Proved Oil Reserves

Top-left panel
Non-fuel Commodity Prices

Middle-left panel
Inventories of Selected Commodities

Bottom-left panel
Prices of Selected Commodities

Top-right panel
Role of Speculators?

Middle-right panel
Correlations: Commodity Prices and the Dollar

Bottom-right panel
Correlations: Commodity Prices and Interest Rates

Exhibit 4
Outlook for Foreign Inflation

Top-left panel
Outlook for Inflation

Top-right panels
Inflation Compensation

Bottom-left panel
Policy Interest Rates

Bottom-right panel
Consumer Prices in Selected Emerging Markets

Exhibit 5
U.S. External Sector

Top-left panel
Broad Real Dollar

Top-right panel
Core Import Prices

Bottom panel
U.S. Trade Outlook

Exhibit 6
Recent Indicators

Top-left panel
Consumer Sentiment Index

Top-right panel
Business Sentiment

Middle-left panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Middle-right panel
Real Goods PCE, Excluding Motor Vehicles

Bottom-left panel
Business Spending Indicators

Bottom-right panel
Sales of Light Vehicles

Exhibit 7
Key Background Factors and Medium-Term Outlook

Top panel
Factors Affecting GDP Forecast

Middle-left panel
Oil Price

Middle-right panel
Federal Funds Rate

Bottom-left panel
Real GDP Forecast

Bottom-right panel
GDP Gap

Exhibit 8
Housing

Top-left panel
Vacancy Rate: Single-family Homes*

Top-right panel
House Prices

Middle-left panel
Perception of Falling House Prices

Middle-right panel
House Price Overvaluation and Renters' Homebuying Attitudes

Bottom-left panel
Sales of Single-family Homes

Bottom-right panel
Single-family Housing Starts

Exhibit 9
Consumption and Investment

Top-left panel
Factors Affecting PCE Forecast

Top-right panel
Real PCE

	2007:Q1	2008:Q1
GS	5.4	4.8
LEH	5.2	5.0
MER	6.7	4.6
MS	4.8	4.2

BAC	5.1	4.8
C	5.0	3.9
JPM	6.1	5.9
WFC	7.6	6.1
WB	4.4	4.3