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Summary of Economic Projections
Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections

January 27-28, 2009 Tables and Charts

SEP: Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections (PDF)

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Table 1
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents 1

2009 2010 2011
Central Tendencies
Real GDP Growth      -1.3 to -0.5      2.5 to 3.3 3.8 to 5.0
October projections -0.2 to 1.1 2.3 to 3.2 2.8 to 3.6
Unemployment Rate 8.5 to 8.8 8.0 to 8.3 6.7 to 7.5
October projections 7.1 to 7.6 6.5 to 7.3 5.5 to 6.6
PCE Inflation 0.3 to 1.0 1.0 to 1.5 0.9 to 1.7
October projections 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 1.7
Core PCE Inflation 0.9 to 1.1 0.8 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.5
October projections 1.5 to 2.0 1.3 to 1.8 1.3 to 1.7
Ranges
Real GDP Growth -2.5 to 0.2 1.5 to 4.5 2.3 to 5.5
October projections -1.0 to 1.8 1.5 to 4.5 2.0 to 5.0
Unemployment Rate 8.0 to 9.2 7.0 to 9.2 5.5 to 8.0
October projections 6.6 to 8.0 5.5 to 8.0 4.9 to 7.3
PCE Inflation -0.5 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.8 0.2 to 2.1
October projections 1.0 to 2.2 1.1 to 1.9 0.8 to 1.8
Core PCE Inflation 0.6 to 1.5 0.4 to 1.7 0.0 to 1.8
October projections 1.3 to 2.1 1.1 to 1.9 0.8 to 1.8

1. Projections of real GDP growth, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth rates, i.e. percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures and the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, respectively. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.  Return to text


Table 1a
Economic Projections for the First Half of 2009*
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges
Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP -4.0 to -2.9 -5.0 to -1.3
PCE Inflation -0.7 to 0.2 -1.7 to 1.2
Core PCE Inflation 1.0 to 1.2 0.5 to 1.4
Participants' Projections
Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 -2.9 -1.7 1.0
2 -3.6 0.0 1.2
3 -3.0 0.2 1.0
4 -4.0 -0.2 1.2
5 -2.2 0.6 0.8
6 -3.0 -0.7 0.7
7 -3.3 0.2 1.4
8 -5.0 -1.0 1.0
9 -2.0 1.0 1.0
10 -3.0 -0.2 1.2
11 -4.5 -0.2 1.1
12 -3.5 -1.7 1.2
13 -4.0 0.0 1.2
14 -3.0 -0.7 1.0
15 -1.3 1.2 1.3
16 -3.6 0.2 0.5

* Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text


Table 1b
Economic Projections for the Second Half of 2009*
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges
Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP 0.8 to 2.1 0.1 to 2.4
PCE Inflation 1.0 to 1.8 0.7 to 3.0
Core PCE Inflation 0.8 to 1.2 0.2 to 1.7
Participants' Projections
Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 1.3 0.7 0.2
2 1.7 2.0 0.8
3 0.2 1.4 1.0
4 2.1 1.6 1.0
5 1.2 1.4 1.2
6 0.8 0.9 1.1
7 2.4 2.2 1.4
8 0.1 1.0 1.0
9 2.0 1.0 1.0
10 0.4 1.4 0.8
11 2.2 1.2 0.7
12 2.0 3.0 0.8
13 1.3 1.6 1.2
14 2.1 1.3 1.0
15 1.7 1.8 1.7
16 1.1 1.4 1.3

* Projections for the second half of 2009 implied by participants' January projections for the first half of 2009 and for 2009 as a whole. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text


Table 2
January Economic Projections
(in percent)

Projection Year Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
 
1 2009 -0.8 8.8 -0.5 0.6
2 2009 -1.0 8.6 1.0 1.0
3 2009 -1.4 8.6 0.8 1.0
4 2009 -1.0 8.5 0.7 1.1
5 2009 -0.5 8.0 1.0 1.0
6 2009 -1.1 8.7 0.1 0.9
7 2009 -0.5 8.7 1.2 1.4
8 2009 -2.5 9.0 0.0 1.0
9 2009 0.0 8.5 1.0 1.0
10 2009 -1.3 8.6 0.6 1.0
11 2009 -1.2 9.0 0.5 0.9
12 2009 -0.8 8.4 0.6 1.0
13 2009 -1.4 8.5 0.8 1.2
14 2009 -0.5 8.5 0.3 1.0
15 2009 0.2 8.0 1.5 1.5
16 2009 -1.3 9.2 0.8 0.9
 
1 2010 3.3 8.4 1.8 1.0
2 2010 2.5 8.3 0.9 0.8
3 2010 1.5 8.0 1.2 1.1
4 2010 2.8 8.0 1.2 1.0
5 2010 3.0 8.2 1.5 1.5
6 2010 3.3 8.2 1.2 1.1
7 2010 3.0 8.3 1.5 1.3
8 2010 2.0 9.0 1.0 1.0
9 2010 4.0 7.5 1.5 1.5
10 2010 1.5 8.3 1.3 1.3
11 2010 4.5 8.2 1.0 0.4
12 2010 2.6 8.1 1.1 0.8
13 2010 3.5 8.1 0.7 0.7
14 2010 3.1 8.2 0.9 0.8
15 2010 3.0 7.0 1.7 1.7
16 2010 3.0 9.2 1.7 1.6
 
1 2011 4.2 7.7 2.1 1.4
2 2011 4.2 7.4 0.9 0.7
3 2011 3.8 6.8 1.8 1.3
4 2011 5.0 6.5 1.2 1.0
5 2011 3.5 7.5 1.5 1.5
6 2011 4.5 7.2 1.3 1.2
7 2011 5.0 7.0 1.5 1.3
8 2011 4.0 8.0 1.5 1.5
9 2011 3.8 6.5 1.5 1.5
10 2011 2.3 7.3 1.5 1.5
11 2011 5.5 7.0 0.2 0.0
12 2011 4.9 6.7 0.8 0.6
13 2011 4.5 7.5 1.0 1.0
14 2011 5.0 6.9 0.8 0.7
15 2011 2.7 5.5 1.7 1.7
16 2011 5.0 7.2 1.8 1.8


Figure 1
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2009-11

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2011. Actual data (annual) for years 2004 through 2008. Definitions of variables are in the note to table 1.

Change in real GDP
Percent
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 -0.5 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 0.2 4.5 5.5
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - -0.5 3.3 5.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - -1.3 2.5 3.8
Lower End of Range - - - - - -2.5 1.5 2.3
Unemployment Rate
Percent
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.9 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 9.2 9.2 8.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.8 8.3 7.5
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.5 8.0 6.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.0 7.0 5.5
PCE Inflation
Percent
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 1.7 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.8 2.1
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.0 1.5 1.7
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.3 1.0 0.9
Lower End of Range - - - - - -0.5 0.7 0.2
Core PCE Inflation
Percent
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.9 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.7 1.8
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.1 1.5 1.5
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.9 0.8 0.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 0.6 0.4 0.0


Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 0 0 16
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 13 3 0
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2(a) A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
2(b) C C B C C C B C C C C C B C C C


Uncertainty and Risks - Unemployment Rate

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 0 0 16
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 0 2 14
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2(a) A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
2(b) A A A A A A B A A A A A B A A A


Uncertainty and Risks - PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 0 2 14
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 7 9 0
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2(a) A A B A B A A A A A A A A A A A
2(b) C B B C B C B B B C C B B C B C


Uncertainty and Risks - Core PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 0 2 14
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 7 9 0
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2(a) A A B A B A A A A A A A A A A A
2(b) C B B C B C B B B C C B B C B C


Figure 2.A.
Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2009-11

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of participants (except as noted)
Percent range 2009 2010 2011
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections
-2.6 - -2.5 1 0 0 0 0 0
-2.4 - -2.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
-2.2 - -2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0
-2.0 - -1.9 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.8 - -1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.6 - -1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1.4 - -1.3 4 0 0 0 0 0
-1.2 - -1.1 2 0 0 0 0 0
-1.0 - -0.9 2 2 0 0 0 0
-0.8 - -0.7 2 1 0 0 0 0
-0.6 - -0.5 3 0 0 0 0 0
-0.4 - -0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.2 - -0.1 0 2 0 0 0 0
0.0 - 0.1 1 2 0 0 0 0
0.2 - 0.3 1 1 0 0 0 0
0.4 - 0.5 0 2 0 0 0 0
0.6 - 0.7 0 1 0 0 0 0
0.8 - 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.0 - 1.1 0 3 0 0 0 0
1.2 - 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.4 - 1.5 0 1 2 2 0 0
1.6 - 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.8 - 1.9 0 2 0 1 0 0
2.0 - 2.1 0 0 1 0 0 1
2.2 - 2.3 0 0 0 1 1 0
2.4 - 2.5 0 0 1 4 0 1
2.6 - 2.7 0 0 1 1 1 1
2.8 - 2.9 0 0 1 0 0 2
3.0 - 3.1 0 0 5 4 0 2
3.2 - 3.3 0 0 2 1 0 1
3.4 - 3.5 0 0 1 1 1 4
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 2
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 0 2 1
4.0 - 4.1 0 0 1 1 1 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 2 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 1 1 2 0
4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 1 1
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 4 1
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 1 0
Greenbook
percent range		 -0.8 - -0.7 -0.2 - -0.1 2.6 - 2.7 2.2 - 2.3 4.8 - 4.9 4.4 - 4.5


Figure 2.B.
Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2009-11

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of participants (except as noted)
Percent range 2009 2010 2011
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 1
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 2
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 1 1 1
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 1 0 1
6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 3
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 2
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 3 2 2
6.6 - 6.7 0 1 0 1 1 3
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 4 2 0
7.0 - 7.1 0 3 1 2 2 1
7.2 - 7.3 0 4 0 2 3 1
7.4 - 7.5 0 5 1 1 3 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 2 0 0 1 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 1 0 1 0 0
8.0 - 8.1 2 1 4 1 1 0
8.2 - 8.3 0 0 7 0 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 5 0 1 0 0 0
8.6 - 8.7 5 0 0 0 0 0
8.8 - 8.9 1 0 0 0 0 0
9.0 - 9.1 2 0 1 0 0 0
9.2 - 9.3 1 0 1 0 0 0
Greenbook
percent range		 8.4 - 8.5 7.2 - 7.3 8.0 - 8.1 7.2 - 7.3 6.6 - 6.7 6.4 - 6.5


Figure 2.C.
Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2009-11

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of participants (except as noted)
Percent range 2009 2010 2011
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections
-0.5 - -0.4 1 0 0 0 0 0
-0.3 - -0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.1 - 0.0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0.1 - 0.2 1 0 0 0 1 0
0.3 - 0.4 1 0 0 0 0 0
0.5 - 0.6 3 0 0 0 0 0
0.7 - 0.8 4 0 1 0 2 1
0.9 - 1.0 3 1 4 0 2 0
1.1 - 1.2 1 2 4 1 1 1
1.3 - 1.4 0 3 1 3 1 3
1.5 - 1.6 1 2 3 6 5 7
1.7 - 1.8 0 5 3 5 3 5
1.9 - 2.0 0 1 0 2 0 0
2.1 - 2.2 0 3 0 0 1 0
Greenbook
percent range		 0.5 - 0.6 1.3 - 1.4 1.1 - 1.2 1.3 - 1.4 0.7 - 0.8 1.1 - 1.2


Figure 2.D.
Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2009-11

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of participants (except as noted)
Percent range 2009 2010 2011
January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections		 January
projections		 October
projections
-0.1 - 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 0
0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.3 - 0.4 0 0 1 0 0 0
0.5 - 0.6 1 0 0 0 1 0
0.7 - 0.8 0 0 4 0 2 1
0.9 - 1.0 11 0 3 0 2 0
1.1 - 1.2 2 0 2 1 1 2
1.3 - 1.4 1 2 2 5 3 3
1.5 - 1.6 1 4 3 6 4 7
1.7 - 1.8 0 4 1 4 2 4
1.9 - 2.0 0 6 0 1 0 0
2.1 - 2.2 0 1 0 0 0 0
Greenbook
percent range		 0.9 - 1.0 1.5 - 1.6 0.7 - 0.8 1.3 - 1.4 0.5 - 0.6 1.1 - 1.2

Table 3
Longer-run Projections

Central Tendencies and Ranges
Central Tendency Range
Real GDP Growth 2.5 to 2.7 2.4 to 3
Unemployment Rate 4.8 to 5 4.5 to 5.5
Total PCE Inflation 1.7 to 2 1.5 to 2
Participants' Projections
Projection Real GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Total PCE Inflation
1 2.7 4.5 2.0
2 2.4 4.8 2.0
3 2.5 5.5 2.0
4 2.5 5.0 2.0
5 2.7 5.0 1.5
6 2.5 5.0 1.8
7 2.5 5.0 2.0
8 3.0 5.0 1.5
9 2.7 5.5 1.5
10 2.5 5.5 2.0
11 2.5 4.8 2.0
12 2.8 5.0 2.0
13 2.4 5.0 2.0
14 2.5 4.8 2.0
15 2.7 5.0 1.7
16 2.5 4.7 2.0

Figure 3.
Distribution of participants' longer-run projections for change in real GDP, unemployment, and PCE inflation

Histograms, three panels.

Number of participants
Percent range January
projections		 October
projections
Change in real GDP
2.0 - 2.1 0 1
2.2 - 2.3 0 0
2.4 - 2.5 10 9
2.6 - 2.7 4 4
2.8 - 2.9 1 3
3.0 - 3.1 1 0
Unemployment rate
4.4 - 4.5 1 1
4.6 - 4.7 1 1
4.8 - 4.9 3 5
5.0 - 5.1 8 8
5.2 - 5.3 0 0
5.4 - 5.5 3 1
5.6 - 5.7 0 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 1
PCE inflation
1.5 - 1.6 3 3
1.7 - 1.8 2 11
1.9 - 2.0 11 3

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