Accessible Version
Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
June 23-24, 2009 Presentation Materials
Pages 202 to 261 of the Transcript
Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Sack
Class II FOMC - Restricted FR
Page 1
Top panel
(1)
Title: Treasury Yields
Series: Yields for the 2-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year, and 30-Year Treasury Notes
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - June 19, 2009
Description: Treasury yields rise following the April FOMC meeting.
Apr 29: FOMC
Source: Bloomberg
Middle-left panel
(2)
Title: Policy Expectations Implied by Futures Rates
Series: December 2009 Fed Funds implied rate, December 2010 Eurodollar rate implied by contract less 15-day moving average of forward Libor-Fed Funds Basis Swap
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 19, 2009
Description: December 2009 rate nearly remains constant, while December 2010 rate increases.
Source: Bloomberg
Middle-right panel
(3)
Title: Treasury Yield Curve
Series: Yields for the 1-Year, 2-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year Treasury securities
Horizon: April 28, 2009 and June 19, 2009
Description: Treasury yield curve shifts upward ahead in June.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom panel
(4)
Title: Factors Driving 10-Year Yield Change Over Intermeeting Period
Series: Aggregated Primary Dealer responses indicating importance of various factors in the 10-Year Yield
Horizon: As of June 17, 2009
Description: Primary Dealers indicate importance of varying factors in the change of the 10-Year Yield.
Factors with average level of importance from "Important" down to "Somewhat important": Improved economic outlook, Reduction in downside inflation risk, Increase in Treasury supply, Mortgage convexity hedging, Increase in upside inflation risk.
Source: Dealer Policy Survey
Page 2
Top-left panel
(5)
Title: Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs
Series: Cumulative and expected totals for the Agency-MBS, Agency, and Treasury purchase programs
Horizon: December 2008 - December 2009
Description: Cumulative and expected totals for the Agency-MBS, Agency, and Treasury purchase programs.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Top-right panel
(6) Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs
Treasury | Agency | Agency-MBS | |
---|---|---|---|
Purchases to Date | 170 | 90 | 577 |
Announced Limit | 300 | 200 | 1250 |
Dealer Survey*: | |||
2009 Q4 | 363 | 200 | 1200 |
2010 Q2 | 363 | 200 | 1250 |
* Median response Return to table
Source: Dealer Survey
Middle panel
(7)
Title: Supply of Treasury Debt
Series: SOMA Treasury Holdings, Other Treasury Securities Outstanding, and SOMA as a Percent of Total
Horizon: January 2007 - June 2009
Description: Supply of Treasury debt increases while SOMA as a percent of total decreases.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Bottom panel
(8)
Title: Mortgage and Treasury Rates
Series: Fannie Mae 30-Year Current Coupon, Blended 5-and 10-Year Treasury yield, Fannie Mae Option Adjusted Spread to Treasury
Horizon: June 1, 2008 - June 19, 2009
Description: Rates increase after March 18 MBS program expansion.
Nov 25: Program Announcement; Jan 5: First MBS Purchase; Mar 18: Program Expansion
Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Chase
Page 3
Top panel
(9)
Title: Breakeven Inflation Rates
Series: 5-Year Spot Breakeven Rate and 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Breakeven Rate
Horizon: August 1, 2007 - June 19, 2009
Description: Breakeven inflation rates increase.
Source: Barclays
Middle panel
(10)
Title: Probability Distribution of CPI Inflation Rate in 2014-2019
Series: Primary Dealer estimates for March, April, and June distributions of CPI rates
Horizon: 2014 - 2019
Description: Primary Dealer estimates for March, April, and June distributions of CPI rates
Estimated probability of 2.0-2.5% and 2.5-3.0% increased with each estimate. For June, 2.0-2.5% shows greatest probability at about 35%, and 2.5-3.0% shows second-greatest probability at about 25%.
Source: Dealer Policy Survey
Bottom panel
(11)
Title: Yield Curve Slope
Series: 10-Year Treasury Note Yield less Fed Funds rate, and NBER Recession Periods
Horizon: January 1, 1982 - June 19, 2009
Description: 10-Year Treasury yield spread to Fed Funds rate widens.
Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-present (June 2009).
Source: Bloomberg
Page 4
Top panel
(12)
Title: Corporate Debt Spreads
Series: High Yield and Investment Grade corporate debt spreads
Horizon: June 1, 2008 - June 19, 2009
Description: Corporate debt spreads narrow.
Source: Bank of America
Middle panel
(13)
Title: Equity Prices
Series: Standard & Poor's 500 Index and its implied skew based on 90-day 25 delta put minus call
Horizon: June 1, 2008 - June 19, 2009
Description: Equity prices increase moderately and skew decreases moderately.
Source: Optionmetrics
Bottom panel
(14)
Title: US Trade-Weighted Dollar
Series: US Trade-Weighted Dollar
Horizon: June 1, 2008 - June 19, 2009
Description: The US trade-weighted dollar declines.
Source: Bloomberg
Page 5
Top panel
(15)
Title: Equity Indices for Financial Firms
Series: Supervisory Capital Assessment Program Banks Index and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index
Horizon: December 31, 2008 - June 19, 2009
Description: SCAP Banks Index increase greater than S&P 500 Index increase.
Feb 25: SCAP announced; Apr 24: SCAP white paper published; May 7: SCAP results
Source: Bloomberg
Middle panel
(16)
Title: SCAP Capital
Series: Supervisory Capital Assessment Program banks' Capital Raised and Capital Required
Horizon: January 29, 2009 - June 19, 2009
Description: Supervisory Capital Assessment Program banks' capital raised and capital required.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Estimates
Bottom panel
(17)
Title: US Libor-OIS Spreads
Series: 3-Month USD Libor less Overnight Indexed Swap and 12-Month USD Libor less Overnight Indexed Swap
Horizon: January 1, 2007 - June 19, 2009
Description: Swap spreads narrow.
Source: Bloomberg
Page 6
Top panel
(18)
Title: Federal Reserve Short-Term Liquidity Facilities
Series: Levels of the Primary Credit Facility, Primary Dealer Credit Facility, Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, Commercial Paper Funding Facility, Central Bank Liquidity Swaps, and Term Auction Facility
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 17, 2009
Description: Short-term facility assets continue to contract.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Middle panel
(19)
Title: ABS Issuance
Series: Asset-Backed Security Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility Eligible and Non-Eligible Issuance
Horizon: Q1 2007 - Q2 2009 as of June 10, 2009
Description: ABS issuance increases greatly after TALF subscriptions begin.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, JP Morgan Chase
Bottom panel
(20)
Title: AAA-Rated Asset-Backed Spreads
Series: 3-Year Prime Auto, 3-Year Credit Card, and CMBS Super Senior spreads
Horizon: January 1, 2008 - June 19, 2009
Description: Asset-backed spreads narrow after TALF subscriptions begin.
Sep 14: Lehman bankruptcy; Nov 25: TALF announced; Mar 19: First TALF Subscription
Source: JPMorgan Chase
Page 7
Top panel
(21)
Title: Balance Sheet Assets by Category
Series: Federal Reserve balance sheet assets categorized by All Other, Lending to Systemically Important Institutions, Short-Term Liquidity Facilities, Large-Scale Asset Purchases, and Legacy Treasuries
Horizon: August 1, 2008 - June 17, 2009
Description: Short-term liquidity facility assets decline while large-scale asset purchases increase.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Carpenter
Material for
FOMC Briefing on Projections of the Balance Sheet, the Monetary Base, and Federal Reserve Income
Seth Carpenter
June 23, 2009
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
Exhibit 1: Individual Balance Sheet Item Profiles
Asset Purchases and Federal Reserve Liquidity and Credit Facilities
Twelve line charts, each showing a date range from 39783 (December 2008, expressed as an integer in days from the beginning of the twentieth century) through 42705 (December 2016). Except as noted, each chart shows two curves, "Current" and "April" projections.
- Temporary holdings of longer-term Treasuries are depicted to increase from zero at the end of 2008 to a late-2009 peak in each of four projections: "baseline," "expanded purchases," "April baseline," and "April expanded purchases." Each of the baseline scenarios peaks at approximately $300 billion and decreases to a level around $50 billion by the end of 2016. The expanded scenarios peak around $750 billion and decrease to approximately $100 billion and $150 billion under the April and current projections, respectively.
- Agency debt is depicted to increase from its December 2008 level of $20 billion to a peak of $200 billion in early 2009, and then decrease to approximately $25 billion at the end of the projection period. In the April projection, agency debt remains at the $200 billion peak through the end of 2011 and then decreases to $25 billion by the end of the projection period, whereas the current projection depicts agency debt beginning to decline immediately following the peak.
- Agency MBS is depicted to increase from zero at the beginning of the period to a peak of just over $1200 billion in early 2009, and then decrease to $600 billion under the April projection and $800 billion under the current projection.
- Primary and secondary credit facilities decrease from over $90 billion in December 2008 to near zero by early 2011 and 2012 in the current and April projections, respectively.
- Term auction facility (TAF) credit decreases from over $400 billion to zero by the end of 2010 and 2011 in the current and April projections, respectively.
- Foreign central bank liquidity swaps are shown to decrease from over $500 billion at the beginning of the projection period to zero by the end of 2010 in both projections. The rate of decrease through 2009 is greater in the current projection than in the April projection.
- Credit extended to AIG is depicted to increase from the December 2008 level of just under $40 billion to approximately $45 billion in early 2009, and then to decrease to zero at the end of 2014 in both projections.
- Current projections for the three Maiden Lane facilities. Maiden Lane III is projected to decrease from over $25 billion to zero by the end of 2012, including a sharp drop of about $7 billion in mid-2009. Maiden Lane and Maiden Lane II are depicted to decrease from over $25 billion and $20 billion, respectively, to zero at the end of 2015.
- Loans extended through the first wave of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF v1.0) are depicted in both projections to increase from zero at the beginning of the projection period to $100 billion at the end of 2009. Under the April projection, TALF v1.0 maintains a $100 billion level through early 2012 and declines to zero by early 2013. The current projection shows TALF v1.0 increasing to $125 billion by early 2010, maintaining that level through mid-2012 and decreasing to zero by early 2014.
- For loans extended through subsequent waves of the TALF (TALF v2.0/3.0), the April projection shows credit outstanding rising from zero to $400 billion at the end of 2010, remaining at that level until early 2011, and falling to zero at the end of 2013. In the current projection, TALF v2.0/3.0 increases from zero to $50 billion at the end of 2010, remains at that level until mid-2014, and declines to zero at the end of 2015.
- Credit extended through the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) is depicted to decline from over $300 billion at the beginning of the projection period to zero at the end of 2010 under both the current and April projections. The rate of decrease through 2009 is greater in the current projection than in the April projection.
- Credit extended through the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Liquidity Facility (AMLF) is depicted in both projections to decrease from the December 2008 level of nearly $25 billion to around $5 billion in mid-2009. The April projection shows a gradual decline to zero at the end of 2010. In the current projection, AMLF spikes to a level over $25 billion in mid-2009, then decreases to a low level in early 2010, and to zero by the end of 2010.
Federal Reserve Liabilities and Capital
Four line charts, each showing a date range from 39783 (December 2008, expressed as an integer in days from the beginning of the twentieth century) through 42705 (December 2016).
- Federal Reserve notes are depicted to increase from their December 2008 level of just under $900 billion to over $1200 billion at the end of the period.
- Current and April projections are shown for the Treasury General Account (TGA) and the Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). The TGA declines from the December 2008 level of just over $100 billion to around $25 billion in early 2009. In the April projection, the TGA peaks in mid-2009 just below $100 billion and declines to $5 billion by the end of 2009. Under the current projection, the TGA peaks at a level over $130 billion in mid-2009, then dips below $25 billion and returns to a level above $100 billion again within a few months. Then, the current projection for the TGA declines to $5 billion by the end of 2009. The SFP drops from its December 2008 level of over $250 billion to $200 billion in mid-2009 in both projections. The level decreases to zero by the end of 2009 in the April projection, and by mid-2010 under the current projection.
- Capital is depicted to remain at a level of just over $40 billion through the entire period under the April projection, and to increase smoothly to a level of $129 billion at the end of the period under the current projection.
- Reserve balances are depicted under baseline and expanded purchases scenarios from the current and the April projections. In both of the April scenarios, reserve balances increase from their December 2008 level of around $750 billion to peak in late 2009 at nearly $2500 billion and $3000 billion, respectively. Both projections then decrease to approximately $25 billion by the end of 2015. In the current baseline and expanded scenarios, reserve balances peak in late 2009 over $1500 billion and $2000 billion, respectively, and decrease to approximately $25 billion and $100 billion, respectively, by the end of 2016.
*Corrected versions of these charts are available on pages 248-249 of 261.
Exhibit 2: Baseline Balance Sheet Projections
This exhibit provides a graphical description of the assumptions underlying the baseline balance sheet projections.
Top panel
Federal Reserve Assets
A line chart presents nine categories of assets: Treasury securities, Agency debt, Agency MBS, Repurchase agreements, TAF, Central bank swaps, TALF, Other loans and facilities, and Other assets. Each is depicted by a different color and the chart stacks the colors so that the share of the total that each asset represents is depicted. The date range for all projections is from 2006 to 2016. Total assets increase from their 2006 level of approximately $800 billion to peak in late 2009 at a level of approximately $2800 billion, and then decline fairly steadily until the end of 2016, ending at a level of approximately $1500 billion.
Bottom panel
Federal Reserve Liabilities and Capital
A stacked line chart presents six categories of liabilities and capital: Federal Reserve notes; Reverse repurchase agreements; Deposits, other than reserve balances; Reserve balances; Other liabilities; and Capital. Total liabilities and capital follow the same path as total assets.
Exhibit 3: Expanded Balance Sheet Projections
This exhibit is similar to Exhibit 2, but shows the assumptions underlying the expanded balance sheet projections.
Top panel
Federal Reserve Assets
A stacked line chart shows Federal Reserve assets, which in this expanded scenario peak in late 2009 at a level of approximately $3250 billion and decline steadily until the end of 2016, where they are at a level of approximately $1500 billion.
Bottom panel
Federal Reserve Liabilities and Capital
A stacked line chart shows Federal Reserve Liabilities and Capital, which follow the same pattern as the expanded scenario for assets.
Exhibit 4
Growth Rates for Monetary Base
Date | Baseline | Expanded Purchases |
April Baseline |
---|---|---|---|
Percent, annual rate | |||
Monthly | |||
Jun-09 | -52.1 | -52.1 | 60.2 |
Jul-09 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 131.9 |
Aug-09 | 99.3 | 99.3 | 133.9 |
Sep-09 | 97.3 | 97.3 | 120.5 |
Oct-09 | 103.1 | 148.3 | 98.1 |
Nov-09 | 95.7 | 173.1 | 79.9 |
Dec-09 | 102.1 | 163.8 | 71.1 |
Quarterly | |||
Q2 2009 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 38.4 |
Q3 2009 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 111.9 |
Q4 2009 | 108.2 | 157.0 | 107.3 |
Q1 2010 | 48.0 | 78.6 | 26.2 |
Q2 2010 | -7.1 | -6.7 | -17.2 |
Q3 2010 | -15.6 | -14.0 | -17.9 |
Q4 2010 | -19.0 | -16.9 | -18.8 |
Annual - period average | |||
2009 | 92.5 | 98.2 | 120.3 |
2010 | 32.5 | 51.3 | 34.4 |
2011 | -11.1 | -10.0 | -14.1 |
2012 | -9.0 | -10.0 | -14.4 |
2013 | -12.4 | -14.2 | -25.0 |
2014 | -9.3 | -11.2 | -19.7 |
2015 | -9.2 | -10.3 | -14.8 |
2016 | -7.7 | -10.2 | 2.3 |
Note: Not seasonally adjusted
Exhibit 5
Projected Federal Reserve Net Income
This exhibit has six line charts to describe three projections ("baseline," "market based," and "high interest rate"), each over a date range from 2008 to 2016. The three left-hand panels present net income and total expenses, each in a different color. These items are stacked and sum to show gross income. The right-hand panels show remittance and dividends, transfers, etc. in different colors. These items are stacked and sum to show net income.
Top-left panel
Baseline
In the baseline scenario, gross income is depicted to increase from its 2008 level of approximately $50 billion to peak in 2010 at nearly $90 billion and decline gradually through the end of the period to approximately $60 billion.
Top-right panel
Baseline
Baseline net income is depicted to increase from its December 2008 level of approximately $40 billion to peak in 2010 at approximately $80 billion, decrease through 2013 to approximately $45 billion, and then increase from 2014 through the end of the projection period to just over $50 billion.
Middle-left panel
Market based
In the market based scenario, gross income peaks in 2010 around $90 billion and decreases gradually through the end of the period, ending at a level of approximately $70 billion.
Middle-right panel
Market based
Net income is depicted to peak in 2010 at approximately $70 billion, decrease until 2012 to approximately $40 billion and then increase through the end of the projection period to approximately $60 billion.
Bottom-left panel
High interest rate
In the high interest rate scenario, gross income peaks in 2010 at around $110 billion and declines gradually through the end of the projection period to a level of about $80 billion.
Bottom-right panel
High interest rate
Net income is depicted declining sharply from approximately $45 billion in 2009 to a level of approximately negative $5 billion in 2011, then increasing gradually through the end of the period to about $50 billion.
Exhibit 6
Projected Mark-to-Market Losses on the SOMA Portfolio
Top panel
A line chart plots the same three scenarios that are used in Exhibit 5 from 2009 to 2016. The baseline scenario shows gains of as much as $50 billion on the portfolio through 2013, and then losses increasing through 2016 to just over $50 billion. In the market based scenario, losses increase from zero in 2009 to approximately $125 billion in 2013, and remain at that level through 2016. The high interest rate scenario depicts losses in 2009 of about $100 billion, increasing to a loss in 2011 of more than $250 billion, and then decreasing to a loss of less than $200 billion in 2016.
Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. English
Material for FOMC Briefing on Possible Effects of Very High Reserve Balances on Bank Balance Sheets
Bill English
June 23, 2009
Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)
Exhibit 1
Reserve Balances and Regulatory Leverage Ratios
Top-left panel
Reserve balances of depository institutions
Data plotted as curves. Reserve balances of depository institutions rises from about $40 billion in 2008:Q3 to about $800 billion in 2009:Q2. Thereafter, the data are projected. Under the Bluebook baseline scenario, reserve balances of depository institutions rise to a peak of about $1.7 trillion in 2010:Q1 and then gradually decline, reaching about $1.4 trillion in 2010:Q4. Under the Bluebook alternative scenario, reserve balances of depository institutions increase to a peak of about $2.1 trillion in 2010:Q1 and then gradually decline, reaching about $1.8 trillion in 2010:Q4.
Note. The data are quarterly averages in billions of dollars.
Source. Federal Reserve and staff estimates.
Top-right panel
Regulatory leverage ratio
- Definition:
\( \frac{Tier 1 capital}{Average total assets} \) - Ratio > 5.0 for a "well capitalized" bank
Leverage Ratio Projections
Middle-left panel
Projection assumptions
- Reserve balances expand in line with Bluebook scenarios
- Other assets unchanged
- Tier 1 capital declines
Middle-right panel
Baseline results
Actual 2009:Q1 |
Projected 2010:Q1 |
|
---|---|---|
Tier 1 capital | 836 | 790 |
Reserve balances | 491 | 982 |
Average total assets | 10,811 | 11,302 |
Leverage ratio (aggregate; percent) | 7.73 | 6.99 |
Note. Baseline scenario without any capital downstreamed to banks after 2009:Q1. All commercial banks with reserve balances.
Source. Call Reports and staff estimates.
Bottom-left panel
Aggregate leverage ratio of commercial banks with reserve balances
Data plotted as curves. The aggregate leverage ratio of commercial banks with reserve balances moves in a narrow range around 7.5 percent between 1999:Q1 and 2009:Q1. Thereafter, the data are projected one year ahead, for the 2010:Q1 quarter. For the projection under the Bluebook baseline scenario, the aggregate leverage ratio of commercial banks with reserve balances is 6.99 percent in 2010:Q1. For the projection under the Bluebook alternative scenario, the aggregate leverage ratio of commercial banks with reserve balances is 6.83 percent in 2010:Q1. The projections are repeated under the assumption that all capital raised as a result of the SCAP is downstreamed to subsidiary banks. Under this assumption and for the projection under the Bluebook baseline scenario, the aggregate leverage ratio of commercial banks with reserve balances is 7.60 percent in 2010:Q1. Under this assumption and for the projection under the Bluebook alternative scenario, the aggregate leverage ratio of commercial banks with reserve balances is 7.43 percent in 2010:Q1.
Note. The data are quarterly in percent. A shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001-November 2001. A vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007.
Source. Call Reports and staff estimates.
Bottom-right panel
Other results
- Broadly similar results for BHCs
- Leverage ratios for some individual banks could fall to low levels relative to regulatory norms
- Individual institutions can take steps to reduce unwanted reserves
Exhibit 2
Qualitative Information and Policy Options
Top panel
Information from consultations with Federal Reserve System staff
- Banking organizations have not expressed material concerns about their reserve balances
- Some banks have maintained high levels of reserve balances as a liquidity buffer
- Some banks have profited by exploiting the spread between the rate paid on excess reserves and the cost of borrowing
- Banks thought that they could reduce their reserve balances if they chose
- Banking organizations have not discussed with System staff the possible effects of increased systemwide reserves
Bottom-left panel
Summary
- Depository institutions should not be significantly adversely affected by the anticipated levels of reserve balances
- No policy response appears necessary at this time
- Considerable uncertainty remains
- Staff will continue to monitor the impact on depository institutions
Bottom-right panel
Policy options
- Option 1: Drain reserves
- Option 2: Exclude reserve balances from leverage ratio for all banking institutions
- Option 3: Exclude reserve balances from leverage ratio for selected banking institutions
- Option 4: Issue supervisory guidance
Appendix 4: Materials used by Messrs. Clouse and Hilton
Material for FOMC Briefing on Reserve Management Tools to Target a Higher Policy Rate
Jim Clouse
Spence Hilton
June 23, 2009
Class I FOMC - Restricted-Controlled (FR)
Exhibit 1
This exhibit contains three line charts that depict hypothetical demand and supply curves in the reserve market to illustrate the effects of various reserve management tools.
Top panel
Reserve Market
The chart displays a hypothetical demand for reserves, with the funds rate on the vertical axis and reserve balances on the horizontal axis. The hypothetical demand curve asymptotes to the level of the rate paid on excess reserves--the so-called IOER rate--at high levels of reserve balances. A second demand curve on the same chart shows what the demand curve might have looked like in the last quarter of 2008. This demand curve drops below the level of the IOER rate at high levels of reserve balances. With this demand curve, a rapid expansion of reserve balances such as that late in 2008 would push the federal funds rate below the IOER rate.
Middle panel
Demand Side Tools
The chart displays the effect of various tools that might be employed to keep the funds rate close to the target rate even with high levels of reserve balances. The tools described in this panel are those that strengthen or shape the demand curve including increases in reserve requirements, a system of voluntary requirements, payment of interest on balances held by the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), and collateralized funds transactions. The chart shows that these tools would tend to shift the demand curve to the right, or flatten the demand curve at high levels of reserve balances, or both. With a fixed quantity of reserves, these tools should then put upward pressure on the funds rate.
Bottom panel
Supply Side Tools
The chart displays the effects of various tools focused on the supply of reserves. These tools include reverse RPs, term deposits, issuance of so-called "Fed bills," an expanded supplementary finance program, asset sales, or reductions in liquidity programs. In the diagram, all of these tools would shift the supply of reserves to the left and so put upward pressure on the funds rate.
Appendix 5: Materials used by Mr. Madigan
Material for Briefing on Staff Proposal Regarding Liquidity Facilities
Brian Madigan
June 23, 2009
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
Staff Proposal for Extension of and Modifications to Various Liquidity Facilities
13(3)i | Extendii | Near-term Modification | Longer-term Proposal | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Depository institution facilities | ||||
1. Primary credit | NA | None | Increase spread, eliminate term loans | |
2. TAF | NA |
|
One small monthly or quarterly auction | |
3. Foreign currency swaps | Yes | None | Allow to expire on 2/1/10, but study possible longer-term facility | |
Primary dealer facilities | ||||
4. PDCF | Yes | Yes | Increase haircuts for most types of investment-grade and noninvestment-grade collateral |
|
5. TSLF | Yes | Yes |
|
Allow to expire on 2/1/10 |
Specific market and institution facilities | ||||
6. AMLF | Yes | Yes | Require that ABCP pledged as collateral has been purchased from a money fund experiencing material redemptions. | Allow to expire on 2/1/10 |
7. CPFF | Yes | Yes | None | Allow to expire on 2/1/10 |
8. MMIFF | Yes | None | Allow to expire on 10/30/09 | |
9. TALF | Yes | None | ||
10. GSE facilityiii | NA | None | Rescind |
NA--not applicable.
i Relies on Section13(3) authority. Return to table
ii Extend facility to February 1, 2010. Return to table
iii GSE facility was approved under Section 13(13) of the Federal Reserve Act. Return to table
Appendix 6: Materials used by Messrs. Kiley and Sheets
Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)
Exhibit 1
Recent Indicators
Top-left panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment
Period | Change |
---|---|
January 2005 | 92.00 |
February 2005 | 158.33 |
March 2005 | 157.33 |
April 2005 | 215.67 |
May 2005 | 202.67 |
June 2005 | 242.67 |
July 2005 | 233.00 |
August 2005 | 235.00 |
September 2005 | 185.00 |
October 2005 | 139.00 |
November 2005 | 187.00 |
December 2005 | 203.33 |
January 2006 | 263.00 |
February 2006 | 238.00 |
March 2006 | 272.00 |
April 2006 | 215.67 |
May 2006 | 134.00 |
June 2006 | 67.33 |
July 2006 | 72.33 |
August 2006 | 111.33 |
September 2006 | 125.67 |
October 2006 | 101.33 |
November 2006 | 138.33 |
December 2006 | 178.33 |
January 2007 | 202.33 |
February 2007 | 128.00 |
March 2007 | 110.33 |
April 2007 | 64.00 |
May 2007 | 99.00 |
June 2007 | 50.00 |
July 2007 | 51.67 |
August 2007 | -16.33 |
September 2007 | -3.67 |
October 2007 | 35.33 |
November 2007 | 122.67 |
December 2007 | 131.33 |
January 2008 | 56.00 |
February 2008 | -64.00 |
March 2008 | -136.67 |
April 2008 | -162.00 |
May 2008 | -162.00 |
June 2008 | -179.67 |
July 2008 | -170.67 |
August 2008 | -177.33 |
September 2008 | -212.33 |
October 2008 | -292.67 |
November 2008 | -428.33 |
December 2008 | -551.67 |
January 2009 | -673.33 |
February 2009 | -702.33 |
March 2009 | -695.00 |
April 2009 | -644.00 |
May 2009 | -527.33 |
Note: Three-month moving average.
Top-right panel
Manufacturing IP
Period | Percent |
---|---|
January 2005 | 5.40 |
February 2005 | 8.93 |
March 2005 | 4.36 |
April 2005 | 2.02 |
May 2005 | 0.70 |
June 2005 | 3.04 |
July 2005 | 2.46 |
August 2005 | 1.76 |
September 2005 | -2.72 |
October 2005 | 3.58 |
November 2005 | 5.84 |
December 2005 | 10.36 |
January 2006 | 6.80 |
February 2006 | 2.03 |
March 2006 | 1.17 |
April 2006 | 0.33 |
May 2006 | 0.33 |
June 2006 | 2.29 |
July 2006 | 0.44 |
August 2006 | 3.01 |
September 2006 | 0.77 |
October 2006 | -1.45 |
November 2006 | -3.36 |
December 2006 | 2.20 |
January 2007 | 1.62 |
February 2007 | 3.31 |
March 2007 | 0.23 |
April 2007 | 4.03 |
May 2007 | 3.02 |
June 2007 | 2.53 |
July 2007 | 3.60 |
August 2007 | 1.69 |
September 2007 | 2.00 |
October 2007 | -1.90 |
November 2007 | 1.32 |
December 2007 | 0.92 |
January 2008 | 1.60 |
February 2008 | -1.87 |
March 2008 | -3.34 |
April 2008 | -5.83 |
May 2008 | -4.60 |
June 2008 | -5.78 |
July 2008 | -3.31 |
August 2008 | -6.19 |
September 2008 | -18.00 |
October 2008 | -16.08 |
November 2008 | -20.38 |
December 2008 | -17.89 |
January 2009 | -27.41 |
February 2009 | -20.74 |
March 2009 | -17.19 |
April 2009 | -9.74 |
May 2009 | -13.00 |
Note: Three-month percent changes.
Middle-left panel
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Period | Real PCE |
---|---|
January 2005 | 7683.70 |
February 2005 | 7706.48 |
March 2005 | 7702.44 |
April 2005 | 7752.24 |
May 2005 | 7731.55 |
June 2005 | 7815.45 |
July 2005 | 7863.71 |
August 2005 | 7837.29 |
September 2005 | 7813.30 |
October 2005 | 7836.95 |
November 2005 | 7858.52 |
December 2005 | 7899.29 |
January 2006 | 7921.20 |
February 2006 | 7959.07 |
March 2006 | 7962.04 |
April 2006 | 7989.80 |
May 2006 | 8004.29 |
June 2006 | 8012.24 |
July 2006 | 8052.28 |
August 2006 | 8037.65 |
September 2006 | 8049.11 |
October 2006 | 8101.14 |
November 2006 | 8105.38 |
December 2006 | 8153.23 |
January 2007 | 8180.86 |
February 2007 | 8209.37 |
March 2007 | 8201.15 |
April 2007 | 8224.94 |
May 2007 | 8240.78 |
June 2007 | 8246.24 |
July 2007 | 8264.03 |
August 2007 | 8286.81 |
September 2007 | 8284.58 |
October 2007 | 8275.55 |
November 2007 | 8311.81 |
December 2007 | 8307.23 |
January 2008 | 8317.27 |
February 2008 | 8304.60 |
March 2008 | 8326.23 |
April 2008 | 8334.59 |
May 2008 | 8355.08 |
June 2008 | 8334.39 |
July 2008 | 8281.42 |
August 2008 | 8269.28 |
September 2008 | 8231.01 |
October 2008 | 8167.65 |
November 2008 | 8196.36 |
December 2008 | 8147.50 |
January 2009 | 8201.96 |
February 2009 | 8205.46 |
March 2009 | 8186.66 |
April 2009 | 8181.07 |
Period | Real PCE |
---|---|
2005:Q1 | 7697.52 |
2005:Q2 | 7766.39 |
2005:Q3 | 7838.10 |
2005:Q4 | 7864.92 |
2006:Q1 | 7947.41 |
2006:Q2 | 8002.14 |
2006:Q3 | 8046.35 |
2006:Q4 | 8119.94 |
2007:Q1 | 8197.17 |
2007:Q2 | 8237.27 |
2007:Q3 | 8278.52 |
2007:Q4 | 8298.20 |
2008:Q1 | 8316.06 |
2008:Q2 | 8341.33 |
2008:Q3 | 8260.59 |
2008:Q4 | 8170.49 |
2009:Q1 | 8198.05 |
Staff forecast | |
2009:Q2 | 8192.63 |
Middle-right panel
Sales of Single-Family Homes
Period | New homes | Existing homes |
---|---|---|
January 2000 | 0.87 | 4.64 |
February 2000 | 0.86 | 4.57 |
March 2000 | 0.90 | 4.64 |
April 2000 | 0.84 | 4.63 |
May 2000 | 0.86 | 4.57 |
June 2000 | 0.79 | 4.57 |
July 2000 | 0.89 | 4.55 |
August 2000 | 0.85 | 4.60 |
September 2000 | 0.91 | 4.69 |
October 2000 | 0.93 | 4.65 |
November 2000 | 0.88 | 4.74 |
December 2000 | 0.98 | 4.52 |
January 2001 | 0.94 | 4.55 |
February 2001 | 0.96 | 4.66 |
March 2001 | 0.94 | 4.83 |
April 2001 | 0.91 | 4.73 |
May 2001 | 0.89 | 4.68 |
June 2001 | 0.88 | 4.82 |
July 2001 | 0.88 | 4.81 |
August 2001 | 0.87 | 4.85 |
September 2001 | 0.85 | 4.63 |
October 2001 | 0.87 | 4.65 |
November 2001 | 0.92 | 4.65 |
December 2001 | 0.98 | 4.86 |
January 2002 | 0.88 | 5.22 |
February 2002 | 0.95 | 5.20 |
March 2002 | 0.92 | 4.98 |
April 2002 | 0.94 | 5.00 |
May 2002 | 0.98 | 4.97 |
June 2002 | 0.96 | 4.86 |
July 2002 | 0.96 | 4.78 |
August 2002 | 1.01 | 4.73 |
September 2002 | 1.04 | 4.87 |
October 2002 | 1.01 | 5.02 |
November 2002 | 1.02 | 5.06 |
December 2002 | 1.05 | 5.28 |
January 2003 | 1.00 | 5.33 |
February 2003 | 0.94 | 5.29 |
March 2003 | 1.00 | 5.17 |
April 2003 | 1.01 | 5.15 |
May 2003 | 1.08 | 5.24 |
June 2003 | 1.19 | 5.24 |
July 2003 | 1.17 | 5.53 |
August 2003 | 1.21 | 5.76 |
September 2003 | 1.13 | 5.80 |
October 2003 | 1.14 | 5.63 |
November 2003 | 1.09 | 5.48 |
December 2003 | 1.13 | 5.70 |
January 2004 | 1.17 | 5.51 |
February 2004 | 1.16 | 5.63 |
March 2004 | 1.28 | 5.86 |
April 2004 | 1.19 | 5.92 |
May 2004 | 1.24 | 6.03 |
June 2004 | 1.18 | 6.09 |
July 2004 | 1.09 | 6.00 |
August 2004 | 1.18 | 5.87 |
September 2004 | 1.21 | 5.88 |
October 2004 | 1.31 | 6.02 |
November 2004 | 1.18 | 6.11 |
December 2004 | 1.24 | 6.05 |
January 2005 | 1.20 | 6.20 |
February 2005 | 1.32 | 6.02 |
March 2005 | 1.33 | 6.10 |
April 2005 | 1.26 | 6.23 |
May 2005 | 1.29 | 6.18 |
June 2005 | 1.27 | 6.25 |
July 2005 | 1.39 | 6.24 |
August 2005 | 1.26 | 6.31 |
September 2005 | 1.24 | 6.34 |
October 2005 | 1.34 | 6.21 |
November 2005 | 1.21 | 6.14 |
December 2005 | 1.24 | 5.95 |
January 2006 | 1.17 | 5.88 |
February 2006 | 1.06 | 5.99 |
March 2006 | 1.12 | 5.99 |
April 2006 | 1.12 | 5.87 |
May 2006 | 1.09 | 5.75 |
June 2006 | 1.07 | 5.70 |
July 2006 | 0.97 | 5.53 |
August 2006 | 1.04 | 5.56 |
September 2006 | 1.02 | 5.50 |
October 2006 | 0.94 | 5.59 |
November 2006 | 1.00 | 5.57 |
December 2006 | 1.00 | 5.61 |
January 2007 | 0.89 | 5.57 |
February 2007 | 0.83 | 5.75 |
March 2007 | 0.83 | 5.30 |
April 2007 | 0.89 | 5.19 |
May 2007 | 0.84 | 5.14 |
June 2007 | 0.79 | 5.03 |
July 2007 | 0.78 | 4.99 |
August 2007 | 0.70 | 4.81 |
September 2007 | 0.69 | 4.47 |
October 2007 | 0.73 | 4.43 |
November 2007 | 0.64 | 4.46 |
December 2007 | 0.62 | 4.38 |
January 2008 | 0.61 | 4.36 |
February 2008 | 0.58 | 4.39 |
March 2008 | 0.51 | 4.35 |
April 2008 | 0.53 | 4.30 |
May 2008 | 0.51 | 4.38 |
June 2008 | 0.49 | 4.31 |
July 2008 | 0.50 | 4.39 |
August 2008 | 0.44 | 4.37 |
September 2008 | 0.44 | 4.54 |
October 2008 | 0.41 | 4.39 |
November 2008 | 0.39 | 4.06 |
December 2008 | 0.37 | 4.25 |
January 2009 | 0.33 | 4.05 |
February 2009 | 0.35 | 4.22 |
March 2009 | 0.34 | 4.08 |
April 2009 | 0.34 | 4.17 |
May 2009 | ND | 4.25 |
Bottom-left panel
Orders and Shipments of Nondefense Capital Goods*
Period | Orders | Shipments |
---|---|---|
January 2005 | 55.62 | 54.71 |
February 2005 | 56.68 | 55.50 |
March 2005 | 57.12 | 55.84 |
April 2005 | 56.93 | 55.69 |
May 2005 | 56.85 | 56.06 |
June 2005 | 57.77 | 56.50 |
July 2005 | 57.90 | 56.78 |
August 2005 | 58.81 | 57.00 |
September 2005 | 58.82 | 57.38 |
October 2005 | 59.59 | 58.00 |
November 2005 | 59.79 | 58.58 |
December 2005 | 60.32 | 59.26 |
January 2006 | 61.34 | 59.97 |
February 2006 | 62.26 | 60.63 |
March 2006 | 63.75 | 61.30 |
April 2006 | 63.95 | 61.80 |
May 2006 | 64.45 | 62.32 |
June 2006 | 64.31 | 62.42 |
July 2006 | 64.80 | 62.57 |
August 2006 | 64.87 | 62.71 |
September 2006 | 65.80 | 62.70 |
October 2006 | 65.94 | 62.40 |
November 2006 | 66.17 | 62.24 |
December 2006 | 65.19 | 62.24 |
January 2007 | 63.89 | 61.45 |
February 2007 | 62.43 | 60.83 |
March 2007 | 61.87 | 60.36 |
April 2007 | 62.86 | 61.10 |
May 2007 | 63.64 | 61.53 |
June 2007 | 63.46 | 61.69 |
July 2007 | 63.20 | 61.62 |
August 2007 | 63.30 | 61.67 |
September 2007 | 63.63 | 62.17 |
October 2007 | 63.18 | 62.45 |
November 2007 | 62.66 | 62.50 |
December 2007 | 63.13 | 62.52 |
January 2008 | 63.88 | 62.78 |
February 2008 | 64.44 | 62.65 |
March 2008 | 63.85 | 62.45 |
April 2008 | 64.09 | 62.55 |
May 2008 | 64.47 | 62.96 |
June 2008 | 65.42 | 63.35 |
July 2008 | 65.79 | 63.59 |
August 2008 | 65.71 | 63.34 |
September 2008 | 64.54 | 63.31 |
October 2008 | 61.90 | 62.43 |
November 2008 | 59.97 | 61.74 |
December 2008 | 57.62 | 60.71 |
January 2009 | 54.40 | 58.57 |
February 2009 | 51.64 | 56.66 |
March 2009 | 49.80 | 54.43 |
April 2009 | 49.75 | 53.59 |
* Excluding aircraft. Return to text
Note: Three-month moving average.
Bottom-right panel
Real GDP Forecast
Exhibit 2
Medium-Term Outlook
Top panel
Factors Affecting GDP Forecast
- Inventory dynamics provide a lift in the second half of this year.
- Housing stabilizes and we expect construction to turn up next year.
- Risk premiums on corporate equity and debt decline further, contributing to gains in wealth and a lower cost of capital.
Middle-left panel
Contributions to Growth in Real GDP
Period | Change in business inventories | Final sales |
---|---|---|
2008:H2 | 0.36 | -3.83 |
2009:H1 | -1.64 | -1.62 |
2009:H2 | 1.76 | -0.62 |
2010 | 0.35 | 2.61 |
Middle-right panel
Contribution of Wealth to PCE Growth
Bottom-left panel
BFI and the Accelerator
Period | NFB output (Percent change) |
BFI share (Percent) |
---|---|---|
1990:Q1 | 3.69 | 21.14 |
1990:Q2 | 2.13 | 20.50 |
1990:Q3 | 2.71 | 20.78 |
1990:Q4 | 2.20 | 20.62 |
1991:Q1 | 1.19 | 20.15 |
1991:Q2 | -0.22 | 19.64 |
1991:Q3 | -2.17 | 19.28 |
1991:Q4 | -1.52 | 18.97 |
1992:Q1 | -0.66 | 18.53 |
1992:Q2 | 1.08 | 19.04 |
1992:Q3 | 3.10 | 19.03 |
1992:Q4 | 3.37 | 19.29 |
1993:Q1 | 3.96 | 19.36 |
1993:Q2 | 4.99 | 19.82 |
1993:Q3 | 3.86 | 19.70 |
1993:Q4 | 3.37 | 20.30 |
1994:Q1 | 3.06 | 20.35 |
1994:Q2 | 3.13 | 20.26 |
1994:Q3 | 4.16 | 20.40 |
1994:Q4 | 5.17 | 20.93 |
1995:Q1 | 4.84 | 21.62 |
1995:Q2 | 4.87 | 21.51 |
1995:Q3 | 4.15 | 21.30 |
1995:Q4 | 2.74 | 21.42 |
1996:Q1 | 3.38 | 21.52 |
1996:Q2 | 2.69 | 21.53 |
1996:Q3 | 3.12 | 21.95 |
1996:Q4 | 4.84 | 21.96 |
1997:Q1 | 4.73 | 22.00 |
1997:Q2 | 5.21 | 21.97 |
1997:Q3 | 5.19 | 22.59 |
1997:Q4 | 5.11 | 22.29 |
1998:Q1 | 5.48 | 22.55 |
1998:Q2 | 4.97 | 22.85 |
1998:Q3 | 5.58 | 22.62 |
1998:Q4 | 4.49 | 22.75 |
1999:Q1 | 4.35 | 22.81 |
1999:Q2 | 5.40 | 22.99 |
1999:Q3 | 4.93 | 23.03 |
1999:Q4 | 5.13 | 22.49 |
2000:Q1 | 5.22 | 22.96 |
2000:Q2 | 5.35 | 23.12 |
2000:Q3 | 4.36 | 23.18 |
2000:Q4 | 5.30 | 22.87 |
2001:Q1 | 3.64 | 22.45 |
2001:Q2 | 2.13 | 21.45 |
2001:Q3 | 1.87 | 21.19 |
2001:Q4 | 0.35 | 20.44 |
2002:Q1 | -0.17 | 19.60 |
2002:Q2 | -0.42 | 19.20 |
2002:Q3 | 0.73 | 18.93 |
2002:Q4 | 0.77 | 18.76 |
2003:Q1 | 2.30 | 18.45 |
2003:Q2 | 2.04 | 18.71 |
2003:Q3 | 1.47 | 18.57 |
2003:Q4 | 2.20 | 18.59 |
2004:Q1 | 4.10 | 18.22 |
2004:Q2 | 4.48 | 18.52 |
2004:Q3 | 4.84 | 18.91 |
2004:Q4 | 4.99 | 19.27 |
2005:Q1 | 3.26 | 19.26 |
2005:Q2 | 3.51 | 19.50 |
2005:Q3 | 3.79 | 19.51 |
2005:Q4 | 3.28 | 19.57 |
2006:Q1 | 3.51 | 20.00 |
2006:Q2 | 3.18 | 20.09 |
2006:Q3 | 3.73 | 20.21 |
2006:Q4 | 3.71 | 20.10 |
2007:Q1 | 2.58 | 19.99 |
2007:Q2 | 2.61 | 20.09 |
2007:Q3 | 0.92 | 20.05 |
2007:Q4 | 1.63 | 20.10 |
2008:Q1 | 2.92 | 19.97 |
2008:Q2 | 2.36 | 19.81 |
2008:Q3 | 2.82 | 19.72 |
2008:Q4 | 2.09 | 19.04 |
2009:Q1 | 0.27 | 17.07 |
Forecast | ||
2009:Q2 | -1.85 | 16.63 |
2009:Q3 | -3.91 | 16.07 |
2009:Q4 | -4.97 | 15.55 |
2010:Q1 | -4.40 | 15.26 |
2010:Q2 | -1.76 | 15.21 |
2010:Q3 | 0.70 | 15.30 |
2010:Q4 | 1.91 | 15.52 |
Note: BFI share equals nominal BFI divided by nominal nonfarm business (NFB) output. NFB output growth is measured as the percent change from four quarters earlier, lagged two quarters.
Bottom-right panel
Real GDP Forecast
Exhibit 3
Inflation
Top-left panel
PCE Price Index
Total | Core | ||
---|---|---|---|
Percent change, a.r.: | |||
2008: | Q4 | -4.9 | 0.9 |
2009: | Q1 | -1.0 | 1.5 |
Q2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | |
Monthly percent change: | |||
2009: | March | 0.0 | 0.2 |
April | 0.1 | 0.3 | |
May | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Top-right panel
Unemployment Rate
Period | Unemployment Rate | April GB | NAIRU | April GB NAIRU |
---|---|---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 5.28 | 5.28 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
2005:Q2 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 4.83 | 4.83 |
2005:Q3 | 4.97 | 4.97 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
2005:Q4 | 4.94 | 4.94 | 4.83 | 4.83 |
2006:Q1 | 4.71 | 4.71 | 4.82 | 4.82 |
2006:Q2 | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.83 | 4.83 |
2006:Q3 | 4.65 | 4.65 | 4.81 | 4.81 |
2006:Q4 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 4.82 | 4.82 |
2007:Q1 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.82 | 4.82 |
2007:Q2 | 4.53 | 4.53 | 4.80 | 4.80 |
2007:Q3 | 4.67 | 4.67 | 4.78 | 4.78 |
2007:Q4 | 4.78 | 4.78 | 4.78 | 4.78 |
2008:Q1 | 4.94 | 4.94 | 4.77 | 4.77 |
2008:Q2 | 5.37 | 5.37 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
2008:Q3 | 6.05 | 6.05 | 4.82 | 4.75 |
2008:Q4 | 6.86 | 6.86 | 4.88 | 4.75 |
2009:Q1 | 8.06 | 8.06 | 4.95 | 4.76 |
Forecast | ||||
2009:Q2 | 9.27 | 9.01 | 5.01 | 4.82 |
2009:Q3 | 9.83 | 9.22 | 5.01 | 4.82 |
2009:Q4 | 9.98 | 9.26 | 5.01 | 4.82 |
2010:Q1 | 9.98 | 9.25 | 5.01 | 4.82 |
2010:Q2 | 9.95 | 9.22 | 5.01 | 4.82 |
2010:Q3 | 9.81 | 9.14 | 5.01 | 4.82 |
2010:Q4 | 9.66 | 9.07 | 5.01 | 4.82 |
Middle-left panel
PCE Energy Prices
Period | Percent | April GB |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 13.06 | ND |
2005:Q2 | 9.03 | ND |
2005:Q3 | 23.72 | ND |
2005:Q4 | 23.10 | ND |
2006:Q1 | 20.40 | ND |
2006:Q2 | 21.71 | ND |
2006:Q3 | 9.81 | ND |
2006:Q4 | -3.98 | ND |
2007:Q1 | 0.47 | ND |
2007:Q2 | 4.05 | ND |
2007:Q3 | 1.23 | ND |
2007:Q4 | 19.08 | ND |
2008:Q1 | 20.05 | ND |
2008:Q2 | 19.69 | ND |
2008:Q3 | 27.47 | ND |
2008:Q4 | -8.54 | ND |
2009:Q1 | -21.64 | -21.66 |
Forecast | ||
2009:Q2 | -26.91 | -28.82 |
2009:Q3 | -24.25 | -31.62 |
2009:Q4 | 1.28 | -8.87 |
2010:Q1 | 15.09 | 3.90 |
2010:Q2 | 17.48 | 9.37 |
2010:Q3 | 6.72 | 7.63 |
2010:Q4 | 4.47 | 6.10 |
Middle-right panel
Core Nonfuel Import Prices
Period | Percent | April GB |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
2005:Q2 | 2.88 | 2.88 |
2005:Q3 | 2.24 | 2.24 |
2005:Q4 | 2.22 | 2.22 |
2006:Q1 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
2006:Q2 | 1.68 | 1.68 |
2006:Q3 | 2.74 | 2.74 |
2006:Q4 | 2.37 | 2.37 |
2007:Q1 | 2.79 | 2.79 |
2007:Q2 | 2.91 | 2.91 |
2007:Q3 | 2.71 | 2.71 |
2007:Q4 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
2008:Q1 | 4.78 | 4.78 |
2008:Q2 | 6.49 | 6.49 |
2008:Q3 | 6.89 | 6.89 |
2008:Q4 | 3.52 | 3.52 |
2009:Q1 | -0.99 | -1.12 |
Forecast | ||
2009:Q2 | -3.71 | -4.33 |
2009:Q3 | -4.22 | -5.56 |
2009:Q4 | -1.61 | -3.32 |
2010:Q1 | 1.16 | -0.56 |
2010:Q2 | 1.69 | 0.49 |
2010:Q3 | 1.32 | 0.93 |
2010:Q4 | 1.08 | 1.07 |
Bottom panel
PCE Price Index
Period | Core | Total |
---|---|---|
2000:Q1 | 1.85 | 2.70 |
2000:Q2 | 1.74 | 2.53 |
2000:Q3 | 1.62 | 2.44 |
2000:Q4 | 1.53 | 2.28 |
2001:Q1 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
2001:Q2 | 1.82 | 2.37 |
2001:Q3 | 1.95 | 2.05 |
2001:Q4 | 2.22 | 1.74 |
2002:Q1 | 1.84 | 1.15 |
2002:Q2 | 1.79 | 1.21 |
2002:Q3 | 1.89 | 1.52 |
2002:Q4 | 1.55 | 1.79 |
2003:Q1 | 1.51 | 2.32 |
2003:Q2 | 1.37 | 1.79 |
2003:Q3 | 1.35 | 1.94 |
2003:Q4 | 1.44 | 1.89 |
2004:Q1 | 1.77 | 2.00 |
2004:Q2 | 2.12 | 2.80 |
2004:Q3 | 2.10 | 2.69 |
2004:Q4 | 2.23 | 3.09 |
2005:Q1 | 2.25 | 2.82 |
2005:Q2 | 2.11 | 2.50 |
2005:Q3 | 2.08 | 3.19 |
2005:Q4 | 2.15 | 3.26 |
2006:Q1 | 2.06 | 3.08 |
2006:Q2 | 2.27 | 3.26 |
2006:Q3 | 2.45 | 2.86 |
2006:Q4 | 2.29 | 1.90 |
2007:Q1 | 2.35 | 2.31 |
2007:Q2 | 2.07 | 2.40 |
2007:Q3 | 2.01 | 2.24 |
2007:Q4 | 2.20 | 3.45 |
2008:Q1 | 2.18 | 3.51 |
2008:Q2 | 2.26 | 3.67 |
2008:Q3 | 2.34 | 4.30 |
2008:Q4 | 1.94 | 1.92 |
2009:Q1 | 1.75 | 0.77 |
Forecast | ||
2009:Q2 | 1.78 | 0.11 |
2009:Q3 | 1.44 | -0.26 |
2009:Q4 | 1.41 | 1.42 |
2010:Q1 | 1.23 | 2.07 |
2010:Q2 | 0.86 | 1.99 |
2010:Q3 | 0.79 | 1.36 |
2010:Q4 | 0.77 | 1.14 |
Exhibit 4
Risk I: Uncertainty Regarding Resource Utilization
Top-left panel
Output and Unemployment Gaps
Period | Output (Percent) |
Unemployment (Percentage points, inverted scale) |
---|---|---|
1987:Q1 | -1.57 | 0.67 |
1987:Q2 | -1.23 | 0.41 |
1987:Q3 | -1.08 | 0.17 |
1987:Q4 | -0.11 | 0.11 |
1988:Q1 | -0.38 | -0.08 |
1988:Q2 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
1988:Q3 | -0.10 | -0.23 |
1988:Q4 | 0.46 | -0.38 |
1989:Q1 | 0.71 | -0.44 |
1989:Q2 | 0.61 | -0.45 |
1989:Q3 | 0.56 | -0.32 |
1989:Q4 | 0.06 | -0.18 |
1990:Q1 | 0.45 | -0.38 |
1990:Q2 | -0.05 | -0.36 |
1990:Q3 | -0.70 | 0.07 |
1990:Q4 | -2.11 | 0.51 |
1991:Q1 | -3.27 | 1.01 |
1991:Q2 | -3.28 | 1.23 |
1991:Q3 | -3.45 | 1.37 |
1991:Q4 | -3.64 | 1.57 |
1992:Q1 | -3.26 | 1.92 |
1992:Q2 | -2.95 | 2.14 |
1992:Q3 | -2.63 | 2.15 |
1992:Q4 | -2.19 | 1.97 |
1993:Q1 | -2.72 | 1.80 |
1993:Q2 | -2.86 | 1.73 |
1993:Q3 | -3.01 | 1.45 |
1993:Q4 | -2.32 | 1.28 |
1994:Q1 | -1.96 | 1.17 |
1994:Q2 | -1.32 | 0.79 |
1994:Q3 | -1.41 | 0.62 |
1994:Q4 | -0.90 | 0.24 |
1995:Q1 | -1.28 | 0.15 |
1995:Q2 | -1.75 | 0.36 |
1995:Q3 | -1.64 | 0.37 |
1995:Q4 | -1.61 | 0.31 |
1996:Q1 | -1.63 | 0.23 |
1996:Q2 | -0.73 | 0.25 |
1996:Q3 | -0.62 | 0.07 |
1996:Q4 | -0.19 | 0.08 |
1997:Q1 | -0.20 | -0.01 |
1997:Q2 | 0.53 | -0.19 |
1997:Q3 | 0.99 | -0.27 |
1997:Q4 | 0.94 | -0.45 |
1998:Q1 | 1.19 | -0.59 |
1998:Q2 | 1.00 | -0.79 |
1998:Q3 | 1.29 | -0.69 |
1998:Q4 | 1.94 | -0.77 |
1999:Q1 | 1.89 | -0.87 |
1999:Q2 | 1.82 | -0.86 |
1999:Q3 | 2.08 | -0.95 |
1999:Q4 | 2.94 | -1.06 |
2000:Q1 | 2.32 | -1.12 |
2000:Q2 | 2.99 | -1.21 |
2000:Q3 | 2.00 | -1.10 |
2000:Q4 | 1.64 | -1.20 |
2001:Q1 | 0.70 | -0.88 |
2001:Q2 | 0.19 | -0.65 |
2001:Q3 | -0.97 | -0.23 |
2001:Q4 | -1.39 | 0.49 |
2002:Q1 | -1.47 | 0.70 |
2002:Q2 | -1.69 | 0.81 |
2002:Q3 | -1.85 | 0.72 |
2002:Q4 | -2.56 | 0.84 |
2003:Q1 | -2.96 | 0.98 |
2003:Q2 | -2.81 | 1.30 |
2003:Q3 | -1.71 | 1.22 |
2003:Q4 | -1.76 | 0.92 |
2004:Q1 | -1.56 | 0.82 |
2004:Q2 | -1.23 | 0.70 |
2004:Q3 | -0.87 | 0.53 |
2004:Q4 | -0.77 | 0.52 |
2005:Q1 | -0.59 | 0.44 |
2005:Q2 | -0.49 | 0.26 |
2005:Q3 | -0.09 | 0.14 |
2005:Q4 | -0.30 | 0.06 |
2006:Q1 | 0.29 | -0.13 |
2006:Q2 | 0.37 | -0.14 |
2006:Q3 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
2006:Q4 | -0.21 | -0.43 |
2007:Q1 | -0.82 | -0.34 |
2007:Q2 | -0.27 | -0.31 |
2007:Q3 | 0.27 | -0.09 |
2007:Q4 | -0.39 | 0.01 |
2008:Q1 | -0.77 | 0.12 |
2008:Q2 | -0.67 | 0.64 |
2008:Q3 | -1.39 | 1.18 |
2008:Q4 | -3.63 | 2.01 |
2009:Q1 | -5.53 | 3.11 |
2009:Q2 | -6.26 | 4.27 |
2009:Q3 | -6.58 | 4.82 |
2009:Q4 | -6.67 | 4.97 |
Top-right panel
Interpreting Recent Output and Unemployment Gaps
- Output and unemployment gaps typically provide similar signals.
- Possible explanations for recent discrepancy:
- GDP data understate contraction.
- Participation boosted by EUC, wealth decline, or other factors.
- Changes in NAIRU or other elements of potential.
Middle-left panel
Initial and Current Staff Estimate of the Output Gap (1987-2008)
Period | Initial | Current |
---|---|---|
1987:Q1 | -2.80 | -1.57 |
1987:Q2 | -2.50 | -1.23 |
1987:Q3 | -1.10 | -1.08 |
1987:Q4 | -0.90 | -0.11 |
1988:Q1 | -0.50 | -0.38 |
1988:Q2 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
1988:Q3 | 0.50 | -0.10 |
1988:Q4 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
1989:Q1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
1989:Q2 | 1.00 | 0.61 |
1989:Q3 | 1.30 | 0.56 |
1989:Q4 | 0.90 | 0.06 |
1990:Q1 | 0.20 | 0.45 |
1990:Q2 | 0.60 | -0.05 |
1990:Q3 | 0.30 | -0.70 |
1990:Q4 | -0.90 | -2.11 |
1991:Q1 | -2.80 | -3.27 |
1991:Q2 | -3.60 | -3.28 |
1991:Q3 | -3.30 | -3.45 |
1991:Q4 | -4.00 | -3.64 |
1992:Q1 | -4.50 | -3.26 |
1992:Q2 | -3.80 | -2.95 |
1992:Q3 | -4.20 | -2.63 |
1992:Q4 | -3.90 | -2.19 |
1993:Q1 | -2.80 | -2.72 |
1993:Q2 | -2.90 | -2.86 |
1993:Q3 | -3.30 | -3.01 |
1993:Q4 | -1.90 | -2.32 |
1994:Q1 | -1.10 | -1.96 |
1994:Q2 | -0.70 | -1.32 |
1994:Q3 | -0.20 | -1.41 |
1994:Q4 | 0.50 | -0.90 |
1995:Q1 | 0.80 | -1.28 |
1995:Q2 | 0.20 | -1.75 |
1995:Q3 | -0.30 | -1.64 |
1995:Q4 | 0.00 | -1.61 |
1996:Q1 | -0.30 | -1.63 |
1996:Q2 | 0.40 | -0.73 |
1996:Q3 | 0.50 | -0.62 |
1996:Q4 | 0.70 | -0.19 |
1997:Q1 | 1.00 | -0.20 |
1997:Q2 | 1.70 | 0.53 |
1997:Q3 | 1.90 | 0.99 |
1997:Q4 | 1.90 | 0.94 |
1998:Q1 | 2.00 | 1.19 |
1998:Q2 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
1998:Q3 | 1.70 | 1.29 |
1998:Q4 | 2.00 | 1.94 |
1999:Q1 | 2.70 | 1.89 |
1999:Q2 | 2.70 | 1.82 |
1999:Q3 | 2.40 | 2.08 |
1999:Q4 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
2000:Q1 | 2.30 | 2.32 |
2000:Q2 | 3.20 | 2.99 |
2000:Q3 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
2000:Q4 | 1.70 | 1.64 |
2001:Q1 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
2001:Q2 | -0.10 | 0.19 |
2001:Q3 | -0.40 | -0.97 |
2001:Q4 | -1.80 | -1.39 |
2002:Q1 | -1.80 | -1.47 |
2002:Q2 | -1.50 | -1.69 |
2002:Q3 | -1.50 | -1.85 |
2002:Q4 | -1.70 | -2.56 |
2003:Q1 | -2.40 | -2.96 |
2003:Q2 | -2.62 | -2.81 |
2003:Q3 | -2.43 | -1.71 |
2003:Q4 | -1.96 | -1.76 |
2004:Q1 | -1.61 | -1.56 |
2004:Q2 | -1.57 | -1.23 |
2004:Q3 | -1.34 | -0.87 |
2004:Q4 | -1.42 | -0.77 |
2005:Q1 | -1.17 | -0.59 |
2005:Q2 | -1.22 | -0.49 |
2005:Q3 | -0.31 | -0.09 |
2005:Q4 | -0.50 | -0.30 |
2006:Q1 | -0.36 | 0.29 |
2006:Q2 | 0.16 | 0.37 |
2006:Q3 | 0.47 | -0.01 |
2006:Q4 | 0.14 | -0.21 |
2007:Q1 | 0.37 | -0.82 |
2007:Q2 | 0.40 | -0.27 |
2007:Q3 | 0.58 | 0.27 |
2007:Q4 | 0.49 | -0.39 |
2008:Q1 | -0.32 | -0.77 |
2008:Q2 | -1.25 | -0.67 |
2008:Q3 | -0.74 | -1.39 |
2008:Q4 | -3.11 | -3.63 |
Middle-right panel
Model Uncertainty and Resource Utilization
- Different methods imply different estimates of potential.
- Consider three methods:
- Staff estimate.
- Trend/cycle Phillips curve model.
- Estimated DSGE (EDO) model.
Bottom panel
Alternative Estimates of the Output Gap with Confidence Intervals
Period | Staff estimate | Lower bound of 90% CI |
Upper bound of 90% CI |
Lower bound of range of estimates |
Upper bound of range of estimates |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1985:Q1 | -2.14 | -2.95 | 1.35 | -2.13 | 0.34 |
1985:Q2 | -2.05 | -2.88 | 1.45 | -2.04 | 0.41 |
1985:Q3 | -1.25 | -2.11 | 1.54 | -1.25 | 0.56 |
1985:Q4 | -1.24 | -2.06 | 1.62 | -1.24 | 0.58 |
1986:Q1 | -1.05 | -1.92 | 1.51 | -1.04 | 0.53 |
1986:Q2 | -1.41 | -2.31 | 1.33 | -1.40 | 0.36 |
1986:Q3 | -1.21 | -2.19 | 1.19 | -1.21 | 0.25 |
1986:Q4 | -1.47 | -2.32 | 1.07 | -1.46 | 0.11 |
1987:Q1 | -1.57 | -2.41 | 1.23 | -1.56 | 0.18 |
1987:Q2 | -1.23 | -2.10 | 1.35 | -1.22 | 0.37 |
1987:Q3 | -1.08 | -1.94 | 1.50 | -1.08 | 0.54 |
1987:Q4 | -0.11 | -1.08 | 1.90 | -0.10 | 1.08 |
1988:Q1 | -0.38 | -1.27 | 1.83 | -0.37 | 0.80 |
1988:Q2 | 0.13 | -0.83 | 2.27 | 0.13 | 1.53 |
1988:Q3 | -0.10 | -0.97 | 2.52 | -0.09 | 1.89 |
1988:Q4 | 0.46 | -0.51 | 2.98 | 0.46 | 2.44 |
1989:Q1 | 0.71 | -0.30 | 3.67 | 0.72 | 3.18 |
1989:Q2 | 0.61 | -0.38 | 3.87 | 0.61 | 3.40 |
1989:Q3 | 0.56 | -0.40 | 3.69 | 0.57 | 3.23 |
1989:Q4 | 0.06 | -0.80 | 3.50 | 0.06 | 3.07 |
1990:Q1 | 0.45 | -0.53 | 3.22 | 0.45 | 2.79 |
1990:Q2 | -0.05 | -0.99 | 2.60 | -0.05 | 2.17 |
1990:Q3 | -0.70 | -1.61 | 1.97 | -0.70 | 1.53 |
1990:Q4 | -2.11 | -2.93 | 1.34 | -2.11 | 0.93 |
1991:Q1 | -3.27 | -4.10 | 0.34 | -3.27 | -0.13 |
1991:Q2 | -3.28 | -4.13 | -0.47 | -3.28 | -1.29 |
1991:Q3 | -3.45 | -4.29 | -0.69 | -3.46 | -1.64 |
1991:Q4 | -3.64 | -4.45 | -0.73 | -3.64 | -1.67 |
1992:Q1 | -3.26 | -4.28 | -0.58 | -3.66 | -1.52 |
1992:Q2 | -2.95 | -4.25 | -0.38 | -3.79 | -1.31 |
1992:Q3 | -2.63 | -4.42 | -0.16 | -4.05 | -1.10 |
1992:Q4 | -2.19 | -4.29 | 0.02 | -3.95 | -0.96 |
1993:Q1 | -2.72 | -3.84 | -0.02 | -3.35 | -0.99 |
1993:Q2 | -2.86 | -3.74 | -0.06 | -2.89 | -1.01 |
1993:Q3 | -3.01 | -3.85 | -0.01 | -3.03 | -0.95 |
1993:Q4 | -2.32 | -3.19 | 0.22 | -2.38 | -0.71 |
1994:Q1 | -1.96 | -2.86 | 0.49 | -2.04 | -0.46 |
1994:Q2 | -1.32 | -2.25 | 0.73 | -1.35 | -0.25 |
1994:Q3 | -1.41 | -2.30 | 0.74 | -1.45 | -0.21 |
1994:Q4 | -0.90 | -1.89 | 0.82 | -0.94 | 0.14 |
1995:Q1 | -1.28 | -2.25 | 1.03 | -1.31 | 0.58 |
1995:Q2 | -1.75 | -2.67 | 0.92 | -1.79 | 0.52 |
1995:Q3 | -1.64 | -2.62 | 1.01 | -1.68 | 0.61 |
1995:Q4 | -1.61 | -2.62 | 0.92 | -1.65 | 0.51 |
1996:Q1 | -1.63 | -2.64 | 0.62 | -1.67 | 0.14 |
1996:Q2 | -0.73 | -2.04 | 0.80 | -0.85 | 0.26 |
1996:Q3 | -0.62 | -1.93 | 1.29 | -0.73 | 0.78 |
1996:Q4 | -0.19 | -1.68 | 1.90 | -0.59 | 1.41 |
1997:Q1 | -0.20 | -1.63 | 2.39 | -0.47 | 1.88 |
1997:Q2 | 0.53 | -1.26 | 2.83 | -0.25 | 2.29 |
1997:Q3 | 0.99 | -1.05 | 3.08 | -0.07 | 2.51 |
1997:Q4 | 0.94 | -0.98 | 3.36 | 0.01 | 2.78 |
1998:Q1 | 1.19 | -0.86 | 3.70 | 0.11 | 3.11 |
1998:Q2 | 1.00 | -0.83 | 3.75 | 0.19 | 3.15 |
1998:Q3 | 1.29 | -0.61 | 3.97 | 0.37 | 3.34 |
1998:Q4 | 1.94 | -0.35 | 4.55 | 0.62 | 3.89 |
1999:Q1 | 1.89 | -0.17 | 4.77 | 0.81 | 4.10 |
1999:Q2 | 1.82 | 0.01 | 5.11 | 1.00 | 4.44 |
1999:Q3 | 2.08 | 0.26 | 5.66 | 1.27 | 4.95 |
1999:Q4 | 2.94 | 0.61 | 6.00 | 1.59 | 5.28 |
2000:Q1 | 2.32 | 0.63 | 5.93 | 1.68 | 5.21 |
2000:Q2 | 2.99 | 0.81 | 6.51 | 1.77 | 5.78 |
2000:Q3 | 2.00 | 0.47 | 6.46 | 1.56 | 5.71 |
2000:Q4 | 1.64 | 0.14 | 6.35 | 1.28 | 5.59 |
2001:Q1 | 0.70 | -0.49 | 5.78 | 0.66 | 5.04 |
2001:Q2 | 0.19 | -0.97 | 4.82 | 0.15 | 4.07 |
2001:Q3 | -0.97 | -1.89 | 3.61 | -1.01 | 2.90 |
2001:Q4 | -1.39 | -2.31 | 2.07 | -1.43 | 1.37 |
2002:Q1 | -1.47 | -2.41 | 1.20 | -1.51 | 0.43 |
2002:Q2 | -1.69 | -2.61 | 0.80 | -1.73 | -0.04 |
2002:Q3 | -1.85 | -2.79 | 0.48 | -1.89 | -0.56 |
2002:Q4 | -2.56 | -3.42 | 0.17 | -2.60 | -0.82 |
2003:Q1 | -2.96 | -3.84 | 0.15 | -3.00 | -0.82 |
2003:Q2 | -2.81 | -3.77 | 0.36 | -2.85 | -0.59 |
2003:Q3 | -1.71 | -3.65 | 0.78 | -3.13 | -0.18 |
2003:Q4 | -1.76 | -3.54 | 1.02 | -3.05 | 0.07 |
2004:Q1 | -1.56 | -3.41 | 1.21 | -2.98 | 0.25 |
2004:Q2 | -1.23 | -3.48 | 1.34 | -3.06 | 0.40 |
2004:Q3 | -0.87 | -3.27 | 1.45 | -2.89 | 0.50 |
2004:Q4 | -0.77 | -2.92 | 1.51 | -2.54 | 0.55 |
2005:Q1 | -0.59 | -2.65 | 1.56 | -2.30 | 0.60 |
2005:Q2 | -0.49 | -2.67 | 1.61 | -2.32 | 0.64 |
2005:Q3 | -0.09 | -2.56 | 1.71 | -2.20 | 0.73 |
2005:Q4 | -0.30 | -1.98 | 1.78 | -1.59 | 0.77 |
2006:Q1 | 0.29 | -1.44 | 1.94 | -1.02 | 0.89 |
2006:Q2 | 0.37 | -1.17 | 1.99 | -0.69 | 0.92 |
2006:Q3 | -0.01 | -1.06 | 1.85 | -0.29 | 0.84 |
2006:Q4 | -0.21 | -1.16 | 1.74 | -0.21 | 0.77 |
2007:Q1 | -0.82 | -1.65 | 1.72 | -0.80 | 0.75 |
2007:Q2 | -0.27 | -1.15 | 1.93 | -0.25 | 0.94 |
2007:Q3 | 0.27 | -0.85 | 2.16 | -0.11 | 1.14 |
2007:Q4 | -0.39 | -1.30 | 2.06 | -0.37 | 1.07 |
2008:Q1 | -0.77 | -1.68 | 1.89 | -0.75 | 0.89 |
2008:Q2 | -0.67 | -2.02 | 1.63 | -1.35 | 0.58 |
2008:Q3 | -1.39 | -2.73 | 1.03 | -2.07 | -0.10 |
2008:Q4 | -3.63 | -4.66 | -0.03 | -3.86 | -1.19 |
2009:Q1 | -5.53 | -6.68 | -1.06 | -5.90 | -2.26 |
2009:Q2 | -6.26 | -7.88 | -1.73 | -7.23 | -2.97 |
CI Confidence interval
Exhibit 5
Risk II: Inflation Dynamics
Top-left panel
Expectations and Inflation
- Long-run inflation expectations have been reasonably well-anchored for some time.
- In our projection, this prevents a sharper deceleration in inflation.
- Un-mooring of expectations is a risk.
Top-right panel
Long-Term Inflation Expectations
Period | Percent |
---|---|
April 1990 | 4.0 |
May 1990 | 4.3 |
June 1990 | 4.6 |
July 1990 | 4.2 |
August 1990 | 4.6 |
September 1990 | 4.7 |
October 1990 | 4.6 |
November 1990 | 4.6 |
December 1990 | 4.5 |
January 1991 | 4.6 |
February 1991 | 4.6 |
March 1991 | 4.6 |
April 1991 | 4.2 |
May 1991 | 4.4 |
June 1991 | 4.5 |
July 1991 | 4.2 |
August 1991 | 4.0 |
September 1991 | 3.9 |
October 1991 | 3.7 |
November 1991 | 3.8 |
December 1991 | 3.8 |
January 1992 | 3.6 |
February 1992 | 3.4 |
March 1992 | 3.6 |
April 1992 | 3.9 |
May 1992 | 4.0 |
June 1992 | 3.4 |
July 1992 | 3.7 |
August 1992 | 4.2 |
September 1992 | 3.5 |
October 1992 | 3.7 |
November 1992 | 3.7 |
December 1992 | 3.4 |
January 1993 | 3.4 |
February 1993 | 4.1 |
March 1993 | 3.6 |
April 1993 | 3.5 |
May 1993 | 3.5 |
June 1993 | 3.8 |
July 1993 | 3.5 |
August 1993 | 3.3 |
September 1993 | 3.3 |
October 1993 | 3.5 |
November 1993 | 3.4 |
December 1993 | 3.6 |
January 1994 | 3.2 |
February 1994 | 3.3 |
March 1994 | 3.4 |
April 1994 | 3.2 |
May 1994 | 3.4 |
June 1994 | 3.4 |
July 1994 | 3.2 |
August 1994 | 3.5 |
September 1994 | 3.2 |
October 1994 | 3.3 |
November 1994 | 3.2 |
December 1994 | 3.2 |
January 1995 | 3.2 |
February 1995 | 3.2 |
March 1995 | 3.3 |
April 1995 | 3.5 |
May 1995 | 3.2 |
June 1995 | 3.1 |
July 1995 | 3.2 |
August 1995 | 3.1 |
September 1995 | 3.1 |
October 1995 | 3.2 |
November 1995 | 3.1 |
December 1995 | 3.1 |
January 1996 | 3.2 |
February 1996 | 3.3 |
March 1996 | 3.2 |
April 1996 | 3.0 |
May 1996 | 3.3 |
June 1996 | 3.1 |
July 1996 | 3.2 |
August 1996 | 3.3 |
September 1996 | 3.2 |
October 1996 | 3.0 |
November 1996 | 3.0 |
December 1996 | 3.0 |
January 1997 | 3.2 |
February 1997 | 3.1 |
March 1997 | 3.0 |
April 1997 | 2.9 |
May 1997 | 3.0 |
June 1997 | 3.1 |
July 1997 | 2.9 |
August 1997 | 3.0 |
September 1997 | 3.1 |
October 1997 | 3.0 |
November 1997 | 3.1 |
December 1997 | 3.1 |
January 1998 | 2.9 |
February 1998 | 2.9 |
March 1998 | 2.8 |
April 1998 | 2.7 |
May 1998 | 2.8 |
June 1998 | 2.9 |
July 1998 | 2.7 |
August 1998 | 2.7 |
September 1998 | 2.9 |
October 1998 | 2.8 |
November 1998 | 2.8 |
December 1998 | 2.9 |
January 1999 | 3.0 |
February 1999 | 2.8 |
March 1999 | 2.7 |
April 1999 | 2.8 |
May 1999 | 2.9 |
June 1999 | 2.8 |
July 1999 | 2.9 |
August 1999 | 2.8 |
September 1999 | 2.9 |
October 1999 | 2.8 |
November 1999 | 2.9 |
December 1999 | 2.9 |
January 2000 | 3.0 |
February 2000 | 2.9 |
March 2000 | 3.1 |
April 2000 | 2.8 |
May 2000 | 2.9 |
June 2000 | 2.8 |
July 2000 | 2.8 |
August 2000 | 2.9 |
September 2000 | 3.0 |
October 2000 | 3.0 |
November 2000 | 2.9 |
December 2000 | 3.0 |
January 2001 | 2.9 |
February 2001 | 3.0 |
March 2001 | 3.0 |
April 2001 | 3.1 |
May 2001 | 3.0 |
June 2001 | 3.0 |
July 2001 | 2.9 |
August 2001 | 3.0 |
September 2001 | 2.9 |
October 2001 | 2.7 |
November 2001 | 2.8 |
December 2001 | 3.0 |
January 2002 | 2.7 |
February 2002 | 2.8 |
March 2002 | 2.8 |
April 2002 | 2.8 |
May 2002 | 3.0 |
June 2002 | 2.8 |
July 2002 | 2.8 |
August 2002 | 2.9 |
September 2002 | 2.5 |
October 2002 | 2.8 |
November 2002 | 2.8 |
December 2002 | 2.8 |
January 2003 | 2.7 |
February 2003 | 2.7 |
March 2003 | 2.8 |
April 2003 | 2.7 |
May 2003 | 2.8 |
June 2003 | 2.7 |
July 2003 | 2.7 |
August 2003 | 2.7 |
September 2003 | 2.7 |
October 2003 | 2.8 |
November 2003 | 2.7 |
December 2003 | 2.8 |
January 2004 | 2.8 |
February 2004 | 2.9 |
March 2004 | 2.9 |
April 2004 | 2.7 |
May 2004 | 2.8 |
June 2004 | 2.9 |
July 2004 | 2.8 |
August 2004 | 2.7 |
September 2004 | 2.8 |
October 2004 | 2.8 |
November 2004 | 2.7 |
December 2004 | 2.8 |
January 2005 | 2.7 |
February 2005 | 2.8 |
March 2005 | 2.9 |
April 2005 | 3.0 |
May 2005 | 2.9 |
June 2005 | 2.8 |
July 2005 | 2.9 |
August 2005 | 2.8 |
September 2005 | 3.1 |
October 2005 | 3.2 |
November 2005 | 3.0 |
December 2005 | 3.1 |
January 2006 | 2.9 |
February 2006 | 2.9 |
March 2006 | 2.9 |
April 2006 | 3.1 |
May 2006 | 3.2 |
June 2006 | 2.9 |
July 2006 | 2.9 |
August 2006 | 3.2 |
September 2006 | 3.0 |
October 2006 | 3.1 |
November 2006 | 3.0 |
December 2006 | 3.0 |
January 2007 | 3.0 |
February 2007 | 2.9 |
March 2007 | 2.9 |
April 2007 | 3.1 |
May 2007 | 3.1 |
June 2007 | 2.9 |
July 2007 | 3.1 |
August 2007 | 2.9 |
September 2007 | 2.9 |
October 2007 | 2.8 |
November 2007 | 2.9 |
December 2007 | 3.1 |
January 2008 | 3.0 |
February 2008 | 3.0 |
March 2008 | 2.9 |
April 2008 | 3.2 |
May 2008 | 3.4 |
June 2008 | 3.4 |
July 2008 | 3.2 |
August 2008 | 3.2 |
September 2008 | 3.0 |
October 2008 | 2.9 |
November 2008 | 2.9 |
December 2008 | 2.6 |
January 2009 | 2.9 |
February 2009 | 3.1 |
March 2009 | 2.6 |
April 2009 | 2.8 |
May 2009 | 2.9 |
June 2009 | 3.0 |
Period | Percent |
---|---|
1990:Q1 | 3.95 |
1990:Q2 | 4.21 |
1990:Q3 | ND |
1990:Q4 | 4.15 |
1991:Q1 | 4.05 |
1991:Q2 | 4.08 |
1991:Q3 | ND |
1991:Q4 | 4.00 |
1992:Q1 | 3.70 |
1992:Q2 | 3.90 |
1992:Q3 | 3.75 |
1992:Q4 | 3.60 |
1993:Q1 | 3.50 |
1993:Q2 | 3.70 |
1993:Q3 | 3.45 |
1993:Q4 | 3.45 |
1994:Q1 | 3.45 |
1994:Q2 | 3.50 |
1994:Q3 | 3.50 |
1994:Q4 | 3.50 |
1995:Q1 | 3.30 |
1995:Q2 | 3.35 |
1995:Q3 | 3.20 |
1995:Q4 | 3.00 |
1996:Q1 | 3.00 |
1996:Q2 | 3.00 |
1996:Q3 | 3.00 |
1996:Q4 | 3.00 |
1997:Q1 | 3.00 |
1997:Q2 | 2.85 |
1997:Q3 | 3.00 |
1997:Q4 | 2.65 |
1998:Q1 | 2.60 |
1998:Q2 | 2.50 |
1998:Q3 | 2.50 |
1998:Q4 | 2.50 |
1999:Q1 | 2.30 |
1999:Q2 | 2.50 |
1999:Q3 | 2.50 |
1999:Q4 | 2.50 |
2000:Q1 | 2.50 |
2000:Q2 | 2.50 |
2000:Q3 | 2.50 |
2000:Q4 | 2.50 |
2001:Q1 | 2.50 |
2001:Q2 | 2.50 |
2001:Q3 | 2.50 |
2001:Q4 | 2.55 |
2002:Q1 | 2.50 |
2002:Q2 | 2.50 |
2002:Q3 | 2.50 |
2002:Q4 | 2.45 |
2003:Q1 | 2.50 |
2003:Q2 | 2.50 |
2003:Q3 | 2.50 |
2003:Q4 | 2.50 |
2004:Q1 | 2.50 |
2004:Q2 | 2.50 |
2004:Q3 | 2.50 |
2004:Q4 | 2.50 |
2005:Q1 | 2.45 |
2005:Q2 | 2.50 |
2005:Q3 | 2.50 |
2005:Q4 | 2.50 |
2006:Q1 | 2.50 |
2006:Q2 | 2.50 |
2006:Q3 | 2.50 |
2006:Q4 | 2.50 |
2007:Q1 | 2.35 |
2007:Q2 | 2.40 |
2007:Q3 | 2.40 |
2007:Q4 | 2.40 |
2008:Q1 | 2.50 |
2008:Q2 | 2.50 |
2008:Q3 | 2.50 |
2008:Q4 | 2.50 |
2009:Q1 | 2.40 |
2009:Q2 | 2.50 |
Middle-left panel
Resource Utilization and Inflation
- Inflation appears to be less sensitive to resource utilization than in the past.
- This reduced sensitivity contributed to our projection that inflation will decelerate by less than during similar earlier periods.
- If the effect of utilization on inflation were similar to that during the early 1980s, we could see deflation.
Middle-right panel
Slope of a Simple Phillips Curve
Period | Estimated slope | Lower bound of 70% CI |
Upper bound of 70% CI |
---|---|---|---|
1985 | -0.38 | -0.55 | -0.22 |
1986 | -0.37 | -0.54 | -0.20 |
1987 | -0.36 | -0.53 | -0.19 |
1988 | -0.34 | -0.52 | -0.16 |
1989 | -0.36 | -0.55 | -0.17 |
1990 | -0.37 | -0.56 | -0.18 |
1991 | -0.36 | -0.54 | -0.18 |
1992 | -0.36 | -0.53 | -0.19 |
1993 | -0.37 | -0.53 | -0.20 |
1994 | -0.33 | -0.45 | -0.22 |
1995 | -0.40 | -0.51 | -0.29 |
1996 | -0.35 | -0.45 | -0.26 |
1997 | -0.36 | -0.46 | -0.26 |
1998 | -0.35 | -0.45 | -0.25 |
1999 | -0.34 | -0.44 | -0.25 |
2000 | -0.38 | -0.44 | -0.33 |
2001 | -0.39 | -0.45 | -0.34 |
2002 | -0.32 | -0.37 | -0.26 |
2003 | -0.29 | -0.36 | -0.23 |
2004 | -0.21 | -0.28 | -0.14 |
2005 | -0.21 | -0.28 | -0.13 |
2006 | -0.22 | -0.30 | -0.14 |
2007 | -0.22 | -0.30 | -0.14 |
2008 | -0.21 | -0.28 | -0.14 |
Note: From a Phillips curve for core PCE inflation using annual data and 20-year rolling estimation samples.
CI Confidence interval
Alternative Simulations
Bottom-left panel
Core PCE Prices
Period | Lower bound of 70% CI |
Upper bound of 70% CI |
Baseline | Higher inflation expectations |
Deflation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009:Q1 | ND | ND | 1.75 | ND | ND |
2009:Q2 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.78 |
2009:Q3 | 1.21 | 1.67 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.31 |
2009:Q4 | 1.05 | 1.75 | 1.41 | 1.50 | 0.92 |
2010:Q1 | 0.78 | 1.70 | 1.23 | 1.44 | 0.55 |
2010:Q2 | 0.32 | 1.43 | 0.86 | 1.25 | 0.05 |
2010:Q3 | 0.19 | 1.45 | 0.79 | 1.35 | 0.01 |
2010:Q4 | 0.15 | 1.50 | 0.77 | 1.49 | 0.15 |
2011:Q1 | 0.09 | 1.52 | 0.75 | 1.60 | 0.10 |
2011:Q2 | 0.02 | 1.51 | 0.72 | 1.67 | -0.02 |
2011:Q3 | 0.01 | 1.53 | 0.71 | 1.75 | -0.16 |
2011:Q4 | -0.03 | 1.56 | 0.72 | 1.82 | -0.18 |
2012:Q1 | -0.01 | 1.57 | 0.74 | 1.87 | -0.15 |
2012:Q2 | 0.02 | 1.59 | 0.78 | 1.92 | -0.08 |
2012:Q3 | 0.05 | 1.63 | 0.83 | 1.98 | 0.01 |
2012:Q4 | 0.12 | 1.72 | 0.89 | 2.06 | 0.13 |
2013:Q1 | 0.19 | 1.79 | 0.95 | 2.17 | 0.24 |
2013:Q2 | 0.27 | 1.86 | 1.01 | 2.28 | 0.34 |
2013:Q3 | 0.34 | 1.94 | 1.08 | 2.39 | 0.42 |
2013:Q4 | 0.40 | 2.01 | 1.13 | 2.49 | 0.50 |
CI Confidence interval
Bottom-right panel
Federal Funds Rate
Period | Lower bound of 70% CI |
Upper bound of 70% CI |
Baseline | Higher inflation expectations |
Deflation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009:Q1 | ND | ND | 0.18 | ND | ND |
2009:Q2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2009:Q3 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2009:Q4 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2010:Q1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2010:Q2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2010:Q3 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2010:Q4 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2011:Q1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2011:Q2 | 0.12 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
2011:Q3 | 0.12 | 1.14 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
2011:Q4 | 0.12 | 1.84 | 0.12 | 1.32 | 0.12 |
2012:Q1 | 0.12 | 2.43 | 0.12 | 2.00 | 0.12 |
2012:Q2 | 0.12 | 3.14 | 0.78 | 2.74 | 0.13 |
2012:Q3 | 0.12 | 3.77 | 1.60 | 3.46 | 0.13 |
2012:Q4 | 0.24 | 4.45 | 2.39 | 4.17 | 1.08 |
2013:Q1 | 1.17 | 5.12 | 3.12 | 4.86 | 1.93 |
2013:Q2 | 1.75 | 5.60 | 3.62 | 5.34 | 2.53 |
2013:Q3 | 2.21 | 5.95 | 3.94 | 5.66 | 2.91 |
2013:Q4 | 2.33 | 6.11 | 4.11 | 5.83 | 3.14 |
CI Confidence interval
Exhibit 6
The Dollar and Financial Markets
Top-left panel
Broad Real Dollar
Period | Index |
---|---|
January 2002 | 100.00 |
February 2002 | 100.53 |
March 2002 | 100.45 |
April 2002 | 100.46 |
May 2002 | 99.20 |
June 2002 | 98.04 |
July 2002 | 96.57 |
August 2002 | 97.83 |
September 2002 | 98.44 |
October 2002 | 98.97 |
November 2002 | 97.58 |
December 2002 | 96.80 |
January 2003 | 95.56 |
February 2003 | 95.67 |
March 2003 | 95.75 |
April 2003 | 94.95 |
May 2003 | 91.92 |
June 2003 | 91.63 |
July 2003 | 92.59 |
August 2003 | 93.78 |
September 2003 | 92.68 |
October 2003 | 90.49 |
November 2003 | 89.73 |
December 2003 | 88.29 |
January 2004 | 86.96 |
February 2004 | 87.57 |
March 2004 | 88.89 |
April 2004 | 89.68 |
May 2004 | 91.54 |
June 2004 | 90.90 |
July 2004 | 89.92 |
August 2004 | 89.94 |
September 2004 | 89.47 |
October 2004 | 88.30 |
November 2004 | 85.83 |
December 2004 | 84.61 |
January 2005 | 85.18 |
February 2005 | 85.25 |
March 2005 | 85.41 |
April 2005 | 86.70 |
May 2005 | 86.99 |
June 2005 | 87.92 |
July 2005 | 88.36 |
August 2005 | 87.50 |
September 2005 | 88.05 |
October 2005 | 88.75 |
November 2005 | 88.51 |
December 2005 | 87.57 |
January 2006 | 86.66 |
February 2006 | 86.67 |
March 2006 | 87.35 |
April 2006 | 87.35 |
May 2006 | 85.92 |
June 2006 | 87.12 |
July 2006 | 87.02 |
August 2006 | 86.44 |
September 2006 | 86.06 |
October 2006 | 85.61 |
November 2006 | 84.44 |
December 2006 | 83.69 |
January 2007 | 84.61 |
February 2007 | 84.23 |
March 2007 | 84.51 |
April 2007 | 84.00 |
May 2007 | 83.69 |
June 2007 | 83.52 |
July 2007 | 82.12 |
August 2007 | 82.15 |
September 2007 | 80.98 |
October 2007 | 79.04 |
November 2007 | 77.84 |
December 2007 | 78.25 |
January 2008 | 77.74 |
February 2008 | 76.55 |
March 2008 | 75.61 |
April 2008 | 75.73 |
May 2008 | 76.37 |
June 2008 | 76.94 |
July 2008 | 76.43 |
August 2008 | 78.12 |
September 2008 | 79.75 |
October 2008 | 84.04 |
November 2008 | 84.51 |
December 2008 | 83.11 |
January 2009 | 83.95 |
February 2009 | 86.07 |
March 2009 | 86.75 |
April 2009 | 85.04 |
May 2009 | 84.85 |
June 2009 | 81.68 |
Forecast | |
July 2009 | 81.43 |
August 2009 | 81.20 |
September 2009 | 81.16 |
October 2009 | 81.14 |
November 2009 | 81.11 |
December 2009 | 81.00 |
January 2010 | 80.87 |
February 2010 | 80.75 |
March 2010 | 80.60 |
April 2010 | 80.44 |
May 2010 | 80.28 |
June 2010 | 80.11 |
July 2010 | 79.93 |
August 2010 | 79.75 |
September 2010 | 79.57 |
October 2010 | 79.39 |
November 2010 | 79.20 |
December 2010 | 79.02 |
Top-center panel
AFE Exchange Rates
Period | United Kingdom | Euro area | Japan | Canada |
---|---|---|---|---|
6 March 2009 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
13 March 2009 | 100.99 | 98.32 | 100.16 | 99.12 |
20 March 2009 | 97.75 | 93.42 | 98.26 | 96.15 |
27 March 2009 | 98.50 | 95.25 | 100.11 | 96.32 |
3 April 2009 | 95.33 | 94.25 | 102.10 | 95.88 |
10 April 2009 | 96.41 | 96.43 | 102.47 | 95.40 |
17 April 2009 | 95.48 | 97.27 | 101.36 | 94.41 |
24 April 2009 | 96.01 | 95.46 | 99.18 | 94.01 |
1 May 2009 | 94.82 | 95.53 | 101.39 | 92.25 |
8 May 2009 | 93.51 | 93.92 | 101.15 | 90.01 |
15 May 2009 | 92.69 | 93.61 | 96.95 | 91.38 |
22 May 2009 | 88.79 | 90.50 | 96.50 | 87.32 |
29 May 2009 | 87.31 | 89.72 | 97.62 | 85.17 |
5 June 2009 | 88.09 | 90.59 | 100.31 | 86.62 |
12 June 2009 | 85.40 | 90.27 | 100.30 | 86.82 |
19 June 2009 | 85.32 | 90.54 | 98.23 | 87.73 |
26 June 2009 | 86.35 | 90.59 | 97.81 | 89.43 |
Note: A vertical line indicates the FOMC meeting on April 28-29, 2009.
Top-right panel
EME Exchange Rates
Period | Korea | Brazil | Mexico | Russia | Thailand |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 March 2009 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
13 March 2009 | 95.59 | 97.43 | 95.61 | 97.17 | 99.61 |
20 March 2009 | 90.12 | 94.80 | 92.70 | 93.77 | 97.84 |
27 March 2009 | 87.18 | 95.90 | 93.84 | 94.44 | 98.09 |
3 April 2009 | 86.18 | 92.79 | 89.36 | 93.30 | 97.75 |
10 April 2009 | 85.70 | 91.43 | 86.06 | 93.89 | 98.20 |
17 April 2009 | 85.64 | 92.08 | 86.11 | 93.68 | 98.36 |
24 April 2009 | 86.36 | 92.52 | 86.83 | 92.73 | 98.06 |
1 May 2009 | 82.41 | 91.55 | 90.62 | 92.53 | 97.81 |
8 May 2009 | 80.17 | 87.39 | 85.92 | 90.73 | 96.67 |
15 May 2009 | 80.80 | 87.70 | 86.58 | 89.91 | 95.81 |
22 May 2009 | 80.15 | 85.42 | 86.32 | 86.94 | 95.23 |
29 May 2009 | 80.60 | 82.91 | 86.42 | 86.25 | 95.20 |
5 June 2009 | 80.50 | 82.60 | 87.16 | 86.53 | 94.95 |
12 June 2009 | 80.41 | 80.95 | 87.85 | 86.51 | 94.53 |
19 June 2009 | 81.58 | 82.33 | 87.44 | 86.87 | 94.59 |
26 June 2009 | 83.01 | 84.79 | 87.18 | 87.64 | 94.70 |
Note: A vertical line indicates the FOMC meeting on April 28-29, 2009.
Middle-left panel
BBB Corporate Spreads
Period | United States | United Kingdom | Euro area | Japan |
---|---|---|---|---|
5 January 2007 | 138.04 | 116.59 | 76.70 | 29.35 |
12 January 2007 | 137.64 | 113.59 | 75.10 | 28.69 |
19 January 2007 | 135.12 | 113.20 | 73.37 | 27.38 |
26 January 2007 | 134.01 | 111.26 | 73.17 | 27.30 |
2 February 2007 | 133.64 | 111.06 | 74.65 | 26.76 |
9 February 2007 | 131.84 | 109.95 | 72.01 | 26.47 |
16 February 2007 | 130.18 | 109.47 | 71.70 | 27.65 |
23 February 2007 | 128.21 | 108.88 | ND | 25.80 |
2 March 2007 | 132.83 | 108.71 | 73.62 | 24.53 |
9 March 2007 | 134.40 | 109.84 | ND | 23.81 |
16 March 2007 | 137.01 | 111.57 | 76.26 | 23.57 |
23 March 2007 | 137.56 | 111.19 | 74.28 | 24.20 |
30 March 2007 | 138.93 | 110.89 | 72.56 | 25.23 |
6 April 2007 | ND | 111.01 | ND | 25.45 |
13 April 2007 | 138.19 | 110.97 | 78.11 | 25.78 |
20 April 2007 | 137.31 | 109.90 | 75.81 | 26.15 |
27 April 2007 | 137.70 | 109.70 | 75.39 | 25.13 |
4 May 2007 | 138.06 | 107.67 | 77.20 | ND |
11 May 2007 | 136.48 | 107.47 | 76.20 | 25.54 |
18 May 2007 | 135.53 | 107.10 | 74.62 | 24.99 |
25 May 2007 | 134.79 | 105.01 | 72.73 | 25.54 |
1 June 2007 | 136.03 | 105.58 | 70.55 | 29.02 |
8 June 2007 | 138.75 | 106.94 | 73.06 | 27.58 |
15 June 2007 | 138.06 | 107.79 | 73.17 | 28.45 |
22 June 2007 | 139.38 | 109.31 | 73.83 | 27.87 |
29 June 2007 | 142.38 | 113.35 | 76.93 | 29.82 |
6 July 2007 | 142.25 | 117.34 | 82.92 | 27.58 |
13 July 2007 | 143.97 | 120.17 | 85.65 | 28.00 |
20 July 2007 | 148.84 | 123.52 | 91.54 | 28.47 |
27 July 2007 | 171.51 | 132.03 | 102.02 | 27.61 |
3 August 2007 | 170.97 | 137.30 | 108.78 | 29.21 |
10 August 2007 | 168.41 | 132.89 | 110.44 | 29.84 |
17 August 2007 | 178.76 | 136.91 | 118.12 | 29.76 |
24 August 2007 | 180.50 | 139.38 | 118.60 | 32.93 |
31 August 2007 | 180.24 | 143.47 | 120.49 | 32.72 |
7 September 2007 | 183.51 | 150.43 | 124.19 | 31.08 |
14 September 2007 | 187.66 | 157.11 | 131.35 | 31.64 |
21 September 2007 | 181.44 | 147.00 | 120.52 | 34.11 |
28 September 2007 | 178.97 | 144.51 | 118.91 | 35.16 |
5 October 2007 | 174.28 | 144.20 | ND | 34.55 |
12 October 2007 | 167.92 | 139.77 | 109.28 | 33.87 |
19 October 2007 | 172.30 | 142.31 | 112.39 | 34.09 |
26 October 2007 | 174.15 | 143.65 | 111.36 | 34.15 |
2 November 2007 | 181.36 | 145.57 | 113.87 | 33.41 |
9 November 2007 | 190.52 | 150.85 | 120.82 | 33.58 |
16 November 2007 | 198.64 | 155.30 | 129.24 | 35.01 |
23 November 2007 | 205.42 | 164.12 | 141.04 | ND |
30 November 2007 | 212.09 | 163.58 | 145.49 | 38.62 |
7 December 2007 | 221.62 | 169.05 | 150.49 | 36.84 |
14 December 2007 | 221.80 | 171.24 | 152.87 | 36.78 |
21 December 2007 | 220.20 | 172.55 | 152.64 | 37.15 |
28 December 2007 | 219.30 | 172.29 | 153.27 | 36.12 |
4 January 2008 | 227.69 | 170.80 | 160.51 | 36.47 |
11 January 2008 | 239.11 | 178.27 | 170.49 | 35.55 |
18 January 2008 | 247.88 | 182.67 | 182.49 | 37.72 |
25 January 2008 | 252.44 | 191.61 | 193.14 | 38.92 |
1 February 2008 | 254.15 | 196.92 | 203.86 | 41.00 |
8 February 2008 | 259.66 | 203.84 | ND | 38.84 |
15 February 2008 | 266.98 | 212.15 | 217.53 | 42.64 |
22 February 2008 | 271.38 | 219.39 | 222.03 | 44.41 |
29 February 2008 | 274.74 | 220.75 | 222.36 | 45.49 |
7 March 2008 | 287.49 | 230.90 | 238.34 | 45.47 |
14 March 2008 | 299.18 | 237.05 | 252.90 | 46.25 |
21 March 2008 | ND | 239.05 | ND | 46.06 |
28 March 2008 | 305.57 | 239.09 | ND | 47.28 |
4 April 2008 | 301.08 | 243.69 | 244.35 | 47.92 |
11 April 2008 | 297.45 | 239.86 | 236.83 | 47.84 |
18 April 2008 | 290.63 | 233.59 | 222.79 | 45.82 |
25 April 2008 | 280.52 | 234.66 | 213.79 | 46.72 |
2 May 2008 | 264.47 | 224.78 | 199.71 | 46.05 |
9 May 2008 | 266.21 | 219.72 | 199.75 | 44.72 |
16 May 2008 | 265.38 | 206.60 | 193.15 | 44.23 |
23 May 2008 | 268.67 | 208.17 | 193.38 | 42.26 |
30 May 2008 | 265.01 | 206.56 | 192.28 | 42.63 |
6 June 2008 | 261.05 | 205.14 | 193.06 | 37.46 |
13 June 2008 | 260.05 | 204.92 | 192.20 | 39.50 |
20 June 2008 | 264.81 | 208.55 | 197.46 | 38.65 |
27 June 2008 | 279.64 | 211.58 | 208.89 | 39.13 |
4 July 2008 | ND | 215.22 | 216.68 | 38.15 |
11 July 2008 | 291.49 | 210.50 | 229.89 | 38.11 |
18 July 2008 | 294.97 | 207.78 | 226.62 | 39.53 |
25 July 2008 | 294.93 | 211.13 | 228.42 | 39.33 |
1 August 2008 | 300.26 | 208.65 | 229.02 | 41.74 |
8 August 2008 | 304.24 | 210.69 | 229.80 | 44.21 |
15 August 2008 | 307.82 | 212.70 | 227.38 | 44.16 |
22 August 2008 | 313.13 | 211.79 | 229.76 | 45.98 |
29 August 2008 | 315.06 | 216.39 | 232.98 | 47.60 |
5 September 2008 | 319.22 | 218.96 | 246.65 | 46.35 |
12 September 2008 | 329.28 | 218.65 | 251.21 | 46.27 |
19 September 2008 | 357.61 | 233.25 | 275.15 | 46.00 |
26 September 2008 | 369.30 | 235.29 | 297.88 | 46.69 |
3 October 2008 | 409.64 | 243.93 | 316.40 | 37.16 |
10 October 2008 | 481.18 | 254.73 | 392.84 | 33.26 |
17 October 2008 | 511.61 | 274.21 | 441.03 | 42.00 |
24 October 2008 | 524.83 | 289.97 | 502.48 | 40.22 |
31 October 2008 | 540.95 | 306.78 | 500.53 | 42.61 |
7 November 2008 | 536.30 | 338.67 | 481.09 | 45.50 |
14 November 2008 | 544.83 | 361.30 | 480.68 | 46.13 |
21 November 2008 | 603.28 | 369.90 | 498.91 | 46.98 |
28 November 2008 | 620.41 | 379.13 | 505.49 | 62.36 |
5 December 2008 | 636.41 | 395.77 | 503.76 | 64.25 |
12 December 2008 | 651.01 | 397.44 | 499.10 | 66.81 |
19 December 2008 | 658.02 | 390.16 | 496.79 | 69.50 |
26 December 2008 | 652.10 | 393.94 | 495.05 | 68.39 |
2 January 2009 | 652.75 | 398.44 | 495.87 | ND |
9 January 2009 | 604.24 | 390.47 | 460.32 | 71.96 |
16 January 2009 | 599.04 | 382.20 | 453.43 | 72.16 |
23 January 2009 | 590.79 | 371.96 | 450.09 | 72.76 |
30 January 2009 | 558.56 | 370.07 | 457.53 | 72.79 |
6 February 2009 | 538.46 | 342.47 | 434.64 | 74.78 |
13 February 2009 | 531.56 | 325.65 | 431.29 | 72.62 |
20 February 2009 | 543.07 | 322.62 | 437.10 | 73.40 |
27 February 2009 | 558.95 | 326.37 | 436.59 | 74.90 |
6 March 2009 | 560.22 | 323.40 | 443.85 | 68.98 |
13 March 2009 | 576.58 | 321.66 | 449.98 | 69.66 |
20 March 2009 | 589.08 | 327.17 | 449.51 | ND |
27 March 2009 | 588.97 | 331.00 | 437.48 | 71.56 |
3 April 2009 | 579.77 | 336.79 | 432.55 | 72.24 |
10 April 2009 | ND | 336.61 | ND | 82.43 |
17 April 2009 | 537.06 | 339.21 | 391.75 | 84.85 |
24 April 2009 | 520.70 | 338.75 | 386.27 | 82.55 |
1 May 2009 | 478.45 | 331.03 | ND | 89.00 |
8 May 2009 | 444.02 | 319.65 | 346.90 | 89.50 |
15 May 2009 | 449.25 | 318.15 | 334.06 | 83.50 |
22 May 2009 | 431.68 | 313.77 | 316.75 | 84.49 |
29 May 2009 | 403.83 | 315.63 | 305.48 | 71.64 |
5 June 2009 | 380.71 | 307.73 | 297.89 | 64.89 |
12 June 2009 | 359.11 | 302.42 | 289.56 | 61.21 |
19 June 2009 | 354.24 | 300.00 | 290.28 | 61.08 |
Middle-right panel
Equity Prices
Period | United Kingdom | Euro area | Japan | Emerging markets |
---|---|---|---|---|
3 June 2008 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
10 June 2008 | 96.22 | 95.51 | 98.68 | 96.67 |
17 June 2008 | 96.84 | 95.07 | 100.98 | 93.81 |
24 June 2008 | 92.89 | 90.30 | 97.47 | 91.05 |
1 July 2008 | 90.32 | 87.11 | 94.75 | 90.01 |
8 July 2008 | 89.19 | 86.05 | 91.72 | ND |
15 July 2008 | 85.07 | 82.08 | 89.76 | 86.36 |
22 July 2008 | 88.72 | 87.05 | 92.79 | 86.23 |
29 July 2008 | 87.76 | 86.41 | 92.61 | 84.82 |
5 August 2008 | 90.14 | 87.77 | 90.89 | 83.49 |
12 August 2008 | 91.57 | 89.76 | 93.63 | 82.02 |
19 August 2008 | 87.95 | 85.89 | 90.54 | 79.49 |
26 August 2008 | 90.45 | 86.52 | 89.93 | 78.68 |
2 September 2008 | 93.13 | 89.62 | 88.74 | 77.39 |
9 September 2008 | 89.66 | 85.45 | 87.27 | 74.73 |
16 September 2008 | 83.12 | 81.03 | 81.71 | 68.34 |
23 September 2008 | 84.77 | 81.75 | 85.09 | 70.75 |
30 September 2008 | 80.69 | 78.21 | 79.24 | 64.17 |
7 October 2008 | 75.82 | 72.64 | 71.47 | 55.57 |
14 October 2008 | 72.36 | 70.40 | 66.49 | 52.63 |
21 October 2008 | 69.17 | 66.07 | 65.49 | 48.90 |
28 October 2008 | 63.87 | 59.56 | 53.64 | 37.62 |
4 November 2008 | 75.52 | 70.03 | 64.15 | 48.38 |
11 November 2008 | 69.37 | 63.41 | 62.00 | 48.27 |
18 November 2008 | 68.23 | 60.66 | 58.61 | 43.06 |
25 November 2008 | 67.58 | 60.27 | 58.58 | 40.20 |
2 December 2008 | 66.91 | 59.59 | 55.34 | 42.51 |
9 December 2008 | 71.01 | 62.16 | 59.09 | 44.47 |
16 December 2008 | 70.08 | 61.46 | 60.30 | 46.59 |
23 December 2008 | 69.36 | 60.10 | 61.40 | 46.97 |
30 December 2008 | 71.54 | 61.66 | 62.35 | 46.16 |
6 January 2009 | 75.62 | 65.16 | 63.91 | 49.59 |
13 January 2009 | 71.74 | 61.26 | 59.21 | 45.81 |
20 January 2009 | 66.78 | 56.15 | 56.76 | 44.20 |
27 January 2009 | 68.42 | 56.82 | 56.73 | 42.71 |
3 February 2009 | 67.84 | 57.19 | 55.07 | 42.82 |
10 February 2009 | 68.96 | 58.22 | 55.92 | 46.77 |
17 February 2009 | 66.09 | 54.56 | 53.81 | 45.34 |
24 February 2009 | 62.49 | 51.01 | 51.15 | 42.24 |
3 March 2009 | 57.98 | 48.19 | 50.88 | 39.34 |
10 March 2009 | 61.07 | 49.45 | 49.65 | 40.18 |
17 March 2009 | 63.43 | 51.48 | 55.94 | 44.68 |
24 March 2009 | 64.45 | 53.97 | 59.74 | 47.97 |
31 March 2009 | 64.63 | 53.03 | 57.07 | 46.49 |
7 April 2009 | 65.08 | 55.55 | 62.16 | 51.59 |
14 April 2009 | 66.43 | 58.33 | 62.23 | 53.04 |
21 April 2009 | 66.22 | 57.80 | 61.31 | 52.45 |
28 April 2009 | 68.00 | 58.69 | 59.78 | 52.45 |
5 May 2009 | 72.29 | 62.17 | 63.18 | 58.04 |
12 May 2009 | 73.34 | 62.35 | 65.44 | 59.91 |
19 May 2009 | 74.26 | 63.26 | 65.38 | 60.32 |
26 May 2009 | 73.03 | 63.25 | 65.53 | 61.86 |
2 June 2009 | 74.27 | 65.00 | 68.30 | 66.42 |
9 June 2009 | 73.12 | 63.51 | 68.88 | 63.94 |
16 June 2009 | 71.77 | 62.32 | 68.64 | 63.75 |
23 June 2009 | 70.30 | 60.44 | 67.21 | 60.98 |
Bottom-left panel
Commodity Prices
Period | WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) |
Nonfuel commodities (Index, Jan. 2007 = 100) |
---|---|---|
January 2007 | 54.16 | 100.00 |
February 2007 | 59.26 | 102.22 |
March 2007 | 60.56 | 104.38 |
April 2007 | 63.96 | 109.60 |
May 2007 | 63.46 | 110.86 |
June 2007 | 67.48 | 109.33 |
July 2007 | 74.12 | 108.66 |
August 2007 | 72.39 | 103.49 |
September 2007 | 79.93 | 105.13 |
October 2007 | 85.93 | 106.45 |
November 2007 | 94.62 | 105.75 |
December 2007 | 91.70 | 104.60 |
January 2008 | 92.95 | 111.12 |
February 2008 | 95.35 | 118.32 |
March 2008 | 105.56 | 122.57 |
April 2008 | 112.57 | 121.87 |
May 2008 | 125.39 | 120.23 |
June 2008 | 133.93 | 121.21 |
July 2008 | 133.44 | 121.87 |
August 2008 | 116.70 | 114.62 |
September 2008 | 103.90 | 108.65 |
October 2008 | 76.66 | 92.22 |
November 2008 | 57.28 | 84.74 |
December 2008 | 41.02 | 77.79 |
January 2009 | 41.74 | 80.82 |
February 2009 | 39.16 | 78.82 |
March 2009 | 47.98 | 78.36 |
April 2009 | 49.79 | 83.01 |
May 2009 | 59.16 | 86.90 |
June 2009 | 69.67 | 89.87 |
Forecast | ||
July 2009 | 66.93 | 89.40 |
August 2009 | 67.50 | 89.41 |
September 2009 | 68.32 | 89.40 |
October 2009 | 69.07 | 89.60 |
November 2009 | 69.77 | 89.74 |
December 2009 | 70.37 | 90.01 |
January 2010 | 70.83 | 90.27 |
February 2010 | 71.24 | 90.46 |
March 2010 | 71.64 | 90.65 |
April 2010 | 72.06 | 90.81 |
May 2010 | 72.48 | 90.93 |
June 2010 | 72.90 | 91.06 |
July 2010 | 73.27 | 91.22 |
August 2010 | 73.60 | 91.25 |
September 2010 | 73.93 | 91.23 |
October 2010 | 74.27 | 91.30 |
November 2010 | 74.61 | 91.34 |
December 2010 | 74.96 | 91.45 |
Bottom-right panel
Baltic Dry Index
Period | Index |
---|---|
2 January 2007 | 100.00 |
3 January 2007 | 100.70 |
4 January 2007 | 101.65 |
5 January 2007 | 102.67 |
8 January 2007 | 103.57 |
9 January 2007 | 104.43 |
10 January 2007 | 104.95 |
11 January 2007 | 105.11 |
12 January 2007 | 105.00 |
15 January 2007 | 104.70 |
16 January 2007 | 103.03 |
17 January 2007 | 101.36 |
18 January 2007 | 99.77 |
19 January 2007 | 98.67 |
22 January 2007 | 98.17 |
23 January 2007 | 98.62 |
24 January 2007 | 99.10 |
25 January 2007 | 99.19 |
26 January 2007 | 98.78 |
29 January 2007 | 98.24 |
30 January 2007 | 96.97 |
31 January 2007 | 95.57 |
1 February 2007 | 95.43 |
2 February 2007 | 95.97 |
5 February 2007 | 96.47 |
6 February 2007 | 97.06 |
7 February 2007 | 97.56 |
8 February 2007 | 97.78 |
9 February 2007 | 97.90 |
12 February 2007 | 98.35 |
13 February 2007 | 98.62 |
14 February 2007 | 98.76 |
15 February 2007 | 98.44 |
16 February 2007 | 98.51 |
19 February 2007 | 98.51 |
20 February 2007 | 98.60 |
21 February 2007 | 99.50 |
22 February 2007 | 100.79 |
23 February 2007 | 102.80 |
26 February 2007 | 104.25 |
27 February 2007 | 106.40 |
28 February 2007 | 107.78 |
1 March 2007 | 108.98 |
2 March 2007 | 110.20 |
5 March 2007 | 111.02 |
6 March 2007 | 111.31 |
7 March 2007 | 111.67 |
8 March 2007 | 112.26 |
9 March 2007 | 113.10 |
12 March 2007 | 114.02 |
13 March 2007 | 114.66 |
14 March 2007 | 114.84 |
15 March 2007 | 114.70 |
16 March 2007 | 115.04 |
19 March 2007 | 115.88 |
20 March 2007 | 116.99 |
21 March 2007 | 118.21 |
22 March 2007 | 119.32 |
23 March 2007 | 120.56 |
26 March 2007 | 121.17 |
27 March 2007 | 121.33 |
28 March 2007 | 121.15 |
29 March 2007 | 121.13 |
30 March 2007 | 121.87 |
2 April 2007 | 122.53 |
3 April 2007 | 123.03 |
4 April 2007 | 124.11 |
5 April 2007 | 125.13 |
6 April 2007 | ND |
9 April 2007 | ND |
10 April 2007 | 125.58 |
11 April 2007 | 125.67 |
12 April 2007 | 125.45 |
13 April 2007 | 125.61 |
16 April 2007 | 125.81 |
17 April 2007 | 126.69 |
18 April 2007 | 128.93 |
19 April 2007 | 130.78 |
20 April 2007 | 132.32 |
23 April 2007 | 133.95 |
24 April 2007 | 136.37 |
25 April 2007 | 138.48 |
26 April 2007 | 140.06 |
27 April 2007 | 140.92 |
30 April 2007 | 141.33 |
1 May 2007 | 141.48 |
2 May 2007 | 141.64 |
3 May 2007 | 141.96 |
4 May 2007 | 142.98 |
7 May 2007 | ND |
8 May 2007 | 144.65 |
9 May 2007 | 146.53 |
10 May 2007 | 148.95 |
11 May 2007 | 150.37 |
14 May 2007 | 151.21 |
15 May 2007 | 151.28 |
16 May 2007 | 150.42 |
17 May 2007 | 149.36 |
18 May 2007 | 148.25 |
21 May 2007 | 147.50 |
22 May 2007 | 146.37 |
23 May 2007 | 145.26 |
24 May 2007 | 142.59 |
25 May 2007 | 140.51 |
28 May 2007 | ND |
29 May 2007 | 138.50 |
30 May 2007 | 136.24 |
31 May 2007 | 135.06 |
1 June 2007 | 135.33 |
4 June 2007 | 135.96 |
5 June 2007 | 136.24 |
6 June 2007 | 135.44 |
7 June 2007 | 132.93 |
8 June 2007 | 129.74 |
11 June 2007 | 128.05 |
12 June 2007 | 125.27 |
13 June 2007 | 122.30 |
14 June 2007 | 119.93 |
15 June 2007 | 118.93 |
18 June 2007 | 118.84 |
19 June 2007 | 120.11 |
20 June 2007 | 123.00 |
21 June 2007 | 128.30 |
22 June 2007 | 133.95 |
25 June 2007 | 136.58 |
26 June 2007 | 138.09 |
27 June 2007 | 139.79 |
28 June 2007 | 141.01 |
29 June 2007 | 142.00 |
2 July 2007 | 142.59 |
3 July 2007 | 142.55 |
4 July 2007 | 142.34 |
5 July 2007 | 141.39 |
6 July 2007 | 140.26 |
9 July 2007 | 140.69 |
10 July 2007 | 142.52 |
11 July 2007 | 146.66 |
12 July 2007 | 150.55 |
13 July 2007 | 151.69 |
16 July 2007 | 151.37 |
17 July 2007 | 150.12 |
18 July 2007 | 148.88 |
19 July 2007 | 148.54 |
20 July 2007 | 149.31 |
23 July 2007 | 150.62 |
24 July 2007 | 152.00 |
25 July 2007 | 153.36 |
26 July 2007 | 154.67 |
27 July 2007 | 155.85 |
30 July 2007 | 156.89 |
31 July 2007 | 157.59 |
1 August 2007 | 158.18 |
2 August 2007 | 158.34 |
3 August 2007 | 158.49 |
6 August 2007 | 158.11 |
7 August 2007 | 157.57 |
8 August 2007 | 156.46 |
9 August 2007 | 156.89 |
10 August 2007 | 158.58 |
13 August 2007 | 159.83 |
14 August 2007 | 161.57 |
15 August 2007 | 163.56 |
16 August 2007 | 165.55 |
17 August 2007 | 165.42 |
20 August 2007 | 164.87 |
21 August 2007 | 163.83 |
22 August 2007 | 163.11 |
23 August 2007 | 163.70 |
24 August 2007 | 164.60 |
27 August 2007 | ND |
28 August 2007 | 166.95 |
29 August 2007 | 169.06 |
30 August 2007 | 171.59 |
31 August 2007 | 174.21 |
3 September 2007 | 176.05 |
4 September 2007 | 178.85 |
5 September 2007 | 182.99 |
6 September 2007 | 187.06 |
7 September 2007 | 190.23 |
10 September 2007 | 191.74 |
11 September 2007 | 191.54 |
12 September 2007 | 190.48 |
13 September 2007 | 188.65 |
14 September 2007 | 187.79 |
17 September 2007 | 187.65 |
18 September 2007 | 188.03 |
19 September 2007 | 190.66 |
20 September 2007 | 194.96 |
21 September 2007 | 202.58 |
24 September 2007 | 205.43 |
25 September 2007 | 208.44 |
26 September 2007 | 209.43 |
27 September 2007 | 211.94 |
28 September 2007 | 214.30 |
1 October 2007 | 215.72 |
2 October 2007 | 216.38 |
3 October 2007 | 216.26 |
4 October 2007 | 215.18 |
5 October 2007 | 215.68 |
8 October 2007 | 218.62 |
9 October 2007 | 223.03 |
10 October 2007 | 231.12 |
11 October 2007 | 237.80 |
12 October 2007 | 241.91 |
15 October 2007 | 243.29 |
16 October 2007 | 243.11 |
17 October 2007 | 242.57 |
18 October 2007 | 242.75 |
19 October 2007 | 244.24 |
22 October 2007 | 245.49 |
23 October 2007 | 247.55 |
24 October 2007 | 248.45 |
25 October 2007 | 248.68 |
26 October 2007 | 249.38 |
29 October 2007 | 249.56 |
30 October 2007 | 246.23 |
31 October 2007 | 241.03 |
1 November 2007 | 239.34 |
2 November 2007 | 238.59 |
5 November 2007 | 238.39 |
6 November 2007 | 239.88 |
7 November 2007 | 241.44 |
8 November 2007 | 243.02 |
9 November 2007 | 245.80 |
12 November 2007 | 248.70 |
13 November 2007 | 249.69 |
14 November 2007 | 248.70 |
15 November 2007 | 247.41 |
16 November 2007 | 245.87 |
19 November 2007 | 243.84 |
20 November 2007 | 240.83 |
21 November 2007 | 237.89 |
22 November 2007 | 233.61 |
23 November 2007 | 229.54 |
26 November 2007 | 226.26 |
27 November 2007 | 223.86 |
28 November 2007 | 224.43 |
29 November 2007 | 228.27 |
30 November 2007 | 230.94 |
3 December 2007 | 232.30 |
4 December 2007 | 232.64 |
5 December 2007 | 231.08 |
6 December 2007 | 229.41 |
7 December 2007 | 227.73 |
10 December 2007 | 226.01 |
11 December 2007 | 224.59 |
12 December 2007 | 224.75 |
13 December 2007 | 225.04 |
14 December 2007 | 224.34 |
17 December 2007 | 222.76 |
18 December 2007 | 220.56 |
19 December 2007 | 216.94 |
20 December 2007 | 212.44 |
21 December 2007 | 208.91 |
24 December 2007 | 206.81 |
25 December 2007 | ND |
26 December 2007 | ND |
27 December 2007 | ND |
28 December 2007 | ND |
31 December 2007 | ND |
1 January 2008 | ND |
2 January 2008 | 201.11 |
3 January 2008 | 198.05 |
4 January 2008 | 196.83 |
7 January 2008 | 197.51 |
8 January 2008 | 197.47 |
9 January 2008 | 195.00 |
10 January 2008 | 188.49 |
11 January 2008 | 179.80 |
14 January 2008 | 173.13 |
15 January 2008 | 165.94 |
16 January 2008 | 156.41 |
17 January 2008 | 146.39 |
18 January 2008 | 146.17 |
21 January 2008 | 147.32 |
22 January 2008 | 145.60 |
23 January 2008 | 141.28 |
24 January 2008 | 134.54 |
25 January 2008 | 130.74 |
28 January 2008 | 128.75 |
29 January 2008 | 127.01 |
30 January 2008 | 133.45 |
31 January 2008 | 136.89 |
1 February 2008 | 138.75 |
4 February 2008 | 138.45 |
5 February 2008 | 136.44 |
6 February 2008 | 135.76 |
7 February 2008 | 138.77 |
8 February 2008 | 143.70 |
11 February 2008 | 147.48 |
12 February 2008 | 151.82 |
13 February 2008 | 157.54 |
14 February 2008 | 163.13 |
15 February 2008 | 166.37 |
18 February 2008 | 166.95 |
19 February 2008 | 165.55 |
20 February 2008 | 160.17 |
21 February 2008 | 158.29 |
22 February 2008 | 162.57 |
25 February 2008 | 165.03 |
26 February 2008 | 165.39 |
27 February 2008 | 165.10 |
28 February 2008 | 165.84 |
29 February 2008 | 172.20 |
3 March 2008 | 178.20 |
4 March 2008 | 180.80 |
5 March 2008 | 184.62 |
6 March 2008 | 190.07 |
7 March 2008 | 193.08 |
10 March 2008 | 195.07 |
11 March 2008 | 193.62 |
12 March 2008 | 188.78 |
13 March 2008 | 183.04 |
14 March 2008 | 180.32 |
17 March 2008 | 178.99 |
18 March 2008 | 178.53 |
19 March 2008 | 176.45 |
20 March 2008 | 173.81 |
21 March 2008 | ND |
24 March 2008 | ND |
25 March 2008 | 172.34 |
26 March 2008 | 173.69 |
27 March 2008 | 178.33 |
28 March 2008 | 182.52 |
31 March 2008 | 182.79 |
1 April 2008 | 178.47 |
2 April 2008 | 173.15 |
3 April 2008 | 173.94 |
4 April 2008 | 175.01 |
7 April 2008 | 175.10 |
8 April 2008 | 175.39 |
9 April 2008 | 175.53 |
10 April 2008 | 176.95 |
11 April 2008 | 178.44 |
14 April 2008 | 180.07 |
15 April 2008 | 179.98 |
16 April 2008 | 180.21 |
17 April 2008 | 181.81 |
18 April 2008 | 185.55 |
21 April 2008 | 188.87 |
22 April 2008 | 193.40 |
23 April 2008 | 200.45 |
24 April 2008 | 207.69 |
25 April 2008 | 211.02 |
28 April 2008 | 211.35 |
29 April 2008 | 209.75 |
30 April 2008 | 211.63 |
1 May 2008 | 213.50 |
2 May 2008 | 216.72 |
5 May 2008 | ND |
6 May 2008 | 222.91 |
7 May 2008 | 228.55 |
8 May 2008 | 231.19 |
9 May 2008 | 231.55 |
12 May 2008 | 231.17 |
13 May 2008 | 234.20 |
14 May 2008 | 240.87 |
15 May 2008 | 250.33 |
16 May 2008 | 259.19 |
19 May 2008 | 264.85 |
20 May 2008 | 266.75 |
21 May 2008 | 266.25 |
22 May 2008 | 263.47 |
23 May 2008 | 259.33 |
26 May 2008 | ND |
27 May 2008 | 254.90 |
28 May 2008 | 254.35 |
29 May 2008 | 256.66 |
30 May 2008 | 258.77 |
2 June 2008 | 259.17 |
3 June 2008 | 260.19 |
4 June 2008 | 262.90 |
5 June 2008 | 264.40 |
6 June 2008 | 262.66 |
9 June 2008 | 260.89 |
10 June 2008 | 258.06 |
11 June 2008 | 251.19 |
12 June 2008 | 229.41 |
13 June 2008 | 218.19 |
16 June 2008 | 213.05 |
17 June 2008 | 212.92 |
18 June 2008 | 213.46 |
19 June 2008 | 214.30 |
20 June 2008 | 213.25 |
23 June 2008 | 208.35 |
24 June 2008 | 206.72 |
25 June 2008 | 209.09 |
26 June 2008 | 214.27 |
27 June 2008 | 217.12 |
30 June 2008 | 216.90 |
1 July 2008 | 212.15 |
2 July 2008 | 206.72 |
3 July 2008 | 201.88 |
4 July 2008 | 200.27 |
7 July 2008 | 202.76 |
8 July 2008 | 206.90 |
9 July 2008 | 209.73 |
10 July 2008 | 210.65 |
11 July 2008 | 208.78 |
14 July 2008 | 207.67 |
15 July 2008 | 206.97 |
16 July 2008 | 205.65 |
17 July 2008 | 204.91 |
18 July 2008 | 203.85 |
21 July 2008 | 202.69 |
22 July 2008 | 201.40 |
23 July 2008 | 200.32 |
24 July 2008 | 198.39 |
25 July 2008 | 195.36 |
28 July 2008 | 192.56 |
29 July 2008 | 190.77 |
30 July 2008 | 189.73 |
31 July 2008 | 188.67 |
1 August 2008 | 187.29 |
4 August 2008 | 185.68 |
5 August 2008 | 183.22 |
6 August 2008 | 177.99 |
7 August 2008 | 170.12 |
8 August 2008 | 162.88 |
11 August 2008 | 159.58 |
12 August 2008 | 158.15 |
13 August 2008 | 160.53 |
14 August 2008 | 167.84 |
15 August 2008 | 170.93 |
18 August 2008 | 172.40 |
19 August 2008 | 170.62 |
20 August 2008 | 166.12 |
21 August 2008 | 162.63 |
22 August 2008 | 161.66 |
25 August 2008 | ND |
26 August 2008 | 160.94 |
27 August 2008 | 159.47 |
28 August 2008 | 156.73 |
29 August 2008 | 154.01 |
1 September 2008 | 151.35 |
2 September 2008 | 146.26 |
3 September 2008 | 139.02 |
4 September 2008 | 132.87 |
5 September 2008 | 128.09 |
8 September 2008 | 124.23 |
9 September 2008 | 118.86 |
10 September 2008 | 113.68 |
11 September 2008 | 110.68 |
12 September 2008 | 108.57 |
15 September 2008 | 107.37 |
16 September 2008 | 107.67 |
17 September 2008 | 109.84 |
18 September 2008 | 112.15 |
19 September 2008 | 112.53 |
22 September 2008 | 111.94 |
23 September 2008 | 108.17 |
24 September 2008 | 101.54 |
25 September 2008 | 94.16 |
26 September 2008 | 84.73 |
29 September 2008 | 79.26 |
30 September 2008 | 72.77 |
1 October 2008 | 68.42 |
2 October 2008 | 67.63 |
3 October 2008 | 67.90 |
6 October 2008 | 67.68 |
7 October 2008 | 66.09 |
8 October 2008 | 62.52 |
9 October 2008 | 56.62 |
10 October 2008 | 50.24 |
13 October 2008 | 44.70 |
14 October 2008 | 40.92 |
15 October 2008 | 36.53 |
16 October 2008 | 34.06 |
17 October 2008 | 32.53 |
20 October 2008 | 30.65 |
21 October 2008 | 29.22 |
22 October 2008 | 27.62 |
23 October 2008 | 25.99 |
24 October 2008 | 24.93 |
27 October 2008 | 23.71 |
28 October 2008 | 22.21 |
29 October 2008 | 20.92 |
30 October 2008 | 20.02 |
31 October 2008 | 19.25 |
3 November 2008 | 18.71 |
4 November 2008 | 18.43 |
5 November 2008 | 18.68 |
6 November 2008 | 18.98 |
7 November 2008 | 18.75 |
10 November 2008 | 18.55 |
11 November 2008 | 18.50 |
12 November 2008 | 18.64 |
13 November 2008 | 18.95 |
14 November 2008 | 19.02 |
17 November 2008 | 19.36 |
18 November 2008 | 19.57 |
19 November 2008 | 19.43 |
20 November 2008 | 19.16 |
21 November 2008 | 18.91 |
24 November 2008 | 18.64 |
25 November 2008 | 18.19 |
26 November 2008 | 17.26 |
27 November 2008 | 16.58 |
28 November 2008 | 16.17 |
1 December 2008 | 15.83 |
2 December 2008 | 15.47 |
3 December 2008 | 15.20 |
4 December 2008 | 15.06 |
5 December 2008 | 15.00 |
8 December 2008 | 15.18 |
9 December 2008 | 15.36 |
10 December 2008 | 15.63 |
11 December 2008 | 16.08 |
12 December 2008 | 17.28 |
15 December 2008 | 18.16 |
16 December 2008 | 18.73 |
17 December 2008 | 18.91 |
18 December 2008 | 18.75 |
19 December 2008 | 18.50 |
22 December 2008 | 18.12 |
23 December 2008 | 17.73 |
24 December 2008 | 17.51 |
25 December 2008 | ND |
26 December 2008 | ND |
29 December 2008 | ND |
30 December 2008 | ND |
31 December 2008 | ND |
1 January 2009 | ND |
2 January 2009 | 17.48 |
5 January 2009 | 17.46 |
6 January 2009 | 17.53 |
7 January 2009 | 17.85 |
8 January 2009 | 18.57 |
9 January 2009 | 19.72 |
12 January 2009 | 20.11 |
13 January 2009 | 20.61 |
14 January 2009 | 20.81 |
15 January 2009 | 20.54 |
16 January 2009 | 19.93 |
19 January 2009 | 19.63 |
20 January 2009 | 19.72 |
21 January 2009 | 20.36 |
22 January 2009 | 21.38 |
23 January 2009 | 22.17 |
26 January 2009 | 22.51 |
27 January 2009 | 22.71 |
28 January 2009 | 22.94 |
29 January 2009 | 23.43 |
30 January 2009 | 24.20 |
2 February 2009 | 24.86 |
3 February 2009 | 25.97 |
4 February 2009 | 29.77 |
5 February 2009 | 33.88 |
6 February 2009 | 37.14 |
9 February 2009 | 41.05 |
10 February 2009 | 44.65 |
11 February 2009 | 46.48 |
12 February 2009 | 44.99 |
13 February 2009 | 43.16 |
16 February 2009 | 41.76 |
17 February 2009 | 42.86 |
18 February 2009 | 44.92 |
19 February 2009 | 46.53 |
20 February 2009 | 47.48 |
23 February 2009 | 47.14 |
24 February 2009 | 45.46 |
25 February 2009 | 44.33 |
26 February 2009 | 44.11 |
27 February 2009 | 44.92 |
2 March 2009 | 45.56 |
3 March 2009 | 46.01 |
4 March 2009 | 47.14 |
5 March 2009 | 49.02 |
6 March 2009 | 50.33 |
9 March 2009 | 51.16 |
10 March 2009 | 51.98 |
11 March 2009 | 51.37 |
12 March 2009 | 49.79 |
13 March 2009 | 48.00 |
16 March 2009 | 46.55 |
17 March 2009 | 44.65 |
18 March 2009 | 42.09 |
19 March 2009 | 40.60 |
20 March 2009 | 40.31 |
23 March 2009 | 40.10 |
24 March 2009 | 39.76 |
25 March 2009 | 39.36 |
26 March 2009 | 38.77 |
27 March 2009 | 37.96 |
30 March 2009 | 37.23 |
31 March 2009 | 36.53 |
1 April 2009 | 35.60 |
2 April 2009 | 34.79 |
3 April 2009 | 34.06 |
6 April 2009 | 33.61 |
7 April 2009 | 33.16 |
8 April 2009 | 33.09 |
9 April 2009 | 33.43 |
10 April 2009 | ND |
13 April 2009 | ND |
14 April 2009 | 33.75 |
15 April 2009 | 34.70 |
16 April 2009 | 36.28 |
17 April 2009 | 38.05 |
20 April 2009 | 39.29 |
21 April 2009 | 40.65 |
22 April 2009 | 42.28 |
23 April 2009 | 42.91 |
24 April 2009 | 42.37 |
27 April 2009 | 41.60 |
28 April 2009 | 40.49 |
29 April 2009 | 40.08 |
30 April 2009 | 40.40 |
1 May 2009 | 40.85 |
4 May 2009 | ND |
5 May 2009 | 42.91 |
6 May 2009 | 46.71 |
7 May 2009 | 49.63 |
8 May 2009 | 50.08 |
11 May 2009 | 50.10 |
12 May 2009 | 50.96 |
13 May 2009 | 52.75 |
14 May 2009 | 55.01 |
15 May 2009 | 57.54 |
18 May 2009 | 58.92 |
19 May 2009 | 59.81 |
20 May 2009 | 60.28 |
21 May 2009 | 61.23 |
22 May 2009 | 63.02 |
25 May 2009 | ND |
26 May 2009 | 66.55 |
27 May 2009 | 71.57 |
28 May 2009 | 74.60 |
29 May 2009 | 79.03 |
1 June 2009 | 83.26 |
2 June 2009 | 92.87 |
3 June 2009 | 97.06 |
4 June 2009 | 92.58 |
5 June 2009 | 86.16 |
8 June 2009 | 82.47 |
9 June 2009 | 79.57 |
10 June 2009 | 78.08 |
11 June 2009 | 78.78 |
12 June 2009 | 81.05 |
15 June 2009 | 85.12 |
16 June 2009 | 89.37 |
17 June 2009 | 91.07 |
18 June 2009 | 92.13 |
19 June 2009 | 92.06 |
22 June 2009 | 91.13 |
Average 2003-2008: 102.29
Exhibit 7
Other Explanations for Recent Dollar Movements
Top-left panel
10-Year Government Bonds
Period | United States | United Kingdom | Germany | Japan |
---|---|---|---|---|
11 January 2008 | 3.85 | 4.42 | 4.11 | 1.45 |
18 January 2008 | 3.72 | 4.41 | 4.00 | ND |
25 January 2008 | 3.58 | 4.47 | 3.95 | 1.38 |
1 February 2008 | 3.67 | 4.52 | 3.96 | 1.44 |
8 February 2008 | 3.66 | 4.45 | 3.88 | 1.44 |
15 February 2008 | 3.72 | 4.59 | 3.94 | ND |
22 February 2008 | 3.85 | 4.67 | 4.01 | 1.46 |
29 February 2008 | 3.78 | 4.64 | 4.02 | 1.44 |
7 March 2008 | 3.61 | 4.41 | 3.82 | 1.36 |
14 March 2008 | 3.51 | 4.35 | 3.76 | 1.31 |
21 March 2008 | 3.39 | 4.31 | 3.74 | ND |
28 March 2008 | 3.52 | 4.41 | 3.88 | 1.27 |
4 April 2008 | 3.55 | 4.43 | 3.96 | 1.34 |
11 April 2008 | 3.54 | 4.48 | 3.99 | 1.34 |
18 April 2008 | 3.67 | 4.55 | 4.02 | 1.35 |
25 April 2008 | 3.81 | 4.72 | 4.15 | 1.49 |
2 May 2008 | 3.83 | 4.69 | 4.16 | ND |
9 May 2008 | 3.85 | 4.66 | 4.11 | ND |
16 May 2008 | 3.86 | 4.75 | 4.13 | 1.65 |
23 May 2008 | 3.84 | 4.88 | 4.25 | 1.67 |
30 May 2008 | 4.03 | 4.97 | 4.36 | 1.78 |
6 June 2008 | 3.98 | 4.99 | 4.41 | 1.75 |
13 June 2008 | 4.15 | 5.16 | 4.56 | 1.80 |
20 June 2008 | 4.20 | 5.18 | 4.63 | 1.81 |
27 June 2008 | 4.09 | 5.09 | 4.57 | 1.68 |
4 July 2008 | 4.00 | 5.08 | 4.59 | 1.66 |
11 July 2008 | 3.90 | 4.89 | 4.42 | 1.62 |
18 July 2008 | 3.98 | 4.91 | 4.44 | 1.58 |
25 July 2008 | 4.11 | 5.01 | 4.62 | ND |
1 August 2008 | 4.04 | 4.87 | 4.42 | 1.54 |
8 August 2008 | 3.99 | 4.74 | 4.30 | 1.51 |
15 August 2008 | 3.91 | 4.63 | 4.22 | 1.45 |
22 August 2008 | 3.83 | 4.58 | 4.17 | 1.44 |
29 August 2008 | 3.79 | 4.51 | 4.15 | 1.42 |
5 September 2008 | 3.69 | 4.46 | 4.10 | 1.47 |
12 September 2008 | 3.66 | 4.49 | 4.09 | 1.51 |
19 September 2008 | 3.54 | 4.46 | 4.06 | ND |
26 September 2008 | 3.84 | 4.62 | 4.21 | 1.48 |
3 October 2008 | 3.70 | 4.41 | 3.97 | 1.49 |
10 October 2008 | 3.69 | 4.32 | 3.84 | 1.44 |
17 October 2008 | 4.02 | 4.70 | 4.08 | ND |
24 October 2008 | 3.74 | 4.51 | 3.86 | 1.53 |
31 October 2008 | 3.92 | 4.43 | 3.79 | 1.49 |
7 November 2008 | 3.82 | 4.38 | 3.76 | 1.50 |
14 November 2008 | 3.78 | 4.14 | 3.66 | 1.50 |
21 November 2008 | 3.38 | 3.99 | 3.53 | 1.46 |
28 November 2008 | 3.10 | 3.83 | 3.32 | ND |
5 December 2008 | 2.66 | 3.49 | 3.07 | 1.37 |
12 December 2008 | 2.67 | 3.59 | 3.22 | 1.40 |
19 December 2008 | 2.26 | 3.29 | 3.06 | 1.31 |
26 December 2008 | 2.18 | 3.08 | 2.94 | ND |
2 January 2009 | 2.24 | 3.05 | 2.94 | ND |
Note: As shown in the figure, the series extend to about June 19, 2009. United States generally increases to end at about 3.7. United Kingdom generally increases to about 3.75 by early February, decreases to nearly 3.0 by mid-March, and increases to end at about 3.85. Germany generally increases to end at about 3.5. Japan generally increases to end at about 1.5.
Top-right panel
Five-Year Sovereign CDS Premiums
Period | United States | United Kingdom | Germany | Japan |
---|---|---|---|---|
2 January 2009 | 60.86 | 105.15 | 45.23 | 42.76 |
5 January 2009 | 62.08 | 109.13 | 45.31 | 41.88 |
6 January 2009 | 60.46 | 107.92 | 43.70 | 37.70 |
7 January 2009 | 59.46 | 102.10 | 40.12 | 37.93 |
8 January 2009 | 55.76 | 100.63 | 40.45 | 38.02 |
9 January 2009 | 54.24 | 101.70 | 43.64 | 37.62 |
12 January 2009 | 54.86 | 102.54 | 44.36 | 37.62 |
13 January 2009 | 56.25 | 107.25 | 46.13 | 38.82 |
14 January 2009 | 59.60 | 115.02 | 50.26 | 39.27 |
15 January 2009 | 58.89 | 118.90 | 51.44 | 40.23 |
16 January 2009 | 61.13 | 125.70 | 53.54 | 40.29 |
19 January 2009 | 65.13 | 126.42 | 53.79 | 41.50 |
20 January 2009 | 66.48 | 143.90 | 57.28 | 40.00 |
21 January 2009 | 62.71 | 147.70 | 59.44 | 40.94 |
22 January 2009 | 71.69 | 135.58 | 58.83 | 43.33 |
23 January 2009 | 70.67 | 141.56 | 61.76 | 41.43 |
26 January 2009 | 71.00 | 135.44 | 60.14 | 41.43 |
27 January 2009 | 66.97 | 129.42 | 56.56 | 42.14 |
28 January 2009 | 65.58 | 124.58 | 57.56 | 41.80 |
29 January 2009 | 65.58 | 122.64 | 56.79 | 43.37 |
30 January 2009 | 62.85 | 123.44 | 57.01 | 46.39 |
2 February 2009 | 62.86 | 125.83 | 57.42 | 53.97 |
3 February 2009 | 76.13 | 128.83 | 57.48 | 55.38 |
4 February 2009 | 77.00 | 126.56 | 57.78 | 52.81 |
5 February 2009 | 79.50 | 126.72 | 57.89 | 53.95 |
6 February 2009 | 79.50 | 126.60 | 61.34 | 55.53 |
9 February 2009 | 77.50 | 126.45 | 61.17 | 56.04 |
10 February 2009 | 77.83 | 126.25 | 61.45 | 57.59 |
11 February 2009 | 77.83 | 126.66 | 61.81 | 57.59 |
12 February 2009 | 80.00 | 134.50 | 63.19 | 69.30 |
13 February 2009 | 79.50 | 144.58 | 65.44 | 75.80 |
16 February 2009 | 80.00 | 148.17 | 65.43 | 78.07 |
17 February 2009 | 81.50 | 164.50 | 72.99 | 118.99 |
18 February 2009 | 89.75 | 162.63 | 84.09 | 105.39 |
19 February 2009 | 89.83 | 157.54 | 85.63 | 99.51 |
20 February 2009 | 90.00 | 163.28 | 90.38 | 100.74 |
23 February 2009 | 99.75 | 162.61 | 89.49 | 96.04 |
24 February 2009 | 97.00 | 164.63 | 91.38 | 96.56 |
25 February 2009 | 93.67 | 164.02 | 90.35 | 96.75 |
26 February 2009 | 90.75 | 148.94 | 87.73 | 94.76 |
27 February 2009 | 92.25 | 145.30 | 84.88 | 96.34 |
2 March 2009 | 93.00 | 149.13 | 85.77 | 95.97 |
3 March 2009 | 94.75 | 154.30 | 87.28 | 104.96 |
4 March 2009 | 94.67 | 154.88 | 86.93 | 101.55 |
5 March 2009 | 97.50 | 155.24 | 87.67 | 95.81 |
6 March 2009 | 100.25 | 158.00 | 89.67 | 112.74 |
9 March 2009 | 97.33 | 159.30 | 90.46 | 105.23 |
10 March 2009 | 92.33 | 154.38 | 87.58 | 113.16 |
11 March 2009 | 90.00 | 144.86 | 81.68 | 118.17 |
12 March 2009 | 86.33 | 143.40 | 79.13 | 112.76 |
13 March 2009 | 82.33 | 137.73 | 76.90 | 114.51 |
16 March 2009 | 73.00 | 137.25 | 66.77 | 104.51 |
17 March 2009 | 73.00 | 131.50 | 68.42 | 100.00 |
18 March 2009 | 72.67 | 130.86 | 67.24 | 92.56 |
19 March 2009 | 70.88 | 127.01 | 66.16 | 98.00 |
20 March 2009 | 65.50 | 117.96 | 61.65 | 98.00 |
23 March 2009 | 63.67 | 111.91 | 57.74 | 95.20 |
24 March 2009 | 61.67 | 110.60 | 54.40 | 89.10 |
25 March 2009 | 61.67 | 115.38 | 50.61 | 82.62 |
26 March 2009 | 57.00 | 112.83 | 50.47 | 89.63 |
27 March 2009 | 56.50 | 110.59 | 52.98 | 85.25 |
30 March 2009 | 60.00 | 117.89 | 56.55 | 84.80 |
31 March 2009 | 60.50 | 123.42 | 56.73 | 87.02 |
1 April 2009 | 63.00 | 124.70 | 55.71 | 90.06 |
2 April 2009 | 57.33 | 116.40 | 54.53 | 89.88 |
3 April 2009 | 49.25 | 100.93 | 44.99 | 84.76 |
6 April 2009 | 47.00 | 91.17 | 44.70 | 76.61 |
7 April 2009 | 48.00 | 92.31 | 45.80 | 78.31 |
8 April 2009 | 48.00 | 96.92 | 45.65 | 78.69 |
9 April 2009 | 46.50 | 93.41 | 43.85 | 78.05 |
10 April 2009 | 46.50 | 93.41 | 43.85 | 78.53 |
13 April 2009 | 46.50 | 90.99 | 43.85 | 76.05 |
14 April 2009 | 44.50 | 89.39 | 41.71 | 73.24 |
15 April 2009 | 39.67 | 87.24 | 40.81 | 73.53 |
16 April 2009 | 40.00 | 84.88 | 40.61 | 68.63 |
17 April 2009 | 40.00 | 83.85 | 41.28 | 63.11 |
20 April 2009 | 43.25 | 86.51 | 41.32 | 68.45 |
21 April 2009 | 46.00 | 92.54 | 43.32 | 67.52 |
22 April 2009 | 47.55 | 99.10 | 43.81 | 68.72 |
23 April 2009 | 44.33 | 99.10 | 40.95 | 69.75 |
24 April 2009 | 44.33 | 99.72 | 41.55 | 68.86 |
27 April 2009 | 38.50 | 99.03 | 41.32 | 67.82 |
28 April 2009 | 43.50 | 101.44 | 41.65 | 67.28 |
29 April 2009 | 40.67 | 101.20 | 41.00 | 67.28 |
30 April 2009 | 36.40 | 96.58 | 37.89 | 69.31 |
1 May 2009 | 36.40 | 95.30 | 37.64 | 66.81 |
4 May 2009 | 36.40 | 95.30 | 38.27 | 66.81 |
5 May 2009 | 37.00 | 89.91 | 35.43 | 66.81 |
6 May 2009 | 34.67 | 81.57 | 33.40 | 66.81 |
7 May 2009 | 27.00 | 70.75 | 24.50 | 56.72 |
8 May 2009 | 22.00 | 58.88 | 23.40 | 54.43 |
11 May 2009 | 22.50 | 60.88 | 23.33 | 49.22 |
12 May 2009 | 23.00 | 60.98 | 24.64 | 49.83 |
13 May 2009 | 28.00 | 67.25 | 28.87 | 49.75 |
14 May 2009 | 31.00 | 72.24 | 32.83 | 49.75 |
15 May 2009 | 31.00 | 69.60 | 32.38 | 49.13 |
18 May 2009 | 36.15 | 75.98 | 35.79 | 53.46 |
19 May 2009 | 30.00 | 73.57 | 32.67 | 49.63 |
20 May 2009 | 29.00 | 72.32 | 30.40 | 49.63 |
21 May 2009 | 32.67 | 80.00 | 34.10 | 47.20 |
22 May 2009 | 32.00 | 82.45 | 36.88 | 42.93 |
25 May 2009 | 32.00 | 82.45 | 36.88 | 40.00 |
26 May 2009 | 36.00 | 83.03 | 37.08 | 37.40 |
27 May 2009 | 38.67 | 85.52 | 38.25 | 37.55 |
28 May 2009 | 45.50 | 88.64 | 39.86 | 38.04 |
29 May 2009 | 44.00 | 86.34 | 39.25 | 39.28 |
1 June 2009 | 40.50 | 83.20 | 36.17 | 39.62 |
2 June 2009 | 38.67 | 79.90 | 33.60 | 34.52 |
3 June 2009 | 39.91 | 80.39 | 33.50 | 34.52 |
4 June 2009 | 40.63 | 83.46 | 35.00 | 36.46 |
5 June 2009 | 40.00 | 85.20 | 34.00 | 36.62 |
8 June 2009 | 40.75 | 85.39 | 34.85 | 36.90 |
9 June 2009 | 40.67 | 87.37 | 35.05 | 37.84 |
10 June 2009 | 40.67 | 84.75 | 35.00 | 38.81 |
11 June 2009 | 40.67 | 85.38 | 33.75 | 39.06 |
12 June 2009 | 40.00 | 86.17 | 33.75 | 44.78 |
15 June 2009 | 41.50 | 85.46 | 34.00 | 42.55 |
16 June 2009 | 42.50 | 87.67 | 34.50 | 42.63 |
17 June 2009 | 41.70 | 90.29 | 35.50 | 46.52 |
18 June 2009 | 41.88 | 90.00 | 36.77 | 46.92 |
19 June 2009 | 44.25 | 86.31 | 36.25 | 47.10 |
22 June 2009 | 42.82 | 87.83 | 36.73 | 43.74 |
U.S. External Sector
Middle-left panel
Trade in Real Goods and Services
2008 | 2009 | 2010p | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1-Q3 | Q4 | Q1e | Q2p | H2p | ||
Contribution to Real GDP Growth (percentage points, a.r.*) | ||||||
1. Net Exports | 1.6 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
Growth Rates (percent, a.r.*) | ||||||
2. Imports | -3.9 | -17.5 | -36.3 | -12.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
3. Exports | 6.7 | -23.6 | -30.6 | -5.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
* Change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated. Return to table
Middle-right panel
Real GDP
Period | Total foreign | United States |
---|---|---|
2008:Q4 | -7.2 | -6.4 |
2009:Q1 | -8.5 | -5.5 |
2009:Q2 | -1.4 | -1.0 |
2009:H2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
2010 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
* Approximate change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated. Return to table
Bottom-left panel
Current Account
Period | Percent of GDP | Billions of dollars |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | -5.74 | -697.88 |
2005:Q2 | -5.82 | -716.24 |
2005:Q3 | -5.91 | -741.35 |
2005:Q4 | -6.61 | -839.26 |
2006:Q1 | -6.13 | -794.60 |
2006:Q2 | -6.15 | -808.31 |
2006:Q3 | -6.48 | -859.16 |
2006:Q4 | -5.63 | -752.12 |
2007:Q1 | -5.89 | -796.40 |
2007:Q2 | -5.55 | -762.12 |
2007:Q3 | -4.92 | -686.46 |
2007:Q4 | -4.71 | -661.32 |
2008:Q1 | -5.07 | -717.19 |
2008:Q2 | -5.25 | -750.88 |
2008:Q3 | -5.11 | -736.71 |
2008:Q4 | -4.36 | -619.50 |
2009:Q1 | -2.88 | -405.99 |
Forecast | ||
2009:Q2 | -3.35 | -470.88 |
2009:Q3 | -3.60 | -507.92 |
2009:Q4 | -3.87 | -551.02 |
2010:Q1 | -4.13 | -592.74 |
2010:Q2 | -3.92 | -568.92 |
2010:Q3 | -3.88 | -568.37 |
2010:Q4 | -4.10 | -607.11 |
Bottom-right panel
Oil Import Balance
Period | Percent of GDP | Billions of dollars |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | -1.76 | -214.18 |
2005:Q2 | -1.87 | -230.10 |
2005:Q3 | -2.13 | -266.75 |
2005:Q4 | -2.33 | -296.40 |
2006:Q1 | -2.25 | -291.44 |
2006:Q2 | -2.38 | -312.86 |
2006:Q3 | -2.50 | -331.77 |
2006:Q4 | -2.05 | -273.65 |
2007:Q1 | -2.09 | -281.80 |
2007:Q2 | -2.27 | -311.16 |
2007:Q3 | -2.36 | -329.24 |
2007:Q4 | -2.86 | -401.70 |
2008:Q1 | -3.18 | -450.25 |
2008:Q2 | -3.48 | -497.68 |
2008:Q3 | -3.63 | -523.39 |
2008:Q4 | -2.41 | -341.79 |
2009:Q1 | -1.48 | -208.90 |
Forecast | ||
2009:Q2 | -1.72 | -241.88 |
2009:Q3 | -1.93 | -272.72 |
2009:Q4 | -2.12 | -301.18 |
2010:Q1 | -2.18 | -313.61 |
2010:Q2 | -2.07 | -300.73 |
2010:Q3 | -1.96 | -287.66 |
2010:Q4 | -2.19 | -323.69 |
Exhibit 8
Outlook for Growth in the Advanced Foreign Economies
Top panel
Real GDP*
2008 | 2009 | 2010p | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q4 | Q1e | Q2p | H2p | |||
1. | Total Foreign | -7.3 | -8.6 | -1.4 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
2. | April Greenbook | -7.3 | -7.2 | -2.4 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
3. | Advanced Foreign Economies | -6.0 | -7.6 | -2.2 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
4. | Japan | -13.5 | -14.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
5. | Euro area | -6.8 | -9.7 | -3.0 | -0.5 | 1.6 |
6. | United Kingdom | -6.1 | -7.3 | -0.9 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
7. | Canada | -3.7 | -5.4 | -2.8 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
* GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text
** Change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated. Return to table
Middle-left panel
Purchasing Managers Indexes*
Period | U.K. | Euro area | Japan |
---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 58.19 | 57.51 | ND |
February 2007 | 57.44 | 57.71 | ND |
March 2007 | 56.98 | 57.39 | ND |
April 2007 | 57.09 | 56.94 | ND |
May 2007 | 56.92 | 56.84 | ND |
June 2007 | 57.66 | 57.77 | ND |
July 2007 | 56.98 | 57.52 | ND |
August 2007 | 57.81 | 57.36 | ND |
September 2007 | 56.66 | 54.69 | 49.10 |
October 2007 | 53.49 | 54.65 | 49.06 |
November 2007 | 53.69 | 54.12 | 50.73 |
December 2007 | 53.60 | 53.28 | 51.26 |
January 2008 | 52.90 | 51.79 | 48.57 |
February 2008 | 53.99 | 52.78 | 48.84 |
March 2008 | 51.91 | 51.80 | 47.71 |
April 2008 | 50.20 | 51.94 | 47.65 |
May 2008 | 49.37 | 51.05 | 46.78 |
June 2008 | 46.16 | 49.30 | 45.25 |
July 2008 | 46.16 | 47.75 | 42.48 |
August 2008 | 48.73 | 48.17 | 42.65 |
September 2008 | 44.47 | 46.88 | 40.45 |
October 2008 | 42.31 | 43.61 | 38.77 |
November 2008 | 38.06 | 38.92 | 35.70 |
December 2008 | 38.93 | 38.18 | 33.11 |
January 2009 | 40.84 | 38.29 | 30.05 |
February 2009 | 40.28 | 36.22 | 30.85 |
March 2009 | 44.52 | 38.25 | 33.04 |
April 2009 | 47.71 | 41.06 | 39.32 |
May 2009 | 50.85 | 44.03 | 42.85 |
June 2009 | ND | 44.40 | ND |
* Total economy PMIs. Latest value for euro area is flash estimate. Return to text
Middle-right panel
Retail Sales Volume
Period | U.K. | Euro area | Japan* |
---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 3.37 | 1.76 | 0.88 |
February 2007 | 4.95 | 1.79 | 1.90 |
March 2007 | 5.12 | 3.18 | 1.25 |
April 2007 | 4.10 | 2.05 | 0.80 |
May 2007 | 3.79 | 1.44 | 1.05 |
June 2007 | 3.76 | 1.83 | -0.04 |
July 2007 | 4.33 | 1.55 | 1.37 |
August 2007 | 4.62 | 1.39 | 2.14 |
September 2007 | 5.42 | 1.63 | 1.08 |
October 2007 | 3.73 | 1.18 | 0.71 |
November 2007 | 4.10 | 0.34 | 0.96 |
December 2007 | 2.37 | -0.32 | 1.49 |
January 2008 | 4.79 | 1.25 | 0.85 |
February 2008 | 5.09 | 0.79 | 2.35 |
March 2008 | 3.09 | -0.61 | 0.36 |
April 2008 | 2.44 | -0.53 | 0.41 |
May 2008 | 6.09 | 0.34 | -0.19 |
June 2008 | 1.49 | -0.91 | 0.41 |
July 2008 | 1.11 | -1.30 | 2.01 |
August 2008 | 1.47 | -1.40 | -1.22 |
September 2008 | 1.10 | -1.28 | -0.07 |
October 2008 | 1.57 | -1.96 | -0.26 |
November 2008 | 0.92 | -1.73 | -1.77 |
December 2008 | 3.24 | -1.92 | -2.94 |
January 2009 | 2.56 | -2.76 | -3.23 |
February 2009 | -1.53 | -3.25 | -6.40 |
March 2009 | 0.91 | -2.70 | -3.74 |
April 2009 | 2.66 | -2.19 | -2.86 |
May 2009 | -1.68 | ND | ND |
* Monthly real consumption. Return to table
Bottom-left panel
Contributions of Fiscal Stimulus
Period | Japan | U.K. | Euro area | U.S. |
---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 1.50 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 1.05 |
2010 | 0.10 | -1.00 | 0.40 | 0.75 |
Note: Values are approximate.
Source: Staff estimates.
Bottom-center panel
Unemployment Rate*
Period | U.S. | U.K. | Euro area | Japan |
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 |
February 2007 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 |
March 2007 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 4.0 |
April 2007 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 3.9 |
May 2007 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 |
June 2007 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 |
July 2007 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 3.6 |
August 2007 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 3.8 |
September 2007 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 4.0 |
October 2007 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 4.0 |
November 2007 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 3.8 |
December 2007 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 |
January 2008 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 3.8 |
February 2008 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 3.9 |
March 2008 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 3.8 |
April 2008 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 4.0 |
May 2008 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 4.0 |
June 2008 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.1 |
July 2008 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.0 |
August 2008 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 4.1 |
September 2008 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.0 |
October 2008 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 |
November 2008 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 4.0 |
December 2008 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 |
January 2009 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 |
February 2009 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 4.4 |
March 2009 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 |
April 2009 | 8.9 | ND | 9.2 | 5.0 |
May 2009 | 9.4 | ND | ND | ND |
Forecast | ||||
2009:Q1 | ND | 7.10 | ND | ND |
2009:Q2 | 9.3 | 7.89 | 9.15 | 5.00 |
2009:Q3 | 9.8 | 8.63 | 9.59 | 5.30 |
2009:Q4 | 10.0 | 9.15 | 9.98 | 5.59 |
2010:Q1 | 10.0 | 9.43 | 10.29 | 5.83 |
2010:Q2 | 9.9 | 9.59 | 10.54 | 5.92 |
2010:Q3 | 9.8 | 9.66 | 10.73 | 6.00 |
2010:Q4 | 9.7 | 9.68 | 10.86 | 6.04 |
2011:Q1 | 9.5 | 9.64 | 10.95 | 6.06 |
2011:Q2 | 9.3 | 9.55 | 11.01 | 6.07 |
2011:Q3 | 9.2 | 9.44 | 11.03 | 6.07 |
2011:Q4 | 9.0 | 9.32 | 11.02 | 6.06 |
* Greenbook forecast for U.S.; forecasts from simple regression for others. Return to text
Bottom-right panel
Output Gaps
Period | U.S. | AFE |
---|---|---|
2008:Q1 | -0.77 | 0.62 |
2008:Q2 | -0.67 | -0.01 |
2008:Q3 | -1.38 | -0.75 |
2008:Q4 | -3.56 | -2.82 |
2009:Q1 | -5.38 | -5.20 |
Forecast | ||
2009:Q2 | -6.06 | -6.20 |
2009:Q3 | -6.36 | -6.69 |
2009:Q4 | -6.45 | -6.98 |
2010:Q1 | -6.38 | -7.09 |
2010:Q2 | -6.20 | -7.15 |
2010:Q3 | -5.93 | -7.11 |
2010:Q4 | -5.61 | -7.02 |
* Deviation from potential GDP. Return to table
Exhibit 9 (Last)
Outlook for Growth in the Emerging Market Economies
Top panel
Real GDP*
2008 | 2009 | 2010p | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q4 | Q1e | Q2p | H2p | |||
1. | Emerging Market Economies | -8.8 | -9.8 | -0.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
2. | China | 1.6 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 8.9 |
3. | Other Emerging Asia | -14.0 | -6.6 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 4.4 |
4. | Mexico | -9.8 | -21.5 | -5.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
5. | Other Latin America | -7.4 | -5.0 | -0.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 |
* GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text
** Change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated. Return to table
China
Middle-left panel
Recent Indicators
Period | Investment* | Retail sales volume | PMI (Diffusion index) |
---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 23.44 | 10.75 | 55.1 |
February 2007 | 23.44 | 14.68 | 53.1 |
March 2007 | 26.83 | 12.52 | 56.1 |
April 2007 | 25.85 | 13.06 | 58.6 |
May 2007 | 27.06 | 13.18 | 55.7 |
June 2007 | 28.45 | 12.39 | 54.5 |
July 2007 | 26.39 | 11.49 | 53.3 |
August 2007 | 27.34 | 11.31 | 54.0 |
September 2007 | 24.78 | 11.54 | 56.1 |
October 2007 | 30.72 | 12.14 | 53.2 |
November 2007 | 26.07 | 12.08 | 55.4 |
December 2007 | 18.71 | 13.84 | 55.3 |
January 2008 | 24.27 | 14.14 | 53.0 |
February 2008 | 24.27 | 10.19 | 53.4 |
March 2008 | 27.31 | 12.71 | 58.4 |
April 2008 | 25.37 | 12.88 | 59.2 |
May 2008 | 25.44 | 13.12 | 53.3 |
June 2008 | 29.49 | 14.85 | 52.0 |
July 2008 | 29.23 | 15.45 | 48.4 |
August 2008 | 28.09 | 16.78 | 48.4 |
September 2008 | 29.02 | 16.99 | 51.2 |
October 2008 | 24.39 | 16.66 | 44.6 |
November 2008 | 23.81 | 17.63 | 38.8 |
December 2008 | 22.27 | 17.36 | 41.2 |
January 2009 | 26.53 | 17.68 | 45.3 |
February 2009 | 26.53 | 13.41 | 49.0 |
March 2009 | 30.31 | 16.45 | 52.4 |
April 2009 | 33.96 | 16.98 | 53.5 |
May 2009 | 38.67 | 17.45 | 53.1 |
* Staff estimate from year to date figures. Return to table
Middle-right panel
Imports and Electricity Production
Period | Imports** | Electricity production |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 10.14 | 15.22 |
2005:Q2 | 35.42 | 9.01 |
2005:Q3 | 5.78 | 8.27 |
2005:Q4 | 47.13 | 15.50 |
2006:Q1 | 17.55 | 22.15 |
2006:Q2 | 7.16 | 6.67 |
2006:Q3 | 13.46 | 22.10 |
2006:Q4 | 28.12 | 11.72 |
2007:Q1 | 31.08 | 10.21 |
2007:Q2 | 1.20 | 26.57 |
2007:Q3 | 17.03 | 16.80 |
2007:Q4 | 64.81 | 11.98 |
2008:Q1 | 50.61 | 10.21 |
2008:Q2 | 3.74 | 8.45 |
2008:Q3 | -7.60 | -3.53 |
2008:Q4 | -50.51 | -32.05 |
2009:Q1* | -51.4 | 18.5 |
2009:Q2* | 45.7 | 19.2 |
* 2009:Q1 values are approximate. 2009:Q2 values are approximate average of April and May at annual rate. Return to table
** Source: Haver Analytics. In nominal U.S. dollars. Return to table
Other Emerging Market Economies
Bottom-left panel
Purchasing Managers Indexes*
Period | India | Brazil | Singapore |
---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 55.29 | 52.83 | 52.60 |
February 2007 | 53.63 | 53.67 | 51.50 |
March 2007 | 53.00 | 54.90 | 51.10 |
April 2007 | 53.81 | 55.35 | 49.70 |
May 2007 | 53.37 | 54.29 | 50.00 |
June 2007 | 53.24 | 54.93 | 52.30 |
July 2007 | 52.91 | 54.80 | 53.30 |
August 2007 | 57.93 | 54.85 | 51.70 |
September 2007 | 59.28 | 56.36 | 53.90 |
October 2007 | 61.66 | 57.25 | 52.90 |
November 2007 | 60.85 | 56.45 | 53.80 |
December 2007 | 61.85 | 55.33 | 51.00 |
January 2008 | 60.66 | 54.74 | 50.50 |
February 2008 | 59.45 | 53.36 | 50.30 |
March 2008 | 57.49 | 52.79 | 49.40 |
April 2008 | 57.47 | 54.02 | 49.30 |
May 2008 | 57.45 | 53.53 | 49.00 |
June 2008 | 58.63 | 52.11 | 50.60 |
July 2008 | 57.76 | 53.51 | 51.60 |
August 2008 | 57.95 | 51.12 | 50.60 |
September 2008 | 57.28 | 50.35 | 49.50 |
October 2008 | 52.19 | 45.68 | 45.80 |
November 2008 | 45.76 | 41.60 | 44.30 |
December 2008 | 44.37 | 40.04 | 44.80 |
January 2009 | 46.69 | 38.13 | 45.00 |
February 2009 | 47.03 | 41.60 | 45.00 |
March 2009 | 49.46 | 42.18 | 47.10 |
April 2009 | 53.27 | 44.81 | 49.20 |
May 2009 | 55.74 | 47.80 | 51.20 |
* Manufacturing sector. Return to text
Bottom-center panel
Industrial Production
Period | Brazil | Mexico | Korea | Taiwan |
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
February 2007 | 100.97 | 100.18 | 101.26 | 102.97 |
March 2007 | 102.28 | 102.64 | 99.73 | 102.95 |
April 2007 | 102.33 | 101.14 | 100.72 | 104.48 |
May 2007 | 103.68 | 101.58 | 102.79 | 107.53 |
June 2007 | 104.02 | 102.11 | 103.06 | 108.27 |
July 2007 | 103.92 | 101.85 | 104.32 | 112.98 |
August 2007 | 105.69 | 101.76 | 105.76 | 110.08 |
September 2007 | 104.57 | 102.28 | 105.58 | 110.60 |
October 2007 | 109.06 | 101.85 | 109.27 | 112.89 |
November 2007 | 106.87 | 100.79 | 109.81 | 113.38 |
December 2007 | 106.23 | 102.72 | 110.17 | 114.09 |
January 2008 | 107.95 | 102.99 | 111.88 | 116.21 |
February 2008 | 107.54 | 102.64 | 111.61 | 117.31 |
March 2008 | 108.18 | 103.08 | 111.97 | 115.08 |
April 2008 | 108.35 | 101.85 | 111.88 | 115.21 |
May 2008 | 107.35 | 101.58 | 111.97 | 113.00 |
June 2008 | 110.51 | 101.85 | 111.88 | 112.95 |
July 2008 | 111.93 | 100.79 | 110.44 | 110.64 |
August 2008 | 110.34 | 101.67 | 109.00 | 110.93 |
September 2008 | 111.87 | 99.12 | 109.72 | 105.46 |
October 2008 | 110.30 | 99.21 | 106.93 | 97.16 |
November 2008 | 102.46 | 97.45 | 96.13 | 84.95 |
December 2008 | 89.48 | 95.08 | 86.86 | 78.21 |
January 2009 | 91.38 | 93.06 | 88.30 | 75.81 |
February 2009 | 93.16 | 93.23 | 94.60 | 78.23 |
March 2009 | 93.99 | 91.65 | 99.19 | 85.49 |
April 2009 | 95.06 | 92.53 | 101.80 | 91.13 |
Bottom-right panel
Exports
Period | Mexico | Korea | Singapore |
---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
February 2007 | 102.90 | 98.36 | 90.86 |
March 2007 | 101.32 | 100.58 | 96.75 |
April 2007 | 103.37 | 101.62 | 97.54 |
May 2007 | 105.50 | 102.50 | 96.90 |
June 2007 | 105.45 | 105.27 | 98.86 |
July 2007 | 107.18 | 105.98 | 104.20 |
August 2007 | 108.76 | 107.64 | 101.12 |
September 2007 | 112.23 | 97.04 | 100.89 |
October 2007 | 110.81 | 110.74 | 110.97 |
November 2007 | 116.59 | 115.03 | 111.00 |
December 2007 | 117.00 | 113.34 | 109.88 |
January 2008 | 119.65 | 115.14 | 121.79 |
February 2008 | 116.12 | 117.04 | 116.47 |
March 2008 | 123.69 | 119.05 | 111.28 |
April 2008 | 121.09 | 128.33 | 126.13 |
May 2008 | 120.37 | 129.04 | 121.56 |
June 2008 | 120.91 | 122.02 | 123.06 |
July 2008 | 128.57 | 143.84 | 133.79 |
August 2008 | 118.24 | 126.48 | 117.94 |
September 2008 | 113.57 | 123.17 | 118.88 |
October 2008 | 107.48 | 119.10 | 105.57 |
November 2008 | 100.13 | 92.50 | 93.81 |
December 2008 | 88.51 | 93.58 | 86.35 |
January 2009 | 86.12 | 75.92 | 72.40 |
February 2009 | 85.64 | 95.49 | 82.57 |
March 2009 | 84.81 | 92.89 | 79.75 |
April 2009 | 84.68 | 103.25 | 84.57 |
May 2009 | ND | 92.34 | 84.31 |
Appendix 7: Materials used by Mr. Madigan
Material for Briefing on FOMC Participants' Economic Projections
Brian Madigan
June 23-24, 2009
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
Exhibit 1.
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents, June 2009
Variable | Central tendency | Range | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Longer Run | |
Change in real GDP (Q4/Q4) | ||||||||
June projection | -1.5 to -1.0 | 2.1 to 3.3 | 3.8 to 4.6 | 2.5 to 2.7 | -2.0 to -0.6 | 0.8 to 4.0 | 2.3 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 2.8 |
April projection | -2.0 to -1.3 | 2.0 to 3.0 | 3.5 to 4.8 | 2.5 to 2.7 | -2.5 to -0.5 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 2.3 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 3.0 |
Memo: June Greenbook | -1.1 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | ||||
Unemployment rate (Q4) | ||||||||
June projection | 9.8 to 10.1 | 9.5 to 9.8 | 8.4 to 8.8 | 4.8 to 5.0 | 9.7 to 10.5 | 8.5 to 10.6 | 6.8 to 9.2 | 4.5 to 6.0 |
April projection | 9.2 to 9.6 | 9.0 to 9.5 | 7.7 to 8.5 | 4.8 to 5.0 | 9.1 to 10.0 | 8.0 to 9.6 | 6.5 to 9.0 | 4.5 to 5.3 |
Memo: June Greenbook | 10.0 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 5.0 | ||||
PCE inflation (Q4/Q4) | ||||||||
PCE inflation | 1.0 to 1.4 | 1.2 to 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.0 | 1.7 to 2.0 | 1.0 to 1.8 | 0.9 to 2.0 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 1.5 to 2.1 |
April projection | 0.6 to 0.9 | 1.0 to 1.6 | 1.0 to 1.9 | 1.7 to 2.0 | -0.5 to 1.2 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
Memo: June Greenbook | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | ||||
Core PCE inflation (Q4/Q4) | ||||||||
Core PCE inflation | 1.3 to 1.6 | 1.0 to 1.5 | 0.9 to 1.7 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 0.5 to 2.0 | 0.2 to 2.5 | ||
April projection | 1.0 to 1.5 | 0.7 to 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.5 to 2.0 | 0.2 to 2.5 | ||
Memo: June Greenbook | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Exhibit 2.
Risks and Uncertainty in Economic Projections
Top-left panel
Uncertainty about GDP Growth
Top-right panel
Risks to GDP Growth
Bottom-left panel
Uncertainty about PCE Inflation
Bottom-right panel
Risks to PCE Inflation
Appendix 8: Materials used by Mr. Stockton
Orders and Shipments of Durable Goods
Top panel
Category | 2008 | 2009 | 2009 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Mar. | Apr.r | Maya | |
Annual rate | Monthly rate | |||||
Nondefense capital goods | ||||||
Orders | -14.0 | -49.9 | -49.1 | -1.0 | -2.9 | 10.0 |
Aircraft | -66.3 | -99.5 | -100.0 | 102.3 | -6.4 | 630.5 |
Excluding aircraft | -5.2 | -36.5 | -44.2 | -1.4 | -2.9 | 4.8 |
Computers and peripherals | -36.6 | -20.8 | -18.4 | -4.6 | -6.6 | 9.4 |
Communications equipment | 16.7 | -28.7 | -58.7 | 7.8 | -4.7 | 6.0 |
All other | -3.5 | -38.4 | -44.7 | -1.9 | -2.3 | 4.2 |
Shipments | -.8 | -19.8 | -28.1 | -.9 | -2.6 | -.3 |
Aircraft | -8.0 | -65.3 | 233.3 | 9.4 | -1.5 | -7.6 |
Excluding aircraft | -.3 | -15.5 | -35.4 | -1.7 | -2.7 | .3 |
Computers and peripherals | -28.7 | -25.3 | -.8 | -2.8 | -1.4 | 1.6 |
Communications equipment | -10.7 | -16.6 | -47.3 | 3.0 | -4.2 | -2.4 |
All other | 4.0 | -14.4 | -36.7 | -1.9 | -2.7 | .4 |
Supplementary orders series | ||||||
Durable goods | -8.1 | -45.2 | -39.0 | -2.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Real adjusted durable goods | -13.0 | -45.2 | -36.3 | -1.3 | .7 | 2.0 |
Capital goods | -10.3 | -47.3 | -47.2 | -2.6 | 1.7 | 9.5 |
Nondefense | -14.0 | -49.9 | -49.1 | -1.0 | -2.9 | 10.0 |
Defense | 20.3 | -26.7 | -33.9 | -11.1 | 28.5 | 7.4 |
r Revised. Return to table
a Advance. Return to table
Source: Census Bureau.
Bottom-left panel
Computers and Peripherals
A line chart shows two series, Shipments and Orders of computers and peripherals. Unit is billions of dollars, ratio scale. Shipments start at a level slightly under 9 billion dollars at the beginning of 2000. From the end of 2000 to early 2003, the series steadily drops, to around 5.5 billion dollars in early 2003, and after a brief rise, to just below 5 billion dollars in mid-2004. The series climbs, with a few sudden drops, reaching about 6 billion dollars at the beginning of 2006, before plummeting to around 4.5 billion at the end of 2006. The series fluctuates between about 4.5 and 5.8 billion until early 2008, where it continues to drop steadily until the end of the series in May 2009, at a level of about 4.3 billion. The Orders series mostly follows the trajectory of the Shipments series. It begins at a level slightly above 8 billion dollars at the beginning of 2000. From the end of 2000 to early 2003, the series steadily drops, to around 5.5 billion dollars in early 2003, and after a brief rise, to about 4.5 billion dollars in mid-2004. The series fluctuates between about 4.8 and 5.3 billion dollars until the beginning of 2006, where it peaks slightly above 6 billion before plummeting to around 4.5 billion at the end of 2006. The series fluctuates between about 4.5 and 5.8 billion until early 2008, where it continues to drop steadily until the end of the series in May 2009, at a level of about 4.3 billion.
Source: Census Bureau.
Bottom-center panel
Communications Equipment
A line chart shows two series, Shipments and Orders of communications equipment. Unit is billions of dollars, ratio scale. The Shipments series starts around 9 billion dollars in 2000, and climbs to around 10 billion in mid 2001 before falling to about 4.2 billion in early 2003. The series fluctuates between about 3.9 and 5 billion until hitting a high of about 5.8 billion in early 2006. The series continues to fluctuate, mostly exhibiting slight decreases until it falls from about 5.7 billion in early 2008 to under 4 billion by early 2009. The Orders series mostly follows the trajectory of the shipments series, but fluctuates much more wildly. It begins at a level of about 10 billion in early 2000, immediately falling to 8 billion and then rising to 14 billion, before falling again to 10 billion by early 2001. The series dips dramatically, to 6 billion by late-2001, under 4 billion in early 2002, and to just above 2 billion in late 2002. The series then fluctuates less dramatically, between about 3.8 and 6 billion, until early 2006 where it rises to about 6.5 billion, and fluctuates between about 5 and 6 billion before dipping to about 4 billion when the series ends in early 2009.
Source: Census Bureau.
Bottom-right panel
Other (non-high-tech, nontransportation)
A line chart shows two series, other Shipments and Orders. Unit is billions of dollars, ratio scale. Shipments starts at about 44 billion in early 2000, before steadily dropping to about 38 billion by early 2002. The series rises to about 40 billion in late 2002, falls back to about 38 billion, and then steadily increases from early 2003, reaching about 52 billion in late 2006, and 54 billion at its peak in early 2008. The series then falls dramatically, first to 51 billion in mid-2008, and then again to about 44 billion by the beginning of 2009. The Orders series mostly follows the trajectory of the shipments series. It begins at a level slightly above 46 billion dollars in 2000, fluctuates between there and 42 billion in 2000, and then steadily drops to about 36 billion in early 2002. The series then rises continuously, except a few small drops, hitting a peak of about 56 billion in mid-2006. After dropping to about 51 billion several months later, the series hits about 56 billion again in early 2008, before dropping dramatically to about 42 billion in early 2009 when the series ends.
Source: Census Bureau.
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Top panel
Change in Inventories at Durable Goods Manufacturers
2008 | 2009 | 2009 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | |
Durable goods | 24.2 | 26.4 | 15.0 | -56.0 | -54.9 | -68.4 | -44.8 | -29.7 |
Lumber and wood prod. | -.6 | 1.1 | -1.3 | .3 | -1.6 | 2.5 | -3.1 | -2.8 |
Nonmetalic mineral prod. | -.4 | .6 | -.4 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -.5 |
Primary metals | 7.3 | 6.6 | -12.1 | -12.6 | -13.4 | -14.0 | -12.5 | -10.2 |
Fabricated metals | 4.4 | 5.6 | -2.8 | -11.4 | -10.0 | -15.0 | -11.6 | -6.4 |
Machinery | 1.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | -8.4 | -10.1 | -15.3 | -8.5 | -4.3 |
Computer and electronic prod. | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | -6.4 | -2.6 | -8.4 | -2.7 | 1.2 |
Electrical equipment | .5 | .5 | -2.5 | -4.2 | -4.6 | -2.0 | -2.9 | -1.5 |
Transportation equipment | 9.9 | 5.1 | 27.7 | -9.2 | -5.8 | -11.3 | 3.4 | -3.8 |
Motor vehicles | -1.3 | -3.2 | -4.7 | -7.8 | -6.2 | -8.1 | -5.5 | -4.1 |
Aircraft & parts | 10.9 | 9.0 | 31.1 | -1.8 | -.9 | -1.5 | 8.7 | -.6 |
Furniture | -.4 | -.1 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -3.1 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -1.5 |
Other durables | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | -.9 | -1.8 | -1.1 | -2.9 | .1 |
Memo: Inventory-shipments ratio, durable goods |
1.57 | 1.61 | 1.76 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.90 |
Source: Census Bureau.
Bottom-left panel
Real Adjusted Durable Goods Orders
A line chart shows one series, 3-month moving average. Unit is percent. The series starts at about -1.5 percent in early 2002, and fluctuates between its beginning level and 2 percent until late 2003, where it hits a peak of about 2.5 percent before plummeting to below -2 percent, quickly rising to about 1.5 percent, and then dipping again to about -2 percent in mid-2004. The series fluctuates with mostly upward movements until reaching about 2.3 percent in early 2005, and then fluctuating between that level and 0 until mid 2006, where the series falls to about -1.8 percent in early 2007, before rising to almost 1 percent, and falling again to about -1.2 percent in late 2007. The series continues to fluctuate between -1 and 1 percent until early 2008, where it abruptly falls to about -5.5 percent in late 2008. The three-month moving average moves back up to about 0.5 percent by May 2009.
Source: Calculated by FRB staff.
Bottom-right panel
Inventory-Shipments Ratio at Durable Goods Manufacturers
A line chart shows one series, months' supply. The series starts at about 1.72 in 1996, before falling to about 1.51 in mid-1998. The series climbs to about 1.63 shortly after, before falling to about 1.49 in early 1999, and continues to hover around 1.5 until steadily rising from early 2000 and hitting a peak of about 1.65 in early 2001. The series falls steadily, to about 1.45 in late 2002, quickly rises to 1.52 at the end of 2002, and then declines until reaching about 1.3 in early 2004. The series fluctuates between 1.3 and 1.4 until late 2006, where it begins climbing up, first hitting about 1.55 in early 2008, and then jumping to about 1.9 by May 2009.
Source: Census Bureau.
Appendix 9: Materials used by Mr. Carpenter (corrected)*
*As indicated by Mr. Madigan on page 165 of 261
Material for
FOMC Briefing on Projections of the Balance Sheet, the Monetary Base, and Federal Reserve Income
Seth Carpenter
June 23, 2009
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
[Note: The information in Appendix 9 is identical to the information in Appendix 2, except that Exhibit 1 has been corrected to display dates rather than their integer equivalents.]
Appendix 10: Materials used by Mr. Madigan
Material for Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives
Brian Madigan
June 24, 2009
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
April FOMC Statement
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower. Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment, and staffing. Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments.
[Note: In the June FOMC Statement Alternatives, strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]
June FOMC Statement -- Alternative A
- Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Indicators of consumer and business sentiment have risen, and household expenditures have shown further signs of stabilizing; nonetheless, spending remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses continue to cut back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although conditions in financial markets have generally improved, the Committee judges that further monetary policy stimulus is warranted to help ensure that the sharp rise in some longer-term interest rates over recent months does not undermine a recovery in overall economic activity.
- Substantial resource slack is likely to persist here and abroad, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee still sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.
- In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve is employing a wide array of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate [for an extended period|at least through mid-2010 ]. To provide additional support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to facilitate further improvement in private credit market conditions, the Committee decided to increase the total amount of its large-scale securities purchases. The Committee now anticipates that over the course of this year the Federal Reserve will purchase up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities, up to $200 billion of agency debt, and up to $750 billion of Treasury securities. The Committee will evaluate the timing, composition, and amounts of any additional purchases of securities in view of market conditions, the evolving economic outlook, and the necessity of ensuring that policy accommodation can ultimately be withdrawn smoothly and at the appropriate time. The Federal Reserve will also be monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted in light of financial and economic developments.
June FOMC Statement -- Alternative B
- Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months, and indicators of consumer and business sentiment have risen. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
- The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
- In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted. [Of course, the Committee will continue to take careful account of the necessity of ensuring that policy accommodation can ultimately be withdrawn smoothly and at the appropriate time.]
June FOMC Statement -- Alternative C
- Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have improved in recent months, and indicators of consumer and business sentiment have risen. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses have continued to cut back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. The Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual recovery in economic activity that is expected to begin later this year.
- Although the prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late, core inflation has remained moderate, and the Committee expects that overall inflation will remain subdued.
- In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve is employing a wide array of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate until late this year. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee anticipates that the pace of purchases of such securities will taper off gradually by the end of this year. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing, composition, and overall amounts of its securities purchases and to carefully monitor the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. The Federal Reserve will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.
Table 1: Overview of Alternative Language for the June 23-24, 2009 FOMC Announcement
April FOMC | Alternative | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | B | C | |||
1. Economic Activity |
Outlook | "likely to remain weak for a time" |
----- | "likely to remain weak for a time" |
recovery "expected to begin later this year" |
Pace of Recovery |
gradual | ----- | gradual | gradual | |
Risk Assessment |
----- | Recovery could be undermined by higher long rates, absent further monetary stimulus |
----- | ----- | |
2. Inflation | Outlook | "will remain subdued" |
"will remain subdued" |
"will remain subdued for a time" |
"will remain subdued" |
Rationale | increasing slack here and abroad |
substantial slack "likely to persist here and abroad" |
recent rise in energy prices; substantial slack "likely to dampen cost pressures" |
recent rise in energy prices |
|
Risk Assessment |
some downside risk |
still some downside risk |
----- | ----- | |
3. Policy Decision |
Overview | "all available tools" |
"a wide array of tools" |
"all available tools" |
"a wide array of tools" |
Forward Guidance on Funds Rate |
"anticipates… for an extended period" |
"anticipates… for an extended period" or "at least through mid-2010" |
"continues to anticipate… for an extended period" |
"anticipates… until late this year" |
|
Changes in LSAPs |
----- | $750 billion in Treasuries by end of year |
----- | "will taper off gradually" by end of year |
|
Evaluation of LSAPs |
"timing and overall amounts" |
"timing, composition, and amounts", subject to exit strategy |
"timing and overall amounts" |
"timing, composition, and overall amounts" |
|
Adjustments to Programs |
----- | "as warranted" | "as warranted" [carefully reflecting the exit strategy] |
"as warranted" |