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Summary of Economic Projections
Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections

January 25-26, 2011 Tables and Charts

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Table 1
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents, January 2011

Percent
Variable Central tendency1 Range2
2011 2012 2013 Longer run 2011 2012 2013 Longer run
Change in real GDP 3.4 to 3.9 3.5 to 4.4 3.7 to 4.6 2.5 to 2.8 3.2 to 4.2 3.4 to 4.5 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
November projection 3.0 to 3.6 3.6 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.6 2.5 to 2.8 2.5 to 4.0 2.6 to 4.7 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
Unemployment rate 8.8 to 9.0 7.6 to 8.1 6.8 to 7.2 5.0 to 6.0 8.4 to 9.0 7.2 to 8.4 6.0 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.2
November projection 8.9 to 9.1 7.7 to 8.2 6.9 to 7.4 5.0 to 6.0 8.2 to 9.3 7.0 to 8.7 5.9 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.3
PCE inflation 1.3 to 1.7 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 1.0 to 2.0 0.7 to 2.2 0.6 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0
November projection 1.1 to 1.7 1.1 to 1.8 1.2 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 0.9 to 2.2 0.6 to 2.2 0.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0
Core PCE inflation3 1.0 to 1.3 1.0 to 1.5 1.2 to 2.0   0.7 to 1.8 0.6 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.0  
November projection 0.9 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.6 1.1 to 2.0   0.7 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.0 0.5 to 2.0  

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The November projections were made in conjunction with the FOMC meeting on November 2-3, 2010.

1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.  Return to table

2. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.  Return to table

3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.  Return to table



Table 1a
Economic Projections for the First Half of 2011*
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges
  Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP 3.3 to 3.7 3.1 to 4.0
PCE Inflation 1.3 to 1.8 0.9 to 2.0
Core PCE Inflation 0.9 to 1.2 0.7 to 1.6
Participants' Projections
Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 4.0 1.4 0.9
2 3.4 0.9 0.8
3 3.6 1.3 1.0
4 3.7 1.6 1.0
5 3.5 1.8 1.2
6 3.6 1.8 1.6
7 3.7 1.6 1.0
8 3.9 2.0 1.1
9 3.1 1.8 1.2
10 3.7 1.5 0.9
11 3.5 1.3 1.0
12 3.5 1.0 1.0
13 3.1 1.1 1.0
14 3.6 1.9 0.9
15 3.5 2.0 1.0
16 3.3 1.5 1.2
17 4.0 1.4 0.9
18 3.3 1.3 0.7

* Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text



Table 1b
Economic Projections for the Second Half of 2011*
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges
Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP 3.5 to 4.1 3.3 to 4.4
PCE Inflation 1.1 to 1.9 0.7 to 2.2
Core PCE Inflation 1.0 to 1.4 0.7 to 2.0
Participants' Projections
Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 4.4 1.2 1.1
2 3.6 1.1 1.0
3 3.8 1.3 1.0
4 3.9 1.0 1.0
5 3.5 2.2 2.0
6 3.6 2.2 2.0
7 3.9 1.0 1.0
8 3.9 1.4 1.3
9 3.3 1.4 1.4
10 4.3 1.1 0.9
11 3.9 1.3 1.0
12 3.3 1.6 1.0
13 3.5 1.5 1.0
14 4.4 1.5 1.1
15 3.5 2.0 2.0
16 3.3 1.9 1.2
17 3.6 1.8 1.1
18 4.1 0.7 0.7

* Projections for the second half of 2011 implied by participants' January projections for the first half of 2011 and for 2011 as a whole. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text



Table 2
January Economic Projections
(in percent)

Projection Year Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
 
1 2011 4.2 8.6 1.3 1.0
2 2011 3.5 8.9 1.0 0.9
3 2011 3.7 8.9 1.3 1.0
4 2011 3.8 8.9 1.3 1.0
5 2011 3.5 9.0 2.0 1.6
6 2011 3.6 8.4 2.0 1.8
7 2011 3.8 8.9 1.3 1.0
8 2011 3.9 9.0 1.7 1.2
9 2011 3.2 8.9 1.6 1.3
10 2011 4.0 8.8 1.3 0.9
11 2011 3.7 8.9 1.3 1.0
12 2011 3.4 9.0 1.3 1.0
13 2011 3.3 9.0 1.3 1.0
14 2011 4.0 8.6 1.7 1.0
15 2011 3.5 9.0 2.0 1.5
16 2011 3.3 9.0 1.7 1.2
17 2011 3.8 8.8 1.6 1.0
18 2011 3.7 8.9 1.0 0.7
 
1 2012 4.4 7.5 1.3 1.2
2 2012 3.7 8.0 1.3 1.3
3 2012 4.2 8.0 1.4 1.1
4 2012 4.4 7.8 1.0 1.0
5 2012 4.0 8.1 2.0 2.0
6 2012 3.4 7.2 2.2 2.0
7 2012 4.4 7.8 1.1 1.1
8 2012 4.0 8.0 1.5 1.4
9 2012 3.4 8.1 1.5 1.5
10 2012 4.5 7.6 1.0 1.0
11 2012 3.8 8.0 1.5 1.4
12 2012 3.5 8.3 0.9 0.9
13 2012 4.3 7.9 1.5 1.1
14 2012 4.0 7.4 1.8 1.5
15 2012 4.4 8.0 2.0 2.0
16 2012 3.4 8.4 1.9 1.5
17 2012 4.0 7.8 1.5 1.0
18 2012 4.2 7.7 0.7 0.6
 
1 2013 4.0 6.6 1.4 1.4
2 2013 3.5 7.3 1.7 1.6
3 2013 4.5 7.0 1.4 1.2
4 2013 4.6 7.0 1.2 1.2
5 2013 4.0 7.2 2.0 2.0
6 2013 3.0 6.5 2.0 2.0
7 2013 4.6 7.0 1.2 1.2
8 2013 4.0 7.0 1.5 1.4
9 2013 3.7 7.2 1.8 1.8
10 2013 4.3 6.8 1.1 1.1
11 2013 3.8 7.0 1.6 1.6
12 2013 4.0 7.9 1.0 1.0
13 2013 4.6 7.0 1.5 1.3
14 2013 5.0 6.0 2.0 2.0
15 2013 3.8 7.0 1.5 1.5
16 2013 3.1 7.9 2.0 2.0
17 2013 4.0 6.8 1.5 1.2
18 2013 4.4 6.9 0.6 0.6
 
1 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0  
2 LR 2.6 6.0 2.0  
3 LR 2.5 5.4 2.0  
4 LR 2.8 5.0 2.0  
5 LR 3.0 5.0 2.0  
6 LR 2.8 5.5 1.7  
7 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0  
8 LR 2.5 6.0 1.5  
9 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0  
10 LR 2.5 5.3 2.0  
11 LR 2.5 5.5 1.8  
12 LR 3.0 5.2 1.6  
13 LR 2.5 5.0 2.0  
14 LR 2.4 5.0 2.0  
15 LR 2.8 6.0 1.5  
16 LR 2.7 6.2 1.9  
17 LR 2.7 5.3 1.5  
18 LR 2.5 5.3 2.0  


Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Change in real GDP
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer run
Actual 2.4 2.3 -2.8 0.2 2.8 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.2 4.5 5.0 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.9 4.4 4.6 2.8
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.4 3.5 3.7 2.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.4

Unemployment rate
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer run
Actual 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 9.6 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 9.0 8.4 7.9 6.2
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.0 8.1 7.2 6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.8 7.6 6.8 5.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.4 7.2 6.0 5.0

PCE inflation
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer run
Actual 1.9 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.6
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Actual 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 0.8 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.8 2.0 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.3 1.5 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.0 1.0 1.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 0.7 0.6 0.6

Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. The data for the change in real GDP, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation shown for 2010 incorporate the advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2010, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on January 28, 2011. This information was not available to FOMC meeting participants at the time of their meeting.



Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 1 3 14
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 1 14 3
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2(a) A A A A A A A C A B A A B A B A A A
2(b) B B B B A A B B B B A B B C B B B B


Uncertainty and Risks - Unemployment Rate

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 1 4 13
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 1 14 3
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2(a) A A A A A B A C A B A A B A B A A A
2(b) A B B A C B B B B B B B B A B B B B


Uncertainty and Risks - PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 1 3 14
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 2 13 3
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2(a) A A B A A A A C A B A A A A B A A A
2(b) B B B A B A B B B B A B B C B B B C


Uncertainty and Risks - Core PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
Number of participants 1 4 13
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
Number of participants 2 13 3
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2(a) A A B A A A A C A B A A B A B A A A
2(b) B B B A B A B B B B A B B C B B B C


Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013 Longer run
January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections
2.4 - 2.5 0 1 0 0 0 0 10 11
2.6 - 2.7 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 1
2.8 - 2.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4
3.0 - 3.1 0 3 0 0 2 2 2 2
3.2 - 3.3 3 1 0 2 0 1 0 0
3.4 - 3.5 4 6 4 0 1 1 0 0
3.6 - 3.7 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0
3.8 - 3.9 4 0 1 0 2 3 0 0
4.0 - 4.1 2 1 4 4 5 2 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 1 0 3 3 1 1 0 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 5 4 2 3 0 0
4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 3 3 4 0 0
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Tealbook
percent range		 3.8 - 3.9 3.6 - 3.7 4.4 - 4.5 4.6 - 4.7 4.6 - 4.7 4.6 - 4.7    

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013 Longer run
January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0
7.0 - 7.1 0 0 0 2 7 7 0 0
7.2 - 7.3 0 0 1 1 3 2 0 0
7.4 - 7.5 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 0 4 2 2 2 0 0
8.0 - 8.1 0 0 7 7 0 0 0 0
8.2 - 8.3 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0
8.6 - 8.7 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
8.8 - 8.9 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
9.0 - 9.1 6 12 0 0 0 0 0 0
9.2 - 9.3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tealbook
percent range		 8.8 - 8.9 9.0 - 9.1 7.8 - 7.9 7.8 - 7.9 7.0 - 7.1 7.0 - 7.1    

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013 Longer run
January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections
0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0.5 - 0.6 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
0.7 - 0.8 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
0.9 - 1.0 2 3 3 1 1 0 0 0
1.1 - 1.2 0 5 1 5 3 3 0 0
1.3 - 1.4 8 5 3 2 2 4 0 0
1.5 - 1.6 2 1 5 5 5 4 4 4
1.7 - 1.8 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 2
1.9 - 2.0 3 1 3 2 4 5 12 12
2.1 - 2.2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Tealbook
percent range		 1.3 - 1.4 1.1 - 1.2 0.9 - 1.0 1.1 - 1.2 1.1 - 1.2 1.1 - 1.2    

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2011-13

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013
January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections		 January
projections		 November
projections
0.5 - 0.6 0 0 1 1 1 1
0.7 - 0.8 1 3 0 0 0 0
0.9 - 1.0 11 6 4 5 1 1
1.1 - 1.2 2 4 4 3 5 5
1.3 - 1.4 1 1 3 2 3 3
1.5 - 1.6 2 1 3 4 3 2
1.7 - 1.8 1 2 0 1 1 1
1.9 - 2.0 0 1 3 2 4 5
Tealbook
percent range		 0.9 - 1.0 0.9 - 1.0 0.9 - 1.0 0.9 - 1.0 1.1 - 1.2 1.1 - 1.2

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



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