FRB: FOMC meeting -- January 25-26, 2011 presentation materials

Accessible Version

Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
January 25-26, 2011 Presentation Materials

Pages 231 to 282 of the Transcript

Appendix 1: Materials used by Messrs. Fallick and Faberman, and Ms. Şahin

Material for
FOMC Briefing on Structural Unemployment

Bruce Fallick, Jason Faberman, and Aysegul Sahin
January 25, 2011

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Causes for Concern

Top panel
Categories of Unemployment

Structural or frictional unemployment reflects difficulties in matching available workers to available jobs.
- Demographics.
- The technology of job search and worker screening.
- Imbalances between the characteristics or locations of potential workers and vacant jobs.
Cyclical unemployment is due to a shortfall in aggregate economic activity.
Inflation is most sensitive to cyclical unemployment.
The line between these categories is often blurry.

Middle-left panel
Payroll Employment

Thousands
Period	Financial Activities	Residential Construction
January 2000	7674	ND
February 2000	7674	ND
March 2000	7672	ND
April 2000	7667	ND
May 2000	7666	ND
June 2000	7671	ND
July 2000	7669	ND
August 2000	7680	ND
September 2000	7699	ND
October 2000	7712	ND
November 2000	7726	ND
December 2000	7743	ND
January 2001	7755	2601.0
February 2001	7776	2612.4
March 2001	7795	2619.2
April 2001	7800	2615.7
May 2001	7809	2631.5
June 2001	7811	2636.3
July 2001	7799	2637.5
August 2001	7824	2639.9
September 2001	7826	2639.9
October 2001	7829	2641.4
November 2001	7843	2644.1
December 2001	7835	2649.0
January 2002	7840	2644.7
February 2002	7829	2656.1
March 2002	7825	2673.1
April 2002	7829	2670.0
May 2002	7824	2675.1
June 2002	7827	2675.9
July 2002	7830	2683.1
August 2002	7838	2699.5
September 2002	7858	2713.9
October 2002	7878	2716.8
November 2002	7890	2741.5
December 2002	7905	2736.7
January 2003	7913	2737.6
February 2003	7929	2734.1
March 2003	7942	2743.8
April 2003	7971	2762.7
May 2003	7988	2772.3
June 2003	7985	2795.4
July 2003	8001	2807.7
August 2003	8005	2827.2
September 2003	8008	2844.0
October 2003	7995	2860.8
November 2003	7990	2882.7
December 2003	7983	2897.5
January 2004	7984	2921.3
February 2004	7989	2929.8
March 2004	7998	2954.5
April 2004	8011	2964.7
May 2004	8034	2989.3
June 2004	8039	3008.9
July 2004	8027	3029.2
August 2004	8036	3047.6
September 2004	8055	3065.0
October 2004	8053	3090.2
November 2004	8060	3103.1
December 2004	8083	3127.7
January 2005	8091	3116.9
February 2005	8097	3156.8
March 2005	8095	3176.5
April 2005	8103	3208.4
May 2005	8108	3236.2
June 2005	8127	3252.2
July 2005	8148	3267.6
August 2005	8172	3284.2
September 2005	8182	3310.9
October 2005	8218	3343.9
November 2005	8243	3370.9
December 2005	8250	3395.3
January 2006	8270	3422.0
February 2006	8296	3446.5
March 2006	8316	3445.5
April 2006	8339	3450.5
May 2006	8340	3442.8
June 2006	8325	3424.5
July 2006	8326	3408.9
August 2006	8333	3414.5
September 2006	8350	3385.5
October 2006	8343	3347.0
November 2006	8348	3341.2
December 2006	8352	3335.2
January 2007	8346	3322.6
February 2007	8348	3285.7
March 2007	8338	3303.5
April 2007	8320	3292.5
May 2007	8326	3284.2
June 2007	8319	3277.3
July 2007	8322	3262.2
August 2007	8295	3217.7
September 2007	8268	3175.9
October 2007	8257	3134.4
November 2007	8234	3096.1
December 2007	8227	3061.9
January 2008	8218	3029.2
February 2008	8208	2997.2
March 2008	8208	2968.5
April 2008	8202	2930.9
May 2008	8193	2881.7
June 2008	8176	2844.4
July 2008	8161	2805.4
August 2008	8143	2765.4
September 2008	8110	2729.8
October 2008	8073	2676.2
November 2008	8029	2594.5
December 2008	8000	2551.5
January 2009	7945	2480.6
February 2009	7894	2424.0
March 2009	7852	2361.9
April 2009	7805	2305.4
May 2009	7773	2288.8
June 2009	7742	2251.9
July 2009	7719	2224.2
August 2009	7695	2202.8
September 2009	7683	2185.5
October 2009	7664	2172.0
November 2009	7666	2169.2
December 2009	7657	2167.1
January 2010	7635	2150.3
February 2010	7628	2139.6
March 2010	7609	2133.2
April 2010	7611	2132.0
May 2010	7602	2126.6
June 2010	7591	2119.1
July 2010	7581	2104.1
August 2010	7578	2099.1
September 2010	7582	2096.9
October 2010	7585	2088.6
November 2010	7581	2088.7
December 2010	7585	2086.9

Middle-right panel
Dispersion in Major Industry Employment Change

Percent
Period	Idiosyncratic dispersion	Cyclical dispersion
1970:Q1	-0.37	1.77
1970:Q2	-0.94	5.62
1970:Q3	-0.35	8.55
1970:Q4	3.52	12.66
1971:Q1	1.76	9.45
1971:Q2	3.15	4.48
1971:Q3	4.44	1.77
1971:Q4	0.74	0.65
1972:Q1	1.62	-0.25
1972:Q2	-0.13	0.09
1972:Q3	-0.59	-0.12
1972:Q4	1.15	-1.00
1973:Q1	0.52	0.03
1973:Q2	0.22	0.10
1973:Q3	-0.66	1.47
1973:Q4	-1.07	0.59
1974:Q1	-1.19	0.12
1974:Q2	-1.12	1.09
1974:Q3	-0.31	3.68
1974:Q4	-0.42	10.12
1975:Q1	5.28	21.61
1975:Q2	7.27	27.68
1975:Q3	6.94	21.58
1975:Q4	2.95	10.69
1976:Q1	0.69	0.26
1976:Q2	-0.35	0.33
1976:Q3	0.51	-0.64
1976:Q4	0.79	-1.05
1977:Q1	-0.12	-0.11
1977:Q2	-0.33	0.48
1977:Q3	-0.16	0.66
1977:Q4	0.48	0.29
1978:Q1	0.04	-0.70
1978:Q2	0.92	-0.74
1978:Q3	1.83	-0.52
1978:Q4	1.62	-0.25
1979:Q1	2.08	-0.49
1979:Q2	0.85	-0.04
1979:Q3	-0.26	0.20
1979:Q4	-0.24	0.44
1980:Q1	0.18	1.25
1980:Q2	0.30	6.94
1980:Q3	1.05	9.61
1980:Q4	-0.01	6.94
1981:Q1	0.81	4.75
1981:Q2	1.80	-0.19
1981:Q3	4.75	-0.86
1981:Q4	2.65	1.65
1982:Q1	1.62	3.63
1982:Q2	1.75	7.79
1982:Q3	1.96	10.09
1982:Q4	3.17	11.81
1983:Q1	2.89	9.33
1983:Q2	2.62	4.95
1983:Q3	1.52	1.14
1983:Q4	0.62	2.05
1984:Q1	1.17	3.55
1984:Q2	1.78	3.55
1984:Q3	2.00	1.24
1984:Q4	3.72	-1.72
1985:Q1	4.60	-2.84
1985:Q2	5.85	-2.21
1985:Q3	6.82	-1.76
1985:Q4	6.65	-1.63
1986:Q1	6.71	-2.21
1986:Q2	7.60	-2.02
1986:Q3	7.35	-1.43
1986:Q4	5.85	-0.56
1987:Q1	4.32	0.15
1987:Q2	1.46	0.46
1987:Q3	0.10	0.30
1987:Q4	-0.25	-0.23
1988:Q1	0.07	-0.54
1988:Q2	0.74	-1.19
1988:Q3	1.53	-1.19
1988:Q4	2.32	-1.30
1989:Q1	2.07	-1.02
1989:Q2	2.11	-0.93
1989:Q3	2.39	-1.44
1989:Q4	1.34	-0.47
1990:Q1	1.37	-0.22
1990:Q2	0.75	0.76
1990:Q3	0.84	1.36
1990:Q4	-0.26	3.05
1991:Q1	0.73	6.56
1991:Q2	0.68	6.89
1991:Q3	-0.22	6.96
1991:Q4	0.09	5.57
1992:Q1	-0.04	3.56
1992:Q2	0.57	1.69
1992:Q3	2.31	-0.19
1992:Q4	2.26	-1.01
1993:Q1	1.53	-0.93
1993:Q2	1.78	-0.85
1993:Q3	1.15	-0.15
1993:Q4	0.96	0.05
1994:Q1	0.55	0.13
1994:Q2	0.73	0.21
1994:Q3	0.92	0.29
1994:Q4	1.16	0.21
1995:Q1	2.03	0.13
1995:Q2	1.60	-0.10
1995:Q3	1.26	-0.08
1995:Q4	0.92	-0.16
1996:Q1	0.42	-0.04
1996:Q2	0.97	0.07
1996:Q3	1.12	-0.05
1996:Q4	1.12	-0.07
1997:Q1	1.50	-0.10
1997:Q2	1.91	-0.12
1997:Q3	1.89	-0.14
1997:Q4	1.55	0.00
1998:Q1	1.25	0.18
1998:Q2	0.72	0.17
1998:Q3	1.03	0.06
1998:Q4	1.93	0.09
1999:Q1	3.20	-0.43
1999:Q2	4.04	-0.62
1999:Q3	3.30	-0.39
1999:Q4	3.14	-0.38
2000:Q1	2.30	-0.24
2000:Q2	1.70	-0.52
2000:Q3	0.74	-0.35
2000:Q4	0.15	-0.22
2001:Q1	-0.07	0.41
2001:Q2	0.69	1.51
2001:Q3	2.24	4.30
2001:Q4	5.05	7.23
2002:Q1	6.61	7.92
2002:Q2	4.56	6.52
2002:Q3	3.46	4.06
2002:Q4	1.70	2.98
2003:Q1	1.37	2.35
2003:Q2	1.70	2.18
2003:Q3	1.98	1.57
2003:Q4	1.96	0.38
2004:Q1	1.97	-0.64
2004:Q2	1.44	-0.75
2004:Q3	0.59	-0.40
2004:Q4	0.47	-0.22
2005:Q1	0.53	-0.17
2005:Q2	1.01	-0.13
2005:Q3	1.44	-0.27
2005:Q4	1.30	-0.06
2006:Q1	1.64	0.24
2006:Q2	1.33	0.04
2006:Q3	0.82	0.00
2006:Q4	0.52	-0.15
2007:Q1	-0.09	0.38
2007:Q2	0.03	0.43
2007:Q3	-0.06	0.73
2007:Q4	0.33	0.47
2008:Q1	0.81	0.39
2008:Q2	1.30	1.14
2008:Q3	0.96	3.32
2008:Q4	0.56	7.51
2009:Q1	1.72	14.75
2009:Q2	1.61	21.32
2009:Q3	1.96	21.26
2009:Q4	2.39	15.92
2010:Q1	1.63	6.90
2010:Q2	1.61	1.23
2010:Q3	1.58	-0.46
2010:Q4	1.41	-0.16

Bottom-left panel
Percent of Mortgages with Negative Equity

Period	Percent
2006	0.92
2007	3.78
2008	13.64
2009	20.71
2010	19.75

Note. Negative equity percentage likely understated because of incomplete data on junior liens.

Bottom-right panel
Permanent Job Losers

Percent of employment
Period	Stock	Rate
January 1970	1.01	ND
February 1970	1.12	ND
March 1970	1.18	ND
April 1970	1.25	ND
May 1970	1.47	ND
June 1970	1.42	ND
July 1970	1.43	ND
August 1970	1.62	ND
September 1970	1.59	ND
October 1970	1.71	ND
November 1970	1.83	ND
December 1970	1.95	ND
January 1971	1.98	ND
February 1971	2.01	ND
March 1971	1.92	ND
April 1971	2.00	ND
May 1971	2.06	ND
June 1971	2.04	ND
July 1971	2.09	ND
August 1971	2.08	ND
September 1971	1.92	ND
October 1971	1.93	ND
November 1971	2.04	ND
December 1971	1.95	ND
January 1972	1.95	ND
February 1972	1.86	ND
March 1972	1.90	ND
April 1972	1.80	ND
May 1972	2.00	ND
June 1972	1.87	ND
July 1972	1.86	ND
August 1972	2.00	ND
September 1972	1.89	ND
October 1972	1.81	ND
November 1972	1.68	ND
December 1972	1.68	ND
January 1973	1.57	ND
February 1973	1.48	ND
March 1973	1.43	ND
April 1973	1.42	ND
May 1973	1.31	ND
June 1973	1.49	ND
July 1973	1.41	ND
August 1973	1.38	ND
September 1973	1.47	ND
October 1973	1.32	ND
November 1973	1.42	ND
December 1973	1.49	ND
January 1974	1.63	ND
February 1974	1.54	ND
March 1974	1.52	ND
April 1974	1.56	ND
May 1974	1.55	ND
June 1974	1.56	ND
July 1974	1.62	ND
August 1974	1.67	ND
September 1974	1.81	ND
October 1974	1.86	ND
November 1974	2.12	ND
December 1974	2.32	ND
January 1975	2.87	ND
February 1975	2.85	ND
March 1975	3.01	ND
April 1975	3.12	ND
May 1975	3.35	ND
June 1975	3.27	ND
July 1975	3.36	ND
August 1975	3.32	ND
September 1975	3.42	ND
October 1975	3.20	ND
November 1975	3.27	ND
December 1975	3.06	ND
January 1976	3.13	ND
February 1976	2.92	ND
March 1976	2.99	ND
April 1976	2.91	ND
May 1976	2.85	ND
June 1976	3.01	0.66
July 1976	2.99	0.78
August 1976	2.91	0.70
September 1976	2.84	0.76
October 1976	2.93	0.74
November 1976	2.97	0.73
December 1976	2.97	0.72
January 1977	2.80	0.76
February 1977	2.79	0.70
March 1977	2.66	0.74
April 1977	2.54	0.73
May 1977	2.50	0.68
June 1977	2.43	0.72
July 1977	2.38	0.69
August 1977	2.44	0.71
September 1977	2.43	0.69
October 1977	2.31	0.65
November 1977	2.37	0.68
December 1977	2.19	0.65
January 1978	2.17	0.65
February 1978	2.07	0.69
March 1978	2.07	0.67
April 1978	2.06	0.68
May 1978	2.00	0.68
June 1978	1.85	0.62
July 1978	1.95	0.67
August 1978	1.87	0.62
September 1978	1.78	0.59
October 1978	1.91	0.66
November 1978	1.74	0.62
December 1978	1.85	0.66
January 1979	1.81	0.60
February 1979	1.84	0.62
March 1979	1.80	0.60
April 1979	1.77	0.61
May 1979	1.69	0.58
June 1979	1.62	0.62
July 1979	1.81	0.59
August 1979	1.82	0.66
September 1979	1.83	0.60
October 1979	1.93	0.64
November 1979	1.85	0.65
December 1979	1.88	0.63
January 1980	2.07	0.69
February 1980	2.00	0.65
March 1980	2.06	0.68
April 1980	2.27	0.73
May 1980	2.44	0.83
June 1980	2.48	0.75
July 1980	2.73	0.80
August 1980	2.71	0.83
September 1980	2.70	0.78
October 1980	2.67	0.74
November 1980	2.84	0.75
December 1980	2.77	0.75
January 1981	2.72	0.72
February 1981	2.78	0.77
March 1981	2.63	0.78
April 1981	2.60	0.76
May 1981	2.68	0.81
June 1981	2.80	0.86
July 1981	2.65	0.77
August 1981	2.84	0.79
September 1981	2.97	0.86
October 1981	2.89	0.85
November 1981	3.06	0.90
December 1981	3.29	0.96
January 1982	3.48	1.01
February 1982	3.48	0.99
March 1982	3.77	1.03
April 1982	3.91	0.99
May 1982	3.98	1.03
June 1982	4.12	1.07
July 1982	4.25	1.00
August 1982	4.18	1.03
September 1982	4.37	1.12
October 1982	4.83	1.20
November 1982	4.93	1.11
December 1982	4.83	1.03
January 1983	4.73	0.91
February 1983	4.85	1.01
March 1983	4.90	0.97
April 1983	4.78	0.95
May 1983	4.84	0.95
June 1983	4.68	0.96
July 1983	4.42	0.98
August 1983	4.40	0.95
September 1983	4.25	1.06
October 1983	4.05	0.96
November 1983	3.81	0.85
December 1983	3.66	0.89
January 1984	3.49	0.87
February 1984	3.37	0.87
March 1984	3.25	0.88
April 1984	3.24	0.85
May 1984	2.99	0.71
June 1984	2.91	0.72
July 1984	3.13	0.90
August 1984	2.90	0.82
September 1984	2.90	0.82
October 1984	2.96	0.83
November 1984	2.93	0.83
December 1984	2.97	0.85
January 1985	2.91	0.87
February 1985	2.84	0.82
March 1985	2.80	0.84
April 1985	2.79	0.82
May 1985	2.66	0.71
June 1985	2.80	0.83
July 1985	2.96	0.87
August 1985	2.81	0.87
September 1985	2.72	0.79
October 1985	2.70	0.78
November 1985	2.72	0.79
December 1985	2.65	0.76
January 1986	2.44	0.73
February 1986	2.76	0.81
March 1986	2.81	0.79
April 1986	2.69	0.82
May 1986	2.81	0.84
June 1986	2.93	0.82
July 1986	2.72	0.78
August 1986	2.59	0.76
September 1986	2.73	0.79
October 1986	2.67	0.78
November 1986	2.60	0.73
December 1986	2.54	0.78
January 1987	2.56	0.77
February 1987	2.54	0.74
March 1987	2.53	0.75
April 1987	2.44	0.71
May 1987	2.37	0.69
June 1987	2.40	0.63
July 1987	2.31	0.69
August 1987	2.22	0.69
September 1987	2.20	0.64
October 1987	2.23	0.68
November 1987	2.12	0.66
December 1987	2.03	0.64
January 1988	2.00	0.61
February 1988	2.01	0.59
March 1988	1.99	0.56
April 1988	1.81	0.61
May 1988	2.11	0.72
June 1988	1.96	0.63
July 1988	1.95	0.60
August 1988	1.93	0.60
September 1988	1.95	0.65
October 1988	1.86	0.60
November 1988	1.89	0.64
December 1988	1.92	0.64
January 1989	1.93	0.66
February 1989	1.79	0.67
March 1989	1.76	0.60
April 1989	1.79	0.65
May 1989	1.67	0.59
June 1989	1.70	0.61
July 1989	1.79	0.60
August 1989	1.78	0.58
September 1989	1.78	0.60
October 1989	1.90	0.66
November 1989	1.83	0.62
December 1989	1.83	0.63
January 1990	1.80	0.56
February 1990	1.78	0.64
March 1990	1.81	0.65
April 1990	1.85	0.67
May 1990	1.84	0.64
June 1990	1.90	0.65
July 1990	1.93	0.66
August 1990	2.08	0.76
September 1990	2.08	0.64
October 1990	2.21	0.69
November 1990	2.33	0.81
December 1990	2.32	0.70
January 1991	2.58	0.77
February 1991	2.56	0.74
March 1991	2.81	0.78
April 1991	2.74	0.75
May 1991	2.82	0.79
June 1991	2.91	0.78
July 1991	3.01	0.78
August 1991	2.95	0.85
September 1991	3.12	0.84
October 1991	3.03	0.81
November 1991	3.08	0.82
December 1991	3.23	0.87
January 1992	3.23	0.75
February 1992	3.47	0.82
March 1992	3.51	0.85
April 1992	3.48	0.78
May 1992	3.69	0.87
June 1992	3.65	0.85
July 1992	3.58	0.79
August 1992	3.53	0.78
September 1992	3.40	0.80
October 1992	3.53	0.84
November 1992	3.42	0.75
December 1992	3.31	0.74
January 1993	3.33	0.75
February 1993	3.19	0.75
March 1993	3.23	0.74
April 1993	3.28	0.88
May 1993	3.05	0.68
June 1993	3.18	0.70
July 1993	3.13	0.73
August 1993	3.06	0.71
September 1993	2.96	0.68
October 1993	2.92	0.69
November 1993	2.88	0.65
December 1993	2.81	0.75
January 1994	2.62	0.71
February 1994	2.56	0.55
March 1994	2.53	0.62
April 1994	2.38	0.65
May 1994	2.24	0.51
June 1994	2.28	0.63
July 1994	2.29	0.65
August 1994	2.18	0.63
September 1994	2.23	0.61
October 1994	2.18	0.55
November 1994	2.12	0.58
December 1994	1.99	0.57
January 1995	2.03	0.59
February 1995	1.89	0.47
March 1995	1.89	0.60
April 1995	1.95	0.54
May 1995	2.07	0.59
June 1995	1.89	0.59
July 1995	1.92	0.56
August 1995	1.92	0.57
September 1995	2.01	0.62
October 1995	1.99	0.59
November 1995	1.98	0.61
December 1995	1.97	0.55
January 1996	1.95	0.54
February 1996	1.98	0.59
March 1996	1.96	0.50
April 1996	2.05	0.57
May 1996	1.86	0.58
June 1996	1.86	0.53
July 1996	1.86	0.53
August 1996	1.68	0.49
September 1996	1.74	0.47
October 1996	1.73	0.47
November 1996	1.82	0.56
December 1996	1.72	0.52
January 1997	1.77	0.56
February 1997	1.72	0.52
March 1997	1.68	0.50
April 1997	1.61	0.45
May 1997	1.58	0.48
June 1997	1.68	0.56
July 1997	1.56	0.39
August 1997	1.64	0.49
September 1997	1.62	0.49
October 1997	1.48	0.50
November 1997	1.59	0.48
December 1997	1.58	0.50
January 1998	1.52	0.51
February 1998	1.52	0.52
March 1998	1.51	0.53
April 1998	1.49	0.55
May 1998	1.53	0.53
June 1998	1.50	0.52
July 1998	1.44	0.52
August 1998	1.46	0.51
September 1998	1.47	0.51
October 1998	1.48	0.53
November 1998	1.48	0.49
December 1998	1.48	0.58
January 1999	1.39	0.47
February 1999	1.41	0.50
March 1999	1.32	0.50
April 1999	1.38	0.55
May 1999	1.38	0.50
June 1999	1.33	0.51
July 1999	1.38	0.51
August 1999	1.32	0.53
September 1999	1.25	0.52
October 1999	1.29	0.53
November 1999	1.24	0.43
December 1999	1.22	0.53
January 2000	1.30	0.51
February 2000	1.32	0.48
March 2000	1.25	0.52
April 2000	1.16	0.43
May 2000	1.16	0.48
June 2000	1.07	0.45
July 2000	1.18	0.49
August 2000	1.26	0.48
September 2000	1.21	0.52
October 2000	1.20	0.44
November 2000	1.18	0.44
December 2000	1.19	0.43
January 2001	1.29	0.45
February 2001	1.41	0.60
March 2001	1.48	0.53
April 2001	1.49	0.62
May 2001	1.53	0.63
June 2001	1.67	0.66
July 2001	1.72	0.53
August 2001	1.77	0.64
September 2001	1.80	0.68
October 2001	2.20	0.74
November 2001	2.41	0.77
December 2001	2.45	0.71
January 2002	2.46	0.77
February 2002	2.43	0.74
March 2002	2.46	0.71
April 2002	2.56	0.66
May 2002	2.58	0.64
June 2002	2.61	0.66
July 2002	2.52	0.62
August 2002	2.50	0.68
September 2002	2.54	0.66
October 2002	2.62	0.65
November 2002	2.68	0.71
December 2002	2.68	0.67
January 2003	2.63	0.69
February 2003	2.66	0.67
March 2003	2.63	0.66
April 2003	2.67	0.67
May 2003	2.80	0.70
June 2003	2.78	0.69
July 2003	2.79	0.67
August 2003	2.83	0.73
September 2003	2.77	0.62
October 2003	2.70	0.63
November 2003	2.60	0.59
December 2003	2.50	0.63
January 2004	2.42	0.59
February 2004	2.33	0.56
March 2004	2.56	0.60
April 2004	2.41	0.62
May 2004	2.33	0.62
June 2004	2.24	0.58
July 2004	2.27	0.63
August 2004	2.15	0.60
September 2004	2.22	0.65
October 2004	2.24	0.63
November 2004	2.22	0.60
December 2004	2.19	0.62
January 2005	2.18	0.57
February 2005	2.10	0.59
March 2005	2.01	0.48
April 2005	1.99	0.57
May 2005	1.93	0.55
June 2005	1.88	0.56
July 2005	1.86	0.57
August 2005	1.79	0.53
September 2005	1.91	0.59
October 2005	1.83	0.58
November 2005	1.84	0.51
December 2005	1.79	0.51
January 2006	1.74	0.53
February 2006	1.73	0.49
March 2006	1.73	0.56
April 2006	1.82	0.56
May 2006	1.76	0.53
June 2006	1.63	0.56
July 2006	1.65	0.53
August 2006	1.65	0.51
September 2006	1.62	0.50
October 2006	1.50	0.46
November 2006	1.57	0.49
December 2006	1.56	0.57
January 2007	1.63	0.50
February 2007	1.61	0.52
March 2007	1.58	0.46
April 2007	1.61	0.46
May 2007	1.64	0.49
June 2007	1.71	0.52
July 2007	1.82	0.51
August 2007	1.83	0.57
September 2007	1.83	0.54
October 2007	1.83	0.53
November 2007	1.84	0.53
December 2007	1.99	0.58
January 2008	1.89	0.53
February 2008	1.98	0.58
March 2008	2.08	0.62
April 2008	2.02	0.53
May 2008	2.18	0.74
June 2008	2.26	0.61
July 2008	2.38	0.61
August 2008	2.55	0.73
September 2008	2.71	0.68
October 2008	3.05	0.81
November 2008	3.35	0.89
December 2008	3.60	0.82
January 2009	4.17	1.14
February 2009	4.61	0.95
March 2009	4.89	0.95
April 2009	5.13	0.96
May 2009	5.42	0.97
June 2009	5.58	0.89
July 2009	5.55	0.87
August 2009	5.76	0.82
September 2009	5.87	0.83
October 2009	6.05	0.90
November 2009	5.95	0.74
December 2009	5.91	0.82
January 2010	5.66	0.77
February 2010	5.73	0.68
March 2010	5.61	0.66
April 2010	5.65	0.72
May 2010	5.56	0.68
June 2010	5.53	0.73
July 2010	5.63	0.82
August 2010	5.59	0.72
September 2010	5.70	0.87
October 2010	5.59	0.70
November 2010	5.79	0.78
December 2010	5.40	0.65

Note. Rate includes job losers not on layoff, unemployed less than five weeks. Stock includes all job losers not on layoff.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 2
The Beveridge Curve

Top panel
Using Staff Composite Help Wanted Index

1973:Q4 to 2010:Q4
Period	Help wanted index divided by labor force	Unemployment rate
1973:Q4 to 1976:Q2
1973:Q4	4.52	4.77
1974:Q1	4.27	5.13
1974:Q2	4.28	5.20
1974:Q3	3.92	5.63
1974:Q4	3.21	6.60
1975:Q1	2.71	8.27
1975:Q2	2.70	8.87
1975:Q3	2.84	8.47
1975:Q4	2.96	8.30
1976:Q1	3.15	7.73
1976:Q2	3.23	7.57
1979:Q2 to 1983:Q4
1979:Q2	4.97	5.70
1979:Q3	4.93	5.87
1979:Q4	4.85	5.97
1980:Q1	4.49	6.30
1980:Q2	3.71	7.33
1980:Q3	3.71	7.67
1980:Q4	3.85	7.40
1981:Q1	3.76	7.43
1981:Q2	3.73	7.40
1981:Q3	3.63	7.40
1981:Q4	3.21	8.23
1982:Q1	2.97	8.83
1982:Q2	2.68	9.43
1982:Q3	2.35	9.90
1982:Q4	2.28	10.67
1983:Q1	2.40	10.37
1983:Q2	2.65	10.13
1983:Q3	2.94	9.37
1983:Q4	3.32	8.53
1990:Q1 to 1993:Q3
1990:Q1	3.73	5.30
1990:Q2	3.51	5.33
1990:Q3	3.32	5.70
1990:Q4	2.90	6.13
1991:Q1	2.59	6.60
1991:Q2	2.50	6.83
1991:Q3	2.44	6.87
1991:Q4	2.38	7.10
1992:Q1	2.43	7.37
1992:Q2	2.46	7.60
1992:Q3	2.44	7.63
1992:Q4	2.53	7.37
1993:Q1	2.61	7.13
1993:Q2	2.61	7.07
1993:Q3	2.73	6.80
2000:Q4 to 2004:Q2
2000:Q4	3.58	3.90
2001:Q1	3.39	4.23
2001:Q2	2.93	4.40
2001:Q3	2.69	4.83
2001:Q4	2.31	5.50
2002:Q1	2.40	5.70
2002:Q2	2.42	5.83
2002:Q3	2.30	5.73
2002:Q4	2.20	5.87
2003:Q1	2.29	5.87
2003:Q2	2.15	6.13
2003:Q3	2.25	6.13
2003:Q4	2.34	5.83
2004:Q1	2.50	5.70
2004:Q2	2.54	5.60
2007:Q1 to 2010:Q4
2007:Q1	3.14	4.50
2007:Q2	3.16	4.50
2007:Q3	2.96	4.67
2007:Q4	2.86	4.80
2008:Q1	2.87	4.97
2008:Q2	2.65	5.30
2008:Q3	2.55	6.03
2008:Q4	2.35	6.90
2009:Q1	1.86	8.20
2009:Q2	1.78	9.27
2009:Q3	1.79	9.67
2009:Q4	1.84	9.97
2010:Q1	2.10	9.70
2010:Q2	2.16	9.63
2010:Q3	2.20	9.57
2010:Q4	2.26	9.63

Bottom-left panel
Using JOLTS Job Openings

2001:Q1 to 2010:Q4
Period	Total nonfarm job openings divided by labor force	Unemployment rate	Fitted line	Fitted curve
2001 to 2007 (black circles on chart)
2001:Q1	3.47	4.23	3.91	4.11
2001:Q2	3.22	4.41	4.33	4.40
2001:Q3	2.98	4.82	4.73	4.71
2001:Q4	2.55	5.54	5.47	5.43
2002:Q1	2.52	5.70	5.53	5.49
2002:Q2	2.42	5.84	5.68	5.67
2002:Q3	2.38	5.73	5.77	5.78
2002:Q4	2.40	5.85	5.72	5.71
2003:Q1	2.34	5.87	5.83	5.86
2003:Q2	2.22	6.15	6.02	6.13
2003:Q3	2.19	6.10	6.09	6.22
2003:Q4	2.26	5.82	5.97	6.05
2004:Q1	2.39	5.68	5.74	5.74
2004:Q2	2.45	5.59	5.64	5.62
2004:Q3	2.59	5.43	5.41	5.35
2004:Q4	2.55	5.39	5.46	5.41
2005:Q1	2.63	5.28	5.33	5.27
2005:Q2	2.74	5.11	5.14	5.08
2005:Q3	2.80	4.97	5.04	4.98
2005:Q4	2.93	4.95	4.83	4.79
2006:Q1	2.94	4.72	4.80	4.77
2006:Q2	3.02	4.65	4.67	4.65
2006:Q3	2.94	4.64	4.81	4.77
2006:Q4	3.06	4.45	4.61	4.61
2007:Q1	3.02	4.51	4.67	4.65
2007:Q2	3.07	4.49	4.59	4.59
2007:Q3	2.98	4.67	4.73	4.71
2007:Q4	2.88	4.81	4.92	4.87
2008 to 2009 (red triangles on chart)
2008:Q1	2.69	4.96	5.23	5.16
2008:Q2	2.58	5.32	5.43	5.37
2008:Q3	2.35	6.04	5.81	5.83
2008:Q4	2.08	6.91	6.27	6.51
2009:Q1	1.79	8.21	6.76	7.44
2009:Q2	1.61	9.27	7.06	8.18
2009:Q3	1.59	9.67	7.10	8.27
2009:Q4	1.63	9.99	7.03	8.08
2010 (blue squares on chart)
2010:Q1	1.80	9.69	ND	ND
2010:Q2	1.97	9.65	ND	ND
2010:Q3	2.00	9.58	ND	ND
October and November	2.14	9.62	ND	ND

Bottom-right panel
Issues in Interpretation

Deviation is not a measure of an increase in structural unemployment.
The shape of the curve.
Increases in layoffs that occur during recessions.
Counter-clockwise loops.

Exhibit 3
Models Informing Tealbook Assumptions

Top-left panel
Job Matching

Percent
Period	Actual U-E Flows	Estimated
1980:Q1	27.79	28.34
1980:Q2	26.11	25.67
1980:Q3	25.86	25.31
1980:Q4	26.08	25.87
1981:Q1	25.09	25.65
1981:Q2	25.47	25.60
1981:Q3	24.34	25.39
1981:Q4	24.39	23.76
1982:Q1	22.96	22.75
1982:Q2	21.56	21.65
1982:Q3	21.03	20.51
1982:Q4	19.32	19.90
1983:Q1	19.37	20.38
1983:Q2	20.60	21.15
1983:Q3	21.88	22.29
1983:Q4	22.27	23.71
1984:Q1	24.32	24.84
1984:Q2	24.41	25.68
1984:Q3	24.37	25.83
1984:Q4	23.87	26.11
1985:Q1	26.32	26.15
1985:Q2	25.21	26.23
1985:Q3	25.23	26.32
1985:Q4	24.56	26.40
1986:Q1	26.14	26.34
1986:Q2	25.00	26.11
1986:Q3	24.82	26.35
1986:Q4	26.61	26.67
1987:Q1	26.39	26.96
1987:Q2	27.13	27.63
1987:Q3	27.69	28.24
1987:Q4	28.22	28.51
1988:Q1	27.22	28.59
1988:Q2	30.23	28.94
1988:Q3	29.45	28.86
1988:Q4	27.59	29.08
1989:Q1	30.17	29.13
1989:Q2	29.41	28.79
1989:Q3	29.81	28.39
1989:Q4	30.16	28.25
1990:Q1	30.57	28.21
1990:Q2	28.19	27.64
1990:Q3	26.72	26.70
1990:Q4	26.44	25.13
1991:Q1	25.44	23.81
1991:Q2	25.30	23.32
1991:Q3	24.88	23.10
1991:Q4	23.30	22.70
1992:Q1	23.60	22.59
1992:Q2	22.92	22.47
1992:Q3	22.68	22.38
1992:Q4	23.54	22.83
1993:Q1	23.04	23.26
1993:Q2	23.71	23.34
1993:Q3	23.77	23.92
1993:Q4	24.97	24.52
1994:Q1	25.59	25.08
1994:Q2	26.25	25.81
1994:Q3	27.39	26.17
1994:Q4	28.00	27.09
1995:Q1	28.42	27.11
1995:Q2	27.55	26.50
1995:Q3	28.10	26.74
1995:Q4	27.10	27.00
1996:Q1	27.46	26.89
1996:Q2	27.07	26.93
1996:Q3	28.65	27.26
1996:Q4	27.86	27.42
1997:Q1	29.36	27.81
1997:Q2	29.33	28.10
1997:Q3	28.62	28.55
1997:Q4	30.15	29.15
1998:Q1	29.91	29.50
1998:Q2	31.00	29.97
1998:Q3	30.93	29.62
1998:Q4	30.74	29.76
1999:Q1	31.89	30.57
1999:Q2	30.44	30.36
1999:Q3	31.80	30.24
1999:Q4	33.14	30.78
2000:Q1	33.02	31.36
2000:Q2	32.10	31.15
2000:Q3	32.44	30.59
2000:Q4	31.52	30.72
2001:Q1	31.05	29.57
2001:Q2	31.14	27.98
2001:Q3	29.43	26.62
2001:Q4	27.00	24.41
2002:Q1	26.93	24.47
2002:Q2	24.56	24.35
2002:Q3	25.45	24.14
2002:Q4	23.85	23.68
2003:Q1	23.82	23.95
2003:Q2	23.69	23.21
2003:Q3	23.21	23.55
2003:Q4	24.55	24.18
2004:Q1	24.03	24.82
2004:Q2	25.20	25.06
2004:Q3	25.76	25.18
2004:Q4	26.62	25.58
2005:Q1	25.97	26.73
2005:Q2	26.10	26.83
2005:Q3	26.56	26.97
2005:Q4	26.48	27.23
2006:Q1	26.99	28.04
2006:Q2	28.33	27.68
2006:Q3	29.01	27.60
2006:Q4	28.81	28.35
2007:Q1	29.62	28.43
2007:Q2	27.57	28.55
2007:Q3	27.25	27.69
2007:Q4	26.88	27.16
2008:Q1	26.34	26.92
2008:Q2	25.33	25.76
2008:Q3	23.75	24.51
2008:Q4	21.14	23.03
2009:Q1	18.72	20.41
2009:Q2	17.53	19.43
2009:Q3	17.03	19.22
2009:Q4	16.03	19.18
2010:Q1	16.95	20.12
2010:Q2	17.06	20.31
2010:Q3	16.74	20.45
2010:Q4	17.14	20.59

Note. Actual and estimated monthly flow rates from unemployment to employment. Estimated values are from a regression of the U-E flow rates on the log of the ratio of vacancies to unemployment.

Top-right panel
Contribution of Matching Efficiency to the Unemployment Rate

Period	Percentage points
1980:Q1	0.13
1980:Q2	-0.01
1980:Q3	-0.03
1980:Q4	0.03
1981:Q1	0.15
1981:Q2	0.08
1981:Q3	0.23
1981:Q4	-0.05
1982:Q1	0.02
1982:Q2	0.08
1982:Q3	-0.04
1982:Q4	0.21
1983:Q1	0.30
1983:Q2	0.18
1983:Q3	0.15
1983:Q4	0.33
1984:Q1	0.15
1984:Q2	0.27
1984:Q3	0.30
1984:Q4	0.43
1985:Q1	0.04
1985:Q2	0.23
1985:Q3	0.24
1985:Q4	0.36
1986:Q1	0.10
1986:Q2	0.25
1986:Q3	0.31
1986:Q4	0.08
1987:Q1	0.15
1987:Q2	0.14
1987:Q3	0.15
1987:Q4	0.11
1988:Q1	0.26
1988:Q2	-0.08
1988:Q3	0.00
1988:Q4	0.27
1989:Q1	-0.05
1989:Q2	0.00
1989:Q3	-0.09
1989:Q4	-0.15
1990:Q1	-0.34
1990:Q2	-0.01
1990:Q3	0.06
1990:Q4	-0.13
1991:Q1	-0.20
1991:Q2	-0.26
1991:Q3	-0.22
1991:Q4	-0.04
1992:Q1	-0.11
1992:Q2	-0.02
1992:Q3	0.01
1992:Q4	-0.06
1993:Q1	0.11
1993:Q2	0.00
1993:Q3	0.09
1993:Q4	0.00
1994:Q1	-0.04
1994:Q2	-0.02
1994:Q3	-0.13
1994:Q4	-0.08
1995:Q1	-0.13
1995:Q2	-0.10
1995:Q3	-0.14
1995:Q4	0.03
1996:Q1	-0.03
1996:Q2	0.02
1996:Q3	-0.14
1996:Q4	-0.02
1997:Q1	-0.16
1997:Q2	-0.11
1997:Q3	0.03
1997:Q4	-0.08
1998:Q1	-0.02
1998:Q2	-0.08
1998:Q3	-0.12
1998:Q4	-0.08
1999:Q1	-0.11
1999:Q2	0.02
1999:Q3	-0.14
1999:Q4	-0.21
2000:Q1	-0.15
2000:Q2	-0.08
2000:Q3	-0.17
2000:Q4	-0.06
2001:Q1	-0.14
2001:Q2	-0.33
2001:Q3	-0.32
2001:Q4	-0.34
2002:Q1	-0.32
2002:Q2	0.00
2002:Q3	-0.17
2002:Q4	0.00
2003:Q1	0.05
2003:Q2	-0.05
2003:Q3	0.08
2003:Q4	-0.03
2004:Q1	0.15
2004:Q2	0.00
2004:Q3	-0.06
2004:Q4	-0.12
2005:Q1	0.13
2005:Q2	0.12
2005:Q3	0.07
2005:Q4	0.12
2006:Q1	0.15
2006:Q2	-0.06
2006:Q3	-0.15
2006:Q4	-0.04
2007:Q1	-0.12
2007:Q2	0.14
2007:Q3	0.07
2007:Q4	0.05
2008:Q1	0.10
2008:Q2	0.08
2008:Q3	0.15
2008:Q4	0.38
2009:Q1	0.42
2009:Q2	0.51
2009:Q3	0.60
2009:Q4	0.88
2010:Q1	0.83
2010:Q2	0.84
2010:Q3	0.97
2010:Q4	0.89

Note. Average contribution during 1980-2007 is normalized to zero.

Middle-left panel
An Unobserved Components Model

The model treats the NAIRU and other trends as unobserved components.
Related through such macroeconomic relationships as the Phillips Curve and Okun's Law.
Variant allows for the possibility that the Phillips curve flattened in the mid-1980s.
Also allows the NAIRU to be more variable than in previous episodes.

Middle-right panel
Model NAIRU

Period	Percent
1963:Q2	5.24
1963:Q3	5.19
1963:Q4	5.29
1964:Q1	5.34
1964:Q2	5.33
1964:Q3	5.28
1964:Q4	5.34
1965:Q1	5.46
1965:Q2	5.43
1965:Q3	5.35
1965:Q4	5.40
1966:Q1	5.53
1966:Q2	5.66
1966:Q3	5.64
1966:Q4	5.54
1967:Q1	5.47
1967:Q2	5.39
1967:Q3	5.31
1967:Q4	5.33
1968:Q1	5.26
1968:Q2	5.25
1968:Q3	5.33
1968:Q4	5.34
1969:Q1	5.41
1969:Q2	5.45
1969:Q3	5.50
1969:Q4	5.37
1970:Q1	5.44
1970:Q2	5.52
1970:Q3	5.54
1970:Q4	5.67
1971:Q1	5.62
1971:Q2	5.58
1971:Q3	5.66
1971:Q4	5.69
1972:Q1	5.72
1972:Q2	5.76
1972:Q3	5.85
1972:Q4	5.89
1973:Q1	6.00
1973:Q2	6.16
1973:Q3	6.21
1973:Q4	6.11
1974:Q1	6.19
1974:Q2	6.06
1974:Q3	5.97
1974:Q4	5.96
1975:Q1	6.25
1975:Q2	6.26
1975:Q3	6.07
1975:Q4	6.14
1976:Q1	6.04
1976:Q2	6.03
1976:Q3	6.14
1976:Q4	6.21
1977:Q1	6.20
1977:Q2	6.20
1977:Q3	6.29
1977:Q4	6.24
1978:Q1	6.22
1978:Q2	6.30
1978:Q3	6.52
1978:Q4	6.58
1979:Q1	6.59
1979:Q2	6.47
1979:Q3	6.50
1979:Q4	6.46
1980:Q1	6.42
1980:Q2	6.63
1980:Q3	6.62
1980:Q4	6.50
1981:Q1	6.58
1981:Q2	6.47
1981:Q3	6.37
1981:Q4	6.60
1982:Q1	6.66
1982:Q2	6.72
1982:Q3	6.80
1982:Q4	6.98
1983:Q1	6.83
1983:Q2	6.90
1983:Q3	6.91
1983:Q4	6.73
1984:Q1	6.61
1984:Q2	6.57
1984:Q3	6.64
1984:Q4	6.60
1985:Q1	6.62
1985:Q2	6.63
1985:Q3	6.59
1985:Q4	6.46
1986:Q1	6.44
1986:Q2	6.51
1986:Q3	6.38
1986:Q4	6.32
1987:Q1	6.25
1987:Q2	6.14
1987:Q3	6.05
1987:Q4	6.04
1988:Q1	6.03
1988:Q2	5.97
1988:Q3	6.06
1988:Q4	6.08
1989:Q1	5.99
1989:Q2	5.94
1989:Q3	5.92
1989:Q4	5.88
1990:Q1	5.67
1990:Q2	5.56
1990:Q3	5.55
1990:Q4	5.50
1991:Q1	5.46
1991:Q2	5.40
1991:Q3	5.26
1991:Q4	5.20
1992:Q1	5.20
1992:Q2	5.24
1992:Q3	5.23
1992:Q4	5.19
1993:Q1	5.10
1993:Q2	5.12
1993:Q3	5.04
1993:Q4	5.02
1994:Q1	5.08
1994:Q2	5.03
1994:Q3	5.05
1994:Q4	5.00
1995:Q1	4.96
1995:Q2	5.08
1995:Q3	5.12
1995:Q4	5.12
1996:Q1	5.09
1996:Q2	5.13
1996:Q3	5.14
1996:Q4	5.27
1997:Q1	5.28
1997:Q2	5.21
1997:Q3	5.22
1997:Q4	5.20
1998:Q1	5.24
1998:Q2	5.16
1998:Q3	5.29
1998:Q4	5.33
1999:Q1	5.35
1999:Q2	5.38
1999:Q3	5.43
1999:Q4	5.42
2000:Q1	5.44
2000:Q2	5.39
2000:Q3	5.44
2000:Q4	5.34
2001:Q1	5.36
2001:Q2	5.30
2001:Q3	5.26
2001:Q4	5.37
2002:Q1	5.38
2002:Q2	5.34
2002:Q3	5.27
2002:Q4	5.28
2003:Q1	5.21
2003:Q2	5.32
2003:Q3	5.35
2003:Q4	5.29
2004:Q1	5.32
2004:Q2	5.35
2004:Q3	5.34
2004:Q4	5.36
2005:Q1	5.37
2005:Q2	5.32
2005:Q3	5.30
2005:Q4	5.39
2006:Q1	5.37
2006:Q2	5.39
2006:Q3	5.42
2006:Q4	5.39
2007:Q1	5.39
2007:Q2	5.34
2007:Q3	5.38
2007:Q4	5.40
2008:Q1	5.36
2008:Q2	5.32
2008:Q3	5.30
2008:Q4	5.38
2009:Q1	5.67
2009:Q2	5.98
2009:Q3	5.88
2009:Q4	6.12
2010:Q1	6.02
2010:Q2	6.15
2010:Q3	6.03
2010:Q4	6.19

Bottom-left panel
Tealbook NAIRU

Percent
Period	Unemployment rate	NAIRU*	Effective NAIRU**
1960:Q1	5.32	5.22	5.22
1960:Q2	5.38	5.22	5.22
1960:Q3	5.70	5.22	5.22
1960:Q4	6.40	5.22	5.22
1961:Q1	6.92	5.22	5.25
1961:Q2	7.12	5.22	5.53
1961:Q3	6.90	5.22	5.39
1961:Q4	6.32	5.22	5.32
1962:Q1	5.77	5.22	5.29
1962:Q2	5.63	5.22	5.27
1962:Q3	5.69	5.22	5.24
1962:Q4	5.65	5.22	5.22
1963:Q1	5.92	5.22	5.22
1963:Q2	5.83	5.22	5.22
1963:Q3	5.64	5.22	5.22
1963:Q4	5.72	5.22	5.22
1964:Q1	5.61	5.22	5.22
1964:Q2	5.37	5.22	5.22
1964:Q3	5.14	5.22	5.22
1964:Q4	5.11	5.22	5.22
1965:Q1	5.02	5.22	5.22
1965:Q2	4.81	5.22	5.22
1965:Q3	4.50	5.22	5.22
1965:Q4	4.25	5.22	5.22
1966:Q1	4.00	5.22	5.22
1966:Q2	3.96	5.23	5.23
1966:Q3	3.90	5.23	5.23
1966:Q4	3.84	5.23	5.23
1967:Q1	3.96	5.23	5.23
1967:Q2	3.96	5.23	5.23
1967:Q3	3.94	5.24	5.24
1967:Q4	4.07	5.24	5.24
1968:Q1	3.88	5.25	5.25
1968:Q2	3.69	5.26	5.26
1968:Q3	3.66	5.27	5.27
1968:Q4	3.55	5.28	5.28
1969:Q1	3.53	5.30	5.30
1969:Q2	3.58	5.31	5.31
1969:Q3	3.74	5.33	5.33
1969:Q4	3.74	5.35	5.35
1970:Q1	4.31	5.38	5.38
1970:Q2	4.90	5.41	5.41
1970:Q3	5.32	5.44	5.44
1970:Q4	5.95	5.47	5.47
1971:Q1	6.07	5.50	5.52
1971:Q2	6.06	5.53	5.62
1971:Q3	6.13	5.57	5.66
1971:Q4	6.10	5.61	5.69
1972:Q1	5.92	5.65	5.71
1972:Q2	5.81	5.69	5.75
1972:Q3	5.73	5.73	5.78
1972:Q4	5.45	5.76	5.81
1973:Q1	5.10	5.80	5.82
1973:Q2	5.04	5.84	5.85
1973:Q3	4.94	5.88	5.89
1973:Q4	4.92	5.91	5.93
1974:Q1	5.23	5.95	5.99
1974:Q2	5.31	5.98	6.02
1974:Q3	5.73	6.01	6.06
1974:Q4	6.70	6.04	6.10
1975:Q1	8.36	6.07	6.28
1975:Q2	8.97	6.10	6.36
1975:Q3	8.61	6.13	6.41
1975:Q4	8.40	6.15	6.37
1976:Q1	7.87	6.17	6.41
1976:Q2	7.67	6.20	6.42
1976:Q3	7.84	6.22	6.48
1976:Q4	7.88	6.25	6.47
1977:Q1	7.63	6.28	6.47
1977:Q2	7.25	6.30	6.45
1977:Q3	7.01	6.33	6.48
1977:Q4	6.75	6.36	6.49
1978:Q1	6.47	6.39	6.48
1978:Q2	6.14	6.42	6.48
1978:Q3	6.17	6.45	6.48
1978:Q4	6.03	6.48	6.50
1979:Q1	6.02	6.52	6.53
1979:Q2	5.86	6.55	6.57
1979:Q3	6.01	6.59	6.60
1979:Q4	6.08	6.62	6.63
1980:Q1	6.44	6.66	6.67
1980:Q2	7.47	6.69	6.73
1980:Q3	7.83	6.72	6.81
1980:Q4	7.55	6.75	6.87
1981:Q1	7.58	6.78	6.89
1981:Q2	7.55	6.81	6.88
1981:Q3	7.57	6.84	6.87
1981:Q4	8.40	6.87	6.88
1982:Q1	9.00	6.89	6.93
1982:Q2	9.58	6.92	7.04
1982:Q3	10.10	6.94	7.05
1982:Q4	10.83	6.95	7.20
1983:Q1	10.56	6.96	7.27
1983:Q2	10.26	6.97	7.36
1983:Q3	9.53	6.98	7.17
1983:Q4	8.71	6.97	7.13
1984:Q1	8.05	6.97	7.08
1984:Q2	7.65	6.96	7.03
1984:Q3	7.63	6.95	7.01
1984:Q4	7.46	6.93	6.99
1985:Q1	7.46	6.91	6.97
1985:Q2	7.47	6.88	6.92
1985:Q3	7.40	6.85	6.85
1985:Q4	7.24	6.82	6.82
1986:Q1	7.18	6.78	6.78
1986:Q2	7.35	6.73	6.74
1986:Q3	7.17	6.69	6.69
1986:Q4	7.01	6.63	6.64
1987:Q1	6.80	6.58	6.58
1987:Q2	6.46	6.52	6.52
1987:Q3	6.20	6.45	6.45
1987:Q4	6.06	6.39	6.39
1988:Q1	5.92	6.32	6.32
1988:Q2	5.68	6.25	6.25
1988:Q3	5.69	6.18	6.18
1988:Q4	5.55	6.10	6.10
1989:Q1	5.41	6.02	6.02
1989:Q2	5.44	5.94	5.94
1989:Q3	5.48	5.86	5.86
1989:Q4	5.58	5.78	5.78
1990:Q1	5.43	5.83	5.83
1990:Q2	5.47	5.77	5.77
1990:Q3	5.82	5.71	5.71
1990:Q4	6.24	5.65	5.65
1991:Q1	6.70	5.60	5.60
1991:Q2	6.95	5.54	5.56
1991:Q3	6.98	5.49	5.49
1991:Q4	7.22	5.43	5.50
1992:Q1	7.50	5.38	5.66
1992:Q2	7.72	5.34	5.63
1992:Q3	7.75	5.29	5.54
1992:Q4	7.53	5.25	5.50
1993:Q1	7.28	5.20	5.46
1993:Q2	7.20	5.16	5.40
1993:Q3	6.93	5.13	5.36
1993:Q4	6.75	5.09	5.28
1994:Q1	6.58	5.16	5.27
1994:Q2	6.19	5.14	5.17
1994:Q3	6.03	5.11	5.11
1994:Q4	5.65	5.09	5.09
1995:Q1	5.51	5.07	5.07
1995:Q2	5.70	5.05	5.05
1995:Q3	5.68	5.03	5.03
1995:Q4	5.60	5.02	5.02
1996:Q1	5.57	5.01	5.01
1996:Q2	5.50	5.00	5.00
1996:Q3	5.29	4.99	4.99
1996:Q4	5.34	4.99	4.99
1997:Q1	5.24	4.98	4.98
1997:Q2	4.99	4.98	4.98
1997:Q3	4.88	4.99	4.99
1997:Q4	4.71	4.98	4.98
1998:Q1	4.63	5.01	5.01
1998:Q2	4.40	5.01	5.01
1998:Q3	4.52	5.01	5.01
1998:Q4	4.42	5.01	5.01
1999:Q1	4.27	5.01	5.01
1999:Q2	4.24	5.01	5.01
1999:Q3	4.23	5.01	5.01
1999:Q4	4.07	5.02	5.02
2000:Q1	4.05	5.00	5.00
2000:Q2	3.95	5.00	5.00
2000:Q3	4.03	5.00	5.00
2000:Q4	3.92	5.00	5.00
2001:Q1	4.23	5.00	5.00
2001:Q2	4.41	5.00	5.00
2001:Q3	4.81	5.00	5.00
2001:Q4	5.53	5.01	5.01
2002:Q1	5.70	5.00	5.02
2002:Q2	5.84	5.00	5.19
2002:Q3	5.72	5.00	5.17
2002:Q4	5.84	5.00	5.13
2003:Q1	5.87	5.00	5.11
2003:Q2	6.15	5.00	5.13
2003:Q3	6.10	5.00	5.13
2003:Q4	5.81	5.00	5.13
2004:Q1	5.68	5.00	5.06
2004:Q2	5.58	5.00	5.00
2004:Q3	5.43	5.00	5.00
2004:Q4	5.38	5.00	5.00
2005:Q1	5.27	5.00	5.00
2005:Q2	5.10	5.00	5.00
2005:Q3	4.96	5.00	5.00
2005:Q4	4.94	5.00	5.00
2006:Q1	4.71	5.00	5.00
2006:Q2	4.64	5.00	5.00
2006:Q3	4.63	5.00	5.00
2006:Q4	4.44	5.00	5.00
2007:Q1	4.50	5.00	5.00
2007:Q2	4.48	5.00	5.00
2007:Q3	4.65	5.00	5.00
2007:Q4	4.80	5.00	5.00
2008:Q1	4.95	5.00	5.00
2008:Q2	5.31	5.00	5.00
2008:Q3	6.03	5.17	5.30
2008:Q4	6.91	5.33	5.48
2009:Q1	8.22	5.50	5.76
2009:Q2	9.28	5.67	6.03
2009:Q3	9.68	5.83	6.36
2009:Q4	10.00	6.00	6.61
2010:Q1	9.69	6.00	6.75
2010:Q2	9.65	6.00	6.66
2010:Q3	9.58	6.00	6.65
2010:Q4	9.62	6.00	6.59
Forecast
2011:Q1	9.46	6.00	6.58
2011:Q2	9.34	6.00	6.56
2011:Q3	9.14	6.00	6.55
2011:Q4	8.93	6.00	6.54
2012:Q1	8.72	6.00	6.48
2012:Q2	8.43	6.00	6.37
2012:Q3	8.13	6.00	6.25
2012:Q4	7.84	6.00	6.15
2013:Q1	7.60	5.94	5.94
2013:Q2	7.38	5.88	5.88
2013:Q3	7.17	5.81	5.81
2013:Q4	6.96	5.75	5.75
2014:Q1	6.73	5.69	5.69
2014:Q2	6.49	5.63	5.63
2014:Q3	6.23	5.56	5.56
2014:Q4	5.99	5.50	5.50
2015:Q1	5.79	5.44	5.44
2015:Q2	5.61	5.38	5.38
2015:Q3	5.46	5.31	5.31
2015:Q4	5.31	5.25	5.25

As shown in the chart, when unemployment rate is above effective NAIRU, the region between them is shaded gray and is labeled "Labor market slack." When unemployment rate is below NAIRU, the region between them is shaded light green.

* Staff estimate. Return to table

** Includes emergency unemployment compensation and state-federal extended benefits programs. Return to table

Bottom-right panel
Duration of Unemployment

Period	Long-term unemployed* (Percent of labor force)	Median duration of unemployment (Weeks)
January 1966	0.39	ND
February 1966	0.36	ND
March 1966	0.36	ND
April 1966	0.33	ND
May 1966	0.38	ND
June 1966	0.30	ND
July 1966	0.28	ND
August 1966	0.27	ND
September 1966	0.27	ND
October 1966	0.29	ND
November 1966	0.26	ND
December 1966	0.27	ND
January 1967	0.26	ND
February 1967	0.26	ND
March 1967	0.24	ND
April 1967	0.23	ND
May 1967	0.20	ND
June 1967	0.19	ND
July 1967	0.19	4.5
August 1967	0.26	4.7
September 1967	0.21	4.6
October 1967	0.23	4.9
November 1967	0.23	4.7
December 1967	0.25	4.8
January 1968	0.24	5.1
February 1968	0.23	4.5
March 1968	0.23	4.1
April 1968	0.19	4.6
May 1968	0.17	4.4
June 1968	0.20	4.4
July 1968	0.20	4.5
August 1968	0.19	4.2
September 1968	0.17	4.6
October 1968	0.17	4.8
November 1968	0.17	4.4
December 1968	0.20	4.4
January 1969	0.16	4.4
February 1969	0.14	4.9
March 1969	0.15	4.0
April 1969	0.17	4.0
May 1969	0.16	4.2
June 1969	0.15	4.4
July 1969	0.20	4.4
August 1969	0.16	4.4
September 1969	0.18	4.7
October 1969	0.17	4.5
November 1969	0.18	4.8
December 1969	0.16	4.6
January 1970	0.17	4.6
February 1970	0.20	4.5
March 1970	0.22	4.6
April 1970	0.24	4.1
May 1970	0.28	4.7
June 1970	0.27	4.9
July 1970	0.28	5.1
August 1970	0.30	5.4
September 1970	0.34	5.2
October 1970	0.31	5.2
November 1970	0.40	5.6
December 1970	0.46	5.9
January 1971	0.51	6.2
February 1971	0.54	6.3
March 1971	0.54	6.4
April 1971	0.54	6.5
May 1971	0.60	6.7
June 1971	0.65	5.7
July 1971	0.67	6.2
August 1971	0.65	6.4
September 1971	0.66	5.8
October 1971	0.70	6.5
November 1971	0.68	6.4
December 1971	0.68	6.2
January 1972	0.69	6.2
February 1972	0.76	6.6
March 1972	0.73	6.6
April 1972	0.78	6.7
May 1972	0.67	6.6
June 1972	0.63	5.4
July 1972	0.60	6.1
August 1972	0.61	6.0
September 1972	0.63	5.6
October 1972	0.60	5.7
November 1972	0.54	5.7
December 1972	0.52	6.1
January 1973	0.47	5.7
February 1973	0.42	5.2
March 1973	0.44	5.5
April 1973	0.38	5.0
May 1973	0.39	4.9
June 1973	0.36	5.0
July 1973	0.31	5.2
August 1973	0.37	4.9
September 1973	0.33	5.4
October 1973	0.37	5.5
November 1973	0.39	5.1
December 1973	0.36	4.7
January 1974	0.36	5.0
February 1974	0.37	5.1
March 1974	0.36	4.8
April 1974	0.39	5.0
May 1974	0.39	4.6
June 1974	0.40	5.3
July 1974	0.42	5.7
August 1974	0.42	5.0
September 1974	0.42	5.3
October 1974	0.43	5.5
November 1974	0.46	5.2
December 1974	0.58	5.7
January 1975	0.67	6.3
February 1975	0.77	7.1
March 1975	0.83	7.2
April 1975	1.03	8.7
May 1975	1.16	9.4
June 1975	1.39	8.8
July 1975	1.49	8.6
August 1975	1.56	9.2
September 1975	1.70	9.2
October 1975	1.54	8.6
November 1975	1.75	9.5
December 1975	1.68	9.0
January 1976	1.67	9.0
February 1976	1.61	8.2
March 1976	1.53	8.7
April 1976	1.47	8.2
May 1976	1.27	8.3
June 1976	1.41	7.8
July 1976	1.29	7.7
August 1976	1.32	7.9
September 1976	1.25	7.8
October 1976	1.27	7.7
November 1976	1.31	8.4
December 1976	1.37	8.0
January 1977	1.25	7.5
February 1977	1.23	7.2
March 1977	1.19	7.2
April 1977	1.14	7.3
May 1977	1.08	7.9
June 1977	1.04	6.2
July 1977	0.98	7.1
August 1977	0.90	7.0
September 1977	0.94	6.7
October 1977	0.91	6.9
November 1977	0.89	7.0
December 1977	0.85	6.8
January 1978	0.81	6.5
February 1978	0.66	6.7
March 1978	0.71	6.2
April 1978	0.67	6.1
May 1978	0.68	5.7
June 1978	0.63	6.0
July 1978	0.64	5.8
August 1978	0.60	5.8
September 1978	0.61	5.6
October 1978	0.58	5.9
November 1978	0.51	5.5
December 1978	0.49	5.6
January 1979	0.51	5.9
February 1979	0.53	5.9
March 1979	0.57	5.9
April 1979	0.53	5.4
May 1979	0.50	5.6
June 1979	0.50	5.6
July 1979	0.45	5.9
August 1979	0.51	4.8
September 1979	0.50	5.5
October 1979	0.50	5.5
November 1979	0.52	5.3
December 1979	0.51	5.7
January 1980	0.51	5.3
February 1980	0.48	5.8
March 1980	0.58	6.0
April 1980	0.65	5.8
May 1980	0.67	5.7
June 1980	0.72	6.4
July 1980	0.82	7.0
August 1980	0.87	7.5
September 1980	0.90	7.7
October 1980	0.99	7.5
November 1980	1.05	7.7
December 1980	1.07	7.5
January 1981	1.17	7.4
February 1981	1.15	7.1
March 1981	1.12	7.1
April 1981	1.04	7.4
May 1981	1.05	6.9
June 1981	1.04	6.6
July 1981	1.00	7.1
August 1981	1.07	7.2
September 1981	1.03	6.8
October 1981	1.04	6.8
November 1981	1.05	6.9
December 1981	1.08	6.9
January 1982	1.09	7.1
February 1982	1.17	7.5
March 1982	1.24	7.7
April 1982	1.37	8.1
May 1982	1.46	8.5
June 1982	1.62	9.5
July 1982	1.65	8.5
August 1982	1.69	8.7
September 1982	1.82	9.5
October 1982	2.03	9.7
November 1982	2.11	10.0
December 1982	2.31	10.2
January 1983	2.41	11.1
February 1983	2.45	9.8
March 1983	2.48	10.4
April 1983	2.45	10.9
May 1983	2.48	12.3
June 1983	2.58	11.3
July 1983	2.32	10.1
August 1983	2.25	9.3
September 1983	2.17	9.3
October 1983	2.03	9.4
November 1983	1.93	9.3
December 1983	1.83	8.7
January 1984	1.82	9.1
February 1984	1.63	8.3
March 1984	1.58	8.3
April 1984	1.56	8.2
May 1984	1.49	9.1
June 1984	1.38	7.5
July 1984	1.40	7.5
August 1984	1.33	7.3
September 1984	1.27	7.6
October 1984	1.25	7.2
November 1984	1.25	7.2
December 1984	1.22	7.3
January 1985	1.15	6.8
February 1985	1.17	7.1
March 1985	1.17	7.1
April 1985	1.19	6.9
May 1985	1.07	6.9
June 1985	1.11	6.6
July 1985	1.10	6.9
August 1985	1.06	7.1
September 1985	1.06	6.9
October 1985	1.03	7.1
November 1985	1.12	7.0
December 1985	1.04	6.8
January 1986	0.93	6.7
February 1986	1.01	6.9
March 1986	1.00	6.8
April 1986	1.00	6.7
May 1986	0.99	6.8
June 1986	1.08	7.0
July 1986	1.03	6.9
August 1986	1.01	7.1
September 1986	1.04	7.4
October 1986	1.02	7.0
November 1986	0.98	7.1
December 1986	0.97	7.1
January 1987	0.96	6.9
February 1987	0.93	6.6
March 1987	0.94	6.6
April 1987	0.90	7.1
May 1987	0.93	6.6
June 1987	0.90	6.5
July 1987	0.82	6.5
August 1987	0.87	6.4
September 1987	0.82	6.0
October 1987	0.79	6.3
November 1987	0.77	6.2
December 1987	0.75	6.0
January 1988	0.72	6.2
February 1988	0.73	6.3
March 1988	0.70	6.4
April 1988	0.67	5.9
May 1988	0.70	5.9
June 1988	0.66	5.8
July 1988	0.65	6.1
August 1988	0.65	5.9
September 1988	0.67	5.7
October 1988	0.63	5.6
November 1988	0.57	5.7
December 1988	0.60	5.9
January 1989	0.59	5.6
February 1989	0.52	5.4
March 1989	0.54	5.4
April 1989	0.58	5.4
May 1989	0.51	5.3
June 1989	0.49	5.4
July 1989	0.50	5.6
August 1989	0.45	5.0
September 1989	0.48	4.9
October 1989	0.52	4.9
November 1989	0.53	4.8
December 1989	0.51	4.9
January 1990	0.51	5.1
February 1990	0.50	5.3
March 1990	0.51	5.1
April 1990	0.52	4.8
May 1990	0.51	5.2
June 1990	0.51	5.2
July 1990	0.55	5.4
August 1990	0.58	5.4
September 1990	0.62	5.6
October 1990	0.62	5.8
November 1990	0.66	5.7
December 1990	0.66	5.9
January 1991	0.69	6.0
February 1991	0.72	6.2
March 1991	0.75	6.7
April 1991	0.77	6.6
May 1991	0.83	6.4
June 1991	0.88	6.9
July 1991	0.88	7.0
August 1991	0.93	7.3
September 1991	0.94	6.8
October 1991	0.98	7.2
November 1991	1.09	7.5
December 1991	1.19	7.8
January 1992	1.28	8.1
February 1992	1.34	8.2
March 1992	1.39	8.3
April 1992	1.37	8.5
May 1992	1.55	8.8
June 1992	1.67	8.7
July 1992	1.65	8.6
August 1992	1.61	8.8
September 1992	1.64	8.6
October 1992	1.71	9.0
November 1992	1.55	9.0
December 1992	1.60	9.3
January 1993	1.53	8.6
February 1993	1.48	8.5
March 1993	1.40	8.5
April 1993	1.27	8.4
May 1993	1.37	8.1
June 1993	1.38	8.3
July 1993	1.37	8.2
August 1993	1.37	8.2
September 1993	1.36	8.3
October 1993	1.40	8.0
November 1993	1.39	8.3
December 1993	1.37	8.3
January 1994	1.33	8.6
February 1994	1.35	9.2
March 1994	1.37	9.3
April 1994	1.34	9.1
May 1994	1.30	9.2
June 1994	1.21	9.3
July 1994	1.20	9.0
August 1994	1.20	8.9
September 1994	1.17	9.2
October 1994	1.21	10.0
November 1994	1.11	9.0
December 1994	1.04	8.7
January 1995	1.01	8.0
February 1995	0.93	8.1
March 1995	1.01	8.3
April 1995	1.07	8.3
May 1995	1.00	9.1
June 1995	0.94	7.9
July 1995	0.94	8.5
August 1995	0.93	8.3
September 1995	0.95	7.9
October 1995	0.92	8.2
November 1995	0.95	8.0
December 1995	0.92	8.3
January 1996	0.91	8.3
February 1996	0.90	7.8
March 1996	1.00	8.3
April 1996	1.01	8.6
May 1996	1.02	8.6
June 1996	1.02	8.3
July 1996	0.99	8.3
August 1996	0.94	8.4
September 1996	0.90	8.5
October 1996	0.88	8.3
November 1996	0.85	7.7
December 1996	0.85	7.8
January 1997	0.85	7.8
February 1997	0.82	8.1
March 1997	0.81	7.9
April 1997	0.81	8.3
May 1997	0.77	8.0
June 1997	0.79	8.0
July 1997	0.79	8.3
August 1997	0.79	7.8
September 1997	0.79	8.2
October 1997	0.76	7.7
November 1997	0.68	7.6
December 1997	0.72	7.5
January 1998	0.73	7.4
February 1998	0.70	7.0
March 1998	0.67	6.8
April 1998	0.64	6.7
May 1998	0.61	6.0
June 1998	0.57	6.9
July 1998	0.60	6.7
August 1998	0.59	6.8
September 1998	0.66	6.7
October 1998	0.62	5.8
November 1998	0.63	6.6
December 1998	0.58	6.8
January 1999	0.51	6.9
February 1999	0.58	6.8
March 1999	0.51	6.8
April 1999	0.50	6.2
May 1999	0.52	6.5
June 1999	0.58	6.3
July 1999	0.52	5.8
August 1999	0.51	6.5
September 1999	0.51	6.0
October 1999	0.52	6.1
November 1999	0.49	6.2
December 1999	0.49	5.8
January 2000	0.51	5.8
February 2000	0.44	6.1
March 2000	0.45	6.0
April 2000	0.42	6.1
May 2000	0.45	5.8
June 2000	0.44	5.7
July 2000	0.49	6.0
August 2000	0.50	6.3
September 2000	0.45	5.2
October 2000	0.44	6.1
November 2000	0.41	6.1
December 2000	0.45	6.0
January 2001	0.47	5.8
February 2001	0.50	6.1
March 2001	0.48	6.6
April 2001	0.50	5.9
May 2001	0.44	6.3
June 2001	0.50	6.0
July 2001	0.49	6.8
August 2001	0.60	6.9
September 2001	0.57	7.2
October 2001	0.63	7.3
November 2001	0.77	7.7
December 2001	0.78	8.2
January 2002	0.84	8.4
February 2002	0.84	8.3
March 2002	0.92	8.4
April 2002	1.01	8.9
May 2002	1.09	9.5
June 2002	1.13	11.0
July 2002	1.09	8.9
August 2002	1.08	9.0
September 2002	1.09	9.5
October 2002	1.14	9.6
November 2002	1.20	9.3
December 2002	1.33	9.6
January 2003	1.21	9.6
February 2003	1.28	9.5
March 2003	1.23	9.7
April 2003	1.32	10.2
May 2003	1.32	9.9
June 2003	1.43	11.5
July 2003	1.35	10.3
August 2003	1.36	10.1
September 2003	1.37	10.2
October 2003	1.34	10.4
November 2003	1.36	10.3
December 2003	1.32	10.4
January 2004	1.30	10.6
February 2004	1.27	10.2
March 2004	1.35	10.2
April 2004	1.23	9.5
May 2004	1.22	9.9
June 2004	1.25	11.0
July 2004	1.14	8.9
August 2004	1.11	9.2
September 2004	1.15	9.6
October 2004	1.18	9.5
November 2004	1.15	9.7
December 2004	1.12	9.5
January 2005	1.11	9.4
February 2005	1.10	9.2
March 2005	1.12	9.3
April 2005	1.08	9.0
May 2005	1.03	9.1
June 2005	0.92	9.0
July 2005	0.92	8.8
August 2005	0.94	9.2
September 2005	0.96	8.4
October 2005	0.95	8.6
November 2005	0.91	8.5
December 2005	0.90	8.7
January 2006	0.78	8.6
February 2006	0.90	9.1
March 2006	0.87	8.7
April 2006	0.88	8.4
May 2006	0.88	8.5
June 2006	0.76	7.3
July 2006	0.86	8.0
August 2006	0.86	8.4
September 2006	0.82	8.0
October 2006	0.71	7.9
November 2006	0.74	8.3
December 2006	0.72	7.5
January 2007	0.74	8.3
February 2007	0.81	8.4
March 2007	0.81	9.1
April 2007	0.79	8.6
May 2007	0.74	8.2
June 2007	0.75	7.7
July 2007	0.85	8.7
August 2007	0.82	8.8
September 2007	0.83	8.7
October 2007	0.85	8.4
November 2007	0.89	8.7
December 2007	0.86	8.4
January 2008	0.90	9.0
February 2008	0.86	8.7
March 2008	0.85	8.6
April 2008	0.89	9.2
May 2008	1.02	7.9
June 2008	1.03	9.1
July 2008	1.08	9.6
August 2008	1.21	9.6
September 2008	1.31	10.3
October 2008	1.47	10.5
November 2008	1.44	9.9
December 2008	1.69	10.6
January 2009	1.74	10.7
February 2009	1.93	11.6
March 2009	2.10	12.2
April 2009	2.40	12.9
May 2009	2.59	14.4
June 2009	2.84	17.4
July 2009	3.21	15.8
August 2009	3.27	16.1
September 2009	3.57	18.0
October 2009	3.67	18.9
November 2009	3.85	20.2
December 2009	4.00	20.4
January 2010	4.11	20.0
February 2010	3.99	19.6
March 2010	4.23	20.3
April 2010	4.31	21.6
May 2010	4.35	22.8
June 2010	4.35	25.5
July 2010	4.26	21.7
August 2010	4.06	20.6
September 2010	3.99	20.5
October 2010	4.05	21.3
November 2010	4.11	21.7
December 2010	4.19	22.4

* Unemployed for more than 26 weeks. Return to table

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: April 1960-February 1961, December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 4
Theoretical Motivation

Top panel
The Matching Function

$$$$ H_{t} = \mu_{t}V_{t}^{1-\alpha}U_{t}^{\alpha}$$$$

$$ H_{t}$$ = total hires (or matches)
$$ V_{t}$$ = total vacancies
$$ U_{t}$$ = total unemployment
$$ \mu_{t}$$ = "matching efficiency" parameter

Middle panel
Matching Efficiency

Lower efficiency implies fewer hires for a given $$ U_{t}$$, $$ V_{t}$$
Decline in efficiency shifts Beveridge curve out
Efficiency parameter can change because of structural or cyclical factors (i.e., any changes not captured by $$ U_{t}$$ or $$ V_{t}$$)

Bottom panel
Shifts and Movements in the Beveridge Curve

Beveridge Curve

A graph shows a Beveridge curve, which is a downward-sloping curve that is concave to the origin. The horizontal axis shows the unemployment rate. The vertical axis shows the vacancy rate. The graph shows that expansionary movements represent movements up and to the left along the curve and that recessionary movements represent movements down and to the right along the curve. It also shows that the curve can shift out (up and to the right) in a parallel fashion.

Things that shift the Beveridge curve

Changes in matching efficiency
Changes in layoff, separation rates
"Looping" to new equilibrium

Things that affect measured matching efficiency

Mismatch
Behavior of quitting workers
Search efforts of workers, firms

Exhibit 5
Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Unemployment Duration by Reason for Unemployment

Top-left panel

Weeks Unemployed
Period	Job losers (UI eligible)	Quits/entrants (UI ineligible)
January 2005	13.21	15.50
February 2005	13.33	15.62
March 2005	13.25	14.85
April 2005	12.79	15.63
May 2005	12.73	15.02
June 2005	13.03	14.89
July 2005	12.86	15.20
August 2005	12.54	15.28
September 2005	12.90	15.73
October 2005	12.63	15.39
November 2005	13.16	14.98
December 2005	12.75	14.21
January 2006	12.70	13.60
February 2006	12.30	13.94
March 2006	11.90	13.73
April 2006	13.03	13.44
May 2006	13.30	12.98
June 2006	12.68	13.50
July 2006	11.88	15.55
August 2006	11.74	15.91
September 2006	12.14	15.84
October 2006	11.69	13.89
November 2006	11.65	13.73
December 2006	11.29	13.52
January 2007	11.96	13.67
February 2007	11.98	12.63
March 2007	12.14	13.36
April 2007	12.14	14.30
May 2007	12.43	15.28
June 2007	13.16	14.94
July 2007	14.50	14.40
August 2007	14.58	13.94
September 2007	14.53	14.76
October 2007	13.39	15.27
November 2007	12.90	16.20
December 2007	13.17	16.14
January 2008	12.77	16.23
February 2008	13.72	15.77
March 2008	14.08	14.75
April 2008	14.00	14.41
May 2008	14.11	17.01
June 2008	14.47	19.32
July 2008	15.69	21.44
August 2008	16.66	21.17
September 2008	18.02	21.21
October 2008	19.63	20.61
November 2008	21.20	19.84
December 2008	25.41	20.19
January 2009	29.49	21.43
February 2009	32.64	24.97
March 2009	32.94	26.43
April 2009	32.03	27.12
May 2009	35.75	31.52
June 2009	34.47	35.39
July 2009	35.60	37.02
August 2009	33.77	32.60
September 2009	33.42	29.19
October 2009	32.29	29.70
November 2009	29.25	29.91
December 2009	30.10	30.60
January 2010	29.05	32.53
February 2010	28.94	32.26
March 2010	28.04	31.94
April 2010	27.37	29.28
May 2010	26.78	28.95
June 2010	25.37	28.06
July 2010	25.29	28.25
August 2010	26.78	28.97
September 2010	27.19	27.52
October 2010	27.74	27.61

Note: Through October, 2010, three-month moving average. From Daly et al. (2011), using CPS data. Dashed vertical lines indicate effective dates for extensions of maximum UI duration: June 2008, November 2008, November 2009. A shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007-June 2009.

Top-right panel
Extended UI Benefits

Job loser's behavior: + 0.8% pts to $$ U_{t}$$
Transitions out of unemployment: + 0.9 to 1.7% pts to $$ U_{t}$$
Preferred estimate across studies: about +0.8% pts to $$ U_{t}$$

Unemployment Transition Rates by Unemployment Duration

Bottom-left panel
Transitions from Unemployment to Employment

Duration, Weeks	Transition Rate, 2004-2007	Transition Rate, 2009-2010
0-4	0.332	0.261
5-8	0.256	0.178
9-12	0.234	0.173
13-16	0.233	0.162
17-20	0.198	0.137
21-24	0.221	0.138
25-28	0.231	0.125
29-32	0.208	0.111
33-40	0.209	0.119
41-68	0.165	0.116
69-96	0.132	0.093
97+	0.144	0.091

Note: From Fujita (2010), using CPS data.

Bottom-right panel
Transitions from Unemployment to Out of the Labor Force

Duration, Weeks	Transition Rate, 2004-2007	Transition Rate, 2009-2010
0-4	0.203	0.167
5-8	0.201	0.161
9-12	0.198	0.154
13-16	0.183	0.141
17-20	0.162	0.133
21-24	0.158	0.144
25-28	0.235	0.176
29-32	0.184	0.142
33-40	0.210	0.155
41-68	0.220	0.165
69-96	0.227	0.147
97+	0.260	0.190

Note: From Fujita (2010), using CPS data.

Exhibit 6
Employer Recruiting Intensity

Recruiting Intensity per Vacancy over Time

Top-left panel

Period	Recruiting Intensity Index
January 2001	1.13
February 2001	1.12
March 2001	1.17
April 2001	1.10
May 2001	1.11
June 2001	1.07
July 2001	1.07
August 2001	1.07
September 2001	1.06
October 2001	1.05
November 2001	1.05
December 2001	1.02
January 2002	1.04
February 2002	1.03
March 2002	1.00
April 2002	1.04
May 2002	1.04
June 2002	1.02
July 2002	1.06
August 2002	1.02
September 2002	1.03
October 2002	1.01
November 2002	1.03
December 2002	1.03
January 2003	1.04
February 2003	1.00
March 2003	0.95
April 2003	0.99
May 2003	0.98
June 2003	0.99
July 2003	0.97
August 2003	0.99
September 2003	1.01
October 2003	1.03
November 2003	0.99
December 2003	1.04
January 2004	1.03
February 2004	1.00
March 2004	1.07
April 2004	1.05
May 2004	1.04
June 2004	1.03
July 2004	1.02
August 2004	1.05
September 2004	1.04
October 2004	1.06
November 2004	1.06
December 2004	1.06
January 2005	1.10
February 2005	1.07
March 2005	1.07
April 2005	1.06
May 2005	1.06
June 2005	1.07
July 2005	1.06
August 2005	1.09
September 2005	1.08
October 2005	1.03
November 2005	1.06
December 2005	1.04
January 2006	1.02
February 2006	1.08
March 2006	1.06
April 2006	1.03
May 2006	1.08
June 2006	1.06
July 2006	1.08
August 2006	1.04
September 2006	1.05
October 2006	1.05
November 2006	1.08
December 2006	1.05
January 2007	1.03
February 2007	1.03
March 2007	1.05
April 2007	1.03
May 2007	1.05
June 2007	1.04
July 2007	1.02
August 2007	1.02
September 2007	1.02
October 2007	1.04
November 2007	1.02
December 2007	0.99
January 2008	0.98
February 2008	0.99
March 2008	0.98
April 2008	0.99
May 2008	0.96
June 2008	0.98
July 2008	0.94
August 2008	0.94
September 2008	0.91
October 2008	0.91
November 2008	0.85
December 2008	0.89
January 2009	0.89
February 2009	0.86
March 2009	0.83
April 2009	0.85
May 2009	0.84
June 2009	0.82
July 2009	0.85
August 2009	0.84
September 2009	0.86
October 2009	0.84
November 2009	0.87
December 2009	0.84
January 2010	0.86
February 2010	0.84
March 2010	0.88
April 2010	0.87
May 2010	0.88
June 2010	0.88
July 2010	0.89
August 2010	0.87
September 2010	0.87

Note: From Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2010), using JOLTS data. JOLTS data begin in December 2000. Scaled so that average value is equal to one over the sample period.

Top-right panel
Recruiting Intensity

Low recruiting intensity accounts for 1.4% of $$ U_{t}$$
Rise could be structural or cyclical

Bottom panel
Actual vs. Counterfactual Unemployment Rate, Holding Recruiting Intensity Constant

Percent of Labor Force
Period	Actual Unemployment Rate	Rate Predicted from Time-Invariant Recruiting Intensity
January 2001	4.26	4.81
February 2001	4.31	4.84
March 2001	4.34	5.08
April 2001	4.44	4.90
May 2001	4.42	4.91
June 2001	4.60	4.93
July 2001	4.66	5.01
August 2001	5.00	5.33
September 2001	5.05	5.34
October 2001	5.43	5.73
November 2001	5.65	5.92
December 2001	5.82	5.92
January 2002	5.79	6.01
February 2002	5.78	5.96
March 2002	5.85	5.88
April 2002	6.04	6.30
May 2002	5.89	6.13
June 2002	5.90	6.03
July 2002	5.89	6.27
August 2002	5.83	5.97
September 2002	5.77	5.92
October 2002	5.82	5.88
November 2002	5.97	6.18
December 2002	6.06	6.25
January 2003	5.94	6.17
February 2003	6.00	5.99
March 2003	5.98	5.71
April 2003	6.14	6.07
May 2003	6.22	6.08
June 2003	6.41	6.33
July 2003	6.26	6.10
August 2003	6.18	6.10
September 2003	6.19	6.25
October 2003	6.05	6.25
November 2003	5.92	5.87
December 2003	5.76	5.97
January 2004	5.79	5.94
February 2004	5.66	5.64
March 2004	5.87	6.31
April 2004	5.66	5.94
May 2004	5.68	5.88
June 2004	5.71	5.86
July 2004	5.60	5.69
August 2004	5.50	5.77
September 2004	5.47	5.71
October 2004	5.54	5.85
November 2004	5.44	5.76
December 2004	5.44	5.78
January 2005	5.34	5.87
February 2005	5.46	5.83
March 2005	5.30	5.66
April 2005	5.23	5.57
May 2005	5.21	5.54
June 2005	5.12	5.49
July 2005	5.03	5.34
August 2005	4.98	5.41
September 2005	5.12	5.53
October 2005	5.05	5.20
November 2005	5.12	5.44
December 2005	4.92	5.12
January 2006	4.77	4.89
February 2006	4.84	5.21
March 2006	4.76	5.05
April 2006	4.79	4.95
May 2006	4.69	5.08
June 2006	4.69	4.99
July 2006	4.80	5.18
August 2006	4.75	4.96
September 2006	4.58	4.82
October 2006	4.49	4.72
November 2006	4.58	4.94
December 2006	4.51	4.72
January 2007	4.70	4.85
February 2007	4.58	4.70
March 2007	4.45	4.70
April 2007	4.55	4.70
May 2007	4.49	4.70
June 2007	4.62	4.78
July 2007	4.71	4.79
August 2007	4.71	4.81
September 2007	4.76	4.84
October 2007	4.81	4.99
November 2007	4.80	4.90
December 2007	5.07	5.02
January 2008	5.02	4.92
February 2008	4.91	4.84
March 2008	5.14	5.03
April 2008	5.03	4.97
May 2008	5.53	5.30
June 2008	5.64	5.50
July 2008	5.86	5.50
August 2008	6.25	5.87
September 2008	6.30	5.73
October 2008	6.68	6.06
November 2008	6.99	5.92
December 2008	7.50	6.66
January 2009	7.86	6.99
February 2009	8.37	7.19
March 2009	8.78	7.32
April 2009	9.09	7.75
May 2009	9.52	7.95
June 2009	9.66	7.90
July 2009	9.57	8.14
August 2009	9.87	8.26
September 2009	10.01	8.59
October 2009	10.32	8.68
November 2009	10.15	8.79
December 2009	10.15	8.57
January 2010	9.86	8.44
February 2010	9.86	8.31
March 2010	9.92	8.77
April 2010	10.04	8.78
May 2010	9.89	8.69
June 2010	9.67	8.50
July 2010	9.64	8.55
August 2010	9.76	8.45
September 2010	9.68	8.43

Note: From Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2010), using JOLTS and CPS data.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 7
General Measures of Mismatch

Top panel
Unemployment Outflow Rates by Industry

Rate
Period	Total	Construction	Information	Durable Goods	Financial	Education and Health
February 2000	0.588	ND	0.577	0.613	0.490	0.643
March 2000	0.592	0.506	0.510	0.635	0.576	0.627
April 2000	0.598	0.652	0.640	0.537	0.581	0.657
May 2000	0.593	0.685	0.635	0.546	0.543	0.611
June 2000	0.603	0.701	0.700	0.566	0.552	0.627
July 2000	0.602	0.689	0.656	0.559	0.578	0.634
August 2000	0.598	0.691	0.644	0.582	0.548	0.605
September 2000	0.606	0.720	0.662	0.599	0.578	0.649
October 2000	0.607	0.713	0.700	0.605	0.564	0.656
November 2000	0.604	0.705	0.657	0.590	0.570	0.657
December 2000	0.598	0.703	0.623	0.574	0.566	0.660
January 2001	0.593	0.668	0.602	0.551	0.540	0.630
February 2001	0.597	0.671	0.642	0.545	0.543	0.641
March 2001	0.588	0.668	0.615	0.527	0.535	0.626
April 2001	0.584	0.640	0.623	0.559	0.520	0.638
May 2001	0.588	0.654	0.620	0.543	0.555	0.649
June 2001	0.580	0.668	0.572	0.530	0.534	0.649
July 2001	0.575	0.669	0.570	0.520	0.501	0.640
August 2001	0.569	0.657	0.560	0.505	0.529	0.639
September 2001	0.555	0.649	0.516	0.485	0.499	0.637
October 2001	0.540	0.640	0.458	0.460	0.497	0.620
November 2001	0.530	0.616	0.460	0.461	0.473	0.604
December 2001	0.517	0.597	0.452	0.448	0.479	0.588
January 2002	0.513	0.589	0.444	0.443	0.482	0.600
February 2002	0.500	0.594	0.381	0.428	0.462	0.573
March 2002	0.493	0.578	0.402	0.415	0.453	0.575
April 2002	0.476	0.571	0.349	0.378	0.442	0.553
May 2002	0.464	0.559	0.329	0.383	0.389	0.543
June 2002	0.448	0.530	0.327	0.366	0.380	0.532
July 2002	0.442	0.519	0.314	0.369	0.386	0.518
August 2002	0.438	0.511	0.293	0.366	0.354	0.522
September 2002	0.432	0.485	0.310	0.359	0.358	0.504
October 2002	0.427	0.476	0.318	0.353	0.349	0.507
November 2002	0.423	0.483	0.314	0.333	0.342	0.505
December 2002	0.419	0.471	0.308	0.323	0.319	0.493
January 2003	0.415	0.476	0.313	0.322	0.331	0.489
February 2003	0.410	0.466	0.288	0.324	0.334	0.482
March 2003	0.408	0.473	0.295	0.328	0.309	0.485
April 2003	0.405	0.475	0.295	0.321	0.314	0.461
May 2003	0.402	0.452	0.293	0.310	0.320	0.470
June 2003	0.398	0.438	0.292	0.305	0.322	0.457
July 2003	0.394	0.435	0.298	0.297	0.332	0.463
August 2003	0.390	0.445	0.306	0.279	0.322	0.453
September 2003	0.384	0.447	0.283	0.268	0.319	0.444
October 2003	0.384	0.458	0.298	0.275	0.326	0.438
November 2003	0.383	0.467	0.265	0.278	0.329	0.426
December 2003	0.384	0.475	0.289	0.292	0.329	0.432
January 2004	0.382	0.481	0.280	0.293	0.287	0.425
February 2004	0.381	0.471	0.325	0.278	0.301	0.432
March 2004	0.377	0.463	0.305	0.276	0.307	0.416
April 2004	0.384	0.466	0.321	0.289	0.310	0.431
May 2004	0.385	0.483	0.326	0.291	0.316	0.424
June 2004	0.389	0.495	0.343	0.302	0.319	0.420
July 2004	0.392	0.502	0.347	0.302	0.312	0.415
August 2004	0.395	0.497	0.363	0.317	0.331	0.427
September 2004	0.402	0.490	0.379	0.330	0.315	0.430
October 2004	0.403	0.479	0.344	0.333	0.319	0.437
November 2004	0.405	0.477	0.371	0.329	0.337	0.440
December 2004	0.408	0.477	0.375	0.331	0.332	0.437
January 2005	0.413	0.476	0.378	0.336	0.387	0.442
February 2005	0.413	0.482	0.346	0.349	0.370	0.439
March 2005	0.421	0.489	0.365	0.353	0.386	0.444
April 2005	0.420	0.494	0.341	0.374	0.392	0.436
May 2005	0.423	0.484	0.353	0.379	0.395	0.425
June 2005	0.430	0.485	0.327	0.381	0.396	0.445
July 2005	0.429	0.489	0.331	0.372	0.392	0.455
August 2005	0.430	0.487	0.315	0.377	0.398	0.453
September 2005	0.429	0.503	0.313	0.372	0.425	0.447
October 2005	0.435	0.539	0.324	0.361	0.434	0.446
November 2005	0.438	0.531	0.333	0.369	0.424	0.448
December 2005	0.443	0.519	0.349	0.370	0.450	0.469
January 2006	0.447	0.537	0.358	0.377	0.415	0.458
February 2006	0.449	0.540	0.392	0.376	0.418	0.460
March 2006	0.455	0.537	0.431	0.389	0.405	0.461
April 2006	0.455	0.535	0.420	0.374	0.399	0.465
May 2006	0.457	0.529	0.393	0.390	0.392	0.478
June 2006	0.461	0.546	0.432	0.405	0.403	0.480
July 2006	0.462	0.535	0.444	0.424	0.406	0.463
August 2006	0.464	0.541	0.428	0.428	0.416	0.461
September 2006	0.470	0.543	0.414	0.452	0.407	0.473
October 2006	0.475	0.543	0.447	0.470	0.400	0.467
November 2006	0.473	0.544	0.437	0.467	0.394	0.474
December 2006	0.475	0.564	0.438	0.475	0.387	0.459
January 2007	0.470	0.548	0.425	0.455	0.409	0.466
February 2007	0.475	0.550	0.412	0.458	0.413	0.480
March 2007	0.472	0.557	0.402	0.452	0.424	0.483
April 2007	0.470	0.545	0.454	0.443	0.446	0.465
May 2007	0.468	0.549	0.448	0.428	0.439	0.460
June 2007	0.462	0.529	0.432	0.418	0.424	0.456
July 2007	0.458	0.528	0.406	0.416	0.420	0.455
August 2007	0.458	0.528	0.412	0.411	0.384	0.463
September 2007	0.450	0.510	0.426	0.383	0.394	0.452
October 2007	0.442	0.485	0.404	0.369	0.386	0.461
November 2007	0.445	0.489	0.401	0.381	0.419	0.466
December 2007	0.435	0.469	0.382	0.370	0.397	0.465
January 2008	0.437	0.476	0.372	0.387	0.389	0.462
February 2008	0.435	0.472	0.359	0.380	0.384	0.451
March 2008	0.430	0.454	0.334	0.370	0.368	0.448
April 2008	0.429	0.453	0.295	0.371	0.339	0.466
May 2008	0.424	0.466	0.330	0.369	0.342	0.463
June 2008	0.417	0.467	0.332	0.362	0.354	0.447
July 2008	0.412	0.459	0.348	0.350	0.341	0.445
August 2008	0.404	0.454	0.364	0.330	0.338	0.428
September 2008	0.397	0.442	0.346	0.324	0.315	0.421
October 2008	0.387	0.423	0.344	0.339	0.299	0.400
November 2008	0.379	0.412	0.357	0.322	0.256	0.386
December 2008	0.368	0.414	0.327	0.313	0.250	0.378
January 2009	0.358	0.397	0.339	0.290	0.240	0.383
February 2009	0.341	0.381	0.338	0.282	0.224	0.373
March 2009	0.330	0.378	0.305	0.273	0.218	0.356
April 2009	0.317	0.370	0.285	0.269	0.222	0.340
May 2009	0.300	0.328	0.264	0.252	0.222	0.325
June 2009	0.287	0.310	0.227	0.237	0.209	0.302
July 2009	0.278	0.293	0.197	0.231	0.204	0.300
August 2009	0.265	0.276	0.187	0.230	0.207	0.292
September 2009	0.252	0.270	0.190	0.223	0.181	0.275
October 2009	0.242	0.255	0.200	0.196	0.180	0.273
November 2009	0.234	0.243	0.192	0.193	0.182	0.267
December 2009	0.229	0.228	0.210	0.190	0.175	0.252
January 2010	0.223	0.229	0.188	0.189	0.172	0.241
February 2010	0.221	0.223	0.186	0.186	0.166	0.233
March 2010	0.217	0.220	0.191	0.176	0.160	0.241
April 2010	0.212	0.217	0.200	0.175	0.145	0.240
May 2010	0.214	0.219	0.186	0.175	0.141	0.233
June 2010	0.215	0.209	0.197	0.175	0.132	0.241
July 2010	0.211	0.222	0.190	0.167	0.140	0.235
August 2010	0.210	0.216	0.189	0.162	0.134	0.228
September 2010	0.212	0.216	0.186	0.166	0.153	0.235
October 2010	0.211	0.220	0.164	0.163	0.149	0.233
November 2010	0.208	0.216	0.167	0.158	0.145	0.228

Note: Elsby, Hobijn, Şahin (2010), CPS. Series 12-Month Moving Average.

Bottom panel
Unemployment Rate of Recent College Graduates

Percent
Period	<25 College Graduates	All
1976:Q1	7.53	7.73
1976:Q2	8.53	7.57
1976:Q3	7.95	7.73
1976:Q4	8.05	7.77
1977:Q1	10.36	7.50
1977:Q2	8.39	7.13
1977:Q3	7.51	6.90
1977:Q4	7.97	6.67
1978:Q1	7.45	6.33
1978:Q2	6.22	6.00
1978:Q3	7.48	6.03
1978:Q4	5.81	5.90
1979:Q1	5.35	5.87
1979:Q2	5.38	5.70
1979:Q3	5.72	5.87
1979:Q4	5.65	5.97
1980:Q1	5.36	6.30
1980:Q2	6.29	7.33
1980:Q3	5.76	7.67
1980:Q4	6.25	7.40
1981:Q1	7.10	7.43
1981:Q2	7.31	7.40
1981:Q3	6.67	7.40
1981:Q4	6.82	8.23
1982:Q1	7.15	8.83
1982:Q2	7.46	9.43
1982:Q3	8.21	9.90
1982:Q4	8.95	10.67
1983:Q1	8.46	10.37
1983:Q2	7.62	10.13
1983:Q3	7.53	9.37
1983:Q4	7.98	8.53
1984:Q1	6.77	7.87
1984:Q2	6.31	7.43
1984:Q3	6.82	7.43
1984:Q4	5.99	7.30
1985:Q1	6.12	7.23
1985:Q2	5.97	7.30
1985:Q3	5.78	7.20
1985:Q4	5.38	7.03
1986:Q1	5.52	7.03
1986:Q2	6.71	7.17
1986:Q3	5.99	6.97
1986:Q4	6.17	6.83
1987:Q1	5.98	6.60
1987:Q2	6.35	6.27
1987:Q3	5.71	6.00
1987:Q4	4.87	5.83
1988:Q1	5.27	5.70
1988:Q2	4.51	5.47
1988:Q3	4.47	5.47
1988:Q4	4.57	5.33
1989:Q1	4.71	5.20
1989:Q2	4.69	5.23
1989:Q3	4.61	5.23
1989:Q4	6.04	5.37
1990:Q1	3.91	5.30
1990:Q2	4.83	5.33
1990:Q3	5.55	5.70
1990:Q4	5.53	6.13
1991:Q1	6.68	6.60
1991:Q2	6.82	6.83
1991:Q3	6.48	6.87
1991:Q4	7.97	7.10
1992:Q1	6.52	7.37
1992:Q2	6.42	7.60
1992:Q3	6.65	7.63
1992:Q4	6.70	7.37
1993:Q1	7.02	7.13
1993:Q2	5.60	7.07
1993:Q3	5.37	6.80
1993:Q4	5.65	6.63
1994:Q1	4.79	6.57
1994:Q2	5.18	6.20
1994:Q3	5.54	6.00
1994:Q4	5.18	5.63
1995:Q1	5.71	5.47
1995:Q2	5.89	5.67
1995:Q3	5.24	5.67
1995:Q4	6.23	5.57
1996:Q1	5.95	5.53
1996:Q2	6.03	5.50
1996:Q3	5.64	5.27
1996:Q4	4.67	5.33
1997:Q1	4.86	5.23
1997:Q2	3.38	5.00
1997:Q3	3.51	4.87
1997:Q4	3.25	4.67
1998:Q1	3.26	4.63
1998:Q2	4.10	4.40
1998:Q3	4.79	4.53
1998:Q4	3.79	4.43
1999:Q1	3.79	4.30
1999:Q2	4.97	4.27
1999:Q3	4.90	4.23
1999:Q4	5.61	4.07
2000:Q1	5.09	4.03
2000:Q2	4.93	3.93
2000:Q3	3.57	4.00
2000:Q4	4.21	3.90
2001:Q1	5.18	4.23
2001:Q2	4.87	4.40
2001:Q3	6.67	4.83
2001:Q4	5.84	5.50
2002:Q1	5.34	5.70
2002:Q2	5.59	5.83
2002:Q3	6.09	5.73
2002:Q4	6.00	5.87
2003:Q1	6.24	5.87
2003:Q2	6.28	6.13
2003:Q3	5.70	6.13
2003:Q4	6.29	5.83
2004:Q1	6.28	5.70
2004:Q2	5.93	5.60
2004:Q3	4.39	5.43
2004:Q4	6.77	5.43
2005:Q1	5.81	5.30
2005:Q2	4.82	5.10
2005:Q3	5.16	4.97
2005:Q4	4.34	4.97
2006:Q1	4.46	4.73
2006:Q2	4.95	4.63
2006:Q3	5.15	4.63
2006:Q4	6.19	4.43
2007:Q1	4.41	4.50
2007:Q2	5.78	4.50
2007:Q3	5.87	4.63
2007:Q4	6.15	4.80
2008:Q1	5.11	4.97
2008:Q2	5.37	5.30
2008:Q3	6.10	6.03
2008:Q4	6.85	6.97
2009:Q1	8.76	8.17
2009:Q2	9.18	9.27
2009:Q3	8.61	9.63
2009:Q4	9.18	10.03
2010:Q1	9.14	9.70
2010:Q2	9.11	9.70
2010:Q3	8.52	9.57

Note: Aaronson, Barlevy, Mazumder (2011), CPS.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 8
Skill Mismatch

Top-left panel
Mismatch Indices by Industry

Indices
Period	M_u	M_h
June 2001	0.2263	0.0330
July 2001	0.2295	0.0352
August 2001	0.2392	0.0406
September 2001	0.2362	0.0412
October 2001	0.2466	0.0444
November 2001	0.2404	0.0415
December 2001	0.2450	0.0444
January 2002	0.2466	0.0458
February 2002	0.2447	0.0455
March 2002	0.2535	0.0465
April 2002	0.2533	0.0464
May 2002	0.2570	0.0461
June 2002	0.2478	0.0441
July 2002	0.2418	0.0414
August 2002	0.2439	0.0429
September 2002	0.2476	0.0437
October 2002	0.2576	0.0449
November 2002	0.2651	0.0471
December 2002	0.2693	0.0484
January 2003	0.2747	0.0501
February 2003	0.2731	0.0482
March 2003	0.2672	0.0465
April 2003	0.2497	0.0427
May 2003	0.2451	0.0431
June 2003	0.2470	0.0420
July 2003	0.2579	0.0425
August 2003	0.2557	0.0395
September 2003	0.2528	0.0403
October 2003	0.2404	0.0393
November 2003	0.2252	0.0367
December 2003	0.2162	0.0325
January 2004	0.2173	0.0306
February 2004	0.2236	0.0316
March 2004	0.2190	0.0312
April 2004	0.2216	0.0322
May 2004	0.2180	0.0306
June 2004	0.2273	0.0327
July 2004	0.2239	0.0325
August 2004	0.2179	0.0318
September 2004	0.2082	0.0299
October 2004	0.2037	0.0286
November 2004	0.2099	0.0295
December 2004	0.2125	0.0289
January 2005	0.2054	0.0278
February 2005	0.2006	0.0274
March 2005	0.1996	0.0277
April 2005	0.1989	0.0276
May 2005	0.1976	0.0262
June 2005	0.1959	0.0261
July 2005	0.2020	0.0261
August 2005	0.2078	0.0275
September 2005	0.2073	0.0264
October 2005	0.2081	0.0269
November 2005	0.1932	0.0233
December 2005	0.1994	0.0252
January 2006	0.2038	0.0270
February 2006	0.2207	0.0320
March 2006	0.2110	0.0293
April 2006	0.2032	0.0265
May 2006	0.1987	0.0247
June 2006	0.2030	0.0255
July 2006	0.2012	0.0256
August 2006	0.2042	0.0261
September 2006	0.2121	0.0282
October 2006	0.2155	0.0289
November 2006	0.2223	0.0310
December 2006	0.2093	0.0301
January 2007	0.2033	0.0281
February 2007	0.1890	0.0244
March 2007	0.1998	0.0251
April 2007	0.2135	0.0298
May 2007	0.2172	0.0308
June 2007	0.2139	0.0305
July 2007	0.2047	0.0286
August 2007	0.2048	0.0294
September 2007	0.2096	0.0309
October 2007	0.2188	0.0329
November 2007	0.2171	0.0331
December 2007	0.2218	0.0359
January 2008	0.2284	0.0383
February 2008	0.2484	0.0428
March 2008	0.2496	0.0430
April 2008	0.2416	0.0426
May 2008	0.2293	0.0391
June 2008	0.2345	0.0389
July 2008	0.2413	0.0384
August 2008	0.2509	0.0416
September 2008	0.2541	0.0426
October 2008	0.2547	0.0460
November 2008	0.2595	0.0506
December 2008	0.2668	0.0544
January 2009	0.2920	0.0637
February 2009	0.3005	0.0664
March 2009	0.3073	0.0708
April 2009	0.3164	0.0721
May 2009	0.3183	0.0748
June 2009	0.3120	0.0737
July 2009	0.3055	0.0724
August 2009	0.3046	0.0695
September 2009	0.2996	0.0669
October 2009	0.2981	0.0637
November 2009	0.3024	0.0631
December 2009	0.3084	0.0626
January 2010	0.3050	0.0615
February 2010	0.2816	0.0558
March 2010	0.2689	0.0514
April 2010	0.2597	0.0470
May 2010	0.2690	0.0461
June 2010	0.2684	0.0486
July 2010	0.2552	0.0446
August 2010	0.2584	0.0470
September 2010	0.2646	0.0462
October 2010	0.2773	0.0503
November 2010	0.2767	0.0488

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), JOLTS, CPS, Series 3-Month Moving Average.

Top-right panel
Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Industry)

Rate
Period	Unemployment Rate	Counterfactual Unemployment	Difference
June 2001	4.523	4.232	0.291
July 2001	4.583	4.275	0.308
August 2001	4.915	4.589	0.326
September 2001	4.960	4.584	0.376
October 2001	5.340	4.957	0.383
November 2001	5.548	5.125	0.424
December 2001	5.723	5.279	0.444
January 2002	5.687	5.212	0.474
February 2002	5.679	5.183	0.496
March 2002	5.748	5.241	0.506
April 2002	5.942	5.410	0.532
May 2002	5.795	5.241	0.554
June 2002	5.796	5.246	0.551
July 2002	5.794	5.234	0.560
August 2002	5.727	5.167	0.559
September 2002	5.669	5.102	0.567
October 2002	5.717	5.142	0.574
November 2002	5.874	5.290	0.585
December 2002	5.956	5.347	0.609
January 2003	5.838	5.222	0.616
February 2003	5.899	5.274	0.625
March 2003	5.881	5.251	0.631
April 2003	6.037	5.406	0.630
May 2003	6.114	5.488	0.626
June 2003	6.301	5.661	0.640
July 2003	6.152	5.512	0.639
August 2003	6.075	5.446	0.628
September 2003	6.088	5.466	0.622
October 2003	5.952	5.328	0.624
November 2003	5.834	5.229	0.605
December 2003	5.668	5.085	0.584
January 2004	5.700	5.135	0.565
February 2004	5.567	5.015	0.552
March 2004	5.778	5.235	0.544
April 2004	5.564	5.033	0.530
May 2004	5.584	5.065	0.519
June 2004	5.619	5.112	0.507
July 2004	5.509	5.002	0.507
August 2004	5.415	4.918	0.496
September 2004	5.377	4.899	0.478
October 2004	5.454	4.983	0.472
November 2004	5.354	4.891	0.462
December 2004	5.359	4.904	0.454
January 2005	5.258	4.815	0.444
February 2005	5.379	4.947	0.432
March 2005	5.214	4.785	0.429
April 2005	5.152	4.735	0.417
May 2005	5.126	4.721	0.405
June 2005	5.042	4.647	0.394
July 2005	4.956	4.567	0.389
August 2005	4.904	4.526	0.378
September 2005	5.037	4.658	0.379
October 2005	4.969	4.597	0.372
November 2005	5.042	4.673	0.369
December 2005	4.852	4.504	0.348
January 2006	4.703	4.351	0.352
February 2006	4.769	4.415	0.354
March 2006	4.689	4.329	0.361
April 2006	4.719	4.374	0.345
May 2006	4.620	4.281	0.340
June 2006	4.626	4.288	0.337
July 2006	4.740	4.406	0.334
August 2006	4.674	4.345	0.329
September 2006	4.515	4.184	0.330
October 2006	4.425	4.094	0.330
November 2006	4.509	4.185	0.325
December 2006	4.427	4.088	0.340
January 2007	4.637	4.301	0.335
February 2007	4.511	4.186	0.325
March 2007	4.391	4.074	0.318
April 2007	4.484	4.160	0.324
May 2007	4.432	4.099	0.333
June 2007	4.561	4.233	0.328
July 2007	4.672	4.335	0.337
August 2007	4.638	4.301	0.337
September 2007	4.687	4.349	0.338
October 2007	4.747	4.396	0.351
November 2007	4.720	4.363	0.357
December 2007	4.979	4.620	0.359
January 2008	4.968	4.580	0.388
February 2008	4.844	4.445	0.399
March 2008	5.055	4.640	0.415
April 2008	4.946	4.512	0.434
May 2008	5.442	4.999	0.443
June 2008	5.567	5.113	0.454
July 2008	5.797	5.324	0.473
August 2008	6.136	5.648	0.488
September 2008	6.181	5.670	0.511
October 2008	6.567	6.036	0.531
November 2008	6.824	6.256	0.568
December 2008	7.334	6.727	0.607
January 2009	7.733	7.114	0.618
February 2009	8.234	7.514	0.721
March 2009	8.634	7.833	0.801
April 2009	8.930	8.049	0.881
May 2009	9.369	8.468	0.901
June 2009	9.512	8.584	0.928
July 2009	9.416	8.485	0.931
August 2009	9.709	8.628	1.081
September 2009	9.848	8.755	1.093
October 2009	10.147	9.044	1.103
November 2009	9.979	8.742	1.238
December 2009	9.975	8.771	1.204
January 2010	9.687	8.510	1.176
February 2010	9.687	8.497	1.190
March 2010	9.749	8.550	1.199
April 2010	9.863	8.654	1.209
May 2010	9.698	8.505	1.193
June 2010	9.512	8.371	1.140
July 2010	9.507	8.403	1.104
August 2010	9.643	8.538	1.105
September 2010	9.579	8.466	1.113
October 2010	9.644	8.564	1.080
November 2010	9.817	8.670	1.148

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), JOLTS, CPS.

Bottom-left panel
Mismatch Indices by Occupation

Indices
Period	M_u	M_h
July 2005	0.365	0.126
August 2005	0.368	0.130
September 2005	0.372	0.132
October 2005	0.374	0.133
November 2005	0.373	0.136
December 2005	0.373	0.135
January 2006	0.375	0.134
February 2006	0.374	0.129
March 2006	0.368	0.125
April 2006	0.361	0.124
May 2006	0.358	0.124
June 2006	0.357	0.125
July 2006	0.355	0.124
August 2006	0.360	0.127
September 2006	0.359	0.128
October 2006	0.365	0.130
November 2006	0.366	0.130
December 2006	0.372	0.131
January 2007	0.370	0.129
February 2007	0.368	0.131
March 2007	0.369	0.137
April 2007	0.375	0.142
May 2007	0.380	0.144
June 2007	0.382	0.143
July 2007	0.383	0.142
August 2007	0.378	0.139
September 2007	0.379	0.138
October 2007	0.376	0.137
November 2007	0.373	0.137
December 2007	0.368	0.134
January 2008	0.369	0.137
February 2008	0.375	0.138
March 2008	0.381	0.143
April 2008	0.381	0.144
May 2008	0.381	0.144
June 2008	0.380	0.142
July 2008	0.382	0.142
August 2008	0.377	0.139
September 2008	0.375	0.140
October 2008	0.372	0.137
November 2008	0.378	0.140
December 2008	0.382	0.141
January 2009	0.392	0.144
February 2009	0.394	0.144
March 2009	0.392	0.142
April 2009	0.386	0.139
May 2009	0.383	0.140
June 2009	0.384	0.141
July 2009	0.385	0.139
August 2009	0.383	0.138
September 2009	0.384	0.138
October 2009	0.388	0.143
November 2009	0.394	0.143
December 2009	0.395	0.141
January 2010	0.385	0.135
February 2010	0.372	0.130
March 2010	0.367	0.131
April 2010	0.366	0.131
May 2010	0.368	0.131
June 2010	0.365	0.126
July 2010	0.360	0.124
August 2010	0.360	0.124
September 2010	0.357	0.125
October 2010	0.355	0.124
November 2010	0.348	0.122

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series, CPS. Series 3-Month Moving Average.

Bottom-right panel
Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Occupation)

Rate
Period	Unemployment Rate	Counterfactual Unemployment	Difference
May 2005	5.126	4.335	0.791
June 2005	5.042	4.336	0.706
July 2005	4.956	4.096	0.861
August 2005	4.904	3.979	0.925
September 2005	5.037	4.024	1.013
October 2005	4.969	3.873	1.096
November 2005	5.042	3.886	1.156
December 2005	4.852	3.628	1.223
January 2006	4.700	3.465	1.235
February 2006	4.770	3.513	1.257
March 2006	4.690	3.406	1.284
April 2006	4.719	3.438	1.282
May 2006	4.618	3.315	1.303
June 2006	4.623	3.319	1.304
July 2006	4.726	3.406	1.320
August 2006	4.677	3.343	1.334
September 2006	4.519	3.173	1.346
October 2006	4.426	3.107	1.319
November 2006	4.518	3.181	1.337
December 2006	4.443	3.092	1.350
January 2007	4.627	3.276	1.351
February 2007	4.510	3.137	1.373
March 2007	4.393	3.025	1.368
April 2007	4.488	3.093	1.394
May 2007	4.430	3.018	1.412
June 2007	4.552	3.124	1.427
July 2007	4.648	3.188	1.460
August 2007	4.645	3.168	1.476
September 2007	4.694	3.222	1.472
October 2007	4.749	3.248	1.501
November 2007	4.737	3.242	1.495
December 2007	5.002	3.482	1.520
January 2008	4.952	3.412	1.540
February 2008	4.841	3.296	1.545
March 2008	5.062	3.506	1.556
April 2008	4.957	3.360	1.597
May 2008	5.438	3.817	1.621
June 2008	5.547	3.854	1.693
July 2008	5.761	4.049	1.712
August 2008	6.147	4.367	1.780
September 2008	6.190	4.379	1.811
October 2008	6.569	4.719	1.850
November 2008	6.871	4.951	1.920
December 2008	7.375	5.400	1.974
January 2009	7.733	5.659	2.074
February 2009	8.234	6.092	2.142
March 2009	8.634	6.417	2.217
April 2009	8.930	6.667	2.263
May 2009	9.369	7.051	2.318
June 2009	9.512	7.113	2.400
July 2009	9.416	6.966	2.451
August 2009	9.709	7.237	2.472
September 2009	9.848	7.314	2.534
October 2009	10.147	7.571	2.576
November 2009	9.979	7.328	2.651
December 2009	9.975	7.297	2.678
January 2010	9.687	6.996	2.691
February 2010	9.687	7.016	2.671
March 2010	9.749	7.086	2.663
April 2010	9.863	7.189	2.674
May 2010	9.698	7.010	2.688
June 2010	9.512	6.830	2.681
July 2010	9.507	6.846	2.661
August 2010	9.643	6.997	2.646
September 2010	9.579	6.930	2.649
October 2010	9.644	6.997	2.647
November 2010	9.817	7.177	2.640

Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series, CPS.

Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Exhibit 9
House Lock and Geographic Mismatch

Top panel
Rates of Migration between States

Interstate Migration Rate (%)
Period	Published Data	Non-Imputed Data
1996	2.485	2.404
1997	2.429	2.287
1998	2.396	2.276
1999	2.805	2.307
2000	3.119	2.347
2001	2.816	2.047
2002	2.793	2.065
2003	2.700	1.955
2004	2.582	1.830
2005	2.591	1.928
2006	1.960	1.872
2007	1.661	1.648
2008	1.603	1.573
2009	1.568	1.560
2010	1.442	1.385

Note: Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl (2010), CPS.

Bottom panel
Average Unemployment Duration by 12-Month Change in State-Level House Price

Average Duration (in weeks)
Percent Change in House Prices	Owner	Renter
-32	22.428	16.168
-30	20.672	19.550
-28	24.501	22.370
-26	20.883	19.472
-24	21.865	20.210
-22	20.423	19.332
-20	22.297	23.296
-18	21.731	23.291
-16	22.253	21.048
-14	23.819	21.109
-12	23.967	22.303
-10	25.485	24.219
-8	24.863	24.072
-6	26.010	25.503
-4	25.213	24.650
-2	23.380	23.713
0	21.910	22.501
2	17.755	17.934
4	15.454	15.562
6	15.114	15.347
8	15.854	16.681
10	16.091	17.282
12	16.945	18.034
14	17.262	15.830
16	17.522	16.666
18	19.800	17.757
20	20.829	18.964
22	17.949	18.624
24	19.146	18.636
26	15.574	16.649
28	15.538	20.306
30	16.574	15.129
32	16.057	13.352

Note: Foote and Ryan (2011), CPS, FHFA.

Exhibit 10
Long-term Unemployment and Hysteresis

Top panel
Unemployment-to-Employment Outflow Rates by Unemployment Duration

Rate
Period	< 5 Weeks	5-14 Weeks	15-26 Weeks	> 27 Weeks
January 1977	0.307	0.232	0.190	0.146
February 1977	0.307	0.232	0.188	0.145
March 1977	0.311	0.234	0.194	0.145
April 1977	0.311	0.238	0.194	0.145
May 1977	0.312	0.239	0.195	0.145
June 1977	0.314	0.242	0.198	0.152
July 1977	0.313	0.239	0.196	0.153
August 1977	0.314	0.243	0.196	0.155
September 1977	0.316	0.243	0.194	0.155
October 1977	0.319	0.244	0.196	0.154
November 1977	0.320	0.244	0.198	0.152
December 1977	0.322	0.244	0.199	0.159
January 1978	0.329	0.250	0.202	0.167
February 1978	0.332	0.253	0.205	0.174
March 1978	0.329	0.251	0.204	0.172
April 1978	0.329	0.250	0.207	0.175
May 1978	0.332	0.251	0.209	0.173
June 1978	0.334	0.256	0.212	0.175
July 1978	0.331	0.257	0.216	0.173
August 1978	0.333	0.255	0.221	0.169
September 1978	0.338	0.258	0.220	0.169
October 1978	0.341	0.261	0.222	0.171
November 1978	0.344	0.266	0.224	0.179
December 1978	0.340	0.259	0.225	0.177
January 1979	0.336	0.257	0.222	0.172
February 1979	0.335	0.257	0.222	0.168
March 1979	0.336	0.261	0.221	0.168
April 1979	0.333	0.259	0.216	0.166
May 1979	0.334	0.259	0.218	0.172
June 1979	0.335	0.258	0.222	0.167
July 1979	0.337	0.262	0.220	0.163
August 1979	0.337	0.263	0.220	0.164
September 1979	0.334	0.263	0.223	0.163
October 1979	0.331	0.263	0.218	0.162
November 1979	0.331	0.262	0.219	0.158
December 1979	0.334	0.264	0.220	0.155
January 1980	0.332	0.260	0.218	0.152
February 1980	0.332	0.257	0.223	0.155
March 1980	0.332	0.253	0.220	0.156
April 1980	0.335	0.249	0.215	0.152
May 1980	0.333	0.248	0.214	0.147
June 1980	0.328	0.242	0.206	0.146
July 1980	0.326	0.237	0.204	0.147
August 1980	0.326	0.236	0.204	0.147
September 1980	0.322	0.235	0.201	0.147
October 1980	0.324	0.233	0.205	0.148
November 1980	0.321	0.230	0.205	0.146
December 1980	0.320	0.233	0.205	0.146
January 1981	0.321	0.235	0.207	0.146
February 1981	0.317	0.233	0.201	0.142
March 1981	0.317	0.236	0.200	0.141
April 1981	0.317	0.238	0.208	0.145
May 1981	0.313	0.239	0.202	0.143
June 1981	0.312	0.240	0.202	0.148
July 1981	0.312	0.243	0.207	0.152
August 1981	0.308	0.241	0.204	0.151
September 1981	0.307	0.238	0.203	0.148
October 1981	0.305	0.235	0.200	0.150
November 1981	0.304	0.234	0.198	0.149
December 1981	0.302	0.232	0.194	0.148
January 1982	0.302	0.229	0.192	0.150
February 1982	0.301	0.227	0.191	0.146
March 1982	0.299	0.223	0.190	0.146
April 1982	0.295	0.218	0.182	0.143
May 1982	0.295	0.215	0.184	0.142
June 1982	0.292	0.211	0.181	0.136
July 1982	0.290	0.206	0.174	0.134
August 1982	0.288	0.204	0.173	0.132
September 1982	0.287	0.203	0.171	0.131
October 1982	0.281	0.200	0.168	0.125
November 1982	0.277	0.196	0.163	0.122
December 1982	0.277	0.195	0.163	0.123
January 1983	0.276	0.193	0.162	0.122
February 1983	0.274	0.193	0.161	0.122
March 1983	0.273	0.191	0.161	0.121
April 1983	0.272	0.191	0.163	0.120
May 1983	0.269	0.192	0.163	0.120
June 1983	0.272	0.194	0.167	0.121
July 1983	0.269	0.197	0.168	0.121
August 1983	0.270	0.200	0.173	0.121
September 1983	0.271	0.202	0.177	0.123
October 1983	0.273	0.203	0.177	0.126
November 1983	0.277	0.207	0.183	0.129
December 1983	0.278	0.208	0.185	0.129
January 1984	0.279	0.211	0.191	0.133
February 1984	0.282	0.217	0.196	0.137
March 1984	0.283	0.219	0.201	0.141
April 1984	0.284	0.222	0.203	0.142
May 1984	0.288	0.223	0.206	0.145
June 1984	0.291	0.225	0.208	0.151
July 1984	0.295	0.227	0.207	0.150
August 1984	0.299	0.229	0.204	0.153
September 1984	0.297	0.230	0.199	0.154
October 1984	0.299	0.233	0.203	0.155
November 1984	0.301	0.235	0.202	0.154
December 1984	0.300	0.234	0.198	0.151
January 1985	0.301	0.235	0.197	0.150
February 1985	0.304	0.235	0.197	0.151
March 1985	0.308	0.237	0.196	0.150
April 1985	0.309	0.239	0.195	0.149
May 1985	0.310	0.242	0.200	0.151
June 1985	0.308	0.241	0.198	0.146
July 1985	0.307	0.240	0.203	0.147
August 1985	0.307	0.239	0.207	0.145
September 1985	0.309	0.240	0.215	0.146
October 1985	0.310	0.240	0.219	0.145
November 1985	0.310	0.240	0.222	0.144
December 1985	0.309	0.239	0.228	0.146
January 1986	0.312	0.244	0.229	0.146
February 1986	0.307	0.241	0.229	0.142
March 1986	0.303	0.241	0.232	0.141
April 1986	0.303	0.238	0.233	0.143
May 1986	0.305	0.237	0.231	0.140
June 1986	0.306	0.236	0.231	0.141
July 1986	0.306	0.232	0.230	0.140
August 1986	0.307	0.232	0.230	0.140
September 1986	0.305	0.230	0.225	0.139
October 1986	0.305	0.230	0.223	0.140
November 1986	0.306	0.230	0.219	0.141
December 1986	0.309	0.233	0.220	0.147
January 1987	0.309	0.230	0.219	0.148
February 1987	0.311	0.231	0.218	0.149
March 1987	0.312	0.231	0.215	0.151
April 1987	0.317	0.234	0.220	0.150
May 1987	0.318	0.234	0.216	0.154
June 1987	0.318	0.237	0.218	0.155
July 1987	0.323	0.244	0.220	0.158
August 1987	0.321	0.243	0.221	0.158
September 1987	0.326	0.245	0.223	0.159
October 1987	0.329	0.248	0.224	0.159
November 1987	0.327	0.250	0.223	0.163
December 1987	0.329	0.251	0.223	0.161
January 1988	0.329	0.250	0.220	0.160
February 1988	0.332	0.251	0.224	0.160
March 1988	0.333	0.252	0.222	0.159
April 1988	0.337	0.254	0.220	0.164
May 1988	0.336	0.258	0.220	0.160
June 1988	0.343	0.261	0.218	0.160
July 1988	0.342	0.258	0.219	0.163
August 1988	0.344	0.259	0.221	0.164
September 1988	0.348	0.263	0.224	0.163
October 1988	0.344	0.261	0.227	0.163
November 1988	0.345	0.259	0.226	0.164
December 1988	0.344	0.258	0.229	0.165
January 1989	0.342	0.258	0.234	0.166
February 1989	0.344	0.264	0.232	0.170
March 1989	0.348	0.265	0.233	0.171
April 1989	0.342	0.263	0.229	0.168
May 1989	0.344	0.263	0.235	0.169
June 1989	0.342	0.262	0.237	0.174
July 1989	0.340	0.263	0.233	0.169
August 1989	0.340	0.263	0.230	0.171
September 1989	0.343	0.261	0.228	0.179
October 1989	0.346	0.261	0.224	0.178
November 1989	0.354	0.266	0.229	0.176
December 1989	0.353	0.264	0.227	0.172
January 1990	0.354	0.265	0.226	0.175
February 1990	0.359	0.263	0.230	0.173
March 1990	0.355	0.265	0.231	0.171
April 1990	0.354	0.262	0.232	0.168
May 1990	0.353	0.259	0.230	0.170
June 1990	0.350	0.262	0.232	0.169
July 1990	0.348	0.261	0.233	0.170
August 1990	0.348	0.266	0.235	0.170
September 1990	0.338	0.261	0.230	0.159
October 1990	0.338	0.261	0.228	0.160
November 1990	0.334	0.259	0.224	0.159
December 1990	0.331	0.258	0.224	0.161
January 1991	0.328	0.257	0.220	0.154
February 1991	0.322	0.254	0.215	0.153
March 1991	0.321	0.248	0.215	0.155
April 1991	0.324	0.246	0.215	0.155
May 1991	0.325	0.246	0.213	0.151
June 1991	0.320	0.237	0.206	0.146
July 1991	0.319	0.234	0.204	0.147
August 1991	0.319	0.230	0.199	0.149
September 1991	0.320	0.232	0.201	0.153
October 1991	0.315	0.230	0.202	0.154
November 1991	0.314	0.227	0.201	0.155
December 1991	0.313	0.224	0.198	0.154
January 1992	0.318	0.225	0.200	0.156
February 1992	0.313	0.222	0.195	0.154
March 1992	0.312	0.221	0.192	0.152
April 1992	0.308	0.225	0.192	0.153
May 1992	0.305	0.224	0.189	0.153
June 1992	0.304	0.224	0.187	0.149
July 1992	0.308	0.226	0.187	0.151
August 1992	0.302	0.223	0.186	0.145
September 1992	0.299	0.221	0.181	0.145
October 1992	0.305	0.222	0.183	0.144
November 1992	0.303	0.219	0.186	0.141
December 1992	0.307	0.222	0.186	0.143
January 1993	0.303	0.219	0.183	0.144
February 1993	0.303	0.219	0.184	0.146
March 1993	0.301	0.222	0.184	0.148
April 1993	0.304	0.221	0.184	0.152
May 1993	0.305	0.221	0.183	0.155
June 1993	0.305	0.218	0.186	0.155
July 1993	0.305	0.225	0.187	0.153
August 1993	0.308	0.224	0.188	0.152
September 1993	0.313	0.227	0.188	0.151
October 1993	0.307	0.230	0.183	0.150
November 1993	0.308	0.232	0.179	0.148
December 1993	0.308	0.233	0.182	0.149
January 1994	0.313	0.238	0.185	0.149
February 1994	0.316	0.240	0.189	0.149
March 1994	0.321	0.241	0.191	0.152
April 1994	0.326	0.243	0.191	0.150
May 1994	0.330	0.248	0.194	0.152
June 1994	0.336	0.253	0.196	0.155
July 1994	0.336	0.250	0.193	0.154
August 1994	0.340	0.253	0.194	0.157
September 1994	0.343	0.256	0.199	0.158
October 1994	0.350	0.254	0.201	0.159
November 1994	0.352	0.255	0.205	0.163
December 1994	0.358	0.257	0.207	0.161
January 1995	0.358	0.258	0.205	0.161
February 1995	0.364	0.259	0.208	0.164
March 1995	0.368	0.260	0.212	0.159
April 1995	0.368	0.259	0.210	0.157
May 1995	0.367	0.256	0.210	0.154
June 1995	0.364	0.257	0.211	0.152
July 1995	0.364	0.257	0.216	0.153
August 1995	0.364	0.258	0.219	0.151
September 1995	0.361	0.252	0.221	0.149
October 1995	0.362	0.254	0.225	0.148
November 1995	0.365	0.256	0.223	0.149
December 1995	0.359	0.252	0.217	0.147
January 1996	0.360	0.252	0.212	0.145
February 1996	0.361	0.250	0.210	0.143
March 1996	0.358	0.252	0.202	0.144
April 1996	0.355	0.249	0.204	0.144
May 1996	0.359	0.254	0.207	0.144
June 1996	0.359	0.254	0.202	0.141
July 1996	0.362	0.249	0.200	0.140
August 1996	0.367	0.250	0.200	0.144
September 1996	0.369	0.253	0.199	0.142
October 1996	0.369	0.255	0.198	0.145
November 1996	0.369	0.256	0.199	0.144
December 1996	0.370	0.256	0.202	0.145
January 1997	0.371	0.258	0.208	0.145
February 1997	0.368	0.259	0.206	0.148
March 1997	0.369	0.259	0.210	0.150
April 1997	0.371	0.259	0.211	0.148
May 1997	0.373	0.258	0.212	0.155
June 1997	0.377	0.258	0.214	0.156
July 1997	0.378	0.262	0.213	0.159
August 1997	0.374	0.262	0.212	0.156
September 1997	0.372	0.260	0.213	0.154
October 1997	0.376	0.264	0.218	0.152
November 1997	0.374	0.262	0.220	0.152
December 1997	0.379	0.265	0.222	0.153
January 1998	0.380	0.262	0.220	0.154
February 1998	0.381	0.263	0.218	0.151
March 1998	0.379	0.264	0.223	0.154
April 1998	0.384	0.270	0.229	0.159
May 1998	0.380	0.267	0.225	0.157
June 1998	0.380	0.266	0.226	0.163
July 1998	0.381	0.269	0.234	0.162
August 1998	0.383	0.268	0.236	0.163
September 1998	0.387	0.271	0.235	0.167
October 1998	0.388	0.272	0.229	0.172
November 1998	0.386	0.275	0.227	0.176
December 1998	0.383	0.275	0.231	0.174
January 1999	0.383	0.275	0.232	0.178
February 1999	0.384	0.274	0.236	0.180
March 1999	0.390	0.276	0.238	0.174
April 1999	0.385	0.276	0.234	0.176
May 1999	0.387	0.277	0.236	0.172
June 1999	0.388	0.276	0.235	0.177
July 1999	0.389	0.275	0.231	0.182
August 1999	0.389	0.277	0.228	0.181
September 1999	0.390	0.282	0.231	0.188
October 1999	0.387	0.279	0.229	0.177
November 1999	0.394	0.277	0.233	0.176
December 1999	0.398	0.279	0.230	0.176
January 2000	0.401	0.284	0.235	0.176
February 2000	0.399	0.283	0.237	0.178
March 2000	0.398	0.287	0.237	0.181
April 2000	0.400	0.285	0.236	0.184
May 2000	0.397	0.285	0.238	0.185
June 2000	0.399	0.288	0.241	0.179
July 2000	0.397	0.286	0.236	0.177
August 2000	0.397	0.287	0.232	0.179
September 2000	0.400	0.286	0.229	0.179
October 2000	0.402	0.286	0.231	0.190
November 2000	0.401	0.287	0.229	0.193
December 2000	0.394	0.288	0.229	0.195
January 2001	0.391	0.286	0.225	0.193
February 2001	0.396	0.288	0.219	0.191
March 2001	0.394	0.281	0.216	0.189
April 2001	0.392	0.280	0.211	0.180
May 2001	0.396	0.282	0.207	0.180
June 2001	0.394	0.285	0.208	0.177
July 2001	0.393	0.279	0.209	0.172
August 2001	0.392	0.281	0.212	0.174
September 2001	0.386	0.276	0.209	0.168
October 2001	0.378	0.274	0.206	0.163
November 2001	0.374	0.272	0.204	0.160
December 2001	0.375	0.270	0.201	0.159
January 2002	0.371	0.265	0.200	0.158
February 2002	0.368	0.265	0.203	0.163
March 2002	0.364	0.264	0.200	0.164
April 2002	0.359	0.262	0.199	0.169
May 2002	0.356	0.258	0.197	0.166
June 2002	0.348	0.248	0.191	0.164
July 2002	0.343	0.251	0.188	0.162
August 2002	0.340	0.246	0.189	0.161
September 2002	0.340	0.246	0.190	0.157
October 2002	0.339	0.242	0.190	0.159
November 2002	0.338	0.240	0.186	0.157
December 2002	0.335	0.239	0.186	0.154
January 2003	0.334	0.239	0.186	0.157
February 2003	0.328	0.234	0.182	0.148
March 2003	0.325	0.232	0.180	0.147
April 2003	0.326	0.232	0.184	0.144
May 2003	0.328	0.228	0.187	0.143
June 2003	0.328	0.230	0.189	0.142
July 2003	0.328	0.229	0.187	0.141
August 2003	0.329	0.230	0.185	0.139
September 2003	0.325	0.228	0.185	0.141
October 2003	0.327	0.229	0.183	0.141
November 2003	0.325	0.228	0.182	0.140
December 2003	0.329	0.228	0.188	0.143
January 2004	0.334	0.225	0.186	0.141
February 2004	0.333	0.228	0.185	0.141
March 2004	0.335	0.228	0.184	0.140
April 2004	0.338	0.231	0.186	0.144
May 2004	0.335	0.234	0.182	0.145
June 2004	0.335	0.233	0.184	0.149
July 2004	0.339	0.235	0.193	0.153
August 2004	0.335	0.230	0.194	0.154
September 2004	0.343	0.236	0.197	0.155
October 2004	0.343	0.241	0.203	0.153
November 2004	0.345	0.241	0.208	0.153
December 2004	0.346	0.241	0.205	0.152
January 2005	0.343	0.242	0.207	0.152
February 2005	0.346	0.241	0.210	0.154
March 2005	0.348	0.241	0.213	0.155
April 2005	0.347	0.242	0.217	0.155
May 2005	0.345	0.240	0.220	0.155
June 2005	0.347	0.244	0.225	0.154
July 2005	0.342	0.240	0.220	0.154
August 2005	0.345	0.245	0.216	0.157
September 2005	0.340	0.244	0.220	0.156
October 2005	0.341	0.240	0.219	0.156
November 2005	0.343	0.242	0.212	0.159
December 2005	0.342	0.241	0.211	0.157
January 2006	0.344	0.244	0.210	0.157
February 2006	0.347	0.245	0.211	0.158
March 2006	0.350	0.244	0.212	0.158
April 2006	0.349	0.245	0.209	0.153
May 2006	0.349	0.247	0.209	0.159
June 2006	0.355	0.246	0.210	0.160
July 2006	0.358	0.249	0.214	0.160
August 2006	0.358	0.249	0.218	0.159
September 2006	0.363	0.253	0.218	0.161
October 2006	0.362	0.257	0.219	0.160
November 2006	0.364	0.256	0.224	0.157
December 2006	0.365	0.261	0.226	0.162
January 2007	0.363	0.262	0.226	0.163
February 2007	0.365	0.265	0.232	0.161
March 2007	0.369	0.269	0.232	0.164
April 2007	0.369	0.264	0.232	0.168
May 2007	0.373	0.265	0.229	0.162
June 2007	0.370	0.266	0.222	0.160
July 2007	0.368	0.266	0.220	0.159
August 2007	0.370	0.270	0.218	0.157
September 2007	0.364	0.264	0.213	0.154
October 2007	0.365	0.261	0.212	0.154
November 2007	0.365	0.258	0.210	0.156
December 2007	0.364	0.255	0.211	0.153
January 2008	0.362	0.252	0.213	0.153
February 2008	0.361	0.248	0.209	0.154
March 2008	0.357	0.246	0.209	0.152
April 2008	0.356	0.248	0.207	0.151
May 2008	0.357	0.248	0.205	0.150
June 2008	0.351	0.244	0.205	0.148
July 2008	0.350	0.241	0.203	0.145
August 2008	0.346	0.237	0.202	0.141
September 2008	0.346	0.234	0.198	0.140
October 2008	0.347	0.233	0.198	0.136
November 2008	0.340	0.231	0.197	0.134
December 2008	0.335	0.228	0.189	0.132
January 2009	0.332	0.223	0.184	0.128
February 2009	0.320	0.218	0.178	0.122
March 2009	0.313	0.213	0.173	0.115
April 2009	0.311	0.209	0.170	0.111
May 2009	0.302	0.199	0.162	0.108
June 2009	0.300	0.195	0.157	0.107
July 2009	0.298	0.195	0.154	0.106
August 2009	0.293	0.189	0.149	0.104
September 2009	0.292	0.185	0.145	0.101
October 2009	0.290	0.180	0.138	0.099
November 2009	0.288	0.179	0.135	0.097
December 2009	0.289	0.177	0.135	0.096
January 2010	0.290	0.177	0.134	0.095
February 2010	0.293	0.176	0.132	0.094
March 2010	0.298	0.178	0.132	0.096
April 2010	0.301	0.180	0.135	0.096
May 2010	0.304	0.183	0.138	0.098
June 2010	0.304	0.184	0.139	0.096
July 2010	0.305	0.183	0.139	0.098
August 2010	0.306	0.184	0.139	0.098

Note: CPS. Series 12-Month Moving Average. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Bottom panel
Unemployment Inflow and Outflow Rates by OECD Countries

Percent
Country	Outflow Rate	Inflow Rate
Australia	22.8	1.7
Canada	26.1	2.4
France	7.7	0.7
Germany	6.0	0.5
Ireland	5.9	0.6
Italy	4.3	0.4
Japan	18.9	0.6
New Zealand	28.5	1.7
Norway	38.5	1.6
Portugal	6.3	0.4
Spain	6.3	1.1
Sweden	29.2	1.2
United Kingdom	13.9	1.0
United States	56.5	3.6
United States (2010)	24.57	2.61

Note: Elsby, Hobijn, Şahin (2009), OECD.

Exhibit 11
Summary

The following factors have had a measurable effect on the unemployment rate during 2007-2010:

	Estimated effect on U
Extended unemployment insurance benefits:	+ 0.4 to 1.7 percentage points (preferred estimate around + 0.8 percentage point)
Decline in the recruiting intensity of firms:	+ 1.4 percentage points
Skill mismatch across industries:	+ 0.8 percentage point
Skill mismatch across occupations:	+ 1.4 percentage points

Note: These effects are not additive.

The following factors have had no measurable effect on the unemployment rate during 2007-2010:
- House lock
- Geographic mismatch
Problems facing the U.S. labor market are unlikely to be as severe as the European-style hysteresis problem of the 1980s.

Exhibit 12 - Last Exhibit
Board and Reserve Bank Staff Estimates

Top panel

	Tealbook	Boston	New York	Philadelphia	Cleveland	Richmond	Atlanta	Chicago	St. Louis	Minneapolis	Kansas City	Dallas	San Franciso
Pre-Crisis	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	4.5	5.0	5.0	7.4	5.0	5.0	5.25	5.0
Current	6.6	6.25	6.25	6.75	5.9	6.5	7.0	7.0	8.9	7.5	5.5	5.3	6.25
Increase	1.6	1.25	1.25	1.75	.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	2.5	.5	.05	1.25
2015*	5.3	5.3	5.0	5.25	5.9	6.3	5.5	5.2	7.9	5.5	5.5	5.2	5.25

* St. Louis estimate is for 2013. Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Distribution of Estimates

Pre-Crisis
Percent of labor force	Number of estimates
4.5	1
5.0	10
5.25	1
7.4	1

Current
Percent of labor force	Number of estimates
5.3	1
5.5	1
5.9	1
6.25	3
6.5	1
6.6	1
6.75	1
7.0	2
7.5	1
8.9	1

2015
Percent of labor force	Number of estimates
5.0	1
5.2	2
5.3	4
5.5	3
5.9	1
6.3	1
7.9	1

Bottom-right panel
Estimated Increase

Pre-Crisis to Current
Percentage points	Number of estimates
0.05	1
0.5	1
0.9	1
1.25	3
1.5	1
1.6	1
1.75	1
2.0	3
2.5	1

Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Material for
FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations

Brian Sack
January 25, 2011

Class II FOMC - Restricted FR

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel
(1)

Title: Treasury Yields
Series: 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury yields
Horizon: January 1, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: Treasury yields leveled out following their sharp increases in the last two months of 2010.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(2)

Title: Implied Federal Funds Rate Path
Series: Future federal funds rates implied by Eurodollar and federal funds futures contracts
Horizon: 11/02/10 and 01/21/11
Description: The implied path of the fed funds rate increased since the November FOMC meeting.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Middle-left panel
(3)

Title: Cumulative Size of Asset Purchase Program
Series: FRBNY policy survey
Horizon: November Survey, January Survey
Description: The primary dealer survey shows that the expectations have solidified around $600 billion for the size of the program.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey

Middle-right panel
(4)

Title: 10-Year Term Premium* (Kim-Wright Model)
Series: 10-Year Term Premium (Kim-Wright Model)
Horizon: January 2000 - January 2011
Description: The Kim-Wright model estimated by the Board staff has returned the 10-year term premium to within its historical range.

* Based on zero coupon Treasury yield. Return to text

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Bottom-left panel
(5)

Title: Breakeven Inflation Rates
Series: 5-year spot and 5-year, 5-year forward rate
Horizon: January 4, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: The forward rate has declined during the intermeeting period, while the 5-year spot rate has continued to increase.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Bottom-right panel
(6)

Title: Treasury Debt Outstanding
Series: Current debt limit, projected path without SFP rolloff, and projected path with SFP rolloff
Horizon: October 1, 2010 - May 1, 2011
Description: If the Treasury reduces the balance of its Supplementary Finance Program, the date when the debt ceiling will be reached will be moved out to mid-April.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Exhibit 2

Top-left panel
(7)

Title: S&P 500 Index
Series: S&P 500 index
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: The S&P 500 has increased during the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg

Top-right panel
(8)

Title: 5-Month Change in the S&P 500
Series: S&P 500
Horizon: January 1, 1995 - January 21, 2011
Description: The current 5-month change in the S&P 500 is about 22% -- a pace that has only been matched on a few occasions in the past 15 years.

Source: Bloomberg

Middle-left panel
(9)

Title: Corporate Bonds Spreads
Series: High yield and Investment grade yields
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: Yield spreads narrowed for both investment-grade and high-yield issues during the intermeeting period.

Source: Bank of America

Middle-right panel
(10)

Title: CMBS and ABS Spreads
Series: Super senior AAA CMBS and AAA credit card ABS
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: Spreads for CMBS have narrowed during the intermeeting period and ABS has remained at low levels.

Source: JPMorgan Chase

Bottom-left panel
(11)

Title: U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar
Series: Broad dollar
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: The dollar depreciated against most currencies during the intermeeting period.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Bloomberg

Bottom-right panel
(12)

Title: 3-Month Funding Spreads to OIS
Series: Euribor Panel (swapped to dollars) and Libor Panel
Horizon: August 3, 2009 - January 21, 2011
Description: The dollar funding rate that can be achieved through FX swaps declined notably during the intermeeting period.

Source: Bloomberg

Exhibit 3

Top-left panel
(13)

Title: Treasury Purchases by Maturity
Series: Treasury Purchases
Horizon: August 10, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: The Desk has conducted about $244 billion of purchases of Treasury securities.

As shown in the chart, approximate values are 1.5-2.5: 4.5%; 2.5-4: 20.5%; 4-5.5: 19.5%; 5.5-7: 22.5%; 7-10: 22.5%; 10-17: 2%; 17-30: 4%; TIPS: 3%.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Top-right panel
(14)

Title: Average Bid Size of 10-Year Treasury Note
Series: Bid size of 10-year Treasury note
Horizon: January 1, 2010 - January 21, 2011
Description: The bid size for the 10-year Treasury note has increased during the intermeeting period.

Source: BrokerTec

Middle-left panel
(15)

Title: Projected SOMA Reinvestments
Series: November FOMC, December FOMC, and January FOMC projected SOMA reinvestments
Horizon: January 2011 - June 2011
Description: The projected MBS prepayments decreased.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Middle-right panel
(16)

Title: Projected Size of Federal Reserve Securities Holdings*
Series: Median securities holdings
Horizon: 2009 -2015
Description: Market participants expect the FOMC to gradually shrink the SOMA portfolio over time.

* Values of end of year estimates. Return to text

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey

Bottom-left panel
(17)

Title: Probability of Halting Reinvestments (Over 2 and 5 Year Horizons)
Series: Treasury, Agency, and MBS probabilities
Horizon: 2 and 5 year
Description: The odds assigned to halting reinvestments of principal payments in each of the asset classes within the next two years were sizable.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey

Bottom-right panel
(18)

Title: Probability of Asset Sales (Over 2 and 5 Year Horizons)
Series: Treasury, Agency, and MBS probabilities
Horizon: 2 and 5 year
Description: The odds of asset sales occurring within the next two years were much lower.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey

Exhibit 4

Top-left panel
(19)

Title: Balance Sheet Path under Baseline Scenario
Series: Total balance sheet path
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: The balance sheet is expected to return to normal levels in 2016.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Top-right panel
(20)

Title: Interest Rate Path under Baseline Scenario
Series: 10-year Treasury Yield and Federal Funds Rate
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: The federal funds rate is estimated to begin increasing in 2012 and level off at 4½ percent. The 10-year Treasury rate is estimated to increase immediately and level off at 5 percent.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Middle-left panel
(21)

Title: Net Portfolio Income under Baseline Scenario
Series: Funding cost, net coupon income, capital gains and losses*, and the total income
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: SOMA income is elevated through 2013, falls, and again rises after 2018.

* Capital G/L represents the average between the FRBNY and the Board. Return to text

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Middle-right panel
(22)

Title: Treasury Remittances under Baseline Scenario
Series: Net portfolio income and remittances to Treasury under baseline
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: Even at the lowest point, remittances to Treasury are projected to remain sizeable, at over $25 billion.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Bottom-left panel
(23)

Title: Effects of Higher Interest Rates on Treasury Remittances
Series: Baseline scenario and High rate scenario
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: At higher rates the amount remitted to the Treasury could fall close to zero because of higher funding costs for the portfolio and larger capital losses on the assets sold.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Bottom-right panel
(24)

Title: Effects of Faster MBS Sales on Treasury Remittances
Series: Baseline scenario, Faster MBS sales with baseline rates, and Faster MBS sales with high rates
Horizon: 2010 - 2020
Description: Treasury remittances under the more aggressive scenario decline quicker.

Source: Staff memo to FOMC

Appendix 3: Materials used by Messrs. Reifschneider and Kamin, and Ms. Liang

Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook
January 25-26, 2011

Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)

Exhibit 1
Recent Nonfinancial Indicators

Top-left panel
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period	Real PCE
December 2006	9219.08
January 2007	9227.11
February 2007	9234.92
March 2007	9243.50
April 2007	9261.78
May 2007	9276.41
June 2007	9273.19
July 2007	9289.02
August 2007	9315.01
September 2007	9325.98
October 2007	9326.32
November 2007	9344.95
December 2007	9355.48
January 2008	9340.00
February 2008	9309.94
March 2008	9322.27
April 2008	9331.87
May 2008	9326.93
June 2008	9319.88
July 2008	9267.08
August 2008	9256.39
September 2008	9206.97
October 2008	9186.87
November 2008	9182.19
December 2008	9129.79
January 2009	9175.89
February 2009	9161.06
March 2009	9125.45
April 2009	9114.56
May 2009	9117.96
June 2009	9118.41
July 2009	9131.27
August 2009	9212.69
September 2009	9140.85
October 2009	9171.05
November 2009	9178.18
December 2009	9199.34
January 2010	9189.31
February 2010	9228.20
March 2010	9258.61
April 2010	9257.18
May 2010	9280.51
June 2010	9289.27
July 2010	9302.59
August 2010	9333.95
September 2010	9355.42
October 2010	9400.26
November 2010	9427.03
December 2010 (staff estimate)	9448.54

Quarterly averages
Billions of chained (2005) dollars
Period	Real PCE
2010:Q1	9225.37
2010:Q2	9275.66
2010:Q3	9330.65
2010:Q4 (staff estimate)	9425.28

[Inset]
Percent change, a.r.
	2010:Q3	2010:Q4	2011:Q1
Current	2.4	4.1	3.1
Dec. TB	(2.0)	(2.4)	(2.7)

Top-right panel
Manufacturing IP

2007 = 100
Period	Index
December 2006	98.63
January 2007	98.23
February 2007	98.82
March 2007	99.61
April 2007	100.30
May 2007	100.23
June 2007	100.29
July 2007	100.69
August 2007	100.19
September 2007	100.66
October 2007	100.03
November 2007	100.41
December 2007	100.55
January 2008	100.09
February 2008	99.57
March 2008	99.30
April 2008	98.12
May 2008	97.67
June 2008	97.06
July 2008	96.60
August 2008	95.73
September 2008	92.58
October 2008	92.29
November 2008	90.49
December 2008	88.08
January 2009	85.68
February 2009	85.58
March 2009	84.21
April 2009	83.78
May 2009	83.12
June 2009	82.98
July 2009	84.49
August 2009	85.65
September 2009	86.31
October 2009	86.39
November 2009	87.21
December 2009	87.34
January 2010	88.28
February 2010	88.10
March 2010	89.09
April 2010	89.98
May 2010	90.98
June 2010	90.82
July 2010	91.58
August 2010	91.69
September 2010	91.86
October 2010	92.26
November 2010	92.48
December 2010	92.89

[Inset]
Percent change, a.r.
2010:Q3	5.0
2010:Q4	3.7
2011:Q1	6.9

Middle-left panel
Single-family Housing Starts and Sales

Period	New and existing sales* (Millions of units, a.r.)	Starts (Thousands of units, a.r.)
December 2006	6.61	1249
January 2007	6.53	1130
February 2007	6.53	1189
March 2007	6.18	1202
April 2007	6.08	1197
May 2007	5.98	1130
June 2007	5.83	1131
July 2007	5.75	1042
August 2007	5.50	957
September 2007	5.17	935
October 2007	5.13	878
November 2007	5.08	833
December 2007	4.98	805
January 2008	5.03	773
February 2008	4.93	724
March 2008	4.91	728
April 2008	4.87	682
May 2008	4.88	679
June 2008	4.81	647
July 2008	4.83	615
August 2008	4.79	607
September 2008	5.03	537
October 2008	4.72	542
November 2008	4.43	459
December 2008	4.62	403
January 2009	4.42	360
February 2009	4.56	362
March 2009	4.48	363
April 2009	4.53	386
May 2009	4.61	406
June 2009	4.73	476
July 2009	4.94	500
August 2009	4.89	482
September 2009	5.32	507
October 2009	5.63	475
November 2009	6.08	504
December 2009	5.12	486
January 2010	4.78	511
February 2010	4.71	527
March 2010	5.08	535
April 2010	5.47	563
May 2010	5.26	459
June 2010	4.93	450
July 2010	3.65	427
August 2010	3.88	432
September 2010	4.28	447
October 2010	4.17	433
November 2010	4.44	458

* December 2010 sales include staff estimate of new home sales. Return to table

Middle-right panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Period	Thousands
January 2007	181.00
February 2007	144.67
March 2007	159.33
April 2007	119.00
May 2007	135.00
June 2007	78.00
July 2007	61.33
August 2007	-17.33
September 2007	-36.00
October 2007	-19.33
November 2007	49.33
December 2007	61.67
January 2008	36.00
February 2008	-24.67
March 2008	-51.67
April 2008	-101.33
May 2008	-157.33
June 2008	-214.67
July 2008	-246.67
August 2008	-278.00
September 2008	-353.33
October 2008	-450.00
November 2008	-579.00
December 2008	-649.33
January 2009	-735.67
February 2009	-726.67
March 2009	-752.33
April 2009	-700.00
May 2009	-575.67
June 2009	-478.33
July 2009	-361.00
August 2009	-321.33
September 2009	-232.67
October 2009	-221.00
November 2009	-124.33
December 2009	-90.00
January 2010	2.67
February 2010	-1.67
March 2010	78.67
April 2010	153.67
May 2010	150.00
June 2010	117.67
July 2010	76.33
August 2010	107.00
September 2010	124.00
October 2010	149.33
November 2010	128.00
December 2010	128.33

Note: Three-month moving average.

Bottom-left panel
Near-term GDP Projection

(Percent change, annual rate)
		2010 Q3	2010 Q4	2011 Q1
1.	Real GDP	2.6	3.8	3.6
2.	(Dec. TB)	(2.7)	(2.5)	(3.4)
3.	PDFP	2.3	4.0	3.9
4.	(Dec. GB)	(2.6)	(2.7)	(3.5)

Bottom-right panel
Consumer Prices

Twelve-month percent change
Period	Core CPI	Core PCE	Core market-based PCE
January 2007	2.67	2.54	2.37
February 2007	2.71	2.62	2.40
March 2007	2.45	2.48	2.21
April 2007	2.34	2.34	2.10
May 2007	2.24	2.22	1.98
June 2007	2.22	2.16	1.90
July 2007	2.21	2.23	1.92
August 2007	2.13	2.16	1.78
September 2007	2.14	2.25	1.87
October 2007	2.17	2.29	2.00
November 2007	2.33	2.42	2.17
December 2007	2.44	2.50	2.30
January 2008	2.47	2.32	2.18
February 2008	2.27	2.22	2.11
March 2008	2.35	2.38	2.23
April 2008	2.26	2.45	2.23
May 2008	2.31	2.55	2.29
June 2008	2.41	2.63	2.39
July 2008	2.51	2.64	2.53
August 2008	2.54	2.57	2.59
September 2008	2.47	2.43	2.56
October 2008	2.22	2.17	2.37
November 2008	2.00	2.02	2.24
December 2008	1.76	1.78	2.02
January 2009	1.68	1.63	2.00
February 2009	1.79	1.62	2.08
March 2009	1.76	1.47	2.09
April 2009	1.90	1.54	2.20
May 2009	1.83	1.48	2.12
June 2009	1.73	1.42	2.03
July 2009	1.53	1.32	1.81
August 2009	1.44	1.32	1.77
September 2009	1.51	1.33	1.70
October 2009	1.71	1.60	1.75
November 2009	1.70	1.67	1.73
December 2009	1.82	1.78	1.75
January 2010	1.55	1.79	1.58
February 2010	1.34	1.75	1.41
March 2010	1.11	1.78	1.28
April 2010	0.92	1.54	1.11
May 2010	0.94	1.48	1.10
June 2010	0.90	1.37	1.09
July 2010	0.87	1.32	1.12
August 2010	0.89	1.24	1.08
September 2010	0.80	1.09	0.95
October 2010	0.61	0.83	0.70
November 2010	0.77	0.80	0.75
December 2010	0.80	0.78	0.78

Note: December 2010 values for core PCE prices and core market-based PCE prices are staff estimates.

Exhibit 2
Medium-term Outlook for Real Activity and Inflation

Top-left panel
Real GDP

Four-quarter percent change
Period	December Tealbook	January Tealbook
2009	0.20	0.20
2010	2.67	2.95
Forecast
2011	3.73	3.85
2012	4.44	4.45

Top-right panel
Unemployment Rate

Percent
Period	Current	December Tealbook
2007:Q1	4.50	ND
2007:Q2	4.48	ND
2007:Q3	4.65	ND
2007:Q4	4.80	ND
2008:Q1	4.95	ND
2008:Q2	5.31	ND
2008:Q3	6.03	ND
2008:Q4	6.91	ND
2009:Q1	8.22	ND
2009:Q2	9.28	ND
2009:Q3	9.68	ND
2009:Q4	10.00	ND
2010:Q1	9.69	ND
2010:Q2	9.65	ND
2010:Q3	9.58	ND
2010:Q4	9.62	9.72
2011:Q1	9.46	9.55
2011:Q2	9.34	9.37
2011:Q3	9.14	9.14
2011:Q4	8.93	8.93
2012:Q1	8.72	8.79
2012:Q2	8.43	8.58
2012:Q3	8.13	8.29
2012:Q4	7.84	8.00

70% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 9.62 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [6.9,8.8].
90% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 9.62 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [6.3,9.4].

Middle-left panel
Core PCE Prices

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Current	December Tealbook
2007:Q1	2.55	ND
2007:Q2	2.24	ND
2007:Q3	2.21	ND
2007:Q4	2.40	ND
2008:Q1	2.31	ND
2008:Q2	2.54	ND
2008:Q3	2.54	ND
2008:Q4	1.99	ND
2009:Q1	1.57	ND
2009:Q2	1.48	ND
2009:Q3	1.32	ND
2009:Q4	1.69	ND
2010:Q1	1.77	ND
2010:Q2	1.46	ND
2010:Q3	1.22	ND
2010:Q4	0.84	0.92
2011:Q1	0.76	0.87
2011:Q2	0.75	0.84
2011:Q3	0.87	0.86
2011:Q4	0.97	0.90
2012:Q1	0.99	0.88
2012:Q2	1.00	0.88
2012:Q3	1.00	0.89
2012:Q4	1.02	0.93

70% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 0.84 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [0.25,1.9].
90% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 0.84 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [-0.2,2.3].

Middle-right panel
Dispersion of SPF Forecasts

Percentage points
Period	GDP growth over the next 4 quarters	CPI inflation over the next 10 years
2006	0.41	0.49
2007	0.53	0.45
2008	0.93	0.54
2009	0.80	0.57
2010	0.46	0.72

Note: Standard deviation of projections across participants in SPF surveys released in the fourth quarter.

Bottom-left panel
Real Federal Funds Rate

Period	Percent
1960:Q1	1.86
1960:Q2	1.75
1960:Q3	1.24
1960:Q4	0.85
1961:Q1	0.69
1961:Q2	0.49
1961:Q3	0.40
1961:Q4	1.20
1962:Q1	1.05
1962:Q2	1.15
1962:Q3	1.52
1962:Q4	1.67
1963:Q1	1.76
1963:Q2	1.78
1963:Q3	2.09
1963:Q4	1.90
1964:Q1	1.80
1964:Q2	1.87
1964:Q3	1.92
1964:Q4	2.27
1965:Q1	2.73
1965:Q2	2.84
1965:Q3	2.82
1965:Q4	2.84
1966:Q1	3.09
1966:Q2	2.93
1966:Q3	2.90
1966:Q4	2.50
1967:Q1	1.71
1967:Q2	1.03
1967:Q3	0.86
1967:Q4	1.01
1968:Q1	1.04
1968:Q2	1.72
1968:Q3	1.47
1968:Q4	1.26
1969:Q1	1.93
1969:Q2	3.65
1969:Q3	4.26
1969:Q4	4.20
1970:Q1	3.84
1970:Q2	3.24
1970:Q3	2.12
1970:Q4	0.75
1971:Q1	-1.14
1971:Q2	-0.46
1971:Q3	0.63
1971:Q4	0.77
1972:Q1	-0.13
1972:Q2	1.10
1972:Q3	1.74
1972:Q4	2.08
1973:Q1	3.75
1973:Q2	4.31
1973:Q3	6.46
1973:Q4	5.11
1974:Q1	3.39
1974:Q2	4.14
1974:Q3	3.37
1974:Q4	-0.51
1975:Q1	-3.81
1975:Q2	-3.67
1975:Q3	-1.50
1975:Q4	-1.38
1976:Q1	-1.50
1976:Q2	-0.78
1976:Q3	-0.76
1976:Q4	-1.10
1977:Q1	-1.46
1977:Q2	-1.31
1977:Q3	-0.77
1977:Q4	0.03
1978:Q1	0.35
1978:Q2	0.66
1978:Q3	1.42
1978:Q4	2.56
1979:Q1	3.30
1979:Q2	2.92
1979:Q3	3.56
1979:Q4	5.90
1980:Q1	6.25
1980:Q2	3.80
1980:Q3	0.55
1980:Q4	6.20
1981:Q1	7.17
1981:Q2	8.75
1981:Q3	8.97
1981:Q4	5.67
1982:Q1	7.11
1982:Q2	7.97
1982:Q3	4.72
1982:Q4	3.37
1983:Q1	2.83
1983:Q2	3.57
1983:Q3	4.31
1983:Q4	4.90
1984:Q1	5.52
1984:Q2	5.98
1984:Q3	7.41
1984:Q4	5.37
1985:Q1	4.36
1985:Q2	4.21
1985:Q3	4.28
1985:Q4	4.37
1986:Q1	4.22
1986:Q2	3.21
1986:Q3	2.40
1986:Q4	2.33
1987:Q1	2.45
1987:Q2	2.90
1987:Q3	3.03
1987:Q4	3.05
1988:Q1	2.68
1988:Q2	2.83
1988:Q3	3.49
1988:Q4	3.93
1989:Q1	4.79
1989:Q2	5.40
1989:Q3	5.24
1989:Q4	4.92
1990:Q1	4.47
1990:Q2	4.02
1990:Q3	3.59
1990:Q4	3.25
1991:Q1	2.16
1991:Q2	2.08
1991:Q3	1.89
1991:Q4	1.04
1992:Q1	0.32
1992:Q2	0.17
1992:Q3	0.05
1992:Q4	0.07
1993:Q1	0.48
1993:Q2	0.54
1993:Q3	0.76
1993:Q4	0.85
1994:Q1	1.13
1994:Q2	1.85
1994:Q3	2.18
1994:Q4	2.81
1995:Q1	3.37
1995:Q2	3.63
1995:Q3	3.59
1995:Q4	3.54
1996:Q1	3.34
1996:Q2	3.36
1996:Q3	3.42
1996:Q4	3.31
1997:Q1	3.25
1997:Q2	3.41
1997:Q3	3.66
1997:Q4	3.85
1998:Q1	4.01
1998:Q2	4.16
1998:Q3	4.06
1998:Q4	3.39
1999:Q1	3.21
1999:Q2	3.25
1999:Q3	3.64
1999:Q4	3.82
2000:Q1	3.96
2000:Q2	4.60
2000:Q3	4.78
2000:Q4	4.65
2001:Q1	3.78
2001:Q2	2.43
2001:Q3	1.79
2001:Q4	0.40
2002:Q1	0.27
2002:Q2	0.08
2002:Q3	-0.23
2002:Q4	-0.37
2003:Q1	-0.46
2003:Q2	-0.25
2003:Q3	-0.40
2003:Q4	-0.48
2004:Q1	-0.84
2004:Q2	-1.11
2004:Q3	-0.75
2004:Q4	-0.28
2005:Q1	0.13
2005:Q2	0.71
2005:Q3	1.32
2005:Q4	1.64
2006:Q1	2.34
2006:Q2	2.61
2006:Q3	2.79
2006:Q4	2.94
2007:Q1	2.71
2007:Q2	3.01
2007:Q3	2.86
2007:Q4	2.09
2008:Q1	0.88
2008:Q2	-0.46
2008:Q3	-0.60
2008:Q4	-1.48
2009:Q1	-1.39
2009:Q2	-1.30
2009:Q3	-1.16
2009:Q4	-1.57
2010:Q1	-1.64
2010:Q2	-1.27
2010:Q3	-1.03
2010:Q4	-0.65
Forecast
2011:Q1	-0.63
2011:Q2	-0.62
2011:Q3	-0.75
2011:Q4	-0.84
2012:Q1	-0.87
2012:Q2	-0.87
2012:Q3	-0.87
2012:Q4	-0.90
2013:Q1	-0.69
2013:Q2	-0.32
2013:Q3	0.09
2013:Q4	0.50
2014:Q1	0.92
2014:Q2	1.36
2014:Q3	1.76
2014:Q4	2.10
2015:Q1	2.27
2015:Q2	2.36
2015:Q3	2.43
2015:Q4	2.51
2016:Q1	2.58
2016:Q2	2.65
2016:Q3	2.71
2016:Q4	2.75

Bottom-right panel
Unemployment Effects of Asset Purchases*

Percentage points
Period	Original 2009 program	Original program with reinvestment	Current program
2009:Q1	0.00	0.00	0.00
2009:Q2	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
2009:Q3	-0.12	-0.12	-0.12
2009:Q4	-0.24	-0.24	-0.24
2010:Q1	-0.37	-0.37	-0.37
2010:Q2	-0.50	-0.50	-0.50
2010:Q3	-0.61	-0.62	-0.62
2010:Q4	-0.70	-0.74	-0.75
2011:Q1	-0.78	-0.85	-0.89
2011:Q2	-0.85	-0.96	-1.04
2011:Q3	-0.90	-1.04	-1.18
2011:Q4	-0.93	-1.12	-1.29
2012:Q1	-0.95	-1.17	-1.39
2012:Q2	-0.96	-1.21	-1.46
2012:Q3	-0.96	-1.23	-1.51
2012:Q4	-0.94	-1.23	-1.53
2013:Q1	-0.92	-1.21	-1.52
2013:Q2	-0.88	-1.18	-1.50
2013:Q3	-0.83	-1.14	-1.45
2013:Q4	-0.78	-1.08	-1.39
2014:Q1	-0.73	-1.01	-1.32
2014:Q2	-0.67	-0.94	-1.23
2014:Q3	-0.60	-0.86	-1.14
2014:Q4	-0.54	-0.78	-1.04
2015:Q1	-0.48	-0.70	-0.94
2015:Q2	-0.42	-0.62	-0.83
2015:Q3	-0.36	-0.54	-0.73
2015:Q4	-0.31	-0.47	-0.63
2016:Q1	-0.25	-0.39	-0.54

* Based on FRB/US simulations, assuming no offsetting changes in the medium-term path of the federal funds rate. Return to text

Exhibit 3
The Pace of Recovery

Top-left panel
Forces Shaping the Recovery

Supportive factors

Capital demands
Diminishing drag from wealth losses
Increasing credit availability

Hindering factors

Housing sector troubles
Non-residential construction
Fading impetus from fiscal policy

Top-right panel
Capital Stocks

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Consumer durable goods	Business equipment and software
1960	ND	2.90
1961	1.65	2.21
1962	3.72	3.47
1963	4.75	4.04
1964	5.76	5.28
1965	7.44	7.25
1966	7.78	8.60
1967	6.35	6.64
1968	7.56	6.48
1969	6.35	6.74
1970	4.28	5.17
1971	5.55	4.28
1972	6.84	5.35
1973	7.73	7.30
1974	4.48	6.30
1975	3.80	3.44
1976	5.51	3.67
1977	6.19	5.08
1978	6.04	6.44
1979	4.67	6.60
1980	1.89	4.48
1981	1.86	4.18
1982	1.70	2.14
1983	4.65	2.22
1984	6.78	4.28
1985	7.30	3.99
1986	7.80	3.16
1987	6.56	2.46
1988	6.22	2.95
1989	5.33	3.19
1990	4.02	2.40
1991	1.91	1.48
1992	2.65	1.90
1993	3.35	3.24
1994	4.03	4.24
1995	3.96	5.05
1996	4.40	5.49
1997	4.93	6.17
1998	6.28	6.91
1999	7.69	7.41
2000	7.92	7.39
2001	7.35	4.42
2002	7.33	2.57
2003	6.87	2.25
2004	6.62	2.85
2005	6.19	3.48
2006	5.61	4.14
2007	5.17	3.87
2008	2.91	2.40
2009	1.39	-0.83
2010	2.69	1.37
Forecast
2011	4.20	2.98
2012	5.48	4.21

Middle-left panel
Direct Contribution of Wealth to Real PCE Growth

Period	Four-quarter percent change
2008	-0.53
2009	-2.31
2010	-1.20
Forecast
2011	-0.56
2012	-0.28

Middle-right panel
Decomposition of Cyclical Recoveries

Selected contributions (p.p.):
	Average	Current
Real GDP expansion*	9.7	6.5
Housing	1.3	0.0
Nonres. Structures	0.0	-0.5
S&L purchases	0.4	-0.2

* Percent change in real GDP, eight quarters after the trough. Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Fiscal Impetus

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Federal	State/local	Total
2008	1.08	-0.06	1.02
2009	1.22	-0.62	0.60
2010	0.67	-0.42	0.25
Forecast
2011	0.13	0.26	0.39
2012	-0.95	0.56	-0.39

Bottom-right panel
State and Local Tax Receipts

Period	Four-quarter percent change
1997:Q1	5.64
1997:Q2	4.96
1997:Q3	6.13
1997:Q4	5.98
1998:Q1	6.17
1998:Q2	6.80
1998:Q3	5.63
1998:Q4	5.44
1999:Q1	5.22
1999:Q2	4.91
1999:Q3	6.07
1999:Q4	6.66
2000:Q1	7.45
2000:Q2	8.24
2000:Q3	5.51
2000:Q4	4.05
2001:Q1	4.10
2001:Q2	3.25
2001:Q3	0.91
2001:Q4	1.18
2002:Q1	-0.70
2002:Q2	-1.74
2002:Q3	4.33
2002:Q4	4.51
2003:Q1	4.42
2003:Q2	4.44
2003:Q3	5.45
2003:Q4	6.73
2004:Q1	8.04
2004:Q2	9.23
2004:Q3	7.70
2004:Q4	8.48
2005:Q1	10.22
2005:Q2	10.61
2005:Q3	9.57
2005:Q4	8.82
2006:Q1	8.52
2006:Q2	8.61
2006:Q3	7.05
2006:Q4	5.48
2007:Q1	5.85
2007:Q2	5.16
2007:Q3	4.89
2007:Q4	4.79
2008:Q1	2.38
2008:Q2	3.00
2008:Q3	2.21
2008:Q4	-1.78
2009:Q1	-4.48
2009:Q2	-9.01
2009:Q3	-5.51
2009:Q4	-0.51
2010:Q1	3.58
2010:Q2	6.92
2010:Q3	5.10
Forecast
2010:Q4	4.38
2011:Q1	3.48
2011:Q2	4.74
2011:Q3	4.74
2011:Q4	4.72
2012:Q1	5.41
2012:Q2	5.49
2012:Q3	5.52
2012:Q4	5.68

Exhibit 4
Household Saving, Sentiment, and Credit Conditions

Top panel
Personal Saving Rate

Percent
Period	History and TB staff projection	Reduced-form model projection, starting in 1979:Q4
1980:Q1	9.00	9.11
1980:Q2	9.80	8.92
1980:Q3	9.90	9.22
1980:Q4	10.50	9.84
1981:Q1	9.70	9.76
1981:Q2	9.60	9.29
1981:Q3	11.10	10.83
1981:Q4	11.90	11.33
1982:Q1	11.30	10.68
1982:Q2	11.50	11.06
1982:Q3	11.20	11.10
1982:Q4	9.80	10.71
1983:Q1	9.60	9.99
1983:Q2	8.50	9.27
1983:Q3	8.20	9.21
1983:Q4	8.60	9.55
1984:Q1	9.80	10.18
1984:Q2	10.10	10.56
1984:Q3	10.70	10.92
1984:Q4	10.40	10.92
1985:Q1	8.60	9.79
1985:Q2	9.40	10.30
1985:Q3	7.10	8.99
1985:Q4	7.80	8.92
1986:Q1	8.20	9.07
1986:Q2	8.20	9.12
1986:Q3	7.20	8.47
1986:Q4	6.70	7.71
1987:Q1	7.50	7.47
1987:Q2	5.30	5.78
1987:Q3	6.00	6.41
1987:Q4	7.10	7.10
1988:Q1	6.80	7.35
1988:Q2	7.00	7.34
1988:Q3	7.00	7.33
1988:Q4	6.80	7.36
1989:Q1	7.40	7.58
1989:Q2	6.60	6.87
1989:Q3	6.20	6.84
1989:Q4	6.40	6.87
1990:Q1	6.40	6.82
1990:Q2	6.70	6.86
1990:Q3	6.40	6.87
1990:Q4	6.50	6.55
1991:Q1	7.00	6.55
1991:Q2	7.00	6.59
1991:Q3	6.80	6.30
1991:Q4	7.40	6.55
1992:Q1	7.40	7.27
1992:Q2	7.60	7.30
1992:Q3	7.00	7.00
1992:Q4	7.40	7.30
1993:Q1	5.60	5.31
1993:Q2	6.20	5.92
1993:Q3	5.40	5.57
1993:Q4	6.00	6.04
1994:Q1	4.60	5.11
1994:Q2	5.40	5.57
1994:Q3	5.30	5.67
1994:Q4	5.60	5.89
1995:Q1	6.10	6.04
1995:Q2	5.20	5.60
1995:Q3	5.00	5.58
1995:Q4	4.80	5.44
1996:Q1	4.90	5.69
1996:Q2	4.80	5.86
1996:Q3	5.00	5.60
1996:Q4	4.70	5.34
1997:Q1	4.60	5.17
1997:Q2	4.90	4.83
1997:Q3	4.40	4.71
1997:Q4	4.60	4.75
1998:Q1	5.80	5.48
1998:Q2	5.50	5.18
1998:Q3	5.20	5.01
1998:Q4	4.50	4.66
1999:Q1	4.30	3.87
1999:Q2	3.00	2.97
1999:Q3	2.40	2.23
1999:Q4	2.60	2.62
2000:Q1	3.10	2.81
2000:Q2	3.10	2.50
2000:Q3	3.10	2.36
2000:Q4	2.40	1.52
2001:Q1	2.80	2.11
2001:Q2	2.10	1.51
2001:Q3	4.20	3.14
2001:Q4	1.60	2.34
2002:Q1	4.00	3.39
2002:Q2	4.00	3.13
2002:Q3	3.10	2.29
2002:Q4	3.10	2.43
2003:Q1	3.10	2.60
2003:Q2	3.50	3.45
2003:Q3	3.60	3.82
2003:Q4	3.60	3.37
2004:Q1	3.20	2.95
2004:Q2	3.60	3.01
2004:Q3	3.30	2.59
2004:Q4	3.60	3.27
2005:Q1	1.60	1.14
2005:Q2	1.30	1.02
2005:Q3	1.20	0.94
2005:Q4	1.50	0.95
2006:Q1	2.20	1.46
2006:Q2	2.50	1.67
2006:Q3	2.30	1.30
2006:Q4	2.50	1.56
2007:Q1	2.30	1.18
2007:Q2	2.00	0.59
2007:Q3	1.80	0.36
2007:Q4	2.10	0.62
2008:Q1	2.70	0.95
2008:Q2	4.80	3.03
2008:Q3	3.60	1.06
2008:Q4	5.20	2.75
2009:Q1	5.40	3.71
2009:Q2	7.20	5.31
2009:Q3	5.60	4.22
2009:Q4	5.50	4.17
2010:Q1	5.50	3.73
2010:Q2	6.20	4.55
2010:Q3	5.90	4.59
Forecast
2010:Q4	5.38	4.54
2011:Q1	5.86	4.98
2011:Q2	5.85	5.17
2011:Q3	5.87	5.22
2011:Q4	5.97	5.37
2012:Q1	5.16	4.62
2012:Q2	5.19	4.59
2012:Q3	5.20	4.64
2012:Q4	5.22	4.71

Middle-left panel
Consumer Sentiment

2000:Q4 = 100
Period	Index
2000:Q1	110.13
2000:Q2	108.77
2000:Q3	107.47
2000:Q4	103.93
2001:Q1	92.27
2001:Q2	91.00
2001:Q3	88.57
2001:Q4	85.13
2002:Q1	93.13
2002:Q2	94.10
2002:Q3	87.27
2002:Q4	83.83
2003:Q1	79.97
2003:Q2	89.27
2003:Q3	89.30
2003:Q4	91.97
2004:Q1	98.00
2004:Q2	93.33
2004:Q3	95.60
2004:Q4	93.87
2005:Q1	94.07
2005:Q2	90.20
2005:Q3	87.50
2005:Q4	82.43
2006:Q1	88.93
2006:Q2	83.80
2006:Q3	84.03
2006:Q4	92.47
2007:Q1	92.20
2007:Q2	86.90
2007:Q3	85.73
2007:Q4	77.50
2008:Q1	72.90
2008:Q2	59.60
2008:Q3	64.83
2008:Q4	57.67
2009:Q1	58.27
2009:Q2	68.20
2009:Q3	68.40
2009:Q4	70.17
2010:Q1	73.87
2010:Q2	73.93
2010:Q3	68.30
2010:Q4	71.27
Forecast
2011:Q1	76.00
2011:Q2	79.18
2011:Q3	82.61
2011:Q4	86.18
2012:Q1	88.29
2012:Q2	89.75
2012:Q3	90.99
2012:Q4	91.84

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.

Middle-right panel
Willingness to Make Consumer Loans

Period	Diffusion Index
1984:Q1	37.00
1984:Q2	24.00
1984:Q3	21.00
1984:Q4	25.00
1985:Q1	33.00
1985:Q2	39.00
1985:Q3	26.00
1985:Q4	19.00
1986:Q1	45.00
1986:Q2	44.00
1986:Q3	42.00
1986:Q4	21.00
1987:Q1	19.00
1987:Q2	25.00
1987:Q3	32.00
1987:Q4	13.00
1988:Q1	12.00
1988:Q2	17.00
1988:Q3	10.00
1988:Q4	25.00
1989:Q1	16.00
1989:Q2	26.00
1989:Q3	7.00
1989:Q4	3.00
1990:Q1	7.00
1990:Q2	9.00
1990:Q3	12.00
1990:Q4	2.00
1991:Q1	-15.00
1991:Q2	2.00
1991:Q3	0.00
1991:Q4	11.00
1992:Q1	9.00
1992:Q2	22.00
1992:Q3	21.00
1992:Q4	16.30
1993:Q1	18.00
1993:Q2	28.10
1993:Q3	25.90
1993:Q4	18.90
1994:Q1	32.70
1994:Q2	30.90
1994:Q3	21.40
1994:Q4	25.00
1995:Q1	16.10
1995:Q2	21.70
1995:Q3	7.00
1995:Q4	5.40
1996:Q1	7.10
1996:Q2	-2.00
1996:Q3	-6.10
1996:Q4	-3.80
1997:Q1	1.90
1997:Q2	0.00
1997:Q3	10.40
1997:Q4	10.00
1998:Q1	0.00
1998:Q2	2.00
1998:Q3	11.80
1998:Q4	5.80
1999:Q1	13.50
1999:Q2	14.50
1999:Q3	11.40
1999:Q4	9.80
2000:Q1	3.90
2000:Q2	-3.70
2000:Q3	1.90
2000:Q4	1.80
2001:Q1	-5.50
2001:Q2	0.00
2001:Q3	0.00
2001:Q4	-7.10
2002:Q1	-5.70
2002:Q2	1.80
2002:Q3	9.30
2002:Q4	5.50
2003:Q1	5.30
2003:Q2	3.70
2003:Q3	16.40
2003:Q4	16.10
2004:Q1	11.30
2004:Q2	17.00
2004:Q3	10.90
2004:Q4	14.80
2005:Q1	13.50
2005:Q2	15.70
2005:Q3	23.00
2005:Q4	3.70
2006:Q1	11.50
2006:Q2	14.50
2006:Q3	7.70
2006:Q4	1.90
2007:Q1	1.80
2007:Q2	9.90
2007:Q3	0.00
2007:Q4	-4.00
2008:Q1	-15.10
2008:Q2	-22.60
2008:Q3	-36.00
2008:Q4	-58.49
2009:Q1	-20.00
2009:Q2	-3.92
2009:Q3	-8.00
2009:Q4	-3.77
2010:Q1	7.69
2010:Q2	14.00
2010:Q3	22.64
2010:Q4	21.82

Source: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.

Bottom-left panel
Credit Card Solicitations

Monthly
Mailings per household
Period	Low income	Middle income	High income
January 2002	2.78	6.63	5.33
February 2002	2.98	6.60	6.11
March 2002	3.12	6.89	5.50
April 2002	3.61	8.09	6.24
May 2002	3.15	7.61	6.04
June 2002	3.36	8.13	6.03
July 2002	2.98	6.98	5.72
August 2002	3.67	7.71	6.35
September 2002	3.41	6.67	5.05
October 2002	3.17	7.88	6.11
November 2002	3.13	7.06	5.25
December 2002	2.75	5.87	4.69
January 2003	2.84	6.18	4.21
February 2003	2.59	6.20	4.51
March 2003	2.57	6.51	4.38
April 2003	2.92	6.83	5.36
May 2003	2.24	5.18	4.03
June 2003	1.99	5.28	4.27
July 2003	2.37	5.44	4.25
August 2003	2.65	5.97	4.93
September 2003	2.43	5.50	4.11
October 2003	2.29	5.94	4.48
November 2003	2.27	5.74	4.35
December 2003	2.64	6.27	4.79
January 2004	2.26	5.24	4.09
February 2004	2.89	7.36	5.53
March 2004	2.75	7.10	5.47
April 2004	2.60	6.90	4.82
May 2004	2.50	6.62	4.57
June 2004	2.80	7.94	5.36
July 2004	3.06	6.96	4.89
August 2004	2.77	6.77	4.87
September 2004	2.91	6.04	4.60
October 2004	2.89	6.47	4.45
November 2004	3.18	6.98	4.13
December 2004	3.22	5.97	4.45
January 2005	2.91	6.18	4.98
February 2005	3.05	6.35	4.59
March 2005	3.16	6.37	4.76
April 2005	3.03	6.81	4.19
May 2005	3.29	6.83	4.86
June 2005	4.03	8.53	5.76
July 2005	3.76	7.24	4.91
August 2005	3.93	8.09	4.71
September 2005	3.62	8.16	6.36
October 2005	3.61	8.15	5.01
November 2005	3.59	7.02	4.92
December 2005	3.53	6.81	4.05
January 2006	3.47	7.11	4.45
February 2006	3.31	7.25	5.10
March 2006	3.76	7.31	4.83
April 2006	3.57	7.07	4.48
May 2006	3.67	7.12	5.05
June 2006	4.20	7.72	5.08
July 2006	3.46	7.20	5.33
August 2006	3.69	7.25	5.10
September 2006	3.47	7.58	5.07
October 2006	3.41	6.96	5.26
November 2006	3.49	6.93	4.81
December 2006	3.62	6.43	4.50
January 2007	3.75	7.30	5.06
February 2007	3.57	6.94	4.58
March 2007	2.97	6.02	3.68
April 2007	3.42	6.27	3.29
May 2007	3.48	6.43	3.91
June 2007	3.26	5.72	3.90
July 2007	3.74	6.07	4.52
August 2007	3.51	6.26	3.94
September 2007	3.05	5.73	3.62
October 2007	3.34	6.65	4.47
November 2007	2.91	5.65	4.10
December 2007	2.90	5.06	3.81
January 2008	2.50	5.91	4.28
February 2008	2.26	5.22	3.95
March 2008	2.38	5.29	4.53
April 2008	2.05	5.15	4.09
May 2008	2.17	5.11	4.41
June 2008	2.01	4.75	4.05
July 2008	1.57	4.46	3.91
August 2008	1.63	4.67	3.92
September 2008	1.57	4.25	3.54
October 2008	1.32	3.66	2.75
November 2008	1.11	2.75	2.65
December 2008	0.90	2.29	2.01
January 2009	0.58	1.64	1.56
February 2009	0.48	1.25	1.34
March 2009	0.57	1.35	1.62
April 2009	0.51	1.34	1.25
May 2009	0.50	1.21	1.29
June 2009	0.47	1.37	1.39
July 2009	0.46	1.19	1.24
August 2009	0.53	1.16	1.41
September 2009	0.53	1.23	1.24
October 2009	0.74	1.56	1.60
November 2009	0.81	2.04	1.91
December 2009	0.83	1.55	1.44
January 2010	1.24	2.71	2.66
February 2010	1.16	2.68	2.50
March 2010	1.05	2.55	2.36
April 2010	1.31	3.06	3.00
May 2010	1.39	3.51	2.79
June 2010	1.34	3.64	2.95
July 2010	1.46	3.72	3.10
August 2010	1.53	4.57	3.33
September 2010	1.77	4.00	2.91
October 2010	1.69	4.05	3.35
November 2010	1.70	4.29	3.31

Note: Low-income, middle-income, and high-income households earn less than $45,000, between $45,000 and $100,000, and more than $100,000, respectively.

Source: Mintel.

Bottom-right panel
Measures of Household Debt Burden

Quarterly
Ratio
Period	Debt service ratio*	Debt/DPI
1980:Q1	0.11	0.68
1980:Q2	0.11	0.68
1980:Q3	0.11	0.67
1980:Q4	0.11	0.66
1981:Q1	0.11	0.65
1981:Q2	0.11	0.66
1981:Q3	0.11	0.65
1981:Q4	0.11	0.65
1982:Q1	0.11	0.64
1982:Q2	0.11	0.64
1982:Q3	0.11	0.63
1982:Q4	0.11	0.64
1983:Q1	0.11	0.62
1983:Q2	0.11	0.63
1983:Q3	0.11	0.64
1983:Q4	0.11	0.64
1984:Q1	0.11	0.63
1984:Q2	0.11	0.63
1984:Q3	0.11	0.64
1984:Q4	0.11	0.65
1985:Q1	0.11	0.67
1985:Q2	0.12	0.68
1985:Q3	0.12	0.71
1985:Q4	0.12	0.72
1986:Q1	0.12	0.72
1986:Q2	0.12	0.73
1986:Q3	0.12	0.75
1986:Q4	0.12	0.77
1987:Q1	0.12	0.75
1987:Q2	0.12	0.78
1987:Q3	0.12	0.78
1987:Q4	0.12	0.78
1988:Q1	0.12	0.77
1988:Q2	0.12	0.78
1988:Q3	0.12	0.79
1988:Q4	0.12	0.79
1989:Q1	0.12	0.79
1989:Q2	0.12	0.80
1989:Q3	0.12	0.81
1989:Q4	0.12	0.82
1990:Q1	0.12	0.81
1990:Q2	0.12	0.81
1990:Q3	0.12	0.82
1990:Q4	0.12	0.83
1991:Q1	0.12	0.82
1991:Q2	0.12	0.83
1991:Q3	0.12	0.83
1991:Q4	0.12	0.83
1992:Q1	0.11	0.82
1992:Q2	0.11	0.81
1992:Q3	0.11	0.82
1992:Q4	0.11	0.82
1993:Q1	0.11	0.83
1993:Q2	0.11	0.82
1993:Q3	0.11	0.84
1993:Q4	0.11	0.84
1994:Q1	0.11	0.84
1994:Q2	0.11	0.84
1994:Q3	0.11	0.84
1994:Q4	0.11	0.85
1995:Q1	0.11	0.85
1995:Q2	0.11	0.86
1995:Q3	0.12	0.87
1995:Q4	0.12	0.87
1996:Q1	0.12	0.87
1996:Q2	0.12	0.87
1996:Q3	0.12	0.88
1996:Q4	0.12	0.88
1997:Q1	0.12	0.87
1997:Q2	0.12	0.88
1997:Q3	0.12	0.88
1997:Q4	0.12	0.88
1998:Q1	0.12	0.87
1998:Q2	0.12	0.87
1998:Q3	0.12	0.88
1998:Q4	0.12	0.89
1999:Q1	0.12	0.89
1999:Q2	0.12	0.91
1999:Q3	0.12	0.92
1999:Q4	0.12	0.92
2000:Q1	0.12	0.90
2000:Q2	0.12	0.91
2000:Q3	0.12	0.92
2000:Q4	0.13	0.94
2001:Q1	0.13	0.94
2001:Q2	0.13	0.96
2001:Q3	0.13	0.96
2001:Q4	0.13	1.00
2002:Q1	0.13	0.99
2002:Q2	0.13	1.00
2002:Q3	0.13	1.02
2002:Q4	0.13	1.05
2003:Q1	0.13	1.06
2003:Q2	0.13	1.08
2003:Q3	0.13	1.09
2003:Q4	0.13	1.11
2004:Q1	0.13	1.12
2004:Q2	0.13	1.13
2004:Q3	0.13	1.15
2004:Q4	0.13	1.16
2005:Q1	0.14	1.19
2005:Q2	0.14	1.21
2005:Q3	0.14	1.22
2005:Q4	0.14	1.24
2006:Q1	0.14	1.24
2006:Q2	0.14	1.26
2006:Q3	0.14	1.27
2006:Q4	0.14	1.28
2007:Q1	0.14	1.28
2007:Q2	0.14	1.29
2007:Q3	0.14	1.30
2007:Q4	0.14	1.30
2008:Q1	0.14	1.29
2008:Q2	0.13	1.25
2008:Q3	0.13	1.26
2008:Q4	0.14	1.27
2009:Q1	0.13	1.26
2009:Q2	0.13	1.24
2009:Q3	0.13	1.24
2009:Q4	0.13	1.22
2010:Q1	0.12	1.20
2010:Q2	0.12	1.18
2010:Q3	0.12	1.18
Forecast
2010:Q4	0.12	1.16
2011:Q1	0.11	1.14
2011:Q2	0.11	1.13
2011:Q3	0.11	1.11
2011:Q4	0.11	1.10
2012:Q1	0.11	1.10
2012:Q2	0.11	1.10
2012:Q3	0.11	1.09
2012:Q4	0.11	1.08

* Debt service ratio is debt service payments (principal and interest) relative to disposable personal income. Return to table

Source: Flow of Funds Accounts.

Exhibit 5
European Developments

Top-left panel
Sovereign Bond Spreads*

Basis points
Date	Greece	Ireland	Portugal	Spain	Italy
1 January 2010	238.7	145.1	69.0	59.1	75.5
4 January 2010	233.1	138.0	67.3	57.9	71.7
5 January 2010	227.9	141.8	67.6	59.2	72.8
6 January 2010	227.1	151.2	69.1	62.2	73.9
7 January 2010	227.3	144.8	67.3	61.3	72.4
8 January 2010	220.0	140.2	61.2	57.0	69.3
11 January 2010	217.5	140.6	65.8	61.6	71.0
12 January 2010	234.5	144.2	69.4	63.5	74.2
13 January 2010	257.7	151.5	76.4	65.9	78.6
14 January 2010	277.6	157.4	88.6	69.8	80.6
15 January 2010	273.4	156.7	92.9	70.4	81.1
18 January 2010	268.1	156.9	94.3	72.5	81.2
19 January 2010	264.3	147.4	92.3	73.1	78.6
20 January 2010	293.8	161.3	104.4	79.6	85.2
21 January 2010	288.1	156.7	104.4	80.2	86.8
22 January 2010	304.8	159.5	109.2	81.5	86.3
25 January 2010	297.7	149.7	98.0	74.0	82.9
26 January 2010	303.7	149.7	93.3	82.6	81.7
27 January 2010	355.6	155.8	105.5	90.3	88.6
28 January 2010	396.1	165.4	121.6	98.6	94.8
29 January 2010	365.8	165.1	121.4	92.4	91.9
1 February 2010	344.0	162.1	120.7	84.2	86.3
2 February 2010	353.6	160.8	129.1	86.1	86.1
3 February 2010	349.7	162.7	147.0	88.9	85.6
4 February 2010	352.7	166.4	159.2	96.7	90.1
5 February 2010	350.5	174.4	161.3	100.1	94.4
8 February 2010	362.5	178.7	162.7	99.9	95.0
9 February 2010	324.4	169.3	147.4	90.9	90.1
10 February 2010	282.8	156.0	135.2	79.0	82.4
11 February 2010	273.2	146.0	118.4	76.0	80.8
12 February 2010	296.1	149.3	123.9	79.6	86.3
15 February 2010	304.9	153.4	123.4	82.3	86.0
16 February 2010	320.4	154.7	125.0	81.0	85.5
17 February 2010	318.4	154.6	118.4	80.2	85.2
18 February 2010	329.3	151.2	117.5	77.8	81.7
19 February 2010	317.5	147.5	112.1	75.1	80.8
22 February 2010	315.6	144.8	110.0	72.6	82.0
23 February 2010	332.0	146.6	111.7	74.4	86.2
24 February 2010	338.9	150.7	114.6	75.6	88.8
25 February 2010	355.1	155.7	117.4	79.6	93.6
26 February 2010	326.1	150.9	111.4	76.0	89.5
1 March 2010	316.0	143.3	98.6	71.3	86.9
2 March 2010	304.7	140.9	94.4	73.8	85.3
3 March 2010	285.8	139.4	91.6	73.2	83.0
4 March 2010	297.0	139.5	93.5	75.1	83.6
5 March 2010	291.1	135.5	91.0	70.9	79.9
8 March 2010	306.0	133.7	89.3	68.4	78.9
9 March 2010	313.2	134.6	93.4	71.0	80.3
10 March 2010	309.3	129.6	88.1	68.8	78.0
11 March 2010	314.8	128.5	106.0	69.3	77.9
12 March 2010	305.9	127.9	106.8	69.9	79.1
15 March 2010	305.5	129.8	110.4	71.9	79.7
16 March 2010	299.9	129.3	111.1	71.7	79.5
17 March 2010	299.7	135.0	114.7	73.6	80.5
18 March 2010	313.7	137.9	116.2	75.8	81.9
19 March 2010	323.9	141.3	120.6	77.6	84.5
22 March 2010	337.3	144.9	125.8	78.4	86.4
23 March 2010	324.9	142.7	123.9	76.8	85.4
24 March 2010	328.2	149.6	125.9	75.4	84.1
25 March 2010	312.8	143.2	123.8	71.7	78.4
26 March 2010	305.2	139.9	114.4	68.5	77.2
29 March 2010	316.1	138.5	114.2	69.5	78.6
30 March 2010	333.1	138.7	116.0	70.9	78.7
31 March 2010	343.7	138.3	112.7	72.4	88.9
1 April 2010	345.5	134.8	108.7	71.7	86.4
2 April 2010	345.7	134.2	108.1	71.3	86.0
5 April 2010	345.2	134.3	107.9	71.6	85.8
6 April 2010	383.9	135.7	110.2	73.6	87.0
7 April 2010	405.0	137.1	116.2	75.6	88.5
8 April 2010	426.8	139.7	127.8	76.4	89.1
9 April 2010	398.5	135.3	119.9	71.5	83.3
12 April 2010	349.5	131.4	116.7	66.7	80.9
13 April 2010	366.5	134.3	120.4	70.4	83.4
14 April 2010	394.0	138.5	129.2	72.0	84.8
15 April 2010	400.6	141.6	126.3	71.6	84.1
16 April 2010	430.3	147.4	139.4	74.8	86.5
19 April 2010	453.5	152.5	151.8	76.5	87.2
20 April 2010	478.3	146.6	154.8	76.5	86.4
21 April 2010	501.4	152.4	169.3	79.1	89.5
22 April 2010	578.7	172.4	190.6	88.8	94.7
23 April 2010	559.5	171.4	191.0	92.0	94.8
26 April 2010	651.5	186.7	218.2	100.5	97.7
27 April 2010	675.1	216.9	277.0	112.5	110.9
28 April 2010	693.4	224.7	277.2	108.2	107.7
29 April 2010	597.4	210.6	241.5	99.1	100.7
30 April 2010	594.5	210.0	212.2	101.3	99.8
3 May 2010	543.6	204.8	207.0	97.1	93.7
4 May 2010	644.8	233.8	252.0	115.6	105.8
5 May 2010	731.1	270.4	294.5	131.7	120.5
6 May 2010	851.6	300.2	334.7	162.9	148.9
7 May 2010	965.2	305.9	348.8	164.2	147.1
10 May 2010	481.1	176.8	169.6	97.2	101.4
11 May 2010	450.6	164.9	158.9	99.0	101.6
12 May 2010	430.1	163.1	164.0	97.2	99.1
13 May 2010	441.6	163.7	162.8	99.0	92.7
14 May 2010	485.4	174.2	179.0	108.4	104.3
17 May 2010	519.2	183.5	183.9	112.4	103.6
18 May 2010	473.4	179.3	179.2	116.9	106.7
19 May 2010	505.6	182.2	182.7	125.8	112.7
20 May 2010	509.6	196.3	193.3	138.6	127.4
21 May 2010	515.8	200.5	197.5	138.6	126.8
24 May 2010	513.3	201.0	197.0	140.5	125.4
25 May 2010	514.8	215.3	204.4	155.7	138.0
26 May 2010	505.2	216.6	205.5	155.2	137.4
27 May 2010	500.0	214.2	200.6	152.4	139.5
28 May 2010	498.5	214.6	202.3	153.0	145.3
31 May 2010	504.7	214.7	202.1	159.8	148.4
1 June 2010	517.5	223.0	211.0	165.2	149.8
2 June 2010	536.9	229.2	225.2	176.7	159.7
3 June 2010	540.4	233.1	235.6	184.2	161.5
4 June 2010	555.7	252.5	254.6	194.4	167.0
7 June 2010	556.0	258.6	263.7	203.8	176.8
8 June 2010	560.7	258.3	271.6	208.2	178.1
9 June 2010	558.5	253.5	266.7	200.4	157.2
10 June 2010	553.1	248.8	255.2	186.5	141.1
11 June 2010	561.6	254.3	253.4	189.6	146.2
14 June 2010	570.1	263.6	258.8	204.2	144.2
15 June 2010	640.8	281.0	277.7	206.4	136.7
16 June 2010	667.0	289.3	293.9	221.1	138.0
17 June 2010	667.6	290.0	292.4	211.1	136.1
18 June 2010	669.2	281.1	287.5	186.3	124.7
21 June 2010	672.1	269.6	285.7	169.8	121.4
22 June 2010	710.6	271.7	293.1	182.5	132.6
23 June 2010	772.1	281.0	307.7	189.3	140.5
24 June 2010	780.8	285.8	309.6	185.0	143.1
25 June 2010	780.7	291.0	312.6	185.3	146.8
28 June 2010	800.2	295.5	313.5	195.1	153.9
29 June 2010	789.3	295.1	316.4	205.0	157.1
30 June 2010	784.9	292.3	312.2	198.4	151.7
1 July 2010	770.9	290.5	301.4	200.9	151.2
2 July 2010	762.8	273.7	278.7	194.0	143.9
5 July 2010	766.0	272.7	277.1	206.6	146.8
6 July 2010	755.9	269.2	280.0	208.3	147.6
7 July 2010	756.0	269.7	283.8	205.7	148.5
8 July 2010	764.4	262.6	278.2	201.8	141.9
9 July 2010	763.7	261.9	274.9	205.9	138.9
12 July 2010	764.3	267.0	280.4	207.3	144.2
13 July 2010	755.5	266.3	284.6	200.5	142.3
14 July 2010	760.7	282.3	291.2	207.2	146.8
15 July 2010	766.9	284.6	287.3	197.1	147.7
16 July 2010	764.3	282.6	285.5	185.6	147.3
19 July 2010	778.0	283.9	282.9	175.7	140.2
20 July 2010	782.7	276.6	282.9	169.1	136.5
21 July 2010	785.8	275.8	281.8	167.9	137.4
22 July 2010	774.1	276.9	287.4	169.6	135.7
23 July 2010	767.4	271.5	284.3	164.9	131.8
26 July 2010	761.0	259.1	274.3	148.2	123.5
27 July 2010	749.9	238.8	242.9	137.4	120.4
28 July 2010	747.3	223.0	233.3	147.6	123.3
29 July 2010	750.3	232.4	238.7	152.1	125.6
30 July 2010	762.8	236.1	252.4	154.2	128.5
2 August 2010	749.2	227.5	246.3	146.2	122.2
3 August 2010	748.1	230.2	250.1	152.0	126.6
4 August 2010	762.4	229.3	251.2	154.0	125.3
5 August 2010	763.4	239.2	251.4	155.2	127.1
6 August 2010	762.8	236.7	249.2	152.5	126.5
9 August 2010	764.4	250.0	247.5	150.7	125.3
10 August 2010	777.9	267.0	254.2	164.3	131.7
11 August 2010	793.2	289.7	272.7	167.9	137.9
12 August 2010	797.4	287.6	271.9	175.9	141.8
13 August 2010	809.0	293.1	283.7	185.8	147.9
16 August 2010	836.5	299.2	287.3	186.7	152.3
17 August 2010	832.6	291.8	281.2	174.0	146.2
18 August 2010	824.2	288.3	278.0	168.0	140.4
19 August 2010	833.5	293.1	286.7	173.3	146.0
20 August 2010	848.1	303.3	294.4	178.9	151.4
23 August 2010	862.1	305.1	297.1	178.0	149.1
24 August 2010	885.0	318.1	306.6	184.0	157.2
25 August 2010	926.1	343.6	324.0	184.4	161.1
26 August 2010	925.8	345.5	325.8	185.8	161.0
27 August 2010	924.6	352.0	329.5	185.8	157.5
30 August 2010	927.1	352.6	331.8	192.6	165.9
31 August 2010	923.2	356.4	333.0	193.2	171.0
1 September 2010	910.2	347.5	326.0	180.9	157.5
2 September 2010	900.9	342.3	324.6	172.7	151.9
3 September 2010	896.8	340.3	324.8	167.1	145.4
6 September 2010	914.3	342.6	333.4	174.1	147.8
7 September 2010	941.9	372.8	354.0	180.6	154.2
8 September 2010	951.9	371.2	350.7	174.1	149.5
9 September 2010	936.7	354.0	342.1	172.0	145.4
10 September 2010	933.2	341.3	337.3	171.4	143.7
13 September 2010	894.4	339.1	330.4	172.6	145.4
14 September 2010	899.9	348.6	334.4	178.6	150.0
15 September 2010	907.8	350.1	336.6	175.7	147.8
16 September 2010	907.2	355.9	348.0	172.5	143.4
17 September 2010	913.3	386.6	365.8	177.3	150.6
20 September 2010	909.3	401.5	392.7	176.2	151.3
21 September 2010	884.1	383.2	385.1	175.0	148.1
22 September 2010	869.0	394.4	379.4	178.5	153.5
23 September 2010	874.9	418.4	401.7	183.7	161.2
24 September 2010	870.5	412.8	404.9	180.6	158.3
27 September 2010	862.9	429.9	414.8	186.8	163.7
28 September 2010	856.1	449.3	426.6	193.4	169.1
29 September 2010	840.5	446.0	423.3	195.7	169.7
30 September 2010	817.4	429.5	402.5	184.5	160.1
1 October 2010	786.0	402.3	384.1	180.7	157.6
4 October 2010	776.7	402.4	382.7	179.9	157.3
5 October 2010	773.8	410.3	393.0	178.0	154.2
6 October 2010	765.8	422.0	400.6	177.6	153.8
7 October 2010	755.2	422.8	401.5	176.8	152.7
8 October 2010	751.7	421.6	398.1	173.7	149.0
11 October 2010	699.7	417.6	389.6	171.0	145.7
12 October 2010	678.7	421.9	398.1	175.0	148.7
13 October 2010	650.2	413.9	390.3	174.5	146.9
14 October 2010	659.1	387.4	376.0	170.1	144.9
15 October 2010	652.3	374.9	336.9	161.7	138.8
18 October 2010	649.4	361.6	314.4	161.6	137.7
19 October 2010	660.1	383.2	318.5	163.1	138.1
20 October 2010	660.9	387.5	329.2	161.8	135.7
21 October 2010	681.2	403.0	338.0	166.9	137.9
22 October 2010	688.3	404.7	338.8	166.1	137.7
25 October 2010	691.0	398.8	323.7	161.6	134.6
26 October 2010	715.9	392.9	312.9	156.7	131.6
27 October 2010	782.6	420.6	329.1	161.2	136.7
28 October 2010	784.1	424.4	337.5	162.7	136.9
29 October 2010	804.3	440.0	343.4	169.3	142.4
1 November 2010	822.3	461.9	362.1	176.3	145.5
2 November 2010	832.0	482.6	376.9	181.9	149.2
3 November 2010	843.6	502.6	387.9	187.0	152.4
4 November 2010	881.6	526.0	421.1	194.4	156.6
5 November 2010	904.1	520.6	409.8	194.7	155.9
8 November 2010	901.7	546.9	438.6	201.6	164.4
9 November 2010	891.1	553.2	435.6	198.6	162.6
10 November 2010	911.0	619.5	459.5	206.0	166.1
11 November 2010	916.0	646.1	460.0	220.0	179.7
12 November 2010	887.7	562.9	423.2	201.9	164.6
15 November 2010	885.7	540.0	417.6	195.8	158.6
16 November 2010	899.7	562.0	414.3	198.5	160.2
17 November 2010	903.3	554.4	410.6	202.0	161.2
18 November 2010	889.5	541.4	405.6	201.3	159.4
19 November 2010	886.1	541.5	404.4	201.9	154.8
22 November 2010	918.3	544.1	407.1	208.8	156.1
23 November 2010	932.9	586.3	435.4	234.5	171.4
24 November 2010	921.0	615.3	430.5	235.3	163.2
25 November 2010	922.2	632.9	431.1	246.3	168.2
26 November 2010	903.9	646.2	425.3	244.4	168.3
29 November 2010	902.8	649.3	427.6	267.0	188.1
30 November 2010	918.7	668.5	430.4	283.3	199.7
1 December 2010	902.9	616.3	386.5	250.9	173.0
2 December 2010	883.3	568.2	332.2	225.9	158.3
3 December 2010	870.6	528.9	307.4	219.4	157.6
6 December 2010	877.0	531.6	309.2	230.4	164.7
7 December 2010	871.1	507.8	303.3	225.6	157.1
8 December 2010	867.6	501.7	306.5	222.0	153.4
9 December 2010	874.1	503.3	313.8	234.0	159.2
10 December 2010	872.9	513.0	330.2	245.2	160.3
13 December 2010	870.6	514.3	332.7	247.6	161.0
14 December 2010	871.4	521.8	335.2	248.8	159.0
15 December 2010	882.9	519.1	339.6	242.2	153.0
16 December 2010	885.6	521.4	339.0	245.1	156.0
17 December 2010	887.4	540.3	342.9	248.9	161.3
20 December 2010	893.4	565.3	349.3	252.8	165.7
21 December 2010	897.9	589.7	353.9	252.9	167.1
22 December 2010	906.2	601.3	361.1	251.8	171.4
23 December 2010	922.7	602.4	363.7	248.8	171.8
24 December 2010	920.4	602.6	364.5	248.9	171.4
27 December 2010	925.2	602.1	363.6	243.1	168.8
28 December 2010	931.3	606.2	362.4	249.8	177.6
29 December 2010	947.1	606.6	362.9	243.5	182.2
30 December 2010	952.5	608.8	364.9	249.1	186.2
31 December 2010	950.9	609.5	363.8	249.0	185.2
3 January 2011	959.9	609.3	369.8	248.9	181.0
4 January 2011	970.0	609.6	372.6	242.6	173.9
5 January 2011	967.9	607.6	371.2	237.1	170.7
6 January 2011	972.5	612.9	404.4	254.7	185.4
7 January 2011	973.6	620.1	423.5	263.8	192.8
10 January 2011	942.3	604.0	410.9	267.5	197.6
11 January 2011	875.8	566.4	397.5	255.9	187.3
12 January 2011	817.3	530.9	373.7	240.2	173.5
13 January 2011	811.4	525.2	370.5	230.5	166.1
14 January 2011	808.1	548.9	378.8	230.4	162.7
17 January 2011	801.2	553.4	378.0	239.5	168.2
18 January 2011	832.9	576.8	395.5	236.3	166.9
19 January 2011	838.7	581.6	395.6	227.1	162.3
20 January 2011	820.8	565.1	366.9	218.1	161.6
21 January 2011	812.7	561.6	370.7	202.6	153.5
24 January 2011	807.2	572.9	378.4	208.7	152.3
25 January 2011	823.8	575.1	390.2	218.2	158.1

* Long-term yield spreads over German bunds. Return to text

A vertical line on November 26, 2010 is labeled "Irish Package."

Source: Bloomberg.

Top-right panel
German Indicators

Period	IFO Survey (January 5, 2010 = 100)	Total PMI (Diffusion index*)
January 2010	95.9	54.60
February 2010	95.5	55.69
March 2010	98.3	58.73
April 2010	101.8	59.32
May 2010	101.6	56.35
June 2010	101.9	56.69
July 2010	106.3	58.96
August 2010	106.8	58.35
September 2010	106.9	54.73
October 2010	107.7	56.00
November 2010	109.3	59.01
December 2010	109.8	60.29
January 2011	110.3	60.98

* 50+ = expansion. Return to table

Date	DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100)
4 January 2010	100.00
5 January 2010	99.73
6 January 2010	99.77
7 January 2010	99.52
8 January 2010	99.82
11 January 2010	99.87
12 January 2010	98.26
13 January 2010	98.59
14 January 2010	99.02
15 January 2010	97.15
18 January 2010	97.85
19 January 2010	98.81
20 January 2010	96.75
21 January 2010	95.02
22 January 2010	94.16
25 January 2010	93.11
26 January 2010	93.73
27 January 2010	93.30
28 January 2010	91.60
29 January 2010	92.73
1 February 2010	93.49
2 February 2010	94.40
3 February 2010	93.78
4 February 2010	91.48
5 February 2010	89.85
8 February 2010	90.68
9 February 2010	90.91
10 February 2010	91.54
11 February 2010	91.00
12 February 2010	90.94
15 February 2010	91.12
16 February 2010	92.46
17 February 2010	93.39
18 February 2010	93.92
19 February 2010	94.61
22 February 2010	94.05
23 February 2010	92.66
24 February 2010	92.84
25 February 2010	91.47
26 February 2010	92.56
1 March 2010	94.46
2 March 2010	95.51
3 March 2010	96.19
4 March 2010	95.82
5 March 2010	97.17
8 March 2010	97.15
9 March 2010	97.31
10 March 2010	98.16
11 March 2010	98.02
12 March 2010	98.29
15 March 2010	97.61
16 March 2010	98.72
17 March 2010	99.60
18 March 2010	99.40
19 March 2010	98.91
22 March 2010	98.99
23 March 2010	99.49
24 March 2010	99.85
25 March 2010	101.40
26 March 2010	101.19
29 March 2010	101.79
30 March 2010	101.56
31 March 2010	101.74
1 April 2010	103.10
2 April 2010	ND
5 April 2010	ND
6 April 2010	103.37
7 April 2010	102.88
8 April 2010	102.04
9 April 2010	103.33
12 April 2010	103.35
13 April 2010	103.02
14 April 2010	103.80
15 April 2010	104.02
16 April 2010	102.19
19 April 2010	101.89
20 April 2010	103.57
21 April 2010	103.01
22 April 2010	101.99
23 April 2010	103.49
26 April 2010	104.69
27 April 2010	101.84
28 April 2010	100.60
29 April 2010	101.60
30 April 2010	101.45
3 May 2010	101.96
4 May 2010	99.31
5 May 2010	98.51
6 May 2010	97.68
7 May 2010	94.49
10 May 2010	99.50
11 May 2010	99.82
12 May 2010	102.24
13 May 2010	103.37
14 May 2010	100.14
17 May 2010	100.31
18 May 2010	101.78
19 May 2010	99.01
20 May 2010	97.02
21 May 2010	96.38
24 May 2010	95.99
25 May 2010	93.75
26 May 2010	95.20
27 May 2010	98.16
28 May 2010	98.31
31 May 2010	98.61
1 June 2010	98.89
2 June 2010	98.89
3 June 2010	100.10
4 June 2010	98.19
7 June 2010	97.63
8 June 2010	97.03
9 June 2010	98.95
10 June 2010	100.14
11 June 2010	99.99
14 June 2010	101.27
15 June 2010	102.10
16 June 2010	102.36
17 June 2010	102.90
18 June 2010	102.79
21 June 2010	104.05
22 June 2010	103.65
23 June 2010	102.58
24 June 2010	101.11
25 June 2010	100.37
28 June 2010	101.80
29 June 2010	98.41
30 June 2010	98.63
1 July 2010	96.84
2 July 2010	96.46
5 July 2010	96.16
6 July 2010	98.23
7 July 2010	99.08
8 July 2010	99.79
9 July 2010	100.28
12 July 2010	100.48
13 July 2010	102.36
14 July 2010	102.67
15 July 2010	101.67
16 July 2010	99.87
19 July 2010	99.35
20 July 2010	98.66
21 July 2010	99.04
22 July 2010	101.55
23 July 2010	101.95
26 July 2010	102.41
27 July 2010	102.63
28 July 2010	102.16
29 July 2010	101.43
30 July 2010	101.65
2 August 2010	104.03
3 August 2010	104.29
4 August 2010	104.68
5 August 2010	104.72
6 August 2010	103.49
9 August 2010	105.01
10 August 2010	103.93
11 August 2010	101.75
12 August 2010	101.44
13 August 2010	101.03
16 August 2010	101.03
17 August 2010	102.61
18 August 2010	102.28
19 August 2010	100.44
20 August 2010	99.29
23 August 2010	99.38
24 August 2010	98.13
25 August 2010	97.54
26 August 2010	97.76
27 August 2010	98.39
30 August 2010	97.75
31 August 2010	97.97
1 September 2010	100.59
2 September 2010	100.59
3 September 2010	101.43
6 September 2010	101.76
7 September 2010	101.15
8 September 2010	101.92
9 September 2010	102.86
10 September 2010	102.75
13 September 2010	103.53
14 September 2010	103.75
15 September 2010	103.53
16 September 2010	103.33
17 September 2010	102.67
20 September 2010	104.07
21 September 2010	103.76
22 September 2010	102.65
23 September 2010	102.26
24 September 2010	104.13
27 September 2010	103.81
28 September 2010	103.77
29 September 2010	103.28
30 September 2010	102.99
1 October 2010	102.70
4 October 2010	101.42
5 October 2010	102.77
6 October 2010	103.68
7 October 2010	103.77
8 October 2010	104.02
11 October 2010	104.32
12 October 2010	104.24
13 October 2010	106.39
14 October 2010	106.73
15 October 2010	107.34
18 October 2010	107.74
19 October 2010	107.31
20 October 2010	107.87
21 October 2010	109.30
22 October 2010	109.22
25 October 2010	109.77
26 October 2010	109.35
27 October 2010	108.59
28 October 2010	109.04
29 October 2010	109.14
1 November 2010	109.20
2 November 2010	110.02
3 November 2010	109.42
4 November 2010	111.35
5 November 2010	111.67
8 November 2010	111.61
9 November 2010	112.23
10 November 2010	111.10
11 November 2010	111.16
12 November 2010	111.35
15 November 2010	112.27
16 November 2010	110.17
17 November 2010	110.78
18 November 2010	112.96
19 November 2010	113.15
22 November 2010	112.79
23 November 2010	110.86
24 November 2010	112.82
25 November 2010	113.75
26 November 2010	113.24
29 November 2010	110.74
30 November 2010	110.58
1 December 2010	113.53
2 December 2010	115.03
3 December 2010	114.87
6 December 2010	114.98
7 December 2010	115.77
8 December 2010	115.34
9 December 2010	115.14
10 December 2010	115.84
13 December 2010	116.22
14 December 2010	116.19
15 December 2010	116.01
16 December 2010	116.14
17 December 2010	115.44
20 December 2010	116.04
21 December 2010	117.02
22 December 2010	116.86
23 December 2010	116.69
24 December 2010	ND
27 December 2010	115.25
28 December 2010	115.27
29 December 2010	115.66
30 December 2010	114.32
31 December 2010	ND
3 January 2011	115.57
4 January 2011	115.33
5 January 2011	114.74
6 January 2011	115.43
7 January 2011	114.87
10 January 2011	113.37
11 January 2011	114.77
12 January 2011	116.87
13 January 2011	116.98
14 January 2011	116.99
17 January 2011	117.03
18 January 2011	118.11
19 January 2011	117.10
20 January 2011	116.14
21 January 2011	116.77
24 January 2011	116.86
25 January 2011	117.10

Middle-left panel
Gross Sovereign and Bank Financing Needs*

Billions of euros
Period	Portugal sovereign	Portugal banks	Spain sovereign	Spain banks
2009	22.25	5.87	157.59	48.58
2010	18.27	12.51	153.16	49.15
2011	21.07	13.24	131.93	59.74
2012	19.01	14.68	126.92	90.95
2013	19.37	2.09	102.86	10.26

* Sovereign is sum of projected fiscal deficit and sovereign bond redemptions. Bank is marketable debt only. Does not include potential costs of bank bailouts. Return to text

Middle-right panel
Sovereign Debt-to-GDP Ratios*

Percent
Period	Greece	Ireland	Portugal	Spain
2009	126.8	66.3	75.7	53.2
2010	140.0	96.1	83.9	63.5
2011	152.8	103.6	89.0	69.2
2012	160.4	108.8	93.4	72.3
2013	164.4	111.3	96.1	73.4
2014	165.9	110.7	98.8	73.6
2015	167.7	110.0	100.9	73.2
2016	169.7	109.4	102.7	72.3
2017	170.9	108.9	104.3	71.1
2018	172.3	108.4	105.5	69.9
2019	173.5	107.9	106.8	68.6
2020	175.0	107.5	108.2	67.4

* Staff estimates. Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Unit Labor Costs

2001:Q1 = 100
Period	Greece	Ireland	Portugal	Spain	Germany
2001:Q1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
2001:Q2	100.62	102.25	100.68	101.15	100.20
2001:Q3	100.74	104.85	99.43	101.96	100.40
2001:Q4	100.86	104.96	99.20	103.00	101.00
2002:Q1	111.45	102.96	103.31	103.34	101.10
2002:Q2	112.44	103.55	103.42	104.50	100.80
2002:Q3	112.56	103.07	105.25	105.65	101.00
2002:Q4	113.18	104.37	104.11	106.11	101.30
2003:Q1	112.81	107.21	107.08	107.27	101.80
2003:Q2	114.53	107.33	107.99	107.96	101.70
2003:Q3	115.64	109.10	108.56	109.11	101.80
2003:Q4	116.87	106.15	108.45	109.34	101.30
2004:Q1	117.49	108.63	107.76	110.61	101.50
2004:Q2	118.35	111.35	109.36	110.61	101.20
2004:Q3	119.95	113.59	110.84	111.65	101.40
2004:Q4	120.57	112.65	110.84	112.34	101.30
2005:Q1	122.04	114.66	113.24	113.26	100.90
2005:Q2	123.15	115.48	112.67	114.76	100.00
2005:Q3	123.28	120.21	115.75	116.15	99.20
2005:Q4	124.14	122.46	114.95	117.07	99.10
2006:Q1	125.37	122.46	116.44	118.11	98.90
2006:Q2	125.86	123.88	117.24	118.92	98.10
2006:Q3	127.09	122.34	115.07	119.84	98.00
2006:Q4	128.33	125.53	115.41	121.34	97.21
2007:Q1	129.68	122.58	117.69	123.18	97.70
2007:Q2	131.28	125.77	119.86	124.11	98.20
2007:Q3	133.50	130.50	117.01	125.14	97.80
2007:Q4	135.34	128.01	117.69	126.76	98.20
2008:Q1	137.68	133.33	119.52	129.87	98.50
2008:Q2	139.53	133.69	123.52	130.33	99.80
2008:Q3	141.01	131.68	120.89	131.72	101.10
2008:Q4	142.49	134.75	125.23	131.72	103.79
2009:Q1	143.72	134.40	127.74	132.30	106.89
2009:Q2	144.70	130.97	130.59	132.41	106.09
2009:Q3	145.81	130.73	125.91	132.06	105.59
2009:Q4	147.29	132.74	128.42	132.30	105.39
2010:Q1	137.68	127.19	127.74	131.26	106.19
2010:Q2	142.61	128.25	132.31	131.26	104.69
2010:Q3	143.60	124.70	127.05	130.57	104.69

Source: Haver Analytics.

Bottom-right panel
Containing Contagion

Backing Portugal and Spain will require €500+ billion, compared with currently available resources of €375-400 billion.
Critical that back-stop capacity be expanded.
Horizontal review of banks must:
- be more credible than one last summer.
- require more banks to raise capital.
- be able to help recapitalize weak banks.

Exhibit 6
Foreign Outlook

Top panel
Real GDP*

Percent change, annual rate
		H1	Q3	Q4^e	2011^p	2012^p
		2010			2011^p	2012^p
1.	Total Foreign	5.6	2.1	3.0	3.4	3.6
2.	June Tealbook	4.6	3.3	3.3	3.3	n.a.

3.	Emerging Market Economies	8.1	2.5	5.0	5.0	5.1
4.	China	9.7	9.6	9.9	8.6	8.5
5.	Emerging Asia ex. China	12.3	-1.1	4.9	4.8	5.0
6.	Latin America	5.2	2.8	3.1	4.2	4.2

7.	Advanced Foreign Economies	3.6	1.7	1.3	2.1	2.4
8.	Euro Area	2.7	1.4	1.5	1.2	2.2
9.	United Kingdom	2.9	2.9	-2.0	2.0	2.5
10.	Canada	3.9	1.0	2.7	2.8	2.7
11.	Japan	4.9	4.5	-1.6	1.7	2.0

* GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Table reflects January Tealbook updated for data. Return to text

Middle-left panel
Industrial Production*

January 2006 = 100
Period	U.S.	AFE	EME
January 2006	100.00	100.00	100.00
February 2006	100.07	99.75	100.08
March 2006	100.30	100.02	101.42
April 2006	100.69	99.86	100.25
May 2006	100.58	100.20	101.99
June 2006	101.03	99.96	103.36
July 2006	101.31	99.99	101.84
August 2006	101.58	100.32	102.35
September 2006	101.47	99.79	103.50
October 2006	101.44	99.90	103.61
November 2006	101.26	100.25	104.96
December 2006	102.33	100.97	104.72
January 2007	101.95	100.77	105.44
February 2007	103.10	101.57	105.55
March 2007	103.22	101.58	107.12
April 2007	103.94	100.94	107.01
May 2007	103.97	101.92	108.46
June 2007	103.81	101.70	107.91
July 2007	104.06	101.31	110.22
August 2007	104.02	102.06	109.46
September 2007	104.44	101.35	109.16
October 2007	103.70	101.44	110.79
November 2007	104.11	101.22	110.59
December 2007	104.20	100.29	111.76
January 2008	103.83	100.88	114.10
February 2008	103.61	100.72	113.89
March 2008	103.31	99.70	114.27
April 2008	102.45	100.26	113.21
May 2008	101.99	99.20	112.37
June 2008	101.62	98.98	113.54
July 2008	101.59	99.35	112.23
August 2008	100.38	98.38	111.76
September 2008	96.41	97.67	111.51
October 2008	97.36	96.12	110.02
November 2008	96.38	93.54	105.81
December 2008	94.41	89.92	102.20
January 2009	92.44	87.45	100.11
February 2009	91.74	85.17	102.72
March 2009	90.39	84.15	103.21
April 2009	89.68	84.05	105.31
May 2009	88.88	83.90	105.31
June 2009	88.68	84.14	107.05
July 2009	89.91	84.50	109.48
August 2009	91.01	84.25	109.20
September 2009	91.68	85.67	110.24
October 2009	91.92	85.84	111.45
November 2009	92.41	86.94	111.53
December 2009	92.91	87.08	114.68
January 2010	93.84	88.62	116.18
February 2010	93.82	88.81	117.32
March 2010	94.38	90.00	119.07
April 2010	94.87	90.39	120.87
May 2010	96.02	91.37	121.95
June 2010	96.08	91.37	120.21
July 2010	96.93	91.43	120.06
August 2010	97.16	91.83	119.92
September 2010	97.45	91.08	120.02
October 2010	97.32	91.26	121.03
November 2010	97.57	ND	ND
December 2010	98.40	ND	ND

* Weighted by share of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text

Middle-center panel
Nominal Exports of Goods*

January 2006 = 100
Period	U.S.	AFE	EME
January 2006	100.00	100.00	100.00
February 2006	101.22	100.10	102.47
March 2006	103.41	101.21	105.61
April 2006	103.27	102.44	102.93
May 2006	105.01	108.46	107.27
June 2006	107.30	106.07	107.68
July 2006	104.68	103.16	105.44
August 2006	107.65	106.21	112.37
September 2006	108.63	106.80	111.17
October 2006	109.57	106.12	109.14
November 2006	111.19	110.22	115.42
December 2006	111.71	114.49	115.31
January 2007	112.78	112.35	118.23
February 2007	110.40	113.17	123.92
March 2007	115.30	114.18	115.50
April 2007	114.92	115.01	121.12
May 2007	117.10	116.50	123.40
June 2007	118.36	116.96	123.00
July 2007	118.89	118.33	123.29
August 2007	121.10	120.99	126.61
September 2007	121.74	121.19	125.12
October 2007	123.53	125.19	133.86
November 2007	125.13	130.55	138.09
December 2007	126.12	126.17	138.55
January 2008	130.28	135.95	150.00
February 2008	133.93	137.00	146.53
March 2008	131.98	139.97	145.61
April 2008	137.27	144.55	153.37
May 2008	138.00	141.16	155.15
June 2008	143.88	141.58	151.97
July 2008	146.54	144.42	157.77
August 2008	143.88	135.92	152.60
September 2008	132.08	131.84	148.05
October 2008	129.70	121.39	141.89
November 2008	121.05	107.17	123.54
December 2008	109.63	104.49	116.79
January 2009	103.31	95.13	107.17
February 2009	105.55	91.73	106.10
March 2009	104.37	92.90	109.07
April 2009	101.05	92.88	109.60
May 2009	103.89	94.22	109.09
June 2009	106.19	98.09	113.02
July 2009	108.66	102.52	115.11
August 2009	108.75	101.50	116.48
September 2009	113.01	106.68	123.89
October 2009	117.10	109.17	129.37
November 2009	117.05	112.49	132.03
December 2009	122.03	113.79	145.05
January 2010	123.45	114.44	141.22
February 2010	123.19	113.63	145.96
March 2010	129.62	118.52	148.00
April 2010	128.10	116.77	149.41
May 2010	131.74	113.36	152.13
June 2010	129.12	115.51	152.98
July 2010	132.65	119.01	147.83
August 2010	132.37	120.22	150.69
September 2010	132.92	121.67	152.02
October 2010	138.28	128.69	153.51
November 2010	139.40	128.69	ND

* Dollar value; weighted by share of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text

Middle-right panel
Output Gaps

Percent*
Period	United States	Advanced Foreign Economies	Emerging Market Economies
2008:Q1	-0.75	1.56	4.25
2008:Q2	-1.13	0.91	3.45
2008:Q3	-2.66	0.15	2.48
2008:Q4	-4.87	-1.72	-0.28
2009:Q1	-6.55	-4.07	-4.02
2009:Q2	-7.21	-4.47	-3.65
2009:Q3	-7.34	-4.55	-2.51
2009:Q4	-6.70	-4.05	-1.77
2010:Q1	-6.43	-3.44	-1.13
2010:Q2	-6.61	-2.98	-0.25
2010:Q3	-6.60	-2.90	-0.75
Forecast
2010:Q4	-6.30	-2.83	-0.69
2011:Q1	-6.04	-2.72	-0.63
2011:Q2	-5.75	-2.58	-0.53
2011:Q3	-5.45	-2.44	-0.41
2011:Q4	-5.06	-2.29	-0.30
2012:Q1	-4.65	-2.12	-0.19
2012:Q2	-4.22	-1.93	-0.08
2012:Q3	-3.79	-1.74	0.02
2012:Q4	-3.33	-1.54	0.13

* Deviation from potential GDP. Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Policy Rates

Percent
Period	United Kingdom	Euro area	Canada	Japan
2 January 2007	5.00	3.50	4.25	ND
4 January 2007	5.00	3.50	4.25	0.25
11 January 2007	5.25	3.50	4.25	0.25
21 February 2007	5.25	3.50	4.25	0.50
8 March 2007	5.25	3.75	4.25	0.50
10 May 2007	5.50	3.75	4.25	0.50
6 June 2007	5.50	4.00	4.25	0.50
5 July 2007	5.75	4.00	4.25	0.50
10 July 2007	5.75	4.00	4.50	0.50
4 December 2007	5.75	4.00	4.25	0.50
6 December 2007	5.50	4.00	4.25	0.50
22 January 2008	5.50	4.00	4.00	0.50
7 February 2008	5.25	4.00	4.00	0.50
4 March 2008	5.25	4.00	3.50	0.50
10 April 2008	5.00	4.00	3.50	0.50
22 April 2008	5.00	4.00	3.00	0.50
3 July 2008	5.00	4.25	3.00	0.50
8 October 2008	4.50	3.75	2.50	0.50
21 October 2008	4.50	3.75	2.25	0.50
31 October 2008	4.50	3.75	2.25	0.30
6 November 2008	3.00	3.25	2.25	0.30
4 December 2008	2.00	2.50	2.25	0.30
9 December 2008	2.00	2.50	1.50	0.30
19 December 2008	2.00	2.50	1.50	0.10
8 January 2009	1.50	2.50	1.50	0.10
15 January 2009	1.50	2.00	1.50	0.10
20 January 2009	1.50	2.00	1.00	0.10
5 February 2009	1.00	2.00	1.00	0.10
3 March 2009	1.00	2.00	0.50	0.10
5 March 2009	0.50	1.50	0.50	0.10
2 April 2009	0.50	1.25	0.50	0.10
21 April 2009	0.50	1.25	0.25	0.10
7 May 2009	0.50	1.00	0.25	0.10
1 June 2010	0.50	1.00	0.50	0.10
20 July 2010	0.50	1.00	0.75	0.10
8 September 2010	0.50	1.00	1.00	0.10
1 October 2010	0.50	1.00	1.00	0.05
Forecast
3 October 2011	0.50	1.00	1.25	0.05
2 January 2012	0.75	1.25	1.25	0.05
2 April 2012	1.00	1.25	1.25	0.05
2 July 2012	1.25	1.50	1.50	0.05
1 October 2012	1.50	1.75	1.50	0.05
31 December 2012	1.50	1.75	1.50	0.05

Bottom-center panel
CPI Ex. Food and Energy*

Four-quarter percent change
Period	United Kingdom	Euro area	Japan
2006:Q1	0.95	1.33	-0.57
2006:Q2	0.88	1.47	-0.52
2006:Q3	0.86	1.44	-0.41
2006:Q4	1.36	1.51	-0.29
2007:Q1	1.53	1.81	-0.30
2007:Q2	1.62	1.85	-0.32
2007:Q3	1.26	1.80	-0.32
2007:Q4	1.04	1.72	-0.18
2008:Q1	0.82	1.70	-0.03
2008:Q2	1.12	1.60	-0.14
2008:Q3	1.63	1.72	0.03
2008:Q4	1.21	1.85	-0.07
2009:Q1	1.17	1.55	-0.34
2009:Q2	1.31	1.62	-0.55
2009:Q3	1.67	1.36	-0.93
2009:Q4	2.18	1.16	-1.15
2010:Q1	3.01	0.94	-1.17
2010:Q2	3.05	0.87	-1.68
2010:Q3	2.64	1.03	-1.57
2010:Q4	2.79	1.14	-0.92
Forecast
2011:Q1	3.97	1.30	-0.52
2011:Q2	3.06	1.25	-0.50
2011:Q3	3.15	1.14	-0.55
2011:Q4	2.82	1.10	-1.16
2012:Q1	1.73	1.18	-1.02
2012:Q2	1.76	1.23	-0.88
2012:Q3	1.82	1.30	-0.77
2012:Q4	2.34	1.38	-0.66

* Staff estimates. Return to text

Bottom-right panel
BBB Corporate Spreads

Weekly
Basis points
Period	United Kingdom	Euro area	Japan
5 January 2007	116.59	76.70	29.35
12 January 2007	113.59	75.10	28.69
19 January 2007	113.20	73.37	27.38
26 January 2007	111.26	73.17	27.30
2 February 2007	111.06	74.65	26.76
9 February 2007	109.95	72.01	26.47
16 February 2007	109.47	71.70	27.65
23 February 2007	108.88	70.11	25.80
2 March 2007	108.71	73.62	24.53
9 March 2007	109.84	74.34	23.81
16 March 2007	111.57	76.26	23.57
23 March 2007	111.19	74.28	24.20
30 March 2007	110.89	72.56	25.23
6 April 2007	111.01	80.19	25.45
13 April 2007	110.97	78.11	25.78
20 April 2007	109.90	75.81	26.15
27 April 2007	109.70	75.39	25.13
4 May 2007	107.67	77.20	25.58
11 May 2007	107.47	76.20	25.54
18 May 2007	107.10	74.62	24.99
25 May 2007	105.01	72.73	25.54
1 June 2007	105.58	70.55	29.02
8 June 2007	106.94	73.06	27.58
15 June 2007	107.79	73.17	28.45
22 June 2007	109.31	73.83	27.87
29 June 2007	113.35	76.93	29.82
6 July 2007	117.34	82.92	27.58
13 July 2007	120.17	85.65	28.00
20 July 2007	123.52	91.54	28.47
27 July 2007	132.03	102.02	27.61
3 August 2007	137.30	108.78	29.21
10 August 2007	132.89	110.44	29.84
17 August 2007	136.91	118.12	29.76
24 August 2007	139.38	118.60	32.93
31 August 2007	143.47	120.49	32.72
7 September 2007	150.43	124.19	31.08
14 September 2007	157.11	131.35	31.64
21 September 2007	147.00	120.52	34.11
28 September 2007	144.51	118.91	35.16
5 October 2007	144.20	118.50	34.55
12 October 2007	139.77	109.28	33.87
19 October 2007	142.31	112.39	34.09
26 October 2007	143.65	111.36	34.15
2 November 2007	145.57	113.87	33.41
9 November 2007	150.85	120.82	33.58
16 November 2007	155.30	129.24	35.01
23 November 2007	164.12	141.04	37.11
30 November 2007	163.58	145.49	38.62
7 December 2007	169.05	150.49	36.84
14 December 2007	171.24	152.87	36.78
21 December 2007	172.55	152.64	37.15
28 December 2007	172.29	153.27	36.12
4 January 2008	170.80	160.51	36.47
11 January 2008	178.27	170.49	35.55
18 January 2008	182.67	182.49	37.72
25 January 2008	191.61	193.14	38.92
1 February 2008	196.92	203.86	41.00
8 February 2008	203.84	211.01	38.84
15 February 2008	212.15	217.53	42.64
22 February 2008	219.39	222.03	44.41
29 February 2008	220.75	222.36	45.49
7 March 2008	230.90	238.34	45.47
14 March 2008	237.05	252.90	46.25
21 March 2008	239.05	253.31	46.06
28 March 2008	239.09	251.03	47.28
4 April 2008	243.69	244.35	47.92
11 April 2008	239.86	236.83	47.84
18 April 2008	233.59	222.79	45.82
25 April 2008	234.66	213.79	46.72
2 May 2008	224.78	199.71	46.05
9 May 2008	219.72	199.75	44.72
16 May 2008	206.60	193.15	44.23
23 May 2008	208.17	193.38	42.26
30 May 2008	206.56	192.28	42.63
6 June 2008	205.14	193.06	37.46
13 June 2008	204.92	192.20	39.50
20 June 2008	208.55	197.46	38.65
27 June 2008	211.58	208.89	39.13
4 July 2008	215.22	216.68	38.15
11 July 2008	210.50	229.89	38.11
18 July 2008	207.78	226.62	39.53
25 July 2008	211.13	228.42	39.33
1 August 2008	208.65	229.02	41.74
8 August 2008	210.69	229.80	44.21
15 August 2008	212.70	227.38	44.16
22 August 2008	211.79	229.76	45.98
29 August 2008	216.39	232.98	47.60
5 September 2008	218.96	246.65	46.35
12 September 2008	218.65	251.21	46.27
19 September 2008	233.25	275.15	46.00
26 September 2008	235.29	297.88	46.69
3 October 2008	243.93	316.40	37.16
10 October 2008	254.73	392.84	33.26
17 October 2008	274.21	441.03	42.00
24 October 2008	289.97	502.48	40.22
31 October 2008	306.78	500.53	42.61
7 November 2008	338.67	481.09	45.50
14 November 2008	361.30	480.68	46.13
21 November 2008	369.90	498.91	46.98
28 November 2008	379.13	505.49	62.36
5 December 2008	395.77	503.76	64.25
12 December 2008	397.44	499.10	66.81
19 December 2008	390.16	496.79	69.50
26 December 2008	393.94	495.05	68.39
2 January 2009	398.44	495.87	70.72
9 January 2009	390.47	460.32	71.96
16 January 2009	382.20	453.43	72.16
23 January 2009	371.96	450.09	72.76
30 January 2009	370.07	457.53	72.79
6 February 2009	342.47	434.64	74.78
13 February 2009	325.65	431.29	72.62
20 February 2009	322.62	437.10	73.40
27 February 2009	326.37	436.59	74.90
6 March 2009	323.40	443.85	68.98
13 March 2009	321.66	449.98	69.66
20 March 2009	327.17	449.51	69.26
27 March 2009	331.00	437.48	71.56
3 April 2009	336.79	432.55	72.24
10 April 2009	336.61	418.35	82.43
17 April 2009	339.21	391.75	84.85
24 April 2009	338.75	386.27	82.55
1 May 2009	331.03	375.11	89.00
8 May 2009	319.65	346.90	89.50
15 May 2009	318.15	334.06	83.50
22 May 2009	313.77	316.75	84.49
29 May 2009	315.63	305.48	71.64
5 June 2009	307.73	297.89	64.89
12 June 2009	302.42	289.56	61.21
19 June 2009	300.00	290.28	61.08
26 June 2009	299.30	293.22	58.06
3 July 2009	293.60	291.68	55.95
10 July 2009	286.87	279.34	57.68
17 July 2009	277.52	267.53	57.24
24 July 2009	268.90	248.51	57.93
31 July 2009	256.53	236.04	57.81
7 August 2009	249.45	229.89	56.42
14 August 2009	244.03	220.99	56.39
21 August 2009	241.94	222.13	54.48
28 August 2009	241.00	216.53	54.16
4 September 2009	236.30	212.26	54.13
11 September 2009	235.79	208.52	53.86
18 September 2009	232.82	201.33	51.89
25 September 2009	233.45	198.87	51.75
2 October 2009	233.84	198.14	46.93
9 October 2009	232.80	193.85	45.76
16 October 2009	225.57	188.59	40.78
23 October 2009	224.91	182.38	37.49
30 October 2009	223.72	181.91	38.06
6 November 2009	220.79	179.44	37.92
13 November 2009	221.44	171.18	35.20
20 November 2009	214.24	166.11	34.37
27 November 2009	211.17	171.50	33.17
4 December 2009	208.22	163.43	32.37
11 December 2009	202.52	169.75	32.65
18 December 2009	195.84	162.20	31.25
25 December 2009	194.23	174.48	33.16
1 January 2010	195.18	182.88	33.44
8 January 2010	180.33	165.18	33.54
15 January 2010	173.34	156.91	33.87
22 January 2010	173.51	161.65	33.88
29 January 2010	170.18	164.61	34.67
5 February 2010	167.94	181.23	40.28
12 February 2010	168.65	187.85	41.71
19 February 2010	170.97	195.04	37.70
26 February 2010	171.34	178.46	37.73
5 March 2010	167.02	180.80	32.27
12 March 2010	164.91	193.48	32.80
19 March 2010	163.98	191.62	32.56
26 March 2010	161.27	188.87	32.48
2 April 2010	162.67	187.45	31.33
9 April 2010	161.42	184.17	27.13
16 April 2010	163.89	180.69	23.59
23 April 2010	156.04	185.18	27.40
30 April 2010	161.43	194.10	27.30
7 May 2010	166.30	240.77	28.44
14 May 2010	164.51	219.24	31.45
21 May 2010	174.70	257.39	32.33
28 May 2010	179.47	253.30	32.98
4 June 2010	183.18	261.78	30.42
11 June 2010	190.00	269.02	29.65
18 June 2010	185.73	256.33	32.96
25 June 2010	184.50	257.27	32.92
2 July 2010	187.32	261.13	32.24
9 July 2010	189.08	260.69	33.58
16 July 2010	188.74	255.60	31.97
23 July 2010	191.47	243.88	24.74
30 July 2010	186.80	229.78	23.65
6 August 2010	184.45	218.42	26.47
13 August 2010	184.18	226.74	28.90
20 August 2010	181.32	226.06	34.83
27 August 2010	183.08	233.99	34.89
3 September 2010	185.54	238.56	33.51
10 September 2010	183.76	236.82	32.81
17 September 2010	186.29	235.02	32.89
24 September 2010	188.03	241.21	29.76
1 October 2010	188.58	247.50	32.21
8 October 2010	195.94	242.49	37.47
15 October 2010	184.48	235.53	34.96
22 October 2010	184.36	234.96	35.09
29 October 2010	186.94	234.29	36.33
5 November 2010	187.53	209.75	39.88
12 November 2010	186.85	218.55	34.13
19 November 2010	187.74	214.71	43.61
26 November 2010	190.95	232.49	37.53
3 December 2010	196.45	237.59	38.08
10 December 2010	194.21	241.10	36.59
17 December 2010	193.19	237.29	39.14
24 December 2010	193.09	238.82	39.04
31 December 2010	194.99	238.31	39.83
7 January 2011	189.87	242.04	41.13
14 January 2011	186.29	240.70	39.97
21 January 2011	183.83	230.89	40.43
28 January 2011	182.57	226.70	40.33

Exhibit 7
Asset Bubbles and Commodity Prices

Top-left panel
Flows to EME Dedicated Funds*

Monthly
Billions of U.S. dollars
Period	Bond funds	Equity funds
December 2006	1.14	3.72
January 2007	1.55	3.52
February 2007	1.19	1.28
March 2007	-0.20	-5.71
April 2007	-0.38	2.16
May 2007	1.31	-0.69
June 2007	1.07	0.89
July 2007	0.10	8.63
August 2007	-1.31	-1.91
September 2007	0.02	7.30
October 2007	0.73	11.01
November 2007	0.13	-4.73
December 2007	0.07	3.86
January 2008	0.10	-10.29
February 2008	0.21	-0.27
March 2008	0.18	-2.84
April 2008	0.43	6.95
May 2008	0.20	5.44
June 2008	-0.45	-4.89
July 2008	-0.32	-6.41
August 2008	-0.54	-2.96
September 2008	-3.39	-5.47
October 2008	-7.40	-7.98
November 2008	-2.51	-1.11
December 2008	-1.22	-0.54
January 2009	-0.77	0.30
February 2009	-1.50	-1.17
March 2009	-0.76	-0.69
April 2009	-0.53	4.71
May 2009	1.02	7.46
June 2009	0.38	4.43
July 2009	0.96	3.01
August 2009	0.83	1.21
September 2009	2.10	1.59
October 2009	2.63	5.27
November 2009	2.30	2.55
December 2009	1.62	1.25
January 2010	1.74	2.09
February 2010	1.89	-1.47
March 2010	4.17	3.20
April 2010	5.06	3.68
May 2010	1.32	-4.63
June 2010	2.91	1.36
July 2010	3.68	3.38
August 2010	3.19	0.88
September 2010	3.93	5.35
October 2010	4.76	7.38
November 2010	1.81	5.29
December 2010	0.60	1.51
January 2011	1.54	4.81

* January 2011 flows are based on data through January 19th. Return to text

Top-right panel
Real Exchange Rates Against the Dollar (USD/FC)

Monthly
January 2007 = 100
Period	China	Brazil	Mexico	Korea	Emerging Markets
January 2007	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
February 2007	100.27	102.03	99.48	100.16	100.31
March 2007	100.39	102.14	98.10	99.15	100.30
April 2007	100.54	104.95	99.10	100.49	101.17
May 2007	101.25	107.25	100.32	100.53	102.07
June 2007	102.68	110.29	100.38	100.62	102.27
July 2007	104.10	113.34	100.78	101.66	103.04
August 2007	105.20	109.23	99.05	99.92	101.95
September 2007	105.77	112.43	99.25	100.62	102.57
October 2007	106.26	118.94	101.20	102.35	104.08
November 2007	107.42	120.54	100.16	101.66	104.59
December 2007	108.36	119.76	100.40	100.38	104.95
January 2008	110.54	120.85	99.82	99.06	105.78
February 2008	113.38	124.10	101.16	98.92	106.85
March 2008	114.39	125.57	101.79	95.24	107.69
April 2008	115.59	127.58	104.05	94.92	108.63
May 2008	115.50	130.03	104.87	90.83	108.29
June 2008	115.83	133.15	105.68	91.04	108.81
July 2008	116.20	135.17	106.62	92.24	109.61
August 2008	115.81	133.89	108.39	89.45	108.68
September 2008	115.76	120.07	103.21	82.46	105.64
October 2008	116.96	100.61	88.27	71.22	99.11
November 2008	118.38	98.75	87.38	69.08	97.10
December 2008	118.25	94.56	86.53	71.51	96.67
January 2009	118.12	98.32	83.43	71.60	95.93
February 2009	117.26	97.80	79.11	67.50	93.69
March 2009	117.33	98.39	79.40	67.32	93.47
April 2009	117.38	103.86	87.16	73.29	96.41
May 2009	117.60	110.97	88.86	77.73	98.24
June 2009	116.47	116.82	87.57	76.99	98.58
July 2009	116.40	118.52	87.62	77.03	98.60
August 2009	116.31	123.86	89.91	78.30	99.46
September 2009	116.58	125.78	87.31	79.98	99.45
October 2009	116.72	131.72	88.51	82.43	100.74
November 2009	116.93	132.81	89.18	83.56	101.15
December 2009	117.48	131.24	90.98	83.71	101.31
January 2010	117.20	129.70	92.00	85.56	101.30
February 2010	117.50	126.41	91.58	84.49	100.26
March 2010	117.68	131.00	94.83	85.84	101.50
April 2010	117.94	134.00	97.31	87.81	102.62
May 2010	118.71	130.52	93.83	84.27	100.88
June 2010	118.80	131.40	94.25	81.00	100.45
July 2010	119.75	133.60	93.53	81.58	100.94
August 2010	119.84	134.03	93.86	83.34	101.53
September 2010	121.26	137.69	93.80	85.61	102.30
October 2010	123.09	141.13	96.82	88.70	104.15
November 2010	124.91	139.76	97.87	87.89	104.17
December 2010	124.46	141.39	97.26	86.80	104.06
January 2011	125.64	143.65	98.72	88.82	105.21

As shown in the chart, increasing values indicate foreign appreciation.

Middle-left panel
Property Prices

January 2007 = 100
Period	China	Hong Kong
January 2007	100.00	100.00
February 2007	100.72	100.70
March 2007	101.32	101.42
April 2007	102.06	101.48
May 2007	103.02	103.48
June 2007	104.06	105.45
July 2007	105.28	107.13
August 2007	106.69	108.33
September 2007	108.36	110.33
October 2007	110.08	114.70
November 2007	111.05	121.05
December 2007	111.35	125.89
January 2008	111.65	129.59
February 2008	112.05	131.32
March 2008	112.37	131.48
April 2008	112.60	128.66
May 2008	112.63	130.53
June 2008	112.68	130.96
July 2008	112.75	129.36
August 2008	112.58	127.34
September 2008	112.31	127.65
October 2008	111.96	120.76
November 2008	111.50	112.09
December 2008	111.00	112.08
January 2009	110.77	112.76
February 2009	110.72	113.07
March 2009	110.91	113.93
April 2009	111.33	117.27
May 2009	111.94	120.85
June 2009	112.90	125.04
July 2009	113.87	127.96
August 2009	114.85	131.54
September 2009	115.47	135.96
October 2009	116.27	138.99
November 2009	117.77	141.34
December 2009	119.59	144.28
January 2010	121.15	145.72
February 2010	122.44	147.72
March 2010	123.75	149.87
April 2010	125.43	151.75
May 2010	125.62	151.21
June 2010	125.59	151.57
July 2010	125.52	155.72
August 2010	125.48	159.67
September 2010	125.90	162.96
October 2010	126.14	168.33
November 2010	126.65	173.95
December 2010	127.07	ND

January 2007 = 100
Period	Singapore*
2007:Q1	100.00
2007:Q2	108.11
2007:Q3	115.78
2007:Q4	123.12
2008:Q1	130.26
2008:Q2	130.05
2008:Q3	125.25
2008:Q4	117.00
2009:Q1	103.08
2009:Q2	97.81
2009:Q3	111.45
2009:Q4	118.80
2010:Q1	129.14
2010:Q2	135.29
2010:Q3	136.87
2010:Q4	139.48

* Data are quarterly. Return to table

Middle-center panel
Corporate Debt Spreads*

Percent
Period	Latin America	Emerging Asia
11 January 2002	10.44	6.94
18 January 2002	10.86	6.93
25 January 2002	10.87	6.84
1 February 2002	10.95	6.65
8 February 2002	11.26	6.64
15 February 2002	11.23	6.60
22 February 2002	11.31	6.60
1 March 2002	13.89	6.66
8 March 2002	17.49	6.52
15 March 2002	17.28	5.77
22 March 2002	17.41	5.59
29 March 2002	17.06	5.56
5 April 2002	17.03	5.61
12 April 2002	17.59	5.56
19 April 2002	18.16	5.80
26 April 2002	18.71	5.47
3 May 2002	15.19	5.41
10 May 2002	14.68	5.35
17 May 2002	15.58	5.28
24 May 2002	15.91	5.41
31 May 2002	16.36	5.57
7 June 2002	17.41	5.58
14 June 2002	18.25	5.65
21 June 2002	19.03	5.69
28 June 2002	20.48	5.64
5 July 2002	20.57	5.84
12 July 2002	21.19	6.08
19 July 2002	21.75	6.25
26 July 2002	21.87	6.48
2 August 2002	24.14	6.56
9 August 2002	24.27	6.80
16 August 2002	23.93	6.83
23 August 2002	23.48	6.87
30 August 2002	23.00	6.88
6 September 2002	21.96	7.05
13 September 2002	21.82	7.03
20 September 2002	21.93	7.09
27 September 2002	22.49	7.16
4 October 2002	23.18	7.16
11 October 2002	23.44	7.16
18 October 2002	23.71	6.89
25 October 2002	24.15	6.79
1 November 2002	24.64	7.02
8 November 2002	24.74	6.88
15 November 2002	24.08	6.56
22 November 2002	22.93	6.41
29 November 2002	22.01	6.32
6 December 2002	20.42	6.43
13 December 2002	20.51	6.58
20 December 2002	19.97	6.59
27 December 2002	19.24	6.62
3 January 2003	18.47	6.73
10 January 2003	17.55	6.55
17 January 2003	17.15	6.54
24 January 2003	17.31	6.54
31 January 2003	17.31	6.48
7 February 2003	16.81	6.48
14 February 2003	16.68	6.44
21 February 2003	16.71	6.44
28 February 2003	17.06	6.52
7 March 2003	17.39	6.61
14 March 2003	17.21	6.58
21 March 2003	17.28	6.36
28 March 2003	17.54	6.43
4 April 2003	15.36	6.48
11 April 2003	14.64	6.37
18 April 2003	14.37	6.25
25 April 2003	14.08	6.14
2 May 2003	13.22	6.21
9 May 2003	12.90	6.04
16 May 2003	12.62	5.97
23 May 2003	12.58	6.02
30 May 2003	12.25	6.11
6 June 2003	11.41	6.10
13 June 2003	11.08	6.05
20 June 2003	10.44	5.80
27 June 2003	10.17	5.70
4 July 2003	9.77	5.61
11 July 2003	9.75	5.56
18 July 2003	9.62	5.43
25 July 2003	9.31	5.18
1 August 2003	9.19	5.08
8 August 2003	9.70	5.20
15 August 2003	9.60	5.09
22 August 2003	9.43	5.15
29 August 2003	8.91	5.00
5 September 2003	7.62	4.99
12 September 2003	7.86	5.13
19 September 2003	7.88	5.20
26 September 2003	7.93	5.25
3 October 2003	6.99	5.27
10 October 2003	6.39	5.06
17 October 2003	6.04	4.93
24 October 2003	5.96	4.95
31 October 2003	5.95	4.94
7 November 2003	5.62	4.64
14 November 2003	5.51	4.57
21 November 2003	5.62	4.66
28 November 2003	5.40	4.62
5 December 2003	5.10	4.54
12 December 2003	5.05	4.60
19 December 2003	4.98	4.59
26 December 2003	4.79	4.52
2 January 2004	4.80	4.49
9 January 2004	4.80	4.49
16 January 2004	4.91	4.58
23 January 2004	4.90	4.52
30 January 2004	4.86	4.44
6 February 2004	5.45	4.53
13 February 2004	5.56	4.63
20 February 2004	5.54	4.61
27 February 2004	5.71	4.50
5 March 2004	5.62	4.58
12 March 2004	5.64	4.74
19 March 2004	5.57	4.67
26 March 2004	5.43	4.64
2 April 2004	5.06	4.41
9 April 2004	4.67	4.14
16 April 2004	4.46	4.00
23 April 2004	4.52	3.91
30 April 2004	4.60	3.87
7 May 2004	4.97	3.87
14 May 2004	5.41	3.96
21 May 2004	5.38	4.01
28 May 2004	5.32	3.98
4 June 2004	5.09	3.98
11 June 2004	4.85	3.91
18 June 2004	4.78	3.90
25 June 2004	4.71	3.91
2 July 2004	4.94	3.60
9 July 2004	5.15	3.48
16 July 2004	4.97	3.46
23 July 2004	4.60	3.30
30 July 2004	4.46	3.22
6 August 2004	4.85	3.55
13 August 2004	4.84	3.53
20 August 2004	4.77	3.52
27 August 2004	4.62	3.60
3 September 2004	4.53	3.65
10 September 2004	4.41	3.60
17 September 2004	4.49	3.63
24 September 2004	4.45	3.63
1 October 2004	4.47	3.67
8 October 2004	4.39	3.68
15 October 2004	4.44	3.73
22 October 2004	4.41	3.69
29 October 2004	4.37	3.69
5 November 2004	4.16	3.76
12 November 2004	3.87	3.65
19 November 2004	3.82	3.60
26 November 2004	3.68	3.49
3 December 2004	3.71	3.56
10 December 2004	3.86	3.73
17 December 2004	3.85	3.68
24 December 2004	3.75	3.62
31 December 2004	3.65	3.54
7 January 2005	3.66	3.49
14 January 2005	3.75	3.31
21 January 2005	3.76	3.25
28 January 2005	3.66	3.15
4 February 2005	3.62	3.13
11 February 2005	3.55	3.12
18 February 2005	3.43	3.00
25 February 2005	3.29	2.92
4 March 2005	3.20	2.86
11 March 2005	3.07	2.76
18 March 2005	3.24	2.71
25 March 2005	3.40	2.78
1 April 2005	3.77	2.88
8 April 2005	3.91	2.99
15 April 2005	3.92	2.97
22 April 2005	4.16	3.05
29 April 2005	3.98	3.02
6 May 2005	3.90	3.15
13 May 2005	3.76	3.16
20 May 2005	3.78	3.11
27 May 2005	3.73	3.11
3 June 2005	3.76	3.15
10 June 2005	3.69	3.14
17 June 2005	3.55	3.07
24 June 2005	3.54	3.06
1 July 2005	3.58	3.13
8 July 2005	3.53	3.20
15 July 2005	3.40	3.19
22 July 2005	3.28	3.08
29 July 2005	3.25	3.05
5 August 2005	3.31	3.08
12 August 2005	3.24	3.02
19 August 2005	3.33	3.05
26 August 2005	3.40	3.08
2 September 2005	3.51	3.16
9 September 2005	3.43	3.13
16 September 2005	3.30	3.05
23 September 2005	3.20	3.03
30 September 2005	3.07	2.98
7 October 2005	3.06	2.95
14 October 2005	3.16	2.90
21 October 2005	3.29	2.88
28 October 2005	3.22	2.82
4 November 2005	3.25	2.73
11 November 2005	3.27	2.69
18 November 2005	3.32	2.68
25 November 2005	3.37	2.66
2 December 2005	3.31	2.59
9 December 2005	3.23	2.58
16 December 2005	3.21	2.60
23 December 2005	3.21	2.59
30 December 2005	3.25	2.61
6 January 2006	3.13	2.62
13 January 2006	3.00	2.57
20 January 2006	3.04	2.60
27 January 2006	2.92	2.51
3 February 2006	2.89	2.43
10 February 2006	2.80	2.35
17 February 2006	2.67	2.33
24 February 2006	2.64	2.31
3 March 2006	2.54	2.26
10 March 2006	2.52	2.26
17 March 2006	2.68	2.31
24 March 2006	2.64	2.28
31 March 2006	2.64	2.23
7 April 2006	2.64	2.29
14 April 2006	2.67	2.27
21 April 2006	2.64	2.25
28 April 2006	2.60	2.24
5 May 2006	2.59	2.29
12 May 2006	2.56	2.21
19 May 2006	2.77	2.26
26 May 2006	3.03	2.40
2 June 2006	3.17	2.76
9 June 2006	3.22	3.14
16 June 2006	3.19	3.22
23 June 2006	3.05	3.09
30 June 2006	3.22	3.17
7 July 2006	3.22	3.16
14 July 2006	3.13	3.16
21 July 2006	3.04	3.20
28 July 2006	2.93	3.18
4 August 2006	3.27	3.18
11 August 2006	3.16	3.14
18 August 2006	3.13	3.17
25 August 2006	3.16	3.18
1 September 2006	3.26	3.15
8 September 2006	3.29	3.11
15 September 2006	3.30	3.10
22 September 2006	3.37	3.18
29 September 2006	3.51	3.25
6 October 2006	3.55	3.24
13 October 2006	3.32	3.07
20 October 2006	3.28	3.01
27 October 2006	3.26	2.98
3 November 2006	3.41	3.02
10 November 2006	3.36	2.96
17 November 2006	3.31	2.91
24 November 2006	3.39	2.91
1 December 2006	3.51	3.02
8 December 2006	3.57	3.06
15 December 2006	3.41	2.98
22 December 2006	3.33	2.95
29 December 2006	3.22	2.84
5 January 2007	3.23	3.16
12 January 2007	3.19	3.13
19 January 2007	3.14	3.08
26 January 2007	3.10	2.99
2 February 2007	3.11	3.04
9 February 2007	3.13	3.05
16 February 2007	3.06	3.06
23 February 2007	3.08	3.09
2 March 2007	3.31	3.26
9 March 2007	3.44	3.39
16 March 2007	3.39	3.36
23 March 2007	3.33	3.28
30 March 2007	3.20	3.19
6 April 2007	3.11	3.12
13 April 2007	2.98	3.01
20 April 2007	3.01	3.02
27 April 2007	3.00	2.99
4 May 2007	3.09	3.04
11 May 2007	3.10	3.02
18 May 2007	3.03	2.92
25 May 2007	2.90	2.82
1 June 2007	2.90	2.78
8 June 2007	2.88	2.72
15 June 2007	2.96	2.66
22 June 2007	3.00	2.71
29 June 2007	3.20	2.83
6 July 2007	3.20	2.94
13 July 2007	3.21	2.96
20 July 2007	3.25	3.03
27 July 2007	3.74	3.28
3 August 2007	4.24	3.74
10 August 2007	4.26	3.69
17 August 2007	4.72	3.94
24 August 2007	4.93	4.38
31 August 2007	4.96	4.33
7 September 2007	5.03	4.42
14 September 2007	5.02	4.42
21 September 2007	4.53	4.12
28 September 2007	4.38	4.00
5 October 2007	4.43	4.01
12 October 2007	4.21	3.79
19 October 2007	4.25	3.87
26 October 2007	4.50	4.00
2 November 2007	4.46	4.01
9 November 2007	4.76	4.26
16 November 2007	5.04	4.44
23 November 2007	5.54	4.72
30 November 2007	5.78	5.00
7 December 2007	5.71	5.14
14 December 2007	5.52	4.99
21 December 2007	5.57	4.99
28 December 2007	5.39	4.88
4 January 2008	5.69	5.10
11 January 2008	5.86	5.46
18 January 2008	6.09	5.70
25 January 2008	6.37	5.96
1 February 2008	6.25	5.94
8 February 2008	6.36	6.02
15 February 2008	6.32	6.04
22 February 2008	6.18	5.95
29 February 2008	6.23	6.03
7 March 2008	6.66	6.25
14 March 2008	6.81	6.39
21 March 2008	7.06	6.61
28 March 2008	6.88	6.43
4 April 2008	6.84	6.50
11 April 2008	6.74	6.48
18 April 2008	6.50	6.37
25 April 2008	6.19	6.09
2 May 2008	6.20	6.07
9 May 2008	6.24	6.03
16 May 2008	6.20	5.94
23 May 2008	6.14	5.83
30 May 2008	5.89	5.69
6 June 2008	5.99	5.89
13 June 2008	5.67	5.67
20 June 2008	5.63	5.70
27 June 2008	5.92	5.97
4 July 2008	7.08	6.31
11 July 2008	7.38	6.59
18 July 2008	7.50	6.47
25 July 2008	7.30	6.27
1 August 2008	7.50	6.35
8 August 2008	7.69	6.40
15 August 2008	7.96	6.42
22 August 2008	8.03	6.57
29 August 2008	7.95	6.64
5 September 2008	7.97	6.76
12 September 2008	8.26	6.89
19 September 2008	9.15	7.39
26 September 2008	9.07	7.68
3 October 2008	10.18	8.46
10 October 2008	11.58	9.73
17 October 2008	12.85	11.13
24 October 2008	15.53	13.78
31 October 2008	18.05	19.53
7 November 2008	18.06	19.85
14 November 2008	19.19	19.65
21 November 2008	19.76	20.65
28 November 2008	19.64	20.83
5 December 2008	20.30	21.94
12 December 2008	20.18	22.11
19 December 2008	19.93	22.67
26 December 2008	19.00	22.60
2 January 2009	18.81	22.16
9 January 2009	18.07	21.40
16 January 2009	17.52	20.73
23 January 2009	17.43	20.16
30 January 2009	16.88	19.78
6 February 2009	16.73	20.11
13 February 2009	16.70	19.45
20 February 2009	16.48	19.48
27 February 2009	16.32	19.70
6 March 2009	16.85	20.47
13 March 2009	17.14	20.28
20 March 2009	17.07	20.01
27 March 2009	16.69	19.47
3 April 2009	16.82	20.30
10 April 2009	16.24	19.99
17 April 2009	15.46	19.66
24 April 2009	15.16	19.27
1 May 2009	14.83	18.66
8 May 2009	14.49	17.48
15 May 2009	14.16	17.35
22 May 2009	13.79	17.10
29 May 2009	13.47	16.43
5 June 2009	12.26	13.47
12 June 2009	11.42	12.84
19 June 2009	11.50	13.14
26 June 2009	11.73	13.37
3 July 2009	11.83	12.74
10 July 2009	11.94	12.87
17 July 2009	11.75	12.48
24 July 2009	11.53	11.50
31 July 2009	11.11	10.79
7 August 2009	10.51	8.46
14 August 2009	10.36	8.43
21 August 2009	10.50	8.56
28 August 2009	10.34	8.48
4 September 2009	10.36	8.20
11 September 2009	10.19	7.99
18 September 2009	9.62	7.59
25 September 2009	9.35	7.44
2 October 2009	9.40	7.60
9 October 2009	9.16	7.50
16 October 2009	8.73	7.24
23 October 2009	8.77	7.15
30 October 2009	8.69	7.36
6 November 2009	9.20	7.52
13 November 2009	9.27	7.46
20 November 2009	9.35	7.54
27 November 2009	9.40	7.45
4 December 2009	10.37	7.54
11 December 2009	10.18	7.33
18 December 2009	9.82	7.22
25 December 2009	9.61	6.97
1 January 2010	9.60	6.68
8 January 2010	9.48	6.65
15 January 2010	8.88	6.70
22 January 2010	9.19	6.72
29 January 2010	9.46	6.70
5 February 2010	9.44	6.64
12 February 2010	9.57	6.76
19 February 2010	9.46	6.72
26 February 2010	9.41	6.66
5 March 2010	9.20	6.22
12 March 2010	8.93	5.92
19 March 2010	8.64	5.62
26 March 2010	8.45	5.44
2 April 2010	8.47	5.30
9 April 2010	8.16	5.14
16 April 2010	7.86	5.03
23 April 2010	7.73	5.01
30 April 2010	7.66	5.01
7 May 2010	8.40	5.37
14 May 2010	8.80	5.49
21 May 2010	9.26	5.77
28 May 2010	9.76	6.12
4 June 2010	9.79	6.27
11 June 2010	10.06	6.34
18 June 2010	9.76	6.10
25 June 2010	9.59	6.01
2 July 2010	9.89	6.26
9 July 2010	9.91	6.21
16 July 2010	9.66	5.95
23 July 2010	9.60	5.94
30 July 2010	9.33	5.72
6 August 2010	9.07	5.83
13 August 2010	9.17	5.73
20 August 2010	9.22	5.47
27 August 2010	9.40	5.43
3 September 2010	9.56	5.62
10 September 2010	9.54	5.56
17 September 2010	9.54	5.63
24 September 2010	9.44	5.70
1 October 2010	9.34	5.60
8 October 2010	9.30	5.50
15 October 2010	8.94	5.35
22 October 2010	9.09	5.42
29 October 2010	8.86	5.34
5 November 2010	9.51	5.46
12 November 2010	9.38	5.29
19 November 2010	9.45	5.32
26 November 2010	9.57	5.39
3 December 2010	9.67	5.44

* Source: Merrill Lynch. U.S. dollar-denominated debt over five-year Treasury rate, composite BB- rating for Asia, B for Latin America. Return to text

Middle-right panel
Policy Rates

Percent
Period	China*	Brazil	Mexico	Korea
1 January 2007	6.12	ND	ND	ND
2 January 2007	6.12	ND	ND	4.50
3 January 2007	6.12	13.25	ND	4.50
24 January 2007	6.12	13.00	ND	4.50
26 January 2007	6.12	13.00	7.00	4.50
1 March 2007	6.39	13.00	7.00	4.50
7 March 2007	6.39	12.75	7.00	4.50
19 April 2007	6.39	12.50	7.00	4.50
27 April 2007	6.39	12.50	7.25	4.50
1 May 2007	6.57	12.50	7.25	4.50
6 June 2007	6.57	12.00	7.25	4.50
2 July 2007	6.84	12.00	7.25	4.50
12 July 2007	6.84	12.00	7.25	4.75
19 July 2007	6.84	11.50	7.25	4.75
1 August 2007	7.02	11.50	7.25	4.75
9 August 2007	7.02	11.50	7.25	5.00
3 September 2007	7.29	11.50	7.25	5.00
6 September 2007	7.29	11.25	7.25	5.00
26 October 2007	7.29	11.25	7.50	5.00
3 December 2007	7.47	11.25	7.50	5.00
17 April 2008	7.47	11.75	7.50	5.00
5 June 2008	7.47	12.25	7.50	5.00
20 June 2008	7.47	12.25	7.75	5.00
18 July 2008	7.47	12.25	8.00	5.00
24 July 2008	7.47	13.00	8.00	5.00
7 August 2008	7.47	13.00	8.00	5.25
15 August 2008	7.47	13.00	8.25	5.25
1 September 2008	7.20	13.00	8.25	5.25
11 September 2008	7.20	13.75	8.25	5.25
1 October 2008	6.66	13.75	8.25	5.25
9 October 2008	6.66	13.75	8.25	5.00
27 October 2008	6.66	13.75	8.25	4.25
3 November 2008	5.58	13.75	8.25	4.25
7 November 2008	5.58	13.75	8.25	4.00
1 December 2008	5.31	13.75	8.25	4.00
11 December 2008	5.31	13.75	8.25	3.00
9 January 2009	5.31	13.75	8.25	2.50
16 January 2009	5.31	13.75	7.75	2.50
21 January 2009	5.31	12.75	7.75	2.50
12 February 2009	5.31	12.75	7.75	2.00
20 February 2009	5.31	12.75	7.50	2.00
11 March 2009	5.31	11.25	7.50	2.00
20 March 2009	5.31	11.25	6.75	2.00
17 April 2009	5.31	11.25	6.00	2.00
29 April 2009	5.31	10.25	6.00	2.00
15 May 2009	5.31	10.25	5.25	2.00
10 June 2009	5.31	9.25	5.25	2.00
19 June 2009	5.31	9.25	4.75	2.00
17 July 2009	5.31	9.25	4.50	2.00
22 July 2009	5.31	8.75	4.50	2.00
28 April 2010	5.31	9.50	4.50	2.00
9 June 2010	5.31	10.25	4.50	2.00
9 July 2010	5.31	10.25	4.50	2.25
21 July 2010	5.31	10.75	4.50	2.25
1 October 2010	5.56	10.75	4.50	2.25
16 November 2010	5.56	10.75	4.50	2.50
1 December 2010	5.81	10.75	4.50	2.50
3 January 2011	6.06	10.75	4.50	2.50
13 January 2011	6.06	10.75	4.50	2.75
19 January 2011	6.06	11.25	4.50	2.75
Forecast
25 January 2011	6.06	11.50	4.50	2.75
26 January 2011	6.06	11.50	4.50	3.00
1 April 2011	6.31	12.00	4.50	3.25
1 July 2011	6.56	12.25	4.50	3.50
3 October 2011	6.56	12.50	4.50	3.50
2 January 2012	6.81	12.50	4.75	3.50
2 April 2012	6.81	12.50	5.25	3.50
2 July 2012	7.06	12.25	6.00	3.50
1 October 2012	7.06	12.00	6.00	3.50
31 December 2012	7.06	12.00	6.00	3.50

* Rate for China is the one-year lending rate. Return to table

Bottom-left panel
Emerging Market CPI

12-month percent change
Period	Headline CPI	Excluding food
January 2006	4.95	5.79
February 2006	4.62	5.59
March 2006	4.39	5.54
April 2006	4.44	5.60
May 2006	4.57	5.76
June 2006	4.66	5.82
July 2006	4.52	5.87
August 2006	4.61	5.78
September 2006	4.59	5.51
October 2006	4.18	5.03
November 2006	4.24	4.90
December 2006	4.59	4.91
January 2007	4.31	4.47
February 2007	4.48	4.66
March 2007	4.62	4.66
April 2007	4.50	4.50
May 2007	4.50	4.46
June 2007	4.81	4.41
July 2007	5.07	4.19
August 2007	5.34	4.12
September 2007	5.35	4.15
October 2007	5.79	4.32
November 2007	6.21	4.76
December 2007	6.14	4.82
January 2008	6.74	5.08
February 2008	7.52	5.21
March 2008	7.79	5.51
April 2008	8.16	5.68
May 2008	8.36	5.86
June 2008	8.77	6.60
July 2008	8.75	7.00
August 2008	8.22	6.96
September 2008	7.96	6.88
October 2008	7.63	6.63
November 2008	6.71	5.76
December 2008	5.86	4.99
January 2009	5.18	4.27
February 2009	3.82	3.88
March 2009	3.71	3.59
April 2009	3.26	3.30
May 2009	2.95	3.03
June 2009	2.26	2.42
July 2009	2.04	2.20
August 2009	2.40	2.42
September 2009	2.57	2.54
October 2009	2.57	2.75
November 2009	3.22	3.42
December 2009	4.04	4.17
January 2010	4.12	4.54
February 2010	4.79	4.81
March 2010	4.66	4.81
April 2010	4.95	5.05
May 2010	4.99	5.14
June 2010	4.84	5.01
July 2010	4.91	4.89
August 2010	4.93	4.78
September 2010	5.13	4.66
October 2010	5.49	4.67
November 2010	5.72	4.77
December 2010	5.75	ND

Bottom-right panel
Commodity Prices

Period	Oil import price (Dollars per barrel)	Nonfuel index (January 2008 = 100)
January 2007	53.11	89.99
February 2007	52.60	91.99
March 2007	56.21	93.94
April 2007	60.94	98.64
May 2007	64.12	99.77
June 2007	65.37	98.39
July 2007	69.08	97.78
August 2007	70.25	93.14
September 2007	70.43	94.61
October 2007	74.67	95.80
November 2007	81.97	95.17
December 2007	84.01	94.13
January 2008	85.42	100.00
February 2008	85.69	106.49
March 2008	91.58	110.31
April 2008	98.90	109.67
May 2008	108.44	108.20
June 2008	118.63	109.08
July 2008	124.66	109.68
August 2008	118.62	103.15
September 2008	107.11	97.78
October 2008	91.53	82.99
November 2008	65.00	76.26
December 2008	49.01	70.01
January 2009	40.91	70.90
February 2009	40.92	69.10
March 2009	42.87	68.69
April 2009	47.69	72.26
May 2009	52.72	76.21
June 2009	60.86	79.16
July 2009	63.26	79.84
August 2009	66.53	84.64
September 2009	69.08	83.62
October 2009	68.70	84.84
November 2009	73.36	87.94
December 2009	73.67	91.18
January 2010	75.49	92.47
February 2010	73.87	90.36
March 2010	75.98	93.51
April 2010	78.84	100.23
May 2010	78.26	95.28
June 2010	73.87	93.02
July 2010	73.80	97.13
August 2010	74.80	101.77
September 2010	73.61	104.71
October 2010	76.11	108.69
November 2010	78.60	111.63
December 2010	86.97	116.50
Forecast
January 2011	88.38	119.08
February 2011	88.70	119.05
March 2011	89.21	119.16
April 2011	89.76	119.28
May 2011	90.46	119.34
June 2011	90.98	119.32
July 2011	91.29	119.32
August 2011	91.45	119.04
September 2011	91.63	118.74
October 2011	91.83	118.49
November 2011	92.00	118.28
December 2011	92.14	118.14
January 2012	92.16	118.12
February 2012	92.14	118.08
March 2012	92.11	118.03
April 2012	92.07	117.91
May 2012	92.04	117.78
June 2012	92.01	117.64
July 2012	91.93	117.50
August 2012	91.84	117.16
September 2012	91.76	116.83
October 2012	91.70	116.65
November 2012	91.67	116.52
December 2012	91.69	116.48

Exhibit 8
U.S. Trade Outlook

Top-left panel
Real Exports and Imports

Percent change, a.r.
Period	Real exports	Real imports
2008:Q1	5.72	-1.42
2008:Q2	13.24	2.94
2008:Q3	-5.01	-0.11
2008:Q4	-21.91	-22.86
2009:Q1	-27.76	-35.26
2009:Q2	-1.03	-10.63
2009:Q3	12.18	21.93
2009:Q4	24.36	4.92
2010:Q1	11.37	11.21
2010:Q2	9.12	33.46
2010:Q3	6.76	16.81
Forecast
2010:Q4	8.90	-13.82
2011:Q1	10.14	9.32
2011:Q2	9.08	8.80
2011:Q3	8.69	8.26
2011:Q4	8.78	0.75
2012:Q1	8.88	4.98
2012:Q2	8.59	5.81
2012:Q3	8.44	7.48
2012:Q4	8.49	5.62

Top-right panel
Contribution of Net Exports to Real GDP Growth

Period	Percentage points, a.r.
2009:H1	2.2
2009:H2	0.3
2010:Q1	-0.3
2010:Q2	-3.5
2010:Q3	-1.7
Forecast
2010:Q4	3.5
2011	0.1
2012	0.2

[Data are approximate.]

Middle-left panel
Imports and Industrial Production*

Industrial production (percent change, a.r.)**	Change in import penetration (percentage points)**
-2.43	0.11
-0.92	0.50
-0.35	1.10
0.89	0.55
2.70	-0.02
3.08	1.05
3.29	0.67
3.33	0.09
3.37	0.45
3.92	1.28
4.80	0.31
5.34	1.24
6.09	0.17
9.51	0.76
9.71	0.41
10.43	1.56
13.17	0.73
14.56	0.65
15.47	2.13
16.08	1.07
30.34	0.39

[As shown in the chart, a trend line begins at about (-10,0.45) and ends at about (35,1.2).]

* 21 disaggregated manufacturing sectors. Return to text

** From 2009:Q2 to 2010:Q3. Return to table

Middle-right panel
Real Core Exports and Imports*

Billions of chained (2005) dollars, a.r.
Period	Exports: Actual	Exports: Model solution	Imports: Actual	Imports: Model solution
2008:Q1	1022.67	1010.81	1382.99	1364.50
2008:Q2	1056.65	1021.81	1391.28	1352.77
2008:Q3	1051.69	1031.83	1364.88	1322.56
2008:Q4	976.25	1018.06	1248.43	1269.28
2009:Q1	878.97	987.49	1080.33	1224.67
2009:Q2	870.93	999.29	1035.39	1211.00
2009:Q3	909.02	1018.07	1099.20	1221.69
2009:Q4	969.45	1038.88	1151.84	1252.89
2010:Q1	999.19	1060.07	1193.84	1286.06
2010:Q2	1021.39	1080.49	1278.55	1304.36
2010:Q3	1041.12	1087.74	1326.20	1315.52
Forecast
2010:Q4	1070.65	1099.87	1312.89	1329.23
2011:Q1	1098.73	1114.77	1339.22	1344.29
2011:Q2	1125.25	1133.34	1359.04	1360.85
2011:Q3	1150.83	1156.33	1376.89	1378.81
2011:Q4	1177.23	1182.90	1396.57	1398.44
2012:Q1	1204.25	1210.11	1416.89	1418.84
2012:Q2	1230.53	1236.59	1438.07	1440.43
2012:Q3	1256.86	1263.12	1461.99	1464.38
2012:Q4	1283.97	1290.43	1489.16	1491.22

* Core exports exclude computers, semiconductors, and services. Core imports also exclude petroleum and natural gas. Return to text

Bottom-left panel
Broad Real Dollar

Period	Index, 2008:Q1 = 100
2000:Q1	117.52
2000:Q2	120.45
2000:Q3	121.91
2000:Q4	125.10
2001:Q1	126.27
2001:Q2	128.84
2001:Q3	128.39
2001:Q4	128.86
2002:Q1	130.74
2002:Q2	128.69
2002:Q3	126.41
2002:Q4	127.35
2003:Q1	124.84
2003:Q2	120.19
2003:Q3	120.49
2003:Q4	116.61
2004:Q1	114.62
2004:Q2	117.29
2004:Q3	116.32
2004:Q4	112.46
2005:Q1	111.35
2005:Q2	112.78
2005:Q3	113.96
2005:Q4	115.13
2006:Q1	113.42
2006:Q2	112.08
2006:Q3	112.08
2006:Q4	110.30
2007:Q1	110.26
2007:Q2	108.11
2007:Q3	105.88
2007:Q4	102.22
2008:Q1	100.00
2008:Q2	98.32
2008:Q3	100.87
2008:Q4	109.13
2009:Q1	111.47
2009:Q2	107.50
2009:Q3	104.45
2009:Q4	101.57
2010:Q1	102.46
2010:Q2	103.44
2010:Q3	102.03
2010:Q4	98.29
Forecast
2011:Q1	97.31
2011:Q2	96.46
2011:Q3	95.76
2011:Q4	95.01
2012:Q1	94.17
2012:Q2	93.26
2012:Q3	92.37
2012:Q4	91.47

Bottom-right panel
Current Account Balance

Period	Percent of GDP
2001:Q1	-4.22
2001:Q2	-3.78
2001:Q3	-4.05
2001:Q4	-3.39
2002:Q1	-3.96
2002:Q2	-4.35
2002:Q3	-4.33
2002:Q4	-4.57
2003:Q1	-4.96
2003:Q2	-4.73
2003:Q3	-4.62
2003:Q4	-4.41
2004:Q1	-4.71
2004:Q2	-5.29
2004:Q3	-5.31
2004:Q4	-5.91
2005:Q1	-5.64
2005:Q2	-5.72
2005:Q3	-5.81
2005:Q4	-6.48
2006:Q1	-6.01
2006:Q2	-6.04
2006:Q3	-6.38
2006:Q4	-5.54
2007:Q1	-5.74
2007:Q2	-5.47
2007:Q3	-4.83
2007:Q4	-4.41
2008:Q1	-4.80
2008:Q2	-4.89
2008:Q3	-4.76
2008:Q4	-4.16
2009:Q1	-2.72
2009:Q2	-2.41
2009:Q3	-2.76
2009:Q4	-2.83
2010:Q1	-3.02
2010:Q2	-3.38
2010:Q3	-3.45
Forecast
2010:Q4	-3.10
2011:Q1	-3.34
2011:Q2	-3.33
2011:Q3	-3.40
2011:Q4	-3.11
2012:Q1	-3.05
2012:Q2	-2.87
2012:Q3	-2.86
2012:Q4	-2.71

Exhibit 9
Financial Market Developments

Top-left panel
Treasury and Corporate Rates

Daily
Percent
Date	10-year Treasury note	10-year Corporate BBB
4 January 2010	3.85	5.97
5 January 2010	3.77	5.86
6 January 2010	3.85	5.88
7 January 2010	3.85	5.87
8 January 2010	3.83	5.84
11 January 2010	3.85	5.85
12 January 2010	3.74	5.75
13 January 2010	3.80	5.81
14 January 2010	3.76	5.75
15 January 2010	3.70	5.71
18 January 2010	ND	ND
19 January 2010	3.73	5.75
20 January 2010	3.68	5.71
21 January 2010	3.62	5.67
22 January 2010	3.62	5.68
25 January 2010	3.66	5.73
26 January 2010	3.65	5.74
27 January 2010	3.66	5.75
28 January 2010	3.68	5.78
29 January 2010	3.63	5.72
1 February 2010	3.68	5.79
2 February 2010	3.67	5.76
3 February 2010	3.73	5.82
4 February 2010	3.62	5.76
5 February 2010	3.59	5.72
8 February 2010	3.62	5.77
9 February 2010	3.67	5.83
10 February 2010	3.72	5.91
11 February 2010	3.73	5.92
12 February 2010	3.69	5.89
15 February 2010	ND	ND
16 February 2010	3.66	5.87
17 February 2010	3.74	5.95
18 February 2010	3.79	5.97
19 February 2010	3.78	5.93
22 February 2010	3.80	5.94
23 February 2010	3.69	5.82
24 February 2010	3.70	5.83
25 February 2010	3.64	5.78
26 February 2010	3.61	5.72
1 March 2010	3.61	5.68
2 March 2010	3.62	5.62
3 March 2010	3.63	5.73
4 March 2010	3.61	5.70
5 March 2010	3.69	5.76
8 March 2010	3.72	5.76
9 March 2010	3.71	5.74
10 March 2010	3.73	5.75
11 March 2010	3.73	5.74
12 March 2010	3.71	5.73
15 March 2010	3.71	5.72
16 March 2010	3.66	5.66
17 March 2010	3.65	5.65
18 March 2010	3.68	5.67
19 March 2010	3.70	5.67
22 March 2010	3.67	5.65
23 March 2010	3.69	5.66
24 March 2010	3.84	5.80
25 March 2010	3.91	5.85
26 March 2010	3.86	5.81
29 March 2010	3.88	5.81
30 March 2010	3.88	5.81
31 March 2010	3.84	5.76
1 April 2010	3.89	5.77
2 April 2010	3.96	ND
5 April 2010	4.01	5.83
6 April 2010	3.98	5.83
7 April 2010	3.89	5.71
8 April 2010	3.91	5.74
9 April 2010	3.90	5.73
12 April 2010	3.87	5.66
13 April 2010	3.84	5.64
14 April 2010	3.88	5.69
15 April 2010	3.86	5.64
16 April 2010	3.79	5.58
19 April 2010	3.83	5.60
20 April 2010	3.82	5.59
21 April 2010	3.77	5.53
22 April 2010	3.80	5.55
23 April 2010	3.84	5.61
26 April 2010	3.83	5.59
27 April 2010	3.71	5.50
28 April 2010	3.80	5.58
29 April 2010	3.76	5.53
30 April 2010	3.69	5.46
3 May 2010	3.72	5.52
4 May 2010	3.63	5.43
5 May 2010	3.58	5.40
6 May 2010	3.41	5.33
7 May 2010	3.45	5.47
10 May 2010	3.57	5.52
11 May 2010	3.56	5.57
12 May 2010	3.56	5.56
13 May 2010	3.55	5.52
14 May 2010	3.44	5.47
17 May 2010	3.47	5.49
18 May 2010	3.38	5.48
19 May 2010	3.36	5.39
20 May 2010	3.25	5.42
21 May 2010	3.20	5.39
24 May 2010	3.23	5.41
25 May 2010	3.18	5.46
26 May 2010	3.21	5.47
27 May 2010	3.34	5.59
28 May 2010	3.31	5.55
31 May 2010	ND	ND
1 June 2010	3.29	5.58
2 June 2010	3.35	5.64
3 June 2010	3.39	5.66
4 June 2010	3.20	5.47
7 June 2010	3.17	5.56
8 June 2010	3.18	5.57
9 June 2010	3.20	5.60
10 June 2010	3.33	5.70
11 June 2010	3.24	5.60
14 June 2010	3.28	5.71
15 June 2010	3.32	5.67
16 June 2010	3.27	5.61
17 June 2010	3.21	5.53
18 June 2010	3.24	5.60
21 June 2010	3.26	5.59
22 June 2010	3.18	5.52
23 June 2010	3.13	5.44
24 June 2010	3.14	5.55
25 June 2010	3.12	5.44
28 June 2010	3.05	5.37
29 June 2010	2.97	5.33
30 June 2010	2.97	5.30
1 July 2010	2.96	5.29
2 July 2010	3.00	5.49
5 July 2010	ND	ND
6 July 2010	2.95	5.29
7 July 2010	3.00	5.36
8 July 2010	3.04	5.44
9 July 2010	3.07	5.47
12 July 2010	3.08	5.41
13 July 2010	3.15	5.42
14 July 2010	3.07	5.40
15 July 2010	3.00	5.28
16 July 2010	2.96	5.38
19 July 2010	2.99	5.39
20 July 2010	2.98	5.25
21 July 2010	2.90	5.19
22 July 2010	2.96	5.18
23 July 2010	3.02	5.27
26 July 2010	3.03	5.19
27 July 2010	3.08	5.24
28 July 2010	3.03	5.16
29 July 2010	3.03	5.17
30 July 2010	2.94	5.08
2 August 2010	2.99	5.15
3 August 2010	2.94	5.08
4 August 2010	2.98	5.10
5 August 2010	2.94	5.15
6 August 2010	2.86	5.07
9 August 2010	2.86	5.06
10 August 2010	2.79	5.05
11 August 2010	2.72	4.98
12 August 2010	2.74	5.01
13 August 2010	2.68	4.98
16 August 2010	2.58	4.88
17 August 2010	2.64	4.95
18 August 2010	2.64	4.92
19 August 2010	2.58	4.86
20 August 2010	2.62	4.89
23 August 2010	2.60	4.89
24 August 2010	2.50	4.80
25 August 2010	2.54	4.86
26 August 2010	2.50	4.83
27 August 2010	2.66	4.99
30 August 2010	2.54	4.90
31 August 2010	2.47	4.86
1 September 2010	2.58	4.96
2 September 2010	2.63	4.99
3 September 2010	2.72	5.04
6 September 2010	ND	ND
7 September 2010	2.61	4.94
8 September 2010	2.66	4.99
9 September 2010	2.77	5.09
10 September 2010	2.81	5.09
13 September 2010	2.74	5.03
14 September 2010	2.68	4.96
15 September 2010	2.74	5.02
16 September 2010	2.77	5.05
17 September 2010	2.75	5.05
20 September 2010	2.72	5.01
21 September 2010	2.61	4.90
22 September 2010	2.56	4.87
23 September 2010	2.56	4.88
24 September 2010	2.62	4.92
27 September 2010	2.54	4.83
28 September 2010	2.48	4.78
29 September 2010	2.52	4.82
30 September 2010	2.53	4.76
1 October 2010	2.54	4.77
4 October 2010	2.50	4.74
5 October 2010	2.50	4.76
6 October 2010	2.41	4.67
7 October 2010	2.41	4.67
8 October 2010	2.41	4.64
11 October 2010	ND	ND
12 October 2010	2.44	4.68
13 October 2010	2.46	4.68
14 October 2010	2.52	4.74
15 October 2010	2.59	4.82
18 October 2010	2.52	4.73
19 October 2010	2.50	4.71
20 October 2010	2.51	4.71
21 October 2010	2.57	4.76
22 October 2010	2.59	4.78
25 October 2010	2.59	4.77
26 October 2010	2.67	4.85
27 October 2010	2.75	4.91
28 October 2010	2.69	4.85
29 October 2010	2.63	4.79
1 November 2010	2.66	4.80
2 November 2010	2.63	4.75
3 November 2010	2.67	4.77
4 November 2010	2.53	4.61
5 November 2010	2.58	4.65
8 November 2010	2.60	4.67
9 November 2010	2.72	4.78
10 November 2010	2.65	4.75
11 November 2010	ND	ND
12 November 2010	2.76	4.88
15 November 2010	2.92	5.07
16 November 2010	2.85	5.02
17 November 2010	2.89	5.06
18 November 2010	2.90	5.08
19 November 2010	2.88	5.05
22 November 2010	2.80	4.99
23 November 2010	2.77	4.96
24 November 2010	2.93	5.10
25 November 2010	ND	ND
26 November 2010	2.87	5.05
29 November 2010	2.84	5.04
30 November 2010	2.81	5.03
1 December 2010	2.97	5.20
2 December 2010	3.01	5.23
3 December 2010	3.03	5.23
6 December 2010	2.95	5.14
7 December 2010	3.15	5.35
8 December 2010	3.26	5.42
9 December 2010	3.23	5.40
10 December 2010	3.32	5.45
13 December 2010	3.29	5.43
14 December 2010	3.49	5.58
15 December 2010	3.53	5.63
16 December 2010	3.47	5.60
17 December 2010	3.33	5.47
20 December 2010	3.36	5.49
21 December 2010	3.35	5.46
22 December 2010	3.36	5.47
23 December 2010	3.41	5.51
24 December 2010	ND	ND
27 December 2010	3.36	5.47
28 December 2010	3.50	5.58
29 December 2010	3.35	5.41
30 December 2010	3.38	5.43
31 December 2010	3.30	5.36
3 January 2011	3.36	5.39
4 January 2011	3.36	5.39
5 January 2011	3.50	5.50
6 January 2011	3.44	5.43
7 January 2011	3.34	5.36
10 January 2011	3.32	5.34
11 January 2011	3.37	5.36
12 January 2011	3.40	5.36
13 January 2011	3.34	5.33
14 January 2011	3.35	5.36
17 January 2011	ND	ND
18 January 2011	3.39	5.38
19 January 2011	3.37	5.35
20 January 2011	3.47	5.46
21 January 2011	3.44	5.42
24 January 2011	3.43	5.40

Top-right panel
Near- and Far-term Forward Spreads for BBB Bonds*

Weekly
Percentage points
Period	Near-term	Far-term
14 January 1998	0.98	1.13
21 January 1998	ND	ND
28 January 1998	0.96	1.18
4 February 1998	1.02	1.21
11 February 1998	1.01	1.21
18 February 1998	ND	ND
25 February 1998	0.97	1.19
4 March 1998	0.94	1.24
11 March 1998	0.94	1.23
18 March 1998	0.96	1.21
25 March 1998	0.95	1.22
1 April 1998	0.91	1.26
8 April 1998	0.93	1.21
15 April 1998	ND	ND
22 April 1998	0.95	1.17
29 April 1998	0.93	1.18
6 May 1998	0.94	1.18
13 May 1998	0.95	1.20
20 May 1998	0.92	1.20
27 May 1998	ND	ND
3 June 1998	0.96	1.28
10 June 1998	0.97	1.33
17 June 1998	1.00	1.34
24 June 1998	1.00	1.35
1 July 1998	0.98	1.37
8 July 1998	ND	ND
15 July 1998	0.98	1.36
22 July 1998	0.99	1.35
29 July 1998	0.97	1.37
5 August 1998	1.02	1.50
12 August 1998	1.05	1.54
19 August 1998	1.07	1.57
26 August 1998	1.15	1.56
2 September 1998	1.49	1.90
9 September 1998	ND	ND
16 September 1998	1.72	1.83
23 September 1998	1.73	1.75
30 September 1998	1.72	1.75
7 October 1998	1.84	1.72
14 October 1998	ND	ND
21 October 1998	1.86	1.68
28 October 1998	1.84	1.80
4 November 1998	2.02	1.78
11 November 1998	ND	ND
18 November 1998	1.92	1.97
25 November 1998	1.87	1.99
2 December 1998	ND	ND
9 December 1998	1.71	1.79
16 December 1998	1.72	1.80
23 December 1998	1.77	1.70
30 December 1998	ND	ND
6 January 1999	ND	ND
13 January 1999	1.73	1.54
20 January 1999	ND	ND
27 January 1999	1.71	1.56
3 February 1999	1.65	1.52
10 February 1999	1.62	1.47
17 February 1999	ND	ND
24 February 1999	1.55	1.48
3 March 1999	1.49	1.56
10 March 1999	1.49	1.51
17 March 1999	1.47	1.50
24 March 1999	1.45	1.46
31 March 1999	1.43	1.45
7 April 1999	ND	ND
14 April 1999	1.44	1.43
21 April 1999	1.43	1.42
28 April 1999	1.42	1.45
5 May 1999	1.38	1.48
12 May 1999	1.33	1.51
19 May 1999	1.32	1.49
26 May 1999	1.37	1.42
2 June 1999	ND	ND
9 June 1999	1.41	1.47
16 June 1999	1.44	1.45
23 June 1999	1.45	1.42
30 June 1999	1.46	1.41
7 July 1999	ND	ND
14 July 1999	ND	ND
21 July 1999	ND	ND
28 July 1999	1.48	1.43
4 August 1999	1.53	1.50
11 August 1999	1.61	1.53
18 August 1999	1.65	1.48
25 August 1999	1.66	1.41
1 September 1999	1.75	1.47
8 September 1999	ND	ND
15 September 1999	1.82	1.38
22 September 1999	1.80	1.38
29 September 1999	1.81	1.40
6 October 1999	1.84	1.35
13 October 1999	ND	ND
20 October 1999	1.83	1.29
27 October 1999	1.84	1.30
3 November 1999	1.84	1.32
10 November 1999	1.82	1.34
17 November 1999	ND	ND
24 November 1999	1.84	1.38
1 December 1999	ND	ND
8 December 1999	1.76	1.43
15 December 1999	1.76	1.44
22 December 1999	1.78	1.37
29 December 1999	ND	ND
5 January 2000	1.72	1.42
12 January 2000	1.70	1.55
19 January 2000	ND	ND
26 January 2000	1.66	1.74
2 February 2000	1.67	1.74
9 February 2000	1.64	1.79
16 February 2000	1.64	1.89
23 February 2000	ND	ND
1 March 2000	1.73	1.97
8 March 2000	1.80	2.14
15 March 2000	1.81	2.03
22 March 2000	1.81	2.09
29 March 2000	1.76	2.08
5 April 2000	1.95	2.27
12 April 2000	2.09	2.35
19 April 2000	2.17	2.41
26 April 2000	ND	ND
3 May 2000	2.20	2.67
10 May 2000	2.22	2.61
17 May 2000	2.31	2.70
24 May 2000	2.33	2.74
31 May 2000	ND	ND
7 June 2000	2.35	2.84
14 June 2000	2.28	2.80
21 June 2000	2.29	2.56
28 June 2000	2.26	2.52
5 July 2000	ND	ND
12 July 2000	ND	ND
19 July 2000	2.36	2.43
26 July 2000	2.35	2.42
2 August 2000	2.30	2.50
9 August 2000	2.26	2.55
16 August 2000	2.25	2.54
23 August 2000	2.22	2.56
30 August 2000	2.22	2.58
6 September 2000	ND	ND
13 September 2000	2.24	2.55
20 September 2000	2.22	2.43
27 September 2000	2.23	2.39
4 October 2000	2.23	2.32
11 October 2000	ND	ND
18 October 2000	2.30	2.44
25 October 2000	2.35	2.55
1 November 2000	2.33	2.59
8 November 2000	2.39	2.51
15 November 2000	2.43	2.48
22 November 2000	2.42	2.51
29 November 2000	ND	ND
6 December 2000	2.40	2.70
13 December 2000	2.47	2.68
20 December 2000	2.41	2.60
27 December 2000	ND	ND
3 January 2001	ND	ND
10 January 2001	2.33	2.57
17 January 2001	ND	ND
24 January 2001	2.28	2.37
31 January 2001	2.30	2.27
7 February 2001	2.26	2.29
14 February 2001	2.29	2.28
21 February 2001	ND	ND
28 February 2001	2.31	2.33
7 March 2001	2.33	2.32
14 March 2001	2.30	2.35
21 March 2001	2.30	2.33
28 March 2001	2.35	2.28
4 April 2001	2.34	2.18
11 April 2001	2.30	2.21
18 April 2001	ND	ND
25 April 2001	2.26	2.17
2 May 2001	2.18	2.08
9 May 2001	2.15	2.03
16 May 2001	2.16	1.99
23 May 2001	2.14	1.95
30 May 2001	ND	ND
6 June 2001	2.05	1.89
13 June 2001	1.99	1.91
20 June 2001	2.00	1.91
27 June 2001	2.01	1.98
4 July 2001	ND	ND
11 July 2001	2.03	1.96
18 July 2001	2.01	2.02
25 July 2001	1.98	2.04
1 August 2001	1.99	1.95
8 August 2001	2.01	1.89
15 August 2001	2.04	1.88
22 August 2001	2.05	1.96
29 August 2001	2.02	1.99
5 September 2001	ND	ND
12 September 2001	ND	ND
19 September 2001	ND	ND
26 September 2001	2.36	1.97
3 October 2001	2.37	2.03
10 October 2001	ND	ND
17 October 2001	2.36	1.93
24 October 2001	2.32	1.95
31 October 2001	2.39	2.04
7 November 2001	2.50	2.10
14 November 2001	ND	ND
21 November 2001	2.29	1.96
28 November 2001	ND	ND
5 December 2001	2.17	1.74
12 December 2001	2.09	1.66
19 December 2001	2.09	1.72
26 December 2001	ND	ND
2 January 2002	ND	ND
9 January 2002	2.14	1.48
16 January 2002	2.13	1.56
23 January 2002	ND	ND
30 January 2002	2.17	1.55
6 February 2002	2.45	1.63
13 February 2002	2.63	1.57
20 February 2002	ND	ND
27 February 2002	2.52	1.67
6 March 2002	2.37	1.60
13 March 2002	2.28	1.54
20 March 2002	2.27	1.61
27 March 2002	2.23	1.65
3 April 2002	ND	ND
10 April 2002	2.15	1.70
17 April 2002	2.15	1.71
24 April 2002	2.07	1.72
1 May 2002	1.92	1.89
8 May 2002	2.03	1.93
15 May 2002	2.05	1.85
22 May 2002	2.06	1.86
29 May 2002	ND	ND
5 June 2002	2.07	1.63
12 June 2002	2.07	1.64
19 June 2002	2.11	1.74
26 June 2002	2.25	1.87
3 July 2002	2.31	2.05
10 July 2002	ND	ND
17 July 2002	2.45	1.98
24 July 2002	2.57	2.09
31 July 2002	2.79	2.20
7 August 2002	2.97	2.05
14 August 2002	3.07	2.12
21 August 2002	3.02	2.09
28 August 2002	2.92	1.91
4 September 2002	ND	ND
11 September 2002	3.01	2.03
18 September 2002	2.88	2.12
25 September 2002	3.08	2.12
2 October 2002	3.17	2.14
9 October 2002	3.33	2.20
16 October 2002	ND	ND
23 October 2002	3.51	2.18
30 October 2002	3.41	2.11
6 November 2002	3.28	1.94
13 November 2002	ND	ND
20 November 2002	2.98	1.85
27 November 2002	2.81	1.69
4 December 2002	ND	ND
11 December 2002	2.78	1.66
18 December 2002	2.77	1.56
25 December 2002	ND	ND
1 January 2003	ND	ND
8 January 2003	2.64	1.45
15 January 2003	2.50	1.42
22 January 2003	ND	ND
29 January 2003	2.70	1.55
5 February 2003	2.63	1.56
12 February 2003	2.59	1.59
19 February 2003	ND	ND
26 February 2003	2.61	1.59
5 March 2003	2.53	1.61
12 March 2003	2.47	1.70
19 March 2003	2.41	1.69
26 March 2003	2.33	1.59
2 April 2003	2.23	1.50
9 April 2003	2.12	1.47
16 April 2003	2.13	1.46
23 April 2003	ND	ND
30 April 2003	1.93	1.36
7 May 2003	1.82	1.33
14 May 2003	1.88	1.30
21 May 2003	1.98	1.40
28 May 2003	ND	ND
4 June 2003	1.83	1.38
11 June 2003	1.76	1.40
18 June 2003	1.75	1.39
25 June 2003	1.71	1.35
2 July 2003	1.62	1.40
9 July 2003	ND	ND
16 July 2003	1.54	1.26
23 July 2003	1.48	1.20
30 July 2003	1.40	1.11
6 August 2003	1.58	1.11
13 August 2003	1.63	1.14
20 August 2003	1.65	1.08
27 August 2003	1.58	1.07
3 September 2003	ND	ND
10 September 2003	1.49	1.06
17 September 2003	1.46	1.03
24 September 2003	1.43	1.03
1 October 2003	1.42	1.08
8 October 2003	1.39	1.02
15 October 2003	ND	ND
22 October 2003	1.33	0.90
29 October 2003	1.31	0.95
5 November 2003	1.30	0.96
12 November 2003	ND	ND
19 November 2003	1.34	0.91
26 November 2003	1.32	0.94
3 December 2003	ND	ND
10 December 2003	1.23	0.92
17 December 2003	1.25	0.93
24 December 2003	1.21	0.94
31 December 2003	ND	ND
7 January 2004	ND	ND
14 January 2004	1.17	0.85
21 January 2004	ND	ND
28 January 2004	1.17	0.89
4 February 2004	1.17	0.93
11 February 2004	1.18	0.95
18 February 2004	ND	ND
25 February 2004	1.18	0.96
3 March 2004	1.16	1.00
10 March 2004	1.16	1.03
17 March 2004	1.21	1.08
24 March 2004	1.19	1.12
31 March 2004	1.18	1.07
7 April 2004	1.14	0.98
14 April 2004	ND	ND
21 April 2004	1.11	0.92
28 April 2004	1.07	0.96
5 May 2004	1.07	0.98
12 May 2004	1.13	1.01
19 May 2004	1.18	1.04
26 May 2004	1.19	1.03
2 June 2004	ND	ND
9 June 2004	1.19	1.01
16 June 2004	ND	ND
23 June 2004	1.18	1.06
30 June 2004	1.19	1.06
7 July 2004	ND	ND
14 July 2004	1.22	1.09
21 July 2004	1.18	1.09
28 July 2004	1.15	1.08
4 August 2004	1.17	1.09
11 August 2004	1.22	1.11
18 August 2004	1.23	1.10
25 August 2004	1.24	1.07
1 September 2004	1.22	1.04
8 September 2004	ND	ND
15 September 2004	1.20	0.99
22 September 2004	1.18	1.00
29 September 2004	1.14	1.03
6 October 2004	1.12	0.97
13 October 2004	ND	ND
20 October 2004	1.13	0.95
27 October 2004	1.14	0.99
3 November 2004	1.10	0.94
10 November 2004	1.07	0.86
17 November 2004	ND	ND
24 November 2004	0.98	0.87
1 December 2004	ND	ND
8 December 2004	0.95	0.85
15 December 2004	0.94	0.85
22 December 2004	0.92	0.83
29 December 2004	ND	ND
5 January 2005	0.91	0.83
12 January 2005	0.88	0.89
19 January 2005	ND	ND
26 January 2005	0.87	0.96
2 February 2005	0.87	0.94
9 February 2005	0.85	0.93
16 February 2005	0.87	0.91
23 February 2005	ND	ND
2 March 2005	0.79	0.89
9 March 2005	0.76	0.89
16 March 2005	0.75	0.89
23 March 2005	0.80	0.97
30 March 2005	ND	ND
6 April 2005	0.92	1.08
13 April 2005	0.91	1.08
20 April 2005	1.00	1.14
27 April 2005	0.98	1.14
4 May 2005	1.00	1.20
11 May 2005	1.02	1.13
18 May 2005	1.09	1.20
25 May 2005	1.10	1.20
1 June 2005	ND	ND
8 June 2005	1.03	1.17
15 June 2005	1.02	1.22
22 June 2005	1.01	1.25
29 June 2005	1.03	1.29
6 July 2005	ND	ND
13 July 2005	1.00	1.28
20 July 2005	0.97	1.25
27 July 2005	0.93	1.24
3 August 2005	0.92	1.21
10 August 2005	0.92	1.23
17 August 2005	0.93	1.29
24 August 2005	0.92	1.27
31 August 2005	0.90	1.26
7 September 2005	ND	ND
14 September 2005	0.99	1.31
21 September 2005	0.99	1.32
28 September 2005	1.01	1.34
5 October 2005	1.01	1.38
12 October 2005	ND	ND
19 October 2005	1.02	1.40
26 October 2005	1.02	1.41
2 November 2005	1.06	1.42
9 November 2005	1.07	1.48
16 November 2005	ND	ND
23 November 2005	1.11	1.42
30 November 2005	ND	ND
7 December 2005	1.09	1.41
14 December 2005	1.10	1.43
21 December 2005	1.10	1.44
28 December 2005	ND	ND
4 January 2006	ND	ND
11 January 2006	1.13	1.52
18 January 2006	ND	ND
25 January 2006	1.11	1.55
1 February 2006	1.09	1.51
8 February 2006	1.06	1.56
15 February 2006	1.06	1.53
22 February 2006	ND	ND
1 March 2006	1.04	1.51
8 March 2006	1.05	1.50
15 March 2006	1.07	1.48
22 March 2006	1.07	1.49
29 March 2006	1.06	1.50
5 April 2006	1.07	1.46
12 April 2006	1.08	1.46
19 April 2006	ND	ND
26 April 2006	1.07	1.42
3 May 2006	1.04	1.37
10 May 2006	1.03	1.37
17 May 2006	1.04	1.37
24 May 2006	1.08	1.43
31 May 2006	ND	ND
7 June 2006	1.07	1.50
14 June 2006	1.10	1.57
21 June 2006	1.12	1.62
28 June 2006	1.12	1.65
5 July 2006	ND	ND
12 July 2006	1.18	1.67
19 July 2006	1.19	1.70
26 July 2006	1.19	1.68
2 August 2006	1.18	1.66
9 August 2006	1.18	1.67
16 August 2006	1.19	1.65
23 August 2006	1.19	1.65
30 August 2006	1.20	1.69
6 September 2006	ND	ND
13 September 2006	1.18	1.68
20 September 2006	1.17	1.67
27 September 2006	1.20	1.71
4 October 2006	1.19	1.74
11 October 2006	ND	ND
18 October 2006	1.18	1.67
25 October 2006	1.17	1.65
1 November 2006	1.15	1.67
8 November 2006	1.13	1.64
15 November 2006	1.12	1.61
22 November 2006	1.10	1.61
29 November 2006	ND	ND
6 December 2006	1.09	1.70
13 December 2006	1.09	1.68
20 December 2006	1.09	1.63
27 December 2006	ND	ND
3 January 2007	ND	ND
10 January 2007	1.08	1.61
17 January 2007	ND	ND
24 January 2007	1.03	1.59
31 January 2007	0.99	1.59
7 February 2007	0.97	1.57
14 February 2007	0.97	1.53
21 February 2007	ND	ND
28 February 2007	0.98	1.51
7 March 2007	1.01	1.61
14 March 2007	1.03	1.61
21 March 2007	1.04	1.60
28 March 2007	1.03	1.61
4 April 2007	1.03	1.62
11 April 2007	ND	ND
18 April 2007	1.02	1.57
25 April 2007	1.04	1.57
2 May 2007	1.06	1.57
9 May 2007	1.06	1.55
16 May 2007	1.03	1.53
23 May 2007	1.02	1.53
30 May 2007	ND	ND
6 June 2007	1.04	1.53
13 June 2007	1.05	1.56
20 June 2007	1.05	1.52
27 June 2007	1.08	1.54
4 July 2007	ND	ND
11 July 2007	1.13	1.55
18 July 2007	1.15	1.58
25 July 2007	1.21	1.66
1 August 2007	1.42	1.84
8 August 2007	1.47	1.79
15 August 2007	1.41	1.75
22 August 2007	1.39	1.67
29 August 2007	1.44	1.68
5 September 2007	ND	ND
12 September 2007	1.61	1.72
19 September 2007	1.66	1.72
26 September 2007	1.63	1.58
3 October 2007	1.66	1.56
10 October 2007	ND	ND
17 October 2007	1.65	ND
24 October 2007	1.66	1.51
31 October 2007	1.73	1.53
7 November 2007	1.78	1.53
14 November 2007	ND	ND
21 November 2007	1.94	1.67
28 November 2007	ND	ND
5 December 2007	2.13	1.75
12 December 2007	2.24	1.70
19 December 2007	2.27	1.60
26 December 2007	ND	ND
2 January 2008	ND	ND
9 January 2008	2.58	1.61
16 January 2008	2.64	1.72
23 January 2008	ND	ND
30 January 2008	2.89	1.70
6 February 2008	2.77	1.80
13 February 2008	2.84	1.81
20 February 2008	ND	ND
27 February 2008	3.07	1.81
5 March 2008	3.05	1.79
12 March 2008	3.13	1.80
19 March 2008	3.29	1.75
26 March 2008	ND	ND
2 April 2008	3.48	1.70
9 April 2008	3.42	1.75
16 April 2008	3.40	1.78
23 April 2008	3.23	1.81
30 April 2008	3.05	1.81
7 May 2008	2.93	1.68
14 May 2008	2.82	1.69
21 May 2008	2.73	1.81
28 May 2008	ND	ND
4 June 2008	2.83	1.78
11 June 2008	2.84	1.74
18 June 2008	2.94	1.87
25 June 2008	2.98	1.93
2 July 2008	3.20	1.97
9 July 2008	ND	ND
16 July 2008	3.21	2.01
23 July 2008	3.32	2.08
30 July 2008	3.30	2.06
6 August 2008	3.39	2.09
13 August 2008	3.43	2.12
20 August 2008	3.54	2.12
27 August 2008	3.61	2.21
3 September 2008	ND	ND
10 September 2008	3.76	2.25
17 September 2008	3.92	2.48
24 September 2008	4.05	2.57
1 October 2008	4.28	2.86
8 October 2008	4.84	3.29
15 October 2008	ND	ND
22 October 2008	6.41	3.65
29 October 2008	6.81	3.65
5 November 2008	7.11	3.32
12 November 2008	ND	ND
19 November 2008	7.21	3.58
26 November 2008	7.61	4.25
3 December 2008	ND	ND
10 December 2008	7.94	4.50
17 December 2008	8.12	4.54
24 December 2008	7.90	4.74
31 December 2008	ND	ND
7 January 2009	ND	ND
14 January 2009	7.47	4.06
21 January 2009	ND	ND
28 January 2009	7.10	3.97
4 February 2009	6.64	3.88
11 February 2009	6.37	3.85
18 February 2009	ND	ND
25 February 2009	6.38	4.02
4 March 2009	6.46	4.17
11 March 2009	6.46	4.35
18 March 2009	6.49	4.57
25 March 2009	6.59	4.72
1 April 2009	6.66	4.61
8 April 2009	6.49	4.43
15 April 2009	ND	ND
22 April 2009	6.11	4.03
29 April 2009	5.80	3.89
6 May 2009	5.39	3.50
13 May 2009	5.11	3.23
20 May 2009	5.10	3.31
27 May 2009	ND	ND
3 June 2009	4.60	2.85
10 June 2009	4.17	2.74
17 June 2009	3.93	2.62
24 June 2009	3.99	2.59
1 July 2009	3.98	2.76
8 July 2009	ND	ND
15 July 2009	3.95	2.64
22 July 2009	3.75	2.39
29 July 2009	3.45	2.23
5 August 2009	3.12	2.06
12 August 2009	2.90	2.06
19 August 2009	3.06	2.07
26 August 2009	3.02	2.29
2 September 2009	3.05	2.25
9 September 2009	ND	ND
16 September 2009	2.97	2.21
23 September 2009	2.81	2.18
30 September 2009	2.81	2.19
7 October 2009	2.86	2.22
14 October 2009	ND	ND
21 October 2009	2.80	1.95
28 October 2009	2.73	1.91
4 November 2009	2.76	1.97
11 November 2009	ND	ND
18 November 2009	2.80	1.85
25 November 2009	2.74	2.01
2 December 2009	ND	ND
9 December 2009	2.79	1.68
16 December 2009	2.71	1.46
23 December 2009	2.56	1.37
30 December 2009	ND	ND
6 January 2010	ND	ND
13 January 2010	2.11	1.05
20 January 2010	ND	ND
27 January 2010	2.14	1.31
3 February 2010	2.17	1.29
10 February 2010	2.23	1.33
17 February 2010	ND	ND
24 February 2010	2.19	1.29
3 March 2010	2.15	1.24
10 March 2010	2.09	1.19
17 March 2010	2.02	1.24
24 March 2010	1.96	1.30
31 March 2010	1.91	1.25
7 April 2010	ND	ND
14 April 2010	1.93	1.11
21 April 2010	1.89	1.08
28 April 2010	1.83	1.12
5 May 2010	1.85	1.16
12 May 2010	2.05	1.34
19 May 2010	2.01	1.41
26 May 2010	2.19	1.64
2 June 2010	ND	ND
9 June 2010	2.39	1.73
16 June 2010	2.44	1.78
23 June 2010	2.40	1.73
30 June 2010	2.35	1.75
7 July 2010	ND	ND
14 July 2010	2.44	1.71
21 July 2010	2.40	1.69
28 July 2010	2.19	1.57
4 August 2010	2.20	1.46
11 August 2010	2.01	1.70
18 August 2010	2.04	1.86
25 August 2010	2.08	1.91
1 September 2010	2.12	2.01
8 September 2010	ND	ND
15 September 2010	2.12	1.89
22 September 2010	2.14	1.84
29 September 2010	2.13	1.89
6 October 2010	2.27	1.77
13 October 2010	ND	ND
20 October 2010	2.34	1.82
27 October 2010	2.34	1.79
3 November 2010	2.38	1.66
10 November 2010	2.28	1.56
17 November 2010	ND	ND
24 November 2010	2.24	1.75
1 December 2010	ND	ND
8 December 2010	2.27	1.80
15 December 2010	2.18	1.72
22 December 2010	2.20	1.71
29 December 2010	ND	ND
5 January 2011	2.12	1.30
12 January 2011	2.05	1.24

* Near-term forward spreads between years two and three. Far-term forward spreads between years nine and ten. Return to text

Middle-left panel
S&P 500

Daily
December 13, 2010 = 100
Date	Index
4 January 2010	91.34
5 January 2010	91.62
6 January 2010	91.67
7 January 2010	92.04
8 January 2010	92.30
11 January 2010	92.46
12 January 2010	91.60
13 January 2010	92.36
14 January 2010	92.58
15 January 2010	91.58
18 January 2010	ND
19 January 2010	92.73
20 January 2010	91.74
21 January 2010	90.01
22 January 2010	88.01
25 January 2010	88.42
26 January 2010	88.05
27 January 2010	88.48
28 January 2010	87.43
29 January 2010	86.57
1 February 2010	87.80
2 February 2010	88.94
3 February 2010	88.46
4 February 2010	85.70
5 February 2010	85.95
8 February 2010	85.19
9 February 2010	86.30
10 February 2010	86.11
11 February 2010	86.94
12 February 2010	86.70
15 February 2010	ND
16 February 2010	88.26
17 February 2010	88.64
18 February 2010	89.22
19 February 2010	89.42
22 February 2010	89.32
23 February 2010	88.24
24 February 2010	89.10
25 February 2010	88.91
26 February 2010	89.04
1 March 2010	89.94
2 March 2010	90.15
3 March 2010	90.19
4 March 2010	90.53
5 March 2010	91.80
8 March 2010	91.78
9 March 2010	91.94
10 March 2010	92.35
11 March 2010	92.73
12 March 2010	92.71
15 March 2010	92.75
16 March 2010	93.47
17 March 2010	94.01
18 March 2010	93.98
19 March 2010	93.51
22 March 2010	93.98
23 March 2010	94.66
24 March 2010	94.14
25 March 2010	93.98
26 March 2010	94.04
29 March 2010	94.58
30 March 2010	94.58
31 March 2010	94.27
1 April 2010	94.97
2 April 2010	ND
5 April 2010	95.73
6 April 2010	95.89
7 April 2010	95.32
8 April 2010	95.65
9 April 2010	96.28
12 April 2010	96.45
13 April 2010	96.52
14 April 2010	97.60
15 April 2010	97.68
16 April 2010	96.10
19 April 2010	96.54
20 April 2010	97.32
21 April 2010	97.22
22 April 2010	97.44
23 April 2010	98.13
26 April 2010	97.71
27 April 2010	95.43
28 April 2010	96.04
29 April 2010	97.28
30 April 2010	95.67
3 May 2010	96.92
4 May 2010	94.61
5 May 2010	93.99
6 May 2010	90.95
7 May 2010	89.55
10 May 2010	93.49
11 May 2010	93.17
12 May 2010	94.45
13 May 2010	93.31
14 May 2010	91.55
17 May 2010	91.65
18 May 2010	90.35
19 May 2010	89.89
20 May 2010	86.39
21 May 2010	87.68
24 May 2010	86.55
25 May 2010	86.58
26 May 2010	86.09
27 May 2010	88.92
28 May 2010	87.82
31 May 2010	ND
1 June 2010	86.32
2 June 2010	88.55
3 June 2010	88.90
4 June 2010	85.85
7 June 2010	84.68
8 June 2010	85.61
9 June 2010	85.10
10 June 2010	87.62
11 June 2010	88.00
14 June 2010	87.84
15 June 2010	89.90
16 June 2010	89.85
17 June 2010	89.97
18 June 2010	90.09
21 June 2010	89.74
22 June 2010	88.30
23 June 2010	88.04
24 June 2010	86.56
25 June 2010	86.80
28 June 2010	86.63
29 June 2010	83.94
30 June 2010	83.09
1 July 2010	82.82
2 July 2010	82.44
5 July 2010	ND
6 July 2010	82.88
7 July 2010	85.47
8 July 2010	86.28
9 July 2010	86.90
12 July 2010	86.96
13 July 2010	88.30
14 July 2010	88.29
15 July 2010	88.39
16 July 2010	85.85
19 July 2010	86.36
20 July 2010	87.35
21 July 2010	86.23
22 July 2010	88.17
23 July 2010	88.89
26 July 2010	89.89
27 July 2010	89.79
28 July 2010	89.17
29 July 2010	88.80
30 July 2010	88.81
2 August 2010	90.76
3 August 2010	90.33
4 August 2010	90.87
5 August 2010	90.76
6 August 2010	90.42
9 August 2010	90.92
10 August 2010	90.37
11 August 2010	87.83
12 August 2010	87.36
13 August 2010	87.00
16 August 2010	87.01
17 August 2010	88.08
18 August 2010	88.21
19 August 2010	86.71
20 August 2010	86.39
23 August 2010	86.05
24 August 2010	84.80
25 August 2010	85.08
26 August 2010	84.42
27 August 2010	85.82
30 August 2010	84.56
31 August 2010	84.59
1 September 2010	87.09
2 September 2010	87.88
3 September 2010	89.04
6 September 2010	ND
7 September 2010	88.02
8 September 2010	88.59
9 September 2010	89.01
10 September 2010	89.45
13 September 2010	90.44
14 September 2010	90.38
15 September 2010	90.70
16 September 2010	90.66
17 September 2010	90.74
20 September 2010	92.12
21 September 2010	91.88
22 September 2010	91.44
23 September 2010	90.68
24 September 2010	92.60
27 September 2010	92.08
28 September 2010	92.52
29 September 2010	92.28
30 September 2010	92.00
1 October 2010	92.40
4 October 2010	91.66
5 October 2010	93.57
6 October 2010	93.51
7 October 2010	93.36
8 October 2010	93.93
11 October 2010	93.94
12 October 2010	94.30
13 October 2010	94.97
14 October 2010	94.63
15 October 2010	94.82
18 October 2010	95.51
19 October 2010	93.99
20 October 2010	94.98
21 October 2010	95.15
22 October 2010	95.37
25 October 2010	95.58
26 October 2010	95.58
27 October 2010	95.32
28 October 2010	95.43
29 October 2010	95.39
1 November 2010	95.48
2 November 2010	96.22
3 November 2010	96.57
4 November 2010	98.44
5 November 2010	98.82
8 November 2010	98.61
9 November 2010	97.82
10 November 2010	98.25
11 November 2010	97.83
12 November 2010	96.67
15 November 2010	96.56
16 November 2010	94.99
17 November 2010	95.01
18 November 2010	96.47
19 November 2010	96.72
22 November 2010	96.56
23 November 2010	95.18
24 November 2010	96.61
25 November 2010	ND
26 November 2010	95.88
29 November 2010	95.75
30 November 2010	95.17
1 December 2010	97.23
2 December 2010	98.47
3 December 2010	98.73
6 December 2010	98.60
7 December 2010	98.65
8 December 2010	99.02
9 December 2010	99.40
10 December 2010	100.00
13 December 2010	100.00
14 December 2010	100.09
15 December 2010	99.58
16 December 2010	100.19
17 December 2010	100.28
20 December 2010	100.53
21 December 2010	101.14
22 December 2010	101.48
23 December 2010	101.31
24 December 2010	ND
27 December 2010	101.38
28 December 2010	101.46
29 December 2010	101.56
30 December 2010	101.40
31 December 2010	101.38
3 January 2011	102.53
4 January 2011	102.40
5 January 2011	102.91
6 January 2011	102.69
7 January 2011	102.50
10 January 2011	102.36
11 January 2011	102.74
12 January 2011	103.67
13 January 2011	103.49
14 January 2011	104.25
17 January 2011	ND
18 January 2011	104.40
19 January 2011	103.34
20 January 2011	103.21
21 January 2011	103.46
24 January 2011	104.06

Middle-right panel
Equity Risk Premium

Percent
Period	Expected ten-year real equity return	Expected real yield on ten-year Treasury*
January 1990	7.57	4.36
February 1990	8.00	4.62
March 1990	8.10	4.74
April 1990	7.91	4.66
May 1990	7.71	4.64
June 1990	7.58	4.37
July 1990	7.67	4.36
August 1990	8.38	4.62
September 1990	9.07	4.78
October 1990	9.59	4.64
November 1990	8.86	4.31
December 1990	8.47	4.03
January 1991	9.01	4.17
February 1991	7.60	3.95
March 1991	7.53	4.20
April 1991	7.16	4.11
May 1991	7.78	4.16
June 1991	7.65	4.36
July 1991	7.51	4.31
August 1991	7.34	3.98
September 1991	7.47	3.74
October 1991	7.45	3.67
November 1991	7.33	3.62
December 1991	7.59	3.33
January 1992	7.02	3.62
February 1992	7.60	3.86
March 1992	7.81	3.99
April 1992	7.73	3.75
May 1992	7.84	3.66
June 1992	8.28	3.54
July 1992	8.17	3.36
August 1992	8.10	3.14
September 1992	8.05	3.01
October 1992	8.38	3.30
November 1992	7.98	3.51
December 1992	7.85	3.42
January 1993	7.93	3.36
February 1993	8.00	3.02
March 1993	7.78	2.79
April 1993	7.59	2.56
May 1993	7.59	2.57
June 1993	7.75	2.42
July 1993	7.94	2.50
August 1993	7.82	2.42
September 1993	7.72	2.11
October 1993	7.76	2.06
November 1993	7.73	2.43
December 1993	7.81	2.46
January 1994	7.62	2.42
February 1994	7.73	2.67
March 1994	7.79	3.18
April 1994	8.23	3.60
May 1994	8.14	3.77
June 1994	8.00	3.69
July 1994	8.29	3.89
August 1994	8.08	3.82
September 1994	8.07	4.05
October 1994	8.16	4.30
November 1994	8.36	4.50
December 1994	8.64	4.39
January 1995	8.62	4.58
February 1995	8.43	4.25
March 1995	8.35	4.01
April 1995	8.12	3.81
May 1995	7.84	3.37
June 1995	7.64	2.94
July 1995	7.59	3.20
August 1995	7.54	3.41
September 1995	7.33	3.13
October 1995	7.43	3.14
November 1995	7.39	3.03
December 1995	7.07	2.83
January 1996	7.23	2.77
February 1996	6.55	2.92
March 1996	6.79	3.41
April 1996	6.76	3.67
May 1996	6.45	3.84
June 1996	6.55	3.98
July 1996	6.94	3.91
August 1996	6.53	3.67
September 1996	6.30	3.90
October 1996	6.07	3.60
November 1996	5.81	3.28
December 1996	5.92	3.36
January 1997	5.56	3.62
February 1997	5.14	3.48
March 1997	5.49	3.79
April 1997	5.98	4.13
May 1997	5.18	3.94
June 1997	4.59	3.74
July 1997	4.00	3.32
August 1997	4.29	3.42
September 1997	4.11	3.35
October 1997	4.29	3.53
November 1997	4.50	3.35
December 1997	4.36	3.25
January 1998	4.62	3.06
February 1998	4.03	3.13
March 1998	3.57	3.21
April 1998	3.40	3.30
May 1998	3.47	3.32
June 1998	3.59	3.17
July 1998	3.04	3.11
August 1998	3.67	2.97
September 1998	4.20	2.52
October 1998	4.49	2.33
November 1998	3.25	2.58
December 1998	3.08	2.44
January 1999	2.77	2.78
February 1999	3.09	3.05
March 1999	2.76	3.29
April 1999	2.58	3.00
May 1999	2.44	3.33
June 1999	2.66	3.69
July 1999	2.20	3.60
August 1999	2.67	3.79
September 1999	2.79	3.81
October 1999	3.10	4.01
November 1999	2.31	3.84
December 1999	2.28	4.07
January 2000	2.19	4.33
February 2000	2.81	4.21
March 2000	2.83	4.00
April 2000	2.57	3.76
May 2000	2.64	4.17
June 2000	2.35	3.83
July 2000	2.20	3.74
August 2000	2.24	3.56
September 2000	2.26	3.56
October 2000	3.24	3.45
November 2000	2.85	3.39
December 2000	2.89	2.96
January 2001	3.08	2.88
February 2001	3.26	2.85
March 2001	4.22	2.68
April 2001	3.51	2.89
May 2001	3.11	3.10
June 2001	3.33	3.01
July 2001	3.40	2.94
August 2001	3.56	2.74
September 2001	4.90	2.55
October 2001	4.02	2.31
November 2001	3.54	2.39
December 2001	3.53	2.85
January 2002	3.96	2.82
February 2002	4.19	2.74
March 2002	4.15	3.10
April 2002	4.45	2.99
May 2002	4.84	2.90
June 2002	5.57	2.66
July 2002	6.62	2.40
August 2002	6.39	2.04
September 2002	6.83	1.66
October 2002	6.75	1.80
November 2002	6.52	1.88
December 2002	6.41	1.86
January 2003	6.01	1.80
February 2003	6.69	1.64
March 2003	6.58	1.54
April 2003	6.57	1.66
May 2003	6.05	1.24
June 2003	5.44	1.01
July 2003	5.62	1.64
August 2003	5.78	2.14
September 2003	5.47	1.95
October 2003	5.44	1.95
November 2003	5.59	1.95
December 2003	5.37	1.91
January 2004	5.01	1.78
February 2004	4.96	1.72
March 2004	5.28	1.46
April 2004	5.37	2.00
May 2004	5.90	2.38
June 2004	5.63	2.38
July 2004	5.89	2.14
August 2004	6.09	1.93
September 2004	5.88	1.76
October 2004	6.00	1.74
November 2004	5.58	1.82
December 2004	5.47	1.84
January 2005	5.74	1.87
February 2005	5.59	1.80
March 2005	5.89	2.14
April 2005	6.00	1.92
May 2005	5.99	1.72
June 2005	5.90	1.57
July 2005	5.87	1.75
August 2005	6.06	1.84
September 2005	6.17	1.78
October 2005	6.54	2.06
November 2005	6.31	2.16
December 2005	5.99	2.07
January 2006	6.06	2.00
February 2006	6.13	2.16
March 2006	6.06	2.32
April 2006	6.06	2.57
May 2006	6.50	2.69
June 2006	6.94	2.68
July 2006	6.82	2.65
August 2006	6.66	2.44
September 2006	6.55	2.30
October 2006	6.26	2.30
November 2006	6.13	2.16
December 2006	6.10	2.13
January 2007	6.13	2.48
February 2007	6.07	2.45
March 2007	6.61	2.30
April 2007	6.08	2.37
May 2007	5.98	2.42
June 2007	6.14	2.77
July 2007	6.07	2.68
August 2007	7.06	2.40
September 2007	6.34	2.23
October 2007	6.30	2.23
November 2007	6.73	1.90
December 2007	6.75	1.87
January 2008	7.19	1.42
February 2008	7.35	1.45
March 2008	7.94	1.23
April 2008	7.65	1.39
May 2008	7.47	1.59
June 2008	8.12	1.81
July 2008	8.87	1.69
August 2008	8.44	1.56
September 2008	9.50	1.39
October 2008	11.51	1.76
November 2008	12.02	1.53
December 2008	10.44	0.43
January 2009	11.21	0.66
February 2009	11.11	0.99
March 2009	10.59	0.85
April 2009	9.88	0.75
May 2009	9.59	1.12
June 2009	9.60	1.55
July 2009	9.32	1.37
August 2009	8.69	1.38
September 2009	8.10	1.18
October 2009	8.21	1.37
November 2009	8.44	1.37
December 2009	8.42	1.52
January 2010	8.00	1.50
February 2010	8.79	1.46
March 2010	8.39	1.47
April 2010	8.22	1.54
May 2010	9.29	1.16
June 2010	9.38	0.95
July 2010	9.72	0.84
August 2010	9.90	0.49
September 2010	9.64	0.46
October 2010	9.31	0.44
November 2010	9.42	0.63
December 2010	9.02	1.19
24 January 2011	9.05	1.27

* Off-the-run Treasury yield less Philadelphia Fed ten-year expected inflation. Return to table

As shown in the chart, the region between the two series is shaded teal, except when the curves cross one another from about March 1999 through December 2000, where the region is shaded light gray.

Source: Thomson Financial.

Bottom-left panel
Domestic Equity Mutual Fund Flows

Three-month moving average
Period	Percent of DPI
January 2001	2.35
February 2001	1.82
March 2001	0.37
April 2001	0.14
May 2001	1.18
June 2001	2.52
July 2001	1.74
August 2001	0.57
September 2001	-1.38
October 2001	-1.22
November 2001	-0.45
December 2001	1.31
January 2002	1.89
February 2002	1.58
March 2002	2.61
April 2002	2.36
May 2002	2.11
June 2002	-0.20
July 2002	-3.26
August 2002	-3.42
September 2002	-3.19
October 2002	-1.12
November 2002	-0.78
December 2002	-0.35
January 2003	-0.05
February 2003	-0.87
March 2003	-0.51
April 2003	0.18
May 2003	1.29
June 2003	2.10
July 2003	2.40
August 2003	2.69
September 2003	2.64
October 2003	2.61
November 2003	2.29
December 2003	1.94
January 2004	2.51
February 2004	2.76
March 2004	2.77
April 2004	2.05
May 2004	1.15
June 2004	1.04
July 2004	0.59
August 2004	0.58
September 2004	0.51
October 2004	0.33
November 2004	0.96
December 2004	0.79
January 2005	0.76
February 2005	0.65
March 2005	0.66
April 2005	0.69
May 2005	0.48
June 2005	0.41
July 2005	0.54
August 2005	0.22
September 2005	0.09
October 2005	-0.26
November 2005	0.22
December 2005	0.16
January 2006	0.62
February 2006	0.58
March 2006	1.32
April 2006	1.31
May 2006	0.69
June 2006	-0.33
July 2006	-0.82
August 2006	-0.70
September 2006	-0.41
October 2006	-0.20
November 2006	-0.06
December 2006	-0.10
January 2007	0.17
February 2007	0.59
March 2007	0.76
April 2007	0.51
May 2007	-0.39
June 2007	-0.57
July 2007	-0.77
August 2007	-0.96
September 2007	-0.95
October 2007	-0.95
November 2007	-0.84
December 2007	-0.99
January 2008	-2.14
February 2008	-1.44
March 2008	-1.46
April 2008	0.04
May 2008	0.14
June 2008	0.34
July 2008	-0.60
August 2008	-0.87
September 2008	-1.83
October 2008	-2.85
November 2008	-3.22
December 2008	-2.51
January 2009	-0.55
February 2009	-0.64
March 2009	-0.91
April 2009	-0.82
May 2009	0.22
June 2009	1.07
July 2009	0.81
August 2009	0.22
September 2009	-0.41
October 2009	-1.05
November 2009	-1.30
December 2009	-1.21
January 2010	-0.60
February 2010	-0.47
March 2010	-0.06
April 2010	-0.03
May 2010	-0.56
June 2010	-0.90
July 2010	-1.43
August 2010	-1.28
September 2010	-1.53
October 2010	-1.35
November 2010	-1.04
December 2010	-0.98

Source: Investment Company Institute.

Bottom-right panel
Repo Market Haircuts

Weekly
Percent
Period	Speculative-grade corporate bonds	Investment-grade corporate bonds
5 March 2008	17.38	7.00
12 March 2008	20.00	7.75
19 March 2008	21.13	7.00
26 March 2008	ND	ND
2 April 2008	21.25	10.00
9 April 2008	21.25	10.00
16 April 2008	21.25	10.00
23 April 2008	20.00	10.00
30 April 2008	20.00	10.00
7 May 2008	20.00	10.00
14 May 2008	20.00	10.00
21 May 2008	20.00	10.00
28 May 2008	20.00	10.00
4 June 2008	20.00	10.00
11 June 2008	20.00	10.00
18 June 2008	20.00	10.00
25 June 2008	20.00	10.00
2 July 2008	20.00	10.00
9 July 2008	20.00	10.00
16 July 2008	20.00	10.00
23 July 2008	22.50	10.00
30 July 2008	20.00	10.00
6 August 2008	20.00	10.00
13 August 2008	20.00	11.00
20 August 2008	20.00	11.00
27 August 2008	20.00	11.00
3 September 2008	20.00	11.00
10 September 2008	20.00	11.00
17 September 2008	25.00	15.00
24 September 2008	28.75	15.00
1 October 2008	33.75	15.00
8 October 2008	33.75	16.25
15 October 2008	37.50	16.25
22 October 2008	37.50	18.75
29 October 2008	37.50	18.75
5 November 2008	37.50	18.75
12 November 2008	37.50	18.75
19 November 2008	36.25	18.75
26 November 2008	36.25	20.00
3 December 2008	36.25	20.00
10 December 2008	36.25	20.00
17 December 2008	36.25	20.00
24 December 2008	36.25	20.00
31 December 2008	36.25	20.00
7 January 2009	36.25	20.00
14 January 2009	36.25	20.00
21 January 2009	36.25	20.00
28 January 2009	36.25	20.00
4 February 2009	36.25	20.00
11 February 2009	36.25	18.75
18 February 2009	36.25	18.75
25 February 2009	35.00	20.00
4 March 2009	35.00	20.00
11 March 2009	35.00	20.00
18 March 2009	35.00	22.50
25 March 2009	35.00	22.50
1 April 2009	35.00	22.50
8 April 2009	35.00	22.50
15 April 2009	35.00	20.00
22 April 2009	35.00	20.00
29 April 2009	35.00	20.00
6 May 2009	35.00	20.00
13 May 2009	35.00	20.00
20 May 2009	36.25	20.00
27 May 2009	36.25	20.00
3 June 2009	36.25	20.00
10 June 2009	36.25	20.00
17 June 2009	36.25	20.00
24 June 2009	36.25	20.00
1 July 2009	36.25	20.00
8 July 2009	36.25	20.00
15 July 2009	36.25	20.00
22 July 2009	36.25	20.00
29 July 2009	36.25	20.00
5 August 2009	36.25	20.00
12 August 2009	36.25	20.00
19 August 2009	36.25	20.00
26 August 2009	36.25	20.00
2 September 2009	35.00	20.00
9 September 2009	35.00	20.00
16 September 2009	35.00	20.00
23 September 2009	35.00	15.00
30 September 2009	35.00	15.00
7 October 2009	35.00	15.00
14 October 2009	35.00	15.00
21 October 2009	33.75	15.00
28 October 2009	33.75	15.00
4 November 2009	33.75	15.00
11 November 2009	33.75	15.00
18 November 2009	31.25	15.00
25 November 2009	31.25	15.00
2 December 2009	31.25	15.00
9 December 2009	27.50	13.50
16 December 2009	27.50	13.50
23 December 2009	27.50	13.50
30 December 2009	ND	13.50
6 January 2010	26.25	ND
13 January 2010	26.25	13.50
20 January 2010	26.25	12.50
27 January 2010	26.25	12.50
3 February 2010	25.00	12.50
10 February 2010	25.00	12.50
17 February 2010	25.00	12.50
24 February 2010	25.00	12.50
3 March 2010	25.00	12.50
10 March 2010	25.00	12.50
17 March 2010	25.00	12.50
24 March 2010	ND	ND
31 March 2010	25.00	12.50
7 April 2010	25.00	12.50
14 April 2010	ND	ND
21 April 2010	25.00	12.50
28 April 2010	ND	ND
5 May 2010	25.00	12.50
12 May 2010	25.00	12.50
19 May 2010	25.00	12.50
26 May 2010	25.00	12.50
2 June 2010	25.00	12.50
9 June 2010	25.00	12.50
16 June 2010	25.00	12.50
23 June 2010	25.00	12.50
30 June 2010	ND	ND
7 July 2010	ND	ND
14 July 2010	ND	ND
21 July 2010	25.00	12.50
28 July 2010	25.00	12.50
4 August 2010	25.00	12.50
11 August 2010	25.00	12.50
18 August 2010	25.00	12.50
25 August 2010	25.00	12.50
1 September 2010	25.00	12.50
8 September 2010	25.00	12.50
15 September 2010	25.00	12.50
22 September 2010	25.00	12.50
29 September 2010	ND	ND
6 October 2010	22.50	12.00
13 October 2010	22.50	12.00
20 October 2010	20.00	11.00
27 October 2010	20.00	11.00
3 November 2010	ND	ND
10 November 2010	20.00	11.00
17 November 2010	22.50	12.00
24 November 2010	20.00	11.00
1 December 2010	20.00	11.00
8 December 2010	20.00	11.00
15 December 2010	20.00	11.25
22 December 2010	18.75	10.00
29 December 2010	22.50	11.00
5 January 2011	22.50	11.00
12 January 2011	22.50	11.00

Note: Data are for one-month median haircuts.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Exhibit 10
Financing Conditions

Top-left panel
A-Rated Corporate Bond Spreads by Sector*

Basis Points
Date	Financial	Nonfinancial
2 January 2007	99.95	96.32
3 January 2007	98.77	95.37
4 January 2007	98.75	95.25
5 January 2007	97.04	94.61
8 January 2007	97.84	95.23
9 January 2007	98.17	95.48
10 January 2007	97.08	94.41
11 January 2007	97.69	94.97
12 January 2007	97.81	95.07
15 January 2007	ND	ND
16 January 2007	97.87	94.72
17 January 2007	97.58	94.42
18 January 2007	97.80	93.25
19 January 2007	96.71	92.57
22 January 2007	97.91	93.60
23 January 2007	96.96	92.84
24 January 2007	97.61	93.53
25 January 2007	98.14	93.72
26 January 2007	97.07	92.61
29 January 2007	97.18	93.05
30 January 2007	97.79	93.77
31 January 2007	97.72	93.72
1 February 2007	97.87	93.84
2 February 2007	97.48	93.57
5 February 2007	97.10	93.32
6 February 2007	97.69	93.50
7 February 2007	97.31	92.81
8 February 2007	96.92	92.52
9 February 2007	97.06	92.19
12 February 2007	96.04	91.54
13 February 2007	95.99	91.20
14 February 2007	97.09	91.34
15 February 2007	97.37	91.21
16 February 2007	96.45	90.85
19 February 2007	ND	ND
20 February 2007	96.85	90.57
21 February 2007	96.80	90.19
22 February 2007	96.58	89.98
23 February 2007	96.64	89.63
26 February 2007	97.21	89.77
27 February 2007	100.22	92.91
28 February 2007	99.64	91.18
1 March 2007	100.70	91.83
2 March 2007	101.29	91.97
5 March 2007	103.70	95.16
6 March 2007	102.65	94.14
7 March 2007	102.43	93.80
8 March 2007	102.06	93.31
9 March 2007	102.41	93.10
12 March 2007	102.66	93.16
13 March 2007	103.43	93.97
14 March 2007	103.23	94.03
15 March 2007	103.99	94.66
16 March 2007	104.83	95.19
19 March 2007	104.38	95.18
20 March 2007	107.05	95.61
21 March 2007	106.48	95.47
22 March 2007	105.72	95.20
23 March 2007	105.72	95.24
26 March 2007	105.65	95.12
27 March 2007	106.09	95.99
28 March 2007	106.77	96.51
29 March 2007	106.48	96.01
30 March 2007	106.71	96.30
2 April 2007	106.96	95.81
3 April 2007	106.82	95.66
4 April 2007	107.57	96.53
5 April 2007	107.32	96.19
6 April 2007	ND	ND
9 April 2007	106.75	96.16
10 April 2007	106.19	95.21
11 April 2007	106.73	95.49
12 April 2007	106.60	95.07
13 April 2007	108.47	94.90
16 April 2007	109.34	94.84
17 April 2007	109.80	94.91
18 April 2007	109.49	94.54
19 April 2007	109.53	94.95
20 April 2007	108.85	94.36
23 April 2007	109.27	94.93
24 April 2007	109.43	95.57
25 April 2007	109.02	95.01
26 April 2007	108.85	95.01
27 April 2007	109.36	95.55
30 April 2007	110.57	96.07
1 May 2007	110.54	96.48
2 May 2007	110.18	96.10
3 May 2007	110.01	95.95
4 May 2007	110.31	95.89
7 May 2007	110.45	96.79
8 May 2007	109.86	96.17
9 May 2007	110.37	96.73
10 May 2007	110.41	96.53
11 May 2007	109.79	96.32
14 May 2007	109.50	95.96
15 May 2007	109.77	96.01
16 May 2007	110.07	96.37
17 May 2007	109.89	96.28
18 May 2007	109.73	96.45
21 May 2007	109.71	96.84
22 May 2007	108.44	96.17
23 May 2007	109.02	96.19
24 May 2007	109.45	96.62
25 May 2007	109.15	96.36
28 May 2007	ND	ND
29 May 2007	110.24	97.42
30 May 2007	109.58	96.97
31 May 2007	112.81	95.87
1 June 2007	113.21	96.00
4 June 2007	113.27	96.02
5 June 2007	113.03	95.29
6 June 2007	114.19	96.11
7 June 2007	115.15	97.07
8 June 2007	116.27	98.05
11 June 2007	116.15	98.18
12 June 2007	115.61	97.40
13 June 2007	117.47	98.33
14 June 2007	116.19	97.18
15 June 2007	116.91	98.09
18 June 2007	116.24	97.20
19 June 2007	116.68	98.22
20 June 2007	116.23	97.70
21 June 2007	118.56	98.93
22 June 2007	119.33	99.92
25 June 2007	118.73	99.79
26 June 2007	120.02	100.06
27 June 2007	119.82	99.78
28 June 2007	120.89	101.38
29 June 2007	121.05	102.20
2 July 2007	119.17	99.79
3 July 2007	119.32	99.28
4 July 2007	ND	ND
5 July 2007	120.53	100.01
6 July 2007	120.34	100.62
9 July 2007	120.37	100.54
10 July 2007	120.94	101.34
11 July 2007	121.21	100.81
12 July 2007	122.22	101.20
13 July 2007	123.14	101.78
16 July 2007	122.97	101.52
17 July 2007	125.07	102.25
18 July 2007	125.82	102.27
19 July 2007	126.50	102.36
20 July 2007	131.54	104.23
23 July 2007	131.75	104.73
24 July 2007	132.75	106.09
25 July 2007	132.66	106.84
26 July 2007	146.43	115.85
27 July 2007	148.86	119.05
30 July 2007	150.61	120.73
31 July 2007	150.97	121.91
1 August 2007	152.26	121.58
2 August 2007	151.64	119.81
3 August 2007	154.74	120.63
6 August 2007	161.82	123.03
7 August 2007	159.09	119.67
8 August 2007	159.36	119.25
9 August 2007	160.13	119.59
10 August 2007	162.23	118.12
13 August 2007	162.90	118.69
14 August 2007	163.91	119.70
15 August 2007	167.36	121.74
16 August 2007	170.23	122.51
17 August 2007	170.05	123.67
20 August 2007	172.04	125.18
21 August 2007	173.14	125.49
22 August 2007	173.40	126.42
23 August 2007	173.64	126.54
24 August 2007	175.15	125.79
27 August 2007	174.07	125.29
28 August 2007	174.71	125.98
29 August 2007	174.10	125.73
30 August 2007	176.70	128.21
31 August 2007	177.62	126.97
3 September 2007	ND	ND
4 September 2007	177.81	127.37
5 September 2007	177.75	127.00
6 September 2007	178.62	128.83
7 September 2007	180.90	131.60
10 September 2007	186.18	134.03
11 September 2007	189.88	134.65
12 September 2007	190.95	136.69
13 September 2007	192.77	137.12
14 September 2007	192.62	137.25
17 September 2007	192.13	136.79
18 September 2007	188.02	136.80
19 September 2007	188.41	135.83
20 September 2007	169.57	133.12
21 September 2007	176.00	132.02
24 September 2007	172.56	130.32
25 September 2007	170.09	130.42
26 September 2007	168.70	130.84
27 September 2007	167.25	130.50
28 September 2007	167.61	130.49
1 October 2007	168.44	129.76
2 October 2007	167.62	128.43
3 October 2007	166.91	127.05
4 October 2007	163.92	126.59
5 October 2007	163.38	124.34
8 October 2007	ND	ND
9 October 2007	162.10	123.60
10 October 2007	158.32	122.28
11 October 2007	157.28	121.07
12 October 2007	156.47	119.11
15 October 2007	154.40	118.16
16 October 2007	155.58	119.96
17 October 2007	156.17	119.73
18 October 2007	158.30	120.31
19 October 2007	160.58	122.13
22 October 2007	163.82	122.07
23 October 2007	162.98	122.10
24 October 2007	163.23	121.04
25 October 2007	167.78	123.28
26 October 2007	167.59	122.66
29 October 2007	169.75	123.07
30 October 2007	169.26	122.18
31 October 2007	174.71	123.03
1 November 2007	178.62	124.93
2 November 2007	180.42	124.19
5 November 2007	188.26	124.97
6 November 2007	191.59	125.73
7 November 2007	195.84	127.85
8 November 2007	197.80	129.53
9 November 2007	201.81	130.84
12 November 2007	ND	ND
13 November 2007	206.08	133.26
14 November 2007	205.09	133.04
15 November 2007	205.51	135.46
16 November 2007	207.18	136.34
19 November 2007	211.29	138.33
20 November 2007	211.86	139.98
21 November 2007	213.63	139.05
22 November 2007	ND	ND
23 November 2007	215.37	140.51
26 November 2007	220.51	142.79
27 November 2007	220.41	142.49
28 November 2007	221.23	143.88
29 November 2007	223.60	145.62
30 November 2007	224.44	145.14
3 December 2007	223.67	147.21
4 December 2007	226.07	149.87
5 December 2007	225.08	149.96
6 December 2007	225.91	152.27
7 December 2007	228.07	151.88
10 December 2007	222.80	153.16
11 December 2007	221.36	153.22
12 December 2007	223.33	154.43
13 December 2007	219.84	152.90
14 December 2007	222.30	154.27
17 December 2007	222.23	154.15
18 December 2007	220.46	152.72
19 December 2007	223.91	154.49
20 December 2007	221.93	151.29
21 December 2007	224.72	152.10
24 December 2007	223.87	151.28
25 December 2007	ND	ND
26 December 2007	224.75	151.24
27 December 2007	224.42	151.00
28 December 2007	222.81	150.18
31 December 2007	224.68	149.82
1 January 2008	ND	ND
2 January 2008	ND	ND
3 January 2008	ND	ND
4 January 2008	229.60	153.92
7 January 2008	230.83	154.21
8 January 2008	231.65	154.81
9 January 2008	237.02	158.02
10 January 2008	238.87	161.20
11 January 2008	241.70	162.03
14 January 2008	241.80	161.02
15 January 2008	250.87	162.09
16 January 2008	251.33	160.65
17 January 2008	255.74	166.14
18 January 2008	258.38	167.38
21 January 2008	ND	ND
22 January 2008	263.73	167.90
23 January 2008	257.87	162.05
24 January 2008	260.04	167.03
25 January 2008	257.88	168.22
28 January 2008	258.54	168.16
29 January 2008	257.64	166.99
30 January 2008	257.93	166.66
31 January 2008	257.55	164.46
1 February 2008	256.72	163.48
4 February 2008	258.98	163.61
5 February 2008	258.37	163.89
6 February 2008	258.50	162.77
7 February 2008	259.73	163.86
8 February 2008	262.85	165.64
11 February 2008	264.67	164.64
12 February 2008	267.78	167.01
13 February 2008	265.72	165.33
14 February 2008	265.62	165.43
15 February 2008	270.92	167.92
18 February 2008	ND	ND
19 February 2008	270.66	166.33
20 February 2008	271.60	167.11
21 February 2008	272.80	169.16
22 February 2008	274.25	168.96
25 February 2008	273.71	168.55
26 February 2008	274.71	168.60
27 February 2008	278.40	170.17
28 February 2008	281.91	170.71
29 February 2008	294.47	170.66
3 March 2008	296.92	169.44
4 March 2008	298.14	165.44
5 March 2008	309.24	173.45
6 March 2008	319.51	178.01
7 March 2008	324.68	177.44
10 March 2008	333.41	177.98
11 March 2008	339.67	179.47
12 March 2008	342.14	180.65
13 March 2008	347.41	181.36
14 March 2008	346.54	186.40
17 March 2008	349.93	188.20
18 March 2008	348.78	191.15
19 March 2008	342.18	191.93
20 March 2008	346.32	192.63
21 March 2008	ND	ND
24 March 2008	342.16	190.65
25 March 2008	337.91	190.56
26 March 2008	337.72	190.73
27 March 2008	338.03	190.79
28 March 2008	339.27	191.08
31 March 2008	336.79	188.59
1 April 2008	333.40	191.23
2 April 2008	330.71	190.82
3 April 2008	327.03	191.75
4 April 2008	320.55	189.18
7 April 2008	318.69	188.35
8 April 2008	317.33	186.75
9 April 2008	318.63	184.23
10 April 2008	323.25	187.15
11 April 2008	322.98	186.36
14 April 2008	322.83	185.75
15 April 2008	320.01	185.57
16 April 2008	316.63	186.06
17 April 2008	317.16	184.32
18 April 2008	311.01	179.44
21 April 2008	305.55	179.02
22 April 2008	305.45	178.29
23 April 2008	302.43	175.40
24 April 2008	303.96	174.87
25 April 2008	302.20	171.95
28 April 2008	303.43	173.26
29 April 2008	303.23	171.36
30 April 2008	306.51	168.58
1 May 2008	303.21	165.82
2 May 2008	290.39	161.21
5 May 2008	295.62	160.88
6 May 2008	295.72	161.05
7 May 2008	296.87	162.93
8 May 2008	298.27	163.62
9 May 2008	298.00	162.01
12 May 2008	297.95	162.41
13 May 2008	299.62	164.33
14 May 2008	299.42	164.09
15 May 2008	300.48	164.63
16 May 2008	297.69	162.90
19 May 2008	298.95	164.15
20 May 2008	300.90	163.98
21 May 2008	302.28	166.48
22 May 2008	305.02	166.85
23 May 2008	306.17	165.82
26 May 2008	ND	ND
27 May 2008	308.11	167.32
28 May 2008	306.25	165.90
29 May 2008	304.28	167.02
30 May 2008	301.77	165.77
2 June 2008	303.80	166.85
3 June 2008	304.03	164.19
4 June 2008	303.59	163.02
5 June 2008	302.68	163.20
6 June 2008	305.69	164.21
9 June 2008	303.75	163.64
10 June 2008	308.68	165.92
11 June 2008	308.40	164.03
12 June 2008	309.75	166.93
13 June 2008	310.17	167.25
16 June 2008	311.94	167.65
17 June 2008	309.05	168.23
18 June 2008	311.71	169.01
19 June 2008	312.68	168.90
20 June 2008	317.64	170.21
23 June 2008	320.66	171.51
24 June 2008	327.77	175.96
25 June 2008	327.42	175.43
26 June 2008	335.96	178.40
27 June 2008	339.37	183.68
30 June 2008	343.83	182.71
1 July 2008	347.32	183.09
2 July 2008	351.34	181.43
3 July 2008	352.44	183.19
4 July 2008	ND	ND
7 July 2008	350.66	181.50
8 July 2008	354.74	183.25
9 July 2008	359.32	185.56
10 July 2008	360.97	184.74
11 July 2008	371.31	187.56
14 July 2008	372.87	186.86
15 July 2008	382.66	187.98
16 July 2008	390.93	186.19
17 July 2008	389.65	188.73
18 July 2008	391.97	188.79
21 July 2008	391.35	189.49
22 July 2008	390.64	188.06
23 July 2008	388.51	189.84
24 July 2008	389.25	189.13
25 July 2008	386.39	188.02
28 July 2008	387.05	186.24
29 July 2008	388.71	186.12
30 July 2008	392.57	188.84
31 July 2008	393.01	190.27
1 August 2008	390.65	187.99
4 August 2008	391.76	189.94
5 August 2008	388.98	188.69
6 August 2008	390.34	190.65
7 August 2008	390.10	189.93
8 August 2008	388.54	190.11
11 August 2008	389.95	190.35
12 August 2008	392.47	190.25
13 August 2008	395.54	188.77
14 August 2008	399.33	189.96
15 August 2008	401.10	190.71
18 August 2008	402.88	191.83
19 August 2008	410.04	192.44
20 August 2008	413.01	194.71
21 August 2008	416.26	194.70
22 August 2008	417.07	195.26
25 August 2008	420.41	196.81
26 August 2008	421.83	197.65
27 August 2008	422.91	198.14
28 August 2008	423.95	199.01
29 August 2008	420.62	195.12
1 September 2008	ND	ND
2 September 2008	420.30	196.33
3 September 2008	422.16	197.12
4 September 2008	424.68	199.34
5 September 2008	424.53	199.38
8 September 2008	424.26	201.95
9 September 2008	428.84	201.83
10 September 2008	438.96	206.12
11 September 2008	469.36	208.21
12 September 2008	477.66	209.51
15 September 2008	503.23	221.51
16 September 2008	564.49	229.11
17 September 2008	595.11	231.83
18 September 2008	596.21	225.66
19 September 2008	520.76	230.48
22 September 2008	504.90	227.29
23 September 2008	528.14	228.72
24 September 2008	538.08	225.57
25 September 2008	554.17	239.50
26 September 2008	596.61	245.93
29 September 2008	591.02	260.74
30 September 2008	606.32	251.56
1 October 2008	605.52	259.87
2 October 2008	649.28	268.81
3 October 2008	643.73	274.89
6 October 2008	656.75	278.04
7 October 2008	658.10	289.59
8 October 2008	672.70	295.82
9 October 2008	677.51	298.49
10 October 2008	736.62	330.09
13 October 2008	ND	ND
14 October 2008	616.15	324.08
15 October 2008	603.38	327.24
16 October 2008	627.03	339.69
17 October 2008	635.27	352.88
20 October 2008	641.38	353.15
21 October 2008	634.88	348.76
22 October 2008	642.67	349.49
23 October 2008	633.33	343.13
24 October 2008	644.43	348.03
27 October 2008	646.47	350.80
28 October 2008	631.54	349.87
29 October 2008	626.86	348.15
30 October 2008	620.64	342.37
31 October 2008	605.80	331.65
3 November 2008	596.88	324.89
4 November 2008	589.69	321.37
5 November 2008	582.37	320.69
6 November 2008	587.45	319.22
7 November 2008	581.10	314.35
10 November 2008	578.34	314.94
11 November 2008	ND	ND
12 November 2008	579.73	315.87
13 November 2008	577.63	314.96
14 November 2008	582.76	321.67
17 November 2008	593.18	326.47
18 November 2008	596.33	332.18
19 November 2008	614.60	335.55
20 November 2008	633.45	350.29
21 November 2008	655.69	354.60
24 November 2008	647.29	360.98
25 November 2008	648.36	360.30
26 November 2008	652.16	361.09
27 November 2008	ND	ND
28 November 2008	655.60	360.27
1 December 2008	650.19	361.64
2 December 2008	674.29	364.87
3 December 2008	671.70	365.74
4 December 2008	676.49	368.38
5 December 2008	675.29	363.03
8 December 2008	662.18	360.63
9 December 2008	651.68	363.66
10 December 2008	656.58	362.60
11 December 2008	648.28	360.82
12 December 2008	647.64	355.83
15 December 2008	653.90	355.82
16 December 2008	626.51	351.13
17 December 2008	626.84	351.24
18 December 2008	601.18	349.70
19 December 2008	586.78	344.90
22 December 2008	581.12	342.33
23 December 2008	573.47	340.20
24 December 2008	569.96	336.31
25 December 2008	ND	ND
26 December 2008	569.58	334.02
29 December 2008	563.65	329.73
30 December 2008	561.30	325.35
31 December 2008	516.19	318.99
1 January 2009	ND	ND
2 January 2009	515.51	315.37
5 January 2009	519.48	314.00
6 January 2009	501.29	304.34
7 January 2009	494.93	300.55
8 January 2009	475.72	296.13
9 January 2009	473.02	292.49
12 January 2009	471.73	290.68
13 January 2009	478.57	291.83
14 January 2009	503.77	294.61
15 January 2009	498.32	293.63
16 January 2009	478.31	287.94
19 January 2009	ND	ND
20 January 2009	479.35	282.57
21 January 2009	486.05	280.34
22 January 2009	481.44	276.59
23 January 2009	481.80	274.09
26 January 2009	476.31	267.33
27 January 2009	472.05	260.12
28 January 2009	460.32	259.23
29 January 2009	470.53	258.51
30 January 2009	471.98	256.37
2 February 2009	478.48	254.34
3 February 2009	487.24	254.38
4 February 2009	486.54	252.79
5 February 2009	484.61	248.53
6 February 2009	477.53	243.86
9 February 2009	474.39	244.24
10 February 2009	464.53	242.92
11 February 2009	458.52	242.03
12 February 2009	459.70	242.74
13 February 2009	463.88	244.46
16 February 2009	ND	ND
17 February 2009	489.07	251.86
18 February 2009	497.48	252.65
19 February 2009	505.43	254.82
20 February 2009	542.55	255.62
23 February 2009	547.17	259.89
24 February 2009	543.20	260.20
25 February 2009	539.62	261.67
26 February 2009	536.46	261.65
27 February 2009	527.97	262.24
2 March 2009	534.72	264.24
3 March 2009	553.90	267.62
4 March 2009	561.75	264.84
5 March 2009	575.60	264.38
6 March 2009	591.64	266.60
9 March 2009	598.75	269.17
10 March 2009	600.72	269.40
11 March 2009	593.00	269.42
12 March 2009	598.68	273.92
13 March 2009	593.28	274.71
16 March 2009	583.48	273.73
17 March 2009	571.23	273.64
18 March 2009	578.66	278.09
19 March 2009	580.16	285.76
20 March 2009	575.93	287.23
23 March 2009	575.66	291.42
24 March 2009	574.70	293.97
25 March 2009	576.31	297.70
26 March 2009	582.12	297.83
27 March 2009	582.82	296.58
30 March 2009	591.14	297.83
31 March 2009	601.59	296.25
1 April 2009	607.20	297.09
2 April 2009	598.58	294.73
3 April 2009	608.75	294.60
6 April 2009	592.26	290.68
7 April 2009	590.29	286.69
8 April 2009	584.06	284.13
9 April 2009	561.83	278.92
10 April 2009	ND	ND
13 April 2009	558.65	276.48
14 April 2009	556.55	274.55
15 April 2009	556.38	269.21
16 April 2009	548.12	266.89
17 April 2009	537.55	259.85
20 April 2009	534.25	258.13
21 April 2009	535.74	257.44
22 April 2009	537.57	257.06
23 April 2009	535.06	255.55
24 April 2009	534.17	253.01
27 April 2009	529.77	252.34
28 April 2009	532.59	248.01
29 April 2009	531.73	242.63
30 April 2009	523.26	238.33
1 May 2009	520.17	234.63
4 May 2009	520.04	234.90
5 May 2009	509.66	229.98
6 May 2009	500.83	227.03
7 May 2009	489.61	224.42
8 May 2009	475.90	221.36
11 May 2009	476.04	221.93
12 May 2009	471.75	222.38
13 May 2009	466.60	226.94
14 May 2009	470.14	229.26
15 May 2009	469.10	227.48
18 May 2009	463.07	227.33
19 May 2009	458.65	223.18
20 May 2009	449.22	223.67
21 May 2009	444.36	221.09
22 May 2009	445.49	219.63
25 May 2009	ND	ND
26 May 2009	433.19	212.50
27 May 2009	420.65	206.30
28 May 2009	413.70	202.82
29 May 2009	405.83	194.90
1 June 2009	394.24	181.66
2 June 2009	381.73	179.25
3 June 2009	377.07	176.86
4 June 2009	375.20	167.29
5 June 2009	376.45	170.99
8 June 2009	371.26	168.94
9 June 2009	371.45	162.24
10 June 2009	365.58	162.92
11 June 2009	364.21	160.27
12 June 2009	362.15	159.27
15 June 2009	360.03	155.51
16 June 2009	366.48	157.15
17 June 2009	361.55	154.25
18 June 2009	360.59	156.02
19 June 2009	358.70	155.78
22 June 2009	362.25	153.05
23 June 2009	361.89	155.40
24 June 2009	358.74	154.95
25 June 2009	360.69	158.24
26 June 2009	362.19	158.02
29 June 2009	360.74	158.62
30 June 2009	356.85	161.28
1 July 2009	354.42	160.89
2 July 2009	354.33	160.49
3 July 2009	ND	ND
6 July 2009	356.49	161.48
7 July 2009	355.23	161.19
8 July 2009	352.87	159.78
9 July 2009	352.45	160.45
10 July 2009	352.62	159.96
13 July 2009	351.10	157.89
14 July 2009	346.89	154.34
15 July 2009	343.70	152.61
16 July 2009	336.40	150.83
17 July 2009	322.50	148.86
20 July 2009	314.23	146.09
21 July 2009	309.58	141.03
22 July 2009	313.73	140.37
23 July 2009	311.25	139.86
24 July 2009	308.20	136.32
27 July 2009	306.60	133.59
28 July 2009	305.09	131.92
29 July 2009	301.88	128.72
30 July 2009	294.35	124.99
31 July 2009	292.15	121.41
3 August 2009	288.21	120.19
4 August 2009	282.79	118.66
5 August 2009	276.37	115.90
6 August 2009	270.08	112.98
7 August 2009	269.56	113.36
10 August 2009	267.90	114.27
11 August 2009	271.58	117.03
12 August 2009	271.51	115.05
13 August 2009	272.37	116.48
14 August 2009	275.84	117.72
17 August 2009	283.70	121.98
18 August 2009	287.47	124.35
19 August 2009	285.60	123.84
20 August 2009	286.17	125.13
21 August 2009	281.64	122.53
24 August 2009	279.84	123.20
25 August 2009	275.74	122.13
26 August 2009	275.52	121.94
27 August 2009	272.84	122.05
28 August 2009	271.78	121.27
31 August 2009	276.07	123.72
1 September 2009	277.64	124.86
2 September 2009	277.79	125.39
3 September 2009	276.94	125.00
4 September 2009	272.55	124.71
7 September 2009	ND	ND
8 September 2009	269.42	124.76
9 September 2009	266.98	125.05
10 September 2009	260.81	123.57
11 September 2009	256.74	124.65
14 September 2009	254.76	123.49
15 September 2009	248.11	122.45
16 September 2009	244.77	122.27
17 September 2009	247.22	120.35
18 September 2009	244.12	119.75
21 September 2009	246.14	121.30
22 September 2009	243.76	119.43
23 September 2009	242.39	117.14
24 September 2009	244.65	118.02
25 September 2009	246.71	119.02
28 September 2009	249.31	121.29
29 September 2009	253.27	123.05
30 September 2009	256.22	127.49
1 October 2009	257.71	127.84
2 October 2009	260.83	129.77
5 October 2009	257.42	131.69
6 October 2009	252.59	129.87
7 October 2009	256.14	130.50
8 October 2009	257.10	131.55
9 October 2009	254.27	129.68
12 October 2009	ND	ND
13 October 2009	251.57	128.04
14 October 2009	247.64	128.00
15 October 2009	250.14	128.84
16 October 2009	251.91	129.46
19 October 2009	249.37	128.23
20 October 2009	245.50	126.96
21 October 2009	243.71	127.17
22 October 2009	242.27	126.38
23 October 2009	238.42	124.27
26 October 2009	234.74	124.18
27 October 2009	232.34	124.04
28 October 2009	233.95	123.76
29 October 2009	234.87	124.16
30 October 2009	232.73	124.34
2 November 2009	234.53	125.10
3 November 2009	235.26	124.37
4 November 2009	236.05	125.44
5 November 2009	232.22	123.77
6 November 2009	228.89	122.92
9 November 2009	227.54	123.24
10 November 2009	226.91	122.55
11 November 2009	ND	ND
12 November 2009	228.10	121.85
13 November 2009	229.61	122.34
16 November 2009	229.46	122.32
17 November 2009	227.22	121.90
18 November 2009	231.27	123.15
19 November 2009	233.36	122.99
20 November 2009	234.12	122.54
23 November 2009	234.43	122.86
24 November 2009	238.02	124.13
25 November 2009	239.53	125.94
26 November 2009	ND	ND
27 November 2009	245.68	126.76
30 November 2009	248.56	126.74
1 December 2009	246.92	127.49
2 December 2009	246.69	126.79
3 December 2009	236.77	123.67
4 December 2009	235.59	123.99
7 December 2009	234.77	123.58
8 December 2009	231.40	121.97
9 December 2009	230.81	120.99
10 December 2009	226.78	121.49
11 December 2009	221.06	118.69
14 December 2009	215.72	117.92
15 December 2009	216.25	118.97
16 December 2009	217.90	117.36
17 December 2009	219.21	115.48
18 December 2009	217.10	113.85
21 December 2009	214.88	112.82
22 December 2009	213.99	111.31
23 December 2009	212.78	109.35
24 December 2009	209.52	109.57
25 December 2009	ND	ND
28 December 2009	209.99	110.10
29 December 2009	208.68	108.13
30 December 2009	206.51	106.27
31 December 2009	206.44	107.69
1 January 2010	ND	ND
4 January 2010	200.25	106.48
5 January 2010	193.78	103.66
6 January 2010	191.66	101.02
7 January 2010	193.88	101.79
8 January 2010	193.35	102.02
11 January 2010	189.87	100.99
12 January 2010	192.96	102.58
13 January 2010	192.28	102.92
14 January 2010	194.16	102.97
15 January 2010	196.71	102.86
18 January 2010	ND	ND
19 January 2010	197.76	104.47
20 January 2010	199.10	106.54
21 January 2010	201.89	107.78
22 January 2010	205.72	109.86
25 January 2010	207.93	110.76
26 January 2010	209.02	112.39
27 January 2010	210.75	112.24
28 January 2010	212.61	112.16
29 January 2010	210.63	111.49
1 February 2010	210.27	113.75
2 February 2010	208.95	112.99
3 February 2010	210.16	114.36
4 February 2010	216.81	117.73
5 February 2010	219.29	116.80
8 February 2010	222.92	120.35
9 February 2010	225.50	119.30
10 February 2010	227.42	119.26
11 February 2010	231.01	120.20
12 February 2010	233.99	120.61
15 February 2010	ND	ND
16 February 2010	235.03	120.55
17 February 2010	235.13	121.26
18 February 2010	228.78	119.62
19 February 2010	225.65	117.20
22 February 2010	226.22	116.39
23 February 2010	226.76	115.73
24 February 2010	226.12	114.28
25 February 2010	228.52	114.60
26 February 2010	225.53	112.18
1 March 2010	225.65	115.06
2 March 2010	224.24	113.09
3 March 2010	224.83	113.63
4 March 2010	225.30	114.64
5 March 2010	221.70	113.28
8 March 2010	221.28	112.06
9 March 2010	221.02	111.90
10 March 2010	218.96	111.72
11 March 2010	217.63	111.04
12 March 2010	215.79	111.96
15 March 2010	216.12	111.15
16 March 2010	212.52	109.87
17 March 2010	210.13	110.72
18 March 2010	209.00	109.81
19 March 2010	209.02	109.25
22 March 2010	209.72	110.18
23 March 2010	209.84	110.05
24 March 2010	208.91	110.55
25 March 2010	205.97	109.03
26 March 2010	205.39	108.20
29 March 2010	204.28	107.54
30 March 2010	203.07	107.56
31 March 2010	200.65	106.82
1 April 2010	198.17	105.48
2 April 2010	ND	ND
5 April 2010	196.20	105.55
6 April 2010	196.98	106.54
7 April 2010	195.86	105.65
8 April 2010	198.01	105.50
9 April 2010	197.07	105.42
12 April 2010	195.78	105.42
13 April 2010	192.65	103.79
14 April 2010	189.04	103.66
15 April 2010	188.36	104.22
16 April 2010	194.06	103.11
19 April 2010	197.35	103.28
20 April 2010	194.94	102.56
21 April 2010	193.41	101.64
22 April 2010	198.85	100.56
23 April 2010	200.82	101.23
26 April 2010	207.74	101.23
27 April 2010	211.05	100.99
28 April 2010	210.39	102.41
29 April 2010	204.73	100.92
30 April 2010	209.75	100.35
3 May 2010	211.41	102.10
4 May 2010	217.73	102.81
5 May 2010	221.16	102.10
6 May 2010	245.28	107.00
7 May 2010	254.12	115.11
10 May 2010	238.66	112.09
11 May 2010	243.30	112.41
12 May 2010	241.93	110.76
13 May 2010	242.40	110.89
14 May 2010	247.42	110.26
17 May 2010	247.49	109.33
18 May 2010	251.38	109.50
19 May 2010	258.41	112.85
20 May 2010	268.41	118.53
21 May 2010	266.82	118.22
24 May 2010	268.42	119.09
25 May 2010	279.37	122.11
26 May 2010	274.60	126.48
27 May 2010	271.40	125.18
28 May 2010	270.40	123.93
31 May 2010	ND	ND
1 June 2010	271.59	125.19
2 June 2010	270.60	124.98
3 June 2010	270.07	125.17
4 June 2010	272.81	124.61
7 June 2010	276.39	127.37
8 June 2010	277.92	126.51
9 June 2010	278.69	127.31
10 June 2010	283.90	127.58
11 June 2010	283.35	126.70
14 June 2010	282.20	127.56
15 June 2010	277.57	125.79
16 June 2010	279.18	128.21
17 June 2010	273.83	125.89
18 June 2010	273.05	125.87
21 June 2010	269.49	124.35
22 June 2010	271.42	ND
23 June 2010	273.63	126.30
24 June 2010	275.89	124.83
25 June 2010	276.34	125.48
28 June 2010	276.12	125.36
29 June 2010	279.92	126.31
30 June 2010	275.49	124.74
1 July 2010	275.06	123.80
2 July 2010	273.30	124.24
5 July 2010	ND	ND
6 July 2010	270.56	123.73
7 July 2010	269.03	123.34
8 July 2010	266.36	124.33
9 July 2010	263.53	124.06
12 July 2010	259.34	122.93
13 July 2010	252.92	122.76
14 July 2010	252.08	122.81
15 July 2010	251.44	122.53
16 July 2010	249.97	122.50
19 July 2010	250.50	122.12
20 July 2010	250.42	120.27
21 July 2010	252.35	123.05
22 July 2010	251.24	120.61
23 July 2010	250.05	119.82
26 July 2010	247.41	117.82
27 July 2010	241.44	115.48
28 July 2010	242.94	115.48
29 July 2010	243.82	114.58
30 July 2010	245.92	114.77
2 August 2010	243.95	115.01
3 August 2010	243.44	116.61
4 August 2010	241.90	115.31
5 August 2010	244.57	116.91
6 August 2010	246.57	116.46
9 August 2010	247.45	116.38
10 August 2010	254.51	120.01
11 August 2010	254.56	119.82
12 August 2010	256.91	120.92
13 August 2010	255.47	121.07
16 August 2010	254.82	120.80
17 August 2010	253.79	121.60
18 August 2010	254.00	119.85
19 August 2010	254.34	119.38
20 August 2010	255.51	118.43
23 August 2010	257.28	120.48
24 August 2010	258.40	119.77
25 August 2010	259.55	119.29
26 August 2010	260.77	120.02
27 August 2010	261.15	121.07
30 August 2010	263.61	121.88
31 August 2010	267.41	124.07
1 September 2010	263.99	122.75
2 September 2010	263.22	122.36
3 September 2010	257.04	118.45
6 September 2010	ND	ND
7 September 2010	258.44	120.77
8 September 2010	256.77	120.37
9 September 2010	256.79	121.10
10 September 2010	252.93	119.18
13 September 2010	250.17	119.19
14 September 2010	249.49	117.59
15 September 2010	251.57	117.99
16 September 2010	249.90	118.22
17 September 2010	249.68	117.30
20 September 2010	249.08	117.63
21 September 2010	248.27	116.50
22 September 2010	252.27	118.14
23 September 2010	253.61	118.12
24 September 2010	252.73	117.45
27 September 2010	252.22	117.71
28 September 2010	252.64	118.66
29 September 2010	252.90	119.94
30 September 2010	251.80	119.29
1 October 2010	249.85	119.29
4 October 2010	249.69	119.52
5 October 2010	246.26	118.98
6 October 2010	244.97	119.27
7 October 2010	243.48	118.82
8 October 2010	241.69	117.93
11 October 2010	ND	ND
12 October 2010	245.25	118.24
13 October 2010	245.49	117.47
14 October 2010	255.05	118.09
15 October 2010	258.01	119.48
18 October 2010	256.73	117.63
19 October 2010	255.95	119.25
20 October 2010	257.14	118.07
21 October 2010	254.11	116.49
22 October 2010	253.06	117.73
25 October 2010	248.73	116.74
26 October 2010	245.45	115.84
27 October 2010	242.79	114.09
28 October 2010	242.76	116.19
29 October 2010	244.55	116.94
1 November 2010	243.50	117.75
2 November 2010	242.64	117.41
3 November 2010	244.12	118.40
4 November 2010	244.30	119.60
5 November 2010	242.92	120.12
8 November 2010	242.65	120.72
9 November 2010	238.81	118.42
10 November 2010	241.10	118.89
11 November 2010	ND	ND
12 November 2010	245.33	118.70
15 November 2010	244.21	119.26
16 November 2010	248.22	119.03
17 November 2010	242.26	116.49
18 November 2010	242.54	117.33
19 November 2010	243.56	117.24
22 November 2010	245.30	118.13
23 November 2010	248.54	118.27
24 November 2010	247.37	117.09
25 November 2010	ND	ND
26 November 2010	247.34	117.05
29 November 2010	251.35	116.76
30 November 2010	255.16	117.53
1 December 2010	253.45	117.85
2 December 2010	250.48	118.04
3 December 2010	246.97	117.30
6 December 2010	246.28	116.79
7 December 2010	241.56	117.30
8 December 2010	235.11	112.17
9 December 2010	232.49	111.05
10 December 2010	227.97	108.79
13 December 2010	227.76	108.59
14 December 2010	223.98	107.26
15 December 2010	224.32	108.36
16 December 2010	227.13	111.52
17 December 2010	222.48	108.43
20 December 2010	220.97	109.28
21 December 2010	218.70	108.12
22 December 2010	217.64	107.79
23 December 2010	216.55	106.74
24 December 2010	ND	ND
27 December 2010	217.39	107.74
28 December 2010	215.67	107.02
29 December 2010	215.38	107.54
30 December 2010	213.31	108.64
31 December 2010	213.53	107.83
3 January 2011	207.15	106.95
4 January 2011	204.13	106.81
5 January 2011	204.22	104.88
6 January 2011	205.99	105.03
7 January 2011	211.78	105.43
10 January 2011	213.74	106.72
11 January 2011	209.58	104.47
12 January 2011	208.71	105.66
13 January 2011	205.18	104.55
14 January 2011	207.73	105.88
17 January 2011	ND	ND
18 January 2011	206.76	105.71
19 January 2011	204.79	104.80
20 January 2011	207.64	106.13
21 January 2011	203.38	104.82
24 January 2011	202.93	105.01

Note: Ten-year maturity. Estimated from curve fit to Merrill Lynch bond yields. Treasury yields from smoothed yield curve estiamted from off-the-run securities.

Top-right panel
Composite Index of Changes in Bank Credit Standards

Period	Net percent tightening
2000:Q1	3.92
2000:Q2	7.12
2000:Q3	20.94
2000:Q4	32.74
2001:Q1	42.40
2001:Q2	31.05
2001:Q3	25.71
2001:Q4	42.15
2002:Q1	31.33
2002:Q2	16.26
2002:Q3	18.20
2002:Q4	16.73
2003:Q1	15.85
2003:Q2	9.12
2003:Q3	0.66
2003:Q4	-3.69
2004:Q1	-11.44
2004:Q2	-14.40
2004:Q3	-16.53
2004:Q4	-15.74
2005:Q1	-19.94
2005:Q2	-19.90
2005:Q3	-12.21
2005:Q4	-12.17
2006:Q1	-6.23
2006:Q2	-16.77
2006:Q3	-20.07
2006:Q4	-0.48
2007:Q1	8.44
2007:Q2	5.35
2007:Q3	22.96
2007:Q4	57.02
2008:Q1	66.84
2008:Q2	78.93
2008:Q3	82.60
2008:Q4	86.99
2009:Q1	76.03
2009:Q2	52.19
2009:Q3	36.66
2009:Q4	31.75
2010:Q1	1.16
2010:Q2	-12.65
2010:Q3	-11.68
2010:Q4	-4.04
2011:Q1	-10.75

Middle-left panel
Bank Spreads of Loan Rates Over Costs

Net percent increasing
Period	Spreads for large and medium-sized firms	Spreads for small firms
1990:Q2	12.00	7.20
1990:Q3	25.85	17.20
1990:Q4	51.80	33.90
1991:Q1	59.00	37.50
1991:Q2	45.50	25.40
1991:Q3	31.25	14.00
1991:Q4	31.50	12.00
1992:Q1	11.35	14.00
1992:Q2	11.65	7.10
1992:Q3	0.00	5.20
1992:Q4	-3.60	-7.10
1993:Q1	-0.90	0.00
1993:Q2	-23.65	-10.70
1993:Q3	-39.35	-16.90
1993:Q4	-55.90	-31.00
1994:Q1	-46.55	-19.30
1994:Q2	-58.30	-26.80
1994:Q3	-52.20	-21.10
1994:Q4	-46.10	-24.50
1995:Q1	-44.45	-28.10
1995:Q2	-52.10	-29.30
1995:Q3	-45.70	-19.30
1995:Q4	-33.70	-12.20
1996:Q1	-30.65	-7.00
1996:Q2	-36.10	-17.40
1996:Q3	-28.75	-5.60
1996:Q4	-34.55	-27.20
1997:Q1	-33.25	-11.10
1997:Q2	-32.45	-12.30
1997:Q3	-38.50	-25.50
1997:Q4	-40.40	-40.40
1998:Q1	-25.40	-24.10
1998:Q2	-34.00	-25.00
1998:Q3	-14.30	-30.40
1998:Q4	47.30	18.90
1999:Q1	31.40	5.70
1999:Q2	7.10	1.80
1999:Q3	21.50	5.50
1999:Q4	23.60	-1.90
2000:Q1	25.00	10.00
2000:Q2	35.20	16.00
2000:Q3	35.80	25.40
2000:Q4	54.40	26.90
2001:Q1	57.10	28.90
2001:Q2	44.40	22.30
2001:Q3	50.80	38.20
2001:Q4	58.90	41.80
2002:Q1	40.00	36.40
2002:Q2	23.70	13.20
2002:Q3	41.10	20.00
2002:Q4	29.10	14.80
2003:Q1	27.10	15.50
2003:Q2	14.60	11.10
2003:Q3	-12.30	-3.60
2003:Q4	-13.80	-10.50
2004:Q1	-26.80	-16.70
2004:Q2	-39.30	-25.90
2004:Q3	-30.80	-29.10
2004:Q4	-50.00	-38.20
2005:Q1	-45.50	-26.00
2005:Q2	-70.40	-54.70
2005:Q3	-46.30	-37.70
2005:Q4	-45.60	-36.80
2006:Q1	-42.50	-33.40
2006:Q2	-59.70	-45.60
2006:Q3	-41.80	-21.50
2006:Q4	-29.60	-31.50
2007:Q1	-44.60	-29.60
2007:Q2	-52.80	-37.20
2007:Q3	-32.10	-32.70
2007:Q4	34.60	21.10
2008:Q1	43.60	40.10
2008:Q2	71.00	63.60
2008:Q3	80.80	71.10
2008:Q4	98.20	92.70
2009:Q1	92.50	88.50
2009:Q2	79.20	75.00
2009:Q3	59.30	64.20
2009:Q4	40.40	42.90
2010:Q1	9.10	14.80
2010:Q2	-7.10	9.30
2010:Q3	-49.10	-32.70
2010:Q4	-33.30	-21.40
2011:Q1	-47.40	-29.60

Middle-right panel
Leveraged Loan and High-yield Bond Issuance

Billions of dollars, annual rate
Period	Leveraged loans	High-yield bonds
2004	223.43	122.08
2005	240.98	79.95
2006	366.15	126.22
2007	425.80	117.17
2008	69.59	30.95
2009	56.33	124.02
2010:Q1	152.68	209.67
2010:Q2	198.16	209.67
2010:Q3	209.60	209.67
2010:Q4	266.00	209.67

Note: Leveraged loans to institutional investors.

Bottom-left panel
Consumer Credit

3-month moving average
Period	Percent change, a.r.
March 2000	8.18
April 2000	8.59
May 2000	9.17
June 2000	13.07
July 2000	16.05
August 2000	18.37
September 2000	15.63
October 2000	14.18
November 2000	12.50
December 2000	12.00
January 2001	10.98
February 2001	11.27
March 2001	10.12
April 2001	10.63
May 2001	8.18
June 2001	8.05
July 2001	5.86
August 2001	5.94
September 2001	5.16
October 2001	7.29
November 2001	11.74
December 2001	11.79
January 2002	8.44
February 2002	5.14
March 2002	5.99
April 2002	8.26
May 2002	7.56
June 2002	7.48
July 2002	7.82
August 2002	7.09
September 2002	5.02
October 2002	3.54
November 2002	3.46
December 2002	4.10
January 2003	5.19
February 2003	5.79
March 2003	6.07
April 2003	6.65
May 2003	7.35
June 2003	6.88
July 2003	5.42
August 2003	4.28
September 2003	4.71
October 2003	4.88
November 2003	3.25
December 2003	3.88
January 2004	4.51
February 2004	5.78
March 2004	6.40
April 2004	4.87
May 2004	5.16
June 2004	3.67
July 2004	4.76
August 2004	4.22
September 2004	6.14
October 2004	7.55
November 2004	7.69
December 2004	6.08
January 2005	3.78
February 2005	5.28
March 2005	5.22
April 2005	6.69
May 2005	3.97
June 2005	5.19
July 2005	4.58
August 2005	6.21
September 2005	4.28
October 2005	3.48
November 2005	2.97
December 2005	3.47
January 2006	4.03
February 2006	4.13
March 2006	3.16
April 2006	3.13
May 2006	3.99
June 2006	4.07
July 2006	4.23
August 2006	3.49
September 2006	4.21
October 2006	3.46
November 2006	4.71
December 2006	5.00
January 2007	5.08
February 2007	4.15
March 2007	5.15
April 2007	5.40
May 2007	6.33
June 2007	5.75
July 2007	6.64
August 2007	6.87
September 2007	7.06
October 2007	6.72
November 2007	6.11
December 2007	5.14
January 2008	4.73
February 2008	4.10
March 2008	5.04
April 2008	5.88
May 2008	4.22
June 2008	3.65
July 2008	2.39
August 2008	1.00
September 2008	0.05
October 2008	-1.45
November 2008	-1.08
December 2008	-2.32
January 2009	-1.39
February 2009	-2.19
March 2009	-3.54
April 2009	-5.79
May 2009	-5.12
June 2009	-4.67
July 2009	-4.35
August 2009	-4.14
September 2009	-3.75
October 2009	-3.38
November 2009	-5.33
December 2009	-5.38
January 2010	-4.50
February 2010	-3.51
March 2010	-3.85
April 2010	-5.34
May 2010	-4.56
June 2010	-3.27
July 2010	-2.35
August 2010	-2.06
September 2010	-1.73
October 2010	0.37
November 2010	1.41

Bottom-right panel
Total Debt Growth for Households and Nonfinancial Businesses

Four-quarter percent change
Period	Households	Nonfinancial businesses
1989:Q1	9.87	8.81
1989:Q2	9.51	8.40
1989:Q3	9.39	7.36
1989:Q4	9.05	6.81
1990:Q1	9.61	6.20
1990:Q2	9.30	5.04
1990:Q3	8.79	4.80
1990:Q4	7.89	3.49
1991:Q1	6.56	1.27
1991:Q2	6.24	0.39
1991:Q3	5.25	-1.08
1991:Q4	5.27	-2.44
1992:Q1	5.25	-1.68
1992:Q2	4.51	-1.80
1992:Q3	5.10	-1.10
1992:Q4	5.33	-0.17
1993:Q1	4.86	-0.71
1993:Q2	5.64	-0.42
1993:Q3	6.01	-0.05
1993:Q4	6.04	0.57
1994:Q1	6.81	2.01
1994:Q2	6.99	2.78
1994:Q3	7.05	3.60
1994:Q4	7.64	4.07
1995:Q1	7.69	5.15
1995:Q2	7.66	6.48
1995:Q3	7.70	6.96
1995:Q4	6.83	7.83
1996:Q1	7.36	7.50
1996:Q2	7.31	7.21
1996:Q3	6.92	7.32
1996:Q4	6.94	6.57
1997:Q1	6.14	6.79
1997:Q2	5.87	7.18
1997:Q3	5.97	8.04
1997:Q4	5.81	9.89
1998:Q1	6.21	10.98
1998:Q2	6.96	11.87
1998:Q3	6.93	12.07
1998:Q4	7.77	11.66
1999:Q1	8.21	12.05
1999:Q2	8.06	10.96
1999:Q3	8.82	11.63
1999:Q4	8.34	11.38
2000:Q1	8.09	10.94
2000:Q2	8.41	11.66
2000:Q3	8.59	9.70
2000:Q4	9.24	9.31
2001:Q1	9.48	7.74
2001:Q2	9.72	6.71
2001:Q3	9.66	6.40
2001:Q4	9.62	5.46
2002:Q1	9.94	5.19
2002:Q2	9.85	4.00
2002:Q3	9.97	3.09
2002:Q4	10.77	2.75
2003:Q1	10.99	2.44
2003:Q2	11.86	2.66
2003:Q3	12.31	2.70
2003:Q4	12.03	2.66
2004:Q1	11.62	3.42
2004:Q2	11.28	3.71
2004:Q3	10.87	4.80
2004:Q4	11.20	6.24
2005:Q1	11.31	6.53
2005:Q2	11.21	7.60
2005:Q3	11.48	8.04
2005:Q4	11.10	8.63
2006:Q1	11.61	9.55
2006:Q2	11.59	10.05
2006:Q3	10.98	9.91
2006:Q4	10.10	10.49
2007:Q1	8.88	10.67
2007:Q2	7.83	11.54
2007:Q3	7.23	13.28
2007:Q4	6.75	13.13
2008:Q1	5.76	12.38
2008:Q2	3.85	10.63
2008:Q3	2.19	8.27
2008:Q4	0.30	5.43
2009:Q1	-0.78	3.31
2009:Q2	-1.22	0.85
2009:Q3	-1.75	-1.37
2009:Q4	-1.73	-2.53
2010:Q1	-1.84	-2.30
2010:Q2	-1.90	-1.69
2010:Q3	-1.78	-0.19
Forecast
2010:Q4	-1.76	1.50
2011:Q1	-1.63	1.80
2011:Q2	-1.06	2.44
2011:Q3	-0.49	2.68
2011:Q4	0.20	2.68
2012:Q1	0.79	2.95
2012:Q2	1.25	3.34
2012:Q3	1.72	3.76
2012:Q4	2.16	4.09

Exhibit 11
Real Estate Remains a Risk

Top-left panel
CoreLogic House Price Index Level

Quarterly
2007:Q1 = 100
Period	Current	November TB	December TB
2004:Q1	77.95	ND	ND
2004:Q2	81.16	ND	ND
2004:Q3	83.83	ND	ND
2004:Q4	86.55	ND	ND
2005:Q1	91.83	ND	ND
2005:Q2	95.05	ND	ND
2005:Q3	98.10	ND	ND
2005:Q4	100.20	ND	ND
2006:Q1	102.78	ND	ND
2006:Q2	101.65	ND	ND
2006:Q3	100.95	ND	ND
2006:Q4	101.17	ND	ND
2007:Q1	100.00	ND	ND
2007:Q2	97.62	ND	ND
2007:Q3	94.67	ND	ND
2007:Q4	91.67	ND	ND
2008:Q1	88.19	ND	ND
2008:Q2	84.48	ND	ND
2008:Q3	80.54	ND	ND
2008:Q4	75.80	ND	ND
2009:Q1	71.68	ND	ND
2009:Q2	72.57	ND	ND
2009:Q3	73.40	ND	ND
2009:Q4	73.64	ND	ND
2010:Q1	74.13	ND	ND
2010:Q2	74.43	ND	ND
2010:Q3	71.62	ND	ND
Forecast
2010:Q4	69.37	72.27	69.39
2011:Q1	67.94	71.98	68.32
2011:Q2	67.25	71.79	67.89
2011:Q3	66.83	71.79	67.60
2011:Q4	66.57	71.86	67.41
2012:Q1	66.47	72.02	67.31
2012:Q2	66.47	72.31	67.31
2012:Q3	66.52	72.68	67.36
2012:Q4	66.64	73.17	67.48

Top-right panel
Prices of Commercial Real Estate

Monthly
December 2006 = 100
Period	Investment grade	Non-investment grade
January 2005	83.18	84.81
February 2005	84.92	86.68
March 2005	86.33	88.37
April 2005	86.61	89.87
May 2005	87.22	90.70
June 2005	89.06	92.55
July 2005	90.10	93.36
August 2005	90.54	94.52
September 2005	93.06	95.82
October 2005	95.31	96.43
November 2005	95.28	98.34
December 2005	96.48	96.68
January 2006	98.45	97.84
February 2006	99.09	98.55
March 2006	98.62	98.45
April 2006	99.53	99.25
May 2006	100.61	100.80
June 2006	100.31	102.32
July 2006	102.07	102.22
August 2006	101.73	99.86
September 2006	102.24	100.26
October 2006	102.52	99.39
November 2006	102.57	99.47
December 2006	100.00	100.00
January 2007	102.80	101.24
February 2007	104.47	103.38
March 2007	106.57	104.15
April 2007	108.93	104.75
May 2007	108.07	106.48
June 2007	109.69	105.50
July 2007	110.14	104.09
August 2007	110.28	104.18
September 2007	106.65	106.25
October 2007	107.84	104.33
November 2007	107.46	103.22
December 2007	105.20	103.34
January 2008	107.68	106.16
February 2008	107.08	108.06
March 2008	105.89	104.82
April 2008	107.16	104.87
May 2008	107.33	101.23
June 2008	106.66	100.95
July 2008	104.33	100.49
August 2008	106.49	101.26
September 2008	104.58	99.73
October 2008	102.08	98.87
November 2008	98.30	97.78
December 2008	92.12	95.04
January 2009	94.88	90.90
February 2009	93.28	89.19
March 2009	87.98	86.53
April 2009	85.86	84.81
May 2009	81.09	83.44
June 2009	80.02	85.29
July 2009	77.58	84.95
August 2009	77.65	87.66
September 2009	75.70	84.73
October 2009	71.15	81.70
November 2009	70.30	83.18
December 2009	67.66	82.83
January 2010	66.64	86.21
February 2010	66.44	84.52
March 2010	69.45	83.97
April 2010	69.26	83.26
May 2010	73.05	82.31
June 2010	69.96	77.56
July 2010	66.80	80.88
August 2010	69.16	76.44
September 2010	73.22	78.08
October 2010	74.97	74.75
November 2010	71.92	73.44

Source: CoStar.

Middle-left panel
Transition Rate to Delinquency for Residential Mortgages

Three-month moving average
Percent
Period	Nonprime	Prime
April 2003	4.93	1.19
May 2003	4.84	1.21
June 2003	4.77	1.18
July 2003	4.60	1.12
August 2003	4.58	1.09
September 2003	4.40	1.03
October 2003	4.33	0.96
November 2003	4.32	1.00
December 2003	4.34	0.98
January 2004	4.40	1.02
February 2004	4.30	0.93
March 2004	4.27	0.93
April 2004	4.11	0.90
May 2004	4.18	0.94
June 2004	4.05	0.94
July 2004	3.99	0.92
August 2004	3.78	0.85
September 2004	3.76	0.84
October 2004	3.82	0.90
November 2004	3.70	0.89
December 2004	3.64	0.88
January 2005	3.53	0.86
February 2005	3.53	0.88
March 2005	3.52	0.89
April 2005	3.46	0.88
May 2005	3.49	0.87
June 2005	3.47	0.86
July 2005	3.58	0.89
August 2005	3.45	0.86
September 2005	3.50	0.88
October 2005	3.47	0.87
November 2005	3.59	0.92
December 2005	3.56	0.89
January 2006	3.43	0.86
February 2006	3.41	0.84
March 2006	3.30	0.81
April 2006	3.54	0.88
May 2006	3.53	0.87
June 2006	3.61	0.88
July 2006	3.52	0.84
August 2006	3.52	0.85
September 2006	3.62	0.88
October 2006	3.56	0.87
November 2006	3.63	0.89
December 2006	3.77	0.93
January 2007	3.78	0.94
February 2007	3.88	0.97
March 2007	3.84	0.98
April 2007	4.08	1.03
May 2007	4.16	1.03
June 2007	4.34	1.04
July 2007	4.33	1.05
August 2007	4.27	1.01
September 2007	4.48	1.07
October 2007	4.51	1.06
November 2007	4.69	1.09
December 2007	4.60	1.06
January 2008	4.79	1.09
February 2008	4.81	1.07
March 2008	5.01	1.11
April 2008	5.10	1.15
May 2008	5.17	1.17
June 2008	5.06	1.15
July 2008	5.03	1.13
August 2008	5.33	1.23
September 2008	5.33	1.23
October 2008	5.50	1.28
November 2008	5.84	1.38
December 2008	5.97	1.39
January 2009	6.09	1.41
February 2009	5.85	1.30
March 2009	5.96	1.36
April 2009	5.80	1.36
May 2009	5.75	1.41
June 2009	5.56	1.39
July 2009	5.46	1.39
August 2009	5.35	1.37
September 2009	5.32	1.37
October 2009	5.27	1.37
November 2009	5.17	1.38
December 2009	5.02	1.35
January 2010	5.19	1.39
February 2010	5.14	1.38
March 2010	5.12	1.37
April 2010	4.80	1.28
May 2010	4.84	1.26
June 2010	4.79	1.26
July 2010	4.74	1.27
August 2010	4.50	1.20
September 2010	4.46	1.19
October 2010	4.67	1.23
November 2010	4.59	1.21

Source: Staff calculations from LPS Applied Analytics and CoreLogic data.

Middle-right panel
Distressed Commercial and Residential Mortgages at Banks

Percent of RE loans
Period	Commercial	Residential
2003:Q1	0.79	1.23
2003:Q2	0.78	1.12
2003:Q3	0.70	1.05
2003:Q4	0.67	1.11
2004:Q1	0.65	1.10
2004:Q2	0.61	0.98
2004:Q3	0.58	0.97
2004:Q4	0.55	0.96
2005:Q1	0.56	0.91
2005:Q2	0.54	0.90
2005:Q3	0.51	0.93
2005:Q4	0.52	1.01
2006:Q1	0.53	0.99
2006:Q2	0.52	0.90
2006:Q3	0.53	0.93
2006:Q4	0.61	1.11
2007:Q1	0.71	1.19
2007:Q2	0.78	1.20
2007:Q3	0.88	1.41
2007:Q4	1.18	1.73
2008:Q1	1.64	1.98
2008:Q2	2.00	2.21
2008:Q3	2.23	2.68
2008:Q4	2.60	3.54
2009:Q1	3.24	4.38
2009:Q2	3.77	4.85
2009:Q3	4.12	5.42
2009:Q4	4.33	6.42
2010:Q1	4.47	7.04
2010:Q2	4.43	7.03
2010:Q3	4.21	6.98

Source: Call Reports.

Bottom-left panel
Loan Loss Rates at Commercial Banks

(Percent of loans)
	CRE	RRE	Other	Total
2010^e	2.3	2.2	3.7	2.8
Average of 2011-2012^p	3.0	2.2	3.3	2.8

Bottom-right panel
Real Estate Risks to Banks

House prices could fall more than expected.
Exams of mortgage foreclosure practices reveal deficiencies.
Estimates of mortgage putbacks are material for a few banks.

Exhibit 12 (Last)
Financial Risk from European and Municipal Debt Developments

Top-left panel
Spreads on 1- to 10-day Financial CP Issues in the U.S.

By domicile of parent
Basis points
Date	Italy	Ireland	Spain
1 September 2009	-2.91	32.17	ND
2 September 2009	-3.08	30.44	ND
3 September 2009	-3.37	31.05	ND
4 September 2009	-3.07	29.38	ND
7 September 2009	-3.06	30.32	ND
8 September 2009	-2.86	28.04	ND
9 September 2009	-2.55	24.59	ND
10 September 2009	-2.43	27.39	ND
11 September 2009	-2.83	26.37	ND
14 September 2009	-2.59	26.08	ND
15 September 2009	-2.06	25.81	ND
16 September 2009	-1.51	25.99	ND
17 September 2009	-1.24	24.32	ND
18 September 2009	-0.73	24.60	ND
21 September 2009	-0.76	25.03	ND
22 September 2009	-0.53	26.92	ND
23 September 2009	-0.70	29.34	ND
24 September 2009	-0.59	31.67	ND
25 September 2009	-0.12	29.99	ND
28 September 2009	0.30	32.26	ND
29 September 2009	0.96	35.00	ND
30 September 2009	2.38	34.90	ND
1 October 2009	2.90	34.13	ND
2 October 2009	2.33	40.17	ND
5 October 2009	1.73	37.36	ND
6 October 2009	0.14	34.05	ND
7 October 2009	-2.06	29.34	ND
8 October 2009	-2.67	29.34	ND
9 October 2009	-2.63	29.77	ND
12 October 2009	-2.62	29.87	ND
13 October 2009	-1.58	25.19	ND
14 October 2009	-0.81	23.87	ND
15 October 2009	1.03	20.79	ND
16 October 2009	0.70	16.90	ND
19 October 2009	0.50	16.12	ND
20 October 2009	0.06	15.76	ND
21 October 2009	-0.01	13.44	ND
22 October 2009	-1.23	13.91	ND
23 October 2009	0.39	13.52	ND
26 October 2009	1.04	13.77	ND
27 October 2009	1.57	13.55	ND
28 October 2009	1.52	15.07	ND
29 October 2009	1.15	15.07	ND
30 October 2009	-0.06	16.53	ND
2 November 2009	-1.11	15.35	ND
3 November 2009	-1.28	15.02	ND
4 November 2009	-0.91	15.00	ND
5 November 2009	-0.66	14.50	ND
6 November 2009	-0.90	13.25	ND
9 November 2009	-1.15	12.75	ND
10 November 2009	-1.37	12.33	ND
11 November 2009	-1.84	12.33	ND
12 November 2009	-1.79	13.00	ND
13 November 2009	-1.73	15.00	ND
16 November 2009	-1.16	16.06	ND
17 November 2009	-0.84	15.77	ND
18 November 2009	-0.46	15.42	ND
19 November 2009	-0.38	15.52	ND
20 November 2009	0.08	14.36	ND
23 November 2009	0.33	13.80	ND
24 November 2009	0.32	13.17	ND
25 November 2009	0.19	12.83	ND
26 November 2009	0.29	12.83	ND
27 November 2009	0.03	12.83	ND
30 November 2009	-0.90	12.00	ND
1 December 2009	-1.43	11.33	ND
2 December 2009	-1.52	12.67	ND
3 December 2009	-1.43	15.00	ND
4 December 2009	-1.72	15.00	ND
7 December 2009	-0.93	16.70	ND
8 December 2009	0.81	17.45	ND
9 December 2009	0.81	16.45	ND
10 December 2009	0.99	14.20	ND
11 December 2009	1.27	13.76	ND
14 December 2009	1.22	13.00	ND
15 December 2009	0.69	12.25	ND
16 December 2009	0.60	12.00	ND
17 December 2009	0.55	11.67	ND
18 December 2009	0.53	11.67	ND
21 December 2009	-0.18	11.67	ND
22 December 2009	-0.16	12.00	ND
23 December 2009	-0.05	12.00	ND
24 December 2009	0.51	14.00	ND
25 December 2009	0.83	16.00	ND
28 December 2009	2.13	16.00	ND
29 December 2009	3.16	16.00	ND
30 December 2009	3.11	16.00	ND
31 December 2009	3.36	17.83	ND
1 January 2010	3.36	17.83	ND
4 January 2010	2.13	18.75	ND
5 January 2010	3.37	16.83	ND
6 January 2010	2.94	16.41	ND
7 January 2010	1.89	13.91	ND
8 January 2010	1.41	14.18	ND
11 January 2010	1.66	14.18	ND
12 January 2010	1.05	14.57	ND
13 January 2010	1.30	15.15	ND
14 January 2010	1.44	15.48	ND
15 January 2010	1.42	14.77	ND
18 January 2010	1.97	14.77	ND
19 January 2010	1.39	14.77	ND
20 January 2010	1.27	13.16	ND
21 January 2010	1.53	12.24	ND
22 January 2010	1.36	12.81	ND
25 January 2010	0.71	12.54	ND
26 January 2010	1.05	12.54	ND
27 January 2010	1.23	13.67	ND
28 January 2010	1.03	14.00	ND
29 January 2010	1.28	12.75	ND
1 February 2010	1.30	12.25	ND
2 February 2010	1.23	11.97	ND
3 February 2010	1.20	11.22	ND
4 February 2010	1.19	10.47	ND
5 February 2010	1.19	11.15	ND
8 February 2010	1.45	11.41	ND
9 February 2010	0.04	11.69	ND
10 February 2010	0.04	12.02	ND
11 February 2010	0.16	12.31	ND
12 February 2010	0.30	12.56	ND
15 February 2010	0.51	12.95	ND
16 February 2010	0.05	12.92	ND
17 February 2010	0.02	12.78	ND
18 February 2010	-0.34	12.54	ND
19 February 2010	-1.01	12.99	ND
22 February 2010	-0.83	12.99	ND
23 February 2010	-0.63	13.82	ND
24 February 2010	-0.49	14.32	ND
25 February 2010	-0.19	14.91	ND
26 February 2010	-0.13	14.82	ND
1 March 2010	-0.14	14.85	ND
2 March 2010	-0.06	14.57	ND
3 March 2010	-0.37	13.21	ND
4 March 2010	-0.72	12.50	ND
5 March 2010	-0.85	11.30	ND
8 March 2010	-0.98	9.70	ND
9 March 2010	-0.96	10.17	ND
10 March 2010	-0.89	11.57	ND
11 March 2010	-0.72	11.84	ND
12 March 2010	-0.01	13.19	ND
15 March 2010	-0.87	12.99	ND
16 March 2010	-1.91	11.31	ND
17 March 2010	-1.90	10.55	ND
18 March 2010	-2.12	9.22	ND
19 March 2010	-2.73	8.27	ND
22 March 2010	-1.81	8.84	ND
23 March 2010	-0.42	10.11	ND
24 March 2010	-0.21	10.80	ND
25 March 2010	-0.33	11.75	ND
26 March 2010	-0.65	11.21	ND
29 March 2010	-0.28	10.93	ND
30 March 2010	-0.34	11.59	ND
31 March 2010	0.69	13.72	ND
1 April 2010	0.95	14.52	ND
2 April 2010	2.40	16.19	ND
5 April 2010	1.94	18.32	ND
6 April 2010	1.56	15.97	ND
7 April 2010	0.33	10.75	ND
8 April 2010	0.44	9.62	ND
9 April 2010	-0.45	9.46	ND
12 April 2010	-0.40	9.57	ND
13 April 2010	-0.33	9.63	ND
14 April 2010	-0.24	9.54	ND
15 April 2010	-0.22	8.41	ND
16 April 2010	-0.56	8.27	ND
19 April 2010	-0.17	7.69	ND
20 April 2010	-0.20	7.52	ND
21 April 2010	-0.15	7.67	ND
22 April 2010	0.10	8.76	ND
23 April 2010	0.88	8.95	ND
26 April 2010	0.92	9.18	ND
27 April 2010	1.15	9.84	ND
28 April 2010	1.63	10.84	ND
29 April 2010	1.84	11.59	ND
30 April 2010	2.07	12.04	ND
3 May 2010	1.95	12.22	ND
4 May 2010	1.92	11.95	ND
5 May 2010	1.82	11.55	ND
6 May 2010	2.12	12.35	ND
7 May 2010	2.21	12.50	ND
10 May 2010	2.68	14.75	ND
11 May 2010	3.19	16.33	ND
12 May 2010	3.22	18.67	ND
13 May 2010	2.97	20.00	ND
14 May 2010	2.66	17.87	ND
17 May 2010	2.30	19.21	ND
18 May 2010	1.84	19.78	ND
19 May 2010	1.89	21.56	ND
20 May 2010	2.16	21.33	ND
21 May 2010	2.18	22.81	ND
24 May 2010	3.10	24.01	ND
25 May 2010	4.10	26.56	ND
26 May 2010	4.87	26.42	ND
27 May 2010	6.27	29.07	ND
28 May 2010	7.07	30.32	ND
31 May 2010	7.32	30.42	ND
1 June 2010	6.94	28.50	ND
2 June 2010	7.66	28.50	ND
3 June 2010	7.97	30.43	ND
4 June 2010	7.37	34.93	ND
7 June 2010	7.47	34.49	ND
8 June 2010	8.87	34.13	ND
9 June 2010	9.37	35.08	22.00
10 June 2010	8.94	35.91	22.00
11 June 2010	10.91	36.26	22.00
14 June 2010	11.54	37.15	22.00
15 June 2010	11.89	38.09	22.00
16 June 2010	12.09	37.77	ND
17 June 2010	12.06	37.35	24.00
18 June 2010	11.32	37.54	24.00
21 June 2010	10.83	36.83	24.00
22 June 2010	10.33	37.09	24.00
23 June 2010	10.10	37.18	24.00
24 June 2010	10.97	37.52	28.00
25 June 2010	11.42	39.18	28.00
28 June 2010	10.51	38.31	28.00
29 June 2010	10.68	37.87	28.00
30 June 2010	10.05	40.35	28.00
1 July 2010	9.04	39.80	19.61
2 July 2010	8.30	39.40	19.61
5 July 2010	9.37	41.70	19.61
6 July 2010	8.40	42.83	17.80
7 July 2010	7.28	40.96	19.87
8 July 2010	7.02	41.45	20.54
9 July 2010	6.26	41.38	20.54
12 July 2010	6.03	41.47	20.54
13 July 2010	5.41	42.19	20.87
14 July 2010	5.84	42.29	20.53
15 July 2010	5.15	42.94	20.43
16 July 2010	4.96	40.82	20.43
19 July 2010	5.16	41.05	20.43
20 July 2010	5.46	40.70	21.10
21 July 2010	5.57	40.49	21.08
22 July 2010	5.90	41.45	21.39
23 July 2010	6.40	44.69	20.29
26 July 2010	6.54	46.09	19.44
27 July 2010	6.23	45.63	18.84
28 July 2010	6.19	46.00	18.78
29 July 2010	5.89	45.71	18.36
30 July 2010	5.15	44.82	18.70
2 August 2010	4.56	43.71	18.20
3 August 2010	3.71	43.85	18.54
4 August 2010	2.79	44.38	17.38
5 August 2010	2.17	43.53	16.93
6 August 2010	1.78	43.23	16.93
9 August 2010	1.20	41.27	17.91
10 August 2010	1.10	42.36	14.78
11 August 2010	1.05	42.25	11.34
12 August 2010	1.19	42.56	11.55
13 August 2010	1.49	43.19	11.55
16 August 2010	1.98	46.00	11.55
17 August 2010	2.36	44.08	11.89
18 August 2010	2.29	42.59	11.50
19 August 2010	2.33	43.30	10.50
20 August 2010	2.63	44.19	10.50
23 August 2010	2.52	43.38	10.50
24 August 2010	2.49	44.40	10.65
25 August 2010	2.39	46.09	10.42
26 August 2010	1.95	45.11	9.92
27 August 2010	1.16	44.71	9.19
30 August 2010	0.71	45.15	9.19
31 August 2010	0.42	43.56	8.71
1 September 2010	0.43	41.53	9.67
2 September 2010	0.81	39.91	9.17
3 September 2010	1.30	40.16	10.25
6 September 2010	1.48	40.16	10.25
7 September 2010	2.00	36.71	9.75
8 September 2010	2.27	37.25	9.75
9 September 2010	2.50	39.79	10.25
10 September 2010	2.37	33.67	10.25
13 September 2010	2.31	35.71	10.25
14 September 2010	2.13	39.08	10.25
15 September 2010	1.76	38.33	8.13
16 September 2010	1.35	37.17	6.80
17 September 2010	1.51	41.39	6.80
20 September 2010	1.64	36.96	6.80
21 September 2010	1.91	35.72	7.13
22 September 2010	2.42	36.43	8.75
23 September 2010	3.12	38.18	10.75
24 September 2010	2.62	34.04	10.75
27 September 2010	2.49	33.52	10.75
28 September 2010	2.55	30.86	10.75
29 September 2010	3.02	27.74	9.67
30 September 2010	3.47	23.74	8.17
1 October 2010	3.55	24.36	7.87
4 October 2010	3.66	25.32	7.87
5 October 2010	3.44	25.81	7.87
6 October 2010	2.98	27.02	7.87
7 October 2010	1.93	27.16	7.75
8 October 2010	2.31	27.35	7.63
11 October 2010	2.26	27.10	7.63
12 October 2010	2.18	32.78	7.63
13 October 2010	1.41	31.47	7.13
14 October 2010	1.22	29.96	6.72
15 October 2010	0.30	28.78	6.80
18 October 2010	0.41	28.78	6.80
19 October 2010	0.17	22.53	6.46
20 October 2010	0.72	25.54	6.79
21 October 2010	0.72	25.71	6.66
22 October 2010	1.22	27.95	6.66
25 October 2010	1.07	27.95	6.66
26 October 2010	0.99	35.95	6.67
27 October 2010	0.67	32.31	6.33
28 October 2010	0.80	33.15	6.17
29 October 2010	0.84	36.86	5.50
1 November 2010	0.77	35.09	5.50
2 November 2010	0.72	32.11	5.25
3 November 2010	0.70	33.16	5.17
4 November 2010	0.85	33.19	4.57
5 November 2010	0.72	26.69	5.10
8 November 2010	0.87	26.75	4.77
9 November 2010	1.02	26.75	4.44
10 November 2010	1.18	27.81	5.21
11 November 2010	1.01	28.08	5.37
12 November 2010	0.84	30.04	5.66
15 November 2010	0.80	29.62	6.17
16 November 2010	1.08	29.62	6.94
17 November 2010	1.18	27.44	6.61
18 November 2010	1.53	31.62	6.58
19 November 2010	1.96	35.67	6.58
22 November 2010	2.32	36.67	6.58
23 November 2010	2.26	34.50	8.75
24 November 2010	2.41	34.60	10.61
25 November 2010	2.27	33.25	11.98
26 November 2010	2.39	31.00	13.20
29 November 2010	2.36	31.50	13.20
30 November 2010	2.24	34.50	12.04
1 December 2010	2.27	34.50	11.57
2 December 2010	2.39	34.67	10.38
3 December 2010	2.58	35.00	9.33
6 December 2010	2.77	35.40	9.33
7 December 2010	3.11	36.20	9.80
8 December 2010	3.16	36.80	9.05
9 December 2010	3.10	36.80	9.80
10 December 2010	2.93	36.60	10.74
13 December 2010	2.74	36.00	10.74
14 December 2010	3.02	34.80	10.50
15 December 2010	3.25	33.73	11.00
16 December 2010	3.58	33.18	8.00
17 December 2010	3.93	32.73	8.00
20 December 2010	4.47	32.82	8.00
21 December 2010	4.47	ND	8.00
22 December 2010	4.63	ND	8.00
23 December 2010	5.65	ND	14.00
24 December 2010	8.27	ND	14.00
27 December 2010	8.36	ND	14.00
28 December 2010	8.75	ND	14.00
29 December 2010	9.96	ND	14.00
30 December 2010	10.31	ND	12.00
31 December 2010	7.93	ND	12.00
3 January 2011	7.12	ND	12.00
4 January 2011	6.27	ND	11.00
5 January 2011	4.61	ND	11.00
6 January 2011	4.33	ND	10.50
7 January 2011	3.99	ND	10.50
10 January 2011	4.27	ND	10.67
11 January 2011	4.52	ND	11.00
12 January 2011	4.43	ND	11.00
13 January 2011	4.01	ND	11.50
14 January 2011	5.10	ND	11.67
17 January 2011	5.70	ND	12.00
18 January 2011	5.76	ND	11.00
19 January 2011	6.64	ND	11.00
20 January 2011	6.79	ND	10.67
21 January 2011	6.58	ND	10.00
24 January 2011	5.75	ND	11.00

* 5-day moving average. Spread to AA nonfinancial unsecured rate.

Top-right panel
Peripheral Europe: Short-term Debt Outstanding and U.S. MMF Holdings

Biweekly

MMF unsecured debt holdings
Period	Billions of dollars
19 May 2010	94.06
2 June 2010	76.62
16 June 2010	70.57
30 June 2010	77.28
14 July 2010	73.61
28 July 2010	71.70
11 August 2010	89.68
25 August 2010	86.85
8 September 2010	87.83
22 September 2010	82.90
6 October 2010	83.09
20 October 2010	78.56
3 November 2010	76.78
17 November 2010	64.52
1 December 2010	54.17
15 December 2010	38.22
29 December 2010	38.99
12 January 2011	38.04

Outstanding CP + Negotiable CDs
Period	Billions of dollars
16 January 2010	168.69
13 February 2010	173.51
13 March 2010	169.39
27 March 2010	164.65
10 April 2010	162.69
24 April 2010	157.94
8 May 2010	145.73
22 May 2010	128.15
19 June 2010	97.75
3 July 2010	98.17
31 July 2010	91.99
14 August 2010	107.71
28 August 2010	122.99
25 September 2010	123.90
9 October 2010	120.32
6 November 2010	114.81
1 January 2011	70.63
15 January 2011	66.85

Source: DTCC and Investment Company Institute.

Middle-left panel
U.S. MMF European Exposures*

Biweekly
Percent of MMF assets
Period	Italy	Ireland	Spain	Other Europe
19 May 2010	2.14	0.35	3.34	49.53
2 June 2010	1.67	0.39	2.72	49.12
16 June 2010	1.48	0.43	2.57	51.48
30 June 2010	1.74	0.49	2.67	50.03
14 July 2010	1.53	0.50	2.58	54.56
28 July 2010	1.51	0.50	2.45	56.22
11 August 2010	2.20	0.48	2.85	56.16
25 August 2010	2.12	0.48	2.73	57.40
8 September 2010	2.30	0.22	2.80	56.95
22 September 2010	2.06	0.20	2.81	56.43
6 October 2010	2.13	0.04	2.90	56.48
20 October 2010	1.89	0.00	2.92	55.35
3 November 2010	1.80	0.00	2.88	56.44
17 November 2010	1.70	0.00	2.24	58.12
1 December 2010	1.51	0.00	1.78	57.37
15 December 2010	1.21	0.00	1.14	56.44
29 December 2010	1.24	0.00	1.15	55.91
12 January 2011	1.18	0.00	1.15	54.11

* Unsecured debt, ABCP, and repurchase agreements. Return to text

Source: Investment Company Institute.

Middle-right panel
Banking System Credit Exposure to Peripheral Europe

June 2010, billions of dollars
	Greece, Portugal, Ireland	Spain	Total as percent of Tier 1 Capital
France	142	165	105
Germany	213	182	136
United States	67	52	15

Source: BIS consolidated banking statistics.

Bottom-left panel
Selected States CDS Five-year Spreads

Weekly
Percent
Period	California	Illinois	Texas	MCDX
11 January 2008	0.46	0.24	0.21	ND
18 January 2008	0.58	0.23	0.24	ND
25 January 2008	0.55	0.21	0.22	ND
1 February 2008	0.55	0.18	0.21	ND
8 February 2008	0.56	0.19	0.19	ND
15 February 2008	0.61	0.18	0.20	ND
22 February 2008	0.64	0.20	0.19	ND
29 February 2008	0.75	0.31	0.28	ND
7 March 2008	0.79	0.32	0.29	ND
14 March 2008	0.82	0.33	0.31	ND
21 March 2008	0.81	0.37	0.25	ND
28 March 2008	0.71	0.33	0.25	ND
4 April 2008	0.53	0.23	0.19	ND
11 April 2008	0.58	0.22	0.19	ND
18 April 2008	0.58	0.20	0.19	ND
25 April 2008	0.58	0.22	0.19	ND
2 May 2008	0.55	0.21	0.19	ND
9 May 2008	0.58	0.21	0.19	0.44
16 May 2008	0.64	0.21	0.19	0.39
23 May 2008	0.66	0.21	0.19	0.45
30 May 2008	0.67	0.21	0.19	0.46
6 June 2008	0.66	0.24	0.19	0.47
13 June 2008	0.66	0.24	0.19	0.48
20 June 2008	0.74	0.23	0.19	0.59
27 June 2008	0.78	0.23	0.19	0.67
4 July 2008	0.84	0.27	0.20	ND
11 July 2008	0.87	0.29	0.22	0.71
18 July 2008	0.83	0.29	0.20	0.72
25 July 2008	0.86	0.29	0.20	0.75
1 August 2008	0.91	0.32	0.21	0.76
8 August 2008	0.93	0.32	0.21	0.75
15 August 2008	0.88	0.34	0.20	0.75
22 August 2008	0.93	0.36	0.25	0.81
29 August 2008	0.98	0.39	0.24	0.85
5 September 2008	0.96	0.38	0.23	0.84
12 September 2008	0.95	0.42	0.25	0.85
19 September 2008	1.00	0.54	0.46	0.89
26 September 2008	1.01	0.58	0.43	0.91
3 October 2008	1.57	0.71	0.54	1.10
10 October 2008	1.86	0.89	0.65	1.35
17 October 2008	1.69	0.90	0.76	1.30
24 October 2008	1.77	1.03	0.79	1.47
31 October 2008	1.90	1.16	0.94	1.53
7 November 2008	1.66	0.97	0.82	1.45
14 November 2008	1.71	1.14	0.85	1.50
21 November 2008	2.13	1.32	1.13	1.83
28 November 2008	2.14	1.32	1.10	1.75
5 December 2008	3.75	2.09	1.71	2.95
12 December 2008	4.95	2.70	2.04	3.43
19 December 2008	4.25	2.48	1.58	2.75
26 December 2008	4.23	2.42	1.58	2.73
2 January 2009	4.23	2.47	1.68	2.60
9 January 2009	4.73	2.14	1.63	2.23
16 January 2009	4.48	2.12	1.55	2.45
23 January 2009	4.00	2.24	1.59	2.54
30 January 2009	3.71	1.95	1.50	1.38
6 February 2009	3.43	1.97	1.47	ND
13 February 2009	3.69	1.87	1.65	2.18
20 February 2009	3.29	1.92	1.60	2.51
27 February 2009	3.65	2.00	1.75	ND
6 March 2009	3.58	2.15	1.75	2.90
13 March 2009	3.52	2.45	1.75	2.65
20 March 2009	3.45	2.41	1.73	2.37
27 March 2009	3.38	2.28	1.62	2.26
3 April 2009	3.41	2.30	1.69	2.25
10 April 2009	3.25	2.30	1.63	ND
17 April 2009	2.93	ND	1.51	1.92
24 April 2009	2.80	2.00	1.42	1.95
1 May 2009	2.73	1.93	1.40	1.93
8 May 2009	2.48	1.70	1.30	1.63
15 May 2009	2.64	1.78	1.34	1.84
22 May 2009	2.54	1.78	1.28	1.78
29 May 2009	2.50	1.76	1.27	1.94
5 June 2009	2.64	1.75	1.20	1.67
12 June 2009	2.99	1.86	1.28	1.79
19 June 2009	3.68	1.95	1.34	1.99
26 June 2009	3.50	1.93	1.36	2.15
3 July 2009	3.50	1.80	1.37	ND
10 July 2009	3.50	1.94	1.32	2.07
17 July 2009	3.41	2.03	1.36	1.88
24 July 2009	2.98	1.95	1.29	1.65
31 July 2009	2.81	1.99	1.23	ND
7 August 2009	2.75	1.89	1.19	1.44
14 August 2009	2.73	1.84	1.14	1.43
21 August 2009	2.75	1.85	1.03	1.40
28 August 2009	2.59	1.68	1.05	1.22
4 September 2009	2.46	1.68	1.00	1.28
11 September 2009	2.25	1.65	0.99	1.13
18 September 2009	1.96	1.03	0.84	0.98
25 September 2009	1.76	0.90	0.75	0.93
2 October 2009	1.71	0.82	0.75	0.93
9 October 2009	1.86	0.84	0.65	0.88
16 October 2009	1.83	0.84	0.65	0.89
23 October 2009	1.74	0.69	0.62	0.90
30 October 2009	1.88	0.90	0.64	ND
6 November 2009	1.90	0.90	0.64	1.13
13 November 2009	1.92	0.97	0.75	1.29
20 November 2009	2.19	1.20	0.66	1.49
27 November 2009	2.54	1.30	0.86	1.61
4 December 2009	2.59	1.29	0.85	1.39
11 December 2009	2.62	1.45	0.81	1.43
18 December 2009	2.61	1.58	0.81	1.40
25 December 2009	2.72	1.68	0.84	ND
1 January 2010	2.63	1.49	0.68	ND
8 January 2010	2.65	1.52	0.74	1.33
15 January 2010	2.94	1.61	0.70	1.55
22 January 2010	3.14	1.80	0.76	1.65
29 January 2010	3.49	2.19	0.82	1.72
5 February 2010	3.65	2.33	0.87	1.77
12 February 2010	3.22	2.20	0.81	1.54
19 February 2010	3.20	2.21	0.76	1.58
26 February 2010	3.15	2.28	0.78	1.65
5 March 2010	3.03	2.03	0.75	1.50
12 March 2010	2.69	1.88	0.67	1.31
19 March 2010	2.35	1.87	0.65	1.43
26 March 2010	2.00	1.70	0.62	1.32
2 April 2010	1.98	1.63	0.57	1.29
9 April 2010	1.88	1.71	0.55	ND
16 April 2010	1.76	1.58	0.49	1.19
23 April 2010	1.70	1.53	0.50	1.20
30 April 2010	1.82	1.53	0.38	1.26
7 May 2010	2.58	1.84	0.52	1.61
14 May 2010	2.58	2.11	0.55	1.65
21 May 2010	2.60	2.07	0.54	1.67
28 May 2010	2.60	2.09	0.62	1.63
4 June 2010	2.84	2.38	0.74	1.86
11 June 2010	2.86	2.66	0.81	2.08
18 June 2010	2.91	3.12	0.84	2.11
25 June 2010	3.38	3.51	1.05	2.41
2 July 2010	3.35	3.40	0.89	2.53
9 July 2010	3.06	3.12	0.84	2.28
16 July 2010	2.80	3.00	0.81	2.22
23 July 2010	2.71	2.84	0.79	2.14
30 July 2010	2.63	2.68	0.80	2.04
6 August 2010	2.65	2.69	0.78	2.08
13 August 2010	2.75	2.88	0.71	2.14
20 August 2010	2.68	2.78	0.74	2.21
27 August 2010	2.71	2.91	0.75	ND
3 September 2010	2.47	2.84	0.75	2.18
10 September 2010	2.57	2.96	0.75	2.28
17 September 2010	2.61	2.72	0.76	2.27
24 September 2010	2.41	2.63	0.71	2.15
1 October 2010	2.60	2.70	0.71	2.18
8 October 2010	2.43	2.44	0.68	2.02
15 October 2010	2.52	2.41	0.62	2.03
22 October 2010	2.53	2.44	0.66	2.03
29 October 2010	2.39	2.43	0.64	1.88
5 November 2010	2.31	2.31	0.57	1.62
12 November 2010	2.52	2.47	0.58	ND
19 November 2010	2.58	2.48	0.60	1.87
26 November 2010	2.56	2.54	0.62	1.86
3 December 2010	2.47	2.45	0.62	1.78
10 December 2010	2.60	2.64	0.66	2.13
17 December 2010	2.63	2.85	0.82	1.99
24 December 2010	2.74	3.10	0.76	ND
31 December 2010	2.73	3.10	0.81	2.13
7 January 2011	2.76	3.23	0.96	2.30
14 January 2011	2.65	2.83	0.95	2.22
21 January 2011	2.52	2.69	0.91	2.02

Bottom-right panel
Risks

State and local governments pay higher rates.
Could lose access to VRDOs.
- VRDOs are long-term bonds with interest rates that reset frequently.
Bank credit losses from loans and securities likely modest.
Balance sheets pressured if investors putback VRDOs.

Appendix 4: Materials used by Ms. Zickler

Material for Briefing on
FOMC Participants' Economic Projections

Joyce Zickler
January 25, 2011

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

Exhibit 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Actual values for years 2006 through 2010.

Change in real GDP
Percent
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Longer run
Actual	2.4	2.3	-2.8	0.2	2.9	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	4.2	4.5	5.0	3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	3.9	4.4	4.6	2.8
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	3.4	3.5	3.7	2.5
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	3.2	3.4	3.0	2.4

Unemployment rate
Percent
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Longer run
Actual	4.5	4.8	6.9	10.0	9.6	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	9.0	8.4	7.9	6.2
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	9.0	8.1	7.2	6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	8.8	7.6	6.8	5.0
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	8.4	7.2	6.0	5.0

PCE inflation
Percent
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Longer run
Actual	1.9	3.5	1.7	1.5	1.2	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.0	2.2	2.0	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.7	1.9	2.0	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.3	1.0	1.2	1.6
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.0	0.7	0.6	1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Actual	2.3	2.4	2.0	1.7	0.8	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	2.0	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.3	1.5	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.0	1.0	1.2
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	0.7	0.6	0.6

[In Exhibit 1, emphasis (italic) indicates Tealbook forecast values for 2010.]

Exhibit 2. Economic projections for 2011-2013 and over the longer run (percent)

Change in real GDP
	2011	2012	2013	Longer run
Central Tendency	3.4 to 3.9	3.5 to 4.4	3.7 to 4.6	2.5 to 2.8
November projections	3.0 to 3.6	3.6 to 4.5	3.5 to 4.6	2.5 to 2.8
Range	3.2 to 4.2	3.4 to 4.5	3.0 to 5.0	2.4 to 3.0
November projections	2.5 to 4.0	2.6 to 4.7	3.0 to 5.0	2.4 to 3.0
Memo: Tealbook	3.8	4.4	4.6	3.0
November Tealbook	3.6	4.7	4.7	2.8

Unemployment rate
	2011	2012	2013	Longer run
Central Tendency	8.8 to 9.0	7.6 to 8.1	6.8 to 7.2	5.0 to 6.0
November projections	8.9 to 9.1	7.7 to 8.2	6.9 to 7.4	5.0 to 6.0
Range	8.4 to 9.0	7.2 to 8.4	6.0 to 7.9	5.0 to 6.2
November projections	8.2 to 9.3	7.0 to 8.7	5.9 to 7.9	5.0 to 6.3
Memo: Tealbook	8.9	7.8	7.0	5.2
November Tealbook	9.0	7.9	7.1	5.2

PCE inflation
	2011	2012	2013	Longer run
Central Tendency	1.3 to 1.7	1.0 to 1.9	1.2 to 2.0	1.6 to 2.0
November projections	1.1 to 1.7	1.1 to 1.8	1.2 to 2.0	1.6 to 2.0
Range	1.0 to 2.0	0.7 to 2.2	0.6 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0
November projections	0.9 to 2.2	0.6 to 2.2	0.4 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0
Memo: Tealbook	1.3	1.0	1.2	2.0
November Tealbook	1.1	1.1	1.2	2.0

Core PCE inflation
	2011	2012	2013
Central Tendency	1.0 to 1.3	1.0 to 1.5	1.2 to 2.0
November projections	0.9 to 1.6	1.0 to 1.6	1.1 to 2.0
Range	0.7 to 1.8	0.6 to 2.0	0.6 to 2.0
November projections	0.7 to 2.0	0.6 to 2.0	0.5 to 2.0
Memo: Tealbook	1.0	1.0	1.2
November Tealbook	1.0	1.0	1.2

Note: The changes in real GDP and inflation are measured Q4/Q4

Exhibit 3. Risks and uncertainty in economic projections

Top-left panel
Uncertainty about GDP growth

Number of participants
	Lower	Similar	Higher
January projections	1	3	14
November projections	0	2	16

Top-right panel
Risks to GDP growth

Number of participants
	Downside	Balanced	Upside
January projections	1	14	3
November projections	7	10	1

Bottom-left panel
Uncertainty about PCE inflation

Number of participants
	Lower	Similar	Higher
January projections	1	3	14
November projections	1	3	14

Bottom-right panel
Risks to PCE inflation

Number of participants
	Downside	Balanced	Upside
January projections	2	13	3
November projections	5	11	2

Appendix 5: Materials used by Mr. Stockton

The Market for New Single-Family Homes

Top panel

	2010	Q2	Q3	Q4	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.
	2010	2010			2010
Sales¹
Total	321	335	291	296	280	280	329
Previous			288		275	290
Percent Change	-14.4	-6.9	-13.1	1.7	-11.7	.0	17.5
By region
Northeast	31	33	31	23	30	20	19
Midwest	44	47	42	34	40	31	32
South	173	180	159	165	161	165	168
West	73	76	59	74	49	64	110
Inventories
New homes for sale²	190	211	202	190	200	195	190
Months' supply³	8.0	7.9	8.5	8.0	8.6	8.4	6.9
Prices
Mean (thousands of dollars)⁴	271.6	264.2	253.8	n.a.	253.4	278.6	293.7
Year-to-year percent change⁵	.3	-1.9	-7.6	n.a.	-5.2	3.4	4.3
One-period percent change (annual rate for quarters, monthly rate for months)	.3	-20.9	-14.9	n.a.	-5.8	9.9	5.4
Constant-quality price index⁶
Year-to-year percent change⁵	-.4	-1.1	-.1	-1.2	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
One-period percent change (annual rate for quarters)	-.4	-9.7	.7	3.8	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

1. Thousands of units, s.a.a.r., except where noted. Percent change is from previous comparable period, not at an annual rate. Return to table

2. Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted, end of period stock. Return to table

3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of s.a. inventories to s.a. sales. Quarterly and annual values are averages of monthly values. Return to table

4. Quarterly and annual values of mean prices are equal to a weighted average of monthly data; the weights are based on the response rate to the survey in each month. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table

5. Year-to-year percent changes are from the year-earlier comparable period. Return to table

6. Based on characteristics of new homes sold in 2005. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table

s.a.a.r. Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

s.a. Seasonally adjusted.

n.a. Not available.

Source: Census Bureau.

Bottom-left panel
New Home Sales

Data plotted as a curve. The period covered is from January 1997 through December 2010, and the data are in millions of units. As shown in the figure, new home sales were relatively flat from 1999 through 2002, at which point they increased until their peak in mid-2005. New home sales fell drastically from 2006 through about 2008, and have remained more or less flat at a low level since the end of 2008. The most recent month of data (December 2010) shows a 17.5% increase in new home sales from the previous month (November 2010).

Source: Census Bureau.

Bottom-right panel
Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply

Data plotted as curves. The period covered is from January 2001 through December 2010. The chart shows 2 curves, plotted on different scales. The left scale shows inventories of new homes in thousands of units. Inventories rose from the beginning of 2001 to mid-2006, and have fallen drastically since then. The most recent month of data (December 2010) is the lowest level of inventories during the time period shown. The right scale shows months' supply of new homes, and the units are number of months. Months' supply was relatively flat from 2001 through mid-2005 at a level of about 4 months. From there it increased to its peak of about 11 months at the end of 2008. The months' supply fell during 2009 and has jumped around a little since, but remains elevated compared to its level in the early 2000s.

Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales.

Source: Census Bureau.

Appendix 6: Materials used by Mr. English

Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives

Bill English
January 26, 2011

Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)

December FOMC Statement

1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.
3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

[Note: In the January FOMC Statement Alternatives, emphasis (strike-through) indicates strike-through text in the original document, and strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]

January FOMC Statement--Alternative A

1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year in recent quarters, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to been trending downward.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been remains disappointingly slow and there are still significant downside risks to the economic outlook.
3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities. as announced in November. Moreover, in light of incoming information, the Committee now intends to increase its holdings of securities by a total of $800 billion--$200 billion more than announced in November--by purchasing longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of about $75 billion per month through the third quarter of 2011. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to currently anticipates that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period at least through mid-2012.
5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

January FOMC Statement--Alternative B

1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending is increasing at a moderate pace picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable, but and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in the context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.
3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee will is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month [, which, given the quantity of purchases thus far, implies a pace of about $80 billion per month]. [The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Committee will continued its practice of regularly reviewing the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information, and will it remains prepared to adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.]
4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

January FOMC Statement--Alternative C

1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending is increasing at a moderate pace has picked up but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. and business investment is rising. However, employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, Progress toward the Committee's objectives has been disappointingly slow, but there are some indications that the economic recovery is strengthening.
3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities. as announced in November. However, in light of incoming information, the Committee now intends to increase its holdings of securities by a total of $400 billion--$200 billion less than announced in November--by purchasing longerterm Treasury securities at a pace of about $40 billion per month through the second quarter of 2011. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels [of 2 percent or a bit less, which the Committee judges to be] consistent with its mandate.

January FOMC Statement--Alternative D

1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing. though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Growth in household spending is increasing at a moderate pace has picked up but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. and business investment is rising. Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward. commodity prices have risen noticeably.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.
2. To promote a stronger pace of support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant low levels for the federal funds rate for some time. However, the Committee judges that a further expansion of its securities holdings is not necessary to support a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided today to continue expanding discontinue the asset purchase program it its holdings of securities as announced in November. For the time being, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
3. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
3. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate promote maximum employment and price stability.

[Note: In the January 2011 FOMC Directive Alternatives, emphasis (strike-through) indicates strike-through text in the original document, and strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]

January 2011 FOMC Directive -- Alternative A

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longer-term Treasury securities in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to approximately $2.6 $2.8 trillion by the end of June September 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

January 2011 FOMC Directive -- Alternative B

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longer-term Treasury securities in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to approximately $2.6 trillion by the end of June 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

January 2011 FOMC Directive -- Alternative C

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longer-term Treasury securities in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to approximately $2.6 $2.4 trillion by the end of June 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

January 2011 FOMC Directive -- Alternative D

The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longer-term Treasury securities in order to increase maintain the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to at approximately $2.6 $2.2 trillion by the end of June 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.

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Last update: January 12, 2017

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Meeting of the Federal Open Market CommitteeJanuary 25-26, 2011 Presentation Materials

Appendix 1: Materials used by Messrs. Fallick and Faberman, and Ms. Şahin

Exhibit 1Causes for Concern

Top panelCategories of Unemployment

Middle-left panelPayroll Employment

Middle-right panelDispersion in Major Industry Employment Change

Bottom-left panelPercent of Mortgages with Negative Equity

Bottom-right panelPermanent Job Losers

Exhibit 2The Beveridge Curve

Top panelUsing Staff Composite Help Wanted Index

Bottom-left panelUsing JOLTS Job Openings

Bottom-right panelIssues in Interpretation

Exhibit 3Models Informing Tealbook Assumptions

Top-left panelJob Matching

Top-right panelContribution of Matching Efficiency to the Unemployment Rate

Middle-left panelAn Unobserved Components Model

Middle-right panelModel NAIRU

Bottom-left panelTealbook NAIRU

Bottom-right panelDuration of Unemployment

Exhibit 4Theoretical Motivation

Top panelThe Matching Function

Middle panelMatching Efficiency

Bottom panelShifts and Movements in the Beveridge Curve

Beveridge Curve

Things that shift the Beveridge curve

Things that affect measured matching efficiency

Exhibit 5Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Unemployment Duration by Reason for Unemployment

Top-left panel

Top-right panelExtended UI Benefits

Unemployment Transition Rates by Unemployment Duration

Bottom-left panelTransitions from Unemployment to Employment

Bottom-right panelTransitions from Unemployment to Out of the Labor Force

Exhibit 6Employer Recruiting Intensity

Recruiting Intensity per Vacancy over Time

Top-left panel

Top-right panelRecruiting Intensity

Bottom panelActual vs. Counterfactual Unemployment Rate, Holding Recruiting Intensity Constant

Exhibit 7General Measures of Mismatch

Top panelUnemployment Outflow Rates by Industry

Bottom panelUnemployment Rate of Recent College Graduates

Exhibit 8Skill Mismatch

Top-left panelMismatch Indices by Industry

Top-right panelActual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Industry)

Bottom-left panelMismatch Indices by Occupation

Bottom-right panelActual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Occupation)

Exhibit 9House Lock and Geographic Mismatch

Top panelRates of Migration between States

Bottom panelAverage Unemployment Duration by 12-Month Change in State-Level House Price

Exhibit 10Long-term Unemployment and Hysteresis

Top panelUnemployment-to-Employment Outflow Rates by Unemployment Duration

Bottom panelUnemployment Inflow and Outflow Rates by OECD Countries

Exhibit 11Summary

Exhibit 12 - Last ExhibitBoard and Reserve Bank Staff Estimates

Top panel

Bottom-left panelDistribution of Estimates

Bottom-right panelEstimated Increase

Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Sack

Exhibit 1

Top-left panel(1)

Top-right panel(2)

Middle-left panel(3)

Middle-right panel(4)

Bottom-left panel(5)

Bottom-right panel(6)

Exhibit 2

Top-left panel(7)

Top-right panel(8)

Middle-left panel(9)

Middle-right panel(10)

Bottom-left panel(11)

Bottom-right panel(12)

Exhibit 3

Top-left panel(13)

Top-right panel(14)

Middle-left panel(15)

Middle-right panel(16)

Bottom-left panel(17)

Bottom-right panel(18)

Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
January 25-26, 2011 Presentation Materials

Exhibit 1
Causes for Concern

Top panel
Categories of Unemployment

Middle-left panel
Payroll Employment

Middle-right panel
Dispersion in Major Industry Employment Change

Bottom-left panel
Percent of Mortgages with Negative Equity

Bottom-right panel
Permanent Job Losers

Exhibit 2
The Beveridge Curve

Top panel
Using Staff Composite Help Wanted Index

Bottom-left panel
Using JOLTS Job Openings

Bottom-right panel
Issues in Interpretation

Exhibit 3
Models Informing Tealbook Assumptions

Top-left panel
Job Matching

Top-right panel
Contribution of Matching Efficiency to the Unemployment Rate

Middle-left panel
An Unobserved Components Model

Middle-right panel
Model NAIRU

Bottom-left panel
Tealbook NAIRU

Bottom-right panel
Duration of Unemployment

Exhibit 4
Theoretical Motivation

Top panel
The Matching Function

Middle panel
Matching Efficiency

Bottom panel
Shifts and Movements in the Beveridge Curve

Exhibit 5
Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Top-right panel
Extended UI Benefits

Bottom-left panel
Transitions from Unemployment to Employment

Bottom-right panel
Transitions from Unemployment to Out of the Labor Force

Exhibit 6
Employer Recruiting Intensity

Top-right panel
Recruiting Intensity

Bottom panel
Actual vs. Counterfactual Unemployment Rate, Holding Recruiting Intensity Constant

Exhibit 7
General Measures of Mismatch

Top panel
Unemployment Outflow Rates by Industry

Bottom panel
Unemployment Rate of Recent College Graduates

Exhibit 8
Skill Mismatch

Top-left panel
Mismatch Indices by Industry

Top-right panel
Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Industry)

Bottom-left panel
Mismatch Indices by Occupation

Bottom-right panel
Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Occupation)

Exhibit 9
House Lock and Geographic Mismatch

Top panel
Rates of Migration between States

Bottom panel
Average Unemployment Duration by 12-Month Change in State-Level House Price

Exhibit 10
Long-term Unemployment and Hysteresis

Top panel
Unemployment-to-Employment Outflow Rates by Unemployment Duration

Bottom panel
Unemployment Inflow and Outflow Rates by OECD Countries

Exhibit 11
Summary

Exhibit 12 - Last Exhibit
Board and Reserve Bank Staff Estimates

Bottom-left panel
Distribution of Estimates

Bottom-right panel
Estimated Increase

Top-left panel
(1)

Top-right panel
(2)

Middle-left panel
(3)

Middle-right panel
(4)

Bottom-left panel
(5)

Bottom-right panel
(6)

Top-left panel
(7)

Top-right panel
(8)

Middle-left panel
(9)

Middle-right panel
(10)

Bottom-left panel
(11)

Bottom-right panel
(12)

Top-left panel
(13)

Top-right panel
(14)

Middle-left panel
(15)

Middle-right panel
(16)

Bottom-left panel
(17)

Bottom-right panel
(18)

Top-left panel
(19)

Top-right panel
(20)

Middle-left panel
(21)

Middle-right panel
(22)

Bottom-left panel
(23)

Bottom-right panel
(24)

Exhibit 1
Recent Nonfinancial Indicators

Top-left panel
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Top-right panel
Manufacturing IP

Middle-left panel
Single-family Housing Starts and Sales

Middle-right panel
Change in Private Payroll Employment

Bottom-left panel
Near-term GDP Projection

Bottom-right panel
Consumer Prices

Exhibit 2
Medium-term Outlook for Real Activity and Inflation

Top-left panel
Real GDP