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Summary of Economic Projections
Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections

November 1-2, 2011 Tables and Charts

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Table 1
Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, November 2011

Percent
Variable Central tendency1 Range2
2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Change in real GDP 1.6 to 1.7 2.5 to 2.9 3.0 to 3.5 3.0 to 3.9 2.4 to 2.7 1.6 to 1.8 2.3 to 3.5 2.7 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.5 2.2 to 3.0
June projection 2.7 to 2.9 3.3 to 3.7 3.5 to 4.2 n/a to n/a 2.5 to 2.8 2.5 to 3.0 2.2 to 4.0 3.0 to 4.5 n/a to n/a 2.4 to 3.0
Unemployment rate 9.0 to 9.1 8.5 to 8.7 7.8 to 8.2 6.8 to 7.7 5.2 to 6.0 8.9 to 9.1 8.1 to 8.9 7.5 to 8.4 6.5 to 8.0 5.0 to 6.0
June projection 8.6 to 8.9 7.8 to 8.2 7.0 to 7.5 n/a to n/a 5.2 to 5.6 8.4 to 9.1 7.5 to 8.7 6.5 to 8.3 n/a to n/a 5.0 to 6.0
PCE inflation 2.7 to 2.9 1.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 2.5 to 3.3 1.4 to 2.8 1.4 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.4 1.5 to 2.0
June projection 2.3 to 2.5 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 n/a to n/a 1.7 to 2.0 2.1 to 3.5 1.2 to 2.8 1.3 to 2.5 n/a to n/a 1.5 to 2.0
Core PCE inflation3 1.8 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.0   1.7 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.1 1.4 to 2.2  
June projection 1.5 to 1.8 1.4 to 2.0 1.4 to 2.0 n/a to n/a   1.5 to 2.3 1.2 to 2.5 1.3 to 2.5 n/a to n/a  

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The June projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 21-22, 2011.

1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.  Return to table

2. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.  Return to table

3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.  Return to table



Table 1a
Economic Projections for the First Half of 2011*
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges
  Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP 0.8 to 0.8 0.8 to 0.8
PCE Inflation 3.6 to 3.6 3.6 to 3.6
Core PCE Inflation 1.9 to 1.9 1.9 to 2.0
Participants' Projections
Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 0.8 3.6 1.9
2 0.8 3.6 1.9
3 0.8 3.6 1.9
4 0.8 3.6 1.9
5 0.8 3.6 1.9
6 0.8 3.6 1.9
7 0.8 3.6 1.9
8 0.8 3.6 1.9
9 0.8 3.6 2.0
10 0.8 3.6 1.9
11 0.8 3.6 1.9
12 0.8 3.6 1.9
13 0.8 3.6 1.9
14 0.8 3.6 1.9
15 0.8 3.6 1.9
16 0.8 3.6 1.9
17 0.8 3.6 1.9

* Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text



Table 1b
Economic Projections for the Second Half of 2011*
(in percent)

Central Tendencies and Ranges
Central Tendency Range
Change in Real GDP 2.4 to 2.6 2.4 to 2.8
PCE Inflation 1.8 to 2.2 1.4 to 3.0
Core PCE Inflation 1.7 to 1.9 1.5 to 2.1
Participants' Projections
Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
1 2.6 1.6 1.9
2 2.6 2.2 1.9
3 2.6 2.2 1.9
4 2.6 1.8 1.7
5 2.6 1.8 1.7
6 2.6 1.8 1.5
7 2.6 3.0 1.9
8 2.4 1.6 1.9
9 2.8 2.4 1.6
10 2.8 2.2 1.7
11 2.6 1.4 1.7
12 2.4 1.8 1.7
13 2.6 2.2 2.1
14 2.4 1.8 1.7
15 2.8 2.2 1.7
16 2.4 2.2 1.9
17 2.6 1.8 1.7

* Projections for the second half of 2011 implied by participants' November projections for the first half of 2011 and for 2011 as a whole. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates.  Return to text



Table 2
November Economic Projections
(in percent)

Projection Year Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation
 
1 2011 1.7 9.1 2.6 1.9
2 2011 1.7 9.0 2.9 1.9
3 2011 1.7 9.1 2.9 1.9
4 2011 1.7 9.1 2.7 1.8
5 2011 1.7 9.1 2.7 1.8
6 2011 1.7 9.1 2.7 1.7
7 2011 1.7 9.0 3.3 1.9
8 2011 1.6 9.1 2.6 1.9
9 2011 1.8 8.9 3.0 1.8
10 2011 1.8 9.0 2.9 1.8
11 2011 1.7 9.0 2.5 1.8
12 2011 1.6 9.1 2.7 1.8
13 2011 1.7 9.0 2.9 2.0
14 2011 1.6 9.1 2.7 1.8
15 2011 1.8 9.1 2.9 1.8
16 2011 1.6 9.1 2.9 1.9
17 2011 1.7 9.1 2.7 1.8
 
1 2012 2.3 8.7 1.5 1.5
2 2012 2.6 8.5 2.1 2.1
3 2012 2.7 8.7 1.8 2.0
4 2012 2.9 8.4 1.8 1.8
5 2012 2.4 8.5 1.7 1.5
6 2012 2.7 8.9 1.4 1.4
7 2012 3.5 8.5 2.8 1.9
8 2012 2.5 8.7 1.9 1.8
9 2012 3.2 8.1 2.2 2.1
10 2012 2.7 8.7 1.4 1.3
11 2012 2.9 8.4 1.5 1.5
12 2012 2.5 8.6 1.4 1.5
13 2012 2.6 8.6 1.8 1.8
14 2012 2.5 8.6 1.4 1.5
15 2012 2.8 8.8 2.0 1.8
16 2012 2.5 8.7 2.0 2.0
17 2012 2.4 8.6 1.5 1.6
 
1 2013 3.1 8.0 1.5 1.5
2 2013 3.0 8.1 2.3 2.1
3 2013 3.0 8.2 2.0 2.0
4 2013 4.0 7.5 1.9 1.9
5 2013 2.7 8.3 1.7 1.6
6 2013 3.2 8.4 1.6 1.4
7 2013 3.8 7.5 2.5 1.8
8 2013 2.9 8.2 2.0 1.9
9 2013 3.0 7.5 2.0 2.0
10 2013 3.5 7.8 1.5 1.5
11 2013 3.0 8.0 1.7 1.6
12 2013 3.2 8.1 1.4 1.4
13 2013 3.2 7.9 1.7 1.7
14 2013 3.2 8.1 1.4 1.4
15 2013 3.5 8.3 1.5 1.4
16 2013 3.0 8.2 1.8 1.8
17 2013 3.0 8.2 1.5 1.6
 
1 2014 3.4 7.1 1.6 1.6
2 2014 3.4 7.5 2.4 2.2
3 2014 3.3 7.6 2.0 2.0
4 2014 4.3 6.5 2.0 2.0
5 2014 2.9 8.0 1.9 1.8
6 2014 3.8 7.7 1.7 1.5
7 2014 3.5 6.5 2.3 1.7
8 2014 2.7 7.5 2.0 2.0
9 2014 3.0 6.8 2.0 2.0
10 2014 4.5 6.7 2.0 2.0
11 2014 4.0 7.2 1.7 1.7
12 2014 3.9 7.3 1.5 1.4
13 2014 3.5 7.1 1.8 1.8
14 2014 3.9 7.3 1.5 1.4
15 2014 3.5 7.8 1.5 1.4
16 2014 3.0 7.7 1.6 1.6
17 2014 3.1 7.7 1.5 1.5
 
1 LR 2.2 5.3 2.0  
2 LR 2.8 6.0 2.0  
3 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0  
4 LR 2.5 5.3 2.0  
5 LR 2.4 5.6 2.0  
6 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0  
7 LR 2.3 6.0 1.5  
8 LR 2.6 6.0 2.0  
9 LR 2.7 6.0 1.7  
10 LR 2.3 5.0 2.0  
11 LR 2.6 5.2 2.0  
12 LR 3.0 5.4 2.0  
13 LR 2.5 5.5 1.8  
14 LR 2.5 5.5 2.0  
15 LR 2.5 6.0 1.5  
16 LR 2.7 5.3 1.5  
17 LR 2.4 5.3 2.0  


Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Change in real GDP
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Actual 2.4 2.2 -3.3 -0.5 3.1 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.8 3.5 4.0 4.5 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 2.9 3.5 3.9 2.7
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.4
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.2

Unemployment rate
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Actual 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 9.6 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 9.1 8.9 8.4 8.0 6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.7 6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.0 8.5 7.8 6.8 5.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.9 8.1 7.5 6.5 5.0

PCE inflation
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
Actual 1.9 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 - - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Actual 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.0 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4

Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.



Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-14 and over the longer run

[Three fan charts display a different visual presentation of the same data from the first three charts of Figure 1, Change in real GDP, Unemployment rate, and PCE inflation.]



Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Number of participants
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
November projections 0 1 16
June projections 0 4 13
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
November projections 11 6 0
June projections 11 6 0
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
2(a) A A A A A A B A A A A A A A A A A
2(b) C B C C C C B C B C C C B B C C B


Uncertainty and Risks - Unemployment Rate

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Number of participants
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
November projections 0 3 14
June projections 0 4 13
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
November projections 0 6 11
June projections 0 8 9
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
2(a) A A A A A A B A B A A A A A A A B
2(b) A B A A A A B A B A A A B B A A B


Uncertainty and Risks - PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Number of participants
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
November projections 1 4 12
June projections 1 2 14
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
November projections 4 10 3
June projections 1 10 6
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
2(a) B A A A A A B A A A B A A A C A B
2(b) B C B C B C B B A C B B A A B B B


Uncertainty and Risks - Core PCE Inflation

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Number of participants
Lower
(C)		 Broadly similar
(B)		 Higher
(A)
November projections 1 5 11
June projections 1 4 12
2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections.
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
(C)		 Broadly balanced
(B)		 Weighted to upside
(A)
November projections 4 10 3
June projections 2 9 6
Individual Responses
Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
2(a) B A A A B A B A A A B A A A C A B
2(b) B C B C B C B B A C B B A A B B B


Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections
1.6 - 1.7 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.8 - 1.9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.0 - 2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.2 - 2.3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 n.a. 3 0
2.4 - 2.5 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 n.a. 8 10
2.6 - 2.7 0 7 5 0 1 0 1 n.a. 4 2
2.8 - 2.9 0 6 3 0 1 0 1 n.a. 1 4
3.0 - 3.1 0 2 0 1 7 1 3 n.a. 1 1
3.2 - 3.3 0 0 1 2 4 2 1 n.a. 0 0
3.4 - 3.5 0 0 1 7 2 3 5 n.a. 0 0
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 n.a. 0 0
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 n.a. 0 0
4.0 - 4.1 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 n.a. 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 n.a. 0 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 n.a. 0 0
Tealbook
percent range		 1.6 - 1.7 2.6 - 2.7 2.4 - 2.5 3.4 - 3.5 3.2 - 3.3 4.2 - 4.3 3.8 - 3.9 4.0 - 4.1    

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 1 2
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 7 6
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 3 5
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 1 1
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 1
6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 5 2
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 n.a. 0 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 n.a. 0 0
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n.a. 0 0
7.0 - 7.1 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 n.a. 0 0
7.2 - 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 n.a. 0 0
7.4 - 7.5 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 n.a. 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 n.a. 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 n.a. 0 0
8.0 - 8.1 0 0 1 9 5 0 1 n.a. 0 0
8.2 - 8.3 0 0 0 2 6 1 0 n.a. 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 0 3 5 1 1 0 0 n.a. 0 0
8.6 - 8.7 0 7 9 1 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
8.8 - 8.9 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
9.0 - 9.1 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
Tealbook
percent range		 9.0 - 9.1 8.8 - 8.9 8.6 - 8.7 8.0 - 8.1 8.0 - 8.1 7.0 - 7.1 7.2 - 7.3 6.0 - 6.1    

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2011-14 and over the longer run

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer run
November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections
1.1 - 1.2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
1.3 - 1.4 0 0 4 2 2 3 0 n.a. 0 0
1.5 - 1.6 0 0 3 7 5 4 6 n.a. 3 3
1.7 - 1.8 0 0 4 2 4 2 3 n.a. 2 3
1.9 - 2.0 0 0 3 3 4 6 6 n.a. 12 11
2.1 - 2.2 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 n.a. 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 8 0 0 1 0 2 n.a. 0 0
2.5 - 2.6 3 3 0 1 1 1 0 n.a. 0 0
2.7 - 2.8 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
2.9 - 3.0 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
3.1 - 3.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
3.3 - 3.4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
3.5 - 3.6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. 0 0
Tealbook
percent range		 2.7 - 2.8 2.3 - 2.4 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 1.5 - 1.6 1.5 - 1.6    

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2011-14

Number of participants
Percent range 2011 2012 2013 2014
November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections		 November
projections		 June
projections
1.1 - 1.2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 n.a.
1.3 - 1.4 0 0 2 5 4 4 3 n.a.
1.5 - 1.6 0 8 6 5 5 5 4 n.a.
1.7 - 1.8 10 7 4 2 3 2 4 n.a.
1.9 - 2.0 7 1 3 3 4 5 5 n.a.
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 n.a.
2.3 - 2.4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 n.a.
2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 n.a.
Tealbook
percent range		 1.7 - 1.8 1.7 - 1.8 1.5 - 1.6 1.5 - 1.6 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.



Figure 3. Risks and uncertainty in economic projections

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants
Lower Similar Higher
November projections0116
June projections0413
Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants
Downside Balanced Upside
November projections1160
June projections1160
Uncertainty about Unemployment
Number of participants
Lower Similar Higher
November projections0314
June projections0413
Risks to Unemployment
Number of participants
Downside Balanced Upside
November projections0611
June projections089
Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants
Lower Similar Higher
November projections1412
June projections1214
Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants
Downside Balanced Upside
November projections4103
June projections1106
Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants
Lower Similar Higher
November projections1511
June projections1412
Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants
Downside Balanced Upside
November projections4103
June projections296


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