Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2007-57 Screen Reader version
♣
Financial Market Perceptions of Recession Risk
(Figure Data)
Thomas B. King, Andrew T. Levin, and Roberto Perli
Figure 1. Recession probabilities from univariate models with good fit
| date | aa10 forecast | sp2y forecast |
| Feb-88 | 0.000034790 | 0.000000439 |
| Mar-88 | 0.002608650 | 0.000000145 |
| Apr-88 | 0.001082589 | 0.000000117 |
| May-88 | 0.001389028 | 0.000000552 |
| Jun-88 | 0.000193520 | 0.000032207 |
| Jul-88 | 0.000311680 | 0.000067082 |
| Aug-88 | 0.000035506 | 0.000766488 |
| Sep-88 | 0.000028911 | 0.003613416 |
| Oct-88 | 0.000006999 | 0.006210500 |
| Nov-88 | 0.000888388 | 0.029038519 |
| Dec-88 | 0.006317411 | 0.201504864 |
| Jan-89 | 0.000737346 | 0.313094103 |
| Feb-89 | 0.020811789 | 0.465522749 |
| Mar-89 | 0.010361489 | 0.725120340 |
| Apr-89 | 0.000147557 | 0.636297882 |
| May-89 | 0.000009628 | 0.417354641 |
| Jun-89 | 0.000559126 | 0.338868489 |
| Jul-89 | 0.000589430 | 0.076919786 |
| Aug-89 | 0.126366813 | 0.254662059 |
| Sep-89 | 0.354084924 | 0.248095778 |
| Oct-89 | 0.080459623 | 0.159816214 |
| Nov-89 | 0.409992941 | 0.127131599 |
| Dec-89 | 0.757236869 | 0.156624188 |
| Jan-90 | 0.761442401 | 0.107111302 |
| Feb-90 | 0.261225523 | 0.102855993 |
| Mar-90 | 0.274751154 | 0.190958541 |
| Apr-90 | 0.356874353 | 0.141317501 |
| May-90 | 0.000770272 | 0.090463997 |
| Jun-90 | 0.003144727 | 0.079017057 |
| Jul-90 | 0.000392725 | 0.026899482 |
| Aug-90 | 0.014285642 | 0.000890441 |
| Sep-90 | 0.000287478 | 0.000160700 |
| Oct-90 | 0.010402480 | 0.000167109 |
| Nov-90 | 0.010537388 | 0.000295580 |
| Dec-90 | 0.262485472 | 0.000462463 |
| Jan-91 | 0.017273734 | 0.000011544 |
| Feb-91 | 0.033334934 | 0.000002922 |
| Mar-91 | 0.000133743 | 0.000002004 |
| Apr-91 | 0.000605204 | 0.000000507 |
| May-91 | 0.000247436 | 0.000000019 |
| Jun-91 | 0.000040579 | 0.000000062 |
| Jul-91 | 0.000003661 | 0.000000023 |
| Aug-91 | 0.000004948 | 0.000000000 |
| Sep-91 | 0.000001299 | 0.000000000 |
| Oct-91 | 0.000026981 | 0.000000000 |
| Nov-91 | 0.000014533 | 0.000000000 |
| Dec-91 | 0.000000049 | 0.000000000 |
| Jan-92 | 0.006121265 | 0.000000000 |
| Feb-92 | 0.000000594 | 0.000000000 |
| Mar-92 | 0.000012168 | 0.000000000 |
| Apr-92 | 0.000114265 | 0.000000000 |
| May-92 | 0.000000157 | 0.000000000 |
| Jun-92 | 0.000000010 | 0.000000000 |
| Jul-92 | 0.000000080 | 0.000000000 |
| Aug-92 | 0.000035937 | 0.000000000 |
| Sep-92 | 0.000005426 | 0.000000000 |
| Oct-92 | 0.000276892 | 0.000000000 |
| Nov-92 | 0.000037117 | 0.000000000 |
| Dec-92 | 0.000001805 | 0.000000000 |
| Jan-93 | 0.000000084 | 0.000000000 |
| Feb-93 | 0.000001542 | 0.000000000 |
| Mar-93 | 0.000367784 | 0.000000000 |
| Apr-93 | 0.000204271 | 0.000000000 |
| May-93 | 0.000944876 | 0.000000000 |
| Jun-93 | 0.000009476 | 0.000000000 |
| Jul-93 | 0.000442779 | 0.000000000 |
| Aug-93 | 0.000000161 | 0.000000000 |
| Sep-93 | 0.001054992 | 0.000000000 |
| Oct-93 | 0.002764370 | 0.000000000 |
| Nov-93 | 0.000086957 | 0.000000000 |
| Dec-93 | 0.000016871 | 0.000000000 |
| Jan-94 | 0.000000050 | 0.000000000 |
| Feb-94 | 0.000215773 | 0.000000000 |
| Mar-94 | 0.008671582 | 0.000000000 |
| Apr-94 | 0.000013004 | 0.000000002 |
| May-94 | 0.000002415 | 0.000000152 |
| Jun-94 | 0.004590705 | 0.000000254 |
| Jul-94 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000225 |
| Aug-94 | 0.000000192 | 0.000001803 |
| Sep-94 | 0.000583045 | 0.000000953 |
| Oct-94 | 0.000073456 | 0.000005989 |
| Nov-94 | 0.000005876 | 0.000178270 |
| Dec-94 | 0.000079012 | 0.064707669 |
| Jan-95 | 0.000000023 | 0.034971725 |
| Feb-95 | 0.000000001 | 0.017411864 |
| Mar-95 | 0.000006412 | 0.006809601 |
| Apr-95 | 0.000002604 | 0.003605602 |
| May-95 | 0.000000000 | 0.006498937 |
| Jun-95 | 0.000035770 | 0.006497065 |
| Jul-95 | 0.000959314 | 0.004369283 |
| Aug-95 | 0.000000001 | 0.003145625 |
| Sep-95 | 0.000002001 | 0.008334356 |
| Oct-95 | 0.000006949 | 0.020987441 |
| Nov-95 | 0.000000053 | 0.009257653 |
| Dec-95 | 0.000000179 | 0.013790186 |
| Jan-96 | 0.000000877 | 0.002853011 |
| Feb-96 | 0.007689331 | 0.000128715 |
| Mar-96 | 0.000010281 | 0.000760894 |
| Apr-96 | 0.000055981 | 0.001181004 |
| May-96 | 0.000061430 | 0.000735567 |
| Jun-96 | 0.000000002 | 0.001666525 |
| Jul-96 | 0.000001285 | 0.003151035 |
| Aug-96 | 0.043787077 | 0.002504346 |
| Sep-96 | 0.000000044 | 0.001858086 |
| Oct-96 | 0.000000004 | 0.001501501 |
| Nov-96 | 0.000000028 | 0.004819802 |
| Dec-96 | 0.000434619 | 0.005037612 |
| Jan-97 | 0.000001197 | 0.003145719 |
| Feb-97 | 0.000363668 | 0.003860660 |
| Mar-97 | 0.003167380 | 0.004868472 |
| Apr-97 | 0.000000023 | 0.007723116 |
| May-97 | 0.000001363 | 0.008622597 |
| Jun-97 | 0.000017345 | 0.010469568 |
| Jul-97 | 0.000000004 | 0.019179655 |
| Aug-97 | 0.000022091 | 0.012874952 |
| Sep-97 | 0.000000272 | 0.016276851 |
| Oct-97 | 0.000000265 | 0.029520559 |
| Nov-97 | 0.000115510 | 0.078876327 |
| Dec-97 | 0.000080769 | 0.134204715 |
| Jan-98 | 0.000001237 | 0.065090328 |
| Feb-98 | 0.000000791 | 0.062758376 |
| Mar-98 | 0.000000190 | 0.092017723 |
| Apr-98 | 0.000000430 | 0.104794680 |
| May-98 | 0.000000007 | 0.107806858 |
| Jun-98 | 0.000000096 | 0.175872899 |
| Jul-98 | 0.000010690 | 0.176682903 |
| Aug-98 | 0.001477351 | 0.153541126 |
| Sep-98 | 0.000016686 | 0.088822554 |
| Oct-98 | 0.578125607 | 0.007187924 |
| Nov-98 | 0.000190375 | 0.023664993 |
| Dec-98 | 0.004308097 | 0.040521698 |
| Jan-99 | 0.000101112 | 0.029513686 |
| Feb-99 | 0.052927983 | 0.022858360 |
| Mar-99 | 0.000400084 | 0.011591480 |
| Apr-99 | 0.005941293 | 0.010606085 |
| May-99 | 0.010140255 | 0.005695868 |
| Jun-99 | 0.000165871 | 0.006471190 |
| Jul-99 | 0.080752675 | 0.006400001 |
| Aug-99 | 0.027830931 | 0.004581787 |
| Sep-99 | 0.002246117 | 0.003198714 |
| Oct-99 | 0.000046449 | 0.003066268 |
| Nov-99 | 0.007262044 | 0.015519222 |
| Dec-99 | 0.008075008 | 0.017340563 |
| Jan-00 | 0.002877778 | 0.029454894 |
| Feb-00 | 0.017975827 | 0.192161357 |
| Mar-00 | 0.023035607 | 0.340049695 |
| Apr-00 | 0.957274643 | 0.480770427 |
| May-00 | 0.423424716 | 0.511233471 |
| Jun-00 | 0.521585531 | 0.583182319 |
| Jul-00 | 0.806019172 | 0.513499057 |
| Aug-00 | 0.736894167 | 0.606212955 |
| Sep-00 | 0.570378390 | 0.354223788 |
| Oct-00 | 0.860630367 | 0.324692943 |
| Nov-00 | 0.410102841 | 0.350148678 |
| Dec-00 | 0.614880204 | 0.267772747 |
| Jan-01 | 0.303257928 | 0.008420944 |
| Feb-01 | 0.062056492 | 0.003428115 |
| Mar-01 | 0.525939845 | 0.000535143 |
| Apr-01 | 0.647389638 | 0.000003441 |
| May-01 | 0.150877109 | 0.000000230 |
| Jun-01 | 0.447276837 | 0.000000069 |
| Jul-01 | 0.010296596 | 0.000000056 |
| Aug-01 | 0.039571129 | 0.000000010 |
| Sep-01 | 0.210977986 | 0.000000000 |
| Oct-01 | 0.030112724 | 0.000000000 |
| Nov-01 | 0.326443197 | 0.000000000 |
| Dec-01 | 0.006811882 | 0.000000000 |
| Jan-02 | 0.013989364 | 0.000000000 |
| Feb-02 | 0.005183946 | 0.000000000 |
| Mar-02 | 0.032874016 | 0.000000000 |
| Apr-02 | 0.012426646 | 0.000000000 |
| May-02 | 0.001298769 | 0.000000000 |
| Jun-02 | 0.060343003 | 0.000000000 |
| Jul-02 | 0.185013806 | 0.000000000 |
| Aug-02 | 0.299602724 | 0.000000000 |
| Sep-02 | 0.252034921 | 0.000000000 |
| Oct-02 | 0.558463336 | 0.000000000 |
| Nov-02 | 0.558110863 | 0.000000000 |
| Dec-02 | 0.000202832 | 0.000000000 |
| Jan-03 | 0.003665693 | 0.000000000 |
| Feb-03 | 0.000067924 | 0.000000000 |
| Mar-03 | 0.000935113 | 0.000000000 |
| Apr-03 | 0.000004502 | 0.000000000 |
| May-03 | 0.000000546 | 0.000000000 |
| Jun-03 | 0.008355544 | 0.000000000 |
| Jul-03 | 0.577818530 | 0.000000000 |
| Aug-03 | 0.000037259 | 0.000000000 |
| Sep-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 |
| Oct-03 | 0.000018776 | 0.000000000 |
| Nov-03 | 0.000016441 | 0.000000000 |
| Dec-03 | 0.000008635 | 0.000000000 |
| Jan-04 | 0.000012724 | 0.000000000 |
| Feb-04 | 0.000000767 | 0.000000000 |
| Mar-04 | 0.000039113 | 0.000000000 |
| Apr-04 | 0.000854289 | 0.000000000 |
| May-04 | 0.000006431 | 0.000000000 |
| Jun-04 | 0.000001122 | 0.000000000 |
| Jul-04 | 0.000031760 | 0.000000000 |
| Aug-04 | 0.000000019 | 0.000000000 |
| Sep-04 | 0.000003362 | 0.000000000 |
| Oct-04 | 0.000000340 | 0.000000000 |
| Nov-04 | 0.000198538 | 0.000000004 |
| Dec-04 | 0.000004847 | 0.000000071 |
| Jan-05 | 0.000000126 | 0.000004769 |
| Feb-05 | 0.000554053 | 0.000157468 |
| Mar-05 | 0.000007167 | 0.000190618 |
| Apr-05 | 0.000000112 | 0.000643221 |
| May-05 | 0.000000375 | 0.004635851 |
| Jun-05 | 0.000004196 | 0.019318984 |
| Jul-05 | 0.000391985 | 0.036318961 |
| Aug-05 | 0.000000006 | 0.064259702 |
| Sep-05 | 0.001720832 | 0.045777706 |
| Oct-05 | 0.000814852 | 0.075759019 |
| Nov-05 | 0.000019292 | 0.088929277 |
| Dec-05 | 0.000019886 | 0.146001390 |
| Jan-06 | 0.004850023 | 0.196487537 |
| Feb-06 | 0.000110696 | 0.326356794 |
| Mar-06 | 0.006798786 | 0.232638912 |
| Apr-06 | 0.002799575 | 0.136272974 |
| May-06 | 0.001001723 | 0.108368627 |
| Jun-06 | 0.009333506 | 0.248431276 |
| Jul-06 | 0.000939351 | 0.288760610 |
| Aug-06 | 0.000143608 | 0.271588877 |
| Sep-06 | 0.000490300 | 0.271655472 |
| Oct-06 | 0.000120455 | 0.304494687 |
| Nov-06 | 0.000046494 | 0.396506870 |
| Dec-06 | 0.019983922 | 0.346079778 |
| Jan-07 | 0.002868666 | 0.357824732 |
| Feb-07 | 0.000010681 | 0.356582561 |
| Mar-07 | 0.037442786 | 0.251680045 |
Figure 2. Recession probabilities from univariate models with poor fit
| date | SILVERL2D forecast | HYLD10 forecast |
| Feb-88 | 0.075529617 | 0.027449109 |
| Mar-88 | 0.069451564 | 0.031777308 |
| Apr-88 | 0.073292816 | 0.024515167 |
| May-88 | 0.072634123 | 0.023094896 |
| Jun-88 | 0.070206270 | 0.022484434 |
| Jul-88 | 0.076085861 | 0.021510668 |
| Aug-88 | 0.076655459 | 0.022318330 |
| Sep-88 | 0.072776312 | 0.034252166 |
| Oct-88 | 0.071127366 | 0.045472300 |
| Nov-88 | 0.072207755 | 0.049177012 |
| Dec-88 | 0.074616910 | 0.047293623 |
| Jan-89 | 0.072700542 | 0.042522597 |
| Feb-89 | 0.072907700 | 0.044487961 |
| Mar-89 | 0.071426476 | 0.042584243 |
| Apr-89 | 0.075080461 | 0.053960527 |
| May-89 | 0.074886581 | 0.056310372 |
| Jun-89 | 0.071432424 | 0.082875859 |
| Jul-89 | 0.071974934 | 0.110122800 |
| Aug-89 | 0.072955213 | 0.086145640 |
| Sep-89 | 0.073113101 | 0.102064232 |
| Oct-89 | 0.072423697 | 0.144705473 |
| Nov-89 | 0.069911865 | 0.230229827 |
| Dec-89 | 0.075646349 | 0.259217334 |
| Jan-90 | 0.076889101 | 0.151975092 |
| Feb-90 | 0.069686392 | 0.178248133 |
| Mar-90 | 0.075586132 | 0.117018703 |
| Apr-90 | 0.071128265 | 0.120816473 |
| May-90 | 0.072709482 | 0.011012187 |
| Jun-90 | 0.074811301 | 0.055093142 |
| Jul-90 | 0.071933880 | 0.022272015 |
| Aug-90 | 0.071180330 | 0.039103424 |
| Sep-90 | 0.076621603 | 0.069036966 |
| Oct-90 | 0.075607553 | 0.115345506 |
| Nov-90 | 0.070980799 | 0.099514426 |
| Dec-90 | 0.071708890 | 0.099411346 |
| Jan-91 | 0.072186047 | 0.086181998 |
| Feb-91 | 0.076833638 | 0.026149082 |
| Mar-91 | 0.066483445 | 0.011858245 |
| Apr-91 | 0.075380768 | 0.010742005 |
| May-91 | 0.072604575 | 0.007666879 |
| Jun-91 | 0.069787872 | 0.006111404 |
| Jul-91 | 0.077931386 | 0.004581417 |
| Aug-91 | 0.077466669 | 0.005507730 |
| Sep-91 | 0.067292751 | 0.004780645 |
| Oct-91 | 0.073192707 | 0.004121361 |
| Nov-91 | 0.074534674 | 0.010136484 |
| Dec-91 | 0.074152241 | 0.014857956 |
| Jan-92 | 0.069263496 | 0.018130259 |
| Feb-92 | 0.074952850 | 0.009372959 |
| Mar-92 | 0.073844010 | 0.014402479 |
| Apr-92 | 0.073314749 | 0.013976650 |
| May-92 | 0.072013952 | 0.015821281 |
| Jun-92 | 0.073463368 | 0.015986887 |
| Jul-92 | 0.074167026 | 0.016102905 |
| Aug-92 | 0.073757741 | 0.027391316 |
| Sep-92 | 0.071704435 | 0.027339962 |
| Oct-92 | 0.072721303 | 0.034020319 |
| Nov-92 | 0.072420079 | 0.024623404 |
| Dec-92 | 0.073981086 | 0.025931629 |
| Jan-93 | 0.072993552 | 0.021166265 |
| Feb-93 | 0.072784736 | 0.021313466 |
| Mar-93 | 0.072888684 | 0.023668844 |
| Apr-93 | 0.068666833 | 0.024367756 |
| May-93 | 0.071414872 | 0.018754069 |
| Jun-93 | 0.080088732 | 0.015334530 |
| Jul-93 | 0.065534173 | 0.017158616 |
| Aug-93 | 0.082516084 | 0.016275360 |
| Sep-93 | 0.078469795 | 0.022648912 |
| Oct-93 | 0.064811035 | 0.022450229 |
| Nov-93 | 0.072093932 | 0.019113156 |
| Dec-93 | 0.070648479 | 0.016215383 |
| Jan-94 | 0.076590029 | 0.013143640 |
| Feb-94 | 0.073392324 | 0.013248791 |
| Mar-94 | 0.072246650 | 0.017397514 |
| Apr-94 | 0.076197079 | 0.013729435 |
| May-94 | 0.070736113 | 0.013659505 |
| Jun-94 | 0.074854062 | 0.016127399 |
| Jul-94 | 0.073323026 | 0.012121619 |
| Aug-94 | 0.072830644 | 0.012135404 |
| Sep-94 | 0.069302404 | 0.011535881 |
| Oct-94 | 0.076959369 | 0.009023010 |
| Nov-94 | 0.074968249 | 0.010532852 |
| Dec-94 | 0.074610301 | 0.012145655 |
| Jan-95 | 0.068944644 | 0.010825645 |
| Feb-95 | 0.073623418 | 0.009388244 |
| Mar-95 | 0.072834954 | 0.012248559 |
| Apr-95 | 0.064491662 | 0.010416979 |
| May-95 | 0.082121695 | 0.009995410 |
| Jun-95 | 0.074904039 | 0.015622359 |
| Jul-95 | 0.073033886 | 0.013035063 |
| Aug-95 | 0.069014733 | 0.011299916 |
| Sep-95 | 0.075071859 | 0.012799871 |
| Oct-95 | 0.074131004 | 0.013721000 |
| Nov-95 | 0.072840462 | 0.013966069 |
| Dec-95 | 0.073740761 | 0.014606760 |
| Jan-96 | 0.068869566 | 0.012992540 |
| Feb-96 | 0.074680248 | 0.013894758 |
| Mar-96 | 0.075555824 | 0.009995830 |
| Apr-96 | 0.073185862 | 0.009174934 |
| May-96 | 0.072240085 | 0.009409268 |
| Jun-96 | 0.074747196 | 0.007667032 |
| Jul-96 | 0.071789601 | 0.008722243 |
| Aug-96 | 0.071459000 | 0.010586466 |
| Sep-96 | 0.075042630 | 0.005740130 |
| Oct-96 | 0.072727949 | 0.006873847 |
| Nov-96 | 0.073141018 | 0.007452563 |
| Dec-96 | 0.072096756 | 0.008135464 |
| Jan-97 | 0.073400648 | 0.005574313 |
| Feb-97 | 0.069334767 | 0.006013726 |
| Mar-97 | 0.075444426 | 0.006074067 |
| Apr-97 | 0.078797672 | 0.004588762 |
| May-97 | 0.068482827 | 0.004550599 |
| Jun-97 | 0.073267297 | 0.005359344 |
| Jul-97 | 0.077347999 | 0.005205878 |
| Aug-97 | 0.067143750 | 0.006069427 |
| Sep-97 | 0.072323581 | 0.005556334 |
| Oct-97 | 0.072603199 | 0.006624601 |
| Nov-97 | 0.075274289 | 0.007499595 |
| Dec-97 | 0.066797961 | 0.007868319 |
| Jan-98 | 0.080287764 | 0.011497965 |
| Feb-98 | 0.066213244 | 0.011353842 |
| Mar-98 | 0.085776245 | 0.010168099 |
| Apr-98 | 0.068180464 | 0.012003856 |
| May-98 | 0.080939583 | 0.011725550 |
| Jun-98 | 0.068726753 | 0.018832383 |
| Jul-98 | 0.069013476 | 0.019668386 |
| Aug-98 | 0.077973770 | 0.063521616 |
| Sep-98 | 0.071124141 | 0.093661894 |
| Oct-98 | 0.072305854 | 0.174189469 |
| Nov-98 | 0.072644826 | 0.068298075 |
| Dec-98 | 0.073841075 | 0.094533407 |
| Jan-99 | 0.069534173 | 0.074645899 |
| Feb-99 | 0.072016603 | 0.076746150 |
| Mar-99 | 0.080710886 | 0.046723087 |
| Apr-99 | 0.070427291 | 0.046104292 |
| May-99 | 0.070331150 | 0.049872483 |
| Jun-99 | 0.077105041 | 0.041613852 |
| Jul-99 | 0.069654446 | 0.051402542 |
| Aug-99 | 0.073637098 | 0.045399727 |
| Sep-99 | 0.074018826 | 0.050881395 |
| Oct-99 | 0.071449064 | 0.048057798 |
| Nov-99 | 0.076505572 | 0.046289511 |
| Dec-99 | 0.070692411 | 0.036560497 |
| Jan-00 | 0.073400945 | 0.037523385 |
| Feb-00 | 0.072797534 | 0.054783612 |
| Mar-00 | 0.074782190 | 0.110819686 |
| Apr-00 | 0.071633019 | 0.133056623 |
| May-00 | 0.073639356 | 0.131299977 |
| Jun-00 | 0.072240547 | 0.147907925 |
| Jul-00 | 0.073482182 | 0.176053914 |
| Aug-00 | 0.073551986 | 0.160655913 |
| Sep-00 | 0.072148997 | 0.200033756 |
| Oct-00 | 0.073802531 | 0.357563531 |
| Nov-00 | 0.073935447 | 0.605373785 |
| Dec-00 | 0.071866386 | 0.585938216 |
| Jan-01 | 0.072203172 | 0.273205788 |
| Feb-01 | 0.074986127 | 0.214481177 |
| Mar-01 | 0.073244617 | 0.341520490 |
| Apr-01 | 0.071502600 | 0.306294979 |
| May-01 | 0.072146224 | 0.264265844 |
| Jun-01 | 0.074675501 | 0.295073721 |
| Jul-01 | 0.073506089 | 0.227260117 |
| Aug-01 | 0.072276707 | 0.211141618 |
| Sep-01 | 0.070338669 | 0.576592542 |
| Oct-01 | 0.075105508 | 0.283684928 |
| Nov-01 | 0.076520032 | 0.166954593 |
| Dec-01 | 0.066724832 | 0.139966290 |
| Jan-02 | 0.075035182 | 0.121343004 |
| Feb-02 | 0.075057635 | 0.142686813 |
| Mar-02 | 0.071184257 | 0.081057775 |
| Apr-02 | 0.073841942 | 0.063416919 |
| May-02 | 0.071855242 | 0.108955470 |
| Jun-02 | 0.072728578 | 0.334953521 |
| Jul-02 | 0.074782642 | 0.367343768 |
| Aug-02 | 0.077511873 | 0.383780401 |
| Sep-02 | 0.068614756 | 0.582136005 |
| Oct-02 | 0.075227054 | 0.585886548 |
| Nov-02 | 0.069986977 | 0.358474485 |
| Dec-02 | 0.072889658 | 0.288301346 |
| Jan-03 | 0.072485290 | 0.212847391 |
| Feb-03 | 0.077234378 | 0.213966423 |
| Mar-03 | 0.072327925 | 0.163713632 |
| Apr-03 | 0.071764754 | 0.068757671 |
| May-03 | 0.070552014 | 0.107220028 |
| Jun-03 | 0.077778437 | 0.091614208 |
| Jul-03 | 0.067758957 | 0.074584189 |
| Aug-03 | 0.074609463 | 0.039330992 |
| Sep-03 | 0.073057953 | 0.031090906 |
| Oct-03 | 0.076627377 | 0.025025400 |
| Nov-03 | 0.069249870 | 0.021284800 |
| Dec-03 | 0.070810490 | 0.015883754 |
| Jan-04 | 0.071654371 | 0.015677245 |
| Feb-04 | 0.077774834 | 0.018919323 |
| Mar-04 | 0.068169305 | 0.025227568 |
| Apr-04 | 0.080802984 | 0.017750429 |
| May-04 | 0.082175209 | 0.018434610 |
| Jun-04 | 0.063978052 | 0.016535677 |
| Jul-04 | 0.068640928 | 0.017470038 |
| Aug-04 | 0.074678553 | 0.016813786 |
| Sep-04 | 0.078025105 | 0.017117195 |
| Oct-04 | 0.065608627 | 0.013290071 |
| Nov-04 | 0.076084740 | 0.011382603 |
| Dec-04 | 0.078871027 | 0.010083018 |
| Jan-05 | 0.073425698 | 0.011066567 |
| Feb-05 | 0.066525977 | 0.009661421 |
| Mar-05 | 0.075284939 | 0.013133076 |
| Apr-05 | 0.075070434 | 0.019537288 |
| May-05 | 0.072671204 | 0.023133054 |
| Jun-05 | 0.070851194 | 0.021492924 |
| Jul-05 | 0.076833180 | 0.015238952 |
| Aug-05 | 0.071161660 | 0.015010156 |
| Sep-05 | 0.071775162 | 0.021058738 |
| Oct-05 | 0.070848123 | 0.021489923 |
| Nov-05 | 0.074997448 | 0.019569667 |
| Dec-05 | 0.069973601 | 0.020550405 |
| Jan-06 | 0.074538441 | 0.019066429 |
| Feb-06 | 0.074171510 | 0.015256907 |
| Mar-06 | 0.070388177 | 0.013894628 |
| Apr-06 | 0.067715044 | 0.011297214 |
Figure 3. Recession probabilities from best bivariate model and model combinations
| date | AA5_sp2y forecast | simpleavg | bmavg |
| Feb-88 | 0.000000269 | 0.054401927 | 0.000008745 |
| Mar-88 | 0.000005693 | 0.068818155 | 0.000255947 |
| Apr-88 | 0.000000789 | 0.064262247 | 0.000135539 |
| May-88 | 0.000002906 | 0.074771918 | 0.000297668 |
| Jun-88 | 0.000002052 | 0.061050552 | 0.000064613 |
| Jul-88 | 0.000005828 | 0.060720910 | 0.000082704 |
| Aug-88 | 0.000007512 | 0.063348574 | 0.000034867 |
| Sep-88 | 0.000006854 | 0.059664661 | 0.000029306 |
| Oct-88 | 0.000010651 | 0.059926008 | 0.000023838 |
| Nov-88 | 0.006916382 | 0.087271712 | 0.005999065 |
| Dec-88 | 0.062457132 | 0.113229899 | 0.057817120 |
| Jan-89 | 0.004417951 | 0.135684493 | 0.007058922 |
| Feb-89 | 0.214512341 | 0.189478080 | 0.235927844 |
| Mar-89 | 0.289711615 | 0.239943229 | 0.298562161 |
| Apr-89 | 0.012266934 | 0.183405089 | 0.012941425 |
| May-89 | 0.001709832 | 0.161909884 | 0.001719045 |
| Jun-89 | 0.010370002 | 0.170005406 | 0.009269829 |
| Jul-89 | 0.000367402 | 0.145552470 | 0.000921994 |
| Aug-89 | 0.902056781 | 0.213339444 | 0.735911711 |
| Sep-89 | 0.971550389 | 0.209923606 | 0.934619072 |
| Oct-89 | 0.294626483 | 0.190001995 | 0.324523804 |
| Nov-89 | 0.920153903 | 0.249688490 | 0.902327436 |
| Dec-89 | 0.993554836 | 0.300549359 | 0.990773838 |
| Jan-90 | 0.992297022 | 0.261420558 | 0.988777730 |
| Feb-90 | 0.522574217 | 0.185975554 | 0.676591898 |
| Mar-90 | 0.561055504 | 0.212692828 | 0.737728329 |
| Apr-90 | 0.752842954 | 0.186959388 | 0.841238978 |
| May-90 | 0.000099008 | 0.080879447 | 0.001662080 |
| Jun-90 | 0.000379665 | 0.091014516 | 0.003643022 |
| Jul-90 | 0.000003667 | 0.087138593 | 0.000285803 |
| Aug-90 | 0.000047120 | 0.096116445 | 0.004655730 |
| Sep-90 | 0.000008034 | 0.093887501 | 0.000159458 |
| Oct-90 | 0.000252854 | 0.109734500 | 0.002863457 |
| Nov-90 | 0.001352158 | 0.124783119 | 0.004447750 |
| Dec-90 | 0.060868061 | 0.161677722 | 0.174776564 |
| Jan-91 | 0.000368555 | 0.118611201 | 0.003469253 |
| Feb-91 | 0.000072716 | 0.107010294 | 0.002373956 |
| Mar-91 | 0.000000024 | 0.060343273 | 0.000016034 |
| Apr-91 | 0.000000006 | 0.058169912 | 0.000062910 |
| May-91 | 0.000000003 | 0.051438420 | 0.000024713 |
| Jun-91 | 0.000000004 | 0.055117718 | 0.000011819 |
| Jul-91 | 0.000000000 | 0.052830223 | 0.000002336 |
| Aug-91 | 0.000000000 | 0.048134523 | 0.000001500 |
| Sep-91 | 0.000000000 | 0.041924993 | 0.000000538 |
| Oct-91 | 0.000000000 | 0.037955762 | 0.000001006 |
| Nov-91 | 0.000000000 | 0.038834156 | 0.000000411 |
| Dec-91 | 0.000000000 | 0.035199126 | 0.000000015 |
| Jan-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.039697988 | 0.000022394 |
| Feb-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.033744547 | 0.000000045 |
| Mar-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.037011308 | 0.000000546 |
| Apr-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.030755490 | 0.000001341 |
| May-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.027025506 | 0.000000018 |
| Jun-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.026823411 | 0.000000004 |
| Jul-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.024584750 | 0.000000013 |
| Aug-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.029846119 | 0.000000345 |
| Sep-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.029564609 | 0.000000074 |
| Oct-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.047119459 | 0.000001190 |
| Nov-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.039894212 | 0.000000370 |
| Dec-92 | 0.000000000 | 0.029471183 | 0.000000048 |
| Jan-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.027125151 | 0.000000008 |
| Feb-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.025653736 | 0.000000034 |
| Mar-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.027107922 | 0.000001330 |
| Apr-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.024517505 | 0.000001051 |
| May-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.027539977 | 0.000005469 |
| Jun-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.026272753 | 0.000000242 |
| Jul-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.027767340 | 0.000004716 |
| Aug-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.026191163 | 0.000000022 |
| Sep-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.029736639 | 0.000004864 |
| Oct-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.030077370 | 0.000018872 |
| Nov-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.029274522 | 0.000001179 |
| Dec-93 | 0.000000000 | 0.025853125 | 0.000000452 |
| Jan-94 | 0.000000000 | 0.026400016 | 0.000000015 |
| Feb-94 | 0.000000000 | 0.027241061 | 0.000003984 |
| Mar-94 | 0.000000001 | 0.035603696 | 0.000160361 |
| Apr-94 | 0.000000000 | 0.033280946 | 0.000000618 |
| May-94 | 0.000000000 | 0.031005745 | 0.000000458 |
| Jun-94 | 0.000000011 | 0.035485939 | 0.000089364 |
| Jul-94 | 0.000000000 | 0.028751722 | 0.000000012 |
| Aug-94 | 0.000000000 | 0.029233305 | 0.000000156 |
| Sep-94 | 0.000000006 | 0.033086510 | 0.000031590 |
| Oct-94 | 0.000000002 | 0.035662763 | 0.000009658 |
| Nov-94 | 0.000000027 | 0.042557019 | 0.000004817 |
| Dec-94 | 0.000012764 | 0.059110574 | 0.000188396 |
| Jan-95 | 0.000000004 | 0.054388327 | 0.000007474 |
| Feb-95 | 0.000000000 | 0.042023450 | 0.000001675 |
| Mar-95 | 0.000000124 | 0.040071363 | 0.000006311 |
| Apr-95 | 0.000000056 | 0.031838805 | 0.000002399 |
| May-95 | 0.000000000 | 0.037480109 | 0.000000303 |
| Jun-95 | 0.000000387 | 0.044551219 | 0.000009752 |
| Jul-95 | 0.000001083 | 0.043579883 | 0.000066783 |
| Aug-95 | 0.000000000 | 0.038803188 | 0.000000279 |
| Sep-95 | 0.000000030 | 0.038086458 | 0.000002887 |
| Oct-95 | 0.000000034 | 0.049260767 | 0.000009094 |
| Nov-95 | 0.000000001 | 0.055738352 | 0.000001666 |
| Dec-95 | 0.000000002 | 0.050973608 | 0.000002897 |
| Jan-96 | 0.000000000 | 0.049984331 | 0.000002020 |
| Feb-96 | 0.000002512 | 0.049662792 | 0.000204996 |
| Mar-96 | 0.000000018 | 0.041143207 | 0.000002929 |
| Apr-96 | 0.000000017 | 0.032482054 | 0.000008163 |
| May-96 | 0.000000025 | 0.032555827 | 0.000008590 |
| Jun-96 | 0.000000000 | 0.032698787 | 0.000000197 |
| Jul-96 | 0.000000001 | 0.034200886 | 0.000002089 |
| Aug-96 | 0.000012496 | 0.043009083 | 0.004096957 |
| Sep-96 | 0.000000000 | 0.032245358 | 0.000000364 |
| Oct-96 | 0.000000000 | 0.032262892 | 0.000000189 |
| Nov-96 | 0.000000000 | 0.032562133 | 0.000000564 |
| Dec-96 | 0.000000158 | 0.036337799 | 0.000090364 |
| Jan-97 | 0.000000001 | 0.032515766 | 0.000002622 |
| Feb-97 | 0.000000138 | 0.033745947 | 0.000095825 |
| Mar-97 | 0.000000899 | 0.039355074 | 0.000704391 |
| Apr-97 | 0.000000000 | 0.043096695 | 0.000000763 |
| May-97 | 0.000000003 | 0.033416287 | 0.000004235 |
| Jun-97 | 0.000000018 | 0.034921029 | 0.000018235 |
| Jul-97 | 0.000000000 | 0.047117875 | 0.000000615 |
| Aug-97 | 0.000000048 | 0.048812395 | 0.000024314 |
| Sep-97 | 0.000000004 | 0.043235461 | 0.000002396 |
| Oct-97 | 0.000000010 | 0.040162379 | 0.000002528 |
| Nov-97 | 0.000002895 | 0.057240881 | 0.000099415 |
| Dec-97 | 0.000001091 | 0.063646367 | 0.000126609 |
| Jan-98 | 0.000000438 | 0.063021459 | 0.000008165 |
| Feb-98 | 0.000005365 | 0.052919049 | 0.000012747 |
| Mar-98 | 0.000000686 | 0.055864952 | 0.000006545 |
| Apr-98 | 0.000001294 | 0.063599420 | 0.000010595 |
| May-98 | 0.000000133 | 0.071577364 | 0.000003572 |
| Jun-98 | 0.000001400 | 0.081517976 | 0.000016538 |
| Jul-98 | 0.000009513 | 0.064990646 | 0.000066517 |
| Aug-98 | 0.000013011 | 0.086576950 | 0.000847919 |
| Sep-98 | 0.000002055 | 0.087765538 | 0.000098958 |
| Oct-98 | 0.187420341 | 0.119994701 | 0.138876106 |
| Nov-98 | 0.000009696 | 0.066254810 | 0.000060295 |
| Dec-98 | 0.000898702 | 0.070605752 | 0.001020314 |
| Jan-99 | 0.000015530 | 0.058388627 | 0.000062071 |
| Feb-99 | 0.007851130 | 0.072136121 | 0.007413025 |
| Mar-99 | 0.000001975 | 0.048150619 | 0.000040430 |
| Apr-99 | 0.000094433 | 0.045156011 | 0.000299889 |
| May-99 | 0.000390302 | 0.050788491 | 0.000833988 |
| Jun-99 | 0.000000364 | 0.046411558 | 0.000028616 |
| Jul-99 | 0.001895468 | 0.054011550 | 0.006485447 |
| Aug-99 | 0.001980565 | 0.056908504 | 0.003679446 |
| Sep-99 | 0.000076053 | 0.046377612 | 0.000168921 |
| Oct-99 | 0.000002315 | 0.044819332 | 0.000011357 |
| Nov-99 | 0.001448151 | 0.060833493 | 0.001517675 |
| Dec-99 | 0.004043009 | 0.063795548 | 0.003257164 |
| Jan-00 | 0.002811789 | 0.061390468 | 0.003204686 |
| Feb-00 | 0.001552609 | 0.089115579 | 0.024773592 |
| Mar-00 | 0.015622470 | 0.112802050 | 0.050916084 |
| Apr-00 | 0.999229593 | 0.283241091 | 0.997993034 |
| May-00 | 0.851971367 | 0.213241042 | 0.814005883 |
| Jun-00 | 0.935378756 | 0.215874198 | 0.883299637 |
| Jul-00 | 0.985034746 | 0.278628200 | 0.980338911 |
| Aug-00 | 0.979916497 | 0.290960835 | 0.967080546 |
| Sep-00 | 0.829143939 | 0.253799036 | 0.752616647 |
| Oct-00 | 0.997142716 | 0.366900589 | 0.985761924 |
| Nov-00 | 0.702165130 | 0.314851579 | 0.557901212 |
| Dec-00 | 0.902992048 | 0.314679239 | 0.725281200 |
| Jan-01 | 0.009552067 | 0.168283749 | 0.029729966 |
| Feb-01 | 0.000102721 | 0.112580113 | 0.001465029 |
| Mar-01 | 0.001386767 | 0.150699725 | 0.037165935 |
| Apr-01 | 0.000761678 | 0.126311000 | 0.035468932 |
| May-01 | 0.000004104 | 0.061853758 | 0.000594091 |
| Jun-01 | 0.000022021 | 0.095549160 | 0.006194989 |
| Jul-01 | 0.000000001 | 0.047576046 | 0.000017143 |
| Aug-01 | 0.000000008 | 0.044959709 | 0.000046259 |
| Sep-01 | 0.000000000 | 0.079187805 | 0.000214175 |
| Oct-01 | 0.000000000 | 0.064123239 | 0.000027238 |
| Nov-01 | 0.000000003 | 0.073838919 | 0.000796164 |
| Dec-01 | 0.000000000 | 0.043101409 | 0.000005754 |
| Jan-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.051418763 | 0.000027293 |
| Feb-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.049918292 | 0.000011484 |
| Mar-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.056386902 | 0.000099517 |
| Apr-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.035125058 | 0.000006755 |
| May-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.034342474 | 0.000000765 |
| Jun-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.055612239 | 0.000025753 |
| Jul-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.076038555 | 0.000089062 |
| Aug-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.095558237 | 0.000153602 |
| Sep-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.096275479 | 0.000096081 |
| Oct-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.137471955 | 0.000781757 |
| Nov-02 | 0.000000002 | 0.130093644 | 0.000710178 |
| Dec-02 | 0.000000000 | 0.050639650 | 0.000000090 |
| Jan-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.053910856 | 0.000000559 |
| Feb-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.048483786 | 0.000000043 |
| Mar-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.050118275 | 0.000000211 |
| Apr-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.030718260 | 0.000000011 |
| May-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.028190950 | 0.000000008 |
| Jun-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.045601078 | 0.000001314 |
| Jul-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.119629026 | 0.001926772 |
| Aug-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.033220590 | 0.000000100 |
| Sep-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.022132643 | 0.000000001 |
| Oct-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.024439370 | 0.000000040 |
| Nov-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.024225723 | 0.000000056 |
| Dec-03 | 0.000000000 | 0.020622785 | 0.000000086 |
| Jan-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.022147190 | 0.000000115 |
| Feb-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.024730982 | 0.000000030 |
| Mar-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.026677929 | 0.000000278 |
| Apr-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.030388461 | 0.000002507 |
| May-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.031323231 | 0.000000061 |
| Jun-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.021827395 | 0.000000037 |
| Jul-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.021939236 | 0.000000247 |
| Aug-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.022278052 | 0.000000004 |
| Sep-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.023728072 | 0.000000079 |
| Oct-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.023095014 | 0.000000036 |
| Nov-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.025148098 | 0.000003028 |
| Dec-04 | 0.000000000 | 0.023575367 | 0.000000412 |
| Jan-05 | 0.000000000 | 0.025079562 | 0.000000073 |
| Feb-05 | 0.000000283 | 0.027000149 | 0.000019576 |
| Mar-05 | 0.000000009 | 0.025719937 | 0.000000872 |
| Apr-05 | 0.000000003 | 0.028406308 | 0.000000244 |
| May-05 | 0.000000021 | 0.028448560 | 0.000000950 |
| Jun-05 | 0.000000255 | 0.031991544 | 0.000005076 |
| Jul-05 | 0.000024000 | 0.037674130 | 0.000089422 |
| Aug-05 | 0.000000006 | 0.034571956 | 0.000001571 |
| Sep-05 | 0.000138191 | 0.043185758 | 0.000300038 |
| Oct-05 | 0.000048732 | 0.048143103 | 0.000220692 |
| Nov-05 | 0.000004120 | 0.042991870 | 0.000032994 |
| Dec-05 | 0.000010885 | 0.046532152 | 0.000054452 |
| Jan-06 | 0.000708123 | 0.083796391 | 0.002105358 |
| Feb-06 | 0.000106432 | 0.091828132 | 0.000421767 |
| Mar-06 | 0.001018779 | 0.085682241 | 0.003879103 |
| Apr-06 | 0.000079616 | 0.068020303 | 0.001002316 |
Figure 4. Posterior distribution of recession probabilities across parameters and models
| date | mean | median | lo90 | hi90 |
| 2-1-88 | 0.041281904 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.175216171 |
| 3-1-88 | 0.067435290 | 0.000000083 | 0.000000000 | 0.840855771 |
| 4-1-88 | 0.057668434 | 0.000000012 | 0.000000000 | 0.698967826 |
| 5-1-88 | 0.064614098 | 0.000000050 | 0.000000000 | 0.855900970 |
| 6-1-88 | 0.053126042 | 0.000000035 | 0.000000000 | 0.556759081 |
| 7-1-88 | 0.058215966 | 0.000000076 | 0.000000000 | 0.685173875 |
| 8-1-88 | 0.052731568 | 0.000000075 | 0.000000000 | 0.511567330 |
| 9-1-88 | 0.050686078 | 0.000000084 | 0.000000000 | 0.415612355 |
| 10-1-88 | 0.049045550 | 0.000000073 | 0.000000000 | 0.351260594 |
| 11-1-88 | 0.127133228 | 0.000335852 | 0.000000000 | 0.990748675 |
| 12-1-88 | 0.239547650 | 0.015148259 | 0.000000128 | 0.999052706 |
| 1-1-89 | 0.139805029 | 0.000926365 | 0.000000004 | 0.992138383 |
| 2-1-89 | 0.380768349 | 0.150105058 | 0.000002981 | 0.999934655 |
| 3-1-89 | 0.423211106 | 0.244415504 | 0.000004008 | 0.999972233 |
| 4-1-89 | 0.172358323 | 0.002341352 | 0.000000005 | 0.996231031 |
| 5-1-89 | 0.096642385 | 0.000082378 | 0.000000000 | 0.945186786 |
| 6-1-89 | 0.146159111 | 0.001236505 | 0.000000003 | 0.989772916 |
| 7-1-89 | 0.078878487 | 0.000018311 | 0.000000000 | 0.912703924 |
| 8-1-89 | 0.623839479 | 0.872244375 | 0.000030607 | 0.999998949 |
| 9-1-89 | 0.746362857 | 0.984695060 | 0.000333067 | 0.999999950 |
| 10-1-89 | 0.409359651 | 0.206669170 | 0.000004809 | 0.999956488 |
| 11-1-89 | 0.693198792 | 0.954701556 | 0.000190464 | 0.999999802 |
| 12-1-89 | 0.826682460 | 0.998790547 | 0.001628271 | 0.999999999 |
| 1-1-90 | 0.820535624 | 0.998643822 | 0.001354815 | 0.999999998 |
| 2-1-90 | 0.554022354 | 0.680481298 | 0.000033456 | 0.999995560 |
| 3-1-90 | 0.591189192 | 0.796416729 | 0.000054811 | 0.999998040 |
| 4-1-90 | 0.651748621 | 0.910106463 | 0.000120985 | 0.999999541 |
| 5-1-90 | 0.084437794 | 0.000027696 | 0.000000000 | 0.939187176 |
| 6-1-90 | 0.102859032 | 0.000117987 | 0.000000000 | 0.978699800 |
| 7-1-90 | 0.058184333 | 0.000000523 | 0.000000000 | 0.648611052 |
| 8-1-90 | 0.084109015 | 0.000008262 | 0.000000000 | 0.960591133 |
| 9-1-90 | 0.060966892 | 0.000000223 | 0.000000000 | 0.750229301 |
| 10-1-90 | 0.099221874 | 0.000019708 | 0.000000000 | 0.986463447 |
| 11-1-90 | 0.123637612 | 0.000096560 | 0.000000000 | 0.992741786 |
| 12-1-90 | 0.303922071 | 0.023398904 | 0.000000040 | 0.999940847 |
| 1-1-91 | 0.117135528 | 0.000037291 | 0.000000000 | 0.992381958 |
| 2-1-91 | 0.103389710 | 0.000012919 | 0.000000000 | 0.987460474 |
| 3-1-91 | 0.038998344 | 0.000000003 | 0.000000000 | 0.126498300 |
| 4-1-91 | 0.040507256 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.151139222 |
| 5-1-91 | 0.037136264 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.103347282 |
| 6-1-91 | 0.033784971 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.055670561 |
| 7-1-91 | 0.025855305 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.010077191 |
| 8-1-91 | 0.025164406 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.008585565 |
| 9-1-91 | 0.022076075 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001996774 |
| 10-1-91 | 0.024525230 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.005130101 |
| 11-1-91 | 0.021690764 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001536500 |
| 12-1-91 | 0.015123075 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000075823 |
| 1-1-92 | 0.030382568 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.025256649 |
| 2-1-92 | 0.015571903 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000120541 |
| 3-1-92 | 0.016591113 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000330677 |
| 4-1-92 | 0.018929118 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000854712 |
| 5-1-92 | 0.014097171 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000050592 |
| 6-1-92 | 0.012273916 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000007102 |
| 7-1-92 | 0.013948983 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000014045 |
| 8-1-92 | 0.016995032 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000168150 |
| 9-1-92 | 0.015840844 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000048465 |
| 10-1-92 | 0.021626468 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001755157 |
| 11-1-92 | 0.017076206 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000302766 |
| 12-1-92 | 0.013468451 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000022919 |
| 1-1-93 | 0.011848330 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000004635 |
| 2-1-93 | 0.013227620 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000021510 |
| 3-1-93 | 0.017127225 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000361496 |
| 4-1-93 | 0.016202755 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000149984 |
| 5-1-93 | 0.019063031 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000948319 |
| 6-1-93 | 0.012900797 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000047537 |
| 7-1-93 | 0.016558068 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000617076 |
| 8-1-93 | 0.010316605 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000009122 |
| 9-1-93 | 0.017251972 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001133510 |
| 10-1-93 | 0.019013228 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.002695843 |
| 11-1-93 | 0.014386596 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000255243 |
| 12-1-93 | 0.012775981 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000093475 |
| 1-1-94 | 0.009938508 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000007828 |
| 2-1-94 | 0.016260098 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000833753 |
| 3-1-94 | 0.025931034 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.022899678 |
| 4-1-94 | 0.015846071 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000616935 |
| 5-1-94 | 0.015226427 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000540308 |
| 6-1-94 | 0.032365801 | 0.000000002 | 0.000000000 | 0.060785960 |
| 7-1-94 | 0.011695268 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000034067 |
| 8-1-94 | 0.014864255 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000315735 |
| 9-1-94 | 0.029039418 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.026054016 |
| 10-1-94 | 0.025438346 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.011392631 |
| 11-1-94 | 0.026536310 | 0.000000002 | 0.000000000 | 0.016822293 |
| 12-1-94 | 0.043763092 | 0.000001485 | 0.000000000 | 0.262865906 |
| 1-1-95 | 0.022404463 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.004444782 |
| 2-1-95 | 0.019209675 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001043958 |
| 3-1-95 | 0.028541806 | 0.000000004 | 0.000000000 | 0.028640045 |
| 4-1-95 | 0.026736273 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.016327380 |
| 5-1-95 | 0.016010904 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000297059 |
| 6-1-95 | 0.030178114 | 0.000000005 | 0.000000000 | 0.038793290 |
| 7-1-95 | 0.038935126 | 0.000000042 | 0.000000000 | 0.134020382 |
| 8-1-95 | 0.017297121 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000723486 |
| 9-1-95 | 0.023899122 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.009604578 |
| 10-1-95 | 0.025245529 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.016124394 |
| 11-1-95 | 0.019593153 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.002213396 |
| 12-1-95 | 0.019694218 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.002750501 |
| 1-1-96 | 0.019770333 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.002385120 |
| 2-1-96 | 0.044404703 | 0.000000078 | 0.000000000 | 0.284757194 |
| 3-1-96 | 0.023362494 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.007772399 |
| 4-1-96 | 0.025392304 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.016923542 |
| 5-1-96 | 0.026112259 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.018516051 |
| 6-1-96 | 0.016058737 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000314973 |
| 7-1-96 | 0.021708900 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.004086545 |
| 8-1-96 | 0.075662298 | 0.000004399 | 0.000000000 | 0.863462449 |
| 9-1-96 | 0.018257389 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001078732 |
| 10-1-96 | 0.016033664 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000322798 |
| 11-1-96 | 0.017296707 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001054459 |
| 12-1-96 | 0.030815806 | 0.000000012 | 0.000000000 | 0.064354956 |
| 1-1-97 | 0.020478839 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.003053305 |
| 2-1-97 | 0.030248707 | 0.000000013 | 0.000000000 | 0.057424357 |
| 3-1-97 | 0.045309702 | 0.000000198 | 0.000000000 | 0.289269519 |
| 4-1-97 | 0.019013173 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001418610 |
| 5-1-97 | 0.022368764 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.006313910 |
| 6-1-97 | 0.026125865 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.018658119 |
| 7-1-97 | 0.017795254 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001055726 |
| 8-1-97 | 0.027106949 | 0.000000002 | 0.000000000 | 0.024976004 |
| 9-1-97 | 0.020844649 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.004306258 |
| 10-1-97 | 0.021086358 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.005248347 |
| 11-1-97 | 0.034469006 | 0.000000170 | 0.000000000 | 0.115727723 |
| 12-1-97 | 0.034008257 | 0.000000078 | 0.000000000 | 0.109217179 |
| 1-1-98 | 0.024396409 | 0.000000005 | 0.000000000 | 0.017485369 |
| 2-1-98 | 0.027054498 | 0.000000037 | 0.000000000 | 0.037721448 |
| 3-1-98 | 0.023884985 | 0.000000006 | 0.000000000 | 0.016496399 |
| 4-1-98 | 0.025329877 | 0.000000013 | 0.000000000 | 0.022396037 |
| 5-1-98 | 0.020576427 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.007190597 |
| 6-1-98 | 0.024990908 | 0.000000015 | 0.000000000 | 0.023219353 |
| 7-1-98 | 0.033153882 | 0.000000266 | 0.000000000 | 0.100567046 |
| 8-1-98 | 0.050808171 | 0.000001310 | 0.000000000 | 0.424995879 |
| 9-1-98 | 0.027176939 | 0.000000014 | 0.000000000 | 0.041255879 |
| 10-1-98 | 0.310572013 | 0.033535108 | 0.000000242 | 0.999749912 |
| 11-1-98 | 0.030389372 | 0.000000097 | 0.000000000 | 0.077125267 |
| 12-1-98 | 0.061959234 | 0.000018424 | 0.000000000 | 0.595168217 |
| 1-1-99 | 0.029725279 | 0.000000096 | 0.000000000 | 0.076075555 |
| 2-1-99 | 0.129021287 | 0.000576985 | 0.000000004 | 0.964906480 |
| 3-1-99 | 0.029846785 | 0.000000046 | 0.000000000 | 0.054808112 |
| 4-1-99 | 0.049744383 | 0.000002922 | 0.000000000 | 0.398556585 |
| 5-1-99 | 0.070115320 | 0.000025359 | 0.000000000 | 0.726945155 |
| 6-1-99 | 0.027588227 | 0.000000019 | 0.000000000 | 0.032971580 |
| 7-1-99 | 0.122903588 | 0.000329413 | 0.000000001 | 0.971460626 |
| 8-1-99 | 0.111681732 | 0.000209236 | 0.000000001 | 0.958109898 |
| 9-1-99 | 0.052024088 | 0.000001610 | 0.000000000 | 0.450928398 |
| 10-1-99 | 0.030051602 | 0.000000022 | 0.000000000 | 0.048597630 |
| 11-1-99 | 0.085891919 | 0.000060749 | 0.000000000 | 0.880406377 |
| 12-1-99 | 0.102386807 | 0.000135806 | 0.000000000 | 0.933123966 |
| 1-1-00 | 0.099739721 | 0.000187582 | 0.000000000 | 0.912363704 |
| 2-1-00 | 0.152431985 | 0.000972253 | 0.000000002 | 0.986483340 |
| 3-1-00 | 0.216492780 | 0.008057124 | 0.000000048 | 0.996122704 |
| 4-1-00 | 0.887868353 | 0.999943005 | 0.018051058 | 1.000000000 |
| 5-1-00 | 0.678080920 | 0.937948638 | 0.000134092 | 0.999999026 |
| 6-1-00 | 0.720339423 | 0.971721115 | 0.000244339 | 0.999999703 |
| 7-1-00 | 0.807490919 | 0.996897583 | 0.001935238 | 0.999999989 |
| 8-1-00 | 0.789186424 | 0.994870752 | 0.001423225 | 0.999999979 |
| 9-1-00 | 0.611397552 | 0.828273209 | 0.000100217 | 0.999998057 |
| 10-1-00 | 0.813043262 | 0.998203219 | 0.001264243 | 0.999999995 |
| 11-1-00 | 0.521446831 | 0.576572365 | 0.000021442 | 0.999988494 |
| 12-1-00 | 0.603240081 | 0.834727847 | 0.000048564 | 0.999997099 |
| 1-1-01 | 0.182770480 | 0.001977058 | 0.000000017 | 0.997136562 |
| 2-1-01 | 0.079158847 | 0.000011128 | 0.000000000 | 0.865212973 |
| 3-1-01 | 0.167059788 | 0.000480432 | 0.000000001 | 0.997356999 |
| 4-1-01 | 0.169816273 | 0.000301350 | 0.000000000 | 0.998181210 |
| 5-1-01 | 0.067838509 | 0.000000909 | 0.000000000 | 0.776028184 |
| 6-1-01 | 0.108793163 | 0.000012909 | 0.000000000 | 0.974416237 |
| 7-1-01 | 0.026444833 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.021546919 |
| 8-1-01 | 0.033095124 | 0.000000002 | 0.000000000 | 0.092220575 |
| 9-1-01 | 0.037762413 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.134724151 |
| 10-1-01 | 0.021984595 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.006137204 |
| 11-1-01 | 0.046453813 | 0.000000003 | 0.000000000 | 0.329893938 |
| 12-1-01 | 0.021443930 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.003797100 |
| 1-1-02 | 0.023355508 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.007567092 |
| 2-1-02 | 0.018921951 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001610220 |
| 3-1-02 | 0.028846877 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.030998098 |
| 4-1-02 | 0.019397140 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.002852756 |
| 5-1-02 | 0.015637952 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000362419 |
| 6-1-02 | 0.023380529 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.008933650 |
| 7-1-02 | 0.028123354 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.026659728 |
| 8-1-02 | 0.038093654 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.129596095 |
| 9-1-02 | 0.029220648 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.029850159 |
| 10-1-02 | 0.038100364 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.103516927 |
| 11-1-02 | 0.048606857 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.430593745 |
| 12-1-02 | 0.012544406 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000015082 |
| 1-1-03 | 0.016537356 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000181025 |
| 2-1-03 | 0.010954901 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000006774 |
| 3-1-03 | 0.013675492 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000042281 |
| 4-1-03 | 0.009276890 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000002490 |
| 5-1-03 | 0.007555416 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000001089 |
| 6-1-03 | 0.015591888 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000278477 |
| 7-1-03 | 0.040280773 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.151647676 |
| 8-1-03 | 0.013386530 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000015359 |
| 9-1-03 | 0.006292856 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000057 |
| 10-1-03 | 0.011941627 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000007705 |
| 11-1-03 | 0.012054820 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000013072 |
| 12-1-03 | 0.010603496 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000004703 |
| 1-1-04 | 0.010962782 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000008072 |
| 2-1-04 | 0.008638685 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000001797 |
| 3-1-04 | 0.010552968 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000009351 |
| 4-1-04 | 0.015944509 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000168719 |
| 5-1-04 | 0.012010650 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000012805 |
| 6-1-04 | 0.010765292 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000008871 |
| 7-1-04 | 0.012483209 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000045283 |
| 8-1-04 | 0.007829400 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000002729 |
| 9-1-04 | 0.010779535 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000042051 |
| 10-1-04 | 0.008811741 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000014317 |
| 11-1-04 | 0.014539276 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000648234 |
| 12-1-04 | 0.010857437 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000098470 |
| 1-1-05 | 0.009708232 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000093779 |
| 2-1-05 | 0.018933129 | 0.000000002 | 0.000000000 | 0.010390630 |
| 3-1-05 | 0.013371929 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001222327 |
| 4-1-05 | 0.011355588 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000444400 |
| 5-1-05 | 0.012396932 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.001004717 |
| 6-1-05 | 0.014867621 | 0.000000001 | 0.000000000 | 0.004254588 |
| 7-1-05 | 0.027218448 | 0.000000325 | 0.000000000 | 0.071320556 |
| 8-1-05 | 0.012180606 | 0.000000000 | 0.000000000 | 0.000648934 |
| 9-1-05 | 0.039101208 | 0.000002661 | 0.000000000 | 0.209000416 |
| 10-1-05 | 0.034468827 | 0.000001199 | 0.000000000 | 0.157051412 |
| 11-1-05 | 0.022200711 | 0.000000042 | 0.000000000 | 0.032398104 |
| 12-1-05 | 0.025399182 | 0.000000105 | 0.000000000 | 0.052095026 |
| 1-1-06 | 0.066606770 | 0.000038044 | 0.000000000 | 0.650791404 |
| 2-1-06 | 0.043809925 | 0.000004186 | 0.000000000 | 0.287808380 |
| 3-1-06 | 0.081081037 | 0.000096773 | 0.000000000 | 0.798027995 |
| 4-1-06 | 0.050663906 | 0.000003933 | 0.000000000 | 0.411748567 |
| 5-1-06 | 0.046420501 | 0.000003437 | 0.000000000 | 0.316816035 |
| 6-1-06 | 0.089301547 | 0.000121308 | 0.000000000 | 0.832185018 |
| 7-1-06 | 0.051538028 | 0.000003329 | 0.000000000 | 0.405639047 |
| 8-1-06 | 0.040816855 | 0.000000928 | 0.000000000 | 0.221507667 |
| 9-1-06 | 0.049056830 | 0.000003442 | 0.000000000 | 0.349924020 |
| 10-1-06 | 0.043368590 | 0.000000968 | 0.000000000 | 0.241246464 |
| 11-1-06 | 0.045567756 | 0.000000797 | 0.000000000 | 0.287645506 |
| 12-1-06 | 0.148673336 | 0.001302610 | 0.000000010 | 0.976358405 |
| 1-1-07 | 0.080832092 | 0.000056165 | 0.000000000 | 0.799170404 |
| 2-1-07 | 0.031438021 | 0.000000059 | 0.000000000 | 0.075027827 |
| 3-1-07 | 0.113310693 | 0.000235534 | 0.000000001 | 0.941305183 |